# Winter 2022-23



## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

How's it shaping up elsewhere in Utah? Way too early to judge snowpack but the cold & snow are coming in waves down here. Will be interesting to see if warm back up in Cedar after this next storm. We normally have a mild spell between the snow around Halloween and then Thanksgiving; but this year seems to want to be colder and more precip than we've experienced in a while.

Not ready for snow again myself but it will be what it will be and our area and soils could use whatever we can get.


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## Finnegan (Sep 7, 2007)

I live at 8,000 ft (Summit county) where we've had 11" of snow so far. We could see some wicked weather this week (a month earlier than last year) and I'm not ready for it. But on the bright side, I still have a couple archery tags to fill and a few good storms will make a big difference on the extended hunt.

NWS doesn't know whether to scratch their watches or wind their butts this year with so many variables in play.

On the one hand, we absolutely must have at least an average snow pack this year or there's going to be some serious consequences next summer. On the other hand, we had a bumper crop of fawns last spring and I'd hate to lose them to a hard winter.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

I have high hopes, but the predictions don't sound very good. What I'm hearing from the news and weather people is another la nina year which means a similar winter to the last two which pretty much sucked. We had some really good storm opening weekend of the rifle deer hunt, but we need that to continue consistently over the next several months. Will it happen? Who knows? They are calling for storm today, tomorrow and the next day.

Edit: I just looked at the weather again and it looks like today is just supposed to be windy, tomorrow there is a 40% chance of frozen mix, then the next day is just clear and cold.


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

colorcountrygunner said:


> Edit: I just looked at the weather again and it looks like today is just supposed to be windy, tomorrow there is a 40% chance of frozen mix, then the next day is just clear and cold.


My app is saying 1" of snow Wed (80%), 2" snow on Thursday (77%), then another storm on Monday (7th).

This is already better than last year. We had 1 storm in October -- then I can't remember another storm the rest of the winter.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

PBH said:


> My app is saying 1" of snow Wed (80%), 2" snow on Thursday (77%), then another storm on Monday (7th).
> 
> This is already better than last year. We had 1 storm in October -- then I can't remember another storm the rest of the winter.


Beating last winter is a pretty low bar, but I will take it!


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

PBH said:


> My app is saying 1" of snow Wed (80%), 2" snow on Thursday (77%), then another storm on Monday (7th).
> 
> This is already better than last year. We had 1 storm in October -- then I can't remember another storm the rest of the winter.


There back to back storms are promising. Hopefully the wind dies down tomorrow and doesn't blow all the moisture to Kansas like happened last year. But this November is looking to be one of the coldest and snowiest we've had in a while. I've gotten use to mild Novembers here and getting in some last hoorahs but I'll figure out something else if this sticks around.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

I'd really like to see a winter that I remember as a teen kid. Don't know the year, but it snowed something like 18" in the valley overnight. (70's) Back to back storms are the ticket! If we could get storms to put down 1-2' of snow three times a week in the mountains, and NOT warm up, we'd be on the way to a better water year.

Did it always snow more when we were kids, or were we just smaller and it seemed to be deep snow?


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Having some light, wispy stuff falling down in the oquirrhs right now.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Updated forecast for Cedar is between 4-9" of snow from 5ish tonight to tomorrow afternoon. I'm not sure I prepped our backyard enough 😲. 

My wife might be unhappy if I don't get this gazebo built. I'll have to fall back on getting Covid from our trip to CA (2 times in 3 months, this new issue with immune escape is no joke). 

Granted, that project is better than the poor folks trying to get their roof on today (few homes around town).

My friends muzzie bull and cow hunts are going to be interesting this year.


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## pollo70 (Aug 15, 2016)

It's coming down in weber county big flakes ! Feels like winter


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

I'm supposed to go to the Utes game Saturday with my daughter -- but the weather for Saturday in SLC looks terrible. Ugh.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

It's coming down heavy in Cedar. Stalled a bit today but it's catching up now. This definitely a healthy early season storm.

And, I'm really not ready for winter yet.


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

Ready or not, here it comes! Looks like another round Mon - Wed next week.

(I'm loving the pellet burner so far!!)


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

PBH said:


> Ready or not, here it comes! Looks like another round Mon - Wed next week.
> 
> (I'm loving the pellet burner so far!!)


How much did you all get down there from this last storm?


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

not much sitting on the ground -- a couple inches. But most of it was really wet, and just melting. Snotel is showing up at Midway that we started(11/2) at 7", up to 15", then to 20", then fell back to 17" (11/4) on the ground. So ~5 - 13" inches accummulation on the mountain.


This paints a nice picture:


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

I just measured in my yard here in town. 
Got 6" on both the north and west face sides. 
Ended up at 5" on the east and south face sides. 
Had good moisture in it as well. 

