# Winter so far....



## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

Well half way through January and so far it's been another pretty easy winter here in Utah. Should see good survival again. Snows stacked up a little on top but benches and valleys where I'm at are pretty well bare . Warm temps in the forecast and only one week this winter that was actually bitter cold . How's everyone else's winter gone? Looking good for our wildlife elsewhere in Utah as well? It's not over yet, but usually this is the colder part, guess well see what's to come over the next couple months.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Blown away by the number of road kill... maybe thats because populations are higher and there are more to hit. Still, what a waste.


-DallanC


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

DallanC said:


> Blown away by the number of road kill... maybe thats because populations are higher and there are more to hit. Still, what a waste.
> 
> -DallanC


Where have you seen the road kill? I agree big wastes in it, wildlife crossing are important and hopefully our state keeps putting them in throughout the state.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

I do to some extent understand that a less than average winter is a good thing for struggling deer herds and hunters -- including me -- who drool over the opportunity to kill and cook one. However, this is not a "good winter," it's a complete disaster. Warm temps and lack of precipitation will make life along the Wasatch very different, if these trends persists, for man and all other sorts of creatures. I'd take some winter kill, and full reservoirs, and less climate change, over what we're experiencing.


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## 30-06-hunter (Sep 22, 2013)

SLCHunter said:


> I do to some extent understand that a less than average winter is a good thing for struggling deer herds and hunters -- including me -- who drool over the opportunity to kill and cook one. However, this is not a "good winter," it's a complete disaster. Warm temps and lack of precipitation will make life along the Wasatch very different, if these trends persists, for man and all other sorts of creatures. I'd take some winter kill, and full reservoirs, and less climate change, over what we're experiencing.


Our water content in the snow pack is actually over 100% of where we should be this time of winter and is only getting better.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

30-06-hunter said:


> Our water content in the snow pack is actually over 100% of where we should be this time of winter and is only getting better.


It's mid-Jan, and we have 60-70" base in the Cottonwood canyons, and it's warming up again. That's a bad winter as far as I can tell. What am I missing?


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## Groganite (Nov 14, 2012)

It will probably be just like last year where it didn't snow too much but then when spring hits it rains a ton.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

Groganite said:


> It will probably be just like last year where it didn't snow too much but then when spring hits it rains a ton.


My understanding is that that's not the same -- the rain runs off, the 'water value' of water in snow is much higher than that of rain.


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## ridgetop (Sep 13, 2007)

I was down on the Zion unit last weekend and it is very dry. We were able to drive up to the 8,000' mark. Which usually has 4-5' of snow by now. A lot of the upper elevation springs are drying up but like has been said, the North seems to be doing a lot better.


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## 30-06-hunter (Sep 22, 2013)

SLCHunter said:


> It's mid-Jan, and we have 60-70" base in the Cottonwood canyons, and it's warming up again. That's a bad winter as far as I can tell. What am I missing?


Have a look http://www.ksl.com/?nid=149&sid=134181


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

30-06-hunter said:


> Have a look http://www.ksl.com/?nid=149&sid=134181


A graph with some bars and percentages on it. Well that explains everything! I'm not saying I disagree with the graph, but how in the blue hell can we be doing so well on snow pack while receiving so little in the way of storm?


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## 30-06-hunter (Sep 22, 2013)

colorcountrygunner said:


> A graph with some bars and percentages on it. Well that explains everything! I'm not saying I disagree with the graph, but how in the blue hell can we be doing so well on snow pack while receiving so little in the way of storm?


Warm storms on the front drop a lot of denser wet snow in the mountains that packs down and doesn't get blown around, denser snow has a higher water content than powder so you don't see the deeper depths like you would with colder/lighter snow. Wetter/dense snow will also melt off slower in the spring. I'm not getting too worried either way, we still have 4-5 months of snow to come.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

30-06-hunter said:


> Warm storms on the front drop a lot of denser wet snow in the mountains that packs down and doesn't get blown around, denser snow has a higher water content than powder so you don't see the deeper depths like you would with colder/lighter snow. Wetter/dense snow will also melt off slower in the spring. I'm not getting too worried either way, we still have 4-5 months of snow to come.


That makes sense. I hope we do get some storm these next few months.


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## fishreaper (Jan 2, 2014)

The outskirts of Logan are looking nice. All fluffy and white; I spent most of sunday testing a new daypack up in dry canyon. in places on top of the ridges I was sinking as far as my knee at times while other times the snow was solid enough on the ice-cream-swirl-crests that it may as well have been limestone. With the recent snow, we're looking at a few inches in town, but I know Beaver Mountain should have all of its lifts running right now and I'm certain that the we're getting more snow at elevation. we'll have another storm here come friday or so, allegedly. This is my first winter here, so my perspective is meaningless.


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

The precipitation levels do not include this last spell that we just had either. Some areas are dry but overall the water year thus far has been better than normal and has been ideal for the deer herd. With the industry our company is in this is something that we follow very closely. Not only is the snowpack good but the aquifer is higher than normal which is good for those of us that don't drink from streams and waterholes.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

All in all, An excellent winter so far ...:!:..

Great for deer BUT even better fot turkeys.
Flocks expanding like CRAZY with these mild/wet winters.

Ski'd Park city yesterday----THE GEATEST SNOW ON EARTH..8)..

Actualy scouting turkeys/deer/elk today, Back to the slopes Fri/Mon.....

I LOVE WINTER..


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

colorcountrygunner said:


> A graph with some bars and percentages on it. Well that explains everything! I'm not saying I disagree with the graph, but how in the blue hell can we be doing so well on snow pack while receiving so little in the way of storm?


