# Corona Virus... who's worried?



## DallanC

I generally am not overly concerned with this, but there are some interesting things happening with this case that frankly, do not seem to jive with the story being put out. The more I've started following this, the more curious it gets.

I really do feel we will eventually see a world wide virus that will sweep the world much like the Spanish Flu. That flu infected 1/3 of the entire worlds population killing 50 million people. And that was in a time pre-airplane. So it traveled the world via ship. Its easy to image with todays much higher population world and quick travel via air travel, that a fatal virus could be truly terrifying and devastating.

The CDC and Government officials state Corona Virus is a little more serious than the regular flu, but nothing to really be worried about, so knowing that...

Curious things:

201 US "Citizens" were just evacuated from Wuhan via a special 747 to a military base where all passengers were put into immediate quarantine. Its interesting the plane had no passenger windows, so its not any form of a conventional airliner. It was escorted by fighter jets the entire flight. Sounds excessive.

Hmmm...

Someone snapped a picture of the co-pilot on landing... interesting getup for "just a flu virus"










Hmmm...

China announced they build a hospital in a day or two to handle the new patient load. If the Virus isn't that much more serious than the normal flu, why the need for new hospital constructions?

What makes me really curious, is the Chinese government posted pictures of a "new hospital" they constructed in Wuhan... but internet sleuths proved the hospital pictured, already existed as an apartment building, 600 miles away.

Why the lie?

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...-state-media-false-coronavirus-hospital-image

Hmmmm...

They are however, _RAPIDLY_ building other, additional hospitals, that is verified. Seems like alot of effort for just a "flu".

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-rapid-progress-panic-building-a-hospital-in-6-days-2020-1

Hmmmm...

Amazon retailers pretty much sold out of local surgical face masks yesterday. Any orders made (for retailers willing to even take orders), delivery is now March through May time frame.

Hmmmm...

Will be interesting to see how this plays out further. Researchers really still dont know the incubation period yet, and infected people are contagious without showing symptoms.

Again, I'm not overly concerned about this. But it is starting to affect the worlds economy, so consideration towards investments is always wise (anyone see the 6,000 people not allowed to disembark the cruise ship in Italy over Corona fears?). Fear seems to be affecting all kinds of different businesses. Quite a few of my investment stocks are down over this.

-DallanC


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## RandomElk16

So far 50x as many people have died from the flu this year in the US alone... It's hard to know the severity of it, but I am glad we are monitoring "the unknown".


Is the Swine Flu even around anymore?


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## DallanC

RandomElk16 said:


> Is the Swine Flu even around anymore?


Swine flu is just the H1N1 Flu, or "influenza A" Virus, one of the most common flu's out there. Its just not as dangerous as initially thought.

-DallanC


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## RandomElk16

DallanC said:


> Swine flu is just the H1N1 Flu, or "influenza A" Virus, one of the most common flu's out there. Its just not as dangerous as initially thought.
> 
> -DallanC


I was being sarcastic about it because the feelings then were very much like they are with this.

So does this become the next plague, or the next swine flu?


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## Vanilla

DallanC said:


> Amazon retailers pretty much sold out of local surgical face masks yesterday. Any orders made (for retailers willing to even take orders), delivery is now March through May time frame.


I just did a quick search on Amazon. A box of 1,000 surgical masks can arrive at my house on Monday with free delivery. I wonder what the secondary market for these will be?

I got Influenza A in the spring of 2012. There was a 24 hour period where I have never been so miserable in my life and I felt like I wanted to die. Thank goodness it was only 24 hours! I don't know that I'm "worried" about coronavirus all that much, but something to certainly keep an eye out on. I don't drink Corona, so I should be fine anyway...


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## johnnycake

I think it will be interesting to watch it all play out. There is always a legitimate concern to treat a new virus that is fairly contagious and has a mortality rate that is higher than your average/common virus. 

Yes, annual deaths from standard influenza infections are quite high (worldwide 290k-650k/year), but a lot of that is driven by the large number of infections that occur. When you look at the deaths per infection, seasonal influenza in the U.S. has a fatality rate of about 0.13%. By comparison, the strain of coronavirus cooking along right now has a mortality rate around 2%, but that number is a moving target as the number of people that have successfully recovered from the infection (110) is LOWER than the mortality figures as of right now (171). And those are the official numbers, primarily from China which has an excellent record for transparency /s. There are various claims from doctors/nurses in the Wuhan region claiming that over 90k cases are confirmed versus the official 8,100 in China + 98 in 18 other countries, and that the Chinese government is shuttling bodies directly to crematoriums without documentation/identification. My $0.02 is that the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of the conspiracies and the Chinese government's official position.

Do I think this will wreak mayhem on the scale of the Spanish Flu of way back when? Nope. But I think it will have a serious impact, probably along the lines of SARS in 2002-2003. It's already creating some wobbles in financial markets, and it'll be interesting to see that play out.


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## 2full

I had the bottle version of Corona flu several times in my younger days .....LOL.
::mrgreen:


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## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> I just did a quick search on Amazon. A box of 1,000 surgical masks can arrive at my house on Monday with free delivery. I wonder what the secondary market for these will be?


Wow... I just looked and you are right there are some on there now for immediate delivery. They are 4x to 5x the normal pricing. They used to be 20-25 cents a mask. Now it looks like they are around $1 per mask.

Last night someone was selling 100,000 masks on Amazon for $50,000... lol



> I got Influenza A in the spring of 2012. There was a 24 hour period where I have never been so miserable in my life and I felt like I wanted to die. Thank goodness it was only 24 hours! I don't know that I'm "worried" about coronavirus all that much, but something to certainly keep an eye out on. I don't drink Corona, so I should be fine anyway...


Sounds terrible. I haven't had the flu since I stopped getting flu shots 20'ish years ago. Ditto with my wife. My parents always get flu shots and one of them gets the flu almost every year.

Flu shots only target 4 or so of the most common types, and frequently the strain that affects people the most isn't covered by the common shot (because it takes 9 months to prep all the flu shots, they have to "guess" what the dominant strains will be almost a year ahead). So the shots are hit or miss in regards to effectiveness.

-DallanC


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## Steve G

My only concern is that I might miss an opportunity to buy on the Corona Virus dip.:sad:


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## DallanC

Oh its looking like you haven't missed it. I hope you dont own Levis stock right now lol.

Prestige Ameritech Ltd is the biggest surgical mask maker in the US.

BTW: 2 hours ago the WHO declared Corona Virus a global emergency. First human to human transmission was confirmed. Number of infections has doubled since yesterday now surpassing SARS. Infection rate models show 100,000 more infected in less than a week.

-DallanC


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## backcountry

It's mortality rate is noticeably less than the other big coronaviruses of the recent past. Fingers crossed it stays that way. 

Saw the news of the first human to human transmission in US. Sounds like first US citizen with it stateside is doing fine and in hospital largely for quarantine.

Luckily cruise ship was a false alarm. Will never board one of the floating human petri dishes myself.

Was told at Home Depot today that they have instituted a 10 mask limit to maintain supplies; don't know if that's corporate wide or just local.

I'm not too worried yet myself but will be interesting to see how it pans out.


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## High Desert Elk

It is what it is and events will unfold regardless of how much we think we can control it.

Like Vanilla, I don't drink Corona either so nothing to worry about. Busch NA or Heineken 0.0 on the other hand...


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## 3arabians

A lady at work got really sick this week and thought she might have the corona. She was thankful it turned out to be just pneumonia....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## middlefork

On my list of things to worry about this is about 1000 on a list of 1001.

Waking up in the morning is priority # 1. After that I'll deal with it as it comes.


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## Vanilla

Amen middlefork. I would actually swap it though. It's number 1001 on my list of 1000 things to worry about. 

Not discounting the seriousness of things like this, but I can't do anything about it. The aggregate time my two posts on this thread have taken is more time than I have spent thinking about it otherwise.


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## johnnycake

You are all being way too shortsighted about the potential effects here. 

This could actually be the solution to Utah's point creep problem.


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## middlefork

johnnycake said:


> You are all being way too shortsighted about the potential effects here.
> 
> This could actually be the solution to Utah's point creep problem.


I like a glass half full kind of guy. Two thumbs up!


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## BPturkeys

I see pictures and read stories but really, the world( and the "Carona" virus...who actually came up with that name anyway...) does not really exist much more than about 50 miles in any direction from Midvale, Ut.
I have, although, watched with interest the building of a full blown hospital in something like one week. I know the Chinese are a clever little people, but come on, one week, I am thinking this is like most things "Made in China"...it only looks like a hospital. There will be no functionality and will probably break the first time you try and use it.


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## DallanC

BPturkeys said:


> ... and the "Carona" virus...who actually came up with that name anyway


Thats an interesting question, I just looked it up.



> The name "coronavirus" is derived from the Latin corona, meaning crown or halo, which refers to the characteristic appearance of the virus particles (virions): they have a fringe reminiscent of a royal crown or of the solar corona.


"The more you know..." :mrgreen:

-DallanC


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## backcountry

They built the previous hospital for SARS in 7-9 days and it was functional enough to slow it down drastically. You mostly just need a place to isolate those infected and treat those with the worst symptoms to minimize affect on population. Doesn't take anything too fancy. 

It's an elegant virus. I'm mostly curious from the biological side. Given how quickly we can coordinate and respond now I'm not really worried at this stage. 

Even if it turns into an apocalyptic plague there isn't much that we can other than the well established rules like cardio, double tap, buckle up, and beware of bathrooms.


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## DallanC

backcountry said:


> Even if it turns into an apocalyptic plague there isn't much that we can other than the well established rules like cardio, double tap, buckle up, and beware of bathrooms.


LMAO ... Oh man, I really need to go back and watch that. :mrgreen: "Its time to Nut up or Shut up"

-DallanC


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## BPturkeys

DallanC said:


> Thats an interesting question, I just looked it up.
> 
> "The more you know..." :mrgreen:
> 
> -DallanC


There they go again, Dam* scientist sticking their noses in things best left to the marketing people. Of course sometimes marketing doesn't do the best job either, as evidenced by the names of some of the new drugs we see advertises on TV.

Running out of good names in an industry is nothing new. I first noticed this when musical bands started to run out of good names. Where the drug companies just group a bunch of mismatched random letters together and leave it up to the public to figure out the pronunciation, musical bands decided to combine a couple of random words in the hopes that it would invoke some mystical or feeling of "Hip" when one heard they were coming to town. I'll probably catch He** over this, but I' ve even noticed some ethnic groups running out of good names, opting instead for a name with a unusual sound or spelling that somehow might help them be identified with a certain ethnic group.


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## Vanilla

johnnycake said:


> You are all being way too shortsighted about the potential effects here.
> 
> This could actually be the solution to Utah's point creep problem.


Johnnycake, aka Thanos


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## macanudo

It isn't having great effects on the stock market. Which might be a concern to anyone with a 401k.
mac


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## PBH

Whassup?


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## DallanC

PBH said:


> Whassup?


LOL.

Whats going to be hilarious is all the millennials that "dont get it".

-DallanC


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## johnnycake

DallanC said:


> LOL.
> 
> Whats going to be hilarious is all the millennials that "dont get it".
> 
> -DallanC


You do realize that millennials were all born before the Wassup commercials right?


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## DallanC

They still wont get it :mrgreen:


-DallanC


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## Critter




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## Lone_Hunter

I personally don't know what to think of the virus in and of itself yet. To me, mortality numbers mean nothing without knowing how many people are infected to begin with. I like ratios. However this much I know from being exposed to veterinary medicine on a regular basis:

Animals have to have health certifications to travel to different countries. People do not. I know one veterinarian who thinks this is really stupid. Vet's are the front line of defense on contagions passing from animals to humans, and they take this seriously. Said vet I was talking to the other day, told me, that with those 5 confirmed cases, guaranteed there's 50 more people who've been exposed.

Each one of those 5 people. Where did they go to when they got off the plane? Did they stop by a starbucks for coffee? Who was in that starbucks? And from there, where did those people go and who did they have contact with? If this corona virus transmits before symptoms show, they are not going to contain it.


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## backcountry

US enforced quarantines isn't something you see everyday.

The teams working this look into the contacts. We should know in a few days how fast it's spreading stateside given the first person-to-person contact report is now several days old. 

Mortality rate matters as it relates to overall spread. 2% is rather low and that was before international and national measures went into effect. 

If I were a gambling man I'd say China deaths and infections will surpass both SARS and MERS *combined but we'll see a noticeable plateau within a few weeks. Most Western nation's won't likely see 2% death rates. If I was a gambling man.

Still mostly interested in what pans out in long run. The interesting thing about novel viruses like this is how we can apply the new knowledge to existing ones. 

Luckily my wife and I have already talked and come to terms with the fact that she won't likely make it very far into a zombie apocalypse. She knows it. I know it. Glad we have that off the table. Granted, I'd be lucky to make it to season 3 of of a zombie show. Nor would I want to make it to a boss level like Negan. We've advanced well past the 1980s Bowser type scenarios.


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## johnnycake

Official numbers are over 11,000 cases and 259 deaths. 

Pretty significant growth there.


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## High Desert Elk

Critter said:


>


Actually the first time I've seen that commercial, but that was because back then my wife and I made church mice look like the Rockefeller's...


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## DallanC

johnnycake said:


> Official numbers are over 11,000 cases and 259 deaths.
> 
> Pretty significant growth there.


Its becoming concerning this growth is following their projected rates... if it follows it will be 100,000 in about 6 more days. Imagine 2 months from now 

-DallanC


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## 35whelen

i was supposed to go to guangzhou this spring. we will see what happens


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## Critter

DallanC said:


> Its becoming concerning this growth is following their projected rates... if it follows it will be 100,000 in about 6 more days. Imagine 2 months from now
> 
> -DallanC


I think as far as the growth rate you have to look at how they live over there. Large families all living together with other large families, and I have no idea of how their health care is as far as availability or affordability.

I am sure that with any communicable disease that the infection rates are quite high. It is just that this one could kill you.


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## backcountry

I wonder how they compare to models given the numbers we know are confirmed cases which are affected by limitations of testing (delay, maximum rate, changes in those as more resources are thrown at illness, etc). I assume the CDC and WHO have the data to compare to models but we aren't seeing it with the raw number of "confirmed cases". 

All pretty interesting to watch. I'm young enough to weather any financial market hits and have zero control over it anyways. We did but some respirators as my mother-in-laws ALS/FTD makes getting pneumonia life threatening but I'd wager they will be used for home repairs this spring instead.


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## Lone_Hunter

Critter said:


> I think as far as the growth rate you have to look at how they live over there. Large families all living together with other large families, and I have no idea of how their health care is as far as availability or affordability.
> 
> I am sure that with any communicable disease that the infection rates are quite high. It is just that this one could kill you.


You know what, if it's anything like what I saw in South Korea, then I can see it exploding. I don't know if all asian countries are like Korea, but if there are similarities, then it's a breeding ground for all kinds of bacteria and viruses. That said, I imagine they have some stout immune systems.

In a nutshell, at least in Korea, they have a lot of closed up alley ways, no breeze gets in. Lots of vendors, lots of people. Really thick stagnant air, that you could swear you could cut with a knife. Open drainage systems. In korea, we called them "Binjo ditchs" for some reason. Public health sanitation "standards" are wwaaaaayy below ours, no EPA to speak of, the list goes on. China could probably be worse then korea if you look at news reports of how polluted their rivers are, and I'm guessing their population density is really bad.

One thing both countries definitely have in common is people wearing masks. I used to think it was people who had some degree of TB, as there is a higher incidence rate of TB there, but it's just a local custom they do when they get sick. Which isn't a bad idea. I don't think there is much of a concept of personal space in asian countries. They are really packed in, which makes the spread of disease much easier.


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## Vanilla

Dang, I didn’t realize we had some serious epidemiologists here are UWN! 

Impressive folks. Impressive!


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## brisket

Vanilla said:


> Dang, I didn't realize we had some serious epidemiologists here are UWN!
> 
> Impressive folks. Impressive!


I used to work for a small epidemiological research group led by a few epidemiologists. We'd create predictive computer models of how a pandemic could spread throughout the SL valley. We had the entire valley mapped out down to every last residence, grocery store, gym, office, etc. Then we'd run the simulation with an infected person arriving at the airport. He would go home infect his wife and kids. His wife would go to the gym, infect someone else. Kids would infect a percentage of their classmates at school. There were several variables to input such as incubation period, infection rate, death rate and you could predict the carnage of what could happen. Fascinating stuff, really.
At the time we were modeling pertussis, but I'll bet they are plugging in the coronavirus variables now.
One interesting tidbit is how to plan for the dead. There could be so many dead bodies, the morgues wont be able to keep up. The plan was to pile the bodies up at the ice rink.


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## backcountry

Reading up on the different models and variables is interesting. 

Glad I had no interest in that side of biology. I think it'd be hard to compartmentalize such thoughts and knowledge. Appreciate the people who do that work though.


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## PBH

brisket said:


> I used to work for a small epidemiological research group ...


I run this church for loggers...


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## Dunkem

PBH said:


> I run this church for loggers...


Ray Stevens? :mrgreen:


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## PBH

I don't know why.....it just popped in there.


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## wyoming2utah

PBH said:


> I don't know why.....it just popped in there.


Ghostbusters?


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## DallanC

johnnycake said:


> Official numbers are over 11,000 cases and 259 deaths.
> 
> Pretty significant growth there.


You posted that on 02-01-2020. 3 days later its now 20,438 infected, 427 dead. 2% death rate.

The Spanish flu that killed 50,000,000 people had a death rate of 2.5%

-DallanC


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## johnnycake

Yep.


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## caddis8

So not being conspiracy theorist here, but what do you think the real numbers are for actual diagnosed patients and deaths attributed to this? 

China is always guarded about the actual numbers produced and the numbers are usually very skewed to favor them (GDP, yuan exchange rate, etc.)

I read an article yesterday that said it was much, much higher and likely getting worse.


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## backcountry

Wasn't the Spanish Flu estimated between 10-20% mortality rate? They believe tens of millions died in the first 6 months.

I think the 2-3% comes from percent of all human population that died.


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## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Wasn't the Spanish Flu estimated between 10-20% mortality rate? They believe tens of millions died in the first 6 months.
> 
> I think the 2-3% comes from percent of all human population that died, I believe.


That is my understanding as well.

As for the actual numbers vs the official numbers announced by China, I doubt we will ever know the answer to that. I think it is safe to assume the official numbers from China are not inflated and represent an absolute minimum, which is fairly sobering to think about.


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## Vanilla

johnnycake said:


> As for the actual numbers vs the official numbers announced by China, I doubt we will ever know the answer to that. I think it is safe to assume the official numbers from China are not inflated and represent an absolute minimum, which is fairly sobering to think about.


Don't pretend like you all the sudden have a heart now, Thanos!


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## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> Don't pretend like you all the sudden have a heart now, Thanos!


What's the point of enjoying the consumption of countless souls if you aren't sober to remember it?


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## backcountry

Yeah, I think it is definitely fair to assume they aren't inflated. We will probably never fully know.

I am hopeful from the cases elsewhere though. Our first case stateside was 2 weeks ago and we've still kept it at 11 people. Only one person to person transmission so far. Those are promising numbers. 

I feel for the Pacific Rim countries. If there is any significant change in rates they'll feel it first. Watching Japan may be the easiest way to get a full grasp of the viruses behavior given our relationship to them.


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## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Yeah, I think it is definitely fair to assume they aren't inflated. We will probably never fully know.
> 
> I am hopeful from the cases elsewhere though. Our first case stateside was 2 weeks ago and we've still kept it at 11 people. Only one person to person transmission so far. Those are promising numbers.
> 
> I feel for the Pacific Rim countries. If there is any significant change in rates they'll feel it first. Watching Japan may be the easiest way to get a full grasp of the viruses behavior given our relationship to them.


Technically 2 person to person transmissions confirmed in the US. 
https://thehill.com/changing-americ...487-california-husband-and-wife-infected-with


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## backcountry

Thx, forgot about that one.


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## hondodawg

I get almost daily updates from my Union/Employer. So far none of it really concerns me since we don't fly overseas international. But it's being talked a lot about behind the scene among the flight crews. Seems like everyday a new development happens. Just like the cruise ship in Japan, How easily it spread. Maybe I should've bought more food storage and not guns & ammo.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## DallanC

hondodawg said:


> Maybe I should've bought more food storage and not guns & ammo.


Never forget the 4 b's of self sufficiency: Beans, Bacon, Bullets, Bullion. 8)

PS: I just looked on Amazon for surgical masks... its a interesting way to gauge hysteria. They used to sell for about 20cents a mask or 5 for $1... today:

https://www.amazon.com/Dynarex-2201...qid=1580921192&sprefix=surgica,aps,243&sr=8-5

First result was a pack of 50 for $15.50 + $45 shipping. LOL

-DallanC


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## Groganite

So looks like a couple from saint george were on that cruise ship that had 10 passengers and one crew member that were infected...


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## johnnycake

Here's an interesting claim. Tencent is a Chinese mulinational media/internet type company that has been keeping a chart to track the infections, suspected cases, recoveries, and deaths from nCoronavirus. Over the weekend those numbers briefly showed 154,023 confirmed cases, 79,808 suspected, 269 recoveries, and 24,589 deaths, but then was changed to reflect the official numbers from the Chinese government.

Maybe it was a coding error. Maybe Tencent has two sets of numbers for the actual vs official infections/deaths/suspected/recoveries and "accidentally" posted up the "wrong" numbers before getting slapped. If the higher numbers that briefly appeared were correct and leaked, that would corroborate the multiple stories coming out of Wuhan about the overworked crematoriums, bodies piling up in hospitals, etc. And that was several days ago.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594


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## olibooger

More so than the virus itself, I'm worried about the global economic downturn. China feeds a very large portion of global economies, America for sure. Even if the infection remainsthere, the effect is everywhere.


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## backcountry

Not too many worries as I have no control whatsoever.

I am increasingly curious how this will affect the Tokyo Olympic Games. Athletes by and large are healthy, younger people who seem to be less affected by the virus. But we haven't seen the peak yet and we are just starting to get information from the international spread of the disease. Olympic Games are a draw for tens of thousands of tourists from across the world. 

How do you effectively deal with that with such limited knowledge about the virus? I don't envy any of the OIC and logistics on Tokyo, nonetheless the uncertainty facing athletes and support. Most of these athletes get one games that they've spent their entire lives preparing for and it must be nerve racking to just have to wait for the dust to settle.


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## Vanilla

Local news reporting two people in San Juan County being “monitored” as they recently returned from China.


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## johnnycake

This is it folks, 2020 is the year we take a serious chunk outta that point creep problem! 

I would like to preemptively thank SFW, MDF, and Option 2 for all the hard work it took using our money to make this happen.


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## 2full

We are supposed to go on a cruise to the Caribbean the end of this month....... .
Not sure it's such a great idea. 
It's a company trip, all expenses paid. 
I guess we'll see what the big shots decide. 
Was looking forward to some sand between the toes 
Went last year to the Bahamas, was a good trip.


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## backcountry

DallanC said:


> johnnycake said:
> 
> 
> 
> Official numbers are over 11,000 cases and 259 deaths.
> 
> Pretty significant growth there.
> 
> 
> 
> Its becoming concerning this growth is following their projected rates... if it follows it will be 100,000 in about 6 more days. Imagine 2 months from now
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -DallanC
Click to expand...

Luckily numbers are much smaller. 34k is still huge but the growth patterns aren't as exponential as predicted.

Was reading some articles today talking about research into the "super spreaders" and the fact they don't understand why some individuals have such a bigger impact.

Still overall optimistic we'll get this under enough control. Always sad to see do many people die but everytime one of these viruses has such a cascading immune response it makes me hopeful it will lead to a new disease cure.


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## DallanC

backcountry said:


> Luckily numbers are much smaller. 34k is still huge but the growth patterns aren't as exponential as predicted


I dont know what to think about this anymore. On one hand there are reports like you mention the model isnt what they initially thought, and the death rates are fairly low. No reason to worry.

Then on the other hand we start to see footage and reports of people being rounded up and arrested and hauled off to quarantine camps.

As I said in the first post... some of this just doesnt seem to add up, and its all rather strange.






-DallanC


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## backcountry

Sounds like they might be getting close to finding the original vector. They have a very similar match in pangolins from the region. Evidently there is a strong black market for them as they are an endangered species for the region.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00364-2


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## backcountry

Well those "new" infection numbers today aren't good to see. I know they are the result of different counting standards but that was a huge spike after several days of a decreasing infection rate.

Not a good sign China is running low on test kits.


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## Cerko

I hope they will manage to take this virus under control. Currently I am with family in this property in Greece and soon I will have to go to Japan for business purposes for a week. I don't feel comfortable about this idea to be honest, will wear face mask when I am out of the hotel for sure especially in public transport


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## backcountry

Even as a meat loving carnivore who hunts I found this hilarious.



> Pangolin Says It Has More Viruses Where That Came From If People Don't Leave It The **** Alone
> 
> BY PAUL DUNCAN ON FEBRUARY 16, 2020 •
> 
> The ground pangolin stopped in the long, swaying grass of the African veld, and turned to face a visiting reporter who had just asked him if he was aware that a virus that appears to have originated in his species has infected tens of thousands of humans, and may yet infect countless more.
> 
> "Oh yes," he said scratching his long nose in what is generally considered to be the universal pangolin signal that it would like some space, "And there's a lot more where that came from if you and the rest of your horde of hairless planet destroyers don't leave us, and all of the other animals: The ****. Alone."
> 
> Prized for being trapped on this planet with us, pangolins are like all creatures that have come into direct contact with human beings: immediately and horribly exploited.
> 
> Researchers say they wouldn't test the armoured mammals.
> 
> "Or eat them. It really isn't worth it," says Dr. Haffa Napal, at the Kenyan Center For Not Devouring Everything You Voracious Psychopaths.
> 
> "Apart from the possibility of contracting an exotic disease, when thinking about chewing a pangolin you have to ask yourself, really? The first clue that these guys probably don't want to be consumed is that they are covered in hundreds of tiny shields. Which sort of screams, 'Find something else to eat. Have you tried the cassava?'"
> 
> Equipped with a tongue that is longer than its body, the pangolin is considered especially well-equipped to spread diseases that will make the entire human race wish they'd listened to Joaquin Phoenix, and become vegans while they had the chance.
> 
> Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the pangolin said that he'd prefer to not go into the specifics of the diseases his species stands ready to unleash on a particular predator with a penchant for cruise ships and living in extremely close proximity to one another.
> 
> "But let's just say they'll make that relatively benign respiratory disease that you are all hopelessly trying to quarantine right now look like a sniffle. You think coronavirus is bad? Wait until you find out about Pangola."
> 
> For more satire that is either out there, or about there, follow The Out And Abouter on Facebook, or @OutAndAbouter on Twitter.


----------



## DallanC

People are going to be in for a shock come Christmas. Alot of people dont realize the stuff they sell at Christmas is being produced and getting ready for shipment now. Supply chains are extremely long in terms of time to get things designed, created, packaged, shipped etc. Wuhan is one of the major production centers of China... and is severely impacted in creation and shipping of "stuff".

I actually buy alot of things from China, generally electronic components I use in various things I build as a hobby. I've got a bunch of orders placed back around early January... the shipping on these things keeps getting pushed out. I'm now seeing estimated delivery dates out into May, for things that should be arriving NOW.

Everything that uses components from China is going to take a hit... from PVC pipe at homedepot, to new Trucks whose parts come from China.


-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Not to mention the recessions that seem to be forming. Japan looks to be poised to officially enter one at the end of this quarter. 

The economic effects will be widespread even if they are delayed. 

Is what it is. Can't do much about it.


----------



## DallanC

backcountry said:


> Is what it is. Can't do much about it.


Portfolio shifts.

-DallanC


----------



## caddis8

DallanC said:


> Portfolio shifts.
> 
> -DallanC


Ok, so history has shown that emerging markets and moving away from US equities in a cycle like this has generally done well. However, Coronovirus makes me wonder if that is a sound strategy.

There aren't necessarily that many safe options in portfolio shifts that I can see. Oil will trend lower. US Treasuries I see the yield curve inverting again in the next 12 months if I guessed right. Gold is a solid option. US equities will gain in value short term if economic pressure mounts other places and people will come to the US market seeking gains.

If you're not risk averse, do you try to short something?


----------



## DallanC

Probably should already be short on things that put lots of people in the same place. Cruise lines, amusement parks etc etc. If this really goes global, airlines, theater chains, malls, sporting events, concert venues... all will be affected.

The number infected / killed is already much larger than I originally expected it would get to, and its not showing any signs of tapering off.

But, if being short makes someone uncomfortable, build cash ...... if markets tank, there can be some buying opportunities.

-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

Whoa! What was that noise? Did the sky just fall?


----------



## backcountry

I should clarify, I can't control the market. I'm too young to start moving money around because of one event. Before my household retires we'll likely experience a handful of these events and we just don't have the time, skill or energy to thoughtfully mitigate them. 

Recessions seem to be a certainty of life. They seem to hit every decade or so. So it goes. Zero control.

Only person I'm worried for is my mother-in-law. Pneumonia is deadly for ALS-FTD. But we seem to be a long time away from it being an issue here, if ever. But given 80% of cases are mild I'm not worried for the rest of my friends given the rest of the information we have. Daily infection rates have dropped drastically since the end of January and that includes the new, very aggressive counting criteria. 

Still very interesting. If anything I'm impressed with how much we've learned since H1N1.


----------



## backcountry

Interesting threaded tweet. Less optimistic than much of what I've read:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html


----------



## Critter

Have you heard the latest? It appears that a Senator from Arkansas it suggesting the possibility of it coming from a biochemical lab nearby.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/sen-tom-cotton-coronavirus-origins

,


----------



## DallanC

I heard that the week the new broke. Its the same place SARS started up. 

I dont believe it came from the bio lab, especially when they were able to track the DNA to Pangolin's, and more specifically, a Pangolin bitten by a bat.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

News out of Italy isn't good. I don't compliment Trump much but his stringent quarantine protocol likely prevented or slowed an outbreak here. Grateful for those choices, including going against WHO recommendations and controlling international travel.

I'm starting to wonder if this won't become a stock virus for much of the world as it's spreads so rapidly and without symptoms in many cases. Hard to imagine a case of it not finding a permanent reservoir in human populations somewhere.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

Heard the DNA linked up to Pangolins. They are the NEW "ivory trade in other words they have been killing them by the thousands for medicine that don't work just like lots of other animals. Sounds like mother nature payback and we're all going to this time.


----------



## middlefork

Everything I've read indicates that the masks are no defense in contracting the virus.

I have nothing against your admonishment to wash hands and touching your face. Good advice for the flu and common cold too.

I'll admit I've been a little lax on the 6-12 month supply of food and water but what I don't have I can take from my unarmed neighbor.

To me it is still a very low threat. But I have my tin foil hat ready when it is needed. ;-)


----------



## backcountry

80% of cases are mild. Only 2%-ish of infected die (still high) and that is heavily biased to 60-80 year old men with underlying health problems. And that's data from early stages largely outside Western medical intervention (Italy could be telling in the long run).

It's not waterborne nor is that an issue anywhere. 

Having hand sanitizer and soap never hurts. Good sanitation is key this time of year anyways. 

You should only need masks if you have someone sick in your household or have someone at high risk of transmission being fatal. Even then we are weeks or months away from that being serious in the US. Possibly even could be next year if it becomes an annual illness. Point being, healthy people causing a run on masks will make the situation worse.

This is more like a horrible flu than something out of the movie Contagion. Horrible and saddening but not apocalyptic. And right now US is still at very low levels of risk.


----------



## Dunkem

Ok, here we go, my neighbor just bought 30 55 gallon barrels, 25 5 gallon buckets with lids. She is going to fill all of them this week. Me I am not that worried ---yet. This some serious stuff, but we have these virus around us daily. I worry some because I am older, but we shall see.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, I feel for older men with underlying health problems, especially in Asia and now Italy. I'm guessing Americans won't experience as a high of a mortality rate given our hospital care. I think it could really be dangerous for any older man (like 70+) who already has serious or life threatening medical problems (dialysis, immunocompromised, etc). But that's already the case with a bad influenza strain.

Even then the only real solution is to aggressively wash hands and reduce contact with your face. Limiting social contact is viable for people who are retired but if it's truly passed from asymptomatic carriers than that becomes less helpful. Quarantine just won't be an option for most people until it's transmitted. 

The cool thing is they are talking aggressive timelines for medical treatment even compared to a decade ago. Technology in genetics and epidemiology has just progressed so much in that timeline. I wouldn't be shocked if we have a major advancement in dealing with this novel coronavirus by April or May. The world is just throwing so many resources at it. And they've already mapped much of the key components.

But maybe I'm too optimistic about human talent. Either way, it's out of my hands.


----------



## middlefork

You should be good. You know where she lives :smile:

I'm in that "older" age bracket too. If my kids and grand kids are smart and yes lucky then maybe things will be good. Other wise I guess it is back to the old 1960's drill, bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.


----------



## middlefork

Everything I've read says hand to mouth / eye. It doesn't appear to be an airborne virus.
The masks are more for preventing the transfer to hands.


----------



## Vanilla

Look, I’m not trying to downplay the seriousness of this, or the tragedy for those individuals and families that have already been impacted around the world. But I think a bit of perspective is still necessary here. I pulled this from a quote out of the Des News about this year’s flu season. 


“... At least 19 million people in the U.S. have experienced flu illnesses this season, the CDC estimates. About 180,000 people have been hospitalized so far, and an estimated 10,000 have died. Sixty-eight children have died from this flu season,” Marketwatch reported.

If these totals just from this flu season were attributed to coronavirus, there is no doubt there would be mass panic and effectually no limit of resources being thrown at it. But this is “just the flu.”

Again, not trying to down play it, but only offer some perspective. 1 year of food storage is a good policy anyway. We all could likely be better prepared for emergencies that could be imminent and we have no control over. But let’s not lose our minds here, folks. Just sayin.


----------



## backcountry

Panic? Definitely not. No benefit and some things exacerbate spread, like hoarding of unneeded medical supplies. 

Always good to have emergency preparedness but no reason to even think our food or water supply chains will be seriously affected. Most people recover in a few weeks at most and the spread is such that not everyone will get it at once so worker shortages will be minimal (80% cases are mild). 

But this is different than the seasonal flu. It's a novel strain of virus that is highly contagious and has a mortality rate almost 20x that of seasonal flu. The CDC today changed their rhetoric and are stating it will affect the US, they just don't know how severely. They are no longer downplaying the risk.

Sadly that means we will likely see a viral pandemic worse than we've seen in a decade. Pandemic isn't a scary word necessarily but it does mean the world is about to experience the spread of a virus we don't fully understand yet. Even if it only affects 100 million Americans that could mean 2 million deaths stateside, which is a serious number. 

Fingers crossed the virus hits/peaks here during summer and is delayed enough that those most affected, people over 70 (though largely 80) with underlying health problems, can have access to viable prevention. If so than the mortality and infection rates could be much lower than current data shows.

Whatever the case this seems like it will be with the world for a few years.


----------



## backcountry

This is why it's appropriately talked as something much more significant than the seasonal flu:

"This is an unprecedented, potentially severe health challenge globally.”

That was HSS Secretary Azar today. The federal government is now speaking to fellow agencies and Americans in a serious tone about the broader implications we are almost certain to face as it technically jumps to a global pandemic. They are already speaking of moving from containment, which is what we've done up until now, to mitigation. That means preparing regional hospitals with unique protocol, upping national production of medical supplies (we have been barely avoiding a shortage crisis with saline as is), a massive push for a vaccine, and educating workplaces on proper prevention and mitigation. 

Unlike the seasonal flu we have no means of creating herd immunity to slow the transmission rate. Evidently they are saying 12-18 months as a likely vaccine timeline which means we should expect international impact until next spring. 

Given the data I'm not too worried for anyone 55 or under. Even pretty good reason to believe anyone up to 70 should be fine. But our household is at risk. Both ALS and FTD leave patients are extreme risk with any respiratory infections, as the diaphragm weakens the ability to expell properly. My wife's school goes to Europe in a few weeks and on a good year that still means an infection works it's way through the student body and faculty after they return. This isn't a good year and it could be timed with it spreading throughout the continent. We are going to have to be real careful to protect my mother-in-law in the months to come.

So it goes. Only real viable response is a strong focus on sanitation. We are already good on that end but will just be more rigid about hands and face touching. Other than that it's like most of life...no real control over what happens.


----------



## Vanilla

In no way was my post comparing coronavirus to the seasonal flu. I'm simply offering perspective on the level of panic. 

We have people even in this thread talking like this is the zombie apocalypse. We've got those buying up existing supplies of face masks, cleaning out Emergency Essentials, and have people buying up every last bucket with a lid that poor Home Depot has in the store. We need some perspective on this one. 

That said, the seasonal flu has killed an estimated 10,000 people this year in the United States. I'd be willing to bet we don't lose 10,000 Americans to coronavirus in the next year. So again, just some perspective on what we're talking about here.


----------



## DallanC

It only took an announcement of 283 infected people in Italy to cause entire cities to be quarantined, and travel restricted in that country.

Google picture of supermarkets in Italy after the news broke of the outbreak there. They were cleaned out of food and supplies in a matter of hours. Corona or not, its not a bad idea to make sure you have some bulk foods on hand. 

As for the 55 and younger are safe... look at nearly all of the original attending doctors working the hospital where Corona first showed up. All dead now... young, smart doctors working in hospitals where they could get great care. 

Anyone see the non-symptomatic Iranian Health Minister break out in sweats during their news broadcast trying to reassure the populace not to be worried about Corona? He literally broke out in sweats on TV during the broadcast, which turned out be caused by Corona. Pretty wild timing.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Given the response from CDC and HSS I would sadly wager figures pushing well above 10,000 people dying from COVID-19 this year, without a milestone vaccine popping up sooner than normal, are viable. Not certain but definitely in the range to prepare for. Even H1N1 killed 12,500+ Americans, according to medical analysis. Part of that analysis is that seasonal flu death figures are normally averages so it wouldn't be unusual to see much higher numbers. And the CDC and HSS use phrases like "unprecedented" fairly conservatively. 

Definitely not an apocalypse. I don't see much benefit in going bugout mode anytime soon. Grocery stores selling out will likely happen but that is the case the first few days of most events of this scale. They'll resupply quick enough. I say that as someone who has less than some on here for emergency supplies but we always do our best to have 30-45 days of food at all times.

The run on masks sucks but is sadly predictable. I remember a run on duct tape and plastic sheeting for H1N1 (I believe it was that in the aughts). The mask situation is more dire though and I would hope we don't escalate that much further as they are needed for actual patients, those at high risk and healthcare workers. That was discussed openly today during the hearings and a large portion of the proposed $1 billion budget request will be to mass produce such things. 

Once again, it sucks but not zombie apocalypse sucks. But I have a hard time not changing gears from even a week ago.


----------



## backcountry

I hedged on saying we should consider more than 100,000 deaths as I was nervous that seemed extreme. But looking at seasonal flu data I think its a fair number to consider. Here are the range of estimates the CDC has analyzed since 2010. This year was mild, so far, but deaths from "disease burden" often range from 11-95,000 depending on severity of the strain. Like many viral infections we have to estimate as we don't always tests (we don't have enough kits for a US outbreak of Covid-19) and only a small portion of people seek medical help before it reaches a severe stage.

I would be shocked if medical analysis doesn't push Covid-19 related fatalities well above 100k for this year after all data is collected (probably not until 2022). Assuming we actually experience a global pandemic and national outbreak. More power to medical experts if we don't.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html


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## Kevin D

Well, this might be the answer to point creep......:faint:


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I think it's safe to say my wife and I are officially worried when between the two of us, we are buying up hand sanitizer from the store, bringing surgical masks home from work, and discussing the pro's and cons of bugging out in the 5th wheel (and where to), vs sheltering in place at home.

To put things in perspective from our end, without giving up too much personal info, my wife is shall we say.. medically trained and is far more knowledgeable then your average layman like myself. One of her colleagues seems to think this will end up effecting as many as 500 million people and the 2% death rate coming out of china is BS.

Yesterday they also got what I assume is a canned letter from the CDC saying they are going to have to start implementing precautions to businesses, schools, public areas, etc for the coronoa virus. I think everyone is scratching their heads at that trying to understand how to interpret that letter. To be fair, I haven't seen this letter, my wife only texted me about it when she was told about it, so what I'm saying is 2nd hand info tantamount to "my brothers, sisters ex room mate told me that....."

At any rate, here is some interesting booksmarks to keep:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This guy has been putting out some pretty good videos from a medical perspective:
https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos


----------



## DallanC

I work for one of the largest world wide corporations, in a health care division. We are getting some pretty wild emails detailing company mandated travel requirements. On the last email Monday mentioned they are bringing in on-site medical staff for all locations world wide (we have 2 in SLC) as well as additional onsite medical supply's.

Kindof an interesting development. The penny pinchers must be spooked to sign off that extra expense.

-DallanC


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## backcountry

Info from CDC has been pretty clear so far.

All hospitals and clinics should prepare to be overwhelmed with patients if/when an outbreak hits the US. Prepare to triage the elderly and most severe cases. Hold off on unnecessary surgeries. Offer telemedicine if you can.

Businesses should have generous sick leave policy for mass illness. This especially includes telecommuting policy to keep business operating. 

Civilians should understand the importance of "social distancing" if sick or around sick people. This is actually the most important part of moving from "containment" (which appears to be failing worldwide) to "mitigation". It slows spread to societally manageable levels. Fewer people sick at once. 

It means in the coming months, if the US has an outbreak, that we should all plan on canceling group events. Stay home with ANY signs of respiratory illness. Shop as little as possible. And practice sanitation with utmost priority, ie wash hands for 20 seconds and don't touch face.

Bugging out only works if you can disappear for 12-18 months. 

The key thing to know is we are doing this mostly to help anyone over 55-60 and mostly for individuals over 75-80. People under 55 who get infected will likely just experience bad flu like symptoms, ie the real flu: sick for 7-14 days, fever, chills, pain, etc. Miserable but manageable.

Definitely not the zombie apocalypse. But serious enough to change habits for average Americans to reduce risk for the medically vulnerable. Likely until as late as next spring or summer until a "cure" is mass produced.

500 million sounds very possible worldwide, that's only 1 in 15 affected. I would wager that number goes into next year given mitigation techniques in West and draconian methods being used in places like China. Could be much less or could go higher, who knows.


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## backcountry

That seems like a great video source, Lone Hunter. I've largely stayed away from social media sources on this but he seems to take a reasonable and thoughtful stance in educating his viewers.

Thanks for sharing.


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## hondodawg

Great.... I work in a metal tube packed with a couple of hundred people. This could do some serious damage to the traveling US public. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## caddis8

Ok, so first US case of unkown origin in Northern California. What is now the thought and protocol? 

Stock Market doesn't like it. Dallan what are your thoughts? There are some technical things at play also with the stock market, I don't blame all of it on coronovirus.


----------



## DallanC

I think global manufacturing has been disrupted enough as of right now, to feel the effects a year from now. How much longer it will continue to be disrupted has yet to be determined.

What is scary is the reports out of China with the smaller companies that are virtually forced to suspend work, they are running out of money and we will start to see the first of these going into bankruptcy in the next 30-60 days. Larger companies with bigger bank accounts can last a bit longer. Its going to be a domino effect, with companies failing.

The "effects" of corona virus, are spreading faster than the virus itself atm. I was optimistic originally that it would be overblown, but after the past week of developments, I'm convinced this is going to lead us into a massive recession. Sadly the Federal Reserve has very little in terms of ammunition to fight a recession... could they even take interest rates negative? Disastrous thought.

I do know this however, everyone is alot poorer today with the 3rd major drop in stock prices, even if you own stock or not. Those earlier in this thread that thought this wouldnt affect them, or they could recover from this... ugh, I so hope i'm wrong and they are right... but it doesnt look like it right now. The amount I lost over the past 3 days is enough to push out my retirement plans 5 years.

I still don't think actual infections or death are a concern... but its effecting and destroying the global economy at a rapid pace. Earnings reports come Oct are going to be abysmal... unless of course you went long in physical metals last year... if so then its Christmas for those folk.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

The lockdown quarantine effects will definitely have a delayed impact that we are just starting to see. 

Our accounts will definitely show a hit but we have decades to weather the trends. Everything I'm reading is showing that 2020 will likely be pretty tumultuous for the markets and it could take most of the year to recover from these coronavirus losses especially since we probably haven't hit the bottom yet. 

Thoughts are definitely with anyone hoping to retire this year based on anything in the market. 

Did I read correctly that many of the "surgical masks" the medical industry uses are made in China? A quick look at Amazon shows vultures are moving into the market to fill it up with untested and non-certified products. Sad but predictable human behavior.

Will be interesting to see how long it takes the US to officially switch from containment to mitigation. Doesn't seem like we need to yet and I heard if this holds up then we are looking at a few weeks.

I'm confused by mortality rate numbers. When you look at the data there have been 2800 deaths and only 82000 confirmed cases. That puts mortality rate at a minimum of 3.4%. But even that seems to be low as the "closed cases" puts it at 8%. Those are pretty intimidating numbers compared to the original 2% the WHO originally released and still seem to be using. I don't know how they decide on the official number versus running total though.

A lot to think about. If we have an outbreak it seems likely that the US will have a faster spike as our government can't behave like China. Definitely going to be an interesting few months. Fingers crossed we are just being over prepared and we all look back at this in a decade with vague memories.


----------



## brisket

backcountry said:


> Did I read correctly that many of the "surgical masks" the medical industry uses are made in China? A quick look at Amazon shows vultures are moving into the market to fill it up with untested and non-certified products. Sad but predictable human behavior.


They are simply filling a need in the marketplace where demand exists. The alternative to this is a shortage of masks. Better to have more masks that are not "certified", than no masks available at all.


----------



## DallanC

About masks, the particulates that need to be filtered are small enough they pass through standard surgical masks (cheap ones anyway). Masks need to be N95 rated or better. THOSE masks are selling for one helluva lot now. They also need to be fitted to your face to make a tight seal. 

I always thought those prepper guys that bought the WWII surplus gas masks were nuts... maybe time will show those guys werent all that nutty lol (and while I do have a "bit" of prepper stuff, I dont own a gas mask 8).

Also: The University of Utah sent out a email yesterday detailing their coronavirus preperations and initial plans. They are taking it very seriously atm.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

brisket said:


> They are simply filling a need in the marketplace where demand exists. The alternative to this is a shortage of masks. Better to have more masks that are not "certified", than no masks available at all.


Passionately disagree; marketplace theory doesn't hold up to medical reality in these unique cases.

No mask at all is better than a mask that gives a false sense of safety/mitigation. Generically speaking, people tend to increase risky behavior if they believe, even falsely, that the gear they have mitigates even a mild portion of that risk. An uncertified surgical mask is highly unlikely (likely zero chance) to prevent catching this virus if it's already dispersed and therefore has a strong probability of increasing transmission. (To be fair, most of us won't benefit from surgical masks no matter how ubiquitous they are in Asia).

Medical professionals have been saying for a long time that surgical masks only protect us from fear as is. And a healthy dose of fear is pretty important in a pandemic.

Side note.... Certified surgical masks are used for people showing signs of respiratory illness because they severely reduce the amount of particulates that become dispersed. Hence why hoarding masks is doubly dangerous as the goal is to reduce transmission from carriers. But even certified surgical masks can't statistically prevent a healthy person from getting sick when the virus is heavily dispersed in the environment. They just can't physically stop a virus .1-.2 microns in size from being inhaled. Even a properly fitted N95 mask is only tested to .3 microns to prevent transmission of particles that size 95% of the time. But we know masks that are certified increase rigor in design compared to ones that don't and often prevent smaller particles than testing demands from 50-90% of the time. There is a reason we certify medical equipment; it works.


----------



## Vanilla

I work in a world that often gathers large numbers of people together in conference venues. I have a trip to Florida coming in 2 weeks that will gather a couple thousand people. Another one in April with a few hundred here in SLC. I have wondered all along how long it would take before we start getting warnings to not attend large gatherings of people. 

It's probably only a matter of time before that becomes the recommendation. I remember the travel advisories with SARS, and we can probably expect something of that like again. 

I need more time to go fishing this spring and summer anyway.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, anything travel and conference related is going to take a hit. I think the service industry is going to feel some serious pain.

Video conferencing software is likely to enjoy a spike in subscriptions though. My wife's industry relies heavily on conferences and face to face marketing. They'll adapt but it will be an awkward transition. But they can/will fallback on protecting the welfare of their student body to justify the changes. Hard to argue with that. The medical and academic team of her small business started early talks already.

A year of extra fishing sounds pleasant.


----------



## DallanC

backcountry said:


> A year of extra fishing sounds pleasant.


LOL. I was just thinking the safest place to be to avoid catching Corona is sitting in a boat in the middle of a lake fishing. Totally going to sell my wife on that idea tonight.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints just announced they have postponed their normal leadership meetings that occur with their April general conference for general authorities and other leaders and have excused leaders from around the world from coming that would normally attend. They will all stay where they are at and not travel. 

They also have discouraged members from around the world from traveling to the United States and Utah for general conference. 

Seems like a wise prevention based move.


----------



## brisket

backcountry said:


> Passionately disagree; marketplace theory doesn't hold up to medical reality in these unique cases.
> 
> No mask at all is better than a mask that gives a false sense of safety/mitigation. Generically speaking, people tend to increase risky behavior if they believe, even falsely, that the gear they have mitigates even a mild portion of that risk. An uncertified surgical mask is highly unlikely (likely zero chance) to prevent catching this virus if it's already dispersed and therefore has a strong probability of increasing transmission. (To be fair, most of us won't benefit from surgical masks no matter how ubiquitous they are in Asia).


 Passionately disagree with your passionate disagreement. Marketplace theory holds up just fine and will save lives if the government gets out of the way. Why can't a company make the equivalent (or better) of a N95 mask, sell it at a lower cost without the overhead of certification? It'll get more product to the market filling the current demand and if the coronavirus gets ugly, it could save thousands or tens of thousands of lives. On the other hand, if there is a shortage of masks, the opposite could happen, people die.

Reminds me of a scene from Tommy Boy:


----------



## brisket

DallanC said:


> I think global manufacturing has been disrupted enough as of right now, to feel the effects a year from now. How much longer it will continue to be disrupted has yet to be determined.
> 
> What is scary is the reports out of China with the smaller companies that are virtually forced to suspend work, they are running out of money and we will start to see the first of these going into bankruptcy in the next 30-60 days. Larger companies with bigger bank accounts can last a bit longer. Its going to be a domino effect, with companies failing.
> 
> The "effects" of corona virus, are spreading faster than the virus itself atm. I was optimistic originally that it would be overblown, but after the past week of developments, I'm convinced this is going to lead us into a massive recession. Sadly the Federal Reserve has very little in terms of ammunition to fight a recession... could they even take interest rates negative? Disastrous thought.
> 
> I do know this however, everyone is alot poorer today with the 3rd major drop in stock prices, even if you own stock or not. Those earlier in this thread that thought this wouldnt affect them, or they could recover from this... ugh, I so hope i'm wrong and they are right... but it doesnt look like it right now. The amount I lost over the past 3 days is enough to push out my retirement plans 5 years.
> 
> I still don't think actual infections or death are a concern... but its effecting and destroying the global economy at a rapid pace. Earnings reports come Oct are going to be abysmal... unless of course you went long in physical metals last year... if so then its Christmas for those folk.
> 
> -DallanC


Agreed, the supply chains are being disrupted and will have ramifications. Time will tell how bad it will get, hopefully it'll be a small blip, but it could get ugly. I'm glad I took your advice earlier in the thread and did some portfolio shifting prior to the crash this week.

You're right, the Federal Reserve doesn't have a lot of ammo. They have two tools: lower rates and/or inflate the money supply (print money/quantitative easing). The problem is the Federal Reserve is responsible for inflating the current bubble by lowering interest rates and quantitative easing they did in the years after the housing bubble burst. The fed creates the boom/bust business cycle, then tries to fix it doing the same things that created the boom in the first place. It's like throwing gasoline on a fire and only makes the next bubble worse. #EndTheFed

It might be the coronavirus that pops the current bubble, it might not, I guess we'll see. I'm crossing my fingers for a couple more years of milking the current bubble before the next recession. Either way it's a good reminder to check your preps and fill any holes you have.


----------



## Vanilla

Chicken wings! 

One of my favorite scenes in all of cinema. My brothers and I use “chicken wings” every time we have something big coming up that we need to nail. 

Chicken wings.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

Vanilla said:


> Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints just announced they have postponed their normal leadership meetings that occur with their April general conference for general authorities and other leaders and have excused leaders from around the world from coming that would normally attend. They will all stay where they are at and not travel.
> 
> They also have discouraged members from around the world from traveling to the United States and Utah for general conference.
> 
> Seems like a wise prevention based move.


I think they should just have it all on TV with no audience attending this time for something this important and not put everyone in Utah at risk. They could still get their message out to all the members. People would understand.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Give this 2 weeks. A month at most. It's about to explode here. If commerce stops and no goods get to stores, watch for civil unrest.
> Point creep may not matter this season. When people are hungry, point creep will be the last consideration to harvest an animal.
> 
> We are about to see how crazy those conspiracy theorists really are. Silver and gold havent moved yet. When it does, it will only go so far before the big financial reset. Prepare for a lot of change.


I'm going to take the "under" on this one.


----------



## derekp1999




----------



## Lone_Hunter

olibooger said:


> Give this 2 weeks. A month at most. It's about to explode here. If commerce stops and no goods get to stores, watch for civil unrest.


Oh, come on now, this isn't Venezuela. While I will agree that the likelihood of containing the virus is much lower then the likelihood of it creeping across the country, I don't think we're looking at zombie apocalypse scenario.

This isn't the black plague.

Aside from that, if civil unrest were to ever happen in Utah, I suspect it wouldn't go very far, especially in Utah county.


----------



## backcountry

Brisket,

These aren't companies making the N95 equivalent masks. That takes design, resourcing materials and quality control. These are vultures selling sub-standard paper contraptions that even the emperor wouldn't add to his collection of invisible clothes.

A handful of mask companies have shown up in the last few years (think RZ) and are trying third party validation. That won't meet "N95" certification without going through NIOSH process but educated consumers can look at thr test results to see micron filtration. The masks on Amazon aren't that. They are made by sketchy manufacturers in other parts of Asia with zero testing, certification, or medical-grade quality control. They don't even try to list basic filtration information. They are a danger to citizens during an outbreak. 

Please do not encourage citizens to use uncertified, untested and poorly controlled knock offs. They won't save lives and slow transmission if they don't filter viruses, ie minimum of .3 microns. And a run on masks and hoarding will kill people. 

(PS...I totally support the government working with non-traditional manufacturers during this epidemic to increase production. We have a deficit of 270 million masks for this outbreak and the government should help companies expedite design, sourcing and testing at moments like this. But that is because none of us should want non-medical grade respirators being used by health workers and the infirm. 3M and other certified manufacturers are already ramping up production and focusing distribution on healthcare workers and government workers, like CDC teams being deployed)

(PSS...this doesn't even begin to deal with the counterfeit masks coming out of China that do claim N95 certification. We've been dealing with that for years and it poses a danger as well, hence buying from reputable sources)


----------



## backcountry

Probably the biggest shock of this is Vanilla and I will be in agreement more. Definitely going with the under on this one too.

But maybe that is a sign it's worse than we realize. 😁


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Probably the biggest shock of this is Vanilla and I will be in agreement more. Definitely going with the under on this one too.
> 
> But maybe that is a sign it's worse than we realize. &#128513;


Just to be clear, is the "under" that the corona/zombie apocalypse will occur in less than 2 weeks or more than 2 weeks?


----------



## 3arabians

Finally!!! My lifelong dream of taking my family into the wilderness and living off the land is coming true!! 

#jeremiahbaby!! #skinsomegrizzsoon


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Probably the biggest shock of this is Vanilla and I will be in agreement more. Definitely going with the under on this one too.
> 
> But maybe that is a sign it's worse than we realize. &#128513;
> 
> 
> 
> Just to be clear, is the "under" that the corona/zombie apocalypse will occur in less than 2 weeks or more than 2 weeks?
Click to expand...

&#128540;

If I read Vanilla right, I don't think we'll see Brad Pitt globe trotting to save the world anytime soon.

But I'd put a fair amount of money on more than two weeks if anyone wants to take that bet. But I'd want to define zombies first. I wouldn't want someone to accidentally shoot Bill Murray in the head, again.


----------



## Vanilla

I’m taking the under on the apocalypse in general. The most dangerous thing about these situations are posts like oilybooger’s. Not just a post on a random Internet forum, but that mentality. 

This virus may get bad. We may have a major outbreak. We may lose far too many people because of it. All that is tragic and I’m not trying to downplay it. That is truly tragic, and my heart aches for people being impacted already and will in the future. 

All that said, the only reason we would get to the point of complete anarchy, civil unrest, and people having to head to the hills to kill animals because they are starving is if WE make it that way. Coronavirus won’t cause that. We ought to be keeping everyone with those thoughts under quarantine. I worry much more about them and the problems they will cause to me and my family than I do the virus itself.


----------



## backcountry

The American economy will recover. We have no clue how long this will last but we've always bounced back. Heck, this might be another flare on why we should retool American factories but I'm not holding my breath on that one.

I do have to admit an error I made earlier. I'm eating crow on travel bans working. Evidently the medical experts I read didn't read studies about long term analysis. Not only do they not decrease total cases but they don't even reduce the fatality totals. Analysis shows they just actually increase fear and panic. It seemed obvious that a delay of a few weeks would help but that doesn't turn out to be true. Sorry for spreading that misinformation.

*Social distancing is different than travel bans and quarantines.


----------



## backcountry

You might want to reflect on why everyone responds this way.

The previous crash was global in scale. We "recovered" without roving bands of illegal hunters or mass looting, crime, etc. It hurts and some citizens are still struggling a decade later but society didn't collapse.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I do have to admit an error I made earlier. I'm eating crow on travel bans working. Evidently the medical experts I read didn't read studies about long term analysis. Not only do they not decrease total cases but they don't even reduce the fatality totals. Analysis shows they just actually increase fear and panic. It seemed obvious that a delay of a few weeks would help but that doesn't turn out to be true. Sorry for spreading that misinformation.
> 
> *Social distancing is different than travel bans and quarantines.


I read a good article on the subject this morning.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/quarantines-wont-save-us-from-coronavirus/

As for the markets, they were due for a correction from very recent all time highs. Corona was the trigger/excuse, and it has been a bit painful, but it was also inevitable and overdue. (Kind of like what happened to our deer herds last year.)


----------



## brisket

backcountry said:


> (PS...I totally support the government working with non-traditional manufacturers during this epidemic to increase production. We have a deficit of 270 million masks for this outbreak and the government should help companies expedite design, sourcing and testing at moments like this. But that is because none of us should want non-medical grade respirators being used by health workers and the infirm. 3M and other certified manufacturers are already ramping up production and focusing distribution on healthcare workers and government workers, like CDC teams being deployed)


Sorry, you lost me at "the government should help companies expedite". When has any government in the history of governments ever helped expedite anything? Government slows everything down, increases cost and decreases quality. Go work for a government agency at any level and you'll start to understand the inefficiencies and bureaucracy. Good luck to anyone who is looking to the gov to save them in times of crisis.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Just because nothing bad has happened besides the depression. Doesn't mean it wint happen again. Except this time on a global scale. It would be foolish to believe man kind is untouchable amongst each other especially considering who holds all the power


Nothing bad has happened in the world other than the Great Depression? Wow, that's an interesting take. Tell us more about that.

Mankind is touchable. Absolutely, we are touchable. I'm simply saying that stoking this idea that we are going to be killing each other here in the next two weeks, or "a month at the most" because there is no food or water or goods or anything else but virus infected people walking around getting shot by oilybooger with his AR-15.

The virus is going to have an impact, both on a personal level in hurt and loss, but also on the markets. That's okay, it is not the end of the world. You can try and act like it is, but I can quote you out of the same book where it says "no man knoweth." I think that includes you.


----------



## caddis8

*Tin Foil Hat Time- Conspiracy Question*

I read the article that Senator Cotton said that COVID19 came from a biological lab in Wuhan and dismissed it at face value.

Not knowing anything about epidimiology, would the soucre of pangolin bitten by an bat be more plausible from an unitentinal (or inentional) infection from a lab in Wuhan?

With US/China trade tention very high and tarriffs and machismo being high between both, would a bad actor deploy something like this? I wouldn't think that China would unleash something like that on its own people to hurt a trading partner and weaken its position.

I thought of it because the stock market hadn't really had much reaction to it prior to this week, and this week in the crapper, I thought could it be plausible (but not probable) that an entity would deploy something like this to disrupt economic activity. However, there are no winners here except mask manufacturors, and pharmaceuticals racing for a cure.

The economic impact has been eye opening to me, but it is more secondary economic impact of consumers being locked up and production being halted because of it.

Maybe the $100b assets set aside for a rainy day by the Church (agree or not with it) is sitting in liquid assets suddenly?

I've actually learned a lot from this thread and there are a lot of smart people. I would love to share a campfire sometime with you all and solve life's problems together. But it would have to be a dual trip fishing and hunting to make it worth it.


----------



## backcountry

brisket said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> (PS...I totally support the government working with non-traditional manufacturers during this epidemic to increase production. We have a deficit of 270 million masks for this outbreak and the government should help companies expedite design, sourcing and testing at moments like this. But that is because none of us should want non-medical grade respirators being used by health workers and the infirm. 3M and other certified manufacturers are already ramping up production and focusing distribution on healthcare workers and government workers, like CDC teams being deployed)
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry, you lost me at "the government should help companies expedite". When has any government in the history of governments ever helped expedite anything? Government slows everything down, increases cost and decreases quality. Go work for a government agency at any level and you'll start to understand the inefficiencies and bureaucracy. Good luck to anyone who is looking to the gov to save them in times of crisis.
Click to expand...

No one here is waiting for the government to save us. But flooding the market with a couple billion dollars does tend to expedite things, like mask production by 3M. Or vaccine production. Or mapping the structure and RNA of a novel coronavirus.

You are putting ideology ahead of facts.

PS..."expedite" in this case means things like staffing the NIOSH labs heavily and making the protocol testing free and fast (but still accurate and safe) for anyone with the means to ramp up production of N95 masks. Or even subsidizing increased resource allocation to produce the masks. Many small manufacturers are limited by funds, nothing else.


----------



## backcountry

There is always the small chance this is a manufactured virus designed to benefit someone in some fashion. Not likely and we don't have evidence to substantiate the scale and scope of such an idea.

Not to mention these things cost tons of money to design and manufacture. You'd want to do it right if doing it all. A virus that causes a disease that mostly kills the elderly and infirm doesn't seem elegant enough to meet that criteria. 

From biology classes, you'd want a virus that spreads fast and kills rather indiscriminately as the big impact comes from hurting military age citizens or the workforce. This isn't doing that. And the transmission rate is a little too slow as the disease shows symptoms rather fast.

This seems to fit the bill of a virus that accidentally jumped to humans because of dangerous habits like "wet markets". You have a population that is highly concentrated and sadly still uses (poverty, tradition, etc) live animals that harbor these coronaviruses that are zoonotic. That's a perfect recipe for probability to bite humanity in the arse. I'm not shocked we keep stumbling into these issues and even if we eliminated wet markets we'd likely still see viral outbreaks from sprawl in "under-developed" parts of the world.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> I'm taking the under on the apocalypse in general. The most dangerous thing about these situations are posts like oilybooger's. Not just a post on a random Internet forum, but that mentality.


It's always a battle to maintain perspective. I think a lot can be learned by looking at the statistics outside of china, and keeping in mind the specifics of each country. Some countries are 2, or 3rd world nations. Others have really high population density, or varying standards in public sanitation, or poor medical facilities. All these factors come into play.

Here in the states, I suspect the transmission rate will depend on area. For instance, I totally get why San Franscatco went on full alert, given the conditions there between population density and public sanitation, ANY major disease would probably spread like wildfire. In metro areas like ours, the major thing would be to limiting ones exposure to the general public as much as possible. Our achilies heel would be, Sunday church, Sunday family dinners, and our children... being the petri dish vector's that they are. I suspect THAT is how any virus will spread quickly here in Utah. You can elect to stay home from church and family dinners, but it's going to be hard to keep your kids at home.

As an aside, while our health insurance is a total mess, we still have some of the best healthcare in the world. Statistically speaking, we have 60 known cases, with zero deaths in the states. That will probably change if hospitals become over loaded, but even then, the corona virus seems to effect the elderly the most. Odds are, most people would survive it, and feel like they just came down with a bad flu and that would be the end of it.

Back to statics, I said statistics outside of china. I said that because China itself is a communist country that has positioned itself as the worlds factory of goods, and they are in damage control mode. I've seen small clips of what appears to be TV PSA's coming from China, the propaganda of "Everything is fine, go back to work." is obvious. I found it amusing.



> All that said, the only reason we would get to the point of complete anarchy, civil unrest, and people having to head to the hills to kill animals because they are starving is if WE make it that way. Coronavirus won't cause that. We ought to be keeping everyone with those thoughts under quarantine. I worry much more about them and the problems they will cause to me and my family than I do the virus itself.


 Yeah, if we do have a Pandemic situation here, as much as I love being in the mountains, we are keeping our happy asses at home. I seriously think that if people start bugging out, it's going to be like Labor day weekend X 4. So long as you have water, a means to boil it, and some food and supplies stored, there is no reason to leave your home.

Yup, the wife and I discussed this at length, that is the conclusion we arrived at. The land has only so much carrying capacity, trailer cities would spring up all over the place, and the prime places will be anywhere where there is a river or stream nearby and it's a good bet that given the number of people that would be there, it would become contaminated. Dollars to donuts some jackwagon drops a load or takes a leak in, or near it. Eventually those people will starve and get sick anyway, just not necessarily from the corona virus.



backcountry said:


> The American economy will recover. We have no clue how long this will last but we've always bounced back. Heck, this might be another flare on why we should retool American factories but I'm not holding my breath on that one.
> 
> I do have to admit an error I made earlier. I'm eating crow on travel bans working. Evidently the medical experts I read didn't read studies about long term analysis. Not only do they not decrease total cases but they don't even reduce the fatality totals. Analysis shows they just actually increase fear and panic. It seemed obvious that a delay of a few weeks would help but that doesn't turn out to be true. Sorry for spreading that misinformation.
> 
> *Social distancing is different than travel bans and quarantines.


Travel bans would work if they were ABSOLUTE. Limiting traffic in one manner does nothing if you don't limit traffic in every other manner coming in and out of the country. People can always reroute their travel plans to another location that isn't banned. I think they should have shut the gate on ALL foreign traffic, however that is impossible, the economic impact would be too great, and it would eventually creep in from the northern or southern border anyway. Once it gets in, it's only a matter of time, as that case of unknown origin in California (figures....) exemplifies.

I read they are investigating and trying to figure out where this person has been in the last two weeks. Yeah.. good luck with that. Walk into a starbucks? What day? How many people where there? Who was there? Where did they go? Who did they have contact with and where did they go? Replication ad nausem.

On a personal note, i've always been a bit of a loner, and I hate being around lots of people. Now I have a legit excuse. :mrgreen:


----------



## johnnycake

I don't care what any of y'all think, this is gonna help me get my desert bighorn tag this year! I just know it!


----------



## Vanilla

johnnycake said:


> I don't care what any of y'all think, this is gonna help me get my desert bighorn tag this year! I just know it!


Whatever you say, Thanos!


----------



## johnnycake

I'm really hoping that further testing and probing either proves this to be a contaminated sample or a fluke case!

Virus indiscriminately kills people around the globe? Meh, humanity could use a good culling.

Virus kills puppers? This is an outrage and an agent against all decency! I demand we take all the action. ALL. OF. IT.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11060913/dog-coronavirus-test-positive/


----------



## Lone_Hunter

johnnycake said:


> I don't care what any of y'all think, this is gonna help me get my desert bighorn tag this year! I just know it!







:rotfl:


----------



## backcountry

Lone, 

I was shocked to see that quarantines and travel bans had no measurable affect on fatality rates and over infection numbers. It seemed self-evident that a delay in transmission meant fewer people sick at once, more time for treatment to be developed, etc. But I was wrong to not double check the confidence of sources I was reading. 

And yeah, if an authoritarian country like China can't stop the spread than it doesn't bode well for the effectiveness of the strategy.

Containment strategies like contact interviews start to be useless at some point. That's when we see it labeled as community spread. I'm hopeful we'll have more of a delay before it gets to Cedar but once it does our life will have to change to protect my mother-in-law. 

Timing couldn't be worse as we are forced to change home equipment providers for her ventilator and the CDC has started preparing for a shortage of them. I think we'll get it but the wait sucks. Her diaphragm is noticeably weaker and she's showing signs of weakness in breathe. I'm stealing myself for the worst so I'm emotionally prepared to comfort my wife if, big if, it goes that way. She's just at high risk for severe consequences of pneumonia and respiratory viruses in general. It's hard to admit but her days are numbered as is with ALS-FTD but we'll do everything we can to limit exposure. My wife is still able to spend quality time with her while she's mostly mobile and able to talk. I'll protect that as long as we can. 

But ultimately almost no control. Even my wife's job is pretty vulnerable as they need 24/7 staffing but even a business can only prepare so much for such things. At some point we just weather it the best we can. Hope for the best, still very possible, and at least mentally prepare for everything else.


----------



## backcountry

Wouldn't be shocked if California or New York go to community spread in less than 10 days. Just saw an update that California is now monitoring 8400 people who traveled from areas of concern and only have 200 test kits. Even a small portion of those individuals bringing it into their households is how we enter the next stage. It's not inevitable but seems highly probable.

Given international spread we'll eventually have a hundred thousand (plus) people being "monitored" across the US as they return from overseas within a matter of a week or two. The curve just gets unmanageable for "containment" monitoring at some point.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> Lone,
> 
> I was shocked to see that quarantines and travel bans had no measurable affect on fatality rates and over infection numbers. It seemed self-evident that a delay in transmission meant fewer people sick at once, more time for treatment to be developed, etc. But I was wrong to not double check the confidence of sources I was reading.
> 
> And yeah, if an authoritarian country like China can't stop the spread than it doesn't bode well for the effectiveness of the strategy.
> 
> Containment strategies like contact interviews start to be useless at some point. That's when we see it labeled as community spread. I'm hopeful we'll have more of a delay before it gets to Cedar but once it does our life will have to change to protect my mother-in-law.
> 
> Timing couldn't be worse as we are forced to change home equipment providers for her ventilator and the CDC has started preparing for a shortage of them. I think we'll get it but the wait sucks. Her diaphragm is noticeably weaker and she's showing signs of weakness in breathe. I'm stealing myself for the worst so I'm emotionally prepared to comfort my wife if, big if, it goes that way. She's just at high risk for severe consequences of pneumonia and respiratory viruses in general. It's hard to admit but her days are numbered as is with ALS-FTD but we'll do everything we can to limit exposure. My wife is still able to spend quality time with her while she's mostly mobile and able to talk. I'll protect that as long as we can.
> 
> But ultimately almost no control. Even my wife's job is pretty vulnerable as they need 24/7 staffing but even a business can only prepare so much for such things. At some point we just weather it the best we can. Hope for the best, still very possible, and at least mentally prepare for everything else.


Sorry to hear that. I suspect we'll all have our own tough row's to hoe. Personally I'm concerned about my wife. She see's the general public every day. She also has a mild form of asthma and while hasn't been tecnically diagnosed with COPD, is on COPD medication because she had difficulty breathing in the past. A ok right now, but that's what I'd call a pre existing condition. Match that up with how often pneumonia pops up in corona virus patients, and it spells out that if my wife gets sick with it, and it hits her respiratory system, she's probably going to have to go to the hospital.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

If your into computer games, you might find this fun, then again, you might not.
Video is from a month ago.






EDIT:

I swear, this guy gives better updates and analysis on the Coronovirus then any major news network.


----------



## middlefork

Pretty crazy for sure. I've been pretty lucky in my life. I hope it holds out a little while longer.
WWII and Korean vets. It took a long while to understand what a large number of these guys went through.
Polio - still remember seeing the iron lungs.
Small pox vaccinations, Typhoid, Whooping cough among others. Simply amazing.
Not to mention all the unprotected activities we poor youth of the 50's and 60's went through.
Nuclear drills in school. War in SE Asia, and all the BS that has happened.
Guess what? The problems only come when people panic.
So everybody chill!:smile:


----------



## DallanC

So.... the death rate for women is 1.2% currently. The death rate for men is 2.7% 

Odd eh?

-DallanC


----------



## RandomElk16

Don't love that they intentionally brought a positive-tested person to Utah intentionally.. But the gubment says we are fine.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

RandomElk16 said:


> Don't love that they intentionally brought a positive-tested person to Utah intentionally.. But the gubment says we are fine.


Apparently it's the guy off the Diamond princess who's from saint george. He's up in Murry now.

In other news, it looks like the Corona virus has "officially" (air quotes, cause it's my words) slipped through the cracks and into some communities.

Headline: 
Oregon coronavirus patient is grade-school employee; school closed for deep cleaning, officials say
https://www.foxnews.com/health/oreg...school-closed-for-deep-cleaning-officials-say

So some guy who works at a grade school had it. Good bet it just went home with a bunch of kids, then onto the parents, then onto the coworkers, then to their families, etc so on and so forth.

On top of that a second case of "community spread" corona virus was found yesterday in California.

So it's here in the states now, and out of containment. The next couple of weeks will be very telling as to how fast it will spread. Heh, my daughters teacher just came back from a trip to Disneyland a day or two ago. I hope she didn't bring back the Kung Flu from California with her and gave it to her students. That would be a vector pathway right into Utah, and into my home.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

olibooger said:


> A guy at work has a trip to Disneyland planned for April. I held back a laugh. If they allow him to cross over that many state lines into Calirfonia I would be surprised. Even more surprised if by April Disneyland is still operating.
> I'm a dingbat though and it wont explode within the next two weeks. Hawaii wont happen here mainland. Commerce will be fine and the market will recover.
> 
> As others have mentioned. Do not panic. But definitely prepare yourselves for the worst case scenario right now.
> 
> It is super strange to me to be following all of this and tell some people at work to look around. Nobody is paying attention. It's the American mind set that we will be just fine. Always have, always will.
> That simply isnt entirely true and people need to begin working a plan of action, now.
> 
> And again, do not panic but definitely make good choices about it.


Disneyland is over rated, and over priced. I've no idea why people make special trips just to go there. On top of that the surrounding area the park is located in was a dump last I looked.

As preparations go, I did *some* of that awhile ago. Being an ex chairforce engineer, Disaster preparedness is something i'm familiar with. Not to be confused with "prepping". The big difference is in scale and rational. With "DP" your getting a kit together to see you through some natural disaster that you could reasonably expect to see. Hurricanes, earthquakes, being snowed in, something like that. With Prepping, your doing much larger scale stuff, for any number of irrational reasons ranging from EMP's emanating from the sun, to bigfoot crashing through your front door.

I've gone the DP route, and have enough food and water to feed my family for 1 month. That's not counting our normal freezer and pantry stuff. If I was a prepper, that 1 month would be 1 years worth of food. LOL. Where i've delved into the prepper arena a little bit, is I've a few rifles and made sure each one has enough ammo, magazines, and a few spare parts to keep them going in case of a breakage. But, I'm a gun guy, so.. that might not be prepping so much as indulging in things I like. :mrgreen:

And yeah, there is a lot of people with their heads in the sand. My wife met one the other day, that person had no idea what so ever. Other people are in denial, or think their special and it won't happen to them. Other people will be in denial so hard, that they could be coughing up a lung, but they still sit there, "oh it's just a cold, i'll be fine." Heh. yeah...

We know of someone who's made plans to viist germany, have made and paid for all the arrangements, but think they'll be fine because it will be in a more rural part of germany. They are completely ignoring the plane ride and airports, which will be THE biggest points of exposure. Great, so now we can count on them to bring the kung flu back from germany, and get everyone at work sick. Thanks guys!

What gets me, is A LOT of people think they are special. It, whatever "it" happens to be, won't happen to them. It always happens to someone else. Theres a physiological term for it, but I just call it "being special". They've never had their bubbles burst before, so their in some state of denial. Personally, I've had my bubble burst so much, I'm probably the first guy who would say, "Yup.. i can see THAT happening to me....". My medical record in the military is the size of a freaking phone book. Yeah, I learned my lesson, I AM NOT special. I guess that puts me on the opposite end of the scale as to be a little paranoid. :mrgreen:

Our plan of action:
- Watch and observe
- Increase hygene and cleanliness. Primary in hand washing.

If it gets here:
- Limit time in the general public whenever possible. IE, go to the store as little as possible.
- Probably staying in on Sundays instead of family dinners (Truthfully, I'm already thinking this)

If it gets bad here:
- Probably pull our Daughter from school for a couple weeks.

If it gets REALLY bad here:
- Hunker down at home

If it's still REALLY bad here after 30 days:
- evacuate the area. IE, bug out. Haven't set any firm thoughts on where, but we are getting a problem with our truck fixed next week so we don't have to worry about it breaking down on us.

All that said, I don't expect it to get much farther then having to pull our kid from school from a week or two. Statistically, unless your old enough to be put in a home, if you do get it, it will just feel like a bad case of the flu, and life will go on.


----------



## brisket

Lone_Hunter said:


> I've gone the DP route, and have enough food and water to feed my family for 1 month. That's not counting our normal freezer and pantry stuff. If I was a prepper, that 1 month would be 1 years worth of food. LOL.


The #1 disaster that preppers prepare for is a job loss, which could happen at any time regardless of the situation. Sure, it's a localized disaster, but could be devastating to your family. Depending on market conditions, it could take months to find another job. LOL if you want, but wouldn't it be comforting to know you could at least feed your family for a few months during that interim period while looking for a job?

If you "eat what you store and store what you eat" you will need to buy that food anyway (and save money by purchasing in bulk).


----------



## Vanilla

Nobody is saying people shouldn’t prepare. Particularly here in Utah for crying out loud! That is part of how this state was founded. 

The leaders of the predominant religion here in this state have been preaching this for decades. Have money set aside, invest wisely, have a stock of usable food storage (encouragement has been a 1 year supply). None of this is new, and the need for it should not come as a shock, whether it is an earthquake, health crisis, job loss, market tank, terrorist attack, or any other thing that could cause the need. 

It’s this whole “people are going to be starving so there won’t be any animals or hunting seasons, get to the stores this weekend and buy everything off the shelves” crap that bothers me. 

Anyone remember when President Obama was going to take away all our guns and these same people ran out and bought up all the .22 ammo? And then they watched delivery trucks and bought it out again? And then they did it again? And then again? And the price of .22 ammo was reset for good and never returned back to the pre-completely unnecessary panic pricing? Thanks a lot, fellas! 

The only thing people that are encouraging panic by going out and doing these things will do is make the important and essential goods unavailable for the people that truly need them. And that is a bigger problem than COVID-19. 

Be prepared. Not just for a coronavirus outbreak, but be prepared just in general. While I’m watching this and I’m worried what it can ultimately look like, I’m going to keep living my life. I don’t let fear paralyze me or dictate how I go about my day. There is, and has been, a larger chance that I’d be killed by an impaired driver on any given day than there is that I’ll die from COVID-19. I still go out and live my life. There is a chance I could end up being a part of the next theatre mass shooting. I still took my daughter to see Frozen 2 when it came out on her birthday. There is a chance someone will fly a plane into Vivint arena, but my wife was still at the Jazz game last night with her mom and sister. 

There could be circumstances where changes in behavior and lifestyle are necessary, especially in the short term. But goodness, nobody needs to buy every 50 gallon drum in the state or to be walking their streets with an AR shooting anyone and everyone with the sniffles.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, Utah residents are ahead of the curve. Though many in hurricane and earthquake zones are as well.

Like a few others here I've been watching for certain indicators. It seems at least in Cedar we moved from N95 masks being sold out to a run on basic medical and flu season items. That one at least makes sense, if it's not just hoarding, as most sources recommend having enough stuff to get through a few weeks of being homebound and someone in your house being sick. 

The N95 thing is interesting. They "sold out" almost a week or two ago in most places. A few stragglers here and there but definitely minimal stock. Many were initially being sent to Asia for family from buyers I talked to. But now we are seeing anything with third party testing sold out. RZ masks, tested to .1 micron, are all gone and their website is a ghost town for products. The number of copy cat products without any third party testing info (or NIOSH reference) but claim to be N95 (or greater) is disconcerting. At least a run on these doesn't affect healthcare workers and the infirm in hospitals who actually need them.

I assume we'll start to see more purchasing of food good for sick days (soup, crackers, easy to cook meals) in the near future. Hopefully we don't reach the fresh food and bread shortage stage. It never lasts long but it tends to be correlated with more severe events (like the Waffle House scale for hurricanes). 

The only thing I'm curious about is fresh vegetables and fruit that are eaten raw. They say this coronavirus only travels in droplets about 6 feet max. But they haven't said how long it lives in the environment in general. If its community spread I wonder if we'll need to start eating cooked veggies to be safe. Could be we don't need to consider that at all.

The good news....SARS and MERS transmission rate and cases dropped upwards of 18-fold in warm environments. That's good news for the northern hemisphere come May. South America, Africa and Australia could become next seasons reservoir but it buys us time. Hopefully they can find treatment and a vaccine in the 12-18 month timeframe.


----------



## backcountry

The surgeon general is now calling for people to stop buying masks:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/...YOSg_D8hYuUc7IALSPDdtUGb6DtreVGKYQH1upuPiClRw


----------



## Vanilla

My brother shared that with me earlier. People won’t listen, but I’m glad they are saying it. 

I went to Walmart today. Popped by the first aid aisle just out of curiosity. Bandaids were completely cleaned out. Actually, there was one box of butterfly bandaids. The rest were completely gone. A blank isle. One person had 4 boxes of large sized Neosporin she was putting in her cart. Apparently that was the consolation prize. 

Walked over to the canned beans aisle. Ha! Folks had gone to town there as well. I’m glad I was not there for bandaids or beans today. 

Ridiculous.


