# 2021-22 Snowpack



## PBH

We might as well get this new water year kicked off right. Not a bad start. 

I have an idea -- instead of waiting until July to start fasting and praying for rain, can we start the prayers right now? Let's just keep them going for the whole year. I hate waiting until summer monsoon month to pray for rain....


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## backcountry

That was an epic October storm.

NOAA is forecasting a likelihood of a warmer and drier than average winter at this point. Let's hope they are wrong.


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## PBH

backcountry said:


> NOAA is forecasting a likelihood of a warmer and drier than average winter at this point. Let's hope they are wrong.


Yep. That just makes this October storm that much more important.


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## #1DEER 1-I

We are very lucky for the storms over the past few months. This one especially has undoubtably helped soil moisture which will be vital heading into winter and into next spring for runoff. Lakes, ponds, and springs were as bad as I’ve ever seen them to end this fall. Without a decent winter next summer could be a lot worse of a drought than this past one. Here’s to hoping a few big storms slam the mountain tops in the next few months. And here’s to hoping the weather services forecast changes.


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## pollo70

True that!☔


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## cowboy

Try running cattle. Its been epically bad for us. These fall storms have sure increased my level of hope for doing it another year. The deer sure love the green grass where its not covered by snow.


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## Bax*

Can’t remember where I heard / read this, but the information I remember is that these early storms are really important as wetting the ground prior to snowfall helps control how quickly the water is absorbed into the ground which helps direct water to our reservoirs.

Hopefully these storms helped with that


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## hazmat

The mountains are getting it right now


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## PBH

Not so sure this is accurate -- anyone know what's up with the snotel reports?


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## cowboy

They take a while to update sometimes. They gather the data and it’s an extremely low frequency signal that bounces the data back to central collection points. I built one of the central collection points about 12 years ago. Clouds and storms slow down the data transfer rate. The main places have regular power and generator back up. The data collection sites are solar power. It will get caught up


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## PBH

cowboy -- thanks.

It wasn't so long ago that you could view a 7 day snow-depth report with good results the day after a storm. So, have there been "upgrades" implemented that have caused the low frequency signals and slow data transfers? 

-- yes, I'm being a smartass, but at the same time am curious. I know that my wireless home internet has been through an "upgrade", which in all reality was nothing more than radio frequency change that lowered the throughput from the "old" technology. The end result of the "upgrade" is poorer internet connection throughput.


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## MrShane

That amount would fill Powell for sure, and Mead!
And every other low spot between….


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## middlefork

MrShane said:


> That amount would fill Powell for sure, and Mead!
> And every other low spot between….


You do realize that we are currently in day 19 of the current water year right? And average is also based on the history of the same dates.


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## cowboy

PBH said:


> cowboy -- thanks.
> 
> It wasn't so long ago that you could view a 7 day snow-depth report with good results the day after a storm. So, have there been "upgrades" implemented that have caused the low frequency signals and slow data transfers?
> 
> -- yes, I'm being a smartass, but at the same time am curious. I know that my wireless home internet has been through an "upgrade", which in all reality was nothing more than radio frequency change that lowered the throughput from the "old" technology. The end result of the "upgrade" is poorer internet connection throughput.


Like anything the government touches, they make it way more difficult than is needed. I was amazed at how complex the system was to gather that data. And I was just building the high voltage line to the new central collection center, I wasn’t doing any of the technical stuff. I agree on how things get improved and they aren’t


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## Packout

Current Snow Depth







www.fs.fed.us




Lots of places with up to 20" and some with over 2'. 



PBH said:


> Not so sure this is accurate -- anyone know what's up with the snotel reports?


The numbers given are accurate- in relation to Oct 19th in years past. The other areas not having reports is wrong.


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## DreadedBowHunter

I hope it’s a good snowpack this year. Last year I didn’t even put my snow tires on my Jeep. I’m hoping this year will be worth it. Fingers and toes crossed. 🤗


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## 3arabians

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/beast-of-a-bomb-cyclone-is-set-to-wallop-the-west-coast/1035069



I wonder if this will help us. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## MrShane

Yes, it was a joke relating to the 3650% above normal Snotel #.


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## backcountry

3arabians said:


> https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/beast-of-a-bomb-cyclone-is-set-to-wallop-the-west-coast/1035069
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder if this will help us.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


NOAA is saying the Wasatch and Uintas could receive upwards of 2" of water content from next week's snowstorms. They don't normally have such confidence that far out but it's sounding like that bomb cyclone will likely spawn an atmospheric river with pretty serious storms. That would help all of us immensely.

Either way, given how much food we all get from Cali, it will be great for the Sierra Nevada to get a much needed soaking.


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## backcountry

Here is a dorky read on what's heading our way. Sounds like 2-4 waves of atmospheric rivers could ultimately influence precipitation for Utah all the way through the end of next week. Might be time to batten down the hatches. 









Train of Atmospheric Rivers to Blast the Sierra with Several FEET of Snow


Three powerful atmospheric rivers (AR), which are akin to rivers in the sky, will barrel into the Western US in the next 7 days, delivering widespread snowfall as well as much needed moisture to the drought stricken region. This trio of ARs will make a dent in the drought in the short term, and...



powderchasers.com


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## 2full

After tomorrow my cabin will be closed up....
Breaks my heart, I hate to have the season end. 
We are going to Nashville for the weekend, it shows the storms starting before we get back. So I'm not risking it. Will still be able to stay in it, just won't have running water anymore.


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## PBH

October looks really good. Keep up the praying -- remember, waiting until July to pray for rain is too late.


