# 2020-21 Snowpack



## backcountry

Only 2.5 months into water year but the grimness is building on an epically dry summer. 

At least it's not also wicked above average temperatures, yet, like NOAA is forecasting. Dang La Nina!


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## colorcountrygunner

This is sad. Holy hell I'm hoping for some wet weather this winter and the following spring/summer. Not only was last summer and spring ridiculously dry but the previous winter also had very little snow. The land was so scorched and parched during my archery hunt last year. I can't imagine what 2 years in a row of this crap will be like if we don't get some wet weather!


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## backcountry

And despite the recent snow the percentages have actual gotten worse. SW Utah could be in a for a world of hurt if this doesn't turn around. 

And I have to say it every year....the rolling average gets dumbed down every year by these drought figures. That 20% we are currently at in SW Utah is even more depressing with that in mind. Forecasts calling for temps warmer then 45F on the hill the next 2 days 😳


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## 2full

I'm pretty sure I can still get a 4 wheeler into my place on Cedar mountain, if not the truck. 
That is NOT a good thing. I would like to drop my gate though. 
I'll maybe give it a shot on Wednesday, worth a try. :mrgreen:


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## taxidermist

I foresee many boats on KSL for sale this spring.


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## backcountry

taxidermist said:


> I foresee many boats on KSL for sale this spring.


Hmm, might have to keep my eye out. My soon to be daughter won't fit on my little pontoon. Yes, I think that will be a great excuse.


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## PBH

backcountry said:


> And I have to say it every year....the rolling average gets dumbed down every year by these drought figures. That 20% we are currently at in SW Utah is even more depressing with that in mind.


It wasn't that long ago that we launched my brother's boat from the concrete ramp at Hite, and spent a day trolling just upstream from the confluence of the Dirty Devil and the Colorado River. We did this without a sonar, and very little fear of beaching ourselves. The fishing was great.

Today, the concrete ramp is high and dry. You have to go another 5 miles downstream on the Colorado before you even hit the lake. It's a 40 mile boat road from Bullfrog just to get there.

Our water situation is scary. If we don't start getting storms, which it doesn't look like we will this winter, it's going to be a rough summer. Low water levels and high summer temps will spell problems. All those toxic algae blooms will be even worse.

It might be time for all of us to start praying for snow. Heck, we may even need to start fasting. That includes those of you who are not believers. I mean, what's to lose? Just water...


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## backcountry

That turn around on Lake Powell was fast this time. I launched a sea kayak on the Colorado from the Dirty Devil takeout years ago and had many miles of current and then flotsam before the lake. But it took ages to slowly drop to that level. The suddenness of this change is frightening.

I'm truly concerned for snow and water here. There are a few reasons for us to leave the area and water is in the top 3. I'm not worried for the next decade but I'm not sure about retirement here. 

I can no longer do naked snow dances for Ullr according to my probation. Evidently it's not okay to do that in your front yard with a bonfire while playing Soundgarden backwards. I'm so confused at it's just a song about santa.

Y'all are on your own.


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## backcountry

It's 830 pm on December 21st and it's 50 degrees in my backyard 😳

Just wanted to bookmark that reality.


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## shaner

You will see plenty of ski boats for sale but who wants one of those?
True fishing boats are going to be few and far between and will carry a high premium in ‘21.


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## taxidermist

I've said it before and I'll say it again....Population growth in Utah....the second driest state in the lower 48, will eat itself from the inside out. Water aquifers will go from a 250' draw to 600'. Guess it doesn't matter anyway, the second wave of the "Britt COVID" will thin the heard so to speak.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Quite concerned at this point looking at snowpack, the forecast, and the water year so far. Lakes, marshes, ponds I’ve never seen dry up were completely gone this past summer. On Monroe mountain, the 3 lakes I frequent most were empty, Annabella reservoir was dried completely up, one side of Big Lake was completely dry. There’s no way with the amount of snow we’ve received they even get to a point any water can be drained from them, no way they are to a point they’ll have enough water to even plant fish in at this rate. Too dry for too long, haven’t ever seen things in quite this bad of shape before. Hopefully a few big storms slam us in the next 6 weeks, or we are not in a good way, and let’s pray for a very wet spring and summer.


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## Vanilla

Not good, indeed.


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## taxidermist

In past dry years (summers) I've noticed Municipalities placing a moratorium on watering yards. Where I reside, I have never seen the City put this in place. I sure hope they do this year! 


I'm thinking of spending the money on a Zero Scape landscape and use native plants that do well in a dry hot climate. I'll leave the lawn in the back yard, but in the front yard.....I'm saying goodbye to the grass and planting rock, sage, cactus, and oak.


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## backcountry

I could see meadow grass on drive back from Panguitch yesterday. Heck, it's obvious winter recreation is taking an unusual toll mid-January as at least one Meadow was mudded up from snowmobiles. It's a dishearteningening sight as we normally have at least a couple feet piled up on average years. 

The ridge sitting over us right now isn't promising. And the 3 month NOAA precip forecast/outlook appears pretty grim. And some of those are times we historically get big, wet snowstorms.


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> I could meadow grass on drive back from Panguitch yesterday. Heck, it's obvious winter recreation is taking an unusual toll mid-January as at least one Meadow was mudded up from snowmobiles. It's a dishearteningening sight as we normally have at least a couple feet piled up on average years.
> 
> The ridge sitting over us right now isn't promising. And the 3 month NOAA precip forecast/outlook appears pretty grim. And some of those are times we historically get big, wet snowstorms.


It's been bad on top of bad on top of bad. Right now it has potential to be pretty devastating to wildlife and fish. I know there's not even close to enough water to fill the little lakes I frequently fish right now full enough to even put the fish in them. We've had bad winters plenty of times but the cycle we're in right now has piled it on top of a bad winter and a brutally dry summer. Please send a few giant storms by the end of February or we're screwed in several places.


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## DREW_22

Our water usage will need to better monitored. We live in the desert. All summer long I see businesses watering in the middle of the day. Usually with busted sprinkler heads filling the gutter. However, even when restrictions have been in place, the most lush patches of pointless sod in the Salt Lake Valley are CHURCHES. Lawns that are not enjoyed or used 6 out of 7 days a week yet they are being watered to saturation point daily to keep up appearances.


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## MooseMeat

It’s interesting to read these comments here from some guys who posted a few months back in other threads predicting we would have a terrible winter this year, which would be the final nail in the coffin for our deer and elk herds, but now are complaining about the lack of snow and how awful this is, and praying for big storms to come soon.

Some people are never happy. 

The lack of snow is definitely a concern. But given the shape on how the deer and elk entered into the winter months of 20-21, I’d rather be on this side of things instead of storms piling on top of each other with no end in sight, like what we had in 16-17. 

Maybe now it’s time for the public sportsmen to push hard to drastically cut grazing allotments this year on public land and save what little feed is available next summer, for the state’s wildlife instead of going to private mouths, profits and benefits.


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## middlefork

MooseMeat said:


> .
> Maybe now it's time for the public sportsmen to push hard to drastically cut grazing allotments this year on public land and save what little feed is available next summer, for the state's wildlife instead of going to private mouths, profits and benefits.


Not going to happen but keep beating that drum. The sportsmen of Utah can't even come close to organizing opposition to the the farm bureau and cattleman's Association.

I don't think attacking peoples livelihoods versus a recreational pursuit will hold much sway.


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## Vanilla

Moose, the animals aren’t in great shape right now, so neither option between severe devastating drought and huge devastating winter seem all that appealing to me. 

But the one thing I know, is fish and animals need water. 

Oh, and people need water too.


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## backcountry

Agree with Middlefork. Dealing with something like livestock grazing on public lands would take years of effort and and an unusual alliance of stakeholder groups putting down their arms for shared benefit. Given land management tensions right now I don't see that happening.

Our herds will always ebb and flow with climate. But we ultimately need water for them and us. This current year is looking extremely bleak.


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## #1DEER 1-I

MooseMeat said:


> It's interesting to read these comments here from some guys who posted a few months back in other threads predicting we would have a terrible winter this year, which would be the final nail in the coffin for our deer and elk herds, but now are complaining about the lack of snow and how awful this is, and praying for big storms to come soon.
> 
> Some people are never happy.
> 
> The lack of snow is definitely a concern. But given the shape on how the deer and elk entered into the winter months of 20-21, I'd rather be on this side of things instead of storms piling on top of each other with no end in sight, like what we had in 16-17.
> 
> Maybe now it's time for the public sportsmen to push hard to drastically cut grazing allotments this year on public land and save what little feed is available next summer, for the state's wildlife instead of going to private mouths, profits and benefits.


Unfortunately our elk herds will take the hit if the drought gets bad like usual.


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## MooseMeat

Vanilla said:


> But the one thing I know, is fish and animals need water.
> 
> Oh, and people need water too.


Adolf Herbert should have thought about that before he invited everyone to move to utah.


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## taxidermist

The crazing of cattle, sheep on forest service lands does two things that I see.....


One, it does profit the cattleman to craze the cattle in the mountains so the pastures can be grown and cultivated for when the cattle are brought off the mountain.


Two, By allowing crazing in the forest, it also eliminates a small amount of undergrowth to be eaten that could potentially become a catalyst for fires. 


I don't know the cost of a grazing permit anymore, but it isn't that cheap if you have 1000 cattle on the range at a price of $200 a head. Do the math. That's more than most folks make in a year. 


It turns into an economic game if summer range is cut in half or worse...eliminated. The cost of feeding that animal will be a economic loss to the cattlemen, with will reflect the cost of said animal to the consumer...US. 


I don't know how you juggle this situation of extreme drought and grazing??? Either way it will hit us the consumer in the pocket book. Weather we're eating the beast or recreating in the woods and the lakes.


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## MooseMeat

taxidermist said:


> The crazing of cattle, sheep on forest service lands does two things that I see.....
> 
> One, it does profit the cattleman to craze the cattle in the mountains so the pastures can be grown and cultivated for when the cattle are brought off the mountain.
> 
> Two, By allowing crazing in the forest, it also eliminates a small amount of undergrowth to be eaten that could potentially become a catalyst for fires.
> 
> I don't know the cost of a grazing permit anymore, but it isn't that cheap if you have 1000 cattle on the range at a price of $200 a head. Do the math. That's more than most folks make in a year.
> 
> It turns into an economic game if summer range is cut in half or worse...eliminated. The cost of feeding that animal will be a economic loss to the cattlemen, with will reflect the cost of said animal to the consumer...US.
> 
> I don't know how you juggle this situation of extreme drought and grazing??? Either way it will hit us the consumer in the pocket book. Weather we're eating the beast or recreating in the woods and the lakes.


It's far below $200 per head...

And yeah all that grazing on the Nebo sure helped things when it went up in flames in 2018 :roll: they graze the hell out of it and that helped reduce that fire devastation by a whole 0%


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## Vanilla

taxidermist said:


> I don't know the cost of a grazing permit anymore, but it isn't that cheap if you have 1000 cattle on the range at a price of $200 a head. Do the math. That's more than most folks make in a year.


I'm not in the cattle game, but the cost to graze on federal lands is not anywhere NEAR $200 per head, or $200,000 to graze on federal lands.

An AUM hit $1.35 in 2019. Costs to administer the program are larger than what they receive in fees. I don't know where you got your information, but it does not appear that you are even in the ballpark for the accurate cost.


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## Fowlmouth

Farmers Almanac....WRONG!


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## backcountry

For a random formula they get it right 52% of the time 😁


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## middlefork

There is a cost associated with acquiring a grazing permit which can be quite substantial in addition to the annual AUM fees. Much like buying your home and having to pay property taxes.