Although we have received relatively few storms this winter, the ones that have hit (at least the northern Wasatch Front) have been on the larger side. I keep an eye on a SNOTEL site that is closest to our family cabin... and I'd hate to bother you with another graph but the red line is the snowfall for this year with the blue line being average snowpack. You can clearly see that these larger storms we've been getting push us above average, but since the storms have been widely spaced through snowmelt and settling we come back to (or drop slightly below) the long term average.

It's been a decent year in terms of water, although admittedly more would be nice, but for the carry over of our big game herds the mild temperatures have been ideal.


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

We took the snow machines into our cabin in the Zion unit Monday. It is at 8600 feet. There is bare spots in my clearings. Should be at least 3-4 feet of snow by now. The South face below my cabin was totally bare of snow. Had to go over areas that are at 9500 feet. Even there it was maybe a couple of feet of snow. Not good...........:sad:

At least we did not have to worry about getting stuck. :mrgreen:
Made for a nice ride anyway. Spent the night at the cabin.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

colorcountrygunner said:


> A graph with some bars and percentages on it. Well that explains everything! I'm not saying I disagree with the graph, but how in the blue hell can we be doing so well on snow pack while receiving so little in the way of storm?


... I don't understand either what exactly this chart is based on.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

derekp1999 said:


> Although we have received relatively few storms this winter, the ones that have hit (at least the northern Wasatch Front) have been on the larger side. I keep an eye on a SNOTEL site that is closest to our family cabin... and I'd hate to bother you with another graph but the red line is the snowfall for this year with the blue line being average snowpack. You can clearly see that these larger storms we've been getting push us above average, but since the storms have been widely spaced through snowmelt and settling we come back to (or drop slightly below) the long term average.
> 
> It's been a decent year in terms of water, although admittedly more would be nice, but for the carry over of our big game herds the mild temperatures have been ideal.


This is great info Derek. Is this data directly from one specific snotel?


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

SLCHunter said:


> This is great info Derek. Is this data directly from one specific snotel?


Yes, it's fron one site and one site only.

Here's the link to the interactive map of all the SNOTEL sites acros the country. http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/webmap...&base=esriNgwm&lat=40.996&lon=-106.414&zoom=6

You can check out the ones that mean the most to you.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> Although we have received relatively few storms this winter, the ones that have hit (at least the northern Wasatch Front) have been on the larger side. I keep an eye on a SNOTEL site that is closest to our family cabin... *and I'd hate to bother you with another graph *but the red line is the snowfall for this year with the blue line being average snowpack. You can clearly see that these larger storms we've been getting push us above average, but since the storms have been widely spaced through snowmelt and settling we come back to (or drop slightly below) the long term average.
> 
> It's been a decent year in terms of water, although admittedly more would be nice, but for the carry over of our big game herds the mild temperatures have been ideal.


I am not bothered by graphs at all. You are projecting maybe? Did a graph touch you inappropriately when you were a child?


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

colorcountrygunner said:


> I am not bothered by graphs at all. You are projecting maybe? Did a graph touch you inappropriately when you were a child?


really??? Really??? REALLY!!! You jump straight to implying the sexual assault of a minor?!?

I mean good grief, stay clASSy my friend.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Get that burr out from under your saddle. It's startling your horse.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

colorcountrygunner said:


> Get that burr out from under your saddle. It's startling your horse.


Clearly you are not wrong.

If I'm the only one that found your initial response to my post and the implication of an "act to a minor" as highly inappropriate and highly offensive... then so be it.


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## Dahlmer (Sep 12, 2007)

colorcountrygunner said:


> Get that burr out from under your saddle. It's startling your horse.


Dude quit being an a$$. Your comment was totally out of line.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> Clearly you are not wrong.
> 
> If I'm the only one that found your initial response to my post and the implication of an "act to a minor" as highly inappropriate and highly offensive... then so be it.


Sorry. I will turn myself into the HR department and begin my sensitivity training immediately.


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## martymcfly73 (Sep 17, 2007)

colorcountrygunner said:


> Sorry. I will turn myself into the HR department and begin my sensitivity training immediately.


I hope you learned a valuable lesson. No jokes here. Strictly business. Sarcasm will NOT be tolerated. You're lucky you weren't banned for hurting someone's feelings. It's been known to happen.


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## Dunkem (May 8, 2012)

Good Grief-O,-


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

colorcountrygunner said:


> Sorry. I will turn myself into the HR department and begin my sensitivity training immediately.





martymcfly73 said:


> I hope you learned a valuable lesson. No jokes here. Strictly business. Sarcasm will NOT be tolerated. You're lucky you weren't banned for hurting someone's feelings. It's been known to happen.


So child abuse is a joke to you? Are spousal abuse, rape, racism all jokes as well? Shall we make _sarcastiC_ posts regarding those topics, too?

I enjoy a good joke and can be as irreverent as the next guy but there are certain matters that are under no circumstance a joke in my opinion.

Looks like we could get a little brush by here in the north tomorrow night with a little bit of snow in the mountains and rain in the valley then another one on Monday... keep them coming & we should end up just fine.


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## martymcfly73 (Sep 17, 2007)

derekp1999 said:


> So child abuse is a joke to you? Are spousal abuse, rape, racism all jokes as well? Shall we make _sarcastiC_ posts regarding those topics, too?
> 
> I enjoy a good joke and can be as irreverent as the next guy but there are certain matters that are under no circumstance a joke in my opinion.
> 
> Looks like we could get a little brush by here in the north tomorrow night with a little bit of snow in the mountains and rain in the valley then another one on Monday... keep them coming & we should end up just fine.