I'm afraid that this ends the cabin season this year. 😢 
I've always said that Nov 4th is the average last access, pretty much nailed it this year.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

2full said:


> I just measured in my yard here in town.
> Got 6" on both the north and west face sides.
> Ended up at 5" on the east and south face sides.
> Had good moisture in it as well.
> ...


These last few warm autumns (and winters) spoiled me. Glad to see the moisture but was a shock to the system not have more time to play & get stuff done.

At this point I'm hoping the temperatures stay low and the lakes freeze over a few weeks earlier than last year.

Plus, if it stays cold than the snow at middle to high elevation should insulate everything enough to keep more moisture in the soil. Anything to help our groundwater and springs at this point is good news.

*We seem to have ~ 4" at my place. Cedar has so many little microclimates.


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## pollo70 (Aug 15, 2016)

Jack Frost.. is in town.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Just read on FB that Brian Head has it's earliest opening this year with 15" of snow along with more terrine than expected. 

If you have FB you can look at the link, but about all it says is the above with a picture. 



https://scontent-den4-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/313975449_488875589938230_3182182082695229451_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p526x296&_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Nzr3Pjj3aB4AX8JJaih&_nc_ht=scontent-den4-1.xx&oh=00_AfDLV16yq5D56gEe5ptgj6gMvq91siHvhorR6f8EiMR4fQ&oe=636C8B8C


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Yeah, they got dumped on and it's been cold enough they can make snow. Hopefully it stays cold enough to maintain the base. They have a history of trying to open early and running into issues. 

I've always been jealous of those who have rock skis to bomb down runs like that with such a thin base. My quiver is limited and no way I'm dropping lines like that in November.


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## APD (Nov 16, 2008)

backcountry said:


> I've always been jealous of those who have rock skis to bomb down runs like that with such a thin base. My quiver is limited and no way I'm dropping lines like that in November.


All skis are rock skis. Some just hit more rocks than others.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

PBH said:


> I'm supposed to go to the Utes game Saturday with my daughter -- but the weather for Saturday in SLC looks terrible. Ugh.


We were there. It was a wet, cold, wonderful night. Did you make it to cheer on your Wildcats?

On another note, I wouldn’t pay too much attention to snowpack totals right now. It’s so early in the season that one storm can sway it too much. Remember where we were last year in December, and then how we finished? I will enjoy EVERY storm we get this year, because every single drop of water is a blessing and desperately needed.

This link is a bit depressing to see how big of a winter we’d need to return to “normal” water levels. But hopefully we can at least make some progress towards that.









Snowstorms have been robust, but Utah is still sitting at average


If you think it has been snowy and rainy, you are right. A series of storms have been generous to Utah, but what happens in the months to come is a question mark.




www.ksl.com


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

Vanilla said:


> Did you make it to cheer on your Wildcats?


didn't make it -- and I wasn't cheering for the wildcats.. . 

My daughter was there, but I didn't make it. Maybe this week? I'm actually looking forward to going to some events inside the Huntsman Center, where it's warm. Maybe I'm getting old?


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

PBH said:


> didn't make it -- and I wasn't cheering for the wildcats.. .
> 
> My daughter was there, but I didn't make it. Maybe this week? I'm actually looking forward to going to some events inside the Huntsman Center, where it's warm. Maybe I'm getting old?


I just figured you cheered for whatever team was playing Utah?


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

nope. Always been a Ute fan. Now my daughter is attending school there, so I'm a vested fan.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Some fans are more "fan" than others, apparently...


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

Make no mistake: I like being a spectator when the weather is good. 

kind of a "love / hate" relationship. My beef is more with the money side of college football. While the money gained from bolting the MWC and joining the PAC12 has certainly been a big boost -- I still would have liked to see what would have happened to college football had Utah (TCU, BYU, Boise, etc...) (Urban Meyer) stayed in the MWC.

Oh well. We'll just keep watching with today's format of two conferences that matter, and everyone else is just playing for fun. That's OK too.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I'd like a San Juan elk tag every year too! But alas, that's just not reality. I guess we can all dream, right? 

Just like we can dream about an above normal winter.


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## Gordon (Sep 11, 2007)

Vanilla said:


> We were there. It was a wet, cold, wonderful night. Did you make it to cheer on your Wildcats?
> 
> *On another note, I wouldn’t pay too much attention to snowpack totals right now*. It’s so early in the season that one storm can sway it too much. Remember where we were last year in December, and then how we finished? I will enjoy EVERY storm we get this year, because every single drop of water is a blessing and desperately needed.
> 
> ...


^^This.
Get back to me with snowpack numbers in Feb.


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

I'm sure we'll still be tracking in February. The point of posting numbers at this point was simply because questions were asked: "how much snow from that storm?"

Regardless -- we are ahead of where we were last year at this same time. Some would say that last year was as bad as it gets -- to which I say, that's right. So being ahead of last year is a good thing!

