# 2017 Big Game Drawing Stats are Up



## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2017/17_big_game_odds_report.pdf

Highlights:

1) Some great odds on bison:

- 1:20 on Henry Mtns early cow hunt
- 1:13 on Book Cliffs, Wild Horse Bench hunter's choice hunt
- 1:12 on Henry Mtns late cow hunt
- 1:10 on Book Cliffs cow hunt

(Numbers like that really makes me question my OIAL choice of desert sheep...)

On the flipside, odds for Henry's bull tags got worse. I was surprised to see odds of 1:49 on the Henry's archery tags. It took 19 points to get in the running for bonus tags.

2) Odds of 1:86 for the archery goat tags. The bonus tag went to someone with 13 points.

3) New Henry's management buck deer tags had these odds:

- Rifle - 1:119 (16 points for bonus tags)
- Archery - 1:19 (12 points)
- Muzzleloader - 1:35 (14 points)

4) And this year's luckiest winner:

*Antelope Island deer tag with 0 points.*

Unbelievable.... when I get home from work I'll probably calculate exactly what the applicant's probability of drawing was. Off the top of my head it looks like it might be worse than 1:3000.

Happy number crunching! Post up if you notice something interesting.


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

There's also a really cool preference point summary doc:

https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2017/17_point_summary.pdf


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

Don't know what the odds were but we drew 1 CWMU antlerless elk tag with 0 points.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I'm sure I will look at these eventually, but I'm kind of avoiding it right now. I'm still psychologically scarred from the fact that my 20 points going into next year won't get me even close to what I want.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Never mind. I got sucked in, and now I'm officially depressed.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

Clarq said:


> I was surprised to see odds of 1:49 on the Henry's archery tags. It took 19 points to get in the running for bonus tags.


Wow, that is surprising. With 20+ points, I'd just assume apply for a rifle tag. I speculated it would take around 12-13 points for the bonus pool, I was way off.

It'll be interesting to see the harvest statistics for this hunt.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

Clarq said:


> https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2017/17_big_game_odds_report.pdf
> 
> Highlights:
> 
> ...


Those _are_ great bison odds. Looks like I did well with 13 points on Wild Horse Bench. I'm a bit nervous for the hunt with the increase in tags and hunting pressure. Hoping they don't get pushed back onto the reservation.

The desert sheep odds are tough, but it's an incredible, unique hunt, it'll be worth it when you draw. I'm strongly considering putting in for desert sheep next year (with zero points), but we'll see how it plays out for my brother this year. Heading back down this weekend, hoping to find a sportsman-tag-worthy ram.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

One other thought. Aren't the actual odds better than the published odds since those that draw LE tags are not included in the OIAL draw? For example, if several people drew LE elk or deer tags, and were pulled from the bison draw. Anyone know if the published odds include all applicants, or all applicants minus those that drew LE tags?


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

brisket said:


> One other thought. Aren't the actual odds better than the published odds since those that draw LE tags are not included in the OIAL draw? For example, if several people drew LE elk or deer tags, and were pulled from the bison draw. Anyone know if the published odds include all applicants, or all applicants minus those that drew LE tags?


The published odds include ALL applicants, so the actual person against person odds are probably better than those published and that's the good news.

The bad news is that the person against person odds are false odds. You're actually competing points against points. In other words, if you have 0 points going into the draw, you'll have only one chance per your application to draw the lowest number, but each person at the top could have 23 chances to draw the lowest number. If there were 3 people on top, they would have a total of *69 chances while you still only have 1. Those odds are not 1 in 4, but 1 in *69. And that doesn't even count the applicants in between which could bring those true odds into the thousands. Whoopee!

I'll post this and figure out the Antelope Island deer and bison odds later. It'll take a while!

Edited: *The total number of chances the top group has depends on how many of them drew the 50/50 tags, but you get the point I'm trying to make. It's not you against everyone else in your group, it's your points against everyone else's points, even those outside your group.

