# Another Expo Thread



## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

We have talked about the Expo many times on here.. But...

If they allow nonres to put in for all the same tags as us AND give them their own poo as welll, because they "make the trip" to Utah and help our economy - Why not change it this year? No economic stimulation is occuring without the event happening. 

Or follow other states steep non res changes for things like the expo?

This year with no in-person validation I expect big numbers. I think we would see those same big numbers if we charged $20 for non-res applications. Realistically I prefer nonres only being able to apply for certain tags. Especially since it's usually just celebs drawing OIAL tags. 

What do you think? Where would you see an issue with this?


----------



## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

They already picked thier favorite buddies out as winners just waiting to announce it from the SFW's secret basement draw computer.

Good luck changing the system

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


----------



## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

Just a reminder that is 200 tags that would have increased a residents odds in the regular draw. But people keep supporting it.


----------



## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

I agree, I just don't see it changing... ever! It gets old seeing some folks that seem to get lucky year after year... Statistically, it's just not possible! 

That said, I know 4-5 people that have drawn that have nothing to do with SFW.


----------



## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Count me in that group, BigT. But I’m blacklisted now. It’s the only explanation why I haven’t drawn 3 or 4 tags. :grin:


----------



## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

BigT said:


> I agree, I just don't see it changing... ever! It gets old seeing some folks that seem to get lucky year after year... Statistically, it's just not possible!
> 
> That said, I know 4-5 people that have drawn that have nothing to do with SFW.


This guy I have seen on the mountain a few times has slammed a few giant elk.. I was never sure if he was paying for tags or what.

Turns out he has gotten FOUR expo elk tags.

So, it happens. Just not to me lol.


----------



## yak4fish (Nov 16, 2007)

Actually it would be a big financial win for the DWR if all the expo tag went to non residents. They pay much higher tag fees the residents.


----------



## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

yak4fish said:


> Actually it would be a big financial win for the DWR if all the expo tag went to non residents. They pay much higher tag fees the residents.


If it's about money just auction them all off, while we are at it let's change the rules so the state can do it all themselves and close the loop hole for SFW to profit off them.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


----------



## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Could you imagine the odds of drawing ANY tag this year, with not having to validate in person? 


If anyone has the list of successful draw results for the last five years, it would be interesting to see just how many of the same folks draw this year. Or, multiple permits since the birth of the Expo. Then see how/if they are affiliated with SFW, or donate $$$.


----------



## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

taxidermist said:


> Could you imagine the odds of drawing ANY tag this year, with not having to validate in person?
> 
> If anyone has the list of successful draw results for the last five years, it would be interesting to see just how many of the same folks draw this year. Or, multiple permits since the birth of the Expo. Then see how/if they are affiliated with SFW, or donate $$$.


I seem to remember #elkfromabove addressed this very question a year or two ago. I tried the search function but didn't find it. I know he found some but not a lot.

One thing about it there is no shortage of conspiracy theories on these sites. People keep complaining but they still keep participating. When it no longer makes money maybe it will end.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

taxidermist said:


> Could you imagine the odds of drawing ANY tag this year, with not having to validate in person?
> 
> If anyone has the list of successful draw results for the last five years, it would be interesting to see just how many of the same folks draw this year. Or, multiple permits since the birth of the Expo. Then see how/if they are affiliated with SFW, or donate $$$.


A couple weeks ago I was told their applications were down quite bit. Now that may have changed as the deadline approached.


----------



## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

I just don't see the Expo bringing in near the $$ it has in the past with not having the entrance fee to walk into the exhibit hall. I'm sure the auction of prime tags is what brings in the $$ though.


----------



## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

middlefork said:


> I seem to remember #elkfromabove addressed this very question a year or two ago. I tried the search function but didn't find it. I know he found some but not a lot.
> 
> One thing about it there is no shortage of conspiracy theories on these sites. People keep complaining but they still keep participating. When it no longer makes money maybe it will end.


Since 2007 when the draw started, there have been 240 repeat winners, but some of those drew more than one per year. However, a few years ago, the DWR eliminated the more than one per year rule, and now we only get about 5 or 6 repeaters because if they draw more than one, they have to choose which one they want and the other one is given to the second person in line. Last year (2020) there were 6 repeaters!

