# Oil Plummets



## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

Ouch!
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil-price-crashes-record-low


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

Ouch indeed. Fossil fuel energy all of a sudden became "free"...


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Its the canary in the coal mine... and we haven't seen the bottom yet. Futures on oil hit nearly $-1.5 today... NEGATIVE DOLLAR FIFTY! Its costing more to store oil than oil is worth. 

Our economy is so off the rails right now its unbelievable. Bad things are coming people, get ready.

-DallanC


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

DallanC said:


> Its the canary in the coal mine... and we haven't seen the bottom yet. Futures on oil hit nearly $-1.5 today... NEGATIVE DOLLAR FIFTY! Its costing more to store oil than oil is worth.
> 
> Our economy is so off the rails right now its unbelievable. Bad things are coming people, get ready.
> 
> -DallanC


^^^ This!

The fear and economic disaster caused by COVID-19 will far surpass the death toll, it already has. Time to open back up the world.


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## johnrr65 (Nov 7, 2019)

DallanC said:


> Its the canary in the coal mine... and we haven't seen the bottom yet. Futures on oil hit nearly $-1.5 today... NEGATIVE DOLLAR FIFTY! Its costing more to store oil than oil is worth.
> 
> Our economy is so off the rails right now its unbelievable. Bad things are coming people, get ready.
> 
> -DallanC


+1


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

I'm in the healthcare division of my global conglomerate company. Had a company meeting today with the Corporate Overloads, going over future projections and strategies. 

One thing that is NOT being discussed virtually anywhere, is Hospitals are losing money hand over fist. Sure there has been some chatter about minor layoffs here and there... but the big hospital contracts, billion dollar deals... are DEAD. That industry is collapsing from the inside out as they hemorrhage cash at a ferocious rate. 

I think there will be a hospital / healthcare bailout that will dwarf anything imaginable.

-DallanC


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

Such crazy times to see the oil debacle. I'd rather pay $4 a gallon than deal with what lies ahead. Both of Dallan's posts are spot on. 

My son was in a severe accident last week and I spent the night in the hospital with him (by special permission as they aren't letting in visitors). Talking to the nurses, they were glad to have the work. No elective surgeries and no 'non-trauma' surgeries (such as knee surgery) means they have had layoffs and hours cut back. This same son is a surgical assistant and was laid off 2 weeks ago. The nurses were talking about the difficulties of the hospitals being able to make ends meet. The health care industry is upside down- just like the oil industry and many more.....


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

News breaking that Disney just furloughed 100,000 workers.


-DallanC


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

Our local Hospital filed chapter 11. Got notices in the mail today.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I keep hearing about all this catastrophic oil pricing, and subsequent slashing of gas prices across the country. I drove by 6 gas stations today in 3 different cities and only one was below $2.15 per gallon for 85. 

I saw $1.69 at Sams the other day when I drove by. 

I’d love to start burning some fuel. Tell the idiots in counties outside Utah County to allow my presence and I’ll happily go!


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## goosefreak (Aug 20, 2009)

Welcome to “the cure worse that the virus”


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

Vanilla said:


> I keep hearing about all this catastrophic oil pricing, and subsequent slashing of gas prices across the country. I drove by 6 gas stations today in 3 different cities and only one was below $2.15 per gallon for 85.
> 
> I saw $1.69 at Sams the other day when I drove by.
> 
> I'd love to start burning some fuel. Tell the idiots in counties outside Utah County to allow my presence and I'll happily go!


Yep. I have a boat itchin' to go catch springtime crappie and spawning smallies...


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

CPAjeff said:


> DallanC said:
> 
> 
> > Its the canary in the coal mine... and we haven't seen the bottom yet. Futures on oil hit nearly $-1.5 today... NEGATIVE DOLLAR FIFTY! Its costing more to store oil than oil is worth.
> ...


How do you just "open back up the world" in the midst of a new global pandemic with no vaccine or reliable treatment?

I ask as these futures contracts are responding to more than just various government restrictions. Look out past the May ones closing tomorrow. People aren't just going to rush back to restaurants, theme parks, hotels and airlines as we did before Covid-19 without more progress on the disease. A healthy majority of Americans make that clear in polling. And investors know it.

The US and world aren't just going to "open". Much of our economy is going to experience a massive restructuring in the months and years ahead. It's already happening. And the market is reflecting that.