Edited #2: Duh! While working out the Antelope Island bison odds it dawned on me that those at the top half of the point stack actually have better odds than those posted by the DWR, while those on the bottom half have worse odds, with the posted odds somewhere in the middle. So, I guess it's good news OR bad news depending on where you are in the stack! And the higher you are the better the odds, while the lower you are the worse the odds. Now, having pointed all of that out, the bottom line is: SOMEBODY'S GONNA GO HUNTING!!!


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

True, the supply:demand ratio isn't useful at all for calculating your odds of drawing. I do think it's an interesting benchmark and an easy basis for comparison, though. The antelope island deer draw this year makes for a good example. 

If you look at supply:demand, then your ratio is 1:1,633.

If you look at points, then the people with max points (21) had a 1:487 chance of drawing.

The person who drew with 0 points had a 1:10,732 chance of drawing. Absolutely ridiculous...


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

brisket said:


> Those _are_ great bison odds. Looks like I did well with 13 points on Wild Horse Bench. I'm a bit nervous for the hunt with the increase in tags and hunting pressure. Hoping they don't get pushed back onto the reservation.


With 13 points, I get that your probability of a draw was 8.5%, or about 1:12. I'd say you had some good luck. I think it will be a very interesting hunt. I'm sure you know we all expect detailed reports with pictures. 

My cousin had a Book Cliffs bison tag last year (not the Wild Horse Bench tag, though) and had a blast. Unfortunately, school kept me away from that trip. :x You'll have a great time.



brisket said:


> The desert sheep odds are tough, but it's an incredible, unique hunt, it'll be worth it when you draw. I'm strongly considering putting in for desert sheep next year (with zero points), but we'll see how it plays out for my brother this year. Heading back down this weekend, hoping to find a sportsman-tag-worthy ram.


Although those bison odds are tantalizing, I'm sticking with desert sheep. I plan on applying for 40+ more years, so I figure my chances of drawing over that time are good enough that it's worth it to try. Incredible animals, those desert bighorns.


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

So, if I'm reading the pref point summary right, then even with the draw and lose your points there are 81,401 residents with 1 point and 17,092 non residents with one point. 

It may be unlikely to draw in consecutive years in the near future with deer.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

This is cool:

https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2017/17_youth_general_deer.pdf

Finally we have some statistics on the youth draw.


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## Slayer (Feb 3, 2013)

Next year's general season deer draw odds will be completely different than this years. I expect odds to improve for those with 0-2 points, since everyone burned thier points this year.


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

Slayer said:


> Next year's general season deer draw odds will be completely different than this years. I expect odds to improve for those with 0-2 points, since everyone burned thier points this year.


 6,000 residents will have 3 points or better going into the GS deer draw next year.

100,000 residents will have 2 points or less.

7,500 non residents will have 3 points or better going into the GS deer draw next year.

23,000 non residents will have 2 points or less.

57,834 resident tags were given and 9,938 non resident tags were given.

492 dedicated resident tags were given and 61 non resident dedicated tags were given.

3,614 Lifetime license tags were given and 321 non resident lifetime license tags were given.

13,760 resident youth tags were given and 270 youth tags were given

Say the tag numbers stay the same and 6,000 people with more than two points and the 22,000 people with two points all draw. That would mean the only 29,000 of the 81,000 people would draw. Which leaves you 52,000 unsuccessful apps that get a point. Then add in the 57,000 people that drew this year that will not draw. 109k with two or one point(s) going into the following year.

You take the 52,000 k with 2 points and then only 5k of the 57k with 1 point. Then repeat the cycle.

It is a very slim change at hunting deer every year, a small chance at hunting deer every other year and a great chance at hunting deer every third year.

This will lead me to conclude that those having 0 points will have to be really selective on the units that they apply for, because the numbers are not in their favor.

Granted, many of the people that put in - just put in for a few select units.

Also, with less than 6% knowingly using the loophole or un-knowningly using the loophole this new system does not change the fact that the demand for the hunt outweighs the supply. As more hunters enter the system, then the years between deer hunts will stretch farther and farther out.