Some good reading if anybody is interested.
https://www.fs.fed.us/rangeland-management/grazing/index.shtml


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## bowgy

Something to look at.
https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/rangelands-and-grazing/livestock-grazing

Oops Middlefork beat me to it but his is Forest Service mine is BLM


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## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> Some good reading if anybody is interested.
> https://www.fs.fed.us/rangeland-management/grazing/index.shtml


I am interested. What is the cost to acquire a permit? I did not see that on the webpage.


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## middlefork

As I understand it, it is a bid type process by whoever wants the permit. I suppose you can try and find the cost paid to retire the permits in the GSENM although I think there is some requirement to actually use the permit. It is not a fixed amount.


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## middlefork

Google grazing permits for sale. One example below.

http://www.bankersrealtyutah.com/gunnison-livestock-ranch.html

A little more explanation.
http://ranchingtruth.org/what-is-a-grazing-allotment


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## taxidermist

And yeah all that grazing on the Nebo sure helped things when it went up in flames in 2018 :roll: they graze the hell out of it and that helped reduce that fire devastation by a whole 0%

The Nebo fire in 2018 was a total joke the way the Feds went about "controlling" it!! I know the real story on that before it turned into a blaze from He!!. If you remember, someone lost their job over that. I was on horse back helping a Cattleman friend when the SNAG that was hit by lightening was smoldering. I could say more...but I'll leave that hot poker alone!!  

https://utahwildlife.net/forum/21-great-outdoors/204395-2020-21-snowpack-3.html#


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## MooseMeat

taxidermist said:


> And yeah all that grazing on the Nebo sure helped things when it went up in flames in 2018 :roll: they graze the hell out of it and that helped reduce that fire devastation by a whole 0%
> 
> The Nebo fire in 2018 was a total joke the way the Feds went about "controlling" it!! I know the real story on that before it turned into a blaze from He!!. If you remember, someone lost their job over that. I was on horse back helping a Cattleman friend when the SNAG that was hit by lightening was smoldering. I could say more...but I'll leave that hot poker alone!!
> 
> https://utahwildlife.net/forum/21-great-outdoors/204395-2020-21-snowpack-3.html#


I know the whole story as well. It's not a secret. Losing their job and being forced to resign/retire are two very different things. Early retirement doesn't sound too bad considering what should have happened to them.

Anyways, had the grazing done what you are claiming it does to reduce fires, you should have seen that tactic pay off in some way in that fire. In no way did anyone see grazing that place for years down to nothing, pay off. It's just another one of those made up "benefits" that we are supposedly seeing from public mooching, uh, I mean grazing.


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## Vanilla

I hope more water comes to our hills or there won’t be anything for these poor cows to eat. 

Snowpack totals still suck.


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## MooseMeat

Vanilla said:


> I hope more water comes to our hills or there won't be anything for these poor cows to eat.
> 
> Snowpack totals still suck.


Gives a whole new meaning to Black Lives Matter! Haha


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## taxidermist

Vanilla said:


> I hope more water comes to our hills or there won't be anything for these poor cows to eat.
> 
> Snowpack totals still suck.


Sad thing is the feed in the winter range is thin now. Without some weather, we'll be seeing rib bones on the wildlife this year. Oceanic temperatures are playing hell on the weather patterns. Even has the whales all messed up.


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## PBH

All this talk of the cost of grazing permits makes me think about the Bundy's, and ranchers in Piute county.


I'm not so sure that the cost of grazing is that big of a deal to many.


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## middlefork

Well we could always throw in water shares into the discussion. :grin:

One thing about the weather, everyone can complain about it because nobody can do anything about it.


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## backcountry

Cedar started a plan to phase out water shares a few years back. If this drought continues their timeline may not be aggressive enough.

I knew our situation was dire but I didn't know how to quantify what it would take to get back to normal. According to the state employee in charge of our snow surveys we'd need a hundred inches of snow to catch up :shock:

https://www.fox13now.com/weather/experts-say-utahs-snowpack-is-55-of-normal


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## 2full

We are still driving into a couple of the cabins that we haunt. 
That is sick and wrong and not a good omen for future water supplies.


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## Vanilla

Man, no bueno! Maybe this week of forecasted storms gets a couple places closer to even yellow? 

Fingers crossed...


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## 2full

That is one UGLY map for sure.


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## backcountry

We have at 3-5 days of precipitation lined up on the forecasts for southern utah. Fingers crossed it materializes as it's bare and bone dry around here. 

I wouldn't be shocked if we start some type of water rationing in Cedar in the near future if we have more years like this and continued growth. I was just talking to my parents about the late 70s when they had to remodel piping to collect grey water because fines were so steep if you went over allocations.


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## Critter

I remember many years ago when I was working down in Cedar City. They hadn't gotten any or very little snow and then it hit. The last week of January. I had to chain up my truck to get out of the motel parking lot.


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## NativeCutt

It's not just Mother Nature's fault. Utah government wants to continue to invite business and growth in a state that doesn't have the resources to provide for it. Maybe the storms not coming will be a wake-up-call that uncontrolled growth has consequences. Think of all the water being diverted from our streams and rivers for the growth. Much of this water that used to run to Great Salt Lake (which many think of as a dead waste) is being held in the underground infrastructure needed for the growth. This keeps Great Salt Lake small and much of it just barren dry land now.


Remember, the lake is important for snow production. Ever heard of the "lake effect"? That's right. The lake is a snow producer. When storms come through moist evaporating water from the lake mixes in with the moisture coming through to produce the deep snows in the mountains. Without the water in the lake enhancing the storms we get smaller amounts of snow.


That stinky salt laden lake is a lot more important than what you think. As it diminishes so does snow
snowpack.


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## middlefork

NativeCutt said:


> It's not just Mother Nature's fault. Utah government wants to continue to invite business and growth in a state that doesn't have the resources to provide for it. Maybe the storms not coming will be a wake-up-call that uncontrolled growth has consequences. Think of all the water being diverted from our streams and rivers for the growth. Much of this water that used to run to Great Salt Lake (which many think of as a dead waste) is being held in the underground infrastructure needed for the growth. This keeps Great Salt Lake small and much of it just barren dry land now.
> 
> Remember, the lake is important for snow production. Ever heard of the "lake effect"? That's right. The lake is a snow producer. When storms come through moist evaporating water from the lake mixes in with the moisture coming through to produce the deep snows in the mountains. Without the water in the lake enhancing the storms we get smaller amounts of snow.
> 
> That stinky salt laden lake is a lot more important than what you think. As it diminishes so does snow
> snowpack.


So how exactly do you propose correcting the problem? What are you going to do about the people who are already here? What is your solution to a economy that provides good jobs and a great life style? I'm sure you have some answers.


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## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> So how exactly do you propose correcting the problem? What are you going to do about the people who are already here? What is your solution to a economy that provides good jobs and a great life style? I'm sure you have some answers.


I've heard you can just build a wall. And we can make California pay for it!

Sorry, that doesn't have much to do with our snow pack. My bad.


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## #1DEER 1-I

NativeCutt said:


> It's not just Mother Nature's fault. Utah government wants to continue to invite business and growth in a state that doesn't have the resources to provide for it. Maybe the storms not coming will be a wake-up-call that uncontrolled growth has consequences. Think of all the water being diverted from our streams and rivers for the growth. Much of this water that used to run to Great Salt Lake (which many think of as a dead waste) is being held in the underground infrastructure needed for the growth. This keeps Great Salt Lake small and much of it just barren dry land now.
> 
> Remember, the lake is important for snow production. Ever heard of the "lake effect"? That's right. The lake is a snow producer. When storms come through moist evaporating water from the lake mixes in with the moisture coming through to produce the deep snows in the mountains. Without the water in the lake enhancing the storms we get smaller amounts of snow.
> 
> That stinky salt laden lake is a lot more important than what you think. As it diminishes so does snow
> snowpack.


Yeah this is not going to happen. In fact SLC/Utah are likely to be some of the fastest growing places in America in the coming years.



> So how exactly do you propose correcting the problem? What are you going to do about the people who are already here? What is your solution to a economy that provides good jobs and a great life style? I'm sure you have some answers.


Water sucking lawns is one way. Specifically lets start on state, county, and city properties. The amount of things requiring water in a desert, especially in southern Utah are way past the acreage they need to be. To manage our water needs we should start limiting the things we use our water on. Utah is the 2nd/3rd most water using state per capita state in the nation. And we want a hugely damaging and expensive Lake Powell pipeline paid for by everyone's tax dollars, oh and a few more damns to deplete the GSL? Nah. No thanks. How about we stop being some of the worst conservationists in the nation on water usage first. For all the pumping of Utahns conservation spirit we sure don't show it well as a state.

We should probably start believing in the warming climate trends as well and trying to curve them as we can.

As for snowpack this year, I was excited to several days of chances and it looks like around the state their still is, but tonight's the only real chance for our area over the next 10 days, so I hope it loads up the mountains tonight.


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## freepunk

Run a pipeline from the ocean and let er' rip. Lets make the GSL great again! 

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk


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## middlefork

#1DEER 1-I said:


> .
> 
> Water sucking lawns is one way. Specifically lets start on state, county, and city properties. The amount of things requiring water in a desert, especially in southern Utah are way past the acreage they need to be. To manage our water needs we should start limiting the things we use our water on. Utah is the 2nd/3rd most water using state per capita state in the nation. And we want a hugely damaging and expensive Lake Powell pipeline paid for by everyone's tax dollars, oh and a few more damns to deplete the GSL? Nah. No thanks. How about we stop being some of the worst conservationists in the nation on water usage first. For all the pumping of Utahns conservation spirit we sure don't show it well as a state.


I have no problem advocating xeriscape landscaping. It should not worsen the problem. And public spaces certainly can lead the charge. But I think we need to widen the net some.

https://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/su...billion gallons per,to compare per capita use.


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## #1DEER 1-I

middlefork said:


> I have no problem advocating xeriscape landscaping. It should not worsen the problem. And public spaces certainly can lead the charge. But I think we need to widen the net some.
> 
> https://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/su...billion gallons per,to compare per capita use.


Agreed, the thing is, the more growth and farmland turned into municipality use it will actually decrease water usage. The biggest use is farm irrigation for sure. We should obviously be quickly improving irrigation practices as well as cutting back on municipality usage. But a 40 acre field converted to homes actually uses less water than irrigating a field full of crops. So in relation to population growth, it will impact some of it less than some things. Unfortunately things like pheasants and some wildlife take a huge hit from becoming more conservative in irrigation practices.


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## #1DEER 1-I

On January 23rd,2021 I drove a truck to Big Lake on Cove/Monroe Mountain. The lakes were all but gone at the end of the fall last year. It has never, ever.....ever in my life been this bad. If you believe climate change is a “hoax” I suggest you look out your front door today. We are truly f***** at this point. Where 4-5 feet of snow should be, there’s maybe a foot. On top of it, it was one of the hottest, most dry summer and falls on record. Again. Never in my life has it been close to what we are facing water wise if February isn’t just blasted in snow.


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## backcountry

I was concerned about that range when we drove to Bicknell. They looked so bare.


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> I was concerned about that range when we drove to Bicknell. They looked so bare.


The thing is, it's not just the winter. The hottest/driest summer/fall I've seen is compiled on top of it. If you're familiar with Cove/Monroe mountain. 2 out of the last 3 years a few of the lakes on it have completely dried up, including this fall. Box creek? A puddle. Big lake? The entire east end was gone by last fall. Annabella lake? Completely dried up. Deep lake? A tiny puddle. And now a whole foot of snow at Big Lake at the end of January, yeah it's worse than I've ever seen it. There won't be enough replenishment in those lakes to even reach the gate to the dam at this point. It's not just bad, the situation is so far beyond as bad as I've ever seen it it's quite scary. But hey. At least 1 day in the 10 day forecast to end January has a 40% chance of snow. We're f***** to say the least.


