# Random Draw for Big Game



## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Came across this article from Guy Eastman where he write about the unintended evils of preference points. It's not that long of a read. I thought I'd share it and see what you all think of it. Would it sway any of you that support the preference point system into considering a change to full random here in Utah? Obviously the change would have to come up with a way to flush out the top point holders in a fair manner.

On that note; What would you consider as fair when flushing out the top point holders?

https://blog.eastmans.com/the-myth-of-preference-points/?utm_source=Eastmans.com+Newsletter&utm_campaign=91b46c4ca5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_Vortex_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_aec388f646-91b46c4ca5-9795693


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## sheepassassin (Mar 23, 2018)

They could buy me out of my points at $250 per point, which is more than fair since to the top point holders they are worth much more than that. I’m sitting at max for cow moose and I’m close to drawing a mtn goat. After i draw those 2, I don’t really care what they do for the draws


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

sheepassassin said:


> They could buy me out of my points at $250 per point, which is more than fair since to the top point holders they are worth much more than that. I'm sitting at max for cow moose and I'm close to drawing a mtn goat. After i draw those 2, I don't really care what they do for the draws


I would do that on my bison points then go do a ranch hunt with what they pay me.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

I think before people start proposing major changes to our system, they should at least know the difference between our Preference point system and our Bonus point system. They are entirely separate, different things.

The eastman article is Horse S##t. Especially their claim about hunter recruitment. Anyone with a fraction of a brain could prove that wrong in about 10 seconds on a computer. Here let me save you 5 of those 10 seconds:

https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2018/18_big_game_odds_report.pdf

Look at the first table or two, look at the increase in people for each tier as you scroll down. That is INCREASING RECRUITMENT, not decreasing. Good grief the Eastman's article is sloppy. I guess they just assume people will accept their crap without looking at the facts.

Utahs system is pretty good actually... IMO its the best of the draw types, it has the random portion but it also has that carrot for those that stay in the game longer.

I know people in full open draw states that have never drawn anything... ever, even after decades of waiting. They HATE the fully random draw.

The problem is and always will be, too many hunters, too little game.

-DallanC


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

I get your positions and I am in no way attacking you personally; but this is what I see in those positions/answers and why I think they are wrong from my perspective.

1.- I am almost drawing so I'll get mine and I don't care if you get yours.
Can you say that with a straight face to your kids or grand kids who will never draw an LE or OIL tag

2.- The numbers say otherwise we have more hunters than ever before.
True in numbers but far less as a percentage of population. That makes it an overall decrease.

3.- Random doesn't work because some people never draw
More people never draw the power ball or mega millions and yet they keep buying tickets. The odds are so bad there you are actually guaranteed not to win. Do we really need to entitle people to draw something? Again, the problem is too many players and not enough prizes.

Again.....No attacks on anyone, just a different point of view


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

We have a complete random draw. No points. We (my two girls) were very fortunate this past year with drawing 60ish percent of the hunts they were put in for. This was the first time the youngest of the two drew and it had been 4 years since the older of the two drew.

Of course, some of it is attributed to putting in for more difficult to draw hunts, but when they do they are good hunts. If odds run 30%, that doesn't mean you will draw once every 3 years. It means you have an equal chance of beating out the other two guys as they do you and the other guy. Sure seems though some people have all the luck. 

A friend of mine has been putting in for an OIL oryx hunt on WSMR for 20 years and finally drew this year. I put in for 2 and drew on my third try and went in 2001. So in this instance, it would be like he had 20 bonus points and I had 2. Another guy I know drew on his first time to apply. 

It is getting more difficult to draw each year due to the increased applications each year because there is no point system.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

MadHunter said:


> 1.- I am almost drawing so I'll get mine and I don't care if you get yours.
> Can you say that with a straight face to your kids or grand kids who will never draw an LE or OIL tag


We just created an entirely new type of "mentor" tag to allow kids to use these tags. I was and still am fully against mentor tags. Before they were created, you could count on X number of people leaving the draw due to old age, loss of interest etc etc. Now, you have old Grandpa staying in the draw to give his grandkid the tag. And Grandpa doesnt even have to leave the truck! Whats the rule, he has to be close enough for hand signals? How far away can you see a person wave a hand from a 80mm Swarovski spotter? LOL.

Facts are the mentor tag system increased point creep by keeping anyone with a pulse in the draw, along with all the new "grandmothers" who entered the draw (being paid for by Junior).



> 2.- The numbers say otherwise we have more hunters than ever before.
> True in numbers but far less as a percentage of population. That makes it an overall decrease.


/shrug this is a conversation about a Tag allocation system that takes decades to work through, and we're worried about hunter recruitment? There are plenty of hunters lined up and still adding more every year. 

I do believe however in the not so distant future, as the millennial and subsequent generations become the dominant voter block you will see the 2nd amendment removed, and huge restrictions to the 1st amendment. Polls among millennials are already in the high 80% wanting just that. They are also very anti-hunting and will eagerly vote to get rid of hunting.



> 3.- Random doesn't work because some people never draw
> More people never draw the power ball or mega millions and yet they keep buying tickets. The odds are so bad there you are actually guaranteed not to win. Do we really need to entitle people to draw something? Again, the problem is too many players and not enough prizes.


So look for ways to move people through the system faster. Getting rid of Mentor tags, moving LE hunts out of the rut (good lord, we just added rut deer seasons last year, talk about going the wrong direction with herd management), and get back those stolen +600 Convention tags and put them back in the public draw.



> Again.....No attacks on anyone, just a different point of view


No its a fine, and respectful discussion. What annoys me is we always get these suggestions every few years like its never been considered before. Almost every time suggestions are made and changes implemented, it makes things WORSE. I want to avoid making things WORSE.

-DallanC


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## sheepassassin (Mar 23, 2018)

MadHunter said:


> I get your positions and I am in no way attacking you personally; but this is what I see in those positions/answers and why I think they are wrong from my perspective.
> 
> 1.- I am almost drawing so I'll get mine and I don't care if you get yours.
> Can you say that with a straight face to your kids or grand kids who will never draw an LE or OIL tag


The year they approved the mentor program I started buying points for family members that don't hunt but will still be able to go hunting when my kid will be of hunting age. I wasn't married Or have any kids at the time, but started buying points for everything possible that year. I had been buying points long before that for my own selfish reasons for these family members as well for GS and a few LE species, but no OIL. I changed my approach when the mentor program was created. Call it cheating or wrong or not fair, but if that's what it takes, thats what I'll do. Sure he will never hunt San Juan trophy bulls or Henry's bull bison, but he will kill a decent elk and a cow buffalo before he's 18, as well as a few other cool animals. Even without all that, there's still TONS of hunting opportunities for youth in Utah and other states if you go look for it. So ya, as long as I get my tags, I'm really not too concerned with anyone else, since my tags will be the harder ones to draw than my kids will be


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

sheepassassin said:


> there's still TONS of hunting opportunities for youth in Utah and other states if you go look for it.