(Not to mention, it's hard for me to summon up more sympathy for these companies losing their pants on futures contracts than Americans whose retirements tanked. Futures contracts exist in an ecosystem with unique risks and they lost this gamble. It sucks and will ripple widely through our economy but why aren't companies expected to be as prepared as you expected individuals to be in the other thread?).


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

DallanC said:


> News breaking that Disney just furloughed 100,000 workers.
> 
> -DallanC


I guess I will hold off on buying those Disney shares.

A couple of additional thoughts.

1. I agree that our hospitals need a lot of economic help. Dallan is right. One of the first loosening actions we need is to allow a broader range of "elective" surgeries and procedures. We now know enough about our needs for coronavirus care that we can safely open things up for health professionals not dealing with the pandemic. Supplies can be suitably apportioned to serve both needs. The governor mentioned this specifically last week and it needs to happen. Also, congress has proposed economic help for hospitals in the most recent round of aid. This also needs to happen.

2. $1.69 still at Sams Club. Garfield County opened things up today. Now we just need the a**hats in Wasatch county to follow suit.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

The Sh!t has hit the fan now boys! Hope people have prepared to be upwind of directed flow. This has become a world depression now, and like for mentioned - its NOT going to come back to "normal" for a long time.


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## Daisy (Jan 4, 2010)

Vanilla said:


> I keep hearing about all this catastrophic oil pricing, and subsequent slashing of gas prices across the country. I drove by 6 gas stations today in 3 different cities and only one was below $2.15 per gallon for 85.


You can blame Maverick for that. Maverick dictates fuel pricing in Utah/WYO/Idaho. Mid sized oil and gas distributors are getting their gas for well under $1/gal right now. Mark up on gas is typically less than $0.10/gal. Now most fuel sellers are taking over a buck mainly because they are trying to make up for lost traffic and volume of fuel. Gas and C-stores make their $$$ getting the customer inside the store. Smaller and mid-sized sellers of fuel don't want to upset Maverick, they can bury the smaller guys.


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## caddis8 (Sep 10, 2007)

It's been $2.05 in Sidney, NE for 6 weeks. 15 miles away in Peetz, CO it is $1.45. 60 Miles away in Ogalalla, NE it is $1.39. 

I'm sure the local gas folks are holding price because they can. Don't love that at all. 

Social unreast?


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

The collateral damage is starting to be worse than the disease. 

Some people will do anything to stay alive, while others are willing to do anything to live. Two different types of mindsets.


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## goosefreak (Aug 20, 2009)

And yet, we allowed all this to happen...


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I’m guessing there is more to this than just The Rona. Rona has been a contributor, but some of the recent trade practices and production war couldn’t have helped.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

People were getting too rich too fast. The lessons of 2008 were too easily forgotten. 

M-M-M-My Corona was simply the match that started the fire.

I sure hope that all these businesses that are now being sustained and funded by the american people remember that fact when they're allowed and able to function again.


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

Vanilla said:


> I'm guessing there is more to this than just The Rona. Rona has been a contributor, but some of the recent trade practices and production war couldn't have helped.


Correct - it was the perfect storm between the COVID-19 overreaction and OPEC/Russia/Saudi fighting.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

CPAjeff said:


> Correct - it was the perfect storm between the COVID-19 overreaction and OPEC/Russia/Saudi fighting.


^bingo. Putin and the House of Saud chose a great time to play petrochicken, and then the demand floor dropped out from under them causing a runaway train.

Alaska needs ~$70/barrel to have a balanced state budget. Ugly doesn't even begin to describe it.


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## wyogoob (Sep 7, 2007)

Geeze, there's a surprise. Been over producing for a number of years....running out of room to transport it and/or store it.

$2.29 here in Evingston (refinery is 5 miles east of town)...0.99 in Davenport IA

F-ing Hydrocarbon Hooligans

Drill baby drill!!

.


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## hondodawg (Mar 13, 2013)

wyogoob said:


> Geeze, there's a surprise. Been over producing for a number of years....running out of room to transport it and/or store it.
> 
> $2.29 here in Evingston (refinery is 5 miles east of town)...0.99 in Davenport IA
> 
> ...