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## Vanilla

What a difference 14 hours can make for southern Utah! These two screen shots were taken yesterday afternoon and then this morning at 0600. We could really use a couple more of these storms spread out over the next month.


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## PBH

glad they got some over on the boulder....but, still -- that storm was nowhere near what they predicted.

At least we have more coming over the next week.


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## Vanilla

That may be a good thing. 2-3 feet in one dropping could have had a very negative impact on the life of some of the wildlife. While we need more, it could have been none. I'll view it as a net positive and not complain too much. ;-)


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## MooseMeat

South utah county/north juab county is getting hammered. This 30% chance storm isn’t too bad.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Good to see some, only 90” to go


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## backcountry

Definitely a net positive. A relief to see snow in town and on the hill.


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## NativeCutt

Just throwing this out there: If climate change is real and we are warming and the glaciers are melting wouldn't that add more water to the hydrology system which would eventually end up as rain and snow?


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## backcountry

Not that simple. Weather systems are more likely to be erratic and some areas, like the SW, are projected to experience long term droughts. Other areas could see extreme amounts of rain, similar to those atmospheric rivers that have been hitting the west coast so hard the last few years. 

Much of human society is predicated on reliable climate patterns and a narrow range of conditions. Upsetting that so drastically is difficult to fathom.


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## #1DEER 1-I

NativeCutt said:


> Just throwing this out there: If climate change is real and we are warming and the glaciers are melting wouldn't that add more water to the hydrology system which would eventually end up as rain and snow?


The question is not "if" climate change is happening. The only debate is how much of an impact we are having on it and how much we can actually do about it. The trends are quite clear the climate is changing.

Also, what backcountry said. Small differences in climate over a long term have huge implications, especially on wildlife and even more so on fish. There are streams becoming un-livable to trout due to warming water temperatures. 99.9% of scientists studying it agree climate change is an issue and that we do contribute to it. The extent, and what we can do about it is a conversation to be had. Yet somehow we've convinced ourselves to listen to politicians....because of course someone like say.....Mike Lee is an expert in a field like that.


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## Vanilla

Dunning-Krueger Effect


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## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> Dunning-Krueger Effect


You keep leaving that statement without any further explanation/comment. Care to provide further context?


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## Vanilla

I've recently learned about this principle. I find it interesting.


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## middlefork

backcountry said:


> You keep leaving that statement without any further explanation/comment. Care to provide further context?


Don't feel too bad I had to search the click bait too.


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## Vanilla

I assure you I gain nothing from someone searching what the definition of that is. So “click bait” may not be a great definition here. 

I do think it would do people a whole lot of good to be aware of the principle, though. Just because someone is the loudest, doesn’t mean they know what they’re talking about.


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## backcountry

I've known it's basics for a few years. I inadvertently knew about earlier because avalanche training organizations decided to change tactics when studies showed those who had taken entry level courses were actually likely to increase risk. They just didn't use the phrase. 

The bias it creates likely affects us all. Good to be aware. 

I didn't see Vanilla's use as clickbait in any fashion just wasn't sure his exact point/context.


----------



## middlefork

backcountry said:


> I've known it's basics for a few years. I inadvertently knew about earlier because avalanche training organizations decided to change tactics when studies showed those who had taken entry level courses were actually likely to increase risk. They just didn't use the phrase.
> 
> The bias it creates likely affects us all. Good to be aware.
> 
> I didn't see Vanilla's use as clickbait in any fashion just wasn't sure his exact point/context.


He used it in a couple of different threads. Just the first time I've seen it.

Having been around avalanche training organizations for almost 50 years I had no idea they actually thought that was the case. I always thought it more as being group mentality but it is certainly vague enough to consider.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, about 10-15 years ago there was research done that showed that low level training (vs none) was correlated with increased risk (ie recreation in higher risk avalanche terrain/days). They (at least many organizations) shifted their focus from solely hard skills orientation to an increased focus on human dynamics. I haven't seen follow up studies but the thought was if you can get people to look at their biases and not overestimate their ability to determine avalanche conditions that it would help them mitigate risk better. 

Much of it centered around, or was catalyzed by, a Wasatch backcountry skier named Ian McCammon. I haven't read the research in about a decade but he did retrospective interviews from avalanche fatalities. The heuristic framework he presented changed much of the framework of risk mitigation in the outdoor industry. I don't know if it turned out to be a fad or if it stuck as I haven't been part of it for a while now. But around 2010 human and group dynamics was a huge component of the discussion.


----------



## Vanilla

We are not where we need to be, but the last week has done a lot to help get us closer to that.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Vanilla said:


> We are not where we need to be, but the last week has done a lot to help get us closer to that.


If we can get to 80%+ by the end of February in most places I'll feel somewhat better and just hope for a really wet spring/summer.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Looking like a chance today, but snowpack in my neck of the woods sits at 64%, and after today about 10 days of forecasted 45-50 degree days from there. (It’s February by the way)


----------



## backcountry

That last week of storms down here was great. We'll take whatever we can get at this point. Ending above 70% would take us from frightening to simply scary. After last summer's non-soon we'll need an amazing amount rain in the spring and summer of this year but I'm breathing a sigh of relief for now. 

I've been reading on how this round of droughts is putting a lot of pressure on the renegotations regarding the Colorado River Compact. They still have a decade, if I remember correctly, but having the 2020 precip numbers puts the importance in perspective.

And yes, 1-I, these fluctuations in temperatures are absolutely nuts. Its 60 in my backyard today. I'll enjoy it but something ain't right.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> That last week of storms down here was great. We'll take whatever we can get at this point. Ending above 70% would take us from frightening to simply scary. After last summer's non-soon we'll need an amazing amount rain in the spring and summer of this year but I'm breathing a sigh of relief for now.
> 
> I've been reading on how this round of droughts is putting a lot of pressure on the renegotations regarding the Colorado River Compact. They still have a decade, if I remember correctly, but having the 2020 precip numbers puts the importance in perspective.
> 
> And yes, 1-I, these fluctuations in temperatures are absolutely nuts. Its 60 in my backyard today. I'll enjoy it but something ain't right.


It's bad for sure, upper Sevier is sitting at 63% today. 10 days of 45-50 degree temps won't be doing us any favors. 50 and raining today, chance of snow tonight, but there better be a very very wet spring/summer.


----------



## PBH

backcountry said:


> Its 60 in my backyard today. I'll enjoy it but something ain't right.


According to what?

How long have we been keeping records of weather?
What do the tree rings say?

If we were able to look at a large enough sample (2 million years??) maybe we'd chalk up this "climate change" to a simple "bump" in the weather. Who knows. Instead of this being a change reaching crisis level, it's actually coming back to a normal baseline?

We're so short sighted.
:noidea:


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

PBH said:


> According to what?
> 
> How long have we been keeping records of weather?
> What do the tree rings say?
> 
> If we were able to look at a large enough sample (2 million years??) maybe we'd chalk up this "climate change" to a simple "bump" in the weather. Who knows. Instead of this being a change reaching crisis level, it's actually coming back to a normal baseline?
> 
> We're so short sighted.
> :noidea:


The climate has pretty clearly been warming, and greenhouse gases that we emit do impact it.


----------



## PBH

#1DEER 1-I said:


> The climate has pretty clearly been warming, and greenhouse gases that we emit do impact it.


For how long? the last hundred years? Please. Give it a millenia or so and let's see where we are at...


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

PBH said:


> For how long? the last hundred years? Please. Give it a millenia or so and let's see where we are at...


There has been a drastic change in correlation with the green house gases increasing (that we emit) and the climate changing. Again, we can talk about the extent of our contribution to the change, but it does contribute to it and 99.99% of scientists agree on this I don't care what politicians or a hunting forum has to say on the matter. Those actually studying it are a far better place to look for answers.


----------



## backcountry

PBH said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Its 60 in my backyard today. I'll enjoy it but something ain't right.
> 
> 
> 
> According to what?
> 
> How long have we been keeping records of weather?
> What do the tree rings say?
> 
> If we were able to look at a large enough sample (2 million years??) maybe we'd chalk up this "climate change" to a simple "bump" in the weather. Who knows. Instead of this being a change reaching crisis level, it's actually coming back to a normal baseline?
> 
> We're so short sighted.
Click to expand...

100% disagree. Yep, climate change is common on the geologic scale and my observation is anecdotal but 2020 was the second hottest year on record and the hottest was in the last 20 years.

When I say something "ain't right" it's backed by science and is under the framework of the human experience. Yes, the globe has always had fluctuations but humans are relatively new to this place and I'd like to maintain an equilibrium that is functional for us. It may ultimately swing out of our comfy little range needed to survive again but I'd assume it's not because of our habits that we could have amended.

It's the opposite of short sighted actually.


----------



## backcountry

And to reiterate.... I'm fully aware there are things we can't control and we won't know if our recommended changes will make the difference. But we don't have a millennia to wait and collect more data. Not if we want to help human populations survive and thrive in the the way we currently know, or better. The wait and see approach ignores the key distinction that the conversation has always been about. It's about the selfish desire for human populations not the world in the abstract sense.

In the meantime I'll enjoy 60 degrees in the winter because I can't control it. But it doesn't bode well for us. At a minimum even the need to have enough water for basic functions in the decades to come is uncertain for Cedar's current and growing population.


----------



## Brookie

Here you go on a timline From NASA. "In short, climate is the description of the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. Some scientists define climate as the average weather for a particular region and time period, usually taken over 30-years" This is also what we are required to teach 9th graders in Earth System.


----------



## middlefork

Just need to figure out how to plug those volcanos and stop all the forest fires and then do away a with half of billion people and all will be good.

History in the context of people is much longer than a couple of hundred years. But hey the doomsday people have to keep putting out the date the worlds going to end.

I'll take AWAG and say your great grand children will still be able to roam the earth.


----------



## Critter

The big reality of green house gases is that you need to figure out how to get China and India to quit polluting the air. 

The US could go totally electric, no more coal, gas, or other fossil fuel and I doubt that you would reduce the carbon footprint more than 1% in my opinion.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Critter said:


> The big reality of green house gases is that you need to figure out how to get China and India to quit polluting the air.
> 
> The US could go totally electric, no more coal, gas, or other fossil fuel and I doubt that you would reduce the carbon footprint more than 1% in my opinion.


Agreed, other countries must get to a point of complying as well. Other countries doing bad, doesn't mean we shouldn't do what we can to be better though. All you should have to do is look at the Salt Lake Valley on a wintery inversion day and think "we can do better" because that stuff is bad in more ways than one. In Utah it's 2-fold. 1 its better for the environment, 2-it's better for us and our health to clean that dirty **** up. Whether for climate change, or cleaning up our air and minimizing dirty air impacts on our health, we should all be for as clean of air as we can achieve. For many reasons we should be doing what we can to move away from fossil fuels to the extent we can, especially in this state.


----------



## backcountry

I think its fair to say "roaming the earth" is a pretty low standard. Many definitely will. Some will be just fine and better off depending on where they live. Many will be stuck suffering the negative consequences. 

And there is a lot of space between doomsdayers and the scientific consensus (and those who recognize its validity).