That is an understatement. We didnt even go crazy with out of state hunts for my boy (who just turned 18 so his youth opportunities are over). But, at last count he's killed:

6 buck mule deer.
5 Cow elk
1 Buck pronghorn
2 doe Pronghorn.

That's more than I ever killed by age 30. Youth have so much opportunity right now its crazy. My brother's beat that by a mile with his two sons hunting in lots of states.

-DallanC


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

He makes some valid points. But then so does everyone else on this thread.

Cap points so everyone can catch up. Say 25 or 30.
Units that take less than 10 years to draw should be given by preference points.
Units that take 11+ give as bonus.

Or-- Go random, but institute some type of waiting period. With today's tech, it really wouldn't be that hard to say a 2 year waiting period for hunts with 20-40% odds. 5 year wait for odds of 10-20%. 10 year wait for hunts with less than 10% odds. OIL for hunts with less than 2% odds.



DallanC said:


> My brother's beat that by a mile with his two sons hunting in lots of states.


Nah, that guy is a jerk-- he wouldn't even let his kids fill all their tags. A few years back in WY, one son shot an antelope and he wouldn't let the other son shoot one out of the herd of 100+. 
"Don't shoot that elk, we have enough meat." 
"Do we really need to shoot another muley buck?" "Nah"
"Your Grandpa just shot a buck. Don't shoot that one and we can go help him."
What a buffoon. Now his kids like to ski and fish more than hunt.


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## sheepassassin (Mar 23, 2018)

Let’s do this. DWR buys back points at $50 per antlerless point, $250 per LE point, $100 per Gs preference point, $350 per OIL point. Then we have 1 drawing where we throw all the tags for all species, units and weapon types into 1 pot. $25 per application for a total of 10 applications per year, per hunter. You can click a box and opt out if you don’t want to be eligible for a certain weapon or species and let the cards fall where they may. Kinda like what they do at the hunt expo. You have no idea what you’ll be hunting or where, if anything at all. There is no refund on tags, you can’t turn in a tag once drawn. Keep the waiting periods the same as they are now for LE and OIL species. It’ll keep everything completely random. Maybe keep the GS preference drawing the same and the spike/any bull Gs the same so guys can still hunt every year to every 3 years at the worst case scenario. Antlerless drawings completely random as well. Only way to keep things “fair”


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## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

why not split it?. you take the premium areas for bull elk for example. the San Juan,monroe,pahvant and beaver unit and keep those on the preference point system.
then the wasatch,fishlake,book cliffs,both cache units and others as a random draw. 
once you draw either obviously you lose your points that you currently have. 

just a thought I am sure there is a downside but it's too early in the morning to think it through to much.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Why would we want to move from the bonus point system to a preference point system? The preference point system is the worst system in the world, IMO. The bonus point system isn’t bad, it tries to mix the best of both worlds. 

Yes, I have high elk points and will likely pull the trigger on the hunt I will do in the next 3 years. I don’t have high points for any other species, and I will still support the bonus point system after I draw my elk tag, knowing my time for anything else is a long ways away...unless I get lucky. 

You solve this problem by letting Thanos get all the infinity stones. Cut the population in half, and hope you’re a survivor.


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

I agree with above about bonus points, at least you have a fighting chance on some of the tags with zero to points to the "nth" power.

I wish my home state would do something similar in some of the quality primo units/hunts for elk, deer, and of course the OIL oryx hunts. 5 points minimum to draw, when you do, they take away 5 points from your bank and you sit out until you have enough to apply again. If you had 10 and you draw, you can apply again the next year with 5. If you draw again, you sit out for 5 years while you accumulate enough points.

Can't do this with all, but some. I sure would like to hunt Valle Vidal again for bull elk with my own tag and not vicariously through my kids'...


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## callofthewild (Sep 7, 2007)

Critter said:


> I would do that on my bison points then go do a ranch hunt with what they pay me.


i could do this twice. with my wifes and my points. good idea i'm all in.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Everyone wants to change the system in their favor it seems, and I can't blame them. The problem is they don't understand that what change actually takes place will usually make it worse for them.

Personally, I actually would like to do away with the draw entirely, scrap all bonus and preference points. Go pure Dutch auction for all tags. You bid what you think the tag is worth to you, DWR sorts applicants from most $$$$ to fewest $ and takes the top X applicants off the pile for the X tags available and done. Guys can save up and put in a big bid every few years. 

I know I'm willing to pay more for tags than some of you cheap SOBs :mrgreen:

LOL

-DallanC


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

My favorite idea I've ever had on how to fix the bonus point system is as follows:

1. Stop awarding bonus points immediately.
2. After each year's draw, everyone loses one bonus point. Once you get back to 0, you stay at 0.

In 25 years, we'd be back to a random draw.

People who are heavily invested in the system will have 20+ years to keep trying for a bonus tag, all while the competition for bonus tags grows smaller and smaller each year as people get back to 0 points. That's plenty of time to draw a good tag. People like me (I have 3 points) wouldn't draw a bonus tag before getting back to 0 points, but that's fine, since we're not going to draw a bonus tag in any length of time anyway.


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

DallanC said:


> Everyone wants to change the system in their favor it seems, and I can't blame them. The problem is they don't understand that what change actually takes place will usually make it worse for them.
> Some may be wanting to change it in their favor. But, some want to keep the status quo because it's in their favor. I'd like to see a system that is equitable and doesn't promote entitlement. Truth be told every time we put "systems" in place to make things better we actually make them worse. We never take into account the unintended consequences even when we know what they may look like.
> 
> Personally, I actually would like to do away with the draw entirely, scrap all bonus and preference points. Go pure Dutch auction for all tags. You bid what you think the tag is worth to you, DWR sorts applicants from most $$$$ to fewest $ and takes the top X applicants off the pile for the X tags available and done. Guys can save up and put in a big bid every few years.
> ...


