# Crazy Preppers....



## Lone_Hunter

So has the last 13 months or so turn anyone into a Prepper? I already had one foot in the door under the guise of "Disaster prepardness" with about 4 weeks of food and water in case of a natural disaster.

Today my basement looks more like a freaking bunker, and my home office looks like a freaking TOC.

I have to laugh at myself. Never thought id see the day when I'd turn into a prepper. 

Someone once mentioned making a prepper thread. I'm bored, so here's my attempt at starting one. Discuss, or laugh, either way, I get it.


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## Vanilla

I don't think being prepared is crazy at all. I do think that the word "prepper" carries a different connotation with it, however. And it generally is not a positive one. 

The last year has reminded me of encouragement I've received my entire life to be better prepared in case of an emergency or other life circumstance that requires having supplies on hand. I think I'm about 10% better off today than I was at this time last year. I have not done a ton, but have made some progress in little ways. I don't feel like I'm anywhere near where I would like to be or should be, but I'm getting closer to where I can be. (if that makes sense)


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## DallanC

Yea we've talked about starting a thread, its a good idea. I've been in that mindset for 5 or so years now. First step is to define just what you are preparing for, then make a plan to cover that. When you feel good about that step, branch out into areas that cover different situations and needs.

I guess I could post the prep list we have of items... I've emailed it to quite a few people over the past 8 months. So the interest of preparedness is definitely increasing among folk.

I've said it a few times in the past here, I'll say it again. Many years ago I had a conversation with the wife about the most realistic, worst case scenario we could prepare for. The best "most likely" event I came up with is a moderate to major earthquake here during a heavy winter. Heavy snow would make it hard to make utility repairs. Power could be out for 4-6 months. Water and Natural gas lines might be ruptured as well and be unavailable for supply for 4-6 months.

Setting that as bench mark, we planned towards that. Perishable foods in the fridge / freezer are simple, just put bottles of water outside to freeze or cool, place in fridge / freezer. But how could we heat the house? How would we get power? 

Its easier to prep when items have dual use. A good example is a Big Buddy Heater, we use one ice fishing and its worked great without a hiccup... but in the event of a disaster, it can be used to heat the house as its indoor safe. It needs fuel however. 4 or so years ago I started watching KSL and bought a couple 100lb Propane Bottles. They were surprisingly cheap. Propane never goes bad so its a perfect fuel source for prepping. We also have 4-5 more bottles from barbeques, trailer etc for another 100lbs. I made sure to buy appropriate fittings and adaptors so that in the case of emergency, I can hook just about anything to any bottle. I can run a copper pressure line into the house to run the buddy through the dryer vent. I figure we can run it nonstop for nearly 2 months, and double that if we run it on for 30 min, off for 30.

Electricity can easily come from a portable generator, again used for both camping and emergency's. Fuel is a issue... I generally kept about 20 gal of "blue" gasoline around for whatever, this past winter I filled up the trailers fuel station with an additional 35gal. It wont go bad before we can burn it in the spring. Alternatively, generators can get Propane adapter kits to run off propane, but be aware they dont make as much power as off of gasoline.

Make a plan of what electronics need to be powered and what can be skipped. We'll run critical things internally off extension cords rather than try and power the entire house circuits. A Solar panel just doesnt have the power density yet to really do much more than trickle charge up a battery to run some 12v stuff or charge some usb ports. If you had ALOT of panels things change, but they cost about $1 a watt for a panel. Storage of alot of panels is problematic, how would you set them up, what wiring will you need to get the power to the charge controller? What battery bank will you use? An inverter would run a battery bank dry very quickly unless you had alot of batteries totaling 200-500ah of reserve.

So that kind of covers our heat and power plan... for our family at least.  Most things we use year around, so its easier to justify the cost, and also we know they will work if an emergency does happen (ie: Generators)

I do NOT have a bunker in the back yard... nor any plans to make one. But I feel in more than a few ways we're a couple steps beyond the normal prepper. We have a store of antibiotics and some other misc emergency medications. Suture kits, steri-strips, numbing agents, splints, military bandages etc etc. Lots of useful stuff can be had off ebay for cheap (lots of good items come out of Israel of all places that you can't just buy in stores in the USA) .

I'll probably add some stuff later. Maybe post a list of our stuff or something.

-DallanC


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## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> I don't think being prepared is crazy at all. I do think that the word "prepper" carries a different connotation with it, however. And it generally is not a positive one.


I think it's all about perspective. Being prepared for a natural disaster like a hurricane isn't crazy. Society though has assigned a negative connotation to the name mainly because of shows like "Doomsday preppers"; where the got the most batscat crazy people on the show, talking about all kinds of crazy things.

That said, given the events over the last year or so, I don't think people think it's as crazy or looked down upon anymore.


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## Vanilla

I think one can be prepared for a doomsday scenario without being a "doomsday prepper." There is a difference in the mentality that I think distinguishes the two, and continues to make the "doomsday prepper" appear batscat crazy, as you put it. 

Dallan is a guy I respect the heck out of for his ingenuity and I am always fascinated ready the stuff he does. I have been very appreciative of him sharing some ideas with me and we are slowly building supplies. My #1 issue is simply ability to reasonably store the things I want to do. I think you can get meaningfully prepared and set up without taking out a second mortgage to pay for it all, but for me, where I put it is a logistical issue I don't have an answer for.


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## Critter

What ever happened to the old LDS philosophy of having 2 years worth of food in the home? 

As more and more kids grow up and don't want to do the prep work to have that sitting around the time frame has come down. What is it now that they recommend, 6 months? 

It is a lot like when Y2K hit. I worked with a person who said that he planned on taking his work truck home at that time because it had a generator on it and he said that he would use that generator to run his refrigerator. Now this was in Colorado in a location that is 7,000' elevation at the end of December. I told him that running his refrigerator would be the last thing that he should be worrying about. He just gave me a dumb look as that statement sunk into his head.

I had a aunt who went crazy with her one daughter. When she passed away we must of hauled out close to a ton of wheat grain that was plumb full of bugs. She had no way to grind it and I asked her daughter what she planned on doing with it. But then she had some grain that could be turned into flour and get some protein from the bugs that were in it.

It is always good to be prepared with dried food and things that don't require refrigeration. But your need to cycle it along with checking it to see if it is spoiled or if there is a problem with it.


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## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Yea we've talked about starting a thread, its a good idea. I've been in that mindset for 5 or so years now. First step is to define just what you are preparing for, then make a plan to cover that. When you feel good about that step, branch out into areas that cover different situations and needs.
> .....


I've been working/focusing on so many things I'm not even sure where to start.

This is a good book, i'm sure you already have it:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008536NOQ/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

I've started reading this:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/9870563457/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Thus far it has been interesting, and enlightening, as it contradicts some popular trains of thought with first hand experience.

Obviously economic collapse is one item on my "Why I'm prepping" list. I'm a simple man, I don't understand everything in the finance world, but I do know that the debt clock is ticking and the deficit will double within the next 5 years, and something to the tune of 60% of the fiat (M1?) currency in circulation was printed within the last year, if not more. That can't be a good combination.

Currently I've been doing a round robin on the overused "beans, bullets, bandages". We've acutally sunk a lot of money in all three. One of the smartest things we did with the first stimulus check was to buy a harvest right freeze dryer with it. It's been running most of the time, and I need to buy another shelving unit to store boxes of freeze dried food. I find that freeze dried food has a very nice shelf life, tastes about as good as the day it was cooked, but is bulky.

My wife mentioned 100 gallon propane tanks, however the trouble is having a place to store them. A modest 1 story rambler on .14 acre isn't much to work with space wise, but its way better then all these new high density housing units that are now being built with no yards to speak of.

Wintertime power outage is a concern, mainly because no juice means no blower in the furnace. We've got a little buddy heater, and a plan to shelter up in the master bedroom in the case of a prolonged power outage. I know for a fact that room has extra instillation in the walls (including interior walls) because I put it there myself when our house was still under construction about 9 years ago. :mrgreen:

A wood burning stove is on the list. My wife wasn't keen to it because of the "ugly" chimney pipe, but now she doesn't care anymore. (I finally win! ) It's just a matter of having the money at this point.

As electronics go, the only thing we're concerned about is phones and ham radios. Have a Jackery for that, and our trailers generator.

Of the many things i could mention, I'll toss out this. This is actually a good idea, and OnX makes some aspects of it easier.





Which reminds me I need to find the radio frequencies of my local PD, Trunked system or not, I need to add it it to the folder i've got going.


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## Critter

On the radio frequencies of your local PD, highway patrol, and others you need to watch what they have. Local areas are starting to scramble their transmissions because of problems that they have had with lookyloos and others showing up at crime and accident scenes. 

For your propane tank get one and hook it up to your back yard BBQ, then when it gets used up have it refilled. But check on the rules and regulations if you are in a HOA area on what you can have as far as size of tank.


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## DallanC

Prepper step #1, move out of the HOA.

-DallanC


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## Lone_Hunter

https://www.radioreference.com/apps/db/?stid=49

Most are on trunked systems. Any node within a trunked system that has a specific frequency assigned to it you can listen in on. Otherwise, you need a special radio that's more expensive then some hand held.


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## twinkielk15

I like that distinction between a doomsday prepper and simply being wisely prepared for whatever situation comes. Like Vanilla, I'm not anywhere near where I need to be to feel comfortable with whatever may come, but I'm certainly better off now than I was a year ago. And, more importantly, I'm more aware when I see things I need to adjust one way or the other to get to that place.


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## taxidermist

I like to know where the prepper groups live. I can use my arsenal of weapons and ammunition to charge them for protection against possible threats. 

Just like the 30's with "The Families" charging for protection in the neighborhood.


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## Lone_Hunter

Heh, yeah...



That's one item that book I linked to earlier. He said that people in the country got hit hard. The usual thought is to bug out to some mountain cabin or remote property. As it turned out in Argentina that worked against people, as they were far from any help, and the perpetrators had all the time in the world to torture and rape their victims.


Best bet is to form a neighborhood watch and keep people like Taxidermist out. :mrgreen:
I've already planted that seed in my neighborhood.


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## Bax*

As an ex scout master, I had a very clear slogan that I recited to my boys almost hourly:

“Don’t do weird stuff”

What does this have to do with prepping? Nothing. I just wanted you to think about the motto “Be Prepared”


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## taxidermist

Best bet is to form a neighborhood watch and keep people like Taxidermist out.








I've already planted that seed in my neighborhood.

For Rude!!  

https://utahwildlife.net/forum/22-everything-else/204855-crazy-preppers-2.html#


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## Finnegan

Pandemic leading to empty shelves at the grocery store, an earthquake and a wind storm that took out our local power grid for a week - I've definitely been paying attention to preparedness.


We didn't buy an RV for an emergency, but it sure provides some peace of mind. It's always stocked but now we gas up when we get home instead of when we leave. Generator came in real handy this year.

Bought a couple of 25 gal water barrels to stash in the shed.

Bought flour, rice, salt and sugar in bulk. We already had a loaded pantry so we're good for groceries for 6 weeks or so.

Arranged multiple meet-up sites for the family. Our kids are grown and living on the Wasatch Front.

Bought a fire proof lock box for important documents. Added all our passwords and detailed instructions to the kids about where our money is and how to get to it. "Take 4 steps due north of the spruce tree, dig 2 feet deep to find a mason jar." 

Assembled a medical kit (1st aid kit on steroids).
Currently working on beefing up our communications capability in the RV.

That's about it - long ways from the "prepper" category, but not oblivious, either.


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## american_jackal

I wouldnt mind someone sharing a list of items they have included in first aid kits. 

Luckily my wife and I have been on the same mind set since marriage, and have slowly built "preps". A few things we have:

-Enclosed trailer, that is always ready to go, and many of our prep items are stored in it.
-50gal drums with water in them, with silver in them to prevent bacteria and algae.
-We bought some radios off amazon that we tested, and work from AF to Woodland Hills. Keep in both our vehicles, and at the house.
-Also bought BaoFeng radios, that can be used as ham radio, and police scaner.
-20gal of propane for Buddy heater, and a few other items.
-25gal of fuel I rotate through to keep fresh.
-Keep vehicles above half tank
-Over 4 months of food, and its food we actually like, and eat.
-Plan in place with family, and neighbors for support, and to check in on one another if anything happens, ie earth quake or any disaster.
-Family member is medically trained
-We keep a safe stocked with ammo and rifles mainly for hunting, but supplied for any other purpose
-Also keep trailer fuel of propane, and fuel.
-72hr kits in each vehicle, as well as cold weather clothing.

Just an example of a few things we have prepared.


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## Lone_Hunter

taxidermist said:


> Best bet is to form a neighborhood watch and keep people like Taxidermist out. :mrgreen:
> I've already planted that seed in my neighborhood.
> 
> For Rude!!


Well what kind of reaction do you expect when you imply your plan is to run a mafia like racket and extort people for protection.


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## taxidermist

I see the majority of the comments on preparedness is stuffing away food, ammo, water, etc. But what about fuel for the vehicles? Gas/Diesel Fuel doesn't have a long shelf life, but with a little stabilizer one can keep it around for at least a year. 


