# College Football Play-off predictions



## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Well, about half way through. My prediction for the 4 teams in the play-off, as of October 23:
LSU
Michigan State
Utah
TCU

ACC gets left out even though Florida State will probably be undefeated. 
I think Michigan State will beat Ohio State, and then Iowa in the Big10 title game.

Utah might be the only 1-loss team in the play-off, with the only possible loss to Arizona next month. But after beating Standford in the title game, they'll get a spot in the play-off. Which will be the biggest stab of controversy when they are selected over an undefeated Florida State Team.

LSU will roll through the SEC West, but still have tough games with Bama and A&M - but will win both. And then beat Florida, again, in the SEC title game.

As for TCU - They won't be tested until the last regular season game against Baylor. Winner of that game will be in the play-off. With a true conference champion this year, the Big12(9) won't be left out again. 

So that is my prediction as of now. Other thoughts?


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## Packfish (Oct 30, 2007)

OSU will be there- probably not MSU


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

OSU
Baylor
Alabama
either ACC champ or Pac12 champ whichever is undefeated.

I know I know...I don't think LSU is going to get past murderers row unscathed. We have Bama, Ole Miss, Ta&m and Arkansas in a 4 week brutal schedule for November. However, if my Tigers get thru that undefeated you just as soon hand them the National Championship trophy after we DESTROY Florida in the SEC championship game.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Bama isn't a top 10 team this year. Neither is Ole Miss, A&M, or Arkansas. LSU will roll through that. They should be favored in every single game they play the rest of the year, until they hit the play-off. I don't have a dog in the SEC fight - just the old eye test tells me that LSU is the only legitimate national contender in that conference this year.

I think the interesting thing is that I can seriously see 1 undefeated conference champion getting left out of the play-off this year - probably Florida State. And I can see that happening with a 1-loss Pac 12, SEC, or Big 10 team getting in ahead of them. And WHEN that happens, let the controversy fire burn.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Well, utes lose.
Florida State looses.

So the season rolls. What about Clemson? Quite the beat down on Miami.


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

GaryFish said:


> Well, utes lose.
> Florida State looses.
> 
> So the season rolls. What about Clemson? Quite the beat down on Miami.


I seem to remember someone calling a Ute's loss last week. FSU didn't surprise me either as they have been skating on thin ice like the Utes.

Alabama didn't look impressive in their near loss to TN. While LSU has a daunting schedule left, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas and T a&m, it is winnable but I will really be surprised if they run the table. Ohio State is looking like they are getting their act together and we will have to see what the diagnosis is on the Baylor QB this week. It's starting to look like Ohio State, Clemson, the SEC champ and either the Big 12 or Pac 12 champ. I think we're going to end up with 3 undefeated teams as conference champs and that will be an automatic lock if that happens for those 3 teams. But that's the beauty of college football, on any given weekend someone can be upset by the least likely of foes.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Been getting crap for a couple weeks saying the Utes would lose to AZ st or USC. I said if they win both I will buy in... Glad I didn't buy. I still think they have a tough game against AZ, they seem to struggle in the desert. Maybe UCLA, but at that point they should be a bit revised and playing hard again.


Clemson and LSU finally get their spots they should have had for weeks. My current 4, in order, is:

Ohio 
Clemson
LSU
Baylor (QB situation defaults them to 4)


Some notes about these teams.
Ohio- dynamic offense with many options. Hard to prepare for as a defense. The QB situation isn't as big a deal as some say. The best team in the country, with 2 great QBs. I have a hard time setting my fantasy lineup so I am sure its tough to choose between these two. The team looks like they had a mid season pick me up and are back at it.

Clemson- Strong on both sides of the ball. Each week they look better, like they are just hitting their stride. They appear far from a slump.

Baylor - Looked great even with the backup QB, but will that hold against ranked teams? We saw Ohio do it last year with a 3rd sting, so crazier things have happened right?