Its a difficult topic indeed! I think that it will only get more difficult as time goes by.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Thing with the point system is it has created a system of entitlement now. "If I put in for X years, I am OWED a tag." And once you have created the entitlement, you can't go back without those who are now "entitled" feeling something has been taken from them. When in all reality, draw hunts are a privilege, not an entitlement. But the points say that hunting a premium LE area a RIGHT you are ENTITLED to, and if you apply for more years than the next guy, you are MORE entitled. It is a horrible slippery slope. 

Five years ago, I gave up my 13 LE bull elk points in Utah (would now be 18 points) and live in Idaho, where we have no point system at all. Growing up with no point system, we just figured that sometimes a guy would luck out and get a LE elk or pronghorn tag. And sometimes you'd draw, sometimes not. And if you didn't, you'd just hunt a general unit. And you know what - I'm ok with that.


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## sheepassassin (Mar 23, 2018)

GaryFish said:


> . When in all reality, draw hunts are a privilege, not an entitlement. . .


Preference point draws are 100% an entitled draw. It's basic design gives tags to people who are more entitled to a tag than others, simply because they waited longer in line for their tags


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

I know, lets do away with all lines at everywhere. Movies, doctors offices, sporting events, and where ever else a line forms and lets just have a free for all. 

Shove people out of line and jump to the head of it to get in. But wait, here is another problem. If you are bigger and more powerful than the other guy you get in first, sounds like another entitled person getting there first.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

sheepassassin said:


> Preference point draws are 100% an entitled draw. It's basic design gives tags to people who are more entitled to a tag than others, simply because they waited longer in line for their tags


Which actually can (and do imo) work when there are enough permits to cycle through the applicants within a few years +/-


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

johnnycake said:


> Which actually can (and do imo) work when there are enough permits to cycle through the applicants within a few years +/-


^ This.

And in the qualifier lies the problem we are faced with. There just aren't enough animals/tags to go around.


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

Most people understand that there are other states to apply and hunt in too, right? 

If a person wants to swing for the fences and wait 25+ years for one tag, good for them. Why should we change something that is pretty equitable at providing opportunity for those who want an OIAL elk or deer hunt, while giving others a chance at drawing a tag for the same unit with far less years in the draw?


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## 4x4 Bronco (Sep 7, 2007)

I would be for a completely random draw. I would recommend keeping the units as they are. People can decide how risky they want to be by what units they put in for. Some units would be easier to draw and others very unlikely.
From this point on anyone who applies goes into the completely random draws. For a time some permits should be drawn by the current point pool(maybe 50% of the permits). 15 points have their name in the hat 15 times and those with 1 have their name in once. This could go on for a predetermined time (maybe 5 years) or progressively a lower percentage of the tags could go to the points group until those points are gone.
Just off the top of my head for now. I am not a lucky person, but I could learn which permits have less application pressure and try to apply for those.


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## wyoming2utah (Sep 12, 2007)

Don't change anything! There isn't an equitable solution and there never will be. What we have now is about as good as it can get--people with zero points can apply and have small chance of drawing and people who have put into the system have a better chance. That is how it should be!


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

Critter said:


> I know, lets do away with all lines at everywhere. Movies, doctors offices, sporting events, and where ever else a line forms ...


I can't believe you just said that. And, I can't believe nobody took offense to it. How can you be so ignorant? This has to be the most offensive thing I've ever heard. Canada would come to a complete halt, and stop functioning if lines were eliminated. So insensitive...



CPAjeff said:


> Most people understand that there are other states to _fish_ in ... right?


Fixed it for you. I don't see any reason to spend perfectly good money on hunting out of state when you can fish out of state. I'll hunt Utah. But I have no desire to hunt outside of Utah. I'll just go fishing.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

wyoming2utah said:


> Don't change anything! There isn't an equitable solution and there never will be. What we have now is about as good as it can get--people with zero points can apply and have small chance of drawing and people who have put into the system have a better chance. That is how it should be!


Agree 100%...
Everyone of you should read WtoUs post 10 times!
ITS THE TRUTH!


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

W2U is right. I know of a kid who drew a Buffalo with zero points this last year. The Only way to move people faster in the draw is to have more animals. Gimmick stuff isn't going to help.


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## Fishrmn (Sep 14, 2007)

You guys do realize that the system in place before the bonus points system was a completely random drawing, right?

It was changed because people felt like the odds were against them. At least with bonus points you can work your way to the front of the line. I doubt we'll be going backwards on this.

⫸<{{{{{⦅°>


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Fishrmn said:


> You guys do realize that the system in place before the bonus points system was a completely random drawing, right?
> 
> It was changed because people felt like the odds were against them. At least with bonus points you can work your way to the front of the line. I doubt we'll be going backwards on this.
> 
> ⫸<{{{{{⦅°>


That is true. However, tags for deer and elk at least, also used to be over the 
counter and statewide, and there didn't used to be any limited. This frog has been getting progressively boiled for the last 40-50 years. Back in the day when the only draw tags were the once in a lifetime tags, people seemed cool with it being totally random because it was fair because once a guy drew a bison (or goat, or sheep, or moose) tag, he was done and could no longer play in the game. But then after the winter of '92-93, and deer tags got capped, and what people could always count on getting, they now had to draw, well, things changed. That is also about the time that certain units started being managed for trophy hunting. And the only way to manage for trophies is to limit the number of animals that can be killed. Hence, further restrictions on the finite resource. Guys were willing to put up with not getting a tag one year, for the hope that they'd get one next year. But when they saw buddies draw even basic deer tags in consecutive years when they were left home, well, then the outcry of things not being fair anymore. And hence the point system was installed. At the time it seemed like a decent enough deal. I mean, put in for enough years and at some point, you are pretty much guaranteed a tag in that trophy unit you've always wanted to hunt. But the problem is the number of tags isn't enough to keep those most "entitled" by their tenure in the system rotating through. Hence, point creep.

As for the OIL tags that everyone seemed OK with a random draw back in the day anyway, well, point creep has killed hopes for anyone that didn't get into the system in the first couple years. And now, anyone entering the system is so far behind in the points race, they will never be guaranteed a tag. If you got into the point system after about 2000, you are in a random draw. Points will never be in your favor. The point system now as implemented, is only relevant to those that started collecting points before 2000.

And I'd agree - at this point, you can't go back.


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## wyoming2utah (Sep 12, 2007)

GaryFish said:


> The point system now as implemented, is only relevant to those that started collecting points before 2000.


I don't understand this logic. Why? Doesn't the guy who started putting in 2010 have a statistically better chance of drawing than the guy who started putting in in 2011?

Will it not always be that the guy with zero points has a minute chance and the guy with 1 point will have a slightly better chance than the guy with none?