I worried the new D party would reverse most, if not all the previous administration put into place. That being said, I have a couple fuel tanks I have filled at the lower cost ($1.85 gal. for diesel) months ago. I'll use that when prices reach $4.00 gal. and top it off when needed. Remember the gas wars in the 80's ?


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## PBH

I've done a few of the recommend actions in this thread:

A. Moved out of the HOA. Bought 10 acres. 
B. I'm on my own well. this is a +. This is also a -.
C. Had a bidet installed in the master bathroom. :mrgreen:
D. 500gallon propane tank. Problem is that it needs to be refilled about every 3 weeks.
E. 50gallon drum full of water. It smells like a dead skunk. I guess I shouldn't drown the little basterds if I don't want it to stink like them.
F. I have a couple generators, "blue" fuel, and a couple propane heaters.
G. Seasoning / food. I have 10 acres of sagebrush. So, in the event of a major food issue: instead of tossing the drowned skunks, I'll season them with sage and cook them for dinner. :noidea:


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## middlefork

Nothing wrong with trying to "be prepared". However the more you drill down to the "what ifs", the harder it is to make it work.

Looks like everybody is doing good until it is their house flattened by the wind, nocking down the power lines and arcing, igniting a fire that consumes everything in it along with your gas supply and propane tanks.

I really think fire is the biggest danger there is to survival.


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## Bax*

Question:

How do you look at survival / prepping?

I look at it in two ways:

1- hunker down at home and wait things out. 
2- need to be mobile and constantly on the move. 

Any other types to consider?


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## Lone_Hunter

middlefork said:


> I really think fire is the biggest danger there is to survival.


True that. A fire can wipe you out. Best to not overload outlets, keep a fire extinguisher at several points in the house, and make sure your smoke detectors are working.

As an aside, one thing that the "summer of love" in other states has amply demonstrated, all it takes is one jackwagon with a Molotov ****tail to ruin you. In a civil unrest/riot situation, you cannot allow them to get outside your home. If their in front of your home, its already too late.

This circles back to neighborhood watch. If your neighbor isn't safe, then neither are you.



Bax* said:


> Question:
> 
> How do you look at survival / prepping?
> 
> I look at it in two ways:
> 
> 1- hunker down at home and wait things out.
> 2- need to be mobile and constantly on the move.
> 
> Any other types to consider?


 Only two ways I'm familiar with. Here's the thing, everyone on this forum probably knows that you can't live in the backcountry for very long trying to subsist off hunting. Especially with a family. Unless you turn to looting trailers and cabins like Knapp did some years ago. Game will supplement, but it wont replace what you bring with you, and that will be limited.

Nevermind that all human traffic will be funneled into areas with water. Not elk wallows, but running springs, creeks, and rivers. Imagine the tent/trailer cities popping up in those places, and the ensuing spread of diseases from all the disgusting idiots who don't know how to keep a clean camp, or some dillweed pissing in the water.

My point is, bugging out is an option of last resort. Things would have to be pretty bad to abandon your home and neighborhood. Quick way to turn yourself into a refugee.

No, I totally haven't put a lot of thought into this prepping thing...... :roll:


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## Bax*

Agreed Lone, bugout is definitely last resort. I guess I’m posing a broad question of some other type of prepping. One that came to mind was financial prepping and having cash or some form of currency (silver/gold) on hand in the event of financial catastrophe or ex collapse. 

Any others?


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## DallanC

How about basics. 

How many know where their water main shutoff is? Gas main? Do you have tools to turn them off? Can you fix a ruptured water pipe without a trip to the store? Have some plastic or plywood to cover a broken window in a storm? How many people here keep a spare thermocouple in their utility room? How about saws to clear downfall trees?

-DallanC


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## brisket

Bax* said:


> Agreed Lone, bugout is definitely last resort. I guess I'm posing a broad question of some other type of prepping. One that came to mind was financial prepping and having cash or some form of currency (silver/gold) on hand in the event of financial catastrophe or ex collapse.
> 
> Any others?


One of the first scenarios I think should be prepped for is a job loss. In regards to financial prepping, getting out of debt comes to mind. Paying off vehicles, student loans, credit cards and eventually the house. Getting those monkeys off your back can help greatly in a loss of income scenario by reducing your monthly expenditures. Also having at least 6 months of cash to cover regular monthly expenses to get you through until you find another job.

Going through a couple rounds of layoffs and a pay cut last year was probably the most stressful time of my life (on top of all the covid crap too). If the house was paid off it would have taken a lot of stress away. The goal is to have the title to the house in hand by the end of the year. I don't want to go through that again.


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## hondodawg

It was a perfect storm when it came to garden seeds last year. Inventory was wiped out early on. I’d be willing to say it might happen this year. Plan ahead you gardeners. That also go’s for canning supplies. 


I’m looking for books. Not the online type. How to say grow a garden, or how to maintain fruit and nut trees. Or books on medical/trauma care etc.... you get the idea. 
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## DallanC

hondodawg said:


> It was a perfect storm when it came to garden seeds last year. Inventory was wiped out early on. I'd be willing to say it might happen this year. Plan ahead you gardeners. That also go's for canning supplies.


Yup... we're about 8 months ahead atm. Had the seeds and starts bought or pre-ordered in months ago. Kindof ramping up for canning supplies, lids and pectin etc for next fall.



> I'm looking for books. Not the online type. How to say grow a garden, or how to maintain fruit and nut trees. Or books on medical/trauma care etc.... you get the idea.


Here's a very popular "prepper" style medical book:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/The-Survival-Medicine-Handbook-A-guide-for-when-help-is-NOT-on-the-way-3rd-Ed/392276174465?ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&_trksid=p2060353.m1438.l2649

I'd also recommend finding a Davis's Drug Guide for Nurses. LOTS of info in there, identifying what to use when, and specifics on medications themselves. These are required for nursing staff...and there are always new versions they are required to get, so you can pick up a previous version really cheap:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Daviss-Dru...478508&hash=item3b3fdb91a4:g:jfgAAOSww0Nf-yBT

-DallanC


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## Lone_Hunter

Bax* said:


> One that came to mind was financial prepping and having cash or some form of currency (silver/gold) on hand in the event of financial catastrophe or ex collapse.
> 
> Any others?


I've been wondering what to do about finances. I've been hearing the phrase, "Cash is trash". What has me worried is this:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1
combined with this 4 year projection on the deficet:
https://usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html

Like I said earlier, I'm a simple guy. I don't pretend to understand the finance world, but that much, from my laymans perspective, seems to be cause for concern.

As to diversifying what fiat currency one has on hand, no idea.

On one hand, it's my understanding that even under hyperinflation, your mortgage payment will remain the same. If that being the case, if you lose your income, having a good savings will buy you some time while you sort things out.

On the other hand, the ever famous "wheelbarrows of cash for a loaf of bread" isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

There is always precious metals, but I hear transferring those back into cash is problematic. There's Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, (aka TIPS), but i don't know enough about those yet to make any definite decision. Its also relying more on the government which, is questionable in this day and age.

Anywho, can't quite figure that aspect of financial preparedness out yet.

One thing everyone should be trying to do though, is get out from under credit card debt and the like. For our part, if we pay off my wifes car right now, the only debt we'll have is our mortgage.


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## colorcountrygunner

You guys sound like you know what you are doing. Most guys I know think they are "prepping" because they buy ammo, more ammo, and then even more ammo. A lot of the outdoor hunter types that I know think a survival situation is just gonna be like a 24/7/365 deer camp lol. It's hilarious and kind of mind boggling how simplistic some of their ideas are about how a true SHTF scenario is gonna be. They think we're all just gonna be out there playing Daniel Boone and ****.


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## bowgy

I'm thinking that if it does come to wheel barrow full of cash for a loaf of bread your ammo is going to be worth more for barter than your green backs.


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## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> I've been wondering what to do about finances. I've been hearing the phrase, "Cash is trash". What has me worried is this:
> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1
> combined with this 4 year projection on the deficet:
> https://usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html


The scariest number on that USDebtClock.org website is on the very bottom, I really dont understand why they bury it down there. Its the "Unfunded Liabilities" number, or in other words "Money the US Government owes, but doesnt define as debt". Its a silly distinction, only defined that way because they dont owe the debt yet. Its unfunded though... $158 trillion is the acknowledged amount... but if you research that number a bit more, there are quite a few economists that show proof its actually 2-3x that number.

So really, the US Debt is somewhere around: $28,000,000,000 + $316,000,000,000'ish = THREE HUNDRED FORTY'ish TRILLION DOLLARS. A number so large it kind of stops having meaning.

The only redeeming feature of the US Dollar is that oil has to be traded in dollars only. If the rest of the world ever changes that, the USA is screwed... forever.



> Like I said earlier, I'm a simple guy. I don't pretend to understand the finance world, but that much, from my laymans perspective, seems to be cause for concern.
> 
> As to diversifying what fiat currency one has on hand, no idea.


You really want to be terrified, google "bank bail in". Banks seizing your account money to pay down their own debts. This is also written into the language of alot of bank accounts contracts now. Check your banks contract.



> On one hand, it's my understanding that even under hyperinflation, your mortgage payment will remain the same. If that being the case, if you lose your income, having a good savings will buy you some time while you sort things out.


NOPE. If anyone has a new'ish Mortgage in the past 10-15 years, you better read it. There's a clause in there now to revalue the loan in case of a currency "reset".



> There is always precious metals, but I hear transferring those back into cash is problematic. There's Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, (aka TIPS), but i don't know enough about those yet to make any definite decision. Its also relying more on the government which, is questionable in this day and age.


If cash goes to crap, no-one will be converting gold / silver into money... they will be USING it as money. You want some piece of mind, dont go buy an oz of gold... go buy a $100 face value bag of old silver dimes ($100 / .10c = 1000 dimes). Much easier to use for barter.

Its getting late to get into that though, they are VERY hard to find atm... and the price is $1000 more than they were 10 months ago.



> Anywho, can't quite figure that aspect of financial preparedness out yet.
> 
> One thing everyone should be trying to do though, is get out from under credit card debt and the like. For our part, if we pay off my wifes car right now, the only debt we'll have is our mortgage.


There you go, best idea of all. Get it paid down ASAP, stop paying interest to someone else... put your money into something whereby someone else pays YOU interest. Thats a way more fun and stress free way to live.

-DallanC


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## Lone_Hunter

colorcountrygunner said:


> You guys sound like you know what you are doing. Most guys I know think they are "prepping" because they buy ammo, more ammo, and then even more ammo. A lot of the outdoor hunter types that I know think a survival situation is just gonna be like a 24/7/365 deer camp lol. It's hilarious and kind of mind boggling how simplistic some of their ideas are about how a true SHTF scenario is gonna be. They think we're all just gonna be out there playing Daniel Boone and ****.


Hah hah.

You'll like this post I made on another forum that isn't a hunting forum:



> Why bugging out to Public Lands is a bad idea.
> 
> By public lands, I mean National Forest Service or Bureau of Land management. NFS or BLM for short. Like a lot of other guys in the intermountain west, I spend a lot of time hunting in the mountains. Many call it the backcountry. In my case, I'm usually in the backcountry just about every weekend for most of the year, and most of the time I'm solo, usually chasing Elk. So I think I've enough experience in this capacity to have made a number of valid observations, albeit it is just an opinion.
> 
> In our own thinking, my wife and I had thought that if things were to ever get really bad, we'd load up the trailer and bug out to the mountains somewhere. Over the course of the pandemic, this has shown itself to be an extraordinarily bad idea, and ill try and explain why.
> (some will disagree with me, and that's fine, again this is just my opinion)
> 
> 1. You won't be the only one with that idea. The pandemic and lockdowns has pushed a lot of people out into public lands who otherwise would have been happy in the city. In May, I saw more people in one area in three weeks, then I had in the last 5 years. In July, in another area i frequent, every single camp was used, and some people even making camps where they shouldn't be. In the past, finding a camp was never an issue. ( As an aside, outdoor newbies or greenhorns are really freaking easy to spot)
> 
> 2. Water. Like any other animal, you MUST have water, and you'll need it often. Knowing the backcountry like I do, I can tell you that this need will funnel people into a very few and select areas. You will see trailer and tent cities pop up anywhere where there is a source of water like a stream, creek, or river. Because of this water requirement, your ability to sustain yourself long term will be extremely limited in many areas, and most people will congregate in areas that do have water. If you want to stay on your own, and your not adverse to bushwacking, you can usually find a spring about halfway up mountain watershed areas and random springs, but that brings up other issues ill get to in a bit.
> 
> 3. Your ability to stay will be mostly dependent on what food you bring with you. If you think you'll survive on hunting after you run out of food, your either dreaming, ill informed, don't spend a lot of time in the backcountry, have been watching too many Alaska shows, or your a REALLY ****ing good hunter, or REALLY ****ing lucky.
> 
> 4. Hunting will supplement your food, it may extend the duration of what food you have, but it will not replace it. ( unless maybe your the only humans around for a hundred miles, which ain't happening).
> a.) Elk are migratory, they can be here today, and gone the next.
> b.) While deer are resident, they are super skittish, and one dumbass can spook them all, making it harder for you even if you know what your doing.
> c.) Any piece of land has a carrying capacity. The more humans in an area, the less food there will be to eat. Eventually, any big game such as deer and elk will either be eaten up, or will have moved on. Grouse and rabbit will only get you so far.
> d.) People, by their very presence, pressure big game. Trust me, the instant people move out, the deer and elk move back in and vice versa. They know where people are, period.
> 
> 5. Security will be a bitch if things get really bad. Here's the thing, to bring enough food and supplies to stay for a long duration, your going need to do, what I call "mechanized camping". Meaning trucks and trailers. Said equipment necessitates the use of roads and main easily accessible beaten paths. At some point, without the means of resupply from a nearby city or town, there will be a lack of food, and some may turn to banditry as a result. These camps will be exposed, and security will be an issue that will take both manpower to maintain a 24 hour watch, and field craft in terms of creating a defensible position. These camps will be most vulnerable at night, and a lot of guys know how to move quietly in the woods. You could try "stealth camping" to above mentioned mountain springs, as concealment far off the beaten path is a form of security (usually how I roll), but this method will require backpacking, which by its very nature limits the amount of provisions you can bring with you.
> 
> No matter how you cut it, bugging out to public lands will be a temporary solution. How long you can survive out there before food becomes a major issue will be dependent on how many people are out there, how much supplies you bring with you, if you can resupply from town or not (if you can, why are you bugging out to begin with?), what water is available, and your skill as a hunter or outdoorsman.
> 
> Bottom line, at some point, without resupply, you will eventually run out of food, and you will be nothing more then an armed refugee, or defending yourself from the same. That is the conclusion I have drawn over this last year. Your mileage may vary. As for myself, as much as I love the mountains, I'll be bugging in before I bug out.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Lone_Hunter said:


> Hah hah.
> 
> You'll like this post I made on another forum that isn't a hunting forum:


Haha I do like this post. There's so much that these Rambo/Daniel Boone types don't even think about logistically that I could go on all day. For most of us our best bet is to stockpile nonperishable food, emergency supplies, batteries, etc., and just hunker down. As awesome as it sounds to run out in the woods and play survivalist, it just isn't very realistic.


----------



## Vanilla

Yeah, the whole "bug out" in an RV idea never really made much sense to me. Where you can get an RV is really not all that "bugged out" when you think of it. Just because you are at 10,000 on Skyline Drive doesn't mean you are bugged out. 

There could very well be instances where that RV becomes a lifesaver, I'm not discounting that. But if there is a major earthquake where infrastructure is impacted, how is that RV going to get out of town? It may serve it's survival purpose sitting on the side of your house that is no longer in its same state as you are accustomed to today, however. 

In 2019 I went in and cleared out a bunch of "food storage" stuff we had been gifted over the years. Reality was that it was not going to do us any good. As mentioned earlier, wheat when we don't own a grinder. Things we would have no interest in eating. I have slowly started to replace that with things that would be of benefit to us. Still have a ways to go, but have to solve my storage capacity and form issues first.


----------



## brisket

Lone_Hunter said:


> I've been wondering what to do about finances. I've been hearing the phrase, "Cash is trash". What has me worried is this:
> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1
> combined with this 4 year projection on the deficet:
> https://usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html
> 
> Like I said earlier, I'm a simple guy. I don't pretend to understand the finance world, but that much, from my laymans perspective, seems to be cause for concern.
> 
> As to diversifying what fiat currency one has on hand, no idea.


You are right to be concerned and it'll only get worse with the 1.9 trillion Covid stimulus and the 3 trillion infrastructure packages that are on the docket. Most of this will be monetized by the fed, in other words, created out of thin air.

Look at the historic ways to hedge against inflation, including hard, tangible assets. Things that will hold their purchasing power as the currency looses value. Commodities, precious metals, oil and land come to mind. If you are playing the stock market look at commodity ETFs or commodity index funds, precious metal ETFs, perhaps miners. To really hedge, you need to be in these positions before the inflation registers on the Core CPI, which I believe will start over the next few months. You simply can't print that much money out of thin air without the chickens coming home to roost at some point.

Diversifying into different fiat currencies doesn't make sense to me as all governments are printing like mad. It's a race to the bottom.

I don't see hyperinflation coming anytime soon, but I believe we'll see high inflation this year, possibly on the order of 5-10% by the end of the year. The time to hedge against it is now as once it registers on the government indices the inflation hedges will skyrocket.


----------



## Catherder

There has been some good discussion here. Thank you. 

I don't think I have any major revelatory hacks or suggestions on the subject and struggle like many of us to know what my family should do going forward. However, the recent "uncertain times" have allowed me to grade how prepared we were and suggest some improvements going forward. 


1. Thanks mostly due to my wife's efforts, we had a several months supply of food and basic commodities going in to 2020. We didn't encounter any problems when we had "runs" on different items during the pandemic. We have been able to restock as needed. I also added an additional freezer to allow for more frozen food and game storage. Overall, I would give us decent marks in that department. 

2. Thankfully, we didn't need to use our 72 hour packs or other short term disaster items, but we went through and freshened those up. Our house has the ability to be heated by a wood burning fireplace so that helps. What I don't have and I think I need to change is that I don't have a generator. This I need to change and it will be our next "prep" purchase. The house does have a hookup for it, so at least that is taken care of. Mixed marks here. 

3. Financial. We went into 2020 in decent shape including no debt except the house and I have been busier than ever at work . So no encountered problems. I am grateful for both situations, albeit very tired from employment. There are tough questions still regarding if I should take on a little debt to buy the truck I've been threatening to buy and how much to save, invest, and spend. I guess Ok marks here but lots of personal uncertainty going forward. 


One last quick thought. When many folks talk about "prepping", visions of readying for a "Mad Max" world often come to mind. I do think the recent past has shown us that preparing for somewhat mundane but no less disruptive events like a pandemic, economic downturn, or small scale natural disaster is far more likely to be a productive endeavor than to "dig the bunker" and ready oneself for an apocalypse of some sort.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Garden and raise chickens and rabbits. That's where I'm at right now.. well, no rabbits yet, but it's a future consideration.

The future doesn't seem very promising. About all one can do about it, are practical things like trying to learn how to supplement your own food before inflation and probable food shortages kick in.

Very good chance, the times we are in right now, will be looked back upon as "the good ole days". Having said that, it was nice to unplug these last 6 days of camping and spring turkey hunting. Hard to come back to the doom and gloom.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Lone_Hunter said:


> Garden and raise chickens and rabbits. That's where I'm at right now.. well, no rabbits yet, but it's a future consideration.
> 
> The future doesn't seem very promising. About all one can do about it, are practical things like trying to learn how to supplement your own food before inflation and probable food shortages kick in.
> 
> Very good chance, the times we are in right now, will be looked back upon as "the good ole days". Having said that, it was nice to unplug these last 6 days of camping and spring turkey hunting. Hard to come back to the doom and gloom.


Thats how I feel. I cant help but feel like we have reached the end of a golden age, and things are going downhill now.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

The future is incredibly hard to predict. News sources tend to wax one narrative or another. Personally, I've found former military intelligence analysts, more often then not, have the most correct guesses. I've known of two. One of which no longer posts videos on youtube, but patreon only

Then there's this guy:


https://www.youtube.com/c/ForwardObserver/videos



Go digging further back on his channel, he freaking predicted a lot of the non covid related events that occured in 2020. Keep in mind the dude is running a business on intel, so there's that. 

That said, this is related to prepping, in that good information, or "intelligence" is something prepping related as to make the best inform decisions. I tend to think about 3-4 months out. Bought wood for my raised garden boxes while it was still winter. Had them under a tarp in my backyard most of winter waiting for spring. Today there's a lumber shortage. Bought parts for my rifles to keep them going at the start of the summer riots when most where just thinking about ammo, or maybe another rifle. Ammo I already had, just wish I had more. LOL

Gotta think ahead of the herd. What's going to be in demand tomorrow? That's one thing to think about.


----------



## DallanC

Ketchup. Thats the next shortage apparently.

On a serious note, there are some pretty good indicators that there will be fuel shortages over the summer. A bulk tank with some non-ethanol fuel might be in order. Personally, I keep quite a few gas cans full of fuel, rotate them every few months. We're rotating fuel as we speak, going into last winter I filled the fuel tank on my trailer with 40gal of non-ethanol fuel, starting to burn it up so that we can replace it. Its a bit annoying to rotate, but easier and safer to store as bulk.

Really though... if we're down to shortages of ketchup and chicken wings, everything can be in short supply. Its really no longer a prepper mentality to stock up on things you need, just "prudence".

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

I think that the ketchup manufactures started the rumor that we were running out of it just so that they could raise the prices.  

I was at the store yesterday morning and there was plenty of ketchup on the shelves along with everything else, including TP.

Now chicken wings I didn't see any. Chicken tenders were there but not the wings.


----------



## 2full

If I can't get ketchup...... I'm in BIG trouble for sure.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

From Chicken Wings To Mother’s Day Flowers, Here Are The Shortages You Need To Know About—Plus A Few Gluts


The pandemic has upended global supply chains and disrupted the delicate balance of supply and demand in many industries.




www.forbes.com


----------



## colorcountrygunner

I bought a 20 pound bag of rice last time I was at the grocery store. My wife gave me a funny look haha. Little preps at a time.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

colorcountrygunner said:


> I bought a 20 pound bag of rice last time I was at the grocery store. My wife gave me a funny look haha. Little preps at a time.


If you want to get A LOT of funny looks, go to costco and buy 6 months worth of food (sans the obvious stuff like produce). Call it a leftover effect from covid, but we've taking to going to costco twice a year now. It's just nice to not have to worry about stuff for awhile. If I actually fill a tag or three this year, freezer space might become an issue. 🤣


----------



## DallanC

Has your Costco allowed that? They generally wont allow us to make big purchases like that. Try and get 4 bags of rice, unless you say you are commercial food services and ran of something requiring lots of an item that day, they've told us to put stuff back. We usually have to stock up over a couple days.

Macy's "case lot sales" used to be the bomb for soups and whatnot, but those kindof died off or only have crappy items.

-DallanC


----------



## DallanC

colorcountrygunner said:


> I bought a 20 pound bag of rice last time I was at the grocery store. My wife gave me a funny look haha. Little preps at a time.


Just under 2 bags fit nicely in a 5 gal bucket. Put down some dry ice in the bottom under some paper towels to keep the rice from touching it, sit the lid on loosely. The ice melts, is heavier than air... forces the air up and out. Just hold the lid down and feel the bottom of the bucket. When its no longer cold, seal the bucket. It will store for years in a cool place.

We've used up alot of our staples, getting time to restock on flour and rice... oh and canned sweet corn. Love that stuff.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Has your Costco allowed that? They generally wont allow us to make big purchases like that. Try and get 4 bags of rice, unless you say you are commercial food services and ran of something requiring lots of an item that day, they've told us to put stuff back. We usually have to stock up over a couple days.
> 
> Macy's "case lot sales" used to be the bomb for soups and whatnot, but those kindof died off or only have crappy items.
> 
> -DallanC


I guess. My family is small though. Just myself, wife, and 1 kid. What is 6 months for us will be a lot less then 6 months for someone with 5-6 other mouths to feed. I'll bet if more people start stocking up like that, they'll stop it quick.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

DallanC said:


> Just under 2 bags fit nicely in a 5 gal bucket. Put down some dry ice in the bottom under some paper towels to keep the rice from touching it, sit the lid on loosely. The ice melts, is heavier than air... forces the air up and out. Just hold the lid down and feel the bottom of the bucket. When its no longer cold, seal the bucket. It will store for years in a cool place.
> 
> We've used up alot of our staples, getting time to restock on flour and rice... oh and canned sweet corn. Love that stuff.
> 
> -DallanC


Nice, Ill have to do this. Just picked up another 20 pound bag of pintos.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Here's a question that would have been (and probably still is to some) considered absolutely tin foil hat crazy talk a few years ago:

How much time do you think we have before things go to crap?

I don't think it's a question of "if", but a question of "when?" and "how bad will it be?". I don't think there is anyone who can accurately answer that. It could be something negligible and laughable, or it could be something where the social and economic upheaval will make the great depression pale in comparison. No idea.

My gut feeling is we'll start to see gas and food shortages in the future. Not sure when, or how bad. Could be minor, could be major. No idea. For about a minute, I genuinely questioned the validity of surrendering my panguitch deer tag, as I questioned what fuel prices and availability might be like in September....... and then I went back to studying maps for that hunt. 

Anywho, I guess you can say I am not optimistic about the future.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Lone_Hunter said:


> Anywho, I guess you can say I am not optimistic about the future.


I'm not optimistic either. My wife told me I was a doomer the other day lol. I don't want to watch the world burn and I would love to see my negative predictions be proven wrong. You have to admit that things dont look all bright and rosy at the moment though.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

colorcountrygunner said:


> I'm not optimistic either. My wife told me I was a doomer the other day lol. I don't want to watch the world burn and I would love to see my negative predictions be proven wrong. You have to admit that things dont look all bright and rosy at the moment though.