LSU- Actually starting to put the ball in the air. If they can keep diversifying their O, they will be a force. They have the best schedule to solidify themselves. A number of ranked and known teams the next few weeks. They win out and they may have a case for the 1 or 2 spot.



Lost, I am not sure a Pac 12 team can move into the top 4 again. Too many teams undefeated above. At this point, the only loss top 10's will sustain would be to ranked teams. All Pac 12 teams have seen a loss. Stanford could win out, and have the Irish as a proving game. Even then, a loss to NW hurts em. I don't think we have a strong enough case this year in the Pac.


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

LostLouisianian said:


> I seem to remember someone calling a Ute's loss last week. FSU didn't surprise me either as they have been skating on thin ice like the Utes.


Yeah, me, ;-) and as a Utefan, it hurt to predict it and unpleasant to watch it happen. Good thing I was fishing during the 2nd quarter.

As for the playoffs, here is how I see it.

1. Big 10, The winner will win out and be unbeaten and get in. The 3 unbeatens are good, and except for Michigan, the rest of the big 10 is cupcake city. Prediction Ohio st. will be the winner and will make the playoff.

2. The SEC championship winner will make the playoff. LSU will lose along the way, but is not necessarily be knocked out of the playoffs with the loss, but I'll go with Alabama.

3. Big 12; Baylor or TCU will run the table and will get in. Prediction, TCU.

4. ACC; If Clemson wins out, they are in too. Florida St. will be tough, but the rest of the ACC is Meh, so I predict they do it. FSU has been living on borrowed time and I don't think they are that good.

5. Pac 12; I predict they get left out at this point. Stanford and the Utes (yes, the Utes) still have a shot, but need to be Florida st. and Oklahoma fans at this point.


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

"I'm picking USC to upset my beloved Utes by 10. We've been skating on thin ice for a while and I believe this weekend the ice breaks.

The Hilltoppers are going to give my Tigers a run for the money in the first half then we should pull away in the 2nd half. LSU will be caught looking ahead to Nick Satan and the laundry detergent boys during the first half then realize they have to win and come out and play LSU ball the 2nd half."

Me too on 10/22 on the other thread...I pretty much nailed both of the games...although I did miss the margin of loss by the Utes by 8


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

Ohio State - They won't slip up

LSU - I think they will run through the rest of the schedule.

Clemson - ACC is easy and they have been impressive so far. 

Stanford - Edging out the big 12.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

OK. Time to revise my prediction.
Ohio State - Beats MSU in the Big 10(14) title game. 
LSU - goes in undefeated riding the best player in college football this year.
Clemson. That beatdown on Miami. Wow. Not that Miami is great, but dang. 
Stanford - will beat Utah in the 12-Pack title game.

Left out - Baylor/TCU. The title game will mean all the difference. Again.


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

GaryFish said:


> OK. Time to revise my prediction.
> Ohio State - Beats MSU in the Big 10(14) title game.
> LSU - goes in undefeated riding the best player in college football this year.
> Clemson. That beatdown on Miami. Wow. Not that Miami is great, but dang.
> ...


I don't think with all the negative backlash of last year that an undefeated Baylor or TCU is left out again. I think the Pac12 or ACC will be left out depending on who ends up undefeated or if they both have one loss champs.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

You could be right LL. 

I think that if a Big 12(9) team gets left out again though, the message would be loud and clear - you need to have a conference title game. Period. And that would be good. But having a 5th conference with a title game muddles things up just as much because there would always be an odd team out. If it goes there, I can see the Big 12(9) breaking up, with as many as 4 teams to the 12Pack, a couple more to the SEC, and a couple to the Big 10(14) so we'd end up with four - 16-Team leagues. And really, to me, that wouldn't be a bad thing. It would function as 8 conferences, with an 8 team play-off system, with the conference champion from each playing in the second round. That would be pretty darn cool.


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

LostLouisianian said:


> I don't think with all the negative backlash of last year that an undefeated Baylor or TCU is left out again. I think the Pac12 or ACC will be left out depending on who ends up undefeated or if they both have one loss champs.