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## backcountry

Trajectory not great. Still some remnant snow from Oct storm on North facing slopes but otherwise it's extremely dry at altitude. Downright scary.


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> Trajectory not great. Still some remnant snow from Oct storm on North facing slopes but otherwise it's extremely dry at altitude. Downright scary.
> 
> View attachment 150486


Yeah, if it doesn’t at least end in an average winter, it’ll be really really bad next summer.


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## Vanilla

What a difference 4 weeks makes!

We need some storms, badly.


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## PBH

scary!


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## Daisy

If you really want to get depressed:



Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook


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## #1DEER 1-I

Daisy said:


> If you really want to get depressed:
> 
> 
> 
> Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook


If their models hold, and they’re usually pretty good, it will be drought like we haven’t really seen as far as reservoir/lake storage. So many reservoirs and lakes are so far below capacity at this point, if we have a really mild winter compounded by a spring like we had last year. Well, it’s hard to think of a time it’s ever been quite so bad.


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## PBH

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Well, it’s hard to think of a time it’s ever been quite so bad.


Well, at least since the 16th century or even the medieval period (900 - 1300 AD). Interesting that many of the Native American's (Fremont, Anasazi) left our area around 1400, due to arid (ie: drought) climate changes.

This might be the beginning of the end for the southwest again.


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## Vanilla

It is fascinating to look at the history of human movements, rather than just the current political narratives. Kind of makes one worried what is to come!


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## PBH

Vanilla said:


> Kind of makes one worried what is to come!


combine the current drought and drought predictions, and Utah's growth rate from out-of-state -- and it just might be time to follow our previous settler's example of packing up and leaving! The question remains: where to go? North Dakota? Wyoming? Yukon Territory?


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## Vanilla

I hear California is nice. Everyone should go there.


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## #1DEER 1-I

PBH said:


> combine the current drought and drought predictions, and Utah's growth rate from out-of-state -- and it just might be time to follow our previous settler's example of packing up and leaving! The question remains: where to go? North Dakota? Wyoming? Yukon Territory?


We could also start using less water per capita considering we have one of the highest per capita water usage rates in America.


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## PBH

#1DEER 1-I said:


> We could also start using less water per capita considering we have one of the highest per capita water usage rates in America.


I'd rather cap growth.

We keep being told that we don't have enough water to water our luscious green lawns -- all the while 3,000 housing units are being constructed. If we didn't build all the new houses, we'd probably have enough water for my lawn.


FWIW -- we are also the 2nd driest states, which would be a really big reason why our water usage is higher. Right? I mean, those guys in upstate New York don't have sprinkling systems to water their lawns because they get much more water per year than us guys in the southwest. So naturally, we use more water.


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## Vanilla

#1DEER 1-I said:


> We could also start using less water per capita considering we have one of the highest per capita water usage rates in America.


I’ve already done that. Significantly less, actually. It doesn’t seem to be helping. 

I do always laugh at that stat on water consumption, as PBH stated, not many people have to water a lawn in the Pacific Northwest. But we shouldn’t worry about comparing apples to apples when that hurts the anti-narrative.


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## MrShane

#1DEER 1-I said:


> We could also start using less water per capita considering we have one of the highest per capita water usage rates in America.


Do the opposite if you want legislators to wake up and stop whoring out our precious Utah.
Not a single drop of water you stop from using is actually ‘saved’, it is reallocated to that new subdivision eating up big game wintering grounds.
To save Utah right now do not ‘slow the flow’.
Flush your toilet twice as much/take way longer showers/and cool your sidewalk down with your sprinklers.
#TruthHurtsSometimes


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## #1DEER 1-I

MrShane said:


> Do the opposite if you want legislators to wake up and stop whoring out our precious Utah.
> Not a single drop of water you stop from using is actually ‘saved’, it is reallocated to that new subdivision eating up big game wintering grounds.
> To save Utah right now do not ‘slow the flow’.
> Flush your toilet twice as much/take way longer showers/and cool your sidewalk down with your sprinklers.
> #TruthHurtsSometimes


Sure. Start voting for new people, as we discussed in the other thread, water laws also need changing.


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## middlefork

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Sure. Start voting for new people, as we discussed in the other thread, water laws also need changing.


#nothappening
But good luck!


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## #1DEER 1-I

middlefork said:


> #nothappening
> But good luck!


I agree, and it's unfortunate. If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always gotten. The makeup of the state legislature has to get under a super-majority threshold of one party before any meaningful change will occur. It doesn't help that many prominent members of the legislature are such pro-develop everything no matter what.

Happy to see some storm in the forecast over next week. Hope it hits the state hard with snow in the mountains that piles up.


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## PBH

#1DEER 1-I said:


> It doesn't help that many prominent members of the legislature are such pro-develop everything no matter what.


prominent? They don't have to be prominent -- just look at local political leaders. It's a natural progression. If you want to develop, you go into politics to get it approved -- or, you get into politics to block an eminent domain claim so that you can develop...

forget political parties, and just vote based on whether or not the candidate is involved in real estate and / or land development.


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## MrShane

And if nothing changes, turn on even more faucets and let it run back to the lakes!
#FightFireWithFire


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## PBH

MrShane said:


> And if nothing changes, turn on even more faucets and let it run back to the lakes!
> #FightFireWithFire











Ivins considers giving stamp of approval for water district to acquire Kayenta land for reservoir


ST. GEORGE — The city of Ivins is considering encouraging the use of eminent domain by the county’s water authority to acquire empty land owned by developers of the Kayenta for the creation of a new reservoir. The dispute has put the City Council in conflict with a Kayenta developer who was...




www.stgeorgeutah.com


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## PBH

that article above is pretty ironic on two fronts:

1. They want to build a new reservoir to hold more water -- even when their existing reservoir is nearly empty due to no water.

