# Finally a real winter?



## #1DEER 1-I

Well you guys up north seem to be getting pounded by snow the last few weeks and it looks as though it's gonna continue which is great for water but we shall see for our wildlife depending what happens in the coming months. Is this the year Mother Nature brings us back to reality on our deer herd? I know the closing months of winter are the hardest on our wildlife but we seem to be doing pretty well on moisture over the past couple weeks. Not near as much snow in my neck of the woods as up north but there's another storm tonight and others forecasted. Hopefully temps just don't dip to much and I think we're still looking good.


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## Karl

Here in Salt Lake County we have been getting lots of snow dumped on us lately.

Seems like there have been at least half a dozen pretty good snow storms already.

It's still early in the year however and this needs to keep up for a couple of months in order to fill the aquafers up in the mountains.

Then in the spring there will be a lot of water and a lot of vegetation and a lot of deer.

Same is true of Idaho.


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## PBH

fish like water.

>>O>>O>>O>>O>>O>>O>>O


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## Packout

The higher temps and rain next week could be the real killers. Seems like when that happens in January a cold front will move through and create an ice sheet over everything. I've seen herds of deer walking over 2' of snow with a 4-6" ice layer on top. Last time that happened we lost 50-80% of the herd and even elk were winter killing.......

Deer die in March from conditions Dec-Feb.

..


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## #1DEER 1-I

Packout said:


> The higher temps and rain next week could be the real killers. Seems like when that happens in January a cold front will move through and create an ice sheet over everything. I've seen herds of deer walking over 2' of snow with a 4-6" ice layer on top. Last time that happened we lost 50-80% of the herd and even elk were winter killing.......
> 
> Deer die in March from conditions Dec-Feb.
> 
> ..


Let's hope not. We had rain yesterday down here but we don't have near the depth of snow you do up there, plus our winter range isn't all homes.


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## colorcountrygunner

I think they said that option 2 would winter kill-proof our deer herds, so we should be okay.


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## Critter

#1DEER 1-I said:


> , plus our winter range isn't all homes.


I often wonder when people say something like this. It is my understanding that the deer herds along the Wasatch Front are doing better than the whole rest of the state.

Take a look at the SW Desert, very few homes and lots of winter range. Loa, Bicknell, still very few homes and lots of winter range. Fish Lake, very few homes and lots of winter range. But where are all the deer in these areas? I know that the numbers are up from years ago but there are not nearly as many as there were years ago.


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## DallanC

colorcountrygunner said:


> I think they said that option 2 would winter kill-proof our deer herds, so we should be okay.


And I think they are going to feed them a new deer pellet made from coyotes.

-DallanC


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## Vanilla

There are two factors here in my mind, both have been mentioned. 1- a horrid winter will result in a larger winter kill of animals I like to hunt. 2- fish like water, and another poor winter will harm fish I like to chase. 

Just checked a snow report, here we are in regards to averages in various basins around the state (I do not believe this includes the current storms we are getting): 

Bear River: 157%
Weber/Ogden Rivers: 152% 
Provo/Jordan Rivers: 143% 
Tooele Valley/West Desert: 166%
NE Uintas: 182%
Duchesne River: 213%
Price/San Rafael Rivers: 171%
Dirty Devil: 162%
SE Utah: 155%
Upper Sevier: 148%
San Pitch: 152%
Lower Sevier: 168%
Beaver River: 144%
Escalante: 128%
SW Utah: 187%

It is still very early. Good snow pack in early January does not get us out of the semi-mild/dry cycle we've been in the last few years. But maybe there is hope? How cool would it be to fly into Utah and actually see water in the Great Salt Lake?


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## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> There are two factors here in my mind, both have been mentioned. 1- a horrid winter will result in a larger winter kill of animals I like to hunt. 2- fish like water, and another poor winter will harm fish I like to chase.
> 
> Just checked a snow report, here we are in regards to averages in various basins around the state (I do not believe this includes the current storms we are getting):
> 
> Bear River: 157%
> Weber/Ogden Rivers: 152%
> Provo/Jordan Rivers: 143%
> Tooele Valley/West Desert: 166%
> NE Uintas: 182%
> Duchesne River: 213%
> Price/San Rafael Rivers: 171%
> Dirty Devil: 162%
> SE Utah: 155%
> Upper Sevier: 148%
> San Pitch: 152%
> Lower Sevier: 168%
> Beaver River: 144%
> Escalante: 128%
> SW Utah: 187%
> 
> It is still very early. Good snow pack in early January does not get us out of the semi-mild/dry cycle we've been in the last few years. But maybe there is hope? How cool would it be to fly into Utah and actually see water in the Great Salt Lake?


It'll be interesting to see how the Jan-April precipitation shakes out. The past couple years it seems we have left December with above average snowpack throughout the state--but then it just dries up and we got little/no snow afterwards so we ended winter with at or just below average snowpack. Hopefully a happy medium is struck this year that gives water for the reservoirs but doesn't bury the wildlife.