 If TCU or Baylor (or Ok st.) run the table then yes, I definitely agree. However, if each of them lose and the champ is a 1 loss team, then I think a 1 loss Pac-12 team gets in. Same with Clemson. Same really, for the Big -10, but most of the Big-10 is so bad, except for the top 4, that I think the winner will get through undefeated. The PAC -12 champ is in big trouble if there are 3 undefeated champs, plus the SEC, but is in good shape if there are 2 or less.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Catherder said:


> , but most of the ***-** is so bad, except for the top 4,


Seems like this could describe ALL of the Big 5 Conferences.


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

The first rankings are out.

1. Clemson

2. LSU

3. Ohio State

4. Alabama

5. Notre Dame

6. Baylor

7. Michigan State

8. TCU

9. Iowa

10. Florida

11. Stanford

12. Utah

13, Memphis

14. Oklahoma State

15. Oklahoma

The Utes need a lot of luck to get in, because if Bama wins this week. LSU will still be ahead of them.


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

Catherder said:


> If TCU or Baylor (or Ok st.) run the table then yes, I definitely agree. However, if each of them lose and the champ is a 1 loss team, then I think a 1 loss Pac-12 team gets in. Same with Clemson. Same really, for the Big -10, but most of the Big-10 is so bad, except for the top 4, that I think the winner will get through undefeated. The PAC -12 champ is in big trouble if there are 3 undefeated champs, plus the SEC, but is in good shape if there are 2 or less.


I tend to agree. It's very likely the ACC and Big10 will have undefeated champs although I am not 100% confident that Clemson will get by FSU this weekend. I really doubt that the SEC will have an undefeated champ because to do that LSU will have to win 5 in a row and out of those 5, 4 of them are ranked teams...Alabama, Ole Miss, Ta&m and Florida (sec championship game). That is by far the toughest schedule in the country. I can see a one loss team coming out of the PAC 12. As for the Big 12 that's always a toss up. Right now you have 3 undefeated teams and I can easily see one of them being undefeated at season end or seeing all of them with a loss. IF Baylor or TCU or Okie State has a singe loss to one of those other two and IF the loss is in overtime on the road or by a very narrow margin (3 points or less) on the road I can see the possibility of the Big12 getting their champ in IF the ACC and Big 10 champs are undefeated and you have a one loss or no loss SEC champ. That is going to be a big dilemma for the committee. One conference is going to lose out with a one loss champion and the committee will have to figure that one out with whatever convoluted formulation they used to put Alabama as #4. Bama lost to Ole Miss at home...Florida killed Ole Miss and lost to LSU on the road. A strong argument can be made for UF being ranked higher than bama except for the Satan (aka Saban) factor of Nick being a crybaby.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Still lots of football to play. 

One important take away for me right now is that 4 of the 5 big conferences can still have an undefeated champion. The 12Pack is the only conference at this point, that has no undefeated. All the early polls are fine and dandy. But when it comes the second week in December, 4 conference champions will be in the play-off. No one else. The only question is which conference champion gets left out. And the games will play that out.


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## Packfish (Oct 30, 2007)

True but will Henrys be iced over then ?


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Packfish said:


> True but will Henrys be iced over then ?


Lake, or River?


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## Packfish (Oct 30, 2007)

Lake near the river


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

I don't know when the ice comes on Henry's Lake. I'm not much of an ice fisherman, and this is my first full winter in the upper valley, so I'm not sure. I know West got about a foot of snow today, and 6-8 inches in Island Park. Still no snow in Rexburg - just rain and cold wind, but should snow tonight. Targhee announced that they'll open for skiing on November 20, so there is that.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

So one more week of the regular season. How do you guys see things shaking out?