More storms on the way this week. That's something we didn't say in November of 2021.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

I to welcome every storm that rolls through the state. I hope there are storms one behind the other heading our way making it look a morning commute on Highway 880 in San Jose! (Never do that again) If we could get at least 2 storms a week like the last few, I think the current drought % would be cut in half come March.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Looks promising...









Mountains in southwest Utah could see up to 2 feet of snow this week, weather service says


ST. GEORGE — Southwest mountains could be in store for as much as 2 feet of snow this week, according to a winter weather watch issued by the National Weather Service. The winter storm watch is in effect from 5 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 8, through 5 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 10, for Wasatch Plateau/Book...




www.stgeorgeutah.com


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Multiple places forecasted to see 2-3 feet of snow in this storm. 

With temps in the valleys not forecasted to be above the low 40s for highs each day for the next 10 days, that is going to keep that snow received rather than it just melting off. 

I have no idea what any of this means, but I know I want water and I know I don't want all the deer to die in a terrible winter, so I say Mother Nature needs to perfectly thread the needle for us the next 3-5 years on good water years without killing all the deer. Shouldn't be too much to ask!


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> I have no idea what any of this means, but I know I want water and I know I don't want all the deer to die in a terrible winter, so I say Mother Nature needs to perfectly thread the needle for us the next 3-5 years on good water years without killing all the deer. Shouldn't be too much to ask!


It really shouldn't be too much to ask though. We all yearn for the days when we had adequate snowfall in the winter and good deer herds and we had those things simultaneously for many years.


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

Fish like water.


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

All I know is seemingly every time I've had a day off, and hopes to go fishing, the weather has been bad. This morning was no exception. 😞 Should have stayed into duck hunting. 

I could probably end this drought by taking an extended sabbatical from work. Should I set up a "go fund me" page?


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

colorcountrygunner said:


> It really shouldn't be too much to ask though. We all yearn for the days when we had adequate snowfall in the winter and good deer herds and we had those things simultaneously for many years.


Sadly those days are mostly in the past.
Much less wintering ground for our poor Deer now if we do get those big snowfall totals.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

MrShane said:


> Sadly those days are mostly in the past.
> Much less wintering ground for our poor Deer now if we do get those big snowfall totals.


That and there are a lot of other things working against the deer herd now. I think a sizeable chunk of our deer herd ends up splattered on the highways every year from the nonstop traffic we have.


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

True.
The highways and the wintering ground over-development is out of our hands.
The one variable we control is the damage by predators.
It is time Utah woke up and both Bears and Cougars were added to the bounty system alongside Coyotes.
Year round season and $50 bounty for any of the three species.
When Utah does this I will start adding $100yr to the Coyote control program option offered at application time.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

MrShane said:


> Sadly those days are mostly in the past.
> Much less wintering ground for our poor Deer now if we do get those big snowfall totals.


I'll bring this argument up again, where are you talking about? The Wasatch Front only? How about the deer and elk in the rural part of Utah? Their wintering grounds are pretty much the same as they were back in the 60's but there are still problems with deer numbers.


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

I am talking about every part of Utah that has had development take place in any wintering ground.
And I agree not as much has changed in rural Utah as far as development goes.
What has changed is the amount of four legged predators chasing them, those numbers have rose.
The number of two legged predators has been dropped drastically and our poor Muleys still continue a downward trend.
Time to drastically drop the number of four legged predators killing them off.
What we are currently seeing now is an unhealthy balance.


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

MrShane said:


> I am talking about every part of Utah that has had development take place in any wintering ground.
> 
> What has changed is the amount of four legged predators chasing them, those numbers have rose.


Development + predation. 2 of the primary reasons that we currently have so many collar studies happening in Utah. The studies should help paint a clear picture of where the animals are going, and what their cause of deaths are.

Without this information, it's all just hypothetical. We _want_ to blame predators. We _want _to blame encroachment on wintering grounds. But maybe the truth lies somewhere else?

What doe the numbers say?


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## Daisy (Jan 4, 2010)

PBH said:


> Development + predation. 2 of the primary reasons that we currently have so many collar studies happening in Utah. The studies should help paint a clear picture of where the animals are going, and what their cause of deaths are.
> 
> Without this information, it's all just hypothetical. We _want_ to blame predators. We _want _to blame encroachment on wintering grounds. But maybe the truth lies somewhere else?
> 
> What doe the numbers say?


clever.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

PBH said:


> Without this information, it's all just hypothetical. We _want_ to blame predators. We _want _to blame encroachment on wintering grounds. But maybe the truth lies somewhere else?
> 
> What doe the numbers say?


Didn't we already get this data from the Book Cliffs? I seem to remember a rather low number of fawns surviving and a rather high percentage of that due to 4-legged predators. I don't think it is hypothetical in that area at this point, if my memory is serving me correctly. 