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## Daisy

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/


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## PBH

Vanilla said:


> T
> Just checked a snow report, here we are in regards to averages in various basins around the state (I do not believe this includes the current storms we are getting):
> 
> Bear River: 157%
> Weber/Ogden Rivers: 152%
> Provo/Jordan Rivers: 143%
> Tooele Valley/West Desert: 166%
> NE Uintas: 182%
> Duchesne River: 213%
> Price/San Rafael Rivers: 171%
> Dirty Devil: 162%
> SE Utah: 155%
> Upper Sevier: 148%
> San Pitch: 152%
> Lower Sevier: 168%
> Beaver River: 144%
> Escalante: 128%
> SW Utah: 187%


One of us (probably me!) is doing something wrong. When i check, this is what i see:

DIRTY DEVIL 
Sunflower Flat: N/A 
Donkey Reservoir: 91 
Lonesome Beaver: N/A 
Black Flat-U.M.: 103 
Dill's Camp: 129 
Fish Lake Utah: N/A
Basin Index (%) 111%

UPPER SEVIER RIVER 
Clayton Springs 70 
Box Creek 66 
Midway Valley 116 
Jones Corral N/A
Farnsworth Lake 99 
Widtsoe #3 78 
Pickle Keg 111 
Castle Valley 111 
Kimberly Mine 92 
Squaw Springs N/A
Agua Canyon 73 
Fish Lake Utah N/A
Pine Creek 124 
Gooseberry RS Up N/A
Gooseberry RS 93 
Harris Flat 103 
Long Valley Jct 102 
Basin Index (%) 96%

ESCALANTE RIVER 
Clayton Springs 70 
Sunflower Flat * 
Donkey Reservoir 91 
Widtsoe #3 78 
Basin Index (%) 78%

So, what am I doing wrong?


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## Fishrmn

PBH said:


> So, what am I doing wrong?


Try this:
https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Utah&format=SNOTEL+Snowpack+Update+Report

⫸<{{{{{⦇°>


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## Vanilla

PBH, I don't know. I blame the Russians! Or President Obama.


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## Idratherbehunting

I thought I read on here previously that the cold was harder on the deer than deep snow. Is that accurate, anyone know?


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## colorcountrygunner

Idratherbehunting said:


> I thought I read on here previously that the cold was harder on the deer than deep snow. Is that accurate, anyone know?


I believe this is true. Very cold temps make for hard, crusty snow that is hard to get through for the animals to forage, plus their bodies use more energy trying to keep warm. Deep snow + cold temps is a double whammy that is reaaaally hard on the wildlife.


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## 3arabians

I'm nervous for the deer.... I was unloading some hay for the steeds in Clinton today and it was 8 degrees at 430 with a good solid 18 inches of snow in my brothers pasture. However, I have spent several weekends recently on a couple WMA'S up north on cow elk hunts and the deer look good right now. These next couple brutal cold days will be rough and then the warm temps with rain is a bad combo as packout mentioned. We will see how they are in a couple weeks. Hopefully they haven't gone downhill


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## Kevin D

Idratherbehunting said:


> I thought I read on here previously that the cold was harder on the deer than deep snow. Is that accurate, anyone know?


One of my long time friends is a DWR biologist. He has told me that deer can handle the deep snow, and that deer can handle the cold temperatures, but it's when they occur simultaneously that you get the massive die offs from winter kill. The perfect storm, so to speak, for a deer population crash would be a summer of drought, followed by a winter with excessive amounts of snow and weeks of extremely cold temperatures.


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## Josh

Hey Goofy, We have been getting pounded with snow over here in Price. The winter range is at least belly deep on the deer, maybe more. How are the wildlife fairing from what your seeing?


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## goofy elk

Some places definitely have more snow than others.

Winter grounds on th West side of the Manti have the
ground covered but the deer I'm seeing look really good.

S Central valleys you can see dirt, but the mountains
have been hit pretty hard the last 2 weeks.

Temps have been relatively mild so far this winter,
the next 6 weeks will be critical for deer.

Snow pack, and water could be monumental this year!


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## Kingfisher

yup, could be a great year. still have 3 accumulation months to go... but, many basins are nearly to the point where if things go exceptionally dry we will still hit close to at minimum an average year. see here for basin probabilities: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ut/snow/products/data/?cid=nrcs141p2_034243

a quick tutorial to my web page: 
here is the link: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/ut/snow/

from here, select the snow survey data button or if you know the site you want, there is a drop down list just below that button.
snow survey data: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ut/snow/products/data/?cid=nrcs141p2_034237

from here you can access any and all data by individual station or by basin/watershed or by map. for example - Utah map of current snowpack: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/gis/images/ut_swepctnormal_update.png

bear river basin percent of average snowpack peak: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/states/ut/PPCharts/Bear%20River.gif
that shows us that we are about halfway to our normal peak snow... pretty good.

there are many graphs, charts, data tables, etc so you can find exactly what the snow is like anywhere.

the update report referenced by pbh and others :

https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/report...January&textDay=12&CompYearList=select+a+year

lists station snowpack and precipitation by basin but also sorted by station elevation so its a quick way to see what the high and low areas are doing.

I am biased, but I do think its a great resource with lots of information.


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## Vanilla

Nobody needs to worry about the deer. Option 2 will protect them.


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## PBH

Thanks for the post Kingfisher.

Another one I look at frequently is the 7-day snow depth report.