Imagine if doctors, engineers and scientist applied some of the logic we've seen here:

"I know millions of people are dying of cancer a year but its more important to focus on the fact that humans are living longer than ever"
"I know we have been in a long term drought but lets collect another hundred years of data before we consider changes to our water plan"

Every problem has variables we can't control for. But we don't throw up our hands and give up. And wanting to at least try to account for the issues we can doesn't make people doomsdayers. Political over-reaction sucks but trying to problem solve the elements of AGW is pretty dang practical if you value passing on a better "world" than we inherited. 

I think its pretty telling that its those of us in the boomer and generation X category that seem to be the most resistant to accepting the consensus and any effort to mitigate what we can. We don't have much to lose in avoiding it and actually have some things to lose by adopting the stance. (Though there are societal realities we are facing sooner than expected) Those younger than us though? The opposite is true. 

More to the point of the thread.....I for one would prefer not to have move because water issues could impact my retirement years. Would suck to have invested so much time and money into my house and deal with all the consequences of water shortages, like crashing home values, etc. For me that means trying to get our water district to fully recognize and incorporate AGW into their long term planning and maybe, just maybe consider how we should consider unfettered growth into that vision.

Or we could also discuss impacts to wildlife and fisheries in our lifetimes. Fractured habitats plus AGW isn't exactly a great combination for sustaining enough wildlife for us to hunt at least every few years. Etc. Etc.

There is a lot of gray to play in between "what about the volcanos" or "the climate has always changed" AND "the sky is falling". We have the capacity to work in that gray area and make a meaningful difference.


----------



## middlefork

https://rsc.byu.edu/far-away-west/j...pedition-its-influence-mormon-settlement-utah

"In 1848, when he presented his Geographical Memoir Upon Upper California to the United States Senate, Frémont was no doubt pleased to report to the lawmakers that the Mormon people had settled in the Great Basin, an area he promoted as being rich in natural resources. And although he reported that "the *general character of the Great Basin was that of a desert*," he also added, "but with great expectations, there being many parts of it very fit for the residence of a civilized people; and of these parts, the Mormons have lately established themselves in one of the largest and the best."[41]"

Bold added for emphasis.

So along come the people and screw it up good. I can't wait to see what everyone is going to do to end population growth in Utah.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

middlefork said:


> https://rsc.byu.edu/far-away-west/j...pedition-its-influence-mormon-settlement-utah
> 
> "In 1848, when he presented his Geographical Memoir Upon Upper California to the United States Senate, Frémont was no doubt pleased to report to the lawmakers that the Mormon people had settled in the Great Basin, an area he promoted as being rich in natural resources. And although he reported that "the *general character of the Great Basin was that of a desert*," he also added, "but with great expectations, there being many parts of it very fit for the residence of a civilized people; and of these parts, the Mormons have lately established themselves in one of the largest and the best."[41]"
> 
> Bold added for emphasis.
> 
> So along come the people and screw it up good. I can't wait to see what everyone is going to do to end population growth in Utah.


No one said that at all, but you can change to minimize the impacts on the environment, way of life, and future.


----------



## Vanilla

I’m glad we have 1Eye to single-handedly end climate change through this forum. 

We should all count ourselves very lucky. 

On that note, what are the storms doing around the state? Utah County has been disappointing today. Very little has come through.


----------



## middlefork

And pray tell please let me know how I can change to minimize my impacts on the environment, way of life, and future. You have absolutely no idea what others are doing. But if it doesn't meet your agenda it can't be happening.


People use water, energy and other resources to live. What is your magic solution?

And yes a little more precipitation would be excellent.


----------



## middlefork

Mountains did ok in the north. Didn't have to shovel in the valley.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

middlefork said:


> And pray tell please let me know how I can change to minimize my impacts on the environment, way of life, and future. You have absolutely no idea what others are doing. But if it doesn't meet your agenda it can't be happening.
> 
> People use water, energy and other resources to live. What is your magic solution?
> 
> And yes a little more precipitation would be excellent.


No actually they aren't in Utah. Utah has the 2nd highest per capita water use in the nation. So maybe lets start there? Then lets talk about using tax money to spend on coal ports vs renewable energy. Then lets talk about the bills in the legislature which hurt green energy in the state. Utahn's use more of those things on average per capita than much of the nation so lets start there.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Vanilla said:


> I'm glad we have 1Eye to single-handedly end climate change through this forum.
> 
> We should all count ourselves very lucky.
> 
> On that note, what are the storms doing around the state? Utah County has been disappointing today. Very little has come through.


I didn't say I had every answer, but those of you resistant to what is pretty concrete to actual scientists are certainly the experts. I'm not an expert, I'm relaying what those who are have to say on the matter. You aren't an expert either, so maybe lets listen to the 99.99% who are vs the internet and political "experts". Politicians are the only ones who drive the debate of "if" climate change is an issue, and politicians are certainly more honest and truth driven than anyone for sure! Politicians on the left over-state what we can do about it and how dramatically and quickly we can move to change our contribution towards it. Republicans who outright deny it is happening are not scientists. Not experts. And have likely never looked at an ounce of data aside from what helps them be elected to run off of. Both are dishonest in their pushes in regards to the issue, but it is an actual issue and I'll side with the side that acknowledges it, instead of ignoring it because it could be an inconvenience to try and address.

As for the storm, a little rain, not much help from this one. But hey, welcome those nearing 50 degree temps through February the next 10 days!


----------



## middlefork

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/1...-environment-hazardous-waste-utah-china-solar

Never quite as simple as we would like.


----------



## backcountry

I don't think anyone is arguing the problem will be solved here.


----------



## backcountry

And to alternative energy costs...very true. A lot of well meaning projects end up with unexpected upstream and downstream impacts. Most actually. And they should be considered.

And so should the upstream and downstream costs of traditional energy resources. Some are regularly talked about. Others not so much.

Reality is most things in life have a hidden cost.


----------



## middlefork

backcountry said:


> I don't think anyone is arguing the problem will be solved here.


Geeze what a defeatist. :mrgreen:

We humans can remake the world in our own design. Screw mother nature.


----------



## Vanilla

#1DEER 1-I said:


> I didn't say I had every answer, but those of you resistant to...


Let's get something straight, you don't have the first darn clue what I'm resistant to. I haven't talked about climate change or anything else on this thread, only sticking to the point of the thread and that to talk about snowpack levels. You, true to form, continue to assume whatever assumption fits your narrative and tender ego and have to inject your politics and anti-Utah bias into EVERY discussion you join on this forum.

I'm going to give you some unsolicited advice: shut up. Nobody cares about your hatred for Utah and Republicans and Mormons or anything else. Go find a forum that cares for that crap. Nobody cares.


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think anyone is arguing the problem will be solved here.
> 
> 
> 
> Geeze what a defeatist.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We humans can remake the world in our own design. Screw mother nature.
Click to expand...

We've already "remade" the world so to speak. Most of it just wasn't intentional.

I do have my defeatist moments &#128513;. I also don't think conservations here about wildlife policy "solve" anything either. Gasp. &#128513;

But they matter, just like disagreements about AGW.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Vanilla said:


> Let's get something straight, you don't have the first darn clue what I'm resistant to. I haven't talked about climate change or anything else on this thread, only sticking to the point of the thread and that to talk about snowpack levels. You, true to form, continue to assume whatever assumption fits your narrative and tender ego and have to inject your politics and anti-Utah bias into EVERY discussion you join on this forum.
> 
> I'm going to give you some unsolicited advice: shut up. Nobody cares about your hatred for Utah and Republicans and Mormons or anything else. Go find a forum that cares for that crap. Nobody cares.


Ill DM you instead. Snowpack is impacted by climate btw. Sorry you're uncomfortable or don't care about worthwhile conversations.


----------



## MooseMeat

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Ill DM you instead. Snowpack is impacted by climate btw. Sorry you're uncomfortable or don't care about worthwhile conversations.


I feel like I'm a pretty good judge of what a worthless conversation is, since I find myself in them almost daily. And I do in fact rarely read anything you post that is "worth while". Most is strictly opinion, stated as fact, and if someone disagrees, which is almost always, you also have the opinion that their opinion doesn't count and therefore is invalid or wrong.


----------



## PBH

#1DEER 1-I said:


> No actually they aren't in Utah. Utah has the 2nd highest per capita water use in the nation.


Forgive me for being ignorant with asking a question. We hear this a lot, about Utahns per capita water use. I don't know how this is calculated -- so it makes me wonder....

If we look at an area that has significantly more rainfall per year than Utah - let's say western New York just for fun (51" of rain per year)- wouldn't they naturally use less water than a place that receives 5-15 inches annually?

Ask someone from western New York if they could help you design a sprinkler system, and they'll give you some funny looks. Tell them you're going to xeriscape your yard, and see if they have a clue what you're talking about.

Again, I don't know how that water use is calculated, so maybe I'm way off base here. I don't know. I just feel that this is a very skewed statistic. I mean, we can look at John Stockton and say that he was the career leader in assists and steals. Karl Malone is number 2 in career points. Guess what? Stockton is #4 and Malone is #1 in all time turnovers.

Right, or wrong, we use more simply because we don't have a surplus of it freely watering our xeriscapes.

I'd wager that I probably use more gasoline (diesel) than a person that doesn't own a vehicle too.


----------



## Vanilla

PBH, you’re a classic racist Utahn for posting that stat regarding Karl Malone! How dare you! You Republicans are all the same, and that must mean you hate science too. (How’d I do, 1eye?) 

Don’t worry, Malone won’t have that record anymore by the end of the season. 

Looks like these storms aren’t increasing much, just holding things steady. Please bring us more!


----------



## PBH

that's a record I'll actually like to see Lebron break!


----------



## PBH

As for storms, living here in so. utah, I have to ask: what storms?


----------



## middlefork

PBH said:


> Forgive me for being ignorant with asking a question. We hear this a lot, about Utahns per capita water use. I don't know how this is calculated -- so it makes me wonder....
> 
> If we look at an area that has significantly more rainfall per year than Utah - let's say western New York just for fun (51" of rain per year)- wouldn't they naturally use less water than a place that receives 5-15 inches annually?
> 
> Ask someone from western New York if they could help you design a sprinkler system, and they'll give you some funny looks. Tell them you're going to xeriscape your yard, and see if they have a clue what you're talking about.
> 
> Again, I don't know how that water use is calculated, so maybe I'm way off base here. I don't know. I just feel that this is a very skewed statistic. I mean, we can look at John Stockton and say that he was the career leader in assists and steals. Karl Malone is number 2 in career points. Guess what? Stockton is #4 and Malone is #1 in all time turnovers.
> 
> Right, or wrong, we use more simply because we don't have a surplus of it freely watering our xeriscapes.
> 
> I'd wager that I probably use more gasoline (diesel) than a person that doesn't own a vehicle too.


I posted this link before. It may address your question.

https://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/su...billion gallons per,to compare per capita use


----------



## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> I posted this link before. It may address your question.
> 
> https://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/su...billion gallons per,to compare per capita use


I wonder if the Utah Geological Survey counts as "experts" that know what they're talking about? Probably not...


----------



## Critter

What folks that live in Utah need to understand is that they live in a desert and plan accordingly. Get rid of those nice Kentucky blue grass lawns and place rocks and natural brush and grasses for your landscape. Get rid of those nice green golf courses, yes they used reclaimed water, or so they say but it still take water to keep those courses green. Get rid of the schools football, soccer, and baseball fields and go to a artificial turf. Then you can get rid of all the farmers fields that use flood irrigation. They are getting fewer and fewer and most are now using a sprinkler irrigation of some sort but they use water. 