No but I know where you can buy some lotion for your lady parts for cheap.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> So child abuse is a joke to you? Are spousal abuse, rape, racism all jokes as well? Shall we make _sarcastiC_ posts regarding those topics, too?
> 
> I enjoy a good joke and can be as irreverent as the next guy but there are certain matters that are under no circumstance a joke *in my opinion.
> *
> ...


You said a mouthful. But to get back on topic that is good news we got some more storm on the horizon. I hope it comes to fruition.


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

derekp1999 said:


> Looks like we could get a little brush by here in the north tomorrow night with a little bit of snow in the mountains and rain in the valley then another one on Monday... keep them coming & we should end up just fine.


 Just fine? We'll have to have another monsoon season during the archery hunts to be anywhere near just fine down here!

Minersville Res - 59% normal water storage
Panguitch Lake - 61% normal water storage - snow depth 9"
Kolob - 64% snow water equivalent - 
Yankee Meadows - snow depth 25"
Brian Head - snow depth 32"
Midway Valley - 63% snow water equivalent - snow depth 33"
Webster Flat - 51% snow water equivalent - snow depth 15"
Merchant Valley - 65% snow water equivalent - snow depth 22"
Castle Valley - 65% snow water equivalent - snow depth 19"

Zion, Panguitch Lake, Pine Valley, Beaver units are all hurting!


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Elk from above, I just looked at the 10 day weather forecast for cedar city and there's a 0% chance of precipitation from now clear til January 25th. Ouch!


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

This just in ... "2014 hottest year in recorded history" 
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/science/earth/2014-was-hottest-year-on-record-surpassing-2010.html.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

elkfromabove said:


> Just fine? We'll have to have another monsoon season during the archery hunts to be anywhere near just fine down here!


You are correct and I should have been more clear... there are definitely areas of the state that are in much worse shape than others. I focus on one specific area so that is the area that I am referencing as being "just fine."


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

The trend will continue, because the majority are in denial of what's been happening and what's coming. I would expect much less snow in our state by the time I'm old.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

#1DEER 1-I said:


> The trend will continue, because the majority are in denial of what's been happening and what's coming. I would expect much less snow in our state by the time I'm old.


I'm starting to think you may be right.


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

Long range forcast is showing very few days below 45 degrees and only a few storms. Now this is a 30 day forcast so it's probably not. 100% but it's been pretty reliable before. If we get that mild of weather with a few wet storms I bet fawn survival will be very high this year , and very few adults will die this winter , we may stay on this upward trend of deer and elk numbers.


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Long range forcast ...........
> 
> If we get that mild of weather with a few wet storms I bet fawn survival will be very high this year , and very few adults will die this winter , we may stay on this upward trend of deer and elk numbers.


 Your long range forecast apparently isn't long enough, especially for southern Utah via a continuing drought and at some point this upward trend will spiral down to almost nada! Utah's sagebrush is dying!


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## 30-06-hunter (Sep 22, 2013)

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Long range forcast is showing very few days below 45 degrees and only a few storms. Now this is a 30 day forcast so it's probably not. 100% but it's been pretty reliable before. If we get that mild of weather with a few wet storms I bet fawn survival will be very high this year , and very few adults will die this winter , we may stay on this upward trend of deer and elk numbers.


I would rather have heavy snow that provides water for myself to drink than light or no snow that allows a few animals to survive.


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## utahgolf (Sep 8, 2007)

although I love chasing deer and elk. We need water big time!!!! I would rather see a ton of snow fall during early spring than have it be mild for the animals.


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

Maybe we should learn to conserve , rather than take advantage of what we are given . The climate is changing and we will have to change with it or well dry up. Expect less snow as our lives go on. Our children's and grandchildrens Utah will look much different than it does now. Instead of trying to maintain abusing our soils , aquifers , and developing important areas in the name of money, we need to stop being stupid and looking towards a more sustainable future. Developing Utahs future by doubling or tripling our population isn't going to help that . There comes a point we reach our capacity as well. I'm not a tree hugger but you can't continue to abuse the resources in the same way when climate isn't staying the same at all. But instead of doing that well find more rivers to ****, streams to drain, and aquifers to dry up because the majority don't think we can have that big of negative affect on our world. Guess what we do , and as smart as people think they are well never learn until we have to. 

As for our sagebrush dieing, it's dieing from many reasons not just drought , we've actually had some decent moisture especially at the end of summer the lady couple years, but our snowpack has been bleak for a long time. Sage brush stands are dieing of old age due to not letting natural fire cycles take place , because if we do that we have cheat grass. Find the non-poisonous natural way to fight back cheat grass and well be a lot better off.

I also am hoping for a few decent storms but they will or they won't come . That's one thing we have no control over .


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## Broadside_Shot (Feb 22, 2010)

I thought that option #2 was good for the Deer Herds.
I didn't know that winters and rain had anything to do with it. :shock:

Man, I hope I can get a tag this year. Should be good. I have waited 3 years.


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## Skally (Apr 20, 2012)

No one should have nice green lawns in Utah. We waste a LOT of water on fancy lawns and flower beds, especially the city owned property.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Skally said:


> No one should have nice green lawns in Utah. We waste a LOT of water on fancy lawns and flower beds, especially the city owned property.


But thats where the deer live.

-DallanC


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## Iron Bear (Nov 19, 2008)

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Long range forcast is showing very few days below 45 degrees and only a few storms. Now this is a 30 day forcast so it's probably not. 100% but it's been pretty reliable before. If we get that mild of weather with a few wet storms I bet fawn survival will be very high this year , and very few adults will die this winter , we may stay on this upward trend of deer and elk numbers.