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

I guess. But that is akin to saying that a guy that buys two powerball tickets has a better chance of winning than the guy that buys one. It is technically true, but functionally not true enough to matter.


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## wyoming2utah (Sep 12, 2007)

It matters to the guys who draw. I know I have drawn three tags with only 1 point (and FWIW, I started applying in 2000). I see people every year draw LE tags with 0 or 1 point. And, that is not even mentioning those who draw with just a few.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

wyoming2utah said:


> I don't understand this logic. Why? Doesn't the guy who started putting in 2010 have a statistically better chance of drawing than the guy who started putting in in 2011?
> 
> Will it not always be that the guy with zero points has a minute chance and the guy with 1 point will have a slightly better chance than the guy with none?


For the random pool he certainly does.

However many bonus points an applicant has, he gets that many "rolls of the dice" to get a lower number. A person with 0 points gets 1 roll, a person with 1 point gets 2 rolls. The lowest number out of their rolls is used as their "number" when it gets to the actual allocation phase.

-DallanC


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

PBH said:


> Fixed it for you. I don't see any reason to spend perfectly good money on hunting out of state when you can fish out of state. I'll hunt Utah. But I have no desire to hunt outside of Utah. I'll just go fishing.


Two years ago I would've thought you were crazy, but after picking up fly fishing I'm starting to think fishing is a much better way to spend time and money - no draw, no waiting periods, hardly anyone on the rivers in the fall, etc.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

One other way I guess I could support changing the system would be to keep points, but eliminate the 50% bonus pool allocation of permits. You still get additional chances in the random draw to get a low number for every bonus point you have, but all the tags are up for grabs by all the applicants.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

So what if they change the system, zero out everyone's points and go to a completely random draw system, and in 10 years, all those complaining STILL haven't drawn their coveted tag. Are we going to be pushing for starting a bonus point system again? 

I'll take Utah's system over any other system I've seen out there. I think it is the best way to distribute a very limited resource in hunting permits. If we are going to random draw, then I think we should increase the amount of tags on all units immensely and get rid of the notion of these premium type units all together. There would be no reason to invest in time and waiting periods to try and have a limited entry type hunt anymore, because you never have the opportunity to increase your chances. You and I and everyone else are literally that person with zero points right now that people are trying to feel sorry for, and have very little to no chance in drawing a tag. Ever.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

It doesn't matter what system is in place you are going to have haters. Those who can't draw a random tag to save their bacon and then there are those who can draw one every year or so. Then there are the point haters, they don't like someone having a chance to draw a tag before they do. 

I have and am in every type of draw that is out there. The random ones where I can't draw and then the straight bonus point draw where I usually need max points. Then there is the hybrid bonus point system like Utah's where I still need max points + 1 to draw a tag. I am also in the preference points chase in a couple of states but at least with the preference point chase I can make plans pretty much of when I am going to draw a tag and not just hope.

The only real way to improve any of this is to run the human population out of the state and turn it over to the animals. But then it will come to a point where even then you will need to stand in some kind of line to get a tag that you want.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

Critter said:


> The only real way to improve any of this is to run the human population out of the state and turn it over to the animals. But then it will come to a point where even then you will need to stand in some kind of line to get a tag that you want.


I'd stand in line for a tag on humans.


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## 3arabians (Dec 9, 2014)

johnnycake said:


> I'd stand in line for a tag on humans.


LOL! A good chuckle on my tuesday night! Well played my friend!!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I don’t think he was joking...


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

...right. a joke. heh. heh.


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## 7summits (Nov 28, 2017)

GaryFish said:


> I guess. But that is akin to saying that a guy that buys two powerball tickets has a better chance of winning than the guy that buys one. It is technically true, but functionally not true enough to matter.


Tell that to the guy that drew the Antelope Island Premium Le Rifle Buck permit with only 4 points.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

7summits said:


> Tell that to the guy that drew the Antelope Island Premium Le Rifle Buck permit with only 4 points.


The one in the draw that doesn't have a bonus pool tag so everybody is applying for the same tag and not just the top point holders for 50% of the tags?


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

johnnycake said:


> The one in the draw that doesn't have a bonus pool tag so everybody is applying for the same tag and not just the top point holders for 50% of the tags?


No, I'll point you to the Henry's that does have bonus pool tags, and had the following draw last year that were NOT in the bonus point pool:

Henry's Archery: (bonus pool was 20, and trickled into 19) 
3 points
5 points (two people) 
6 points
12 points

Henry's Any Weapon: (bonus pool was 21 or more) 
9 points (two people) 
14 points (two people) 
15 points
16 points
17 points
18 points (two people) 
19 points (three people)

Henry's Muzzy: (bonus pool was 21, but on 1/4 of those drew) 
11 points (two people)
14 points
18 points 
19 points

Henry's Multi-Season (bonus "pool" was 22 points, with one other in that pool) 
14 points

Heck, look at the bison odds from 2018. Someone drew the most coveted bison tag in the state (maybe even the country) with 1 point. And yes, there was a bonus pool on that one.

The current system allows people all across the spectrum to draw, just like a random draw would. Weird...


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

Great mischaracterization of my statement there Vanillabean, I applaud you in that. I specifically responded to the Antelope Island one, and of course people draw across the point levels for the 50% random tags. My point is if people want to keep their points, but maybe still soften the harm to new entrants to the system by putting all tags into the random draw. Sure, the guy with 22 points has a greater likelihood than the guy with 0, but the distribution of all of the tags will be random as opposed to only 50%.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I figured I was free to mischaracterize while you were. After all, this is an equal opportunity characterization forum. 

Antelope Island, with it's one tag, as your example? C'mon man!


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> I figured I was free to mischaracterize while you were. After all, this is an equal opportunity characterization forum.
> 
> Antelope Island, with it's one tag, as your example? C'mon man!


Which is why I was legitimately applauding you for that--no snarkasm at all. And it wasn't my example, but rather it was 7summits 

But still, I became a convert to the random draw allocation model before I used my elk points, and I remain a convert still. As long as the number of applicants exceeds the number of tags in such a way that an individual entering for the first time can't reasonably expect to draw a tag in under 15-30 years, I think point creep defeats the benefits of points (bonus or preference) and all tags should be in the same pool.

Or maybe we lower our management objectives for age of harvest and maintain only a few units as "trophy LE" buck/bull tags, and convert the rest into LE hunts but with an expectation of a branch antler bull 3-5 yr average age/or a 3yr old buck and greatly increase the number of tags issued. That would still allow for applicants to spread out if they don't want to wait 352 years for a SJ early rifle tag, and hunt bulls with a reasonable expectation of opportunity for something bigger than a spike knowing they'll be able to draw again within a few years after the end of their waiting period. And there will still be a lucky few who find dandies each year even on those lower-tier LE units.