I know it isn't exactly water related, but another tool I use all the time is the Utah Commuter Link map with cameras. I love looking at the live cameras on the mountains to see what is happening with the snow. But it's also a great tool for travel so that you know what you're getting into on the roads. I have the mobile app on my phone too.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Deer feeding has begun for the first time since 2008, and 08 was a pretty bad year. Hopefully our wildlife can weather this winter. Upland populations including turkeys seem to take pretty good hits during years like this. Hoping for the best. Good water year, so far can't complain about that, but can't we have our cake and eat it to?

https://wildlife.utah.gov/wildlife-news/1978-emergency-deer-feeding-in-bear-lake-valley.html


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## Vanilla

It's only in one location in the entire state at this point. Not too big of a deal. We need the water. Yes, more deer will die this winter than last if this keeps up. But we'll have more needed water. Plus Option 2---so we're good to go.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Vanilla I get the strange feeling you really like option 2.


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## goofy elk

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Vanilla I get the strange feeling you really like option 2.


He should, because.
It some areas, units, get hit hard by winter kill,
Opt 2 will be a GREAT tool to help it rebound.


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## Vanilla

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Vanilla I get the strange feeling you really like option 2.


How could you not? It unequivocally is responsible for the rebound of Utah's deer herds. Just ask people that support it. They'll tell ya!


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## goofy elk

Vanilla said:


> How could you not? It unequivocally is responsible for the rebound of Utah's* Buck to Doe ratios*. Just ask people that support it. They'll tell ya!


Fixed it for ya TS..


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## goofy elk

I saw more Wasatch elk yesterday, in one day, than I saw all of 2016...!.....
Unfortunately, Farther North than I hunt.

Provo Canyon, South Fork, Sundance Canyon, Around Deer creek, CHUCK full!


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## Vanilla

goofy elk said:


> Provo Canyon, South Fork, Sundance Canyon, Around Deer creek, CHUCK full!


This is essentially where they flew last year for counts that revealed they were still over objective, right?


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## DallanC

goofy elk said:


> I saw more Wasatch elk yesterday, in one day, than I saw all of 2016...!.....
> Unfortunately, Farther North than I hunt.


I've been saying for years there are a sheetload of elk further north. You keep arguing how in trouble the herds are. Sure, some areas dont have alot of elk compared to the past, but you know as well as I do you can only shoot so many herd cows before you alter the behavior of the herd. And there have been alot of cow hunts compared to the past. Alot of elk are spending time in areas where they historically haven't been as common.

BTW: the micron herd is back, alot of good bulls hanging out there as well in the oakbrush right off the highway.

-DallanC


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## goofy elk

Vanilla said:


> This is essentially where they flew last year for counts that revealed they were still over objective, right?


Ya, but now the herd objective has been doubled, 
The Wasatch is now under objective.....:grin:


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## Vanilla

The last few years have revealed to me that although I'm not very good at it, I love hunting elk more than any other hobby/activity. I'm all for increasing objectives. More elk to see and hopefully hunt!


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## 3arabians

Vanilla said:


> The last few years have revealed to me that although I'm not very good at it, I love hunting elk more than any other hobby/activity. I'm all for increasing objectives. More elk to see and hopefully hunt!


I hear ya there Vanilla. The more I elk hunt (and I've been hunting them for awhile) the more I love it as much work as it is.

When I deer hunt I always get excited when I see a deer whether it's a buck or a doe. However, when elk hunting, whenever I see elk- cow or bull it's shock and awe every time.

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## MuscleWhitefish

There is a bunch of snow up Wyoming way too, there are areas in the desert that one could plow the dirt roads with a truck bumper. 

I'm thinking this keeps up the pronghorn and deer tags will have to be reduced. 

Saw more than few sickly pronghorn fawns while I was out and about looking for a cow elk and even though the mule deer fawns looked healthy there is still 2 months of winter


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## 3arabians

I was up on a northern utah WMA again yesterday trying to help my buddy fill his cow elk tag. I'm no biologist but I was very happy with what I saw. Every deer I saw seemed to be in great condition. I think the warm temps last week really helped melt alot of snow on the south facing slopes. More storms later this week though.

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## Kevin D

This is shaping up to be one of the toughest winters for deer and elk herds on the Cache unit in over a decade. It has already been publicized that deer feeding stations are being set up on the Bear Lake side of the unit, but conditions on the Logan side of the range aren't much better. 

The post New Years storms dumped a ton of snow on us, then came the warm and rain that wasn't enough to bare off the hillsides, and now the cold again that has effectively put a hard cap on the existing snow. Predators can effortlessly move on top of the crust right now but the deer and elk can't. In addition, because of the hardened snow, deer and elk have to expend a lot more energy pawing through the crust to get down to any buried forage.

Once the DWR completes their spring deer and elk census on the Cache unit, I think they'll find a substantially heavier than average winter kill.


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## Vanilla

I bet if someone more search savvy than I were to go back the last several years, you'd find a thread similar to this each year where somoeone is worried that a particular storm or stretch of weather was the tipping point for a major winter kill. But we've made it out of the last 5 years or so pretty golden. 

I'm not a biologist. I don't even play one from time to time on the internet. But I'll say these are tough critters. They are built to withstand bad weather. While we all know tons of snow and extreme cold for long periods of time kill deer, but I'm guessing we won't have a huge winter kill this year like some are worried will happen. We might see some increase, but I'm not too worried about the herd overall. We're in good shape. I hope I'm right!


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## Kevin D

Vanilla said:


> I bet if someone more search savvy than I were to go back the last several years, you'd find a thread similar to this each year where somoeone is worried that a particular storm or stretch of weather was the tipping point for a major winter kill. But we've made it out of the last 5 years or so pretty golden.