HEH, I've had similar discussions with my wife. Though she didn't call me a doomer, it was more along the lines of "tedious", I forget the exact wording. We have our 10 year coming up in November, and she wants to do something special; and I'd much rather stay closer to home territory, then go traveling somewhere. One thing I've come to really dislike, is placing my life, and control of my life, into someone else's hands, counting on them to do their job properly, and/or being locked into a situation I can't extricate myself from. Can't we just rent a cabin somewhere for a weekend? Nope, not good enough. Normally very level headed, she picks NOW of all times to get her head into the clouds.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Now the zombie hoards are making a run on bottled water again. My wife was at our little Walmart neighborhood grocer last night and the bottled water section was wiped out! She talked to her sister down in Sanpete County and it was the same story there. After I donated plasma tonight I was curious about the situation, so I poked my head in Costco. They had a decent amount, but they had a sign up limiting each customer to 5 cases. That little trip to Costco to look at water ended up being a $200 stock up trip in various items. The wife and I are making good progress on preps. If/when a real food shortage hits I don't wanna be fighting it out like animals with a bunch of desperate people for the last remaining scraps on the shelves. Farmers market in Spanish Fork starts next week. We will be picking up lots of stuff there this year and get busy canning. Then of course you know the other food gathering event that will come shortly after that!


----------



## DallanC

Drought in the west all the way to Washington affecting crops, Grasshoppers are out of control in Idaho and Wyoming eating whats left, and recent massive storms just destroyed 90% of farm crops in the midwest in a few areas.

Just say'n... be aware of whats going on. Food prices next year may cause some serious heartburn for folk living on the edge.

-DallanC


----------



## colorcountrygunner

DallanC said:


> Drought in the west all the way to Washington affecting crops, Grasshoppers are out of control in Idaho and Wyoming eating whats left, and recent massive storms just destroyed 90% of farm crops in the midwest in a few areas.
> 
> Just say'n... be aware of whats going on. Food prices next year may cause some serious heartburn for folk living on the edge.
> 
> -DallanC


Yep. But unfortunately most folks will be caught with their pants down.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

colorcountrygunner said:


> Now the zombie hoards are making a run on bottled water again.
> ...
> We will be picking up lots of stuff there this year and get busy canning. Then of course you know the other food gathering event that will come shortly after that!


Personally, to one degree or another, I expect a repeat of last year when it comes to the grocery store, and/or a huge (crippling for some) increase in cost of food.

Reasons:
- The coof is following the same trend this year as it did last year. It may even become greater in prevalence
(see latest numbers and compare this year to last year. Case Counts | coronavirus )
Thats not to say people will react the same, but if there is enough fear and panic being stoked, they will react.

- For reasons along the lines that Dallan posted. Food prices are most likely going to go up. There is no way we can have the biggest heat wave and draught in 50 years, and have it NOT effect food production. End of year harvest yields will be the biggest indicator I think.

- Economics. The most colorful metaphor I can think of, is America has been shat into a big toilet called inflation, the powers that be flushed it, and now we are spiraling down toward the drain. Not that I'm an economic expert, I'm just a layman, and everything I've seen and heard indicates this.




DallanC said:


> Drought in the west all the way to Washington affecting crops, Grasshoppers are out of control in Idaho and Wyoming eating whats left, and recent massive storms just destroyed 90% of farm crops in the midwest in a few areas.
> 
> Just say'n... be aware of whats going on. Food prices next year may cause some serious heartburn for folk living on the edge.
> 
> -DallanC


I'd give this a like, only I don't like this situation.

On a side note, my wife has already encountered, what seems to be food shortages. Just on very select items, so it's probably going under the radar. We just harvested a ton of tomatos, and other bits in our backyard garden. Decided to make salsa out of it and freeze dry it. Problem was our cilantro bit the dust. So wife goes to the store to buy cilantro. Couldn't find it anywhere. No seller of produce in town had it. I think we're going to see more of that in the future, how much I couldn't guess.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

For some reason I feel compelled to encapsulate 90% of the prepper stuff you'll find on streaming media:

Beans, Bullets and Bandages.

Gets thrown around a lot, makes it easier to remember.

*Beans*:

Shelf stable food. (Don't forget your food groups)
Water. ( General rule of thumb: 1 gallon, per day, per person. Minimum.)

*Bullets*: (probably something few here are in short supply of, and the thing most people focus on)

Firearms, and spare mags. (ideal number per rifle i'd say would be 9 mags, 6 +1, and 2 spares. YMMV)
Ammo ( I forget the exact number, but its something to the tune of have at least 1400- 2000 rounds cached per rifle)
Spare parts. ( because firearms are mechanical, and anything mechanical can break)

*Bandages:*

First aid ( for ouchies, boo boos, and other minor things not worth crying about)
Trauma (israli bandages, quick clot, chest seal, CAT tourniquets, and other things that exist to "stop the dying")

Yes, it's all expensive. No your not going to acquire everything right away.

Rule of 3's.
Get enough of your "Three B's" for:
- 3 days, then 3 weeks, then 3 months, etc etc. Start small, expand out. Something is better then nothing.

There, I just saved you a lot of reading/ video watching.


----------



## DallanC

Add some SAM splints to your first aid kit. Last year we made a first aid bag to throw in the ATVs / boat whatever to handle moderate injurys. I found out about SAM splints and they are mighty useful if someone breaks a limb, and rolled up they dont take much space. 

SAM:








SAM® SPLINT - ORIGINAL 36" - ORANGE/BLUE ROLL | eBay


The SAM SPLINT can be used to splint every bone in the human body.



www.ebay.com





I also added some sutures to our home kit. Hopefully we never need any of if, but I'd rather have the stuff and never need it than need it and not have it.

-DallanC


----------



## DallanC

It just snowed... in Brazil. First time in 64 years, a massive cold snap. Agriculture is being dramatically affected. Coffee and Sugar prices already jumped in price.










The whole world is being scourged it seems. Time to add some more food storage.

-DallanC


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Did some "prepping" today. You know...just in case. 500 rounds of .223 and 1,000 rounds of 9mm. First ammo I have bought in awhile. Seems like this stuff is starting to come back and it more sensible prices.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I'd buy a few spare parts, nothing major, just the stuff that wears out over time like recoil srpings and the like. I did a bit more then that on the spare parts front, but I think you get the idea. Also have some rig to carry spare mags, oh and buy some of those too. oh hell, getting gun stuff is always exciting.  (edit: current market not withstanding, I honestly don't know how it is right now, haven't looked since early 2020)


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Lone_Hunter said:


> I'd buy a few spare parts, nothing major, just the stuff that wears out over time like recoil srpings and the like. I did a bit more then that on the spare parts front, but I think you get the idea. Also have some rig to carry spare mags, oh and buy some of those too. oh hell, getting gun stuff is always exciting.  (edit: current market not withstanding, I honestly don't know how it is right now, haven't looked since early 2020)


I bought another magazine as well. I have a soft case for my AR-15 (or AR-14 as sleepy joe would call it) with a bunch of compartments for spare mags on it. So far I only have enough mags to fill half of the compartments. Better get some more.🙂


----------



## Lone_Hunter

colorcountrygunner said:


> I bought another magazine as well. I have a soft case for my AR-15 (or AR-14 as sleepy joe would call it) with a bunch of compartments for spare mags on it. So far I only have enough mags to fill half of the compartments. Better get some more.🙂


If your on a budget, I would get something like this:









Just throw it over your shoulder and go. Gives immediate access to extra pew pews to make holes, trauma kit to plug holes, doesn't look too tactical or military (thereby making you look "loud" and become a focus of attention), and it's not that expensive.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

This guy seems to be one of the more informative prepper channels on youtube. Since I'm guessing most of us don't live on a farm or ranch, but in a suburban neighborhood somewhere, I don't think it's a bad channel to follow.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Lone_Hunter said:


> This guy seems to be one of the more informative prepper channels on youtube. Since I'm guessing most of us don't live on a farm or ranch, but in a suburban neighborhood somewhere, I don't think it's a bad channel to follow.


I'll have to check him out. Over the weekend I did Dallan's suggestions of using dry ice in a 5 gallon bucket for storing dry goods and I got a good amount of pinto beans and rice put away.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Made some pemmican too! Shelf stable for years.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

colorcountrygunner said:


> Made some pemmican too! Shelf stable for years.


I need to do that.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Lone_Hunter said:


> I need to do that.


It's incredibly simple.


----------



## DallanC

5gal bucket of food grade rock salt and you can cure all kinds of meats for storage.

-DallanC


----------



## CPAjeff

colorcountrygunner said:


> Made some pemmican too! Shelf stable for years.


What recipe did you use?


----------



## colorcountrygunner

CPAjeff said:


> What recipe did you use?


With no game meat in the freezer at the moment we had to use a lean beef roast with the fat trimmed off. We dried this in a dryer for 24 hours then blended it into a fine powder in a food processor. With some beef tallow we ordered off amazon we heated up beef tallow that was equal in weight to the pre-dried beef and once it was melted into liquid form we mixed together with the powderized meat, then put the mixture into a shallow muffin tin to set up which turned into nice little puck-like pieces of pemmican. There was absolutely no other ingredients in the first batch besides the dried beef and the beef tallow. My wife made a second batch with salt in it, but she says she over salted it. I haven't tasted it yet, but if my wife thinks it's too salty, I will probably think it is just right. I would like to do another batch with some kind of dried berries mixed in.


----------



## DallanC

Interesting. I've never had good luck with tallow not going rancid over time. Keep posting the results though, its very interesting.

-DallanC


----------



## colorcountrygunner

I was wondering about the tallow going rancid myself. According to the recipe it is supposed to stay good. Guess I will have to open one up from its food saver bag periodically and give it a smell and taste test.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

In my personal opinion, part of prepping, is staying aware of the current situation, which seems to be changing rapidly. It's hard to stay abreast of everything. I just barely started a subscription to a daily report compiled by former military intelligence analysts who thought it was a great idea to start a news feed as a business. Given the unreliability of today's media, not a bad idea.

Here is one such report. How accurate the info is, you decide. I'm just trying it out for a month. ($10 ). They email you the report, you can read they daily report on their website, and they do a live feed every morning going over it along with Q&A. I'm tired of chasing current events trying to figure things out, it's driving me to drink. Literally. So I figure i'd try this out. Seems concise, and saves a lot of time. I'm thinking it's worth the money, how long i'll stay subscribed, I dunno.

If your interested, here's their website:








Forward Observer


Threat Intelligence




forwardobserver.com






------------------------------------------------ 


*Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 12 August 2021.


TODAY’S BRIEFING:*

_Situational Awareness_
_States prepare for court_
_Biden asks for gas_
_Debt default betting_
_New ICE rules for victims_
_Major port shutting down_
_In Focus: Economic update: Housing, inflation, crash ahead?_

*SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

SHUTDOWN*: President Biden and Congressional Democrats believe their debt limit strategy will succeed. By not including the language in yesterday’s budget bill, Republicans will be forced to support an increase or shutdown the government in late October. Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) said 46 Senators will not increase the debt limit if the “human infrastructure” package succeeds. (_Analyst Comment: Democrats want a new debt agreement as continuing resolutions would maintain many Trump-era spending policies. Republicans are seeking leverage by blaming a potential shutdown on the party in power. Another round of government shutdowns communicates to the world, America is in decline. – D.M._)


*NINGBO*: All operations at China’s Ningbo Meidong Container Terminal have been suspended. An outbreak of COVID-19 is credited with eliminating 20% of the port’s capacity. Ningbo is the third-largest container port in the world, dwarfing the Yantian closure in June. Cargo vessel operators are warning customers of expected delays as ocean freight remains stressed. The closure occurred for a single positive test, the Chinese government and many Southeast Asian countries are closing facilities for similar reasons. (_AC: Logistics experts are warning of continued disruptions in the fall and winter as forced closures cause immediate impacts in moving goods around the globe. – D.M._)


*CALIFORNIA*: California now requires all teachers and school staff be vaccinated or agree to regular testing. The move follows weeks of public lobbying by teacher’s unions to require vaccination for adults in schools. Some states like Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Utah banned local requirements for masking or vaccination, setting up a series of legal challenges across the nation. The policy conflicts may invoke federal action as unions are lobbying actively for intervention. (_AC: The President singled out Florida and said his administration is looking into legal options to overturn mask mandate bans. Previously, the White House acknowledged that it didn’t have Constitutional authority to extend the eviction moratorium but did it anyway. – D.M._)


*GAS*: In an appeal to OPEC+, President Biden asked the oil producing nations to increase their production to reduce fuel prices in the United States. OPEC+ will meet at the beginning of September to consider raising output from 5.8 million barrels per day to 6.2 million. President Biden maintains the U.S. will be “decarbonized” by 2050. (_AC: The increased fuel prices are leading some nations, like Russia, to propose stopping gasoline exports to stabilize domestic prices. The cancelled Keystone XL pipeline would have delivered 630,000 barrels per day from Canada. – D.M._)


*IMMIGRATION*: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are suspending deportations for illegal immigrants who become victims of a crime. In directive release 11005.3, the agency said they will take a “victims centered approach” and allow noncitizens access to legal resources. If a noncitizen is identified as the victim of a crime, but is not receiving legal assistance, ICE officers should “exercise discretion, including but not limited to release from detention.” (_AC: The change includes trafficked persons, accounting for a substantial number of the noncitizen population which ICE is encouraged to release. This non-interference and legal support expands the administrative pathway for the eventual legalization for illegal immigrants. – D.M._)





*HAZARDS WARNING


HURRICANE SEASON*: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to bring rains to Florida by Friday. The National Hurricane Center expects flooding and rapid river rises across southern Florida and tropical storm conditions in the Keys throughout the weekend.