Better still, lower the age objectives, lower the harvest rate objectives, and crank through the applicant pools at an even faster rate!

But then the quality vs quantity debate rages on and in 25 years we'll still be having this same argument. But it does help pass the time I guess.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

johnnycake said:


> As long as the number of applicants exceeds the number of tags in such a way that an individual entering for the first time can't reasonably expect to draw a tag in under 15-30 years, I think point creep defeats the benefits of points (bonus or preference) and all tags should be in the same pool.


I know "point creep" has become a 4-letter word around these parts, but just by getting rid of points doesn't solve the problem of applicants vastly exceeding the number of tags. And I will guess that getting rid of the point system does not change someone's odds all that much on the premium units to draw. It's not like you all the sudden have good odds to draw the Henry's rifle tag next year if we get rid of the point system.

I need a favor from someone that is smarter than me. Can someone figure the true odds of someone drawing the San Juan early rifle tag in 2018 with 0 points? Yes, the odds will be increased from whatever that number is if you eliminated points all together, but by how much?



johnnycake said:


> But then the quality vs quantity debate rages on and in 25 years we'll still be having this same argument. But it does help pass the time I guess.


I need something to do when I retire...because at the rate we are going, it won't be time with a tag in my hand out hunting!


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

I presented it on here before and the more I say it the more I stick to it. 

Every 5 years you don't draw you get an extra point. Caps at 5. All tags are part of one pool. Waiting periods apply.

So if you currently have 22 points, you now have 4. If you have 15, you have 3. If you had 30 (not possible)- you now have 5. Essentially- we have 5 tiers of points and thats it. 

I don't know if this does benefit me or not. I don't really care. I don't want to swing it my way. I am an archery hunter so the "odds" are in my favor anyways. I also believe besides two ridiculous units in the state - you can put in effort and shoot just as good of a deer on general units. Sean Morgan shoots a 200" deer on public land every season. I say all that to simply say - I don't really have a bias. What I do know is that point creep is a system that will only continue to get worse. 

I also think this, after some crying, helps relieve pressure. I have seen what it's like to have 20 deer points and be stuck to one maybe two units, because anything less is a waste of those 20 years. While you may be upset because you were close - now that you only have 4-5 points -- GO WILD! Put in for a different unit and enjoy yourself.



But... I am probably wrong. Leave it, change it.. whatever. I am more concerned about our corruption and mismanagement than me never getting a tag. I just want my kids to get a general season tag without waiting years for that.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Vanilla said:


> It's not like you all the sudden have good odds to draw the Henry's rifle tag next year if we get rid of the point system.


Funny that when the Henry's was at it's peak for # of great deer, it was managed for deer about 2 years younger. Even now they let "management" hunters shoot young deer, so what's the difference?

The difference is this system has so many people wrapped up in the "value" and superiority that it helps sell tags at auctions, and it keeps anyone from calling for change because "I'm in front of the guy with less points".

It's really pretty funny what they have been able to create in the name of economy, not biology.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> I need a favor from someone that is smarter than me. Can someone figure the true odds of someone drawing the San Juan early rifle tag in 2018 with 0 points? Yes, the odds will be increased from whatever that number is if you eliminated points all together, but by how much?


2018 odds of a 0pt applicant under the current system: 0.057%
2018 odds of a random draw with no point system: 1.104%

It's not until an applicant has 19 points in the current system that he/she would have odds equivalent/slightly greater to those of the random system at 1.132%.


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

Here is an Idea: Take away all the youth tags add them to the top point holders (bonus pool), Make the youth wait till 16 again to go hunt big game. I'm guessing this will move some people through. Plus according to all studies we will lose the hunter recruitment and in the long run it should be easier to draw tags down the road. If there are to many hunters for tags we can lose a few and still make the same amount of money. oh I forgot about application fees, Let just raise the price to make up the difference. Also, I would be nice if people would quit having their wives put in when they won't even carry the gun or pull the trigger, Saw this happen on a couple hunts.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

RandomElk16 said:


> The difference is this system has so many people wrapped up in the "value" and superiority that it helps sell tags at auctions, and it keeps anyone from calling for change because "I'm in front of the guy with less points".


My opinion doesn't have anything to do with being ahead of others in the line. I'm going to draw my elk tag before any of these hypothetical changes could ever be put into place, and then I'm right back at the back of the line with everyone else.

I philosophically think that the bonus point system, with the 50/50 split the way Utah does it, is simply the best system for distributing tags when the demand severely outnumbers the supply. That is my belief, it has nothing to do with where I sit, where I will be sitting in 5 years, or anything else. I simply believe it's the best system available for distributing a very limited resource. I'm at 21 years and counting and not gotten lucky. My buddy drew a SJ early rifle tag with 6 points. The system works if people actually look at it for what it is.

And if you're only concerned about biology and not economy, we can kill a CRAP TON more bulls in this state and not impact the health of the herds negatively. But then I'm sure you'd be mad at the state for mismanaging the "trophy" bulls, like everyone else would.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> 2018 odds of a 0pt applicant under the current system: 0.057%
> 2018 odds of a random draw with no point system: 1.104%
> 
> It's not until an applicant has 19 points in the current system that he/she would have odds equivalent/slightly greater to those of the random system at 1.132%.


You can always count on this guy to spit knowledge! After I hunt elk, I hope we go to a random draw so my odds go right back up to where they are now for the San Juan! :smile:

(I'm kidding. Settle down. I'm kidding.)


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

Brookie said:


> Here is an Idea: Take away all the youth tags add them to the top point holders (bonus pool)


Correct me if I'm wrong, but there are only youth tags for antlerless and general season tags--not LE or OIAL.

Overall, I think the preference point system for GS bucks and antlerless elk/deer/pronghorn works very well in Utah. But the bonus point system, not so much.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

I think that it was decided on this forum a few years ago that those who have drawn a tag with very few points in Utah like the way that the bonus point system works. Those who have never drawn a tag in the system think that it sucks.


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## bowguyonly (Dec 31, 2018)

grew up here. just getting into this. archery only. 
what is point creep?
archery has to put in for general season buck?
had to ask.
is it even logical at 33 yrs old to put in for LE?
the system seems confusing if not as confusing as rolling dice in vegas


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

The general deer season point system is on preference points so the tags go for the high point holders in the unit. Archery has to put in for the draw but should be fairly easy to draw. 

