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DallanC 01-30-2020 11:30 AM

Corona Virus... who's worried?
 
1 Attachment(s)
I generally am not overly concerned with this, but there are some interesting things happening with this case that frankly, do not seem to jive with the story being put out. The more I've started following this, the more curious it gets.

I really do feel we will eventually see a world wide virus that will sweep the world much like the Spanish Flu. That flu infected 1/3 of the entire worlds population killing 50 million people. And that was in a time pre-airplane. So it traveled the world via ship. Its easy to image with todays much higher population world and quick travel via air travel, that a fatal virus could be truly terrifying and devastating.

The CDC and Government officials state Corona Virus is a little more serious than the regular flu, but nothing to really be worried about, so knowing that...

Curious things:

201 US "Citizens" were just evacuated from Wuhan via a special 747 to a military base where all passengers were put into immediate quarantine. Its interesting the plane had no passenger windows, so its not any form of a conventional airliner. It was escorted by fighter jets the entire flight. Sounds excessive.

Hmmm...

Someone snapped a picture of the co-pilot on landing... interesting getup for "just a flu virus"

https://utahwildlife.net/forum/attac...1&d=1580403667

Hmmm...

China announced they build a hospital in a day or two to handle the new patient load. If the Virus isn't that much more serious than the normal flu, why the need for new hospital constructions?

What makes me really curious, is the Chinese government posted pictures of a "new hospital" they constructed in Wuhan... but internet sleuths proved the hospital pictured, already existed as an apartment building, 600 miles away.

Why the lie?

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...hospital-image

Hmmmm...

They are however, RAPIDLY building other, additional hospitals, that is verified. Seems like alot of effort for just a "flu".

https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...-6-days-2020-1

Hmmmm...

Amazon retailers pretty much sold out of local surgical face masks yesterday. Any orders made (for retailers willing to even take orders), delivery is now March through May time frame.

Hmmmm...

Will be interesting to see how this plays out further. Researchers really still dont know the incubation period yet, and infected people are contagious without showing symptoms.

Again, I'm not overly concerned about this. But it is starting to affect the worlds economy, so consideration towards investments is always wise (anyone see the 6,000 people not allowed to disembark the cruise ship in Italy over Corona fears?). Fear seems to be affecting all kinds of different businesses. Quite a few of my investment stocks are down over this.

-DallanC

RandomElk16 01-30-2020 11:35 AM

So far 50x as many people have died from the flu this year in the US alone... It's hard to know the severity of it, but I am glad we are monitoring "the unknown".


Is the Swine Flu even around anymore?

DallanC 01-30-2020 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomElk16 (Post 2160449)
Is the Swine Flu even around anymore?

Swine flu is just the H1N1 Flu, or "influenza A" Virus, one of the most common flu's out there. Its just not as dangerous as initially thought.


-DallanC

RandomElk16 01-30-2020 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DallanC (Post 2160471)
Swine flu is just the H1N1 Flu, or "influenza A" Virus, one of the most common flu's out there. Its just not as dangerous as initially thought.


-DallanC

I was being sarcastic about it because the feelings then were very much like they are with this.

So does this become the next plague, or the next swine flu?

Vanilla 01-30-2020 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DallanC (Post 2160443)

Amazon retailers pretty much sold out of local surgical face masks yesterday. Any orders made (for retailers willing to even take orders), delivery is now March through May time frame.

I just did a quick search on Amazon. A box of 1,000 surgical masks can arrive at my house on Monday with free delivery. I wonder what the secondary market for these will be?

I got Influenza A in the spring of 2012. There was a 24 hour period where I have never been so miserable in my life and I felt like I wanted to die. Thank goodness it was only 24 hours! I don't know that I'm "worried" about coronavirus all that much, but something to certainly keep an eye out on. I don't drink Corona, so I should be fine anyway...

johnnycake 01-30-2020 02:56 PM

1 Attachment(s)
I think it will be interesting to watch it all play out. There is always a legitimate concern to treat a new virus that is fairly contagious and has a mortality rate that is higher than your average/common virus.

Yes, annual deaths from standard influenza infections are quite high (worldwide 290k-650k/year), but a lot of that is driven by the large number of infections that occur. When you look at the deaths per infection, seasonal influenza in the U.S. has a fatality rate of about 0.13%. By comparison, the strain of coronavirus cooking along right now has a mortality rate around 2%, but that number is a moving target as the number of people that have successfully recovered from the infection (110) is LOWER than the mortality figures as of right now (171). And those are the official numbers, primarily from China which has an excellent record for transparency /s. There are various claims from doctors/nurses in the Wuhan region claiming that over 90k cases are confirmed versus the official 8,100 in China + 98 in 18 other countries, and that the Chinese government is shuttling bodies directly to crematoriums without documentation/identification. My $0.02 is that the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of the conspiracies and the Chinese government's official position.

Do I think this will wreak mayhem on the scale of the Spanish Flu of way back when? Nope. But I think it will have a serious impact, probably along the lines of SARS in 2002-2003. It's already creating some wobbles in financial markets, and it'll be interesting to see that play out.

2full 01-30-2020 04:15 PM

I had the bottle version of Corona flu several times in my younger days .....LOL.
::mrgreen:

DallanC 01-30-2020 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanilla (Post 2160499)
I just did a quick search on Amazon. A box of 1,000 surgical masks can arrive at my house on Monday with free delivery. I wonder what the secondary market for these will be?

Wow... I just looked and you are right there are some on there now for immediate delivery. They are 4x to 5x the normal pricing. They used to be 20-25 cents a mask. Now it looks like they are around $1 per mask.

Last night someone was selling 100,000 masks on Amazon for $50,000... lol

Quote:

I got Influenza A in the spring of 2012. There was a 24 hour period where I have never been so miserable in my life and I felt like I wanted to die. Thank goodness it was only 24 hours! I don't know that I'm "worried" about coronavirus all that much, but something to certainly keep an eye out on. I don't drink Corona, so I should be fine anyway...
Sounds terrible. I haven't had the flu since I stopped getting flu shots 20'ish years ago. Ditto with my wife. My parents always get flu shots and one of them gets the flu almost every year.

Flu shots only target 4 or so of the most common types, and frequently the strain that affects people the most isn't covered by the common shot (because it takes 9 months to prep all the flu shots, they have to "guess" what the dominant strains will be almost a year ahead). So the shots are hit or miss in regards to effectiveness.

-DallanC

Steve G 01-30-2020 04:51 PM

My only concern is that I might miss an opportunity to buy on the Corona Virus dip.:sad:

DallanC 01-30-2020 05:07 PM

Oh its looking like you haven't missed it. I hope you dont own Levis stock right now lol.

Prestige Ameritech Ltd is the biggest surgical mask maker in the US.

BTW: 2 hours ago the WHO declared Corona Virus a global emergency. First human to human transmission was confirmed. Number of infections has doubled since yesterday now surpassing SARS. Infection rate models show 100,000 more infected in less than a week.

-DallanC


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