My gas buddy app is showing Salina,UT at $1.15 at Loves & Maverick 
I'm having a hard time believing that, maybe a typo

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

hondodawg said:


> My gas buddy app is showing Salina,UT at $1.15 at Loves & Maverick
> I'm having a hard time believing that, maybe a typo
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


My buddy told me it was $1.17 in Salina over the weekend. Maybe it's true...


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

I know richfield today was 1.34


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

Cedar City is still over $2 per gallon. 

We have a long history of gas price gouging in our area. 
Has always been a joke here. Pretty much aways at least 20 cents over Salt Lake area.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I get frustrated big time over gas prices. They screw with things and people just for fun, it seems. I’d say I was happy to watch the bottom fall out on them if it didn’t mean it was falling out on the rest of us in the process.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

For gas prices you need to look at where the nearest refinery is that delivers to the area that you are in. Also your towns cost of living is also going to factor into the price. 

I have almost always lived in a area that is about as far away from a refinery as you can get before you start getting closer to another one. So I have always paid more for gas or diesel than those that are closer to the refinery.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

That seems to contradict what Goob mentioned above. I realize transportation takes money. They charge what they want to charge.


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Daisy said:


> You can blame Maverick for that. Maverick dictates fuel pricing in Utah/WYO/Idaho. Mid sized oil and gas distributors are getting their gas for well under $1/gal right now. Mark up on gas is typically less than $0.10/gal. Now most fuel sellers are taking over a buck mainly because they are trying to make up for lost traffic and volume of fuel. Gas and C-stores make their $$$ getting the customer inside the store. Smaller and mid-sized sellers of fuel don't want to upset Maverick, they can bury the smaller guys.


Gas *is* a money maker and the myth of it being a loss leader with $.10 or less markup is a myth. When you open a gas station the highest cost comes from the gas infrastucture. No one in their right mind would invest that much (tanks, pumps and all the EPA crap that will never stop) in being able to sell gas only to make coffee, beer and snacks their money maker.

As I said in another post. This whole thing is a social experiment derived from panic. I am told by a source very involved in this virus research that almost 30% of ameircans already have/had it. They are not allowed to publish or diverge this information untill MORE research is done.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Bingo card is getting closer. "Social experiment" isn't the winner but it's getting me closer.


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## wyogoob (Sep 7, 2007)

Evingston gasoline hits $2.05


OMG!


.


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

wyogoob said:


> Evingston gasoline hits $2.05
> 
> OMG!
> 
> .


Right in line with Tooele...-O,- I guess a trip south to Fishlake is in order, then I can fill up my big truck in Salina for $30.....


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Maverick at I-15 and 9000 S = 2.09
Maverick at 9000 S and 2700 W = 1.89


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

backcountry said:


> How do you just "open back up the world" in the midst of a new global pandemic with no vaccine or reliable treatment?
> 
> The US and world aren't just going to "open". Much of our economy is going to experience a massive restructuring in the months and years ahead. It's already happening. And the market is reflecting that.
> 
> (Not to mention, it's hard for me to summon up more sympathy for these companies losing their pants on futures contracts than Americans whose retirements tanked. Futures contracts exist in an ecosystem with unique risks and they lost this gamble. It sucks and will ripple widely through our economy but why aren't companies expected to be as prepared as you expected individuals to be in the other thread?).


For starters, all businesses open up at a certain capacity to reduce the sudden rush on products and services.

As a society, we have become very, very frail to think we cannot function without a vaccine. The numbers and data will show herd immunity already exists, sit back and watch.

Not sure what you're getting at with a restructuring on an economy, unless you mean an increase in domestic manufacturing and production and a transition away from fossil fuels - not there yet by the way, but one day maybe.

I agree on the E&P companies losing their pants on futures contracts. E&P companies are funny though, they knee jerk at everything and scramble like ants when you disturb their mound when they hear bad news.

On a lighter note, I spent the day looking at antelope for my daughter's upcoming youth muzzleloader tag in August and was able to get away from all this nonsense for the day.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

High Desert Elk said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> > How do you just "open back up the world" in the midst of a new global pandemic with no vaccine or reliable treatment?
> ...


Herd immunity definitely doesn't exist yet. Are accidentally misusing that phrase? Herd immunity comes about when a certain threshold of citizens has been infected or vaccinated. The most commonly accepted threshold for emerging diseases like Covid-19 is roughly 70%+ must have developed immunity through one of those methods. I don't know of a single study claiming 80% of Americans have already been infected.