----------



## Critter

Vanilla said:


> My brother shared that with me earlier. People won't listen, but I'm glad they are saying it.
> 
> I went to Walmart today. Popped by the first aid aisle just out of curiosity. Bandaids were completely cleaned out. Actually, there was one box of butterfly bandaids. The rest were completely gone. A blank isle. One person had 4 boxes of large sized Neosporin she was putting in her cart. Apparently that was the consolation prize.
> 
> Walked over to the canned beans aisle. Ha! Folks had gone to town there as well. I'm glad I was not there for bandaids or beans today.
> 
> Ridiculous.


That sounds normal for the 2 Wallymarts near me every day

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

The early stages of panic buying are in place for sure. Not sure what you'd do with 4 tubes of Neosporin. Coat your entire face in the stuff everytime you go outside?

We spent this week slowly resupplying stuff to keep us comfortable if we get sick: soup, crackers, an basic flu season OTCs. When I am sick I really don't want to eat beans. Plus, my allergies and sinuses are already flaring up so I was being cautious with some of the stuff. Not hoarding OTCs but enough to get us through mid-April. Last spring was rough for both of us as we had a cough and minor respiratory infection that never went away.

There should be a Wally World meter for natural disasters. It's pretty indicative of the current mood. TP, milk and breads sound like they'll be next. After that we'll probably stabilize to our new normal the next few months. We are pretty lucky as we do big resupplies from Costco for paper goods. We never have to worry about TP. Ha.

Sucks to hear about the first stateside death being from community spread (current info). But it makes sense given how many resources we've thrown at those with known contact. On the younger side of curve but he had underlying health problems. 

Still hopeful but never fun watching it all in slow motion. We've started being more persistent and consistent with hand washing is the only change in our house. Other that it's boring middle aged couple as usual.


----------



## BGD

Was at the local Sam’s Club and the place was packed, way more than a typical Saturday. Parking lot was filled out to the very last row. Then inside, bottled water and toilet paper was flying off the shelves. They had fork lifts on stand by to pull more down. I heard one employee get on her radio and call for more bottled water saying, “Hurry up! It is going faster than we can put it out.” Based on what I saw in people’s carts they are taking the message to heart and some appeared to be much more over board than just trying to be prepared. Price for a case of toilet paper also was $3 bucks higher than normal. Supply and demand I guess. I am not sure how to prepare people and educate without causing panic. It seems to me that a bit of panic is setting in.


----------



## Dunkem

Supply and demand is one thing, BUT__ you can be sure that the big boys will make money on us, after all that's the name of the game.


----------



## middlefork

Went to the Jensen Nature Park today. I was astounded by all the stupid people fishing, walking their dogs and enjoying the nice early spring weather.

Maybe tomorrow I'll go to the store. It is generally less crowded than Saturdays. Hopefully there will be something left. I'm getting low on coffee. Hope there is no shortage of that!

If you think the the economy is hitting your wallet, just wait for the bill for the hospital visit.


----------



## Vanilla

And we were planning a Costco run this week to restock TP and paper towels. Not for the apocalypse, just because we’re getting low. 

Fantastic timing! 

Washable diapers, here we go! (For me...I don’t have kids in diapers.)


----------



## Fowlmouth

middlefork said:


> If you think the the economy is hitting your wallet, just wait for the bill for the hospital visit.


I'm sure there will be a lot of deductibles getting met this year.:sad:


----------



## backcountry

Had read accounts of Costco madness. We resupplied Sunday on way home from first use of respite care. Sometimes you have to appreciate serendipity.

Market seemed to recover to neutral territory Friday. First US death doesn't bode well though. Nor does the numbers from China on manufacturing recession/contraction from lockdown quarantine.

Don't know how many saw but China cases are rising again. Could be random chance but if a pandemic is spreading it could mean they are rightfully reducing quarantine protocol and finally allowing the virus to run a more natural course. That will be telling.

We'll all still go to work. The curve is probably going to hurt soon. If community spread is happening then the actual pain is about to be felt. The first couple days/weeks of 10-20% of the workforce experiencing real flu-like symptoms (ie medically mild but miserable) won't be fun. We'll manage but it's been a while since a large portion of the US has been sick roughly at the same time. 

Fingers crossed it doesn't turn into much. Still hopeful it's mild or enough people do what's necessary to reduce impact.


PS..Fowlmouth, I forget about deductables sometimes as I normally meet mine by end of Q1. But even 20% moderate to severe means a lot of people will be speeding past those minimums.


----------



## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> And we were planning a Costco run this week to restock TP and paper towels. Not for the apocalypse, just because we're getting low.
> 
> Fantastic timing!
> 
> Washable diapers, here we go! (For me...I don't have kids in diapers.)


Just saying, get a decent attachable bidet like from Hello Tushy. No need to worry about buying paper again like some sort of savage


----------



## Vanilla

johnnycake said:


> Just saying, get a decent attachable bidet like from Hello Tushy. No need to worry about buying paper again like some sort of savage


Maybe I can use one of oilybooger's seven hundred thirty seven 50-gallon drums of water he has stocked up to run it?

Sorry. Couldn't resist.


----------



## backcountry

I'm impressed it took to page 17 to get to potty humor. That must be a record.

I guess the zombie apocalypse will involve many crappy situations.

Can admin change Johnnycakes name to HelloTushy as a consolation prize?


----------



## Critter

The sad thing is that you can't even use the Sears and Robuck or Montgomery Wards catalogs anymore. For one thing they are stores of the past and on another thing nothing sticks to those glossy pages. 

I do have some old JC Whitney catalogs around but they won't last long


----------



## johnnycake

Anybody thinking I was joking about the bidet clearly hasn't tried it yet.


----------



## backcountry

johnnycake said:


> Anybody thinking I was joking about the bidet clearly hasn't tried it yet.


Who can resist with with a "splash page" like this:


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Who can resist with with a "splash page" like this:


:mrgreen:

Their marketing is...interesting. Butt effective.

The one that has the hot water connection from your sink is possibly the cheapest luxury you can buy.


----------



## middlefork

Critter said:


> The sad thing is that you can't even use the Sears and Robuck or Montgomery Wards catalogs anymore. For one thing they are stores of the past and on another thing nothing sticks to those glossy pages.
> 
> I do have some old JC Whitney catalogs around but they won't last long


No worry I'm sure an APP is on the way to accomplish it. Probably a virtual bidet too.


----------



## brisket

A tweet from the U.S. Surgeon General:



> Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can't get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!


So...apparently masks ARE effective for healthcare providers, just NOT the general public. Got it.


----------



## Critter

A big problem with the bidet is that it is hard to use after you bugged out. 

While I have seen them in homes I have yet to come across one in a out house or near a log where you do your business in the wilds. 

But then there are always leaves and pine cones. Just be careful of the ones with needles on them.


----------



## Catherder

Critter said:


> But then there are always leaves and pine cones. Just be careful of the ones with needles on them.


This is correct. If civilization can hang on for one more month, fresh, tender leaves will be available. Besides the needles, watch out for the fuzzy leaves too. They make ones butt itch.


----------



## backcountry

brisket said:


> A tweet from the U.S. Surgeon General:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can't get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!
> 
> 
> 
> So...apparently masks ARE effective for healthcare providers, just NOT the general public. Got it.
Click to expand...

Nope, Brisket, fabulously wrong take.

Patients who are ill (respiratory virus symptoms of coughing or fever) wear the surgical masks during outbreaks because it stops the droplets from entering the environment. Have you ever been to a doctor during flu season and seen masks for ONLY those showing symptoms NOT everyone there?

Healthcare workers should be wearing N95 masks which are the only one shown to help IF you are in close proximity (roughly 6 feet) to someone who is sick, ie their job. But they go through explicit training and fit testing.

N95 masks aren't shown to mitigate transmission in day to day activities as in those environments transmission happens from hand to mouth/nose/eye touching. Hence emphasis on hand washing and being diligent about not touching your face.

The worst possible outcome is healthcare workers can't get N95 masks and the ill can't get surgical masks in medical environments. That will lead to greater spread as the healthcare system is overwhelmed. More specifically our system does not work if healthcare workers are seriously ill at times of crisis. We as a society should do what we can to help those people as they are serving us. The fewer of them working likely will increase the fatality rate amongst the most vulnerable.


----------



## backcountry

Real time info is unpleasant to watch. After reading up more I better understand why there is big difference between published case fatality rates and "closed case"fatality rates (if 80% of cases are mild most never enter medical environments). But it's still hard to see the raw numbers.

Italy's "closed case" fatality rate is currently 29%. That will go down as it progresses but I feel for all the citizens on the hardest hit region dealing with that initial shock with little recourse. The worldwide "closed case" fatality rate seems to have stabilized at 7% the last 7-10 days. That will go down as research comes in (after it's peaked and we can truly investigate how many people were infected) but I'm prepping to hear that type of figure through the US peak. Current numbers and final numbers for historical cases just aren't comparable until long after the pandemic has passed.

UK is bracing for "closing down" activity at a massive scale. I assume France is in a similar situation. Europe will likely experience at least a minor recession if airline schedules are any sign; multiple airlines are now canceling all flights to outbreak regions (Milan, etc) through the end of April. I don't think that is peak tourism season but it's still key. Mass illness is definitely an Achilles Heal for the service industry.

So it goes. Wife goes back to work tomorrow and they will start to finalize contingency plans. I guess my household is doing what they call "rehearsing", ie starting to incorporate hand washing and talking to friends and loved ones about what we'll have to do it it gets bad. Feeling grateful that we have a great community that understands our unique situation and how we'll all step up if one of us gets sick for a week or more. Reminds me why we've chosen Cedar City as home.


----------



## brisket

backcountry said:


> Nope, Brisket, fabulously wrong take.
> 
> Patients who are ill (respiratory virus symptoms of coughing or fever) wear the surgical masks during outbreaks because it stops the droplets from entering the environment. Have you ever been to a doctor during flu season and seen masks for ONLY those showing symptoms NOT everyone there?
> 
> Healthcare workers should be wearing N95 masks which are the only one shown to help IF you are in close proximity (roughly 6 feet) to someone who is sick, ie their job. But they go through explicit training and fit testing.


Fabulously wrong, lol.

Let's say a member of my family becomes ill with COVID-19. Their symptoms are mild and not enough to be hospitalized so they remain at home. Wouldn't having them wear a mask to reduce exposure to the rest of the family help contain the spreading exactly as you just mentioned? How is that not a valid use case for members of the general public?


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## backcountry

That is the only really viable and justified IF there is a high risk individual in your house (over 60 with pre-existing serious health problems) and even then experts are warning against doing so because:

1) It leads to a shortage for those in highest need. If someone is at high risk in your household and exhibiting symptoms than take them to the doctor...where they will need masks.

2) Only surgical masks help victims as wearing N95 masks are uncomfortable and most people don't wear them correctly to begin with (hard to wear them properly when coughing). Ever tried wearing them for long projects in the home? It sucks and that's a situation in which you can touch and adjust them without other PPE. Its also a situation in which improper fit isn't a serious health issue.

3) Store bought N95 respirators are normally disposable and single use by a single person when used to protect against viruses. So you would technically need an almost insurmountable amount (which is why the manufacturers are now running 24/7 to just supply medical professionals) for one individual to deal with a single or multiple family members sick in a single household for 7-14 days (likely longer as their infections won't perfectly overlap). Hence why they aren't recommended for the general public. Not to mention medical professionals that need and use them are wearing other PPE and also trained on how to attire themselves so as to reduce spread in removing these tainted masks and then disposing of them. Many are also wearing face shields and higher levels of PPE once they know someone is infected. 

This PPE is desperately needed by frontline health workers who initially intake patients, get them tested and then moved to higher levels of care if they test positive for the virus. Remember, people have been panic buying these for 6-8 weeks. Home Depot has been rationing them since January. The supply chain is under immense pressure just to supply those who we know actually benefit the most from them.

Maybe actually listen to experts and understand their wisdom and knowledge is paramount in outbreaks?


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## backcountry

And to clarify....right now we have tens of thousands of citizens under medical observation. There are 8400 potential patients being watched in California alone, and that number is days old. Each one of the cases represents a case in which an actual healthcare worker HAS to wear this PPE to interact with them. That's not an IF like you are speculating about. Hoarding for the "maybe" of the future is an impact to healthcare workers and likely patients right now. Those numbers and interactions are about to get exponentially higher.

Your posts exhibit no interest in that reality.

PS...also to consider, you won't know if someone at home has Covid-19 if it's mild and not tested. Could be, likely if it's an outbreak. But having PPE for those that do encounter it daily is more important for controlling an outbreaks impact.


----------



## Brookie

2019-2020 flu season, so far, 280,000 people have been hospitalized and 16,000 have died. Maybe we should worry about the normal flu.


----------



## backcountry

Looks like videoconferencing technology is already seeing a major boost. Zoom added more new subscriptions the first 2 months of 2020 than all of 2019 combined.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/zoo...-so-far-this-year-than-in-2019-bernstein.html

Amazon cancelled all non-essential travel for more than 700k employees.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...tic-international-coronavirus-covid-19-2020-2


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Amazon cancelled all non-essential travel for more than 700k employees.
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...tic-international-coronavirus-covid-19-2020-2


I've been waiting to see if my trip to Florida in two weeks will be a go or not. Should be interesting!


----------



## 3arabians

We have a family Disneyland trip planned 3-20 to 3-28. I've been watching closely. Might not need the fast passes. 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## DallanC

3arabians said:


> We have a family Disneyland trip planned 3-20 to 3-28. I've been watching closely. Might not need the fast passes.


Make sure AZ isnt on spring break that weekend. Otherwise end of Feb through Mid March is an awesome time to visit the park. I've been there when its been so empty they let us ride space mountain twice in a row, not even exiting the cars.

Last time I was there (with free park passes), it was stupidly over crowded. 200 minute wait time on Space Mountain.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Well, now we are up to 2 deaths in Washington state. One 50 year old, one 70 year old, and now they are saying the corono virus has probably been in the area for weeks undetected. 

The only question I have, is how long before it gets here to Utah if it isn't here already?

On a more positive note, If i was to give advice to a young man about what kind of woman to look for to marry, I'd tell him, "look for a woman that was raised in Utah, or has something of pioneer heritage that can make an apple pie from scratch, and knows how to turn flour into bread - that woman's a keeper! That blond bombshell with the gucci purse you've probably been eyeballing isn't going to be much help if the excrement ever hits the fan." 

I love my wife. :mrgreen: I basically got off her case about keeping in budget where the groceries are concerned this week, and she came home with enough food for a month, along with 50 pound of flour, and a sack of dried beans for our food storage. As I brought the sack of flour in, She looked at me, and said, "Our daughter is going to learn how to do this." Okay honey! I'm all for dying skills being passed down. :grin:


----------



## Bax*

3arabians said:


> We have a family Disneyland trip planned 3-20 to 3-28. I've been watching closely. Might not need the fast passes.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Buy Max Passes. I promise it's well worth the money.


----------



## Bax*

Have a neighbor that freaking out about the virus. He doesn’t know what to do. 

Just use common sense. Avoid public areas when possible. Wash your hands. Don’t lick door knobs. That’s about the best you can do. 

And if you get sick (with a cold, corona virus, Ebola, whatever) just stay home and deal with it appropriately to avoid spreading it. 

It’s concerning that people think “I’m fine” and then expose countless others to these sicknesses.


----------



## Vanilla

Tough to criticize people when many people feel very mild to no symptoms with this one. A good reminder to be extra vigilant on this, however.


----------



## Fowlmouth

I believe it was 10 confirmed cases in Washington yesterday, and now 2 of those are deaths. That’s not good odds with more confirmed cases there today.


----------



## backcountry

I'm hopeful more businesses will reevaluate sick leave after this. It's such an important tool for community health. I don't think I'll have to explain to my wife why she shouldn't go to work with cold/flu symptoms again for a while 😛

And definitely a good reminder to wash your hands often and correctly.

Saw the news about the genetic tracking they are doing in Washington state and how it reveals a couple hundred people (maybe over a thousand) could have the unique strain isolated to two known cases there. Makes sense. The more I read the more it becomes clear that these respiratory viruses are just hard to contain. Washington, California and New York seem to be current nexi that will be tracking from.

Not that it matters. We are so interconnected that it was bound to spread. How many thousands of people fly domestically each day? Not to mention the number of other countries experiencing it. I'm guessing this is roughly when we switch to mitigation instead of contact tracing and containment.

My wife and I can probably cross off using respite care at assisted living centers the rest of the spring given the likely outbreak at the skilled nursing facility in Washington. Was already likely off the list but it makes that more certain. 

I'm glad I'm not a betting man as my optimism earlier is this thread about it not turning into an international pandemic was misplaced. Still grateful it's largely mild and hopeful medical professionals will mitigate as well as anyone can hope.


----------



## shaner

I thought it was already in Utah, at a Murray hospital?


----------



## backcountry

That's a repatriated case not one endemic to Utah. Plus he's in an isolation ward and can't spread the disease.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> That's a repatriated case not one endemic to Utah. Plus he's in an isolation ward and can't spread the disease.


 My only worry about that guy from St George, is the virus only goes into remission, and they unwittingly release him from isolation as a carrier. I say that, only because there was a story earlier about some woman in her 50's who got better and was released, only to get sick with it again and come back. However, it could also be she re exposed herself to something that was contaminated in her household. Still, you'd think her body would have developed a resistance by that point.

edit:
So much for the happiest place on earth. Between people like in this video, and the Corona virus, you still want to go to "Dismal Land"? 
(You might need to login to youtube to watch this fight. Not family friendly language as I'm sure you'd expect)


----------



## bowgy

This will be one to watch since it is highly contagious. The COVID-19 that is.

Since the common cold is a coronavirus.

To keep in perspective, there have been about 2000 deaths worldwide, the 2 in Washington were in their 70's with other health issues.

In the US alone there have been about 20,000 deaths from the flu this flu season since last November.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

bowgy said:


> This will be one to watch since it is highly contagious. The COVID-19 that is.
> 
> Since the common cold is a coronavirus.
> 
> To keep in perspective, there have been about 2000 deaths worldwide, the 2 in Washington were in their 70's with other health issues.
> 
> In the US alone there have been about 20,000 deaths from the flu this flu season since last November.


one was in his 50s


----------



## bowgy

7MM RELOADED said:


> one was in his 50s


Yes I stand corrected, it was also a woman and not a man as first reported. ??? Some reports say two men one report on fox just said one was a woman??? It may become a big mess.


----------



## Catherder

A few points of clarification/correction.

1.


bowgy said:


> Since the common cold is a coronavirus.


The "common cold" is caused by several viruses, including rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, and yes coronaviruses, along with others. Your dogs and cats get coronaviruses too.

2. "one was in his 50s"

Yes, but he had pre-existing health conditions.

3. " it was also a woman and not a man as first reported. ??? Some reports say two men one report on fox just said one was a woman???"

The authorities have clarified that it was 2 men that were the first US deaths (from Washington state). Both had pre-existing poor health. Don't be surprised if there are more deaths from Washington as a nursing home was where there was a large exposure and many of the first cases came from there. While an individual tragedy, it may not be a true indicator of the severity of the virus.

Carry on


----------



## middlefork

olibooger said:


> &#128591; for stimulus from the private federal reserve and bankers to have mercy to lower tax rates.
> 
> &#128591;&#128591;&#128591;&#128591;&#128591;&#128591;&#128591;


What? Maybe I can't follow what you are trying to say as your emoji's don't show on my computer but the rest makes no sense at all.

Sorry.


----------



## bowgy

Probably no issue if your immune system is good and you practice good hygiene.

*COVID-19's most common symptoms include fever, shortness of breath and a dry cough, the World Health Organization says. And in most cases, people don't develop a serious illness.

"Most patients (80%) experienced mild illness," the World Health Organization said in a recent update on the coronavirus. "Approximately 14% experienced severe disease & 5% were critically ill."*


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Wuhan coronavirus evacuee released from quarantine in Texas later tests positive for virus: officials
https://www.foxnews.com/health/wuhan-coronavirus-evacuee-released-quarantine-texas-tests-positive

Again?! Once is a fluke, twice is something reoccurring.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, the testing positive twice is interesting. So far those people don't seem contagious or show any recurrent symptoms from what I've read. *The article states this happens to upwards of 14% of recovered patients. I wonder about the testing protocol in that case. But that's way above my pay grade 😬

Viruses are so elegant that it was only a matter of time before another one started breaking some of our established "rules". It's hard to ignore the basic information supporting the hypothesis this could become a seasonal, stock illness for much of humanity: highly contagious, low to moderate mortality, etc. Only time will tell.


Italy's numbers are not encouraging. But if it's been in the Washington state community for upwards of six weeks then the relatively low occurrence of positive tests and hospitalizations is hopeful. 

Glad to see the market rallying or at least trying to. We don't need our account for a while but never exciting to watch plunges like last week.


----------



## Vanilla

Yep, good to see market bouncing back. Reasonable minds prevailing today. 

That’s always a good thing.


----------



## CPAjeff

Did anyone take advantage of the 'down' market and refinance your house?

Mountain America was offering a 15-year fixed rate of 2.5% on Friday, that would be a HUGE savings in interest over the course of the loan!! Rates are back up to 2.625% today, which is still pretty crazy!

We are in the process of buying a new home and I wish we were far enough in the process to have taken advantage of that rate on Friday!


----------



## caddis8

CPAjeff said:


> Did anyone take advantage of the 'down' market and refinance your house?
> 
> Mountain America was offering a 15-year fixed rate of 2.5% on Friday, that would be a HUGE savings in interest over the course of the loan!! Rates are back up to 2.625% today, which is still pretty crazy!
> 
> We are in the process of buying a new home and I wish we were far enough in the process to have taken advantage of that rate on Friday!


Nope. No mortgage for me. But those are great rates. I'm not looking forward to the next mortgage i have to take if and when we move. Property values out here are not even close to Utah/ID prices.


----------



## Fowlmouth

6 deaths in Washington now... One male in his 40's...


----------



## backcountry

My mortgage broker wouldn't come to my bunker unarmed so we didn't lock in those rates 😛


----------



## backcountry

Fowlmouth said:


> 6 deaths in Washington now... One male in his 40's...


Now that states can run their own coronavirus testing we'll likely see a spike in transmission and fatality numbers. The world has been held back by lack of test kits and restrictive protocols (seems like common structural limitations of most outbreaks) I assume we'll see some odd ebbs and flow patterns over the next few weeks because of the logistical aspects we keep adapting.

I feel for people in the Kirkland region. I think many of us thought we were largely infection free until recently. It's a big shift to consider spread has been going on for 3-6 weeks.

I wonder if we'll see a spike in doctor and hospital visits as people cope with the possibility of having coronavirus instead of seasonal flu? I know the reason we gained knowledge about likely community spread in Washington state was because of the Seattle Flu Study.


----------



## Vanilla

Largest single day increase today in Dow history. 

Which means there will likely be a fall back again this week from that. 

I guess people dying is good for the market??? -O,-


----------



## Catherder

Not to beat a dead horse.....



Catherder said:


> The authorities have clarified that it was 2 men that were the first US deaths (from Washington state). Both had pre-existing poor health. *Don't be surprised if there are more deaths from Washington as a nursing home was where there was a large exposure and many of the first cases came from there. * While an individual tragedy, it may not be a true indicator of the severity of the virus.


From Bloomberg news feed on my phone;

"the deaths have been centered around a nursing home near Seattle in Kirkland, where there are a large number of suspected patients"

I know that doesn't count because it isn't Fox News, but IMO there will be more Washington deaths that will seem scary but *won't * necessarily mean that the virus' case fatality rate is skyrocketing.

Carry on.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> Largest single day increase today in Dow history.
> 
> Which means there will likely be a fall back again this week from that.
> 
> I guess people dying is good for the market??? -O,-


So will people be taking back all the emergency supplies they bought at Costco this weekend?


----------



## Critter

Catherder said:


> Not to beat a dead horse.....
> 
> From Bloomberg news feed on my phone;
> 
> "the deaths have been centered around a nursing home near Seattle in Kirkland, where there are a large number of suspected patients"
> 
> I know that doesn't count because it isn't Fox News, but IMO there will be more Washington deaths that will seem scary but *won't * necessarily mean that the virus' case fatality rate is skyrocketing.
> 
> Carry on.


Here ya go.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/washington-state-announces-3-new-coronavirus-deaths


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> So will people be taking back all the emergency supplies they bought at Costco this weekend?


I sure hope so, then I can get my darn toilet paper that I'm going to need here soon!

The market is absolutely going to be impacted by this, and it will likely be a longer term impact than just one week when it actually hits and is somewhat sustained. It's just not the end of the world. And I don't say that in the figurative way we sometimes say it, I really mean...IT'S NOT THE END OF THE WORLD! Enjoy your life. Apply for the hunts this fall. Scout, plan, and go out and have an awesome time. Life is meant to be enjoyed, not just endured. The world is not ending tomorrow.

And if it does...your extra stock of TP isn't going to do you any good anyway!!!! (yes, that is 4 exclamation points...)


----------



## middlefork

olibooger said:


> I saved my receipts.
> Costco returns things that havent expired, is more than half the original item left and I want to say within 90 days. The half eaten part kind of blew me away. They can also scan your membership card for proof of purchase without a receipt.


Perfect!


----------



## backcountry

A world with only single ply toilet will one I endure.

I know everyone on my block that is the 2-ply type though, so we can form raiding parties soon. 

And I don't want to hear from pusher man Hello Tushy about being a savage.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> And I don't want to hear from pusher man Hello Tushy about being a savage.


I bet Tushy man has nothing but 2 ply Charmin stocked in his Alaska bunker.


----------



## DallanC

Catherder said:


> So will people be taking back all the emergency supplies they bought at Costco this weekend?


Sounds like a bigger run on stuff took place today.

My wife went out to get the weekly normal purchases... said its CRAZY out there today... happy valley utah, and stores are sold out on most paper goods (tp, wipes, paper towels etc), disinfectants, hygiene supplies etc etc.

She hit 2 Walmarts, Costco, Smiths food... all bare shelves. I told her to quit wasting fuel and just make an order off amazon.

Maybe if it gets bad enough i'll start trading off boxes of .22lr for TP :mrgreen:

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

This run on TP must be a Utah thing. I stopped by my local Costco and they still had TP stacked to the ceiling.

Perhaps I need to take my truck over and buy all I can and then import it to Utah and make a healthy profit.


----------



## DallanC

Critter said:


> This run on TP must be a Utah thing. I stopped by my local Costco and they still had TP stacked to the ceiling.


Consider yourself lucky:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...g-ready-for-a-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-03-02

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

DallanC said:


> Consider yourself lucky:
> 
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...g-ready-for-a-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-03-02
> 
> -DallanC


Now I didn't go to any of the MJ distributors to see what was left on their shelves.


----------



## middlefork

Critter said:


> This run on TP must be a Utah thing. I stopped by my local Costco and they still had TP stacked to the ceiling.
> 
> Perhaps I need to take my truck over and buy all I can and then import it to Utah and make a healthy profit.


OMG an investment opportunity! Hording now for sure!


----------



## johnnycake

Catherder said:


> I bet Tushy man has nothing but 2 ply Charmin stocked in his Alaska bunker.


I have only regressed back into my former primitive habits of applying paper to my bum to "clean" it when the need has arisen whilst away from home. Ain't got no need for TP in my house.


----------



## caddis8

johnnycake said:


> I have only regressed back into my former primitive habits of applying paper to my bum to "clean" it when the need has arisen whilst away from home. Ain't got no need for TP in my house.


Having lived in the land of the origin of the bidet, he is on to something. They are glorious. There is something near magical with cleaning. Cold water is a bit of a shock, but it can also be difficult to have adequate access to warm water.

There was something amazing about cool water cleaning things up after a hot day of tracting. My brother was in Argentina and he concurs.


----------



## Catherder

Critter said:


> Now I didn't go to any of the MJ distributors to see what was left on their shelves.


Differing priorities, I suppose. Coloradans would now rather get "Poop faced" than deal with poop on their tooshies. Or the wacky weed eliminates the stress of feeling the need to make a run on Costco during a crisis.


----------



## johnnycake

caddis8 said:


> Having lived in the land of the origin of the bidet, he is on to something. They are glorious. There is something near magical with cleaning. Cold water is a bit of a shock, but it can also be difficult to have adequate access to warm water.
> 
> There was something amazing about cool water cleaning things up after a hot day of tracting. My brother was in Argentina and he concurs.


Cold water only? That is a step up from the savages...but nonetheless, still a mark of the peasant.

Now, a nice warm blast of water to sluice through the debris...that's how you know you've made it.


----------



## CPAjeff

I’ll add my humble vote to the majesty of the bidet, had the pleasure of using one for a couple years in Brazil - those were the good ‘ol days!


----------



## backcountry

The bidet appears more contagious than coronavirus. 

"Hide your kids, hide your wife"


----------



## johnnycake

Hide them?! Just teach them how to use it and they'll be fine. 

I'm legitimately considering buying another Hello Tushy and installing it at the office.


----------



## backcountry

There will likely be a bidet in our house soon enough. It's better than the alternatives in my situation. 

I'm sure I'll be a convert. 

I might wait until there is an Alexa activated version though. 

Given they are now saying coronavirus is likely spread via fecal-oral route I dare say this post is on topic.


----------



## johnnycake

A nice anal spritz is always on topic


----------



## PBH

well....I guess this is nice timing.










So, I'll have my own water well, and bidet. I think I'll be fine.


----------



## backcountry

Numbers out of Iran and North Korea are exploding. Pretty obvious countries know spread in Iran is a global concern given how much aid they are sending right now.

Closed case fatality rate has dropped to 6% which is a great sign. Was hovering above 10% for weeks.

Japan is clearly spooked as they are talking openly about how the OIC contract is vague enough to allow a delayed games anytime in 2020. It's not scheduled until July but they must be experiencing a major decrease in preparation to start publicly discussing the potential for such a big change.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5e5e570ac5b67ed38b389b58


----------



## Kevin D

What's with all this talk about bidets anyway?? Real men when they run out of toilet paper will just go cut 'em off a section of barbed wire! :shock:


----------



## Critter

Kevin D said:


> What's with all this talk about bidets anyway?? Real men when they run out of toilet paper will just go cut 'em off a section of barbed wire! :shock:


Yes, but very few know how to weave that section of barbed wire into a sheet to cover more area


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> Numbers out of Iran and North Korea are exploding. Pretty obvious countries know spread in Iran is a global concern given how much aid they are sending right now.
> 
> Closed case fatality rate has dropped to 6% which is a great sign. Was hovering above 10% for weeks.
> 
> Japan is clearly spooked as they are talking openly about how the OIC contract is vague enough to allow a delayed games anytime in 2020. It's not scheduled until July but they must be experiencing a major decrease in preparation to start publicly discussing the potential for such a big change.
> 
> https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5e5e570ac5b67ed38b389b58


Heh, I called out South Korea about a month ago.
https://utahwildlife.net/forum/2161033-post38.html

Although I had the spelling wrong, apparently its Benjo with an E, not with an I, and it's not just a Korean thing. Google image search "Benjo ditch", then picture that in a HEAVILY urbanized area where people are so crammed together, they have no concept of personal space. Also, I don't know if the rumors are true, but while there, I heard they use human waste as crop fertilizer.

They have so much bacteria that is foreign to American's, that while there, you will catch what is known as "The Korean crud". It's when you have flu like symptoms for about a month. You feel like absolute garbage. All it is, is your body adjusting to all the foreign bacteria. Everybody stationed there goes through it.

Now overlay that backdrop, on a Novel Corona Virus.

(on an unrelated side note, most people don't realize it but we smell like what we eat a lot of, I think it comes out of our skin pours, kinda like someone who had had to much to drink.. To us, Koreans smell like Kimchi, to Koreans, we smell like red meat.)


----------



## PBH

I'm smelling a little asparagus this morning...-O,-


At one point in my life, fecal transplants were something that was discussed. Yuck. Lucky for me, it never was a necessity. Sometimes you have too much bacteria in your gut, and sometimes you don't have enough...


----------



## caddis8

Critter said:


> Yes, but very few know how to weave that section of barbed wire into a sheet to cover more area


I had an emergency come up once float tubing on Hebgen lake 20 years ago. It needed to happen and there was little time to arrange all fodder needed. I was under pine trees so there was no leaves, flowers, or anything else. I was left with pine needles, closed pine cones and open pine cones.

I chose closed pine cones with no sap. If you go with the grain, surprisingly effective. Can't have sap though.

Even a bidet couldn't help that if it was all sappy.

On a more on topic note, Iran's senior leadership seems to be hit hard by this. I'm not sure why. I also read that a lot of the cases in Iran are based in a holy city/shrine area. People were licking the walls- even after it was posted prohibited.

My wife was diagnosed with Influenza A on Friday. I was prepared for the Boy Scout Medical tent to go all hazmat suits on us and quarantine. Luckily they didn't.


----------



## RandomElk16

PBH said:


> I'm smelling a little asparagus this morning...-O,-
> 
> At one point in my life, fecal transplants were something that was discussed. Yuck. Lucky for me, it never was a necessity. Sometimes you have too much bacteria in your gut, and sometimes you don't have enough...


In the US we make it a "surgery" to get a "transplant" while in Canada it's just a pill like a probiotic.

I have known two people who had to get it here and 2 in Canada... Both worked the same. Theirs was quick and cost nothing in Ca. Gotta love the American Healthcare system lol.


----------



## PBH

I have to be honest -- I'm much more skeptical when a doctor prescribes me an antibiotic now than I was back then...

....talk about wiping out entire populations! Caddis8 having an emergency while in a float tube is small potatoes! :neutral:


----------



## backcountry

Lone,

South Korea (not north, thx) has a lot working against it. Proximity is one. But it sounds like they had an uphill battle after that cluster outbreak at the secretive church.

The numbers there and Iran just finally hit a crazy new stage though. Watching it the next few days and week could be telling for how honestly China was reporting figures. 

Still very skeptical that China has effectively prevented further outbreak there. What happens when lockdown ends and people start traveling and working again? Hard to be optimistic until we see how it behaves in day to day life in China.


----------



## backcountry

WHO sets case fatality rate at 3.4%, a noticeable increase.

I personally didn't expect the Fed to react so drastically today but I'm definitely an economic novice.


----------



## Fowlmouth

Gas prices jumped overnight too. $2.25 yesterday to $2.45 today...at least in Tooele....


----------



## Vanilla

Fowlmouth said:


> Gas prices jumped overnight too. $2.25 yesterday to $2.45 today...at least in Tooele....


That is actually odd. The price of oil has been dropping consistently lately. Maybe it jumped back up when I wasn't watching?


----------



## PBH

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdash...KBU2i0EN6nQ#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> Fowlmouth said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gas prices jumped overnight too. $2.25 yesterday to $2.45 today...at least in Tooele....
> 
> 
> 
> That is actually odd. The price of oil has been dropping consistently lately. Maybe it jumped back up when I wasn't watching?
Click to expand...

I thought the same thing. But it looks like there is game playing by Russia as there are big OPEC meetings soon. Looks like crude oils prices are slowly rising.


----------



## DallanC

olibooger said:


> We aren't in Kansas anymore Todo


There were twice as many people killed in America today by Tornados than Coronavirus, just sayin'

-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

olibooger said:


> It isnt the virus, it's the market.
> 
> Continue to watch the market, not the virus.


Maybe so. Are you buying yet? Looking for property or a house with the low interest rates?

What is the secret?


----------



## Catherder

Instead of worrying about coronavirus, I went fishing today. 

What a fool, I should have been in line at Costco and selling all my stocks.


----------



## Kevin D




----------



## middlefork

Nice list!
Seems like there are some "end of the world because of global warming" missing. Makes me feel even luckier!


----------



## backcountry

Pandemic mitigation is always double edged sword. If you succeed than society often dismisses the risk of future ones and looks back on the past with rose colored glasses. If you fail than millions could die.

And most of us didn't survive many of the previous outbreaks because we were never infected. For several of those events it's because agencies affectively minimized spread.

On a different note, WHO is calling for increased focus of supply chains. China's draconian measures severely reduced supply. Couple that with panic buying and hoarding and frontline heakthworkers will soon be at risk.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN2011EK


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> On a different note, WHO is calling for increased focus of supply chains. China's draconian measures severely reduced supply. Couple that with panic buying and hoarding and frontline heakthworkers will soon be at risk.


Hopefully in the future, we'll see a renewed focus on American manufacturing as a result of supply chain shortages today. In the long term, and in the larger picture, to a certain extent, its a matter of national security.

Obviously we don't want to go full on DPRK Juche, but we need to maintain the ability to manufacture all our own goods. Being able to outproduce everyone is one reason why we won WW2. I wonder if we could still do that in today's world. A lot of the tradesman skill is NOT being passed on to newer generations, and is being lost.

My dad retired not too long ago, and he's a machinist with 30 years experience at the least. What he built, was the machines that would seal the lids on cans with the product already in them. Odds are, if you've opened a can of corn/peas/pairs/whatever, my dad probably built a machine that spits out cans just like that at in the hundreds (if not thousands) per minute. Guess what? Nobody can do it anymore. He's the last of the mohicans. With all the corporate buy outs, and streamlining by way of offshoring jobs or reduce jobs into menial tasks to lower the cost of labor, there isn't anyone with his knowledge anymore, so they keep coming back to him for help, even in retirement. Problems they have racked their heads on for weeks and still not resolved, my dad fixes in a day. What's going to happen when he, and other craftsman like him finally kick the bucket? We need less "Made in China" and more "Made in USA".


----------



## StillAboveGround

Amazon employee in Seattle supposedly tested positive for Corona Virus... hope they didn't pack your gloves...


----------



## Critter

Just think of all that bubble wrap that they manufacture over in China and what might be in the air in them 

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## middlefork

Lone, I have a friend who is a machinist. He has made a very good living machining parts for a fairly large local business who has proprietary machines. All his kids have grown up doing it and all have chosen to do something else. No desire. Too bad.

On a positive note my wife located some TP today. Unfortunately no room for a bidet.

Still and Critter, you mean an actual person makes and handles products sold on line? Hoda thunk!


----------



## johnnycake

middlefork said:


> Lone, I have a friend who is a machinist. He has made a very good living machining parts for a fairly large local business who has proprietary machines. All his kids have grown up doing it and all have chosen to do something else. No desire. Too bad.
> 
> On a positive note my wife located some TP today. Unfortunately no room for a bidet.
> 
> Still and Critter, you mean an actual person makes and handles products sold on line? Hoda thunk!


Unless you have a very tiny bathroom...

https://hellotushy.com/


----------



## middlefork

Think 1970's 20' trailer type  But thanks for the link!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Here's what I think of y'alls fancy french ass fountains. ound:


----------



## RandomElk16

Lone_Hunter said:


> Here's what I think of y'alls fancy french ass fountains. ound:


Wiping with leaves isn't as exciting as when you are a kid though..


----------



## PBH

1 case confirmed in Las Vegas....


----------



## backcountry

Anybody seen a running total of US citizens currently under "self-quarantine" at home after contact with a known patient? I think that would be a telling number. 

I would imagine it's going to push past 100,000 soon enough given new information. 1,000 new people in New York asked to self-quarantine today. 8400 people in California as of two days ago; I would imagine that number has grown drastically.

Another cruise ship incident but this one had thousands disembark before being held offshore.

Reality most people will test negative or not be infected but it's a unique situation stateside now. Doesn't seem like it's going to be catastrophic but definitely seems to be indicative of a bumpy few months. I saw several European leaders are estimating a peak taking 2-ish months and then another 2 months to recede. I assume they are modeling that off of previous coronaviruses and China's current decline in cases.

Interesting event to watch unfold.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

PBH said:


> 1 case confirmed in Las Vegas....


It's probably here then, just not showing up yet. Lots of traffic along I-15 coming in and out of California these days.


----------



## Vanilla

Here is where my logical brain runs amok on these types of issues. 

They tell us people could be infected and not feel symptoms for 2 weeks. They tell us that most people infected will feel mild to no symptoms. They say the virus was probably around in King County (Washington) for 6 weeks before they had a confirmed case. How many people were sick in that time that were never tested? 

The number of people infected with this virus are likely astronomically higher than they could ever report. They simply have to be. I had a very minor cough two weeks ago, no other symptoms really. I think I had a slight runny nose for maybe a day. Was it coronavirus? If I would have felt mild to no symptoms, how do I know it wasn't? If people are feeling mild to no symptoms, they are not going to the doctor. 

Who is deciding at the doctor which of their patients are getting tested for the virus and which are being sent home without testing to "keep hydrated, get your rest, and if it doesn't get better in 7-10 days, come back"??? 

We start seeing the fatality rates based upon confirmed cases, yet this doesn't take into account all the unconfirmed cases out there. The unconfirmed cases around the world are twice, three times, five times, 25 times higher than what they have confirmed through testing? How would we ever know? Either way, logic says if the symptoms are mild to non-existent in most patients, this number could be 1000 times higher than what is being reported, and how would we know? 

I don't know...I just get frustrated by the narrative on these things. I renew my call for perspective from many pages ago when I mentioned early seasonal flu numbers, that someone else posted an update to more recently.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Anyone still watching the stock market?


Yep. Record drop, followed by a complete rebound the next day in a record gain, rinse, and repeat.

I'm thinking I'm going to buy big right now and reap the rewards when there is a 1,000 point jump tomorrow in the DOW again.

I'll use my earnings to purchase overpriced toilet paper and hand sanitizer.


----------



## hondodawg

I should've bought less ammo and more TP


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Lone_Hunter

hondodawg said:


> I should've bought less ammo and more TP
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


If I run out of TP, i'll start using pages out of American Rifleman, I got a crapton of those laying around.


----------



## Vanilla

hondodawg said:


> I should've bought less ammo and more TP


When all the civil unrest begins, just use the ammo to procure the TP. You'll be good!


----------



## johnnycake

Uncultured swine with your soiled paper in hand. You deserve what comes to you.


----------



## johnnycake

Uncultured swine, with your soiled paper in hand. You deserve what comes to you.


----------



## Catherder

hondodawg said:


> I should've bought less ammo and more TP
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Nah, like has been said, there are alternatives if in a "pinch" and if Bernie wins the White House, there will likely be another run on ammo.


----------



## Critter

I was over in Denver today and stopped in at a Costco over there. Every shopping cart had at least one or two big bundles of TP in it. I went back to where it is on the floor and it was stacked all over the place. 

The big money in is TP futures.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,

I wish there were more science and epidemiology reporters in the news right now. It took me a lot of digging to even get to the basics of the issue you describe. 

It's hard to remember that historic pandemics and current ones are not analogous because of availability of information. It will take years to settle on total infections and fatalities of Covid-19. CFR is a moving target in the early phases of a disease. It just moved up to 3.4% but that still operates under many assumptions, which likely change over time. I think we'll see it rise again and then steadily fall as testing starts to give a more accurate picture of how many truly mild, unreported cases are in the world. 

Take King County. There range of likely community based infections, based on possibility of weeks of transmission, was somewhere between 100-1200, if I remember correctly. But that was a week ago. 

Testing criteria has changed multiple times in the last few weeks. I think the choice is sadly determined by availability and triage needs. I understood roughly a million tests were being dispersed to states but that will be used up quick. And then there are questions on its accuracy. Maybe I'm just optimistic but I'm definitely glad to live in era in which an novel virus can be studied and tested in as little as a few months. Human ingenuity is pretty amazing.

I'd wager it's in at least most cities now slowly spreading largely amongst healthy people who will only show mild-moderate symptoms. 

Big picture...many of us will likely experience some need to test for antibodies in the years to come and that's when scientist will better understand it's full scale. They'll extrapolate from actual infection numbers each year (confirmed positive test) and that to model it's historic spread. But we'll never have a concrete answer. Again, similar to seasonal flu that way.


----------



## backcountry

Critter said:


> I was over in Denver today and stopped in at a Costco over there. Every shopping cart had at least one or two big bundles of TP in it. I went back to where it is on the floor and it was stacked all over the place.
> 
> The big money in is TP futures.


TP futures trade about an hour after coffee shops open, correct?


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Reasons for yesterday's marginal gain and reasons for today's loss.


1100+ points and a 4.5% uptick in one day yesterday is "marginal" for you? Tell us more about that.



olibooger said:


> I'll leave the thread alone until it drops another five thousand before reminding to watch the market again.


The funny thing about this is that you act like you're breaking news. Economists have been predicting a recession coming for two years now. Heck, just a few months ago my mortgage guy told me the market experts were expecting to see mortgage rates drop to the low 3s, but the markets had remained stable longer than expected and the rates flattened out. He assured me it would happen, he just didn't know when. This is before anyone had ever even had a sniff of COVID-19.

Coronavirus is helping to initiate what we've been told for at least two years now, for anyone paying attention. If I tell you the sun is going to come up tomorrow, and it does, do I get to come on here and brag about it?

Because the sun will come up tomorrow. I predict it!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,

You asked about testing criteria. Someone just sent me this link from UDOH's recommendations for physicians.

https://health.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/UDOH-HAN-COVID_030520.pdf

PS...I don't think it's advisable to "sniff" coronavirus &#128540;


----------



## Vanilla

That’s an interesting document. Thanks for sharing. It all makes sense. It also shows what I was talking about previously. By the time our first “confirmed” case hits Utah, we’ll have had how many people have it and recover that were never tested? 

If China is reporting just about 90,000 confirmed cases, how many cases do they REALLY have? 9 million? Who even knows? It would be impossible to really know. 

I bet #hellotushy up in Alaska knows!


----------



## johnnycake

I care not to count the masses of coughing swine that deign to use paper on their anuses.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

up to 233 confirmed cases, and Colorado just got 2 in summit county. https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/05/colorado-coronavirus-case-confirmed/


----------



## Vanilla

Statement from Utah Department of Health asks people with mild symptoms to not go to the doctor and self treat. They remind us it is still cold and flu season and you’re more likely to get that than COVID-19. 

I see the logic in this, particularly since Utah only has 400 test kits right now. But it also means we will never know even close to the actual infected rate or death rate on this. I guess I should just get used to that idea, but with as much scare as people have tried to make for this one, I wish we could see the real numbers. Maybe that would calm people down just a bit.


----------



## RandomElk16

olibooger said:


> Last bet someone tried saying the virus wouldnt explode in two weeks. Where are we now?


Has it exploded though? Seems like relatively slow growth compared to the initial outbreak.

It still might explode, but I am not sure that's what is happening yet. There are about the same number of TOTAL confirmed cases right now as there are flu deaths this year.


----------



## backcountry

Definitely hasn't exploded. Probably a pandemic, despite hesitation to use the word, but that just means worldwide spread. We'll eventually normalize again even if it means we have to do our best to limit spread.

I think many of us are preparing for market volatility for the next few months at least; but as has been said, it seemed inevitable. I myself started talking to my wife about pending recession last winter so I'm pretty grateful it took this long. At this point on my life I just expect them every 10-15 years as I can't think of a decade in my life we didn't have one. Coronavirus was just the catalyst buy there were a ton of other elements at play.

I give it another week before agencies and news focus messaging on protecting the elderly and/or chronically ill. We seem to have enough data now that shows the average, healthy person below the age of 60 will experience mild symptoms. US and European cases are validating this. Still means everyone should be smart and prepared but the change in messaging will give people a more specific purpose. 

I guessed wrong at first and thought it would be better contained. So it goes. I give it until mid-May and then the world will have a sigh of relief. Sadly there is still a good chance this kills a hundred thousand people worldwide but that is miniscule to modeling at the end of January. Comparing it to seasonal flu helps with perspective but humanity always reacts to emerging diseases differently and it's honestly pretty understandable why we do.


----------



## Vanilla

The comparison is only to add perspective, not to downplay the virus or it's impacts individually and collectively. Losing 10,000 (let alone 100,000) people is tragic, no matter what the cause is, and that has large impacts on people left behind, not just the dead. 

The perspective is just this: Did you run out and buy 15 cases of bottled water before flu season? If not, then why not? How about standing in line for hours for toilet paper to be dropped on the warehouse floor and grabbing 5 bulk bags of it filling three carts? If not, why not? 

Were we talking on this forum about civil unrest and people flocking to the hills to kill all the animals left because we are starving before flu season? I can answer that one: No, we were not. Why not? 

Again, not trying to minimize the real human impact here, I just wish we would respond to these things more rationally. Actually, I wish everyone were simply more prepared in general, and then when stuff like this happened we wouldn't need to even be concerned. So if anything, hopefully it helps people step up their game on preparedness. Things my wife and I have been discussing for months, but have drug our feet on and not done, are things people are going nuts on now and we can't do them without joining the frenzy. (Which I won't do, simply out of principle.) Hopefully the craziness doesn't reset the market permanently like the .22 ammo crisis did. But when things settle down I'll use that time to get more prepared in general, which is just a good, solid principle to adhere to in our lives.


----------



## backcountry

Sorry, flu reference wasn't meant to be criticism. I think it helps keep it in perspective. It's very likely by years end that more people in US will have died from it than Covid-19.

It's always sad to be reminded we aren't as rational as we think. I've been reading some pandemic specialist to keep it in perspective and some call what we are seeing/experiencing "adjustment reactions". Some of its way overboard but evidently it's actually a way to jumpstart preparedness. 

Best of luck on TP, Vanilla.


----------



## johnnycake




----------



## Lone_Hunter

Corn on the cob.... multi purpose! :mrgreen:


----------



## Catherder

A couple of thoughts and minutiae at t-minus one week before the civil unrest starts.

1. In spite of all the wild swings in the stock market, the Dow ended *up *1.7% for the week, the S&P 500 was *up* 0.6% and the NASDAQ *up* 0.1%.

Instead of being an oracle of doom (or prosperity), Wall Street is as uncertain as the rest of us about what will happen, thus the wild swings. As I've said before, the correction was felt to be overdue by most analysts and ongoing opinion on that hasn't changed.

2. I take it as a good sign that most of the US fatalities have come from that rest home in Washington. If the virus has been in the state for 6 weeks, as is commonly felt, then it is a good sign that there haven't been a lot of severe cases from the community at large. Saying this does not minimize the individual tragedy for the victims and families.

3. Considering that there are so many subclinical cases, the spread rate is about what could be expected. It will eventually get here too. I just hope that the longer this goes, the lower the "freak out" response we will get with each new discovery.

4. I am pleased to see that some media coverage is pointing out that buying out all the bottled water and toilet paper in Costco is kind of dumb and not likely to help much in an outbreak while useful instruction about hygiene has been emphasized more. I'm not sure how much it has gotten through in some quarters.

5. I am glad Trump signed the coronavirus control bill today without all the usual gamesmanship we see from both parties. Hopefully, they can put it to good use.


----------



## backcountry

SXSW officially cancelled. Never been but our friends in Austin know how much money and general tourism it brings into the area. That's going to hurt.

I feel for any organization with big events coming up. Having to make decisions that implicate millions of dollars for local businesses can't be easy.


----------



## backcountry

Sorry folks but I feel it's my duty to spread this contagion


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Sorry folks but I feel it's my duty to spread this contagion


Too funny. I never could stand that song........


----------



## Vanilla

I don’t know when backcountry got a sense of humor, but I like it! That is a great tune and I’ll enjoy reports of COVID-19 a lot more now. 

I’m still scheduled to head to Tampa in 8 days. It’s a gathering of a couple thousand people from all around the country. We’ll see if they stay the course. If people are dying in the streets by then like predicted by some, it may make it tough to get there.


----------



## johnnycake

I won't be sending flowers to your funeral Vanillabean


----------



## Catherder

johnnycake said:


> I won't be sending flowers to your funeral Vanillabean


Awww, that's not very nice.

I would even attend his viewing, unless "Come on Eileen" was playing in the background.


----------



## 3arabians

Corona virus in Davis County now. Fox 13 reports


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## johnnycake

Like I said, this is my year to draw a desert sheep tag! They might not call me until September to let me know I'm the next in line, but...


----------



## backcountry

And people are stealing toilet paper from the Kaysville Police Station. That's bold.


----------



## Catherder

johnnycake said:


> Like I said, this is my year to draw a desert sheep tag! They might not call me until September to let me know I'm the next in line, but...


Can you be pulled away from your Hello Tushy to take the tag? Especially since there won't be any TP left to be found by September?

On a more serious note, it looks like the Utah victim caught it on a cruise and is being home quarantined at this point. Close contacts are being monitored.

Also, the patient in the Murray hospital unit has been sent home and is still under home quarantine.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> Awww, that's not very nice.
> 
> I would even attend his viewing, unless "Come on Eileen" was playing in the background.


The only music allowed at my viewing will be Metallica. The funeral can have some more reverent aspects to it if my wife insists, but the viewing better be a friggin party!


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## johnnycake

Catherder said:


> Can you be pulled away from your Hello Tushy to take the tag? Especially since there won't be any TP left to be found by September?
> .


Two words: squirt bottle


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## Lone_Hunter

3arabians said:


> Corona virus in Davis County now. Fox 13 reports
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Link. https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/health-officials-announce-first-known-covid-19-case-in-utah

Apparently he came off the Grand Princess. Isn't that the ship that was off San Francisco a few days ago? I thought it was still there under quarantine. I don't remember the exact circumstances of the virus onboard, but I think it was via a passenger who was originally on the Diamond Princess. Just goes to show how contagious this virus is.

Seems like Princess cruise lines are freaking plague ships. My wife was going to go on a princes cruise with my mom next month in the mediterranean that had a layover in Italy.... they just canceled yesterday. Princess cruise lines must be hemorrhaging passengers because they upgraded their room to a balcony room a few days ago, and threw other cash incentives their way. Ones first thought should be, "Why are they being so nice?".

I just remembered, I don't think I restocked our 5th wheel with RV toilet paper, I wonder how much is left........ *(())*


----------



## Stickboy2

Lone_Hunter said:


> Link. https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/health-officials-announce-first-known-covid-19-case-in-utah
> 
> Apparently he came off the Grand Princess. Isn't that the ship that was off San Francisco a few days ago? I thought it was still there under quarantine. I don't remember the exact circumstances of the virus onboard, but I think it was via a passenger who was originally on the Diamond Princess. Just goes to show how contagious this virus is.
> 
> Seems like Princess cruise lines are freaking plague ships. My wife was going to go on a princes cruise with my mom next month in the mediterranean that had a layover in Italy.... they just canceled yesterday. Princess cruise lines must be hemorrhaging passengers because they upgraded their room to a balcony room a few days ago, and threw other cash incentives their way. Ones first thought should be, "Why are they being so nice?".
> 
> I just remembered, I don't think I restocked our 5th wheel with RV toilet paper, I wonder how much is left........ *(())*


Yea i think it is the same ship that had grabbed a new load of passengers and was headed back to Hawaii...then another passenger in the same load as this fella got sick/tested positive and they turned it back to SF. Right now it is near SF and it sounds like they are gonna unload it. 19 crew members tested positive.

For me, I am a lot less concerned of what this virus is gonna do too me if i get it, then what my governor is gonna do too me to keep me safe.

The guy that died here near Sacramento lived in the town next to us. Out of the blue two days ago they swooped in like a scene outta monsters Inc and blocked off the street with the ghetto bird up and everything. Still haven't heard what they were doing, anybody's guess.

This too shall pass.


----------



## Sjames-XFO

I've been following this Corona thing since it became big news around the beginning or so of last month. There are things that concern me and my family, but we are also pre planners and things seem to be getting worse. I just saw last night that the governor of Utah claimed a state of emergency, then a few hours later the news was reporting on the first coronavirus case here in the state. Seemed a little weird that the governor said he had no idea about the confirmed case. 

Either way, if it gets worse, I am pulling my children from school. If it starts spreading like wildfire we have enough gear, food, water and equipment to survive deep in the mountains. But, I am also skeptical on it getting too far out of control. I don't know, I just live one day at a time haha.


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## Vanilla

Not going to get too deep into the mountains right now in most places in Utah. At least not too far off plowed roads. And if it gets “bad” I doubt you’ll have to pull your kids out. It seems the authorities are very willing to pull the plug on classes if/when this starts spreading here in the state. 

The state of emergency declaration simply allows the governor access to resources he wouldn’t otherwise have. I wouldn’t read too much into that one. The case in Utah isn’t one he contracted in Utah, but just a sign of things to come. It was never reasonable to think it wouldn’t eventually reach here. Just hope those with 37 bulk packs of toilet paper survive this one! They should really have 40.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, state of emergencies are just a tool for the government. Glad they did it. Doesn't increase my concern.

Schools will cancel as needed. Last number I saw was roughly 300 million students are currently pulled out of schools worldwide. Kids are largely carriers who don't experience severe symptoms so such closures largely seem like a way to prevent creating massive reservoirs of illness that than spread back home through the community. If kids are exhibiting symptoms at the school yet then yanking them seems like it would be a bigger impact on the student than necessary. But we all will have to think about what's best for our unique households at some point. 

The situation in Italy is telling to me. It's now doubling every 3-4 days and that is with regional quarantines. Evidently government is thinking about extending those to much of north from Sunday until beginning of April. I haven't researched it but it sounds like there is a higher elderly demographic in many of those regions though so it might be a needed measure to slow spread and mitigate pressure on healthcare. Pretty wild nonetheless. 

Makes me wonder how this will impact "snowbird" populations in the US: Florida, Arizona, southern California.


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## Lone_Hunter

Well, however you slice it, its spreading fast. Wasn't it just the other day we only had 64 cases, then 90, then 100? Now were over 400 confirmed cases in just a couple of days. Tip of the iceberg as the saying goes.


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## johnnycake

Italy has the second oldest average population, behind Japan. 

And really, the only reason the US numbers are so low is because we have a very low ability to test suspected cases.


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## Jedidiah

Watching the usual crew of genius all around experts yuk it up on this thread has at least proven to me how much I should respect some people's opinions around here. But just out of curiosity, when do you think us poor dumb masses should start to be concerned? Seems like the governor declaring a state of emergency would be it but what do I know.


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## backcountry

Johnnycake,

That's what I had heard. Provides an unfortunate incubator for this unique virus.

Our testing ability stateside does seem subpar. We somehow got behind the eightball on that and I hope we learn to do better as this just seems to be an inevitable outcome for the world (though who knows how often). 

The lag in testing influences statistics but given the size of our country/population it looks like we are about to see the caseloads double every 2-3 days for a while. I assume it's already in my community and given spring break is about to start it seems like numbers will rise drastically after that many people start/finish traveling. We always experience a spike in seasonal gunk that time of year without a novel virus. 

Poor UWN is about to experience a spike in thread counts if many of us get self-quarantined. Hopefully it doesn't get too crazy.

"Boy, you read my thoughts, you’ve got the shinning.”


----------



## johnnycake

Jed, you sound like a person who needs a refreshing splash of cold water on their tuchus.


----------



## middlefork

Depending on demographics I'm sure some people on here have more reason to worry than others. I hope everyone does what they think is needed for them and their family.

That being said I don't see a reason to over react about something you have little control over. YMMV


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## backcountry

Speculation changed to a draft decree.

Looks like we are about to see a massive quarantine in a western democracy in response to Covid-19. Italy prepping to enforce quarantine for 16 million people starting at the end of tonight and continuing for the next 3 weeks. That's a huge jump from the previous 50,000 people affected. 

I'm seeing words "lockdown" used but doesn't seem comparable to China's response yet. Still, pretty much any big social gatherings are banned, including weddings and funerals.

Safe bet market volatility will continue this week. Italy preparing for losses to economy of 7+ billion Euro.


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## backcountry

Also just read this:



> COVID-19's rapid attack on older patients with underlying health conditions was palpable at the Kirkland center, Killian said.
> 
> We have seen some results that have frankly concerned us with how quickly" they decline, he said, noting the change occurs over a matter of hours.
> 
> Some patients went from having no symptoms to hospitalization and even death within a day, he said."


https://tinyurl.com/tb6ehsl

The Kirkland case shows how easily its spread; of its 180 workers roughly 70 are "now showing symptoms" and self-quarantined. (The number of patients ill could take a while to parse given how many die weekly without a pandemic.) The worker illness is not sustainable given its only been spreading in that facility for a 2-7 weeks. US has less than 100k ICU beds total, and many of those are already used on an average day. Most vulnerable patients that experience severe symptoms need ICU care for upwards of 2-3 weeks.

Starting to piece together why this disease is catching the attention of agencies. Its not a super deadly virus but it spreads fast and hits a unique group of citizens severely whose disease escalates fast. Sadly those patients quickly overwhelm the healthcare system, and occupy beds for weeks and even infect the frontline medical workers; they don't experience higher than average fatality rates for their age but it significantly decreases staffing for an already stressed system. The cycle gets worse from there.

That's a logistical nightmare and explains more of why they are triaging so uniquely. Most of us will just experience mild symptoms and impacts to work; without a vaccine or enough test that explains why they are asking us to stay away from medical facilities without calling. Pretty unique disease for the modern era. The unique combination of effects the disease has on vulnerable populations, that require weeks of ICU level care, just can't be sustained in our medical systems. Seems like that could explain why a more elderly nation like Italy would enforce massive quarantines. Aligns well with how China reacted so sternly and built so many new "hospitals" so fast.


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## Jedidiah

So what you're saying is, soon I'm only going to need like 5 points to draw a RMB tag?


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## Vanilla

I predicted the sun would come up, and it did. Just for the record. 

And I predict I will draw at least one tag in 2021. Stay tuned...


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## backcountry

Olibooger,

No one is downplaying the unique severity of this disease. A specialist this week called it the "angel of death for older individuals". I know a fair number of scientist and they don't go on record with language like that unless they want people to recognize the threat. It is very dangerous to the high risk population.

Luckily, this time, that's not most of us. It's my household. Last night could be the last time for more than a month that my dying mother-in-law gets to be out in big public gatherings. I imagine hundreds of thousands of households with geriatric or elderly individuals with health problems are facing that unfortunate reality. Specialist are clear that such high risk individuals should take this seriously. A different specialist said "The clear message to people who fit into those categories is; ‘You ought to become a semi-hermit."

That's not the language of experts downplaying the severity of a disease. The world is slowly throwing everything they have at the disease. Our nation may have gotten caught with it's pants down in regards to testing but there are ton of people working tirelessly to protect the vulnerable.

It's not over by a long shot. We have vulnerabilities as a nation. It will hurt. It's always a good time to get healthier. It's always a good time to have 2 weeks of emergency essentials. But it's not an apocalypse. It's not a reason to hoard toilet paper or steal it from police stations. Most house won't need more than basic measures like staying home when sick and being less lazy about hand washing. 

A gave it a week before messaging changed to a laser focus on the elderly. But it's already subtly showing up in the news more clearly. We'll come out of our initial reaction as a nation and slowly learn to do what's best for those most affected. 

Time to go ice fishing. Best of luck Olibooger.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

In this day and age, sometimes the hardest thing to do, is maintain perspective. It can sometimes be very hard to gauge the appropriate amount of concern to give to something.

On one end of the scale you have someone with their head in the sand, things will be ok, because it's always been so. On the other end of the scale, you have the 4 horseman of the coming zombie apocalypse. 

Personally, I try to stay somewhere in the middle. Say, 4 or 5 on the 10 scale. Prepared, but not on the freak out train.


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## backcountry

To be very clear....we aren't saying the same thing, Olibooger. I see no evidence this is man-made (I believe you deleted such a comment). I don't believe it's designed to test out market or economy. I don't believe we are in for anything crazy. I don't see any cabal benefiting from this outbreak. 

Evidence points to this just being a natural but novel coronavirus that just happened to jump to humans this year. Same thing happened with SARS and MERS. It will likely happen again in the future.

But to repeat...we are not saying the same thing.


----------



## Kwalk3

Preparing as if this virus is the end of days while suggesting that there are deeper things at play seems a little panicky to me. 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Critter

It's a good thing that I have a good supply of tinfoil hats. 

ainkiller:eep:


----------



## Catherder

I read this article this morning from my news feed and found it enlightening.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-long-will-it-take-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine

While we still have to bear the brunt of the initial wave of infection, in the long run, I'm somewhat bullish that a vaccine will be available eventually. We utilize several coronavirus vaccines in our field and they haven't proven too difficult to develop.

Good luck fishing today, Backcountry. Panguitch?


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## weaversamuel76

Maybe get a sign and picket on the side of the road that'll really get your message out there.

Someone needs to add more tinfoil to thier cap that's for sure. Surely someone will trade a box foil for one roll out of your lifetime stockpile of TP

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


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## Catherder

weaversamuel76 said:


> Surely someone will trade a box foil


Not necessarily referring to any one single comment here or on the interweb, my impression is that the Reynolds Wrap has flown off of Costco's shelves almost as fast as the toilet paper and bottled water.


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## Dunkem

blowing my mind.:tinfoil3::tinfoil3:


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## shaner

Can you imagine how fun it would be to share a boat with Oli for an afternoon?


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## johnnycake

shaner said:


> Can you imagine how fun it would be to share a boat with Oli for an afternoon?


I think I'm scheduled to go in for a voluntary second vasectomy and then run a marathon that day. Darn, enjoy the boat ride.


----------



## backcountry

That was an impressive turn of events.

1) No I would not take a vaccine if I knew it turned me into a zombie. Granted I might last longer as a zombie than a human in that scenario. But my wife and I've talked through that reality. She won't make it past Season 1. I might make it to Season 3 but I'd never survive the Governor or Negan. I know my limitations.

2). My spirituality has never been at war. I'm more Big Lebowski, less Game of Thrones. More Coen brothers, less Tarantino.

3) You know we've been at war as a nation for almost 19 years, correct? The world hasn't been in peace times since 2001.

4) This could all be a misunderstanding if you are the Man in The High Castle. If so, ignore #2 and #3. Maybe my other self is at war in the other timeline in which World Peace actually exists.

5) More power to you for having the courage of your beliefs. What you have said is definitely not my jam. Time and Irony could have a good laugh at me if the next vaccine I take turns me into a zombie. I'll buy them both a drink. Or try to eat their brains.


----------



## backcountry

Back to topic...

Poor Italy. I wonder how long it will take for quarantine to reduce number of severe cases happening at once? As of now it's looking like they'll have one of, if the not the, highest CFR of any country. Looking to push over 4% if this keeps up. 

The attached image is the best I've seen that sums up my point. Only thing I think that's missing is baseline ICU demand which drops capacity even more.

I guess I'm pretty lucky to have grown up in a time in which a global health crisis didn't test the capacity of our medical system.

(Catheder, yes on Panguitch. Great day.)


----------



## backcountry

I don't do any stock trading but futures tonight could be a sign for an ugly day/week. Doesn't help that it looks like OPEC and Russia are playing a game of chicken right in the midst of a global pandemic.


----------



## Kwalk3

backcountry said:


> That was an impressive turn of events.
> 
> 1) No I would not take a vaccine if I knew it turned me into a zombie. Granted I might last longer as a zombie than a human in that scenario. But my wife and I've talked through that reality. She won't make it past Season 1. I might make it to Season 3 but I'd never survive the Governor or Negan. I know my limitations.
> 
> 2). My spirituality has never been at war. I'm more Big Lebowski, less Game of Thrones. More Coen brothers, less Tarantino.
> 
> 3) You know we've been at war as a nation for almost 19 years, correct? The world hasn't been in peace times since 2001.
> 
> 4) This could all be a misunderstanding if you are the Man in The High Castle. If so, ignore #2 and #3. Maybe my other self is at war in the other timeline in which World Peace actually exists.
> 
> 5) More power to you for having the courage of your beliefs. What you have said is definitely not my jam. Time and Irony could have a good laugh at me if the next vaccine I take turns me into a zombie. I'll buy them both a drink. Or try to eat their brains.


This had me laughing out loud. Well played. Haha

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## RandomElk16

So... I read through some of this mess.


Is it bad that the most concerning thing I saw was Oli spelling Kool-aid with a "C"? Come on bro.


----------



## Kwalk3

RandomElk16 said:


> So... I read through some of this mess.
> 
> Is it bad that the most concerning thing I saw was Oli spelling Kool-aid with a "C"? Come on bro.


Actually, that's how the Kool Cids spell it these days. Get with the times, man!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I don't do any stock trading but futures tonight could be a sign for an ugly day/week. Doesn't help that it looks like OPEC and Russia are playing a game of chicken right in the midst of a global pandemic.


Not good timing for an oil price war and I'm sure that another 1000 point drop in the Dow will lead to another manifesto or two on this thread.

I suppose that we can at least enjoy the lower gas prices for either our next fishing trips or to escape the mass riots.


----------



## shaner

Dick is driving around to multiple stores in search of toilet paper.
Dick is spending top dollar on expensive bottled water.
Dick is causing anxiety and panic in his family circle.
Don’t be a Dick...


----------



## Lone_Hunter

shaner said:


> Dick is driving around to multiple stores in search of toilet paper.
> Dick is spending top dollar on expensive bottled water.
> Dick is causing anxiety and panic in his family circle.
> Don't be a Dick...


----------



## RandomElk16

The dude in St. George got death threats?

I would be like "Come on over so I can cough all over your face". 



Don't threaten a Zombie during a Zombie Apocalypse.


----------



## backcountry

You know what creates more zombies than Covid-19? The **** time change. The struggle is real. 

Be the resistance.


----------



## Critter




----------



## Catherder

Critter said:


>


Hand sanitizer?


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> You know what creates more zombies than Covid-19? The **** time change. The struggle is real.
> 
> Be the resistance.


My alarm goes off at 0530 on Sundays, and according to my body clock that meant 0430 yesterday. I told my wife that there are only two things worth waking up at 0430 for, and church is not one of them!

I had to join my teenager for a "late start" Monday today for a little catch up.

I need a daylight savings vaccine. Hopefully one that does not turn me into a zombie. But on days like yesterday, I feel I would take my chances.


----------



## backcountry

I personally don't care what you post even if I find some of the ideas absurd. We all process big world events differently. 

My dad turned into a big time prepper when he retired. He got into a community circle that somehow convinced him all the money he had worked hard to earn was soon going to be useless. He did some stuff that was smart for likely emergencies: bought a months supply of food, has emergency water purification at a healthy scale, etc. But he also bought a high caliber rifle largely in case he had to shoot a human at distance after the Western world collapsed. He bought an assault weapon solely for similar reasons. 

I bring it up as right now...they are chill. They are an age that could be at higher risk but are healthier than they've been in years. They have food to self-quarantine if it gets bad. But other than they he isn't freaking out about conspiracies on the darkweb. He was curious if it could be man-made but he asked me questions, not an expert but they respect my degree in Biology and tendency to dive into literature. Within fifteen minutes of chatting he abandoned the nonsense he'd been hearing who knows where. 

No evidence this is a manufactured virus or the Swamp Illuminati (TM) is working behind the sends to undo Trump. It's just another simple but elegant virus that is challenging the world in a different way. And that is even largely based on the fact that we have limited ICU and hospital resources to care for a sudden, massive peak of a vulnerable portion of the population. 

Viruses will almost certainly always challenge us this way. Pretty amazing given they aren't technically "living" by most biological definitions.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Like I said. I'll stop informing as soon as someone says stop.


Please don't stop posting. You have the right to post just as much as I do or anyone else does. Just realize that if you post something about a vaccine that turns people into zombies, you're inviting whatever comes.


----------



## olibooger

Generally when liberals are presented with facts they do exactly as you keep doing backcountry. Mock and scoff. Unfortunately that type of behavior digs our society further down the rabbit hole. 
They have been trying to take away our freedoms for a very long time. If you pay attention to geo politics and connected the dots on the time line, you would see.

But, keep your blinders on my friend. 
The stocks will keep going down. The media wont report the spread. Hospitals wont test. Economy fallout is nearly inevitable at some level. 
I hope for no civil unrest. And they will continue to blame Trump for all of it. Hopefully hyper inflation doesn't occur even though they are printing massive amount of money as we speak. 
If it does a loaf of bread will cost 20x what it does now. 

I'm done here. Enjoy your cool aid.


----------



## backcountry

But to be clear, you haven't presented any facts to support your radical claims. 

I will say one thing...you have made Vanilla and I agree more. That itself is an impressive skill 😁

PS....the media, if doing anything, is over-reporting it's spread. I mean we have daily counters updated as soon as actual cases are reported 🤨. The only way they could up their ante is to have Howard Cosell doing a play by play radio program.


----------



## olibooger

Vanilla said:


> olibooger said:
> 
> 
> 
> Like I said. I'll stop informing as soon as someone says stop.
> 
> 
> 
> Please don't stop posting. You have the right to post just as much as I do or anyone else does. Just realize that if you post something about a vaccine that turns people into zombies, you're inviting whatever comes.
Click to expand...

The vaccines have been slowly turning people into zombies ever since there have been vaccines. Connect the dots. 
I'm not going to give a full on lesson on formaldehyde and heavy metals as preservatives being linked to autism and lower IQ. Not even jumping into GMO food, fluoride, chemtrails or the links between all of it.

It's being able to connect the dots and begin to see the results is what is scary. Knowing the dots you connect are the results you're seeing is scary. Because the dots dont line up well for a pretty ending.

It's okay. I feel like more of a burden on this thread. I'll keep to being a lurker for spots like Hell Hole and others people may leak. &#128540;

If something huge happens, I'll throw out an article on it here. At some point nobody will be able to deny what is happening. Especially if they just connect the dots and "coincidences"

There are no coincidences by the way.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

olibooger said:


> The vaccines have been slowly turning people into zombies ever since there have been vaccines. Connect the dots.
> I'm not going to give a full on lesson on formaldehyde and heavy metals as preservatives being linked to autism and lower IQ. Not even jumping into GMO food, fluoride, chemtrails or the links between all of it.
> 
> It's being able to connect the dots and begin to see the results is what is scary. Knowing the dots you connect are the results you're seeing is scary. Because the dots dont line up well for a pretty ending.
> 
> It's okay. I feel like more of a burden on this thread. I'll keep to being a lurker for spots like Hell Hole and others people may leak. &#128540;
> 
> If something huge happens, I'll throw out an article on it here. At some point nobody will be able to deny what is happening. Especially if they just connect the dots and "coincidences"
> 
> There are no coincidences by the way.


Go listen to more Alex Jones and then take a good nap, you obviously need one already today. Reading through some of your gibberish makes my head hurt.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> The vaccines have been slowly turning people into zombies ever since there have been vaccines. Connect the dots.
> I'm not going to give a full on lesson on formaldehyde and heavy metals as preservatives being linked to autism and lower IQ. Not even jumping into GMO food, fluoride, chemtrails or the links between all of it.


Ha! I'd take advice as the gospel truth from Jenny McCarthy over thousands of medical professionals as well.


----------



## backcountry

I've seen this movie. Time to protect my precious bodily fluids.


----------



## RandomElk16

I don't disagree with Oli about the timing of things.

Trump is being bashed, yet can anyone tell me how many deaths occurred before Swine Flu was declared an emergency by the pres? How many total deaths occurred?



I am not on the Zombie Vaccine train though and will continue to strongly oppose the spelling of Kool-aid with a "C".


----------



## Critter

From the looks of things a person could make some money in the oil futures........

As for vaccines, I have been getting them for the last 67 years and have had no problems with them. At times being a Zombie can be good.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Critter said:


> From the looks of things a person could make some money in the oil futures........
> 
> As for vaccines, I have been getting them for the last 67 years and have had no problems with them. At times being a Zombie can be good.


We should go back to the days before vaccines and die needlessly at age 40 from some disease we have a cure for. Because zombies.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

RandomElk16 said:


> I don't disagree with Oli about the timing of things.
> 
> Trump is being bashed, yet can anyone tell me how many deaths occurred before Swine Flu was declared an emergency by the pres? How many total deaths occurred?
> 
> I am not on the Zombie Vaccine train though and will continue to strongly oppose the spelling of Kool-aid with a "C".


I can agree that it's being blown a bit out of proportion, but there's no vaccine currently for it and if there's a major outbreak it could really become an issue. The President of the United States should not be downplaying a public health crisis like he has been.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> I don't disagree with Oli about the timing of things.
> 
> Trump is being bashed, yet can anyone tell me how many deaths occurred before Swine Flu was declared an emergency by the pres? How many total deaths occurred?
> 
> I am not on the Zombie Vaccine train though and will continue to strongly oppose the spelling of Kool-aid with a "C".


It was declared a Public Health Emergency in the US in April of 2009 when we only had 20 cases and no deaths. A couple days later a young child visiting from Mexico was the first fatality on American soil.

Declarations of Public Health Emergencies open up specific funds and loosen federal regulations on release and testing of certain medicine.

H1N1 wasn't declared a pandemic until roughly 2 months later.

100% agree on spelling of Kool-Aid.


----------



## Catherder

Is it possible that Oil might be elaborately pulling our leg with his diatribes and is seeing if he can get a rise or two ? If so, it has been skillful. 

Oili might possibly be a liburl. (anyone seen Paddler lately?) 

Heck, he could even be "They". :shock:


----------



## backcountry

I had started wondering if Oli was pulling a big prank or troll. If so, it's been fun.

And on another level it's hard not to recognize a certain type of bravery to sticking to your guns if he's sincere. Conspiracy theories aren't my jam but I understand how they could be for others.


----------



## DallanC

Painful day in the stock market for most folk... unless they bought SDS. If so, those folk are smiling up a storm and hoping for a repeat tomorrow. I'm certainly tempted...


-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> Painful day in the stock market for most folk... unless they bought SDS. If so, those folk are smiling up a storm and hoping for a repeat tomorrow. I'm certainly tempted...
> 
> -DallanC


There are a few moves that are tempting. -Ov- The unpredictability is unnerving though.

Or maybe I should sell everything and put it all in buying toilet paper or a bunch of hello tushys.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, Oli's trolling

But in all seriousness.... I'll buy into the Swamp Illuminati (TM) thesis when the CDC tells me the cure is a colloidal silver enema that can only be administered by Jim Bakker himself for the low fee of only 4 installments of $99.95.


----------



## Dunkem

Last week we went to Costcos for some jerky and goodies, my wife said to me "I just heard someone say they are out of toilet paper and water" I replied rather loudly That's ok, I'm not thirsty and I pooped at home. Wife was smart enough to move our funds into something stable.:mrgreen:


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Yeah, Oli's trolling


Yeah, kinda looks that way. Too bad he felt compelled to remove his last installment.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Catherder said:


> There are a few moves that are tempting. -Ov- The unpredictability is unnerving though.
> 
> Or maybe I should sell everything and put it all in buying toilet paper or a bunch of hello tushys.


It would simply be nice if the guy at the top would let the professionals delegated to this do their job without going on a twitter tirade daily trying to downplay it or make it about him. The rest of the world is not taking all these steps just to get at him. This is what happens when you have someone unpredictable as to what he may say next at the top. Yes the virus itself is an issue, oil issues are hurting it, and it's about to get worse as several industries begin taking a substantial hit in the coming days and weeks. The markets going to continue to drop, but it's going to be even worse if the President feels the need to tweet daily downplaying it while health officials say its a concern. People shouldn't be freaking out about it but it is concerning going forward for the short term. Trump needs to get off Twitter and shutup about it and allow professionals that know what they're talking about to do their job.


----------



## backcountry

Going to be a tough few weeks. Italy just officially quarantined the entire country, 60+ million people. 

Hard to believe market instability is anywhere near over. 

2 weeks ago I would have thought it wasn't remotely possible but I'm starting to wonder if we'll see voluntary, regional quarantines in regions around Washington and California. Nothing draconian but something to slow the spread and pressure on the medical system. Given Kirkland area was turning away anyone without acute, serious conditions at the hospital it seems like a possible option.

Definitely misread this virus when it first popped up. Bravo to DallanC for seeing it's possible risk so early.

Never thought that a virus like (rather mild all things considered) this would have such an impact. Impressive. Not the end of the world but a very unique situation.

An ounce of prevention...no Oli, we aren't saying the same thing.


----------



## middlefork

In a week, god willing I'll celebrate a 1 year anniversary of walking out of the hospital 3 months after being dead.

I wake up every morning and appreciate this wonderful planet we are allowed to live on.
Should I not wake up it certainly would not be the end for my family or the world.

But I really feel their are countless individuals out there who would be willing to sacrifice everything to the betterment of others. I've seen it in the past.

I really wish that people would take a deep breath and settle down. If the "man" has that much control you are wasting time worrying about it.


----------



## Kwalk3

Catherder said:


> There are a few moves that are tempting. -Ov- The unpredictability is unnerving though.
> 
> Or maybe I should sell everything and put it all in buying toilet paper or a bunch of hello tushys.


On a slightly humorous/annoying note, thanks to our discussion here, and ONE single search, I have been inundated with facebook/twitter/web ads for Hello Tushy for the past week.

Thanks for nothing johnnycake.


----------



## johnnycake

Kwalk3 said:


> On a slightly humorous/annoying note, thanks to our discussion here, and ONE single search, I have been inundated with facebook/twitter/web ads for Hello Tushy for the past week.
> 
> Thanks for nothing johnnycake.


You are only saying that because you haven't had your bearded red eye washed clean so you can see the chosen way. Come, spritz yourself and join us on the heights.


----------



## DallanC

I work with a bunch of contract workers from India... they always take a Styrofoam cup with them to the rest room... I never could figure out what they were doing with it. Finally someone else on my team figured out they would put clean water in it to "dip" toilet paper in before cleaning. I guess when you come from a country where human feces on the streets, you really want to be clean.


-DallanC


----------



## Critter




----------



## shaner

Dallan, you need to fix your typo before the boss man reads it (country, not company). Heehee.


----------



## Animediniol

They say it is expected to kill fewer people than the flu virus, but much of the risk comes not from the virus itself but from how it affects the societies it hits.


----------



## PBH

not that I would have anyway, but I'm glad I didn't attend the BYU vs. Gonzaga game...


----------



## Vanilla

PBH said:


> not that I would have anyway, but I'm glad I didn't attend the BYU vs. Gonzaga game...


How great is it that we get to blame BYU for the spread of COVID-19 in Utah?

#goutes


----------



## PBH

In other news: Ireland cancels St. Patrick's Day.


Things are about to go all "Lord of the Flies".


----------



## RandomElk16

Looks like it has spread to Weber-Morgan area (spread meaning 1 case).


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> It was declared a Public Health Emergency in the US in April of 2009 when we only had 20 cases and no deaths. A couple days later a young child visiting from Mexico was the first fatality on American soil.
> 
> Declarations of Public Health Emergencies open up specific funds and loosen federal regulations on release and testing of certain medicine.
> 
> H1N1 wasn't declared a pandemic until roughly 2 months later.
> 
> 100% agree on spelling of Kool-Aid.


What's the difference between a public health emergency, and a national emergency? Honest question.