Did anyone tell predators not to kill deer?

Is this bad cougar weather?


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## Groganite (Nov 14, 2012)

I prefer mild winters and more animals...just sayin we could use a good plague right about now...to many fn people as it is...-O,-


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

Iron Bear said:


> Did anyone tell predators not to kill deer?
> 
> Is this bad cougar weather?


No but it's been bad cougar hunting weather. Just to let you know IB I took out one of those peskey kitties just a couple weeks ago for you .


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## Iron Bear (Nov 19, 2008)

It was the right thing to do.


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## Kevin D (Sep 15, 2007)

Just a couple of thoughts....

Percent of normal snow pack and/or reservoir capacity is not a perfect predictor of range health and available browse for mule deer in the upcoming year. Just as important as the amount of moisture is the timing it is released. For instance we could have a normal snow year, a warmer spring where all the water is released in a short period of time, and a dry summer and be worse off than if we had below normal snow pack but a series of small storms through out the spring and summer that keeps plants green and growing. So just because we may have below average snow pack currently is no reason to panic.

Keep in mind too that the first bit of moisture released goes into the ground first, run off is basically that water that is left over after the ground is saturated and has absorbed all that it is able to. Reservoir capacity is, therefore, of little consequence as far as the range plants on the mountains are concerned.

Also, it is moisture on the winter range that is the most important. In most areas of the state, winter range is the inhibiting factor in mule deer populations. Summer ranges generally produce an excess capacity of food and mule deer spread out taking advantage of it. There is more food available than they could possibly eat. But that excess becomes buried and unavailable once winter hits and all the deer are forced on onto smaller acreages where competition for food becomes fierce. Winter range is the critical habitat for mule deer and how moisture is received throughout the year on the winter range becomes more important to deer survival than snow pack in the high country.

Another thing about winter range is that the harder the winter, the more the deer are forced onto smaller and smaller acreages to survive. The effect of this is twofold, one is the competition for food becomes greater, and second the close proximity of deer to each other aids in the transmission of diseases. Both of these factors lead to a higher mortality rate.

A biologist friend told me that mule deer by and large can handle deep snow, and they can handle extremely cold temperatures, but it's when these conditions occur at the same time that he sees the massive winterkill. Given that, we have seen neither deep snow or the extremely cold temperatures this year. Deer are currently making use of the wider areas of winter range, so early indications are that deer populations should come through the winter in fine shape.


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

Kevin D said:


> Just a couple of thoughts....
> 
> Percent of normal snow pack and/or reservoir capacity is not a perfect predictor of range health and available browse for mule deer in the upcoming year. Just as important as the amount of moisture is the timing it is released. For instance we could have a normal snow year, a warmer spring where all the water is released in a short period of time, and a dry summer and be worse off than if we had below normal snow pack but a series of small storms through out the spring and summer that keeps plants green and growing. So just because we may have below average snow pack currently is no reason to panic.
> 
> ...


And for the most part we have received quite a bit of moisture through the year, a lot of it rain during early spring/late summer with lower than normal snowpack . That is basically repeating so far this season although I'm still hoping for a few decent storms before winter ends. Temps have remained good and are supposed to continue remaining higher. At this point in all the winters I can remember the main cold snaps have usually passed and I doubt well see too cold of temps from here on. I also doubt we will see deep snow that really sticks for a long time. Possible , but heading into February like this, if it stays relatively the same deer and elk should do pretty well as long as a little more moisture rolls through.


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## Finnegan (Sep 7, 2007)

I notice that some of the trees are waking up already and plants are sprouting a month early. A hard freeze, which is sure to come, will put a rude end to that. If it stays warm for another week, I won't be getting any fruit this year.

So I'm wondering how or whether the same dynamic might affect the forage and cover later in the year. Anybody know anything about that?


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

Kevin D said:


> Just a couple of thoughts....
> 
> Percent of normal snow pack and/or reservoir capacity is not a perfect predictor of range health and available browse for mule deer in the upcoming year. Just as important as the amount of moisture is the timing it is released. For instance we could have a normal snow year, a warmer spring where all the water is released in a short period of time, and a dry summer and be worse off than if we had below normal snow pack but a series of small storms through out the spring and summer that keeps plants green and growing. So just because we may have below average snow pack currently is no reason to panic.
> 
> ...


 You and your biologist friend's observations are correct as far as you both go, but you both miss some things that change it all, ie: cattle, sheep, cheatgrass, aging sagebrush, long-term drought, freeways, deerproof fencing, human encroachment, pinion and juniper encroachment, drying creekbeds and springs, increasing elk and deer herds per the great summer range, among others. And your observations don't cover all of Utah.

Speaking for the Panguitch Lake unit where the winter range is on the Parowan Front, the problem isn't the deep snow and the cold preventing the deer from utilizing the quality forage. The problem is there isn't any! Or, at least very little! And year by year it's getting worse to the point that it would take some major rehabilitation and deer removal to even keep up, let alone repair the damage. And the fear is that a future harsh winter with deep snow and cold or a big summer cheatgrass fire or a continuing drought would nearly wipe the deer herd out. We've been kicking this can down the road for so long, it's now a 55 gallon drum. Can we afford to keep kicking? I guess we'll find out soon enough when the tag numbers are set in May/June.