Not a single reliable scientist is claiming herd immunity already exists. Covid-19 wouldn't continue to spread so consistently if it did. Reliable science doesn't back up the claim.

We can definitely function without a vaccine but that's a long way from CPA's rather silly comment about "open back up the world".

Per restructuring... you hint at some of it. Business will not go back to normal. Restaurants will have to operate at lower capacities when we can safely loosen social distancing guidelines. For the next year or more most businesses will likely experience some type of reduction in building occupancy, just look at Walmart. Many businesses will continue to offer telecommuting and conferencing instead of filling their buildings with employees. Sporting and entertainment will experience big changes if they hope to have any chance of surviving until a vaccine allows us to go back to close to historic norms. All of those issues mean fewer consumers at once and likely prices increases.

Those are what I mean by restructuring. Plus I would hope we've learned we need more Independence in key production to be repatriated but I'm not sure Americans are willing to pay the associated price increase. We'll see.

We can function but there is not a way to "open back up the world". As we enter summer, and hope to see a natural reduction in cases for a few months, the southern hemisphere countries will likely see increased spread. That will disrupt those economies even more. And then we are projected to experience a second wave stateside come autumn. The new normal, even if just interim, won't resemble the status of quo of years past. Successful businesses will have to find new ways to adapt, ie restructuring.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Current antibody surveys lead to estimates of 2-3% of the world having been infected this far. We are nowhere near the threshold of here immunity for a respiratory virus, in the US or world.

https://www.popsci.com/story/health/herd-immunity-covid-19-coronavirus/


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## goosefreak (Aug 20, 2009)

backcountry said:


> High Desert Elk said:
> 
> 
> > backcountry said:
> ...


Dang Backcountry, I admire your resilience!!!


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

I can definitely be stubborn 😁


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I was thinking about this thread as I filled up my truck with gas this morning. I got a quick laugh when I remembered a few weeks ago the posts on here telling everyone that gas was in short supply and to go fill up all your available tanks. 

Just thought I’d share my funny moment from 0530 this morning. 

Carry on.


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

Gas in salina today was 1.14, maverick, loves etc


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

backcountry said:


> Herd immunity definitely doesn't exist yet. Are accidentally misusing that phrase? Herd immunity comes about when a certain threshold of citizens has been infected or vaccinated. The most commonly accepted threshold for emerging diseases like Covid-19 is roughly 70%+ must have developed immunity through one of those methods. I don't know of a single study claiming 80% of Americans have already been infected.
> 
> Not a single reliable scientist is claiming herd immunity already exists. Covid-19 wouldn't continue to spread so consistently if it did. Reliable science doesn't back up the claim.
> 
> ...


I said when the numbers and data come in, you will find that herd immunity exists. Sit back and watch. Nowhere did I say the "experts" and reputable scientists claim it already did.

The *only* reason the economy wouldn't open up to its full capacity again is because of the unprecedented fear this virus has created relative to restaurants, movie theaters, and any other businesses that require a high onsite customer base to generate revenue.

Opening everything up at a reduced capacity will create an environment of economies of scale for both the merchant and consumer. Businesses are already losing money, especially if any kind of bank note exists on the business and making some money operating at whatever capacity below the minimum threshold for normal operation is a lot better than nothing.

For a disease that was supposed to usher in the zombie apocalypse, it seems to be falling significantly short. For those who can't think for themselves, I suppose the only thing that will get them through this is the rhetoric given by the "experts".

Responding to this post will only be effective to the ones who continue on reading the discourse you and I have going back and forth. It won't do me any good because I won't see it...

Cheers.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Sorry, you clearly don't understand herd immunity. There isn't any reliable scientific data supporting your claim and it doesn't follow basic biological logic to assume what you state. This is another post pushing junk science. 

We are seeing the chickens come home to roost for America's unique anti-intellectualism that has been going on the last decade or more. All the conspiracies and psuedoscience give it away. It's just sad that it's matured during a global pandemic. 

It's not just fear driving people away. It's the fact that the disease is new; we don't have immunity; we don't have a vaccine; we don't have a viable treatment; it has unknown long term impacts on survivors; it leads to an excruciating, lonely death when fatal; etc. That's not just fear but thoughtful analysis of facts that are driving thoughtful behavior.