What it's looking like right now - 

Alabama will play Florida in SEC title game - winner is in the play-off (I think AFB wins)
Clemson plays North Carolina in ACC title game - winner is in. (Clemson wins)
Iowa plays Michigan State in Big 14 title game - winner is in. (I hope Iowa wins)

Last spot is the tough one. 
1 loss Oklahoma or Oklahoma State? 
1 loss Notre Dame (if they can win at Stanford)

Will the Big 9 get left out again? Would the committee dare to shun the Irish? I'd rather see OU or OSU in over Notre Dame. But that's just me.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

GaryFish said:


> So one more week of the regular season. How do you guys see things shaking out?
> 
> What it's looking like right now -
> 
> ...


I agree with those. Excited to see Clemson vs NC. Too teams playing with a lot of heart, battling out wins. I hope Iowa wins also.

I have really been routing for both Oklahoma teams to do well. After OSU lost this weekend, I think they are out. Losing at the end of the season hurts since there is no real formula for the playoffs. I would love if Oklahoma got it, but I think if Notre Dame beats Stanford they secure the spot.

Hope Florida plays tough against Bama. I don't care who wins, but I want Bama to earn their spot.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

So if OU beats OSU, OU is in.? 
If OSU beats OU, and Notre Dame beats Stanford, then Notre Dame is in?


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

We are rooting for T a&m to beat LSU and we can finally get rid of Les Miles. LSU might end up going to the Kohler Toilet Bowl if we're lucky. Bring on Jimbo Fisher and a new dawn at LSU after Jan 1.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

And why would Jimbo Fisher leave FSU?


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

Inside word is that he's unhappy with the administration and AD. He had the opportunity today to say he was happy and staying at FSU but wouldn't say it. My source on the search committee says they have a verbal from him otherwise they'd hang onto the mad hatter another year


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

LostLouisianian said:


> We are rooting for T a&m to beat LSU and we can finally get rid of Les Miles.


Be Careful what you wish for, because you might just get it.

Not a lot of big names on the market.

Not a lot of big name people willing to leave their job, for a job with national title expectations (especially if Miles takes the recruits with him).

The point is there is not a coach out there with a better resume than Les Miles that you can replace Les Miles with.

It would be a big roll of the dice to cut ties with Les Miles.


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

MuscleWhitefish said:


> Be Careful what you wish for, because you might just get it.
> 
> Not a lot of big names on the market.
> 
> ...


Les is toxic in the locker room that's why anyone worth their salt leaves LSU as a junior. No one wants to play for Les longer than they have to. I actually heard this from a couple of dad's who's kids played for Les and were starters. Jimbo coached at LSU for 6 years and should have been given the HC job when Saban left. LSU screwed the pooch on that one and now Fisher is going to get a mulligan on it.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

GaryFish said:


> So if OU beats OSU, OU is in.?
> If OSU beats OU, and Notre Dame beats Stanford, then Notre Dame is in?


I would like if this was the case. Lately their is a crush on ND it seems.

If OU and ND win, I think they let ND in. Score could be a factor here. I honestly think OU has a bigger challenge. I think OSU is better than Stanford, they are in state rivals, and OSU should be coming in angry after a loss.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

I think Notre Dame has a pretty good case among the 1-loss teams. Especially since their one loss was on the road, at Clemson. If the Big 9 would become the Big 12, and have a conference championship game, and a true champion, or better stated, the champion would have one more win over a top-10 opponent, then it would certainly help them in making their case. But then again, Notre Dame doesn't have that either. Should be a fun weekend of football though.


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

LostLouisianian said:


> Les is toxic in the locker room that's why anyone worth their salt leaves LSU as a junior. No one wants to play for Les longer than they have to. I actually heard this from a couple of dad's who's kids played for Les and were starters. Jimbo coached at LSU for 6 years and should have been given the HC job when Saban left. LSU screwed the pooch on that one and now Fisher is going to get a mulligan on it.


I think there are very few players around the college football spectrum that will not leave after 3 years if they can.

Jimbo would be foolish to move to LSU. Why anyone would go from a conference division with Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, North Carolina State, Syracuse, and Wake Forest to a Division with Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi, and Mississippi State with the same expectations of a national championship is beyond me.

There is an advantage of Louisiana recruiting, but 3 years without winning a national championship they will be looking for the new guy.