I remember back in the 70's when it was about the same as it is now. They were predicting that it would take 20 or 30 years for the aquifer to come back, then came 1983 and they turned streets into rivers and started pumping water out of the Great Salt Lake, they were afraid that I-15 south of Provo would be under water. I watched as they tore out bridges down around Monroe and the Richfield area because of the water flowing through the creeks and rivers. 

You just never know what is going to happen with the weather. The forecasters can hope that they get it right but most times they don't. Where I live they were predicting 7"-12" of snow last night. We got about 2", I've seen it where they predicted a couple of inches and we got a foot.


----------



## PBH

middlefork -- thank you!



Utah Geological Surveye said:


> Although state rankings are good for creating attention-grabbing headlines that inspire water-use awareness, they have little to no scientific merit


How interesting.

And:



Utah Geological Surveye said:


> Arid states typically use more water...


who woulda thunk it?

Again, I'm not saying it's right or wrong. I'm just saying that it seems like an obvious thing: we live in a dry state, we're going to use more water than those who live in wet states.

that's not to say that I won't continue doing my naked rain dance on the back porch each evening. So far it isn't working. Maybe I need to try the front porch? :noidea:


----------



## Vanilla

Critter said:


> What folks that live in Utah need to understand is that they live in a desert and plan accordingly.


You know Critter, I'm guessing that nobody in Utah realized we were in a desert, but this knowledge is going to educate the masses! :mrgreen:

It wasn't until recently that many municipalities wouldn't even allow for xeriscape, you had to have lawn or you could get fined by the city. There are some that still have those provisions on the books. I would totally do xeriscape on most of my yard if they made it worth my while. It's cheaper to pay for the water than it would be to redo the whole thing.


----------



## Critter

They have proven down in Arizona that if you have enough water you can grow anything. 

However all that water comes at a cost that a lot are now starting to have to pay.


----------



## backcountry

The thing that matters though, PBH, is the amount of water used compared against the amount of water available. The average is helpful in understanding how we are drawing down our community water sources. Variables like you describe give us context but aren't necessary for making those calculations.

And as you know, the arid west undoubtedly uses more water for things like watering lawns than NY. But as you know, and the averages indicate, that trend isn't sustainable. Just look at Cedar and how our yearly use is running a deficit on our aquifer, enough so that it's actually collapsing.

And per Critter's post...the models not only understand the possibility of such anecdotes but they seem to actually predict such erratic swings. The problem is, the population centers of the Intermountain West and SW can't maintain themselves under such erratic patterns without a massive change to behavior. And our regional food production centers in Southern to Central California are also implicated. 1983 was a great boon to the Colorado River system (almost too much of a good thing) but the trend even with those years included is we continue to be in a sustained and/or worsening drought. If you are reading up on the Colorado River storage system then you know the last few years have gotten us frighteningly close to a new bottom that we really don't have real, long term contingency plans for. 

Anecdotes are fun but the science on what is going on with climate change and water trends in the West is pretty well established and doesn't support hesitancy. The science can change with new/better data and analysis but the best science and consensus now is we are warming noticeably and experiencing more and longer droughts. Individuals can choose not to accept that fact but doing so doesn't affect the validity of the conclusions in any fashion. It does unfortunately affect policy given our democratic systems are driven by individual opinions/votes and not science.


----------



## Gordon

All I know is this. I live in the Bear River watershed. It's Feb 4 and the ground at my house is bare. Should be 12 inches of white stuff on the back lawn right now:shock:


----------



## PBH

backcountry -- if we really want to address this issue on a local scale, then how much water you and I use per day isn't the issue. The issue is growth. When was the last time you heard a local political leader (mayor, county commissioner, city planner, etc.) ever say that they wanted to limit growth? Never. Why is it that we always find realtors moving over into the political arena? Why are there a million multi-family units currently being built in Cedar City / Valley? 

Until we hit that critical point where water is no longer available, it won't stop. Everything you just said is correct - but none of it matters as long as we continue to grow.


----------



## backcountry

I don't disagree except on working on what we can despite barriers. But yes, given local politics we are unlikely to see meaningful policy that addresses the issue head on.

I watched this cycle play out in the Denver suburbs and while it will never happen to that scale we are definitely in for a wild, bumpy ride in the next few decades. 

Back to what Vanilla said...I don't think we are too far off in Cedar from incentivizing turf removal, at least in parking strips. They'll never require xeriscaping on new development in the next decade but there are other avenues that don't limit personal choice.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

PBH said:


> Forgive me for being ignorant with asking a question. We hear this a lot, about Utahns per capita water use. I don't know how this is calculated -- so it makes me wonder....
> 
> If we look at an area that has significantly more rainfall per year than Utah - let's say western New York just for fun (51" of rain per year)- wouldn't they naturally use less water than a place that receives 5-15 inches annually?
> 
> Ask someone from western New York if they could help you design a sprinkler system, and they'll give you some funny looks. Tell them you're going to xeriscape your yard, and see if they have a clue what you're talking about.
> 
> Again, I don't know how that water use is calculated, so maybe I'm way off base here. I don't know. I just feel that this is a very skewed statistic. I mean, we can look at John Stockton and say that he was the career leader in assists and steals. Karl Malone is number 2 in career points. Guess what? Stockton is #4 and Malone is #1 in all time turnovers.
> 
> Right, or wrong, we use more simply because we don't have a surplus of it freely watering our xeriscapes.
> 
> I'd wager that I probably use more gasoline (diesel) than a person that doesn't own a vehicle too.


Yes of course we use more water because it is more dry here, which is further a bigger problem. We are alcoholics on a beer budget that have a taste for fine wine. There is PLENTY this state could do to better incentivize and help the usage per capita of water. Both in municipalities and agriculture.


----------



## Vanilla

These minor storms aren’t doing much for us around the state. Mostly just keeping us steady in our “too little water” state. Which I guess is better than nothing if we’re trying to make lemonade here. 

There are more systems forecasted the next 10 days. Let’s hope they bring something a little more. That one a couple weeks ago did a decent amount of good. We could use another like it.


----------



## Vanilla

The last three weeks, and the last 72 hours in particular, have been incredibly helpful. 

See where we were at in January 22 to where we are this morning. Still drought conditions, but we are better off than we were a few weeks ago. That’s for sure! I’ll be interested to see where we are come Thursday morning.


----------



## MooseMeat

It might not appear this way in the valley currently, but this last storm BURIED the mountains in central utah. Places I could easily get into with my truck last weekend, even in the upper foothills was not even close to accessible yesterday morning. I was pushing snow with the bumper in places it was bone dry 3 days prior. 

Ps side note: for those who were wondering, every buck I saw yesterday, including a mid 180s and a couple upper 170s, had both sides, so don’t get too fired up just yet. Deer look like they are in good condition right now. If they can keep it up for another 2 months we should be in good shape! Don’t chase them just yet.


----------



## backcountry

We got a slow and steady rain in Cedar than snow. Warming back up but was seriously needed. Haven't looked at detail information of mountain yet but looks like a bump from KSL charts

Friends just had to "evacuate" house in Austin because of 6" of snow and wide scale power outage. Poor things have a newborn in a historic brick house. Not much down there is designed to weather big snowstorms.


----------



## Vanilla

The last few days have been immensely helpful across the whole state. Make no mistake, some areas are still in pretty bad shape overall, but boy how the last few days have turned the tides!


----------



## ridgetop

looks like things are not so bad after all. Time to move onto a new subject to worry about.


----------



## taxidermist

ridgetop said:


> looks like things are not so bad after all. Time to move onto a new subject to worry about.


Flooding?? That's all we need.  If the spring time months are warm and dryer than normal, these last storms wont make a bit of difference.


----------



## Vanilla

taxidermist said:


> Flooding?? That's all we need.  If the spring time months are warm and dryer than normal, these last storms wont make a bit of difference.


True. Even with the storms forecasted in the next couple weeks, if that rounds out our year, we're still very screwed. I'm not sure we're out of the woods on water for animals, fish, and people yet.


----------



## Vanilla

ridgetop said:


> looks like things are not so bad after all. Time to move onto a new subject to worry about.


If you want something different to think about, it could be in some specific areas we got too much snow too quickly, and that could impact animals.


----------



## backcountry

Pretty much all regions are doing better. Several drainage are actually doing great. But many are still behind especially when you consider last year's massive deficits. 

We may be laughing in the spring that we were ever concerned. 1-2 more big storms could catch up the entire state, or even overwhelm a drainage or two. Only time will tell but I'd be extremely happy for the climate forecasts for the southern portion of the state to have been wrong.


----------



## Vanilla

We’re still pretty bleak in most places.


----------



## PBH

It was a beautiful day yesterday here in Cedar City. Very "not typical" for this time of year.

I took the key out and turned on one of my valves, hooked the hose to the faucet and to the distribution line, and turned the water on so that my trees could all get a drink. I walked the line to verify all the heads had flowing water.

I only found 2 trees that are dead (white pine), and 1 other that is looking very bleak (emerald green arborvitae). :x


The cut at Castle Rock is high and dry.
The boat ramp at Bullfrog is high and dry.

Our water situation is really sucking, and all these "storms" just keep falling apart leaving the weather man looking like a buffoon. 






The positive? Softball season started -- which means we should see crappy weather pick up by next week. Let's pray for rain. Fish like water.


----------



## Daisy

Climatic models are forecasting above average, to well above average temps for Utah for the next 13 months. Precip and subsequent drought forecast is for below average values now until Nov/Dec.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

GSL was at an elevation of 4192.7 yesterday. The historic low is 4191.4. Unless the weather pattern changes, we will see and likely pass the historic low in August or September this year.


----------



## 2full

It was a great day in Cedar yesterday. Rob and I played golf without jackets. Well.....I tried to play...
And I got my other garden spot ready to put in the peas and a couple of other early plant items. 

Today we are going to make a 4 wheeler run at his cabin. We should not even be thinking about that yet. We need some more storms for sure. ASAP


----------



## 2full

Well.......we made it into Rob's cabin. And it wasn't even a test. 
Only got stuck once, and that was while goofing off and easy to get out of. 
We should not be able to even get close this time of year. Let alone waltz in. 

EVERYBODY needs to do their naked rain dances weekly. 
Or its going to get ugly. :shock:


----------



## bowgy

2full said:


> Well.......we made it into Rob's cabin. And it wasn't even a test.
> Only got stuck once, and that was while goofing off and easy to get out of.
> We should not be able to even get close this time of year. Let alone waltz in.
> 
> EVERYBODY needs to do their naked rain dances weekly.
> Or its going to get ugly. :shock:


Yes we need some more snow. Didn't get much yesterday.

Hey 2full, are you fully retired now?


----------



## 2full

Yep, I am unemployed now.........last Friday was my last day. 
So far, so good. It does seem weird to not be going after all the years.


----------



## bowgy

2full said:


> Yep, I am unemployed now.........last Friday was my last day.
> So far, so good. It does seem weird to not be going after all the years.


I want to be like you, hopefully in a year or two.


----------



## Critter

I highly recommend retirement. Been retired for 13 years now and have done more fun stuf in those years than I did in the previous 40.

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

For years I relied on NOAA 3-7 day forecasts for the region and they served me well. Now, I'll keep an eye on the 72 hour forecast and rarely does the precipitation pan out. Yet another storm fizzled this week. I don't think their historic data is serving these modern trends well for forecasting at all.

The long term trends are ugly. NOAA is still better than most for medium to long term trends and it continues to look bleak.

I will say....me dancing anywhere naked won't bring snow so much as laughter and tears. And that's just with an audience of one 😁


----------



## Vanilla

These storms appear to be helping us just barely hang on above really bad levels. I must say, anything in the 70% or higher seems like a win after where we were in early January. 