And now switching gears: To say that development hasn't changed in rural Utah since the 60s is a bit far fetched. (That's putting it mildly...) "Development" that impacts wintering grounds is not just houses. The roads around the state, and accompanying traffic on them, look NOTHING like they did in the 60s, even in rural Utah. You don't think I-15 expansion and increased traffic even through rural parts of the state has impacted wintering grounds?


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

I was about to chime in on the deer herd again, but then I thought maybe this discussion needs its own thread. We have completely highjacked this winter 2022-2023 with a topic that loosely ties in. Back to that topic...winter weather advisory starting in about 3 hours and going until sometime in Thursday.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

Anybody have a good reason it needs to snow below say 5500'. I'm good with rain in the valleys and it wouldn't hurt the deer either.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

middlefork said:


> Anybody have a good reason it needs to snow below say 5500'. I'm good with rain in the valleys and it wouldn't hurt the deer either.


I have a snowblower and I need to use it.


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

PBH said:


> Development + predation. 2 of the primary reasons that we currently have so many collar studies happening in Utah. The studies should help paint a clear picture of where the animals are going, and what their cause of deaths are.
> 
> Without this information, it's all just hypothetical. We _want_ to blame predators. We _want _to blame encroachment on wintering grounds. But maybe the truth lies somewhere else?
> 
> What doe the numbers say?


I love your collar studies and the results are already putting the dots on paper.
Now can the Sportsman of Utah rely on the State to connect the dots and start taking out more predators?


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

middlefork said:


> Anybody have a good reason it needs to snow below say 5500'. I'm good with rain in the valleys and it wouldn't hurt the deer either.


I like to build one snowman per year.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

taxidermist said:


> I have a snowblower and I need to use it.


I got rid of the snowblower and put a blade on my atv. 

It's a lot less exercise that way.

Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

Critter said:


> I got rid of the snowblower and put a blade on my atv.
> 
> It's a lot less exercise that way.
> 
> Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk


I have both. 
If it's real deep I get the blade out. 
I just can't shovel anything more than 3 or 4 inches anymore.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

taxidermist said:


> I have a snowblower and I need to use it.


I have one too. But I have no separation anxiety. LOL


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

MrShane said:


> I love your collar studies and the results are already putting the dots on paper.
> Now can the Sportsman of Utah rely on the State to connect the dots and start taking out more predators?


I'll be taking a few out in a few weeks time when I start laying close to 80 #2 and #3 Bridger traps in the ground, along with a couple hundred snares. Snares wont go out until the Devil bird hunt is over. Don't want any bird dogs hurt.


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

taxidermist said:


> I'll be taking a few out in a few weeks time when I start laying close to 80 #2 and #3 Bridger traps in the ground, along with a couple hundred snares. Snares wont go out until the Devil bird hunt is over. Don't want any bird dogs hurt.


Kill’em all Taxi.
I wish you had big enough snares for Cougar and Bears!
You are saving our Deer herds one predator at a time!


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

This storm tonight in Cedar is epic. Rain so far alongside ~ 50 mph gusts. 

Will be interesting to see what morning brings. A layer of snow on top of this moist soil would be brilliant. Hopefully the wind doesn't change the precip totals too much. 

Can't wait for this series to be over so we can get a full night's sleep. The wind has been grating.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

MrShane said:


> Kill’em all Taxi.
> I wish you had big enough snares for Cougar and Bears!
> You are saving our Deer herds one predator at a time!


I make my snares, and I could make a snare big enough to catch an elephant if needed. 

Years back, a couple lions found my #3 footholds. They were small, maybe two year olds (thank heaven) it was a circus releasing them alive.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

backcountry said:


> This storm tonight in Cedar is epic. Rain so far alongside ~ 50 mph gusts.
> 
> Will be interesting to see what morning brings. A layer of snow on top of this moist soil would be brilliant. Hopefully the wind doesn't change the precip totals too much.
> 
> Can't wait for this series to be over so we can get a full night's sleep. The wind has been grating.


Just looked at the rain totals near 7200 S and 700 W. The last 6 hrs is 0.36" 24 hr. 1.10" 7 day 1.58 and the 30 day is 2.23" Great storms I think!


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

ugh. I laid in bed listening to that wind all night -- that was brutal.

The snow started to fly this morning, but it's just really wet little flakes that melt the second they hit anything. Looking at Three Peaks (from the west side, looking east), I'd say the snow level got down to about 5500 feet. I can't see Cedar.

These south storms are always better for moisture.


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

taxidermist said:


> I make my snares, and I could make a snare big enough to catch an elephant if needed.
> 
> Years back, a couple lions found my #3 footholds. They were small, maybe two year olds (thank heaven) it was a circus releasing them alive.


A .22 would sure make releasing those fawn killers a lot easier.


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

taxidermist said:


> I make my snares, and I could make a snare big enough to catch an elephant if needed.
> 
> Years back, a couple lions found my #3 footholds. They were small, maybe two year olds (thank heaven) it was a circus releasing them alive.