*InFocus: *_Economic update: Housing, inflation, crash ahead?_


St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard is “moderately concerned” that a housing market bubble is materializing. “We did see rapid increases in house prices” driven in part by low inventory, he continued. Bullard believes that the Fed’s asset purchase program is not “the wisest policy” because the Fed’s goal is to lower long-term interest rates, which includes lowering mortgage rates, which means more buyers. The housing market “is a very interest-sensitive sector so we are feeding into an incipient housing bubble,” he warned.









Here’s the updated chart showing Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees versus the Purchase Only House Price Index. There’s clearly a bubble here, accelerated by the Fed’s $40 billion monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Many hedge fund managers and asset analysts have opined on similar conditions for the broader stock market. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said this week that he can foresee himself “supporting announcing a reduction in the pace of our purchases later this year” if unemployment and economic strength goals are met. San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly also stated the Fed could begin tapering “later this year or early next year.” Clarida indicated that the Fed’s tapering of monthly purchases, which includes an additional $80 billion per month of bond buying, will put downward pressure on prices. In short, the Fed is waiting on a couple more months of jobs data to make a decision on tapering.


Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index for July came in at an annualized rate of 5.4% for the second month in a row, while the Producer Price Index is up 7.8% year over year. This is getting pretty close to the runaway inflation scenario of the late 1960s. I’d refer to last week’s warning from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that the Fed will risk a recession if they “slam on the brakes” to combat inflation.


Lastly, John Hussman from the Hussman Investment Trust wrote an interesting article entitled “The Folly of Ruling Out a Collapse.” Hussman has been a vocal advocate that U.S. markets are headed towards a crash, previously pointing out that similar conditions exist today as did in 1929. “Presently, we are at the most optimistic point of the most overvalued market bubble in the history of the nation. The S&P 500 is at a rare point of overextension relative to its 40-week and 200-week averages, _in the context of deterioration and divergence in our key gauge of internals_, indicating that the market is dangerously narrowing, in a way that reflects emerging risk-aversion,” he concludes. In other words, speculative bubbles are driven by indiscriminate investing, which may be coming to an end given today’s extreme valuations.


Whether Hussman is right that we’re awaiting a 1929-style crash, he does echo sentiment that I’ve seen from numerous other hedge fund and asset managers. This has previously been described as “picking up pennies in front of the steamroller,” as investors are trying to squeeze every last percent of return out of the longest bull run on record. My best guess is that the Fed’s announcement to taper later this year or next will end some enthusiasm, and quite possibly signals the end of an era.


Hussman quotes legendary investor Benjamin Graham, who pointed out it took markets 25 years to recover from the Crash of 1929. In other words, “[T]he Dow Jones Average sold at the same high point in 1919 as it did in 1942 – 23 years later.” And that’s the real problem with today’s valuation. The higher the return today, the lower the return in the future. Crash or not, today’s extreme valuations are likely setting investors up for lower returns this decade. – M.S. 


You can read Hussman’s article here: The Folly of Ruling Out a Collapse


_The information provided by Forward Observer in this report is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. You should consult with a financial advisor to determine what may be best for your financial needs._





— END REPORT


M.S. indicates analyst commentary from Mike Shelby
M.B. indicates analyst commentary from Max Baer
D.M. indicates analyst commentary from Dustin Mascorro


----------



## DallanC

KSL article calling it out. Its starting to get noticed.









Get used to surging food prices: Extreme weather is here to stay


Extreme weather is creating nightmares for farmers around the world — and making food more expensive for Americans. Experts say this will continue.




www.ksl.com





I've heard some very concerning news as well from the parent company that owns Kroger and Albertsons. 

-DallanC


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## DallanC

China just shut down the worlds 3rd busiest port due to covid flare up's. More supply chain squeeze on top of the last supply chain squeeze.

-DallanC


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## colorcountrygunner

That KSL article is pretty grim. Hit up the farmers market and made some hard tack today.


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## 2full

I'm going to invest in tin foil.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Anyone else notice price increase or shortages yet? I haven't done a comparison on stuff (old vs new prices), but it feels like things are getting a little more expensive. A little here, an little there, but when your buying a bunch of stuff it adds up quickly.

We've been doing our Christmas shopping now. Almost done with it in fact. From everything i've heard, you might see some shortages soon when the masses start doing their traditional holiday shopping. So we've been trying to stay ahead of the curve. The port situation, and the hiccups in the JIT inventory system probably isn't going to resolve itself anytime soon. If there's anything in the way of "preps" (equipment, tools, etc etc) that has been on your mind, maybe get them sooner then later. 

As an aside, I've heard of bare shelves in other states, but haven't seen it here. That said, the ammo situation at sportsmans is pathetic. What used to be two full isles, is now condensed into barely 1/2 an isle.

edit: This was as of Oct22, dunno if the situation has changed or not since then:



> *LOS ANGELES*: The Port of Los Angeles continues to struggle with the volume of cargo vessels arriving daily. More than 100 container ships are anchored around the port, many continuing to wait weeks for unloading with international crews restricted to their vessels. Over the summer, 30-40 vessels anchored at a time was considered overwhelming and having direct impacts on consumer product availability. Despite expanding port hours, midstream logistics and lack of warehousing prevent meaningful progress in reducing supply chain bottlenecks. (_AC: The holiday shipping season is effectively over, meaning the hundreds of remaining vessels inbound with cargo have little chance of getting a product to consumers before Christmas celebrations begin. Separately, food retailers are reporting the rapid inflation and non-food product impact to shipping risks upending traditional Thanksgiving and Christmas meal preparations. – D.M._)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .


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## Critter

I haven't see to much of a problem here in Colorado but prices are definitely up from two years ago and even last year as far as grocery store items are concerned.

I was watching a show yesterday and they were talking about possible shortages for presents or items for Christmas this year and they just plain said that if you see it now to buy it if you want it. 

I have done some online looking the last couple of days for a few things and most of what I am looking for is not in stock, quite likely it is sitting off of the California coast.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

It's not Glenn Beck you want to listen to, it's the former CEO of Toyota you want to listen closely to.





On a side note, I just ponied up the cash for 250 rounds of 12 Ga #7 1/2 to add to my existing stores. I predict a lot fewer big game tags and more upland game hunting in my future. I'd get anything you'd need sooner then later. Who knows what this crap is going to look like next year. Could be better, could be worse, why chance it.


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## wyogoob

Lone_Hunter said:


> So has the last 13 months or so turn anyone into a Prepper? I already had one foot in the door under the guise of "Disaster prepardness" with about 4 weeks of food and water in case of a natural disaster.
> 
> Today my basement looks more like a freaking bunker, and my home office looks like a freaking TOC.
> 
> I have to laugh at myself. Never thought id see the day when I'd turn into a prepper.
> 
> Someone once mentioned making a prepper thread. I'm bored, so here's my attempt at starting one. Discuss, or laugh, either way, I get it.


I have 3 string trimmers so I'm ready for any calamity.

What's a "TOC"?
TABLE OF CONTENTS?
TIM'S ON COCAINE?
TIM'S ORANGE CARROTS?
TIM'S OUT of CONTROL?


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Oh, former service jargon. Tactical Operations Center. I've got a huge map of Utah on my wall that I can write on with dry erase markers, as well as maps of the city and surrounding area, bunch of mobile ham radios , charging station, Jackery power station, a folder with a study of my local area, that kind of stuff. Basically everything i'd need to make an assesment of the local situation and communicate with others if things went bad.


----------



## DallanC

Saw an article last night the Chinese government is telling their folks to stock up on food and supplies. Can you imagine the effect on availability if they start stockpiling in the homeland before it gets shipped out.

It certainly feels like something ugly is coming.





__





china telling people to store food - Google Search






www.google.com







Lone_Hunter said:


> On a side note, I just ponied up the cash for 250 rounds of 12 Ga #7 1/2 to add to my existing stores. I predict a lot fewer big game tags and more upland game hunting in my future. I'd get anything you'd need sooner then later. Who knows what this crap is going to look like next year. Could be better, could be worse, why chance it.


Ya, I bought a case of 12GA #6 earlier in the year. I waffled on it for quite a while before committing. BUT, since then, prices have risen dramatically, and local availability is still scarce. I'm happy I did it right now.

-DallanC


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## middlefork

How this Utah company turns cars into fortresses


Armoring everything from trucks to commuter cars, Armormax of Ogden has become a worldwide leader in armored vehicles.




www.ksl.com


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## colorcountrygunner

Shared this one in the memes thread in the humor section, but it feels like nothing but bumpy roads ahead. Anybody really starting to feel the pinch at the grocery store? Maybe us prepper freaks will end up getting into the food storage we so diligently put together.


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## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> How this Utah company turns cars into fortresses
> 
> 
> Armoring everything from trucks to commuter cars, Armormax of Ogden has become a worldwide leader in armored vehicles.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ksl.com


If you can afford this on your vehicle, then nothing we’re talking about here is impacting you! I know Mark. He’s good people. 


The supply chain issues are fascinating to watch just from a logistics standpoint, but maddening to see happening from a consumer standpoint. Everyone keeps predicting “one more year of this or that,” except it’s not just time that’s needed to fix what’s causing it. We may be resetting to a new normal of supplies simply being short all the time.


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## middlefork

I no longer need to follow the "supply chain" issue as closely as I used to. But I will say the port issue has been a problem long before the pandemic. Now they just have a different excuse.


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## cowboy

I guess I’m a prepper and didn’t know it. Raise a big garden every year and bottle or freeze a lot of it. Just put a beef and a lamb and a hog in my freezers. Already fully stocked on flour and yeast to make bread for a long while. We buy a fifty pound bag of Anasazi beans in Dove creek Colorado every year. I think it’s my upbringing on the ranch. Out where our cabin is and my mother was raised we still have no power unless we run the generator and no phones. In 1947 my grand parents and their four daughters were snowed in from December 3rd through Feb 7th. Never left the ranch except to feed cows and horses. When the county sent out plows to reach all the stranded ranches grandpa jumped up on the running board and and asked if they had brought any Prince Albert tobacco. 😁 They still had plenty of food and necessities but he has run out of makings for smokes the week before.

I sell beef, lamb and pork direct from our ranch to families all over Utah and several other states. I control what they are fed, how fat they get, what vaccines and antibiotics they get or don’t, wether they are given a hormone implant and a few other important details. Calves born and raised and fed by me are sent to the butcher who guarantees my customers get my beef. The calves I sell at weaning get out on a truck and go to Idaho or Nebraska to a feedlot. Then they get trucked again to a finish yard. Then back on the truck to a processor where they are butchered. Then shipped as boxed beef to distributors who then ship it to grocers or restaurants. Now you can see why a steer I sell for $1.65 a pound as a 580 weight live animal ends up costing the consumer $22 a pound as a ribeye steak. The weak link in my direct market approach is I do not have capacity to feed Salt Lake or St George. Huge feed lots and processing facility’s and distribution centers are necessary to feed the population on that scale. And when one part of the supply chain breaks it all jams up. I don’t not see it improving soon. And with the feds involved it will even take longer. My advice to my kids and yours, is to be as self sufficient as possible. Do not allow others authority over what happens to feed and clothe you family. Be prepared.


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## TheOtherJeff

Cowboy, I'm with you. It kills me on a number of levels that I had to sell my house in a divorce a few years back, this among them. I had the entire front yard and most of the side yard of a corner lot given over to veggies. I could go all year on the tomatoes I canned, by August I was so sick of zucchini that you couldn't pay me to pickle them, and I'm still using chiles I dried a couple of years ago. And that was in the middle of SLC. I did it mainly so that my land wasn't just the thing my house sat on, but having the reserve capacity sure was nice.

A just-in-time economy is like driving a Formula 1 car. It's great fun when everything is running well, but the slightest problem and you're stuck in the pits. There's just no slack in the system to absorb problems.


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## Lone_Hunter

I just had to bump this thread. I want to say, that "never in my life, did I think things would get this crazy", but the truth is, i've had a feeling in my gut that something bad was going to happen for awhile, and I'm not talking about Ukraine. That I think is the first domino as it were. We'll see how that turns out, cause I think how that turns out, will play a factor in Taiwan, which will in turn have an effect domestically in terms of economic, social, and political.

The short of it is, and I admit I'm no policy expert nor economist, I think we all have a ring side seat to the (slow?) decline of the "American empire" , the petro dollar, and the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. All major powers in history are eventually dethroned. Look at the British, they used to say "The sun never sets on the Britsh empire". Not so much now.