If things go as they have in the past, the draw should take place tomorrow at 9:00 am at the DWR State Office on the corner of Redwood Rd and North Temple in Salt Lake City, and the public is invited. However, the Covid issue may make it otherwise. In any case, we should have the results by Wed. and I'll update my list by Fri. or Sat. Stay tuned!


----------



## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

RandomElk16 said:


> This guy I have seen on the mountain a few times has slammed a few giant elk.. I was never sure if he was paying for tags or what.
> 
> Turns out he has gotten FOUR expo elk tags.
> 
> So, it happens. Just not to me lol.


Statistically speaking, this shouldn't be possible.. But good for that dude. I have a friend that's pulled an elk tag, and a antelope tag from the expo. He isn't a part of SFW, but he did work for Hoyt Archery but he was not the owner. He was an engineer. Still made me think if this was a coincidence or not.


----------



## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

BigT said:


> Statistically speaking, this shouldn't be possible.. But good for that dude. I have a friend that's pulled an elk tag, and a antelope tag from the expo. He isn't a part of SFW, but he did work for Hoyt Archery but he was not the owner. He was an engineer. Still made me think if this was a coincidence or not.


And so the Expo rumors start again :grin:.

According to the DWR records, there are 5 people that have pulled 3 Expo elk tags in the 14 years the Expo has been going, but NOBODY has pulled 4!

AND, just like the regular draw, each application gets a number so the computer doesn't know who's application it is when it picks the random numbers. The reason for the repeats is the draw is iRANDOM and most of the repeaters apply for most of the tags they are allowed, especially the SFW members. (I think they feel an obligation to apply because they know where the money is going.)

In any case, we'll probably have 5 or 6 repeaters again this year and some eyebrows will probably be raised again this year! Stay tuned!


----------



## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Assuming we had to keep the expo draw, I wish the expo draw would use the same company in Fallon that the state uses. That would be enough for me to believe that random truly meant random. I’m not saying I believe there is a conspiracy and this dude writes code in his basement to benefit certain people. But I’m also not saying he doesn’t. And therein lies one of the issues surrounding the whole deal. One of the many...


----------



## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

It’s hard to believe the $FW draw is 100% random, legit, honest and accurate, when they are adamant on continuing to keep doing business with the company conducting the draw and there is repeated successful applicants, who coincidentally have a recognizable name within the hunting industry and have ties to $FW and other conservation groups. It’s also hard to believe that those same people can successfully draw randomly with odds that are beyond terrible in the expo draw, and you don’t seem to see the same kind of random luck/success in the normal big game draw. Sure lightning strikes twice for a dude every now and then in the state draw and he pulls a couple random LE tags throughout his lifetime, but very very very rarely are they doing it consecutive years on high value tags and units. It just seems too coincidental for all the stars to align perfectly for these people in the expo draw with, in theory, worse draw odds than the state draws, but the same scenario doesn’t happen this often with guys in the state draws, that have better odds, according to the yearly state published results.

But in reality it probably is legit and accurate. People who hate $FW, the expo and have negative opinions on the subject will always be critical and look for anything to be upset about and call bullchit on. I’m one of them. Speaking of which, Mr. Jon Bair hasn’t pulled a tag for a few years. He’s about due for another lucky streak. Maybe this will be his year for a moose or Henry’s deer tag.


----------



## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

I still remember the thread on Monster Muleys where folks were talking about how it's rigged and I believe it was Mr Bair who said that if it was rigged he would draw a sheep tag and then BAM, he draws a sheep tag that year. That was a classic! :grin:


----------



## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

elkfromabove said:


> And so the Expo rumors start again :grin:.
> 
> According to the DWR records, there are 5 people that have pulled 3 Expo elk tags in the 14 years the Expo has been going, but NOBODY has pulled 4!
> 
> ...


Maybe one of those years he was a double draw, but I am sure he said four and I know for a fact that he has gone on 3 of those hunts.

I have BIG conspiracies about the draw, and he doesn't fit them. He is just a beer drinking ******* frankly.

Not like the celebs and "associates" who draw OIAL and multi tags.


----------



## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

I will add.. in terms of legit:

1. Knowing it's a dude in his basement running ONLY this draw is a big part of many folks concerns
2. When the board DOCKED RMEF points for recommending the SAME company they use for our regular draw, it increased my concerns. 