2. The land needs to be condemned under eminent domain in order to build the reservoir-- so the current developer that owns the land got himself elected so that he could fight the proposal to condemn the land to make the reservoir.


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## backcountry

Never have I hoped a storm would bring snow more then now. Good gracious it's ugly down here.

All but one another site on the mountain sit at 0-1" of snow.


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## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Never have I hoped a storm would bring snow more then now. Good gracious it's ugly down here.
> 
> All but one another site on the mountain sit at 0-1" of snow.


It has been coming down hard all day, here in Happy Valley. So far, so good. 


How has it been down South?


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## backcountry

Healthy slow rain in town. Snowing on the hill.


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## Vanilla

This storm is moving south. It is headed your way tonight and into tomorrow, I read. Won’t drop as much on you as up north, but is still better than nothing!

I’m interested to see what this storm does for snowpack. It’s early in the year, so a big storm can change things dramatically.


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## Catherder

6 inches of heavy, wet snow at the homestead. Pain to shovel, but great to see. Hope the mountains got a lot more.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Catherder said:


> It has been coming down hard all day, here in Happy Valley. So far, so good.
> 
> 
> How has it been down South?


Light rain all day, snow in the mountains. Snowed in the valley for a couple hours amounting to about a half inch where I’m at. A good storm, hopefully it puts plenty more down in the hills and the one next week can pile a good amount on top of this one.


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## CAExpat

PBH said:


> 1. They want to build a new reservoir to hold more water -- even when their existing reservoir is nearly empty due to no water.


Do nothing, get more of the same. Build now, and you're ready to retain water as we cycle out of dry periods and into wet periods. Utah needs to essentially do the exact opposite of what CA did for decades; as more and more people continue to move in and take away from finite resources, you need to have contingencies in place to hold what water we will eventually get. Utah as a whole will continue to grow for decades; the best time to plant a tree or build a dam was 10 years ago, or right now.


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## Vanilla

Hopefully next week’s storm is another good one. This storm is really helpful, but we’ve still got a LONG ways to go. Some decent progress in most areas, with a lot more needed over the next few weeks to get us caught up


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## backcountry

That's a great outcome. Hopefully we can get more.

Glad we got our Christmas tree last weekend. We had to put our sun hat on our daughter while we walked around on bare ground at 9000 ft. Not the case a few days later.


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> That's a great outcome. Hopefully we can get more.
> 
> Glad we got our Christmas tree last weekend. We had to put our sun hat on our daughter while we walked around on bare ground at 9000 ft. Not the case a few days later.


After a ride to higher elevations, I feel even a bit better about this storm. For one storm in early December it was a good one. A decent base layer no doubt. I’m hoping the storm this coming week can at least put half this amount on top of it (being really hopeful just double it and be the same as this storm), and I’ll feel really good. So long as this storm doesn’t just dissipate and melt in the coming weeks, it makes me feel a lot better. Higher elevations look better now than they did at the end of January last year from this storm alone around the areas I frequent. I’m pleased. This is provided that it somewhat continues.


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## PBH

I'm guessing these numbers are probably 1 day behind? That storm yesterday / last night had a lot of water in it! My place was a muddy mess before it turned to snow (~10pm). This morning it's just an ice ball....


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## #1DEER 1-I

PBH said:


> I'm guessing these numbers are probably 1 day behind? That storm yesterday / last night had a lot of water in it! My place was a muddy mess before it turned to snow (~10pm). This morning it's just an ice ball....
> 
> View attachment 150613


Yes, it takes some time for them to update it, this is what it was prior to this storm. Looks like up north got pounded. The Richfield area got a little bit, not a lot. Hopefully it piled up on the mountains a bit more than the valleys saw from this one. Around here it definitely wasn't as good as the last storm. I do think it will boost snowpack to about normal for now though. Now just a dozen more like this and we might be caught up. I'm actually feeling like my favorite fishing spot might not be completely dried up by the end of July for the first time in 2 years, if this continues so that's a plus.

EDIT
Looks like numbers have just updated, Sevier River basin is sitting at 94% for upper, 91% for lower, so looking decent. Hopefully it doesn't get overly warm in the coming weeks and melt off this nice start base. January and February are where the real hay is made though. With how much northern Utah got in the valleys I'm surprised it didn't boost those numbers more. Most places still sitting at under 70%. 





Utah Snowpack Totals


Utah's #1 source for News, Sports, Weather and Classifieds




www.ksl.com


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## backcountry

Yep, that storm provided some critical moisture.


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## Vanilla

It's amazing how far being the middle of the state still is. 3 more storms in the next two weeks like this one and they would barely be "normal." 

But we have a couple more storms in the forecast the next 10 days. I hope they bring more of the white stuff! (and the wet white stuff, at that)


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## PBH

Vanilla said:


> But we have a couple more storms in the forecast the next 10 days. I hope they bring more of the white stuff! (and the wet white stuff, at that)


Bring them from the south, and we'll get that moisture.


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## backcountry

I can't believe it though...I missed PBHs announcement that the hard deck season started at his private lake.


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## PBH

lol. yep. It froze. probably top to bottom!


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## Vanilla

Posting this tonight before any of the storms roll through for comparison purposes. We are going to get rain/snow 10 of the next 13 days (allegedly). We’ll see where we are at after the new year compared to today.


