# How does the antlerless draw work?



## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

I'm trying to figure out what antlerless elk tags to apply for. As I'm looking at the numbers, I'm not sure what's going on ....

For example, consider the two late Nov/early Dec hunts below. First number is the total permit number of 2014 RAC packet, 2nd number are 2013 total permits from hunt tables (http://wildlife.utah.gov/maps/public/details_species.php?feature_item=4), 3rd and 4th number are total quotas from 2013 and 2012 odds reports (http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2013/13_antlerless_report.pdf, and http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/12_antlerless_report.pdf).

4088 Plateau/Fishlake-East 250; 250; 20; 140. 
4089 Plateau/Fishlake-West 150; 150, 100; 20.

With these fluctuations, odds jump around quite a bit, from as low (about) 30% to 100%. Between the two hunts -- with similar dates and in the same unit -- the "total quota" in the odds report reverses from 2012 to 2013. Moreover, though, in both cases the total quota is below the numbers in the hunt tables/RAC packet.

What am I missing? Any hints are much appreciated.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

Btw: This http://utahwildlife.net/forum/12-big-game/20936-antlerless-elk-draw-odds.html
and this http://utahwildlife.net/forum/12-big-game/36206-antlerless-odds-report.html thread both touch on the same issue ... derekp suggests this might be because only first choice applications are reported. However, neither thread provides any clear answer.


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## hatch000 (Aug 4, 2011)

I can't give any advise or thoughts on your dilemma involving the fishlake unit. That unit has not been on my radar. I haven't really been interested in that unit. Sorry. 
But what I have done over the last few years is I've looked at all the units or tags the state has offered that is in the areas that I'm willing to drive to and spend time in. (units fairly close to home). This also includes CWMU units. The addendum gives different numbers per unit on different years so you have to pull up the guidebook for each year and write down all the unit names and numbers that you're interested in from the last few years. Because of the different hunt numbers, it can be time consuming. Then I look at harvest success rates, tag numbers, and the odds of drawing those tags for each year. I see how they correlate with each other. Sometimes the boundaries change. Sometimes they won't offer that specific hunt anymore. For CWMU units I'm interested in I look on the DWR website that shows all the units and the specific units show data that is helpful along with contact info. I will call the operator and learn more about that unit and it may entice me or turn me away. If it entices me, then I research further by talking to previous tag holders and hearing their experiences. 

I spend alot of time in the mountains whether it be camping, hiking, backpacking, atv riding, fishing and scouting where I pay attention to my surroundings and the animals that inhabit those areas. I take notes of where and when I see what I see. I literally have tons of papers filed away for certain species and different hunts. Files for maps, etc. It's amazing the information pile that grows in your filing cabinet. 

But every year, usually a few months before the application period starts, I start to go over all the data I've collected and start thinking about my chances and my options and I create a list that narrows my options down. Then I spend weeks deciding which tag I want to apply for.

The DWR website has TONS of information that can leave you spending hours on the website and going through lots of printer paper. Forums like these help as well by searching certain topics. But the best info I have got is from simply conversing with people about their past and experiences. Good luck


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

I'm less concerned about the particular unit -- rather, I'm trying to understand how to read the data. 

Are you suggesting that the actual Hunt numbers change from year to year? Meaning hunt 4088 (as listed in the above example) is Plateau/Fishlake West in one year, and some other hunt in another year?


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

SLCHunter said:


> Are you suggesting that the actual Hunt numbers change from year to year? Meaning hunt 4088 (as listed in the above example) is Plateau/Fishlake West in one year, and some other hunt in another year?


The hunt numbers change often as antlerless hunts are added and removed annually. Boundary and date changes are also made on the regular. It is difficult to track odds of drawing a tag because you have to go back to previous data and make sure you connect the dots with the unit boundary and dates. You cannot guarantee that you are looking at the same hunt if you just go by the hunt number year to year. The two hunts you listed, if you were to pull up the anterless draw data and scroll down to those hunt numbers you'd be looking at the data for:

2013: 4088 - Pine Valley & 4089 - Plateau, Boulder
2012: 4088 - San Juan & 4089 - San Juan, East of US-191
2011: 4088 - San Juan (early) & 4089 - San Juan (late)
You *HAVE* to go back to the proclamations/addendums and make sure the hunt name and dates match up before comparing data from previous years. Otherwise you're compiling and evaluating data across unrelated units.

I never got any solid answer to my question regarding reporting of only the 1st choice. So the best way I've found to use the DWR reports for antlerless is to see how many preference points it took last year to draw the unit that I'm looking at. Then I hope that I have one more point than it took last year. If not, there are no guarantees.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Coincidentally, the late hunts for the Plateau, Fishlake East & West late hunts were, respectively:
2013: 4096 & 4098
2012: No antleress tags were offered
2011: 4087 (combined East & West, the unit was split prior to the 2013 season)

My money says that things aren't adding up for you because you're comparing different units over different years.