With the SEC West Division as tough as it is and the ACC Atlantic division not being great, it would be tough to move.

Which leaves the question if not Jimbo Fisher, then who?

Chip Kelly, Houston Nutt, Dennis Erickson, Kyle Whittingham, Mack Brown, Lane Kiffin, Mike Gundy, Bob Stoops, Kirby Smart, etc

There are just not the names on the market to replace Les Miles and with 13 schools vying for coaches, I just do not see how raising 15-20 million to replace him is a smart decision.

Also, why don't the boosters give the 15-20 million to the school which almost declared bankruptcy earlier this year?


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

MuscleWhitefish said:


> I think there are very few players around the college football spectrum that will not leave after 3 years if they can.
> 
> Jimbo would be foolish to move to LSU. Why anyone would go from a conference division with Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, North Carolina State, Syracuse, and Wake Forest to a Division with Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi, and Mississippi State with the same expectations of a national championship is beyond me.
> 
> ...


The claim of a national championship every 3 years really is unfounded. Miles record against SEC teams is somewhat lower than his over all winning percentage. There are issues with Miles in the locker room, his keeping certain kids on the team after they should have been let go, etc. I know a couple of dads who's kids played for Miles, it wasn't a pleasant experience and these kids were starters too. My sources tell me that if Jimbo hadn't already agreed to come to LSU behind the scenes that we wouldn't be having this discussion and Miles would still be the coach next year. If LSU doesn't pull the trigger now Jimbo will go somewhere else. As for the boosters giving money to the school, well first off you have to understand that the LSU football program actually makes money. It puts back in over 10M per year above what it costs to run the program so the football program puts over 10M per year back into the school coffers, if that were to drop it could hurt the schools budget. That is significantly more than the boosters buying out Miles on a one time basis and then we really don't know how much these big bucks boosters are also kicking into the schools coffers but I would be willing to bet it is significant. Miles has brought this upon himself with his attitude of arrogance and how he is treating the people that actually are paying his salary. Earlier this year he held a press conference and repeatedly said that any kid that he was trying to recruit and chose to go somewhere other than LSU could and I quote...."go to hell". Every coach has a copy of that clip and I am sure they're using it against LSU. LSU also lost their premiere recruit in a QB from Florida. It came out today that this kid decommitted from LSU over a month ago, long before the bama game and long before any talk of Miles being let go. He was supposed to be the new face of LSU's offense but he realized he would be wasting his passing talents on a run oriented offense that Miles insists on using.

It's a done deal. Miles is gone and most likely after Jan 1 as it will save LSU 2-3M to buy him out then. I believe that Ed Orgeron is also leaving and will be a HC somewhere else. I don't see Fisher really keeping anyone other than Orgeron on Miles staff if Orgeron is still available but I don't see him sticking around unless he is offered the DC position with Fisher, which I think would be a great move.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Interesting. I've known several guys that played for Urban Liar, and without exception, they couldn't stand the guy. He is not a player's coach. His players hate him. But he's also won everywhere he has gone. Speaking generally, and not specifically, I think so many 5 star recruits get to college, having been coddled their entire sports life. They've always been the best guy on the team, and been worshipped. Then then get on a team with 40 other 5 star guys, and all of a sudden they aren't the star anymore. And they get a coach that pushes them really hard for the first time in their life. And then they have a problem with that. Coaches that do that in college are hated by the players, but they win. And they can smile all they want and glad-hand the boosters who keep the wallets open because they can beat their chest about how great the team is. Read into that Urban Liar, Rich Majarus on the basketball side, Caliperi, Miles, heck, Belichek for that matter. And those guys always leave because they wear out their welcome. It's how it works. Very few and far between are college coaches that are more about building young men - Tom Osborne comes to mind. That's why those guys are legendary. 

LSU, and FSU, or Oregon, or Ohio State, or Texas, or- or - or - can get a coach with a different name for the next 3-4 years, and the unrealistic perspective of fans to win repeat national championships will fall short, and the guy will get fired in favor of the flavor of the day.


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