Anyway, for what it's worth, things I think aren't a bad idea to do right now:

1. Pay attention to the news, but don't drive yourself crazy. Find alternative sources you trust, often enough you'll know about stuff a day before it hits the mainstream news. Lots of disimformation out there, and I don't mean that in a left vs right thing, but as a "wartime" propaganda thing. Side note: Normalicy bias. Generally speaking, things haven't exactly been normal since 2019. We've gone from pandemic, to missile strikes being 9 miles away from NATO invoking article 5.

2. Buy a little extra every time you go to the grocery store and store it. Bag of rice, extra coffee, a few cans of chilli, whatever floats your boat.

3. Ammo and misc equipment, buy it now while you can. Honestly, as ammo goes, local supplies suck. I highly recommend midwayusa or luckygunner. Just got 5 boxes of 180 Gr 10MM FMJ in today, can't find the crap at sportsmans in provo, Just sayin. In fact, I literally bought the last two boxes of 10MM from there last week, unless they got more in, they are out.

4. Stuff your mattress, or your gun safe really, with enough cash to buy gas and groceries for at least a month if you can. I'm looking at you Canada, but also cyber attacks are a real threat, and if the POS system gets taken down, or the banks get downed, having cash will be a godsend.

5. Garden and raise chickens and other livestock if you can. Will offset the cost of groceries or possible shortages in the future.


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## middlefork

I grew up with fire drills and then came the "duck and cover" drills along with the nuclear bomb shelters in public buildings replete with rations and water to survive a nuclear war. I watched the TV during the Cuban missile crisis. I was in the military during the Vietnam war. Watched the crash of 2009. Then came 9/11/2001. Have grand kids today in the military. Guess what? **** happens! And I'm pretty sure than none of us can anticipate what will happen tomorrow much less months or years from now.

Is it smart to prepare? Certainly, but don't let the what ifs' rule your life.


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## Lone_Hunter

Not a lot of "what if's" with the current administration.


----------



## brisket

On the economic side, inflation is running hot. This of course, is no surprise given the trillions of new dollars that were created out of thin air since the last bubble popped in 2008.
The Federal Reserve has pained themselves into a corner. They have 2 choices:

Raise interest rates
Continue the current policy of easy money, infating the currency
If they go with option 1, the housing and stock markets will crash along with a major economic depression. This effectively pops the mother of all bubbles.

Option 2 will continue to feed inflation higher and higher until the dollar is destroyed and becomes worthless. This wipes out the poor and middle class.


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## Lone_Hunter

brisket said:


> On the economic side, inflation is running hot. This of course, is no surprise given the trillions of new dollars that were created out of thin air since the last bubble popped in 2008.
> The Federal Reserve has pained themselves into a corner. They have 2 choices:
> 
> Raise interest rates
> Continue the current policy of easy money, infating the currency
> If they go with option 1, the housing and stock markets will crash along with a major economic depression. This effectively pops the mother of all bubbles.
> 
> Option 2 will continue to feed inflation higher and higher until the dollar is destroyed and becomes worthless. This wipes out the poor and middle class.











Mountain West, including Utah, experiencing worst of the new inflation


A new report from a congressional study released this week found that Utah and the Mountain West is being hit the hardest by recent inflation.




www.fox13now.com













How much is inflation costing Utah families each month?


Inflation is costing Utah households and those in other Mountain West states an extra $511 every month, markedly higher than the national average increase of $385 per month.




www.ksl.com





Beyond that, what's starting to worry me is gas. Someone correct me if i'm wrong, but my understanding is:

We are still importing oil from Russia
The powers that be are being pressured and/or are considering stopping those imports.
Keystone XL pipeline and fraking have ceased, and we are no longer energy independent.
Saudi isn't going to open the oil spigots more.

Point 3, combined with all of these above, is a nostril flaring to say the least. Where we going to get our gas? The strategic oil reserves? That's laughable. This is a situation that need not be.


----------



## backcountry

Best reporting I've seen is we remain "energy independent" and 2022 might be the "best" year yet on the rhetorical balancing sheet. But even then, we still rely on foreign oil because fossil fuels are fungible, global commodity traded for profit. Unless we nationalized our resources (not going to happen, not advocating for it) we'll always be at the mercy of market forces.

You can bet gas prices are going to rise and will do so on average for the rest of our lives. Just too much international demand and too much explicitly controlled for the financial benefit of cartels. And despite claims, it has little to do with domestic policy at the level of POTUS.

Keystone XL never went active to begin with and we continue to extract a ton through fracking. 2021 production decreased for a variety of reasons but is going up again, according to the last reporting I saw. 
We all are going to have to tighten our buckles given the crisis on the NATO border. There is good reason to believe that Boomers/Gen X are the last generation to enjoy consumption to excess. My little girl almost certainly will "have less" than my parents.


----------



## brisket

Lone_Hunter said:


> Where we going to get our gas?


Maybe we'll all be hunting out of F-150 Lightnings and the Tesla Cybertuck soon.


----------



## Vanilla

brisket said:


> On the economic side, inflation is running hot. This of course, is no surprise given the trillions of new dollars that were created out of thin air since the last bubble popped in 2008.
> The Federal Reserve has pained themselves into a corner. They have 2 choices:
> 
> Raise interest rates
> Continue the current policy of easy money, infating the currency
> If they go with option 1, the housing and stock markets will crash along with a major economic depression. This effectively pops the mother of all bubbles.
> 
> Option 2 will continue to feed inflation higher and higher until the dollar is destroyed and becomes worthless. This wipes out the poor and middle class.


I wonder if there is option 3, which is a bit of middle ground? I know raising interest rates quickly and sharply could potentially cause a major recession. If they do it gradually I think it can slow inflation without economic collapse.

But I’m also not an economist. Not that being one would matter. Getting economists to agree on something is harder than getting lawyers to agree on something!


----------



## backcountry




----------



## DallanC

Cal-Ranch has deal on chicks right now, buy 1 get 2 free. We were planning on rotating our flock this year anyway... but I wasnt in the mindset to get chicks until it warms up a bit more... next month or so. But... now we have a dozen peepers in a big box under a heatlight in the kitchen right now. Wife made an executive decision on the spot ... LOL.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Cal-Ranch has deal on chicks right now, buy 1 get 2 free. We were planning on rotating our flock this year anyway... but I wasnt in the mindset to get chicks until it warms up a bit more... next month or so. But... now we have a dozen peepers in a big box under a heatlight in the kitchen right now. Wife made an executive decision on the spot ... LOL.
> 
> -DallanC


I'm guessing they sold out around a weeks time, give or take. I went to my local cal ranch to stock up on layer feed and they had plenty of chicks. Came back around a week later for some feather fixer and most of the bins were empty. Maybe a couple healthy chicks, but generally speaking what was left over looked sickly with pasty butt.

Sooo.... anyone else catch what Mr Potatohead said the other day about food? I mean, I kinda already figured it out on my own. I have to wonder though if it's going to start for more people to buy more grocceries and such. Not sure if i want to use the words "panic buy", at least not yet.

Always that suspension of disbelif and normality biases. Part of me doesn't want to believe what seems to be coming. Not meaning apocolpyse and the sky is falling, but economic ... neigh unto collapse, but not quite? Recession harder then 2008, maybe close to a depression? Skyrocketing food prices and maybe some more rioting and civil unrest around mid terms is a safe bet.

Hard to say one way or another, but it's a good bet it's going to get alot worse before it gets any better. I feel like a clock is ticking.


----------



## Vanilla

Your signature seems ironic.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> I'm guessing they sold out around a weeks time, give or take.


They were all gone by the next morning. Entire store was cleared out. They probably ran the sale to make room for their next shipment. They get birds every few days. Our replacement flock is doing well, they are feathering up nicely. 

As far as shortages, to try to find some wheat bread flour. Costco hasn't had any in ages. There's definitely a run going on for items... but its more behind the scenes than the last one that made the news.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Ok here's some hard figures in the local economy in terms of groceries. Just digging around my purchase history. At the start of covid we turned to ordering our groceries online and picking them up at a drive through. It's a habit that's stuck mainly out of convenience now. So I've an archive of purchase history to dig through. Helps see through the fog of incrementalism.

Eggs, Greatland, 18 count:

07Apr20 for $2.48
11Apr22 is $4.12

Milk, 1%, Great value, 1 Gal:

15Jul20 for $2.18
11Apr22 is $3.69

Wheat Bread,Grandma Sycamore, 1 loaf
- 21May20 for $2.98
-11Apr22 for $3.24

Frozen peas:
- Much to my amazement, the price has remained stable from April 2020 to the present at $ 2.22

Kielbasa Sausage, hillshire farms

19Apr20 for $2.96
11Apr22 for $4.48

Coffeemate, powdered creamer, 35.3 oz

19Apr20 for $4.63
11Apr22 for $6.42

Chips, Tostidos scoops, 14.5 oz bag
-28Jun20 for $3.98
-11Apr22 for $4.48

Maxwell house Coffee. Price hasn't changed from 2020.


A few items actually dropped in price, but like peppers or bacon, but I suspect that maybe the product is reaching the end of it's shelf life so they're discounting it. Meat and dairy is clearly being hit hard in price, followed by certain wheat related products. Given current news/national trend, this is only going to increase for the foreseeable future.

Has anyone given any thought as to what might happen if food become unaffordable or unavailable?

edit: since i'm on the subject.
Keyword "Global food crises",News section, two different search engines, showing results for the last month:





global food crisis at DuckDuckGo


DuckDuckGo. Privacy, Simplified.




duckduckgo.com







global food crisis - Google Search


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> Has anyone given any thought as to what might happen if food become unaffordable or unavailable?


Unaffordable: People with little money will move to cheaper food sources. In the 1980's people used to joke about the elderly eating dog/cat food etc etc. IDK, people will find something to eat, but the shift will be to cheap simple food.

Unavailability: The big costal citys will melt down first, decent people who would never commit a crime will start doing what it takes to feed their children. Robbery, Crime will skyrocket. That will lead to an exodus to surrounding areas... ie: think Grapes of Wrath

In rural Utah, there's more food available. Lots of horse trading with farmers / ranchers. There will be lots of poaching.

I saw a few stores are now not putting steaks out on shelves, due to theft. You have to go to the meat counter now and ask for the meat.

My son is in Guatamala City for a couple years, every store along the street has an armed guard with a shotgun. He said he passes 20-30 armed guards standing outside small shops and stores walking around the block. Thats the way its been there for years now. It might get to that point here in the US if the food source really gets compromised.

-DallanC


----------



## CPAjeff

I've heard there is quite the feral horse problem in some areas of the West - seems like a pretty good source of protein.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Unaffordable: People with little money will move to cheaper food sources. In the 1980's people used to joke about the elderly eating dog/cat food etc etc. IDK, people will find something to eat, but the shift will be to cheap simple food.


Top ramen and mac n cheese. Maybe some fried spam if it hasn't gone up too much. Frozen peas. Mainly top ramen, that stuff is cheap. Long shelf life too. Although, you'd have to be careful about brand. Some of it (cup o noodles i think) has a light layer of wax as a preservative. Eat enough of it over time, and you might have some GI issues.

If you mention "Rolling pennies for gas broke" to people nowadays, they probably wouldn't get it.


> Unavailability: The big costal citys will melt down first, decent people who would never commit a crime will start doing what it takes to feed their children. Robbery, Crime will skyrocket. That will lead to an exodus to surrounding areas... ie: think Grapes of Wrath
> 
> In rural Utah, there's more food available. Lots of horse trading with farmers / ranchers.


Yeah pretty much, although i'd apply that to all big cities, not just coastal ones. Desperate people will do desperate things. I think how far things deteriorate depends on the severity of shortages and unavailability. Despite it being mainly a big city issue, it will effect everyone else in the surrounding areas none the less. In terms of resources and crime. People with mouths to feed and any means of travel aren't going to sit there and pick there nose. Either by leaving their home areas for other groccery store or markets at best or "Foraging" at worse, it's going to put a drain on suburban and rural resources.



> There will be lots of poaching.


I've put a lot of thought into this one actually. There will definitely be an uptick in poaching on both public and private. How much, depends on how bad prices/availability becomes. If things get real bad, I think a lot of people will turn to poaching. Even people who ordinarily would not.

One scenario that has crossed my mind is.... how do i put this.... being robbed of a kill. Put it this way, lets say a fella who happens to hunt by themselves legally harvests a deer or elk. (There are a lot of guys who hunt solo, not just me). Then a group of armed dudes spot him, move up, and basically say, "Get away from my elk." Not much you can do except get yourself killed. It sounds apocalyptic and far fetched I know, but I can see that plausible under certain circumstances.

If major food shortages becomes a thing, I honestly don't think the deer and elk herds will survive more then 3 to 6 months if poaching ever goes "mainstream". (IE. "Everyone is doing it" )




> I saw a few stores are now not putting steaks out on shelves, due to theft. You have to go to the meat counter now and ask for the meat.
> 
> My son is in Guatamala City for a couple years, every store along the street has an armed guard with a shotgun. He said he passes 20-30 armed guards standing outside small shops and stores walking around the block. Thats the way its been there for years now. It might get to that point here in the US if the food source really gets compromised.
> 
> -DallanC


Venezuala and Argentina might make great case studies. Seems like that's where we might be heading.