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

elkfromabove said:


> You and your biologist friend's observations are correct as far as you both go, but you both miss some things that change it all, ie: cattle, sheep, cheatgrass, aging sagebrush, long-term drought, freeways, deerproof fencing, human encroachment, pinion and juniper encroachment, drying creekbeds and springs, increasing elk and deer herds per the great summer range, among others. And your observations don't cover all of Utah.
> 
> Speaking for the Panguitch Lake unit where the winter range is on the Parowan Front, the problem isn't the deep snow and the cold preventing the deer from utilizing the quality forage. The problem is there isn't any! Or, at least very little! And year by year it's getting worse to the point that it would take some major rehabilitation and deer removal to even keep up, let alone repair the damage. And the fear is that a future harsh winter with deep snow and cold or a big summer cheatgrass fire or a continuing drought would nearly wipe the deer herd out. We've been kicking this can down the road for so long, it's now a 55 gallon drum. Can we afford to keep kicking? I guess we'll find out soon enough when the tag numbers are set in May/June.


With the last part of your post are you speaking statewide? Or mainly the panguich unit that is over objective?


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## Kevin D (Sep 15, 2007)

elkfromabove said:


> You and your biologist friend's observations are correct as far as you both go, but you both miss some things that change it all, ie: cattle, sheep, cheatgrass, aging sagebrush, long-term drought, freeways, deerproof fencing, human encroachment, pinion and juniper encroachment, drying creekbeds and springs, increasing elk and deer herds per the great summer range, among others.


Merely limiting my focus to the question at hand....


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

#1DEER 1-I said:


> With the last part of your post are you speaking statewide? Or mainly the panguich unit that is over objective?


I was referring mainly to the Panguitch Lake unit which I know better than most, and which seems to be further down the can-kicking road per the current attempts to fix it via the DWR recommended doe hunts and transplants. But the problems exist in many other units as well, just not yet quite as pronounced including going over population and buck to doe ratio objectives. Some of you folks insisted on managing hunters unit by unit as part of the current plan and told us that we would see tag increases as the units reached population and buck to doe ratio objectives. Let's see if you'll now keep your word!


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

Kevin D said:


> Merely limiting my focus to the question at hand....


 Touche'!


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

elkfromabove said:


> I was referring mainly to the Panguitch Lake unit which I know better than most, and which seems to be further down the can-kicking road per the current attempts to fix it via the DWR recommended doe hunts and transplants. But the problems exist in many other units as well, just not yet quite as pronounced including going over population and buck to doe ratio objectives. Some of you folks insisted on managing hunters unit by unit as part of the current plan and told us that we would see tag increases as the units reached population and buck to doe ratio objectives. Let's see if you'll now keep your word!


So you believe our objectives are too high on other units? Because we aren't even at objectives on most yet and they just raised objectives with a statewide objective of 425k. As for buck:doe ratios I believe you'll see increased tags again this year and higher buck:doe ratios will make for a herd growing slower. As for the doe hunts and how they're dealing with the situation it has been because of social and special interest groups (SFW) why doe tags aren't higher to lower the population on PL, not the DWRs decisions.


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

#1DEER 1-I said:


> So you believe our objectives are too high on other units? Because we aren't even at objectives on most yet and they just raised objectives with a statewide objective of 425k. As for buck:doe ratios I believe you'll see increased tags again this year and higher buck:doe ratios will make for a herd growing slower. As for the doe hunts and how they're dealing with the situation it has been because of social and special interest groups (SFW) why doe tags aren't higher to lower the population on PL, not the DWRs decisions.


In fact, I do not believe our deer population objectives are too high. They are based on unit size, deer habitat percentages and range trend studies (science and math). We don't have the latest figures yet, but in 2014 we had 8 general units that were at population objectives or higher. Yet, Panguitch Lake is the only general unit with doe hunts and transplants designed to reduce the population. We do have other doe hunts and transplants, but they are for urban deer problems, not for population reduction (exception: Antelope Island which is not a general unit). We can raise the population objective all we want, but it won't solve the declining habitat problem. Only removing does will do that.

However, I do have mixed thoughts about the buck to doe ratio objectives. They are based solely on social reasons and have very little to do with science or math. Barring any changes this year, we currently have 11 general units over buck to doe ratios, but the few increases in buck tags does very little to correct that. In fact, they don't even keep up with the population increases, let alone reduce the ratio. Let's go back to PL as an example. We are 3,200 deer OVER population objective and 2 bucks per 100 does OVER buck to doe ratio. 3,200 deer x 19 bucks per 100 does (16%) = 512 new bucks that need to be killed just to break even. So how many tags did we issue? 200! And how many more bucks were killed? About 75! That's a far cry from 512 needed just to break even. And why didn't we issue more tags. That's all the DWR thought they could get through the RACs and Wildlife Board.

And that's the same excuse we heard on the Parowan Front range ride when we (UWC) asked the DWR reps why they only proposed 150 doe tags after telling us (3 UWC, 4 SFW, 2 DWR, 2 BLM, 1 NRCS reps) that we needed to take 400-600 does every year for the next 5 years on order to allow the range to recover. And the SFW members concurred. They were debating amongst themselves as to who was going to tell Don, 'cause none of them wanted to, so they offered to transplant 100 per year to bring the total up to 250. Once that offer was made, we (UWC) couldn't get either party to increase the numbers and that's where it now stands, ie: only 1/2 the number needed to allow the range to recover.

Finally, if you think the promised increase in population will result in more permits, I'm pretty sure you'll be disappointed 'cause there are already efforts to increase the number of limited entry units, and the buck to doe ratios on general units in preparation for the population increase. More deer doesn't necessarily equal more deer tags.