The LE & OIL hunts use a hybred bonus point system. For units that have more than 1 permit 50% go to the high point holders, the rest of the applicants have a chance for the other 50%. 

At 33 if you put in for archery hunts on the LE units you should be able to draw in 5 or 6 years, but I am just guessing on this one. You need to go look at the information on the DOW site to figure that one out.


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## bowguyonly (Dec 31, 2018)

Critter said:


> The general deer season point system is on preference points so the tags go for the high point holders in the unit. Archery has to put in for the draw but should be fairly easy to draw.
> 
> The LE & OIL hunts use a hybred bonus point system. For units that have more than 1 permit 50% go to the high point holders, the rest of the applicants have a chance for the other 50%.
> 
> At 33 if you put in for archery hunts on the LE units you should be able to draw in 5 or 6 years, but I am just guessing on this one. You need to go look at the information on the DOW site to figure that one out.


thank you


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

johnnycake said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong, but there are only youth tags for antlerless and general season tags--not LE or OIAL.


That's correct, with the exception of turkey. LE turkey has a 20% youth allocation too.


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## ridgetop (Sep 13, 2007)

I like it the way it is except they should change the rule where all "odd' numbered tags are put in the bonus point pool. Instead of the random pool like it is now. That would be one way to thin out a few of the higher points.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

^ Ridge, I’d support that.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

ridgetop said:


> I like it the way it is except they should change the rule where all "odd' numbered tags are put in the bonus point pool. Instead of the random pool like it is now. That would be one way to thin out a few of the higher points.


Some one needs to work on getting that proposal up before the WB


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> ^ Ridge, I'd support that.


Of course you would....

I would NOT. It would mean that all units where one tag is offered would only have tags available to high point holders. The saving grace to Utah's system is that everyone gets a chance for any tag they apply for (not counting those where preference points are used). We shouldn't move away from that.

Even if the first tag were random and the second and third tags both went to the top point holders, that would have pretty serious implications on the draw odds for OIAL units where few permits are offered. For example, Pine Valley desert sheep. Last year, four top point holders competed for one bonus tag and 655 other hunters competed for two tags. Change it like Ridge says, and all of a sudden there are 4 top point holders competing for two tags and 655 other hunters competing for one tag.

No thanks.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Clarq said:


> Of course you would....


You say that in such a condescending way. You've got to be pretty sure of yourself and that you are right and everyone else is wrong to talk to someone like that. Get on with your bad self!

I would be fine if 1 permit hunts were exempted from that equation, and kept random. Otherwise, you're talking one tag per hunt, and under the current system it has to go one way or the other. Don't think you're so smart that your way has to be correct.


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> You say that in such a condescending way.


:rotfl: Having a rough day? I wrote four words on a page. You made an assumption about my tone and my intentions. All I was saying is yes, of course a person near the top of the point pool would prefer a point system that gives more tags to the top. Likewise, I, with my few points, have a different preference (which I shared). We hold two opposing opinions, but for the same selfish reason: we want to draw a tag and go hunting.



Vanilla said:


> You've got to be pretty sure of yourself and that you are right and everyone else is wrong to talk to someone like that.


Yes, I am pretty sure of myself when I say that you would support what Ridge proposed. It's a safe thing to say, considering the fact that you stated in a post just previously that you would, in fact, support it.

I never said anything about anyone being wrong, or about me being right.



Vanilla said:


> Get on with your bad self!


And yet, which one of us has resorted to personal attacks?



Vanilla said:


> I would be fine if 1 permit hunts were exempted from that equation, and kept random. Otherwise, you're talking one tag per hunt, and under the current system it has to go one way or the other. Don't think you're so smart that your way has to be correct.


Again, :rotfl: I simply expressed which alternative, out of two, that I prefer. I agree that the tag has to go one way or the other. I want it to go my way. You want it to go your way. We're looking out for ourselves. It's not complicated. What perplexes me is why you got so upset when I pointed that out.

And for the record, I don't believe there is such a thing as a "correct" point system. They're all stupid human inventions designed to favor some at the expense of others. I do believe some are better than others.

You can look at Wyoming if you want to see an example of what happens when more tags go to the top point holders. I've studied drawing odds in both states, and I would take Utah's system over Wyoming's any day, especially when it comes to OIAL or high demand tags. The moose and sheep drawings are especially dismal to anyone who didn't enter the game 15+ years ago. I don't even bother.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

You didn’t just offer an alternative, you were kind of a condescending (bleep). But that’s okay, I’m over it. 

And you can assume all you want what my motivation is for supporting the current system, but that doesn’t make your assumptions correct. 

Back to our regularly scheduled programming of telling johnnycake that he’s a shmuck. Something we can all agree upon!


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> You didn't just offer an alternative, you were kind of a condescending (bleep). But that's okay, I'm over it.
> 
> And you can assume all you want what my motivation is for supporting the current system, but that doesn't make your assumptions correct.
> 
> Back to our regularly scheduled programming of telling johnnycake that he's a shmuck. Something we can all agree upon!


Hang on, I need to see if I can print out my free Dall sheep tag for the upcoming season. Might need to make room in my book of tags first, prolly have to squeeze it in between my grizzly tag and my 5 black bear tags


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Vanilla said:


> But then I'm sure you'd be mad at the state for mismanaging the "trophy" bulls, like everyone else would.


Nope - that isn't me either. I think harvesting an elk is an amazing feeling. I would rather people got that feeling, and more often.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

derekp1999 said:


> 2018 odds of a 0pt applicant under the current system: 0.057%
> 2018 odds of a random draw with no point system: 1.104%
> 
> It's not until an applicant has 19 points in the current system that he/she would have odds equivalent/slightly greater to those of the random system at 1.132%.


So a random draw gives us all the opportunity of 19 points? SOLD!

Really puts into perspective how clogged it is at the top. 19 years and you have a 1% chance.. yep the system is solid :smile:


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

RandomElk16 said:


> Really puts into perspective how clogged it is at the top. 19 years and you have a 1% chance.. yep the system is solid :smile:


That's actually a fair point, but doesn't tell the whole story. Because at 40 years in the random draw, you're still at 1%. (And still likely to have not drawn this specific tag.) So it doesn't convince me the other way is any more solid. As has been said, no system is perfect when the demand so greatly outweighs the supply.

johnnytotheC, I don't even like black bears. And dall sheep hunting seems like way too much work to be enjoyable. I'm not even jealous.