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

Where are you getting your numbers Muscle? I can't reproduce the same. I get about 3K with three points or better next year. And I don't come anywhere close to 81,401 with 1 point. I see 39,669 (66,405 - 26736) unsuccessful applicants in GS Deer draw that entered this year with zero, plus 2,844 with zero that purchased a preference point. That's only 42.5K, not 81,401. Even if I assume a typo and you meant "1 or more points", I still don't come close to 81,401.

Still, there are going to be in the neighborhood of 30K applicants with 1 point next year (looking at year over year, about 1/5-1/4 of those with zero don't apply the following year with their 1 point). That's about on par with what has occurred each of the last couple years. I don't think there is going to be one bit of difference in next year's draw over the last several, except for some slight difference at the higher point pools (and of course thousand lakes not getting bombarded with numerous low-point applicants - but point creep is definitely alive and well for the unit).


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

Charina said:


> Where are you getting your numbers Muscle? I can't reproduce the same. I get about 3K with three points or better next year. And I don't come anywhere close to 81,401 with 1 point. I see 39,669 (66,405 - 26736) unsuccessful applicants in GS Deer draw that entered this year with zero, plus 2,844 with zero that purchased a preference point. That's only 42.5K, not 81,401. Even if I assume a typo and you meant "1 or more points", I still don't come close to 81,401.
> 
> Still, there are going to be in the neighborhood of 30K applicants with 1 point next year (looking at year over year, about 1/5-1/4 of those with zero don't apply the following year with their 1 point). That's about on par with what has occurred each of the last couple years. I don't think there is going to be one bit of difference in next year's draw over the last several, except for some slight difference at the higher point pools (and of course thousand lakes not getting bombarded with numerous low-point applicants - but point creep is definitely alive and well for the unit).


 The numbers came from here:

https://wildlife.utah.gov/big-game-drawing-odds-and-point-reports.html

The preference point summary contains the 81 k number.


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

I see where you are getting that now. From the "Preference point summary by residency and species" report. 

I could be wrong (might be the first time, or second, I forget :mrgreen, but I don't think that is what you want to be using in trying to predict the next year. It does add value in providing information in "potential" that exists out there, but I don't think it's as useful as looking at several years of "general-season deer preference point . . . " reports. You will note in there that each of the several last years somewhere around 30K applicants with 1 point have applied for GS deer permits. (and you can also note there is somewhere around 40K unsucessful 0 point applicants, very similar to prior years, meaning that next year's crop of 1 pt applicants would be about the same as this year.)

Where I think the 81K comes from is not only active applicants, but the countless (several thousand each of the last couple years) that apply with 0 points, but then don't apply the next year with 1 point. It's an accumulation of everyone that has 1 point. Sure, everyone could decide to apply next year, but will they? Actual application data doesn't support that they will. I wonder how many are unable to hunt now. How many might even be dead? Does the DWR scrub their data against the SS death rolls to remove applicants that have deceased? I kind of doubt it.


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## stillhunterman (Feb 15, 2009)

I don't much care for doing math, and reading about it makes my head hurt even more...


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

stillhunterman said:


> I don't much care for doing math, and reading about it makes my head hurt even more...


That is why we have CPA's on the forum for.


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## Thomas11 (May 19, 2017)

So I drew the nebo muzzy elk tag. Last year there were like 13NR applicants. This yr it looks there were 33. I had 3pts and pretty excited about this tag! If anyone has any advice on the unit I'm all ears. I have several spots I've been looking at but would love any local knowledge as well. Thanks!