While you are correct in that every year someone raises alarm on the state of the game herds, the same savvy search person you refer to would discover it hasn't been me. In fact, quite the opposite in recent years.

I don't know if your post was intended to be a dig at me, but I have had the benefit of having spent pretty much every spare day off for the past 40 plus years on the winter range on the Cache as either a trapper or a houndsman. It's been my passion, it's what I do. During that time I've witnessed the good, the bad, and the ugly. Is it the worst winter conditions I've seen? No, but it is shaping up to a tougher than average. I was merely reporting what I have observed.


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## clean pass through

Kevin D is right.

In Hyrum there was 30"on the ground from previous storms and then the rain hit. It melted (condensed) the snow to about 8" and then it got cold again. Now that snow is like low grade concrete. The only saving grace at this point is the deer went into the winter in good condition. However that is beginning to change. Some of the fawns are not looking good as of yesterday. I am worried for the deer this year. 

I'm not a biologist but I would consider feeding so the deer can develop the proper enzymes to digest the supplemental food given before it is too late. I have a bunch of scouts and a son that would love to help. :-?


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## Vanilla

Kevin D said:


> I don't know if your post was intended to be a dig at me...


It actually wasn't intended as a dig at anyone at all. The only intent was to acknowledge that while we are seeing more snow this year (so far), I still think overall we will be okay.

Additionally, another point I'll make is that even if our winter kill is higher than it has been the last several fairly mild winters, that's okay, because we truly need the water. It is a trade off where numerous mild winters in a row have put us in a bad spot with water, but a good spot with the deer herds around the state. It's time for a water year, in my opinion. The herds will be fine. (again, only in my opinion)


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## goofy elk

Just saw this on KUTV 2 morning news.

SLC winter to date snow is 37", a little above average but NO WERE near record years.
In-fact, not even half! AND, above normal temps.
Most 'record' years have been 80" plus inches of snow to this date. 

I would say way closer to an 'Average', winter for 2017 than anything else.


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## OriginalOscar

goofy elk said:


> Just saw this on KUTV 2 morning news.
> 
> SLC winter to date snow is 37", a little above average but NO WERE near record years.
> In-fact, not even half! AND, above normal temps.
> Most 'record' years have been 80" plus inches of snow to this date.
> 
> I would say way closer to an 'Average', winter for 2017 than anything else.


I also saw that story last night. Unfortunately we've lost a great deal of winter range in Utah. We are gonna lose deer in many areas this year.


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## goofy elk

OriginalOscar said:


> I also saw that story last night. Unfortunately we've lost a great deal of winter range in Utah. We are gonna lose deer in many areas this year.


You guys saying this must mean along the Wasatch front?
In 3 counties?

Because I'm seeing many habitat projects throughout Utah that are MASSIVE!

Start looking here:https://wildlife.utah.gov/restoring-deer-habitat.html

How much habitat-restoration work has Utah completed?
Utah leads the West in habitat restoration. The Watershed Restoration Initiative is a unique partnership among state and federal agencies, private landowners, local industries, conservation groups and non-profit organizations. Spearheaded by the DWR, the initiative has achieved the following milestones over the past six years:

Treated more than 1.2 million acres of Utah's rangelands
Completed more than 700 projects
Contributed more than $130 million to fund this effort


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## Critter

When people say that we have lost all the winter range for the deer and elk I often wonder about the 90% of the state that still has prime winter range and where the animals are that used to winter on it. 

I can understand along the Wasatch Front from Ogden all the way to south Utah county but what about the rest of the state? You do know that the world does not end once you get past Santaquin in Utah county on I-15.


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## OriginalOscar

Critter said:


> When people say that we have lost all the winter range for the deer and elk I often wonder about the 90% of the state that still has prime winter range and where the animals are that used to winter on it.
> 
> I can understand along the Wasatch Front from Ogden all the way to south Utah county but what about the rest of the state? You do know that the world does not end once you get past Santaquin in Utah county on I-15.


Good point. Add Cache, Summit and Wasatch.

Utah south of Santaquin is known as #1DEER Land; aka future National Monument Land


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## Kingfisher

well, as of this morning nearly every basin in the state (beaver watershed is close but no cigar) has a snowpack equal to or greater than the normal April 1 Peak snowpack. in some cases such as duchesne and virgin, much higher that what we normally on april 1. everything here on out is icing on the cake. or potential for flooding.


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## wyoming2utah

Critter said:


> When people say that we have lost all the winter range for the deer and elk I often wonder about the 90% of the state that still has prime winter range and where the animals are that used to winter on it.
> 
> I can understand along the Wasatch Front from Ogden all the way to south Utah county but what about the rest of the state? You do know that the world does not end once you get past Santaquin in Utah county on I-15.


YES, but I-15 did cut off migration routes for a lot of deer from Santaquin to St. George. Wintering areas for deer along I-15 has certainly been greatly diminished.

I look at the Parowan Front and see the massive numbers of deer that winter there every year and ask myself all the time how better off they would be if they could migrate to the other side of the freeway. Even worse, I see the number of new developments and housing on the east side of the freeway in that area and I can see that deer are losing range.

Also, even in my little town of Monroe, winter range has been flooded with houses and deer are frequently killed along roads in what used to be only farmland. To say that winter ranges have not been affected--even in rural areas--is not true.