----------



## DallanC

shaner said:


> Dallan, you need to fix your typo before the boss man reads it (country, not company). Heehee.


ROFL... well, there are days I feel that way about the company HAha. But yes, good call. I corrected it.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> It was declared a Public Health Emergency in the US in April of 2009 when we only had 20 cases and no deaths. A couple days later a young child visiting from Mexico was the first fatality on American soil.
> 
> Declarations of Public Health Emergencies open up specific funds and loosen federal regulations on release and testing of certain medicine.
> 
> H1N1 wasn't declared a pandemic until roughly 2 months later.
> 
> 100% agree on spelling of Kool-Aid.
> 
> 
> 
> What's the difference between a public health emergency, and a national emergency? Honest question.
Click to expand...

HHS declares Public Health Emergency, often for more diffuse issues like disease. It's what was declared for PR during Zika and also what's been used for opiod crisis. Allows access to medical related funds and various health related tools.

If I understand correctly National Emergency is FEMA related. Usually targeted at distinct disasters, like hurricanes. One of its biggest powers is deploying the national guard.


----------



## CPAjeff

I hope this Corona scare continues and continues - the stock market is AMAZING right now!!


----------



## backcountry

This will be the new message once people adapt to the new environment:

https://tinyurl.com/sj378tw


----------



## backcountry

CPAjeff said:


> I hope this Corona scare continues and continues - the stock market is AMAZING right now!!


You understand how that likely comes across to people currently affected or in high risk groups, correct? Millions of people are watching their retirements tank. It'll likely recover but this can be devastating to families looking to retire in the near future. Not to mention those of us who are about to distance ourselves or possibly self-quarantine in the near future. Average workers could lose weeks of pay; businesses could suffer and thousands of people could be hospitalized.

People with know how and skill can always make money off crisis (legitimaly and honestly) but maybe don't gloat about publicly?


----------



## Vanilla

My conference I was scheduled to travel to this weekend was cancelled yesterday. Have a few more in April and May, and we'll see what happens.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> HHS declares Public Health Emergency, often for more diffuse issues like disease. It's what was declared for PR during Zika and also what's been used for opiod crisis. Allows access to medical related funds and various health related tools.
> 
> If I understand correctly National Emergency is FEMA related. Usually targeted at distinct disasters, like hurricanes. One of its biggest powers is deploying the national guard.


So not the president at all, although that is who is blamed/credited?

HHS made that declaration for Coronavirus back in January.

National Emergency for Swine Flu was ordered in October I believe, and that was after it broke 1K deaths.


----------



## CPAjeff

backcountry said:


> You understand how that likely comes across to people currently affected or in high risk groups, correct? Yep, this is not a popularity contest. Millions of people are watching their retirements tank. It'll rebound, it always does. The sky is not falling and the world is not coming to an end . . . yet. It'll likely recover but this can be devastating to families looking to retire in the near future. Wrong. People could have really propelled themselves into a much better situation if they weren't fully 'vested' in the market. Not to mention those of us who are about to distance ourselves or possibly self-quarantine in the near future. What in heaven's name for??? Average workers could lose weeks of pay; businesses could suffer and thousands of people could be hospitalized. True, and that is called life. For years and years and years people have been told to have a year's supply of food storage, six months worth of savings, water supply, etc. Do I care if people don't listen? Nope.
> 
> People with know how and skill can always make money off crisis (legitimaly and honestly) but maybe don't gloat about publicly?


See red. Interesting perspective - not sure I care too much about people who can't or won't take the time to educate themselves and manage their own lives. In all honestly, I have always been below average in everything I have tried, I make up for that by sheer work ethic and being uber hard-headed. If I can understand market trends, ANYONE can!


----------



## johnnycake

CPAjeff said:


> See red. Interesting perspective - not sure I care too much about people who can't or won't take the time to educate themselves and manage their own lives. In all honestly, I have always been below average in everything I have tried, I make up for that by sheer work ethic and being uber hard-headed. If I can understand market trends, ANYONE can!


I think backcountry too is in need of a refreshing blast of cool water to his rectum. It can do wonders for a person's perspective and outlook in life.


----------



## CPAjeff

johnnycake said:


> I think backcountry too is in need of a refreshing blast of cool water to his rectum. It can do wonders for a person's perspective and outlook in life.


Honestly, that ^^^^ is the funniest thing I've heard in a long time!!

:laugh:


----------



## caddis8

My bathroom will not currently allow for the contraption to be installed without additional investment- particularly access to a power outlet. However, one will be installed in the next house we live in. I know, I know. Live for the moment. 

The bidet can fix any case of monkey butt.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

RandomElk16 said:


> Looks like it has spread to Weber-Morgan area (spread meaning 1 case).


1 case that officials know about. Realistically, the corona virus probably came into Utah a couple weeks ago. At the most risk is our elderly.


----------



## Catherder

CPAjeff said:


> the stock market is AMAZING right now!!


In the interest of sharing, I'm all ears for some hot stock advice (other than buy and hold) at the moment. Other than extreme volatility I don't see much that is predictable from week to week with the current events. You wouldn't want me to sell off and buy toilet paper at the next set of bad news. 

Also, before Mr. Tushy tells me to get a refreshing jet of cool water up my arse, I asked my wife about a hello Tushy. She said no and explained that I would get a headache from one.


----------



## johnnycake

Catherder said:


> In the interest of sharing, I'm all ears for some hot stock advice (other than buy and hold) at the moment. Other than extreme volatility I don't see much that is predictable from week to week with the current events. You wouldn't want me to sell off and buy toilet paper at the next set of bad news.
> 
> Also, before Mr. Tushy tells me to get a refreshing jet of cool water up my arse, I asked my wife about a hello Tushy. She said no and explained that I would get a headache from one.


First, here's a cutting edge stock tip: Buy at one price, and sell it for higher!

Second, Mrs. Catherder is wrong. Yeah, I said it. She forgets that the lubricating effect of the water will help assist you with your rectal craniotomy. Without your head shoved up there, then there is no worry of getting a headache from the rejuvenating stream of liquid delight on your anus.


----------



## Catherder

johnnycake said:


> Second, Mrs. Catherder is wrong. Yeah, I said it. She forgets that the lubricating effect of the water will help assist you with your rectal craniotomy. Without your head shoved up there, then there is no worry of getting a headache from the rejuvenating stream of liquid delight on your anus.


You have the right idea but grossly underestimate the dimensions of my fat head and the density of what is inside it.


----------



## rtockstein

I'm only worried about elk and deer catching it... not enough game and too many people


----------



## backcountry

CPAjeff said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> You understand how that likely comes across to people currently affected or in high risk groups, correct? Yep, this is not a popularity contest. Millions of people are watching their retirements tank. It'll rebound, it always does. The sky is not falling and the world is not coming to an end . . . yet. It'll likely recover but this can be devastating to families looking to retire in the near future. Wrong. People could have really propelled themselves into a much better situation if they weren't fully 'vested' in the market. Not to mention those of us who are about to distance ourselves or possibly self-quarantine in the near future. What in heaven's name for??? Average workers could lose weeks of pay; businesses could suffer and thousands of people could be hospitalized. True, and that is called life. For years and years and years people have been told to have a year's supply of food storage, six months worth of savings, water supply, etc. Do I care if people don't listen? Nope.
> 
> People with know how and skill can always make money off crisis (legitimaly and honestly) but maybe don't gloat about publicly?
> 
> 
> 
> See red. Interesting perspective - not sure I care too much about people who can't or won't take the time to educate themselves and manage their own lives. In all honestly, I have always been below average in everything I have tried, I make up for that by sheer work ethic and being uber hard-headed. If I can understand market trends, ANYONE can!
Click to expand...

I understand and can sincerely respect your ideals. You seem to live what you share here. More power to you.

But your gross generalization and then gloating comes across as callous as not everyone had your knowledge or means. No matter what you think they should have done, people will have to delay retirement because of this crash. That's not wrong, it's real.

What in the heaven's name for? The question exposes to me that either you don't have a high risk person in your life or don't see substance beyond the "scare" of Covid-19. This disease has a very high fatality rate for certain groups, my mother-in-law is one. ALS results in the wasting of muscles, including the diaphragm. She had difficulty coughing in Dec/Jan with a mild infection. Covid-19 is severe for her demographic. It's not an overstatement to say she could die in the next 2 months if this becomes community spread where I live.

The reality is she is going to die because of lung failure no matter what but that could be months or years from now. As long as she is mobile and can talk we will do everything in our means for her to keep having quality memories with my wife. The CDC is recommending high risk individuals start to socially distance themselves. It's a valid, rational response to save lives. My wife will likely have to telecommute at the end of the month as a dozen plus people in her business are still going to Europe. My wife isn't vulnerable but we can't risk bringing it into our house.

This isn't just a "scare". This a weird respiratory virus that is already killing the elderly stateside. We have zero immunity and no medical cure.

That's why.


----------



## johnnycake

Catherder said:


> You have the right idea but grossly underestimate the dimensions of my fat head and the density of what is inside it.


Just crank up the pressure to bust up the crust. Switching to warm water will also help relax your sphincter.


----------



## CPAjeff

Catherder said:


> In the interest of sharing, I'm all ears for some hot stock advice (other than buy and hold) at the moment. Other than extreme volatility I don't see much that is predictable from week to week with the current events. You wouldn't want me to sell off and buy toilet paper at the next set of bad news.


If only you would have invited me on one of your Strawberry ice fishing trips . . .


----------



## CPAjeff

backcountry said:


> I understand and can sincerely respect your ideals. You seem to live what you share here. More power to you.
> 
> But your gross generalization and then gloating comes across as callous as not everyone had your knowledge or means. Once again, not my problem. I never grew up with a silver spoon. My parents taught their children to work hard, save for a rainy day, and take school serious. No matter what you think they should have done, some people will have to delay retirement because of this crash. Added the word 'some' to make your statement more correct. That's not wrong, it's real. True, it is real. This is real money, these are real lives, these are real families. When are people going to accept responsibility for their own welfare and stop expecting everyone to espouse the dogma of hakuna matata? The stock market is at an AMAZING time - do I care if that offends anyone? Not one bit.
> 
> What in the heaven's name for? The question exposes to me that either you don't have a high risk person in your life or don't see substance beyond the "scare" of Covid-19. No on both accounts. However, the irony of life is from the moment we take our first breath, every subsequent breath we take gets us one more closer to our last. This disease has a very high fatality rate for certain groups, my mother-in-law is one. ALS results in the wasting of muscles, including the diaphragm. She had difficulty coughing in Dec/Jan with a mild infection. Covid-19 is severe for her demographic. It's not an overstatement to say she could die in the next 2 months if this becomes community spread where I live.
> 
> The reality is she is going to die because of lung failure no matter what but that could be months or years from now. As long as she is mobile and can talk we will do everything in our means for her to keep having quality memories with my wife. The CDC is recommending high risk individuals start to socially distance themselves. It's a valid, rational response to save lives. My wife will likely have to telecommute at the end of the month as a dozen plus people in her business are still going to Europe. My wife isn't vulnerable but we can't risk bringing it into our house.
> 
> This isn't just a "scare". This a weird respiratory virus that is already killing the elderly stateside. We have zero immunity and no medical cure.
> 
> That's why.


See my comments in red.

I've experienced the loss of four infant children in my own family. Does it impact me when people talk about certain illnesses, genetic traits, or genetic disorders that caused such losses? Not one **** bit. It's life, plain and simple.

Would it bother me if someone 'gloated' about market gains due to something that could cause the demise of a loved one? Not one **** bit.


----------



## Catherder

CPAjeff said:


> If only you would have invited me on one of your Strawberry ice fishing trips . . .


I'm going tomorrow! 8)

But the car is full.:sad:


----------



## RandomElk16

Lone_Hunter said:


> 1 case that officials know about. Realistically, the corona virus probably came into Utah a couple weeks ago. At the most risk is our elderly.


Yep.

What I have learned is if people who were on cruises that tested positive for the virus, or traveled out of the country still can't even isolate themselves a little (like not attending a very public major sporting event), then no one will.

Those were both high risk individuals in high risk situations and didn't think twice about going out and about so we never stood a chance.


----------



## backcountry

CPAjeff said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I understand and can sincerely respect your ideals. You seem to live what you share here. More power to you.
> 
> But your gross generalization and then gloating comes across as callous as not everyone had your knowledge or means. Once again, not my problem. I never grew up with a silver spoon. My parents taught their children to work hard, save for a rainy day, and take school serious. No matter what you think they should have done, some people will have to delay retirement because of this crash. Added the word 'some' to make your statement more correct. That's not wrong, it's real. True, it is real. This is real money, these are real lives, these are real families. When are people going to accept responsibility for their own welfare and stop expecting everyone to espouse the dogma of hakuna matata? The stock market is at an AMAZING time - do I care if that offends anyone? Not one bit.
> 
> What in the heaven's name for? The question exposes to me that either you don't have a high risk person in your life or don't see substance beyond the "scare" of Covid-19. No on both accounts. However, the irony of life is from the moment we take our first breath, every subsequent breath we take gets us one more closer to our last. This disease has a very high fatality rate for certain groups, my mother-in-law is one. ALS results in the wasting of muscles, including the diaphragm. She had difficulty coughing in Dec/Jan with a mild infection. Covid-19 is severe for her demographic. It's not an overstatement to say she could die in the next 2 months if this becomes community spread where I live.
> 
> The reality is she is going to die because of lung failure no matter what but that could be months or years from now. As long as she is mobile and can talk we will do everything in our means for her to keep having quality memories with my wife. The CDC is recommending high risk individuals start to socially distance themselves. It's a valid, rational response to save lives. My wife will likely have to telecommute at the end of the month as a dozen plus people in her business are still going to Europe. My wife isn't vulnerable but we can't risk bringing it into our house.
> 
> This isn't just a "scare". This a weird respiratory virus that is already killing the elderly stateside. We have zero immunity and no medical cure.
> 
> That's why.
> 
> 
> 
> See my comments in red.
> 
> I've experienced the loss of four infant children in my own family. Does it impact me when people talk about certain illnesses, genetic traits, or genetic disorders that caused such losses? Not one **** bit. It's life, plain and simple.
> 
> Would it bother me if someone 'gloated' about market gains due to something that could cause the demise of a loved one? Not one **** bit.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry you have suffered such loss. That type of trauma hurts in ways most of us will never grasp. You have my sincere sympathy.

Congratulations on your success. Not a single person in my family grew up with a silver spoon. Not all have done as well as you and I have no doubt your hard work and dedication play a large role in your life.

But gloating and asking for a crisis to continue on a thread in which multiple people have talked about how this epidemic/pandemic directly threatens their loved ones isn't an analog to your trauma or success. It's not a "scare" or some esoteric conversation about dying the moment we start living. People are already dying. We get news tomorrow about how much my mother-in-law's diaphragm had wasted away. Her new ventilator seems to be held up at the worst possible and possibly because the CDC has explicitly stated we have a shortage of them. And I'm guessing at least a handful of people on this forum will be directly impacted by Covid-19 and odds are at least one of us will lose a loved one.

But you know, keep saying you hope this "continues and continues". It ultimately reflects on your sense of humanity, not mine. I just never pegged you to be so anti-social and callous; I hope in moments of crisis or severe challenges you are surrounded by people who behave better than you currently are.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Lone_Hunter said:
> 
> 
> 
> 1 case that officials know about. Realistically, the corona virus probably came into Utah a couple weeks ago. At the most risk is our elderly.
> 
> 
> 
> Yep.
> 
> What I have learned is if people who were on cruises that tested positive for the virus, or traveled out of the country still can't even isolate themselves a little (like not attending a very public major sporting event), then no one will.
> 
> Those were both high risk individuals in high risk situations and didn't think twice about going out and about so we never stood a chance.
Click to expand...

There have been a couple broken quarantine orders recently that are alarming. I still have hope people will step up and be civic minded but who knows. If people can't resist going to a kids play what are the odds an hourly wage earner stays home sick for 7-14 days without pay?

And I'm not sure how severely counties and states are willing to be in enforcing the full weight of the law regarding quarantines. That's an unenviable role and decision to make.

I just hope it doesn't take more outbreaks at nursing homes for people to realize what this disease means. Just the threat at them and Assisted Living facilities is intimidating to our healthcare system.


----------



## CPAjeff

backcountry said:


> I'm sorry you have suffered such loss. That type of trauma hurts in ways most of us will never grasp. You have my sincere sympathy.
> 
> Congratulations on your success. Not a single person in my family grew up with a silver spoon. Not all have done as well as you and I have no doubt your hard work and dedication play a large role in your life.
> 
> But gloating and asking for a crisis to continue on a thread in which multiple people have talked about how this epidemic/pandemic directly threatens their loved ones isn't an analog to your trauma or success. It's not a "scare" or some esoteric conversation about dying the moment we start living. People are already dying. We get news tomorrow about how much my mother-in-law's diaphragm had wasted away. Her new ventilator seems to be held up at the worst possible and possibly because the CDC has explicitly stated we have a shortage of them. And I'm guessing at least a handful of people on this forum will be directly impacted by Covid-19 and odds are at least one of us will lose a loved one.
> 
> But you know, keep saying you hope this "continues and continues". It ultimately reflects on your sense of humanity, not mine. I just never pegged you to be so anti-social and callous; I hope in moments of crisis or severe challenges you are surrounded by people who behave better than you currently are.


Best of luck beating this 'scare'. Like I said before, life isn't a popularity contest for me. I'll make you a deal, if this 'scare' turns into more than just a 'scare' (i.e. more than 25,000 deaths in 2020) - I'll completely apologize and renounce my stance on it being a 'scare' - until then, being called anti-social and callous is just fine by me. I haven't drank the Kool-Aid, like some people have . . . wait, is that disgraceful to use the term 'drank the Kool-Aid' because that might offend someone in a far off place (i.e. Guyana) who had a relative that did drink something back in 1978?


----------



## 3arabians

Be careful with the Coronavirus kool-aid.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-coronavirus-dozens-die-bootleg-alcohol-poisoning

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

Don't forget to take your Forsythia as well


----------



## Vanilla

Market back up with another huge rebound. Overall, not down much. If you’ve played it correctly, you could have made a killing in just two weeks. 

Unfortunately I’m not in that game.


----------



## DallanC

backcountry said:


> Don't forget to take your Forsythia as well


I like that movie. Time to watch it again.

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> Market back up with another huge rebound. Overall, not down much. If you've played it correctly, you could have made a killing in just two weeks.


Yeah, we didn't get any missives from Oili today either.

I expect we will see more days like both today and yesterday this spring. Only CPAjeff knows how to time the ups and downs and he won't tell us until I take him to Strawberry. Too bad for all of us that I have to work the rest of the week after tomorrow.

Oh well, since the riots are supposed to start Saturday, I suppose it is for the best that I'm at work.


----------



## backcountry

One of the benefits of living in a heavily armed town is my fear of riots is about zero. I'm glad they have the decency to schedule them 😁

I think Oli and "They" are in a board meeting.


----------



## CPAjeff

There are thousands of analysts who believe they can beat the market - I am not one of them. One trick I have found is to have various funded buckets of money. I have long-term investments that will ride the wave, carry a modest interest rate, and really grow over time. I have money that is specifically marked for days like today and yesterday. I have three or four companies I track constantly, I know what their stock is worth, when to buy, and when to sale. 

I've lost plenty of money in the market before I learned to establish a selling threshold. As soon as the stock meets my selling threshold, it's gone - no matter what the 'experts' say.


----------



## Vanilla

I have so much to learn from CPAJeff. Wyoming pronghorn, stock market, and spreadsheeting. This is going to cost me an expensive lunch!


----------



## CPAjeff

Vanilla said:


> I have so much to learn from CPAJeff. Wyoming pronghorn, stock market, and spreadsheeting. This is going to cost me an expensive lunch!


Ah please! Remember Catherder's reference to McDonald's and bangwagoners?? That's my kind of food - cheap, quick, and out of your system in 15 minutes . . . I've stopped my quick stops at McDonalds though due to the TP shortage.

I'm still working on that list that we talked about last week. Some people up there must be thinking they'll catch Corona if they answer their phones.


----------



## 3arabians

Hey Jeff! Have you played any of the corona vaccine stocks? Holy moly those are volatile. I watched one jump 700% this morning while a few others sunk like a rock. I’m not brave enough to play those or experienced enough but dang that would be fun to be on the right side of and horrific to be on the wrong side. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## CPAjeff

3arabians said:


> Hey Jeff! Have you played any of the corona vaccine stocks? Holy moly those are volatile. I watched one jump 700% this morning while a few others sunk like a rock. I'm not brave enough to play those or experienced enough but dang that would be fun to be on the right side of and horrific to be on the wrong side.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Hey Jake!

No sir, those stocks are a little too risky for my blood! A 700% increase would be insane!


----------



## johnnycake

I prefer to take a moderate risk approach with my stocks etc. and get my gambling and risk loving satisfaction in the crypto markets. That stuff has been a total blast to play with the past 4 years!


----------



## Critter

I made a investment today, I spent $10 on 5 chances on to nights MegaBall drawing. 

5 chances at $70,000,000. 

Not too good of odds but if you don't play you can't win


----------



## 3arabians

CPAjeff said:


> Hey Jake!
> 
> No sir, those stocks are a little too risky for my blood! A 700% increase would be insane!


Same! But if one wanted to sit in the couch in Utah and have a Vegas type experience that's one way to do it!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

Too funny


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I think Oli and "They" are in a board meeting.


Looks like "They" have been busy. Dow futures down 400 points as I type after today's rally. If the drop sustains, predict next end-of-world manifesto by about noon tomorrow.


----------



## backcountry

Alex Jones was arrested and charged with DWI, maybe the Board was busy paying his bail:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/alex-jones-infowars-arrested-charged-dwi-texas


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Alex Jones was arrested and charged with DWI, maybe the Board was busy paying his bail:
> 
> https://www.foxnews.com/media/alex-jones-infowars-arrested-charged-dwi-texas


Perhaps, or maybe "They" set him up at this critical time, because he was revealing too much?


----------



## Lone_Hunter

RandomElk16 said:


> Yep.
> 
> What I have learned is if people who were on cruises that tested positive for the virus, or traveled out of the country still can't even isolate themselves a little (like not attending a very public major sporting event), then no one will.
> 
> Those were both high risk individuals in high risk situations and didn't think twice about going out and about so we never stood a chance.


Everyone is special don't ya know. Special people don't deal well with hard rules; there's always an exception for themselves if they think the rule is too tough, or too much of an inconvenience.


----------



## backcountry

Lone_Hunter said:


> RandomElk16 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yep.
> 
> What I have learned is if people who were on cruises that tested positive for the virus, or traveled out of the country still can't even isolate themselves a little (like not attending a very public major sporting event), then no one will.
> 
> Those were both high risk individuals in high risk situations and didn't think twice about going out and about so we never stood a chance.
> 
> 
> 
> Everyone is special don't ya know. Special people don't deal well with hard rules; there's always an exception for themselves if they think the rule is too tough, or too much of an inconvenience.
Click to expand...

Keeping your wife in mind before Utah starts seeing it's eventual rise in cases, Lone. I don't know what level of care she provides but we as a nation are about to remember why healthcare workers are so critical. I hope she's able to stay rested and healthy as demand increases.

I can say I had no clue about the quarantine laws available to local and state governments until this outbreak. I need to ask my mom what she remembers about her Polio quarantine but she was pretty young and that was different as she was isolated from her family.

Germany is preparing it's citizens for 60-70% of its population to become infected. At 82 million people, that means more than 49 million sick. Even if we drop fatality rate to 0.009% they are basically claiming at least 440,000 people potentially dying. Who knows how accurate that will turnout but it's not a pretty picture to discuss with the public.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Germany is preparing it's citizens for 60-70% of its population to become infected.


Why? We haven't seen that rate anywhere else. Not even close to that. Why does Germany thing it's going to have such astronomically higher rates than everyone else?


----------



## bowgy

Meh, just mother natures way of culling the herd.:shock:

Oh no he dinnin't.

Too soon?


----------



## Vanilla

bowgy said:


> Meh, just mother natures way of culling the herd.:shock:
> 
> Oh no he dinnin't.
> 
> Too soon?


Not at all. Others, like johnnyThanos have been hoping half the population dies so he can draw his sheep tag!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Germany is preparing it's citizens for 60-70% of its population to become infected.
> 
> 
> 
> Why? We haven't seen that rate anywhere else. Not even close to that. Why does Germany thing it's going to have such astronomically higher rates than everyone else?
Click to expand...

Don't know. Can't compare to China. In Italy it was doubling every 3-4 days before nation wide quarantine. Looks to have slowed yesterday. Seems like a really high number to me.

I wonder if it includes all of 2020 as it's likely to flare back up in November in the northern hemisphere, if other coronaviruses serve as a model for slowing during summer. But maybe they have new information that it's not affected by temperature and humidity?

Anybody read up on how Taiwan seems to have curtailed spread? Sounds like they learned from SARS and were aggressive as soon as first information was released. They started checking all planes that day for symptoms. Singapore had a similar response and success with containment.

At UofU today. Our clinic is wiping down every seat at check-in after use.


----------



## DallanC

This is a really interesting snippet of a larger discussion on Corona. I'm going to go back and listen to the full interview later (+2 hours).

For all the downplaying and humor in this thread (which I'm guilty of), this seems to be ramping up quite a bit, in the 10x to 15x worse than the normal flu.






-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

More news breaking today or the last few days worth noting here: 

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints not holding large gatherings, including general conference which will be via broadcast only. 

Sporting events being played without fans or cancelled outright. (Ivy League cancelled their entire conference tournament and will just send Yale to NCAAs.)

University of Utah with a travel restriction on employees, staff, and students. 

Looks like people are taking notice and doing what they can to mitigate spread.


----------



## caddis8

Just got multiple letters in my email concerning the Church's approach. 

Not all practice, believe, belong, or care about church, and that's ok. Not the place to bash. But in context of the virus response, this is pretty serious. 

However, very significant things:

1- General Conference public attendance closed. This is pretty significant. 
2- Missionaries who report to England or Provo will now be virtually trained.
3- All Large Gatherings in basically the northern hemisphere are going to be reduced, postponed or cancelled. Local services only at this point with additional guidance to come. 

Stake Conference (Had one scheduled for end of April is now postponed or cancelled). Saves me a 100 mile one way drive, but still pretty significant. 

So, not just because of church, but makes me wonder if things are in the middle of what the media and the government are saying. There are a ton of at risk demographics at church gatherings, so it makes sense. While I would likely survive, I could spread it to someone who doesn't. Me in particular because of the amount of contact I have with people.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, definitely not the flu and potentially worse if it keeps spreading like it is in Italy, Iran and US. WHO officially declared it a Pandemic today.

I'm guessing US cases are at least 10-100 times more common given primary limitation is testing. Good news is numbers are stabilizing and we are now down to 11% severe worldwide.

Thx for the link. I myself get dark humor and have no problem mocking zombie types of conspiracies but "culling" type of comments can hurt and probably won't age well.

This is definitely very real and very dangerous in a way we haven't seen before. There is a reason doctors on the frontlines and epidemiologist are being so blunt at the moment. If more nations step up like Taiwan it could change but given it's clearly community spread here and Europe it seems we will likely only flatten the curve not prevent full spread. I would be very happy to be wrong on that educated guess though.

https://tinyurl.com/rqs25t9

https://tinyurl.com/vx4xxde


----------



## PBH

Vanilla said:


> More news breaking today or the last few days worth noting here:
> 
> ...
> 
> Looks like people are taking notice and doing what they can to mitigate spread.


China has closed access to Mt. Everest.


----------



## DallanC

In the past hour the WHO just declared Covid-19 global pandemic. Now the UN can start setting up quarantine zones.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-pandemic/

-DallanC


----------



## PBH

olibooger said:


> Less than a month we will look like Italy.


Italy's average age is much higher than the US. It is close to being the oldest.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Watching the Covid19 scoreboard:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It's really starting to take off now I think. Seems like yesterday we were at 700+ confirmed cases, now we are over 1000.

Looking at the graphs for the US:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The next few weeks are going to be interesting.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Once they begin seriously testing in the United States, the numbers are going to jump.


They would jump everywhere, not just here. It's logically impossible to believe that the reported numbers are anywhere even close to the ACTUAL number around the world.


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> It's logically impossible to believe that the reported numbers are anywhere even close to the ACTUAL number around the world.


100% factual, due to some infected people having mild effects, recovering and not realizing it was even Corona.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> olibooger said:
> 
> 
> 
> Once they begin seriously testing in the United States, the numbers are going to jump.
> 
> 
> 
> They would jump everywhere, not just here. It's logically impossible to believe that the reported numbers are anywhere even close to the ACTUAL number around the world.
Click to expand...

Definitely. US is hindered more than China or even S. Korea on testing but every country is limited on testing the symptomatic or those seeking help. How many people are carriers and don't know it or just think it's seasonal gunk/flu?

The antibody surveys will be the ultimate statistical gauge but that's years off.

Any country that didn't contain it, which is most, are going to see a massive spike the next few weeks. US will be unique as a country given our geography but not much other than that.


----------



## Critter

I herd today on the radio that Wuhan China hasn't had a new case in about a week. Perhaps it has peaked over there

At least that is what I believe that I heard.


----------



## backcountry

Italy isn't slowing down, exploding with new #s infections today even with quarantine. Those are not driven by age but the fatality rate will be. The interviews from doctors over there are frightening.


----------



## bowgy

Wuhan China the city alone has almost 4 times the people crammed into the city as the whole state of Utah.

I think that may affect the way it is spread also.


----------



## bowgy

A family friend of ours is in China teaching and is another large city that is in lock down but a long ways from Wuhan and last we heard there were no cases there, but he can't work and is having his family send money to pay rent. 

He is able to come home but won't because he thinks that he won't be able to go back.


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> Sure I could be wrong.
> But right now, I really dont think I am.
> I'm putting myself out there to inform you guys.
> 
> Here is another good source of information.
> 
> https://www.naturalnews.com/


Could be wrong? You are linking Natural News.

I do like the good laugh. Thank you for that.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Could be wrong? You are linking Natural News.
> 
> I do like the good laugh. Thank you for that.


The answer for coronavirus? Kratom. It's science...


----------



## Vanilla

NCAA just announced both men and women NCAA tournaments will be played without fans. 

That will be interesting. Too bad Bobby Knight isn't still coaching so we could hear what he was REALLY saying with no crowd noise. (Coach K does a fine job representing...)


----------



## RandomElk16

Dude is in here screaming it's bioengineered virus (biowarfare) and the severity of the virus... and continues to say don't panic, it's all good. 

It's straight out of a circle-scene from "That 70's Show" or the back of a van with Cheech & Chong.


----------



## RandomElk16

Someone under 60(male) has it in Summit County.

He was in Europe, surprise surprise. 


Again, people need to ask themselves "Am I a high risk individual? Was I in a high risk environment?"


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Number 3. Summit county.
https://www.fox13now.com/news/local...th-confirms-third-case-of-coronavirus-in-utah


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> WoW.
> 
> Dont say I didnt try.
> 
> &#128078; ✌


You did link one of the worst hoax/scam sites around. How much money is he making off of snake oil?

https://www.politifact.com/factchec...-misinformation-site-promotes-conspiracy-abo/


----------



## olibooger

What's funny is yall have straight up globalist website references along with Joe Rogan. Yall going to sit there and wait for it to slap you in the face?
Lmao.

Utterly hopeless.

Typical Utahns. Stop drinking the fluoride.

O well. Hopeless.


----------



## olibooger

Over half the country and a large percent of the globe is in preparation and on board with what is happening. Then there is you people. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣👎👎


----------



## backcountry

I think only a couple people aren't taking it seriously. But there is a big difference between thinking the entire thing is a hoax and claiming it's a bioweapon.

My conspiracy theory bingo card is filling up fast. I can cross off globalist now.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Utterly hopeless.
> 
> Typical Utahns.


I'd be interested to hear more about this. What do you mean?


----------



## Brookie

I like natural selection.


----------



## Brookie

Oli, the way you preach you shouldn't be worried cause according to you, you are saved and will be in a better place if things go really south with the virus.


----------



## backcountry

Wife's company cancelled trip to Europe less than 24 hours before Trump shutdown all air travel from Europe for next 30 days. 

Crazy times. Sigh of relief we don't have to consider long term isolation just because of that trip. Still likely to happen. Spent 6 hours in UofU today with medical team. They were very emphatic to protect her as much as possible. They obviously couldn't provide black and white answers about social distancing but I'd wager tonight was last dinner out for her/us. Her social calendar will likely be limited to people with zero symptoms at our or family/friend houses only. But we'll see. No roadmap for this journey.

Wild reading and seeing stories out of Italy. Poor families and medical staff having to watch this unfold with little or no control at this point.


----------



## Fowlmouth

Jazz/Thunder game cancelled seconds before tip off.


----------



## RandomElk16

Rudy isn't getting a monument now. 

Leave it to Utah to get the NBA cancelled.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Rudy isn't getting a monument now.
> 
> Leave it to Utah to get the NBA cancelled.


It's happening all so fast.


----------



## Critter

Well, the NBA has now suspended the rest of the season 

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## Catherder

RandomElk16 said:


> Rudy isn't getting a monument now.
> 
> Leave it to Utah to get the NBA cancelled.


Maybe but that Anuoby guy from Toronto is now really regretting that elbow shot he gave to Gobert in Mondays game.

Get well soon Gobert.

I guess Utah now has 4 cases too.


----------



## 2full

Oh well........
I was going to retire at the start of the summer this year. First my medical issues hit, and now the 401k goes to crap. 
Now I'm waiting for the virus to hit me. 
Just got back from Florida and the Bahamas last week. 
Story of my life.


----------



## brisket

*Mark of the Beast*

My dishwasher croaked. Purchased a new one yesterday, the total for the dishwasher and new water line plus tax was $666.00. Oli might be onto something here...



> Revelations 13:15-18
> 
> 15 And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed.
> 16 And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:
> 17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.
> 18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is *Six hundred threescore and six*.


----------



## Catherder

brisket said:


> My dishwasher croaked. Purchased a new one yesterday, the total for the dishwasher and new water line plus tax was $666.00. Oli might be onto something here...


Yikes, I think I would request to pay one dollar more.


----------



## RandomElk16

Weird how the US didn't have very many tests.. but now has enough for the entire NBA and personnel as a precaution...


----------



## Vanilla

So tonight’s reactions have left me frustrated. 

It is easy to look at things in hindsight, but if the NBA’s plan was to suspend the season the first time a player tested positive, then why wait? By the time a player tests positive, it’s too late. The time to suspend the season to reduce spread was two weeks ago. I don’t want to pile on the NBA, but hopefully that is a lesson for other arenas. 

I hope our school districts or universities don’t have the same plan. “Well, we will stick it out until a student and/or teacher tests positive and then we’ll cancel classes.” If you wait for that, it’s too late. If we wait for community spread to hit the fan to cancel church, work, gatherings, etc., then it’s too late. If the goal of cancelling these things is to reduce community spread, then the time to do it is now. Not in 2-3 weeks when the virus has spread, but now. If that’s the goal. If the goal is just appear to try to do something, then proceed as normal. But if we are really trying to slow/stop spread, now is the time to act. 

I’m not an epidemiologist. I’m just trying to play one on the Internet. But if Governor Herbert is planning to eventually issue an order banning gatherings of a certain size, then don’t wait. Do it now. Otherwise the ban is kind of a waste and too late. 

Anyway, that’s my vent. The time to act is now if you plan to act. Otherwise it will be too late and the action won’t mean much. That is for decision makers, not a call for all of us to freak out and buy all the napkins now that the TP is gone.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> So tonight's reactions have left me frustrated.
> 
> It is easy to look at things in hindsight, but if the NBA's plan was to suspend the season the first time a player tested positive, then why wait? By the time a player tests positive, it's too late. The time to suspend the season to reduce spread was two weeks ago. I don't want to pile on the NBA, but hopefully that is a lesson for other arenas.
> 
> I hope our school districts or universities don't have the same plan. "Well, we will stick it out until a student and/or teacher tests positive and then we'll cancel classes." If you wait for that, it's too late. If we wait for community spread to hit the fan to cancel church, work, gatherings, etc., then it's too late. If the goal of cancelling these things is to reduce community spread, then the time to do it is now. Not in 2-3 weeks when the virus has spread, but now. If that's the goal. If the goal is just appear to try to do something, then proceed as normal. But if we are really trying to slow/stop spread, now is the time to act.
> 
> I'm not an epidemiologist. I'm just trying to play one on the Internet. But if Governor Herbert is planning to eventually issue an order banning gatherings of a certain size, then don't wait. Do it now. Otherwise the ban is kind of a waste and too late.
> 
> Anyway, that's my vent. The time to act is now if you plan to act. Otherwise it will be too late and the action won't mean much. That is for decision makers, not a call for all of us to freak out and buy all the napkins now that the TP is gone.


You make some valid points. I will say though that I think this experience has been new for decision makers and they have had to react to a dynamic situation on the fly, and thus some of the responses may not have been "perfect" in hindsight. Partisans on each side will take their shots at the opposition, but I don't think the US response has been particularly bad so far. I agree with the Europe travel restriction and the domestic programs proposed tonight and earlier appear to be sound to both small business and individuals and families.

With recent events, I think you will see more aggressive action on things like large group gatherings.


----------



## weaversamuel76

I'd say the ball is rolling right now, with more coming in the next couple days.
This afternoon my hunting partners professional conference was cancelled that was out of state and scheduled to start on Friday. It was a really big deal in his profession. I was planning to do the Bataan death march on Saturday at White sands missile base and it was also cancelled early this afternoon. 

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

Agree with Vanilla. It sounds crazy but the "cancel everything" (not his words, s phrase making its way through media) approach is the way to save lives. 

"Flatten the Curve" needs to be our country's motto right now and I'm guessing for at least a month. This will hurt. We are already seeing billions of dollars lost from pro-active event cancellations: SXSW alone had attendance of 400k people. But we can get through "hurting" as long as we protect our healthcare workers and research teams.

This is not the time for timid leadership. This is the time for clear, concise and bold action. Having that spoken from leaders in our municipalities all the way to our nation's capital is how we prevent panic and create a unified purpose for this country the likes of which we haven't seen in decades. This country is pretty **** amazing when we work together against a genuine common enemy. Even if that enemy is only a virus 0.1 micron in size.

I would be lying if I didn't admit that benefits my household. But the reality is there are hundreds of thousands citizens across the country in way better condition than my MIL with many quality years ahead of them if they can just get through this epidemic. But they need our communities and agencies to truly step up in ways we haven't been asked in my entire life. 

*And yes, don't be my sister in law calling for everyone to panic buy two years worth of mayonnaise packets. Fact is even Italy is managing to keep power on, water flowing, pharmacies open and grocery stores stocked enough to keep citizens fed. And they are weeks ahead of us. We have neighbors, family and friends to lean on if someone in our household is sick. And if there is ever a state prepared for a disaster, it's Utah.


----------



## PBH

RandomElk16 said:


> Rudy isn't getting a monument now.
> 
> Leave it to Utah to get the NBA cancelled.


Defensive Player of the Year. Rudy shut down the whole league!
#DPOY


----------



## PBH

Vanilla said:


> If we wait for community spread to hit the fan to cancel church, work, gatherings, etc., then it's too late.


I feel like the LDS Church has been pretty proactive with this. But I can't figure out why they haven't canceled Sunday services yet. We're being told to not be around large groups, and to especially not be touching our faces. But that's exactly what we do on Sunday. We shake hands. We crowd into rooms and sit cheek-to-cheek. We pass around a try of food where kids (and some adults) sift through to find the best piece of bread, then we eat it. What little water might be left in the cup get's dumped back on the tray.

I've always been a bit weird about trying to sit on the back row where I can get first shot at the sacrament.....


----------



## PBH

Vanilla said:


> So tonight's reactions have left me frustrated.
> 
> It is easy to look at things in hindsight, but if the NBA's plan was to suspend the season the first time a player tested positive, then why wait?


Hindsight certainly helps. I have to think that the NBA was looking at this from the opposite perspective -- they wanted to protect the players from sick fans. They've been talking about playing in empty arenas, an obvious sign that players and officials were concerned about catching the virus from a sick fan.

Maybe fans should have been looking at the travel habits of sports teams and thinking just opposite -- fans should have been boycotting games in an effort to keep players from infecting us!

We've got softball tournaments this weekend (and next weekend) in St. George. Clark County (NV) school district has enacted a travel ban -- so the tournament is already being affected. There is another tournament next weekend -- I wonder how many cancellations there will be for it. Seeing what just happened with the NBA makes you start to wonder what's going to happen with our own schools. How long before our own employers start to see and feel the effects?


----------



## BGD

These are complex issues and tough decisions. Many factors at play. My daughter is scheduled to go on a school music trip to San Francisco in 10 days. I expect that it will be canceled but it has not yet. It is a tough call. 120 students and their families scrimped and saved $800 each to go and most or all of money will likely be lost as most vendors have already been paid by the school district. I’ve watched my daughter work hard all year to save money for that trip. 

I also have an employee on a trip in Europe right now that is slated to return in a week. He left before things started looking so dicey. I have been trying to decide how to deal with his return as we have some individuals with pre-existing medical conditions in the office that make them high risk. The recent Europe travel ban and accompanying requirements may take some of those decisions out of my hands but we could really use the help of that employee. Working from home is not a viable option for the work we need him to do. 

I think government officials have a tough job of trying to figure out the appropriate measures to take in being proactive but also not causing a panic. With all the talk of cancellations of events yesterday I have already seen the panic level ramping up another notch.


----------



## PBH

BGD -- unfortunately, all of us are facing similar situations. 

My daughter participates in the school orchestra. They have trip to Disneyland coming up that has already been paid for. At this point, we have no idea what will happen with this.

My brother has a trip to Iceland paid for in a couple weeks. Trump's Europe travel ban will prevent him and his family from coming home. Obviously, they won't be going.

my wife (school teacher) has a an aid that went to Italy 3 weeks ago. She's currently at home under a "self" quarantine. She will have gone 4 weeks without pay at the end of her quarantine. She isn't going to be able to pay her rent. Other teacher's have been pitching in to assure she has groceries for her family.


this is going to start affecting each of us.


----------



## backcountry

I feel for y'all. It's got to be tough for kids who've spent months or years preparing for these events.

My household income is earned from a boarding school. It could get ugly if it gets bad locally. 24/7 staffing could be challenging to say the least. I'm not sure families will even send their kids back after spring break if there is mass panic; though they might to help protect their own households (not to mention "why" they are at boarding school). Her school could be fine or sadly tank.

No control over either so we'll just do the only thing we can ....do our best to stay healthy and minimize spread. 

Best of luck folks. Plenty of awkward conversations happening in households nation wide.


----------



## Vanilla

My post wasn't intended to be critical of the NBA for being too late, just showing an example where waiting made it too late. A plea for others to take heed and to not be too late. 

Yes, this is all very new, there is a lot we still don't know, and these are tough decisions. However, we can learn from those that have gone before us. The ban on large gatherings in the Seattle Metro area...what good is that going to do for the thousands (tens of thousands?) already infected? We shouldn't wait for King County to happen in Salt Lake County before we take action. If, and I'm assuming that is still an "if" at this point, but IF the plan is to ban those large gatherings once we hit a certain point, well, then do it now, because if you don't, we are assured to hit that certain point. 

That is all that I am saying. I am really not panicking about this. I'm simply trying to brainstorm about how we slow the impact. Let's not take action after it's too late, if it is inevitable that the action will be taken anyway. Pull the band aide off quickly and be done with it, and let us start figuring out the next steps now, rather than in 3 weeks when it's too late to make a difference in mitigation. 

There are areas that successfully reduced infection rates early on, and there are areas that did not. We can learn from those places, but will we?

It is absolutely heart breaking to think about individuals struggling economically because of this, but those decisions to keep them away are no-brainers as far as I'm concerned. The people of Utah are good, and we will help our neighbors. But those that have been traveling need to stay away, period. Any other decision is a selfish and terrible decision that may put lives at risk. I wouldn't want that on my conscience.


----------



## Packout

We are in the same boat. Just found out this am that my daughter's choir trip to Seattle was cancelled, with my wife as chaperone. $1500 that most likely will be gone. 

And we have a family trip to Colombia and Paraguay in a month. That air fare wasn't cheap and the airline so far appears to not want to work with changes. Tough choice when booking- cheaper price with no refunds or we could have paid $1,400 more for changeable, but not refundable tickets. 

I've already lost projects due to the covid19 impacts on supply chains of goods for businesses in Utah who can't get their products from China. 

This whole covid19 issue is much more than the actual sickness. The Mental Sickness of uninfected people is the problem. Elderly neighbor can't buy toilet paper. Sick family member can't get meds or anti-bacterial wipes. 

"All for One and One for One."

...


----------



## CPAjeff

Packout said:


> The Mental Sickness of uninfected people is the problem.


THIS X 1,000,000


----------



## Vanilla

Talked to someone yesterday that told me he has 10 bulk size TP packages stored at his house. I asked him why, his response? "Everyone needs TP. I'll be able to trade it for other goods when others run out." Way to be on the lookout bro! 

Oh, and now Spida Mitchell has tested positive. Reports are Rudy was very careless when he got sick and was touching everyone else's stuff in the locker room. Now his teammate is infected. Can never trust the French. 

If they rename that monument, I'm going to propose we drill there.


----------



## shaner

Anyone going to the ISE show next week?


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> If they rename that monument, I'm going to propose we drill there.


Hell yeah! lol.

He is the exact case we talked about earlier of people who think they are special. I am not saying he shouldn't play... but he could have not been so "extra" about everything knowing he had people come in from a high risk area.


----------



## DallanC

We haven't really bought anything "extra" since this all went down. I did notice the first day amazon sold out of face masks, before the media even broke the news... and ordered a small pack of face masks ($5), just to see how fast supply could keep up with demand.

That has been a fascinating experiment actually... the delivery date off a Jan 4th order is now May 29th... and its still slipping. What that tells me, is demand in China far exceeded anything we've even remotely been told here in the US. That they cant come close to producing enough to cover demand there, let alone here. Hence the arrival date slipping... _they haven't even made the masks yet to cover my order._

That then made me look into distribution chains for other non-medical items. How will this effect auto parts mfgs, auto manufacturing, heck manufacturing of most everything else? Apparently small businesses are failing in China as alot of them have short term loans to keep afloat, and they are unable to pay back that debt with no consumers.

I used to be in an industry that would wrap projects late Sept, factories in China would rush MFG'ing and air freight items back to the US for Christmas. That model is frankly is DOA this year. MFG will be so far behind and impeded at this point just making necessary items, Christmas type stuff just wont make it.

I semi-jokingly told co-workers yesterday "do your Christmas shopping now"... but thinking over a bit more seriously, its not a bad idea. If you know you are going to need something over the summer or towards fall (dishwasher, Tv, truck tires... whatever), you might want to consider it sooner rather than later.

I'm going to get all our propane bottles topped off this weekend. Its something do yearly anyway... might as well get'er done now.

-DallanC


----------



## Critter




----------



## caddis8

My folks are in Germany and have been there almost a year. They got a call and they're coming home ASAP, don't have a plane, but will then be self-quarantined. 

There are very few scraps of toilet paper left in the system. Sam's Club, Costco, Wal-Mart, and even Amazon are pretty much out. There is some left, but that's kind of like John Wayne. Rough, tough, and don't take crap off anyone. 

Johnny was on to something. Hello Tushy stock price has got a very high cieling. I am seriously considering getting one, and I'll have to figure out the wiring, may end up being a 4 way plug.


----------



## Critter

It is funny with people and TP. 

Quite a few members on here remember that when they were young parents that they used cloth diapers for the youngsters rear end. And while I personally don't remember it I know that I had cloth diapers for my rear along with a lot of the members here. 

So what is wrong with wiping your rear with cloth, rinsing it out and then putting it into a hamper to be laundered? I actually think that cloth diapers and wipes are a lot less gross than what parents do with their disposable diapers.


----------



## DallanC

I remember my mom soaking cloth diapers in the toilet to wash them.

My wife said we had a 3 month supply of TP on hand when the run first started. You can find RV toilet paper at some of the RV places still... its rather lousy paper, but hey and if its all you can find...it works. 

Just eat less Taco Bell and you wont burn through TP as fast :mrgreen:

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

Yep, you washed out the chunks and threw it into the hamper or diaper pail. 

You could go through a number of kids with the same diapers.


----------



## caddis8

Oh we'll be fine because we have running water and a boatload of washclothes. 

I don't eat taco bell. 

I work from home, so that part isn't that difficult and this could actually be good for the company, but it's still difficult for those affected. 

Home Health can be affected if nurses can't get out to visit people or lack supplies to be safe themselves.


----------



## Wanderer

Cloth diapers for the kids here, so that shouldn't be an issue for us. I haven't seen diaper shortages at the stores myself, however.


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> and ordered a small pack of face masks ($5), just to see how fast supply could keep up with demand.
> 
> That has been a fascinating experiment actually... the delivery date off a Jan 4th order is now May 29th... and its still slipping. What that tells me, is demand in China far exceeded anything we've even remotely been told here in the US. That they cant come close to producing enough to cover demand there, let alone here. Hence the arrival date slipping... _they haven't even made the masks yet to cover my order._


This is exactly right. When I was ordering masks for our business, the supplier explained that was exactly what was happening. China made most of the masks used here and they weren't releasing them for export. Fortunately, domestic suppliers have stepped in some and we have been able to continue to get masks and critical customers in health care have been able to get what they need still. (so far)

With respect to the Jazz, Gobert National Park may be done, but what is definitely imperiled is the teams locker room chemistry. It sounds like the Stifle tower couldn't stifle himself from risky behavior lately, per some teammates. Lesson for everyone.


----------



## PBH

#GSENM4Ever

Rudy's demise is unfortunate. I would guess that other NBA players already have the virus, and don't know it yet. They may have even been infected _prior to Gobert_. Nonetheless, Gobert will go down in history as the player that shutdown the NBA. He'll take the fall for this, as already pointed out by reports of risky behavior. Risky behavior or not, it was probably already a done deal.

This is a good example, however, of what we should not be doing.


----------



## backcountry

I still have hope people will be thoughtful but the TP hoarding could be evidence that is misplaced. It makes no sense. My wife's family (aunt and uncle) in the medical industry live alone now and bought 2-3 packages of Costco bulk TP. They said it "made sense" which just left shaking my head. 

Caddis is right about home health care services. We are slowly hearing stories about the impacts of hoarding. It has an impact on those in need. Sadly many local services require stock from Walmart and local stores to meet their needs.


----------



## Catherder

PBH said:


> #GSENM4Ever
> 
> Rudy's demise is unfortunate. I would guess that other NBA players already have the virus, and don't know it yet.


It does make one wonder how long they have had it. Donovan was reportedly asymptomatic (showing no symptoms) but it has seemed in watching the Jazz that both he and Gobert have been "off" their games for the past week or so, even though the Jazz won most of them.


----------



## caddis8

We'll see on the Home Health Stuff. That's the industry I'm in now, and we're not seeing much.....yet..... If anything, business has increased, but we'll see what the downstream result is if nurses can't get supplies or get there. 

Interesting times for sure.


----------



## Dunkem

Just left Costco, (had to have my hot dog) Got there 10 minutes after they had opened, place was a ZOO!!~ We got a few things and then waited 30 minutes to get checked out, everybody had water, no toilet paler, but Kleenex and such were near empty. Could see the look in everyones eyes that they are serious about all this. Just glad we are ok, and locked and loaded.8)


----------



## Fowlmouth

Murray School District closing down. How long before the other districts follow? Any guesses?


----------



## Fowlmouth

The TP thing is crazy! I mean other places besides Walmart, Sams and Costco sell the stuff. Lucky's had plenty.


----------



## PBH

Fowlmouth said:


> Murray School District closing down. How long before the other districts follow? Any guesses?


We'll know in a few minutes. Sherbert is speaking right now, and will turn it over to the State Superintendent pretty quick...

--Are any of these people speaking LDS? "I'm thankful to be here speaking to you today..."


----------



## olibooger

Wake up people. Reality doesn't wait for common sense. 🤣🤣


----------



## backcountry

SUU just announced all courses will be online after spring break. Campus will still be open; tough balance given student needs.


----------



## Packout

Gov just announced no gatherings of 100 or more people? Wow. No church. No schools. No expos. No Costco?haha

Will movie theaters only sell 90 tickets per showing? Etc......
So much vagueness...

..


----------



## DallanC

backcountry said:


> SUU just announced all courses will be online after spring break. Campus will still be open; tough balance given student needs.


Ditto for UoU. I'm on a corporate call / meeting right now about if we are going to a "work from home" strategy.

-DallanC


----------



## johnnycake

caddis8 said:


> My folks are in Germany and have been there almost a year. They got a call and they're coming home ASAP, don't have a plane, but will then be self-quarantined.
> 
> There are very few scraps of toilet paper left in the system. Sam's Club, Costco, Wal-Mart, and even Amazon are pretty much out. There is some left, but that's kind of like John Wayne. Rough, tough, and don't take crap off anyone.
> 
> Johnny was on to something. Hello Tushy stock price has got a very high cieling. I am seriously considering getting one, and I'll have to figure out the wiring, may end up being a 4 way plug.


Hello Tushy doesn't require a plug in or electricity fyi. So all you really need to do is figure out the tubing/connections to make it work with your sink supply. Should be doable, and the company supposedly is really good to help you problem solve an unusual connection. If you do figure it out, post pics and let me know! I've been wanting to stick one in my trailer but have just been too lazy to work through the problem. I hate RV paper, it is awful.


----------



## DallanC

Packout said:


> Gov just announced no gatherings of 100 or more people? Wow. No church. No schools. No expos. No Costco?haha


There ya go for tag numbers for the fall... 99 per unit :mrgreen:

-DallanC


----------



## johnnycake

The people with the most bonus points are generally in or near the most at risk age demographic of COVID-19. Just sayin'

#ThisLittleCakesGoinSheepHunting2020


----------



## Hunttilidrop

I’m just surprised Oli is still posting on here and hasn’t gathered up his family members and headed for the hills!


----------



## weaversamuel76

Hunttilidrop said:


> I'm just surprised Oli is still posting on here and hasn't gathered up his family members and headed for the hills!


Come on you know he's working on digging a bunker in the back yard.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


----------



## PBH

My employer: "we can't make parts from home"


No home vacation for me. Unless I get sick. Then I can sleep in.


----------



## caddis8

johnnycake said:


> Hello Tushy doesn't require a plug in or electricity fyi. So all you really need to do is figure out the tubing/connections to make it work with your sink supply. Should be doable, and the company supposedly is really good to help you problem solve an unusual connection. If you do figure it out, post pics and let me know! I've been wanting to stick one in my trailer but have just been too lazy to work through the problem. I hate RV paper, it is awful.


Ok, so I did some research. My FIL has a BIO Bidet seat, $700, yikes. But it self heats the water, which would probably be a better set up for my bathroom as the house is 100 years old, so I'm trying to figure out how to get the hot water access over to the toilet without a 10 foot hose and cluttering things up. The shower has hot water access and I may be able to come through the wall, but that is a dangerous undertaking because every time I tear into the house, something else is discovered as broken/screwed up.

I'm not sure I want drop $700 bones on that in the current house, but I can probably bring electric over much easier than string the warm water.

Does it self heat? How long does it take for the warm water to warm up from being in the pipe/hose? I'm not sure what would be worse, cold water that we know is coming, or be expecting warm water only to get a cold water spritz until it warms up.

Serious business here.


----------



## Fowlmouth

Just got out of the store. Holy bat$hit crazy! People are in full panic (hoarding mode) I watched several people fill up carts with 25lb bags of rice. I hate rice! Anyway, the TP aisle was obliterated today. What next? Is it time to pull thousands of dollars from savings to have cash on hand?


----------



## johnnycake

caddis8 said:


> Ok, so I did some research. My FIL has a BIO Bidet seat, $700, yikes. But it self heats the water, which would probably be a better set up for my bathroom as the house is 100 years old, so I'm trying to figure out how to get the hot water access over to the toilet without a 10 foot hose and cluttering things up. The shower has hot water access and I may be able to come through the wall, but that is a dangerous undertaking because every time I tear into the house, something else is discovered as broken/screwed up.
> 
> I'm not sure I want drop $700 bones on that in the current house, but I can probably bring electric over much easier than string the warm water.
> 
> Does it self heat? How long does it take for the warm water to warm up from being in the pipe/hose? I'm not sure what would be worse, cold water that we know is coming, or be expecting warm water only to get a cold water spritz until it warms up.
> 
> Serious business here.


The Hello Tushy Spa model ~$100 has a line that connects to a hot water source (typically under your sink) and a line that connects below the back of the toilet for cold water. So really, the warm water option gets warm just the same as your faucet or shower.

The set up also really makes it so the "cold" is whatever temp the water is in the back of the toilet, and frankly, the cold is quite pleasant and refreshing. I was surprised by that really. But I like the ability to warm up the water too. The hot water line is discrete and I just run it to the wall and along the top of the baseboard a couple feet into the back of the vanity. Took about 10 minutes to set everything up and I didn't have to drill into any walls or anything.


----------



## DallanC

Fowlmouth said:


> Is it time to pull thousands of dollars from savings to have cash on hand?


You should already have that. You cant imagine how many amazing ksl deals I've been able to leap on because I had cash on hand right then and there .

But as for money during a super downturn / depression. You are really better off having "junk silver" for trades. Any pre-1964 us coinage is 90% silver. The run-up in silver price has beat the stock market by a long shot as of today. I like the 40's coins, people don't even question them. Merc dimes, walking liberty halves, standing liberty quarters... all useful for small denomination trades.

Honestly though, if stuff really goes sideways having a half dozen to dozen laying hens will beat just about anything else, you can trade eggs for nearly anything you need. And you get new ones almost every day. Our flock of 12 produces about 60-70 eggs a week.

-DallanC


----------



## Fowlmouth

March Madness now canceled...


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Earlier today, it occurred to me at some point, we're going to get another announcement from whoever it is that manages the water treatment plants, asking everyone to stop flushing paper towels down the toilet because they jam up the works.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> Earlier today, it occurred to me at some point, we're going to get another announcement from whoever it is that manages the water treatment plants, asking everyone to stop flushing paper towels down the toilet because they jam up the works.


Paper towels actually sold out before the toilet paper... along with tissues. So its doubtful there will be that many people using them for TP.

-DallanC


----------



## Fowlmouth

DallanC said:


> But as for money during a super downturn / depression. You are really better off having "junk silver" for trades. Any pre-1964 us coinage is 90% silver. The run-up in silver price has beat the stock market by a long shot as of today. I like the 40's coins, people don't even question them. Merc dimes, walking liberty halves, standing liberty quarters... all useful for small denomination trades.
> -DallanC


My wife worked in retail for 14 years. She would "buy" all the old silver coins that were in her till at the end of the day. She has a bunch of them.


----------



## DallanC

Cool. She should dig them out and look them over. There are some fairly rare expensive coins that remained in circulation for a long time.

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

DallanC said:


> But as for money during a super downturn / depression. You are really better off having "junk silver" for trades. Any pre-1964 us coinage is 90% silver. The run-up in silver price has beat the stock market by a long shot as of today. I like the 40's coins, people don't even question them. Merc dimes, walking liberty halves, standing liberty quarters... all useful for small denomination trades.
> 
> -DallanC


Today silver is down a little over a dollar and gold is down close to 70 dollars.

I picked up another few dollars worth of silver.


----------



## DallanC

Critter said:


> Today silver is down a little over a dollar and gold is down close to 70 dollars.
> 
> I picked up another few dollars worth of silver.


On Sale pricing 

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

It's nuts around Cedar right now. I needed some random stuff and that was a mistake. Glad I resupplied our weekly veggies and fruit last night.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> This isnt Hollywood. They've conditioned all of you. Break the cycle. You guys see the world around you preparing but you select group of people know better?! Give me a break!


I've cracked jokes. Who is saying I'm not prepared?


----------



## backcountry

Oli, I think this may be a group of one of the most prepared communities around.

We just haven't gone full Alex Jones.


----------



## Hunttilidrop

Dallan I also have a flock of 12 chickens. But they only produce 45 to 50 eggs per week. (See oli I also am prepared) just need to get them laying a few more per week like Dallan’s. Just because the world is coming to an abrupt end doesn’t mean you should lose your sense of humor.😉


----------



## Vanilla

Oli, you need to quit writing posts that are condescending and judgmental and then deleting them. 

I’m pretty comfortable with my personal relationship with Jesus Christ. I’m also comfortable that you don’t know what you’re talking about. 

I retract my previous statement saying you shouldn’t stop posting. Maybe you should until you’re able to act like a disciple of Jesus Christ.


----------



## Clarq

caddis8 said:


> johnnycake said:
> 
> 
> 
> Hello Tushy doesn't require a plug in or electricity fyi. So all you really need to do is figure out the tubing/connections to make it work with your sink supply. Should be doable, and the company supposedly is really good to help you problem solve an unusual connection. If you do figure it out, post pics and let me know! I've been wanting to stick one in my trailer but have just been too lazy to work through the problem. I hate RV paper, it is awful.
> 
> 
> 
> Ok, so I did some research. My FIL has a BIO Bidet seat, $700, yikes. But it self heats the water, which would probably be a better set up for my bathroom as the house is 100 years old, so I'm trying to figure out how to get the hot water access over to the toilet without a 10 foot hose and cluttering things up. The shower has hot water access and I may be able to come through the wall, but that is a dangerous undertaking because every time I tear into the house, something else is discovered as broken/screwed up.
> 
> I'm not sure I want drop $700 bones on that in the current house, but I can probably bring electric over much easier than string the warm water.
> 
> Does it self heat? How long does it take for the warm water to warm up from being in the pipe/hose? I'm not sure what would be worse, cold water that we know is coming, or be expecting warm water only to get a cold water spritz until it warms up.
> 
> Serious business here.
Click to expand...

I know I'm weeks late to the party on this one, but my bidet is cold water only (plumbing it warm would be too much of a headache) and its still better than toilet paper. Just throwing that out there.


----------



## one4fishing

PBH said:


> My employer: "we can't make parts from home"
> 
> No home vacation for me. Unless I get sick. Then I can sleep in.


Hopefully you stay home if you get sick.


----------



## johnnycake

Clarq said:


> I know I'm weeks late to the party on this one, but my bidet is cold water only (plumbing it warm would be too much of a headache) and its still better than toilet paper. Just throwing that out there.


I knew I liked you for some reason


----------



## backcountry

Is there another time in recent history the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints fully cancelled all gatherings?


----------



## KineKilla

I was mandated to work from home for at least the next two weeks. Unless of course I have project meetings, which I do.

I don't want to work at home because that removes the joy of coming home after a day of work.

It is what it is...also some guy was in a nearby office coughing his lungs out today so maybe its for the better overall.

This would happen in a year where I have two great hunts planned.


----------



## shaner

Diseases like this have ran their course through the Earths entire population since the dawn of time.
We just didn’t have the internet to track it so easily.


----------



## middlefork

I get a kick out of people "social spacing" in Costco. I need 2 years worth of TP, let's stand in line with a 1000 other people to get it.

Maybe Darwin had it right.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Is there another time in recent history the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints fully cancelled all gatherings?


No. This is unprecedented.


----------



## Brookie

The chruch has delayed or canceled general conference in 1919 spanish flu and 1957 October for a bad flu season


----------



## middlefork

olibooger said:


> https://news.yahoo.com/150-million-americans-could-coronavirus-us-projection-185632345.html
> 
> Meh, low end 700,000 people in america die. Thats not too bad. That's from the virus alone. Double the number due to civil unrest and we are looking at half the population.
> 
> Vanilla. This is a public forum. Deletion of opinionated posts are allowed as far as I can tell.
> Unless it hurts someone's feelings? Then do I have to leave my opinion? Or am I allowed to delete it at that point? At what point should I keep or delete? &#129300;
> 
> Hate to say it but the book of mormon is a far cry from the truth of the bible. This would be why I reiterate faith in Jesus Christ as savior and the only true living God. I know and the rest of the world knows the book of mormon teaches he is just a man and yall have living prophets similar to a pope... sorry. That's a big no go. It is a go on the basis it's a cult however.
> 
> And these are my opinions? Or biblical fact? Should I delete them vanilla? Or praise Jesus for calling it how it is unafraid?


WOW just WOW. I'm not that religious but that is just over the top. Last I heard Jesus is the same Jesus for everybody who believes in him. I guess you are special. Some other may have another deity.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, that's beyond the pale, Oli. I'm agnostic but sleep with an annotated bible by my bed. I can't imagine remotely going where you just did. Especially in a moment of international crisis. That doesn't seem remotely Christ like.

*Thx for capturing the quote, Middlefork. Save that one for posterity before he deletes it.


----------



## Hunttilidrop

😳


----------



## BigT

olibooger said:


> https://news.yahoo.com/150-million-americans-could-coronavirus-us-projection-185632345.html
> 
> Meh, low end 700,000 people in america die. Thats not too bad. That's from the virus alone. Double the number due to civil unrest and we are looking at half the population.
> 
> Vanilla. This is a public forum. Deletion of opinionated posts are allowed as far as I can tell.
> Unless it hurts someone's feelings? Then do I have to leave my opinion? Or am I allowed to delete it at that point? At what point should I keep or delete? &#129300;
> 
> Hate to say it but the book of mormon is a far cry from the truth of the bible. This would be why I reiterate faith in Jesus Christ as savior and the only true living God. I know and the rest of the world knows the book of mormon teaches he is just a man and yall have living prophets similar to a pope... sorry. That's a big no go. It is a go on the basis it's a cult however.
> 
> And these are my opinions? Or biblical fact? Should I delete them vanilla? Or praise Jesus for calling it how it is unafraid?


Very.... Very uneducated... But whatever. Typical ignorance!


----------



## DallanC

How about we all drop the religious aspect of this thread before it gets locked. It is already treading very close to breaking the forums rules, if not being over the line thus far.


Its been a good and interesting discussion so far.


-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Dallan, there is really only one person treading anything close to forum rules. 

It’s the guy that thinks double 700,000 would be half the US population. 

Apparently there are only 3 million people in the United States? That explains basically every one of his other posts.


----------



## brisket

The Book of Mormon has various examples of conspiracies and secret societies known as secret combinations and sends a warning to us that those conspiracies are still happening in our day. Oli, you might want to give it a read, you might like it. It sounds like it could be right up your alley.


----------



## Vanilla

So last night I posted my frustrations of communities and groups waiting until it’s too late to take preventative actions. Today, I must write on the other side of coin for Utah. Our governor is taking early action that will slow spread. Community leaders are following suit. Church organizations are as well. 

I tip my hat to all involved. These actions will save lives. It won’t stop the spread or eliminate the virus, but they will save lives. Kudos, Governor Herbert, et al. I’m proud to be a member of this community, and I have no doubt that we will see an immense amount of good from our Utah neighbors.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, pretty grateful to live in Utah.


----------



## 2full

Living outside of Utah for a while really made me appreciate it. 
Made us REALLY grateful to be back .


----------



## Critter




----------



## backcountry

**** you, Johnnycake. 

I'm officially a civilized human, or soon will be.

Order in after UofU visit. I'm even going to have a **** ottoman in my bathroom. 

Doing my doody to stop the spread. Sorry, not sorry for the visual. It's all Johnnycakes fault.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> **** you, Johnnycake.
> 
> I'm officially a civilized human, or soon will be.
> 
> Order in after UofU visit. I'm even going to have a **** ottoman in my bathroom.
> 
> Doing my doody to stop the spread. Sorry, not sorry for the visual. It's all Johnnycakes fault.


Ahh yes. I was wondering when we'd get into the squatty potty/footstool facet of the discussion. Total game changer.


----------



## Dunkem

Thanks for getting back to topic. Now lets here more of this butt car washing thing.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Nothing unusual about China blaming us. It's a communist country in internal damage control mode. I caught a glimpse of some of their PSA's and commercials being used in another video, telling their people everything is fine, and they should go back to work. Unfortunately, I can't find the original videos to link directly, but the propaganda was pretty obvious from what i saw. China pointing fingers at us, shouldn't surprise anyone, they are a superpower on the rise, looking to over take us as the leading superpower, with global ambitions.

I just hope that after all is said and done, we stop offshoring manufacturing to China, and bring some, if not most of it, back here where it came from in the first place. China threatening to shut off the supply of needed medicines, (they control 90% of the market I think) should be an eye opener for all American's. That situation needs to be stopped, and resolved. We need to remove that dependency. How you like them apples? Our health, when sick, is ultimately dependent on the exports of a communist country.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> &#129322;&#129315;&#129322;&#129315;&#129322;&#129315;


I hope the booger's attempted use of emojis comes through for everyone the way they come through for me. Because when viewed as jumbled random characters across your screen, you think he's still just typing his thoughts. It fits perfectly!

1.5 million is half the US population...and that's not even the most asinine thing you've posted!


----------



## wyoming2utah

So, the Utah High School Activities Association (the governing body of Utah high school sports) decided to shut all extracurricular events down for at least two weeks starting on Monday.

Vanilla mentioned this idea earlier in this thread, but I just can't figure out the reasoning behind some of the rationale being used in these decisions--IF the threat of the Covid-19 is so bad, why wait until Monday? Why don't they shut things down immediately? Isn't the threat of contacting the virus just as bad this weekend when we have track meets and softball tournaments running as it would be next week? And, is the threat worse at getting the virus at a softball game where you have maybe 30 people in attendance worse than what it would be in school? What about a tennis match where there may only be a dozen or so in attendance? Girls' golf?

I keep hearing that we shouldn't be afraid and that panic shouldn't rule our decision making, yet it seems that fear is exactly what is ruling the decision making of all these different organizations. What a circus. My wife and I made the mistake of grocery shopping last night...and just finding a grocery cart was tough. What's next?


----------



## willfish4food

Two things. 

First, do Oli's ramblings remind anyone of Karl? I mean, there's a lot less Latin and not as much assuming people are a-holes, but the crazy and condescending tone is definitely there. I had to go back and read some of the threads where he used to go off on people for hunting elk with less than 200 grain bullets just for the entertainment value. 

Second and more on topic of this thread, I get the thought process of, if you've set a threshold for when you're going to shut down, and you know you're going to hit that threshold eventually, just shut down now. But honestly, I think the overall economic impact will be much more devastating than the overall health impact. Perhaps trying to stay open/keep events running as long as possible is a way to try to mitigate the economic impact. I read an article last night about a rodeo that shut down in Houston. The article pointed to how the shutdown will have very significant impacts on the vendors that depend on the sales from the rodeo for the rest of the year. 

Big corporations can weather the storm just fine. Young people far away from retirement will be fine. But this can and will be devastating for many wage workers, small businesses, and people close to retirement.


----------



## DallanC

Dunkem said:


> Thanks for getting back to topic. Now lets here more of this butt car washing thing.


I can work with that, here ya go:










A bit obscure, but someone will get it.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

I'll have to go back and read the Karl posts. I bought a cannon because he said I needed it for elk hunting but it's too heavy to get into the field. Had to donate it to the Smithsonian. 

The waiting on cancellation seems less than ideal but likely a way to buffer the shock. Doesn't seem to have helped much given what most of us saw yesterday but who knows.

This is going to definitely hurt wage earners without the security of PTO and those near retirement. A good time to be part of a strong community.


----------



## Critter

Vanilla said:


> I hope the booger's attempted use of emojis comes through for everyone the way they come through for me. Because when viewed as jumbled random characters across your screen, you think he's still just typing his thoughts. It fits perfectly!
> 
> 1.5 million is half the US population...and that's not even the most asinine thing you've posted!


It's hard to type out a response when you are sitting in a dark basement with a tinfoil hat on and using a flashlight for your only light


----------



## one4fishing

wyoming2utah said:


> So, the Utah High School Activities Association (the governing body of Utah high school sports) decided to shut all extracurricular events down for at least two weeks starting on Monday.
> 
> Vanilla mentioned this idea earlier in this thread, but I just can't figure out the reasoning behind some of the rationale being used in these decisions--IF the threat of the Covid-19 is so bad, why wait until Monday? Why don't they shut things down immediately? Isn't the threat of contacting the virus just as bad this weekend when we have track meets and softball tournaments running as it would be next week? And, is the threat worse at getting the virus at a softball game where you have maybe 30 people in attendance worse than what it would be in school? What about a tennis match where there may only be a dozen or so in attendance? Girls' golf?
> 
> I keep hearing that we shouldn't be afraid and that panic shouldn't rule our decision making, yet it seems that fear is exactly what is ruling the decision making of all these different organizations. What a circus. My wife and I made the mistake of grocery shopping last night...and just finding a grocery cart was tough. What's next?


I don't get the reason for waiting but I think the difference between school and a softball game is that they are two different groups. If the disease is running through a school in one part of the state we probably ought to not introduce it to another part of the state.


----------



## one4fishing

There are people on KSL selling their hoarded toilet paper now.


----------



## backcountry

An awkward truth that doesn't bode well for how this could inform another pandemic.


----------



## backcountry

one4fishing said:


> There are people on KSL selling their hoarded toilet paper now.


Johnnycake,

Can I start calling them savages already or is there a waiting period for junior members?


----------



## Critter

Dunkem said:


> Thanks for getting back to topic. Now lets here more of this butt car washing thing.


----------



## backcountry

Critter said:


> Dunkem said:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks for getting back to topic. Now lets here more of this butt car washing thing.
Click to expand...

I'm not joining that club. No way. No how.

Maybe my idealism about human ingenuity has been misplaced &#129315;


----------



## Catherder

Critter said:


>


Wouldn't that thing fling crap all over? Including back on yourself?

Plus that isn't the cool, refreshing jet of water cake boy talks about.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> An awkward truth that doesn't bode well for how this could inform another pandemic.


It is a valid point but the mark of true leadership is often *not* worrying what the tinfoil hat crowd thinks about your decisions.


----------



## Vanilla

The sad irony about those at retirement age getting hit hardest financially about this is that if we don’t take actions to protect that class of people from infection then many of them are not going to need their retirement anyway. I hope we keep them all around long enough to build back those retirement funds. 

And I am so willing to act like we as Utahns overreacted by shutting group gatherings down. I’m not worried about that in the least. Again, kudos for the LEADERS stepping up and saving lives. (Even if I agree the delay until Monday probably shouldn’t have happened.)


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> An awkward truth that doesn't bode well for how this could inform another pandemic.


Always better to err on the side of caution. One doesn't have to put on a tin foil hat to legitimately say that "we have no idea how this will pan out in the end".

That said, I'm still trying to figure out why people are hoarding TP. One reason is obviously the profiteers. They come out anytime anything happens hoping to make some easy money off it. I also suspect it's a big hole... err no pun intended... in peoples basement emergency stash. I'm sure plenty of us have food, ammo, and medical supplies tucked away, but I have to wonder, how many people thought about wiping their butts after eating their reconstituted meals from Wise foods or Augason farms?



Critter said:


>


The part of me that loves working with hand and power tools finds this HILARIOUS! That said, I wouldn't want it anywhere near my hindquarters. If a fella didn't already have a bad case of hemorrhoids, you'd certainly have some after using the rotowipe a few times!


----------



## Fowlmouth

I went in Tractor Supply this morning for a bag of dog food. Not much of a selection with empty pallets and shelves. I had to get a different blend. The gal at the register told me dog food and chicken feed is the new TP trend...….


----------



## DallanC

FML... I didnt think about that. We need chicken feed in the short term.


-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> FML... I didnt think about that. We need chicken feed in the short term.
> 
> -DallanC


You should be OK. In a pinch, chickens will eat almost anything. If all else fails, the 25lb sacks of rice flying off the Costco shelves will work.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

How many of you saw this rush coming before it happened? I know I did. I stocked up on a lot of stuff before the rush really set in. Either that, or I'm one of the jackwagons that started the rush if people saw what I was doing. Although........ I didn't buy TP, so you can't blame that one on me. I Already have a couple extra costco packs sitting in the basement, so I didn't need to buy more. Although now I wish i got one more pack for a .....crappy day.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

olibooger said:


> How about now? Getting worse.
> 1pm, an hour before markets close Trump is most likely going to shut America down.
> 
> 3 weeks ago yall were saying I was nutso for saying it but bow its undeniable.
> 
> Let's hope there is no civil unrest


Oh come on Oli, it was pretty obvious to anyone with any passing medical knowledge that this virus was NOT going to be contained. I said as much last month I think.

Still, it's not the end of the world.

On that note, Obligatory video link:


----------



## backcountry

Oli is the textbook example of confirmation bias. 

When the thread first started I was hopeful it would be contained enough to prevent a pandemic. My optimism was misplaced but most of saw this could unfold a while ago. Even with preparation I'm in a bit of shock with it all. Most of us haven't lived through an international crisis of this scale and caliber, especially one that requires such vigilance. 

Live and learn. My household is 99% good for a while without any real discomfort. I wish I had thought about a few small things but we'll get by and they should be available soon. If they aren't then they won't affect anything too critical.

Wild times. Hopefully Cedar City calms down and catches it's breathe soon. 

Biggest immediate impact will probably be that I don't find as much solitude ice fishing this Sunday.

*Some good news.... active case study shows "severe cases" down to 9%. Been dropping slowly the last 2 weeks.


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> You're right. It isnt the end of the world. Itll be a whole New World Order once it resets. But at least we can enjoy being a part of history!
> 
> &#128526;


Bingo! The last word/phrse on my Swamp Illuminati (TM) card was "New World Order".

What do I win? Please tell me it's 2 ply.


----------



## CPAjeff

I went to the grocery store this morning to get some donuts for my kids before they headed off to school - it’s a Friday tradition. Anyway, when it’s my turn, the checker asked, “No TP? Baby wipes? Hand sanitizer?” 

“No ma’am” was my reply. 

The incredulous look she gave me was frightening. In a snarky tone she asked what I was going to do when the entire U.S. shuts down. I responded with, “We’ll use a bidet.” A puzzled look spread across her face and she asked, “What’s a bidet?” 

I shot back the same incredulous look she gave me, got my donuts and went home. 

People these days!


----------



## Fowlmouth

Lone_Hunter said:


> How many of you saw this rush coming before it happened? I know I did. I stocked up on a lot of stuff before the rush really set in. Either that, or I'm one of the jackwagons that started the rush if people saw what I was doing. Although........ I didn't buy TP, so you can't blame that one on me. I Already have a couple extra costco packs sitting in the basement, so I didn't need to buy more. Although now I wish i got one more pack for a .....crappy day.


Yep, saw it coming. Started buying a few essential things 2 weeks ago. Got our corned beef and cabbage 3 days ago, so we're ready for St. Paddy's too.....


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Bingo! The last word/phrse on my Swamp Illuminati (TM) card was "New World Order".
> 
> What do I win? Please tell me it's 2 ply.


The fact that you are hoping to win 2-ply tells me you aren't ready yet to look down on the peasants and call them out as the savages they are.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Bingo! The last word/phrse on my Swamp Illuminati (TM) card was "New World Order".
> 
> What do I win? Please tell me it's 2 ply.


Actually, you win a Roto Wipe. Congrats.

I missed on winning because I had "Black Helicopter" in the middle and we didn't get that one yet.

Also, for the record, the prediction was for rioting in "2 weeks". (remember the over/under?) Today is 2 weeks. So unless we have it in the next 12 hours or so, Oli was wrong. In reality, that shouldn't surprise anyone.


----------



## CPAjeff

olibooger said:


> You're right. It isnt the end of the world. Itll be a whole New World Order once it resets. But at least we can enjoy being a part of history!
> 
> &#128526;


A whole new world? Hold the phone! C'mon oli - sing it for us!






#girldad


----------



## backcountry

johnnycake said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Bingo! The last word/phrse on my Swamp Illuminati (TM) card was "New World Order".
> 
> What do I win? Please tell me it's 2 ply.
> 
> 
> 
> The fact that you are hoping to win 2-ply tells me you aren't ready yet to look down on the peasants and call them out as the savages they are.
Click to expand...

I feel like I've missed so many opportunities to learn from your wisdom.

I will do better.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> Also, for the record, the prediction was for rioting in "2 weeks". (remember the over/under?) Today is 2 weeks. So unless we have it in the next 12 hours or so, Oli was wrong. In reality, that shouldn't surprise anyone.


Don't confuse him with facts now. Just let him come on and tell us he was correct.

Like this time next year we'll have vaccines that turn people into zombies. I'm sure he'll deflect from that prediction and still claim victory over something.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> I feel like I've missed so many opportunities to learn from your wisdom.
> 
> I will do better.


It's probably too late now. You'll be a zombie in no time


----------



## Vanilla

CPAjeff said:


> #girldad


It bugs me they let Kobe Bryant hijack that saying. Between the three boys in my family we have 9 daughters and 1 son. We've used that for years.

And this is the only New World Order I know:


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> How about now? Getting worse.
> 1pm, an hour before markets close Trump is most likely going to shut America down.


Did he shut the whole country down? I've been googling that and can't find it anywhere.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> olibooger said:
> 
> 
> 
> How about now? Getting worse.
> 1pm, an hour before markets close Trump is most likely going to shut America down.
> 
> 
> 
> Did he shut the whole country down? I've been googling that and can't find it anywhere.
Click to expand...

Yes, he ordered we all go into stasis for a much needed upgrade. Oli is probably worried about those in the resistance who removed their chip. I'm a good little sheeple and kept mine despite the peer pressure.

Have a good slumber folks. Let's hope we don't wake up in Westworld.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> Did he shut the whole country down? I've been googling that and can't find it anywhere.


Maybe he didn't have to because the Dow shot up 1985 points today.

"They" will probably have him do it on Monday.


----------



## 2full

I went into the store pretty late last night on the way home from work and bought some beer and some ribs to cook for dinner tonight. The checker said she hadn't seen anybody stocking up on beer yet. She thought it was pretty funny. I'm sure she had a looonnng day and was getting a little punchy. I had to smile. 
This whole deal reminds me of Y2K on steroids. 
I was running a grocery store back then. It was a crazy week. This has been worse I think. 

Was a good reminder why I don't miss working in the grocery bizz at ALL.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Well, unless i come down with the sniffles, life goes on! Ii'm not letting COVID19 worries get in the way of my turkey scouting! Just got to pack some food and water, and i'll be hitting the road ODark 30 sunday morning and coming back monday evening. Social distancing? As my forum name implies, I come by it naturally. The Corona virus just gives me an excuse. :mrgreen:


----------



## Critter




----------



## Vanilla

Schools closed for two weeks. I can telecommute. Cheap flights to Hawaii. 