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## Critter

A friend who has property up at Fairview Lakes posted this picture this morring. 

Snow is hitting the 4' mark on their snow tree.


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## PBH

12/27: Looking good.










The Dirty Devil is interesting. Just a view of the map makes you think it's in trouble, but upon further review, It's not as bad as the yellow appears.









I think I'll have to go for a drive on Friday to see what's happening at Fish Lake.


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## Catherder

PBH said:


> I think I'll have to go for a drive on Friday to see what's happening at Fish Lake.


Be sure to let us know what you find. Fishable ice has been scarce up here.


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## backcountry

Monitors on that drainage have a history of glitching and throwing off the average. No clue why.


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## middlefork

The devil makes them do it.


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## #1DEER 1-I

PBH said:


> 12/27: Looking good.
> 
> View attachment 150702
> 
> 
> The Dirty Devil is interesting. Just a view of the map makes you think it's in trouble, but upon further review, It's not as bad as the yellow appears.
> View attachment 150703
> 
> 
> I think I'll have to go for a drive on Friday to see what's happening at Fish Lake.


It fluctuates quickly. Not a lot of snow falls in a lot of that snow section. One storm or one warm day makes a monumental difference just because of some areas it encompasses. Everywhere is looking decent right now. Now, when will we go from we want water to I hope it doesn’t kill all the deer. At the end of January a year ago I could get all over most places I go. I can’t get close to them by the same method of travel this year, it’ll be nice to see a little runoff this year, because there was essentially none last year.


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## PBH

#1DEER 1-I said:


> It fluctuates quickly. Not a lot of snow falls in a lot of that snow section. One storm or one warm day makes a monumental difference just because of some areas it encompasses.


If you look at the data, the precipitation is above average on those sites, including Fish Lake. It's the Snow Water Equivalent that is showing below average on each site. It does make you wonder, like Backcountry said, if the sites are reporting accurate info. Regardless, this current storm is going to bring everything up.




#1DEER 1-I said:


> Everywhere is looking decent right now. Now, when will we go from we want water to I hope it doesn’t kill all the deer.


What deer??
Bring on the snow. Fish like water.





#1DEER 1-I said:


> it’ll be nice to see a little runoff this year, because there was essentially none last year.


It will be nice -- but if that's going to happen, then I'm going to keep praying for snow!


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## #1DEER 1-I

PBH said:


> If you look at the data, the precipitation is above average on those sites, including Fish Lake. It's the Snow Water Equivalent that is showing below average on each site. It does make you wonder, like Backcountry said, if the sites are reporting accurate info. Regardless, this current storm is going to bring everything up.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What deer??
> Bring on the snow. Fish like water.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It will be nice -- but if that's going to happen, then I'm going to keep praying for snow!


Yeah, it’s very possible those sites just simply don’t report very accurate information. They always sway drastically and I assumed it was just because of some of the areas it encompasses but it does look like all the sites are reporting high % as you say. The dirty devil readings always seem to sway back and forth a lot. And yes I’ll keep hoping for more snow as well. Our soil moisture is in good shape, there’s already more snow in a lot of areas than I saw all winter last winter, so I’m optimistic. As I mentioned earlier I’m looking forward to fishing one of my favorite places this year and not having it dried up by mid July.


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## #1DEER 1-I

This has been the best storm around here for sure, numbers up quite a bit statewide


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## PBH

Catherder said:


> Be sure to let us know what you find. Fishable ice has been scarce up here.


Not much yet. A little on the south end, but getting to it is a problem. You’d need a snow machine.


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## Vanilla

Quite the difference 10 days makes…

Let’s hope that the spring weather doesn’t dry up again this year, or these great storms we got will be for naught. PBH, keep praying for snow! Looks like it’s working.


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## backcountry

PBH said:


> Not much yet. A little on the south end, but getting to it is a problem. You’d need a snow machine.
> 
> View attachment 150767


That's a lot of open water compared to this weekend last year. 

I don't think I'll make it there until Feb but we have a weekend reserved just for it. Can't afford a cabin by the lake but the towns are better for those in our group not inclined to play on frozen water.


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## 2full

It figures the winter I can't snowmobile.......
We get good snow. 😢


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## PBH

backcountry said:


> That's a lot of open water compared to this weekend last year.


It looked like this the next day:


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## PBH

Vanilla said:


> Quite the difference 10 days makes…


It doesn't look like any significant storms for the next 10 days. It will be interesting to see how we look in another two weeks....


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## Catherder

Up here, we are getting pounded. The weather lady just showed todays snowpack map and those northern basins that were slightly below aren't anymore. More forecast for the next 3 days. 

Unfortunately, they appear to be mainly missing the south.


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## backcountry

I'm pretty sure we can view this as the new norm this far south. The big problem is the above average temps and the solar/uv energy gains on the snowpack during such clear, warm periods. 

I always toss out this week as it's pretty reliable to have a 7-14 day warm spell in early Jan down here. But it definitely seems to get more so each year.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Well, snowpack numbers still look okay, but January is shaping up to be a total dud for snowpack. Still need a couple decent storms.


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## backcountry

Yep, our normal 10 days of warm and clear weather in early Jan is lingering much longer. The solar gain in the mountains could prove problematic if the atmospheric conditions don't change. 

Felt like spring in Cedar today. And similar on Panguitch on Sunday, ie warm in sun, immediately cold in cloud induced shade. I actually spent all day in my summer fishing hoody on the ice.


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## #1DEER 1-I

Got about 2” today in a quick little storm. Not showing any difference on the snowpack site really, but a quick little fast and furious storm today. At least it was something.