Still not ideal, but it could be worse.


----------



## PBH

It's crazy that will all that snow / moisture we received over the weekend, that SouthWest Utah is still at only 63%. We had all of our softball games cancelled Friday and Saturday in St. George because of snow! The fields were soggy. And yet, 63%. 

maybe this week will get us up to 70%? 


The good news is that the Beaver got hit good. That is good news for Minersville, but may still not be good enough.

We also got hit hard on the Boulder, and in southeast Utah. Again, good news for Lake Powell, but my still not be good enough. Below average snowpack on top of an already low lake could spell big problems by this time next year.


----------



## backcountry

Everything in Colorado is tracking low as well though a little better than Utah. Powell could be in horrible shape unless we get massive April storms. 

It's been great to see snow in Cedar even if it doesn't catch us up. My backyard had 1" of fine dust until this last storm series. It's never been like that since we bought the property.

Fingers crossed for the rest of the season and hopefully a real monsoon materializes this summer.


----------



## Vanilla

Well, eastern and SE Utah just got a big boost! Dang. The rest of us not so much.


----------



## backcountry

Desperate down here. And crazy warm for the beginning of April.


----------



## backcountry

No real monsoon last year and spring turned out to be much dryer than normal as NOAA predicted. Be safe with your campfires while they are allowed folks. Those are frightening figures for southern utah:



















Iron County water district, local mayors host drought presentation, suggest 3 simple ways to save water


CEDAR CITY — Amid the dire drought conditions currently plaguing Utah and other Western states, officials in Iron County are encouraging residents to do their part to conserve water. “It’s a significant drought that we are in,” Paul Monroe, general manager of the Central Iron County Water...




www.stgeorgeutah.com


----------



## Vanilla

They are projecting the reservoirs on the Colorado River system will reach the lowest levels they’ve ever seen since they filled them. Crazy to think about that. Things really are in bad, bad shape. I would say hope for a really wet summer, but I think we all know that isn’t likely to happen.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Fortunately I had the foresight to stockpile a bunch of ammo the past few years. This drought won't stand a chance against my badass white boy attitude and my AR15!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,

I saw earlier this year that the drought contingency plans kicked in. I feel for downriver states that rely on these flows but luckily many of them have been prepping for ages. 









Upper Colorado River Drought Plan Triggered For First Time


The 24-month study released in January by the Bureau of Reclamation, which projects two years of operations at the river’s biggest reservoirs, showed Lake Powell possibly dipping below an elevation of 3,525 feet above sea level in 2022.




www.kpbs.org









__





Redirect Notice






www.google.com


----------



## backcountry

Models are synchronizing around this sad projection:


----------



## colorcountrygunner

How about that storm we had yesterday, eh? Nice, gentle rain aaaaallllll day long in northern Utah and southern Idaho.


----------



## PBH

colorcountrygunner said:


> How about that storm we had yesterday, eh?


We got a whole bunch of wind!!


OK - I guess it rained some here too. But it was disappointing. It's still raining this morning -- but I'll just venture a guess that when I go feed the horse it isn't even muddy. I'd sure love to wake up to a foot of snow on the ground....


----------



## 2full

The Snotell site shows 9 inches of new snow on Midway this am. SUU ranch only shows 2 inches. Brian Head and Kolob sites are down. Probably due to the high winds ??
Anything and everything helps for sure. 
I was at the cabin on Sunday and the grass and flowers were starting to pop. 
As dry as it was already, this will help that a bunch. 
But won't fill the ponds up at all. Everything is just getting soaked in.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Everg time we get storm up here, I always ask my dad what's going on down Cedar way. The news is always disappointing.


----------



## backcountry

We got steady rain at our house in Cedar much of Monday and Tuesday. We likely lost some of the moisture to wind but I'll take it. I feel somewhat bad that my lawn is still brown compared to my neighbors but I refuse to start watering heavily this early in the season during such a serious drought. 

Only good news from the drought is that it so bad that the invasive lawn burs and mustard aren't even really taking hold this year.


----------



## PBH

backcountry said:


> Only good news from the drought is that it so bad that the invasive lawn burs and mustard aren't even really taking hold this year.


Prior to starting construction on our home in June last year, we had a beautiful 10 acre carpet of bur buttercup.  
I have been a little worried about how to deal with it. So far with the dry winter / spring, I've felt pretty fortunate that they really haven't sprung up.


Until now. 
those little bass terds were just waiting for some moisture. Now they are going to pop! I guess I'll spend my next couple paychecks on on 2-4d.


----------



## 2full

If they are young enough 2-4D will take them out. 
I like to use 4 speed XT on the ***" things. It has trychlopar in it plus 2-4D. And it works great on anything viney or woody. And is safe in grass. 
Only takes 1 1/2 ounces per gallon.


----------



## backcountry

They are evil incarnate. But I guess I should be grateful I have only a shy half acre of them.


----------



## backcountry

The latest in a quality series of articles of water in Iron Co dropped today. Not surprisingly our regions water use jumped noticeably in 2020. Given the drought and the number of green lawns I'm guess 2021 will be an even bigger one. The political leaders are overly optimistic in my book but at least the conversation is happening. My number of carwash indicator is telling me they are still behind the curve (I know, they supposedly recycle their water). 









The Water Tap: The ups, downs and many numbers of Cedar City's 2020 Water Report


It's all a jumbled numbers game. But data presented this week show water use rising while the aquifer drops.



www.thespectrum.com





Hopefully our county gets it's act together as it's been obvious for a long time that our situation is unsustainable. And nothing makes that as obvious as the last 18 months of drought and heat.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Took a ride back on the mountain today to see if it was not as bad as expected, and yikes. While sure the grass is beginning to green, and mobility to some spots is still unattainable due to snow. I did get to some areas I kind of know what to expect. Lowest water levels at this point I’ve ever seen. Some of the smaller lakes and reservoirs will never even reach the dams to be drained in any way. Some snow left, but water levels at the lake made it look like winter didn’t even happen. Sad stuff. Without a wet spring/summer things are going to end up in absolutely horrible shape. If 21-22 winter doesn’t shape up to be an absolute slammer of a winter.....I really don’t know. The soil is so dry, the runoff just isn’t there or making it to the lakes and reservoirs. Not an ounce of water will be drained from plenty of high mountain lakes this year though, and I’ve never seen that or it look quite as bad as it’s about to.


----------



## backcountry

Early start to a rough year ahead. So dry. 









'This could be disaster': How locals battled a fire on Kolob Mountain before crews arrived


Lon Allen was about to leave his property on Saturday night when a plume of smoke caught his attention. Here's how locals fought a small wildfire near Zion.



www.thespectrum.com





Looks like SW counties are banning burns a month early. Smart move.


----------



## backcountry

Hit an unprojected 86F today in Cedar. It's only May 6th 😳😬


----------



## 2full

My phone is showing 83 right now at 4:00. My house gauge is showing 80. What site are you looking at ?


----------



## Vanilla

We were 89 on the car temp gauge in Utah County today.


----------



## backcountry

2full said:


> My phone is showing 83 right now at 4:00. My house gauge is showing 80. What site are you looking at ?


My house, so +/- 2 degrees. Hit 84F at airport. 

My default switched so I had to edit down the original post before you posted.


----------



## Critter

Your phone is going to be reporting from the nearest official weather station which is usually the airport. 

I haven't seen a smart phone lately that has a thermometer in it


----------



## backcountry

I have a stand alone digital thermometer in the shade with a +/-2 F range. I'm a dork. I'm probably going to buy a better weather station soon. My property runs about 1-3 degrees warmer than the airport this time of year; and it's not just sensor error range as I can feel a temperature and humidity shift on my daily stroll.

My app for some reason defaulted SW of Cedar City airport for some reason, hence edit. Probably related to a search I did the day before.


----------



## Critter

I know that with my weather station is that I am usually warmer than the airport station that is 4 miles away and it is the airport station that my phone gets its information from.

I had to play around with where I placed the outside sensor until I found a location that would pick up the actual temperature 

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


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## middlefork

70 degrees at 11:00 AM this morning at 7000' in Cache County. The snow is all but gone and very little sign of having been any run off. It looks to be pretty dry for this early.


----------



## middlefork




----------



## 2full

Critter said:


> Your phone is going to be reporting from the nearest official weather station which is usually the airport.
> 
> I haven't seen a smart phone lately that has a thermometer in it


Im aware.......I know my phone app is usually the airport .......that's why I'm wondering which website he was looking at. My home gauge is usually pretty close.to what that is showing. 
I know my phone doesn't have one, that's why I have a really good one at my house 🏘. 
Unfortunately, I'm kind of a weather freak. My employees always made fun of me.


----------



## Packout




----------



## 2full

Very ugly. It's already dry and dusty at my cabin.


----------



## 2full

Was up to the cabin this afternoon. The storm that went thru last nite pretty much missed Cedar mountain. Was just enough to erase the tracks in the road is all. Nothing in my rain gauge 
It was dark up there several times, but nada. 
Would have been great timing. 
We just cannot get a break......

When I went to St George airport to pick up my wife last night, it rained all the way off the Black Ridge. 
Hard rain a couple of times. 

I said in another thread last month that we all needed to do our naked rain dances 😜


----------



## middlefork

I think my naked rain dances have been a hindrance rather than help.

If all the believers start praying we should have epic flooding this monsoon season.


----------



## DallanC

middlefork said:


> I think my naked rain dances have been a hindrance rather than help.












-DallanC


----------



## ridgetop

Can someone explain how he zero percentage works? There's obviously a few feet of snow still up in the stansburys. Why would it be zero percent?


----------



## Critter

Very little water content

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


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## Packout

Ridge- my understanding is the report reflects the current conditions at the many snowtel sites located across the regions. If there is no snow at the sites, and there should be, think how much more snow should be in the areas that still have some. 

AF River should be running around 170 cfs. It has averaged less than 40 cfs the past week. 75% of what it should be.....


----------



## middlefork

Packout said:


> Ridge- my understanding is the report reflects the current conditions at the many snowtel sites located across the regions. If there is no snow at the sites, and there should be, think how much more snow should be in the areas that still have some.
> 
> AF River should be running around 170 cfs. It has averaged less than 40 cfs the past week. 75% of what it should be.....


This. It is all based on snotel sites.





__





Conditions Map






www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


----------



## Vanilla

I just saw a report that Lake Powell is projected to be 12 feet lower in December 2021 than the lowest month the reservoir has ever been on record. (March 2005) Which means basically every month from summer through the fall (and beyond?) will set a new record low until we come out of this drought. 

Even with “runoff” (or this year, lack thereof) going there are saying outflow exceeds inflow.
Southern Utah is in ROUGH shape!


----------



## ridgetop

Packout said:


> Ridge- my understanding is the report reflects the current conditions at the many snowtel sites located across the regions. If there is no snow at the sites, and there should be, think how much more snow should be in the areas that still have some.
> 
> AF River should be running around 170 cfs. It has averaged less than 40 cfs the past week. 75% of what it should be.....


That makes sense


----------



## backcountry

I'm all for people embracing their religious beliefs in whatever way provides them value. But is this really the answer from the state (and my local commissioner)? Is the state really not going to embrace a meaningful role and accept that they can do more to encourage more water conservation during this historic drought? Wether you believe in it or not prayer inherently relies on the choices outside ourselves at a time in which we desperately need citizens and government to be proactive. This isn't incompatible with water conservation but it doesn't appear to me the governor (on down) are concurrently redoubling their efforts to sincerely deal with this crisis.