Hmmmmm, I wonder if I can do my job from the beach?


----------



## 3arabians

Critter said:


>


All of the 30 packs of Coors Light please. Thanks for the offer!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Clarq

I made the mistake of going to Walmart today after work. Yikes... hoarders out in force.

Got everything I wanted except black beans and paper towels (no TP on the shelves, but I don't need it). Funny enough, there were still a bunch of cloth towels left. Maybe I'll never need paper towels again.


----------



## backcountry

Thought about cheap beer but went a different direction. I think a respiratory virus says "Irish Whiskey" to me. And I'll pour one out for all the fallen St Patrick's Day parades being cancelled.


----------



## 3arabians

All public schools just got canceled!! Queue up Olibooger!! 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## 3arabians

backcountry said:


> Thought about cheap beer but went a different direction. I think a respiratory virus says "Irish Whiskey" to me. And I'll pour one out for all the fallen St Patrick's Day parades being cancelled.


I continue to like you more and more!!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## middlefork

3arabians said:


> All public schools just got canceled!! Queue up Olibooger!!
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


With his five kids I'm sure that is enough to drive anyone a little crazy.

It is too bad this is going to affect so many people who may never get the virus. It will be interesting for sure. There are a lot of unintended consequences.


----------



## middlefork

I did see the liquor stores were staying open. Apparently the state is not worried about us sinners.

Good choice backcountry! Tis the season!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

3arabians said:


> All public schools just got canceled!! Queue up Olibooger!!
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


That, just changed my weekend plans. Bah! -O,-


----------



## Vanilla

Oh they just want the revenue!


----------



## 2full

By the way.......
The ribs I bought last night and cooked for dinner were marvelous. 
The beer wasn't bad either.


----------



## Hunttilidrop

If you guys need paper towels hit up Lowe’s They got plenty. Just sayin.


----------



## Catherder

This came across my professional news feed yesterday.

https://www.klfy.com/health/coronav...e-producing-coronavirus-vaccines-for-testing/

As I said before, I think we will have a working vaccine in several months. It would be ironic but fitting if a bunch of veterinarians develop it. We already have a wealth of experience dealing with coronaviruses, so our researchers may be a bit ahead of the curve. :first:


----------



## DallanC

Catherder said:


> This came across my professional news feed yesterday.
> 
> https://www.klfy.com/health/coronav...e-producing-coronavirus-vaccines-for-testing/
> 
> As I said before, I think we will have a working vaccine in several months. It would be ironic but fitting if a bunch of veterinarians develop it. We already have a wealth of experience dealing with coronaviruses, so our researchers may be a bit ahead of the curve. :first:


You will want to take 3.5 minutes and watch this, making a vaccine is super easy... testing it, years:






-DallanC


----------



## Critter




----------



## Catherder

Critter said:


>


That still isn't as bad as the Roto Wipe.


----------



## Vanilla

Dallan, I watched the whole interview the other day with the guy on Rogan’s show. Was very interesting. I learned a lot.


----------



## Critter

Catherder said:


> That still isn't as bad as the Roto Wipe.


I don't know. The Roto Wipe only hurts for a little while, fiberglass is something that keeps on giving, and giving, and giving. As anyone who has worked around it will tell you.


----------



## DallanC

BEST ADVICE EVER FROM MY FAVORITE YOUTUBER!!! I love old UncleBumbleF##k, most entertaining channel there is. Anywho, here's yet another gem






"S##t Tickets", LMAO :mrgreen:

-DallanC


----------



## RandomElk16

Grabbed a few of the 100 pack shop towels on clearance at Sam's the other day for less than $5 a pack.

If it comes to it, that purchase will be even better than I imagined.


BUT, I don't think people have considered what the state of the country will be if you are on your 1000th roll of TP. That's some Zombieland stuff. It would likely mean water is shutoff (no one to work utilities), sewage backed up, power outage, yadayada.



And us gun lovin nutcases will get TP if we need it lol.


----------



## shaner

I really like Rogans suggestion of testing vaccines on bad people, such as rapists.
A side benefit would be once word got out, it would lower the number of crimes.
A criminal doesn’t really mind doing time in a heated cell and getting three good meals a day, but....
the threat of being a gunia(sp?) pig with un-tested medicine and making a set of testicles grow out of their forehead might curb some undesirable acts.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Well, my wife is officially worried, at least I think so. Last night she asked me, "if the crap hit's the fan, how much ammo do we have?"

I said, "Uhhh, I dunno..". It's been so long since I even looked at that stuff, I honestly wasn't sure how much we had. Opened up what we have, only to find I had neatly inventoried, and packaged each ammo can with slip of paper underneath the lid with an exact ammo count. A few cans were in stripper clips ready to go. So then I said, "Hey honey, come here and marvel at your husbands handywork! Aren't you glad you married an ex military man?"

At that point I tell her, "if the crap does hit the fan, I don't expect to see armed gangs coming down from salt lake roaming the neighborhood, most likely it will be a home invasion scenario." 

Then she asks, "ok, so how much shotgun ammo we have?", at that point I tell her, "Screw the shotgun, i'm loading an AR and umpteen magazines if it comes to that, home invaders aren't going to come alone". 

Ohh.. the scenario's that come up in conversations..... But yeah, when my wife is asking these kinds of questions, she's worried. :roll: Truth be told, I didn't sleep well myself last night, i find myself worried about a ton of things all at once, and not just COVID19.


----------



## brisket

olibooger said:


> How long do you guys think it will be before businesses and municipal utilities fall in line with the schools, if at all?


Most people with office jobs that I know are working remote for the next couple of weeks. It's already begun, but it's difficult to do for jobs that require a person to be on site.


----------



## Critter

*Someone made a life changing decision here*


----------



## middlefork

Every business needs to evaluate what is their appropriate response to Covid-19.

Most work rules are in place for a purpose. If they need to change then applying pressure to those who make the rules is appropriate. I don't know what you expect your state representative to do about private businesses.

As things progress maybe more drastic measures need to be implemented. But for now at least any reaction will be based on demand. As long as people are demanding a product there will be pressure to meet that demand.

Many people are comparing this time to the entry of the US into WWII. It is not hard to envision that some measures taken then may have to be initiated again.

Only you can determine what your response will be. And as always there will be things that happen based on that response.


----------



## Catherder

olibooger said:


> How long do you guys think it will be before businesses and municipal utilities fall in line with the schools, if at all?


If the hardest hit areas in both China and Italy are an example, the utilities will remain in normal function. Also, food distribution and critical businesses will remain operational. Other businesses will vary based on severity of the outbreak and government guidance or mandate.

Our operation is not a "work from home" entity, and the thing that could shut us down would be if a large portion of the staff had to self quarantine due to exposure.


----------



## Critter

I read today where some idiots in Tennessee went and purchased all the hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes that they could where ever they could buy them. They filled their garages and a storage unit with them and then started to sell it on Amazon at a highly inflated price. 

Well, Amazon shut them down and I am sure that the local authorities will be looking at them for price gouging. 

As for working or not working, that is going to be a personal choice. Right now most states do not have laws in place saying that you can walk off of your job because someone comes in with the sniffles.


----------



## backcountry

I don't see mass chaos beyond panic buying. We have power, water and food. 

The state can't force your employer to provide sick leave under existing law as I understand it. Employers have immense flexibility in how they manage their money and human resource. 

WWII seems an apt comparison if it means how we all are being challenged to think about community needs. It'll definitely squeeze a lot of lower middle class or poorer households who live paycheck to paycheck. 

Modeling and science shows this will likely be with us until the end of the year if not April 2021. Not that we have to close everything that long as right now is just a strategy to stall. Once 60-70% of the population has is it the spread plummets because of how we develop natural immunity. Goal is just prevent as many of the vulnerable from getting it the next key few weeks. The sooner you flatten the curve the more of those people survive. That is at least the goal. 

I think we should prepare for this to become a seasonal disease. But by then we'll have ways to combat it and hopefully a vaccine. Even if we somehow never develop a vaccine, novel viruses like this tend to be worst their first go round. We'll slowly develop herd immunity to naturally "flatten the curve".


----------



## Critter

Just remember all the other world ending strains of the flu over the years. 

They said the swine flu would kill all of us along with avian or bird flu. Somehow we all managed to survive.


----------



## Critter

olibooger said:


> My response to a congressman/woman is in line with what the commander n chief said twice earlier this week which is American workers will not be punished for missing work due to the coronavirus. I understand it is a process to get through the house but I mean, if Trump is in line with it I was hoping my job would be secure.
> My co worker was really sick. It was bad. This is a global pandemic and until people realize they should be home if they are sick, it will keep spreading and if employers punish employees for missing work, it will keep spreading. Congress needs to protect Americqn workers.
> 
> People price gouging is sad and ridiculous. I've always read stories about these types of scenarios but seeing it first hand is really setting all of it in.
> 
> Anyone else think the "soft school suspension" is going to be extended? I know I do. Thankfully we home school already.


If your coworker was really sick, why did he come into work?

This is one of the problems that we have with any sickness. Back when I carpooled with two others that had kids in school I always came down with something that was transmitted from the kids to the parents and then to me.

People just don't think.


----------



## johnnycake

olibooger said:


> How long do you guys think it will be before businesses and municipal utilities fall in line with the schools, if at all?


Most of my clients are utility companies, and we've been a bit busy the past few weeks in this issue. That being said, utility operations would be pretty much the very last thing to get shut down. There are an absurd amount of contingency plans built in to deal with all sorts of natural disasters in the utility world, regardless of whether the utility is municipal, cooperative, or investor owned. In other words, it ain't gonna happen.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> Then she asks, "ok, so how much shotgun ammo we have?", at that point I tell her, "Screw the shotgun, i'm loading an AR and umpteen magazines if it comes to that, home invaders aren't going to come alone".


12GA semi-auto loaded with 4Buckshot > just about any other type of gun for home invasion defense. IMO of course.

AR15 is .223 diameter, #4Buckshot is .240 diameter. There are 24 per shotshell so you can fire almost as much lead per trigger pull as doing a 30 round mag dump from a AR.

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

DallanC said:


> 12GA semi-auto loaded with 4Buckshot > just about any other type of gun for home invasion defense. IMO of course.
> 
> AR15 is .223 diameter, #4Buckshot is .240 diameter. There are 24 per shotshell so you can fire almost as much lead per trigger pull as doing a 30 round mag dump from a AR.
> 
> -DallanC


However that buckshot is more concentrated.

However I think that a shotgun would scare more people since they figure that it is like a old time blunderbuss what throws shot all over the place.

As for stockpiling ammo, I have told the local fire department to stay away from the center north wall of my home if it should ever happen to catch on fire.


----------



## middlefork

Critter said:


> If your coworker was really sick, why did he come into work?
> 
> This is one of the problems that we have with any sickness. Back when I carpooled with two others that had kids in school I always came down with something that was transmitted from the kids to the parents and then to me.
> 
> People just don't think.


I believe he mentioned his company's work rules required the employee to be there.

But to be honest there is a difference between "being sick" and testing positive for Covid-19. Currently only through testing can the correct diagnosis be made. But there seems to be a lot of people self-diagnosing who know all about it because they read about it on the internet.


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> My response to a congressman/woman is in line with what the commander n chief said twice earlier this week which is American workers will not be punished for missing work due to the coronavirus. I understand it is a process to get through the house but I mean, if Trump is in line with it I was hoping my job would be secure.
> My co worker was really sick. It was bad. This is a global pandemic and until people realize they should be home if they are sick, it will keep spreading and if employers punish employees for missing work, it will keep spreading. Congress needs to protect Americqn workers.
> 
> People price gouging is sad and ridiculous. I've always read stories about these types of scenarios but seeing it first hand is really setting all of it in.
> 
> Anyone else think the "soft school suspension" is going to be extended? I know I do. Thankfully we home school already.


Bill with sick leave as component made it through House with massive bipartisan support. It's just waiting for the Senate and McConnell has been verbally antagonistic. But that just provides emergency funds.

Even with a sick leave component workers in Utah have little recourse as we are an "at will" state. Employers can release employees for very diverse reasons as long as it's not discrimination of protected classes. Which means an employer can require employees to work or terminate them. I'm not aware of any bill that changes that no matter what the POTUS has loosely claimed.

I would hope employers are at least trying to thoughtfully navigate this issue for employees. Many are in a double bind but they'll ultimately still need skilled labor to continue work and stay in business. I don't envy small businesses that rely heavily on person to person transactions, it's going to be brutal.


----------



## Critter

middlefork said:


> I believe he mentioned his company's work rules required the employee to be there.


That would be one strange company. In my whole working carrier and in the beginning I worked for a lot of different companies none of them required me to come in when I was sick. All they asked was for me to call in, and a couple required a doctors excuse for me not to show up


----------



## middlefork

The only reason I don't have a shell in the camber of my pump shotgun is the sound of racking one in is almost as good as a barking dog.

Now the backup won't make a sound until the bang goes off.


----------



## middlefork

I am aware of a several companies who have restrictions on how often an employee calls in sick. And that is ones that have sick leave.


----------



## DallanC

Critter said:


> However that buckshot is more concentrated.


How on earth is 1 expended shotshell more concentrated than 1 expended rifle cartridge? Are you saying that in terms of the amount of lead per square inch? or actual group sizes?

I'm curious what you mean

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> I am aware of a several companies who have restrictions on how often an employee calls in sick. And that is ones that have sick leave.


This.

Most companies I've worked in lack PTO and heavily penalize employees for no-show or put burden of substitute on them. It's counterproductive but common. Few companies I've worked for have functioning HR departments that think about these issues proactively. I left management for similar reasons as this as I could no longer push my employees without protections and policy that offset the risks they experienced.

Our economy is heavily reliant on the service industry and that sector often struggles to fill shifts consistently without a pandemic. This is going to stress those systems. If I had to guess I would wager almost 50% (maybe more) of our economy is driven by employees with almost no sick leave protection.


----------



## Vanilla

First confirmed case of community spread in Utah, and this is the statement:

"The patient is an employee at the Spur Bar and Grill, and did report to work while he was symptomatic.” 

He reported to work while symptomatic. That was generous of him! In the service industry, no less. 

As I said many pages ago, people are a way bigger problem than the virus itself. We just can’t seem to get out of our own way.


----------



## Fowlmouth

Vanilla said:


> As I said many pages ago, people are a way bigger problem than the virus itself. We just can't seem to get out of our own way.


The grocery stores are a good example of this too. I guess these stores are exempt from the "no more than 100 people gathering" group. I think some people are really enjoying this whole thing. Buy your stuff and stay home! Stop going to the store every day to see how many more rolls of TP you can get. F'n idiots!


----------



## backcountry

All the more reason to skip public spaces. It's going to continue to spread so it takes those willing to sacrifice to be the speed bump. Similar to seasonal flu in this sense: those of us who get vaccine increase herd immunity to slow spread even though other people choose to risk it. 

We've officially gone to quarantine with my MIL. No visitors is going to suck for her, and dementia requires us to explain it to her again every 4-6 hours. 😔

We are in a tough situation as we get dry cough starting in Feb through most of spring due to seasonal gunk. Even waiting for fever and then using crappy dust masks (yeah for Harbor Freight bulk pack I bought 2 years ago) will deplete our reserves fast. Even if we are lucky to avoid it until autumn we then face a situation in which her diaphragm is even weaker. Pretty sad/grim situation. 

Luckily we are able to keep the mood upbeat for her and decompress at night as a couple. One of the only benefits of FTD is she forgets stressors quickly which is handy for the few times we actually need to explain our current reality.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Bill with sick leave as component made it through House with massive bipartisan support. It's just waiting for the Senate and McConnell has been verbally antagonistic. But that just provides emergency funds.
> 
> Even with a sick leave component workers in Utah have little recourse as we are an "at will" state. Employers can release employees for very diverse reasons as long as it's not discrimination of protected classes. Which means an employer can require employees to work or terminate them. I'm not aware of any bill that changes that no matter what the POTUS has loosely claimed.
> 
> I would hope employers are at least trying to thoughtfully navigate this issue for employees. Many are in a double bind but they'll ultimately still need skilled labor to continue work and stay in business. I don't envy small businesses that rely heavily on person to person transactions, it's going to be brutal.


With respect to the various bills going through, the small business assistance bill put forth by the "R"s as well as the employee leave bill advanced by the "D"s have great merit at this time and should be passed with bipartisan support.

I would hope that the country can avoid the partisan gamesmanship that accompanies almost all of our other governance at this time. My observation is that people are concerned enough that if someone like McConnell (or Pelosi) play games with this issue that there would be electoral he*& to pay. I sure hope I'm right on this one.


----------



## backcountry

I'm hopeful for bipartisanship. Seems like with Trump's vocal support it can pass. Our country needs bold action right now and I'll praise whoever provides without any concern about party/ideology. We have a chance to unite as a country in a way we haven't in ages.


----------



## Critter

DallanC said:


> How on earth is 1 expended shotshell more concentrated than 1 expended rifle cartridge? Are you saying that in terms of the amount of lead per square inch? or actual group sizes?
> 
> I'm curious what you mean
> 
> -DallanC


It's just that with buckshot out of a short barreled shotgun at a normal range say inside of a home or just outside is not going to be very wide. Granted it will put just as big of a hole into someone as a .223 along with not just one hole but multiple holes.

The one thing about a shotgun is that most people that don't know too much about them think that one shot from one can take out a whole crowd where in reality it is just going to put multiple holes into one or perhaps two people without having the real need to actually take aim at them.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> 12GA semi-auto loaded with 4Buckshot > just about any other type of gun for home invasion defense. IMO of course.
> 
> AR15 is .223 diameter, #4Buckshot is .240 diameter. There are 24 per shotshell so you can fire almost as much lead per trigger pull as doing a 30 round mag dump from a AR.
> 
> -DallanC





Critter said:


> However that buckshot is more concentrated.
> 
> However I think that a shotgun would scare more people since they figure that it is like a old time blunderbuss what throws shot all over the place.
> 
> As for stockpiling ammo, I have told the local fire department to stay away from the center north wall of my home if it should ever happen to catch on fire.





DallanC said:


> How on earth is 1 expended shotshell more concentrated than 1 expended rifle cartridge? Are you saying that in terms of the amount of lead per square inch? or actual group sizes?
> 
> I'm curious what you mean
> 
> -DallanC


The merits of which is the best home defense firearm has been done to death. Shotguns at home defense range, are not going to be throwing a wall of lead.

Just my opinion:
Shotgun: 
pros: 
- you hit, their going down, period.
- Less wall penetration then a rifle.

Cons:
- not good for wife. Most women don't handle the recoil of a 12 gauge high brass load very well.
- slow to reload magazine and limited capacity. At 7 yards, a miss is just the same as a miss with a rifle, you won't connect with either one if you miss.

AR-15:
Pros:
- Fast followup shots
- Fast reloading of box magazines
- 29 rounds instead of 7 or 8 rounds
- Wife can shoot it easily

Cons: 
- over penetration through walls. Accidentally having a stray round end up in the neighbors house is a real concern.
- May need 2 or 3 rounds center of mass to stop the threat. That said, rifle wounds in general have a much higher lethality rate then handguns. Did you know that over 70% of gunshot wounds that are seen by trauma centers are from handguns? That is why they have such a high success rate in treating people.

Now, considering that if you were to have your home invaded, odds are it's not going to be some lone burger. It will probably be 3 to 4 people, with intent. That's my guess, and that's why i'd pick a rifle over a shotgun if the crap starting hitting the fan.


----------



## olibooger

backcountry said:


> I'm hopeful for bipartisanship. Seems like with Trump's vocal support it can pass. Our country needs bold action right now and I'll praise whoever provides without any concern about party/ideology. We have a chance to unite as a country in a way we haven't in ages.


Absolutely


----------



## Catherder

This thread is now 1/5th of the way to catching up with "when is it going to start?".

I hope it doesn't give it a run for the money.


----------



## Critter

Catherder said:


> This thread is now 1/5th of the way to catching up with "when is it going to start?".
> 
> I hope it doesn't give it a run for the money.


Yes, but the When Is It Going To Start is going to get blown up here in a month or so and run for quite a few pages before it starts to slow down again.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> This thread is now 1/5th of the way to catching up with "when is it going to start?".
> 
> I hope it doesn't give it a run for the money.


No chance. Right about the time a Coronavirus will be settling down will be when Utah draws are getting very close. Have faith. It ain't happening!


----------



## olibooger

johnnycake said:


> olibooger said:
> 
> 
> 
> How long do you guys think it will be before businesses and municipal utilities fall in line with the schools, if at all?
> 
> 
> 
> Most of my clients are utility companies, and we've been a bit busy the past few weeks in this issue. That being said, utility operations would be pretty much the very last thing to get shut down. There are an absurd amount of contingency plans built in to deal with all sorts of natural disasters in the utility world, regardless of whether the utility is municipal, cooperative, or investor owned. In other words, it ain't gonna happen.
Click to expand...

This is reassuring.


----------



## backcountry

The NYTimes ran an article about the side market for hand sanitizers, etc. They interviewed a few people that were shockingly honest about their methods. Will be interesting to see how price gouging laws are enforced and when they aren't considered applicable. One guy said:

"I honestly feel like it's a public service," he added. "I'm being paid for my public service."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html


----------



## brisket

For home defense, I’d take a tactical shotgun loaded with buckshot any day over an AR.


----------



## Catherder

brisket said:


> For home defense, I'd take a tactical shotgun loaded with buckshot any day over an AR.


Looking at this from another perspective, wouldn't buckshot be more likely to damage the roll of toilet paper or the bottle of hand sanitizer the thief is trying to carry off than the AR round?

(sorry, long day at work)


----------



## brisket

Catherder said:


> brisket said:
> 
> 
> 
> For home defense, I'd take a tactical shotgun loaded with buckshot any day over an AR.
> 
> 
> 
> Looking at this from another perspective, wouldn't buckshot be more likely to damage the roll of toilet paper or the bottle of hand sanitizer the thief is trying to carry off than the AR round?
> 
> (sorry, long day at work)
Click to expand...

Ha! Great point. An AR might have a better chance of missing my bidet toilet seat if a thief is carrying it off too. Maybe I should rethink my post-COVID-19 home defense strategy.


----------



## JerryH

This virus is really going to put a hurt on the stripper and prostitution industry.


----------



## DallanC

Starting to think toward spring break and a camping trip to the dunes. I took my empty propane bottles off the trailer and grabbed 6-7 gas cans and hit costco to get fuel (my trailer has a fuel station that holds 40gal of gas, easier atm to fill it from cans than hook up and drag it to a station). We were filling them up and got some crazy looks from folk who thought we were panic buying gas I guess? Werid... what is stupid is I got less gas than a pickup truck with a large tank. 

Still got crusty looks though... LOL. Quite a few people getting propane filled up, spring break depending on schools is next week. Not everyone getting supplies is a prepper, for some of us its the edge of the spring fun season.


-DallanC


----------



## DallanC

olibooger said:


> The issue here is this week in the United States we tested less than 100 people and local media isnt telling anyone where the confirmed cases (besides large counties and who knows exactly where. Down my street, at my store or?) are. All one can do is assume the worst and contain any illnesses present.


Do you even hear the crazy stuff you are posting? Less than 100 tested as of last week? My hell, testing is getting so common we've had drive through testing here in the US for over a week, with alot more being set up. I've yet to see a statistic but I wouldnt be surprised if the number was north of 100,000 tested and probably be near 500,000 by next week as testing facilities ramp up.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> olibooger said:
> 
> 
> 
> The issue here is this week in the United States we tested less than 100 people and local media isnt telling anyone where the confirmed cases (besides large counties and who knows exactly where. Down my street, at my store or?) are. All one can do is assume the worst and contain any illnesses present.
> 
> 
> 
> Do you even hear the crazy stuff you are posting? Less than 100 tested as of last week? My hell, testing is getting so common we've had drive through testing here in the US for over a week, with alot more being set up. I've yet to see a statistic but I wouldnt be surprised if the number was north of 100,000 tested and probably be near 500,000 by next week as testing facilities ramp up.
> 
> -DallanC
Click to expand...

Oli is way off on a hundred but the testing has been extremely hampered and disappointing stateside. We've only tested 20,795 people according to data updated at 4 pm ET today. It's a ridiculously low number for a nation like us.

Given the limitations of testing and current status I would be absolutely shocked if we reached 500k tests by the end of next week (ending the 22nd). At the current rate we'll be lucky to get over 200k by then.

I know a GP with tests. They are tightly rationed for triaged cases that meet the criteria I posted earlier in the week. Sadly this means that the number of mild cases in the US, not meeting criteria, is likely well over 500k on a very conservative estimate. Ohio only has a few confirmed community spread cases and the CDC modeling on that means they alone could have over 100k cases just in that state.

They will be studying how poorly the US was equipped for testing and containment in epidemiology courses for years to come. Taiwan and Singapore will be held up as great examples and even South Korea has done better at testing this us.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...GdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#


----------



## Stickboy2

Vanilla said:


> First confirmed case of community spread in Utah, and this is the statement:
> 
> "The patient is an employee at the Spur Bar and Grill, and did report to work while he was symptomatic."
> 
> He reported to work while symptomatic. That was generous of him! In the service industry, no less.
> 
> As I said many pages ago, people are a way bigger problem than the virus itself. We just can't seem to get out of our own way.


Seems you guys are somewhere from a week or two behind us. First community spread case for us confirmed on the 28th. Two weeks ago I wouldn't have anticipated working from home for a week already...along with kids school closed for the next month. Levity has appeared.

We got what we need and we are not taking any trips to stores or otherwise. Going on plenty of walks and getting sun and exercise, just keeping our distance.

Kid in my sons class parent is a nurse and tested positive, the son is also expected to test positive. He was pulled out of class last Monday. Looks like the median incu period is just under six days per Johns Hopkins. No one here symptomatic yet.

Four days ago our county health suggested if you come in contact with someone tested positive to not feel overburdened to quarantine till you show symptoms. For some reason that doesn't seem right. I guess it's possible it's an indication of mitigation vs containment.

I Know a bit about the utility industry and add they are more vigilant now then ever to maintain customer reliability.

Turkey season starts in two weeks, needless to say I'll be ready to get in the woods!


----------



## olibooger

Eh 77 isnt too far off

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.y...testing-slow-around-the-nation-153646616.html

That was thursday when I said that. but you guys are right and i am wrong.

&#128526;


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Eh 77 isnt too far off
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.y...testing-slow-around-the-nation-153646616.html
> 
> That was thursday when I said that. but you guys are right and i am wrong.
> 
> &#128526;


Interesting thing about this is 58 people in the Jazz traveling party were tested just the night before this article was written. For one incident. Maybe the CDC only tested 77 people, but a lot more than 77 were tested overall.


----------



## olibooger

That's cool. The information I referred to and had at the time reflected 77 reported tests. 

How do you know those people were tested? Maybe they said they were tested or maybe they were tested and didnt report it. Maybe they all lie. Maybe the article says 77, you guys think I'm nuts but in reality I backed it up off of as reliable info as you have? 


Hmmm what a predicament

Maybe we should refer to a fact checking website.

Lmao.


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> Eh 77 isnt too far off
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.y...testing-slow-around-the-nation-153646616.html
> 
> That was thursday when I said that. but you guys are right and i am wrong.
> 
> &#128526;


You are misreading or cherry picking the information. The CDC is only one of many organizations testing. A think it was 10 days ago (??) that the federal government opened up testing to states and other 3rd parties.

I linked the relevant state information and we are testing more than 100 people a day nation wide. We aren't testing enough but it's much higher than your claim.

You definitely haven't backed up your claims as well as most here. You also seem to miss the full context of the article you just linked.

Your doomsday nuttery is losing entertainment value.


----------



## olibooger

Honestly, I think the CDC is full of crooks paid off by big pharma and they are lagging on tests until they make a deal. I mean it's only logical they use a catastrophe like this for their own profit. People are evil for money.

All is well


----------



## olibooger

Dont be a clown backcountry, the circus left town long ago.

How is that what "I" claim? Did I write the article?
You're a genius. Truly, a bright lightbulb🤣🤣🤣

I must not be main stream enough for you?

My mind hasn't been brain washed into what the world wants me to believe. I'm not a slave to the system guy.


----------



## backcountry

One more post and then done feeding the troll. Your post stated:

"The issue here is this week in the United States we tested less than 100 people"

The article you linked to stated: 

"That means that, as of Wednesday morning, the CDC had tested only 77 people for the coronavirus since Sunday."

Your claim doesn't match that of the article you used. You are posting data that was 72 hours old and took it out of context. The article claim is limited to just CDC testing; the article you linked highlights how many other agencies are testing.

And I am very happy knowing HIPA laws protect patient information from being released to the nuttery of conspiracy theorist like you..


----------



## johnnycake

olibooger said:


> Dont be a clown backcountry, the circus left town long ago.
> 
> How is that what "I" claim? Did I write the article?
> You're a genius. Truly, a bright lightbulb&#129315;&#129315;&#129315;
> 
> I must not be main stream enough for you?
> 
> My mind hasn't been brain washed into what the world wants me to believe. I'm not a slave to the system guy.


If you reread the article you posted it clearly states that the CDC only tested 77 but that various states were testing hundreds each.

While it is appalling how testing has been hampered in the US, it is not anywhere near what you were claiming. You either need to start or stop taking whatever pills you aren't or are taking.


----------



## Vanilla

You like to read, do a google search. And if that's too hard, here's a start for you.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports...-on-the-utah-jazz-organization-164110976.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ftw.us...tah-jazz-rudy-gobert-nba-season-postponed/amp


----------



## Vanilla

I have literally never seen a person that claims to have so much information about a topic exhibit clearly and regularly just how little he understands it. 

And I’ve been on Internet forums for the better part of 20 years!


----------



## PBH

dallanC said:


> Starting to think toward spring break and a camping trip to the dunes. I took my empty propane bottles off the trailer and grabbed 6-7 gas cans and hit costco to get fuel (my trailer has a fuel station that holds 40gal of gas, easier atm to fill it from cans than hook up and drag it to a station). We were filling them up and got some crazy looks from folk who thought we were panic buying gas I guess? Werid... what is stupid is I got less gas than a pickup truck with a large tank.
> 
> Still got crusty looks though... LOL. Quite a few people getting propane filled up, spring break depending on schools is next week. Not everyone getting supplies is a prepper, for some of us its the edge of the spring fun season.
> 
> -DallanC


You should have seen the looks I got when I took my boat fully loaded with cases of TP and water to the gas station to fill up!

UHSAA has cancelled all sporting events for the next two weeks. Bye softball.
School's are closed.

I can't think of a better place to be headed right now than Lake Powell!

However -- I work for a company that provides critical components to our nation's defense. We simply cannot shut down. So we are taking precautions. If you are sick, stay home. No department meetings. Operators get their daily work instructions from supervisor the day before, and head straight to work area - no gathering prior to shift start. Breaks are staggered. I'm sure we'll make more decisions this coming week (ie: those who can, will work from home). If our production crews get sick, not only would our business suffer, but our nation's defense would be left without a critical component.

My wife is in a bit more difficult position. She's a Special Education educator. School's are shut down - however, those students with IEP's, by law, still have to have those IEP's fulfilled. Which means she still has to work one-on-one with students to fill the hourly requirements for their IEP's. She can refuse them if they show any illness - but she still will be seeing those students.

No two week vacation for us. But the boat is still ready to go.

#GSENM4Ever
#WickedTunaBingeWatch


----------



## backcountry

Coronavirus definitely has provided some great memes.


----------



## backcountry

I guess this one is only fitting


----------



## CPAjeff

olibooger said:


> the circus left town long ago.


This totally makes sense - you must be lonely since the rest of your cohorts left town ...


----------



## APD

well, most of the ski resorts are closing now too.


----------



## middlefork

APD said:


> well, most of the ski resorts are closing now too.


Only make sense that Vail Resorts / Park City is closing just based on the local infection rate.
I'm sure others will follow. Any crowd based business will have to make decisions.


----------



## Jedidiah

Vanilla said:


> I have literally never seen a person that claims to have so much information about a topic exhibit clearly and regularly just how little he understands it.
> 
> And I've been on Internet forums for the better part of 20 years!


Oh come on, you say that to all the guys.


----------



## johnnycake

Jedidiah said:


> Oh come on, you say that to all the guys.


Interesting choice of wagon there.


----------



## Jedidiah

It was just a joke, don't include me in this clown car of a discussion you've got going above.


----------



## APD

middlefork said:


> Only make sense that Vail Resorts / Park City is closing just based on the local infection rate.
> I'm sure others will follow. Any crowd based business will have to make decisions.


vail has around 37 resorts, alterra has 15, powder corp, several california resorts and alta. all are shutting down for at least a week and re-evaluating. likely all will close since their end of season is coming soon anyway.


----------



## Vanilla

Jedidiah said:


> It was just a joke, don't include me in this clown car of a discussion you've got going above.


Seems like you already included yourself. And would be a fantastic running mate to the booger. You two ought to ride this one out together.


----------



## Jedidiah

Vanilla said:


> Seems like you already included yourself. And would be a fantastic running mate to the booger. You two ought to ride this one out together.


Sorry, can't...never liked him since he started idolizing sheepassassin.


----------



## Critter

APD said:


> vail has around 37 resorts, alterra has 15, powder corp, several california resorts and alta. all are shutting down for at least a week and re-evaluating. likely all will close since their end of season is coming soon anyway.


Vail posted that they will close their resorts until March 22, but all things are subject to change.


----------



## backcountry

Rutroh, the Tushy is full. This is your fault, Johnnycake. I hope you are happy and raking in the commission checks.


----------



## olibooger

Welp, I'll avoid this thread. 


Obviously not welcomed. 

I miss interpret one article in which I posted a couple sentences about and get ridiculed over it. I'm not going to do nothing, and posted something I probably shouldn't have in defense. I would hope all who read the article could see how it could have been miss interpreted. Especially when the headline reads 77 tested. I'm not perfect. 

But I'm not stupid either and its obvious you gentlemen have your click. My point of view isnt welcome here. 

And that is okay with me. I really could care less. I would rather not be naive about reality pretending everything is okay. 

And dont even try to say you guys never said that. A few weeks ago I was ridiculed for calling it how it is and now today reality is very similar to what I said a few weeks ago when you guys were ridiculing me for over reacting. Interesting because the shelves at the stores look pretty empty to me, for a reason. And wall street has lost about 25% also. (Dont quote me on that but I know its right around there. 30% loss yesterday) 

And if you guys pay attention, the Chinese are blaming us for bringing it to them, and blaming them for the virus. It's a false flag. And we are blaming the Russians. Another false flag.

Good luck.

Have fun boys. 👍🙋‍♂️


----------



## olibooger

To clarify right quick. I should say "some" of you guys snapped to my view right quick. Not all of you. 
Just to be fair


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> Interesting because the shelves at the stores look pretty empty to me, for a reason. And wall street has lost about 25% also. (Dont quote me on that but I know its right around there. 30% loss yesterday)
> 
> ...
> 
> Another false flag.


"False Flag"

**** my bingo card is overflowing more than the toilets of people who didn't buy bidets in time.

And the major stock market indices climbed roughly 9% on Friday. A little different than "30% loss yesterday".

Shelves are partially empty because people are panicking. They'll slow down and normalize soon enough. Your predictions haven't been remotely true and you can't even recite yesterday's news accurately. Calm down, drink some water and reorganize tomorrow. Maybe you'll actually see that the sky isn't falling with a little sleep.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> I miss interpret one article in which I posted a couple sentences about and get ridiculed over it. I'm not going to do nothing, and posted something I probably shouldn't have in defense. I would hope all who read the article could see how it could have been miss interpreted. Especially when the headline reads 77 tested. I'm not perfect.


If by "one article" you actually mean "all of them," then we agree entirely! Sorry booger, but not sorry. You come on here flaunting an article in everyone's face saying you were right, when your own article didn't even say close to what you were claiming. If that was the only time this has happened, maybe we could overlook it. But...you just keep doing it! It's almost like it is on purpose. Almost.



olibooger said:


> A few weeks ago I was ridiculed for calling it how it is and now today reality is very similar to what I said a few weeks ago when you guys were ridiculing me for over reacting.


Really? People are rioting in the streets? There is mass civil unrest across the country? Is this another thing the media is refusing to report but is going on out there? Because THAT was your prediction. Today was the deadline. I was at Fresh Market tonight, I got everything I went there for (Dew and Root Beer) and nobody mugged me on my way out. Exactly where did you get it right???



olibooger said:


> (Dont quote me on that but I know its right around there. 30% loss yesterday)


If by 30% loss yesterday you actually mean nearly 10% gains, once again, we agree 100%!



olibooger said:


> &#128077;&#128587;‍♂


I really, really hope everyone sees this the way it appears on my screen, because again, it makes perfect sense.

Booger, post what you want. Just realize if you're going to be a jerk, it's going to come back to you. You haven't only posted asinine things, you've been totally belligerent while doing it. The good book talks about reaping what we sow. You should know that.


----------



## olibooger

Backcountry, pull your head out. It didnt drop 30% in one day obviously. Your smarter than that and so am I. That is an accumulative over the past few weeks up until end of day yesterday after Trumps speech.

People are panicking why? The virus or the market? Or something else? Or a combination of all of it? And what have I said from the beginning? Mince words, go ahead. I could care less. Its cognitive dissidence. Normal reaction.

False flag. You are so smart and quick to ridicule you would know what I am saying. 

I'll give you a hint RMS Lisutania. 

I'm sure you'll google it and see it brought about war. But it's more than that. And I'm not going to educate someone on history who blatantly rejects reality to live in a utopia that doesn't exist.

Maybe you should read 1984 or A Brave New World or Animal Farm. Or maybe not because you'll more than likely reject the message it is sending. Again, to live in a false sense of utopia than plainly isnt reality. Ignorance truly must be bliss in your world.

You're only going to respond with something incredibly foolish. 

And really, I'm done wasting my time here. Especially with someone with their head so deep in the sand. I wish I could block this thread from myself. 

I feel stupid each time I come back.

✌


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Rutroh, the Tushy is full. This is your fault, Johnnycake. I hope you are happy and raking in the commission checks.


You have no idea!

But Hello Tushy isn't the only game in town


----------



## Lone_Hunter

ok, Several pages of back n forth since i was here last. Anyway, found this website this morning.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/

Latest info, which seems to be far more accurate then any source as to counts in Utah and where:
https://coronavirus.utah.gov/latest/
As of 10PM last night we are up to 19 confirmed cases,

2 in davis
14 in salt lake
2 in summit
1 in weber
and 5 non residents.

Picking up some groccries yesterday ( all milk was out btw), I talked to a guy that worked there and he was telling me some crazy stories he heard from other customers.
All heresay, but disconcerting none the less from what he told me:
- some people where fighting at the costco in AF. cops had to be called
- some people were taking stuff off a truck in payson
- some woman in the costco in Spanish got surrounded by two guys who then took all the stuff out of her cart.

I find it hard to believe native Utahns would act this way if true. This is the sort of behavior i'd expect to see in California.... :roll:

Anyway, the guy made an interesting comment as I was leaving; i'm paraphrasing but he said it's times like this you'll see who is strong, and who isn't, because you'll see who loses their morals and who doesn't.


----------



## APD

Lone_Hunter said:


> I find it hard to believe native Utahns would act this way if true. This is the sort of behavior i'd expect to see in California.... :roll:
> 
> Anyway, the guy made an interesting comment as I was leaving; i'm paraphrasing but he said it's times like this you'll see who is strong, and who isn't, because you'll see who loses their morals and who doesn't.


comments like these say a lot about a person.


----------



## High Desert Elk

The "panic in the streets" is self inflicted. People, by nature, are fickle. The world is not doomed (yet) from COVID-19. The general population is causing the economy and markets to flounder, not the virus. 

I get it why people are stocking up. It's from assuming they may get sick and cannot leave the house for a week. No different than a bad case of the flu or the common cold. Also, schools are closing nationwide for several weeks which means mom may not be able to run to the grocery store as easily and thereby exposing infants and toddlers, a very large population at higher risk.

Handsoap and sanitizer are nowhere to be found. This tells me there are a lot of people who don't thoroughly was hands on a semi-regular basis. So, what about all the others who can't get it now? You do realize the highest risk of contact is from unwashed hands, right? So now there are large populations who cannot sanitize, but at least those who panic-shopped won't give it to anyone else. Funny how having a little on hand all the time isn't such a bad idea after all...


----------



## Iron Bear

https://kutv.com/news/local/utah-po...spend-all-crime-to-prevent-coronavirus-spread

&#128514;&#128514;&#128514;&#128514;&#128514;


----------



## Vanilla

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html

This is interesting. The vast majority of infections in South Korea traced to two clusters, both attributed to the same patient. It is important to heed direction to self quarantine immediately if you're symptomatic at all. While we can't "cure" this virus, and we won't eliminate it, we certainly have all the power in the world to make it a heck of a lot worse.


----------



## Iron Bear

😉


----------



## Iron Bear

Vanilla said:


> https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
> 
> This is interesting. The vast majority of infections in South Korea traced to two clusters, both attributed to the same patient. It is important to heed direction to self quarantine immediately if you're symptomatic at all. While we can't "cure" this virus, and we won't eliminate it, we certainly have all the power in the world to make it a heck of a lot worse.


I hope this serves as a lesson to society that when youre ill you have a moral obligation to self isolate and not spread your infection. I understand circumstances will limit some folks ability to shut down. But as it stands today a cold is no reason to limit your activity and it should be.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

High Desert Elk said:


> The "panic in the streets" is self inflicted. People, by nature, are fickle. The world is not doomed (yet) from COVID-19. The general population is causing the economy and markets to flounder, not the virus.
> 
> I get it why people are stocking up. It's from assuming they may get sick and cannot leave the house for a week. No different than a bad case of the flu or the common cold. Also, schools are closing nationwide for several weeks which means mom may not be able to run to the grocery store as easily and thereby exposing infants and toddlers, a very large population at higher risk.
> 
> Handsoap and sanitizer are nowhere to be found. This tells me there are a lot of people who don't thoroughly was hands on a semi-regular basis. So, what about all the others who can't get it now? You do realize the highest risk of contact is from unwashed hands, right? So now there are large populations who cannot sanitize, but at least those who panic-shopped won't give it to anyone else. Funny how having a little on hand all the time isn't such a bad idea after all...


People in general are fairly dumb. There will be cultural and ethical differences from place to place, but that aside, people in general are the same regardless of where they live. In short, desperate people will do desperate things. I trust very few people because of that.

Personally, I started stocking up a few weeks ago, but it wasn't because of the Covid-19. I stocked up because I knew there would be a run on the stores. I got my crap then, when I knew i could. I knew people would empty out the stores. Seriously, they only keep about 4 days or so in any grocery store to reduce spoilage. On that note, we aren't in any real trouble, until the trucks stop running. If the trucks stop running, THEN your going to see some serious **** go down after about a week, especially in heavily urbanized areas.

Much about the virus is still unknown right now. From what i've heard recently, the highest risk of transmission, is actually in the air from someone coughing for sneezing. I also heard the virus could live 3 hours in the air, and 3 days on the surface of something. I don't know if that is true or not, but if you look at the statistics, it is very obvious how contagious this virus is - it's extremely contagious. All said, Statistics are really all we have at this point i think.

Regardless of actual lethality rate be it high or low; this virus has (like it or not) become a historical event in our time. There isn't too many events one can point to where measures that are taking place now, have taken place in the past. One could also argue, to a very minor extent thus far, it's also peeled back just a tiny corner of the veneer of modern society, and given a small little peek as to how thin it is, and what ugliness lays beneath.


----------



## RandomElk16

https://thehill.com/policy/transpor...beach-after-positive-coronavirus-test-reports

I don't know if it was brought up on here or not. The problem with the "solution" is the known yet random variable that people are *&%$*@$ morons.


----------



## backcountry

Lone_Hunter said:


> ok, Several pages of back n forth since i was here last. Anyway, found this website this morning.
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/
> 
> All heresay, but disconcerting none the less from what he told me:
> - some people where fighting at the costco in AF. cops had to be called
> - some people were taking stuff off a truck in payson
> - some woman in the costco in Spanish got surrounded by two guys who then took all the stuff out of her cart.


I would caution people to not pass on hearsay and rumor. We know how quickly unconfirmed information spreads on a normal day. It seems rumor during a pandemic could be a nasty catalyst for people reacting more severely than necessary. I would hope in the days and weeks to come people will be very cautious with what they share to help maintain calm and thoughtful environments.

Per a later comment, from what I have read the virus lives:

* Up to 3 hours in the air, likely aerosolized

*Up to 24 hours on porous surfaces like paper

*Up to 3 days on hard, non-porous surfaces like stainless steel

https://www.wired.com/story/how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces/

This is pretty consistent with other coronaviruses, like SARS.

The aerosolized element is a big reason to reduce visits to public spaces.

We have been disinfecting commonly used surfaces in our home, and cars, 3-4 times a day. Sadly most disinfectants are designed for non-porous surfaces so I don't know there efficacy on paper goods.

Sounds like manufacturers are trying to ramp up production as much as possible. If people are civic minded everyone will soon have toilet paper and non perishables again. Buy what you need but it's also proper to consider community needs. In the days and weeks ahead it's helpful to remember that many families simply can't purchase more than a few days or a week's worth of necessities. They need to have essentials as well to stay healthy and "flatten the curve".

It seems we can all play an important role in creating calm, proactive and thoughtful community responses to help mitigate this disease. As it's been stated, this is a historical moment and we can be voices that lead us to positive outcomes. We have a small part to play in how this story is written.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> https://thehill.com/policy/transpor...beach-after-positive-coronavirus-test-reports
> 
> I don't know if it was brought up on here or not. The problem with the "solution" is the known yet random variable that people are *&%$*@$ morons.


Most modeling takes into account such variables, as much as possible. Some of these individuals are what are known as super spreaders, consistent with what Vanilla posted. It's still a controversial concept in the literature but it seems to pass the common sense test that there will always be individuals who through carelessness or accident pass on diseases at higher rates.

We can only do our best and encourage others to do it as well.


----------



## Fowlmouth

I was thinking about something this morning. You ever walked in a public or workplace bathroom stall and saw a lonely turd floating in the toilet without any paper? Man those guys got it made during this TP shortage crisis.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> We have been disinfecting commonly used surfaces in our home, and cars, 3-4 times a day. Sadly most disinfectants are designed for non-porous surfaces so I don't know there efficacy on paper goods.


Not to sound bad - but what would be the benefit of disinfecting your house 4x a day if there is the airborne element?

I am not against cleaning on a reasonable basis, but if one of you had it the airborne element would be the big risk in the home.

That isn't a judgement, genuinely curious your thoughts. I don't know if there becomes a point of overdoing things. Its wildly said excessive use of sanitizer and touching cleaning chemicals can actually have a negative impact on people. I am sure microbiologists are fascinated right now.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> We have been disinfecting commonly used surfaces in our home, and cars, 3-4 times a day. Sadly most disinfectants are designed for non-porous surfaces so I don't know there efficacy on paper goods.
> 
> 
> 
> Not to sound bad - but what would be the benefit of disinfecting your house 4x a day if there is the airborne element?
> 
> I am not against cleaning on a reasonable basis, but if one of you had it the airborne element would be the big risk in the home.
> 
> That isn't a judgement, genuinely curious your thoughts. I don't know if there becomes a point of overdoing things. Its wildly said excessive use of sanitizer and touching cleaning chemicals can actually have a negative impact on people. I am sure microbiologists are fascinated right now.
Click to expand...

It's not for the aerosolized element (not sure what threshold is for airborne) but for surface residency. It's similar to washing your hands regularly. There's not much you can do about the aerosolized element in general so we mitigate what we can.

We use hypochlorous acid, fewer health related side effects, in our house and let it sit for 10 minutes. We've (my wife and I) had sneezes and dry coughs for several weeks before this hit stateside, likely just seasonal gunk. We still have to leave the house so cleaning surfaces is a way of preventing pre-existing pathogens and coronavirus from being transmitted. We just won't know if we are infected for an average of 5 days so regular cleaning and disinfection is recommended (team at UofU supported these efforts).

For some extra context....MIL's ALS has made fingers almost useless and dementia means her hygiene is less than ideal, even with regular help and intervention. We just can't seem to clean her hands enough so we have put extra focus on cleaning every common surface more often.

If you don't have a high risk individual in your house and/or don't have any symptoms (including pre-existing ones that overlap with Covid-19) than your techniques will be understandably different.


----------



## Fowlmouth

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero to support economy during coronavirus pandemic.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Fowlmouth said:


> Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero to support economy during coronavirus pandemic.


Cutting taxes would do more, better yet, abolish the social security extorsion fee indefinitely.


----------



## middlefork

High Desert Elk said:


> Cutting taxes would do more, better yet, abolish the social security extorsion fee indefinitely.


Yep, just keep racking up the deficits.

I'm happy with SS but maybe that's because I'm getting paid now. Lucky for me it is covering the bills for now. No need to use my 401K yet. Until I do I won't have to deal with that hit.


----------



## brisket

High Desert Elk said:


> Fowlmouth said:
> 
> 
> 
> Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero to support economy during coronavirus pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> Cutting taxes would do more, better yet, abolish the social security extorsion fee indefinitely.
Click to expand...

I wish I could opt out of social security, it'll be insolvent before I'm able to make use of it. 
With the Fed printing money like mad and the supply of products low, get ready for some high price inflation once this virus circus subsides.


----------



## derekp1999

RandomElk16 said:


> I am sure microbiologists are fascinated right now.


I'm a microbiologist, and honestly this is fascinating. Disinfection and/or sterilization is a factor of three things: time, temperature, and concentration. Many of the household disinfectants that we commonly use are so dilute and not used appropriately. Honestly when was the last time you looked at and followed the instructions for use on a bottle of cleaner? And when not used properly the cleaners can actually be causing more harm than good... think if all the antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria that we have developed from improper use of antibiotic medications!
Some of the most frequently sick people I know are those who religiously carry and apply the Purell hand sanitizer... wonder why that is?


----------



## Catherder

RandomElk16 said:


> Not to sound bad - but what would be the benefit of disinfecting your house 4x a day if there is the airborne element?
> 
> I am not against cleaning on a reasonable basis, but if one of you had it the airborne element would be the big risk in the home.


The way I heard it explained was as follows;

Unlike some viruses like measles that can remain airborne for very long periods by adhering to tiny floating particles in the air, coronaviruses are in larger *water* droplets expelled by a sneeze or cough. While still small, the water droplets are much heavier and settle down to solid surfaces within 3 hours. However, once on a solid surface, they can survive for some time. That is why the emphasis and recommendation to clean surfaces periodically through the day.

Hope that helps


----------



## backcountry

We definitely avoid hand sanitizer unless we don't have access to sinks. And I can't stand "antibiotic soap" as soap is already antibiotic without the extra components that are horrible for aquatic systems. 

There are definitely some less than ideal disinfectants. Always read the labels as most require significantly more time than people realize. And even bottled bleach "expires" after a year under ideal storage (expires = basically salt water). 

We use hydrochlorous acid as its easier on people and equally as effective as bleach. It only lasts 2 weeks but we use it well before than. Still takes 10 minutes (potentially less but EPA testing and protocol is 10 minutes) and surface must remain damp. And it ultimately has no effect on resistance because of its method of disinfection. 

I sincerely don't know parameters of airborne but there really isn't much an average citizen can do ultimately other than social distancing anyways. What Catheder described is what I have read as well. Only behavior in our control is surface and hand sanitation.

Never realized how much my face itches until the Pandemic started. It's annoying. Might start marking the red circles on my hand as a reminder if the spread gets real bad.


----------



## RandomElk16

middlefork said:


> Yep, just keep racking up the deficits.
> 
> I'm happy with SS but maybe that's because I'm getting paid now. Lucky for me it is covering the bills for now. No need to use my 401K yet. Until I do I won't have to deal with that hit.


Wouldn't rack the deficits if we cut taxes AND the government ran/funded programs they fund. :mrgreen:

#libertarian


----------



## RandomElk16

Catherder said:


> The way I heard it explained was as follows;
> 
> Unlike some viruses like measles that can remain airborne for very long periods by adhering to tiny floating particles in the air, coronaviruses are in larger *water* droplets expelled by a sneeze or cough. While still small, the water droplets are much heavier and settle down to solid surfaces within 3 hours. However, once on a solid surface, they can survive for some time. That is why the emphasis and recommendation to clean surfaces periodically through the day.
> 
> Hope that helps


I get it for sure, I just mean in YOUR HOUSE if you are cleaning surfaces that frequently it would mean that someone in the house had the virus. No virus= no virus on solid surfaces. If there is a virus, then that 3 hour period would expose the other occupants of the house.

Outside the home, consistent cleaning in public places makes sense. Inside the home increased frequency makes sense. 4x a day doesn't unless someone has the virus, but even then only straight isolation to eliminate the airborne part makes sense.

But he explained his situation well already.


----------



## middlefork

RandomElk16 said:


> Wouldn't rack the deficits if we cut taxes AND the government ran/funded programs they fund. :mrgreen:
> 
> #libertarian


For sure! Get right on that! #oldfart


----------



## RandomElk16

derekp1999 said:


> I'm a microbiologist, and honestly this is fascinating. Disinfection and/or sterilization is a factor of three things: time, temperature, and concentration. Many of the household disinfectants that we commonly use are so dilute and not used appropriately. Honestly when was the last time you looked at and followed the instructions for use on a bottle of cleaner? And when not used properly the cleaners can actually be causing more harm than good... think if all the antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria that we have developed from improper use of antibiotic medications!
> Some of the most frequently sick people I know are those who religiously carry and apply the Purell hand sanitizer... wonder why that is?


My intention wasn't 3 consecutive replies, but why not!

My brother was a microbiologist (has since gone the MBA route) and used to teach me all types of stuff. Lots around hand sanitizers and how "kills 99.99% of germs" doesn't mean what we think it means and so on.

After a near C-diff experience I have increased my PRObiotics, prebiotics, and focused on my gut-biome while trying to avoid antibiotics. I have noticed substantial increases in my seasonal health. Not sure what that means, but I can't help but think feeding our immune system is better than trying to kill everything instead.


----------



## johnnycake

brisket said:


> I wish I could opt out of social security, it'll be insolvent before I'm able to make use of it.
> With the Fed printing money like mad and the supply of products low, get ready for some high price inflation once this virus circus subsides.


Just saying, you're not looking at this through the right lens. Depending on how this plays out, the amount being withdrawn from SS for the next decade or so might be substantially less than forecasts from 2 months ago


----------



## derekp1999

An old college professor of mine always said the organisms of the microscopic variety would "kill you deader than hell"...


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> My intention wasn't 3 consecutive replies, but why not!
> 
> My brother was a microbiologist (has since gone the MBA route) and used to teach me all types of stuff. Lots around hand sanitizers and how "kills 99.99% of germs" doesn't mean what we think it means and so on.
> 
> After a near C-diff experience I have increased my PRObiotics, prebiotics, and focused on my gut-biome while trying to avoid antibiotics. I have noticed substantial increases in my seasonal health. Not sure what that means, but I can't help but think feeding our immune system is better than trying to kill everything instead.


Healthy biome (internal and external) definitely seems like the proper long term plan. I would wager some individuals will even see unfortunate side effects from the increased sanitation we are seeing pushed right now. I don't know about ya'll but some days my hands hate me for how much I'm hand washing. Given I cook all the meals and do all the cleaning its doubly important and worse at the same time.

Sorry to hear about the C-diff. I don't know much about it other than from the nursing friends of mine. You are now probably more educated on a healthy gut biome than most which always seems to translate to understanding healthy bacteria's role throughout the body. (Still always shocked to realize how much foreign DNA is in our bodies).

I try to navigate the science the best I can on an average day and even that is tough with a degree in biology. I've called my friends multiple times this week to double check. I don't envy the average person with little to no scientific literacy at the current moment; there is so much information being thrown at people. Hard to find the right balance anymore especially with how much money is to be made in the "wellness" culture and pharmaceuticals.

The reality is much of our current strategy is to allow people to develop immunity at a certain rate. That means most homes won't benefit from extra sanitizing as "we" ultimately need "them" to get the virus. We just don't want it to happen all at the same time. And the fewer the "high risk" individuals within "them" the better our society will fair. Unique, fascinating and ugly situation we are facing.


----------



## Critter

It's just out, the Governor of Colorado has come out and said that I shouldn't go anywhere and just stay home due to living in Eagle County. The big problem that I have with it is that just about all the people that have the corona have come from out of state or out of the country. 

I hate to tell him but as the ice goes off of the ponds some of the best fishing is coming up.


----------



## Jedidiah

*fare


----------



## johnnycake

I've been enjoying the end of the world this weekend, chasing rainbows and landlocked salmon on the hard deck with the kids.


----------



## Critter




----------



## backcountry

Critter said:


> It's just out, the Governor of Colorado has come out and said that I shouldn't go anywhere and just stay home due to living in Eagle County. The big problem that I have with it is that just about all the people that have the corona have come from out of state or out of the country.
> 
> I hate to tell him but as the ice goes off of the ponds some of the best fishing is coming up.


Seems to me fishing is pretty solid social distancing.

Just get a Bluetooth speaker and play an audio of someone with a hacking cough on a loop while on the lake. Maybe do the hot glue gun snot trick I've seen photos of ; it's not a symptom but most people don't know that. If someone comes up to you just talk about the amazing, cheap trip you just returned from in Italy.


----------



## one4fishing

My brother in law just shared this on Facebook. Folks in the medical field have a rough couple of months coming up. Hopefully we can all keep an even head about this.

Last night I worked my first ER shift since COVID-19 has now made its way to the United States. I work in a 15 bed ER. Only 1 of the rooms is a negative pressure isolation room. Only 10 of the 15 beds are in actual rooms; 5 of the beds are all next to each other with curtained dividers.

Things are just starting to ramp up here in Utah. We went from less than 10 confirmed cases yesterday morning to 19 confirmed cases last night, and 20+ today. I had MULTIPLE patients come into the ER with only mild respiratory symptoms and no known exposures. And while this may not seem like a big deal, it pulled away nurses, rad techs, and housekeeping, it tied up equipment, used PPE and used one of those 10 rooms.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE, if you have upper respiratory symptoms  fever, cough, mild shortness of breath, and are not sick enough that you feel you need to be admitted to the hospital, STAY HOME. Contact the hotline  844-442-5224 to see if they recommend evaluation or testing. DO NOT go to the InstaCare, ER or your primary care provider. People need to realize if they choose to come in when they have mild symptoms they are literally putting themselves at risk for COVID-19. As ERs, clinics and urgent care offices see more and more people, the person you are sitting next to, may have coronavirus. And while you didn't when you showed up, congratulations, now you do.

That being said. If you ARE sick with fever, cough, shortness of breath AND have known exposure with fairly serious symptoms, please come and be evaluated. But for everyone else, understand we don't test everyone. We can't. We won't admit everyone. It's impossible. There is no vaccine or antiviral at this point. The people who are admitted are sick enough they need close observation, and possibly critical respiratory support.

Sorry for the rant. It was infuriating trying to sort out how we were going to screen, evaluate and see the normal day to day critically ill/injured patients PLUS the possible COVID-19 patients, and then spending 1/3 to 1/2 of my shift seeing people who had no business being in the ER. Social distancing works. DO IT. Find reasons to stay home and not excuses to go out.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Seems to me fishing is pretty solid social distancing.
> 
> Just get a Bluetooth speaker and play an audio of someone with a hacking cough on a loop while on the lake. Maybe do the hot glue gun snot trick I've seen photos of ; it's not a symptom but most people don't know that. If someone comes up to you just talk about the amazing, cheap trip you just returned from in Italy.


I am thinking of hitting the river on my next day off and if I get crowded in my favorite hole, all I would need to do is start coughing and I shouldn't have any problems.


----------



## backcountry

MGM shuttering all of its Vegas properties and not taking reservations until May 1st.


----------



## CPAjeff

I currently spend quite a bit of time at a hotel for work. Checking in tonight, I was greeted by this ...

What if I get some bad fajitas at the local Mexican food cuisine? Tomorrow morning I’m going to ask the front desk what my TP quota is for the week. In challenging times like now, I need to know the quota!


----------



## High Desert Elk

And now the backbone of America's retail is reducing stire hours and closing its doors.

Now you know why people suddenly "stocked up". This rampant fear of walking dead is doing absolutely no favors long term...


----------



## olibooger

So how is that stock market today?

Interstate travel will end here soon.

Backcountry and anyone criticizing me previously gonna face reality anytime soon? Probably not, wayyy smarter than me. 

I bet people come back saying something like, 

Oli, we never said this or that, your just over reacting.

Funny, I read an article saying "if you feel like you're over reacting, you're doing the right thing"

lmao

Good luck!✌


----------



## Dunkem

If you all got nothing good to say, then shut the hell up. nough problems around without piling them on. We will all react the way we think is best.


----------



## Dunkem

olibooger said:


> I'm sure you will. I've been saying the SAME THING for over a month! When I say good luck, I dont mean good luck surviving it. I mean good luck coming to terms with the reality of everything I've said and what IS coming....
> .....so with that, GOOD LUCK!
> 
> (But I've been chastised each time I tell you guys, so I'll keep to myself and let yall mull together what the problems are and what you should be doing yesterday)
> 
> ✌✌&#129322;


Kind sir you actually stated that you wished you could ban your self from this thread, I can help you with that.:mrgreen:


----------



## PBH

RandomElk16 said:


> After a near C-diff experience I have increased my PRObiotics, prebiotics, and focused on my gut-biome while trying to avoid antibiotics. I have noticed substantial increases in my seasonal health. Not sure what that means, but I can't help but think feeding our immune system is better than trying to kill everything instead.


I don't know what "near c-diff" means. I do know what positive for c-diff antigens but negative toxins means. It means you RUN to the toilet. Multiple times, in quick succession. It's an all out sprint. The mere thought of having to be more than a few steps away from a toilet will make you sweat...



backcountry said:


> Sorry to hear about the C-diff. I don't know much about it other than from the nursing friends of mine. You are now probably more educated on a healthy gut biome than most which always seems to translate to understanding healthy bacteria's role throughout the body. (Still always shocked to realize how much foreign DNA is in our bodies).


as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (wow -- LDS was so much easier!) I often hear people make statements about missionaries returned from foreign countries with some "unidentified" or "unknown" bug -- stuff like "he caught a bug! They've never been able to identify it!". I always thought those comments were weird. I don't believe most people understand what they are saying when they say this.

After my experience with c-diff, and being diagnosed with a mild case of chron's, I have a little better understanding. Not much, but a little. What I learned is that when the doctor prescribes antibiotics, I get really nervous! I've learned that I love those little critters living in my gut, and I don't want to wipe them out!


----------



## Vanilla

Oli, you’ve also told us at least three times that you were done with this thread and you wouldn’t be back. Yet here you are. If I can’t trust one thing you say, how am I supposed to trust anything else you say? You’ve got me so confused! Maybe I’ll go out and initiate some civil unrest until I get this all figured out. 

And High Desert, the reason retail is shutting down at night is BECAUSE of that rampant rush to stock up. If everyone remained calm and just did their normal grocery shopping, Wal-Mart would still be open 24 hours and you’d still be able to get paper towels or toilet paper when you went. We have identified the enemy, and he is us.


----------



## Dunkem

In my old store they are bringing in office people at night to help fill shelves


----------



## Critter

One of the thing that I don't understand with the stores is that people are buying all the perishables. Do they figure some way that the banana's, oranges, apples, and everything else is going to last like canned goods do? I will agree that with proper storage that some will last for a while but 90% of the people out there are not set up to store them that way.


----------



## Critter

CPAjeff said:


> I currently spend quite a bit of time at a hotel for work. Checking in tonight, I was greeted by this ...
> 
> What if I get some bad fajitas at the local Mexican food cuisine? Tomorrow morning I'm going to ask the front desk what my TP quota is for the week. In challenging times like now, I need to know the quota!


I wouldn't even worry about going down to the front desk. Usually they have extra wash cloths in each room and they work just fine for cleaning off my kiester.


----------



## CPAjeff

Critter said:


> I wouldn't even worry about going down to the front desk. Usually they have extra wash cloths in each room and they work just fine for cleaning off my kiester.


I like your style! Part of me wants to be a pain in the rear and see how many rolls of TP I can get. 

TOTP!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

High Desert Elk said:


> And now the backbone of America's retail is reducing stire hours and closing its doors.
> 
> Now you know why people suddenly "stocked up". This rampant fear of walking dead is doing absolutely no favors long term...


Bah, well I knew Winco in Orem wasn't going to be 24 hours for awhile, and now it looks like Macy's won't be as well. So much for my O'Dark 30 plan of going to the groccery store and avoid as many peoples as possible.

Insert long string of explantives here.


----------



## DallanC

olibooger said:


> It's an irresistible desire to try to inform my fellow man-kind. I've also been saying buy silver because there is a REALLY good chance for hyper inflation and the global markets to reset to one global currency.


I am long on metals generally, but lets at least acknowledge reality.

Silver was 18.68 on Feb 21st
Silver was 11.88 earlier this morning.

And you complained about the stock market going down.

People who bought silver last month are pretty unhappy today. But, those of us buying today (if you can find any), its a pretty amazing deal. Gold to silver ratio is over 117:1, almost unbelievable.

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

Oil, don't you believe that most of us on here don't know the severity of the problem that is facing us? 

If you don't you are extremely naive, and like chicken little you are running around telling everyone that the sky if falling and after a while we just get tired of the same old thing being said time and time again. 

So on the price of metals, where is your source about those that have are selling off their precious metals to pay for their stock losses? There are a lot of us that are buying that same metal and we are watching the stock market trying to predict where the swing is going to be. I myself purchased quite a bit of stock the other day and today I took a slight loss in it, around 1.5% but the odds are it is going to rebound and I have the chance to make better than a 300% return. 

So my question to you is how many cases of TP, hand sanitizer and baby wipes are sitting in your garage? The sky may be falling for a while but the sun is going to come back out and shine even brighter than ever. But we don't need someone to tell us that these are troubling times. Those of us that prepare for such a problem will be just fine. Those that didn't plan for such a problem are those that are screaming the most.


----------



## backcountry

EU Closing all borders to "non-essential" foreign travelers.

I'd wager we are going to see closure of non-essential domestic travel stateside by end of the week. We seem to be about 2 weeks behind them, which appears to be largely driven by Italy's hotspots.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ZCDRnX5kqY3E2ineGOIuS5N0SGWsdNpr1T218GK_gCdcU


----------



## DallanC

olibooger said:


> My friend. Do you know WHY precious medals are dropping?
> It's because investors on Wall Street are selling off their supply to pay for their stock losses. The price will continue to drop, as I have mentioned weeks ago, then it will spike further than anyone has ever seen when the bankers buy it all up.


Not _ even _close.

The manufacturing use for silver has all but dried up and the new production supply contracts for the upcoming manufacturing cycle are being written. With global manufacturing demand at record lows due to company shut downs, the demand just isn't there so the 6 and 12 months contracts are reflecting that lack of demand.

There are very few actual silver mines in the world, most silver comes as a byproduct of mining other metals. Supply has kept up with demand in the past, and going forward supply greatly outweighs demand.



> But dont listen to me, I'm a crackpot who knows nothing about what is happening.


;-)

Drop in gold seems somewhat related, the two biggest buyers of gold was China and India... and both of those country's have severely curtailed their purchases.



> Why did FEMA buy half a BILLION bullets about a decade ago? Why would they need so much ammo?....


It wasn't FEMA is was Dept of Homeland Security. It was their normal reorder period for training. There were 25,000 rounds of blanks in that order too... so the idea they are going to use it against citizens is laughable.

Do you know a single Navy Seal fires over 1,000,000 rounds during their training? One million for ONE person. We as a nation fire alot of ammo. Homeland hired alot of people and apparently did alot of training /shrug

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

olibooger said:


> Critter, I applaud you buying silver. I'd put a lot of money that silver you bought will be worth more than gold in the not too distant future. The us mint sold out of every piece of silver they made last month. Itll spike soon.


I hate to tell you this but there is still plenty of silver from the US Mint out there to purchase. I just looked at it and there are no restrictions on how much you can purchase.

The silver that is no longer available for purchase are the bars of silver.

As for gold, have you ever watched the show Gold Rush, do you know where 100% of that gold that they mine goes? It goes to China and India to be used in the PC, and cell phones that you are using. Let's see now, both China and India has shut down this production or slowed it down considerably so why would they need to purchase more of it if it isn't needed?


----------



## backcountry

Oli,

We mocked your crazy statements that have no bearing on reality. Statements about zombie vaccines tend to have that affect on rational people. And most of your predictions have been that way. You mix your ****tail with about 80% madness and 20% common sense. 

Fact is most people on this forum are as prepared as you. We just do it without going down the darkweb rabbit hole. 

Plus, the doomsday scenarios you write about I have zero control over or ways to mitigate. Nothing I can do if it somehow turns out to be a bioweapon or if Charles Montgomery Burns is attempting to sink the market for his gain.

PS...it's cognitive dissonance. I do have a fairly dissident approach to the crazy stuff you post though, like zombie vaccines and brain washing.


----------



## Catherder

News from the vaccine front.

https://kutv.com/news/nation-world/...cine-trial-starts-monday-03-16-2020-125537478

I have said it before, but I'm more optimistic on the vaccine front than some.

That is, unless "They" are working on a version to achieve the maximum zombie effect.


----------



## backcountry

Sounds like Bay Area is going to "shelter in place" order. I have extended family there who are already out of TP and have limited food. Hopefully they are able to resupply.

Canada "closing borders" with exceptions for Americans at the moment. 

Thread counts are going to go nuts soon.


----------



## Vanilla

Oli, you sure are cherry picking on what you've "been saying for weeks!" A couple other things you said, just so we are clear: 

1- There would be mass rioting and civil unrest within two weeks. That timeline came and went, still not seeing it. If it happens, it's just because people are as crazy as you are. 

2- By this time next year they will have a vaccine that turns people into zombies. We'll see, I guess... 

3- That "half the population" of America is going to die, because 1.5 million people will die from this in the next year. (your numbers, not mine...we will have way less than 1.5 million people die of this in the United States, and even if 1.5 million people died, that is not half the population of the United States. It's barely half the population of Utah.) 

4- That you would go away, but once again, here you are. 

I could go on, this is just a sample. While your gloating on your "out on a limb" predictions that others acknowledged and posted about well before you came in with your wild conspiracy theories, why don't you point out some of the other crap you've said too? I mean, who didn't see a hit to the economy coming as soon as this took off in China? I gave you concrete things I was told months ago (and in some cases, what has been expected for two years) well before anyone had even heard of "COVID-19." 

Let's talk more about your opinion of Utahns in general as well. Remember those things you said?


----------



## caddis8

On a more serious note, I ordered the bidet. I did not do the Tushy Spa after research. GenieBidet Toilet Seat. $149, and price had apparently increased over time. I went with the seat option because some of the research and reviews said that the bidet inserts gave a downhill slope to the seat, and ended up nearly breaking it or having it be a bit uncomforable. I did not go warm water, and will likely next time. (Will plumb warm and cold water to the toilet in the next house- in current rough design phase).

I will be reverse baptized soon. Sprinkled from and on the bottom.


----------



## backcountry

Just "gifted" my sister in law a carton of 1000' non-perforated toilet paper rolls. It was the only thing I could find her online. She'll survive the Great Toilet Paper Crisis of 2020 but we'll see if she hates me after the experience. Hopefully its better than nothing. I can't imagine being stuck in your small house without toilet paper the next 2 weeks. 

Never imagined a situation in which I would be gifting family rest stop toilet paper


----------



## Critter




----------



## Vanilla

On the testing front, the report today is they have 1 million tests available in the United States this week. They expect that to be 2 million next week, and then 5 million the week after that. 

Of course that does not mean every single test kit will be utilized, but just to talk about only 77 people getting tested last week...just in case we forgot some of the other stuff Oli has said.


----------



## johnnycake

caddis8 said:


> On a more serious note, I ordered the bidet. I did not do the Tushy Spa after research. GenieBidet Toilet Seat. $149, and price had apparently increased over time. I went with the seat option because some of the research and reviews said that the bidet inserts gave a downhill slope to the seat, and ended up nearly breaking it or having it be a bit uncomforable. I did not go warm water, and will likely next time. (Will plumb warm and cold water to the toilet in the next house- in current rough design phase).
> 
> I will be reverse baptized soon. Sprinkled from and on the bottom.


Welcome soon to the fold. And if you play your cards right and your model has the right pressure, your baptism might not be a solely external experience.


----------



## Critter

OK, so what's your point?


----------



## CPAjeff

olibooger said:


> I don't have time to research more to back up what they are doing. But silver and gold will keep dropping then skyrocket.


No need to spend your precious time researching articles that tell everyone everything we already know.

Hint hint - the vast majority of stocks will keep dropping then skyrocket - it happens during a bear market.


----------



## backcountry

A sad day in our household. Hello Tushy does not work on out setup (riser with handles). 

**** you Johnnycake for getting our hopes up for a TP free future!!!


----------



## Hunttilidrop

My wife ordered a hose hookup bidet type thing that rigs to the water line behind the toilet off amazon yesterday! I’m without effort moving up in this world!😎


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> Quote where I said any of that.
> 
> I never said there would be mass rioting in two weeks. But here by July, its possible.
> 
> I also never said their would be a zombie vaccine. I said "what if the vaccine they come up with turns people into zombies. Would you still take it of forced to by sell and trade.
> 
> Find where I said the rest. Continue to put words in my mouth. Go right ahead. Whatever makes you feel better.
> 
> Like I said, quote the post number so all can see exactly where I said any of what you say I said.
> 
> I would LOVE to go back and read my own words.
> 
> We are waiting Vanilla.
> 
> I know I am.
> 
> Post number?
> 
> I know 110% I said close to none of what you're saying I did. This type of behavior comes from less intelligent people to try to lift themselves up. In this situation i dont see why, when I'm informing. But like I keep saying, you guys are soooo smart you can read between the lines. Stop staring at the tv and think for yourself.
> Read a few books on sociology. Everyones behavior is pretty straight forward.
> 
> ✌
> 
> Come to think of it, what you're doing is exactly what you're accusing me of doing and is what main stream news does. Construe the story to fit the narrative. Yall are just flat rejecting the message.
> 
> And that's okay. Keep your head in the sand.
> 
> I'm tired of this.
> 
> If a moderator reads this, please delete my account. I would appreciate it.


Post # 362



olibooger said:


> The vaccines have been slowly turning people into zombies ever since there have been vaccines. Connect the dots.
> I'm not going to give a full on lesson on formaldehyde and heavy metals as preservatives being linked to autism and lower IQ. Not even jumping into GMO food, fluoride, chemtrails or the links between all of it.


Just the one example


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> A sad day in our household. Hello Tushy does not work on out setup (riser with handles).
> 
> **** you Johnnycake for getting our hopes up for a TP free future!!!


...did you contact their customer service to get instructions of what things you might be able to get at a hardware store to modify it so it would work?

If so, well, I'd be willing to bet there are still other affordable options. You now know you need a moist anus to be happy, so I am confident you can find a way to ditch the butt paper and join us while we point and mock the squabbling savages.


----------



## RandomElk16

PBH said:


> I don't know what "near c-diff" means. I do know what positive for c-diff antigens but negative toxins means. It means you RUN to the toilet. Multiple times, in quick succession. It's an all out sprint. The mere thought of having to be more than a few steps away from a toilet will make you sweat...


That was my experience, but I tested negative for c-diff. But I was missing a lot of healthy bacteria. Basically my biome was a mess. All caused by an antibiotic I was prescribed.

The way I got it back on track? Delicate gut-biome dieting, LOTS of probiotics, and patience. Since then I focus on gut health and haven't used an antibiotic since...

Not saying I wouldn't or anything, but I try not to. And overall health is up.


----------



## CPAjeff

olibooger said:


> If a moderator reads this, please delete my account. I would appreciate it.


Very typical response from someone with no personal accountability - why don't you just stay away?

Believe me, we don't need ol' olibooger riding in like a knight in shining armor trying to save us all.

See ya!

TOTP!


----------



## Hunttilidrop

Dang! I better check and see if she ordered the hello tushy or not. That would be ****ty!


----------



## backcountry

johnnycake said:


> ...did you contact their customer service to get instructions of what things you might be able to get at a hardware store to modify it so it would work?
> 
> If so, well, I'd be willing to bet there are still other affordable options. You now know you need a moist anus to be happy, so I am confident you can find a way to ditch the butt paper and join us while we point and mock the squabbling savages.


I did. They've had such a rush they are 3-5 days out on customer service responses. I'm not sure if anything will help as it seems like a pretty concrete incompatibility. The riser arms are more important for her right now.

Worst case is we just throw it in storage for a future in which the Tushy is clearly more important than the riser. That's if they don't take it on return, which they seem like a company that will. Most of the affordable ones look to have the same side panel design.

So it goes. Back to the toilet paper queue.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> I did. They've had such a rush they are 3-5 days out on customer service responses. I'm not sure if anything will help as it seems like a pretty concrete incompatibility. The riser arms are more important for her right now.
> 
> Worst case is we just throw it in storage for a future in which the Tushy is clearly more important than the riser. That's if they don't take it on return, which they seem like a company that will. Most of the affordable ones look to have the same side panel design.
> 
> So it goes. Back to the toilet paper queue.


Given their backlog, you might be able to get dollar for dollar back on KSL. Probably more, but nobody wants to get accused of profiteering right now...


----------



## shaner

I’m sad for Oli.
On another thread he reported he did not have any friends, he even seemed vague if anybody at his work was at least a ‘work friend’.
I wonder why he does not have any friends...


----------



## Critter

olibooger said:


> If a moderator reads this, please delete my account. I would appreciate it.


As a FYI for you in most forums your account can not be deleted.

You make a choice to come here and post or not to log in and not post, that decision is all yours.


----------



## Fowlmouth

I'm guessing gasoline rations aren't too far off. This would be one way to keep people home.....Keep your tanks full....


----------



## hondodawg

Guys and gals 
I’m sittin at the Hilton in Austin right now. I started my morning in SLC-DEN-SAN-LAS-AUS. Flights are 50% capacity right now. Airports are quite, ATC isn’t busy, it’s so weird. I expect the air system to be shut down by the weekend. If we( the airlines don’t get some sort of protection we’ll furlough thousands and thousands. Which I think will be the tipping point heading into a major recession. But if they could say park the planes for two weeks nationwide with pay/job protection (I hate to see that) it would flatten the curve and hold off a recession. IMO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Vanilla

Fowlmouth said:


> I'm guessing gasoline rations aren't too far off. This would be one way to keep people home.....Keep your tanks full....


Stop it!

Gas rations are only coming if we cause them. There is not an oil shortage nor fuel shortage. The only thing that will create one is if this type of panic is encouraged.

(As an aside, I try to follow a rule where I don't let my tank get below half anyway. Old habits from a time when petrol was hard to come by!)


----------



## DallanC

Stopped off at Arbys in American Fork this evening, they aren't allowing any seating in the dining area. Its "to go" only.


-DallanC


----------



## Jedidiah

Hey Oli, just set your contact email address on your account to something random and then set your password to a 60 character random monstrosity (maybe roll your Bible across the keyboard a few times?) and then log out.


----------



## backcountry

Fowlmouth said:


> I'm guessing gasoline rations aren't too far off. This would be one way to keep people home.....Keep your tanks full....


That would be a bold, unusual mood for the POTUS. Right now we have a glut of cheap gasoline so I doubt he'd do something so unpopular. Not to mention such rations often end up with huge lines which kind of defeats the purpose.

But who knows, I've been wrong a few times on this thread.


----------



## Critter

Another unverified claim.


I thought that you were leaving?


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> Here comes government food rations / distribution.
> By the end of the week most likely!! Whooopee!
> Yay, this will be fun!


Is that how they dupe us into taking he zombie vaccines?


----------



## Vanilla

I find myself agreeing with both backcountry and Jed over and over and over again. 

I'm getting checked for coronavirus ASAP! 

Just kidding gents. Just kidding... 

Oops, there I go joking around again! I must have my head in the sand to try and laugh every once in a while.


----------



## CPAjeff

olibooger said:


> Here comes government food rations / distribution.
> By the end of the week most likely!! Whooopee!
> Yay, this will be fun!


Shaun?


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> I find myself agreeing with both backcountry and Jed over and over and over again.
> 
> I'm getting checked for coronavirus ASAP!
> 
> Just kidding gents. Just kidding...
> 
> Oops, there I go joking around again! I must have my head in the sand to try and laugh every once in a while.


It's the freakiest side effect of this outbreak. Let me know what your doctor says.


----------



## backcountry

Pretty funny. Our house needed some humor tonight.

https://t.co/Hqhc4fFXbe

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239624352305303552


----------



## Jedidiah

Vanilla said:


> I find myself agreeing with both backcountry and Jed over and over and over again.


Look, I don't like it either.


----------



## johnnycake

olibooger said:


> Honestly, how many wish I would just stop posting anything? Let's get five "ayes" and I'll seriously lay off. &#129300;&#129315;
> 
> Oh yeah, I was supposed to post articles about FEMA buying massive amounts of ammo.


Aye.

And seriously, I'm concerned about your mental health. Good luck.


----------



## willfish4food

olibooger said:


> Nope, like I said many posts ago, and i have no idea or anything to back this up at all BUT i was thinking *they* COULD go to a cashless society because actual money spreads the virus. So* they* would need to go all digital. Then the vaccine COULD stupify people beyond imagine, if you call it zombie then go for it. THEN if you dont take their vaccine, *they* turn you off.
> They already have microchip implants that store health records, driving records, credit scores, car registration and everything. What if the vaccine includes your chip so *they* can turn you off.
> 
> The mark of the beast.
> 
> *They *have done studies to find out the best place to put the chip and guess where they decided it to be best? Right smack on your forehead. LoL. Just as the bible describes it.


Serious question. Who is "they" in your post? I can tell you, I work for the Federal Government, and it definitely will not be them. It is, by its vice of being too big, incredibly inefficient. There is literally no mechanism it has to act on a conspiracy to the scale you are proposing. The Government cannot agree about anything. Literally pick any issue facing our country today and you will find deeply divided disagreement in the ranks of legislature. But you think that they all came together to hatch an elaborate multi-step multi-phase conspiracy that would have had to span multiple presidencies and multiple terms for senators and members of the House, and nobody, no person involved, no aid to the people involved, no newcomer to the system ever blew the whistle? Not to mention all the downstream in that system, the media, banks, the military, the medical personnel, and the thousands upon thousands of other people who would have to execute this plan on the local levels.