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## Bax*

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Got about 2” today in a quick little storm. Not showing any difference on the snowpack site really, but a quick little fast and furious storm today. At least it was something.


Better than we got in the SL valley. Had a slight dusting this morning but that’s it.

Snow Packs dropping across the state…


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## #1DEER 1-I

Bax* said:


> Better than we got in the SL valley. Had a slight dusting this morning but that’s it.
> 
> Snow Packs dropping across the state…


It came and left really fast. It was bare ground, then literally 20 or so minutes later a couple inches. Definitely a very spotty storm that didn’t produce much at all for the state, but for some reason it left a little here. If nothing else it’ll melt and add some soul moisture over the next couple days.


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## Bax*

#1DEER 1-I said:


> It came and left really fast. It was bare ground, then literally 20 or so minutes later a couple inches. Definitely a very spotty storm that didn’t produce much at all for the state, but for some reason it left a little here. If nothing else it’ll melt and add some soul moisture over the next couple days.


I’m glad you got some down there. I just hope we get a couple more decent storms.


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## backcountry

Let's hope mid-Feb to mid-April does it's thing. We could really use not only snow but some overcast days to reduce the solar gain and melt in the mountains. It's been too clear.


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## backcountry

Well, it's not going well so far....

I wonder how many years of emergency droughts it will take before my water district and town realize water stewardship here means regulating lawns? We'll be ripping out our front lawn soon, especially since we are putting in a much smaller one in our backyard for our daughter to play on.



> The overall number is approaching the levels at the same time in the disappointing 2021 water year. *At the current rate of decline, 2022 will be behind 2021 by Feb. 17 or 18.*







__





Utah's snowpack reaching 2021 low levels


The overall snowpack level of 2022 so far is approaching that of the disappointing 2021 water year.




www.fox13now.com


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## middlefork

I have a neighbor who's "lawn" has not seen anything but "natures" water for 3 years. As long as he cuts the weeds code enforcement has no problem with him.
I see no reason to spend a lot of money to tear out a lawn. Weeds seem to be natures Xeriscaping.
I can't see a municipality that would enforce a green lawn ordinance with the current and anticipated water availability.


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## Vanilla

If the state gave me 10k I’d take the lawn out from entire side(s) of my house and turn it into an RV pad. Heck, if they just paid for the swinging gate I’d do it!


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> Well, it's not going well so far....
> 
> I wonder how many years of emergency droughts it will take before my water district and town realize water stewardship here means regulating lawns? We'll be ripping out our front lawn soon, especially since we are putting in a much smaller one in our backyard for our daughter to play on.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Utah's snowpack reaching 2021 low levels
> 
> 
> The overall snowpack level of 2022 so far is approaching that of the disappointing 2021 water year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fox13now.com


Legitimately one good storm system is all we’ve had this winter. Yet again, scary stuff.


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## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> If the state gave me 10k I’d take the lawn out from entire side(s) of my house and turn it into an RV pad. Heck, if they just paid for the swinging gate I’d do it!


I just can't believe we are about to drop more than $300 million (they claim $260M but these things never come in at stated prices) for a pipeline but conservation programs are considered too extreme. And they aren't even considering lawn size restrictions on new developments. I understand the theoretical "why" but our water future is pretty stark with our growth and droughts.

I sure hope we get some leadership with real vision soon as we are facing some highly unpleasant choices if we don't.

We very well could still have an average to above average years but these new patterns should be making us all evaluate water based choices.


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## MrShane

backcountry said:


> Well, it's not going well so far....
> 
> I wonder how many years of emergency droughts it will take before my water district and town realize water stewardship here means regulating lawns? We'll be ripping out our front lawn soon, especially since we are putting in a much smaller one in our backyard for our daughter to play on.


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## MrShane

If you think any water you save by ripping out your lawn will magically be stored up in a reservoir for you and your family to drink later, you are on the crack pipe.
Any water you save will just be piped past your home to the next high density housing complex.
I say let it flow to force the issue to slow development.
It will sting a while but are we going to pinch our 
neighbors waterlines so tight until a house occupies every square foot of our beloved Utah.


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> I just can't believe we are about to drop more than $300 million (they claim $260M but these things never come in at stated prices) for a pipeline but conservation programs are considered too extreme. And they aren't even considering lawn size restrictions on new developments. I understand the theoretical "why" but our water future is pretty stark with our growth and droughts.
> 
> I sure hope we get some leadership with real vision soon as we are facing some highly unpleasant choices if we don't.
> 
> We very well could still have an average to above average years but these new patterns should be making us all evaluate water based choices.


Agreed, lawn restrictions and banning of water consuming vegetation?

“MUH FREEDOM!!!!”

A giant costly pipeline to use as much water as we possibly can find from a disappearing Lake Powell: conservatism.


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## #1DEER 1-I

MrShane said:


> If you think any water you save by ripping out your lawn will magically be stored up in a reservoir for you and your family to drink later, you are on the crack pipe.
> Any water you save will just be piped past your home to the next high density housing complex.
> I say let it flow to force the issue to slow development.
> It will sting a while but are we going to pinch our
> neighbors waterlines so tight until a house occupies every square foot of our beloved Utah.


“Let’s bury our head in the sand, those new houses will never go up”


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## backcountry

MrShane said:


> If you think any water you save by ripping out your lawn will magically be stored up in a reservoir for you and your family to drink later, you are on the crack pipe.
> Any water you save will just be piped past your home to the next high density housing complex.
> I say let it flow to force the issue to slow development.
> It will sting a while but are we going to pinch our
> neighbors waterlines so tight until a house occupies every square foot of our beloved Utah.


