# 2014 draw odds



## 400BULL (Nov 16, 2007)

Does anyone know when Utah's 2014 draw odds will be posted? The files for 2013 were created in July last year. I am not sure when they were actually posted it sure seems like they were posted by now. I was somewhat expecting the odds to have been posted by now. 

400bull


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## JuddCT (Sep 7, 2007)

I heard September some time. This is one of my major gripes about the draw (I also don't like putting in for tags without knowing tag numbers).


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

In the same vein, what does everyone think the draw odds will do on Monroe? Become steeper? Stay the same?


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## Elkaholic2 (Feb 24, 2013)

colorcountrygunner said:


> In the same vein, what does everyone think the draw odds will do on Monroe? Become steeper? Stay the same?


What are the odds on the betting line on that?:grin:


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

The lack of draw odds is a sore spot for me, coupled with the DWR's plan to capture and transplant Mt Goats 2 days before my wifes OIL Mt Goat hunt is to start. They sent a letter offering to let her turn her tag back in but I wasnt willing to do that without seeing the draw odds. I doubt even with her bucket of draw odds she was guaranteed her tag.

Had the results been released and I knew she would be guaranteed next year we would have turned the tag in and done it next year.

DWR really fails us at times.


-DallanC


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## 400BULL (Nov 16, 2007)

So here is what I don't get. If you look at the files from last year they were clearly generated around the 23 of July. If the information has been created in July why does it take so freaken long to get it posted on the web site? 

DC,

I feel your pain. I usually stand behind what the DWR does. Can you imagine what it is like to trying to keep every angler and hunter happy. It just is not going to happen. No matter what the DWR does they are going to piss someone off. Come on, transplanting 2 days before a OIL hunt is schedule to start is just wrong!

400bull


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

I may be wrong, but my hope is they are actually breaking out the general season deer odds to give the true odds. Of course that wouldn't change the OIL/LE result odds tables- except for the mgt PLE deer hunts. Not sure, just a guess.


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## quartz (Dec 16, 2013)

Packout, what do you mean by 'true odds'? Are you talking about separating out youth or do you mean something else?

I was unsuccessful this year in drawing mainly because I didn't understand the odds report. Trying to remedy that!


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

400BULL said:


> So here is what I don't get. If you look at the files from last year they were clearly generated around the 23 of July. If the information has been created in July why does it take so freaken long to get it posted on the web site?
> 
> DC,
> 
> ...


 Per the current DWR contract with the drawing company in Fallon NV, the odds information which they provide was due on or before June 4, so DWR has had it at least since then. I don't have any idea why it takes so long to post it.


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

quartz said:


> Packout, what do you mean by 'true odds'? Are you talking about separating out youth or do you mean something else?
> 
> I was unsuccessful this year in drawing mainly because I didn't understand the odds report. Trying to remedy that!


 The Lifetime License holders, the Dedicated Hunters and the Youth all play into the "true odds", but the biggest flaw is that the LE and OIL odds only show the person to person odds not the true points to points odds. The 50% "reserved" tags that are issued to the top point levels are person to person odds at each of those levels simply because we compete at each level separately and every person has the same number of points, thus they each have the same number of chances to draw the lowest number. But the other 50% non-reserved applicants are competing on a points to points basis and at all levels combined. It's not me against everyone on my level as shown in the odds, it's my 12 chances to draw the lowest number against them AND against your 2 chances to draw the lowest number AND against your brother's 14 chances to draw the lowest number.

For simplicity, let's say there are 10 tags left after the reserved tags are drawn, and let's say there are only 3 point levels left with 10 applicants at each point level. Also, keep in mind that we also get a chance for our current application.
- Remaining top level of 2 bonus points x 10 applicants = 30 chances
- Remaining second level of 1 bonus point x 10 applicants = 20 chances
- Remaining lowest level of 0 bonus points x 10 applicants = 10 chances
- Total chances = 60 chances

- Top level = 3 in 60 or 1 in 20
- Second level = 2 in 60 or 1 in 30
- Lowest level = 1 in 60

Those are your odds regardless of who draws the 10 lowest numbers. In fact, all 10 remaining tags could go to the lowest level, but that's not likely, given the odds. And if that happened, the current system would show a 1 to 1 odds (100%) for the lowest level, which, of course isn't even close.

It's a bit tricky, but the odds currently shown are not the "true odds", so get out the calculator and have at it!!!!


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

I usually aprove of what the DWR does.....\

But, In the case , they have COMPLETLY droped the ball....WTH.....

ABSOLUTLY UNACCECPABLE Utah DWR .......:!::!::!::!:........---Pull ur heads out!!!


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## 400BULL (Nov 16, 2007)

For those that have been waiting, the 2014 DRAW ODDS have been posted.


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

Anyone know why people with preference points would not draw a tag before people without?


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

nocturnalenemy said:


> Anyone know why people with preference points would not draw a tag before people without?


It is just the way that Utah's draw system is set up. I have max points for my LE deer unit. But half of the tags went to the general draw and not to the max point holders. So out of 9 max point holders only 4 drew tags, the rest went to those with less than max points and one tag went to a hunter with 0 points.

You have to love Utah's draw system.


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## Dahlmer (Sep 12, 2007)

nocturnalenemy said:


> Anyone know why people with preference points would not draw a tag before people without?


Probably put in as a group with someone with less than max points which lowered the average enough not to qualify for the bonus pool.