Also, I'm confused, what chip are you talking about? RFID chips are not widespread in the US. And the idea that "they" could implant them without you knowing in a vaccine is asinine. The size of the chips are on the order of millimeters not micrometers. They wont fit through the needle. Lastly on this point, I'm trying to be optimistic for your sanity and assume that by, "turn them off" you're referring to turn off their finances and not pulling the plug on their life.



olibooger said:


> Stock market, check
> Starting to look like Italy, check
> Bread lines in regions, soon to see
> Interstate travel ban, soon (this may not actually happen because it is unconstitutional, but if it does there will be lawsuits)
> Global currency, coming up not too distant future
> Cashless society, in our lifetime
> Mark of the beast....praise Jesus! They cant take that from us! The gospel that is.


Just to be clear, from this list the two things that have actually happened, anybody with any awareness of current events could see those coming. You don't have to be enlightened to some grand conspiracy to predict those.


----------



## willfish4food

Oh, and I'm conflicted between aye and nay. On the one hand, I'm board at work, so the entertainment value is priceless to me. On the other, reading a lot of that makes me worried for you and anyone actually listening to you. Not sure which is worse, giving you a forum to verbalize what you're thinking and making it more concrete in your mind, or asking you to cut off your outlet for the craziness and forcing you to spin the crazy in your brain without an outlet to vent the pressure. I just keep hoping that at some point you'll say, "When I say that out loud, it does sound crazy."


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> Fact is most people on this forum are as prepared as you. We just do it without going down the darkweb rabbit hole.


I think in Utah, a lot of people are prepared, but how much probably varies. Some, more then others, for sure.



backcountry said:


> Sounds like Bay Area is going to "shelter in place" order. I have extended family there who are already out of TP and have limited food. Hopefully they are able to resupply.
> 
> Canada "closing borders" with exceptions for Americans at the moment.
> 
> Thread counts are going to go nuts soon.


I don't have any family in Frisco, but I do have some that live out in "that state who's name I cannot utter without making a hateful comment" ....... anyway, like most Californian's, they have no preparations at all. Socially out there, being prepared in any capacity, is considered nuts. Most people usually, probably, believe that everything will go on as normal, because it always has. Realistically, I told them to get an emergency kit together incase of natural disaster a few years ago. I even sent them a book on the subject back in 2015:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0785830243/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

On top of that, I told them 3 weeks ago, "buy your stuff NOW".

They didn't listen. Now I worry things don't go to nuts there, for their sakes.



backcountry said:


> That would be a bold, unusual mood for the POTUS. Right now we have a glut of cheap gasoline so I doubt he'd do something so unpopular. Not to mention such rations often end up with huge lines which kind of defeats the purpose.
> 
> But who knows, I've been wrong a few times on this thread.


It never occured to me they'd shut down the pumps or ration gasoline. I honestly don't see that happening with more people staying at home, but I do see the motivation to get your gas now as opposed to later, in order to obtain the fuel before the virus becomes too wide spread and the risk of contracting it at the pump becomes greater.

ATM,s gas stations, grocery stores, things like that, are going to be high risk areas catching the.... "T Virus". :roll:

As an aside, I think people are starting to order/buy those "disaster prep" items they've been putting off. (*cough* Totally not.......) MidwayUSA is now having a high demand so their turn around isn't as quick as it normally is.


----------



## Critter

Vail Resorts just announced that all of their ski resorts will now be closed for the rest of the season. 

So they are essentially closing around a month early here in Colorado.

I was just thinking about the Wildlife Board and all the RAC meetings in Utah, this could get interesting.


----------



## middlefork

Meanwhile Amazon is looking for 100,000 more employees to meet demand for online orders. Kroeger is looking for more employees to help stock shelves and clean.

It is amazing some think all those products just magical appear.

And the sun came up again this morning.


----------



## backcountry

I saw the call for grocery store workers. Makes sense. They have been looking ragged the last few times I went.


----------



## shaner

I vote Aye.
I would like for you to go make an honest friend.
You might be surprised how much more fun life can be if you have some friends around.
Go shoot some trap, go fishing, or work on a old car or something?
Even if the world was to end tomorrow, why go out acting like a tinfoil hat wearing kook?


----------



## Critter

I am also a Aye

The tinfoil hat society is busy enough that we don't need it here.


----------



## backcountry

Aye. 

Sorry mate, but we need calm and level headed responses right now.


----------



## Hunttilidrop

Aye


----------



## Vanilla

I don’t care if you go away or not. I’m more concerned about you not being a man of your word, and then asking why we won’t listen to you. So aye, just to see if you’re a man of your word finally. I’m not holding my breath. 

Good news on the corona-front: 

Asian countries hit early with this are seeing enough progress that they are starting to see things come back. Pro basketball leagues in South Korea, Japan, and China will begin playing again within the next few weeks, without spectators. Not totally normal, but it’s positive progress! 

Italy is reporting three days in a row of the same amount of new cases. That means the infection rate has leveled off, which means their lockdown is working for its intended purpose. 

Both these things are very positive news, and should give us guidance here that if we follow proper protocols, we will level off infection and come out of this in the not-too-distant future. And with the vaccine already in testing mode, that is all good news. 

No new world order. No zombies. No Illuminati controlling who gets the virus. Just positive news that should give everyone courage, but also guidance about how we beat this.


----------



## caddis8

I'm a nay. We all have the freedom to speak our mind- popular, crazy, smart or otherwise. 

Speak your mind if you want. We should welcome that. We don't have to agree with it, but he should be able to give his .02. 

Just me.


----------



## Critter




----------



## willfish4food

olibooger said:


> They are the bankers. The top .001 percenters. Do you really think our government runs on OUR own money?
> 
> I've said this on this thread before too. When you have all the money in the world and anything you do becomes boring because you can do anything you want, anything at all. Man was cursed with a sin nature. Having endless money man will end up trying to take over the world. And we are seeing it now.
> *I researched into this stuff HARD for over a year after getting out of the military about ten years ago.* Seeing it unfold in front of my eyes is really REALLY bad!
> 
> I counted five ayes. I have better things to do with my time anyways. I'm done with this thread, as promised.
> 
> Jesus loves you and died for you to have an everlasting eternal relationship with Him.
> It's all that will matter one day and they cant take it from you.
> 
> ✌


So ultra rich people have nothing better to do with their time than plot the destruction of the world. Got it.

I made the problem you're having bold for you. If you research "hard" into conspiracy theories for a year or more, of course the crazy is going to start sounding normal.

I'm looking forward to you keeping your word and not seeing your reply to this.

In all sincerity, good luck. I hope you find something more uplifting to fill you thoughts. If you want to talk religion, clearly the Savior of the world sees something in us that's worth redeeming. Maybe you could try to see things through His eyes.


----------



## backcountry

It's wild watching the active case statistics. Rates of severe cases have dropped to 7% from upwards of 20%. Fatality rate has risen to 9%. I wonder how much of that is driven by sudden need to triage in places like Italy, Spain and Iran. 

These numbers will ultimately settle down closer to the 2-3.4% rate previously published but it paints a fairly honest picture about what healthcare professionals are dealing with right now. 😔


----------



## willfish4food

Another statistic I find interesting is S. Korea's death rate at <1%. It makes sense to me since their testing is so extensive. They're probably getting positive tests back on people who would not even be tested in the majority of other nations. Makes me wonder that the actual death rate is for this one.


----------



## Vanilla

I know of some influential people that are advocating for every single American to be tested. And for this to happen in the next two weeks. It would take loosening or regulations by the FDA and the private sector really stepping up even more, but how cool would that be? 

Then people would know they are sick and STAY THE CRAP HOME!!! (Hopefully)


----------



## middlefork

There is still a lag between testing and results.

Right now people who are tested are presumed to be infected. Just because you are negative today does not mean you will be tomorrow.

But if it makes everybody feel warm and fuzzy why not?


----------



## Stickboy2

backcountry said:


> Sounds like Bay Area is going to "shelter in place" order. I have extended family there who are already out of TP and have limited food. Hopefully they are able to resupply.
> 
> Canada "closing borders" with exceptions for Americans at the moment.
> 
> Thread counts are going to go nuts soon.


In NorCal it is mostly the Bay Area for now. It looks like it somewhat follows the states map of community spread cases. The shelter order is pretty wild to read through. It's a misdemeanor if you violate. You can be out to get gas, food and medical care. And you can still go out to get a walk in for exercise.

Also heard the two hospital ships in the navy, Mercy and Comfort, are spinning up. That will add some capacity to the medical folks.

Yea people here, especially in the Bay are not at all prepared. They wouldn't know food storage if it smacked them in the face.


----------



## DallanC

My work just sent out an email to all 93,000 employees saying "We encourage as many employees who can effectively work from home to do so as much as possible starting tomorrow"

Wooooo! Awesome. Sucks to be the guys making facemasks though... lol.

-DallanC


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> It's wild watching the active case statistics. Rates of severe cases have dropped to 7% from upwards of 20%. Fatality rate has risen to 9%. Can you site this? I have seen it consistently hoover between 3.45 and 4.2%. I just searched and it's 4.0% I wonder how much of that is driven by sudden need to triage in places like Italy, Spain and Iran.
> 
> These numbers will ultimately settle down closer to the 2-3.4% rate previously published but it paints a fairly honest picture about what healthcare professionals are dealing with right now. &#128532;


WHO said before they actually thing TRUE mortality is around 1% - which falls in line with the countries that are highly testing.

China has a highly concentrated population fo 1.4 BILLION people and saw 80,000 cases and ~3200 deaths.

The idea that America would see 100 Million cases and 500K+ deaths is still wild to me.

I don't wear a tinfoil hat. But seriously, I went from "You are wild bro" to a "I dunno, you might be on to something". Problem is I haven't picked which conspiracy makes sense.

What I do know is that this Virus is 3+ months in and has killed less than 10K people worldwide and has infected about 200K people. For a "highly contagious" disease the spread is still slow. Gobert had contact with a large number of people and infected what, 2?

I frankly don't know what to believe or think of all this. It's unprecedented. If it works, it's because "martial law" saved us. If it doesn't it's because we "acted too late".

I reiterate that the things this proves in TWENTY TWENTY is governments are still ancestral and ran like ****, and that we really REALLY suck at science and manufacturing. A vaccine taking 1.5 years is a joke. Especially when they actually have them already. Either the red tape is too much, or the science is trash.


----------



## DallanC

RandomElk16 said:


> I reiterate that the things this proves in TWENTY TWENTY is governments are still ancestral and ran like ****, and that we really REALLY suck at science and manufacturing. A vaccine taking 1.5 years is a joke. Especially when they actually have them already. Either the red tape is too much, or the science is trash.


I generally agree with you but the vaccine thing HAS to be taken slow. Its introducing all kinds of strange things into your body. And you really only know if it causes bad side effects by running small tests, then increasing the sample size... and then watch for longer term negative effects.

If a vaccine causes 1 death per 1000 people... you wont know that until you've done tries on several thousand people. What about people who get autoimmune diseases several years down the road? You want everyone inoculated today without knowing if its safe or not long term?

We want quick solutions but as biological beings, it just doesnt work like that unless you are really willing to kill ALOT of people along the way rushing through tests.

-DallanC


----------



## RandomElk16

DallanC said:


> I generally agree with you but the vaccine thing HAS to be taken slow. Its introducing all kinds of strange things into your body. And you really only know if it causes bad side effects by running small tests, then increasing the sample size... and then watch for longer term negative effects.
> 
> If a vaccine causes 1 death per 1000 people... you wont know that until you've done tries on several thousand people. What about people who get autoimmune diseases several years down the road? You want everyone inoculated today without knowing if its safe or not long term?
> 
> We want quick solutions but as biological beings, it just doesnt work like that unless you are really willing to kill ALOT of people along the way rushing through tests.
> 
> -DallanC


I know it needs to take time... It's just moments like these that remind humans we aren't crap. Imagine the next time a virus with a higher fatality rate goes around and we say "It's 1.5 years til vaccine".

I guess I just look at it as "Would less people die if the Black Death happened today?" or are we only slightly more prepared than 1347? The scientific solution is quarantine, but outside of that? We still accept 100K flu deaths as a tolerable rate.

It's just a reminder is all. No rush.


----------



## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> There is still a lag between testing and results.
> 
> Right now people who are tested are presumed to be infected. Just because you are negative today does not mean you will be tomorrow.
> 
> But if it makes everybody feel warm and fuzzy why not?


Then we need more red tape cut so more analysis can be done. I assure you there ways if we strip the 4700 hoops to jump through and allow people to work. Just like when the test kits went from a few thousand to a million because the government "allowed" more to get involved.

I believe that there are many things that the current administration has done well and should be commended, but the lag in testing is something they need to answer for.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Going back to the thread title, "Who's worried?"


Ill tell you what worries me:


1. Possible effects COVID-19 might have on my wife who has asthma, and has been on COPD medication for close to a year now. See those Treligy commercials on TV? Without it, she couldn't breath for crap. From everything I've read, people with a pre-existing condition develop pneumonia and good percentage of those people die. I can't afford to lose my wife. It would gut me like a fish emotionally, and financially i have to wonder how i'd hold down the house and raise our daughter on my own.

2. People. Most people are reactionary, and desperate people will do desperate things. If this drags on for too long, and the stores are heavily ran upon, or, if i'm to don a tin foil at for a moment and say, "if the trucks stop running", I fully expect home invasions to increase. Especially here in Utah county. Everyone knows Utah county used to be called "happy valley" for a reason"and all those "mormon food stores" are to be found aplenty in many basements, all to be had for the taking for those who are desperate enough. I'm already mulling over how to better increase home security to deter this, currently remote, possibility.

3. Financial after effects. I suspect things are going to be tough financially after all is said and done. We had plans to buy a practice in less then 5 years, I don't know how this will effect those plans.

The LAST thing that worries me is the virus itself where I, and my daughter is concerned. I'm 45, going on 46 in a few months. I'm fit, not overweight, i suspect if i catch the virus, it will suck balls but i'll be ok. Our daugther will probably be ok, but it will have us worried sick being parents. That said, i'm taking the virus seriously, because if I or our daughter gets sick, in all likelihood it will be transmitted to my wife, with above mentioned pre existing conditions. I find myself ordering things online, that two to three weeks ago, id just go out to the store and pick up. 

This post brought to you by a straight shot of Glenfiddich. Good Scottish whiskey. Thing i'll go have enough shot, and finish cooking dinner. :mrgreen:


----------



## Fowlmouth

The big question is...….What firearm(s) are you going to purchase with your $1000+ check? Tikka .300 Win Mag Hunter here.....:smile:


----------



## Critter

Fowlmouth said:


> The big question is...&#8230;.What firearm(s) are you going to purchase with your $1000+ check? Tikka .300 Win Mag Hunter here.....:smile:


I have about all the firearms that I really need but I do want a few more but that $1000 would just put a dent into the down payment for what I want.

I was actually thinking of investing it in some precious metals.


----------



## Jedidiah

The idea that a vaccine could be more dangerous than the disease (or even a percentage of the amount danger that is significant in comparison) is not right thinking. All vaccines are a tiny bit dangerous and you have to weigh the risks. For example I get my flu vaccine knowing I might get sick from the vaccine, but it's very likely to not be as bad as getting the current strain of flu and I'm way way less likely to get sick at all. It also protects my friends and family who are elderly or immune system compromised.

COVID-19 is different. There's very little chance that everyone in the world isn't going to get this virus. You're going to get it eventually. Then it's probably going to mutate like the flu and then a lot of people are going to get it again. I'm not sure what you mean by "all kinds of strange things", because if you're talking about dead and weakened virus cells you're already going to get those inside you no matter what you do.


----------



## weaversamuel76

Critter said:


> Vail Resorts just announced that all of their ski resorts will now be closed for the rest of the season.
> 
> So they are essentially closing around a month early here in Colorado.
> 
> I was just thinking about the Wildlife Board and all the RAC meetings in Utah, this could get interesting.


9 SFW members in a room together without the Joe Smoe's of Utah to oppose thier greatness what could possibly go wrong?

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


----------



## DallanC

Jedidiah said:


> I'm not sure what you mean by "all kinds of strange things", because if you're talking about dead and weakened virus cells you're already going to get those inside you no matter what you do.


Research "antibody immunity enhancement", its eye opening.

Or watch this Joe Rogen clip I linked earlier... 31 second mark he explains it well.






-DallanC


----------



## CPAjeff

Fowlmouth said:


> The big question is...&#8230;.What firearm(s) are you going to purchase with your $1000+ check? Tikka .300 Win Mag Hunter here.....:smile:


Depending on if the DEMS get their way, it'll be closer to $2,000 now and more later in the summer and fall depending on the economy.

Handouts are a scary thing ...

But maybe a hunting trip would be a good use of this handout.


----------



## Catherder

I practiced a little social distancing today on the river for a while. Sadly, not for as long as desired. The fish also were practicing social distancing with my flies too, more than I would have liked. 


A couple of additional items.

1. With regards to vaccination, it is true that the developers have to do their due diligence. However, they are not starting from "scratch" in their development. There is a foundation from developing other vaccinations, including coronavirus vaccines that can be built upon to aid in the process. This, plus the urgency of the task, should allow success in an accelerated timeframe. 

2. I see Oli has been voted off the island. I didn't care one way or another, but it was a bit entertaining to see what he'd come up with next. Sadly, I think he was scared, like many folks, and that was his way of showing it. 

Also, maybe I'm just miffed that Backcountry won the conspiracy theory bingo instead of me. :neutral:


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's wild watching the active case statistics. Rates of severe cases have dropped to 7% from upwards of 20%. Fatality rate has risen to 9%. Can you site this? I have seen it consistently hoover between 3.45 and 4.2%. I just searched and it's 4.0% I wonder how much of that is driven by sudden need to triage in places like Italy, Spain and Iran.
> 
> These numbers will ultimately settle down closer to the 2-3.4% rate previously published but it paints a fairly honest picture about what healthcare professionals are dealing with right now. &#128532;
> 
> 
> 
> WHO said before they actually thing TRUE mortality is around 1% - which falls in line with the countries that are highly testing.
> 
> China has a highly concentrated population fo 1.4 BILLION people and saw 80,000 cases and ~3200 deaths.
> 
> The idea that America would see 100 Million cases and 500K+ deaths is still wild to me.
> 
> I don't wear a tinfoil hat. But seriously, I went from "You are wild bro" to a "I dunno, you might be on to something". Problem is I haven't picked which conspiracy makes sense.
> 
> What I do know is that this Virus is 3+ months in and has killed less than 10K people worldwide and has infected about 200K people. For a "highly contagious" disease the spread is still slow. Gobert had contact with a large number of people and infected what, 2?
> 
> I frankly don't know what to believe or think of all this. It's unprecedented. If it works, it's because "martial law" saved us. If it doesn't it's because we "acted too late".
> 
> I reiterate that the things this proves in TWENTY TWENTY is governments are still ancestral and ran like ****, and that we really REALLY suck at science and manufacturing. A vaccine taking 1.5 years is a joke. Especially when they actually have them already. Either the red tape is too much, or the science is trash.
Click to expand...

It's from one of three big data compiling sites:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Active case fatality, case fatality rate and the disease's ultimate fatality rate will all be different. The "active case fatality" is limited by data coming from actual people tested for the disease. Italy and Iran are driving the fatality number way up right now as the people diagnosed are severe cases.

Over time we'll see that number drop as more people are tested. That will get us closer to WHO Case Fatality Rate that's been published from research in Chinsa.

Actual mortality rate will take years of antibody surveys. That's when we'll get true comparison to historic pathogens. It's probably going to be less than 2% and closer to 1%. Still ten times higher than seasonal influenza but not wild.

We also need to recognize as China diminishes lock downs that they'll eventually see numbers climb again. It's inevitable. They'll be better prepared and be able to control it easier but they won't be able to fully stop the spread completely. Their numbers will be in the hundreds of thousands if not tens of millions by end of 2020, roughly a year anniversary. They just bought time.

This virus and disease is with us until spring of 2021.


----------



## brisket

CPAjeff said:


> Fowlmouth said:
> 
> 
> 
> The big question is...&#8230;.What firearm(s) are you going to purchase with your $1000+ check? Tikka .300 Win Mag Hunter here.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Depending on if the DEMS get their way, it'll be closer to $2,000 now and more later in the summer and fall depending on the economy.
> 
> Handouts are a scary thing ...
> 
> But maybe a hunting trip would be a good use of this handout.
Click to expand...

This is not good. All it does is take from one pocket (via price inflation) and put it in the next. We have a supply problem, as a lot of factories are not running. All this does is add more demand to an already shrinking supply of goods. Everything is going to get a lot more expensive.
Even though I disagree with this, I prefer it to the Fed printing money and giving it to the banks. At least the people have a chance to use the money first. Still, not good.


----------



## High Desert Elk

What concerns me most is the obtuse attitude months ago of the ones now implementing soft martial law...


----------



## backcountry

High Desert Elk said:


> What concerns me most is the obtuse attitude months ago of the ones now implementing soft martial law...


Could you clarify/explain? Sincerely curious as I don't fully understand the comment.


----------



## Jedidiah

DallanC said:


> Research "antibody immunity enhancement", its eye opening.
> 
> Or watch this Joe Rogen clip I linked earlier... 31 second mark he explains it well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -DallanC


The term he used was "Antibody Dependent Enhancement" and Joe Rogan is a coked up jackwagon. Watch some of his anti-hunting videos some time. ADE is a thing in pretty much all vaccines, you can't have vaccines without that small percentage of flukes that screw up a small percentage of people but it's like not wearing a seatbelt because you know a guy that had that one collision that wrecked his guts as a result of a faulty lap belt.

I'm going to make two points, first is that even if the vaccine causes some people to have a more severe infection than they would have without it, if that number is a significant number lower than the number that will die as a result of getting it naturally (which will almost certainly be higher because literally everyone is going to get it) I hope they force people to get vaccinated as soon as they have an effective vaccine. Personally I'd gladly get the earlier one with a 1 in 1000 chance because the new lower death rate for people who have actually caught the disease is 1.4 percent, or 14 in 1000. China's estimates were 4%, so hopefully the new number is true. One thing I can tell you is if the vaccine has a 100% chance of making you immune to this round it's still a better chance then getting it, and you're probably 100% likely to get it. That doesn't take much advanced math to figure out.

The second point is that the thing that made me respond was "all kinds of strange things". There's no strange unknown things in vaccines.

This probably goes on forever, it will come back around next year with a somewhat reduced deadliness but still be worse than the flu. We need to get a handle on it yesterday and literally the only thing is a vaccine.


----------



## backcountry

Quick note...Joe Rogan is definitely a weirdo on some things but he loves hunting. He's been on several MeatEater episodes. Maybe they changed him from his previous mindset? Haven't watched but a handful of his episodes so I don't know.


----------



## Jedidiah

Huh...I watched one where he had that english actor who was definitely pro-hunting and the bias of the questions Joe was asking were definitely anti-hunting but maybe he was just playing the role of the foil for the sake of the interview. That's still kind of a smarmy way to do an interview anyway, and I'm not taking back the "coked up jackwagon" comment. But to go further on Joe himself on this particular subject, he's been having anti-vaccine guys on his show for quite a while and definitely has guests on that support his views. I like a debate and all but someone who only has serious conversations with people who he knows are going to agree with him is not really worth my time.


----------



## DallanC

Joe anti hunting? He buys tags and hunts elk on Deseret for him and his posse.


-DallanC


----------



## Jedidiah

Alright I must have misheard, it wasn't really part of the point anyway. I'll spend some more time listening when one of his shows comes up in my normal media consumption.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> It's from one of three big data compiling sites:
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
> 
> Active case fatality, case fatality rate and the disease's ultimate fatality rate will all be different. The "active case fatality" is limited by data coming from actual people tested for the disease. Italy and Iran are driving the fatality number way up right now as the people diagnosed are severe cases.
> 
> Over time we'll see that number drop as more people are tested. That will get us closer to WHO Case Fatality Rate that's been published from research in Chinsa.
> 
> Actual mortality rate will take years of antibody surveys. That's when we'll get true comparison to historic pathogens. It's probably going to be less than 2% and closer to 1%. Still ten times higher than seasonal influenza but not wild.
> 
> We also need to recognize as China diminishes lock downs that they'll eventually see numbers climb again. It's inevitable. They'll be better prepared and be able to control it easier but they won't be able to fully stop the spread completely. Their numbers will be in the hundreds of thousands if not tens of millions by end of 2020, roughly a year anniversary. They just bought time.
> 
> This virus and disease is with us until spring of 2021.


Yeah I use that site also.. I just am looking at the TOTAL since that is the most relevant. Especially considering the "closed case" is the early on limited testing and deaths.

I would just say if you are going to point to the 9%, it helps to be very clear about that.


----------



## Vanilla

Joe may be a coked up jackwagon, but he’s neither anti-hunting nor is he anti-vax. Watch the whole interview Dallan posted. It’s pretty fascinating, and he talks about the need for people to vaccinate in pretty good detail right in the interview. 

He absolutely is a hunter. He definitely supports (and even pleaded with people in that interview) vaccination. I have no idea about the coked up part, but I’ve heard he was a decent enough guy when he was hunting in Utah.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's from one of three big data compiling sites:
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
> 
> Active case fatality, case fatality rate and the disease's ultimate fatality rate will all be different. The "active case fatality" is limited by data coming from actual people tested for the disease. Italy and Iran are driving the fatality number way up right now as the people diagnosed are severe cases.
> 
> Over time we'll see that number drop as more people are tested. That will get us closer to WHO Case Fatality Rate that's been published from research in Chinsa.
> 
> Actual mortality rate will take years of antibody surveys. That's when we'll get true comparison to historic pathogens. It's probably going to be less than 2% and closer to 1%. Still ten times higher than seasonal influenza but not wild.
> 
> We also need to recognize as China diminishes lock downs that they'll eventually see numbers climb again. It's inevitable. They'll be better prepared and be able to control it easier but they won't be able to fully stop the spread completely. Their numbers will be in the hundreds of thousands if not tens of millions by end of 2020, roughly a year anniversary. They just bought time.
> 
> This virus and disease is with us until spring of 2021.
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah I use that site also.. I just am looking at the TOTAL since that is the most relevant. Especially considering the "closed case" is the early on limited testing and deaths.
> 
> I would just say if you are going to point to the 9%, it helps to be very clear about that.
Click to expand...

I can do better and appreciate the feedback. Tried to clarify with "active cases" but should clarify 9% is actually closer cases, which are heavily skewed. Obviously missed the mark on that.


----------



## Vanilla

On to the things that worry me about this virus:

1- I worry about my 69 year old mother with MS and my 97 year old grandmother. The MS diagnosis doesn’t scare me much. She was diagnosed 25 years ago, has never taken a med, and is healthy. But her immune system seems to be terrible. She seems to need weeks to fight off every little bug she gets. Losing either of these ladies would be crushing to me. 

2- I worry that the economy is going to bury people in a way they can’t climb out. Part of me wonders how this downturn could effect my own employment, but I’m “probably” okay. (Whatever that means???) 

3- I worry about some of the responsibilities I currently have to look out for other people. I won’t go into too much detail about that, but this is what keeps me up at night. 

4- I worry that someone way crazier than Oli is going to lose his mind and become very dangerous. I haven’t focused too much on some of his comments as I didn’t want to draw unnecessary attention, but some of them were not just irresponsible, but flat out dangerous. I worry that they would appear completely sane compared to some other people out there, and I worry what those people are capable of in uncertain times like these. 

I don’t worry that we won’t make it through this. I know we will. I don’t worry about dying myself, or even getting sick. I don’t worry about my own financial situation, even if I don’t know how it will work out. I’m optimistic and have not fretted too much about all that is going on. I’m reasonably prepared to deal with this, unless things just go completely off the rails and then we’d be in trouble. I’m going to Dallan’s house if that happens. 

The biggest thing is I hope this helps people to be more mindful of their own and other people’s situations. Let’s “try a little harder to be a little better.” Let’s be good neighbors and good community members. Let’s watch out for ourselves and for each other. Things have become so toxic in our society. Maybe this is the universe’s way to cleanse that and bring us back a little closer together.


----------



## Bax*

Just wanted to share this life hack


----------



## backcountry

Bax* said:


> Just wanted to share this life hack


Day 13: My wife is confused in finding me outside at 6 am without pants on, 35 degrees , on a "seatless" chair with a thousand mile stare. Breakfast was awkward.


----------



## backcountry

Anybody else watching the sites to see when the odometer trips over to 200k? That's always a big moment for my trucks. Hope the world has done better preventative maintenance than my truck gets. If not, only another 50k plus before we should trade up. 

😬☹


----------



## High Desert Elk

backcountry said:


> Could you clarify/explain? Sincerely curious as I don't fully understand the comment.


It was more important to pursue an idiotic impeachement sham than to be proactive and start talking about the importance of preparation for the inevitable impact we are now in. All blue state governments sat and watched how it was going to unfold. International travel alerts and restrictions should have been paid attention to long ago. Test kits should've been a top list topic months ago...


----------



## Vanilla

Now earthquakes. I blame the bankers. They’ve got it all planned out!


----------



## PBH

hmmm.....first a virus, now earthquakes.


All that talk about utilities continuing to operate. I should have been buying water and toilet paper all along.

I give up.


----------



## PBH

Dr. Peter Venkman said:


> This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.





Mayor said:


> What do you mean, "biblical"?





Dr. Raymond Stantz said:


> What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath-of-God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the sky! Rivers and seas boiling!





Dr. Egon Spengler said:


> Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...





Winston Zeddmore said:


> The dead rising from the grave!





Dr. Peter Venkman said:


> Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together - MASS HYSTERIA!


pretty prophetic.


----------



## Vanilla




----------



## Badin

Anymore end of times prophecies?
Maybe revisit some of the winners from y2k.


----------



## brisket

PBH said:


> Dr. Peter Venkman said:
> 
> 
> 
> This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mayor said:
> 
> 
> 
> What do you mean, "biblical"?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dr. Raymond Stantz said:
> 
> 
> 
> What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath-of-God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the sky! Rivers and seas boiling!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dr. Egon Spengler said:
> 
> 
> 
> Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Winston Zeddmore said:
> 
> 
> 
> The dead rising from the grave!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dr. Peter Venkman said:
> 
> 
> 
> Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together - MASS HYSTERIA!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> pretty prophetic.
Click to expand...

LOL!


----------



## Vanilla

PBH, if I see one locust today I'm going to lose my mind!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


>


Between pandemic's and now earthquakes, there's going to be someone, somewhere, who thinks the end of the world is really near. All we need now is some locusts and some evangelicals on a street corner holding a sign telling us the rapture is coming.


----------



## PBH

Lone_Hunter said:


> Between pandemic's and now earthquakes, there's going to be someone, somewhere, who thinks the end of the world is really near. All we need now is some locusts and some evangelicals on a street corner holding a sign telling us the rapture is coming.


well.....Moroni's trumpet came crashing down!

I'll be that person: the end is nigh!


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> PBH, if I see one locust today I'm going to lose my mind!


That should be a completely different thread and topic... but holy crap has anyone seen the current locust swarms sweeping across africa? Devouring what little food that had. I was following it until the Corona thing broke out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-51618188

The world really is going to crap.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Lone_Hunter said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Between pandemic's and now earthquakes, there's going to be someone, somewhere, who thinks the end of the world is really near. All we need now is some locusts and some evangelicals on a street corner holding a sign telling us the rapture is coming.
Click to expand...

Given they shutdown the Strip, there are some bored end times evangelicals looking to take their sandwich boards elsewhere.

I wonder if they really closed down the Strip when they realized the Bellagio Fountains were one big, free bidet.


----------



## willfish4food

That's super sad for countries that already struggle with poverty and finding adequate food. Kind of gross by our pallet, but aren't locusts edible? Maybe they should be harvesting this bounty of protein and putting it to good use.


----------



## DallanC

willfish4food said:


> That's super sad for countries that already struggle with poverty and finding adequate food. Kind of gross by our pallet, but aren't locusts edible? Maybe they should be harvesting this bounty of protein and putting it to good use.


Yea I was thinking if you are OK eating locusts, its a bountiful time. /barf

-DallanC


----------



## DallanC

Ya'all keep your eyes on the sky... next up will be a Tornado in SLC, followed by massive early heatwave and state street turning into a river for the 3rd time.

We should start a betting pool on what disaster is the "final straw" to doom us all lol

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

PBH said:


> well.....Moroni's trumpet came crashing down!
> 
> I'll be that person: the end is nigh!


Here you go.

And the *angel* took the censer, and filled it with fire of the altar, and *cast it into the earth*: and there were voices, and thunderings, and lightnings, and an *earthquake.*

Rev 8:5.


----------



## caddis8

We're expecting a blizzard out here. Spring blizzards are always interesting. We can get hail, tornadoes, and then snow. 

I'll take hail and tornado over earthquake. 

Crazy times. No confirmed cases out here, and by definition, I practice social distancing every day working from home. No real disruption to me. But it will hit here at some point. Large elderly population in the area, and that could get dicey. But there are some very tough folks out here.


----------



## Catherder

And since you all mentioned it....................................

https://kutv.com/news/local/mormon-crickets-reported-early-this-year-posing-threats


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Catherder said:


> And since you all mentioned it....................................
> 
> https://kutv.com/news/local/mormon-crickets-reported-early-this-year-posing-threats


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> And since you all mentioned it...................................
> 
> https://kutv.com/news/local/mormon-crickets-reported-early-this-year-posing-threats


That's it.

*I'M OUT!!!! *


----------



## johnnycake

I just need giant sinkholes and I've got apocalypse bingo!

Come on South America!


----------



## caddis8

One of the most interesting (if you want to call it that) is the tumble of crude oil price. Lots of factors at play, but a TON of upside and downside.

Upside will be anticipated cheap fuel. That's about it. Agricultural prices could be affected, and farmers may make more margin, but prices on the commodity side aren't holding. Cost of inputs should decrease, but farm income has been pressured for a while. 

Russia and OPEC got into a tiff and Saudi Arabia increased production because they can operate on much lower prices.

Downside, huge economic headwinds for US. Fracking companies can't produce profitably at those prices. This will result in layoffs and unemployment will increase. I keep thinking I'll see a bottom, and I read one report where oil could actually have negative value, meaning producers will have to pay someone to take it. 

Oversupply could and probably will linger for a while.


----------



## Catherder

johnnycake said:


> I just need giant sinkholes and I've got apocalypse bingo!
> 
> Come on South America!


I need giant meteorite.


----------



## johnnycake

Catherder said:


> I need giant meteorite.


I foolishly placed that in the wrong corner


----------



## brisket

caddis8 said:


> One of the most interesting (if you want to call it that) is the tumble of crude oil price. Lots of factors at play, but a TON of upside and downside.
> 
> Upside will be anticipated cheap fuel. That's about it. Agricultural prices could be affected, and farmers may make more margin, but prices on the commodity side aren't holding. Cost of inputs should decrease, but farm income has been pressured for a while.
> 
> Russia and OPEC got into a tiff and Saudi Arabia increased production because they can operate on much lower prices.
> 
> Downside, huge economic headwinds for US. Fracking companies can't produce profitably at those prices. This will result in layoffs and unemployment will increase. I keep thinking I'll see a bottom, and I read one report where oil could actually have negative value, meaning producers will have to pay someone to take it.
> 
> Oversupply could and probably will linger for a while.


Crazy economic times. Lots of gas being sold along the Wasatch Front today. Generators and gas cans all sold out. There was a line at the hardware store topping off propane in the rain this morning as well.


----------



## PBH

once again....I'm dragging my feet. 

I guess I'll head to the gas station this evening to get my cans filled.



It's snowing outside. Blizzard going to shut everything down next??


----------



## brisket

PBH said:


> once again....I'm dragging my feet.
> 
> I guess I'll head to the gas station this evening to get my cans filled.
> 
> It's snowing outside. Blizzard going to shut everything down next??


I had one that needed to be filled. My new bidet is electric, so I need to make sure I can run the generator in case the power goes out. Priorities!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Word on the street is that the earthquake did some damage to the kennecott refinery and they have to shut it down, so gas might be limited very soon. 

We've just topped off all our vehicles and filled what jerry cans we have. Usually there isn't a line at the gas station at little acorn (I think it's cause the owner is an ass), but there was today. I went there specifically because it would be less used since it's on the edge of town, well, it's being well used now.


----------



## Fowlmouth

Fowlmouth said:


> I'm guessing gasoline rations aren't too far off. This would be one way to keep people home.....Keep your tanks full....


Anyone been to the gas stations today? There are lines, probably because of the earthquake, but I'll say again....Fill your tanks!


----------



## Catherder

Has anyone checked on Oli today?


----------



## DallanC

There was a huge run on generators this morning due to the earthquake. I had put $100 down on a new Honda yesterday... amazing timing all things considered. Honda has a recall on them, but Monarch called me to say "come get it NOW, we'll fix it later when parts come in". Wife is down in that area and is getting it shortly.

-DallanC


----------



## RandomElk16

It's times like these I am glad I turned into my father. Every wall in our garage is lined the length with steel industrial shelving loaded with ****. My wife thinks we have too many of everything and a bunch of stuff we won't use. 

Installed a new toilet a few weeks back and when I bought it I forgot to get the reinforced wax ring (ones they come with suck). I then said "Oh you know I think I have one in the garage" and snagged a bin and there it was. Don't even know how I remembered or why I had a spare but it prompted me to call my dad and let him know I officially turned into him lol.


I share all this because we live in a time with a bunch of soft men who have clean garages with bare walls. In times like this I remember why I become a clutter butt with the "might need that later" and have probably 15 red gas cans and some diesel cans, oil, generators, too many outdoor camping things, and on and on.... 

I might need to hit the store just cuz.. but if a worse one had happened I would have been accidentally prepared. That's a good feeling.


----------



## Kwalk3

Lone_Hunter said:


> Word on the street is that the earthquake did some damage to the kennecott refinery and they have to shut it down, so gas might be limited very soon.
> 
> We've just topped off all our vehicles and filled what jerry cans we have. Usually there isn't a line at the gas station at little acorn (I think it's cause the owner is an ass), but there was today. I went there specifically because it would be less used since it's on the edge of town, well, it's being well used now.


I know there is a leak somewhere at Kennecott, but this was posted an hour ago specifically about refineries.









Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Kwalk3 said:


> I know there is a leak somewhere at Kennecott, but this was posted an hour ago specifically about refineries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Sweet, glad to see that. Last thing we need is a gas shortage.

In other news, apparently there's a run on the guns and ammo now too.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-firearms-ammunitions-sales

Yep, we saw that one coming. Got my own parts order in a bit late maybe. :roll:


----------



## RandomElk16

Lone_Hunter said:


> Sweet, glad to see that. Last thing we need is a gas shortage.
> 
> In other news, apparently there's a run on the guns and ammo now too.
> https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-firearms-ammunitions-sales
> 
> Yep, we saw that one coming. Got my own parts order in a bit late maybe. :roll:


We self sabotage. It's ridiculous.


----------



## Vanilla

I don’t mean to be rude here, and I’m really not trying to be offensive, but I feel it needs to be said. Have we noticed that the “I heard.....” doom and gloom comments are all coming from the same people? I’m not calling any one of them dishonest or accusing anyone of making it up here, as I have no doubt these things are getting spread, but man, some really need to check the circles they’re getting their news! 

The freaking South Weber Fire Department shared the “they are predicting an even stronger quake within the next two hours, get prepared” crap info from this morning. While I will always applaud people trying to help others out, the one thing I wish is people would do is verify their panic inducing retweets, texts, and posts across social media (which I consider this forum social media now) before hitting post/send. 

It only takes a couple more minutes to search around and verify. But the “I heard....(insert whatever here) stuff with no documentation or verification is what is causing 30 people deep lines at the gas station. Do we even know which gas stations in Utah even utilize the local refineries on the Wasatch Front? 

We really ought to be doing our best to instill calm in those around us, not incite fear. Fear is a weapon to establish control and that causes destruction. Be wary of anyone using fear as a tactic, regardless of who or where it’s being used. I’m not saying life is all unicorns and rainbows, and if there is bad news, let’s talk about it openly. But the rumor mill of fear has grown tired with me and we are only a couple weeks into this mess! 

Okay, off my soapbox now. Dang, I really need to go fishing.


----------



## caddis8

I actually got a text yesterday I believe on the "Trump is going to enact Stafford Act which is the nationwide quarantine...." I was asked to send it to our employees, which I did. Then it wasn't true. Caused panick.


----------



## Vanilla

caddis8 said:


> I actually got a text yesterday I believe on the "Trump is going to enact Stafford Act which is the nationwide quarantine...." I was asked to send it to our employees, which I did. Then it wasn't true. Caused panick.


A great example. A quick search would have shown that isn't even what the Stafford Act is about. We all are susceptible to this stuff. I've been had numerous times on stuff over the years. But we have resources to verify this stuff, we just have to use them.

Calm preparedness is what we're going for here. I'm definitely NOT discouraging preparedness. Let's just do it in a way that doesn't disrupt our entire system.


----------



## PBH

sorry Vanilla. I'll stop.


----------



## Iron Bear

You know this is all happening because the legislator passed HB 206. 🤓


----------



## Vanilla

PBH said:


> sorry Vanilla. I'll stop.


Yeah, you are just a YUUUGE problem!!!


----------



## brisket

Sportsman’s is almost sold out of handgun ammo. .223/5.56 is completely gone. I was hoping it was just Utah and the earthquake, but lots of online dealers are selling out too.


----------



## middlefork

Glad I stocked up a year or so ago.

Secret, aimed fire is more effective than spray and pray.

I heard my wife tell the story of her friends office who's boss bought everyone a Tazer. I had to laugh.


----------



## brisket

Tazers are awesome.


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> I don't mean to be rude here, and I'm really not trying to be offensive, but I feel it needs to be said. Have we noticed that the "I heard....." doom and gloom comments are all coming from the same people? I'm not calling any one of them dishonest or accusing anyone of making it up here, as I have no doubt these things are getting spread, but man, some really need to check the circles they're getting their news!
> 
> The freaking South Weber Fire Department shared the "they are predicting an even stronger quake within the next two hours, get prepared" crap info from this morning. While I will always applaud people trying to help others out, the one thing I wish is people would do is verify their panic inducing retweets, texts, and posts across social media (which I consider this forum social media now) before hitting post/send.
> 
> It only takes a couple more minutes to search around and verify. But the "I heard....(insert whatever here) stuff with no documentation or verification is what is causing 30 people deep lines at the gas station. Do we even know which gas stations in Utah even utilize the local refineries on the Wasatch Front?
> 
> We really ought to be doing our best to instill calm in those around us, not incite fear. Fear is a weapon to establish control and that causes destruction. Be wary of anyone using fear as a tactic, regardless of who or where it's being used. I'm not saying life is all unicorns and rainbows, and if there is bad news, let's talk about it openly. But the rumor mill of fear has grown tired with me and we are only a couple weeks into this mess!
> 
> Okay, off my soapbox now. Dang, I really need to go fishing.


Do we live that close???

Yeah the media jumped RIGHT on the "9.0 quake", then 97.1 had some guy on who misspoke multiple times.

A guy that works for me worked in journalism for 20+ years and I love his rants about it being dead and "fast to press, fix it later" tangents. He hates what it's become, like we all do. There is a different passion that comes from someone who used to have a profession they had a sense of pride and responsibility in. I don't enjoy him being upset, but I do enjoy his trash talk about the news now.


----------



## backcountry

McAdams 2nd member of Congress diagnosed. Anybody else wondering what happens to Congress if the spreads through society. Alk, joking aside, their demographics don't bode well with Covid-19.

Though, it looks like data out of European countries and CDC is showing a higher number of patients below the age of 65 than analysis out China predicted.


----------



## DallanC

My coworker just texted me that he is super sick with chest cough, chills, fever etc etc. Now his 3 month old baby has it too... he's called several hospitals and they wont even test him for Covid19. 

They said to stay home just "wait it out". W T F ...


-DallanC


----------



## KineKilla

I know of two groups of people that think they likely have the virus. They've both been told that they don't qualify for testing. 

Not sure what it takes to qualify but apparently lawmakers, movie stars and athletes are not having a problem.

I find it strange how the majority of Americans are out spending as much as they can on food, fuel, ammo, guns, etc. and yet our economy is tanking. 

Also, if people can afford a year's worth of stuff all at once then why are we considering sending them more $ to pay their bills? Send me $1,000 and I still won't be able to find TP or hand sanitizer at the store.

*end rant


----------



## Catherder

It's hard to know exactly what is going on right now. Today, I had a lengthy discussion with one of my former employees who is now a supervisory nurse in one of the major hospitals in Utah county. She said that they haven't had a covid 19 admission yet and haven't had a radical change in their routine either. They have treated some respiratory patients, but they have had RSV or influenza. They have been taking the precautions discussed in the media.

The continued lack of available testing remains a massive black eye in the government response to the pandemic.


----------



## Fowlmouth

brisket said:


> Tazers are awesome.


. Don't bring a Tazer to a gun fight. &#129325;


----------



## brisket

Fowlmouth said:


> . Don't bring a Tazer to a gun fight. &#129325;


Of course, but a lot of situations can be better resolved with non-lethal force. The legal aftermath is far better than shooting someone. Carry both.


----------



## backcountry

Anybody else wondering when people are going to get tired of eating ramen and canned beans? How much of their paychecks did people spend on items they won't eat the next 3 weeks?

My household has plenty of those at any given time as well but we've been cramming in fresh veggies and fruit. I figure we'll have plenty of time to supplement with the rice and beans storage we have. Might as well enjoy healthy, vitamin rich foods now. Best case is we just eat better. Worst case is we are enjoying something that could be less available for a while. 

But eating ramen for many meals doesn't bode well for health or morale.


----------



## BGD

Some of the reports I have Indicate that testing is not as much limited by the number of tests available as it is the PPE and masks. As such, if someone is having mild symptoms they are told to treat at home, assume they have it, and isolate.


----------



## Vanilla

BGD said:


> Some of the reports I have Indicate that testing is not as much limited by the number of tests available as it is the PPE and masks. As such, if someone is having mild symptoms they are told to treat at home, assume they have it, and isolate.


This is absolutely part of it, but lack of test kits is still an issue. It's one that is going to be getting better in the next week though. Stay tuned. There are breakthroughs happening as we speak on the testing front. But lack of PPE is definitely a problem that needs to be addressed as well.


----------



## Vanilla

https://m.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/Italian-town-experiment-coronavirus-testing-Vo-15141033.php

Here is an example of what the benefit of more testing can do.


----------



## PBH

KineKilla said:


> I
> 
> Not sure what it takes to qualify but apparently lawmakers, movie stars and athletes are not having a problem.


This has really bugged me too. I can't figure it out. We have people getting tested with 0 symptoms, and yet normal working class people with symptoms are being told to stay home and wait it out.

Even NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has been upset with this, and blasting the Nets on Twitter for getting preferential treatment:



Bill de Blasio said:


> We wish them a speedy recovery, but, with all due respect, an entire NBA team should NOT get tested for COVID-19 while there are critically ill patients waiting to be tested. Tests should not be for the wealthy, but for the sick.


----------



## middlefork

How else are they going to shut down the NBA without testing positive?

Triage is a real thing. It happens all the time.


----------



## RandomElk16

KineKilla said:


> I find it strange how the majority of Americans are out spending as much as they can on food, fuel, ammo, guns, etc. and yet our economy is tanking.


We put too much into the guys in suits doing cocaine on wall street.

As far as sales, our economy isn't down. In fact, they were reporting even larger reductions in welfare apps when this started. We will see where it goes.

I won't say what I sell, but we have an inventory issue if anything. Sales are booming (and our products aren't cheap). We also are hiring.

I am a small sample size, but I wouldn't say the economy is tanking - the "market" is tanking. Cash hoarders. The second they call this done expect a crap load of buy low.


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> How else are they going to shut down the NBA without testing positive?
> 
> Triage is a real thing. It happens all the time.


They only needed the earlier test to justify the closing. No benefit to society to keep testing a bunch of young, healthy individuals with looser protocol than the rest of us now. They have the wealth to weather this just fine and should be stepping up as role models and being more communitarian.

Their access to private testing is actually a break down of basic triage. They should have all gone home and self-quarantined unless they were showing signs of significant medical distress. Those who need these tests are high risk individuals not a bunch of guys in their 20s and 30s at peak health.

But money buys access even during national emergencies. Nothing new about that.


----------



## Vanilla

The testing of NBA teams doesn’t bother me any more than Ben McAdams. I don’t know if he was any more needing it than any of the NBA players. Reality is everyone needs to get tested. I know it’s pipe dream, but one a dare to dream.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> They only needed the earlier test to justify the closing. No benefit to society to keep testing a bunch of young, healthy individuals with looser protocol than the rest of us now. They have the wealth to weather this just fine and should be stepping up as role models and being more communitarian.
> 
> Their access to private testing is actually a break down of basic triage. They should have all gone home and self-quarantined unless they were showing signs of significant medical distress. Those who need these tests are high risk individuals not a bunch of guys in their 20s and 30s at peak health.
> 
> But money buys access even during national emergencies. Nothing new about that.


The NBA had all the players quarantine anyways... So they aren't interacting with fans and such. So to your point, why test people with no symptoms?

I posted that right after the Jazz incident. "We have no tests" *Tests two full NBA teams and their staff*. AND they had results in 4 hours. They skipped any type of line, or the initial results period was a lie. Hell Trump waited more than 4 hours.


----------



## Catherder

An article on why continued testing is important.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-still-need-to-test-widely-for-coronavirus/


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> They only needed the earlier test to justify the closing. No benefit to society to keep testing a bunch of young, healthy individuals with looser protocol than the rest of us now. They have the wealth to weather this just fine and should be stepping up as role models and being more communitarian.
> 
> Their access to private testing is actually a break down of basic triage. They should have all gone home and self-quarantined unless they were showing signs of significant medical distress. Those who need these tests are high risk individuals not a bunch of guys in their 20s and 30s at peak health.
> 
> But money buys access even during national emergencies. Nothing new about that.
> 
> 
> 
> The NBA had all the players quarantine anyways... So they aren't interacting with fans and such. So to your point, why test people with no symptoms?
> 
> I posted that right after the Jazz incident. "We have no tests" *Tests two full NBA teams and their staff*. AND they had results in 4 hours. They skipped any type of line, or the initial results period was a lie. Hell Trump waited more than 4 hours.
Click to expand...

Agree. It was a waste of testing and PPE which is reportedly scarce. We shouldn't be testing people without symptoms until everyone with symptom's needs are met first. Especially since those infected will need to be tested multiple times before they can be released.

And to be honest, we are weeks or more from be able to test every American. And there is good reason to hesitate on testing the asymptomatic until we have a ton of extra tests (for same reasons highlighted above).

I'm more inclined to have Congress tested if exposed or mildly symptomatic than celebrities or athletes. As much as I dislike it, we need a functional Congress during a national crisis. And having McAdams separated from all those older members helps maintain continuity of that branch of government. But that's a nuance that's really not important yet.

Disasters tend to expose the range of inequalities of society. That's true wether it's a hurricane like Katrina or a novel virus. None of this is shocking even if it's ridiculous.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> I'm more inclined to have Congress tested if exposed or mildly symptomatic than celebrities or athletes. As much as I dislike it, we need a functional Congress during a national crisis. And having McAdams separated from all those older members helps maintain continuity of that branch of government. But that's a nuance that's really not important yet.


In theory you are absolutely correct. But as I've watched the last two weeks it sure feels like rich people in the private sector (whether celebrity status or not) are doing more for every day needs, and particularly testing (and even PPE) than Congress is doing. I'm with them!

Prove me wrong, Congress. I'd be pleasantly surprised and thankful if you did.


----------



## KineKilla

backcountry said:


> I'm more inclined to have Congress tested if exposed or mildly symptomatic than celebrities or athletes. As much as I dislike it, *we need a functional Congress* during a national crisis. And having McAdams separated from all those older members helps maintain continuity of that branch of government. But that's a nuance that's really not important yet.


Umm....show me where our congress was "functional" at any time in recent history, ie. the last 8 years or so.

Personally, I feel that if a care giver that is looking after or even living with older citizens is feeling symptomatic they should be given the option of a test way before any healthy middle aged person that has the option to self-quarantine.

These people will pose the greatest threat to the "high risk" groups and will contribute to the community spread to those sensitive age groups.


----------



## backcountry

KineKilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm more inclined to have Congress tested if exposed or mildly symptomatic than celebrities or athletes. As much as I dislike it, *we need a functional Congress* during a national crisis. And having McAdams separated from all those older members helps maintain continuity of that branch of government. But that's a nuance that's really not important yet.
> 
> 
> 
> Umm....show me where our congress was "functional" at any time in recent history, ie. the last 8 years or so.
> 
> Personally, I feel that if a care giver that is looking after or even living with older citizens is feeling symptomatic they should be given the option of a test way before any healthy middle aged person that has the option to self-quarantine.
> 
> These people will pose the greatest threat to the "high risk" groups and will contribute to the community spread to those sensitive age groups.
Click to expand...

Different definition of functional. They did just pass the bill for coronavirus, despite regular dysfunction and negative partisanship. We'll see if they can continue to get past partisan rancor. You find me being an apologist for their dysfunction though.

Hopefully its never needed but we need a functional Congress to navigate legislation if something else happens or Covid-19 keeps throwing curveballs.

Vanilla is right though, the generosity of private citizens, including athletes, has been inspiring during this challenging moment.


----------



## caddis8

Vanilla said:


> A great example. A quick search would have shown that isn't even what the Stafford Act is about. We all are susceptible to this stuff. I've been had numerous times on stuff over the years. But we have resources to verify this stuff, we just have to use them.
> 
> Calm preparedness is what we're going for here. I'm definitely NOT discouraging preparedness. Let's just do it in a way that doesn't disrupt our entire system.


I validated after, which is what caused the recant. It came from my boss's brother who still has connections in DC, which appeared to be credible....then as I read Stafford Act.

I did not send it to the other councils I am part of until I could research veracity. It did not go out to those.


----------



## backcountry

Sadly, Italy has anything but stabilized the situation. Looks like they are still experiencing exponential growth. Scary numbers and stories today. They are having to use military caravans to deal with the number of coffins.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Trying not to be scared but hard not to feel some pangs of it with all the idiotic college students running around Florida and other beaches. Fingers crossed we tamp this down despite such selfishness.


----------



## DallanC

One thing that really stands out to me when viewing the numbers charts, is the difference in "Infected" and "Recovered". It looks like its taking a HUGE amount of time to recover once infected.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> One thing that really stands out to me when viewing the numbers charts, is the difference in "Infected" and "Recovered". It looks like its taking a HUGE amount of time to recover once infected.
> 
> -DallanC


Severe cases often need 2+ weeks in ICU, which doesn't include time in other hospital beds. Hospitals in NY, WA and CA are in trouble if they don't have luck with shelter in place orders.

Florida would have been smart to implement bans on group gatherings last week before spring break kicked in


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> Sadly, Italy has anything but stabilized the situation. Looks like they are still experiencing exponential growth. Scary numbers and stories today. They are having to use military caravans to deal with the number of coffins.
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
> 
> Trying not to be scared but hard not to feel some pangs of it with all the idiotic college students running around Florida and other beaches. Fingers crossed we tamp this down despite such selfishness.









DallanC said:


> One thing that really stands out to me when viewing the numbers charts, is the difference in "Infected" and "Recovered". It looks like its taking a HUGE amount of time to recover once infected.
> 
> -DallanC


I noticed that too. Meanwhile, i'll be keeping it locked down in this metaphorical bunker for the next couple of weeks for whatever good it will do.









Tongue in cheek humor, I'm poking fun at myself.

In other news, the run on the gun stores is, according to this guy, bigger then sandy hook.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Sadly, Italy has anything but stabilized the situation. Looks like they are still experiencing exponential growth. Scary numbers and stories today. They are having to use military caravans to deal with the number of coffins.
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
> 
> Trying not to be scared but hard not to feel some pangs of it with all the idiotic college students running around Florida and other beaches. Fingers crossed we tamp this down despite such selfishness.


It is puzzling to me why Italy is having much worse statistics than other countries. I'm sure demographics has something to do with it, but I wonder if there is more to it? Maybe that it hit them hard and fast reduded the efficacy of their healthcare system in pulling borderline cases through?

And agreed on the spring break crowd.


----------



## Catherder

Another thing that has me shaking my head.

https://kutv.com/news/local/18-rura...vernor-to-return-to-normalcy-amid-coronavirus

Not unexpected from the 435 however.


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> One thing that really stands out to me when viewing the numbers charts, is the difference in "Infected" and "Recovered". It looks like its taking a HUGE amount of time to recover once infected.
> 
> -DallanC


One thing to keep in mind with that is the different criteria used to define "recovered". The CDC apparently recently changed the criteria for that which allowed the early St. George patient to finally be declared recovered (yesterday) and out of quarantine, even though he has been asymptomatic for weeks.


----------



## PBH

Catherder said:


> Another thing that has me shaking my head.
> 
> https://kutv.com/news/local/18-rura...vernor-to-return-to-normalcy-amid-coronavirus
> 
> Not unexpected from the 435 however.


I saw that yesterday, and was shaking my head too....

us hicks are still in da nile.

If you ask me -- this is just a ploy to expand the size of the Grand Staircase again.


----------



## brisket

It's officially a misdemeanor to gather in groups larger than 10 in SL County.

https://slco.org/globalassets/1-site-files/health/programs/covid/pho.pdf


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Sadly, Italy has anything but stabilized the situation. Looks like they are still experiencing exponential growth. Scary numbers and stories today. They are having to use military caravans to deal with the number of coffins.
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
> 
> Trying not to be scared but hard not to feel some pangs of it with all the idiotic college students running around Florida and other beaches. Fingers crossed we tamp this down despite such selfishness.
> 
> 
> 
> It is puzzling to me why Italy is having much worse statistics than other countries. I'm sure demographics has something to do with it, but I wonder if there is more to it? Maybe that it hit them hard and fast reduded the efficacy of their healthcare system in pulling borderline cases through?
> 
> And agreed on the spring break crowd.
Click to expand...

Likely demographics mixed with lax early response. The virus has already been spread significantly before the lockdowns.

If I understand the data correctly the US is actually experiencing a more severe curve. Part of that could be differences in testing but we are already outpacing their progression.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> If I understand the data correctly the US is actually experiencing a more severe curve. Part of that could be differences in testing but we are already outpacing their progression.


That is very possible, but from what I've read, our fatalities haven't been as bad and have been concentrated in clusters of the (traditionally) most susceptible, like the Kirkland nursing home residents.


----------



## Catherder

More possible advances in treatment as well.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapo...-drug-used-treat-cats-race-find-covid-19-cure

Some of these drugs, along with the anti malarial drug chloroquine could really help the most vulnerable. All the more reason to try and prevent cases now.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/remde...id=clicksource_4380645_4_three_posts_card_hed


----------



## Vanilla

brisket said:


> It's officially a misdemeanor to gather in groups larger than 10 in SL County.
> 
> https://slco.org/globalassets/1-site-files/health/programs/covid/pho.pdf


Update: It *USED* to be a misdemeanor. The governor repealed the actions shortly afterward.


----------



## brisket

Big company-wide layoff today. I made it through, but we lost some great people. What a time to loose a job! Friggin' coronavirus!


----------



## Vanilla

brisket said:


> Big company-wide layoff today. I made it through, but we lost some great people. What a time to loose a job! Friggin' coronavirus!


This breaks my heart. Just crushing. I'm sorry to hear it.


----------



## Critter

It's times like this when a person needs that 6 month cushion in the bank 

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## Fowlmouth

brisket said:


> Big company-wide layoff today. I made it through, but we lost some great people. What a time to loose a job! Friggin' coronavirus!


Man that just sucks to hear. I still can't believe our country went from a thriving economy, raging stock market and the lowest unemployment rate in years to this $hit mess we're having in a weeks time. Glad to hear your still working.


----------



## CPAjeff

brisket said:


> Big company-wide layoff today. I made it through, but we lost some great people. What a time to loose a job! Friggin' coronavirus!


Yikes man, that sucks. Glad to hear you made it through.


----------



## johnnycake

brisket said:


> Big company-wide layoff today. I made it through, but we lost some great people. What a time to loose a job! Friggin' coronavirus!


Oof. Anchorage just issued a "hunker down" aka shelter in place order starting Sunday at 10pm. Glad my office spent the past month and a half working to get everybody including the receptionist set up to work remotely.

I told my tenants last week that April rent was just going to be whatever they are comfortable paying and we'll figure it out later. There's at least one high risk individual in each of my tenants families, plus mine. Like I said in my first post on this thread, it has been and will continue to be interesting to see this play out.


----------



## backcountry

brisket said:


> Big company-wide layoff today. I made it through, but we lost some great people. What a time to loose a job! Friggin' coronavirus!


Sorry to hear it but hope you continue to be spared. Tough watching this play out across the country and world. I give my wife's employer a 50/50 chance of surviving the next 2 months. I know at least one friend whose been laid off in the last week but I would guess half my friends/family are in the service industry and are at risk for unemployment.

Best of luck everyone. Tough, unprecedented times ahead of us. I hope our communities are able to hold up and keep us covered.


----------



## Clarq

The church my parents go to suffered a break-in a few days ago. After a thorough sweep, everything was accounted for... except the toilet paper. O|*


----------



## olibooger

https://academic.oup.com/advances/article/10/4/696/5476413

Take it for what you will.

Spread the word


----------



## Jedidiah

Good call. I have some Zinc pills we really should be taking.


----------



## johnnycake

5 days, I'm impressed.


----------



## Jedidiah

5 days since you replied with something that wasn't borderline objectionable bumbum jokes? You're starting to remind me of that Tom Green show.


----------



## backcountry

US caseload is now third highest in world. We have already surpassed Italy's daily new confirmed cases despite being weeks behind them on starting point (I think measured at 100th patient??). Our exponential growth the next week to ten days will probably put us at the highest case load. 

Luckily our number of fatalities remains low compared to the other too countries. Will be interesting to see if that holds up with the rate of spread and hot zones like NY. Fingers crossed our younger median and average national age benefits us compared to Italy.


----------



## olibooger

Does anyone else see the Utah numbers rising about 25% per day? That would mean 9 days to get over 1,000 infected. I wonder what number, if any, Herbert follows suit with other states on lockdown. I really hope he doesn't. 😣


----------



## middlefork

I have to think that any reaction will be based on current trends and future predictions.

The goal is pretty simple - flatten the curve. So far the most effective way has been to self isolate. If people can't accept that as a common goal then yes at some point it is not out of the realm to expect more draconian actions.

How much people will accept or comply with is anyone's guess. A little thought can go a long way.


----------



## RandomElk16

"Flatten the curve" keeps getting said - there are 2000 cases. The virus has been here for 2 months (as of today actually). Small curve to flatten.

I'm still a skeptic I guess. Every 88 minutes a pedestrian is killed by a car in the US, so I am really trying to wrap my head around everything.


----------



## Vanilla

Random- I don’t think there is anything wrong with trying to keep this in perspective as far as risk. Not that I’m advocating pretending it isn’t a problem, but perspective is always good. We can’t stay in our homes forever. It won’t be long before markets and businesses (and therefore people) are harmed beyond repair. 

We’ve got to figure out what “phase 2” is and when it happens.


----------



## CPAjeff

Clarq said:


> The church my parents go to suffered a break-in a few days ago. After a thorough sweep, everything was accounted for... except the toilet paper. O|*


I think taking Jesus' TP is an unpardonable sin!


----------



## KineKilla

I'd be curious to see the ratio of tests taken to positive results. All I see is our total of confirmed cases.

Apparently by recommending limiting groups to 10 people, they feel that you have a 1/11 chance of being infected. Or our already infected population is roughly 10% ?

I've heard this virus has a 14 day incubation period. How many days are you contagious to others before you even start to feel symptoms and for how long after you stop feeling sick?


----------



## johnnycake

Jedidiah said:


> 5 days since you replied with something that wasn't borderline objectionable bumbum jokes? You're starting to remind me of that Tom Green show.


As always, you arrive with all the pleasantries and charm of a naked mole rat with a tooth absess. You must kill at parties. You deserve to squabble for your butt paper.

#makeUWNridiculousagain

KineKilla, several sources show that people can spread the virus for days up to a week before feeling any symptoms.


----------



## olibooger

Words cant describe how bad this is.

I've been silenced and am trying to remain silent.
🤦‍♂️🤐


----------



## johnnycake

olibooger said:


> I've been silenced and am trying to remain silent.
> &#129318;‍♂&#129296;


Because you've repeatedly said you were done posting in this thread and voluntarily offered to stop if enough people wanted you to?


----------



## backcountry

If I read the hospital report out of Seattle they believe they virus sheds itself and is contagious for 20 days on average. 

There is nothing minor about the curve we are seeing. Ours is the fastest spread of any nation so far and we have one of the least organized responses. If the math keeps up we could easily see a million confirmed cases in less than 3 weeks. But there are so many variables at play that it's hard to guesstimate outcomes anymore.

Safe to guess that we'll be leading the works in confirmed cases within 10 days though. Unless we get more organized with our response.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> If I read the hospital report out of Seattle they believe they virus sheds itself and is contagious for 20 days on average.
> 
> There is nothing minor about the curve we are seeing. Ours is the fastest spread of any nation so far and we have one of the least organized responses. If the math keeps up we could easily see a million confirmed cases in less than 3 weeks. But there are so many variables at play that it's hard to guesstimate outcomes anymore.
> 
> Safe to guess that we'll be leading the works in confirmed cases within 10 days though. Unless we get more organized with our response.


It's hard to gauge how quickly our confirmed case load vs actual cases due to our incredibly poor testing in the beginning, that is now taking up and coming online at a very high pace.

The delta between those two metrics is impossible to determine, but very important if you are wanting to understand if this is an inflated rapid rise or not.

Poop should never just be cleaned with paper. Just to not break tradition.


----------



## olibooger

johnnycake said:


> olibooger said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've been silenced and am trying to remain silent.
> &#129318;‍♂&#129296;
> 
> 
> 
> Because you've repeatedly said you were done posting in this thread and voluntarily offered to stop if enough people wanted you to?
Click to expand...

It's like the media saying Trump is a racist for calling it the Chinese virus. I call a spade a spade and people get offended. 
The truth is becoming unavoidable.

I offered to be quiet at others' feelings. Interesting thought. I was sounding the alarm because I care enough to and I offer to keep quiet, because I care enough to. O well.

Its all good. Time will tell why so many things are lining up the way they are.

I'll remain in my box. ✌

Haha, I even posted about zinc and you decided to be a smartass. LoL. Good luck fella


----------



## Vanilla

Oli, I don’t know which one of you is the real booger. Is it the “I’m freaking out and you all are morons for not listening?” Or is is the apologetic “I’ve been a total [email protected]$$ and I’m sorry. I should be better than this” booger”?

Which one of the two of your personalities should I be paying attention to the most?


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Safe to guess that we'll be leading the works in confirmed cases within 10 days though. Unless we get more organized with our response.


Total cases is a terrible metric to utilize to understand the problem, yet that is the only metric anyone is sharing or talking about. We're over 300,000 cases around the world as of this writing! Except how many of those are active? If 150,000 of them have recovered and are no longer "sick" why are we talking about them as a whole still?

And speaking of that: I've read the projections and know what they're saying just like you, backcountry. But I'm renewing my objection and question I asked last week about this. The world in about 2.5 months has 300,000 confirmed cases, yet in a week we're going to 1 million in the US? Maybe that is true, but only because of what I've been asking about since the beginning: true rates due to lack of testing. The fatality rate on this one is pegged so high when we aren't testing anyone in our state that doesn't check multiple boxes. I personally know multiple people that have multiple symptoms and were not allowed to be tested. And while I think our testing has been behind the curve, the country's response has not been. We stopped major events and encouraged (and in some places mandated) social distancing way ahead of schedule compared to many other countries. Travel restrictions were put in place earlier in our process than many other places. I just can't get why we keep hearing these "scary" numbers without context, and especially here numbers so astronomically different than everywhere else in the country.

I'm not trying to downplay this. We should be taking it seriously, but there comes a time when we have to return to rational thought and not just fear. We will accomplish more when our leaders are governing through rational thought and not just fear. And if we do return from fear to rational thought, we might just save our country from economic destruction before it's too late. Maybe.

We need to kick the fear to the curb. Let's start talking about this is rational ways. We need more than just "stay home until we tell you otherwise," and we need that very soon. People are talking about the possibility of 1 million confirmed cases by next week. Some are talking about 2.5-3 million layoffs THIS week!

I'll say it again: We need to figure out what phase 2 is, and fast.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,

Some of the US response has been ahead of the curve, some hasn't. Our federal response has steadily become pathetic. The ban on travel to/from China likely slowed the initial spread but has little bearing once cases are here. They haven't had an organized process since then and most efforts have been implemented independently by states or private organizations. I

To clarify, running the basic math is rational. Modeling is one of the few things we have during an outbreak. As such, those numbers were different than you summarized. My comment was we'd be leading the world in cases in roughly 10 days. If the math holds, and it might not, we could see 1 million cases stateside in less three weeks. That's just how exponential growth works. The numbers are going to naturally get much bigger and scarier at this point.

Potential flaws and biases have been highlighted by others, such as influence of inconsistent testing, etc. Other ones involve the reality that this virus has already mutated and the US is dealing with a different one than in Hubei. It'll likely mutate again and we could have different regions dealing with different strains, which complicates the modeling even more.

Closed case statistics are available but actually paint worse pictures. Closed cases display a mortality rate greater than 12%. The active cases display a dynamic environment in which severe cases loads (%) are actually dropping. 

Hard to know what "phase 2" will be when we haven't even fully finished Phase 1. Given we could still be another week + from seeing how "shelter in place" orders actually impacted transmission rates in California we really won't know what is next for a while. Expert opinion is wide ranging but it all largely agrees on the notion that social distancing or quarantine will likely need to continue through at least the beginning of May to matter at all. And then Phase 2 can be evaluated. 

A pandemic with a historical recession riding it's coat tails is going to continue to be devastating and challenge most of societal systems. We are still just in the midst of bracing for it while experts do their best to study it and build better solutions. But most of us just have to wait, likely for another 4-6 weeks. The common phrase I'm hearing is "this disease is more patient than we are."

PS....fear is fine and healthy, as long as it doesn't cripple us. It doesn't seem to be. Our governments and companies are still working hard to account for our new reality. I'm fearful for my household but we still are living day to day. We are prepared and continuing to adapt but not paralized. On that note, I'm going fishing for fun and under the notion that non-essential travel in Utah could eventually be banned and I doubt fishing will be considered essential.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Vanilla,
> 
> Some of the US response has been ahead of the curve, some hasn't. Our federal response has steadily become pathetic. When in history has something that caused less than 100 deaths been ruled a national emergency, had 4 states declare martial law, and locked down a country? I will wait for a reply lol. Our response has been of biblical proportions when compared to anything. The ban on travel to/from China likely slowed the initial spread but has little bearing once cases are here. They haven't had an organized process since then and most efforts have been implemented independently by states or private organizations. I
> 
> To clarify, running the basic math is rational. Modeling is one of the few things we have during an outbreak. As such, those numbers were different than you summarized. My comment was we'd be leading the world in cases in roughly 10 days. If the math holds, and it might not, we could see 1 million cases stateside in less three weeks. I keep hearing a week, then 10 days, then 2 weeks, then 3 weeks. It's been here for two months. So pick a start date and we will go from there. China had it a few months and saw 80K cases, with 1.4 Billion people yet we will hit 1 million cases in "X" weeks from "whatever date I say"?That's just how exponential growth works. The numbers are going to naturally get much bigger and scarier at this point.
> 
> Potential flaws and biases have been highlighted by others, such as influence of inconsistent testing, etc. Other ones involve the reality that this virus has already mutated and the US is dealing with a different one than in Hubei. It'll likely mutate again and we could have different regions dealing with different strains, which complicates the modeling even more.
> 
> Closed case statistics are available but actually paint worse pictures. Closed cases display a mortality rate greater than 12%. Closed cases, based on the modeling for infection rates you reference multiple times, ignore hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of healthy unconfirmed cases. The active cases display a dynamic environment in which severe cases loads (%) are actually dropping.
> 
> Hard to know what "phase 2" will be when we haven't even fully finished Phase 1. Given we could still be another week + from seeing how "shelter in place" orders actually impacted transmission rates in California we really won't know what is next for a while. Expert opinion is wide ranging but it all largely agrees on the notion that social distancing or quarantine will likely need to continue through at least the beginning of May to matter at allEven then its a virus. We just kissed our lives and freedom goodbye lol. Phase 2 will be worse than phase 1.. And then Phase 2 can be evaluated.
> 
> A pandemic with a historical recession riding it's coat tails is going to continue to be devastating and challenge most of societal systems. We are still just in the midst of bracing for it while experts do their best to study it and build better solutions. But most of us just have to wait, likely for another 4-6 weeks. The common phrase I'm hearing is "this disease is more patient than we are." They know so little yet tell us these things with certainty. It's like a CYA for a "told ya so" later on
> 
> PS....fear is fine and healthy, as long as it doesn't cripple us. It doesn't seem to be. Tell that to people that live with severe anxiety, those this has crippled. Tell that to those that lost their job. Tell that to those that lost their businesses. Those that lost their 401k. Stress is literally proven to be linked to a number of health issues, so I don't know that the word "healthy" fits in any way at all. Our governments and companies are still working hard to account for our new reality. I'm fearful for my household but we still are living day to day. We are prepared and continuing to adapt but not paralized. On that note, I'm going fishing for fun and under the notion that non-essential travel in Utah could eventually be banned and I doubt fishing will be considered essential.


I went extreme with my responses, based on how set in yours you were.

My favorite is the last paragraph "Our new reality". Is this really what we want for our new reality? Was this really the only option?

Why don't I trust experts? Because all this has shown us is none of them know what they are doing and it's all guess work. Models and predictions constantly change and in the end the narrative will fit whatever the result is in a positive way.


----------



## Packout

I predict the suicide rate will be as high or higher than the covid19 deaths. When some people see no future they check out. Many retirements and businesses have been destroyed by the response to the outbreak. The fear mongering media makes it worse. I tried watching the morning shows today only to find the dialogue was painfully inflammatory to fears and political. I have had both friends and clients express thoughts to me in the past week which show a true increase of depression.

The collateral damage to the response could be worse than the disease itself.

..


----------



## Clarq

Packout said:


> The collateral damage to the response could be worse than the disease itself.
> 
> ..


I've been thinking that ever since things started getting cancelled. I try to have faith in the experts... but I'm not yet convinced that what we've done to the economy is worth whatever benefit we've gained. Maybe my mind will change as the disease progresses these next few weeks.

In the meantime, I'm making an extra effort to support small business and keep the economy going.


----------



## Vanilla

There are multiple issues I have from above. 

Take any phased project in the world. You pick the topic, it doesn’t matter where or what it is. When does ANYONE wait to finish phase 1 before they start planning for phase 2? That never happens, at least not by anyone that wants to get anything actually done. Heck, most times phase 2 (and 3, and 4...) are planned out before you ever even begin phase 1. I realize that wasn’t an option here. But if our leaders are truly working as hard as they can on this and using the best and the brightest, there has to be a plan for phase 2. Even if we aren’t there yet, how about giving people a little hope? What is the plan? I’m telling you, if the best we have is “shelter in place and we’ll give you more details in 4-6 weeks,” then buckle up. The other reactions and impacts due to that will have exponentially worse results than the virus ever could have dreamed. 

Lastly, I do not believe fear is healthy. And this may be splitting hairs some, but fear is a weapon used by evil to control people. There are other words I’d prefer to use, because I view fear in a negative light personally. And if someone is using fear to try and motivate me, I will immediately question their motives. The subject matter is immaterial at that point. Why do they want to control me? What is the goal. 

Get rid of the fear. We can talk openly without fear mongering.


----------



## Critter




----------



## RandomElk16

A 60 year old from Davis County just passed away from the virus. They said he suffered from underlying health issues prior to contacting the disease. 

I think it's important to include those details, not to undermine the virus, but because reality is age and health issue increase our risks. I think those of you who have been through health things live for the moment more than most.

That's why I want all you ol geezers on here to go out with a rod 'n reel and enjoy yourselves! Life is short no matter how you look at it. I'm thankful for this forum and our shared passion of the outdoors.


----------



## CPAjeff

Fear is a monster that’ll destroy anything and everything! We’ve become too reliant on “proclaimed experts” to ease our fears. 

My life continues as normal - this isn’t the end of our economy, our way of life, or the world. We’ve become an over reactive society!


----------



## Vanilla

Critter said:


>


Only in Colorado...


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,

The fear comment is in relation to being rationally afraid a novel virus, not fear mongering for nefarious purposes. Fear heightens our awareness and senses. Its a rational response to danger. This isn't a new concept. And I believe many Americans are showing they are afraid enough yet and sadly it's likely to require a longer response and lead to more deaths.

Per "stages", we can't compare this to some type of business plan. We haven't had a novel virus causing global pandemic in ages. Step 2 is dependent on research and outcomes of Step 1 and we don't have enough information yet to plan accordingly. 

I get the frustration. I would say most of us are there. I'm going to continue to stay away from the standard partisan jabs we are seeing rip this country apart in the midst of the biggest crisis in decades. It's difficult to be in the midst of something so uncontrollable and without any real central leadership (ie there isn't a single expert capable of navigating us through this). I can't think of a way we could have been prepared for this as individual citizens.

But the only thing that currently seems to help is social distancing and we need to be encouraging people to keep that up. If we hope to reduce the number of potential deaths than we need to unite people behind that one thing in our control at the moment. We are only really three weeks into this as a nation; the ones flattening the curve are 2-3 months into it and they implemented much more severe measures. We need to be as communitarian and patient as those counties,if not more.


----------



## DallanC

All I know is I'm getting alot of projects done around the house. Finally finishing up a complete top-end rebuild of my dunes ATV. Fun stuff.


-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry,

To clarify: I’m not asking you to drop the fear. I’m asking our leaders to quit leading with it. I’m not worried about you controlling me or anyone else. But fear has to stop guiding the discussion (by the leaders and decision makers) and rational thought needs to take over. Rational thought may still lead to shutdowns and other drastic measures. But there has to be a plan. We can’t just shut down the entire country indefinitely hoping something miraculous happens with no plan for the next step. 

I’m sorry, I completely disagree we can’t be planning for the next step right now. If those in charge are not, that is a total failure on their part. 

Probably the trickiest part of this entire deal is deciding whose lives are more important. Do we do “everything necessary” to save 500, 1000, 10000 lives from the virus? Even if some of those means might cost millions of people everything, including up to their lives from other issues? The consequences of shutting down long term with no future plan are starting to become more visible on the horizon, and to be quite frank, worry me much more than the virus itself does. 

We’ve got to get a plan in place. We’re a ship without a rudder right now. That is not sustainable.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Vanilla,
> 
> Some of the US response has been ahead of the curve, some hasn't. Our federal response has steadily become pathetic. When in history has something that caused less than 100 deaths been ruled a national emergency, had 4 states declare martial law, and locked down a country? I will wait for a reply lol. Our response has been of biblical proportions when compared to anything. The ban on travel to/from China likely slowed the initial spread but has little bearing once cases are here. They haven't had an organized process since then and most efforts have been implemented independently by states or private organizations. I
> 
> To clarify, running the basic math is rational. Modeling is one of the few things we have during an outbreak. As such, those numbers were different than you summarized. My comment was we'd be leading the world in cases in roughly 10 days. If the math holds, and it might not, we could see 1 million cases stateside in less three weeks. I keep hearing a week, then 10 days, then 2 weeks, then 3 weeks. It's been here for two months. So pick a start date and we will go from there. China had it a few months and saw 80K cases, with 1.4 Billion people yet we will hit 1 million cases in "X" weeks from "whatever date I say"?That's just how exponential growth works. The numbers are going to naturally get much bigger and scarier at this point.
> 
> Potential flaws and biases have been highlighted by others, such as influence of inconsistent testing, etc. Other ones involve the reality that this virus has already mutated and the US is dealing with a different one than in Hubei. It'll likely mutate again and we could have different regions dealing with different strains, which complicates the modeling even more.
> 
> Closed case statistics are available but actually paint worse pictures. Closed cases display a mortality rate greater than 12%. Closed cases, based on the modeling for infection rates you reference multiple times, ignore hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of healthy unconfirmed cases. The active cases display a dynamic environment in which severe cases loads (%) are actually dropping.
> 
> Hard to know what "phase 2" will be when we haven't even fully finished Phase 1. Given we could still be another week + from seeing how "shelter in place" orders actually impacted transmission rates in California we really won't know what is next for a while. Expert opinion is wide ranging but it all largely agrees on the notion that social distancing or quarantine will likely need to continue through at least the beginning of May to matter at allEven then its a virus. We just kissed our lives and freedom goodbye lol. Phase 2 will be worse than phase 1.. And then Phase 2 can be evaluated.
> 
> A pandemic with a historical recession riding it's coat tails is going to continue to be devastating and challenge most of societal systems. We are still just in the midst of bracing for it while experts do their best to study it and build better solutions. But most of us just have to wait, likely for another 4-6 weeks. The common phrase I'm hearing is "this disease is more patient than we are." They know so little yet tell us these things with certainty. It's like a CYA for a "told ya so" later on
> 
> PS....fear is fine and healthy, as long as it doesn't cripple us. It doesn't seem to be. Tell that to people that live with severe anxiety, those this has crippled. Tell that to those that lost their job. Tell that to those that lost their businesses. Those that lost their 401k. Stress is literally proven to be linked to a number of health issues, so I don't know that the word "healthy" fits in any way at all. Our governments and companies are still working hard to account for our new reality. I'm fearful for my household but we still are living day to day. We are prepared and continuing to adapt but not paralized. On that note, I'm going fishing for fun and under the notion that non-essential travel in Utah could eventually be banned and I doubt fishing will be considered essential.
> 
> 
> 
> I went extreme with my responses, based on how set in yours you were.
> 
> My favorite is the last paragraph "Our new reality". Is this really what we want for our new reality? Was this really the only option?
> 
> Why don't I trust experts? Because all this has shown us is none of them know what they are doing and it's all guess work. Models and predictions constantly change and in the end the narrative will fit whatever the result is in a positive way.
Click to expand...