EDIT:
Since I'm writing a freaking book. (I type fast, ex IT cubicle dweller),
If I sound like i have little faith in humanity or human nature it's because I do. Some of what I've seen people will do while TDY in SouthCom (aka central / south america) as an Engineer:


Woman willing to ***** herself out for a pair of jungle boots? Check. (it wasn't me she propositioned, it was a buddy of mine)
Kids literally knocking other kids out for an MRE handout? Check. (medic had to patch a gash in a kids head)
Villagers rioting over scrap building materials for their huts and local forces discharging their weapons iinto the air on full auto to disperse them? Check.

Yeah, guess who had to burn all the scrap material at a result in order to keep the peace? Yours truly. I just loved the looks i was getting. Diesal sucks for this purpose btw. MoGas works much better, but amazingly, you don't see much of it outside of a mobile field kitchen.

Desperate people *will *do desperate things. I imagine afgan/ Iraq vets will have even better stories to tell.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Starts at 12:36 Dismiss it, or pay attention, whatever. Don't care. I'm being nice by posting this.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> Starts at 12:36 Dismiss it, or pay attention, whatever. Don't care. I'm being nice by posting this.


I read a couple days ago meat is going bad sitting on ships waiting to be unloaded in Europe just going across the channel. They have been shipping non-frozen meat to get it to market for premium prices, now its a couple days late and the meat isnt as fresh. All because they cant unload the ships fast enough.

Also back to car dealers, VW just announced chip shortages lasting into 2024 now. I thought it was nuts when in 2021 they were saying it wouldn't normalize until 2023.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I know I repeat myself, but if there's something you've been planning on getting, get it soon. I'm linking two videos, on the correct time stamp that is talking about the supply crunch that is coming. Like Ripley, you can believe it or not. Personally, given inflation, and the rosy overall picture, ... well whatever. You make your own decisions.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Interesting listen if you've got the time.


----------



## Ray

Anyone here buy precious metals? I recommend getting some.

Also, get hard alcohol, even if you don’t drink, it has lots of uses and if **** hit the fan, you can use it to trade.


----------



## Critter

Ray said:


> Anyone here buy precious metals? I recommend getting some.
> 
> Also, get hard alcohol, even if you don’t drink, it has lots of uses and if **** hit the fan, you can use it to trade.


I picked up quite a bit of silver a few years ago when it was under $20 a oz but now it is over $20. If it comes back down I may get some more. I have both coins and bars and for what I bought it for I have a nice investment. I also have some foreign currency that is interesting to watch go up and down. Right now it is going up for some reason.

On alcohol, I dumped around a grand worth down the drain this last January. All of it had been given to me for work that I had done for others. It was funny that when I went to uncork some very good Wild Turkey Rye the cork broke off in the neck and I ended up pushing it down into the bottle to be able to dump it.


----------



## DallanC

If the past 3 years is any indication... primers & powder > precious metals for SHTF. I cant count the number of trades I've done using reloading components since before Covid hit. No-one has asked for silver. But if you want to go the silver route, get the old silver dimes. Small enough denomination to be useful for small deals. IDK if the average person can tell a 90% silver "rosie" from 40% on... or maybe even a clad one (lol)... but a merc dime... everyone recognizes those as silver. Problem with those now is even finding any for sale. They got really popular 2 years ago. Price jumped from $1200 per $100 face to near $2000 in less than a month. Those are almost $2200 now.

You should get at least one canadian maple leaf though, those are "4 9's" silver (9.999%). You can make colloidal silver solution with a couple 9 volt batteries (google how-to's). That is extremely useful for treating wound infections if you don't have access to antibiotics. Dont use us silver eagles for that... they aren't pure enough.

-DallanC


----------



## Ray

Good on ya DallanC, I actually got a bunch of the .9999 stuff, simply because they can use it in electronics and such but now I’m going to have to Google the video you mentioned.

What made you dump all the booze?


----------



## DallanC

To this day, I carry a Morgan dollar, a Walking Liberty half, and a Standing Liberty quarter in my pocket. Its been a topic of conversation countless times among friends or at the office. Someone mentions "Silver" and I plop the dollar on the table. 

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

Speaking of Mercury Dimes, I used to frequent the old Westwoods Greyhound bus depot and cafe. You would be surprised at the number of silver coins that went through the cash register from passengers on the bus. They had to of emptied out their piggy banks for their trip to California. I was also going with a waitress that worked there and had her pull all the silver coins out for me to exchange. That was until the owner got wind of what I was doing and then that came to a halt. 

I also have my dads 1878 Carson City silver dollar that he got from his grandmother. It has never seen a case but he carried it enough that you can see wear on it from being in his pocket. I also have a 1880 Carson City silver dollar that was my grandmothers. Those two will never leave my safe. But then there are the ones that I got from the tooth ferry, she left a silver dollar under my pillow when I lost a tooth.


----------



## DallanC

I always loved the CC dollars. They still have the original CC press and dies... there is a push among numismatics for the US Gov to issue a new 21st century CC Morgan coin, minted on the original equipment. I love the idea personally.

My grandfather gave me a Merc Dime way too many decades ago, he had a coin shop and gave it to me when I was young to "help pay for college". I really never thought about it until 3-4 years ago. I dug it out, knew it was something special so sent it in to get professional graded and slabbed. It came back as 1916D Mercury, XF. Thats the king of the merc dimes, the rare key date. Sadly it does have a healthy scratch in the neck that drops alot off the estimated value. But like your Dads coin, its special and nothing I'd ever consider parting with.

-DallanC


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Well, well, well, my how they turntables...turn. Seems like out of control food prices have everyone's attention now. Every other time I blink I hear people, news outlets, or whoever talking about the looming food shortage. It's not just "crazy preppers" talking about it either. It's normies. Pumpkin spice latte sipping basic bitches. Last year I had coworkers and in-laws acting like me, my wife and other like-minded coworkers were nut jobs for kicking the food storage into overdrive. I mean food has always been cheap and plentiful. Why would that ever change? 🙃


----------



## DallanC

Just got back from getting some "blue gas" for the toys for the holiday weekend. $4.98 gal.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Just got back from getting some "blue gas" for the toys for the holiday weekend. $4.98 gal.
> 
> -DallanC


Esssh. Yeah it's coming.

Here's a bookmark to go along with any news sites you might happen to frequent.




__





AAA Gas Prices






gasprices.aaa.com


----------



## Vanilla

Here is some potential temporary good news in this thread of nothing but negativity:









US retailers' ballooning inventories set stage for deep discounts


Major U.S. retailers that recently scrambled to restock shelves amid product shortages disclosed this week that their stores are now packed with too much merchandise.




www.ksl.com


----------



## colorcountrygunner

What I gathered from that article is that consumers are starting to significantly pump their brakes on spending. Don't economists have a word for that? It starts with an "r" or something but we totally aren't in one...


----------



## colorcountrygunner

CPAjeff said:


> I've heard there is quite the feral horse problem in some areas of the West - seems like a pretty good source of protein.


If things get really dire, we certainly have a surplus of long pig to eat. The tricky part will be acquiring long pig without becoming long pig yourself.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

colorcountrygunner said:


> If things get really dire, we certainly have a surplus of long pig to eat. The tricky part will be acquiring long pig without becoming long pig yourself.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Here's a video about the ole Mk 1 Eyeball Night Vision. Could be adapted the hunting, or prepping. I thought it was interesting.


----------



## Ray

I am looking at adding a new shtf knife, I’ve got it narrowed down between the esee 4 and 5, two completely different knives, I know but both have their merits.

The 4 is the best all around knife, While the 5 is a tank, that has a glass breaker on it, can be used as a pry bar and has a bow drill groove, although, a bit more cumbersome.

Anyone got experience with either of these knives?


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Ray said:


> I am looking at adding a new shtf knife, I’ve got it narrowed down between the esee 4 and 5, two completely different knives, I know but both have their merits.
> 
> The 4 is the best all around knife, While the 5 is a tank, that has a glass breaker on it, can be used as a pry bar and has a bow drill groove, although, a bit more cumbersome.
> 
> Anyone got experience with either of these knives?


Got any links to share? I wanna see these bad boys!

Edit: nevermind. I just remembered I have Google. I'll go take a gander.


----------



## Ray

Here’s the 5, it’s essentially a sharpened pry bar 😂





__





ESEE 5 Knives - Survival Fixed Blades | Blade HQ


ESEE 5 fixed blade knives were designed for survival use and feature powder coated 1095 blades and durable handles. Shop our wide variety of the ESEE 5 knife.



www.bladehq.com





here’s the 4





__





ESEE-4


The ESEE-4 is one of the most popular ESEE knives ever made. With its 3/16″ thickness, it’s the perfect blend between toughness and cutting efficiency all in a small package. If you can only choose one, then the ESEE-4 is the do-all workhorse of the ESEE line. Read a review on the ESEE-4.




 www.eseeknives.com


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Ray said:


> Here’s the 5, it’s essentially a sharpened pry bar 😂
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ESEE 5 Knives - Survival Fixed Blades | Blade HQ
> 
> 
> ESEE 5 fixed blade knives were designed for survival use and feature powder coated 1095 blades and durable handles. Shop our wide variety of the ESEE 5 knife.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bladehq.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> here’s the 4
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ESEE-4
> 
> 
> The ESEE-4 is one of the most popular ESEE knives ever made. With its 3/16″ thickness, it’s the perfect blend between toughness and cutting efficiency all in a small package. If you can only choose one, then the ESEE-4 is the do-all workhorse of the ESEE line. Read a review on the ESEE-4.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.eseeknives.com


3/16 inch wow! That's a thick boy.


----------



## Ray

colorcountrygunner said:


> 3/16 inch wow! That's a thick boy.


the 5 is 1/4!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Sooooo..... given the recent news over the last week or two, all of which not so good. It feels like the dice has been cast, and things are now , dare i say officially, in motion? To use the classic iceberg metaphor , how long do you think it will be before S.S. America hits that titanic iceberg bearing straight ahead? (pun intended)

Seems like that has always been the question. Not if, but when.


----------



## DallanC

FedNow is a new digital currency created by the USA. You turn your dollars into this digital currency for quicker turn around time for transactions (initial claim). But, all transactions are tracked by the government, probably tax liability tracking will occur here as well.

Its going live next year in 2023. Listen to the future in Gerome Powell's own words:






FedNow:





__





About the FedNow Service


What is the FedNow Service and how will it help enable financial institutions to deliver end-to-end faster payment services to their customers?




www.frbservices.org





This guy is wrong about it not being blockchain, it is... its just not a decentralized blockchain. That means they can control all the transactions on their own computers.

I don't neccessarily agree with this guys take on the system... but I do agree with his general advice of getting out of advice and pseudo financial prepping.

-DallanC


----------



## colorcountrygunner

DallanC said:


> FedNow is a new digital currency created by the USA. You turn your dollars into this digital currency for quicker turn around time for transactions (initial claim). But, all transactions are tracked by the government, probably tax liability tracking will occur here as well.
> 
> Its going live next year in 2023. Listen to the future in Gerome Powell's own words:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FedNow:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> About the FedNow Service
> 
> 
> What is the FedNow Service and how will it help enable financial institutions to deliver end-to-end faster payment services to their customers?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.frbservices.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This guy is wrong about it not being blockchain, it is... its just not a decentralized blockchain. That means they can control all the transactions on their own computers.
> 
> I don't neccessarily agree with this guys take on the system... but I do agree with his general advice of getting out of advice and pseudo financial prepping.
> 
> -DallanC


Jesus, I hope that guy isn't right.


----------



## Ray

I decided to go with this bark river in 3v









Bark River Knives: Bravo 1 - CPM 3V - Green Canvas Micarta - Rampless


BUY Bark River Knives: Bravo 1 - CPM 3V - Green Canvas Micarta - Rampless IN STOCK at KnivesShipFree.




www.knivesshipfree.com


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> FedNow is a new digital currency created by the USA. You turn your dollars into this digital currency for quicker turn around time for transactions (initial claim). But, all transactions are tracked by the government, probably tax liability tracking will occur here as well.
> 
> Its going live next year in 2023. Listen to the future in Gerome Powell's own words:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FedNow:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> About the FedNow Service
> 
> 
> What is the FedNow Service and how will it help enable financial institutions to deliver end-to-end faster payment services to their customers?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.frbservices.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This guy is wrong about it not being blockchain, it is... its just not a decentralized blockchain. That means they can control all the transactions on their own computers.
> 
> I don't neccessarily agree with this guys take on the system... but I do agree with his general advice of getting out of advice and pseudo financial prepping.
> 
> -DallanC


Interesting. I've heard rumblings about a digital dollar, and never discounted them. I just didn't think it would already be waiting in the wings. It's not a far stretch. I mean, remember when they first came out with debit cards? Before that it was always cash on the barrel or writing a check. (heh, who writes a check anymore at the store? lol) Debit cards are so prolific now, you hardly ever see cash. Being slow and resistant to change that I am, I kept cash and coin on me up until maybe 15 years ago. I thought it silly to use a debit card on small transactions, like buying a soda at a gas station. How now, you have to whip that plastic out just to use the air compressor at some gas stations.