Overall I know regular joes draw it. Maybe all the weird things are just dumb luck... but the reasons people question the validity shouldn't exist. When half the board is excused for the awarding vote, when the org that wants to use the same draw system and give 100% of the money to the state doesn't stand a chance and the one who does the least wins, when the rfp is changed AFTER RMEF proposal is in(and then includes language like demonstrated they can "run a UTAH" expo), when the board members of the governing body can even apply... Those are all things that raise questions. 

Many concerns could be put at ease with a few small tweaks. The unwillingness to make those is why I will never feel as confident as I could and should.


EDIT: I am also FAR MORE concerned with what the millions are spent on then I am with the seemingly shady draw.


----------



## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

If there IS a non legit draw algorithm being used and "tweaks" imbedded within it to assure a particular individual/individuals are successful, and it were "leaked" someway….Could you imagine the class action suit and money that would be paid out? Not to mention the prison terms for fraud.


----------



## cdbright (Aug 24, 2016)

Does anybody know what time the draw will be available to see online? If this was already covered, i apologize, and i should just learn to read MORE !!!!!!!! 

Hell - just lie to me :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen:


----------



## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

taxidermist said:


> If there IS a non legit draw algorithm being used and "tweaks" imbedded within it to assure a particular individual/individuals are successful, and it were "leaked" someway&#8230;.Could you imagine the class action suit and money that would be paid out? Not to mention the prison terms for fraud.


Probably not much on either account, if I'm being honest.


----------



## Ray (May 10, 2018)

Results are up and I didn’t draw, of course


----------



## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

Did a quick glance and didn’t recognize any expo celebrities names selected this year


----------



## Elk_41 (Feb 12, 2021)

Kristy Titus, Cody Carr and a few others. Over 1/3 went to NR.


----------



## 4x4 Bronco (Sep 7, 2007)

MooseMeat said:


> Did a quick glance and didn't recognize any expo celebrities names selected this year


What about the book cliffs south any weapon deer permits? I think believe there is a hunting celebrity there. Could be mistaken though.


----------



## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

MooseMeat said:


> Did a quick glance and didn't recognize any expo celebrities names selected this year


 I noticed Kristy Tutus right off the bat. God bless her!


----------



## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

4x4 Bronco said:


> What about the book cliffs south any weapon deer permits? I think believe there is a hunting celebrity there. Could be mistaken though.


You're correct. But that's why I said "quick glance". I scrolled through the list in less than a minute.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded (Aug 25, 2015)

It would be more believable if she would of drawn say a turkey tag


----------



## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

Well now we can see why they require validation. Crazy how many permits went to nonresidents. (Outside of less desirable permits) 

..


----------



## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Elk_41 said:


> Kristy Titus, Cody Carr and a few others. Over 1/3 went to NR.


I feel like I called this happenening.

Just insane. Glad to see our resources providing for other states.


----------



## Kwalk3 (Jun 21, 2012)

If I wasn't completely lazy Im sure I could figure it out myself, but does anyone know how many NR permits are given through the expo draw in a regular year vs this year?


----------



## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

If my math is correct Utah residents drew 59% of the tags with non residents drawing 41%.

198 tags available with 118 going to residents.

I tried to find the draw results for 2020 but they are long gone. Someone needs to save the results page and then compare it next year.


----------



## Ray (May 10, 2018)

What’s the validation portion? I applied for a couple and didn’t see anything about validating


----------



## Ray (May 10, 2018)

****, not one UT resident on this one


----------



## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

I actually think that more non residents know about hunting on the South Book Cliffs with the residents putting in for the North. 

Both can be great hunting if you know the areas to hunt.


----------



## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Well, another swing and a miss for me too. Now I can settle down and plan how I'll bitch and complain about the EXPO next year.


----------



## Ray (May 10, 2018)

Hopefully this isn’t a sign of things to come for me this with the other draws. 🤔


----------



## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

Ray said:


> Hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come for me this with the other draws. &#129300;


I am hoping for the same thing! I figured I was set on my general season deer with 3 preference points... But I noticed last year that on the unit I applied, 107 applied with 3, and 104 drew... My luck would have me as one of the 3...


----------



## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Is Kristy Titus the lady that says at the begining of her show that she's a strugling single mom or sothing like that? You know like all struggling single parents that trek the world hunting with expensive guides and guns and stuff.