Can you show me which states are under martial law? Unless something changed in the couple hours I was gone we aren't under a national lockdown.

Fear is a healthy in response to danger. Doing some retort about the effects of sustained stress on the body isn't a logical response. They aren't mutually exclusive.

Nor is your retort about how this impacts individuals an honest reflection of my ideas. Of course individuals will experience different outcomes. I've been extremely consistent in vocalizing concern for how this will impact retirement accounts, job security and health. My house is effected. My wife has a career in an industry that will be lucky to survive this recession. 3 people in my community have already been laid off; I am guessing roughly 40% of them will eventually lose jobs because of this. My MIL is extremely high risk for this disease and the methods used to save patient lives are forbidden by her advanced directive and POLST. I deal with anxiety. So maybe actually take context into account.

Per "our new reality"... recognize our new reality doesn't care one bit about our ideology. "Our new reality" is the virus that will infect a large portion of the US. Our new reality is the impact that already has on global supply chains. Our new reality is a lot of things I have zero control over. None of us have any clue how long this will last. That's what I'm speaking to.

I'm sorry you don't trust the actual experts. I hope you are able to find quality sources that are able to explain the inherent limitations of disease modeling and why they are just snapshots of possible outcomes. They give us an educated guess on how to develop strategy but that strategy has to be dynamic as the information and situation changes. And the information and variables of this disease's transmission is changing regularly (like the alleged increase in younger severe cases in the US or that much of the world is experiencing a different strain than China).

But the US response has not been biblical compared to world response. We didn't do a lockdown quarantine like China or Italy. We haven't required checkpoints for medical investigations. We didn't invent an App to check every citizen's symptoms. We didn't screen every traveler entering the country from day 1 (or even recently) like Taiwan. We didn't have a coordinated testing structure like South Korea or even Italy. Not that any or all of those responses are appropriate for the US but we have been disjointed, disorganized and pathetically ill-prepared in comparison. The only biblical outcomes are the consequences of those failures. And we are going to likely be the worst infected country because of it


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry,
> 
> To clarify: I'm not asking you to drop the fear. I'm asking our leaders to quit leading with it. I'm not worried about you controlling me or anyone else. But fear has to stop guiding the discussion (by the leaders and decision makers) and rational thought needs to take over. Rational thought may still lead to shutdowns and other drastic measures. But there has to be a plan. We can't just shut down the entire country indefinitely hoping something miraculous happens with no plan for the next step.
> 
> I'm sorry, I completely disagree we can't be planning for the next step right now. If those in charge are not, that is a total failure on their part.
> 
> Probably the trickiest part of this entire deal is deciding whose lives are more important. Do we do "everything necessary" to save 500, 1000, 10000 lives from the virus? Even if some of those means might cost millions of people everything, including up to their lives from other issues? The consequences of shutting down long term with no future plan are starting to become more visible on the horizon, and to be quite frank, worry me much more than the virus itself does.
> 
> We've got to get a plan in place. We're a ship without a rudder right now. That is not sustainable.


I'm not sure we can go much further in this direction without getting overtly political which is verboten.

I can say the experts I read have plans and they aren't fear driven. Those experts are clearly working on next steps like treatments and vaccines. Those experts are working for private and public enterprise.

We are seeing a massive mobilization of human ingenuity right now in education, food distribution, etc. I consider that one answer to what you are generically asking.

I think several states are doing their best with what resources they have.

But none of them have enough information to tell us what "we will" do next and when that will happen. It's immensely frustrating but it's just not there yet. By "we" I mean what each of us get to do in our communities, businesses and homes.

I agree we are largely rudderless as a country right now. We could each probably socially distance around a campfire right now and realize we likely share more similar thoughts on why that is than we realize but I think we've reached the boundaries of that discussion here.

Whatever the case, science and medicine only ever get us but so far because at some point decisions that matter are made in different rooms.

Holding patterns suck. It seems we will in one for a while.

PS...thx for clarifying the "fear" misunderstanding. Tough conversation that's inherently limited by the platform and community rules. Easy to misinterpret meanings.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Can you show me which states are under martial law? Unless something changed in the couple hours I was gone we aren't under a national lockdown.
> 
> Fear is a healthy in response to danger. Doing some retort about the effects of sustained stress on the body isn't a logical response. They aren't mutually exclusive.
> 
> Nor is your retort about how this impacts individuals an honest reflection of my ideas. Of course individuals will experience different outcomes. I've been extremely consistent in vocalizing concern for how this will impact retirement accounts, job security and health. My house is effected. My wife has a career in an industry that will be lucky to survive this recession. 3 people in my community have already been laid off; I am guessing roughly 40% of them will eventually lose jobs because of this. My MIL is extremely high risk for this disease and the methods used to save patient lives are forbidden by her advanced directive and POLST. I deal with anxiety. So maybe actually take context into account.
> 
> Per "our new reality"... recognize our new reality doesn't care one bit about our ideology. "Our new reality" is the virus that will infect a large portion of the US. Our new reality is the impact that already has on global supply chains. Our new reality is a lot of things I have zero control over. None of us have any clue how long this will last. That's what I'm speaking to.
> 
> I'm sorry you don't trust the actual experts. I hope you are able to find quality sources that are able to explain the inherent limitations of disease modeling and why they are just snapshots of possible outcomes. They give us an educated guess on how to develop strategy but that strategy has to be dynamic as the information and situation changes. And the information and variables of this disease's transmission is changing regularly (like the alleged increase in younger severe cases in the US or that much of the world is experiencing a different strain than China).
> 
> But the US response has not been biblical compared to world response. We didn't do a lockdown quarantine like China or Italy. We haven't required checkpoints for medical investigations. We didn't invent an App to check every citizen's symptoms. We didn't screen every traveler entering the country from day 1 (or even recently) like Taiwan. We didn't have a coordinated testing structure like South Korea or even Italy. Not that any or all of those responses are appropriate for the US but we have been disjointed, disorganized and pathetically ill-prepared in comparison. The only biblical outcomes are the consequences of those failures. *And we are going to likely be the worst infected country because of it*


Bold and colored that for the future. Maybe we should weld people in their apartments like China since their response was so awesome. Or allow travel for longer like Italy. Yep...

I had a big response but I will just say "lol" and move on. You contradict yourself so I don't need to.


----------



## backcountry

Random, you'll notice I said "not that any or all of those responses are appropriate for the US". I'm not sure what the best answers are and try to be honest about that. Your comment about China's response being "awesome" is odd given I've critiqued it as draconian multiple times.

All of that isn't mutually exclusive with how pathetic our federal government's response has been.

If you show me where I contradicted myself I'll apologize.

Feel free to actually support your claims about states under martial law or our national lockdown. The martial law claim is especially egregious during a national crisis. Misinformation like that is how fear turns to panic, which definitely isn't healthy.

And my educated guess you highlighted at the end is where the data is pointing. Our exponential growth is obscene right now. Luckily our fatalities are significantly less than Italy and I hope that continues.

Here are the current stats:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We added more than 9,000 cases just today. From the data I've seen no other countries have experienced that type of positive testing in one day. We can assume, as Johnnycake highlighted, that some of these cases are an artifact of poor testing protocol early on but that's significantly more than even China experienced in a single day once they added cases that were symptomatic but without a positive test.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Random, you'll notice I said "not that any or all of those responses are appropriate for the US". I'm not sure what the best answers are and try to be honest about that.
> 
> Feel free to actually support your claims about states under martial law or our national lockdown. The martial law claim is especially egregious during a national crisis.


When a business is told they have to close their doors and accept the bankruptcy that comes with it, while said business didn't actually violate any laws other than the Governor ordering them to close - that is martial law to me. 4 states have done such a thing.

Maybe the textbook description is different. I don't think those individuals care about the textbook definition.

In terms of response - the countries you brought up with more severe measures are communist, or Europe which had travel bans AFTER us.

Then you talk about a mutated virus. To develop tests, you need the live virus. Which was hard to get from China, and wouldn't matter if our strain is different. So how f we have a mutated, more advanced strain can our exponential growth be compared? Which is it? Ours affects younger people, per your post. So even with the best action we have a more contagious strain (what you hint at anyways). Access to live virus impacts our testing and response. I have a hard time praising the Chinese response, especially if we disregard the welding-in-houses and just look at their lack of action starting this whole thing.

The testing has been slow, I agree on that response. Frankly, we rely on Asia to manufacturer most things, including our medical supplies and medicines. So hopefully out of this things come back to America so we are better equipped to handle things ourselves.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Random, you'll notice I said "not that any or all of those responses are appropriate for the US". I'm not sure what the best answers are and try to be honest about that.
> 
> Feel free to actually support your claims about states under martial law or our national lockdown. The martial law claim is especially egregious during a national crisis.
> 
> 
> 
> When a business is told they have to close their doors and accept the bankruptcy that comes with it, while said business didn't actually violate any laws other than the Governor ordering them to close - that is martial law to me. 4 states have done such a thing.
> 
> Maybe the textbook description is different. I don't think those individuals care about the textbook definition.
> 
> In terms of response - the countries you brought up with more severe measures are communist, or Europe which had travel bans AFTER us.
> 
> Then you talk about a mutated virus. To develop tests, you need the live virus. Which was hard to get from China, and wouldn't matter if our strain is different. So how f we have a mutated, more advanced strain can our exponential growth be compared? Which is it? Ours affects younger people, per your post. So even with the best action we have a more contagious strain (what you hint at anyways). Access to live virus impacts our testing and response. I have a hard time praising the Chinese response, especially if we disregard the welding-in-houses and just look at their lack of action starting this whole thing.
> 
> The testing has been slow, I agree on that response. Frankly, we rely on Asia to manufacturer most things, including our medical supplies and medicines. So hopefully out of this things come back to America so we are better equipped to handle things ourselves.
Click to expand...

What you describe IS NOT martial law. Please take the time to actually read up on that concept before claiming four states have implemented it. It's one of the most severe actions a Governor or President can take which is why it's so rare in this country.

I sincerely don't understand the rest of your post. It seems you are making broad assumptions about my thoughts on the actions of other countries. I DO NOT admire the authoritarian choices of Xi even if it's a rare example of when such unilateral action can "help", as simply measured in tamping down a pandemic. Please stop misrepresenting my ideas.

I don't think you can easily write off SK or Taiwan in the way you have. Both have forms of democratic republics nor are the easily called "communist". Taiwan has a capitalist economy that is extremely strong.

We should be able to do better than both of them. We haven't.

PS...I never hinted we have a more contagious strain. Different, yes. Seems to create a more severe outcome in younger patients if current reporting is accurate, yes. But I don't remember saying anything about it being more contagious or transmittable. The only factual information I have is that enough of its genetic material is different to be able to do contact tracing to specific patients. There are many other such strains across the world now.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Vanilla,
> But the only thing that currently seems to help is social distancing and we need to be encouraging people to keep that up. If we hope to reduce the number of potential deaths than we need to unite people behind that one thing in our control at the moment. We are only really three weeks into this as a nation; the ones flattening the curve are 2-3 months into it and they implemented much more severe measures. We need to be as communitarian and patient as those counties,if not more.





backcountry said:


> But the US response has not been biblical compared to world response. We didn't do a lockdown quarantine like China or Italy. We haven't required checkpoints for medical investigations. We didn't invent an App to check every citizen's symptoms. We didn't screen every traveler entering the country from day 1 (or even recently) like Taiwan. We didn't have a coordinated testing structure like South Korea or even Italy. Not that any or all of those responses are appropriate for the US but we have been disjointed, disorganized and pathetically ill-prepared in comparison. The only biblical outcomes are the consequences of those failures. And we are going to likely be the worst infected country because of it


These are why I said what you said praising other countries. Wether you did or didn't directly, you certainly managed to infer they did a significantly better job than America and we will suffer the most because of it.



backcountry said:


> What you describe IS NOT martial law. Please take the time to actually read up on that concept before claiming four states have implemented it. It's one of the most severe actions a Governor or President can take which is why it's so rare in this country.
> 
> I sincerely don't understand the rest of your post. It seems you are making broad assumptions about my thoughts on the actions of other countries. I DO NOT admire the authoritarian choices of Xi even if it's a rare example of when such unilateral action can "help", as simply measured in tamping down a pandemic. Please stop misrepresenting my ideas.
> 
> I don't think you can easily write off SK or Taiwan in the way you have. Both have forms of democratic republics nor are the easily called "communist". Taiwan has a capitalist economy that is extremely strong.
> 
> We should be able to do better than both of them. We haven't.
> 
> PS...I never hinted we have a more contagious strain. Different, yes. Seems to create a more severe outcome in younger patients if current reporting is accurate, yes. But I don't remember saying anything about it being more contagious or transmittable.


If it spreads to the youth at a higher rate, and the elderly at the same rate - that would imply more contagious. You are right, you didn't say "contagious" but more severe certainly implies we are dealing with something worse, right? So how can you apple to apple compare?

For martial law, I was being facetious. "Context" remember? I very much said it isn't the textbook description. I also said businesses can't tell the difference. Have you seen the military and law enforcement presence in these 4 states? Have you seen "ordinary law" thrown out for new laws? It's very extreme, that was my point.

You haven't seen anything like this "pathetic" response in your life, right?

Do you know who controls Taiwan? I just want to be sure...

As for South Korea, outside of testing (which we agreed was insufficient but haven't yet agreed on why) what have they done?

Oh and PS... It changes the whole context when you keep going back and editing/adding to your posts. My replies appear completely different. I don't care, it just changes things a whole lot. You even edited an edit while I was typing this, so even this response is behind lol.


----------



## backcountry

I sincerely do not believe you are being facetious with your use of "martial law" nor do I think joking about that is remotely helpful in a national emergency. I actually think most businesses know the difference between martial law and mandated closures. 

And yes, those countries did an empirically better job at "flattening the curve". What Taiwan has done is pretty amazing and relatively simple.. (And once again, Taiwan is not communist as you initially stated, no matter what the "cross-strait" relations have been or currently are). 

And it seems obvious to me you lack basic understanding of what certain biological terms mean. Please research what contagious means. I never said it was transmitted to younger people more. I am unaware of any data showing transmission rates being affected by age. Outcomes of infection, it's virulence if I remember correctly, are not the same as how contagious it is.


PS...to your editing comment...it's not intentional. My keyboard is buggy and twice now content was deleted while hitting send


----------



## backcountry

I'm not going to take any bait about what you might perceive as other pathetic responses in American history. It's unrelated to the topic.


----------



## KineKilla

DallanC said:


> All I know is I'm getting alot of projects done around the house. Finally finishing up a complete top-end rebuild of my dunes ATV. Fun stuff.
> 
> -DallanC


I need to put new CV axles or boots at a minimum in my Grizzly. Thanks for the reminder, guess I'll start shopping for parts.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I'm not going to take any bait about what you might perceive as other pathetic responses in American history. It's unrelated to the topic.


There was no attempt at bait there.. It was "when have you ever experienced a response this extreme to anything in America".

I still find your comment odd about our response being pathetic when we have the country on a large quarantine and about 20% of the population currently are in states that are near complete lockdown.

You even said you were going fishing, because you don't know how much longer you will because it may not be essential travel.

So if you live somewhere that forces you to close your business down and doesn't allow you to fish, what would you call that lol? What's the term for that since it isn't martial law and I will use that term? (personally if we can't hunt/fish the word "hell" comes to mind). These business owners aren't as calm as you think... And now you are going to infer I am the one using the wrong terms during a national emergency? Fear is healthy, remember?

And now I lack basic understanding, so I'm stupid? You said severity, I get it. I have seen that the rates of age were higher here for people under 60 than China, that's why I said the word "contagious". Doesn't change the fact YOU said we are dealing with something different.


----------



## backcountry

The national response is fundamentally different than state responses. That is the difference. Our nation's response is currently pathetic. Many states have chosen to go into "shelter in place" orders to combat transmission. 

And neither I nor most of us have experienced a combination of global pandemic and such a severe recession (start of one?) at the same time. Government response often matches the scale of an event. 

I think you can research the proper legal terminology for each states' response on your own. But it's definitely not martial law.

Never said you were stupid but you are regularly misusing terms. And I've said it's a different strain but there is zero evidence it's transmitted easier or worse. The "severe" comments are solely in relation to how they are grading medical outcomes for each patient.


----------



## Vanilla

One bit of news today if we’re looking for a silver lining. One death, 181 cases. And we know that very few even symptomatic people are being tested. So the fatality rate in Utah right now is very low!

(Bad news is it doubles the next time we lose someone...kind of a bummer.) 

But I’m sticking with the silver lining!


----------



## olibooger

I'm just trying to stay out of your guys' way. 

Ya know Rand Paul tested positive? He was working out at the gym with other senators before he found out....

Look into what happens if our government gets sick and we have no government. 

Apologetic for being a jackass, sure. Apologetic for sounding the alarm, no. 

Look, I wanot this to be a dream. I dont want any of this to be true. But I cannot and will not sit here convincing myself history DOES NOT repeat itself. History DOES repeat itself and all great nations fall. Our stock market has been propped up on fiat currency that has basically been printed out of thin air. Now we are pointing it by the TRILLIONS. Think about that. trillions of american US dollars are being printed to save the economy for the time being. This is very dangerous as it is. Venezula and other countries in recent times have done similar things. Print print print more money. It eventually becomes useless to the point it may as well become your toilet paper. 
Again, I dont want any of this to be happening. But I refuse to live in denial as if it isnt happening. I've been reading a lot of first hand accounts from medical workers in other states. They are saying this virus is nothing to be messed with and is absolutely horrible. The R0, r naught value is super highly contagious. 
Combine it with the economy and we have an official "crap" storm. 

What I do have a hard time understanding, is how people can see everything going on around them and tell themselves this will just go away. In fact my brother just said it will pass as the seasons pass. 

If it were a lesser virus and it alone, I would agree. And I WANT to agree so so so bad. I do not want this to be happening. But it is and it is globally. 

Yeah VANILLA, I'm sorry for being a jackass. I'm not sorry for spelling out what is happening because it is very very bad. 

If you, any of you saw a burning house with women and children inside wouldnt you yell for help or get hoses or something to put it out? 

Our house is burning and I'm trying to at least sound the alarm. 

Make fun of me, call me names as I have done to some of you if you wish, but it isnt going to stop me from sounding the alarm. At some point the alarm will be undeniable.

Yes. I am trying, to stay out of the way. ✌


----------



## Vanilla

Booger, everyone is alarmed. This thread is almost 1000 posts deep! How many threads get to that number?

Very few. 

We’re all concerned. You aren’t in this alone on sounding an alarm. Your posts make up a small number of the alarms raised on this thread for almost 2 months now. There have been hundreds of posts not by you that offer warnings or alarms about this in one way or the other. 

We are all concerned.


----------



## olibooger

Didnt seem to alarmed when I said watch the stock market and put your money into silver a couple months ago. Or hyperinflation, or military in the streets or....

In fact I was shunned quite some time ago on this thread for saying those kinds of things.

I think I said at some point it will be undeniable. 
As it is becoming now. Matter o fact I probably hardly even need to sound an alarm at this point anymore it is so undeniable. Probably why I was a while back though.

Everyone really is I'm this together. I've been thinking about going door to door maintaing social distancing and trying to set up a community outreach type of thing to get a plan together. Communities are going to need to commune if the trucks stop delivering or our food gets rationed by the national guard.

Like I said before too, I'll try to stay out of your way. I dont want to get in the way of you sounding the alarm or give mixed signals.

I'm not being sarcastic.

My name on this forum is probably &#128078; by now and vanilla and backcountry will do a better job at delivering useful information.

https://academic.oup.com/advances/article/10/4/696/5476413

Did I mention zinc? Do a search on zinc and antiviral. Any older folks should be dosing daily.


----------



## Vanilla

You’re still being very selective in the things you’ve said. Including:

-vaccines turning us into zombies
-point creep won’t matter this season as there won’t be any animals left to hunt
-civil unrest and military in the streets (within two weeks from 2/28, mind you) 
-disparaging remarks about the predominant religion here and also Utahns in general 
-that you went down too many rabbit holes and you were wrong, and then you weren’t, then you were again, and now you’re not again 

These are just what I can specifically remember. You went through and deleted many of your most extreme whack job posts. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t blame you a bit. I would have too if I posted that crap. But quit pretending your motivation here is to just be helpful. It’s not.


----------



## backcountry

New strategy but also probably not wise for the United States 😜

*Fake News


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Lmao. You are one seriously handicapped human being arent you?
> 
> Have you been taking notes? Because you should stop. You're note taking sucks terribly. You wrote down 2/28? Wtf? Really? I like how you've injected your personal emotion into what I have said. It's super classy of you. .
> 
> People like you is what will get people no where vanilla. I feel terrible for you. I can hardly believe how stupid you are. It's like talking to a drooling 4 year old.
> 
> Military is in the streets. Not here yet, but they are on American soil. Forced inoculation is coming if this keeps going the way it is. Maybe your special kind of stupid will save you from what is to come.
> 
> I'll leave you to your senseless commenting. Is all it is is repeat of news everyone is being fed. Try to think a few steps ahead genius. I bet you are smart enough when things get really bad and someone comes to you with life saving information you'd turn him away being so pompous and full of yourself.
> 
> Again, I feel really bad for you. I hope you dont have any kids because....wow.... one drooling moron is bad enough...offspring of that level of stupid? Worse than the virus itself
> go **** yourself vanilla &#128405;


In the immortal words of Ron Burgandy: that escalated quickly!

Should I expect another apology PM? Or are we well beyond that now? I was really hoping we could be friends.


----------



## olibooger

Well beyond it. Pointless trying to uphold a class act with such an *******. You are definitely part of the problem not the solution. 
I could give two ****s less about this forum anyways. 

I'm out for real


I like how you've added into my quote also. 

Appreciate that. I am off this forum. I'm sure I wont be missed anyways.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> Well beyond it. Pointless trying to uphold a class act with such an *******. You are definitely part of the problem not the solution.
> I could give two ****s less about this forum anyways.
> 
> I'm out for real


I'm going to take the under on that one too. (Just like I did on a zombie apocalypse breaking out in two weeks...remember where we began this?) You'll be back. Unfortunately.

Edit: and you can keep going and editing your posts after I quote them. I've added nothing. You can see you edited your posts after, genius. Look at the bottom! You should at least look at the screen before you lie.


----------



## olibooger

You quoted something I deleted...I deleted it because I thought better of it but you beat me to deleting in. It would be nice if you would delete that as well. And no, I won't be back. I dont want to be back. You win and have done your job. 

If you have any bit of kindness you would delete my quotes, deletes post because I didn't want it on there you just beat me to the delete.

I would really appreciate it if you would. I really am not coming back to this forum. It was a mistake to come back after those days.

I would be incredibly greatful if you did delete my quote, please. Like I said, I thought better of some of those things and tried to delete.

And I know I can edit something and it says so. If its quoted, and I edit it, it doesn't change anything. And i didn't want that posted.


----------



## olibooger

Vanilla said:


> You're still being very selective in the things you've said. Including:
> 
> -vaccines turning us into zombies
> -point creep won't matter this season as there won't be any animals left to hunt
> -civil unrest and military in the streets (within two weeks from 2/28, mind you)
> -disparaging remarks about the predominant religion here and also Utahns in general
> -that you went down too many rabbit holes and you were wrong, and then you weren't, then you were again, and now you're not again
> 
> These are just what I can specifically remember. You went through and deleted many of your most extreme whack job posts. Don't get me wrong, I don't blame you a bit. I would have too if I posted that crap. But quit pretending your motivation here is to just be helpful. It's not.
> 
> I can however add things to your quote
> 
> Like this and th9s
> 
> And thisannfnskofjtb


Like this. I can add whatever I want to make you seem to say whatever....

O well. Good luck vanilla ✌


----------



## johnnycake

And this is why I am so anal cleanliness fixated in this thread (and the like). 

I'm gonna go ahead and guess olibooger is back to post again tonight (if he doesn't get the ban hammer first for his avatar). And here's a tip oli, don't post whackadoodle or woefully disrespectful crap then think anybody is going to forget it or let you wriggle away from it just because you went back to delete it after you realized you probably didn't want to actually say that. The time to realize you don't want to say that is before you hit "post" the first time.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> And neither I nor most of us have experienced a combination of global pandemic and such a severe recession (start of one?) at the same time. Government response often matches the scale of an event.


So.. You admit you are judging a response yet never seen anything like this in your lifetime? I feel this statement doesn't do justice to the fact that the recession is a result of the pandemic, and more-so the government response. Don't believe me? Look at the stock market results after each of the FEDERAL (not state) speeches.

Most the states are following the federal guidelines. Hard to call a response pathetic then say we haven't dealt with anything like this so you don't have a whole hell of a lot to compare it to.

I said Martial Law to prove a point, not misuse a term. Much like you calling fear "healthy". Businesses were forced to close down, social constraints were put in place... People are having limitations put on them by the government they have never experienced in their lives. Guess what? It's only going to enhance. Keep sticking on that one phrase while deflecting from what is happening.

I will wait for the almighty response you believe we should have had.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Back on topic......


I guess our country is now ranked 3rd in the world now, for number of confirmed cases. That said, we've a long way to go before we catch up with Italy, but it will probably happen. I suspect eventually we'll be right behind china in number of cases.

In Utah we are up to 181 confirmed cases, and now 1 death as of the news this morning. It's growing like wildfire. Wasn't it just a few days ago we had 1 case, then 5? I remember in Utah county a 1 or 2 days ago we had 1 vistor case, now we are up to 6.

I suspect these confirmed cases are the tip of the iceberg. From info I've seen, you may as well take the confirmed cases and multiply it by 70% to have a rough approximation on actual number of infected people. (so that means we probably have 308 cases, rounded up to the nearest one)


Fun times, and my wife is already telling me what she wants happen if she dies. UGH.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> If you have any bit of kindness you would delete my quotes, deletes post because I didn't want it on there you just beat me to the delete.


Sorry boogeyman, but did you afford me kindness when you posted it? Did you afford me kindness in the things you said there? Did you afford me kindness when you followed it up by lying and saying I added things to your post, trying to inaccurately implicate my own character for your own benefit? The answer to that doesn't matter, even if it's clear. The mods can do whatever they want with your posts, that's not my job to cover for you.

On top of all that, I actually think the "kind" thing to do (and more appropriately, the responsible thing) would be to leave it up so people can know what they're dealing with when you come back. If you didn't want it on here, you shouldn't have put it on here. I suspect the mods are going to grant your request after your actions last night. Then we can get back to discussing an important issue like adults around here. We don't all have to agree. and we can even disagree strongly as you're seeing throughout, but your actions the last month have been deplorable at best.


----------



## RandomElk16

Lone_Hunter said:


> Back on topic......
> 
> I guess our country is now ranked 3rd in the world now, for number of confirmed cases. That said, we've a long way to go before we catch up with Italy, but it will probably happen. I suspect eventually we'll be right behind china in number of cases.
> 
> In Utah we are up to 181 confirmed cases, and now 1 death as of the news this morning. It's growing like wildfire. Wasn't it just a few days ago we had 1 case, then 5? I remember in Utah county a 1 or 2 days ago we had 1 vistor case, now we are up to 6.
> 
> I suspect these confirmed cases are the tip of the iceberg. From info I've seen, you may as well take the confirmed cases and multiply it by 70% to have a rough approximation on actual number of infected people. (so that means we probably have 308 cases, rounded up to the nearest one)
> 
> Fun times, and my wife is already telling me what she wants happen if she dies. UGH.


I think we were at 5 when Rudy ruined the NBA (joke). That feels like 2 years ago, but was a week and a half right?.

I hope your wife ends up healthy and safe through all this. My wife works in healthcare and her work seems to be doing very little in the way of protecting her.


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> Back on topic......
> 
> I guess our country is now ranked 3rd in the world now, for number of confirmed cases. That said, we've a long way to go before we catch up with Italy, but it will probably happen. I suspect eventually we'll be right behind china in number of cases.
> 
> In Utah we are up to 181 confirmed cases, and now 1 death as of the news this morning. It's growing like wildfire. Wasn't it just a few days ago we had 1 case, then 5? I remember in Utah county a 1 or 2 days ago we had 1 vistor case, now we are up to 6.


This is one of the reasons I think "total confirmed cases" is a bad metric. I realize it is all we have right now, and basically everyone admits it is not a true view of what we are seeing (or not seeing, maybe to be more accurate?), but I still want to just illustrate the point. We keep hearing about how we are on "Italy's curve." Italy is the big scary boogeyman in the room right now, and rightfully so. But are we REALLY on Italy's curve? I saw a chart from this weekend measuring their confirmed cases to ours from the date each country hit 100 confirmed cases. At day 18 after that trigger point they were right around 13,000 and we were right around 13,600. That is kind of scary without context. But that doesn't take into consideration that the US population is 5.4 times higher than Italy's. So if you looked at the per capita new cases, we are not even close to being on Italy's curve.

When viewed in context, it doesn't seem so scary. This is one of the reasons I am tired of the scary articles and scary news conferences and scary this and scary that. I guess my patience is just wearing thin, but this isn't going anywhere soon so I better put on my big boy pants!



Lone_Hunter said:


> I suspect these confirmed cases are the tip of the iceberg. From info I've seen, you may as well take the confirmed cases and multiply it by 70% to have a rough approximation on actual number of infected people. (so that means we probably have 308 cases, rounded up to the nearest one)


I have no idea how much higher, but logic would suggest it is much higher infection rate, like you've stated. If nothing else, that should give us some solace. The hospitalization and fatality rates are much lower than reported if we accept that we are grossly under-testing. Which means.....THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ALL OF US AFTER ALL!!! Another silver lining.



Lone_Hunter said:


> Fun times, and my wife is already telling me what she wants happen if she dies. UGH.


And that is the real life stuff so many are dealing with on this that just sucks. Whether it's health scares, fear of losing your livelihood, or just general anxiety or going completely bonkers over this, there is a real human impact of this that we can't ignore.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> And neither I nor most of us have experienced a combination of global pandemic and such a severe recession (start of one?) at the same time. Government response often matches the scale of an event.
> 
> 
> 
> So.. You admit you are judging a response yet never seen anything like this in your lifetime? I feel this statement doesn't do justice to the fact that the recession is a result of the pandemic, and more-so the government response. Don't believe me? Look at the stock market results after each of the FEDERAL (not state) speeches.
> 
> Most the states are following the federal guidelines. Hard to call a response pathetic then say we haven't dealt with anything like this so you don't have a whole hell of a lot to compare it to.
> 
> I said Martial Law to prove a point, not misuse a term. Much like you calling fear "healthy". Businesses were forced to close down, social constraints were put in place... People are having limitations put on them by the government they have never experienced in their lives. Guess what? It's only going to enhance. Keep sticking on that one phrase while deflecting from what is happening.
> 
> I will wait for the almighty response you believe we should have had.
Click to expand...

I have not been shy about judging the federal response.

The states aren't following federal policy, they are leading the way.

Calling fear healthy isn't remotely like misusing the term martial law. Fear is an evolutionary response to danger, like a virus. Its healthy to fear something like it and prepare accordingly. Hence why I mentioned not letting it cripple you, which obviously isn't healthy. I dare say the beachgoers in Florida and New Yorkers still gathering in big groups clearly don't have a healthy dose of fear.

That isn't remotely similar to saying four states were under martial law or that we are under national lockdown. Both of those are completely wrong claims.

The recession is obviously complex. I use the phrase about it riding the coattails of s pandemic because I think most of us know they are related.

I feel for all of the businesses suffering. The service industry is being decimated and I know two people laid off in California, both in the same household. I think we'll all know individuals who will be hurt by this. I've been consistent in my empathy.

And I'll repeat that I don't know what the best option is at this point but our federal response has been pathetic. I can say that with empirical evidence from the countries you called "communist" to compare it to. There is no reason our federal government could not have done as well or better than them.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,

I agree it would be helpful if the news and government officials put more perspective to the numbers instead of expecting us to do so. The US's per capita infection rate is much lower than Italy's, which does matter, and our fatality rate is a fraction of what they are experiencing. 

I also wish the media and the government did a better job at teaching the public about the basic biology and math used in discussing pandemics. We'd be better off if more citizens understood exponential growth and modeling. I say that to reiterate what I said earlier in the thread about their inherent limitations. Sadly I think once people see how the actual outcome doesn't match up cleanly with the models than people start to dismiss them outright. 

I think I'm lucky as I don't watch broadcast or cable television. I've been largely out of the loop of the media cycle which might explain part of why I interpreted the "fear" issue differently than others. I still obviously consume print media and some streams but I get to fast forward or skip entire sections I find problematic. I can better understand how citizens are perceiving various agencies or outlets fear mongering right now. It's a crappy tool to use against citizens. 

Luckily, there are a ton of silver linings right now. I know my community is closer than ever. We are trying to stay in better contact and reach out more often. I'm impressed to see how private enterprise is stepping up voluntarily to adapt for the crisis, wether that's changing fees for food delivery or retool their factories for production of needed medical equipment. I'm not much of a sports fan but the players donating salary to arena employees is an amazing act of compassion. Obviously more acts of beauty than we can count.

I'll breathe a big sigh of relief if my household weathers this global pandemic. Millions will. Now more than ever I'm proud to live in Utah and see such thoughtful responses. We are doing our best to support local business to pay it forward. I'm still hopeful we can unite as a country. I don't see that as some sort of Disney-esque sea change in our government but a chance for citizens to see that most of our differences are less than what binds us. We've come out of similar past crises more United so I hold onto that possiblity. 

Best of luck folks. And sincere appreciation and empathy for all the households with healthcare workers on this forum. You are in our thoughts daily.


----------



## shaner

My nightmare/fantasy is I get the virus but wake up fully cured with a young Rene Russo staring deeply in to my eyes.


----------



## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> That is kind of scary without context. But that doesn't take into consideration that the US population is 5.4 times higher than Italy's. So if you looked at the per capita new cases, we are not even close to being on Italy's curve.


As I understand it, the per capita issue is not going to affect much about the rate of exponential growth, so much as it will affect the amount of time that the growth can continue.

For example, if you have Patient 0 who infects 3 people and each of them infect 3 and the total cases doubling every ~5 days, the initial phases will have the same numbers of growth in population A of 1000 people or pop B of 1M, but population A will plateau and reach herd immunity much earlier than population B. The logarithmic curve is still the same.

Either way, that is a lot of dirty anuses since ~50% of patients report diarrhea


----------



## caddis8

johnnycake said:


> Either way, that is a lot of dirty anuses since ~50% of patients report diarrhea=


My bidet should arrive today. I had to change because they tried to ship me round when i have elongated. We'll see if the other is as quality. Has good reviews. Inventory was difficult to find.

My current cleanliness ratio I follow is sit downs had/showers taken. If I am at a ratio of 2/1 or 2/0, and worst case scenario of 3/1 or end of days 3/0, then I get grumpy.

I hope that I feel as if I were at 0/1 even if I were at 6/1 because of the bidet. I am looking for my wildest dreams to come true. Please don't make it be like eating at 5 Guys or In-N-Out, all hype and nothing to back it up. Overhyped to be disappointed by the results. I may have been pleased without the overhype, but it could not live up to lofty expectations.


----------



## RandomElk16

johnnycake said:


> ~50% of patients report diarrhea


Turns out I have the virus for 2 days every deer camp, following Chili Dog night.


----------



## johnnycake

caddis8 said:


> I hope that I feel as if I were at 0/1 even if I were at 6/1 because of the bidet. I am looking for my wildest dreams to come true. Please don't make it be like eating at 5 Guys or In-N-Out, all hype and nothing to back it up. Overhyped to be disappointed by the results. I may have been pleased without the overhype, but it could not live up to lofty expectations.


If it doesn't live up to the hype, then you clearly have something wrong with your sphincter. And this coming from a guy that whole heartedly agrees with your 5 Guys and In-N-Out assessment.


----------



## middlefork

Newest apparent symptom is lack of smell. Might be a good thing.


----------



## backcountry

First confirmed case in Iron Co. 

Wife is working from home starting today. Boss was great but it's uncertain how long they can manage that if staff start getting sick. Might have to have Plan B if this lasts into May, like her staying in hotel away from us if she has to fill in shifts on site. Our house is only 1100 sq ft and single bathroom which makes isolating her from her mom nearly impossible. 

Wild times.


----------



## PBH

backcountry said:


> First confirmed case in Iron Co.


source?

*edit*
Found one thing on KSL: Southwest Utah has 5 confirmed cases. 4 in Washington county and 1 in Iron.
All believed to be travel related.


----------



## backcountry

Yep, here is the primary source for updates. Sounds like they are doing contact tracing still.

https://swuhealth.org/covid/


----------



## CPAjeff

So, do y'all think the stock market has hit the bottom yet or no?


----------



## RandomElk16

CPAjeff said:


> So, do y'all think the stock market has hit the bottom yet or no?


Depends on what Phase 2 is.

If it's longer, or additionally restricted quarantine... Then no. It will drop more.


----------



## CPAjeff

RandomElk16 said:


> Depends on what Phase 2 is.
> 
> If it's longer, or additionally restricted quarantine... Then no. It will drop more.


I agree - I also am interested to see how the government handout, if ever approved, will impact the market. There are SOOOOO many incredible deals right now in the market, it is insane.


----------



## KineKilla

My main concern is that this thread surpasses the post count of the "When will CC Hits Start" thread...


----------



## Critter

KineKilla said:


> My main concern is that this thread surpasses the post count of the "When will CC Hits Start" thread...


Never.

The WWCCHS thread will blow up here in a couple of months and gain another 20 or so pages while this thread will die out.


----------



## DallanC

CPAjeff said:


> There are SOOOOO many incredible deals right now in the market, it is insane.


+1,000,000,000,000

-DallanC


----------



## johnnycake

CPAjeff said:


> I agree - I also am interested to see how the government handout, if ever approved, will impact the market. There are SOOOOO many incredible deals right now in the market, it is insane.


I've caught a few of the dead cat bounces right so far, and I think we've still got a fair ways to go before the bears lose control. I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and maybe I'm too pessimistic but I think even if the massive stimulus package that Congress is wrangling and dickering over gets passed that it won't turn the ship around.


----------



## Vanilla

johnnycake said:


> Either way, that is a lot of dirty anuses since ~50% of patients report diarrhea


According to Utah's coronavirus website, diarrhea is a rare symptom. Why are you spreading lies? You buy stock in Imodium AD this weekend as well?


----------



## caddis8

I don't think we've hit the bottom yet. There is still too much volatility. Too many big swings and we haven't even begun to understand what the economic impact will truly be. This is fear and algorithm trading going right now, which is very bear like. 

I haven't even looked at my IRA (had to go that route from 401(k) before I got laid off). 

There are some good things to be had for sure. It's a risky ballgame. I still think we have more room to go down. If'n i was guessing, I would say still another 20-30%.

Regarding phase 2 of the disease. I'm not a epidemiologist. However, I would make a distinction regarding phase 2 of plans and rollout and phase 2 of disease. From what I have read (please correct me for those who are smarter than I am), the Spanish Flu of 1918 (which this is probably the closest acting to this) came in three waves. The timing was fairly similar too. Phase one was acting like this. To be sure, there are differences such as WWI and people cramed together. Then the smart people thought it was licked, but it came back in wave 2 in the Fall and was actually more deadly than wave 1. Wave 3 hit in Spring and was very deadly. 

I don't think this will just go away with social distancing. Based on this, I think this will be a long term thing. What are the smart people's thoughts?


----------



## Critter

I personally think that if the D's and R's get together and finally pass the stimulus package that they claim that they are working on you are going to see a serious uptick to the market. 

I have been watching a few different stocks and just in the last few days when the market is open I have seen where a person could of made a 20-25% profit if he was ready to act on them. 

But the problem is to make any real money you are going to have to invest some real money which leaves me out. On a another forum that I am on one person made over $20,000 just today on trading. That is how the rich get richer.


----------



## DallanC

I'm having this discussion with my 19 year old. I told him this is a chance of a lifetime for him to get in on some potential deals. For an example, I brought up Boeing and showed him that chart. If it just returns to its previous norm (which it will, question is just how long that will be), thats nearly 4x gain in money. At his age if he put in a couple grand and let'er grow for the next 50 years... it should be something hugely significant.










Disney is another candidate to make some $$$ off of, their entire business model is entertainment based, and in ways corona directly effects (disney cruiselines, disney parks, movie theatres, heck even ESPN with lack of sports). Disney is going to be severely beaten down before it springs back.

Maybe we need a new thread on investment opportunities lol

-DallanC


----------



## CPAjeff

Critter said:


> But the problem is to make any real money you are going to have to invest some real money. On a another forum that I am on one person made over $20,000 just today on trading. That is how the rich get richer.


^^^ This!

This is not an avenue I completely agree with, but it's hard to argue with the train of thought of the following individual . . . I had a professor in my grad program who is a hedge fund guru. In the downturn of 2008 he sucked all the equity he could out of his house - granted he made $300K+ a year, so if he lost it all he could easily pay off his house again - and threw just over a million into the market. He held his market position until the rebound and cashed out with over 15 million in net profits. He has since retired . . .

Of all the classes I've had, his was the absolute hardest, yet most rewarding. I've thought about him often during the past couple weeks and can imagine him saying, his often repeated line, "When the market is in your favor, go big."


----------



## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> According to Utah's coronavirus website, diarrhea is a rare symptom. Why are you spreading lies? You buy stock in Imodium AD this weekend as well?


Me and The American Journal of Gastroenterology are so deep in that Pink Gold you cannot even imagine.

https://journals.lww.com/ajg/Documents/COVID_Digestive_Symptoms_AJG_Preproof.pdf

The Profiteers Of Optimal Pooping are quite the cabal, disseminating our fake news and lies to induce panic.


----------



## CPAjeff

DallanC said:


> Maybe we need a new thread on investment opportunities lol
> 
> -DallanC


I agree - you start! 

Boeing is an incredible deal. The entire entertainment (Disney, Six Flags, etc) and restaurant segment has crashed (well so has the rest of the market).

Simple low hanging fruit - Del Taco. 52 week high is $13.50, ended today at $3.30. Picking up 1,000 shares @ $3.30 would only be $3,300. Selling those 1,000 shares at $13.50 would be a gross profit of $10,200 - that's only 3.09x your money.

The market is flooded with deals like Del Taco, which is an okay deal, but not a great deal. It would be pretty easy to turn $20,000 into $90,000+.


----------



## 2full

Well...….I dumped all my stock first thing this morning. I cannot lose anymore right now. I was going to get out a month ago, and never did pull the trigger.


So you can be sure that it will start back up know. :shock:


Whatever I do.....do the reverse, and you will be rich and famous.
Everything has gone totally upside down for me the last 3 months for sure.


I actually timed things well with the '01 drop, and the '08 drop.
Got out as it started down, and got back in as they both started back up. Actually ended up making some money on both of those drops. :mrgreen:
I'll be watching it close.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Looks like Herbert extended the school closure until May 1.


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> Looks like Herbert extended the school closure until May 1.


May 1st? Yeah right. Kids aren't going back to school this year.

Looking for another silver lining? Our fatality rate in Utah went from 1:182 yesterday to 1:257 today!

That's fantastic!!!! Smile everyone. We're going to get through this one. I'm confident and optimistic.


----------



## #1DEER 1-I

Vanilla said:


> May 1st? Yeah right. Kids aren't going back to school this year.
> 
> Looking for another silver lining? Our fatality rate in Utah went from 1:182 yesterday to 1:257 today!
> 
> That's fantastic!!!! Smile everyone. We're going to get through this one. I'm confident and optimistic.


We will. I'm nervous about the next couple months though.


----------



## Vanilla

#1DEER 1-I said:


> We will. I'm nervous about the next couple months though.


Don't let me fool you. I'm nervous too. But I'm really trying to find the positive and figure out how this can make me better. And I do believe this can make us all better, if we let it.


----------



## johnnycake

Let us not wallow too much in our misery. Remember, I'm going to draw a desert sheep tag this year


----------



## Critter

I wonder on how many cases got passed on today at the airport up in SLC when the missionaries came home with the crowds that were waiting for them. 

And while I don't agree with him on very much Romney hit the nail on the head when he made a statement about it.


----------



## DallanC

Gas is under $1 in some parts of the USA. Here in Utah they expect it to drop to $1.50 in the next month or two. I cant wait, going to burn a TON of it at the dunes this year. I know I can get more than 6ft from other goofballs out there in Little Sahara.


-DallanC


----------



## alaska

At this moment, more cases of covid-19 have increased especially in Italy. Even we do not have thousands of case here, I can't stop myself from worrying. It's not only about the the disease, it's also about the effects to our economy and the future of our family.


----------



## KineKilla

DallanC said:


> Gas is under $1 in some parts of the USA. Here in Utah they expect it to drop to $1.50 in the next month or two. I cant wait, going to burn a TON of it at the dunes this year. I know I can get more than 6ft from other goofballs out there in Little Sahara.
> 
> -DallanC


Yep, I'd like the prices to stay there through the summer and fall as well. Makes trips to the mountains to "Self-isolate" much more affordable.


----------



## PBH

Schools closed until May 1.

I'm guessing that spring sports will all be cancelled for good soon. That really sucks. After rehabilitating for a year from a repaired ACL tear prior to the season starting last year, my daughter was really looking forward to softball this year. Now it's out the window. 2 of her 4 years have been missed now. Her window of opportunity has really shrunk. This sucks.


----------



## DallanC

Any bets on how much of a jump in confirmed cases we will have after importing back +20,000 missionaries from all corners of the globe? Lol...

-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

257 cases. 5000 tests. What are those 4700 people doing now?


----------



## RandomElk16

DallanC said:


> Any bets on how much of a jump in confirmed cases we will have after importing back +20,000 missionaries from all corners of the globe? Lol...
> 
> -DallanC


Massive since 30 people seemed to go to the airport for each missionary.


----------



## backcountry

Interesting and thoughtful article to read. It highlights some of my, and the sources I used, misunderstandings/errors. Important approach not just for future viruses but for mitigating the rest of Covid-19s impact.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...C4scqQxyzdcTqQcjIOX-PcrYpEBQA8QJrdNkRNTox0ZMI


----------



## backcountry

IOC finally accepts the need to delay the 2020 games. Double edged sword for athletes but I know at least one has already gotten Covid-19 and has been struggling for more than a month.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattpe...due-to-coronavirus-the-first-time-since-wwii/


----------



## Vanilla

https://www.ksl.com/article/4673428...-to-help-state-recover-from-covid-19-pandemic

A plan! Someone put together a phased plan!!!! Genius, I tell ya.


----------



## RandomElk16

So we have talked about some of the economic and ultimately the likely chance that suicides increase from this... One avenue I hadn't considered:

Salt Lake saw large increase (looks about 14-15%) in domestic violence calls. 



One death... yet it seems like way more lives have been permanently impacted here. People are confusing "choose economy" or life in general and "choose health" as two things that can't correlate.


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> Salt Lake saw large increase (looks about 14-15%) in domestic violence calls.


Where did you get this data? For all intents and purposes, we've been under recommendations for restricting activities or a change in how things have been handled for less than two weeks, so I'm not sure we have a data set to suggest any noticeable change in anything in the criminal justice system, but I'm interested in seeing the data on it.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

RandomElk16 said:


> Salt Lake saw large increase (looks about 14-15%) in domestic violence calls.


 I'm gonna guess people are spending more time at home then what they are used to, driving each other crazy and up the walls.

/gallows humor


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> Where did you get this data? For all intents and purposes, we've been under recommendations for restricting activities or a change in how things have been handled for less than two weeks, so I'm not sure we have a data set to suggest any noticeable change in anything in the criminal justice system, but I'm interested in seeing the data on it.


Multiple sites - SLC Police somethin or other tweeted it. Went from around 79-83 every week this year to 96 calls two weeks in a row.

https://kutv.com/news/local/domesti...r-utahns-advised-to-stay-home-social-distance


----------



## Vanilla

Interesting. Domestic violence is a bigger issue than anyone not dealing with it could ever imagine.


----------



## KineKilla

The increase is one of those unforseen or unexpected consequences of cooping people up with each other for long periods of time.

Didn't think about the possibility but once it happens it makes sense.


----------



## backcountry

If it's related that's definitely unfortunate. The article I read mentioned it had been rising all year, though that timeframe was steeper. I would hope someone in the department is comparing to trends last year as well as what continues to happen.

Another good reason to donate to crisis centers.


----------



## Iron Bear

Probably can account for the uptick in DV just based apon the dozen or so wife beaters they have released from Salt Lake out of concern for criminal safety forget public safety.


----------



## Iron Bear

Shocking I know

Criminals commit crime when out in public. Non violent or not.

https://kutv.com/news/local/police-concerned-over-coronavirus-related-parolee-releases


----------



## guner

Well just to give a perspective on the governments view. They are clearing entire areas at the VA Hospital and doing a rearrange of staff in preparation for a drastic “ramp up” in patients. I say this not to alarm, but simply to point out that we still have some bad times projected, we all know how proactive and cautious the government is known for. 

Hope everyone stays safe and healthy!!


----------



## Vanilla

Iron Bear said:


> Probably can account for the uptick in DV just based apon the dozen or so wife beaters they have released from Salt Lake out of concern for criminal safety forget public safety.


Utah Supreme Court just issued an order over the weekend delaying all court cases until June 1. They recommended judges look at every person being held in jail on their docket to determine if they can be released with "appropriate restrictions." They encouraged the release of everyone held on class C and class B misdemeanors. The vast majority of DV offenses across the state are classB misdemeanors.

Two thoughts:

1- yes, this will increase crime;
2- IB, this could be lucrative for you!


----------



## Packout

The Domestic Violence thing really bothers me. Last week, I saw an interview done with an expert on the subject and she said the increase in domestic violence will increase dramatically as people stay isolated longer, becoming stressed and feeling hopeless. It is along the same thought of increased suicides.

All collateral damage to the virus fight. Damage that will far surpass the viral consequences. 

I watched an interview with a woman who lost her mother to Covid 19. The mother was in her late 80s and had Alzheimer disease and other health issues. How many would have died within 12 months anyway.... I'm not saying we shouldn't do what we are doing, just that we should be more aware of how the actions are effecting others.


----------



## Iron Bear

Vanilla said:


> Iron Bear said:
> 
> 
> 
> Probably can account for the uptick in DV just based apon the dozen or so wife beaters they have released from Salt Lake out of concern for criminal safety forget public safety.
> 
> 
> 
> Utah Supreme Court just issued an order over the weekend delaying all court cases until June 1. They recommended judges look at every person being held in jail on their docket to determine if they can be released with "appropriate restrictions." They encouraged the release of everyone held on class C and class B misdemeanors. The vast majority of DV offenses across the state are classB misdemeanors.
> 
> Two thoughts:
> 
> 1- yes, this will increase crime;
> 2- IB, this could be lucrative for you!
Click to expand...

It would be better to be a prosecutor that is paid 5X the average bondsman regardless. And gets to sleep not answering the phone at all hours of the night.

In Utah a 5 years average of $110 million in bail written. That's $11 million if everyone collected all of their premium which they didn't. (more like $8 million collected) 39 bond companies in Utah. $282 K per company. 500 bond agents. $22k per agent. For a vast vast majority of bondsman it's a part time supplemental income.

Nothing lucrative about the bailbond industry. I know of a couple guys who make a decent living. But that's literally 2 out of 500 members in the industry.

Popular myth that bondsman make a lot of money.


----------



## RandomElk16

Packout said:


> The Domestic Violence thing really bothers me. Last week, I saw an interview done with an expert on the subject and she said the increase in domestic violence will increase dramatically as people stay isolated longer, becoming stressed and feeling hopeless. It is along the same thought of increased suicides.
> 
> All collateral damage to the virus fight. Damage that will far surpass the viral consequences.
> 
> I watched an interview with a woman who lost her mother to Covid 19. The mother was in her late 80s and had Alzheimer disease and other health issues. How many would have died within 12 months anyway.... I'm not saying we shouldn't do what we are doing, just that we should be more aware of how the actions are effecting others.


Let's not forget, with the added stress of kids being home all week the unfortunate reality is some of these increased cases will be violence against children. Others will be in the presence of a child. That doesn't downplay Male to Female, Female to Male, etc etc... but I think we can agree it's certainly worse when a child is involved.

It's a sad situation for sure.


----------



## CPAjeff

It'll be interesting to see what personal changes are made on the back-end of this deal - and I'm not talking about repenting.

I think people will start taking food storage more serious, saving more serious, preparing for a rainy day more serious, etc. While this ordeal is not over, I believe the silver lining is that more people will be prepared for the next 'big' thing because of going through this situation. 

I've often wondered what it would've been like to be alive in 1900 - 1950. Two world wars, the great depression, and then all the progress. It's no wonder the folks who lived during those times learned to work hard and be frugal.


----------



## PBH

CPAjeff said:


> It's no wonder the folks who lived during those times learned to ... be frugal.


I'm so screwed.

I'm committed on the new house.
It's going to stretch our budget.

On the bright side:
I'll be on my own well.
I'll have a bidet.


----------



## Vanilla

Iron Bear said:


> It would be better to be a prosecutor that is paid 5X the average bondsman regardless. And gets to sleep not answering the phone at all hours of the night.





Iron Bear said:


> $22k per agent. For a vast vast majority of bondsman it's a part time supplemental income.
> .


Easy, Mr Sensitive. I really meant this could be an opportunity for you with people being let out with "appropriate restrictions." I have to think bail will be a part of that. And just so we're clear, there are a whole ton of prosecutors in this state that would kill to make $110k per year. I think you're thinking about the wrong attorneys.


----------



## DallanC

CPAjeff said:


> It'll be interesting to see what personal changes are made on the back-end of this deal - and I'm not talking about repenting.
> 
> I think people will start taking food storage more serious, saving more serious, preparing for a rainy day more serious, etc. While this ordeal is not over, I believe the silver lining is that more people will be prepared for the next 'big' thing because of going through this situation.
> 
> I've often wondered what it would've been like to be alive in 1900 - 1950. Two world wars, the great depression, and then all the progress. It's no wonder the folks who lived during those times learned to work hard and be frugal.


Well you would think people would learn something from this... but they wont. Heck, all people are really asked to do right now is stay home and sit on a couch, and they cant even do that right.

We are keeping a list of items we wish we had, or wish we had more of. When this all blows over, we'll work on those things. Right now, there aren't alot of things we really need or are short on (ok we noticed we dont have alot of shimp ****tail sauce, 1st world problems right? lol).

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Vanilla said:


> https://www.ksl.com/article/4673428...-to-help-state-recover-from-covid-19-pandemic
> 
> A plan! Someone put together a phased plan!!!! Genius, I tell ya.


I don't want this to get lost in all the doom and gloom. While the timelines on this aren't exactly the best ever, I think a plan that gives us a goal to work towards and knowing what will trigger each phase is VERY encouraging to me. I haven't read it all yet, but I'm liking that we have something to shoot for here.


----------



## Catherder

CPAjeff said:


> It'll be interesting to see what personal changes are made on the back-end of this deal - and I'm not talking about repenting.
> 
> I think people will start taking food storage more serious, saving more serious, preparing for a rainy day more serious, etc. While this ordeal is not over, I believe the silver lining is that more people will be prepared for the next 'big' thing because of going through this situation.
> 
> I've often wondered what it would've been like to be alive in 1900 - 1950. Two world wars, the great depression, and then all the progress. It's no wonder the folks who lived during those times learned to work hard and be frugal.


Excellent question. Remember, the 1900-1950 generation also dealt with the 1918 flu, annual polio outbreaks, measles, and other contagious diseases. Both my parents lost childhood friends and acquaintances to polio. I think they would politely pat us on the head and tell us to buck up and hang in there.

I agree that more people will take preparation seriously, some to extremes (37 bulk bricks of TP guy) but by and large, most will not. Some don't have the economic means to do so. Most will just revert to fat, dumb, and happy.

Personally, we have weathered this well as a family, but here are a few things I might think about going forward.

1. As for food and commodities, my wife had accumulated at least a 6 month supply of food long before this started and we haven't been affected that way in the least. She also purchased a brick of TP a week before there was a run on it, so we've been fine there, but we may put a bit more resources into non food household items that are used daily. Overall, my wifes skill in managing the food storage has been superb.

2. We have remained open and business has been as hectic as ever, but we have about a 2-3 month reserve of cash if we need it. I'm gratified we are OK there. Some of that is earmarked for some building repair and a new vehicle for me, so I'm hoping this blows over without having to dip into that.

3. I've been a buy-and-hold guy on my investments. I'm cautiously optimistic that things will come back in stocks, but I should have probably sold on some positions while things were going down to lock in some profits. I agree there will be some buying opportunities soon.

4. Nationally, I think our policymakers now see the need for investment into research and an enhanced response to emerging pathogens. How different would this be if we had the capability to produce a vaccine in 2 months, instead of what is projected now.

5. I wouldn't discount repenting either.  And bidet sales.


----------



## hondodawg

I just got my results back and it came back negative. 
All the symptoms but shortness of breath. 
Fever was 99.5 they say anything over 100 is serious 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## DallanC

My wife just got back from Costco. They had toilet paper, flour, dry foods (crackers etc) other misc things that have been absent a while (vitamins). People were casually shopping, no rushing or panic'd behavior.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Costco is always ahead of the curve. After they experienced the first wave they created policy to limit hoarding, especially TP. After that it just became a matter of time for logistics to be able to resupply. The thing they'll likely be lower on for a while is anything that disinfects, as those are actually being consumed more. 

The TP thing was just sad. We aren't crapping more all of a sudden. My SIL has been without TP for a week in the Bay Area after the panic hit. Just mailed her a care package after the order of giant rolls was cancelled by distributor (ran out). She didn't prepare enough on her own but the panic buying of TP just caught most people off guard. 

So it goes.


----------



## RandomElk16

I assume it was SLC Costco? Buddy posted the other day and they had an entire aisle 3-4 pallets wide of Kirkland TP. Probably 60+ pallets.


Ogden is an absolute disaster each day.


----------



## KineKilla

CPAjeff said:


> It'll be interesting to see what personal changes are made on the back-end of this deal - and I'm not talking about repenting.
> 
> I think people will start taking food storage more serious, saving more serious, preparing for a rainy day more serious, etc. While this ordeal is not over, I believe the silver lining is that more people will be prepared for the next 'big' thing because of going through this situation.
> 
> I've often wondered what it would've been like to be alive in 1900 - 1950. Two world wars, the great depression, and then all the progress. It's no wonder the folks who lived during those times learned to work hard and be frugal.


I bet you're wrong. People and society in general have short term memories. Once the fear and panic is gone, a vaccine is available and life has returned to "normal" people will soon forget and go back to their old ways.

This thing would have to stick around for years on end to change the mindset and culture we've created.

Just think of all the people who say "I'm not voting for these elected officials again! They don't get anything done!" and then when election time comes around and their scandalous or unproductive behavior has been forgotten they get re-elected.

Kids will likely remember this event fondly in the end. Remember that year when we got out of school 3 months early and were directly ordered to sit at home and do nothing all day? BEST YEAR EVER!

On another note: I still don't need any TP and I haven't bought a single roll nor been to Costco since this mess began. I've always made it a habit to stock up when I go there so I was already prepared for a short term emergency. Just got lucky I guess.


----------



## RandomElk16

KineKilla said:


> I bet you're wrong. People and society in general have short term memories. Once the fear and panic is gone, a vaccine is available and life has returned to "normal" people will soon forget and go back to their old ways.
> 
> This thing would have to stick around for years on end to change the mindset and culture we've created.
> 
> Just think of all the people who say "I'm not voting for these elected officials again! They don't get anything done!" and then when election time comes around and their scandalous or unproductive behavior has been forgotten they get re-elected.
> 
> Kids will likely remember this event fondly in the end. Remember that year when we got out of school 3 months early and were directly ordered to sit at home and do nothing all day? BEST YEAR EVER!


That's why everyone just looks to the government right now. They will again.

This should force real change, but I think it will just push people back into complacency though.


----------



## DallanC

RandomElk16 said:


> I assume it was SLC Costco? Buddy posted the other day and they had an entire aisle 3-4 pallets wide of Kirkland TP. Probably 60+ pallets.


Nah, UT county.

-DallanC


----------



## PBH

KineKilla said:


> People and society in general have short term memories....
> 
> Remember that year when we got out of school 3 months early and were directly ordered to sit at home and do nothing all day? BEST YEAR EVER!


Hey -- you guys remember when Yuba was kicking out fantastic walleye? Man, those were the days!

lol. Nailed it KineKilla. you nailed it.


----------



## Fowlmouth

I'm not sure how crowds are in other areas, but Tooele needs to pull their heads out of their a$$ and take this more serious.. Every day, every parking lot and every store is full of people. Social distancing doesn't exist out here. The sad part is that it's probably the same ding dongs out there every day trying to load up on items that are limited. I just don't get it. People are in panic mode, but they are not panicking for the right reason. They are more worried about hoarding stuff than they are about the virus itself.


----------



## backcountry

Officially community spread in St George. Need to talk to my wife but we are probably on full lockdown (shelter in place) as a household. It's south of us but there is so much interplay between our communities that we won't take a chance. We'd been buying essentials a limited number of times a week but will now likely rely on friends and family to refill fresh produce and the few other items we occasionally need. 

I spent most of February buying an extra serving of meat, frozen veggies and staples every trip. To be honest, I never thought we'd "need" them but that turned out to be untrue. We are ahead of the curve but will be using what we bought. All still a little surreal. 

I've had a glass of wine so can more honestly admit this slow roll of a disease it a bit overwhelming and frightening. I remain hopeful and proud of our communities yet recognize the statistics aren't friendly. 

I'll still post but wanted to make sure to put it out there that I wish each household the best during this time. Each of us will have different journies in the weeks to come but we are all in this together as a community, state and nation. Take care y'all and god speed.


----------



## BGD

I wonder what everyone thinks about the size of the LDS Church’s rainy day fund these days. I mean why would they need that much money anyway. It’s not like we are going to have a world wide natural disaster or something, right.


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> My wife just got back from Costco. They had toilet paper, flour, dry foods (crackers etc) other misc things that have been absent a while (vitamins). People were casually shopping, no rushing or panic'd behavior.
> 
> -DallanC


My wife went to the supermarket today too and reported that it was near normal. She even found some sale items she took advantage of. Maybe normalcy is just a Utah County thing. 



PBH said:


> Hey -- you guys remember when Yuba was kicking out fantastic walleye? Man, those were the days!


Yeah, fishermen remember the walleyes, and the Northern pike, and the jumbo perch, and the 5 lb rainbows after draining, and blame the DWR for "ruining" it every time.

Anglers memories are superior. It's the cognition and accuracy for detail of the said memories that is lacking.


----------



## middlefork

BGD said:


> I wonder what everyone thinks about the size of the LDS Church's rainy day fund these days. I mean why would they need that much money anyway. It's not like we are going to have a world wide natural disaster or something, right.


BUT, BUT what about the banking collapse?

Backcountry, Good luck and best wishes. At some point it an unfortunate reality that people we care about are no longer going to be here.

I have had the opportunity to share the final journey with a few people. I like to think I'm a little better seeing their journey.


----------



## RandomElk16

BGD said:


> I wonder what everyone thinks about the size of the LDS Church's rainy day fund these days. I mean why would they need that much money anyway. It's not like we are going to have a world wide natural disaster or something, right.


The wealth and savings isn't what is judged. The method is.

If you admit you are a global conglomerate it's quite different. Odd flex.


----------



## CPAjeff

Well, it looks like the massive stimulus bill passed. $2.2T - gulp. I hope the individuals who receive this money will use it wisely (i.e. invest in the market and make more with the house money given).

Honestly, I am not sure where I stand on this issue. On one hand, I think it is wonderful for people who truly need it - and I don't want to be apathetic to the realities of people's situations. On the other hand, handouts are damaging. 

Will stimulus packages and handouts to the general public be the new normal, anytime a 'crisis' hits? 

A few years ago my wife and I attended a celebration of marriage conference. One of the breakout sessions was on acts of service vs. expectations. The presenter stated it only took doing something three times for the act of service to be viewed as a new expectation. The example used was where one individual in the marriage got up early and fixed the other individual in the marriage a nice breakfast - doing such Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday now presented the new expectation for Thursday. If the breakfast wasn't made on Thursday, the kind acts of Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday were forgotten and all that was left was a hangry (yes hangry) individual on Thursday. I wonder if we are 33.33% of the way to a new expectation . . .


----------



## BGD

RandomElk16 said:


> BGD said:
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder what everyone thinks about the size of the LDS Church's rainy day fund these days. I mean why would they need that much money anyway. It's not like we are going to have a world wide natural disaster or something, right.
> 
> 
> 
> The wealth and savings isn't what is judged. The method is.
> 
> If you admit you are a global conglomerate it's quite different. Odd flex.
Click to expand...

 I heard many question/judge the amount of savings saying, "What will they ever do with all that $$$?" Or "No organization needs that much for a rainy day." I just find that the recent worldwide pandemic (and the earthquake here locally) adds a bit of additional perspective to those discussions of a couple months ago. I know first hand that the church started sending masks and other supplies around the world very early on and are working proactively to assist those already feeling the very real economic affects of Covid-19. I guess I just appreciate that they don't just preach self-reliance but actually walk the walk and I see the good they are able to do in a time of crisis like we have now because they are prepared.


----------



## johnnycake

CPAJeff, well stated.


----------



## BGD

backcountry said:


> I'll still post but wanted to make sure to put it out there that I wish each household the best during this time. Each of us will have different journies in the weeks to come but we are all in this together as a community, state and nation. Take care y'all and god speed.


 Best of luck Backcountry. I sincerely hope your household can avoid this plague. I hope you and your wife are able to have some great time with your MIL. ALS is so tough. Our neighbor a few doors down passed as a couple years ago from ALS. He was able to spend some good time with his family early on but It was very hard to watch his decline. I was with him in his home just a couple days before he passed. As much as I knew he would be missed, I was truly relieved when I got the word he no longer had to fight that terrible disease. Regardless, we are never truly prepared or ready when that time actually comes and a loved one passes. Best of luck. I hope you and your wife are able to enjoy the time you have left with your MIL.


----------



## RandomElk16

BGD said:


> I heard many question/judge the amount of savings saying, "What will they ever do with all that $$$?" Or "No organization needs that much for a rainy day." I just find that the recent worldwide pandemic (and the earthquake here locally) adds a bit of additional perspective to those discussions of a couple months ago. I know first hand that the church started sending masks and other supplies around the world very early on and are working proactively to assist those already feeling the very real economic affects of Covid-19. I guess I just appreciate that they don't just preach self-reliance but actually walk the walk and I see the good they are able to do in a time of crisis like we have now because they are prepared.


I won't turn this into a religious debate.. Just will agree to disagree on their finances.

I do hope they can(will) truly help make a difference to people around the world, both members or non. The have the means to do a lot!


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

PBH said:


> Hey -- you guys remember when Yuba was kicking out fantastic walleye? Man, those were the days!
> 
> Some of my best memories of my dad was fishing Yuba for walleye. ya that was awesome then


----------



## PBH

RandomElk16 said:


> I do hope they *continue to* truly help make a difference to people around the world, both members or non. The have the means to do a lot!


Fixed it for you. You're welcome.


----------



## willfish4food

I'm not one to turn down "free" money. But I'm more than a little frustrated with how the relief checks are being allocated. I qualify for the full check, but other than my investments that will eventually rebound, I have not been impacted at all financially from this virus. 

I wish they would have given the money to the states earmarked for extending/expanding unemployment benefits rather than shotgunning a bunch of money to people who may or may not need it. But then, I also don't think members from either side of the aisle should be sticking their pet projects in the bill when they have nothing to do with the economic impacts of the virus. So, what do I know?


----------



## brisket

The unemployment numbers are in. 3,283,000 people lost jobs last week. An all time record high.


----------



## Packout

willfish4food said:


> I'm not one to turn down "free" money. But I'm more than a little frustrated with how the relief checks are being allocated. I qualify for the full check, but other than my investments that will eventually rebound, I have not been impacted at all financially from this virus.
> 
> I wish they would have given the money to the states earmarked for extending/expanding unemployment benefits rather than shotgunning a bunch of money to people who may or may not need it. But then, I also don't think members from either side of the aisle should be sticking their pet projects in the bill when they have nothing to do with the economic impacts of the virus. So, what do I know?


I tend to agree. I hear guys say "I'm going to invest the payment in the market" or "I'm going to buy another gun" or "I'm going to save it for a vacation". If a person can say the above then they don't need the check. Too bad they can't have it on a card that only allows the purchase of housing, food, or service industry. And it must be used in 60 days. (And no, I won't be altruistic and send the money back if they send me some)


----------



## Critter

I'm in the boat of not needing it but I'll take it like others. 

I also thing that there will be a lot of new TV's and other non necessities purchased with it. I'm thinking of purchasing a few more ounces of silver with it. But then a new CC firearm might be nice.


----------



## Catherder

Packout said:


> I tend to agree. I hear guys say "I'm going to invest the payment in the market" or "I'm going to buy another gun" or "I'm going to save it for a vacation". If a person can say the above then they don't need the check. Too bad they can't have it on a card that only allows the purchase of housing, food, or service industry. And it must be used in 60 days. (And no, I won't be altruistic and send the money back if they send me some)


Agreed, but I think the problem is that the need for many folks is immediate and by the time the government figures out how to sort out those in need, the truly needy will be economically past their breaking point and the economic stimulus provided by the immediate spending will not happen.

Also agreed that bolstering the state unemployment programs is key, but the stimulus package does actually do that. I'm just glad that congress and the executive could stop playing games long enough to get something semi useful passed to help both individuals and businesses.


----------



## BGD

RandomElk16 said:


> I won't turn this into a religious debate.. Just will agree to disagree on their finances.
> 
> I do hope they can(will) truly help make a difference to people around the world, both members or non. The have the means to do a lot!


My intent was not to turn it into a religious debate so I appreciate your willingness not to do so. I heard so much scoffing or criticism (not necessarily from forum members but the general populace) about the "size" of the rainy day fund that I found the added dose of perspective interesting. The forum just gave me a place to wonder about it out loud. We certainly need all organizations with the means to step up and help out. My business was the recipient this week of a generous landlord that eliminated our next months rent in an effort to make sure we had resources to continue paying employees. I am hoping I am not the only one that has experienced such generosity.


----------



## 2full

A big part of the reason for the checks is that "they" want people to spend them to jump start the economy. They ones that need it can spend it on rent, food, etc.


The ones that don't need can use it to buy guns, toys, meals, etc. to help get the business community some help and put people back to work.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Why does the word, Inflation, come to mind? I'm no financial or economic guru, all I know is the gubment is due to take a big wet juicy bite out of our asses this April. Maybe this monopoly money will remove some of the butthurt from our savings account. -O,-


----------



## DallanC

Critter said:


> I'm thinking of purchasing a few more ounces of silver with it.


You haven't been following metals markets over the last 10 days. Basically with the run down in prices... its simply *gone*. Some of the biggest Bullion dealers in the USA are out of stock, they've sold nearly everything they had. Sure there are a few items here and there for sale, but the premium on top of price is stunningly insane. I've seen premiums at twice the price of silver spot, I've seen single silver eagles with the ask over $80 ... EVEN THOUGH SPOT WAS WELL UNDER $14!

Its absolutely unbelievable the disconnect between price and demand in the metals market. I'm also stunned to see page after page, on site after site, of items for sale marked "SOLD OUT".

The run on metals happened faster and more thoroughly than the run on Toilet Paper.

I do wish you well in your plans to get more, its a fantastic idea.

-DallanC


----------



## willfish4food

DallanC said:


> You haven't been following metals markets over the last 10 days. Basically with the run down in prices... its simply *gone*. Some of the biggest Bullion dealers in the USA are out of stock, they've sold nearly everything they had. Sure there are a few items here and there for sale, but the premium on top of price is stunningly insane. I've seen premiums at twice the price of silver spot, I've seen single silver eagles with the ask over $80 ... EVEN THOUGH SPOT WAS WELL UNDER $14!
> 
> Its absolutely unbelievable the disconnect between price and demand in the metals market. I'm also stunned to see page after page, on site after site, of items for sale marked "SOLD OUT".
> 
> The run on metals happened faster and more thoroughly than the run on Toilet Paper.
> 
> I do wish you well in your plans to get more, its a fantastic idea.
> 
> -DallanC


You've not been looking in the right places. I got an ad banner with a company selling 1 and 2 oz coins BELOW spot value. I jumped on it and sunk my life savings on all I could get. I even pre-spent my COVID stimulus check that I shouldn't be getting on it. Man I can't wait till they get here. I'm going to be sitting pretty soon enough.

The sad thing is, I bet there are some people who have bought those coins. Best case scenario they get a overpriced silver plated piece of junk.

I'm fine with a reasonable markup for processed stamped silver. But, the markup insanity right now is real. I found some legit sites with silver coins, but I refuse to buy when I'd have to wait till the spot price nearly doubles just to break even.


----------



## willfish4food

2full said:


> A big part of the reason for the checks is that "they" want people to spend them to jump start the economy. They ones that need it can spend it on rent, food, etc.
> 
> The ones that don't need can use it to buy guns, toys, meals, etc. to help get the business community some help and put people back to work.


The problem is, I think the type of spending most who don't need the money will do is not going to help the economy. The sectors of the economy that are hurting the most are hurting not because people won't spend money on them, but because we can't. Food service, Airlines, entertainment, ect. are where we are not able to spend money even if we wanted to. Retail sales, especially those with an online purchase and deliver option have not been affected by this downturn. At least that's what I'm seeing based on stock prices and companies announcing they are hiring not firing.

The only thing that will actually save the economy is getting this COVID thing under control and life back to "normal." Honestly, this stimulus check thing is 100% just another attempt to buy votes by both sides of the aisle.


----------



## willfish4food

Catherder said:


> Agreed, but I think the problem is that the need for many folks is immediate and by the time the government figures out how to sort out those in need, the truly needy will be economically past their breaking point and the economic stimulus provided by the immediate spending will not happen.
> 
> Also agreed that bolstering the state unemployment programs is key, but the stimulus package does actually do that. I'm just glad that congress and the executive could stop playing games long enough to get something semi useful passed to help both individuals and businesses.


I agree. I'm just frustrated with the inefficiencies and political games that continue to hurt our country. The House and Senate wasted over a week jockeying to secure money for their special interests and pointing fingers when they could have at least approved and sent the portion of the money intended for households impacted by layoffs to the states where it could have been utilized much quicker for unemployment. I also recognize that there are provisions in what was passed to help with unemployment and housing for those directly financially impacted, but I think my check and many others would help the country as a whole added to those funds instead of my projects around the house.


----------



## RandomElk16

Will brings up good points. Lets pretend this is over in two weeks. 

What do service industries look like (salons, tattoo places, independent gyms, etc...). They have lost weeks of income, while still having bills. They can't suddenly sell out all their inventory because they can only provide X amount of service per day to catch up. Did the check pay all their bills? Maybe, maybe not. 

The reality is there will be many many businesses who don't recover. There will be many jobs that are completely lost (small business employs 49% of private industry).

I agree with others - I don't want or need the check. Others do. But I am conflicted because I feel like when we try and discriminate in these situations we get it wrong. A lot of people get money that shouldn't (not necessarily because they don't need money - but they are the malicious ones who already ride handouts). There were concerns from both sides the bill does so much that people like clerks are more incentivized NOT to go back to work. 


All I know, financial analysis like this takes significantly longer than a couple weeks to get even remotely right. It also takes people significantly smarter than congress. Same reason why our federal budget is wrong every year lol.


----------



## CPAjeff

2full said:


> A big part of the reason for the checks is that "they" want people to spend them to jump start the economy. They ones that need it can spend it on rent, food, etc.
> 
> The ones that don't need can use it to buy guns, toys, meals, etc. to help get the business community some help and put people back to work.


This! It has been a crazy swing in the market the past couple days with 'rumor' of the stimulus bill being passed. People haven't even received their money, and I am sure the vast majority of it has already been spent, or solid laid plans to spend it.

The rumor alone was enough to help the markets rebound a hefty amount.


----------



## DallanC

The big 3 automakers are in super deep crap with plant closures. This is having a complete meltdown in the automobile maker supply chain. Read an article last night Dana who supplies the automotive industry is in massive trouble as they were still in full production when all orders got cancelled from one day to the next. They are laying off people by the thousands trying to stop the outflow of cash. 

The damage done to this economy will eventually, kill 10x more people than cornavirus.

Like Brad Pitts character said in the movie The Big Short: ""Every one percent unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die"

-DallanC


----------



## caddis8

RandomElk16 said:


> I agree with others - I don't want or need the check. Others do. But I am conflicted because I feel like when we try and discriminate in these situations we get it wrong. A lot of people get money that shouldn't (not necessarily because they don't need money - but they are the malicious ones who already ride handouts). There were concerns from both sides the bill does so much that people like clerks are more incentivized NOT to go back to work.


I figure that if a check is given to me, I'll save part (most), and then give it to the local economy. I've got some projects around (cement pad), a new couch to buy, or a bed. My wife wants the bed, but crap almighty she wants an expensive one. I've already given $ to some families I know that needed some additional help. I need to replenish my cash kitty.

I did just buy 13.5 dozen goose decoys at a great price. My wife doesn't agree, but it was a great deal.


----------



## willfish4food

The upswing in the market is undeniable. There are so many stocks I wish I had pulled the trigger on last Thursday; on some I would have more than doubled my money already. I would think that's mostly triggered by the 500 billion allocated to subsidized loans and the suspension of the SS tax for large businesses and to a lesser extent the 360 billion set aside for small businesses. I don't have issue with those allocations for the most part especially since there are incentives to keep people employed. I also like the 260B earmarked for unemployment benefits, 150B to healthcare, and a lot of other aspects of the bill. 

I'm not a fan of the choice of allocation criteria for the checks to individuals, and I'm skeptical how much bearing that part of the bill helped the economy. If those payments do cause an uptick it will be temporary. In my opinion, a one time bump of $2400 per couple and $500 per kid does not buy a lot of long term stimulus. But, it wouldn't surprise me if I was wrong.


----------



## brisket

The problem with this is the country is broke. The 2 trillion doesn’t exist, so the Federal Reserve creates it out of thin air, resulting in price inflation. All this “stimulus” does is take it from one pocket (via price inflation) and put it in the next. Everything will get more expensive on the other side of this crisis, especially with the supply of goods low. Never mind the moral hazard of individual and corporate bailouts. It reduces incentive to save for a rainy day in the future.


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## backcountry

Some good news, at least for UK. Hopefully we'll have similar success in US

https://thehill.com/policy/technolo...ns-new-ventilator-will-produce-15000-to-fight


----------



## backcountry

From 4 days ago:



backcountry said:


> There is nothing minor about the curve we are seeing. Ours is the fastest spread of any nation so far and we have one of the least organized responses. If the math keeps up we could easily see a million confirmed cases in less than 3 weeks. But there are so many variables at play that it's hard to guesstimate outcomes anymore.
> 
> Safe to guess that we'll be leading the works [sic] in confirmed cases within 10 days though. Unless we get more organized with our response.


Sadly we are going to become the "worst infected" country within hours if the math keeps up. That's half the time I conservatively guestimated. Our infection rate is faster than any nation to date; hard to know how southern hemisphere countries will fare this far out but there are some cities there it could burn through like wildfire if we don't find a cure/vaccine/treatment.

Given we only have a few hotspots at the moment it's hard not to imagine a scenario of our nation not reaching 1 million confirmed infections in the original 3 weeks I guessed. I'd be happy to be wrong but it's likely we could exceed it at this rate.

Fingers crossed most states prepare better than NY. A huge sigh of relief that our fatality rate is so much lower than Italy. I hope that keeps up and isn't just an artifact of how our geography is distributed so differently.

*Took less than an hour to have enough positives to put us over the top. (Edit at 245).


----------



## Critter

As more test become accessible and the turnaround with results gets quicker it is only normal that the number of affected people will increase. 

Right now I have heard of test results taking over a week to come back here in the US.

I can't ever think of the delays that other countries might be having and only being able to actually count the ones that are in a doctor's care

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


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## backcountry

Critter said:


> As more test become accessible and the turnaround with results gets quicker it is only normal that the number of affected people will increase.
> 
> Right now I have heard of test results taking over a week to come back here in the US.
> 
> I can't ever think of the delays that other countries might be having and only being able to actually count the ones that are in a doctor's care
> 
> Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


Most other countries aren't experiencing our delay. The CDC ran into an unknown snag early on before they released protocol to states. We are in a unique situation that way.

There is definitely an impact of testing delay on the curve but its the only data we have.


----------



## backcountry

First official case of community spread in Iron County now as well. Had hoped it take a few extra days.

https://swuhealth.org/southwest-utah-health-news/


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## 3arabians

I’m worried now as someone with underlying health conditions. I am surprised we just blew past China so fast this week to become the most infected country in the world. I take some comfort that our death rate is way lower though. My wife put me in full lockdown10 days ago. I have been outside twice since, one of those times I did a back flop down my window well in the yard playing corn hole with the fam I was so excited to be outside haha. Life is a real pain sometimes. 

My daughter came home today and told me her bff is worried because she has shortness of breath and a cough now but no fever yet. I interrogated her about her contact with her over the past few days and I’m a little more nervous for my family and I now. Shows you how easily it can creep in on the more vulnerable even when they seem to be taking all the precautions you can. Stay safe everyone!!


----------



## KineKilla

Critter said:


> I'm in the boat of not needing it but I'll take it like others.
> 
> I also thing that there will be a lot of new TV's and other non necessities purchased with it. I'm thinking of purchasing a few more ounces of silver with it. But then a new CC firearm might be nice.


Same boat. I'm seeing my opportunity to finally buy that Vortex spotter I've been saving for.


----------



## Critter

KineKilla said:


> Same boat. I'm seeing my opportunity to finally buy that Vortex spotter I've been saving for.


I took care of that problem a couple of years ago when Al's opened up in Orem. They had one on sale and I decided that it was the best price that I was ever going to see on a new unit so I grabbed it.


----------



## Critter

3arabians said:


> I am surprised we just blew past China so fast this week to become the most infected country in the world. I take some comfort that our death rate is way lower though.
> 
> !