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## RoosterKiller (May 27, 2011)

When I apply I use this formula. It works for me. I look for a hunt that has 1.0 to 1.2 or there abouts odds of me drawing a tag.So I look for these hunts with at least a 30% success rate.I am pretty confident with the time I put in the field that I can fill a tag consistenly with a 30% success rate.Now you can change that up or down depending on your experiance and ability. This works for me. Others may do it differently.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

Thanks derekp that's very helpful to get that confirmation. Odd, and inefficient, for DWR to do it like that -- it must be cumbersome for themselves to track their data! 

Can I find the addendum for any given year online, or do I need to get an old hardcopy? (Only the last couple of years of draw odds are posted on the big game overview site; there seems to be no information online on how to map units to numbers.)


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

SLCHunter said:


> Can I find the addendum for any given year online, or do I need to get an old hardcopy? (Only the last couple of years of draw odds are posted on the big game overview site; there seems to be no information online on how to map units to numbers.)


2011 thru 2013 Antlerless Application guidebooks are available on the guidebooks page.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

Now here's a different question. Suppose I have a preference point for antlerless elk. Suppose further I apply for a first-choice that in the past required more than one preference point, and a second choice that in the past required no preference point to draw a tag. 

Suppose I draw a tag for my second choice. Do I lose my preference point?


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

This is from the 2013 Guiidebook:

_"__You cannot apply for both a permit and a preference point for the same species. A preference point will not be issued if you are successful in drawing for the respective permit._
_You will not forfeit your preference points if you obtain a permit that remains available after the drawing."_

It's not overly clear, but if you you successfuly obtain a permit thru the draw it appears that you forfiet your preference point regardless of which "choice" the tag is & the only way to obtain an antlerless permit without forfeiting your points would be to purchase one of the remaining tags (or a control tag).


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## Nambaster (Nov 15, 2007)

Yes you lose your preference point and BTW there are no tags that require a preference point. Your tag allocation still enables luck to favor you in the draw. Your odds are just increased with preference points. 

Every year I say this and I will say it again this year. I am actually more pumped for the Antlerless Draw than the Bucks and bulls! Let's get it on!!!


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## Nambaster (Nov 15, 2007)

If you receive a depredation tag or purchase an under drawn tag over the counter your preference points remain.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

Nambaster said:


> Yes you lose your preference point and BTW there are no tags that require a preference point. Your tag allocation still enables luck to favor you in the draw. Your odds are just increased with preference points.
> 
> Every year I say this and I will say it again this year. I am actually more pumped for the Antlerless Draw than the Bucks and bulls! Let's get it on!!!


I agree Nambaster -- I should have put the "require" in quotes. Since it is rather unlikely that I will draw an antlered tag, and since calves and cows are better eating anyway, I'm as well psyched about this!!


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

I might be mistaken, but I have been under the impression that with preference points tags are awarded starting with the applicant who had the most PPs and then descending until tags run out, and with it going to a random allocation when there is a point level with more applicants than tags.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I understood it the same way as Johnnycakes. Tags go to highest preference point holders first, like deer. Have I been wrong all this time?


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

I read earlier today in an older addendum that in each "preference point class" tags go to those who have the best draw numbers. So draw numbers do matter?!


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

That is only in the case where the last of the tags are fewer than the number of applicants with the same number of points.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Preference points
Utah Admin. Rule R657-62-9
Preference points are used to ensure that applicants who are unsuccessful, or who apply for a preference point in the drawing for antlerless deer, antlerless elk and doe pronghorn, will have first preference in the next year's drawing for the respective permits.
If you do not want to hunt antlerless deer, antlerless elk or doe pronghorn in the current year, you may apply for a preference point by inserting the appropriate hunt choice code on the application. You will be charged a $10 application fee for every preference point you apply for (limit one per species).
The application period is May 29-June 20, 2013. You must have a current Utah hunting or combination license in order to apply for preference points.
If you are eligible for an antlerless deer, antlerless elk or doe pronghorn permit, you are eligible to apply for a preference point for that hunt.
You cannot apply for both a permit and a preference point for the same species. A preference point will not be issued if you are successful in drawing for the respective permit.
You will not forfeit your preference points if you obtain a permit that remains available after the drawing.
The Division began issuing preference points for antlerless deer, antlerless elk and doe pronghorn in 2006.
How your preference points work in the drawing
In the drawing, the antlerless deer, antlerless elk and doe pronghorn applications are sorted into groups by the number of preference points, from highest to lowest. There's a group for hunters with four preference points, one for hunters with three preference points and so forth. Within each group of preference points, the applications are then sorted from lowest to highest draw numbers. Permits are awarded in order, based on the hunt choice selected.
Preference points are averaged and rounded down when two or more applicants apply as a group. For example, if hunter A with three preference points and hunter B with zero preference points apply as a group, the preference points are averaged (1.5) and rounded down to one. Hunters with one preference point will be considered only after all groups or individuals with two or more preference points and before all groups or individuals with zero preference points.
In a second example, if hunter A with one preference point and hunter B with zero preference points apply as a group, the preference points are averaged (0.5) and rounded down to zero. This group with zero preference points will be considered after all groups or individuals with one or more preference points have been considered.
You may surrender your antlerless deer, antlerless elk or doe pronghorn permit before the season opening date to reinstate your preference points, including a preference point for the current year (just as if a permit had not been drawn).
You cannot apply for an antlerless deer, antlerless elk or doe pronghorn permit or a preference point if you are currently under wildlife license suspension for big game hunting.