Luckily most Americans are showing more compassion and actual knowledge about this disease than posts like yours display. Few things unite Americans anymore but more than 70% of people support current or even stricter measures. You are an extreme minority in your view and I am grateful for that fact. I take peace in knowing most people don't subscribe to such nonsense. 

I think you confuse actual scientific literacy with "not thinking for oneself". It's a cute phrase but actually listening to experts and researching the data leads most people to understanding how uniquely devastating this disease has been for the US and the world.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Shouldn’t you take this discussion to the thread about COVID-19?

You really don’t have to turn every thread into your drum to bang for your personal views on coronavirus and how to handle it. 

I’m waiting to see gas prices dip along the Wasatch Front. Most places still 2.10 or higher.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Vanilla said:


> Shouldn't you take this discussion to the thread about COVID-19?
> 
> You really don't have to turn every thread into your drum to bang for your personal views on coronavirus and how to handle it.
> 
> I'm waiting to see gas prices dip along the Wasatch Front. Most places still 2.10 or higher.


I'm not the one who turned it into a science thread of a different tone and I think you know it takes more than one to tango with these conflicts.

If you care to look you'll notice Elk inserted junk science claims about herd immunity into it. Before than it was just generic science references focused on the economic issues commonly discussed here (the thread was about ETF and futures contracts not price of gas at pump).



High Desert Elk said:


> As a society, we have become very, very frail to think we cannot function without a vaccine. The numbers and data will show herd immunity already exists, sit back and watch.


I think if you actually go back and read the entire series of comments again you'll notice how many other people are making comments solely about their "personal view" on Covid-19 not about prices at the pump. And it was happening long before I questioned CPA's odd "open back up the world" comment.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

It's an interesting time when gas in Anchorage is cheaper than along the Wasatch front. It's $1.75 near my house and has been for about 2 weeks. Typically we are $0.20-40 higher than Salt Lake and Utah counties


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

What is Alaska Crude trading at now? I haven't looked in a few days but even the futures down here rebounded in the days after the crash. 

Was interesting reading all the stories about novice investors jumping on ETFs from platforms like Robinhood and SoFi. Evidently many didn't realize what they were purchasing exactly.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

backcountry said:


> I'm not the one who turned it into a science thread of a different tone


It's always someone else that FORCED you to do what you did. I get it.



backcountry said:


> I think you know it takes more than one to tango with these conflicts.


Exactly. You are making the tango go fill steam ahead. Heaven forbid there is any measure of discretion or self control (or self accountability) in any of this.

Whatever. You're gaining lots of fans. Before too long there won't be anyone to see your posts anymore if you insist on carrying on the way you are.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

No one made me do anything. Never said that, never would. That's a massive red herring. I choose to counter junk science head on, unabashedly. I've made that clear multiple times. And if that means purveyors of bull elk ****e choose to ignore me than more power to them. 

I have no problem tangoing. Neither do you. It's one of our notable similarities (there are multiple). It's no shock we go head to head so often.

But going into a thread singling me out when others did exactly the same, as often and sooner is bogus. That history is clear public record here. Turning it into some petty claim that someone"forced" me to do so isn't an accurate assessment.

I could care less about fans. Never was a worry. My assumption has been most people ignore my posts on these threads. But I'll never know nor do I care. (Who goes on the internet to gain fans anyways, unless they are selling something?). 

So yes, I'll continue to tango when people post junk science or psuedoscience claims, like we already have herd immunity. No one forced them to post. No one forced me to counter it. No one forced you to engage in an equally tangential way.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

Alaska has very little in state refining capacity, so we typically export North Slope production to the West coast and then import refined fuels. That transportation cost is a large driver of our higher pump prices. 

Alaska North Slope crude traded at $11.55 on 4/23. This is no bueno.


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

Vanilla said:


> Before too long there won't be anyone to see your posts anymore if you insist on carrying on the way you are.


Is he still talking? :grin:


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Holy $#i7 ..... we're all gonna die!


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## hondodawg (Mar 13, 2013)

Coworker shared something me with today. 

I can’t post the photo.... but can say for Jet-A in LAX it’s .51 cents per gallon today!

This is contract bulk fuel. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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