I hate to say it, but that strategy already lost. Its like trying to stand in front of speeding train to stop it. Development is going to happen in all of Utah and the bigger Wasatch Front municipalities will go vertical. Its just a matter of how fast. The YIMBY movement has the water data on their side when it comes to major municipalities. 

Cedar? Its not going vertical in a major way but high density is already happening. And it has benefits, if done "right". But Cedar cannot keep building big lots with huge turf lawns without real pain given how we are depleting our aquifer. The pipeline proposal only kicks the can so far. 

*Even if we get median* snowpack for most years our belts will be tightening*.

_(*Remember, its a moving target and continues to get lower with each of these historic droughts. Right now its 1991-2020, which means we don't even have the big flood years of the 1980s to counterbalance the drought data. 100% median snowpack doesn't mean the same thing it did 10 years ago. We are in for a world of hurt.)_

Take a look at the data from the EPA. Most of Utah has seen a decrease in snowpack and a major recession in the date of its peak. So has most of the west. That trend doesn't seem to be slowing nor should we think it will.









Climate Change Indicators: Snowpack | US EPA


This indicator measures trends in mountain snowpack in the western United States.




www.epa.gov


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## backcountry

#1DEER 1-I said:


> Agreed, lawn restrictions and banning of water consuming vegetation?
> 
> “MUH FREEDOM!!!!”
> 
> A giant costly pipeline to use as much water as we possibly can find from a disappearing Lake Powell: conservatism.


Cedar has a different pipeline planned for sources to the NW. We opted out of the Lake Powell pipeline a long time ago.

I value conservatism and the benefits it provides. Cedar's unwillingness to adapt its ideals to the realities on the ground doesn't bode well for us. Many things in nature don't bend to our ideals.


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## bowgy

It is interesting that I am asked to conserve water while they continue to allow large developments.

Speaking of Cedar City, there is a new 60 acre development just started at old highway 91 and the Shurtz Canyon / Kanarra Mountain road. They are running sewer and water under the freeway to the south from the landfill communities of Eagle Ridge and Talon point. The land across the Shurtz Canyon road to the east of the new development was just sold to another developer and that parcel is going to be developed. And north of the landfill community of Eagle Ridge the Levitt Group is developing a large parcel between Eagle Ridge and Home Depot. This was BLM and Sitla property.

And that is just to the south. Soon there will be no space between Enoch and Cedar, I will be hard to tell where one city starts and the other one ends.


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## MrShane

But keep ripping out your lawn so that water may be supplied to these new developments.


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## Vanilla

bowgy said:


> Soon there will be no space between Enoch and Cedar, I will be hard to tell where one city starts and the other one ends.


The new Wasatch Front! 

We are in bad shape right now with the water. We desperately need a couple more really good storms this spring or we are going to be a world of hurt.


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## backcountry

MrShane said:


> But keep ripping out your lawn so that water may be supplied to these new developments.


But that's were you are wrong. They build these units without regard to available water. They aren't related via the permitting process. It's truly that simple. And our county and municipality is not going to change that anytime soon. It's antithetical to foundational politics of the region and there is no sign of flexibility there. It's unfortunate but growth is not tied to available resources. Me maintaining or even increasing my use doesn't have any affect on them and ultimately only further depletes our aquifer.



bowgy said:


> It is interesting that I am asked to conserve water while they continue to allow large developments.
> 
> Speaking of Cedar City, there is a new 60 acre development just started at old highway 91 and the Shurtz Canyon / Kanarra Mountain road. They are running sewer and water under the freeway to the south from the landfill communities of Eagle Ridge and Talon point. The land across the Shurtz Canyon road to the east of the new development was just sold to another developer and that parcel is going to be developed. And north of the landfill community of Eagle Ridge the Levitt Group is developing a large parcel between Eagle Ridge and Home Depot. This was BLM and Sitla property.
> 
> And that is just to the south. Soon there will be no space between Enoch and Cedar, I will be hard to tell where one city starts and the other one ends.


Yep, Enoch and Cedar will eventually become seamless. And it's possible there will be strong development from Parowan all the way to Enoch as well. There seems to be no interest in stopping it.

In fact, as you noted, there are multiple power players locally making bank and securing their heirs financial legacy as we speak. There are hundreds of millions worth of potential property development & real estate fees to be made here.

I totally understand why others find it tough to cut back with that reality. I have a family member who moved here into an old home who uses the unlimited car wash and put in extra grass. The drought just doesn't phase many people no matter how much I try to slowly coax them into voluntary conservation (as transplants). My parents might move here as well but I'm hopeful we can get them to xeriscape part of their property. 

And that doesn't deal with the "saturate us with students" mantra of our higher education regents.

The county and city could require all new development to be cutting edge water wise but they lack the vision and interest. My parents asked about water sustainability here and I was brutally honest: we are good for the rest of their lives but we could see serious austerity measures after that if something doesn't change. And I don't think people realize what that can do to not only our quality of life but also property values.

And I keep hammering it home but we are in dire straits even if the average annual snowpack continues to only decrease at the known historical rate.


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## #1DEER 1-I

MrShane said:


> But keep ripping out your lawn so that water may be supplied to these new developments.


The housing developments are going to go up regardless. Stop having 8 kids per family then? Plenty of Utahs growth is from within. So yeah, ripping out some lawns is going to be necessary, because there’s going to continue to inevitably be more and more human beings in the state of Utah not less.


