# 2021 Drawing Odds



## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

I've been thinking of how crazy it was last year when the COVID hit and folks scattering to the woods, purchasing TP, firearms, ammunition and so on. 


I'm thinking this years draw odds will be tougher to predict with the possibility of more folks taking up hunting and wanting to just get away. Its possible there wont be any "leftover tags" this year???????????? I believe this pandemic could have pushed the fast forward button in Utah into the future about 10 years.


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## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

You might have more first time applicants applying in the 0 point pools, but that’ll be it.

2020 flushed a lot of point holders out of the system for many reasons, like Covid and the new points rules going into effect. Both in the B,B & OIL and antlerless draws reflected that. This year I don’t expect that to happen again. But wouldn’t be surprised to see more “first time hunters” apply. But 95% or more of those will get mad when they don’t draw anything and will quit wanting to hunt in the future.


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## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

I think there will certainly be more first time applicants as Moose said. But last year was interesting. Especially with the new rule of surrendering a permit. I wonder how many held onto their tags rather than turning them back in with the pandemic, the new rule, etc. 

I think this year will be interesting for sure. I've got it on good authority that there's going to be more cuts in reference to general season deer hunting permits again this year too. So that could create additional reduced draw odds for general season hunting.


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## jason21 (Sep 18, 2018)

I think its going to hit harder with the General Pool than the LE and OIL pools like moose said. We all know general Elk tags are going to be a S*** show again, that seems to be the new norm, and I don't think we will get away from that in the future.

As far as LE ad OIL hunts, as long as you are a year ahead, your doing better than those behind you, but it does throw a wrench in the pool for the random tags allocated, your odds will go down in that sense. If you recently drew and are at the bottom again, then yes. it will suck, but oppurtunities are abundant if you want them.


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## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

OriginalOscar said:


> So when I keep turning tags back does that affect others draw odds?


In a way, but it will affect you on future draw odds more


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

The Covid situation hit the antlerless draw hard last year. I predict a lot of pool jumping in the LE/OIL/GS draw this year with people that have been waiting on the sidelines jumping in. With uncertainty lingering in the air about what life will be like this summer and fall, I think a lot will cash in points for something to do.


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## Brettski7 (May 11, 2020)

Well there will be one less person to worry about. I’m deploying OPENING WEEKEND of archery which was the only thing was going to be able to hunt this year as originally I was supposed to deploy a month later than I am now. May even miss next year. 


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

Brettski7 said:


> Well there will be one less person to worry about. I'm deploying OPENING WEEKEND of archery which was the only thing was going to be able to hunt this year as originally I was supposed to deploy a month later than I am now. May even miss next year.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Sorry to hear that but thanks for your service.

Are there any honey holes you would like me to keep an eye on for you in your absence? Just askin'

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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

I'm really hoping to draw either a Muzzy Elk Manti or a Manti Cow Elk (4pts.) tag this year. We bought 1/4 of a cow but I haven't had Elk in my freezer since the last cow tag...5 years ago.

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## Brettski7 (May 11, 2020)

KineKilla said:


> Sorry to hear that but thanks for your service.
> 
> Are there any honey holes you would like me to keep an eye on for you in your absence? Just askin'
> 
> Sent from my SM-N976U using Tapatalk


Lol. Nah I have someone on that already.

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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

KineKilla said:


> I'm really hoping to draw ... a Manti Cow Elk (4pts.) tag this year.


How freaking insane is it that you are only "hoping" to be able to draw a public land cow tag on the unit that has the largest elk herd in the state, when you have 4 points?

What a poop show the antlerless system has become. It's pretty sad, actually.


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

I believe I have a brother with 5 pts for that unit.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> How freaking insane is it that you are only "hoping" to be able to draw a public land cow tag on the unit that has the largest elk herd in the state, when you have 4 points?
> 
> What a poop show the antlerless system has become. It's pretty sad, actually.


Not insane. Sad.

You used to be able to draw a cow permit down there every couple years. Then the sheep and cattle herders cried that the animals that belong on the mountain were eating all the food and leaving less for their stock so they cut tags by 90%.

It is not without it's benefits though. I have never seen so many elk on the mountain throughout the year. I do enjoy seeing them even if I cannot hunt them.

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## MWScott72 (May 23, 2011)

One thing for certain now that "the Rona" is here full force (well, that and the **** out of staters moving here in record numbers)...the old adage "fail to plan, plan to fail" was never more applicable. If you don't have plan and work it, you'll be on the sidelines watching in the fall.