What people forget is that deer winter in the same areas virtually every year...even if better areas exist close by. Just a few years ago, the Boulder had a big winter kill for mule deer. Those mule deer on the east side of the mountain stayed in deep snow and died when moving a mile in one direction or the other would have saved them. I see the same thing here around Monroe...we have good winter range above Marysvale, but many more deer winter around Poverty Flats where the range is poor and feed sparse. Why don't they migrate a bit south? I don't know, but they don't.


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## #1DEER 1-I

wyoming2utah said:


> YES, but I-15 did cut off migration routes for a lot of deer from Santaquin to St. George. Wintering areas for deer along I-15 has certainly been greatly diminished.
> 
> I look at the Parowan Front and see the massive numbers of deer that winter there every year and ask myself all the time how better off they would be if they could migrate to the other side of the freeway. Even worse, I see the number of new developments and housing on the east side of the freeway in that area and I can see that deer are losing range.
> 
> Also, even in my little town of Monroe, winter range has been flooded with houses and deer are frequently killed along roads in what used to be only farmland. To say that winter ranges have not been affected--even in rural areas--is not true.
> 
> What people forget is that deer winter in the same areas virtually every year...even if better areas exist close by. Just a few years ago, the Boulder had a big winter kill for mule deer. Those mule deer on the east side of the mountain stayed in deep snow and died when moving a mile in one direction or the other would have saved them. I see the same thing here around Monroe...we have good winter range above Marysvale, but many more deer winter around Poverty Flats where the range is poor and feed sparse. Why don't they migrate a bit south? I don't know, but they don't.


It is amazing how many deer winter in poverty, especially above the dairy where there is little to nothing there for them, and then you have a place like the elbow ranch that has a much larger and better winter range but there's hardly anything there. It would be nice to see a project to improve some areas around poverty, especially above the dairy where the majority of the deer are.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Near record breaking:

https://www.ksl.com/?sid=42978502&n...t-for-reservoirs-but-raises-flooding-concerns

Hopefully the GSL can benefit a lot from this winter. I fear deer herds may not in some areas. Next 10 days are showing dry and warming down here, looks like up north you guys are just gonna keep seeing storms.


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## Clarq

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Near record breaking:
> 
> https://www.ksl.com/?sid=42978502&n...t-for-reservoirs-but-raises-flooding-concerns
> 
> Hopefully the GSL can benefit a lot from this winter. I fear deer herds may not in some areas. Next 10 days are showing dry and warming down here, looks like up north you guys are just gonna keep seeing storms.


The waterfowler in me is giddy, while the big game hunter in me is a bit concerned. And the nerd in me will be watching this very closely as it all plays out.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Clarq said:


> The waterfowler in me is giddy, while the big game hunter in me is a bit concerned. And the nerd in me will be watching this very closely as it all plays out.


I have the same feelings. It will be nice to see some full reservoirs that were all basically empty last fall, and a GSL that actually has some water in it. It could go bust quick too. We will probably see higher winter kill this year, just hope r isn't huge. They haven't started feeding anywhere else yet to my knowledge so things must not be too severe yet.


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## elkfromabove

It's good to see that some of you are finally getting it or, at least, saying something about it. When we were on the Parowan Front range ride in March 2012 with the DWR prior to the transplants, we were told that deer are such creatures of habit that they would walk right through a stable, growing, vibrant sagebrush flat to get to the place they wintered last year (and the year before) even if it was dying from the drought and overaging and overbrowsing and provided very little and/or poor feed. We then were taken to a couple of places where the deer were (about 200-250 head) and, sure enough, the habitat we saw there was sorry. But there was quite a bit of good forage in between, but few deer! We have to stop thinking like rational humans 'cause no one knows why the deer do many of the things they do. THEY ARE DEER and if we intend to manage (or hunt) them, we have to do it on their terms, not ours.

And remember, it isn't just the quantity/acreage of winter range the deer are losing, but the quality as well! Look at the current deer unit management plans and you'll see a lot of work that can and needs to be done just to keep up, let alone get ahead. But even with all of that work, Mother Nature has the ultimate vote and at this point, it's hard to determine what that will be. We may regret not harvesting more does over the last few years on the Parowan Front and elsewhere.


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## #1DEER 1-I

elkfromabove said:


> It's good to see that some of you are finally getting it or, at least, saying something about it. When we were on the Parowan Front range ride in March 2012 with the DWR prior to the transplants, we were told that deer are such creatures of habit that they would walk right through a stable, growing, vibrant sagebrush flat to get to the place they wintered last year (and the year before) even if it was dying from the drought and overaging and overbrowsing and provided very little and/or poor feed. We then were taken to a couple of places where the deer were (about 200-250 head) and, sure enough, the habitat we saw there was sorry. But there was quite a bit of good forage in between, but few deer! We have to stop thinking like rational humans 'cause no one knows why the deer do many of the things they do. THEY ARE DEER and if we intend to manage (or hunt) them, we have to do it on their terms, not ours.
> 
> And remember, it isn't just the quantity/acreage of winter range the deer are losing, but the quality as well! Look at the current deer unit management plans and you'll see a lot of work that can and needs to be done just to keep up, let alone get ahead. But even with all of that work, Mother Nature has the ultimate vote and at this point, it's hard to determine what that will be. We may regret not harvesting more does over the last few years on the Parowan Front and elsewhere.


How much snow is down towards Cedar on the benches?