Alive ?? 
🤔


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

2full said:


> Alive ??
> 🤔


Yup, it’s not fun and can get real western in a hurry! The first catch I met a CO and we released it. The second cat, I was as a pro and had my nephew with me so it wasn’t to bad.


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

We had paws in our traps a couple of times. But no cats. 
The one had trashed the cedar tree the trap was attached to. 
It was kind of humbling to see the fury and power those things have. 

I did have one buddy that walked up on a young cat in his trap. 
He did kill it. It was 25+ years ago......so the statute has expired.


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## bowgy (Oct 10, 2007)

The wind was bad last knight, some of the trees lining the driveway are at the end of their life, there was one that died and was leaning towards the driveway, I told my wife several times this year I needed to cut it down, well the wind did it for me and I had to cut up a 30 foot tree to clear the driveway first thing this morning.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

The sad thing about a tree that is blown down is the root ball that comes up with it, dead or not. 

My neighbor lost a tree due to the wind and even after we did away with the tree there was still a huge hole that needed to be filled.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

The wind seems to have done a number on the snow totals. Some areas got 8" while others look like it blew everything off. East side of the Markagunt looks like it might be pretty wind hammered if stations are reporting accurately.

I heard a handful of chainsaws this morning dealing with similar downed trees in Cedar. Biggest gust at the airport looks to have been 52 mph early this morning but I'd wager folks near canyons/etc experienced some bigger ones.


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## bowgy (Oct 10, 2007)

Critter said:


> The sad thing about a tree that is blown down is the root ball that comes up with it, dead or not.
> 
> My neighbor lost a tree due to the wind and even after we did away with the tree there was still a huge hole that needed to be filled.


Luckily it broke off leaving a 2 foot stump, but the track loader is parked near by so it won't take much to take out the stump and level the ground, been replacing the dead ones with fruit trees, if they produce great, if not I still have a tree there. So far I have 2 cherry and 2 peach trees replacing some old dead ones.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Had a couple storms last week on the Wasatch Front and the best one yet today. At least the best one down in Utah County. My coworkers say it didn't storm as good up in Salt Lake County.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

As of 8pm on 12/13…things are looking really good. That said, we were looking really good in December of last year too, and we know how that ended up.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Fingers crossed! I have read articles that say that what we are experiencing in the west isn't a run of the mill drought, but a much more severe climatic event known as aridification. If this is really the case, the future is gonna get ugly.









‘Megadrought’ and ‘Aridification’ — Understanding the New Language of a Warming World • The Revelator


New research reveals a creeping, permanent dryness expanding across the United States. It’s much more than “drought,” and researchers hope more accurate descriptions will spur critical action.




therevelator.org


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

Vanilla said:


> As of 8pm on 12/13…things are looking really good. That said, we were looking really good in December of last year too, and we know how that ended up.


looking back at the 2021-22 snowpack thread, we were looking "ok" in December last year. SW Utah was above average, but most of the rest of the state was already below.

There is no question that our winter this year has been a "real" winter......so far. November was colder, and December is colder than last year, and our snowpack is already higher statewide. 

Hopefully this river of moisture will keep flowing across the state.


December 5, 2021 -- note the mountains in the background:










December 12, 2022:


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

colorcountrygunner said:


> Fingers crossed! I have read articles that say that what we are experiencing in the west isn't a run of the mill drought, but a much more severe climatic event known as aridification. If this is really the case, the future is gonna get ugly.


We built all these reservoirs across the West that are designed to collect water based on snowfall and spring runoff -- and yet we get the majority of our annual precipitation in July and August in very quick and short "bursts". We no longer have a spring "green up", but rather we get green-ups in August. Sagebrush habitat has been changing - some even say "crashing" - all across the west for years. Things are changing.....


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

PBH, I stand corrected! Check Dec 14 from last year compared to December 13 this year below:


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

PBH said:


> We built all these reservoirs across the West that are designed to collect water based on snowfall and spring runoff --



I was actually thinking about this last night. Let’s assume these percentages hold true through April, which would mean we have a pretty epic winter. What would that do for the GSL and our reservoirs?

What would Lake Powell look like in August if these percentages held throughout the winter? What would the GSL look like next October if these percentages held?

We need a hydrologist to chime in here!


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

I'm no hydrologist -- and this is just a my WAG opinion: Lake Powell would certainly benefit, but it would not "fix" it. Heck, "fix" isn't even the right word. It wouldn't make things "normal" for what we all want Lake Powell to be. It's going to be a long time before we see the lake rise significantly. The good thing about Lake Powell is that it is still a huge reservoir!

I have no comment at all about the GSL.

But, if these numbers do hold through April, then what I think we can expect is to see many of smaller reservoirs fill: Minersville, Otter Creek, Panguitch, Yuba?, Deer Creek, Jordanelle, etc.