10% of the hunters kill 90% of the game? That could apply in the draw getting those tags in the first place.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Your biggest problem is that there are a lot more people that want those cow tags. That along with perhaps the DWR lowering tag numbers which push out the number of points that a person needs to draw those tags. 

I doubt that it has very much to do with the sheep and cattle ranchers running their animals in the hills.

I saw a post a few days ago where the poster said that he seen a lot more hunters out on the bow hunt last year. Now how can that be when the DWR lets out close to the same number of deer/elk archery tags each year? It is just that there are more people wanting to get out of Dodge on the weekends after being cooped up at home all week.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

Critter said:


> Your biggest problem is that there are a lot more people that want those cow tags. That along with perhaps the DWR lowering tag numbers which push out the number of points that a person needs to draw those tags.
> 
> I doubt that it has very much to do with the sheep and cattle ranchers running their animals in the hills.
> 
> *I saw a post a few days ago where the poster said that he seen a lot more hunters out on the bow hunt last year. Now how can that be when the DWR lets out close to the same number of deer/elk archery tags each year?* It is just that there are more people wanting to get out of Dodge on the weekends after being cooped up at home all week.


The increase could only come from the unlimited archery elk tags. Anybody seen any data to support the perceived increase?

Was there more people in the mountains last year? Sure there was but most are just recreating not hunting.


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## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

Critter said:


> I saw a post a few days ago where the poster said that he seen a lot more hunters out on the bow hunt last year. Now how can that be when the DWR lets out close to the same number of deer/elk archery tags each year? It is just that there are more people wanting to get out of Dodge on the weekends after being cooped up at home all week.


Unlimited archery elk OTC tags. That's how there's more bowhunters.

And yes cattle moochers do play a large part in permit numbers. I'd bet this year if things don't improve drastically, you'll have them crying big time for more permit numbers to reduce the competition, for public land resources, against wildlife and their private cattle herd that that graze for **** near free. Can't be having those deer and elk owned by the state and it's citizens, be taking food from their land maggots mouths. Especially those antlerless animals


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

I won't say that there might of been a few more archery elk hunters last year but I doubt that there were very many. The average Joe is not going to go find a bow and head out into the woods looking to arrow a bull or cow elk. Of all the hunters that I know that have pretty much gave up hunting in Utah none of them went bow hunting or even any kind of hunting for that matter. Even the bow hunters that had quit hunting didn't even go out. 

It is also the thing that if you are seeing a lot more people on the road while hunting what are you doing on the road? Sure you might get lucky and arrow something but the odds are against it.

It would be interesting to see if someone knows where to dig out the information on just how many extra elk tags were sold in 2020 over 2019.


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## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

Critter said:


> I won't say that there might of been a few more archery elk hunters last year but I doubt that there were very many. The average Joe is not going to go find a bow and head out into the woods looking to arrow a bull or cow elk. Of all the hunters that I know that have pretty much gave up hunting in Utah none of them went bow hunting or even any kind of hunting for that matter. Even the bow hunters that had quit hunting didn't even go out.
> 
> It is also the thing that if you are seeing a lot more people on the road while hunting what are you doing on the road? Sure you might get lucky and arrow something but the odds are against it.
> 
> It would be interesting to see if someone knows where to dig out the information on just how many extra elk tags were sold in 2020 over 2019.


I can assure you that when it comes to archery elk hunting, I am the furthest from a road hunter as a utard can get. And last fall while hunting with my dad and brother on their archery spike tags, I saw more guys packing bows off the beat path in a particular area than I had EVER seen in that spot the last 10 years combined! If I ever ran into another hunter in this drainage during the hunt, that was a busy day. And I never ran into anyone during the week. I couldn't get away from guys last season, no matter where I went. Guys on horses, foot, bikes... it was unreal. And we are quite a ways from a truck road. I even had a family of 5, and I'm talking kids as young as 3 or 4, and a dog, hiking for fun, come strolling through an area I've got a camera on, in a chithole, very far off any trail or path, through steep deadfall hillsides and brush. In many years of cams on this place, I've never seen another human. Yet there they were, on a Tuesday morning, during the hunt, walking around the mountains.

COVID and the layoffs and furloughs that came with it, brought people out of the woodwork and the only places they really had to go was the mountains. I don't expect that kinda traffic this year or in coming years, but you never know.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

Critter said:


> I won't say that there might of been a few more archery elk hunters last year but I doubt that there were very many.


There were far more archery elk hunters in the field last year, I couldn't get away from them. It was a circus.