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

elkfromabove said:


> In fact, I do not believe our deer population objectives are too high. They are based on unit size, deer habitat percentages and range trend studies (science and math). We don't have the latest figures yet, but in 2014 we had 8 general units that were at population objectives or higher. Yet, Panguitch Lake is the only general unit with doe hunts and transplants designed to reduce the population. We do have other doe hunts and transplants, but they are for urban deer problems, not for population reduction (exception: Antelope Island which is not a general unit). We can raise the population objective all we want, but it won't solve the declining habitat problem. Only removing does will do that.
> 
> However, I do have mixed thoughts about the buck to doe ratio objectives. They are based solely on social reasons and have very little to do with science or math. Barring any changes this year, we currently have 11 general units over buck to doe ratios, but the few increases in buck tags does very little to correct that. In fact, they don't even keep up with the population increases, let alone reduce the ratio. Let's go back to PL as an example. We are 3,200 deer OVER population objective and 2 bucks per 100 does OVER buck to doe ratio. 3,200 deer x 19 bucks per 100 does (16%) = 512 new bucks that need to be killed just to break even. So how many tags did we issue? 200! And how many more bucks were killed? About 75! That's a far cry from 512 needed just to break even. And why didn't we issue more tags. That's all the DWR thought they could get through the RAC and Wildlife Board.
> 
> ...


I agree with you on all points. If we are severely over population objective with certain units such as PL something has to be done before winter comes back with force and knocks it out itself. I don't believe meeting objectives or being slightly over is a call for alarm though. I don't believe too many deer in 99% of situations around the state are the reason for range declines though. Cheat grass and non-natural fire cycles as well as preventing natural fire cycles is destroying our western landscape. Sage brush was built for dry weather but everything has it's life cycle and much of the sage brush is dying because it's been here for so long. Cheat grass is ruining our landscape and causing all kinds of havock now and into the future until it has an enemy to stop it.

As for tags I don't see how a proposal for more LE units could even stand. We have a growing population with good buck:doe ratios what wil there argument be to get more LE units? I would hate to see any more. We have as many as we need right now and I think good opportunity in the state for each side. We have more deer and higher buck:doe ratios, I hope to see an increase in tag numbers this year, on another note is like to see less anterless elk tags this year. But back to deer, I see your point, getting the late muzzleloader hunt through was of big concern, so they've got there work cut out for then to properly manage our wildlife.


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

#1DEER 1-I said:


> I agree with you on all points. If we are severely over population objective with certain units such as PL something has to be done before winter comes back with force and knocks it out itself. I don't believe meeting objectives or being slightly over is a call for alarm though. I don't believe too many deer in 99% of situations around the state are the reason for range declines though. Cheat grass and non-natural fire cycles as well as preventing natural fire cycles is destroying our western landscape. Sage brush was built for dry weather but everything has it's life cycle and much of the sage brush is dying because it's been here for so long. Cheat grass is ruining our landscape and causing all kinds of havock now and into the future until it has an enemy to stop it.
> 
> As for tags I don't see how a proposal for more LE units could even stand. We have a growing population with good buck:doe ratios what wil there argument be to get more LE units? I would hate to see any more. We have as many as we need right now and I think good opportunity in the state for each side. We have more deer and higher buck:doe ratios, I hope to see an increase in tag numbers this year, on another note is like to see less anterless elk tags this year. But back to deer, I see your point, getting the late muzzleloader hunt through was of big concern, so they've got there work cut out for then to properly manage our wildlife.


And I agree with your points as well! (Wow, aren't those a couple of firsts!). No cause for alarm yet on some over objective units, but we need to keep an eye on them with some future doe hunts in mind. (IMO, transplants are not cost effective and should only be done when safety or legal issues prevent hunting.)

I also recognize that the general habitat problems are not the deer numbers. They're primarily the two things you mentioned plus a few others and the overpopulation just exacerbates the problem. But leaving the same number of deer on the unit will not allow the habitat to recover even if we do eliminate or reduce the cheatgrass and/or replant the sagebrush. It'll take time and good weather to come back, not some deer eating the seedlings.

As for the efforts to increase LE units, that's already started. 
1) During the Mule Deer Committee meetings, one of the public-at-large reps who was looking out more for the 33% of survey respondents who wanted more LE units than for the 66% who didn't, first proposed that we include a LE portion in every general unit based on 33% of the herd numbers. When that didn't fly with the committee, he proposed we break the state up into 72 units instead of 38 and make 1/3 of them LE. That didn't fly either. I don't think we've heard the last of those proposals.
2) There has already been a push for a couple of years for making the Mineral Mountains in the Beaver unit into an LE unit. Again, it was not accepted by the Mule Deer Committee nor by the Wildlife Board, but I'm sure it'll come up again. The reasons given are that the Mineral Mountains already have the trophy deer in the numbers needed to make it LE and that the terrain tends to keep the hunter numbers low and that the unit is isolated enough to make boundaries easy to identify.
3) One of the most popular excuses used for creating LE units is the high buck to doe ratios on some units/subunits* (*2012 - Kamas-28, Anthro-28, Range Creek-24, Salt Lake-28, Avintaquin-27, SW Desert-30, Boulder-25, Zion-25, Pine Valley-24). The thought is that they are already LE caliber and it's just a matter of keeping them that way.
4) Per the Partners in Pine Valley proposal to the Mule Deer Committee, we should allow self-appointed local groups the ability to manage the units for increased buck to doe ratios as well a populations, which is one step closer to making them LE units.
There may be other efforts I'm not aware of, but rest assured they'll keep coming.