I'm going to keep drinking my coffee naked on the back porch each morning. It seems to be helping so far -- why mess up a good thing?!

(I will need to stop sitting on the metal chairs when it's in the single digits. 😕 )


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## bowgy (Oct 10, 2007)

PBH said:


> I'm going to keep drinking my coffee naked on the back porch each morning. It seems to be helping so far -- why mess up a good thing?!
> 
> (I will need to stop sitting on the metal chairs when it's in the single digits. 😕 )


I was wondering why all the birds were circling out in the valley.


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

I really expected the Duchesne River area to be higher than 125% - we have been getting pounded with snow!


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Interesting that after two straight days of snow we are at lower percentages than we were just two days ago. It would be awesome if we could keep these percentages.


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

the 10 day forecast says those averages are going down....


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## BGD (Mar 23, 2018)

This last round of storms was drier, fluffy snow with lower than average water content so while it produced lots of inches of the white stuff, it didn’t necessarily carry the same punch as far as the wet stuff was concerned. I certainly won’t look a gift horse in the mouth but that may explain why some snow pack numbers didn’t jump like we may have expected.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

There is a reason it is called "the greatest snow on earth" ⛷🏂


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Just was reading an article about Lake Powell and I think it's settling in for me that it's unlikely to be in "existence" as we currently know it within 20 years. I think motorized recreation on it could be gone by the end of this decade. Unless we see year after year after moisture that completely upends this mega drought I just don't see a future for that reservoir.

Most of my life that would have brought me joy. And ultimately knowing that landscape could "heal" still has some appeal. But the damage it's done is done and losing it has immense effects that are all negative as well. We are in for so much pain water wise and it's the canary in the coal mine. 

Grateful for all of this moisture and many regional fisheries could rebound nicely. But the Colorado River is going to become a monument to our hubris.


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

How any fisherman, which I thought you were (?), could wish Lake Powell away is absolutely beyond my comprehension.
Lake Powell is a crown jewel and one of the most spectacular places on this earth.
I pray my grandsons will be able to admire it’s awesomeness alongside me.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Catherder better start trimming a few pounds, so he can fit into his mad max outfit.


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

colorcountrygunner said:


> Catherder better start trimming a few pounds, so he can fit into his mad max outfit.


Oh sure, like that will happen with all the caloric holiday cheer sitting around.  Maybe you can join me and set a (unreachable) goal to be apocalypse ready by June. 


From what I've seen and read, while there is great concern about the water situation in Powell and Mead, their demise is not a foregone conclusion even if some in the enviro crowd wish it to be. The megadrought could still attenuate. 

One thing is sure though. Politicians and planning commissioners should NOT bank on pulling extra water allocations from there in scheming water supplies for their next wave of hoped for growth.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Catherder- bingo! I think I read the same article as backcountry, and while the situation is bad and the possibility of Lake Powell becoming a figment of our memories and imaginations is there, you have to look at what groups are saying it’s a foregone conclusion. They might have a little bias involved and may not be painting the whole picture of possibilities.

I’ll be praying for snow!


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Catherder said:


> Oh sure, like that will happen with all the caloric holiday cheer sitting around.  Maybe you can join me and set a (unreachable) goal to be apocalypse ready by June.


I already am apocalypse ready. A big part of my apocalyptic food storage strategy is conveniently wearing surplus calories on my body. I've got enough to last me a good long while. 😎


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## PBH (Nov 7, 2007)

backcountry said:


> I think motorized recreation on it could be gone by the end of this decade.



There has never been a time in Lake Powell's history, including the very first day it began to fill, that motorized boats were NOT on the lake.

I do not believe that we'll see a day that motorized boats are not using Lake Powell / Colorado River. heck, motorized boats are currently utilizing the river below the dam.


Even at Powell's current low level, it is still a huge lake that provides miles and miles and miles of opportunity.

Things have changed. Things will continue to change. We will adapt to those changes.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glen_Canyon_Dam



[10] It became "a catalyst for the modern environmental movement"

No bias at all LOL


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

PBH said:


> There has never been a time in Lake Powell's history, including the very first day it began to fill, that motorized boats were NOT on the lake.
> 
> I do not believe that we'll see a day that motorized boats are not using Lake Powell / Colorado River. heck, motorized boats are currently utilizing the river below the dam.
> 
> ...


I know individuals will find a way and there is a threshold below which the vast majority of motorized traffic will come to an end. And it's already started. The NPS will not continue to just dump money on extending these failing ramps, just look at Mead. 

And for the first time I think I can imagine the reservoir being "drained" in a functional way. What that looks like I still can't visualize though.

*My biggest question is how this is all going to affect CO River through the Grand Canyon.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

MrShane said:


> How any fisherman, which I thought you were (?), could wish Lake Powell away is absolutely beyond my comprehension.
> Lake Powell is a crown jewel and one of the most spectacular places on this earth.
> I pray my grandsons will be able to admire it’s awesomeness alongside me.