----------



## muddydogs (Oct 7, 2007)

Ray said:


> What's the validation portion? I applied for a couple and didn't see anything about validating


In past years you had to go to the Expo to validate your application, this year the validation was suspended due to covid. Were supposed to go back to in person validation next year.


----------



## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

Kwalk3 said:


> If I wasn't completely lazy Im sure I could figure it out myself, but does anyone know how many NR permits are given through the expo draw in a regular year vs this year?


2017-172 Res---28 Nonres
2018-160 Res---40 Nonres
2019-144 Res---50 Nonres
2020-156 Res---44 Nonres
2021-121 Res---79 Nonres

I've got all the others too, but this should suffice. Big jump!


----------



## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

elkfromabove said:


> Since 2007 when the draw started, there have been 240 repeat winners, but some of those drew more than one per year. However, a few years ago, the DWR eliminated the more than one per year rule, and now we only get about 5 or 6 repeaters because if they draw more than one, they have to choose which one they want and the other one is given to the second person in line. Last year (2020) there were 6 repeaters!
> 
> If things go as they have in the past, the draw should take place tomorrow at 9:00 am at the DWR State Office on the corner of Redwood Rd and North Temple in Salt Lake City, and the public is invited. However, the Covid issue may make it otherwise. In any case, we should have the results by Wed. and I'll update my list by Fri. or Sat. Stay tuned!


This year's online Expo tag no-need-to-show-up-to-validate-scheme really blew things out of the water! We had at least 25 tag winners who are repeaters! I don't know how many people applied but it must have been many more than any other Expo. Or it inspired many past winners to try again. Here are the names:

Chaz Rowser - Morgan UT - 2 tags
William Sims - Evanston WY - 3 tags
Tracy Tolbert - Heber City UT - 2 tags
Tyler Parrish - Pleasant Grove UT - 2 tags
William Ellis - Magna UT - 2 tags
Scott Davis - Ogden UT - 2 or 3 tags (2 close cities listed)
Leonard Fitzgerald - Richfield UT - 2 tags
Dyrk Eddie - Kalispell MT - 2 tags
Stanford Jones - Alpine UT - 3 tags
Corey Eldredge - Vernal UT - 3 tags
Nathan Benner - Ione CA - 2 tags
Edward Green - Layton UT - 2 tags
Timothy Pease - Taylorsville UT - 2 tags
John Minaudo - Oakdale CA - 3 tags
Sam Garroutte - Watsonville CA -2 tags
Rick Strain - Yorbo Linda CA - 2 tags
Shane Clegg - Heber City UT - 2 tags
Rodney Lewis - Herriman UT - 2 tags
Cody Carr - Plains MT - 3 tags
Scott Allan - Twin Falls ID - 3 tags
Joseph Allred - Vernal UT - 2 tags
Wayne Shelton - Spanish Fork UT - 2 tags
James Sorensen - Park City UT - 2 tags
Nancy Dezell - Hamilton MT - 2 tags
Brian Murray - Lapoint UT - 2 tags

There may be others who have moved, married, divorced, listed their names differently on the applications, or were Jr., etc., but we have no way of knowing. In any case, there certainly was a big increase.


----------



## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

Interesting in any random draw like lotteries, Etc. when there are many repeat winners it is always found out that the systems was rigged or was truly not set up as random with the logarithmic scale.


----------



## justismi28 (Aug 19, 2014)

To add fuel to the conspiracy. Of the names I see above with repeat winners they include a relatively well known outfitter in Montana and a CEO who has articles published of his adventure hunting polar bear with his PSE. And that was just a spot check googling of names in the list. I searched 4 names, the two mentioned before, one I couldn't find, the other seems to own a successful physical therapy business. 

I'm not saying it's rigged, but statistically speaking the possibility of a repeat would be considered an anomaly as the chances of it happening are so slim. This many "anomalies" should normally trigger an audit of the viability of the application. I doubt the DWR has completed hired a third party to confirm the validity of the system that enters applicants or the one that draws them.

Today, I choose to believe that there isn't anything nefarious, but it's getting harder every year to believe that when you see information like this. Given this is a public resource, managed by representatives of the people, they should open source the code used in this draw and what Fallon uses. I'd love to clone the repo, spoof a data source with 50,000 records and see how many repeats I get when running the application numerous times in a row.


----------

