Originally Posted by Zach1987
Well when you have 8 points for general deer I would say itís fairly safe to say we will draw. Maybe you should read up about draw odds
Iíd be willing to bet I know how to read and interpret draw odds better than you do, but thatís another topic for another day.
Let me tell you a little story about the 2020 draw. My dad, who was exiting the dedicated program from the year previous, really wanted to draw another deer tag. The unit of his choosing, would take 2 DH points based off previous years draw odds, to be successful in the draw. Me, planning for these scenarios in the future has been doing thing to ensure that when he, we, I or other family members want tags, we can draw them. When he applied, his point pool to draw said permit was with 4 preference points. Double what as ďguaranteedĒ to draw that tag over the last 5 years. Well draw results came out, and guess what! UNSUCCESSFUL! how could that be? Well, turns out that there were major tag cuts for the unit and NO tags, ZERO!, were issued for dedicated that year for that unit. I was sure he would draw. But didnít.
So next time you go piping off on your 2nd post ever, about how you are sure youíll draw tags, 3 months before the results are posted, and before you start telling me to learn to read draw odds, just remember. This whole thing is completely out of your hands after you submit your application. On a year like this, with deer already in rough shape headed into the winter, a drought compounding on top of another one, no feed for wintering animals and a few other elements im sure you havenít thought of, you have zero idea what theyíre gonna do with permit numbers. Yeah, 8 should be enough. But I certainly wouldnít plan on ANYTHING until you have that email telling you that you drew a tag.