Just shaking my head. There are viable options for state and local leaders that abide by whatever political viewpoint they may hold. But solely focusing on divine intervention without challenging us at the same time to rise to the occasion is at best a missed opportunity for real leadership.









Cox calls for prayers for rain as more Utah communities issue emergency declarations, restrictions


Gov. Spencer Cox on Thursday called on Utahns to pray for rain this weekend as Utah's drought conditions continue to worsen.




www.ksl.com


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I'm all for people embracing their religious beliefs in whatever way provides them value. But is this really the answer from the state (and my local commissioner)? Is the state really not going to embrace a meaningful role and accept that they can do more to encourage more water conservation during this historic drought? Wether you believe in it or not prayer inherently relies on the choices outside ourselves at a time in which we desperately need citizens and government to be proactive. This isn't incompatible with water conservation but it doesn't appear to me the governor (on down) are concurrently redoubling their efforts to sincerely deal with this crisis.
> 
> Just shaking my head. There are viable options for state and local leaders that abide by whatever political viewpoint they may hold. But solely focusing on divine intervention without challenging us at the same time to rise to the occasion is at best a missed opportunity for real leadership.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cox calls for prayers for rain as more Utah communities issue emergency declarations, restrictions
> 
> 
> Gov. Spencer Cox on Thursday called on Utahns to pray for rain this weekend as Utah's drought conditions continue to worsen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ksl.com



IDK, with respect to governor Cox, he declared a water emergency a month ago IIRC, so he has spent a lot of his bullets already on the problem. From what I understand of Utah water law, he is somewhat limited in additional action, as local water users and rights holders have more power to call the shots. Additionally, attempts at perceived "overrreach" by Cox would send his right wing into a froth, similar to pandemic measures. Therefore, I see no harm whatsoever in this action. Can we do more? Of course, but a lot of it is going to have to come from municipalities and other users. 

Now, if Cedar gets a good soaking rain this weekend, I have two young friends with a message for you..........................


----------



## backcountry

😁. I'm fine with divine intervention as an agnostic. But I'll expect empirical proof of its existence before I'm converted 😁

I guess I'm at a different point. If you aren't willing to risk political capital to push for better water conservation during this drought than step aside. And I recognize he's done some things but not to the scale of the emergency. And there are ways to appeal to everyone but anarchist and the most extreme of libertarians on this issue.

Why not run a very public water conservation summit with explicit goals and time-frames that are voluntary but public? 

American Fork had a successful campaign that solely challenged citizens to skip one month of lawn watering. Imagine if the Governor simply challenged all Utahns to consider doing so? No "coercion" just a shared sacrifice for a shared destiny. 

Why not create a public/private partnership campaign that expanded their waterwise campaign that already focuses on municipalities? High profile prizes from businesses like free xeriscaping for winners with entrees solely requiring bills that show water use dropping during the summer of 2021 compared to 2020?

It just seems to me state and local leadership are failing to account for immediate steps that can be taken to conserve water this year. I know my local leadership is working on a pipeline but that's a long term goal for growth. They showed no real public interest in rising to this occasion this year. And all the while we see our number of car washes almost doubling in a single year and long lines everyday! (I know they recycle water but there is waste with every vehicle)

And when that doesn't happen then the Governor's bully pulpit can be used in some pretty eloquent ways. And I'd love to see a real statesman step up and risk reelection because they had the audacity to truly challenge us to do better. 

But political courage seems to be rare anymore even with something as universal as water security. It just seems like our government largely has its head down with no energy to instill innovation and shared focus on this very real threat to our state.


----------



## backcountry

And to clarify, I sincerely believe our leadership at every level (with rare exceptions) is missing a rare opportunity that has immense potential to unite us at a desperate moment we need that.

And I recognize the realism in your reply, Catherder. And there is reason for politicians to be gun shy after last year's painful example. This is just the second (if not third) drought and state I've lived in that doesn't seem to want to face some of unfortunate realities of water security. Not a big fan of kicking the can down the road on this one and we had an opportunity to instill some new behaviors in citizens. So much missed potential 😣


----------



## Catherder

A lot of those ideas are worth consideration. I would hope and expect additional action as the emergency continues. Nevertheless, Cox's role in many areas is more advisory, once the emergency declaration has been made. I firmly agree with you about the criticism of local leadership, especially since many do have the stronger ability to actually regulate usage. In our area, I've seen little from local leadership besides some pablum that you "might want to use less water" this year. Here is Cox's declaration and guidance given at the time. I found it a decent start. 

Gov. Cox issues drought Executive Order 



backcountry said:


> And to clarify, I sincerely believe our leadership at every level (with rare exceptions) is missing a rare opportunity that has immense potential to unite us at a desperate moment we need that.


I guess in this respect I am more cynical than you. For too many of us, anything that sniffs of being "liburl", "conservative", or taking away from some poorly perceived "rights" will be rejected out of hand. The pandemic emergency (sadly) demonstrated that all too clearly.


----------



## PBH

Catherder said:


> Now, if Cedar gets a good soaking rain this weekend, I have two young friends with a message for you..........................



hmmm....Not planning on a conversion I guess. We aren't going to get a soaking any time in the next week...


----------



## colorcountrygunner

I think the only one's that are gonna get a good soaking this weekend are some lucky kids at BYU. If you don't know what "soaking" means in regards to BYU students you probably shouldn't try to find out haha. Probably some kind of urban legend anyway...probably...


----------



## backcountry

Where's that ten foot pole.....

To the conversion, that window closed decades ago and is more of a lost cause than hoping politicians work together right now to foster real solutions for drought. But I'm pretty sure I'm on whatever version of the "no fly list" exists as the front door attempts ended a decade ago. Maybe it was my wife crying out of confusion the first time it happened that put the kibosh on trying. 🤣

But I'd definitely take divine intervention about now. Forecasts for 90F, single digit humidity and 30+ mph gusts with these soil moisture levels are not a great sign if someone tries to have a campfire this weekend.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Just shaking my head. There are viable options for state and local leaders that abide by whatever political viewpoint they may hold. *But solely focusing on divine intervention without challenging us at the same time* to rise to the occasion is at best a missed opportunity for real leadership.


You are a guy that hyper-focuses on words people use and fixate over periods of time returning back to specific wording. I’ll allow you to correct this yourself. That word “solely” used here is very problematic if we care about facts. If we don’t, well, it doesn’t matter much.


----------



## Catherder

These TV news stories typically lack a lot of substance, but this one at least superficially covered some of the points discussed above. 









Statewide water mandates unlikely; restrictions could be considered if drought persists


The severe and widespread drought has many asking why the government isn't taking more statewide action in the Beehive State. Caption: KUTV: Kelly Vaughen reports After Utah Gov. Spencer Cox called for a statewide prayer for rain Thursday, some water conservationists said there is more action...




kutv.com


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,

To be honest, I actually like the accidental homonym so I'm not going to change it. It's making me laugh that I didn't catch it sooner.

But you are correct, it's not accurate as he's done other things as well, ie not "only". I made a mistake there. (Edit: this ironically incorrect and my use of "solely" was not only correct but an accurate reflection of the video linked.)

It would have just been better to say I find his current approach tepid at best and an example of politicians not displaying courage during an emergency that affects us all. If he was a faith leader I wouldn't care about the address being primarily a call to community prayer but as an elected official I expect a more direct appeal to government and civil action. And I find his overall approach underwhelming given the state of affairs. My criticisms of my local commissioner (s) is/are much harsher.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder,

Interesting article.

Statewide restrictions would definitely be a huge hurdle in Utah, one that I don't think would succeed and tee up the fights you insinuated. 

I wish there were state incentives for my municipality to restrict water at city and county level. That's the sort of effort I'd love to see. Honey not vinegar works well here though that would still attract complaints of "big government waste". 

Cox has done what I consider the minimal work needed, including declarations. I would like to see a leader in our faces every week bluntly talking about the situation while encouraging hope through innovation and shared sacrifice. That's small government conservativism I grew up with. It might be a pipe dream now though. To be honest, I'm absolutely appalled that this isn't getting more coverage here but that as much a reflection of Iron County culture as it is anything else. I think I'm getting old and wishing for a sense of shared purpose that just may no longer exist.

I'm not sure anyone else on the scene would do better than Cox with this issue but we need better nonetheless. The implications of this drought are both immediate and far reaching for all of us.


----------



## Vanilla

I’m confused. Hardly a single day has passed the last month where at least one of our Utah news agencies didn’t run a story on our dire drought conditions, and every single one includes quotes from the Governor, mayors and others around the state, all asking us to hold off watering and to take this seriously.

An example from over a month ago:








Utah governor calls for water conservation amid dry conditions


SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) – Amid extremely dry conditions across Utah, Governor Spencer Cox has issued an executive order to enact water conservation at all state facilities. The order forbids ir…



www.google.com





10 days later:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.heraldextra.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/utah-governor-issues-second-executive-order-as-drought-continues/article_efbbc0fc-eda8-57eb-8242-38277ccccc7a.amp.html



From this week, with a very clear warning:








Early Shutdown Likely for Pineview Water Systems Customers


A lush, healthy-looking lawn may not be a viable option this year, at least in areas covered by Pineview Water Systems. General manager, Ben Quick said the situation is dire.




ksltv.com




I could literally post dozens of articles from the last few weeks over various outlets talking about the drought. I’m sorry you’re not seeing the coverage, but it’s been out there.


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## backcountry

You and I disagree on how a governor can use his messaging, that is fine. I've listed examples of creative solutions and messaging. And I've admitted it could be a result of how messaging is filtered through platforms in Iron County. 

Other than that Vanilla, I'm not interested in having one of historic tit-for-tats tonight. Have a good night.


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## middlefork

Vanilla said:


> I’m confused. Hardly a single day has passed the last month where at least one of our Utah news agencies didn’t run a story on our dire drought conditions, and every single one includes quotes from the Governor, mayors and others around the state, all asking us to hold off watering and to take this seriously.
> 
> An example from over a month ago:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Utah governor calls for water conservation amid dry conditions
> 
> 
> SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) – Amid extremely dry conditions across Utah, Governor Spencer Cox has issued an executive order to enact water conservation at all state facilities. The order forbids ir…
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 10 days later:
> 
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.heraldextra.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/utah-governor-issues-second-executive-order-as-drought-continues/article_efbbc0fc-eda8-57eb-8242-38277ccccc7a.amp.html
> 
> 
> 
> From this week, with a very clear warning:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Early Shutdown Likely for Pineview Water Systems Customers
> 
> 
> A lush, healthy-looking lawn may not be a viable option this year, at least in areas covered by Pineview Water Systems. General manager, Ben Quick said the situation is dire.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ksltv.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I could literally post dozens of articles from the last few weeks over various outlets talking about the drought. I’m sorry you’re not seeing the coverage, but it’s been out there.


This! Water systems/districts are the ones who will control water use. Not the Governor. I'm not sure the state actually has the ability to control use. Water rights being what they are.


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## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> You and I disagree on how a governor can use his messaging, that is fine. I've listed examples of creative solutions and messaging. And I've admitted it could be a result of how messaging is filtered through platforms in Iron County.
> 
> Other than that Vanilla, I'm not interested in having one of historic tit-for-tats tonight. Have a good night.


I’m simply replying to your baseless and unsupported claims.You began by saying that you objected to the Governor relying solely on a higher power. That was shown to be patently false. You agreed. Then your message changed to being appalled this not getting any coverage. I’ve shown that to be objectively false as well.

Now you admit to just objecting to the message. If you just started with you not liking an elected official talking about prayer, we could have got to the point we are at now much more quickly. Lead with the real reason next time. That way we can just disagree in principle from outset instead of me having to prove you objectively and factually wrong. Much easier for everyone that way...