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## Kevin D (Sep 15, 2007)

My definition of a truly fair draw system: One where I drew tags every year, and the rest of you all? Well, better luck next year....8)

Seriously, back in the days before the current system it was frustrating to watch the same guys draw tags time after time while others seemed cursed. The current system was devised that given time, even the most cursed among us had an increasing opportunity to hunt. Having lived under both systems, ain't no way I'd want to revert back to the days of a totally random draw, even if I started with zero points!


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## wyoming2utah (Sep 12, 2007)

RandomElk16 said:


> So a random draw gives us all the opportunity of 19 points? SOLD!
> 
> Really puts into perspective how clogged it is at the top. 19 years and you have a 1% chance.. yep the system is solid :smile:


This is of course completely hypothetical because there is no way in hell anyway can correctly predict how applicants would spread out if we did have a random draw.

And, I know, for example, that my odds of drawing that LE archery tag on Fish Lake are almost guaranteed at a point number far below 19 in the current system. In other words, I like how some hunts are much easier to draw currently and almost guarantee a tag to those who have waited in line. In a completely random draw, I may just be that totally unlucky guy that can't ever draw!

Sorry, but don't change a thing! The system is as good as it gets!


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

The "bonus/preference" point system was never envisioned to exclude more hunters than it benefits on hard to draw permits. There is no way it would have been accepted if they had said "We will start a point system that benefits only the people who apply within the first 5 years and excludes those who come after." 

Seems like everyone agrees that we will wait our turn if we see we will actually get a turn.
The problem comes with hunts where 10% will get a guaranteed turn, while only 10% of the remaining 90% will be drawn randomly. 
80% will not draw and have the opportunity.
10% are guaranteed. 10% are lucky. 80% will never draw.
The other solution is 20% are lucky and 80% never draw-- but everyone has a similar chance to draw.
Waiting periods or point caps can level the playing field to give a similar opportunity to all. And Preference Points work when people can be moved thru the system in a reasonable amount of time.

But change probably won't happen for a lonnnnggggg time. Too many addicted to their point accounts. 

...


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

Packout said:


> The "bonus/preference" point system was never envisioned to exclude more hunters than it benefits on hard to draw permits. There is no way it would have been accepted if they had said "We will start a point system that benefits only the people who apply within the first 5 years and excludes those who come after."
> 
> Seems like everyone agrees that we will wait our turn if we see we will actually get a turn.
> The problem comes with hunts where 10% will get a guaranteed turn, while only 10% of the remaining 90% will be drawn randomly.
> ...


I'd guess the change is coming much sooner. So many resources to see true draw odds the base of the pyramid scheme is no longer in the dark about how the current system is screwing all new comers.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

wyoming2utah said:


> This is of course completely hypothetical because there is no way in hell anyway can correctly predict how applicants would spread out if we did have a random draw.


Technology now allows simulation of the draw hundred thousands of times with a single push of the button. Change the variables check the out come. While not 100% accurate it's **** close if you run it enough times.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

RandomElk16 said:


> So a random draw gives us all the opportunity of 19 points? SOLD!
> 
> Really puts into perspective how clogged it is at the top. 19 years and you have a 1% chance.. yep the system is solid :smile:


It does paint a damning picture of the bonus point draw and seemingly brings to light the virtues of a random draw... but I think the reason that Vanilla picked the San Juan early rifle was to paint one of the bleakest pictures possible.



wyoming2utah said:


> This is of course completely hypothetical because there is no way in hell anyway can correctly predict how applicants would spread out if we did have a random draw.


Wy2ut makes a great point... assume that Utah does switch to a random draw system and adopts a system say similar to that of NM where the applicant can make multiple selections. This would completely change the distribution of applicants simply because under that system it makes sense to alter your strategy. Personally, I would apply in a completely different manner under a random system than I currently do under the bonus point system.

Sure, we can run simulations on or make predictions within the current bonus point system and end up getting purdy darn close... like within fractions of fractions of percentage points... trust me, I know. However, the accuracy of those predictions is strictly tied to the quantity and quality of data available to support the simulation/prediction. For the bonus point system we have many years worth of real, quality data. For a random system in Utah we have nothing so there is no way we could forecast or predict how the applicant pool would redistribute within a random system. A prediction by definition is an assumption of future behavior based upon past behavior... when we have no concept of past behavior we cannot make a meaningful prediction.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

weaversamuel76 said:


> I'd guess the change is coming much sooner. So many resources to see true draw odds the base of the pyramid scheme is no longer in the dark about how the current system is screwing all new comers.


No way change will happen soon. That is pure fantasy. I know a couple lawyer / hunters who paid alot of $$$ over the years to accrue points in good faith due to the system put in place by the DWR. They said any major change to that system would cause some major lawsuits from high point holders. I know I for one would chip in $$$ to help fund a lawsuit to protect my several DECADES of moose points. I've been waiting well over 20 years, paying alot of $$$ to stay in the game, to chase that tag. I'll fight to keep my FAIR advantage.

This is like the talk of getting rid of the lifetime license holders... you just can't. It would cause all kinds of lawsuits. The only thing the DWR can do is let'em die off eventually.

The BEST you can hope for in the draw is no more point allocations to hunts. Full stop. Then, overtime people with existing points will get weeded out if they draw, quit hunting or die. Then at some point down the road you will have a hunter base with no bonus points at all, and can have your "fair draw".

-DallanC


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## jason21 (Sep 18, 2018)

I feel the only way to really really get rid of the point systems or phase it out. would have to be a 30 year plan to get rid of it, allowing points that people have to be used and spent, and allow those still in the chase to get their chance as well, its like the bell to all of the newcomers to start applying for your points now. but thats my only thought on how to phase it out without totally ****ing everyone that has spent their life using the system correctly.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

There is no way that "allowing" the point holders to spend their points when there are so few tags offered. 

There are some tags that are offered right now that if you allowed all the point holders to just draw the tag it would still take more years than a lot have left to draw that tag.


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## jason21 (Sep 18, 2018)

Critter said:


> There is no way that "allowing" the point holders to spend their points when there are so few tags offered.
> 
> There are some tags that are offered right now that if you allowed all the point holders to just draw the tag it would still take more years than a lot have left to draw that tag.


Critter, I was just making a hypothetical, honestly all the math that would be involved to run out a cycle to convert a system to a random, hurts my head.

The variables involved are enormous considering different units and tag allocations and pointholders in the system. Someone way smarter than me could create that system and scenario and run it out to make a dterminiation, but youre right. Well never see it happen in our lifetime. I was just making the point that if the system were to change, it would have to be a super long transition that wouldnt benefit anyone in this forum in their lifetime most likely.


