Another Expo Thread

[#1DEER 1-I]

Originally Posted by taxidermist

Could you imagine the odds of drawing ANY tag this year, with not having to validate in person?


If anyone has the list of successful draw results for the last five years, it would be interesting to see just how many of the same folks draw this year. Or, multiple permits since the birth of the Expo. Then see how/if they are affiliated with SFW, or donate $$$.

A couple weeks ago I was told their applications were down quite bit. Now that may have changed as the deadline approached.

[taxidermist]

I just don't see the Expo bringing in near the $$ it has in the past with not having the entrance fee to walk into the exhibit hall. I'm sure the auction of prime tags is what brings in the $$ though.

[elkfromabove]

Originally Posted by middlefork

I seem to remember #elkfromabove addressed this very question a year or two ago. I tried the search function but didn't find it. I know he found some but not a lot.

One thing about it there is no shortage of conspiracy theories on these sites. People keep complaining but they still keep participating. When it no longer makes money maybe it will end.

Since 2007 when the draw started, there have been 240 repeat winners, but some of those drew more than one per year. However, a few years ago, the DWR eliminated the more than one per year rule, and now we only get about 5 or 6 repeaters because if they draw more than one, they have to choose which one they want and the other one is given to the second person in line. Last year (2020) there were 6 repeaters!

If things go as they have in the past, the draw should take place tomorrow at 9:00 am at the DWR State Office on the corner of Redwood Rd and North Temple in Salt Lake City, and the public is invited. However, the Covid issue may make it otherwise. In any case, we should have the results by Wed. and I'll update my list by Fri. or Sat. Stay tuned!

[BigT]

Originally Posted by RandomElk16

This guy I have seen on the mountain a few times has slammed a few giant elk.. I was never sure if he was paying for tags or what.

Turns out he has gotten FOUR expo elk tags.


So, it happens. Just not to me lol.

Statistically speaking, this shouldn't be possible.. But good for that dude. I have a friend that's pulled an elk tag, and a antelope tag from the expo. He isn't a part of SFW, but he did work for Hoyt Archery but he was not the owner. He was an engineer. Still made me think if this was a coincidence or not.

[elkfromabove]

Originally Posted by BigT

Statistically speaking, this shouldn't be possible.. But good for that dude. I have a friend that's pulled an elk tag, and a antelope tag from the expo. He isn't a part of SFW, but he did work for Hoyt Archery but he was not the owner. He was an engineer. Still made me think if this was a coincidence or not.

And so the Expo rumors start again .

According to the DWR records, there are 5 people that have pulled 3 Expo elk tags in the 14 years the Expo has been going, but NOBODY has pulled 4!

AND, just like the regular draw, each application gets a number so the computer doesn't know who's application it is when it picks the random numbers. The reason for the repeats is the draw is iRANDOM and most of the repeaters apply for most of the tags they are allowed, especially the SFW members. (I think they feel an obligation to apply because they know where the money is going.)

In any case, we'll probably have 5 or 6 repeaters again this year and some eyebrows will probably be raised again this year! Stay tuned!

[Vanilla]

Assuming we had to keep the expo draw, I wish the expo draw would use the same company in Fallon that the state uses. That would be enough for me to believe that random truly meant random. I’m not saying I believe there is a conspiracy and this dude writes code in his basement to benefit certain people. But I’m also not saying he doesn’t. And therein lies one of the issues surrounding the whole deal. One of the many...

[MooseMeat]

It’s hard to believe the $FW draw is 100% random, legit, honest and accurate, when they are adamant on continuing to keep doing business with the company conducting the draw and there is repeated successful applicants, who coincidentally have a recognizable name within the hunting industry and have ties to $FW and other conservation groups. It’s also hard to believe that those same people can successfully draw randomly with odds that are beyond terrible in the expo draw, and you don’t seem to see the same kind of random luck/success in the normal big game draw. Sure lightning strikes twice for a dude every now and then in the state draw and he pulls a couple random LE tags throughout his lifetime, but very very very rarely are they doing it consecutive years on high value tags and units. It just seems too coincidental for all the stars to align perfectly for these people in the expo draw with, in theory, worse draw odds than the state draws, but the same scenario doesn’t happen this often with guys in the state draws, that have better odds, according to the yearly state published results.

But in reality it probably is legit and accurate. People who hate $FW, the expo and have negative opinions on the subject will always be critical and look for anything to be upset about and call bullchit on. I’m one of them. Speaking of which, Mr. Jon Bair hasn’t pulled a tag for a few years. He’s about due for another lucky streak. Maybe this will be his year for a moose or Henry’s deer tag.

[Airborne]

I still remember the thread on Monster Muleys where folks were talking about how it's rigged and I believe it was Mr Bair who said that if it was rigged he would draw a sheep tag and then BAM, he draws a sheep tag that year. That was a classic!

[RandomElk16]

Originally Posted by elkfromabove

And so the Expo rumors start again .

According to the DWR records, there are 5 people that have pulled 3 Expo elk tags in the 14 years the Expo has been going, but NOBODY has pulled 4!

AND, just like the regular draw, each application gets a number so the computer doesn't know who's application it is when it picks the random numbers. The reason for the repeats is the draw is iRANDOM and most of the repeaters apply for most of the tags they are allowed, especially the SFW members. (I think they feel an obligation to apply because they know where the money is going.)

In any case, we'll probably have 5 or 6 repeaters again this year and some eyebrows will probably be raised again this year! Stay tuned!

Maybe one of those years he was a double draw, but I am sure he said four and I know for a fact that he has gone on 3 of those hunts.

I have BIG conspiracies about the draw, and he doesn't fit them. He is just a beer drinking redneck frankly.

Not like the celebs and "associates" who draw OIAL and multi tags.

[RandomElk16]

I will add.. in terms of legit:

1. Knowing it's a dude in his basement running ONLY this draw is a big part of many folks concerns
2. When the board DOCKED RMEF points for recommending the SAME company they use for our regular draw, it increased my concerns.


Overall I know regular joes draw it. Maybe all the weird things are just dumb luck... but the reasons people question the validity shouldn't exist. When half the board is excused for the awarding vote, when the org that wants to use the same draw system and give 100% of the money to the state doesn't stand a chance and the one who does the least wins, when the rfp is changed AFTER RMEF proposal is in(and then includes language like demonstrated they can "run a UTAH" expo), when the board members of the governing body can even apply... Those are all things that raise questions.

Many concerns could be put at ease with a few small tweaks. The unwillingness to make those is why I will never feel as confident as I could and should.


EDIT: I am also FAR MORE concerned with what the millions are spent on then I am with the seemingly shady draw.