It absolutely destroyed a stunning and unique landscape. That's the part I still mourn. Glenn Canyon existed before Powell and was filled with breath taking places as well as unknown amounts of archeology; we literally don't have an inventory of how many sites were lost as it was approved before a "full" survey had been done.

If it wasn't clear, I don't celebrate the loss of Powell. The damage it did is done and the place will never truly "recover", as the silt alone won't ever be dealt with in 100 years. I would prefer we have enough water to maintain it at this point, but the likelihood of that seems slim to none. Powell is not and never was the priority for the CO River infrastructure. It will most likely be used to triage other areas. 

I have no clue what to think of the fishery at this point nor do I know how it will be managed. But you can guarantee it being drastically altered is already in talks given the bass and mussel issues it's causing downstream. That's going to become a bigger problem as the dam can't maintain flows, ie literally within tens of feet. 

Powell is on life support and the prognosis is not good.

* I love fishing and I would have enjoyed fishing a free flowing river for natives as much or more than stripers. But that alternative reality doesn't exist. But I definitely still think about what it would have been like to go on river floats through Glenn Canyon. There is nothing else like that place; I'm grateful for the few B&W photos we have of the region.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Vanilla said:


> Catherder- bingo! I think I read the same article as backcountry, and while the situation is bad and the possibility of Lake Powell becoming a figment of our memories and imaginations is there, you have to look at what groups are saying it’s a foregone conclusion. They might have a little bias involved and may not be painting the whole picture of possibilities.
> 
> I’ll be praying for snow!


My conclusion is actually very similar to what both of you said. It's why I mentioned "as we know it". 

That said, the feds are intervening in a way we've never seen in our lifetimes. And their priority is the integrity of the entire system. Powell is a tea cup in the middle of the system and that context really matters.

Even Floyd Dominy, near the end of his life, explained an option to drastically reduce Powell. I would wager the feds are considering a similar scheme as the elevation drops closer to the penstocks. They only have a few years to deal with such alternatives (as actually implementing any changes will take years) with "ideal" conditions before options compress any further.

I don't think we'll ever see a fully "drained" Powell in my lifetime but I don't see a probable path to keeping it in it's current state. That's not a doomsday scenario though. That's a middle ground, very realistic one. A doomsday scenario is we don't truly address the situation now and the dam becomes unusable because of selfish, short sighted choices. The lack of response from the states the last 2 years (despite legal mandates) is a worrying sign that's not a zero probability outcome. Getting people to work together and aggressively so isn't proving to be a strength of our nation right now.

*Per bias, it's constantly there. And the article wasn't immune or even all that interesting in its own. I just ran across our copy of the "We Three" journey book and it really hit how Glen Canyon isn't the same and never will be & how Lake Powell is experiencing a similar fate. What it will become the rest of my life remains uncertain but it's hard to drive by that place now and not see it's a massive testimony to our hubris, from flows being contracted on bad data/assumptions to the actual assumptions built into the dam itself. Even the drain it crowd have been seeing how foolish that ideology turned out to be.


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

I’m not worried about covering the Indians garbage and vandalism.
If you and I were to go in the mountains now and scratch pictures in the rocks and not practice ‘Leave No Trace’ we would be assessed a fine.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

That's a bit reductive. The archeology down there that we did rush to inventory was amazing and the desert environment had preserved it for 800 plus years. We lost untold amounts of history when we flooded that place. I don't know if you've ever explored Cedar Mesa much but the buildings were similar to it. Seeing Kivas that have remained in tact for that long is a unique experience unto itself, especially when it takes days of exploring to map a route to find them. Not to mention the turkey feather capes, cradle boards, pottery and other cultural artifacts that were destroyed by the flooding. 

Plus the landmarks were epic. Cathedral in the Desert and many other locales were absolutely stunning. 

We can be both supportive of a place and recognize it's creation destroyed one of the more unique river canyons in the world.


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## fobit (Mar 1, 2017)

Those of us who remember when president Kennedy was shot know that every drying trend comes to an end. We will see full Reservoirs and flooded streets soon


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

fobit said:


> Those of us who remember when president Kennedy was shot know that every drying trend comes to an end. We will see full Reservoirs and flooded streets soon


I wouldn't mind it if you were right but a human lifespan is downright puny compared to events that happen on the earth's timeline.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Here are the predicted snow totals for Friday and Saturdays storm. 

Anyone taking bets?


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Wow! Huge if true. We had a really long, wet, soaking rainstorm a couple days after Christmas and a little bit of snow each night after that. I would say the late fall/early winter beginning until now has been satisfactory. If we get that much snow this coming weekend we are really in good shape!


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I always tend to expect the “under” on these forecasted storms.