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## Dahlmer (Sep 12, 2007)

For those intersted in looking...

http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting-in...me/1468-big-game-statistics-drawing-odds.html


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## SteepNDeep (Sep 11, 2007)

This may be a stupid question, but why are there folks with 4 or 6 or even more points for general deer? Has it become that difficult? Really?

http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2014/14_drawing_status.pdf


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

SteepNDeep said:


> This may be a stupid question, but why are there folks with 4 or 6 or even more points for general deer? Has it become that difficult? Really?
> 
> http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2014/14_drawing_status.pdf


No, they do it to game the system and GUARANTEE themselves a tag every year in their 2nd choice. People with the most preference pts get a tag no matter what. So they put in for an area with the worst odds, knowing they wont draw... it keeps giving them a pt every year and they are guaranteed their 2nd choice... every single year.

A guy will draw his 5th choice deer tag before another guy draws his first choice pick, if the first guy has more points than the 2nd.

They have to address this, it's ridiculous actually that they haven't done anything so far. The easy change is if you get a general tag of any form, you loose your pts. People who want that hard to draw area can skip putting in for other units.

-DallanC


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

400BULL said:


> Come on, transplanting 2 days before a OIL hunt is schedule to start is just wrong!
> 
> 400bull


Isn't transplanting goats too early in the summer, when it's hot, also wrong? What about placing the pilots lives in danger by waiting until later in the winter to do the transplants?

There has to be a legitimate reason for doing the transplant right before the hunt. Has anyone bothered to ask the question: Why?

I doubt the answer will be: to piss hunters off.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

PBH said:


> I doubt the answer will be: to piss hunters off.


True... but it still sucks. It sucked doubly to find out the transplanted goats are going out of state! They aren't going to build new herds instate which would give additional opportunity down the road. We traded them for some more turkeys and a few more sheep apparently.

Anywho, their capturing ends today, hunt starts in 2 days... I think I'm more excited than my wife, I haven't slept good in weeks fretting over gear, dates, times, field judging, stress of anchoring shots, goats taking 1000ft tumbles etc etc. lol

-DallanC


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## 400BULL (Nov 16, 2007)

PBH,

The fall maybe the best time of the year to do the transplant. The fact of the matter is no matter when the DWR decided to transplant the goats someone is going to be upset about it. But come one 2 feaken days before the hunt. Even you PBH has got to admit that just is not right. Why not transplant the goats 2 weeks after the hunt starts. I am sure that two weeks is not going to make a lick of difference in the goats or the pilot’s safety. By doing that they are allowing the lucky hunters to hunt the animal that they have been scouting all year before the DWR disrupts their patterns. 

400bull


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

The goats are headed to N Dakota according to the biologist for the area.


-DallanC


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

DallanC said:


> I think I'm more excited than my wife, I haven't slept good in weeks fretting over gear, dates, times, field judging, stress of anchoring shots, goats taking 1000ft tumbles etc etc. lol
> 
> -DallanC


Dallan -- I wish your wife good luck on HER hunt. As a husband, I look forward to the day my wife (or children!) get to participate in a hunt like this. My biggest fear is that I screw it up for them. I need to remember that it is _their_ hunt, and not mine. My expectations don't count. Theirs do.


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

400BULL said:


> PBH,
> 
> The fact of the matter is no matter when the DWR decided to transplant the goats someone is going to be upset about it.


Right.



400BULL said:


> But come one 2 feaken days before the hunt. Even you PBH has got to admit that just is not right.


Without asking the question [why], I cannot admit that it isn't _right_. It may be the right time to do it regardless of when the hunt starts, stops, or otherwise.

I'd be curious to know why they decided to do this at this time. Has anyone asked that question yet?


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

The draw odds were more interesting than ever. Lots of fluidity in applications. At some point they need to cap points to allow people to catch-up on long odd permits that take a lifetime or more to draw. 

Many general season point holders are saving up points to share with those who have less. Also there are a handful of units with odds that push the wait to 3+ years between drawing a permit. 

As for the goat transplant-- I agree that transplanting a couple days before the hunt is not the best move for hunters. They can't do it earlier because the kids are too small. They can't do it later because the actual hunt is going on. They can't do it after the hunt because weather is an issue. It seems there should be a window in the hunt structure to handle something like this. Some fore sight last year could have allowed them to push start dates back a week to accommodate the transplant. Of course the archers probably didn't enjoy helicopters pushing the deer around either.....


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

Critter said:


> It is just the way that Utah's draw system is set up. I have max points for my LE deer unit. But half of the tags went to the general draw and not to the max point holders. So out of 9 max point holders only 4 drew tags, the rest went to those with less than max points and one tag went to a hunter with 0 points.
> 
> You have to love Utah's draw system.


I'm referring to the preference points for the general season tags. Doesn't make sense that they wouldn't draw before someone with less points.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

nocturnalenemy said:


> I'm referring to the preference points for the general season tags. Doesn't make sense that they wouldn't draw before someone with less points.


20% of the permits go to kids under 18 years old ...
Many of these kids have zero , or 1 point....
Thats what you are seeing.


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

Packout said:


> Many general season point holders are saving up points to share with those who have less. Also there are a handful of units with odds that push the wait to 3+ years between drawing a permit.


How many of these "point savers" are people that are taking advantage of the preference point "loophole"?


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