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## Kevin D

I'm hearing efforts are currently underway to start an emergency deer feeding program up Blacksmith Fork and perhaps other areas along the Logan side of the Cache unit after this latest storm (They are already operating emergency deer feeding stations on the eastern part of the unit in the Bear Lake Valley). Unlike other areas along the Wasatch, we haven't had any melting between storms so our snow has been piling up. There hasn't been an official announcement yet, but if what I'm hearing is true, it's in the works.


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## Vanilla

I would be surprised if it raised the GSL level much. But it might prevent it from falling further, which is certainly a benefit! Of course, I won't be upset if I'm way off on that. It would be cool to fly into SLC International and actually see water out there where there is supposed to be a lake. Bring on the snow! 

For those worried about severe winter kill, how about this for a silver lining? It could be worse, you could hunt the Sierras. You see the constant pounding they are getting? The ski resorts around Tahoe have received over 23 feet of snow in the month of January. Pyramid Lake, here I come!


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## Critter

I'm going to be a little bit facetious here but how many deer and elk actually winter at a ski resort? I have seen elk on the high wind blown ridges or the sunny side hills where the snow is melted but these places are also usually below the ski resorts. 

I know that a lot of cougars do but not many deer or elk.


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## Daisy

The winter of 2010-11 had the GSL basin watersheds at approx 150% of normal, and GSL rose almost 4 ft that year. Reservoirs on the Bear drainage are near 40% of capacity, Weber 56%, and Provo 58%, so a decent bit of the water will end up in the reservoirs and groundwater. 

Currently, the GSL basin is approx 175% of normal right now, our snowiest months are still ahead of us, so hopefully the lake gains a similar 4 or maybe 5-6 ft once runoff ends. Summer evaporation usually takes another 2 ft, plus we have the new North Arm breach that will take another 1-2 ft north. So if we are lucky we may see a net of 1-3 ft elevation gain compared to this years historic low.


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## Vanilla

Critter said:


> I'm going to be a little bit facetious here but how many deer and elk actually winter at a ski resort? I have seen elk on the high wind blown ridges or the sunny side hills where the snow is melted but these places are also usually below the ski resorts.
> 
> I know that a lot of cougars do but not many deer or elk.


In the spirit of facetiousness...I wasn't aware that the snow was only falling in that region at the ski resorts! 

Of course the deer and elk aren't sipping hot cocoa sporting Rossignol gear at the summit of Boreal Mountain Resort. But there is still 20+ feet of snow currently there at the summit! That's a lot. Which was the point.


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## DallanC

When the snow gets deep at the resorts, the elk just hang out in the gift shops

http://www.ksl.com/?sid=42973960&nid=1288

-DallanC


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## Vanilla

That is crazy! I had seen the video of the elk going in, and coming out. I had not seen the inside the store view though. 

I get that those Estes elk are used to people. But this is still just absolutely amazing to me.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Well winter feeding is really picking up, shouldn't have spoke so soon:

https://wildlife.utah.gov/wildlife-news/1982-dwr-biologists-feed-deer-in-new-areas.html


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## elkfromabove

#1DEER 1-I said:


> How much snow is down towards Cedar on the benches?


We don't actually have identifiable "benches", as you do up north, but the levels where the benches would be has anywhere from 3" to 24" inches with a few bare hillsides depending on the drifts and access to sunlight.


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## goofy elk

The 40 degree temps are AWESOME!

South slopes are burning off, snow settling rapidly south of the inverted valleys.


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## goofy elk

Here's what the fawns look like on the central mountains.
It was 46 degrees today when I took this pic ,( 2-1-17 )
6,500 foot elevation. South slopes on winter range's burning off!


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## Lonetree

This morning at 7000 feet, SW exposure. It is not coming off up North quick at all.










There is a dead one in a bed 100 feet form here. If it all looks good tonight I will hike into it.


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## #1DEER 1-I

We're looking at rain in the next week and temps in the 40s and approaching 50's down here. Looks like up north your looking at rainstorms over the next couple weeks and upper 30s and low 40s. The snows gonna melt, but I don't know for the better. Early February is looking like the transition from winter to spring right now.


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## Lonetree

The rain is bad news, snow melt off or not.

These are some of the best looking deer, condition wise I have seen, and on good South faces they are in it up to their bellies still. 









The "dead" deer I was going to hike into is still alive. That deer has not left that bed for 3 days, and had magpies picking at it this morning. I'll get back in, in the next few days. I was up to my armpits in some places.

On the way in I found another one too far to hike into, and my first cat kill for this winter.

What is left after eagles and magpies.









Had a full belly.









Where he bled out.









With the glasses it was clear it was a cat, but I could not find a track when I got on it. Took some searching, but when I found them I was surprised, it was a bobcat.


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## Catherder

#1DEER 1-I said:


> We're looking at rain in the next week and temps in the 40s and approaching 50's down here. Looks like up north your looking at rainstorms over the next couple weeks and upper 30s and low 40s. The snows gonna melt, but I don't know for the better. Early February is looking like the transition from winter to spring right now.


So 1-eye, how do things look in your neck of the woods? (considering that we will be applying down there for deer) When I was there a month ago, things seemed pretty good so far.

I'll second what Goofy has been saying and comment how pleased I've been that the South and West facing slopes above town have been quickly melting off. On a Sunday morning drive up Hobble Creek, both the deer and elk were doing well. Saw one real nice bull elk too near a bunch of cows. It has gotten progressively better through the week too as I drive past the foothills on the way to work, with totally bare slope areas now.