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

Charina said:


> I see where you are getting that now. From the "Preference point summary by residency and species" report.
> 
> I could be wrong (might be the first time, or second, I forget :mrgreen, but I don't think that is what you want to be using in trying to predict the next year. It does add value in providing information in "potential" that exists out there, but I don't think it's as useful as looking at several years of "general-season deer preference point . . . " reports. You will note in there that each of the several last years somewhere around 30K applicants with 1 point have applied for GS deer permits. (and you can also note there is somewhere around 40K unsucessful 0 point applicants, very similar to prior years, meaning that next year's crop of 1 pt applicants would be about the same as this year.)
> 
> Where I think the 81K comes from is not only active applicants, but the countless (several thousand each of the last couple years) that apply with 0 points, but then don't apply the next year with 1 point. It's an accumulation of everyone that has 1 point. Sure, everyone could decide to apply next year, but will they? Actual application data doesn't support that they will. I wonder how many are unable to hunt now. How many might even be dead? Does the DWR scrub their data against the SS death rolls to remove applicants that have deceased? I kind of doubt it.


That's a fair point

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

So as I went through the numbers I noticed a significant jump in the number of first time applicants for all species, both resident and non-resident... incredible percent increases in the number of applicants with 0 points this year across the board.

I have the resident numbers right off hand:
+36% bison
+14% deer
+43% desert bighorn
+16% elk
+17% moose
+23% mountain goat
+27% pronghorn
+10% rocky mountain bighorn


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> So as I went through the numbers I noticed a significant jump in the number of first time applicants for all species, both resident and non-resident... incredible percent increases in the number of applicants with 0 points this year across the board.
> 
> I have the resident numbers right off hand:
> +36% bison
> ...


Oy...

Does this mean you have the 2018 odds finished? :grin:


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> derekp1999 said:
> 
> 
> > So as I went through the numbers I noticed a significant jump in the number of first time applicants for all species, both resident and non-resident... incredible percent increases in the number of applicants with 0 points this year across the board.
> ...


Close... probably another day or two. I just need to do the LE and general deer tabs.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

derekp1999 said:


> So as I went through the numbers I noticed a significant jump in the number of first time applicants for all species, both resident and non-resident... incredible percent increases in the number of applicants with 0 points this year across the board.


This is the first year 12 and 13 year olds could apply for LE and OIAL hunts, as the law change went into effect for the 2017 draw. Last year the minimum age was 14.

I'm sure this is where the big increase in applicants with zero points came from.


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## Slayer (Feb 3, 2013)

Is there a way to find out what GS Deer tags/ units were drawn as a 2nd through 5th choice?

Did any of you draw your 2nd- 5th choice tag?


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

brisket said:


> This is the first year 12 and 13 year olds could apply for LE and OIAL hunts, as the law change went into effect for the 2017 draw. Last year the minimum age was 14.
> 
> I'm sure this is where the big increase in applicants with zero points came from.


I had forgotten about that, good point... well it's pretty clear that there are a bunch of 12 & 13 year old kid's dads who want to go after bison and desert bighorn.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

derekp1999 said:


> I had forgotten about that, good point... well it's pretty clear that there are a bunch of 12 & 13 year old kid's dads who want to go after bison and desert bighorn.


I'm one of those dads. My son turned 14 this year so he had zero points going in for bison. Wish he would have been able to put in the last two years.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

brisket said:


> I'm one of those dads. My son turned 14 this year so he had zero points going in for bison. Wish he would have been able to put in the last two years.


My oldest son is 10 & we have... errr, he has... already decided bison is what he wants to do so I'll... errr, he'll... be joining you in that pool while I'm stuck waist deep in a pile of moose points.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

derekp1999 said:


> My oldest son is 10 & we have... errr, he has... already decided bison is what he wants to do so I'll... errr, he'll... be joining you in that pool while I'm stuck waist deep in a pile of moose points.


Haha! I see how it is...

I was hoping my son would choose desert sheep, but he wanted bison.


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## wixxman (Jul 23, 2008)

I have looked all thru the draw results trying to find Mt Dutton Archery Dear results. I think it is hunt number 1511 what I found in the one pdf had nothing for non resident. Put for point this year as I drew last year, trying to figure if I have a chance of drawing next year. We had one of our guys put in with 1 point this year and drew?


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2017/17_general_deer.pdf

There's a different document for general season deer.


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