So a digital dollar is the next logical step when you think about it. Trouble is, all that centralization. I don't see how you could create a digital currency without some type of central control on it when its being crunched out of thin by the federal reserves. The potential for a loss in privacy is ... ehhh.. astronomical. Are we eventually going to see our bank accounts frozen if we do something the gov doesn't like ala Trudeu and the candian trucker convoy?

Another thought is, the national debit. There is no way that will EVER be paid off. They'll have to find a way to erase it somehow. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

What's your thoughts on large purchases at the moment? I think buying a new car or truck right now is unwise. We were considering putting solar panels on our house, but when we discovered its a 25 year contract, with a regular service payment (think car payment until you pay it off), it gave me second thoughts. It's a tough call... being prepared for hikes in energy rates and having a rate locked in, vs taking on a 25 year contract payment obligation?


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> Another thought is, the national debit. There is no way that will EVER be paid off. They'll have to find a way to erase it somehow.


Inflation diminishes the debt, by devaluing the dollar. Sucks for the general populace though.



> What's your thoughts on large purchases at the moment? I think buying a new car or truck right now is unwise.


Wise or not, you CANNOT buy one. Unless you are willing to really bribe the hell out of a dealership by paying way over msrp. Truck orders are a year out... think about that, if you have the $$$ to buy one you have to order it... and the orders are so far out right now its ridiculous. Average GMC SLT work truck? 10-12 month wait. Ford Lightning? 18 month wait.

In fact its even worse than that... there's a list to get on the list. Dealers are only allocated X number of orders per month as regulated by the regional purchasing manager. So you go down to Seiner, Young or whatever to place an order and pay the couple thousand $ and they put you on "the list". But that is THEIR list. Each month they get to place 4 or 5 truck orders so they take the top X number of people on THEIR list and submit the orders to the dealer to be on the actual Mfg Order list. Once on that list... hopefully its only a few months wait... but to get on that list... oh boy.

So looking forward, wise or not... you might not even be able to buy a new truck for many many years if you expect to walk onto a dealer lot and buy one. Its now this way for most auto dealers as well. Toyota just hit a milestone, they are down to a 1 day stock of vehicles on lot. That means that nearly every vehicle coming in is pre-sold. They no longer have excess inventory for the "walk in" public to look at and buy.

Ford has announced they wont even allow EV vehicles to be purchased at dealers. Its "online only". The online price is "the price" no dickering or deals.



> We were considering putting solar panels on our house, but when we discovered its a 25 year contract, with a regular service payment (think car payment until you pay it off), it gave me second thoughts. It's a tough call... being prepared for hikes in energy rates and having a rate locked in, vs taking on a 25 year contract payment obligation?


I can tell you how to do DIY home solar for a fraction of the cost. You can get pallets of B Grade 360/480 watt panels that are "take offs" from major systems being upgraded for very cheap ($3-3500). Panels are guaranteed, install most, keep a couple for spares. Then you just need a quality charge controller (Victron or something), then a battery system (the popular goto is server rack batteries). Look at the Will Prowse youtube channel.

Don't do the contract install thing... its a scam. You can easily DIY for a fraction of the cost, which then makes it feasible.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Current events.

What's your take, and how do you think it will effect us?

Personally, I just don't know anymore. Nothing seems certain, its all about plausibility, and likelihoods.

I expect gas to skyrocket again later this year or into next year. Say December, or January. No rhyme or reason it's just what my gut is telling me. SPR is almost empty, and there's talk about trying to restock it with astrmonmically high price per barrel. Probably deliberately.

Civil unrest remains a possibility in November. It's more of a question of where, and to what degree.

I think maybe mid winter, very strong possibility things are going to start sliding downhill in terms of food prices or availability. At some point the increased costs in fuel and fertalizer will have to kick in.

And then there's the whole Ukraine, nordstream thing. That's definately escalating. From social media coming out of russia, things are definately getting real over there. As they say history is cyclical, or it at least rhymes. Another world war on the horizon? Who knows. At the least, we are seeing the resurgence of the cold war, and the forming of new alliances with BRICS and what can best be called a global nato.

I think my alcohol consumption is increasing... for medicinal purposes.


----------



## DallanC

Here's something that should terrify folk: We're now down to a mere 25 day supply of Diesel in this country. Think about everything that runs on Diesel... semi trucks, trains, all industrial heavy equipment. This is really alarming. All it would take is one big earthquake or storm through the major refineries to really knock the economy off the rails (even more than it currently is).





__





The US now has just 25 days of diesel supply — the lowest since 2008. Here's why that's more alarming than a dwindling 'oil piggy bank'






www.msn.com





-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Here's something that should terrify folk: We're now down to a mere 25 day supply of Diesel in this country. Think about everything that runs on Diesel... semi trucks, trains, all industrial heavy equipment. This is really alarming. All it would take is one big earthquake or storm through the major refineries to really knock the economy off the rails (even more than it currently is).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The US now has just 25 days of diesel supply — the lowest since 2008. Here's why that's more alarming than a dwindling 'oil piggy bank'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.msn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -DallanC


Yep, saw that the other day. I've heard this isn't the first time, but these days it's hard to take any bit of news without some grain of salt. Buuutttt, on top of less than 25 days left of diesel nationally, the 101st airborne has been deployed to Poland I think it was, near the Ukraine border, for exercises. By itself, whatever... our forces participate in exercises all over the world all the time. However, the last time the screaming eagles were deployed to Europe, was 40 some odd years ago.

That clock, keeps on tickin'....


----------



## DallanC

Curious timing.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Curious timing.
> 
> -DallanC


Two things come to mind:

How similar to the multiple food processing fires, crashes, and what not we've had in the states. List is pretty long.
7 meals from anarchy. How does that relate? Refinery = diesal = food delivery.

Granted these are in asia and have nothing to do with CONUS. But.. china .. or rather Xi did say something the other day about the status quo with Tawian being unacceptable. Conjecture is they might step up "reunification" to before the end of the year. The buzzwords are "Greyzone warfare". The analiyst types love this, but it's that threshold between peace, and active war. Not at peace, but not actively shooting either. 

This is going to be an interesting decade.


----------



## DallanC

If you own a Diesel vehicle, you should fill it up asap, and as many spare fuel cans as you have. There is already a shortage on the east coast with fuel stations running out. Prices are up 20 cents in the past 5 days, its going to be ugly in a few weeks.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Suddenly, that 8.1 gasser of mine doesn't seem so bad.


----------



## DallanC

Chickens... this is becoming a problem. And this is as of this morning... after we gave 50 eggs to the single mother a couple houses down last week, and my wife freeze drying another 500.

All of this from 11 hens (I really only wanted 10, got an extra chick in case we lost one along the way).










Freeze dried eggs, around 50 eggs per bottle. Supposed to last 25 years. We'll be transferring these to mylar bags with oxygen absorbers pretty soon.










-DallanC


----------



## brisket

DallanC said:


> Chickens... this is becoming a problem. And this is as of this morning... after we gave 50 eggs to the single mother a couple houses down last week, and my wife freeze drying another 500.
> 
> All of this from 11 hens (I really only wanted 10, got an extra chick in case we lost one along the way).
> 
> View attachment 154417
> 
> 
> Freeze dried eggs, around 50 eggs per bottle. Supposed to last 25 years. We'll be transferring these to mylar bags with oxygen absorbers pretty soon.
> 
> View attachment 154418
> 
> 
> -DallanC


That’s some serious egg production! Do you freeze dry them raw or cooked?


----------



## DallanC

Raw, just mix'em up really good and pour into the tray then freeze. Once frozen, that goes in the dryer until the moisture is gone. Then you just put the now dried eggs into a blender to mix it up into a powder, then that goes in the bottles which are vacuum sealed.

Here's a good video on it, with reconstituting and cooking them in the end. We've reconstituted and cooked up some and they were great.






-DallanC


----------



## 2full

I would take/buy some if I was closer. 
I miss having chickens. They are fun to watch and are great companions. I usually ran 4 hens. That gave enough for us, the kids, and still give some away to friends. 
Grandkids always got a kick out of them. 
They are much better than store bought.


----------



## DallanC

Told my wife about the egg picture I took... she said there are 4 more dozen in the fridge ... 

And I just went out to gather todays, 10 more... it IS a problem.

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

DallanC said:


> Told my wife about the egg picture I took... she said there are 4 more dozen in the fridge ...
> 
> And I just went out to gather todays, 10 more... it IS a problem.
> 
> -DallanC


Thin the flock, chicken dinner on Sunday. 

Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk


----------



## middlefork

Maybe a food bank or church could use them/. Just a thought.


----------



## DallanC

Will trade eggs for primers! 

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

DallanC said:


> Will trade eggs for primers!
> 
> -DallanC


One for one?

Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Raw, just mix'em up really good and pour into the tray then freeze. Once frozen, that goes in the dryer until the moisture is gone. Then you just put the now dried eggs into a blender to mix it up into a powder, then that goes in the bottles which are vacuum sealed.
> 
> Here's a good video on it, with reconstituting and cooking them in the end. We've reconstituted and cooked up some and they were great.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -DallanC


Thanks for passing that along. I'm going to go watch that with the wife later. We only have 5 chickens, and they've pretty much done laying for the year. Some have been molting like crazy, (they looked plucked, its a sad sight) others decided they're just isn't enough daylight anymore. We we're giving some of our spare eggs away to the neighbors a few times, at one point during the summer, i cooked up a HUGE batch of scrambled eggs and freeze dried the whole dang thing. I was under the impression you can't freeze dry raw food in general, which is why I did that. Yesterday, I bought eggs from the store for the first time in a year. I cried a little inside.  I do have a lighting kit out in the shed, but I figure the girls deserve a rest for a few months.


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## DallanC

Put a light in the coop, on a timer to come on at like 2 or 3am ... you'll have eggs all winter.

-DallanC


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## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Put a light in the coop, on a timer to come on at like 2 or 3am ... you'll have eggs all winter.
> 
> -DallanC


Does letting the chickens rest for a few months make a difference in how long they are productive over their life spans? I like to think it does, but I really don't know.


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## colorcountrygunner

The world population surpassed 8 billion a few days ago. It has only been since October of 2011 that we hit the 7 billion mark. So basically all it takes is a decade and a year now to increase our burden on the planet by another billion people. In light of everything going on in the world today, what do you prepper types make of this?


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## DallanC

Hens are born with the ability to only make X number of eggs... period. You can get them over a shorter period, or over a normal lifetime... but it will be the same number of eggs (roughly). I get as many eggs as I can out of the bird and rotate them at 2.5 years for new ones. They are usually still laying good at 2.5 years so they are desirable, and it gives us time to prep the coop for the new pullets. We'll go a couple months without eggs during that time the old hens are gone and the new pullets start laying. Its ok, we get so dang many eggs its crazy.

Next flock I'm only having 6 hens max. Any more than that is just too many eggs for us.

-DallanC


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## DallanC

colorcountrygunner said:


> The world population surpassed 8 billion a few days ago. It has only been since October of 2011 that we hit the 7 billion mark. So basically all it takes is a decade and a year now to increase our burden on the planet by another billion people. In light of everything going on in the world today, what do you prepper types make of this?


Its going to be really really crowded in china, india etc etc. For the rest of the world, there's still alot of space out there.

But... the higher density of people, the greater chance for some form of pathogen to evolve and knock said population back down. Until the last 200 or so years, the max population of the earth hovered at 400 million. Any more than that disease would ravage the denser population and drop it back down. Modern medicine and better hygiene has really allowed human populations to explode, but we will reach a point even science cant stem off all the possible diseases that can evolve.

For us along the 'front... not much will change over what we are seeing now. More people, worse hunting tag odds, higher property prices, more crowded trails, fewer places to camp etc etc.

-DallanC


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## colorcountrygunner

DallanC said:


> For us along the 'front... not much will change over what we are seeing now. More people, worse hunting tag odds, higher property prices, more crowded trails, fewer places to camp etc etc.
> 
> -DallanC


The future sounds like a utopian paradise. 😊


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## 2full

DallanC said:


> For us along the 'front... not much will change over what we are seeing now. More people, worse hunting tag odds, higher property prices, more crowded trails, fewer places to camp etc etc.
> 
> -DallanC


Not just along the 'front !! 
In all of Utah. 

Cedar was 10k population when I graduated from high school, and SUU (SUSC) was 1200 students when I attended college. 
Now Cedar is at 40k population and SUU has 12000+ students. 
I personally don't see those numbers as an improvement, nor do I see it slowing down. 

Can't stop "progress".


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## colorcountrygunner

2full said:


> Not just along the 'front !!
> In all of Utah.
> 
> Cedar was 10k population when I graduated from high school, and SUU (SUSC) was 1200 students when I attended college.
> Now Cedar is at 40k population and SUU has 12000+ students.
> I personally don't see those numbers as an improvement, nor do I see it slowing down.
> 
> Can't stop "progress".


And St. George was SMALLER than Cedar City was in those days. We don't even need to talk about what's going on in St. George now. Oh well, plenty of water for everyone! Pack em in...😖😖😖


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