It varies a lot though. When I was fishing at Jordanelle Saturday morning, the deer were really struggling with the snow depths. Their body condition was still OK, but you could clearly see that these deer were having a harder time and exerting themselves more than the deer and elk on the Southern Wasatch.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Catherder said:


> So 1-eye, how do things look in your neck of the woods? (considering that we will be applying down there for deer) When I was there a month ago, things seemed pretty good so far.
> 
> I'll second what Goofy has been saying and comment how pleased I've been that the South and West facing slopes above town have been quickly melting off. On a Sunday morning drive up Hobble Creek, both the deer and elk were doing well. Saw one real nice bull elk too near a bunch of cows. It has gotten progressively better through the week too as I drive past the foothills on the way to work, with totally bare slope areas now.
> 
> It varies a lot though. When I was fishing at Jordanelle Saturday morning, the deer were really struggling with the snow depths. Their body condition was still OK, but you could clearly see that these deer were having a harder time and exerting themselves more than the deer and elk on the Southern Wasatch.


Things haven't been near as bad here, other than rain. We haven't had a lot of snow stack up. We've only had a few inches at the most stacked up for a long period of time. Temps were way up today, and with the forecast approaching 60 it's gonna keep melting. Deer seem to be okay, I haven't seen anything too bad yet.


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## Lonetree

Rain in winter is bad for big game, I'll leave it at that.

Some context on those areas up North that have been hammered. I just got off the phone with someone out of Cache valley, that jumps back and forth between Central ID, and UT weekly. They mentioned something to me, that I should add to all of this here. The animals are basically trapped. It started to rain and snow, and then it just kept piling up. They hunkered down for the storms, and by the time it let up, they could not go anywhere. They can not travel any serious distance in many places. Normally there are a few storms that move them over time, this just all happened in a much quicker time frame than normal, with quite a bit more snow than normal. It sounds like parts of Southern and Central ID, are the same way, very area dependent, with the bad places being really bad.

We are at ~200% snow pack up here in Weber county.


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## Lonetree

The storm this morning finally finished this one off, after laying there for three days. I put a trail camera on him, we'll see what shows up. 









Will be slim pickings for what ever shows up.









This one is still alive..............









I should have had a second trail camera to see how this one plays out.


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## goofy elk

Lt,
There is NO question, there is a dire (no pun intended ) situation for wildlife up North.
This bad winter situation is also affecting Wyoming.
I spoke with a WY biologist yesterday.
Region G and 102 deer,
Antelope units 89 thru 100, NOT looking good. 
It may very well affect how we apply for Wyoming this year.
It might meen buying points only in WY this year.


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## Lonetree

GE, Yeah, WY and CO were givens, but we can add CA, ID, OR, and WA for now as well. In CA they are talking about taking emergency actions, and the term "'95 like winter" is getting used allot. Family and friends in OR are telling me that places that typically only get a trace, are holding 2 feet of snow. The deer and elk are showing up in places they have never been seen before.

Region G: Here is the WY winter kill map for 2011. That was just an above average winter. Right now parts of units 28 and 30 are at ~190% snow pack with things looking about like what I have been posting for Weber county. I had a friend say things are pretty bleak over int he Bighorn Basin as well.


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## Lonetree

And I should reiterate. None of this is "winter kill", we are seeing "summer/fall kill" right now. The "winter kill" will be worse. "The deer went into this winter in good shape", is the kind of statement you put out when you are managing by lies, deception, and a lack of scientific foundation, coupled with a gamble that we won't see a severe winter. 

I have been documenting the fact that huge portions of the deer in Northern Utah are in poor health now for several years. Press releases won't change that on the ground reality. We are now going to reap disproportionately large losses because these deer were/are not in good condition, and we now have a multi-season die off because of this fact. The winter kill alone will be bad, but the gross losses of that, coupled with the summer and fall moralities we are seeing now, will leave us with a suppression effect that will be felt for many years. And the current management policy of managing by buck to doe ratios, will only suppress any recovery further. 

I have been saying this for quite some time, this is just the more painful part of it all.


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## johnnycake

Thank goodness we have vigilante pseudobiologists willing to hike right into the struggling deer herds to do....stuff. :roll:


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## MuscleWhitefish

Lonetree said:


> GE, Yeah, WY and CO were givens, but we can add CA, ID, OR, and WA for now as well. In CA they are talking about taking emergency actions, and the term "'95 like winter" is getting used allot. Family and friends in OR are telling me that places that typically only get a trace, are holding 2 feet of snow. The deer and elk are showing up in places they have never been seen before.
> 
> Region G: Here is the WY winter kill map for 2011. That was just an above average winter. Right now parts of units 28 and 30 are at ~190% snow pack with things looking about like what I have been posting for Weber county. I had a friend say things are pretty bleak over int he Bighorn Basin as well.


A lot of deer from Region G & H winter else where that the hunting areas.

A big Mule Deer Migration ends in unit 131 and this year there is a bunch of snow in Unit 131. This week some snow melted in the unit, so things are looking better.

The deer local and migrated in the fontenelle area look pretty good.

The antelope look throughout the whole area especially the fawns. I would expect a reduction in the type 6 or 7 tags.