Seeing as far as populations are concerned there are only a couple of countries that have more than we the US do it is only normal for this to happen.

Then if you can make sure that China is accurately reporting the cases and who really knows about India and their ability to test and confirm not to mention report it.


----------



## backcountry

Critter said:


> 3arabians said:
> 
> 
> 
> I am surprised we just blew past China so fast this week to become the most infected country in the world. I take some comfort that our death rate is way lower though.
> 
> !
> 
> 
> 
> Seeing as far as populations are concerned there are only a couple of countries that have more than we the US do it is only normal for this to happen.
> 
> Then if you can make sure that China is accurately reporting the cases and who really knows about India and their ability to test and confirm not to mention report it.
Click to expand...

Not quite true at this phase in curve. A larger population obviously has a larger overall potential but that shows later in spread. Our case rate is not normal and could have been avoided. Our federal response has been unacceptable given how much time we had to prepare.

The greatest nation in the world will have some serious questions to answer in the months and years to come. But calling our unprecedented transmission rate "normal" isn't the answer.

Why weren't we testing every passenger coming into the US for symptoms, especially fever, back as early as January?

Why haven't we used the pandemic playbooks created after the Ebola crisis?

Why didn't the federal government use it's powers to promise the purchase of PPE and ventilators to increase production months ago?

Why weren't governors notified of intelligence briefings about this possible outcome back in January, when the WH and Congress were informed?

Why don't states have more medical equipment surplus after two decades or more of preparing for a global event like this?

What caused the testing delay by the CDC and why weren't there redundancies built in? Why did we wait so long to release production to states and private entities?

We still have time to bring the full weight of our nation's ability to bare on this crisis but it's not happening yet. I'm still hopeful but it's getting harder by the day, especially now that hospitals in our own country are being overwhelmed. We are now seeing the virus spread into the first responders and healthcare workers which will impact the fatality rate (China's early quarantine meant other districts sent tens of thousands of healthcare workers to Wuhan/Hubei; that type of response won't happen with such broad spread stateside).

Sorry but the scale of our nation's impact was preventable and anything but normal. We should be proud and 100% supportive of every healthcare worker and essential personnel keeping the hospitals and country running. But we need to hold those in power accountable for the unnecessary risk our nation's failures put those professionals in during this pandemic.


----------



## backcountry

3arabians said:


> I'm worried now as someone with underlying health conditions. I am surprised we just blew past China so fast this week to become the most infected country in the world. I take some comfort that our death rate is way lower though. My wife put me in full lockdown10 days ago. I have been outside twice since, one of those times I did a back flop down my window well in the yard playing corn hole with the fam I was so excited to be outside haha. Life is a real pain sometimes.
> 
> My daughter came home today and told me her bff is worried because she has shortness of breath and a cough now but no fever yet. I interrogated her about her contact with her over the past few days and I'm a little more nervous for my family and I now. Shows you how easily it can creep in on the more vulnerable even when they seem to be taking all the precautions you can. Stay safe everyone!!


Sorry to hear it, 3Barbarians. It's getting too close for comfort for millions of households. I hope you and your family fare well and I hope it the friend's illness turns out to be something mundane.

I know several people in self-quarantine from contact with potential patients. It's a nightmare waiting almost a week to find out. My wife just found out today their first line staff is being tested for Covid-19 after being symptomatic and testing negative for seasonal flu strains. I'm holding my breath as their last contact was 10 days ago and were already using social distancing protocol.

Hope you can get outside with the family again soon and we can all look back on this with a sigh of relief.


----------



## weaversamuel76

backcountry said:


> Not quite true at this phase in curve. A larger population obviously has a larger overall potential but that shows later in spread. Our case rate is not normal and could have been avoided. Our federal response has been unacceptable given how much time we had to prepare.
> 
> The greatest nation in the world will have some serious questions to answer in the months and years to come. But calling our unprecedented transmission rate "normal" isn't the answer.
> 
> Why weren't we testing every passenger coming into the US for symptoms, especially fever, back as early as January?
> 
> Why haven't we used the pandemic playbooks created after the Ebola crisis?
> 
> Why didn't the federal government use it's powers to promise the purchase of PPE and ventilators to increase production months ago?
> 
> Why weren't governors notified of intelligence briefings about this possible outcome back in January, when the WH and Congress were informed?
> 
> Why don't states have more medical equipment surplus after two decades or more of preparing for a global event like this?
> 
> What caused the testing delay by the CDC and why weren't there redundancies built in? Why did we wait so long to release production to states and private entities?
> 
> We still have time to bring the full weight of our nation's ability to bare on this crisis but it's not happening yet. I'm still hopeful but it's getting harder by the day, especially now that hospitals in our own country are being overwhelmed. We are now seeing the virus spread into the first responders and healthcare workers which will impact the fatality rate (China's early quarantine meant other districts sent tens of thousands of healthcare workers to Wuhan/Hubei; that type of response won't happen with such broad spread stateside).
> 
> Sorry but the scale of our nation's impact was preventable and anything but normal. We should be proud and 100% supportive of every healthcare worker and essential personnel keeping the hospitals and country running. But we need to hold those in power accountable for the unnecessary risk our nation's failures put those professionals in during this pandemic.


Those in power have already rewarded themselves and all thier buddies with a pocket full of cash. No doubt plenty of money has been made last couple weeks on the backs of a suffering middle class.
They'll be rewarded again in November by the same people they are punishing now.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


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## RandomElk16

The way China handled it literally allowed for it to be a global pandemic. I won't praise anything about the way they handled it.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> The way China handled it literally allowed for it to be a global pandemic. I won't praise anything about the way they handled it.


Who is praising China? I don't see anyone doing that.

And by definition it takes more than one country's errors for a virus/disease to become a global pandemic. China, Italy and the US top that list at the moment.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Who is praising China? I don't see anyone doing that.
> 
> And by definition it takes more than one country's errors for a virus/disease to become a global pandemic. China, Italy and the US top that list at the moment.


I didn't say you. I said I won't.

As far as what you are saying about more than one country and what your last post said about "China's early response" - China didn't have an early response and allowed thousands to flea the province and people to travel around the world.

Yeah it takes more than one country, but I tend to put the most blame on the country where it started that then tried to cover it up and lie about it's severity and RO.


----------



## Jedidiah

China lied about the start of it, and they're lying about how many cases they have now. If you believe they have suddenly dropped the infection rate as much as they're saying they have then I have some real estate to sell you. They need to be brought to task for this and the other recent outbreaks, they know the rest of the world is against them on this as they should be, and they're trying to run a PR campaign to avoid the severity of the fallout when we do all come down on them. The harshness of the response should reflect the millions that could end up dying as a result of their carelessness.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Who is praising China? I don't see anyone doing that.
> 
> And by definition it takes more than one country's errors for a virus/disease to become a global pandemic. China, Italy and the US top that list at the moment.
> 
> 
> 
> I didn't say you. I said I won't.
> 
> As far as what you are saying about more than one country and what your last post said about "China's early response" - China didn't have an early response and allowed thousands to flea the province and people to travel around the world.
> 
> Yeah it takes more than one country, but I tend to put the most blame on the country where it started that then tried to cover it up and lie about it's severity and RO.
Click to expand...

Make no mistake, I firmly believe China has plenty of blame, especially with it's acceptance of wet markets. I hope the ban they created in response to Covid-19 is permanent and remains enforced. Just to name one issue their authoritarian regime is accountable for. I hope after this all settles down that we have a national and international response that matches the caliber of China's mistakes and choices.

But to clarify, if you are going to quote someone do it accurately. I did not say China's early response, as you put in quotes. I said "China's early quarantine". And it was done early and severely for an outbreak. Within 25 days of the CCDC being involved, China shutdown Hubei and Wuhan. Was it quick enough to contain it? Definitely not. But from analysis, no other quarantine of that scale, one involving more than 60 million people, has been instituted for a novel virus so quickly. (If I am historically wrong on that I'll follow links people provide)

We didn't see a similar domestic response by our central government that matches the severity of this disease. Our response has to be different because of our Constitition but our federal government had the means to do better than we did. Our CDC knew about the initial pneumonia outbreak by the end of December at the latest. We had our first cases stateside Jan 21st. I again applaud the ban on international flights from China soon thereafter; Trump likely played his cards right there despite conventional wisdom from past pandemics. But since then our federal government squandered precious time. No other country is to blame for why we as nation didn't do better given how soon we knew about the potential threat. And make no mistake, from detailed reporting we know how early our federal government knew about this threat.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Our CDC knew about the initial pneumonia outbreak by the end of December at the latest.
> 
> And make no mistake, from detailed reporting we know how early our federal government knew about this threat.


There was no intent to misquote you. "Early quarantine" occurred almost a month after the outbreak so I guess we have different definitions of early. Granted they responded faster than others, they were also the epicenter. Which is why all of our "hotspots" are ports of entry to the US.

From the WHO website:

• A pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the WHO Country Office in China on 31 December 2019.

So we know they weren't informed until then. I wish they were told before our CDC was, based on what you are saying. I haven't seen the reporting you are speaking of as early as December. Only that we had a CDC plan in early January. We were also being told it wasn't severe and had a low RO... Those things are going to impact our response a lot.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Our CDC knew about the initial pneumonia outbreak by the end of December at the latest.
> 
> And make no mistake, from detailed reporting we know how early our federal government knew about this threat.
> 
> 
> 
> There was no intent to misquote you. "Early quarantine" occurred almost a month after the outbreak so I guess we have different definitions of early. Granted they responded faster than others, they were also the epicenter. Which is why all of our "hotspots" are ports of entry to the US.
> 
> From the WHO website:
> 
> • A pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the WHO Country Office in China on 31 December 2019.
> 
> So we know they weren't informed until then. I wish they were told before our CDC was, based on what you are saying. I haven't seen the reporting you are speaking of as early as December. Only that we had a CDC plan in early January. We were also being told it wasn't severe and had a low RO... Those things are going to impact our response a lot.
Click to expand...

Could you show me the reports the WH or CDC were receiving that said it wasn't severe? I haven't seen anything like that.

And the R naught is a relatively low 2.2, it's roughly in the ballpark of the seasonal flu. For comparison measles is 12 to 18. The earlier estimates were actually higher for Covid-19 and have steadily dropped. This virus doesn't appear extremely contagious, especially compared to historic diseases. It's the fact that most people are asymptomatic for longer than other diseases like the seasonal flu that is so confounding.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Could you show me the reports the WH or CDC were receiving that said it wasn't severe? I haven't seen anything like that.


Neither of us are members of the White House or CDC... So we don't have those.

Here is an interesting read:

https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-...-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html

China came out and said they weren't seeing human-to-human transmission, certainly makes it seem less severe, No? This will dig into their not-so-early response and why they alone can be held responsible for a pandemic. Not "multiple countries". They lied about a lot of stuff. Action 3 weeks earlier, per this, could have drastically reduced the virus.

They were more worried about PR.


----------



## Jedidiah

You guys keep talking like the first time China had an inkling of this was on December 31st. There were reports of a highly contagious pneumonia back in mid December. The first case was traced back to Dec. 1, but the first large group was seen on 12/21. Dr. Lei Wenliang warned fellow doctors on 12/30 and was essentially put on house arrest for it, but that was the real reason China even started doing anything about it.

We'll never really know how early they knew about it (possibly earlier than December) but indications are definitely that they knew and tried to suppress that information, and that they knew early enough that it would have made a difference.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> And the R naught is a relatively low 2.2, it's roughly in the ballpark of the seasonal flu.


Flu is 1.3, while research is still figuring out true RO of this and estimate 2-3.

1.3 to say 2.5 doesn't sound like much, but that's twice as contagious. Seems like a big deal.



Jedidiah said:


> You guys keep talking like the first time China had an inkling of this was on December 31st. There were reports of a highly contagious pneumonia back in mid December. The first case was traced back to Dec. 1, but the first large group was seen on 12/21. Dr. Lei Wenliang warned fellow doctors on 12/30 and was essentially put on house arrest for it, but that was the real reason China even started doing anything about it.
> 
> We'll never really know how early they knew about it (possibly earlier than December) but indications are definitely that they knew and tried to suppress that information, and that they knew early enough that it would have made a difference.


See the article I posted.. goes in good detail about this.


----------



## Vanilla

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1243348781073985536
I don't know how to share the video without the link to the tweet. But this was interesting. Some of us have been asking the question about the models for weeks now.


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1243348781073985536
> I don't know how to share the video without the link to the tweet. But this was interesting. Some of us have been asking the question about the models for weeks now.


Pretty sure our boy Oli was on here quoting the 2-3 million deaths.

If China stays below 10k and we hit 2 million... Then pull out the tin foil.

The thing I like most about the video is that she didn't guess on the actuals and said why.


----------



## DallanC

Again, more people will die as a result of the tanking of the economy, loss of jobs etc etc... than ever will from Covid19.


-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> You guys keep talking like the first time China had an inkling of this was on December 31st. There were reports of a highly contagious pneumonia back in mid December. The first case was traced back to Dec. 1, but the first large group was seen on 12/21. Dr. Lei Wenliang warned fellow doctors on 12/30 and was essentially put on house arrest for it, but that was the real reason China even started doing anything about it.
> 
> We'll never really know how early they knew about it (possibly earlier than December) but indications are definitely that they knew and tried to suppress that information, and that they knew early enough that it would have made a difference.


My generic response to authoritarian regimes is to assume they suppress information for their own benefit.

A small cluster of severe pneumonia cases isn't exactly an indication of a pandemic in the making. The central government of China definitely had their hackles up by mid-to-late December when they sent out the CCDC to investigate. It took another little bit to identify it as a novel coronavirus.

All indications are that scientist and doctors started ringing the bell soon thereafter and the central government was slow to respond accordingly, if not actively trying to manage the public response. Sound familiar to what our administration did?

In hindsight, they "should have" shutdown the district and cancelled such big events as the New Year celebration sooner, probably at least a week sooner.

But we had the benefit of watching and learning from them and what has our federal government done? Cancelled flights from China? Yes. But other than that we've had little to no coordination from the federal government. They downplayed the risk to the public for 6 weeks. They outright lied about it to us. And they failed to show any initiative when they literally have "playbooks" for this exact scenario. No amount of China's errors can be blamed for our inaction from mid-January onward. It's deflection, plain and simple.

I'll say it again, the greatest nation in the world had a chance to tamp this down much sooner and they failed miserably. Not only did they fail but: the President (and others) lied to our faces; and at least a few Senators allegedly cashed out stocks before the crash while telling citizens to keep buying. There will be hell to pay for these individuals if they keep putting themselves above the interest of citizen's lives. I have zero control over what happens to Xi and his cronies but we do have influence over America's response and as of last night it appears to me the administration is not taking this seriously as the scope of the disease demands.


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> Again, more people will die as a result of the tanking of the economy, loss of jobs etc etc... than ever will from Covid19.
> 
> -DallanC


We don't know that yet by any means. Especially if hospitals become overwhelmed, like they are in NY and parts of the south. As hospitals become overwhelmed and healthcare workers become sick they will start to triage cases more severely. They are already doing that with non-Covid medical issues. Despite best practices, they are sending home patients with pneumonia with limited oversight. Beds are becoming scarce for day-to-day demands, including pregnancies, etc.

The full toll of Covid-19 related deaths won't be known for at least a year, similar to seasonal flu numbers.

Pandemics definitely have compounding, secondary casualties. One mentioned are the domestic violence victims on the increase. But there are also going to be unusual benefits, like a predictable decrease in DUI related deaths from bars being shutdown. None of those are enough reason to not respond to pandemics aggressively, they are simply reasons to be more vigilant and increase community support.

We are seeing more of this economic narrative circulate across the country. I'm not sure anyone here is saying the cure is worse than the disease but its a dangerous line of reasoning. We are capable of responding to both needs without accepting unnecessary casualties in either arena.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> And the R naught is a relatively low 2.2, it's roughly in the ballpark of the seasonal flu.
> 
> 
> 
> Flu is 1.3, while research is still figuring out true RO of this and estimate 2-3.
> 
> 1.3 to say 2.5 doesn't sound like much, but that's twice as contagious. Seems like a big deal.
> 
> 
> 
> Jedidiah said:
> 
> 
> 
> You guys keep talking like the first time China had an inkling of this was on December 31st. There were reports of a highly contagious pneumonia back in mid December. The first case was traced back to Dec. 1, but the first large group was seen on 12/21. Dr. Lei Wenliang warned fellow doctors on 12/30 and was essentially put on house arrest for it, but that was the real reason China even started doing anything about it.
> 
> We'll never really know how early they knew about it (possibly earlier than December) but indications are definitely that they knew and tried to suppress that information, and that they knew early enough that it would have made a difference.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> See the article I posted.. goes in good detail about this.
Click to expand...

Your original comment was that they said the R naught was low....it is and is actually lower than initially predicted. It is double most strains of seasonal flu but an R0 of 2.2 is definitely within the ballpark of seasonal flu, ie low, on a spectrum of historic diseases. It's exponentially less than the measles and even less than other coronaviruses like SARS.

This was a scientific paper released 7 days ago:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/#_NBK554776_pubdet_


----------



## DallanC

backcountry said:


> We don't know that yet by any means.


But we do know unemployment filings are coming in at a dramatic exponential rate.

As one of the best scenes in the movie Big Short says, "1% rise in unemployement 40,000 people die.

(there are several fbombs in this clip for those offended by such)








> The full toll of Covid-19 related deaths won't be known for at least a year, similar to seasonal flu numbers.


Covid 19 mortality would have to rise dramatically to come close to catching up with the unemployement rate, and implied resultant mortality.

We are at 1,543'ish deaths in the US currently? Tragic for sure, but the amount of people who have lost jobs, and will soon loose jobs... its going to be really bad for a long time.



> We are seeing more of this economic narrative circulate across the country. I'm not sure anyone here is saying the cure is worse than the disease but its a dangerous line of reasoning. We are capable of responding to both needs without accepting unnecessary casualties in either arena.


True. But IMO the damage done by the mass lock-downs was a gross overreaction...

Time will tell how this all shakes out, but it looks bleak.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

I'm sorry but the theoretical statistics of the movie the Big Short do not hold water against the literal deaths happening right now because of Covid-19. 

And I'm not aware of any lockdown stateside. That term came about from China in which they literally welded metal walls around districts. Yes, we have shelter in place orders across the country. Last I saw it affected about 1 in 5 Americans. Definitely huge and deliberating to families and the economy. The unemployment numbers should frighten us.

Wether or not it's having an impact? You just have to compare the curves between NY and CA who initially experienced similar infections but have drastically different scenarios now. The exponential math for NY is absolutely frightening right now, even after their delayed restrictions. 
They have ten times as many infections and five times as many deaths as CA. And hospitals only started being overwhelmed recently so we haven't remotely seen the peak yet. Luckily the fatality rate is lower than Italy but I'm not sure that trend will hold now that the NY healthcare system is beyond capacity and doctors/first responders/healthcare workers are getting infected.


----------



## DallanC

One in 4 US workers now furloughed or lost jobs now. Very sad.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...oll-finds/ar-BB11OwCc?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=U345DHP

3 States are on lockdown (although the term varies on just what that means)

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...-told-to-stay-home-as-pandemics-reach-worsens

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> One in 4 US workers now furloughed or lost jobs now. Very sad.
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...oll-finds/ar-BB11OwCc?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=U345DHP
> 
> 3 States are on lockdown (although the term varies on just what that means)
> 
> https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...-told-to-stay-home-as-pandemics-reach-worsens
> 
> -DallanC


The unemployment or underemployment is definitely sad. I never disagreed with that reality. I do think its problematic to compare hypothetical numbers from a movie to actual infection and fatality figures happening as we speak.

I have yet to see a shelter in place order that comes close to the language of "lockdown". Like many Americans I think the media, including the article linked, has done a poor job at nuance. Our states' orders aren't remotely like China's draconian lockdown quarantines. I think you know that as well and understand that using the lockdown language blurs some critical lines. No welded fences. No police dragging citizens around. No forced checkpoints. Etc.

I mean massive groups were still sun bathing on California beaches last weekend which isn't something you would have remotely seen an equivalent of in China. Chicago had to close its parks because of big groups of people playing basketball; same contrast.

Nuance and distinction matter here. Especially if we are talking about how panic and scale matter.


----------



## RandomElk16

There is significant studies correlating unemployment and economic crisis with suicide. 

Specifically looking at 2007-2009 they rose over 15% I believe. 


It's wrong to use "nuance", but that goes both ways because it keeps being used on this thread for Corona too.


----------



## Hunttilidrop

I like herberts directive. Not jumping to conclusions and going all draconian. Leaving it up to county majors to inforce stricter regulations when needed. I really thought we’d be shut down today except essential services. Kudos to him for playing it safe for all of us!


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> There is significant studies correlating unemployment and economic crisis with suicide.
> 
> Specifically looking at 2007-2009 they rose over 15% I believe.
> 
> It's wrong to use "nuance", but that goes both ways because it keeps being used on this thread for Corona too.


I'm fully aware of such studies. Recessions and economy play a huge role in mental health. But those are hypotheticals and correlations. That is fundamentally different than watching a disease actually kill people daily. We are watching causation in action. I get the nuance.

In the last week we've seen a (figurative) tidal wave of antagonism towards mitigation strategies and using hypothetical economic impacts on health to justify that. These compounding factors are important and damning but using them to argue against a concerted response to a global pandemic? That's a pretty treacherous line. Most folks here haven't gone that far but the shadow of that rhetoric hangs heavy.

It was just a few days ago that Rep Dan Patrick said on cable "'As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?...And if that's the exchange, I'm all in."

Those words, and their implications, are hideous for a government official to even utter nonetheless push so boldly to a cable news audience.


----------



## backcountry

Quarantine roulette is a dangerous game. Month 2 will get ugly.


----------



## middlefork

backcountry said:


> Quarantine roulette is a dangerous game. Month 2 will get ugly.


Probably will. It certainly sucks that people think they have free will. But that is what happens in a free society.

If you are worried hunker down and do the best you can. Otherwise people are going to do what people do. Your only defense is what you can control.

(coming from an old fart with risks)


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Quarantine roulette is a dangerous game. Month 2 will get ugly.
> 
> 
> 
> Probably will. It certainly sucks that people think they have free will. But that is what happens in a free society.
> 
> If you are worried hunker down and do the best you can. Otherwise people are going to do what people do. Your only defense is what you can control.
> 
> (coming from an old fart with risks)
Click to expand...

Lots of hair to lose? (See photo).


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> Quarantine roulette is a dangerous game. Month 2 will get ugly.


Learning how to cut your own hair?


----------



## backcountry

Lone_Hunter said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Quarantine roulette is a dangerous game. Month 2 will get ugly.
> 
> 
> 
> Learning how to cut your own hair?
Click to expand...

Offered my MIL to buzz my hair for entertainment. She tried hard but her hands are too weak. But she laughed, smiled and was having fun the entire time my wife cut it off. Good memories.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> Offered my MIL to buzz my hair for entertainment. She tried hard but her hands are too weak. But she laughed, smiled and was having fun the entire time my wife cut it off. Good memories.


A couple kitchen trashbags, cut open to lay flat, then taped together works as a great drop cloth. Stand on it, cut your hair in the mirror (or have someone do it for you as you sit on a chair), brush yourself off, fold the drop cloth together, and chuck it in the trash.

Of course, kitchen trash bags may become in short supply at some point, so who knows. :roll:


----------



## backcountry

Sounds like POTUS is considering a federal quarantine of NY, NJ and parts of CT. Could be a key decision and a relatively rare one in this country. Tough call but hard not to consider support of an effort to slow the spread. I don't envy people there and it's a gut wrenching consideration.

I just wish he'd also send as many respirators as possible (while triaging other state needs as well) instead of talking about his "feeling" on the issue and making statements about his need for appreciation. We need as much logistical coordination and effort from the federal government right now as humanly possible if we hope to minimize the death toll.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I'm fully aware of such studies. Recessions and economy play a huge role in mental health. But those are hypotheticals and correlations. That is fundamentally different than watching a disease actually kill people daily. We are watching causation in action. I get the nuance.
> 
> In the last week we've seen a (figurative) tidal wave of antagonism towards mitigation strategies and using hypothetical economic impacts on health to justify that. These compounding factors are important and damning but using them to argue against a concerted response to a global pandemic? That's a pretty treacherous line. Most folks here haven't gone that far but the shadow of that rhetoric hangs heavy.
> 
> It was just a few days ago that Rep Dan Patrick said on cable "'As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?...And if that's the exchange, I'm all in."
> 
> Those words, and their implications, are hideous for a government official to even utter nonetheless push so boldly to a cable news audience.


Based on the "data" at the beginning of this thread vs now, we can say most of what has been said about this virus has been hypothetical too.

We are watching an economic collapse in front of our eyes too.

It's odd - you felt our response to the virus was too late and pathetic yet are concerned with us trying to have an early response to the coming economic issues (which "correlate" with mental health, domestic health, etc...).


----------



## 2full

I went downtown and got my hair cut this am. 
The Holme's boys said today was their last open day for a bit. 
They are going to take next week off, and see where it goes from there. 

Guess I'm lucky I decided to go today.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm fully aware of such studies. Recessions and economy play a huge role in mental health. But those are hypotheticals and correlations. That is fundamentally different than watching a disease actually kill people daily. We are watching causation in action. I get the nuance.
> 
> In the last week we've seen a (figurative) tidal wave of antagonism towards mitigation strategies and using hypothetical economic impacts on health to justify that. These compounding factors are important and damning but using them to argue against a concerted response to a global pandemic? That's a pretty treacherous line. Most folks here haven't gone that far but the shadow of that rhetoric hangs heavy.
> 
> It was just a few days ago that Rep Dan Patrick said on cable "'As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?...And if that's the exchange, I'm all in."
> 
> Those words, and their implications, are hideous for a government official to even utter nonetheless push so boldly to a cable news audience.
> 
> 
> 
> Based on the "data" at the beginning of this thread vs now, we can say most of what has been said about this virus has been hypothetical too.
> 
> We are watching an economic collapse in front of our eyes too.
> 
> It's odd - you felt our response to the virus was too late and pathetic yet are concerned with us trying to have an early response to the coming economic issues (which "correlate" with mental health, domestic health, etc...).
Click to expand...

I didn't critique "our" response as citizens to coronavirus early on; I criticized the federal government's response at large. I do critique individuals' rhetoric along the lines of "the cure is worse than the disease". Those are different and it's ridiculous on your part to conflate them.

I support the federal government using it's resources to help citizens at this moment and preparing for the compounding and secondary issues of a recession. Nothing odd about that. I believe we can deal with multiple issues at once. Nothing odd about that. I believe we can show compassion to everyone affected without using one as an excuse to do less for the other. (See the idiotic and inhumane quote I provided before). Nothing odd about that.

The disease is not hypothetical. We have day to day statistics about its actual toll. We know another 19400+ citizens were diagnosed and that Covid-19 killed more than 500 fellow Americans just yesterday. We know it's spreading exponentially in cities across America. We know it causes an unusually severe outcome for people in a way that has overwhelmed resources elsewhere. We know it's a miserable way to die. We know healthcare workers and first responders get infected at higher rates; right now there are more than 4000 NY police officers out sick (4x higher than normal) and 500+ of them are confirmed Covid-19 cases.

But the loose correlations (medical outcomes, etc) associated with a recession are NOT the same as the causational relationship between Covid-19 and human bodies/populations.


----------



## Vanilla

We are seeing a false choice being set up by pundits where people are being asked to decide between fighting against the virus or fighting for the economy. That is just a poor way to think about it or frame it. Once again, we have to ask ourselves why talking heads have started to do this? 

I agree that we can begin to address both at the same time. The toll that both will feel when we are all said and done will be real and it will be horrible. Nothing caa ask change that. But we can work on both at the same time, realizing that there is no short-term winner in this one. The record stimulus package that passed with near unanimity is an example of what I’m talking about working on both. Philosophically, I’m against something like this. But sometimes...what other options do you have?

We can’t just go back to life as normal right now. And even if we did, the economy won’t be fixed all the sudden. President Trump for two weeks answered questions about the economy by saying essentially, “We fix the economy by getting the virus under control.” I agree with that. The stimulus package attempts to falsely prop up the economy for a couple months while they work on the virus. 

The talk about “opening back up the country by Easter” is just that: it’s talk. People need to quit assuming what will happen and pay attention to the actions. Our president is full of bravado and my guess is he’s trying to give people light at the end of the tunnel, even if that light will continue to move. On top of that, what is shut down that the president actually controls? What has he shut down? Buckle up until June folks. And hope the 2.2T is enough to get the country through until then. 

No matter what, the individual and collective impact felt on this one both from health/life and economic angles is going to be rough. That would still be the case if the virus magically disappeared tomorrow. Although I’d take it.


----------



## backcountry

Interesting data analysis from USA Today and reported in the Spectrum. It looks at age distributions of Covid-19 in the US and individual states compared to other countries. We are definitely seeing it hit people younger than 30 more here; it's based on hospitalization numbers but the younger patients still seem to have much better outcomes in general. Not peer reviewed, just descriptive statistics.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/n...ed-hospitalization-data-19-states/2922646001/

Some good news is we are seeing daily airlifts of PPE out of Asian countries that started this weekend. That's a huge deal as shipping normally takes 35+ days. The federal employee in charge believes it will continue for at least two weeks if not more. Federal government is covering the transportation costs. Bravo.


----------



## Vanilla

Vanilla said:


> The talk about "opening back up the country by Easter" is just that: it's talk. People need to quit assuming what will happen and pay attention to the actions. Our president is full of bravado and my guess is he's trying to give people light at the end of the tunnel, even if that light will continue to move.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...trump-coronavirus-press-conference/index.html

And there we go.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Some good news is we are seeing daily airlifts of PPE out of Asian countries that started this weekend. That's a huge deal as shipping normally takes 35+ days. The federal employee in charge believes it will continue for at least two weeks if not more. Federal government is covering the transportation costs. Bravo.


According to Dr Fauci's interview he did with Steph Curry, we are also starting to see a major ramping up of production domestically as well. He seemed very hopeful/confident that the PPE shortage was getting resolved.


----------



## backcountry

I haven't seen in a week or so but I know multiple companies were running at capacity 24/7. And not just Charmin toilet paper 😁


----------



## 2full

Picked up a bulk size pack of toliet paper today, was surprised. 
Heard the Cosco down here got a bunch in as well. 
Hopefully that is a good sign.


----------



## RandomElk16

If we want to be optimistic:

Utah dropped below the 5% positive mark for tests. Over 16,000 tests with 787 cases (.5% resulting in death thus far). So 95% of the time you are having these moderate to severe symptoms they are requiring for most tests, you are having another illness that we typically face. 


It is sad to see a woman in her 20's pass away, regardless of her high risk status. The article said 5 of the 7 occupants of their house got it, including her and her mother who were hospitalized. 

Also Bob Garff, chairman of the Ken Garff Enterprises passed away. That's a sad hit to the Utah business community.


----------



## Catherder

RandomElk16 said:


> If we want to be optimistic:
> 
> Utah dropped below the 5% positive mark for tests. Over 16,000 tests with 787 cases (.5% resulting in death thus far). So 95% of the time you are having these moderate to severe symptoms they are requiring for most tests, you are having another illness that we typically face.


Knock on wood, but our numbers here have not shown exponential growth yet and look somewhat encouraging IMO. The state epidemiologist said that she feels the current social distancing directive is working and said today that only a small number of current cases are coming from community spread. (Per todays presser.)

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


----------



## KineKilla

The South Jordan Costco had pallet after pallet of TP but not a single package of Paper Towels to be found. 

It's a strange feeling these days going out amongst people. Everyone is a suspect.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> RandomElk16 said:
> 
> 
> 
> If we want to be optimistic:
> 
> Utah dropped below the 5% positive mark for tests. Over 16,000 tests with 787 cases (.5% resulting in death thus far). So 95% of the time you are having these moderate to severe symptoms they are requiring for most tests, you are having another illness that we typically face.
> 
> 
> 
> Knock on wood, but our numbers here have not shown exponential growth yet and look somewhat encouraging IMO. The state epidemiologist said that she feels the current social distancing directive is working and said today that only a small number of current cases are coming from community spread. (Per todays presser.)
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/
Click to expand...

I'm hopeful for Utah. The information and models I'm seeing don't put us into the range of several states. It's possible we never exceed regular hospital bed capacity but still fall short on ICU beds and ventilators. The projections I'm seeing put us reaching peak near the end of April under current conditions and seeing roughly 500 deaths total.

I don't fully understand why they model us fairing so much better. I assume some of it is population density and distribution. Even SLC isn't remotely as concentrated as NYC, though it'll still be the probable epicenter for the state.

Time will tell.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/proj...ioRfSi_eIgmZxGELG--e52t0kSk6Pz2t99ksPkMEeJcnk


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I'm hopeful for Utah. The information and models I'm seeing don't put us into the range of several states. It's possible we never exceed regular hospital bed capacity but still fall short on ICU beds and ventilators. The projections I'm seeing put us reaching peak near the end of April under current conditions and seeing roughly 500 deaths total.
> 
> I don't fully understand why they model us fairing so much better. I assume some of it is population density and distribution. Even SLC isn't remotely as concentrated as NYC, though it'll still be the probable epicenter for the state.
> 
> Time will tell.
> 
> https://covid19.healthdata.org/proj...ioRfSi_eIgmZxGELG--e52t0kSk6Pz2t99ksPkMEeJcnk


Screenshot these and lets come back to them.

Not sure why it has us not peaking until almost 2 weeks after the country peaks, and how it has these bed/case projections.

I am encouraged when new cases is less than the days before.

SLC is locked down substantially more than most places, and you pretty much stop spread by closing Trax and Frontrunner(they should 100% stop). Shocked NYC kept the subway straight up booming!

With how shut down we are, do they really believe we will hit ~20,000 cases in Utah alone? 25% of what China had (they are either lying, or started it. Or both).


----------



## johnnycake

RandomElk16 said:


> With how shut down we are, do they really believe we will hit ~20,000 cases in Utah alone? 25% of what China had (they are either lying, or started it. Or both).


I'm normally not much of a tinfoil hat guy, but there have been way too many whistle blower type reports and oddities that align roughly with each other but don't line up with the official Chinese numbers. Things like the crematorium activity levels, the mobile incinerators, and more recently the urn orders for crematoriums in Wuhan, plus the Tencent number flub, etc.

My money is on taking China's numbers and multiplying by 10 to get a real ball park.

Poop.

Because, bidets.


----------



## Catherder

https://kutv.com/news/coronavirus/m...e-stay-safe-mode-state-has-xxx-covid-19-cases

Dr. Dunn said today that only 10% of new cases have been community spread. That is really good and if it holds, would give us more favorable results than those national projections. I also am skeptical that we will peak 2 weeks later than nationally. I see no epidemiological reason for that, especially now that the state is aggressively testing.

Again, knock on wood.


----------



## middlefork

I really conflicted.

Should we paint a red C on those that test positive or a Red C on those who test clean.

And then just socially shame those who haven't been tested.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> https://kutv.com/news/coronavirus/m...e-stay-safe-mode-state-has-xxx-covid-19-cases
> 
> Dr. Dunn said today that only 10% of new cases have been community spread. That is really good and if it holds, would give us more favorable results than those national projections. I also am skeptical that we will peak 2 weeks later than nationally. I see no epidemiological reason for that, especially now that the state is aggressively testing.
> 
> Again, knock on wood.


The national peak is going to be driven by places like NY and others that failed to implement social distancing measures early enough. It's looking like Michigan and parts of the south will be a week behind NY. Utah's limited numbers, if the trend keeps up, will be a miniscule drop in that bucket.

Our peak is going to be driven by what happens when you actually flatten the curve, ie drag the process out. Social distancing inherently increases timeframe. It is still going to spread for us just much slower. Our day to day "essential" activities will naturally spread the virus.

That's all assuming that trends keep up. Things are changing daily so who knows.


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> Screenshot these and lets come back to them.


As you wish...


----------



## backcountry

johnnycake said:


> RandomElk16 said:
> 
> 
> 
> With how shut down we are, do they really believe we will hit ~20,000 cases in Utah alone? 25% of what China had (they are either lying, or started it. Or both).
> 
> 
> 
> I'm normally not much of a tinfoil hat guy, but there have been way too many whistle blower type reports and oddities that align roughly with each other but don't line up with the official Chinese numbers. Things like the crematorium activity levels, the mobile incinerators, and more recently the urn orders for crematoriums in Wuhan, plus the Tencent number flub, etc.
> 
> My money is on taking China's numbers and multiplying by 10 to get a real ball park.
> 
> Poop.
> 
> Because, bidets.
Click to expand...

The government of China has earned it's skepticism, that's for sure. Deciphering the fact from conspiracy on much of the "information" about Covid-19 there will take years.

But my educated guess, there is no way lifting the ban in Wuhan/Hubei doesn't lead to an increase in cases elsewhere in the country. If it doesn't then they definitely fudged there numbers.

Sadly the same is likely to happen here as well but given how geographically ours is already spread Round #2 (and maybe #3) won't be as bad, assuming immunity holds up for a few years.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm hopeful for Utah. The information and models I'm seeing don't put us into the range of several states. It's possible we never exceed regular hospital bed capacity but still fall short on ICU beds and ventilators. The projections I'm seeing put us reaching peak near the end of April under current conditions and seeing roughly 500 deaths total.
> 
> I don't fully understand why they model us fairing so much better. I assume some of it is population density and distribution. Even SLC isn't remotely as concentrated as NYC, though it'll still be the probable epicenter for the state.
> 
> Time will tell.
> 
> https://covid19.healthdata.org/proj...ioRfSi_eIgmZxGELG--e52t0kSk6Pz2t99ksPkMEeJcnk
> 
> 
> 
> Screenshot these and lets come back to them.
> 
> Not sure why it has us not peaking until almost 2 weeks after the country peaks, and how it has these bed/case projections.
> 
> I am encouraged when new cases is less than the days before.
> 
> SLC is locked down substantially more than most places, and you pretty much stop spread by closing Trax and Frontrunner(they should 100% stop). Shocked NYC kept the subway straight up booming!
> 
> With how shut down we are, do they really believe we will hit ~20,000 cases in Utah alone? 25% of what China had (they are either lying, or started it. Or both).
Click to expand...

Remember, that modeling is also based on no further intervention, ie information available when it was created. At the point linked there was/is not a statewide shelter in place mandate.

I hope it comes in less. As stated earlier, proper social distancing policy intentionally delays a (potential) peak; the point is to slow the rate of spread and therefore the "peak" date to spare pressure on the healthcare system.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I hope it comes in less. As stated earlier, proper social distancing policy intentionally delays a (potential) peak; the point is to slow the rate of spread and therefore the "peak" date to spare pressure on the healthcare system.


That is the main reason (ask Italy, Spain, or New York City about that), but not the only one. Flattening the curve also introduces more variables into the total epidemic picture, such as seasonal variability, improved treatment options, and vaccine development. Most of these new variables are more favorable to us and are time dependent.

This is why I favor the current regulations even though there is some pain involved in implementing them. (to put mildly)


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I hope it comes in less. As stated earlier, proper social distancing policy intentionally delays a (potential) peak; the point is to slow the rate of spread and therefore the "peak" date to spare pressure on the healthcare system.
> 
> 
> 
> That is the main reason (ask Italy, Spain, or New York City about that), but not the only one. Flattening the curve also introduces more variables into the total epidemic picture, such as seasonal variability, improved treatment options, and vaccine development. Most of these new variables are more favorable to us and are time dependent.
> 
> This is why I favor the current regulations even though there is some pain involved in implementing them. (to put mildly)
Click to expand...

100% agree. Would be a sigh of relief if this virus behaves like other coronaviruses and is tamped down by seasonal variables.

To clarify, my response was on in relation to doubt about Utah's delayed peak. I would assume there are even more benefits of flattening the curve that are well beyond my understanding, especially since I'm barely able to keep up with the math involved in these types of curves. Really wish I had understood and enjoyed calculus (devil's math) more in hindsight.

And we are probably on the same page with supporting response. The situation is horrible but I haven't seen another viable option presented for a country at this point in transmission.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Really wish I had understood and enjoyed calculus (devil's math) more in hindsight.


Yeah, I sucked at calculus too when in college. I do have to admit though that I found epidemiology hella interesting while in professional school and the math wasn't too excruciating.


----------



## Critter




----------



## 2full

I can't decide which is worse:

Being in a job deemed critical and risking getting the virus. 

Or:

Being stuck at home all day every day bored out of my mind. 

I have a couple of people I work with that do NOT want to be home all day, every day. ........With the significant other. 
:shock:


----------



## middlefork

Well so far about 5% of people (who presumably have symptoms) have tested positive.

So lets have some of the mathematicians on here figure the draw odds ;-)

And then maybe they can break it down by unit (county).


----------



## DallanC

You have better odds of getting Covid19 than drawing a tag at the Expo.

-DallanC


----------



## weaversamuel76

Did anyone see what's happening in the Gunnison valley in Colorado? I heard from someone that lives there 50+ positive cases in that tiny population. I didn't verify anywhere else though.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

weaversamuel76 said:


> Did anyone see what's happening in the Gunnison valley in Colorado? I heard from someone that lives there 50+ positive cases in that tiny population. I didn't verify anywhere else though.
> 
> Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


The County had 80 cases as of yesterday. If social distancing and thoughtful prevention isn't done right our rural towns could see higher than average incidence of the disease per capita.

https://www.livescience.com/colorado-coronavirus-updates.html

Outcomes could/probably will be worse in these areas because of the limited medical resources and in general they tend to be older populations than metropolitan areas.

I hope people consider that as they consider voluntary travel to these areas.


----------



## Critter

Any and all areas here in Colorado that have the ski resorts are testing very high for the virus. Here in Eagle County the Vail/Beaver Creek area also has a very high amount of cases along with Aspen.


----------



## RandomElk16

So based on the last page I presume reproduction increases..

And Utah will have a bunch of "Koviid, Koreonuh, Corohnii, Veyeruss" etc... babies.


----------



## backcountry

Along with a Coronial generation


----------



## DallanC

RandomElk16 said:


> So based on the last page I presume reproduction increases..
> 
> And Utah will have a bunch of "Koviid, Koreonuh, Corohnii, Veyeruss" etc... babies.


Couple weeks ago I tried to register the domain names: Covid19Diet.com, CoronaDiet.com, CoronavirusDiet.com etc etc, I figured there will be alot of fat people after this lockdown ends. Sadly someone had the same idea and beat me to it.

-DallanC


----------



## RandomElk16

My optimism faded when they predicted 100K to 240K deaths in the us. 

Based on the global case fatality rates, we would need 7 Million infected. Based on the US, we would be closer to 15 Million infections.


That's a massive bump from the 190K we are at today. Almost 80x the infections even though most people are at home?


I hope it isn't that bad. The predictions have been ALL OVER since this started and even this one is a ridiculous range that still says "we have no clue" (maybe the scariest part really).


----------



## KineKilla

The real turning point in this mess will be when/if we hit the max capacity at hospitals. Once all the beds are full and no other outlets exist, people will have to stay home and die from the disease or stay home and recover from it.

So far we have kept the death toll low by utilizing respirators to keep oxygen flowing into the body to prevent further organ damage. Once there are none of those left there will be little anyone can do to prolong the patient's life in hopes of recovery.

Not going to be good.


----------



## Catherder

RandomElk16 said:


> My optimism faded when they predicted 100K to 240K deaths in the us.
> 
> I hope it isn't that bad. The predictions have been ALL OVER since this started and even this one is a ridiculous range that still says "we have no clue" (maybe the scariest part really).


I agree that it is going to be rough nationwide (especially for the next 2-3 weeks) and we will lose quite a few people. The evidence seems clear on that. However, I more strongly agree with the second sentence. I don't think anyone knows for sure. Read this if you'd like some (more than) light reading.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

What I've found more useful to have some knowledge for what's happening locally is the daily briefing by the state epidemiologist and the state statistics. It is day by day, but so far, they have been cautiously favorable. We still have not demonstrated exponential growth on case numbers and our testing has really ramped up in the last week. The dire statewide predictions making the rounds on the internet have an exponential growth curve used in their models. So far, that hasn't happened.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


----------



## backcountry

The models are getting more accurate as we gain more information. The ranges inherently compress as this goes on. Our efforts are helping across the country but the fatality rate and infection rate will take a certain toll no matter what we do. In fact, our goal is keep it to constrain it to that baseline or if lucky develop a vaccine and erradicate it.

The new information the federal government is sharing is still limited by the variables put into it. There are a ton of cities and states still acting rather nonchalantly about their outbreaks. If they change course and more of our citizens do the same we can bend the curve more. 

But at this point it's hard not to imagine at least 100k+ dying. And to put that in perspective, most seasonal flu numbers are retroactive and included cases that were "burdened" by flu and led to other types of acute issues as the documented fatality (heart attacks, etc). That is what I believe Fauci and now most of the federal government is stating. We may never see the counters reach those numbers but they can't reflect the actual toll until we do a full inventory.

The next two to four weeks will take an immense toll on our country. And the world. Sadly we will likely also have to watch as this spreads more rapidly through the southern hemisphere over the summer, as most of those countries aren't remotely seeing a peak yet. It's going to suck and we'll all have to cope with it in some fashion.

Beyond the internet disagreements I think most people are stepping up which helps. Most of us help our neighbors and family. Most of us are adapting even more than asked. When faced with a threat individuals and society can show immense vigilance and resilience. It's there and making a difference.

I'm hopeful Utah will continue to avoid the exponential growth of the disease. Time will tell if I invested that hope properly.


----------



## DallanC

What is going to happen is the virus will peak in a few weeks and diminish over the summer. But come next fall / winter, it will come back with a vengeance and dwarf what numbers we are seeing now. 

The only good news is if medical supply production remains steady over the summer drop, we might have enough supplies to get us through the re-insurgence of the virus.

It would be incredible if they are able to fast track a virus vaccine that works, but historically, it takes many years to actually do it.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

I don't think anyone is really expecting a vaccine before spring of 2021. There may have been some people that are "hopeful" that it could be earlier, but I've always seen those hopes hedged on the 12-18 month timeline.


----------



## johnnycake

Here's a shocker /s

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...T109zYuDHOkC7WG6Sz-nCID5tnmXuHbsMBfSM2WmtVjNs

Oh how much I'd like to see what was in the actual report. Time to spray the cheeks of some legislators and see what gets knocked loose


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> What is going to happen is the virus will peak in a few weeks and diminish over the summer. But come next fall / winter, it will come back with a vengeance and dwarf what numbers we are seeing now.
> 
> The only good news is if medical supply production remains steady over the summer drop, we might have enough supplies to get us through the re-insurgence of the virus.
> -DallanC


Curious, where are you seeing that with current measures in place it will come back worse in the autumn?

No doubt it will come back but I'm not seeing experts say it will be worse, in either quantity of cases or the disease's virulence.

It's going to suck either way. Best to plan on this going on in some fashion until spring of 2021 when a vaccine might be available, and even then probably triaged based upon risk level for citizen. If we are done before then I'll breathe a happy sigh of relief and be grateful for the smart people who made it happen.


----------



## backcountry

Pretty interesting read about analysis coming out now about hypotheses on why the disease affects certain people more than others. Now I have to look up immunosenescence and study up on it more. It's both a frightening and pretty amazing time to be alive as we watch knowledge develop so fast.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30...QNcZSWPBuvs4VnQrnIOxv34v0uuRw7PLzm2UMcGQ3gIFs


----------



## Lone_Hunter




----------



## backcountry

Don't know about the rest of y'all but it's directly affecting our extended community of friends and family. 

A friend's brother in Brooklyn has an entire family infected: himself, 2 kids and wife all tested positive. Wife is in serious condition but they won't admit her anywhere yet. Sounds like a common experience in NY.

A friend's college roommate lost their child from Covid-19 in the last couple days. Completely healthy before this with no signs of underlying conditions.

Given where we are at the curve I assume most of will know someone who is seriously affected by the disease. It's definitely going to be an ugly couple weeks.


----------



## DallanC

In 1982, the record was set for unemployment filings for the week at 695,000.

This past week there were over 6.6 million unemployment claims.

We are F'd beyond description at this point.


-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

5100 deaths, 10,000,000 unemployed.


----------



## DallanC

New this morning said at the height of the Great Depression, unemployment was 25%. At the rate of filings, they are expecting an unemployment rate during the pandemic of 33%.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> 5100 deaths, 10,000,000 unemployed.


The unemployment numbers are devastating but expected when you shut down the service industry. They'll get worse as major areas like Florida finally catch up with closures. We'll see if we end up in bad or horrible terrain soon enough.

The potential good news, hard to see if that way, is these numbers are directly tied to pandemic measures not traditional collapses of industry. We don't have a comparable analog in our lifetimes. These jobs could come back in force when we start to see government restrictions lifted. Big IF though as we don't know how long that will be, how consumers will respond, and what restaurants and businesses had the means (capital, forbearance, etc) to weather this storm.

Wild times. But we are starting to see what happens when high risk work environments don't take the disease seriously soon enough. For example, it spreads through warehouses and ultimately causes unrest and rightful safety concerns amongst workers. There is a good chance that if these employers don't change their tactics that we'll have a pandemic with a recession/depression riding it's coattails and one of the largest worker uprisings in our lifetime as well.

We have a long way to go before we reach the eye of this storm.


----------



## backcountry

Then you add on how the healthcare industry is starting to treat it's employees, beyond not having enough PPE stockpiled for an event like this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...octors-they-ll-be-fired-if-they-talk-to-press

https://www.ksl.com/article/4673639...-nurse-practitioners-to-face-pay-cuts-in-june

I understand the business justifications in both cases but either of those situations could seriously backfire at a moment in which we've never needed these professionals more. What happens when you don't properly protect your staff, consequence them for being honest about that and then start to cut their or their cohort's pay? Medical professionals can be some of the most tireless, selfless people I know but everyone has a breaking point.


----------



## Critter

Look at it this way, 

Once this is all over we the US will have the larges job growth know to mankind.


----------



## shaner

For all those times someone told you “change is good”, you can tell them that is not always true.


----------



## DallanC

Critter said:


> Look at it this way,
> 
> Once this is all over we the US will have the larges job growth know to mankind.


I wish that were true, but where will people go? Its not just layoffs happening in companies minimizing to stay afloat, and can re-add those jobs back later. Entire companies are going out of business.

My dad was just to close on a jeep, got offered a deal he couldnt turn down one afternoon, he called the next morning to iron out the final details (trading two very nice CJ7s for a JK) and was told the entire company got shuttered and everyone was let go.

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

Critter said:


> Look at it this way,
> 
> Once this is all over we the US will have the larges job growth know to mankind.


That is very possible.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-6-6-million-doubling-last-weeks-record-high/

Just like the virus epidemic "curve" itself though, we just don't know for sure. It will certainly depend on the duration of the closures and the amount of businesses that go belly up and can't restart. While I am a fiscal conservative, I do favor most of these stimulus plans so far. It also helps that the economy was in decent shape when it started.

As with all things, time will tell.


----------



## KineKilla

So, what happens when the unemployment runs out nationwide? Surely the US does not have enough cash flow to pay millions of citizens to sit at home as well as trying to subsidize big industries like the airlines (which are absolutely unessential now).

Can the federal government actually go bankrupt and if so, what happens?

I imagine life insurance companies will be filing bankruptcy once the death toll reaches extreme levels those losses will come from people like me who have largish investments in policies, our banks are federally insured, money in the market isn't actually money it is simply a number on a sheet...not good.


----------



## backcountry

So many unknowns right now. Plenty of reason to be optimistic about possible rebound. Plenty of reason to pessimistic and concerned about how long this economic hardship could last. 

Everyday I am grateful for my wife's continued employment. Everyday I oscillate between pride for how much we prepared (compared to average citizen) and being nervous we didn't do enough. It's a tough time to find a steady confidence in our actions. But we keep acting in accordance with the situation and doing our best. That seems to be all any of us can do at the moment.


----------



## willfish4food

And we have broken a million documented cases worldwide. Only kind of significant since I'm sure we probably crossed the million actually infected person threshold weeks ago, but a milestone none the less.


----------



## backcountry

KineKilla said:


> So, what happens when the unemployment runs out nationwide? Surely the US does not have enough cash flow to pay millions of citizens to sit at home as well as trying to subsidize big industries like the airlines (which are absolutely unessential now).
> 
> Can the federal government actually go bankrupt and if so, what happens?


The federal government won't go bankrupt. ThecFed will keep printing money if "need" be. Biggest risk, for the short term, is inflation skyrocketing.

At some point in the near future the debt ceiling issue will come up again which impacts the US government's "credit rating". That's a perennial partisan battle that will likely be inflamed further. But it's an important issue whenever we start expanding the federal budget like this. But that's likely the boundaries of that conversation given this sites community rules.

My guess is the federal government will implement policy like we had for TB if experts predict a resurgence in the autumn. Instead of most households being under orders to isolate we'll have methods to quickly identify those exposed during round two and find ways to swiftly isolate them to protect communities and society. We'll find mechanisms to compensate those households for lost wages during isolation as a trade off for protecting the returning economy. I say all that not to advocate China's type of approach but knowing the US has unique boundaries and histories that can be preserved. I think we have enough ingenuity in this country to solve those variables together.

Our situation isn't completely unprecedented so we can slowly draw on past successes if we can get our society running again and working together. But it will take a level of cooperation that seems a bit optimistic for who we have been as a country.


----------



## DallanC

Here's a good read on possible recovery scenarios:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...the-virus/ar-BB124gI8?li=BBnbfcN&ocid=U345DHP

PS: The United States has declared bankruptcy or insolvency 3 times in the past 100 years (1933, 1950 and 1977). We're kindof due

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

KineKilla said:


> So, what happens when the unemployment runs out nationwide?.


Everyone should probably already have been working on ways to boost their home security. Desperate people, will do desperate things. If people cannot buy their food, they will find ways to "acquire" it. 
If this situation goes on for too long, I suspect we will see an uptick in home burglaries/invasions. Especially in areas where the local's are known for keeping food stores.


----------



## RandomElk16

willfish4food said:


> And we have broken a million documented cases worldwide. Only kind of significant since I'm sure we probably crossed the million actually infected person threshold weeks ago, but a milestone none the less.


The US alone is supposed to be 15 million in the next few weeks.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> The US alone is supposed to be 15 million in the next few weeks.


If we keep doubling every five days we'll hit 16 million confirmed cases in about 30 days. Big IF as the underlying rate keeps changing. But Fauci and several others seem to think the peak is likely in a few weeks at which point the infection rate will being slowing drastically. Wait and see.

France just noted almost 900 previously unaccounted for deaths in nursing homes alone, though they could have of occured up to weeks ago. That sort of event is likely to continue as its happened in Spain as well. As this sweeps through the US we are likely to way undercount deaths for a while, given only those tested and dying at hospitals right now are included. But major retirement hubs across the country are hopefully on the ball at such centers to prevent it sweeping through their facilities.

I would wager there are literally tens of thousands of households like mine in the US who are realizing their family members may never get to use Assisted Living anytime in the next 1-1.5 years as originally hoped.


----------



## middlefork

At least one of the current Utah deaths was in hospice care.

I don't know if they were in hospice care before they contracted the virus or were put on it after they got it.

If they were on hospice care previously I don't see any need to blame it on the virus.


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> At least one of the current Utah deaths was in hospice care.
> 
> I don't know if they were in hospice care before they contracted the virus or were put on it after they got it.
> 
> If they were on hospice care previously I don't see any need to blame it on the virus.


But to be consistent with other diseases it should be reported as such. The big, scary numbers about seasonal flu include those deaths caused by the "burden" of the virus. Not to mention, hospice isn't an immediate death sentence; it's just a transition from preventative medicine to palliative care which can last for years.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html


----------



## backcountry

Interesting take on the toilet paper situation. I don't believe it explains the initial rush but it might explain the sustained depletion.

https://marker.medium.com/amp/p/c812e1358fe0


----------



## Vanilla

https://www.testutah.com/

Utah is truly unique, and there is no better place on the planet.

We can choose to focus on the doom and gloom, or we can look for the helpers, see the positive, and look forward to solutions. Utah leads, again. I'm choosing from here on out to look to the positives.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> https://www.testutah.com/
> 
> Utah is truly unique, and there is no better place on the planet.
> 
> We can choose to focus on the doom and gloom, or we can look for the helpers, see the positive, and look forward to solutions. Utah leads, again. I'm choosing from here on out to look to the positives.


This would be awesome if it works out well and I don't see why it wouldn't. Good point!

On a related note, the state epidemiologist provided the "due caution" caveat, but we only had 62 new cases today, which is down. As explained, there was also a drop in tests, but, knock on wood, we might be nearing a flattening phase of the curve (in Utah), which would be awesome. It certainly doesn't show evidence of exponential growth. She certainly seemed happy to report it today.

https://kutv.com/news/coronavirus/april-2-numbers-utah-reaches-cases-as-world-count-tops-1-million

Minute 50 on the presser, although the rest covers what Nilla brought up.


----------



## Packout

I see the US will have "10-15 million confirmed cases in a few weeks" numbers-- but do we really have 100 million test kits available to administer over the next 2-4 weeks? I doubt it. In Utah we have administered around 22,000 tests and have around 1,100 positive for a ratio of around 1 in 20. So the positive ratio would have to double to get 10 million positives per 100 million tests. There are only approx 100,000 tests administered everyday in the United States. 

I think it best to not put more fear into people without being somewhat based on facts.


----------



## brisket

Vanilla said:


> https://www.testutah.com/
> 
> Utah is truly unique, and there is no better place on the planet.
> 
> We can choose to focus on the doom and gloom, or we can look for the helpers, see the positive, and look forward to solutions. Utah leads, again. I'm choosing from here on out to look to the positives.


 Nice to see a glass half full post! Here's to hoping this will have an impact.

My day has been better as well:


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> https://www.testutah.com/
> 
> Utah is truly unique, and there is no better place on the planet.
> 
> We can choose to focus on the doom and gloom, or we can look for the helpers, see the positive, and look forward to solutions. Utah leads, again. I'm choosing from here on out to look to the positives.


Thanks for the link, Vanilla. I think Utah has a unique opportunity to stay ahead of the curve. This seems like a unique tool to track data. I'm normally pretty reticent about sharing such information but now seems like a good time to be vulnerable to help others and our communities.

I'm not committed to looking at and posting just the positives but I fully understand your approach and support people doing so. I fall into a group of "pessimistic realist" (I get that "realism" comes across as arrogant but it's just what it's labeled as by others) and don't shy away from it. I'll likely continue to post the negative as it happens but I'm also sincerely optimistic at many moments by how individuals and communities are stepping up to help. It's what we need. And I'll post appreciation for those as well.

On that note my community/county is in the midst of pretty steep growth curve. It's manageable right now within our medical resources but if it continues it could get ugly. It doesn't look scary when it's just 9 confirmed people but it was only 1 person eight days ago. Fingers crossed. Only time will tell and we only have so much in our control.


----------



## backcountry

Packout said:


> I see the US will have "10-15 million confirmed cases in a few weeks" numbers-- but do we really have 100 million test kits available to administer over the next 2-4 weeks? I doubt it. In Utah we have administered around 22,000 tests and have around 1,100 positive for a ratio of around 1 in 20. So the positive ratio would have to double to get 10 million positives per 100 million tests. There are only approx 100,000 tests administered everyday in the United States.
> 
> I think it best to not put more fear into people without being somewhat based on facts.


There is definitely a logistical roadblock to testing to keep up with the potential exponential growth. I'm not confident exponential growth will even keep up for another four weeks but as you point out we'd have to ramp up testing 5 fold very soon to confirm that many infections.

I haven't QCd the estimates. Where are those numbers coming from? I had assumed the potential fatality numbers were for all of 2020 but hadn't even researched that issue yet.

So much information, so little time.


----------



## Steve G

Steve G said:


> My only concern is that I might miss an opportunity to buy on the Corona Virus dip.:sad:


I'm worried that I looked really stupid for making this comment when I did.

And for the well being of my senior parents.


----------



## backcountry

It's data like this that shows why so many mayor's are calling for Utah to extend Shelter in Place orders. Per capita analysis shows SLC region as one of the nation's hotspots. As spring gets warmer and Easter approaches more people will travel out of the northern hotspot into southern communities. We are not remotely out of the curve yet and we need people to not travel anytime soon.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/map-reveals-hidden-u-s-hotspots-of-coronavirus-infection/

We saw another massive spike in statewide confirmed infections despite one of the lower recent rates of total tests performed. The trend line in Utah is still very steep.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/latest/


----------



## middlefork

The infection rate per quantity of tests has consistently been right around 5%
Your massive uptick was based on more tests being completed only. How long until everyone is tested? It will take month or more before even SL County is completely tested.


----------



## Vanilla

Is there a place we can see the specific number of confirmed cases each day and how many tests were administered? The best I’ve been able to see is that current day’s results and the overall numbers. Maybe I’ve been looking at the wrong place. I’d love to see a day by day result list, just not sure it’s in the public view right now. 

And this is just for Utah I am curious.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> It's data like this that shows why so many mayor's are calling for Utah to extend Shelter in Place orders. Per capita analysis shows SLC region as one of the nation's hotspots. As spring gets warmer and Easter approaches more people will travel out of the northern hotspot into southern communities. We are not remotely out of the curve yet and we need people to not travel anytime soon.
> 
> https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/map-reveals-hidden-u-s-hotspots-of-coronavirus-infection/
> 
> We saw another massive spike in statewide confirmed infections despite one of the lower recent rates of total tests performed. The trend line in Utah is still very steep.
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/latest/


While I won't argue about the staying in place directives, "massive" increases and "steep trend lines" are simply not accurate. It went up today, but it is just as likely a function of *yesterday* being extra low. Neither I or the state epidemiologist would call yesterday a breakthrough either, but lets analyse the data rationally. I doubt we are through the worst of it, but we still haven't seen exponential growth and if you average yesterday and today, it is in line with the previous weeks daily totals. I expect things will go up, but time will tell if we become another New York or Louisiana and right now, I'm optimistic.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> The infection rate per quantity of tests has consistently been right around 5%
> Your massive uptick was based on more tests being completed only. How long until everyone is tested? It will take month or more before even SL County is completely tested.


Actually the uptick reported today was in correlation with fewer tests conducted compared to trend line. And the number of tests reported today was only slightly more than yesterday with a much higher rate of infection.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's data like this that shows why so many mayor's are calling for Utah to extend Shelter in Place orders. Per capita analysis shows SLC region as one of the nation's hotspots. As spring gets warmer and Easter approaches more people will travel out of the northern hotspot into southern communities. We are not remotely out of the curve yet and we need people to not travel anytime soon.
> 
> https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/map-reveals-hidden-u-s-hotspots-of-coronavirus-infection/
> 
> We saw another massive spike in statewide confirmed infections despite one of the lower recent rates of total tests performed. The trend line in Utah is still very steep.
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/latest/
> 
> 
> 
> While I won't argue about the staying in place directives, "massive" increases and "steep trend lines" are simply not accurate. It went up today, but it is just as likely a function of *yesterday* being extra low. Neither I or the state epidemiologist would call yesterday a breakthrough either, but lets analyse the data rationally. I doubt we are through the worst of it, but we still haven't seen exponential growth and if you average yesterday and today, it is in line with the previous weeks daily totals. I expect things will go up, but time will tell if we become another New York or Louisiana and right now, I'm optimistic.
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/
Click to expand...

It could be an artifact of yesterday's testing. Won't ever know. People were applauding yesterdays numbers as a good sign; I did as well. Consistent with that logic is why I mentioned the seriousness of today's climb. To be clear, my use of steep is comparably less than exponential, as I was trying to respect the significance of that word (emotionally and mathematically).

I'm more than willing to focus on 3+ day averages and it was not my goal to misrepresent the data but we are not seeing an optimistic trend yet, especially in my region. Our trend line is definitely steep and we won't know for a while how the measures used are impacting the curve given how testing was conducted.

SLC region is rationally one of the hotspots for the country which is backed by empirical, per capita analysis (a couple days old but that's to be expected). I definitely don't compare us to NYC or New Orleans; the structure and demographics of those areas are about worst case for the US. SLC benefits from it being less densely populated than NYC and it's relative affluence and medical infrastructure compared to NO. But I'm also not convinced we have done enough yet. I can get there and will be happy to breathe a sigh of relief if it works but the trend right now is not pleasant.

And we are a week away from people traveling to my area for Easter and the hunt from said hotspot. That could and probability wise will have an impact on the curve at a critical moment. Especially given we seem to be about 10+ days behind the northern region in numbers and drastically behind in perception of the disease.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> Is there a place we can see the specific number of confirmed cases each day and how many tests were administered? The best I've been able to see is that current day's results and the overall numbers. Maybe I've been looking at the wrong place. I'd love to see a day by day result list, just not sure it's in the public view right now.
> 
> And this is just for Utah I am curious.


The charts are within the links added recently by Catheder and I. It has each days positives and tests performed. The tests performed is sadly charted in intervals of 500 (at least on my screen) so it's hard to accurately parse out exact #s. I'm not sure you can get that to a list of exact numbers except for total positive listed on worldometer.


----------



## backcountry

Catheder,

Maybe you can explain to me why the numbers are inconsistent in the linked graphs. That might explain our different interpretation as well. One graph states 85 tested positive on the 2nd while another lists 146 "lab confirmed Covid-19" cases for the same day. It was the 146 I was basing my comment off of as it was the one available on my screen. The graph with the highest total is titled "Date when COVID-19 cases are first reported to Public Health in Utah" while the lower is "Number of people who have been tested for COVID-19 in Utah (this includes public and some private labs)". Why are they so disparate?

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

Vanilla, you can actually zoom in on those dates on the website and get exact numbers like you were asking about.


----------



## middlefork

The state epidemiologist specifically said today the 2 week trend is a better indicator than daily trends.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Catheder,
> 
> Maybe you can explain to me why the numbers are inconsistent in the linked graphs. That might explain our different interpretation as well. One graph states 85 tested positive on the 2nd while another lists 146 "lab confirmed Covid-19" cases for the same day. It was the 146 I was basing my comment off of as it was the one available on my screen. The graph with the highest total is titled "Date when COVID-19 cases are first reported to Public Health in Utah" while the lower is "Number of people who have been tested for COVID-19 in Utah (this includes public and some private labs)". Why are they so disparate?
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/
> 
> Vanilla, you can actually zoom in on those dates on the website and get exact numbers like you were asking about.


Sure, I have wondered the same thing at times, but from watching the daily briefings with Dr. Dunn, I think that some of the media reports include some cases that are reported after the number gets posted on the graph. For instance, a couple of days ago, she announced a case in central Utah but the graph and chart didn't list it until the following day. Also, todays, graph total is 146 (the graph date is one day previous to the announcement date, yesterday, they announced 72 and its listed as 4-1) but the increase in the total numbers (Upper left hand box) is higher than 146 from yesterdays number. I suspect these are reported positives that came in after the graph number was posted.

The other thing that we have to consider right now is that we have testing coming in from a host of different sources. Some out-of-town labs are experiencing a significant backlog and results are taking several days. Most of our local labs are achieving about 48 hour turnaround time, if not sooner for critical cases. Todays poorer numbers could be a glut of backlogged cases coming in or likewise yesterdays more favorable results could be due to similar sampling error. As the state has streamlined our testing with solid local labs, our results will be more uniform and thus more predictive.

I think next weeks results will be key and tell us how bad it will get. Lets hope and pray for the best.


----------



## brisket

On a positive note to end the day, I bring you a Coronavirus Easter update. My daughter has informed me that the Easter Bunny is magical and thus cannot catch the Coronavirus. Easter is on!

She is however, still trying to decide the gender of the Easter Bunny. “I’m pretty sure it’s a he, but not sure.”


----------



## johnnycake

brisket said:


> She is however, still trying to decide the gender of the Easter Bunny. "I'm pretty sure it's a he, but not sure."


Just tell her that it is rude to assume even the Easter Bunny's gender. It is 2020 after all.

Poop.


----------



## middlefork

A little interesting reading from our Italian friends.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...OVID-2019_26_marzo_eng.pdf?mod=article_inline


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Catheder,
> 
> Maybe you can explain to me why the numbers are inconsistent in the linked graphs. That might explain our different interpretation as well. One graph states 85 tested positive on the 2nd while another lists 146 "lab confirmed Covid-19" cases for the same day. It was the 146 I was basing my comment off of as it was the one available on my screen. The graph with the highest total is titled "Date when COVID-19 cases are first reported to Public Health in Utah" while the lower is "Number of people who have been tested for COVID-19 in Utah (this includes public and some private labs)". Why are they so disparate?
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/
> 
> Vanilla, you can actually zoom in on those dates on the website and get exact numbers like you were asking about.
> 
> 
> 
> Sure, I have wondered the same thing at times, but from watching the daily briefings with Dr. Dunn, I think that some of the media reports include some cases that are reported after the number gets posted on the graph. For instance, a couple of days ago, she announced a case in central Utah but the graph and chart didn't list it until the following day. Also, todays, graph total is 146 (the graph date is one day previous to the announcement date, yesterday, they announced 72 and its listed as 4-1) but the increase in the total numbers (Upper left hand box) is higher than 146 from yesterdays number. I suspect these are reported positives that came in after the graph number was posted.
> 
> The other thing that we have to consider right now is that we have testing coming in from a host of different sources. Some out-of-town labs are experiencing a significant backlog and results are taking several days. Most of our local labs are achieving about 48 hour turnaround time, if not sooner for critical cases. Todays poorer numbers could be a glut of backlogged cases coming in or likewise yesterdays more favorable results could be due to similar sampling error. As the state has streamlined our testing with solid local labs, our results will be more uniform and thus more predictive.
> 
> I think next weeks results will be key and tell us how bad it will get. Lets hope and pray for the best.
Click to expand...

Thanks, that helps a ton. Sorry for causing the confusion earlier; obviously the rolling total for today (additions after the press conference) is not comparable to the fixed number from the previous day's press conference. I wish I had caught that sooner instead of posting such information and comments to add to the confusion. The situation is so fluid as testing timeframe changes and states do their best to keep up with it all.

I use to pride myself on being able to decipher information like that but the data presented on that site is throwing me off. I think I'll avoid using my phone with it as it's not formatted ideally for mobile use which made my error worse.

And thx for update of in state testing speed. I hadn't realized they had succeeded at decreasing time so well. Impressive to watch the ingenuity and hard work almost in real time.

Sorry folks.


----------



## backcountry

There are several communities at high risk that I hadn't even thought about. I wonder how this will pan out for Coal Miners given how the incidence of Black Lung has been climbing the last couple decades.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...iners-facing-serious-threat-from-virus-spread


----------



## Catherder

Today's statistics.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

Up 126, which is 40 less than yesterday but still in the general range. Not too interpretive one way or another but not disastrous either. One more fatality. Hospitalizations have only gone from 100 to 117 in the last 2 days with the increase in numbers. That is good. (remember that some of those patients represented in the hospitalizations listed have gone home (or died) and that doesn't represent who is in the hospital now.) It appears the hospitals are ok for now.

FWIW, I texted with my friend that works at a major hospital in Utah county yesterday. She said they are ready but it hasn't been terrible yet.

Also not sure how to interpret this?

https://kutv.com/news/coronavirus/u...-see-slowdown-providers-think-surge-is-coming

If demand for testing is down, that could be a good sign. Or maybe not yet?


----------



## middlefork

As I understand it, the parameters for testing are limited to those with symptoms and tracing those who have had direct contact with someone who has tested positive.

The testing is in no way a random sample of all people in the state.

And they are still reporting basically a 5% positive rate in the testing. So I would think it could be a positive sign.


----------



## Catherder

middlefork said:


> As I understand it, the parameters for testing are limited to those with symptoms and tracing those who have had direct contact with someone who has tested positive.
> 
> The testing is in no way a random sample of all people in the state.
> 
> And they are still reporting basically a 5% positive rate in the testing. So I would think it could be a positive sign.


Possibly, or it is a function of the state matching testing supply (availability) to the demand. I read today that Utah is #5 rank in per capita testing ratio.

I will say that it sure beats the alternative scenario of long lines.


----------



## middlefork

Testing 1,2,3 ......
https://www.ksl.com/article/46737512/heres-how-utah-plans-to-test-everyone-who-needs-it-for-covid-19


----------



## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> Testing 1,2,3 ......
> https://www.ksl.com/article/46737512/heres-how-utah-plans-to-test-everyone-who-needs-it-for-covid-19


I shared the link for testing Utah a couple days ago, but has anyone actually gone to the website and filled out the questionnaire? I have not. I'm wondering how this will actually change things. My guess is in practice most of us would be told to not go get tested if we all just went to the site and filled out the form. But that is just a guess.


----------



## backcountry

I filled it out. No call back yet.


----------



## middlefork

Vanilla said:


> I shared the link for testing Utah a couple days ago, but has anyone actually gone to the website and filled out the questionnaire? I have not. I'm wondering how this will actually change things. My guess is in practice most of us would be told to not go get tested if we all just went to the site and filled out the form. But that is just a guess.


Yes it is an attempt to pinpoint hot spots. A massive data collection to see where testing is needed. Therefore no symptoms, no contact, no test.

The more people that fill out the form the better the data is. Of course GIGO can happen too. Fill out the form and say you have all the symptoms and you will get notified to be tested.


----------



## 2full

I filled it out earlier today. 
Will be interesting to see the response.


----------



## Vanilla

One hesitation I have about filling it out today is that I know I won’t be selected. I have no symptoms, have not traveled, and to my knowledge, have not been around anyone that has the virus. 

So I fill it out and I’m told “you don’t need to test.” What happens in 6 days if I feel symptoms?


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I have a cold.


Which freaking amazes me. You know how I got this cold? Because someone showed up at my wifes work sick. If i remember correctly, this person caught it from a college campus, or a friend who's attending college, before the stay at home order was given. I don't remember exactly. But my wife came down with it first, then my daughter, then me.

We've been in lockdown at my house for at least 3 weeks now. So it's easy to trace the pathway of this cold. We've traced it back to ONE single individual who thought it was allergies. That woman's husband also had it, was tested for COVID-19, which came back negative.

This is a common cold, and it still found it's way into my quarantined house hold. All it takes is just ONE person not following protocols, and they can take down the entire clinic, and every family that is connected to it.

Now overlay that on a virus that is HIGHLY contagious. You have to follow STRICT protocols. No shortcuts. NO EXCEPTIONS.

If someone doesn't feel well, even if they think it's just allergies.... STAY THE **** AT HOME!!!!


----------



## backcountry

Lone_Hunter said:


> I have a cold.
> 
> Which freaking amazes me. You know how I got this cold? Because someone showed up at my wifes work sick. If i remember correctly, this person caught it from a college campus, or a friend who's attending college, before the stay at home order was given. I don't remember exactly. But my wife came down with it first, then my daughter, then me.
> 
> We've been in lockdown at my house for at least 3 weeks now. So it's easy to trace the pathway of this cold. We've traced it back to ONE single individual who thought it was allergies. That woman's husband also had it, was tested for COVID-19, which came back negative.
> 
> This is a common cold, and it still found it's way into my quarantined house hold. All it takes is just ONE person not following protocols, and they can take down the entire clinic, and every family that is connected to it.
> 
> Now overlay that on a virus that is HIGHLY contagious. You have to follow STRICT protocols. No shortcuts. NO EXCEPTIONS.
> 
> If someone doesn't feel well, even if they think it's just allergies.... STAY THE **** AT HOME!!!!


I think about your household a lot. Hope y'all get through this cold and it's the only thing your household experiences.

I know several nurses in various fields and the situation is unnerving. One is in Michigan and I think the radio silence means she is preparing to live alone in our grandparents old lake cottage in the weeks to come to protect her family.

All the others are posting photos and descriptions of their "quarantine"-like routine when they get home: from clothes removal and sanitation to sleeping in different rooms. Luckily most don't have a high risk individual in their house so they can largely interact with their family. One is in a key area of the south though and I'm starting to think he'll be truly see the toll of this soon .

Unusual times.


----------



## backcountry

Do y'all think most of our fellow citizens realize the new mask recommendations are designed to prevent the wearer from spreading the disease to fellow citizens? I'm wondering how many people will pushback when they realize it.

I have an RZ Mask I bought last summer for weed whacking but it doesn't meet the goal of the recommendation because it's vented for exhalation. It protects me from virus in the environment, as a respirator, but expels a good portion of anything I might have to the environment. 

I'm going to have the do a little shopping in the weeks to come if I can't get local merchants to do contactless delivery to my truck. I have some N95s from working in my crawlspace. Trying to save those in case one of us in our house get sick. I also have a reusable respirator with an organic vapor cartridge along with N95 prefilters from working with toluene. Feels very MadMax to wear in public but it would protect me while also satisfying the nationwide recommendation. Given our household I need to be confident about myself and others to take the risk.

It's looking like face masks of some sort will become common in America for a while. I'm guessing at a minimum for the next few winters if not a permanent fixture of American Life during those months.


----------



## Vanilla

Letting criminals ought of jails and prisons due to a virus, and everyone wearing face coverings as normal to conceal their identities...what could possibly go wrong?


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> Letting criminals ought of jails and prisons due to a virus, and everyone wearing face coverings as normal to conceal their identities...what could possibly go wrong?


Did Utah move to release people out of jail and prison? I heard about it elsewhere but hadn't seen an update here.


----------



## Vanilla

Yep.


----------



## Critter

You would think that the jails and prisons would be a controlled environment where the prisoners would be more isolated from the virus than they would be on the outside 

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> Yep.


That's going to be interesting.

Do you have a link you would share so I can understand the scope better? I'm starting to research but have to admit it's not a subject I have much familiarity with. I see one about "early releases" but I'm guessing it's more than that.


----------



## Vanilla

https://www.ksl.com/article/4673813...mpty-concerns-over-release-of-some-defendants

Here is a story about it with a couple anecdotes. In addition to early releases, the Utah Supreme Court issued an order delaying virtually all court hearings/trials until after June 1. In it they ordered every judge to revisit the custody status of every defendant being held pre-trial and consider appropriate conditions for release, if there are such. They also encouraged release of anyone being held on a class C or class B misdemeanor.

Remember those increase domestic violence calls we heard about a week ago? Well, the vast majority of domestic violence cases in the state are class B misdemeanors. The ACLU and defense attorneys in Utah are filing blanket motions in basically every case citing coronavirus as a violation of their rights and so they should be released.

Again, what could go wrong?


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> https://www.ksl.com/article/4673813...mpty-concerns-over-release-of-some-defendants
> 
> Here is a story about it with a couple anecdotes. In addition to early releases, the Utah Supreme Court issued an order delaying virtually all court hearings/trials until after June 1. In it they ordered every judge to revisit the custody status of every defendant being held pre-trial and consider appropriate conditions for release, if there are such. They also encouraged release of anyone being held on a class C or class B misdemeanor.
> 
> Remember those increase domestic violence calls we heard about a week ago? Well, the vast majority of domestic violence cases in the state are class B misdemeanors. The ACLU and defense attorneys in Utah are filing blanket motions in basically every case citing coronavirus as a violation of their rights and so they should be released.
> 
> Again, what could go wrong?


Thanks. That's a frightening prospect.


----------



## Catherder

Some more not so light reading on how to interpret coronavirus testing statistics.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

We have talked about testing and case counts a lot on here and have seen "vigorous" reactions as some numbers climb. This article puts some of that in context. I thought this quote is noteworthy, especially where Utah is currently a "high test" state. (bold added by me)

" Doing more tests is good, and likely leads to better long-run outcomes, *even if it also results in higher case counts that people will freak out about in the short run.* I don't usually like to be so didactic, but I hope you'll be a more educated consumer of COVID-19 data instead of just looking at case counts ticking upward on cable news screens without context."


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> https://www.ksl.com/article/4673813...mpty-concerns-over-release-of-some-defendants
> 
> Here is a story about it with a couple anecdotes. In addition to early releases, the Utah Supreme Court issued an order delaying virtually all court hearings/trials until after June 1. In it they ordered every judge to revisit the custody status of every defendant being held pre-trial and consider appropriate conditions for release, if there are such. They also encouraged release of anyone being held on a class C or class B misdemeanor.
> 
> Remember those increase domestic violence calls we heard about a week ago? Well, the vast majority of domestic violence cases in the state are class B misdemeanors. The ACLU and defense attorneys in Utah are filing blanket motions in basically every case citing coronavirus as a violation of their rights and so they should be released.
> 
> Again, what could go wrong?


 What worries me is breakin's, burglaries, and home invasions. All words for variations of the same thing. I've been hardening my home. I'd encourage everyone else to do the same. If I still had access to C wire and sandbags, i'd employ those too. Sounds really freaking silly as I say that now, but with more criminals let loose on the streets, more people filing for unemployment at historical levels, the only thing that is keeping civil unrest from erupting is "free money" from the government and the American Trucker keeping food moving across the country.

On a more positive note, I recently got a buttload of groceries chocked full of things that were hard to come by a week ago. Meat, and milk. I couldn't get them a week or two ago.


----------



## hunting777

Saw this today. I hope that the Gif works. (not sure if this is on here yet, I have read the whole thread)


----------



## High Desert Elk

Catherder said:


> " Doing more tests is good, and likely leads to better long-run outcomes, *even if it also results in higher case counts that people will freak out about in the short run.* I don't usually like to be so didactic, but I hope you'll be a more educated consumer of COVID-19 data instead of just looking at case counts ticking upward on cable news screens without context."


What freaks people out the most is 1) no vaccine. We as a society have come to rely on them to function. 2) contagious and not knowing who has it.

I might have it, I might not. I've had a stupid little cough since December (dragging a cow elk out of the hills in cold weather, go figure). When it started to warm up a little, the cough was a little more often, probably from pollen in the air. Had the doc prescribe some allergy meds (Claritin or ZYRTEC on steriods) he put me on last year just to see how it worked. Cough is still there, more from "muscle memory" than anything else.

I have been around people late last year or early this year that exhibited all the signs of the dreaded COVID-19. So, I don't know...


----------



## BPturkeys

hunting777 said:


> Saw this today. I hope that the Gif works. (not sure if this is on here yet, I have read the whole thread)


I like it...follow So. Korea...interesting


----------



## middlefork

I have always questioned the negative tests. All that means is at the time of the test you are negative. Not that you can't pick it up the next time you participate in a risky behavior.

Lone is a classic example. He got a cold. Somewhere along the line his bubble leaked. The same happens with this virus.