FWIW, Cheatgrass does have one known enemy. It's a fungus called the Black Fingers of Death which invades the seeds, and it's use on cheatgrass is currently being studied by a BYU graduate, Jennifer Finch. She has done the study since she was an underclassman(woman) and now needs to figure out the best way and time to apply it. Let's hope she succeeds. Edited: Dr. Susan Meyer of the Forest Service has also taken up the fight and has apparently made some strides in getting it applied on a large scale basis.


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

elkfromabove said:


> And I agree with your points as well! (Wow, aren't those a couple of firsts!). No cause for alarm yet on some over objective units, but we need to keep an eye on them with some future doe hunts in mind. (IMO, transplants are not cost effective and should only be done when safety or legal issues prevent hunting.)
> 
> I also recognize that the general habitat problems are not the deer numbers. They're primarily the two things you mentioned plus a few others and the overpopulation just exacerbates the problem. But leaving the same number of deer on the unit will not allow the habitat to recover even if we do eliminate or reduce the cheatgrass and/or replant the sagebrush. It'll take time and good weather to come back, not some deer eating the seedlings.
> 
> ...


I am aware of the fungus I just didn't know where they had gotten with it or how long it will be used in the fight against cheat grass. Hopefully it'll be the death of cheat grass without being detrimental to anything else , we humans have a way of really messing things up most times.


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## Lobowatcher (Nov 25, 2014)

Kevin D said:


> Just a couple of thoughts....
> 
> *Percent of normal snow pack and/or reservoir capacity is not a perfect predictor of range health and available browse for mule deer in the upcoming year.* Just as important as the amount of moisture *is the timing it is released.* For instance we could have a normal snow year, a warmer spring where all the water is released in a short period of time, and a dry summer and be worse off than if we had below normal snow pack but a series of small storms through out the spring and summer that keeps plants green and growing. So just because we may have below average snow pack currently is no reason to panic.
> 
> ...


Fair amount of good info lightly touched on here. The one thing I would add is the overall importance of the winter range. Yes, many biologists still believe that winter range is the inhibiting factor in mule deer survival, however, many more are coming around to believing summer range may be just as critical. Mule deer nutritional demands/requirements is a complicated dynamic and fluctuates greatly spatially and temporally. A very wet spring can be just as devastating to mule deer as a drought with regards to their ability to process nutrients.

So far I'm not too concerned with the moisture were are receiving, but that can change in a heart beat. It is an interesting winter here in Utah for sure.


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## Lobowatcher (Nov 25, 2014)

elkfromabove said:


> FWIW, *Cheatgrass does have one known enemy*. It's a fungus called the Black Fingers of Death which invades the seeds, and it's use on cheatgrass is currently being studied by a BYU graduate, Jennifer Finch. She has done the study since she was an underclassman(woman) and now needs to figure out the best way and time to apply it. Let's hope she succeeds. Edited: Dr. Susan Meyer of the Forest Service has also taken up the fight and has apparently made some strides in getting it applied on a large scale basis.


There are several 'known enemies' of Cheatgrass, with two fungal pathogens leading the list. Although the work in biocontrol of this invasive flora looks promising, there are still some drawbacks that may be difficult or impossible to overcome. There is so much work being accomplished in this area it's difficult to keep up. Dr. Meyer is definitely a leader in the field and has been working on related Cheatgrass biocontrol systems since the late nineties. Glad you are aware of some of the undertakings.


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

Lobowatcher said:


> There are several 'known enemies' of Cheatgrass, with two fungal pathogens leading the list. Although the work in biocontrol of this invasive flora looks promising, there are still some drawbacks that may be difficult or impossible to overcome. There is so much work being accomplished in this area it's difficult to keep up. Dr. Meyer is definitely a leader in the field and has been working on related Cheatgrass biocontrol systems since the late nineties. Glad you are aware of some of the undertakings.


Thanks for the additional info! That invasive flora isn't called cheatgrass for nothing!


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## 30-06-hunter (Sep 22, 2013)

We need some serious snow/rain, I'm starting to worry now.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

A nice, wet, heavy storm is moving into the southern half of Utah as I type.

Infact, the new 90 day forcast is putting above normal precip central UT south.

I-70 south can get pounded in this type pattern------Be careful what you wish for.;-)


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

Our wettest water months are ahead of us


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

goofy elk said:


> A nice, wet, heavy storm is moving into the southern half of Utah as I type.
> 
> Infact, the new 90 day forcast is putting above normal precip central UT south.
> 
> I-70 south can get pounded in this type pattern------Be careful what you wish for.;-)


I'm still wishing for it. It is supposed to rain tomorrow and possibly Saturday, I'm hoping for both and snow up high. Temps are still reading upper 50's and lower 60's even in my area for the next 10 days though. I've never seen 50's and 60's a month long through January and February, usually we have a pretty good cold spell right now, and its staying warm.

Some of it isn't the moisture that worries me so much as how high temps seem to stay now and what affect that will have on the snow piling up instead of melting off too soon. I'm sure hoping for above average precip over the next 90 days or things could be a little dry this year.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Looks like winter were I've been hanging out the last couple months........


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

Yeah , 60's and dry all week, bye snow. What's the date again May something?


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

goofy elk said:


> Looks like winter were I've been hanging out the last couple months........


 Nice! How much snow is in the bottom of those bumps on Thayne's?
and how is the Hoist treating you?
100" year to date sucks!


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Yes, Thayne's-----Good eye!

You know what, Both PC and the Canyons ( Now PCMR ) have done the
most outstanding job for what snow we have it's unbelievable!