I think Governor Cox has been a fantastic leader. Even on the drought issue, he’s doing what he can in his position. I applaud him. It’s us that need to change our ways, not him. And he’s clearly told us that many times now.


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## backcountry

Middlefork, I agree on control hence my shock and disinterest in the linked articles state restriction remark. I'm more interested in using the pulpit differently. There are ways to encourage innovation and conservation without exerting control.

My area is lagging way behind on this but even the remarks about lawn watering in the linked articles are largely default recommendations from the state agencies. I've followed the water agencies lawn watering recommendations for years and 2 a week is very common. 

I can look at the various water wise programs and see how far we have to go. Most municipalities don't have incentives for removing parking strip turf. Our county only has incentives for toilets and timers. 

I'm clearly approaching this differently than others and I'm in the minority. I can live with that. It's a product of several things including my region and how media percolates through even my bubble. So it goes.


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## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> I’m simply replying to your baseless and unsupported claims.You began by saying that you objected to the Governor relying solely on a higher power. That was shown to be patently false. You agreed. Then your message changed to being appalled this not getting any coverage. I’ve shown that to be objectively false as well.
> 
> Now you admit to just objecting to the message. If you just started with you not liking an elected official talking about prayer, we could have got to the point we are at now much more quickly. Lead with the real reason next time. That way we can just disagree in principle from outset instead of me having to prove you objectively and factually wrong. Much easier for everyone that way...
> 
> I think Governor Cox has been a fantastic leader. Even on the drought issue, he’s doing what he can in his position. I applaud him. It’s us that need to change our ways, not him. And he’s clearly told us that many times now.


And there is your classic misrepresentation of my idea. You spent a fair amount of time last year trying to approach fellow users differently then pre-pandemic. I'm sorry you choose now to resort to baseless accusations. I am 100% not against politicians encouraging prayer. I stated so sincerely and I stick to that. That is a fabrication on your part. I am disappointed he didn't use that explicit moment to also message about government and civil behavior.

Take care, Vanilla. Treat me and misrepresent my ideas however you want.


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## 2full

Just an FYI......
I was up to my cabin on Cedar Mountain this afternoon. Just got home. 
We got about 2 dozen drops about 2:00. And about 1 dozen drops about 3. That was it !!!
Was dark all around and looked like it was hitting over towards highway 89. 
Total Bummer 👎


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## backcountry

Those were some foreboding clouds for a while. I'm trying to see the bright side that maybe we'll get some monsoon build up this year. I'd just love the afternoon respite the clouds provide even if we don't get rain.

But, that just may be too optimistic.

Anybody know of annual precipitation site like the snotel winter percentages? I'm a big enough dork that I'd be curious to follow year round percentages.


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## Vanilla

2full said:


> Just an FYI......
> I was up to my cabin on Cedar Mountain this afternoon. Just got home.
> We got about 2 dozen drops about 2:00. And about 1 dozen drops about 3. That was it !!!
> Was dark all around and looked like it was hitting over towards highway 89.
> Total Bummer 👎


Prayers are already working! All you heathens need to pick it up!!!!


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## Vanilla

You can say what you want, but tonight we prayed as a family for rain. My 8 year old said the prayer.

Less than 5 minutes later after tucking her in and turning out the lights, rain drops were falling on our windows and she’s yelling from her room, “Daddy, it worked! It’s raining!!!”

Again, say what you want. Believe what you want. I believe we could use some divine intervention. And we’re all in on that over here.

#prayforrain


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## backcountry

I for the life of me couldn't figure out how I went astray in my response to the video. So I watched it again and reviewed my original post. And there it was, Cox's own words (emphasis mine):



> I’ve already asked all Utahns to conserve water by avoiding long showers, fixing leaky faucets, and planting water-wise landscapes. *But I fear those efforts alone won’t be enough to protect us*











Gov. Cox invites Utahns to pray for rain June 4-6


SALT LAKE CITY (June 3, 2021) – Gov. Spencer J. Cox is inviting all Utahns to join him in praying for rain to relieve our state from the current drought. “I’ve already asked all Utahns to conserve water by avoiding long showers, fixing leaky faucets, and planting water-wise landscapes. But I...



governor.utah.gov





In the governor's own words he admits publicly it's not enough. So I reread my post and it stands correct. Cox's sole remedy to the current situation being inadequate is communal prayer. And here's my sentence in question:



> But solely focusing on divine intervention *without challenging us at the same time *to rise to the occasion is at best a missed opportunity for real leadership.


As well, I said



> This* [communal prayer] *isn't incompatible with water conservation but it doesn't appear to me the governor (on down) are *concurrently redoubling* their efforts to sincerely deal with this crisis.


Not only was my assessment accurate but there's undeniable proof that Cox also agrees that the "efforts" he's encouraged in previous outreach "won't be enough".

I expect my political leaders to step up and do enough. And they can do that alongside calling for communal prayer.


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## backcountry

Vanilla,

I'm glad you find value in that and could create that meaningful experience with your family. As I've said to you before, I have no doubt those moments are profound for you and I sincerely hope y'all continue to have them together. I genuinely believe that's beautiful and value those in my community who do the same.

PS....I was editing my previous post while you were posting. The timing was not intentional.


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> I'm all for people embracing their religious beliefs in whatever way provides them value. But is this really the answer from the state (and my local commissioner)? Is the state really not going to embrace a meaningful role and accept that they can do more to encourage more water conservation during this historic drought? Wether you believe in it or not prayer inherently relies on the choices outside ourselves at a time in which we desperately need citizens and government to be proactive. This isn't incompatible with water conservation but it doesn't appear to me the governor (on down) are concurrently redoubling their efforts to sincerely deal with this crisis.
> 
> Just shaking my head. There are viable options for state and local leaders that abide by whatever political viewpoint they may hold. But solely focusing on divine intervention without challenging us at the same time to rise to the occasion is at best a missed opportunity for real leadership.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cox calls for prayers for rain as more Utah communities issue emergency declarations, restrictions
> 
> 
> Gov. Spencer Cox on Thursday called on Utahns to pray for rain this weekend as Utah's drought conditions continue to worsen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ksl.com


Well, I’m sure the record breaking temps and dry forecast will change because of this weekend of prayer backcountry. Water conservation incentives, changing state water policy in meaningful ways, investing heavily in better water conservation, and you know maybe acknowledging climate change and predictions of a warming climate are getting worse, and only going to get worse might be a more pragmatic approach. But hey. I guess we can build a pipeline that works until Lake Powell is gone, and build more reservoirs that dry out the already disappearing Great Salt Lake. The problem with water conservation in the state is there’s no actual approach to actually conserving water. The state just looks for ways it can find and use more water. With a warming climate, continual record breaking temps, and droughts well....eventually reality will have to be faced. It might be time to start coming to grips with it ASAP. We are in trouble, and it’s worse than I’ve ever seen it. It’s June 4th.

You know what rarely if ever comes in June? Rain. I hope the forecast changes, but it’s time to start thinking about full firework bans, and things to avoid some potentially really bad fire issues soon.


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## backcountry

Agree in fireworks ban but I'm not hopeful.

Here is an interesting and developing situation caused by severe drought.









Irrigators say they plan to force open Klamath headgates and release water


A pair of Klamath Project irrigators and their supporters say they intend to break into federal property and open the controls that are preventing water from Upper Klamath Lake from going to farms and ranches.



www.opb.org





It's an interesting case study of what can happen once we start to deal with the true medium to long term impacts down the road. I hope agencies and stakeholders in Utah are doing their best to facilitate buy in and understanding so we don't see more of these conflicts down the road. I know Ammon's sphere of influence includes communities in Utah and I'd assume never see a standoff happen here.


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## middlefork

You would have to think that this scenario could play out on any system that is connected to the Bureau of Reclamation. And it shows how difficult change will be. I found this quote interesting.

"Grant Knoll said the crux of the matter is a disagreement between how state water law and federal regulations are interpreted, and he and Nielsen don’t feel like they’re getting a speedy solution.
“We think that the state right is supreme in deciding how the water gets distributed,’” Knoll said.
And legal efforts to get that belief validated in court have come up short.
“Your merits of what you’re trying to argue never get heard,” Knoll said. “So the frustration is building because we want to use the legal system and if the legal system’s failing you, what’s next?”
It appears that what’s next is another standoff with the federal government over water in the Klamath Basin."


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## backcountry

I tend to agree, Middlefork. The potential is lurking in every water system that over allocated, which is a large percentage in the West. 

Glad not to be in that particular area right now.


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## backcountry

USFS includes natural causes in PR release. Like folks on FB said, looks like lightening strike ignition.


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## backcountry

Cedar is finally taking a step, though it's only voluntary and should have been started in March. This drought has been known for so long that these types of responses are likely too little too late.


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## bowgy

backcountry said:


> Cedar is finally taking a step, though it's only voluntary and should have been started in March. This drought has been known for so long that these types of responses are likely too little too late.


I still don't fully understand the need for existing homes to conserve while building new homes is going crazy, if they have enough water for all the new homes going in and around cedar they have enough for the existing homes.

I should reword that to say if they don't have enough for existing homes they don't have enough for new homes.


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## backcountry

I don't disagree but Cedar will never have policy to restrict growth. It's not in the local DNA. They'll let the town grow until our aquifer runs dry.

Only option is reduce average use if they don't manage growth.

Id love to see new development be required to be water wise and restrictions on turf but I'm not holding my breathe. 

Cedar seems to just embrace driving off the drought cliff. So many creative solutions, so little interest.


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## PBH

what we need in Cedar is to stop voting in real estate agents to our city and county governments. We need representation that says "let's regress" vs. "let's progress". Only then will we curb growth.



FWIW -- this rainstorm is awesome!! I knew if we prayed long enough that they would be answered. Hopefully it doesn't just all come at once!! But, I've got my boat ready if we need it.



(maybe it was goat sacrifice??)


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## backcountry

I guess I know who you aren't voting for this autumn 😁


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## Daisy

Ninemile>>>>>drained, empty, nada.

Yuba>>>>>salvage limits now in effect

What is the name of that song by Queen?


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## PBH

Another one bites the dust...


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## DallanC

Weird. Over the 4th we camped in the high country at a lake in north east utah, it was as full as its ever been. A couple years ago, that lake was actually pretty low. I was expecting it to be much lower due to the low snow amounts. /shrug

We used to fish 9 Mile long ago, some bruisers in there back in the day (early 80s).

Gunnison will affect the waterfowl hunters the most. That was a goose hotspot.

-DallanC


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## Catherder

Bohemian Rhapsody?

Bish mi lah. No, where did the water go. 


Nine mile sometimes drains even in decent water years. Not a surprise it bit the dust. (not that this minimizes the severity of the situation.)


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## colorcountrygunner

Looks like today the southwestern region of Utah is in the bullseye for some heavy rains. Fingers crossed.


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## 2full

colorcountrygunner said:


> Looks like today the southwestern region of Utah is in the bullseye for some heavy rains. Fingers crossed.


Fingers, toes, and eyes crossed. 
On my way home last night it rained hard from Meeks gate to Jack"s corrals. Had the wipers on steady for a few minutes. 
But by the time I got to co-op it was dusty and dry. 
These summer storms are so very spotty.


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## backcountry

Lake Powell curtails houseboats, starts extending boat ramps amid drought, low water levels


Boating at Lake Powell is getting more difficult by the day as drought continues to take its toll behind Glen Canyon Dam. Here's the latest:



www.thespectrum.com





Banned houseboats at Powell 😬

How much $ do those behemoths generate for the region?


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