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> But that's were you are wrong. They build these units without regard to available water. They aren't related via the permitting process. It's truly that simple. And our county and municipality is not going to change that anytime soon. It's antithetical to foundational politics of the region and there is no sign of flexibility there. It's unfortunate but growth is not tied to available resources. Me maintaining or even increasing my use doesn't have any affect on them and ultimately only further depletes our aquifer.
> 
> 
> 
> Yep, Enoch and Cedar will eventually become seamless. And it's possible there will be strong development from Parowan all the way to Enoch as well. There seems to be no interest in stopping it.
> 
> In fact, as you noted, there are multiple power players locally making bank and securing their heirs financial legacy as we speak. There are hundreds of millions worth of potential property development & real estate fees to be made here.
> 
> I totally understand why others find it tough to cut back with that reality. I have a family member who moved here into an old home who uses the unlimited car wash and put in extra grass. The drought just doesn't phase many people no matter how much I try to slowly coax them into voluntary conservation (as transplants). My parents might move here as well but I'm hopeful we can get them to xeriscape part of their property.
> 
> And that doesn't deal with the "saturate us with students" mantra of our higher education regents.
> 
> The county and city could require all new development to be cutting edge water wise but they lack the vision and interest. My parents asked about water sustainability here and I was brutally honest: we are good for the rest of their lives but we could see serious austerity measures after that if something doesn't change. And I don't think people realize what that can do to not only our quality of life but also property values.
> 
> And I keep hammering it home but we are in dire straits even if the average annual snowpack continues to only decrease at the known historical rate.


I am not optimistic about stopping development. Local and state governments are all in on development and not resource protections. At some point plenty is going to have to be sacrificed, and development certainly seems the least likely thing any of us can change…..well if people in this state would start voting a bit differently maybe but those blind votes will just keep getting cast.


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## Critter

There is one thing for certain and that is you will never stop development. 

When I moved to the town that I now live in 30 years ago the population was 650, and the town services cost $50 a month. That was for water, sewer, and garbage pickup. Over the years we went on water restrictions due to low snow depth and the amount of water that was available. 

Then the developments started in the old ranchers alfalfa fields to the south of town. A condition for them to be annexed was that they had to deed over their senior water rights to the town. Now with the fields filled with homes we have all the water that we need. Instead of it going into the ground and or down to the river to flow into the Colorado River it is held in water tanks and a reservoir that was rebuilt a few years ago. And the developers keep on building and are not looking back. 

Homes use a lot less water than agriculture does. Will there come a point where there won't be enough water, yes that is inevitable. There is only so much water out there. But you are not going to stop the developments unless your town counsel just says no. But then there goes their tax base for all of the spending that they want to do.


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## Vanilla

The reason why the policies on these topics are so difficult is that none of them are in a vacuum. I don't particularly like all the development either, but can you imagine what the cost of a house in the state of Utah would be in 10 years if we just simply stopped development? What we are paying today is already incredibly stupid and ridiculous, and we would be dreaming of these prices. 

Development, and all it's accompanying problems (including water) is absolutely necessary in one of the fastest growing states in the country. I guess we could pass a law exiling all those who are not at least 3rd generation Utahns and close our borders entirely. Maybe we can build a wall and make California pay for it? 

Sign me up! But none of that will make it snow...


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## MrShane

Vanilla said:


> The reason why the policies on these topics are so difficult is that none of them are in a vacuum. I don't particularly like all the development either, but can you imagine what the cost of a house in the state of Utah would be in 10 years if we just simply stopped development? What we are paying today is already incredibly stupid and ridiculous, and we would be dreaming of these prices.
> 
> Development, and all it's accompanying problems (including water) is absolutely necessary in one of the fastest growing states in the country. I guess we could pass a law exiling all those who are not at least 3rd generation Utahns and close our borders entirely. Maybe we can build a wall and make California pay for it?
> 
> Sign me up! But none of that will make it snow...


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## MrShane

Don’t get me wrong Vanilla, I’m all for controlled/sustained growth.
It can’t be stopped.
But what we have going on now is just a whoring out of Utahs precious resources to those that don’t care about the end product.


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## PBH

the problem with our community stems from the politicians. Every single politician, whether city, county, or otherwise, will all say the same thing: Growth.


Growth means more building, which takes more water. I cannot take any single one of them serious when they talk water conservation, but support the next development.
Rumor has it that the area to the east of Fiddler's Elementary, where they are currently building 99 mutli-family homes (ie: apartments), is slated for another 599 multi-family homes! 

Now, consider that this area is a known flood area (canyon) -- they had to engineer a system to replace the former flood control pond to begin construction of the current 99 units. So, maybe that's the plan for water shortages? Build in a known flood area, replace all the existing dirt with concrete and asphalt so that you can channel all the water down to Sunbow, because they could use the extra water? 



I'm just going to keep my vote to myself until the next candidate runs on a platform of shrinking the economy -- maybe a genesis of Iron County?
It will never happen. Our political offices are all too tide with real estate and development. Why else would you run for office, other than to approve that next big development that you'll financially benefit from?


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## wyogoob

Utah Snowpack as of February 21, 2022






Utah Snowpack Totals


Utah's #1 source for News, Sports, Weather and Classifieds




www.ksl.com


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## #1DEER 1-I

wyogoob said:


> Utah Snowpack as of February 21, 2022
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Utah Snowpack Totals
> 
> 
> Utah's #1 source for News, Sports, Weather and Classifieds
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ksl.com


Storm today here was a complete dud in the valley’s, looks like the Sevier River basin is in better shape than most. Hopefully the next 24 hours dumps in the mountains.