The skiing is VERY good!

We were at the Canyons yesterday, did 24,000 vertical feet.
It was very good on Super Condor, Sun peak Expess, and Ninety-nine.....

But, Out favorite's are Motherload, Jupitor, and Thaynes---The 50 year old lifts!
And BEST 'hoist's' ANYWERE!----Be there angain Wendsday.......


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## blackdog (Sep 11, 2007)

Goofy, Park City blows. 
Go to a real mountain like the Bird. Even the scenery is 10 times better.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Nice pic from the tram top dog!

I grew up with season pass's at the bird---I was my favorite too,,,
30+ years ago......


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## blackdog (Sep 11, 2007)

I skied there 30+ years ago myself Goofy. This is my 38th season skiing SB. I met my wife there, we got married there. I've had 2 close friends die there. It was the best mountain 30 years ago and it's still the best today. There's been lots of changes, some I like lots I don't like, but the terrain has never changed and thats way I ski there.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Crazy dog!
I skied at SB quite a bit 1975 thru 85........

Bet we rode up the tram together a day or two.........


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

middlefork; said:


> Nice! How much snow is in the bottom of those bumps on Thayne's?
> and how is the Hoist treating you?
> 100" year to date sucks!


I was on Thaynes yesterday and relized you were meening Hoist the run?

I made a couple runs off it just cuz of this post...:!:........

Gotta say, that is ONE STEEP MOTHA------
3-4 inchs of new snow made it pretty dang fun tho...


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## utahgolf (Sep 8, 2007)

anyone else seeing all their flowers and weeds coming up? crazy!


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

We are getting 4 wheelers into cabins with NO problem that we should be using snowmobiles to get into...........Only had snow machines out once. 
The one is usually mid to late April, and the other usually about mid May before we get 4 wheelers in. 
We need snow in the Zion unit badly.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

:!:
Looks like thing are changing......:!:.....

Another BIG snow storm squaring up over centeral,southern Utah the next 36 hrs,
And yet a biigger, colder event forcast 5 day from now.......

Winter in March....:!:..........


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

goofy elk said:


> :!:
> Looks like thing are changing......:!:.....
> 
> Another BIG snow storm squaring up over centeral,southern Utah the next 36 hrs,
> ...


The weather has definetly changed spring in February and winter in March. Hopefully this storm produces more than the last "big storm" because it didn't leave as much as they said it would.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

It's going to have to do this and more pretty steadily throughout the spring to catch up. Most places are sitting in the 70's or lower of "normal." A couple areas are doing really well. A handful of others really bad.


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

...anyway, getting hammered in the southern portion of the state (SE region). 1 1/2 - 2 ft expected over the next couple of days. SW CO around Wolf Creek Pass is expecting 6-9 ft!


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

From the totals I saw yesterday, Colorado has got a lot of snow this year. Almost the entire state was near 100% of normal or higher. Some areas a lot higher. 

Interesting that its neighboring state in the same overall mountain range here in Utah sits almost entirely below 70% of normal.


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

yep the Jet Stream has been north or east of us for most of the year. Too much high pressure to let the moisture in. Colorado definitely has gotten hammered.


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

We have over a foot of new snow at my house already today here in Cedar City, and it is still snowing like a dog...........That is after 15" last weekend. All or nothing this year.
Suppose to snow off and on thru Tuesday. Could end up looking like Boston the way it is going. It's good to get some moisture, just not all at once.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Good thing we have option 2. It protects the deer on the winter range from these late storms!


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

TS30 said:


> Good thing we have option 2. It protects the deer on the winter range from these late storms!


You just had to, didn't ya? :mrgreen:


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

2full said:


> We have over a foot of new snow at my house already today here in Cedar City, and it is still snowing like a dog...........That is after 15" last weekend. All or nothing this year.
> Suppose to snow off and on thru Tuesday. Could end up looking like Boston the way it is going. It's good to get some moisture, just not all at once.


No riding 4 wheelers into the cabin now, eh 2 full?


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

No 4 wheelers for a while..............
I'll wait a few days even for the snow machines. 
But we will take them in.


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

Good to see moisture again, looks like it's gonna warm up after Wednesday again. Probably will be good, it can't be good to burry the deer herd in the last few weeks of winter.


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

TS30 said:


> From the totals I saw yesterday, Colorado has got a lot of snow this year. Almost the entire state was near 100% of normal or higher. Some areas a lot higher.
> 
> Interesting that its neighboring state in the same overall mountain range here in Utah sits almost entirely below 70% of normal.


Steamboat is down this year as far as snow.

Right now, I work temporarily in Steamboat and that's all the locals ever tell me.

I don't know if I should believe them, because there is still like 3-4 feet of snow on the ground.

*Average Ski Resort Snowfall: 349 inches

This Year: 179 inches*


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## Kingfisher (Jul 25, 2008)

its still plenty bad for snow and expectations for streamflow: new record low snowpack for march 1... this storm will likely bring snow totals up... maybe 4 to 5 percent at best, then back to the high pressure. if it stays dry the rest of the month, we will be at the 50 to 60% of average range come april 1. not real optimistic at this point.
record low swe:
Little Bear
Ben Lomond Trail
Parley's Summit
Thaynes Canyon
Mining Fork
Vernon Creek
Steel Creek Park
Chepeta
Kings Cabin
Payson RS

Those with 2nd lowest SWE, as of 3/1:
Ben Lomond Pk
Dry Bread Pond
Hayden Fork
Brighton
Rocky Basin Settlement
Currant Creek
Clear Creek #2
Merchant Valley


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