I hunted the same drainage on the opener of the rifle hunt and only saw one other hunter. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


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## MWScott72 (May 23, 2011)

The only place where more hunters could be on the mountain can only come from archery elk. Pretty much everything else is alloted via draw. Yes, it's taking longer for cow tags because more people want them, but those tag numbers are set, so barring large increases or decreases by the DWR, they aren't putting more people in the field. Unlimited archery elk on the other hand? Sky's the limit!!


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

I have to agree on the 5 year wait to draw a Cow tag. I have 6 points and couldn't draw last year. I'm sure I could have drawn on a different unit, but I don't want to rely on Mother Nature to bring the herds down. 


Maybe the wildlife board should look into a 2 year waiting period for cow tags? That's the only way to eliminate the amount of people applying each year. And we all know there is more coming to Utah every day.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

I could side with those attributing the lower permit draw success rates to the COVID except that in the case of the unit I hunt these tag cuts took place 5 years ago. Well before the VID moved to town.

It went from alomst 300 permits a year to somewhere in the 30's. Roughly 90% cut. It instantly created a backlog of applicants. Then when they cut them a bit more the following year, point creep was guaranteed.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

taxidermist said:


> Maybe the wildlife board should look into a 2 year waiting period for cow tags? That's the only way to eliminate the amount of people applying each year. And we all know there is more coming to Utah every day.


I'm not sure I understand how this would help. If you have to sit out 2 years and it still takes 2-4 points to draw you are back up to 4-6 years to draw again.


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## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

People do understand that you aren’t required to hunt the cow unit closest to your home right? You can put in for any unit you want. Don’t wanna wait 4 years? Apply for a unit that you can draw with 0-1 points and hunt every year. Many units can be drawn with very few points or none at all.

It’s funny to see what dudes complain about regarding antlerless. One year they issue a pile of tags and everyone is mad that they give too many. The next year they have huge cuts, and they complain it takes 3 points to draw. Utah hunters are worse than women when it comes to making up their mind on what they are mad about and trying to figure out what they want.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

middlefork said:


> I'm not sure I understand how this would help. If you have to sit out 2 years and it still takes 2-4 points to draw you are back up to 4-6 years to draw again.


Why is there a 5 year wait to apply for a LE tag? With that wait, your going to be applying nearly 15 years or longer to draw. (depending on the unit and species)

It moves point holders through the system with the luck of drawing the tag. Imagine what the odds to draw LE Elk permit on the Manti would be if there wasn't a waiting period.

Moose..... I agree with you on the ability to draw a few tags every other year, or every year. There is a reason for that, low animal numbers, private land, or just a pain in the butt to get to.

My idea of a cow elk tag is to get some meat and not bust my hump doing it. If I bust my hump for an Elk, it's going have a set hanging between the legs, which I'm not opposed to doing. Been there, done it many times.

Hunting is changing in Utah from what it used to be 20 years ago. Either we figure out how to play the game, or fold and move away from the table.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

With the way point creep is I'd suggest to going even longer between elk hunts to get people through the system. 

They just changed the deer waiting period from 2 to 5 years so why not move the elk waiting period from 5 up to 7 or 8 years or even 10? 

Most LE elk hunts are once in a lifetime as it is now. 

Perhaps if they changed the point system from having two sets of points for elk, one for cow and one for bull to just one set of points just for elk. Let the applicant decided if they want a cow or bull tag in their future.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

If you want to eliminate point creep why not just make all tags OIL. That should help considerably.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

middlefork said:


> If you want to eliminate point creep why not just make all tags OIL. That should help considerably.


Most of the ones in the draw are already that.

When you need 20+ points to draw a tag for a hunt, isn't it a once in a lifetime?

My first LE tag was drawn with 9 points back in 2001, now that tag takes 25+ for a non resident. My second LE tag was a deer tag in 2015 that took me 15 years to draw, that tag is more than 20 now and I doubt that I'll ever draw it again.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

MooseMeat said:


> It's funny to see what dudes complain about regarding antlerless. One year they issue a pile of tags and everyone is mad that they give too many. The next year they have huge cuts, and they complain it takes 3 points to draw. Utah hunters are worse than women when it comes to making up their mind on what they are mad about and trying to figure out what they want.


Therein lies the problem, doesn't it? Why the year to year swings? If they'd just stick with what they've got we wouldn't have to play a giant guessing game and be subject to wild fluctuations in tags. Yes, that bothers me, and you've given a great example of why! So thank you.