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## CPAjeff

We got hammered in the Basin. Storm called for 2”-4”, but it dumped closer to 6” at my house.


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## Catherder

It snowed all day at work (Happy Valley) and we got about 4 inches of accumulation there. Looks like about 3 inches of accumulation in Springville. Not too bad so far. 

The forecast says the South will get the bulk of the snow on the next wave.


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## wyogoob

Evingston, located in the southwest Wyoming part of Utah, got 1".


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## backcountry

Cedar didn't get a ton but what we did get was very wet snow. We'll take it all.


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## Vanilla

Every little bit helps, but this one didn’t add much to the SWE. Better than nothing.

We need more. LOTS more.


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## CPAjeff

We picked up a couple more inches overnight out here.


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## #1DEER 1-I

It is snowing quite hard right now here. Looks like it should add a fair bit back in the mountains if the weather throughout the night holds as it says it is going to.


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## backcountry

Good 12+" in my backyard. Real wet snow that was miserable to drive in last night. We'll take it 😁 even though Fish Lake ice won't likely be clear now, like I promised my family.


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## Catherder

We mostly just got more wind last night and today. Good to hear the South got a good storm.


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## 2full

9" in my front yard this am here in town. 
Glad I cleared the driveway last night at 10:30 when there was only 6". Made it easier this am. 
Pretty morning !!


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## wyogoob

Nothing but wind in Evingston


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## PBH

2full said:


> 9" in my front yard this am here in town.
> Glad I cleared the driveway last night at 10:30 when there was only 6". Made it easier this am.
> Pretty morning !!



I didn't get close to 9" at my place. More like 2-3. Maybe it all blew to Beaver?

It's snowing again out here at work.


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## CPAjeff

Another couple inches overnight here in the Basin - should be lots and lots of snow now up by the Gorge.


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## Vanilla

This storm has helped, but we need LOTS more the next 30-45 days in the mountains to avoid a pretty devastating water situation this summer. Here is the comparison pre-storm to tonight. It would be a godsend if we can get everywhere into the green by April.


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## PBH

Minersville might fill.


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## backcountry

Forecast was looking uncertain given warmth...but thermometer plummeted & SNOW!


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## Vanilla

Winnemuca to Elko got a nice dropping of super wet snow today. That should help us out a lot. 😂


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## Vanilla

And the drive through SL and Utah counties tonight was ROUGH! Some very wet white stuff hit hard.


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## backcountry

Didn't end up getting a ton but we'll take whatever moisture we can get. I didn't realize SW Utah was doing better than much of the West tracked by Snotel 😲


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## middlefork

You guys might need it.









The new water war of the West has Utah counties in bitter fight


Rural areas of Utah are facing a dire water shortage, and it is setting the blueprint for a western desert conflict.




www.ksl.com


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## Vanilla

We are far from ideal, but if these next two storms forecasted in the next 10 days bring really wet stuff, that will sure help! 

A nice little storm every 6-10 days over the next couple months will be an absolute godsend! Here is to hoping... (and dare I say...praying?)


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## middlefork

March and April being the biggest months for precipitation looking at individual sites gives a better view of what needs to happen to get us "good". For instance Castle Valley needs another 3" SWE in the next month to get to mean.
As fun as the screen shots are they only indicate "to date" comparisons.


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## wyogoob

There was 20 inches of snow on my driveway yesterday.


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## backcountry

Good news is we are better off than last year in most of the state. Bad news is we are approaching my region's relatively new peak snowpack date and not much else really on the horizon. Likely to see the snowpack start to melt out within 7-10 days.

Colorado River basin is looking 80-100ish% of average. I have no clue what that means for Powell when it's this low. 

Take what you can get. I should probably get in as much fishing before July as possible.


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## #1DEER 1-I

backcountry said:


> Good news is we are better off than last year in most of the state. Bad news is we are approaching my region's relatively new peak snowpack date and not much else really on the horizon. Likely to see the snowpack start to melt out within 7-10 days.
> 
> Colorado River basin is looking 80-100ish% of average. I have no clue what that means for Powell when it's this low.
> 
> Take what you can get. I should probably get in as much fishing before July as possible.
> View attachment 151544


I’m pretty certain with the amount of soil moisture we received going into winter, combined with a pretty average snowpack, I’ll at least get to fish a couple places I haven’t been able to for a couple years now in any meaningful way. A few of my favorite little lakes may actually hold water this year beyond June. It won’t make much of a dent in Powell or the GSL. The amount of water needed to replenish some of our large reservoirs and the GSL is an amount of snowpack I’m not sure we’ll ever come close to, let alone for the number of winters in a row it would take to reboot them. Now I am going to hope and pray for a wet spring and summer as well. Winter was just kind of bleh, not nearly what was needed, but good to see it not be a total disaster like last winter was.


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## PBH

so. utah is still hanging in there. While it isn't as much as we had hoped for, it has been better than predicted.


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## Vanilla

The next 6 weeks will tell the tale. And I'm not optimistic. We're going to be hurting this summer.


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## backcountry

Looks like the drought is starting to impact the mafia:









I-Team sources: Body found in barrel at Lake Mead


Boaters discovered a body Sunday on the shore at Lake Mead, sources told the 8 News Now I-Team.



www.8newsnow.com


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## 2full

Would be cool if they could figure out who it is and who did it. Sometimes it takes a while for the chickens to come home and roost. 
Better late than never. 
But, I'll bet everyone involved is probably gone by now.


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