Corona Virus... who's worried? - Page 196 - Utah Wildlife Network

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Old 06-29-2020, 05:45 PM   #1951 (permalink)
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Just got home from bendover, they are being very strick on facemasks, if you have a drink or a smoke you have to pull the mask down for a drink or a puff then put right back in place.
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Old 07-03-2020, 10:50 PM   #1952 (permalink)
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Just traveled through four states in a week and it's interesting to observe different behaviors. The only unifying factor I could see was reliance on tourism equaled much greater observance of social distancing and mask wearing.

In Teton NP we got laughed at for wearing masks at one location while most wore them at another. That was while pushing an obviously high risk individual in a wheelchair. Women wearing masks compared to men was easily still 2 to 1; tourists from Asia and Europe seem to be more consistent.

The National Park Service is clearly slacking off as none of the 8 grizzlies we saw were wearing masks or socially distancing, including a group of 4 in front of our RV.

It's extremely hard to travel and not enter businesses but it's possible to keep it to a minimum. I feel for tourist towns but it could be another year before they see households like ours returning to traditional use.
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Old 07-03-2020, 11:50 PM   #1953 (permalink)
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I was just in Catalina for a week last week, took my dads new 51’ Maritimo, fished and hangout. people don’t give a sh!t out there, especially in Huntington.

Caught a sh!it load of whitefish, kelp bass and sheepshead. Yellowfin are running hard, didn’t target them though, just fished from the mooring really.

Sorry, turned this into a fishing report 😂
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Old 07-06-2020, 04:09 PM   #1954 (permalink)
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Catheder,

Have you seen this twitter thread floating around?

https://twitters.com/mbeckett/status...50652160634880

Its making the circuit on my liberal friends' pages and something seems off about it to me. I'll be honest that I never dove into the theory of statistics enough to deal with all of it paradoxes but the author's claims don't seem to match the reality to me. Do you have thoughts?

At a minimum it seems to me people keep wanting to change the narrative and framework to suit their worldview. I don't see the paradox nor the flaw in looking at national trends, ie what he calls "erroneous". I think we can look at national trends to understand federal and interstate efforts as well as state and county level data to understand the more granular picture. Right now it seems like my more liberal friends don't want to see the possibility that the infection rate and mortality rate are diverging nationally even if there are states with outbreaks where that isn't happening.

But maybe I am missing something. I just struggle with my liberal friends on this one as it seems we are now discarding the national framework when it doesn't support their perspective. I'm not overly optimistic that the trend will last but at a minimum it seems the lag between infection rates and fatalities is increasing which seems like a positive outcome, even if temporary. I don't draw much meaning other than the lag but it would be awesome if our summer spike doesn't equate to a monstrous death toll like the author seems to be predicting (not consistent with the models I see).

What am I missing?
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Old 07-06-2020, 07:04 PM   #1955 (permalink)
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Sorry, my work computer security isn't letting me look at the link. Could you paraphrase it for me?

I tend to avoid social media as much as possible, but my wifes inbox is filled daily with all manner of crazy stuff. Since her family is from the "435", it is mostly far out stuff from the right, but I know liberals are not immune to believing and promulgating conspiracy theories and fringe ideas too.
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Old 07-06-2020, 07:38 PM   #1956 (permalink)
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A gentleman named Miles Beckett is claiming its a "false conclusion" to claim that deaths are decreasing while cases are increasing because of a statistical issue called "Simpson's Paradox" (I'm not going to try to summarize that one as I'll botch it). Basically he's claiming we are improperly pooling data and end up with "erroneous" results.

He "supports" his claim loosely by highlighting data from AZ and TX but it appears more likely to support a situation of an "average hiding heterogeneity". He goes onto to claim we'll see hundreds of thousands of deaths in the next 8 weeks as we experience "dozens of NYCs".

It doesn't seem like a conspiracy theory so much as a misapplication of the paradox. But its gone viral fast which always raises red flags for me, as I tend to look at social media posts with similar skepticism. Not to mention his predictions for now until Oct (he later amended his forecast to three months) are off the charts for even generally pessimistic models like IHME.

You might be able to bypass the wall on Twitter by using the threader app link. Its an interesting situation to consider even if its just a form of confirmation bias on his part. I very well could be wrong in my skepticism and criticism since this level of statistical theory is new to me:

https://threader.app/thread/1278750652160634880

PS....I think his #5 is accurate and better explained by an "average hiding heterogenity", as stated above. I just don't think looking at national data is erroneous or problematic as he claims.

Last edited by backcountry; 07-06-2020 at 07:50 PM.
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Old 07-06-2020, 10:24 PM   #1957 (permalink)
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Ok, the second link worked, although I was only able to infer what was on most of his "list of nine".

I just worked a 12 hour day and my mind is kind of mushy right now, but I have read this line of thought recently and believe the overall argument has merit.

Here is another article on the subject I just read tonight, trying to wind down.

Well, it won't let me put in this link. But go on Vox and read the coronavirus article posted today.

Basically, the gist of a lot of this is that, as has been discussed here before, hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators and the areas where the exponential growth is occurring hasn't been into their growth phase long enough to start seeing the deaths in high numbers and the areas where previous high deaths were happening are better now, artificially depressing the numbers. If the theory holds, things will start climbing in a week or two. It does appear that hospitalizations have increased in the hotspots like Texas and Arizona in such a way that his hypothesis is not yet disproven. Time will tell.

One interesting thing about Utah's stats is that our numbers went to crap a bit over 2 weeks ago, but out hospitalizations have been surprisingly stable. (knock on wood)

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/
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Old 07-07-2020, 09:37 AM   #1958 (permalink)
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Oh yeah, I have no doubt AZ and TX are about to see fatalities grow. I think the best case scenario is the lag time between infection and fatality has grown a bit (less pressure on hospitals in these new outbreaks, some treatment, average age infected, etc). But even the best case still means that many infections will eventually affect high risk populations, just a matter of time given how porous such communities are with our behavior. I give it at most 2 weeks before average age of infection starts to creep back up.

It will be interesting to see if we ever experience another NYC like outbreak, fatality wise. I hope we've learned some lessons, like don't send infected older citizens back to their long term care facilities mid-infection. If we can supress spread in those facilities we could reduce fatalities by 25% or greater. That's not a shabby goal.

Still don't see how it's a Simpson's Paradox but I get the spirit of most of his posts, ie we shouldn't be complacent with current national trends given what's happening in discrete locals. I think recognizing how this is a disease affecting hundreds, if not thousands, of communities unevenly across the US is a prudent framework for moving forward.

Per Utah... can't say i Iove our infection trends but something less severe is happening here. Not sure exactly what but I'll find a little hope in the stats you talk about while they last and rejoice next spring if they are sustained.

Last edited by backcountry; 07-07-2020 at 09:45 AM.
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Old 07-07-2020, 10:03 AM   #1959 (permalink)
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Just finished Vox article. I knew it was bad in AZ and TX but had no clue they were diverting patients in such drastic ways already. Frightening.

All a little too close to home as my sister and BIL are about to fly to AZ for a job interview and have my high risk parents babysit.

Wild, difficult times.
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Old 07-07-2020, 10:58 AM   #1960 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by backcountry View Post
At a minimum it seems to me people keep wanting to change the narrative and framework to suit their worldview.


...discarding the national framework when it doesn't support their perspective.
These two sentences are WAY too true with WAY too many things now days.

Happens from your neighbor, all the way up to congress and the president.
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