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## Lonetree

johnnycake said:


> Thank goodness we have vigilante pseudobiologists willing to hike right into the struggling deer herds to do....stuff. :roll:


I did not hike into a "struggling deer herd". I wait until the area clears out, which is what happens when they start dying. That last deer was alone, in an area that had held about 20 deer. By all appearances she was already dead. She did not attempt to rise until I was within 4 feet of her. That deer is dead whether I approached it or not. **** me for really disliking tag cuts......

Do you have evidence to refute what I have been saying for years, based on real field work? Or are you just going to keep pounding your keyboard?

Gotta love internet warriors, calling people internet warriors......


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## Lonetree

Speaking of action verses inaction, anyone that is concerned about what I am doing, should probably report me to the authorities? Instead of just complaining about it online, right?


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## johnnycake

Keep putting words in my mouth LT, whatever floats your boat. I do admire your passion, but I think you oversell your understanding and have bought into your own product. I just think it is a hilarious hypocrisy to see your posts decrying the state of the herds and that people are doing too little too late to help the areas that are struggling--and then to see you post a photo of a deer on the brink that you took from feet away after scaring it out of its bed. Whether or not it was already as good as dead is irrelevant--that stress certainly did nothing to help that particular doe. And even if you have the best spotting skills in the world, no chance I buy that you verify with 100% accuracy that there were no other deer in the area still alive that you pushed (clearly, we know of 1 that you missed noting it was alive). Are the deer in those areas struggling? of course. Do you have all the answers? I doubt it. Do I? nope, nor do I assert that I do. All I do is look at information and see where/if it is being misconstrued or misunderstood by you and present the info as it reads here to counter your silver bullet claims. Do I think the DWR biologists have a better understanding of the situation than you or I? Absolutely, no question. So, when you go on your triannual rampages railing against the "blind/ignorant/whatever" DWR bios who I know work hard, are smart, informed individuals that produce quality work it gets my hackles up. Now, when the government organization tasked with managing wildlife in the state starts placing legal restrictions on wildlife activities that produce additional stress on struggling herds during the winter, someone who claims to know so much more about how to help should probably stick to observations from afar without an actual mandate as to why your going and inspecting up close and personal. (shed hunting is simply easier to prove a violation of than a hiker/snowmobiler/vigilante pseudobio checking on deer nuts/granola cruncher feeding fawns/etc., but I bet the DWR would love a full closure if they could swing it).

Now if you are/were working on a govt funded or university backed research project that requires this type of data collection, then by all means I would be happy to sing a different tune. But your vague hints and assertions to working with <insert name here> and that you are well known and respected in those lofty circles don't do much to legitimize your vigilantism. What is the name of the project, what is the hypothesis, where's the funding from and what is the purpose of the research? are you a volunteer collaborator or paid researcher? Answers along those lines would make a difference I think, but until then the picture remains of an adult man tying on a bath towel cape and putting a pair of tighty whites over his head and proclaiming he's out to save Gotham.


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## Lonetree

I spotted that specific deer from a distance, and then moved in after verifying there were no other deer in the area. She never "left" her bed, she never will.

If you are that concerned, pick up the phone and do something about your concerns for my interactions with wildlife. "Do it", don't complain about it on the internet, that is what I heard for years.

Also if you admire my passion so much, try looking at the work I present, in it's entirety, the big picture, not just one or two sentences. That work is not mine, it is a collection of 20 years of other peoples work, government funded, SFW funded, privately funded. Much of it is still being conducted today. This is not me, I am just the messenger, whether you like the message or messenger or not, is completely irrelevant to the reality at hand. 

That message has been consistent over the years, and this winter is going to be the unfortunate culmination of much of that. Me in the mix or not.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Lots of melting down here lately. Looks like rains been pounding up north, how are the deer and other wildlife looking now?


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## middlefork

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Lots of melting down here lately. Looks like rains been pounding up north, how are the deer and other wildlife looking now?


Really wet!


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## Lonetree

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Lots of melting down here lately. Looks like rains been pounding up north, how are the deer and other wildlife looking now?


Big melt offs, with an amazing amount of movement of animals that can still do it, which should be good for those that can. Unfortunately I am still seeing deer and moose tip over daily.

If the weather plays along I will cover some mileage Sunday/Monday, and check out a couple of keystone situations for a better idea of the overall situation. But currently it does not look good. When it comes to weather and wildlife declines there was a discussion for a few years, about how El Nino and La Nina played into declines. The jury is pretty much in, it's neither, it's La Nada: http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/02/09/la-nina-la-nada-enso-neutral-climate/97692596/

If you chart declines to ENSO, it does not look like there is a correlation, but if you dig a little deeper, it is pretty clear. We see declines at the neutral point where we are entering or leaving El Nino or La Nina cycles. It doesn't matter if it is cycling up or down, what matters is that the cycle is crossing the neutral point between either condition. This time last year when bighorns started to tip over in UT and NV we were leaving a weak El Nino, right now we just hit La Nada again, as we exit a very brief La Nina. This is of course only one of the three legs that supports the conditions for declines, which is part of why we are seeing declines in the areas that have the other corresponding conditions.


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## MuscleWhitefish

Well it snowed a foot today and the worst is yet to come. I would advise a trip to flaming gorge this weekend 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Vanilla

I haven't seen storm totals in the mountains for the last 48 hours yet, but we got hit pretty good here in Utah County. We've had two of the three biggest snow totals in one storm at my house in the 6 days.


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