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

As I have read this I've come to the conclusion: That people want to hunt more in their lifetime in the units they want to hunt. The only way it gets fixed if there are more animals in those units period. Guess what Utah is losing habitat and its only going to get worse with the number animals.


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

DallanC said:


> No way change will happen soon. That is pure fantasy. I know a couple lawyer / hunters who paid alot of $$$ over the years to accrue points in good faith due to the system put in place by the DWR. They said any major change to that system would cause some major lawsuits from high point holders. I know I for one would chip in $$$ to help fund a lawsuit to protect my several DECADES of moose points. I've been waiting well over 20 years, paying alot of $$$ to stay in the game, to chase that tag. I'll fight to keep my FAIR advantage.
> 
> This is like the talk of getting rid of the lifetime license holders... you just can't. It would cause all kinds of lawsuits. The only thing the DWR can do is let'em die off eventually.
> 
> ...


It's actually not the same as lifetime licenses because you didn't buy points they were awarded. Things given can just as easily be taken away or diluted into nothing measurable.
The MAJORITY of hunters are at a significant disadvantage in the current system. 
The bottom tiers of the system are already discontented when the middle tiers see thier fate of never drawing a bonus tag then change will happen.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

weaversamuel76 said:


> It's actually not the same as lifetime licenses because you didn't buy points they were awarded. Things given can just as easily be taken away or diluted into nothing measurable.
> The MAJORITY of hunters are at a significant disadvantage in the current system.
> The bottom tiers of the system are already discontented when the middle tiers see thier fate of never drawing a bonus tag then change will happen.
> 
> Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


Actually it'll probably never change. The more they can limit units can make them even more desirable to hunt which raises more auction money which is Utah's main goal is anyways.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

weaversamuel76 said:


> It's actually not the same as lifetime licenses because you didn't buy points they were awarded. Things given can just as easily be taken away or diluted into nothing measurable.
> The MAJORITY of hunters are at a significant disadvantage in the current system.


You absolutely can "buy" a point. Its the first option on the page of species / units when you apply. I have only ever bought bear points for example, the point purchase option is "BER" for that specific hunt. Its even more expensive as people now have to purchase a big game license before they an pay for that point. It can add up to a considerable amount of money over decades, especially for the non residents.



> The bottom tiers of the system are already discontented when the middle tiers see thier fate of never drawing a bonus tag then change will happen.


Yea well... lower tiers are younger people. Higher tiers are older people. Who has more $$$ to fight this fight? We know the DWR makes most decisions tightly related to $$$ it seems.

-DallanC


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

Lower tiers can be anyone. Plenty of money is raised all the time by groups with many members even when those members have less. 

Deciding to pick a fight is probably a bigger huddle than raising money


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> You didn't just offer an alternative, you were kind of a condescending (bleep). But that's okay, I'm over it.
> 
> And you can assume all you want what my motivation is for supporting the current system, but that doesn't make your assumptions correct.
> 
> Back to our regularly scheduled programming of telling johnnycake that he's a shmuck. Something we can all agree upon!


Again with the name calling and assumptions. Nice.

You expressed support for an alternative to the current system, not the current system. An alternative that I don't agree with. That's what prompted my comment.

If you said something along the lines of, "No, Ridge, I support the current system," I wouldn't have said a word.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> It does paint a damning picture of the bonus point draw and seemingly brings to light the virtues of a random draw... but I think the reason that Vanilla picked the San Juan early rifle was to paint one of the bleakest pictures possible.


That is correct.



derekp1999 said:


> Wy2ut makes a great point... assume that Utah does switch to a random draw system and adopts a system say similar to that of NM where the applicant can make multiple selections. This would completely change the distribution of applicants simply because under that system it makes sense to alter your strategy. Personally, I would apply in a completely different manner under a random system than I currently do under the bonus point system.
> 
> Sure, we can run simulations on or make predictions within the current bonus point system and end up getting purdy darn close... like within fractions of fractions of percentage points... trust me, I know. However, the accuracy of those predictions is strictly tied to the quantity and quality of data available to support the simulation/prediction. For the bonus point system we have many years worth of real, quality data. For a random system in Utah we have nothing so there is no way we could forecast or predict how the applicant pool would redistribute within a random system. A prediction by definition is an assumption of future behavior based upon past behavior... when we have no concept of past behavior we cannot make a meaningful prediction.


Have I ever said I want to be derekp when I grow up?



weaversamuel76 said:


> It's actually not the same as lifetime licenses because you didn't buy points they were awarded.


Not true. I just bought a turkey point a few weeks ago. It was my first one ever! I was so happy about it. I selected point only, paid $10 and they gave me a point. That is buying a point.


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Critter said:


> I know, lets do away with all lines at everywhere. Movies, doctors offices, sporting events, and where ever else a line forms and lets just have a free for all.
> Not the same thing. This analogy is almost childish. Waiting in line for a movie ticket, concert ticket, or any other service does not guarantee you will get that item or service. It also does not give you preference points for the next time that show is in town. You get in line and when it runs out it runs out. At least with tags you are in a random equitable drawing and you have the same chance an anyone else to get one.
> 
> Shove people out of line and jump to the head of it to get in. But wait, here is another problem. If you are bigger and more powerful than the other guy you get in first, sounds like another entitled person getting there first.
> Isn't that pretty much what happens with some concert tickets, black Friday sales and shortages of certain items?


Again....nothing personal just some old guy's opinion.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

wyoming2utah said:


> This is of course completely hypothetical because there is no way in hell anyway can correctly predict how applicants would spread out if we did have a random draw.
> 
> And, I know, for example, that my odds of drawing that LE archery tag on Fish Lake are almost guaranteed at a point number far below 19 in the current system. In other words, I like how some hunts are much easier to draw currently and almost guarantee a tag to those who have waited in line. In a completely random draw, I may just be that totally unlucky guy that can't ever draw!
> 
> Sorry, but don't change a thing! The system is as good as it gets!


For sure.. but if it was completely random I imagine that a TON would put in for San Juan - and you may have even better odds at fish lake lol.

I think random draw would benefit archery/ML people, especially on units that are outside the top 3-5 because by nature, more people would flood to those top units.

That isn't a case for it- I am just saying that odds on some units would decrease for that reason while I believe odds on other units would go way up!

It's interesting to me that there is a nearly statewide OTC opportunity in Arizona this month - but the reason so many don't take it is because they HAVE to get their crack at the strip in a draw. That's what I was referring to with the "by nature"


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