Originally Posted by Isuckathunting
I'm really curious to see how this works out. Just over 4000 residents put in for 33 cow moose tags last year. Majority had 5 points or less. I'll be interested to see how many bail out of that and choose the ewe hunt. Any guesses on how many will put in for each? I'm thinking it has to be around 2500 in each, maybe a touch more in the moose pool as people are attached to their points.
I'm kind of a nerd and like to download all the draw statistics. For me, this one will be fun to look at later. That being said, I have no idea what to do for myself, tough choice.
Interesting question. I'll take a stab at it.
From last year's data (residents only):
- 33,202 hunters applied for or bought points for bull moose.
- 6,745 hunters applied for or bought points for cow moose.
So, we have about 20% as much interest in the cows as we do in the bulls. Not sure how much that relates to the question, but something to keep in mind. There's not going to be nearly as much interest in the ewe tags as there is in the ram tags.
Looking at last year's sheep data (residents only):
- 9,764 hunters applied for or bought points for desert sheep
- 8,257 hunters applied for our bought points for rocky mountain sheep
Comparing the total of 18,021 sheep ram applicants to the 33,202 bull moose applicants shows that there's about 54% as much interest in sheep hunting as there is in moose hunting in Utah.
That being the case, I doubt it's an even split between ewe and and cow moose applicants.
I think there will be other factors that keep people in the moose pool, including:
- People who already have a lot of cow moose points
- People who feel more physically up to moose hunting than sheep hunting
- People who are more familiar with moose hunting/habitat than sheep hunting/habitat
- The fact that there have consistently been more cow moose tags offered in the past, and probably will be offered more in the future
- The quality/quantity of moose meat compared to sheep meat
- The remoteness of the Newfoundland sheep unit
All that being said, my projection is as follows:
800 applicants for ewe tags
700 applicants for ewe points
3500 applicants for cow moose tags
2400 applicants for cow moose points
If I remember, I'll bump this thread when the odds are released, and we'll see how I did.
I honestly think the cow moose pool will give better odds in the long run, because there will most likely be a lot more tags offered over the years. I'm just jumping over because my moose points are few enough to be meaningless, I think sheep hunting is way more fun, and I can always jump back to moose during years when there are no sheep tags offered.
Lots of compelling reasons to stick with the moose, though (especially if a lot of people do bail on the points pool).