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## nateysmith (May 13, 2013)

So how do control tags work? If you get for instance an OTC Archery elk tag, can you get an anterless control tag, if so how do you do it? Same question for deer. If you draw a deer tag for a unit, how do you get a control tag?

** EDIT **

I found it https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting-i...to-obtain-a-2013-antlerless-permit.html#types


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

How about a real world example from last year...

Attached is the result table for the Southwest Desert antlerless elk unit (I'll just focus on the results for resident & neglect the non-resident side of the table).
- 939 applicants for 103 tags
- applicants divided into point groups as shown in the table
- since the number of tags available was greater than the number of applicants in the 5 point group, each applicant was awarded a tag
- same for the 4 point group, each applicant recieved a tag
- since the number of tags remaning was less than the number of applicants in the 3 point group, the applicants were issued random numbers and then awarded tags based upon that random number
- the DWR reserves ~20% of the number of tags for youth applicants, this likely accounts for those applicants (12 from the 2 point group & 8 from the 1 point group) that were awarded tags

If the applicants in the 4 and 5 point groups were issued random numbers prior to being awarded tags... I don't know, but it is ultimately irrelevant. In this example the only group where the random number matters is the 3 point group. 
You could say that you had zero chance at drawing this tag with 0, 1, or 2 points. A 57% chance of drawing with 3 points, and guaranteed a tag with 4 points or greater.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

nateysmith said:


> So how do control tags work? If you get for instance an OTC Archery elk tag, can you get an anterless control tag, if so how do you do it? Same question for deer. If you draw a deer tag for a unit, how do you get a control tag?
> 
> ** EDIT **
> 
> I found it https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting-i...to-obtain-a-2013-antlerless-permit.html#types


That link gives the 2013 information & there are two additional areas that have been added to that list for 2014 (Wasatch West & Ogden).


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Yep,,,Derek is spot on !!!!

IMO, The bonus point system is better ....

The PP system COMPLETLY locks out lower point holders under 18 years old.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

derekp1999 said:


> How about a real world example from last year...
> 
> You could say that you had zero chance at drawing this tag with 0, 1, or 2 points. A 57% chance of drawing with 3 points, and guaranteed a tag with 4 points or greater.


... which means that for the correct interpretation of draw odds the youth tags are very -- very!! -- important.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

How about this example? This is hunt 4095 from 2013, Plateau/Fishlake-1000 Lakes East, Residents. 

The youth hunters are presumably somewhere in the 0,1,2 point groups -- but it is impossible to know how exactly they affect the overall draw odds, or?


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

SLCHunter said:


> How about this example? This is hunt 4095 from 2013, Plateau/Fishlake-1000 Lakes East, Residents.
> 
> The youth hunters are presumably somewhere in the 0,1,2 point groups -- but it is impossible to know how exactly they affect the overall draw odds, or?


Interesting results.

Since all applicants with one point or greater received tags it's hard to know how the 29 or 30 tags allocated for youth were issued. It's hard for me to even believe that all 30 or so tags would have been issued to eligible youth... I can't believe that of the 233 applicants that 30 or more of them were eligible youth. That would mean that youth would have made up more than 10% of the total applicant pool... seems like a high number to me. For recruitment's sake I hope that I'm wrong.
If I were to interpret this unit I would say that you would be guaranteed a tag with 1 point or more, and those with 0 points have 12% chance of drawing (this is removing all 30 youth allocated tags from the 0 point group). There is a chance that this percentage be higher if there are fewer than 30 eligieble youth that applied (also assuming that all the eligible youth fell within the 0 point group).

Lot's of assumptions... this is what I call paralysis by analysis territory.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

Good stuff, derekp, that makes sense to me! 
(And, yes, if we'd have the full data in excel format with youth hunters identified, we'd know more ... )


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