Also, waiting period for antlerless would be terrible. An opportunity meat hunt with a waiting period? And as stated above, is there a difference if you have to have 5 points to draw a tag, or if there is a 2 year waiting period and it still takes 3 points to draw it? Middlefork, you may be right that it is coming, but it would be terrible if we get to that. It seems to me that there has got to be a better way to go about it.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

Last I knew there were no random draws for antlerless tags so the tags are issued for the top points holders first and work down. No chance for low points total to draw a tag unless there are a lot of tags issued.

LE tags are indeed OIL tags for the most part. Why not make it official?

I'm all for letting people hunt as much as possible. Who here thinks people are going to learn how to hunt any species if they never get a chance to hunt?


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

This is my first year to apply for a LE Elk tag after the 5 year waiting period. It was in the back of my mind that the 2015 tag I held would become the ONLY LE Elk tag I'd draw in Utah. I'm not going to apply for another tag in hopes I'll draw before I take a dirt knap and surrender those years and money applying. 


So there will be one less applicant to worry about and make the odds in your favor to draw. I honestly think my odds are better at drawing the Sportsman tag the way things are going. Well, maybe not.


Besides, Ice fishing is going to be slowing down in a few weeks and that slow time will be on us, so ya, what else are we going to bitch about. It happens every year.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

I used my elk points in 2011. I knew when I drew it was my only LE tag at 61.

Since then I put in for LE deer just to irritate a few people. 
if I draw great, if not it won't be the end of the world.

I Don't put in for OIL species. I've never had the desire to hunt those animals. A few friends and relatives do and if one draws a tag great. I'll be the first to help them if I can. We put in for antlerless and can have a tag or two every year so we get a taste of the good stuff.

But so far (knock on wood) we have never not been able to hunt something big game.


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## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

middlefork said:


> Last I knew there were no random draws for antlerless tags so the tags are issued for the top points holders first and work down. No chance for low points total to draw a tag unless there are a lot of tags issued.


Antlerless moose random tags.

And no, don't turn LE species into OIL. At 30, all I'd have left to hunt is LE deer, which I will draw while on my current elk wait period.

We have our OIL species.

It's amazing how often guys are screaming to limit their opportunities even more. Unreal.


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## MWScott72 (May 23, 2011)

Simple fact is that there are not enough animals / tags present to get everyone the tag / animal they would like to get. Supply and demand at its finest!

I agree with Moose in that LE should stay LE and OIL remain OIL. Why on earth do we as hunters want to limit ourselves on the opportunity to hunt? Makes absolutely no sense to me. If you want to wait 25+ years to hunt elk (looking at you Vanilla...in a good way), then more power to you, but that is YOUR CHOICE! Just because you can't draw the tag you want in a lifetime, don't restrict everyone else's chances to draw the tags they are gunning for.

There are plenty of opportunities to hunt a quality unit in less than 10 years. Of course, that requires archery tackle, but you're hunting right? If you want to use a muzzy, tack on a few years and you're there. Rifle...start saving those points boys!! Sure, we'd all love to hunt the top tier units, but they are top tier for a reason - more restrictive tag numbers to grow more and bigger animals. If that's your play, then go for it! Just realize that 400" bulls or 200" deer around every bend in the road are not normal.

In today's age, if you want to hunt upper-middle or top tier units on a somewhat "regular" basis, it's going to take years planning. That planning is going to involve multiple states and lots of money in the points game. Come up with your plan and work it. You'll be hunting some better hunts more frequently. But if you can't or aren't willing to do that, realize that there just aren't enough animals or tags to go around that will make everybody happy. In this respect, I think we as hunters are a little selfish thinking only about what "we" want and not what's best for the hunting community in general.

Hunting opportunities abound out there. If you're not hunting LE or OIL hunts, get out and hunt the general or antlerless hunts. Yes, even that takes some planning these days, but plenty of opportunity is out there if you don't pigeon-hole yourself into one unit all the time. Maybe you only get to hunt deer one year, but bull elk next, and antlerless elk the year after that. On your 4th year you're back to deer...but maybe in between years 1 and 4 you did an out of state deer hunt. Now you've hunted deer 3 out of 4 years. Not bad right?? What it all comes down to is how much you really want it! If it's that important to you, then you'll find a way to get it done, but don't take away opportunity from others to do so. When it comes down to that, IMO, it's just selfishness.


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

We live in the land of opportunity - with a little budgeting and some planning, LOTS of "doors" can be opened. 

It's nice not to have to fully rely on the draw to hunt every year. ;-)


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

Is this where we can interject the idea of Point Caps? Asking for a friend.....

..


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## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

Packout said:


> Is this where we can interject the idea of Point Caps? Asking for a friend.....
> 
> ..


I think we are about to that point in the conversation. Feel free to bring that up now.


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