But Alta doesn’t have to get 56 inches Friday and Saturday for it to be an awesome storm! And I think it will be an awesome storm.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

It's more about SWE than inches but the forecast for moisture is impressive. 2.75" - 5.25" The temperature looks to be rather warm so high snow levels for the most part.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Here's what the weather bug app shows for the hourly forecast from 1pm today until the following Monday on January 2nd:





























one


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Been a good wet few days down here. Looks like our normal warm period the first week of January will not happen this year.

Per trends, folks should look up the forecasts for Powell and Mead. Not great for most probable outcomes even with moisture forecasted this year. And the minimal forecast is frightening. The water needed to make a dent in those reservoir deficits is just mind boggling.


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## MrShane (Jul 21, 2019)

If these storms add even a single gallon to Powell it is a great start.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

I'll go back to the drought that Utah was in back in the 70's and early 80's. They were saying that it would take 30 years to get back to normal reservoir levels. Then came the winter of 82=83.

But even with a winter and runoff like that year it will take a while for Powell and Mead to get back to where the bath tub ring is gone.


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## 3arabians (Dec 9, 2014)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

You can't count on or count our Black Swan events like the 82/83 season. You just deal with them when they happen. (And I'm not sure we would even want one again given how much it stressed everything man made for months).

But we do know we are in uncharted territory for these dams and reservoirs. We do have 40 more years of data since then and it's not promising. We also have millions of more people dependent on our scarce water in the upper basin states which affects just about every aspect of the equation.

Science currently can't and never likely will be able to project these types of future scenarios. And, it's the best tool we have. Sadly the information we have and the projections we are seeing aren't friendly to the lifestyles we've grown use to in the region. That's true from recreation in the Glen Canyon area (including the loss of sand beaches in the Grand Canyon) to water policy in our states. 

I think we are all begging for every inch of moisture these storms will provide in the years to come. And it's unlikely to be enough or follow the historical patterns others are mentioning.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Per projections, here is one synopsis. This is the data BoR and states will use to define water policy. And that's before we take into account the currently unknown and unprecedented action the federal government is likely to take to preserve the integrity of the entire CO River system in the coming months and years.






Glen Canyon Dam | Water Operations | UC Region | Bureau of Reclamation


Bureau of Reclamation - Managing water and power in the West




www.usbr.gov




.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

Lake Powell at full capacity stores 25,166,000 acre feet of water. It currently stands at roughly 553,316 acre feet just 22% of capacity. It reached full pool for the first time in 1980 and the decline started roughly 1985. It will certainly take some wetter years for quite awhile to bring it back to full pool.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

middlefork said:


> Lake Powell at full capacity stores 25,166,000 acre feet of water. It currently stands at roughly 553,316 acre feet just 22% of capacity. It reached full pool for the first time in 1980 and the decline started roughly 1985. It will certainly take some wetter years for quite awhile to bring it back to full pool.


Have you or anyone else seen estimates on the estimated full pool capacity given the amount of sediment load the last 40+ years? It's often mentioned but I don't think I've seen a figure yet.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

Deltas of sediment are pushing into Glen Canyon as Lake Powell disappears


A slug of sediment is moving toward Powell and could disrupt the lake.




www.sltrib.com





"The paper found that Lake Powell lost 6.8% of its storage capacity between 1963 and 2018 due to the sediment that had been deposited in the reservoir bed, but the vast majority of the sediment was trapped in the far upstream reaches of the reservoir."


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Not scientific at all but here is a snow marker up at Farview Lakes homeowners


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## bowgy (Oct 10, 2007)

Went up to the ranch yesterday to check it out, looks better than last year but could still use a couple of feet more, but that would delay the start of the cabin construction.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I'm loving the trax on the enclosed side by side. Bowgy, can we become friends? Family?


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## bowgy (Oct 10, 2007)

Vanilla said:


> I'm loving the trax on the enclosed side by side. Bowgy, can we become friends? Family?


Sure, johnnycake won't adopt me so I need some family.

I bought it for my wife and she loves it, I almost fell over when she said she was too hot and to turn off the heater.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Interesting article on KSL today comparing snowpack up to this point over the years. Definitely lots of moisture to be excited about. Fingers crossed we see at least a slow addition until the end of March or continued dumps like we just saw. Heck, let's hope that spring temperatures are mild and the snowpack lingers into the summer. I'll take refilling the reservoirs alongside a delayed start to the fire season.

Jealous of everyone who has a resort pass this year. I think I need the clean up my outdated telemark setup and take my daughter up the hill one day (if we can ever get out of this blasted toddler illness cycle).









How does Utah's current snowpack compare with previous New Year's Day totals?


An impressive final few days of 2022 and a nice start to 2023 greatly boosted the statewide Utah snowpack. Here's how it stacks up with previous years.




www.ksl.com


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

What a difference 4 days makes. And more to come this weekend.

8pm on 12/30 vs 8pm on 1/3


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