Even at one of the governors press conference last week. You could see almost every speaker walk up to the dais and adjust the microphone before speaking. I'm pretty sure they did not edit out the sanitizing of the microphone between speakers.

All you can do is try to make a better bubble. You can't rely on other people to do it for you.


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> the only thing that is keeping civil unrest from erupting is "free money" from the government and the American Trucker keeping food moving across the country.


I don't mean to nitpick, but I guess I'm going to. The ONLY thing keeping us from civil unrest is not a free check that is coming eventually. The vast majority of people are good. People are stronger and better than you're giving them credit for above. Call me crazy, but I see people bonding together, not having widespread rage and civil unrest.

Yes, there are bad people out there. Yes, they will try to take advantage of any situation they can to victimize others, but there is nothing new in that. There is principle that has become somewhat famous as of late: Look for the helpers. There will always be helpers.

We will not have civil unrest erupt here in Utah because we have solid communities built upon strong principles and we care about each other. We are better than that. I truly believe it.


----------



## Catherder

hunting777 said:


> Saw this today. I hope that the Gif works. (not sure if this is on here yet, I have read the whole thread)


Again, if you have the time to read the article I posted last night, you have to take into context the positive case counts. Having more positive cases may not necessarily mean that the country or state in question has a worse problem than a different area reporting fewer cases. The graphic makes the US look like we are getting hit worse than other places, and handled things badly. Both may be true to a varying extent, but we may be better off than some places that "look" better off on the graphic.


----------



## KineKilla

Vanilla said:


> We will not have *as much* civil unrest erupt here in Utah because we have solid communities built upon strong principles and we care about each other. We are better than that. I truly believe it.


There fixed it for ya. Just because we live in Utah does not make society any less panicky or reactive.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> I don't mean to nitpick, but I guess I'm going to. The ONLY thing keeping us from civil unrest is not a free check that is coming eventually. The vast majority of people are good. People are stronger and better than you're giving them credit for above. Call me crazy, but I see people bonding together, not having widespread rage and civil unrest.
> 
> Yes, there are bad people out there. Yes, they will try to take advantage of any situation they can to victimize others, but there is nothing new in that. There is principle that has become somewhat famous as of late: Look for the helpers. There will always be helpers.
> 
> We will not have civil unrest erupt here in Utah because we have solid communities built upon strong principles and we care about each other. We are better than that. I truly believe it.


You have FAR more faith in humanity then I have. If the situation continues for too long, as more people go out of work, as they run out of money to buy food with, or as they go through their emergency stores, desperate people WILL do desperate things. In retrospect, I should have chosen my words more carefully, as I was speaking in terms of the country as a whole in my previous post.

Here in Utah, at the very least, I expect to see a rise in home invasions if the situation goes on for a protracted period of time. Especially in Utah county, where it is known that a lot people have emergency food stores. When you have something that other people need to survive, that makes you a target. I think the idea of some people coming down from SL county to rob houses in Utah county is completely plausible. Gas is cheap. Is law enforcement triaging calls yet? I don't think they are, however some places in the country they are.

People will try other easier/legal means to acquire that they need to survive first (path of least resistance), but once those options are exhausted, they will start considering things they previously would not. If you think they won't, your just kidding yourself.


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> I have always questioned the negative tests. All that means is at the time of the test you are negative. Not that you can't pick it up the next time you participate in a risky behavior.


^This

Each of those negatives is a real person that goes back into the pool. And sadly risky behavior includes taking care of actual needs.

One of the interesting things about Catheder's link is the dynamic nature of the lag in the case load. The return time of the test is compressing but the lag between initial infection and seeking the test really isn't; we are still inherently looking at numbers that are 4-7 days, or longer, old and therefore not seeing the full picture. I think it's pretty impressive that it's only that amount of time, historically speaking, but citizens need to know the number of actual infections is likely at least an order of magnitude bigger than the counters show. But we'll never really know as it's all an imperfect representation of the real spread.

Our bubble "broke" for the first time. No contact with anyone symptomatic but simple mistakes make transmission possible. We are still locked down pretty tight and have decreased contact pretty close to zero but it if I'm honest I'm not sure zero is fully possible given we all make mistakes. And it's only going to get harder for my household the longer this goes on unless every business goes to curbside delivery and zero contact; in the weeks to come we have some local "essential" needs that get harder to write off.


----------



## Catherder

One comment on the civil unrest topic. 

How much civil unrest took place during the Great Depression? There was more crime, but true civil unrest? 

Not really that much.


----------



## brisket

Lone_Hunter said:


> Here in Utah, at the very least, I expect to see a rise in home invasions if the situation goes on for a protracted period of time. Especially in Utah county, where it is known that a lot people have emergency food stores. When you have something that other people need to survive, that makes you a target. I think the idea of some people coming down from SL county to rob houses in Utah county is completely plausible. Gas is cheap. Is law enforcement triaging calls yet? I don't think they are, however some places in the country they are.


I'm willing to bet that every neighborhood in the entire state of Utah has some people that store food, Utah County is not unique this way. I don't think a fear of the people up north is warranted, but I guess it depends how bad things get. I'm hopeful that we can come together as a community and help each other out so it doesn't get to that point.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Catherder said:


> One comment on the civil unrest topic.
> 
> How much civil unrest took place during the Great Depression? There was more crime, but true civil unrest?
> 
> Not really that much.


 It was the age of highway gangsters if I remember my Hollywood glorification correctly. A lot of people turned a blind eye because they hated the banks. There was also more homogeneous societal values back then too. Shared values that kept society together. Today we are told "Diversity is our strength", and moral relativism being applied to cultural values and ideas.

Some areas are more homogeneous then others. Utah thankfully, is more unified then other places. The only place I can think of that would be better place to live in then Utah during this crises, is maybe rural Alaska. Can't get much more social distancing then that! :mrgreen:


----------



## BPturkeys

Lone, simply put, you are not looking at the big picture here. America is not really experiencing any "real"( not temporary horde caused) shortages. We still grow WAY more food than we can eat, we still have a great system of distribution of the above mentioned stuff...given the worst case scenario, food production and distribution will be handled by the government and will be fair and country wide. 
Lone, remember, good people live everywhere. Utah has no lock on good cultural values and that includes Utah county for heaven sakes. Once the hoarders get their full you will see a huge uptick toward normalice in America.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Well, I'm going to stop arguing the point, because frankly, I'd rather be wrong. My initial thought, was a suggestion to improve your home's security. The what, got lost in the why. If you don't agree with improving your homes security, that's fine. Your house, your family, your rules. I on the other hand, will have done everything I can to make sure my family is safe. It will help me sleep better, especially during turkey season and I'm not around. As much as I want to scout right now, I can't, my place is here, and my home isn't 100% secure to my satisfaction..... yet.


----------



## backcountry

I'm going to say if people start talking about "moral relativism" and cultural diversity as an implied negative I will start pushing back on that. I guarantee as a person who values those things that I or my community, that also subscribes to them, pose zero risk to some sort of hypothetical civil unrest. Zero. The ones I know are planting their "victory gardens" (their words) and playing with their kids in their backyards. They are a pretty boring bunch.

There could definitely be a direct negative to releasing tons of people nationwide from jail and prison. I think we all know we have the right to take measures to protect our homes and families from crimes. But it sounds like for all of us so far even that remains a hypothetical. If it happens, I hope your families and homes remains safe. But maybe wait to place blame on the actual individuals committing the crimes and not proactively default to blaming our favorite political enemies at large?

There is zero civil unrest in the US right now because of Covid-19. What I actually see are people helping each other. I see a city that opens it's windows before shift changes at hospitals and applauds the healthcare workers. I see corporations donating millions of PPE items to hospitals. I see many households mailing essential items to family members at high risk or in higher risk areas for Covid-19. I see people waiting patiently in lines 6 feet apart at grocery stores, often items that are temporarily scarce. I see people using 3D printers at home or in academic labs manufacturing items being requested by medical professionals, all to be donated. I see people Skyping, FaceTiming, Zooming with old friends they haven't talked to in years. I see families getting creative and making time capsules to remember this unique moment. And I've seen that happening without any regard or correlation to political ideology.

Most of our fellow citizens are actually being the solution, not the problem.


----------



## caddis8

Lone_Hunter said:


> It was the age of highway gangsters if I remember my Hollywood glorification correctly. A lot of people turned a blind eye because they hated the banks. There was also more homogeneous societal values back then too. Shared values that kept society together. Today we are told "Diversity is our strength", and moral relativism being applied to cultural values and ideas.
> 
> Some areas are more homogeneous then others. Utah thankfully, is more unified then other places. The only place I can think of that would be better place to live in then Utah during this crises, is maybe rural Alaska. Can't get much more social distancing then that! :mrgreen:


I would probably argue that rural midwest is pretty homogenous than maybe even UT. We're used to having to drive and help each other out. Branding, fixing stuff, serving others, etc. I'm 100 miles from Sam's Club and 140 from Costco. Heck, I'm 40 miles from Wendy's. Runza is close, and good- cabbage burgers are the real deal!

Point is, most of us need to stock up on things when we go somewhere because we don't know when the next time we'll be able to go to those places again. Throw in hail storms, blizzards, and that sort of stuff, you time travel smart and stock up.

There really is truth to mid-west nice.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> I'm going to say if people start talking about "moral relativism" and cultural diversity as an implied negative I will start pushing back on that.


 And I might push back on that. There's a valid argument that if you boil the poltics away, it's not about left vs right, liberal vs conservative, it comes down to nationalist vs globalist. At their core, liberals are globalists. Globalism, is why we are where we are today. Shuttered in from a Pandemic that started in a foreign country that controls 80-90% of the raw materials we need for medicines to treat said pandemic.

After all is said and done, I hope A LOT of our manufacturing comes BACK into our country where it belongs. Maybe if we had a vibrant manufacturing sector, more blue collar jobs, then maybe, the Democrat's will get back to being the working man's party instead of the divisive politics of "cultural diversity" and "group identity."


----------



## backcountry

caddis8 said:


> I would probably argue that rural midwest is pretty homogenous than maybe even UT. We're used to having to drive and help each other out. Branding, fixing stuff, serving others, etc. I'm 100 miles from Sam's Club and 140 from Costco. Heck, I'm 40 miles from Wendy's. Runza is close, and good- cabbage burgers are the real deal!
> 
> Point is, most of us need to stock up on things when we go somewhere because we don't know when the next time we'll be able to go to those places again. Throw in hail storms, blizzards, and that sort of stuff, you time travel smart and stock up.
> 
> There really is truth to mid-west nice.


Caddis8, you just brightened my week. I had never heard of Runzas/cabbage burgers before. Thank for adding that delicious tidbit to my life.


----------



## caddis8

backcountry said:


> Caddis8, you just brightened my week. I had never heard of Runzas/cabbage burgers before. Thank for adding that delicious tidbit to my life.


They are glorious. It's a German/Czech thing. Lots of Bohoemian folks out here. They are pretty really good. Plenty of recipes around. Some of the old stock can cook a mean cabbage burger.


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> You have FAR more faith in humanity then I have.


That's okay. I'm comfortable with that. Tell you what, I'll have enough faith in my fellow mankind for both of us!



Lone_Hunter said:


> People will try other easier/legal means to acquire that they need to survive first (path of least resistance), but once those options are exhausted, they will start considering things they previously would not. If you think they won't, your just kidding yourself.


Trust me, I'm not kidding myself. I work in the biz, I know what people are capable of. I've seen to worst that society has to offer. I've spent 14 of the last 18 years of my life working directly with criminals in one way or another. I just know that there is good out there, and it will prevail.

This whole situation sucks for so many reasons. I'm not trying to suggest it is all unicorns and rainbows. But we're going to bond together and we're going to survive as a society. I have no doubt in that whatsoever.


----------



## backcountry

Lone_Hunter said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm going to say if people start talking about "moral relativism" and cultural diversity as an implied negative I will start pushing back on that.
> 
> 
> 
> And I might push back on that. There's a valid argument that if you boil the poltics away, it's not about left vs right, liberal vs conservative, it comes down to nationalist vs globalist. At their core, liberals are globalists. Globalism, is why we are where we are today. Shuttered in from a Pandemic that started in a foreign country that controls 80-90% of the raw materials we need for medicines to treat said pandemic.
> 
> After all is said and done, I hope A LOT of our manufacturing comes BACK into our country where it belongs. Maybe if we had a vibrant manufacturing sector, more blue collar jobs, then maybe, the Democrat's will get back to being the working man's party instead of the divisive politics of "cultural diversity" and "group identity."
Click to expand...

You are the only one pushing identity politics right now in this thread.

Please continue to protect your house how you see fit. Our household is our domain.

But please do not make this thread about Democrats vs Republicans or Us vs Cultural Diversity or US vs China . Etc. Etc.

Heck, you and I have had passionate disagreements in the past but I can still find solidarity in your households difficulties at this time.

We are quite literally watching millions of Americans stepping up and helping each other right now. And they are doing it without any regard to political affiliation. Worry not, we'll have plenty of opportunity to get back to those tired old foxholes once this is all over. But please reconsider making this thread about a perceived partisan enemy, especially in regards to hypothetical civil unrest.


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> As you wish...


It's not including the attachments... but the numbers from this site are remarkably better:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/proj...ioRfSi_eIgmZxGELG--e52t0kSk6Pz2t99ksPkMEeJcnk


----------



## backcountry

caddis8 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Caddis8, you just brightened my week. I had never heard of Runzas/cabbage burgers before. Thank for adding that delicious tidbit to my life.
> 
> 
> 
> They are glorious. It's a German/Czech thing. Lots of Bohoemian folks out here. They are pretty really good. Plenty of recipes around. Some of the old stock can cook a mean cabbage burger.
Click to expand...

I have a fondness for food like that. I've bookmarked several recipes.

I'll need to dig a little deeper though as one of my MILs many idiosyncrasies before dementia was a misunderstanding that she is allergic to "the gluten". Not even worth confronting that belief (we have antibody test, she's negative) and I'm no good at lying.

So, the Runzas will have to be some type of bastardized hybrid of gluten free crust/bread. Good news is there wasn't a run on GF "flour".

No matter, they are going on the menu.


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> It's not including the attachments... but the numbers from this site are remarkably better:
> 
> https://covid19.healthdata.org/proj...ioRfSi_eIgmZxGELG--e52t0kSk6Pz2t99ksPkMEeJcnk


Old projections for Utah in my screen shots from March 31st:

Peak: estimated at April 27
ICU beds needed: 242 
Ventilators: 194 
Peak deaths per day: 16
Total deaths by Aug 4: 502

As of today's projection, here are the updates:

Peak: estimated at April 25
ICU beds needed: 66
Ventilators: 56 
Peak deaths per day: 7
Total deaths by Aug 4: 186

Yes, those look better. Just wait to say what they say next week!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> RandomElk16 said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's not including the attachments... but the numbers from this site are remarkably better:
> 
> https://covid19.healthdata.org/proj...ioRfSi_eIgmZxGELG--e52t0kSk6Pz2t99ksPkMEeJcnk
> 
> 
> 
> Old projections for Utah in my screen shots from March 31st:
> 
> Peak: estimated at April 27
> ICU beds needed: 242
> Ventilators: 194
> Peak deaths per day: 16
> Total deaths by Aug 4: 502
> 
> As of today's projection, here are the updates:
> 
> Peak: estimated at April 25
> ICU beds needed: 66
> Ventilators: 56
> Peak deaths per day: 7
> Total deaths by Aug 4: 186
> 
> Yes, those look better. Just wait to say what they say next week!
Click to expand...

I sure hope that trend keeps up. If we can get through this first wave with such low numbers than that gives us a lot of time to prepare better for the autumn (assuming we have a second wave). If we can exit the "urgency" stage and enter Stage 2 of the state's plan by early-ish May we'd all be better off.

Fingers crossed.

I feel like I should be playing the Limbo song as good luck. Coronavirus "How Low Can You Go"


----------



## DallanC

So a neighbor just emailed the neighborhood to say their whole family has it. They were on a cruise a while back, entire family got sick but were told they would not be tested. For weeks they "self quarantined" (well sortof). Their oldest daughter worsened and was finally tested, and was told she was positive.

Their son has been allowed to roam around outside, so who knows if he passed it around or not. He did play alot of basketball at the city courts.

All the statistics, counts and projections are bullchit if they aren't even going to test people who are actually symptomatic. 

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> Old projections for Utah in my screen shots from March 31st:
> 
> Peak: estimated at April 27
> ICU beds needed: 242
> Ventilators: 194
> Peak deaths per day: 16
> Total deaths by Aug 4: 502
> 
> As of today's projection, here are the updates:
> 
> Peak: estimated at April 25
> ICU beds needed: 66
> Ventilators: 56
> Peak deaths per day: 7
> Total deaths by Aug 4: 186
> 
> Yes, those look better. Just wait to say what they say next week!


I'm watching the daily briefing now. Dr Dunn confirmed what the above improved projections say, emphasizing that the lack of exponential growth in Utah has been maintained in the statistics. She did say that today's markedly lower numbers are due to weekend sampling and not to be interpreted as a major drop in cases.

However, overall, things look cautiously favorable.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


----------



## Vanilla

The tactics being taken in Utah "seem" to be working. I use the proverbial "air quotes" because we really don't know still. One thing that is disappointing is that even with the push to test and promise of increased testing, we're really not seeing it. 

According to the published data, I did not see a single day where 3,000 or more people were tested. The highest day was April 4, and it was 2,933 people tested. That was also our highest confirmed cases day as well, not surprising at all. 

I guess 2500 per day is better than 500 per day. I just wish we could get that ramped up over the next couple weeks and really start pinpointing the micro-hot spots. Not just on a county basis, but are there neighborhoods where it is more prevalent than others? You get the drift. 

I'm thankful for what Utah has done. I've said it before and I'll say it again: our state has led out on this issue. I love that they gave us a plan. I love that we have a vision for what we need this to look like. I am hopeful to see how these projections will hopefully drop. That's a lot of hope in one sentence. :grin: But I've got a lot of hope!


----------



## caddis8

backcountry said:


> I have a fondness for food like that. I've bookmarked several recipes.
> 
> I'll need to dig a little deeper though as one of my MILs many idiosyncrasies before dementia was a misunderstanding that she is allergic to "the gluten". Not even worth confronting that belief (we have antibody test, she's negative) and I'm no good at lying.
> 
> So, the Runzas will have to be some type of bastardized hybrid of gluten free crust/bread. Good news is there wasn't a run on GF "flour".
> 
> No matter, they are going on the menu.


I expect a full report.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> One thing that is disappointing is that even with the push to test and promise of increased testing, we're really not seeing it.
> 
> According to the published data, I did not see a single day where 3,000 or more people were tested. The highest day was April 4, and it was 2,933 people tested. That was also our highest confirmed cases day as well, not surprising at all.


Dr. Dunn touched on that in today's presser. She said that they have lab capacity to do 4000 daily cases in the state. However, the demand ,with screening criteria in place, hasn't been there. Late last week, we had workers in the drive through testing centers standing around doing nothing. (not necessarily a bad thing) She also said that they may have some shortages of culture media and swabs in a week, although more supplies have been ordered. Therefore I doubt they will loosen the screening criteria too much until the culture media supply is replentished.

The other thing to remember about testing is that it is a snapshot of who is getting infected 10-14 days ago, so we should have a better idea about the states control measures in the upcoming week.


----------



## backcountry

The State clarified it's position on outdoor recreation. Given its still a recommendation nothing remains banned, other than out of county state park use, but the general guidance is to recreate "close to home". They highlight that the USFS is discouraging dispersed activities including overnight camping.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/recreation/


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> especially in regards to hypothetical civil unrest.


Hypothetical? You know what, years ago, MANY things seemed hypothetical to me. I've had my bubble burst waaaaayyy to many times over the past decade or so.

Years ago if someone told me the NSA was spying on American's, or that there was some vast conspiracy to smash cell phones and government data on private servers, you know.. all those "breaking news" stories over the past decade? Before all that happened, id have said whoever was believing in that stuff was wearing a tin foil hat. Or that Epstein killed himself. Yeah, sure, he totally did. :roll:

My point is, in this last decade or so what was hypothetical, has become plausible. Here we sit in a pandemic, and we aren't at the peak yet. Life will not be the same again, there will be long lasting effects. A few years ago, I'd have called all this hypothetical too, yet here we are. I have learned, not to be so quickly dismissive of "hypothetical" things.

As to any rise in crime or even civil unrest, like it or not, if it's to happen, it will start in Salt Lake County first. Places like Magna comes to mind.


----------



## backcountry

Hypothetical, as in possible but not actually happening yet. Civil unrest isn't happening so any discussion of it is hypothetical.

And we are actually seeing more evidence of our fellow citizens being unified against the virus not fighting each other over resources. It's actually quite stunning and inspiring.


----------



## Dunkem

As to any rise in crime or even civil unrest, like it or not, if it's to happen, it will start in Salt Lake County first. Places like Magna comes to mind. ;QUOTE lonehunter===MAGNA??:mrgreen::mrgreen:


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I've also learned over the years that people are products of their environment, and just because something is out of your realm of belief, doesn't make it impossible. I lived in California in the 80's to early 90's. Ever see the movie "Falling down"? It's a great depiction of California at the time. The LA riots? Yeah, I saw some of that. I remember having to use a payphone to call my mom to tell her I was ok. I've enough experience with heavily urbanized areas to know what can happen. I've had gang members chase my ass for over a year. I had to change my daily habits.. actually, I couldn't establish a daily habit or i'd end up in the hospital.

Probably why I have little faith in people. Particularly in heavily urbanized areas. Gangs going cruising and knocking over a house for some stuff? Put a cap in the Mo'Fo's? Oh yeah, I can see that happening.

edit:


Dunkem said:


> lonehunter===MAGNA??:mrgreen::mrgreen:


To be fair, I've never been there. Primary becuase too many people have told me it's Utah's version of Compton. So I've always stayed clear.

And yeah, I know Utah is not california, but it's well on its way to becoming just like it, much to my dismay. Maybe this Pandemic will put a stop on all the migration into Utah.


----------



## middlefork

Lone_Hunter said:


> I've also learned over the years that people are products of their environment, and just because something is out of your realm of belief, doesn't make it impossible. I lived in California in the 80's to early 90's. Ever see the movie "Falling down"? It's a great depiction of California at the time. The LA riots? Yeah, I saw some of that. I remember having to use a payphone to call my mom to tell her I was ok. I've enough experience with heavily urbanized areas to know what can happen. I've had gang members chase my ass for over a year. I had to change my daily habits.. actually, I couldn't establish a daily habit or i'd end up in the hospital.
> 
> Probably why I have little faith in people. Particularly in heavily urbanized areas. Gangs going cruising and knocking over a house for some stuff? Put a cap in the Mo'Fo's? Oh yeah, I can see that happening.
> 
> edit:
> 
> To be fair, I've never been there. Primary becuase too many people have told me it's Utah's version of Compton. So I've always stayed clear.
> 
> And yeah, I know Utah is not california, but it's well on its way to becoming just like it, much to my dismay. Maybe this Pandemic will put a stop on all the migration into Utah.


I feel slighted. Ogden has always had the reputation of being the den of iniquity for Utah, especially after Park City got gentrified. Oh well suffer on!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

middlefork said:


> I feel slighted. Ogden has always had the reputation of being the den of iniquity for Utah, especially after Park City got gentrified. Oh well suffer on!


On the other hand, I've a brother or nephew in law (not sure, big family) who tells me that Ogden is the Armpit of Utah. My wife takes exception to that since her mother is originally from Ogden. I wouldn't know, I don't voluntarily go north of AF anymore, even before the Pandemic.


----------



## middlefork

I fully understand I don't go south of Farmington unless I absolutely have to. Too many radicals


----------



## 2full

I don't go North of Beaver unless I have too. 

Too many people .......period. ;-)


----------



## backcountry

2full said:


> I don't go North of Beaver unless I have too.
> 
> Too many people .......period.


Ditto. I like the quiet of southern Utah. And we have decent restaurants now a days. Many of them still offering curbside delivery.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

As a point of curiosity, you can see SLCPD's dispatch calls for the last 48 hours here:
https://dotnet.slcgov.com/Police/CADCallsForService/

Most large metro's have a page like this. You'll see what types of calls they are getting, how many, approximately where, and when. However you can't access the archives, so if your looking for trending data, you won't get it. If any city in Utah county has a similar page, I've been unable to find it yet.


----------



## RandomElk16

middlefork said:


> I fully understand I don't go south of Farmington unless I absolutely have to. Too many radicals


I rarely go South of Roy anymore lol. Occasional Nike and Cabelas run and that's about it.


----------



## middlefork

RandomElk16 said:


> I rarely go South of Roy anymore lol. Occasional Nike and Cabelas run and that's about it.


Usually I don't go south of Layton but being in county lockup......I mean county lock down or whatever the correct term is it is hard to find my necessary items farther north where I normally shop.


----------



## DallanC

This guy sums up my feelings better than anyone

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...weetstorm/ar-BB12fxJu?li=BBnbfcL&ocid=U345DHP

-DallanC


----------



## one4fishing

Magna= Compton. Some of you guys are funny. Guess what? There’s criminals living in your community too. Yes right in your neighborhood. Probably on your street. When we’re all hungry enough the little hood rats won’t be anywhere near the scariest of our population.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

In case no ones posted this link yet:
http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

We haven't hit peak yet, but were doing pretty good on bed capacity.
http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/utah


----------



## Dunkem

Lone_Hunter said:


> I've also learned over the years that people are products of their environment, and just because something is out of your realm of belief, doesn't make it impossible. I lived in California in the 80's to early 90's. Ever see the movie "Falling down"? It's a great depiction of California at the time. The LA riots? Yeah, I saw some of that. I remember having to use a payphone to call my mom to tell her I was ok. I've enough experience with heavily urbanized areas to know what can happen. I've had gang members chase my ass for over a year. I had to change my daily habits.. actually, I couldn't establish a daily habit or i'd end up in the hospital.
> 
> Probably why I have little faith in people. Particularly in heavily urbanized areas. Gangs going cruising and knocking over a house for some stuff? Put a cap in the Mo'Fo's? Oh yeah, I can see that happening.
> 
> edit:
> 
> To be fair, I've never been there. Primary becuase too many people have told me it's Utah's version of Compton. So I've always stayed clear.
> 
> And yeah, I know Utah is not california, but it's well on its way to becoming just like it, much to my dismay. Maybe this Pandemic will put a stop on all the migration into Utah.


 Take a drive through Magna. might surprise ya, was a lot wilder when I was growing up. Comparing it to Compton is like comparing a apple and orange, no comparison.


----------



## CrayDad

one4fishing said:


> Magna= Compton. Some of you guys are funny. Guess what? There's criminals living in your community too. Yes right in your neighborhood. Probably on your street. When we're all hungry enough the little hood rats won't be anywhere near the scariest of our population.


My car broke down in Compton about 30 years ago. Scary place to wait for a tow...


----------



## Catherder

This was on the news today.

https://kutv.com/news/coronavirus/s...ssive-states-fighting-coronavirus-now-its-not

While we grumble about some of the outdoor restrictions (me too), it is food for thought that overall, the states handling of the outbreak has been both timely and more measured than other states. While not conclusive yet, our statistics are showing cautiously good results from our leadership. The state also being in the top 5 for per capita testing also shows a robust response to the outbreak.

I bring this up because there is a narrative nationally that the states that haven't completely closed down are being stupid and will be overrun with cases because of a perceived "lax" response.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> This was on the news today.
> 
> https://kutv.com/news/coronavirus/s...ssive-states-fighting-coronavirus-now-its-not
> 
> While we grumble about some of the outdoor restrictions (me too), it is food for thought that overall, the states handling of the outbreak has been both timely and more measured than other states. While not conclusive yet, our statistics are showing cautiously good results from our leadership. The state also being in the top 5 for per capita testing also shows a robust response to the outbreak.
> 
> I bring this up because there is a narrative nationally that the states that haven't completely closed down are being stupid and will be overrun with cases because of a perceived "lax" response.
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


We have a relatively lax response as compared to most other states. That's not inherently a good or bad thing. And we won't know for a while if the strategy paid off. But appealing to people's self restraint versus a statewide prohibition on movement, as related to individual activity, is lax.

The national media and many people do think the principle method should be mandated shelter in place orders. Lots of rhetorical pressure on Utah right now, along with several other Western States.

Even with the comparatively lax approach I tend to see early evidence that it could be working. If so it will provide an interesting test case for future options. Having an array of options beyond say the Italian or California model could help given how diverse our nation is in culture, population densities, economic structures, etc.

But like I said in regards to DallanCs praise of Sweden, a country with an extremely lax approach at this point, it's just too early to know. The good news is early data shows Utah is currently fairing even better than them.

I'll applaud them if it works.

Time will tell.


----------



## middlefork

From an article in a local paper today there seems to be confusion as to what "shelter in place" and "stay at home" orders represent.

Shelter in place is a shorter term response to to an impending or recent disaster, requiring that people immediately bring pets and children inside - and possibly seal windows,doors and air vents.

Stay at home orders allow for essential travel and activities.

ready.gov/shelter


----------



## backcountry

I'm still waiting to hear when the nation starts talking about how much PPE we'll need to keep vital industries like food production going the next 12 months. Obviously the demand will be lower than for healthcare workers, as they have to change most of it after every patient visit. But every food processing facility is either going to have PPE readily available or retool for social distancing or both. Same for just about anything with close proximity in manufacturing. 

Getting way ahead of the PPE scenario is paramount for getting back to work as a nation.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> We have a relatively lax response as compared to most other states. That's not inherently a good or bad thing. And we won't know for a while if the strategy paid off. But appealing to people's self restraint versus a statewide prohibition on movement, as related to individual activity, is lax.


Remember, what one person calls "lax", another person would call 'measured", and yet others, like the respondents on the public land closure threads, would call "heavy handed".

I would also argue that while we may be "lax" on shelter-in-place regulations, we are being "aggressive" in things like testing, so IMO, to call our overall response "lax" is not entirely accurate.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> We have a relatively lax response as compared to most other states. That's not inherently a good or bad thing. And we won't know for a while if the strategy paid off. But appealing to people's self restraint versus a statewide prohibition on movement, as related to individual activity, is lax.
> 
> 
> 
> Remember, what one person calls "lax", another person would call 'measured", and yet others, like the respondents on the public land closure threads, would call "heavy handed".
> 
> I would also argue that while we may be "lax" on shelter-in-place regulations, we are being "aggressive" in things like testing, so IMO, to call our overall response "lax" is not entirely accurate.
Click to expand...

I agree which is why I ended the first paragraph with the caveat that "appealing to people's self restraint versus a statewide prohibition on movement, as related to individual activity, is lax.". And I'm focusing on the state as several counties aren't being lax by any means 
Also, to be fair most of the national response is targeted at that element of shelter in place mandate, not the amount of testing done. (Plenty of fair criticisms of that solitary focus, luckily I don't watch the news)

And I'll repeat, I think our state has done pretty well. I've had few complaints about them (versus my dissatisfaction in the federal response). I've applauded them multiple times. I know for a fact that it's easier for people to get tested here than in the Bay Area; my sister in law had symptoms and general poor health but couldn't get tested two weeks ago; every one of my wife's company employees that had symptoms have been tested, with ease. But I also know a lot of the statistics about testing outcomes are based on more than just response, like regional demographics. Easier to get tested in a comparatively rural, less populated area in SW Utah who was relatively isolated from initial spread compared to a place like the Bay Area.

I just don't think the strict/lax dichotomy works outside of health orders. For one thing, the Bay Area is both strict on Shelter in Place and in protocolscto get tested. Utah is lax on testing protocol for patients in comparison, hence the problem. Lax in that case could be a net positive.

I'll continue to applaud Utah. I'm not allowing myself to believe we got ahead of this for another few weeks as data across the world is showing how unpredictable measuring this disease is. But I think Utah's response matches the political zeitgeist which means less strict on government orders, ie lax, and more emphasis on appealing to citizens better angels to restrain themselves temporarily for public health. If enough citizens follow through on that, Utah might be able to stand tall on how such measures can succeed. Which would be quite the accomplishment when the standard MO is for top down mandates.

(Vis Versa....if our numbers spike the state could have hell to pay. Who knows at this point though.)


----------



## shaner

I miss Magna Gun Club.


----------



## Catherder

In today's presser, Dr. Dunn was explaining that Utah is still doing aggressive contact tracing on positive cases. She explained that many other states have reduced this part of their program either due to the epidemic overwhelming them or because of resource allocation. As I understand it, the Asian nations that have had the best outcomes so far have been aggressive in contact tracing as well as testing. Utah seems to rate highly in those areas of their program at this time.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> In today's presser, Dr. Dunn was explaining that Utah is still doing aggressive contact tracing on positive cases. She explained that many other states have reduced this part of their program either due to the epidemic overwhelming them or because of resource allocation. As I understand it, the Asian nations that have had the best outcomes so far have been aggressive in contact tracing as well as testing. Utah seems to rate highly in those areas of their program at this time.


I did a lazy search for an archive of those pressers and came up empty. Do you know we're I can find them?

Impressive that they are still contact tracing. My understanding is that makes a huge difference, which could be reflected in the numbers. I also know it's one of the models to reduce widespread closures if we see multiple waves in the future. If we can aggressively test this autumn and do contact tracing then we can focus on isolating only those that test positive or those with known contact. Even known contacts would only experience short isolation as testing times become shorter.

The interesting element would be how do compensate those forced into isolation for lost work time. During TB there were a lot of donations to a government fund. Not sure how it would be funded in this era.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I did a lazy search for an archive of those pressers and came up empty. Do you know we're I can find them?


I don't but they are scheduled daily between 1 and 1:30 and can be streamed from either the covid 19 website or the TV news station feed. The governor posts his comments on his Facebook page but doesn't always include the other speakers, including Dr. Dunn, who is usually last.


----------



## DallanC

Catherder said:


> In today's presser, Dr. Dunn was explaining that Utah is still doing aggressive contact tracing on positive cases. She explained that many other states have reduced this part of their program either due to the epidemic overwhelming them or because of resource allocation. As I understand it, the Asian nations that have had the best outcomes so far have been aggressive in contact tracing as well as testing. Utah seems to rate highly in those areas of their program at this time.


Its all crap. Smoke and mirrors. I already posted I have a neighbor 4 houses from me, the entire family got super sick on a recent cruise ship. Entire family was told they would not be tested, just stay home and self quarantine (their one son was allowed to play outside, play basketball at the park).

Their oldest daughter got much worse and was finally admitted to the hospital. She eventually was tested positive for covid19. The rest of the family has not been tested, nor has anyone came to do "contact tracing". The family felt so guilty over this, they emailed the local bishop and had him pass along their situation to the rest of us.

It's all complete BS, generating useless numbers to create worthless projections.

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> Its all crap. Smoke and mirrors. I already posted I have a neighbor 4 houses from me, the entire family got super sick on a recent cruise ship. Entire family was told they would not be tested, just stay home and self quarantine (their one son was allowed to play outside, play basketball at the park).
> 
> Their oldest daughter got much worse and was finally admitted to the hospital. She eventually was tested positive for covid19. The rest of the family has not been tested, nor has anyone came to do "contact tracing". The family felt so guilty over this, they emailed the local bishop and had him pass along their situation to the rest of us.
> 
> It's all complete BS, generating useless numbers to create worthless projections.
> 
> -DallanC


Or maybe this family fell through the cracks but others are being handled differently. Time will tell.

As for the projections and what is happening in our state, our hospitals aren't overwhelmed, testing center staff are sitting around waiting for someone to test, and although "the numbers are crap", they continue to look good here.

We seem to be doing something right in Utah, IMO.


----------



## DallanC

Catherder said:


> Or maybe this family fell through the cracks but others are being handled differently. Time will tell.


Either way its more proof numbers aren't accurate.



> As for the projections and what is happening in our state, our hospitals aren't overwhelmed, testing center staff are sitting around waiting for someone to test, and although "the numbers are crap", they continue to look good here.


Yes exactly, the initial statistics and projections were GROSSLY over estimated. The projections of deaths by Aug 1st in Utah from have been adjusted down by almost 1/5th the projection number from only 1 week ago.

That is a stunningly large margin of error, that political leaders are basing policy over.



> We seem to be doing something right in Utah, IMO.


That or the virus was never as bad as initially thought. Or it doesnt thrive in low humidity locations as well as coastal citys with high humidity. Probably all of the above.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> Catherder said:
> 
> 
> 
> Or maybe this family fell through the cracks but others are being handled differently. Time will tell.
> 
> 
> 
> Either way its more proof numbers aren't accurate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As for the projections and what is happening in our state, our hospitals aren't overwhelmed, testing center staff are sitting around waiting for someone to test, and although "the numbers are crap", they continue to look good here.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Yes exactly, the initial statistics and projections were GROSSLY over estimated. The projections of deaths by Aug 1st in Utah from have been adjusted down by almost 1/5th the projection number from only 1 week ago.
> 
> That is a stunningly large margin of error, that political leaders are basing policy over.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We seem to be doing something right in Utah, IMO.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> That or the virus was never as bad as initially thought. Or it doesnt thrive in low humidity locations as well as coastal citys with high humidity. Probably all of the above.
> 
> -DallanC
Click to expand...

Per initial models....that's how they work. They are only as good as the information we put into them. The first big scary models were based on a range of older information and limited or no mitigation. As countries and states begin to actual respond and try to limit spread those numbers will compress in future models. We also have a better data set to draw from the longer this goes on.

This is definitely not the worst case scenario in which it blows through an unprepared world. We largely avoided that. But we don't have enough information yet to understand fully how much more we can compress the ranges. Nor do we have an antibody sampling of the population to understand how many people have been truly infected. There are still a ton of unknowns. We still don't know what will happen in the long term to the health of all the younger people hospitalized but released.

I'm sorry your neighbors weren't tested. I think we are all starting to know people affected. Like I said, my SIL couldn't get tested because she hadn't traveled despite showing all the symptoms. I don't have an update but we also know someone stuck in Brooklyn with an entire family infected (tested positive) and the mother was in serious condition but not being admitted to a hospital. It sucks.

Hopefully we'll see this wane in time to continue to develop better responses for a possible round #2. We still have no clue what's going to happen in the next year or so.


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> Either way its more proof numbers aren't accurate.
> 
> Yes exactly, the initial statistics and projections were GROSSLY over estimated. The projections of deaths by Aug 1st in Utah from have been adjusted down by almost 1/5th the projection number from only 1 week ago.
> 
> That is a stunningly large margin of error, that political leaders are basing policy over.
> 
> That or the virus was never as bad as initially thought. Or it doesnt thrive in low humidity locations as well as coastal citys with high humidity. Probably all of the above.
> 
> -DallanC


The original projections were based on a standard exponential growth curve, which has been rather accurate in most outbreak locales. Our numbers are the reason the projections were adjusted down. Of course, with a new problem like this, there will be a lot of unknowns. To expect our health experts to *precisely* tell how it will behave in advance with no previous experience with this strain of virus is naive or worse. Here, in this state, we are seeing results better than baseline projections. That is something to celebrate, and yes, applaud what has been done. In Italy, New York City, and New Orleans, the numbers are as bad or worse than the "generic" curve. Do you want to trade places with them so the inconvenience of our restrictions can be "justified"?

It is entirely possible that an unknown factor like low humidity is helping us. I sure hope so! However, nobody knew that in advance and it would have been as irresponsible as he** to guess that some unknown factor would save us when there was zero proof in that direction.


----------



## Vanilla

Well said Catherder. To suggest this virus isn’t as bad as we thought shows a terrible lack of awareness of what is going in other parts of our country and the world. Search St John the Baptist parish in Louisiana, see what is happening there, and say it wasn’t as bad as we thought for them. Their fatality rate is astonishing. 

Whatever the reason for Utah’s projections dropping, that is a GOOD thing! I really don’t care which of the reasons is most responsible, but let’s not use success stories to understate the devastation some areas have seen and still are seeing. They are real people too, and there are places that have not been as fortunate as we have here thus far. 

We have thus far received really good news on the spreading front here in our state, but at least 13 people in our state have still died from this. This virus has been terribly tragic for the family and friends of those people. And while tragic outcomes on many fronts have hit right before our eyes, I still am very hopeful that we’re going to kick this thing more quickly than anyone originally thought, and we’ll bounce back from this relatively soon. 

Just don’t take football from me this fall. Just don’t do it!!!


----------



## riptheirlips

Seen a report last night that Italy deaths from Corona are not accurate, they said the actual number of deaths from the virus could be as low as 12% of what they are reporting. Seems they had people with pneumonia, strokes, heart attacks whatever that they basically just said it was Corona. I think the same thing is happening in the US


----------



## backcountry

riptheirlips said:


> Seen a report last night that Italy deaths from Corona are not accurate, they said the actual number of deaths from the virus could be as low as 12% of what they are reporting. Seems they had people with pneumonia, strokes, heart attacks whatever that they basically just said it was Corona. I think the same thing is happening in the US


And where are you seeing that? Italy had testing capacity beyond ours early on as they never ran into the issues in production we did.


----------



## CPAjeff

Vanilla said:


> Just don't take football from me this fall. Just don't do it!!!


Spoiler alert - Clemson is going to win it all.


----------



## Vanilla

CPAjeff said:


> Spoiler alert - Clemson is going to win it all.


Where is the dislike button?


----------



## willfish4food

riptheirlips said:


> Seen a report last night that Italy deaths from Corona are not accurate, they said the actual number of deaths from the virus could be as low as 12% of what they are reporting. Seems they had people with pneumonia, strokes, heart attacks whatever that they basically just said it was Corona. I think the same thing is happening in the US


Not sure how the numbers shake out for other states or countries, but I know at least Alabama's numbers have conflicting reports. WorldoMeter and Johns Hopkins show 68 and 67 COVID-19 deaths, respectively. But, Alabama's tracker shows 68 deaths total but only 48 due to COVID-19. Seems the discrepancy is dying while infected vs. dying because of the infection. I'm not sure how Alabama makes that distinction.


----------



## backcountry

More analysis exploring how early cases were seeded in the US. Seems the east coast was likely more influenced by travel from Europe.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html


----------



## RandomElk16

Throwing it out there- I know an older gentleman who simply wanted cough medicine from his doctor. Had a nagging cough that is common for him during season changes. Feels great, no symptoms other than that small cough. He was sure he didn't have it (he doesn't). 

They told him they have to test him. Could be age. Could be that he works at a store and sees people. 


Regardless- I do think they are putting a solid effort into getting people tested and identifying the people who are carrying the virus.


As for the "quarantine at home" orders previously given - they aren't going to do chest X-rays and such unless your condition worsens regardless. While "knowing" is nice especially if you have symptoms, they still do the monitor at home. (Learned this after knowing people who are now positive).


----------



## Vanilla

Another thing to keep in mind on anecdotes, is the "current" state of things has changed very rapidly. Two weeks ago we had basically very little testing happening in Utah. Today we're being held up as a national example on testing protocols. 

Things have changed quickly. I don't know of anything else in my lifetime that more analysis and rapid change that has every happened as the last four weeks of my life. It's been kind of crazy. It was 28 days ago that Rudy Gobert tested positive and completely turned the discussion in our country. Think about how quickly the discussion changed as soon as he tested positive. The NBA suspended their season, and everyone else finally started taking things more seriously as well. That feels like 4 years ago, not 4 weeks ago.


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> Another thing to keep in mind on anecdotes, is the "current" state of things has changed very rapidly. Two weeks ago we had basically very little testing happening in Utah. Today we're being held up as a national example on testing protocols.
> 
> Things have changed quickly. I don't know of anything else in my lifetime that more analysis and rapid change that has every happened as the last four weeks of my life. It's been kind of crazy. It was 28 days ago that Rudy Gobert tested positive and completely turned the discussion in our country. Think about how quickly the discussion changed as soon as he tested positive. The NBA suspended their season, and everyone else finally started taking things more seriously as well. That feels like 4 years ago, not 4 weeks ago.


Friendly reminder that the Jazz ruined basketball.


----------



## Catherder

RandomElk16 said:


> Friendly reminder that the Jazz ruined basketball.


You mean it wasn't LeBron?


----------



## Catherder

CPAjeff said:


> Spoiler alert - Clemson is going to win it all.


:O>>:

(and it isn't the McDonalds. )


----------



## Catherder

riptheirlips said:


> Seen a report last night that Italy deaths from Corona are not accurate, they said the actual number of deaths from the virus could be as low as 12% of what they are reporting. Seems they had people with pneumonia, strokes, heart attacks whatever that they basically just said it was Corona. I think the same thing is happening in the US


That's odd, I have read a number of reports that have indicated that coronavirus deaths have likely been *underreported*, but ok.

So Italy's period of their ER's and ICU's being overrun for several weeks, of running out of medical supplies and coffins, and requiring the military to come to afflicted areas to help take care of and remove the deceased is just a massive run of coincidental bad luck? Similar problems with New York City?

I have a hard time believing that.


----------



## middlefork

Fake news! Every video I've seen of the bodies being loaded in trailers is the same body, trailer, fork lift and personnel.


----------



## Critter

Was there someone on here that was touting Sweeden's approach to the virus?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-already-be-backfiring/ar-BB12ohla?li=BBnb7Kz

Like all news stories take it for what it is worth but..........


----------



## DallanC

Critter said:


> Was there someone on here that was touting Sweeden's approach to the virus?
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-already-be-backfiring/ar-BB12ohla?li=BBnb7Kz
> 
> Like all news stories take it for what it is worth but..........


Yes me. And looking at that article, so what. As the article states, they have an infection rate of 0.0007693% ... extremely tiny.

Article also states: 


> "Sweden's elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors"


So with limited testing, its skewing the numbers. If you only test the sickest people, then of course it would show a higher mortality rate than if you had broader test among the population.

Truth is we have no idea what the situation is there. We do know their economy is still very strong however, people working and carrying on with their lives.

Here in the USA, we know this:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...ing-speed/ar-BB12o0Ak?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=U345DHP

Which results in more unemployment, more people losing health insurance, which means more stressed and sick people, which means even more demands on healthcare.

A friend in Tuscon recently mentioned that Tuscon is experiencing a dramatic increase in suicides per day from depressed people since the "Stay at home" policies were enacted. IDK if there are any numbers on changes in suicide rates here in Utah, but it would be interesting to see.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> Critter said:
> 
> 
> 
> Was there someone on here that was touting Sweeden's approach to the virus?
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-already-be-backfiring/ar-BB12ohla?li=BBnb7Kz
> 
> Like all news stories take it for what it is worth but..........
> 
> 
> 
> Yes me. And looking at that article, so what. As the article states, they have an infection rate of 0.0007693% ... extremely tiny.
> 
> Article also states:
> 
> 
> 
> "Sweden's elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors"
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> So with limited testing, its skewing the numbers. If you only test the sickest people, then of course it would show a higher mortality rate than if you had broader test among the population.
> 
> Truth is we have no idea what the situation is there. We do know their economy is still very strong however, people working and carrying on with their lives.
> 
> Here in the USA, we know this:
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...ing-speed/ar-BB12o0Ak?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=U345DHP
> 
> Which results in more unemployment, more people losing health insurance, which means more stressed and sick people, which means even more demands on healthcare.
> 
> A friend in Tuscon recently mentioned that Tuscon is experiencing a dramatic increase in suicides per day from depressed people since the "Stay at home" policies were enacted. IDK if there are any numbers on changes in suicide rates here in Utah, but it would be interesting to see.
> 
> -DallanC
Click to expand...

"Could be a result of its low testing rates" is significantly more hedged than your confident statement that "it's skewing the results". We simply don't know and it's way to early to draw many conclusions about what the most successful strategy will have been.

Ultimately we do know their fatalities per million citizens is high; that's not skewed by any of the variables you describe. That outcome is currently 50% worse than the US's.


----------



## DallanC

backcountry said:


> "Could be a result of its low testing rates" is significantly more hedged than your confident statement that "it's skewing the results".


That article is pretty much an opinion piece. The words "could be", "could have", "could still" etc appear 8 times. The only real facts in that article are the infected count, death count and that they dont test as much as other countries.

My confident statement in my reply was: "*Truth is we have no idea what the situation is there.*"



> We simply don't know and it's way to early to draw many conclusions about what the most successful strategy will have been.


Which is pretty much what I said in the bolded line above.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> "Could be a result of its low testing rates" is significantly more hedged than your confident statement that "it's skewing the results".
> 
> 
> 
> That article is pretty much an opinion piece. The words "could be", "could have", "could still" etc appear 8 times. The only real facts in that article are the infected count, death count and that they dont test as much as other countries.
> 
> My confident statement in my reply was: "*Truth is we have no idea what the situation is there.*"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We simply don't know and it's way to early to draw many conclusions about what the most successful strategy will have been.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Which is pretty much what I said in the bolded line above.
> 
> -DallanC
Click to expand...

True with the exception you said it was skewing the data. And the deaths per million citizens is a significant indicator of outcomes and they have the 12th highest number in the world right now. That will change but it's hard to applaud their strategy with that outcome at this point. 50% worse than us isn't exactly an outcome I want for my nation or communities.

Not to mention fatalities are a lagging indicator and from current reporting it sounds like Sweden is experiencing growth at this point. Not a pretty picture.

* "Could" when talking about statistics is a way of inserting untested hypotheses into the conversation. Hence the criticism of "is skewing the results" which is a statement of fact that can't actually be substantiated.


----------



## backcountry

For comparison, would most of us be happy if we had an additional 8200 deaths in the US right now? (I believe it's a linear relationship but it's been a while since I took stats).


----------



## backcountry

Further comparison, those 24,000 hypothetically "confirmed" deaths, assuming we could replicate the Swedish strategy linearly, would match the total number of estimated deaths from seasonal flu in the US for the totality of the 2019-20 season. Those are the estimated deaths based upon CDC modeling including deaths burdened by influenza.

That would be the same number of all deaths in 8 weeks of Covid-19 (realistically closer to 6 given when we really starting seeing fatalities from community spread) versus almost an entire season of influenza.

I hope that helps people see why we are treating this so differently. Even the 16000 confirmed deaths that have actually happened in the US, with measures more severe than used to mitigate influenza, is an alarming number for so little time. Especially since we are still seeing roughly 30k new infections a day and almost 2k deaths a day sustained now.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm


----------



## RandomElk16

Is there really a debate that lack of testing skews the numbers? When it's "case fatality" it's impossible that it doesn't. When it's "per capita fatality" it doesn't matter. Where that is skewed is finding the true cause of death - which right now they don't. 



We could test 0 people and have 0 confirmed cases and solve this whole thing right now.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Is there really a debate that lack of testing skews the numbers? When it's "case fatality" it's impossible that it doesn't. When it's "per capita fatality" it doesn't matter. Where that is skewed is finding the true cause of death - which right now they don't.
> 
> We could test 0 people and have 0 confirmed cases and solve this whole thing right now.


Sweden doesn't have a lack of testing just a relatively lower rate than neighboring countries. I didn't see an explanation why so it's difficult at best to draw conclusions from that information.

Their testing numbers could impact CFR but we have no clue how or what it's doing without more data. I've largely stopped reading up on CFR as it's a constantly moving target especially as a comparison between countries/strategies.

Hence focus on fatalities per 1M population. They are not fairing well in that department. And they don't seem to be near the peak of their curve.

Applauding Sweden, as DallanC did, because their strategy matches one's political ideology, or preferred strategy (etc), is one thing. But let's be honest about how the outcome of those choices are at best a mixed bag. DallanC's "who cares" is a rather callous statement when their fatalities per million citizens is 50% higher than ours.


----------



## backcountry

For those who need visual evidence that this isn't just the flu. New York is suddenly burying 5 times as many dead a week in their location for unclaimed bodies. Happens every flu season though, right?

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74ap9/you-can-see-new-york-citys-mass-graves-from-space


----------



## 2full

One funeral home director said he get as many call a day as he used to get in a month...…..:shock:


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, the burden of this is immense in that fashion. Not only on those services but on families unable to move forward in funerals and memorials in many states.

Unfortunately, there is evidence that the outbreak in the Chicago region can actually be traced to two events, one was a funeral. What a horrible position to be in. Go to a ceremony and possibly spread a disease or have it put off indefinitely.

My parents went to a funeral when it started spreading rapidly and I was worried for multiple weeks until the incubation time passed. Hard to socially distance at a funeral in which solidarity and mourning are the ritual.

Sad times. I feel for all of those families in NY unable to claim their relatives bodies yet. 

But it's just like the flu. At least I keep hearing that.


----------



## backcountry

Definitely a sad week for infection numbers and fatalities. More than 2000 fellow Americans died today from Covid-19. Hard not to mourn that reality. 

We also surpassed 500k confirmed cases. The rate seems to be stabilizing some if I'm reading it right.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> For those who need visual evidence that this isn't just the flu. New York is suddenly burying 5 times as many dead a week in their location for unclaimed bodies. Happens every flu season though, right?
> 
> https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74ap9/you-can-see-new-york-citys-mass-graves-from-space


NY had an absolutely wreckless response to this. Their subways were packed, and were many of the "unclaimed" hang out.

I don't know what I can trust out of NY though - or the way they are handling this. How many unclaimed have happened? The Hart Island stories make it seem like tens of thousands.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> For those who need visual evidence that this isn't just the flu. New York is suddenly burying 5 times as many dead a week in their location for unclaimed bodies. Happens every flu season though, right?
> 
> https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74ap9/you-can-see-new-york-citys-mass-graves-from-space
> 
> 
> 
> NY had an absolutely wreckless response to this. Their subways were packed, and were many of the "unclaimed" hang out.
> 
> I don't know what I can trust out of NY though - or the way they are handling this. How many unclaimed have happened? The Hart Island stories make it seem like tens of thousands.
Click to expand...

Reports are from third party drone footage, not the state, but sounds like roughly 5x the normal amount of burial in the mass graves. Not tens of thousands but significant.

Talk about reckless. Washington City hit national news. This is why I'm very hesitant to believe we are anywhere near the peak in my region. So many people traveling this weekend.


----------



## Critter

I don't know why NY doesn't just obtain a DNA sample off of the body and then cremate them. A person takes up a lot less space when he can fit into a cigar box.


----------



## Jedidiah

Cremation is specifically banned by a major religion in New York.


----------



## Critter

Jedidiah said:


> Cremation is specifically banned by a major religion in New York.


The ones that I'm talking about are the homeless or those that have no family to take possession of the body. You know, the 99% that no one cares about.


----------



## backcountry

Critter said:


> I don't know why NY doesn't just obtain a DNA sample off of the body and then cremate them. A person takes up a lot less space when he can fit into a cigar box.


I would guess there are laws preventing cremation without consent, for a myriad of reasons. This seems especially true during a pandemic when many family members legitimately can't claim bodies because of statewide orders.

Not to mention these individuals die alone in hospitals as visitation is prohibited. I can't imagine how tough it is for hospital staff on a regular day to track down loved ones but it must be extremely difficult as so many people are being admitted with unusually severe conditions. The logistics must be a nightmare. Doing a potentially interim burial and doing the best due diligence possible to track down family seems like an acceptable kindness for a state, even if it's not legally mandated.


----------



## Vanilla

With no order to close down business, I can honestly say I do not fault anyone that chooses to remain open when they are allowed to do so. Can anyone truly say they are not informed about the possibilities here? And going and getting your nails done seems unnecessary right now. (But I always think it’s unnecessary when my wife does it...) But that also means those people doing nails may not be able to pay bills or feed their families. Quite the conundrum. 

The woman in the video makes a good point that I’m not sure there is a good answer to right now: If I close my doors, I’m not sure I will be able to open them again when this is done.

That is a scary reality for many small businesses. Just like the health implications are a scary reality for many individuals. A life is a life, regardless of what the plague affecting it is. Everyone is getting hit in one way or another right now. We can’t forget all this impacts real humans in very real ways every single day. This is the toughest situation I think the world has been faced with in my entire lifetime. No good answer, so we press forward. As temps continue to warm and time goes on, there is no doubt people are going to get impatient and try to get back to “normal” (whatever that looks like) sooner than later. And that may cause a renewal of spread and another peak. That just might be our grim reality. Who really knows? 

What I do know is 2020 can go pound sand.


----------



## backcountry

2020 can definitely.....(fill in the blank)

I totally understand the business struggle and at least many seemed to be trying social distancing measures. The "reckless" comparison was more the ones still acting normal. We took a local scenic drive yesterday and we saw several multifamily picnics with zero distancing going on. And I got some serious dirty looks for wearing my RZ mask and single use gloves yesterday during a curbside pickup (felt weird after I think 3 weeks of no community "contact" other than contactless delivery to house).
Its unfortunate to see so few people wearing masks. Seems people still think that's about protecting themselves when it's largely about protecting others.

So be it. I seem to live in an area in which large portions of people just aren't taking it seriously. Could work out fine but I'm doubtful. It definitely means our household will have to limit contact with our community longer than hoped. But in reading the Governor's plan we are likely homebound in a historically unusual fashion for a long period of time under even ideal progress.


----------



## Catherder

Today's stats are out and one can look at the week as a whole. If you look at the new case count for the most recent 6 days and compare them to the previous 6 days, it definitely looks like a downward trend. The set beginning 6 days ago includes all 4 of the highest new case count days of the outbreak.

It's too early to celebrate much but it is at least suggestive that progress is being made. It may help a tiny bit with the gloom and doom. 

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> Today's stats are out and one can look at the week as a whole. If you look at the new case count for the most recent 6 days and compare them to the previous 6 days, it definitely looks like a downward trend. The set beginning 6 days ago includes all 4 of the highest new case count days of the outbreak.
> 
> It's too early to celebrate much but it is at least suggestive that progress is being made. It may help a tiny bit with the gloom and doom.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


So let's say we are on the downward side of the curve hypothetically. I think we would all celebrate that good news.

But how in the world would Utah have managed to peak so low and so early? Just seems odd to me that we could have come out so relatively unscathed compared to other areas. Models get it wrong all the time but peaking two weeks earlier that projected seems odd.

The question is mostly rhetorical as there won't be an easy way to ever know if that turns out the be outcome. There are the questions of environment that could eventually be found to contribute. There are the stricter measures up north in our hotspots. Could be relative timing of cases compared to rest of nation.

I'm definitely not expecting us to have peaked yet but if in hindsight that turned out to be the case....that's brilliant. I'll take any luck and success we can get. But I'm definitely left with more questions than answers right now.


----------



## CPAjeff

backcountry said:


> But how in the world would Utah have managed to peak so low and so early? Just seems odd to me that we could have come out so relatively unscathed compared to other areas. Models get it wrong all the time but peaking two weeks earlier that projected seems odd.


It probably has nothing to do with a couple different fasts ...


----------



## middlefork

CPAjeff said:


> It probably has nothing to do with a couple different fasts ...


If nothing else it will be good practice. :smile:


----------



## Vanilla

The “peak” projection depended upon who you were listening to. We had a team of biostatisticians here at the University of Utah this week say they anticipated the peak to begin by Friday (yesterday). Two full weeks before the University of Washington projections were at last I looked. I’m a Ute, not a Husky. I’m sticking with our peeps!  

I haven’t pulled up the Washington stuff again yet. I’m waiting until Monday so I can do another comparison to previous projections one week apart. 

You’ll recall the projection from the two previous Mondays that I compared on here were VASTLY different. I’m hoping we’ll see another drop in their projections. Standby, I’ll pull it up Monday again. (Fingers crossed)


----------



## brisket

*Don't believe the propaganda*



RandomElk16 said:


> NY had an absolutely wreckless response to this. Their subways were packed, and were many of the "unclaimed" hang out.
> 
> I don't know what I can trust out of NY though - or the way they are handling this. How many unclaimed have happened? The Hart Island stories make it seem like tens of thousands.


This article from the NY Post has the headline: *"*Drone video *may show *inmates burying coffins on NYC's infamous Hart Island*"*.

Looks horrifying, right? They show a video clip of inmates filling a trench up with coffins. You have to believe that of course, no? Then the Post explains further down in the article most won't read:



> Burials are a common sight on the island, where the city has used inmates to inter the Big Apple's anonymous and unclaimed dead for 150 years.


They have been burying John and Jane Doe's for 150 years on Hart Island. They take this story and hype it in to another fearmongering piece. Again, using the headline "*may* show". There is no evidence these are COVID-19 deaths.

The Hart Island story is just more media fearmongering that gets guys like backcountry to cower in their basement and continue to shame others. Don't believe the propaganda.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> The "peak" projection depended upon who you were listening to. We had a team of biostatisticians here at the University of Utah this week say they anticipated the peak to begin by Friday (yesterday). Two full weeks before the University of Washington projections were at last I looked. I'm a Ute, not a Husky. I'm sticking with our peeps!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I haven't pulled up the Washington stuff again yet. I'm waiting until Monday so I can do another comparison to previous projections one week apart.
> 
> You'll recall the projection from the two previous Mondays that I compared on here were VASTLY different. I'm hoping we'll see another drop in their projections. Standby, I'll pull it up Monday again. (Fingers crossed)


I'll take the UofU model if that's the case. Not sure I even remember seeing it but we've all been reading a ton these past few weeks.

Anybody know if the state is publishing our estimated R0? Isn't that what their staged plan is based around?


----------



## backcountry

brisket said:


> RandomElk16 said:
> 
> 
> 
> NY had an absolutely wreckless response to this. Their subways were packed, and were many of the "unclaimed" hang out.
> 
> I don't know what I can trust out of NY though - or the way they are handling this. How many unclaimed have happened? The Hart Island stories make it seem like tens of thousands.
> 
> 
> 
> This article from the NY Post has the headline: *"*Drone video *may show *inmates burying coffins on NYC's infamous Hart Island*"*.
> 
> Looks horrifying, right? They show a video clip of inmates filling a trench up with coffins. You have to believe that of course, no? Then the Post explains further down in the article most won't read:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Burials are a common sight on the island, where the city has used inmates to inter the Big Apple's anonymous and unclaimed dead for 150 years.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> They have been burying John and Jane Doe's for 150 years on Hart Island. They take this story and hype it in to another fearmongering piece. Again, using the headline "*may* show". There is no evidence these are COVID-19 deaths.
> 
> The Hart Island story is just more media fearmongering that gets guys like backcountry to cower in their basement and continue to shame others. Don't believe the propaganda.
Click to expand...

NY Post is about as exaggerated, tabloid media as it gets. I don't know anyone that considers them trustworthy news.

The Reuters team actually noted the historic amount and quantified the difference. It's almost like they are real journalist:

"Normally, two dozen bodies a week are buried at the site, which is intended for people with no next of kin or whose families are unable to arrange a funeral. According to Reuters, which published drone footage of the site, the bodies have started coming in at a rate of two dozen a day, five days a week.". (from the previous link)

Not to mention the footage I linked of the increased number of mass burials is no longer of inmates but professional contractors doing the digging.

I have an affinity for the perennial failure that is the "basement" insult. It's a good landmark for how desperate comments become.


----------



## backcountry

Unfortunately there are more meat processing facilities starting to feel the effects of Covid-19 as many more staff become sick and some die. I feel for these employees and companies. How do you manage their risk in such close quarters? Sounds like a couple more plants are closing and strikes are happening.

It's just one of windows into the struggles of "reopening" business in our new reality. Any business that involves close proximity will struggle if this bug sticks around or returns.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...at-colorado-meat-plant-impacts-as-many-as-300


----------



## middlefork

If you think the bug is going away anytime soon I think you are dreaming.

Unfortunately the economic reality will become a much bigger problem than even 200,000 dead.


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> If you think the bug is going away anytime soon I think you are dreaming.
> 
> Unfortunately the economic reality will become a much bigger problem than even 200,000 dead.


I definitely don't think it's going away anytime soon. My bet is Utah sees a bimodal distribution, ie a secondary peak in the next month or so. At least for my area given what I've been seeing locally. Would love to be wrong on that guess though.

I think the economic toll will last years. But so will the death toll as most only extend out to August. Both horrid in their own way and will have lasting impacts on families.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> I think the economic toll will last years. But so will the death toll as most only extend out to August. Both horrid in their own way and will have lasting impacts on families.


That is the problem with this one. There is no good answer. There isn't even a lesser of two evils to choose, in my opinion. The whole thing sucks, but man, I'm seeing some heroic things. It's amazing to see how good people truly are.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I'm pretty sure once we get through this peak period, and say it goes into remission for a little while, it will be back with a vengeance next flu season. Personally, Im considering, this round, practice for the next round. Making mental notes of what has worked, what hasn't worked, what can be improved, and what I should stock up on for the next go around.

edit:


backcountry said:


> I definitely don't think it's going away anytime soon. My bet is Utah sees a bimodal distribution, ie a secondary peak in the next month or so..


Entirely plausible. I think there's a very good chance that enough people will start going back to doing everything they did previously, out of a desperation for normality, that they give the virus a second round before next flu season.


----------



## Vanilla

Happy Monday, everyone.

*Projections on March 31st: *

Peak: estimated at April 27
ICU beds needed: 242 
Ventilators: 194 
Peak deaths per day: 16
Total deaths by Aug 4: 502

*Projections on April 6: *

Peak: estimated at April 25
ICU beds needed: 66
Ventilators: 56 
Peak deaths per day: 7
Total deaths by Aug 4: 186

*Projections on April 13: *

Peak: estimated at April 27
ICU beds needed: 60
Ventilators: 50
Peak deaths per day: 5
Total deaths by Aug 4: 188

Works Cited: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/utah
(See what you did, RemingtonCountry?)


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> Happy Monday, everyone.
> 
> *Projections on March 31st: *
> 
> Peak: estimated at April 27
> ICU beds needed: 242
> Ventilators: 194
> Peak deaths per day: 16
> Total deaths by Aug 4: 502
> 
> *Projections on April 6: *
> 
> Peak: estimated at April 25
> ICU beds needed: 66
> Ventilators: 56
> Peak deaths per day: 7
> Total deaths by Aug 4: 186
> 
> *Projections on April 13: *
> 
> Peak: estimated at April 27
> ICU beds needed: 60
> Ventilators: 50
> Peak deaths per day: 5
> Total deaths by Aug 4: 188
> 
> Works Cited: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/utah
> (See what you did, RemingtonCountry?)


So about the same.

One thing to keep in mind is "peak" for this graphic is peak resource use. Very possible as many of the worst cases limp along for a few days before becoming severely ill. Even still, if this week shows the same trend as last week, I think we can move this chart up a bit too.

Again, I will give the state good marks for their overall handling of the crisis.


----------



## Vanilla

Yep, peak resource use. I guess that was only implied with the beds/vents citation, but not specifically stated. 

Which if the incubation timeline spectrum is correct, those people that will be using the resources during the projected peak resource allocation are contracting the virus right now, or already have it.


----------



## backcountry

I understand everything but the RemingtonCountry. That one has me thrown off though turnabout is fair play. 

Hope that model keeps compressing. I would love to have my bimodal guess proven wrong and to enter phase 2 sooner than later. That would be a great outcome.

Still curious, has anyone seen an R0 published by the state? Key part of their plan.


----------



## middlefork

Remington country = siting references.


----------



## middlefork

Here is the math for R0. I believe all the info you need is on the normal state link.

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/0...sources-should-report-this-for-all-countries/


----------



## Catherder

This talks more about the difficulties in pandemic modeling. It is in a more palatable form than dense text.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/


----------



## backcountry

Middlefork,

True. I'm just waiting on the state to discuss it or add it public facing sites so we can follow along on their plan. Its their data and calculations that ultimately matter in that context. 

I know my wife's business is trying to vaguely follow state guidance on the matter in generically staging their response. An outline of sorts. I think the state has done a great job at communicating the basic disease data but I think we could benefit from coalescing it with their plan, even vaguely.

I was hesitant to think a plan was viable earlier on when Vanilla was calling for it and then linked the state's own document. I was wrong in that regard. It was obviously possible and I think we are at a stage now that having a handrail of sorts to help lead us slowly to the next phase would be helpful.


----------



## RandomElk16

Was happy to get the KSL alert today "60 new cases, 0 deaths". 

That's one of the best days I have seen in awhile. It may be a result from reduced weekend tests, but still nice to see a number like that instead of the 90-100.


----------



## Catherder

RandomElk16 said:


> Was happy to get the KSL alert today "60 new cases, 0 deaths".
> 
> That's one of the best days I have seen in awhile. It may be a result from reduced weekend tests, but still nice to see a number like that instead of the 90-100.


Yep, the weekend is part of it but it is down from the number reported a week ago. (apple to apple (weekend) comparison) Still shows an overall downward trend.

The epidemiologist said today that if we see a consistent 2 week downward trend, then we can say with more confidence that we are in good/better-than-previously-expected shape. It does sound like she likes the numbers too.

Also, of note she said that they *want* to run more tests on folks with even mild or questionable symptoms so they can get a fuller picture. Currently, we are testing way below capacity.


----------



## backcountry

Good to hear they might be moving in a new direction with testing protocol. Will be interesting to see how they roll that out. Good sign they are testing below capacity.


----------



## RandomElk16

I am looking forward to antibody tests coming out. I think that could be incredibly helpful moving ahead and knowing where we really stand with herd immunity, etc..


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> I am looking forward to antibody tests coming out. I think that could be incredibly helpful moving ahead and knowing where we really stand with herd immunity, etc..


https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/arup-laboratories-begin-covid-19-antibody-testing-in-utah

This may have been posted before. But one problem is still going to be how it's administered. The article says a health care professional has to order the sntibody test. What qualifies you for that? If it's only people that were symptomatic, it defeats the purpose on this one, in my opinion. I like that we're already to this point, but unless it's going to widespread across random populations, I think it falls short.


----------



## backcountry

Utah continues it's downward trend. Harder to be skeptical at this rate. And that trend isn't just good for the short term but the stronger the footing we have coming out of the first wave the more we can prepare for the future. I'm still keeping my guard up but appreciate the trend and how lucky we've been as a state thus far.

Those numbers helped lifts my spirits a bit after another spike in deaths nationwide. I think it's the highest rate of daily fatalities yet. Hard not to mourn for those families directly affected by severe cases of Covid-19.


----------



## olibooger

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/could-crispr-be-the-next-virus-killer/amp

This is a great idea. Let's edit and erase our genes so we can have our public travel passes. 
..and they are calling it a VACCINE. What in the world is going on??

Zombies?

Not YET

Research "gene editing vaccine"

Are you going to accept it into your body?

I'm not.

Anyone else read the studies saying the virus will come back in the fall except much worse like the Spanish pandemic? Dont get too complacent.

Best wishes ✌


----------



## backcountry

CRSPR poses all sorts of ethical risks but zombies aren't one.

Multiple waves of unknown affect are a fair, educated guess but too many variables to know anything for sure. But most people are guessing this is with us until at least next spring. 

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.


----------



## 2full

And.......he's back.


----------



## backcountry

No new bingo words. Still waiting for 5G.


----------



## Catherder

I knew there was something sinister with that bin in my fridge. It's turning my vegetables into zombies? Who would've thunk it?


----------



## caddis8

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources

So, there is increasing confidence this was not a result of wet markets, but originated in China from a lab, not man made, but still originating from a lab.

Thoughts? OOPS China if that's the case. Big OOPS.


----------



## backcountry

caddis8 said:


> https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources
> 
> So, there is increasing confidence this was not a result of wet markets, but originated in China from a lab, not man made, but still originating from a lab.
> 
> Thoughts? OOPS China if that's the case. Big OOPS.


I'm skeptical of the "increasing confidence" unsourced claim but laboratory escape is definitely in the range of possibilities. Human error is a reliable bet over time.

Given American distrust in government and tensions with China I think it's very probable we'll never know for sure. Really unfortunate combination of social ills and biological outcomes.

But I'll be honest that I'm pessimistic right now given the fatality count in the US today and how common talk of this lasting until the 2021-22 season has become. I'm buoyed by the very real picture of human ingenuity and kindness emerging each day but often shell shocked by our emerging new reality.

Wild time to be alive.


----------



## Jedidiah

There are so many reports about how early China knew about the virus, or whether they created it on purpose, why they created it. I've read a few places now that the CIA was warning about a new form of pneumonia as early as November, and saw an infographic showing that the Wuhan outbreak coincided almost perfectly with a political coup in Wuhan and a neighboring province.

China obviously hurt the international response to the virus by denying it through January, then bought up medical supplies from outside China in February, and then refused to export masks and ventilators until right about now. Regardless of any new information the world needs to see that China can't be trusted with power and needs to be subjected to an international turning away. Japan's response is a great first start by funding the removal of manufacturing from China, hopefully the rest of the world does the same and we can deflate them to workable levels.

Honestly though, what are we doing trusting a country that killed 27 to 44 million of their own people for economic gain? We sit and watch the worst humanitarian disaster in the known history of the world and ignore their economic growth and somehow we're surprised by this virus and their response?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward


----------



## RandomElk16

I love that the "China Report" came out yesterday. It's literally things we heard almost two months ago.


----------



## caddis8

RandomElk16 said:


> I love that the "China Report" came out yesterday. It's literally things we heard almost two months ago.


I read the same, however. I also read it as growing confidence through intelligence. I don't believe that it was unleased intentionally. However, it is plausible that it came from the lab into the population.

I've read a few reports that it didn't come from pangolins, but from a bat. The wet market was first blamed, but the wet market didn't sell bats.

Who knows.

I will say, however, that I've had extensive dealings in China. Many of them are very good people. Many factories have sub standard conditions. There are a ton of rich people in there, but when we argue about wealth disparity in the US, we're kidding ourselves compared to China.

It's a tough deal. Some of the reports out of Wuhan are sickening- locking people in from the outside- entire appartments full of dead people. Crematoriums working 24/7.


----------



## Catherder

The veterinary literature I've read also is saying that it was most likely from bats. Apparently, there are some bat species that are featured in wet markets. 

This is not to say that lab based origin is not possible. Right now, that theory is being "supported" more by one side of the political spectrum. That doesn't necessarily make it more or less believable, but does cause a lot of "noise" to creep in from either overly enthusiastic support or blanket denials from respective partisans. 

I do think time will tell on knowing more about the origins.


----------



## backcountry

Watching the science unfold so quickly in real time is pretty wild. We study stuff like this in the past tense in college but it's happening in front of our eyes for this pandemic.

Grateful for all the brilliant and persistent scientist out there. They'll eventually help us find a way through this alongside the frontline workers keeping our society running at this moment.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/04/14/antibody-points-to-possible-weak-spot-on-novel-coronavirus/


----------



## Vanilla

I can't wait for the vaccine to turn me into a zombie! 

I got dibs on eating boogey-man's brain matter.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> I can't wait for the vaccine to turn me into a zombie!
> 
> I got dibs on eating boogey-man's brain matter.


Ever watch iZombie? Just know what you are getting into with that dibs.


----------



## Critter

Vanilla said:


> I can't wait for the vaccine to turn me into a zombie!
> 
> I got dibs on eating boogey-man's brain matter.


Are you sure that you want to go that far even being a zombie????


----------



## Catherder

I think I will continue to pay my "They" dues and limit my zombie exposure to my vegetables. ;-)


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> I think I will continue to pay my "They" dues and limit my zombie exposure to my vegetables.


Oh so crispy


----------



## olibooger

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-yor...0200416-bjq3xmp2vfgh3f7wax3aglkkiq-story.html

Weird.

I'm not back trust me. I'm only dropping content to support what I've been saying. I am far beyond discussing the nature of humanity with some of humanities finest. &#128076;

Cannibalism. Ridiculed for mentioning it before. Anyone remember? Of course this article says "may have" which leaves room for speculation. Sure am glad we are safe in our Utah bubble.

No. I dont lurk around here. I dont read any of the threads or visit this site until more information surfaces that supports what I have said and will continue to say.

Deny it all you want. It's still coming wether you want to believe it or not. 
✌

I dont read any one single portion of any thread. So if you are someone who is saying something about what I'm posting, I'm not reading it. Nor am I reading private messages. I asked for my account to be deleted. And it wasnt. 
So, here we are. 
Best wishes until next time!


----------



## backcountry

Dammit, my card doesn't have "cannibalism". Anybody win with that?

Can't win every time. Still waiting for Vanillabooger to emerge as anointed Zombie King. We all know UrinalCake will be the hand.



> "What's the line? 'The King ****s, and the Hand wipes.'"
> ―Ser Jaime Lannister


The irony will be unavoidable as bidets sweep the land.


----------



## Vanilla

olibooger said:


> I'm not back trust me.


Liar.



olibooger said:


> No. I dont lurk around here. I dont read any of the threads or visit this site...


Liar.



olibooger said:


> I dont read any one single portion of any thread. So if you are someone who is saying something about what I'm posting, I'm not reading it.


And liar.


----------



## johnnycake

2full said:


> And.......he's back.


He lasted longer than I thought he would this time


----------



## Animediniol

Catherder said:


> The veterinary literature I've read also is saying that it was most likely from bats. Apparently, there are some bat species that are featured in wet markets.
> 
> This is not to say that lab based origin is not possible. Right now, that theory is being "supported" more by one side of the political spectrum. That doesn't necessarily make it more or less believable, but does cause a lot of "noise" to creep in from either overly enthusiastic support or blanket denials from respective partisans.
> 
> I do think time will tell on knowing more about the origins.


China is really a joke country. Well they said the virus came from bats but there they go again selling dead bats in the market. LMAO


----------



## alaska

2full said:


> And.......he's back.


Haha ROFL


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

op2:


----------



## Jedidiah

Animediniol said:


> China is really a joke country. Well they said the virus came from bats but there they go again selling dead bats in the market. LMAO


Ya know it's funny, I've had this need to engage with people in a conversation about the period of time that the Chinese call the "Great Leap" for a long time before this virus hoopla even happened. It's always seemed super crazy to me that we'll go kill people over a few hundred deaths in a country with no ability to affect the world but we watched China kill more civilians than anyone has ever killed in the history of the world by three times if you only accept the low estimates of the death toll of that period of time. We watched a totalitarian communist regime rise to power, we watched this incredible unchecked economic growth, terrible amounts of pollution and a voracious appetite for oil that increased the price of gasoline worldwide, atrocious business practices, corruption, genocide of ethnic muslims. SARS was bungled by the Chinese and nothing happened, then this virus.

What kind of idiots let China run like this? Are we really letting them put the entire human race at risk for cheap electronics?


----------



## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> Animediniol said:
> 
> 
> 
> China is really a joke country. Well they said the virus came from bats but there they go again selling dead bats in the market. LMAO
> 
> 
> 
> Ya know it's funny, I've had this need to engage with people in a conversation about the period of time that the Chinese call the "Great Leap" for a long time before this virus hoopla even happened. It's always seemed super crazy to me that we'll go kill people over a few hundred deaths in a country with no ability to affect the world but we watched China kill more civilians than anyone has ever killed in the history of the world by three times if you only accept the low estimates of the death toll of that period of time. We watched a totalitarian communist regime rise to power, we watched this incredible unchecked economic growth, terrible amounts of pollution and a voracious appetite for oil that increased the price of gasoline worldwide, atrocious business practices, corruption, genocide of ethnic muslims. SARS was bungled by the Chinese and nothing happened, then this virus.
> 
> What kind of idiots let China run like this? Are we really letting them put the entire human race at risk for cheap electronics?
Click to expand...

China's government is a nasty authoritarian regime only interested in it's own survival.

But it's not just cheap electronics that cause "us" to interact this way with them. It's even more than the fact that they have 85% of the world's known rare earth minerals (we get 80% of our need from them); as a gross generalization, everything technology basically relies on those.

I'm guessing it might even be more complex than the fact that the country accounts for 1/5 of the world's population or how they are geopolitically aligned.

You combine all of those elements, and many more, and aggression and direct confrontation aren't exactly an appealing or successful strategy. Including when they mishandle, at best, a virus spreading globally.

The situation sucks but there isn't an easy solution (or one at all?) when handling a regime uniquely situated like theirs.


----------



## Jedidiah

Rare earth elements aren't really that rare speaking from a geological distribution viewpoint. Neodymium for example is pretty common. Getting meaningful amounts of rare earth elements is hard because of their distribution and lack of concentration in what we are calling deposits, which are mining sites that don't compare at all to the concentration of metals like iron and copper at other mines. The reason we pretend China has all the rare earth elements is actually because they're willing to destroy their environment to acquire the amounts of rare earth elements needed for electronics. 

A war against China is definitely not feasible. Sustained economic battering would eventually do the trick though.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Regarding China, I'm reminded of this video. It's our own dang fault really. The Buy American campaign from the 80s-90s, needs to make a come back. I remember many products were American made up until 1994 or so.


----------



## backcountry

Anybody see this?



> Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.


I'm glad Utah has the ability to open up testing more loosely now that we have more resources than demand. The data should help us better understand the spread and where we are actually at in Utah.

But that sample mentioned in the article is a scary example of how difficult it might be to manage the transition to the next phase and slowly "reopen".

https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/


----------



## Dunkem

This is kind of getting like the old dead horse guys, find something cheerful to talk about, is it duck season yet?


----------



## middlefork

Dunkem said:


> This is kind of getting like the old dead horse guys, find something cheerful to talk about, is it duck season yet?


 #openstateparks 

Duck season is months away and who eats ducks anyway?

Sun today, sun tomorrow, rain on Sunday. Exciting stuff!

Sorry for the most part the conversation has been good.


----------



## middlefork

backcountry said:


> Anybody see this?
> 
> I'm glad Utah has the ability to open up testing more loosely now that we have more resources than demand. The data should help us better understand the spread and where we are actually at in Utah.
> 
> But that sample mentioned in the article is a scary example of how difficult it might be to manage the transition to the next phase and slowly "reopen".
> 
> https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/


And through all the testing we are still at a 5% positive rate. So what is the gain?


----------



## CPAjeff

Dunkem said:


> This is kind of getting like the old dead horse guys, find something cheerful to talk about, is it duck season yet?


Like bidets?

Crimping rifle bullets?

Mechanical vs. Fixed blade broadheads?

6.5 Creed for elk?



This thread is like 99% of the comments on every KSL story . . . hilarious and scary at the same time!


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> But that sample mentioned in the article is a scary example of how difficult it might be to manage the transition to the next phase and slowly "reopen".
> 
> https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/


Are you just using this as illustrative of some the issues surrounding this virus? Or do you view this as new information? I kind of feel like this anecdote just goes to confirm what we've been told before the US even had its first confirmed case.

The more things "change" with this, it feels the more it was just as it appeared in the beginning. Am I too simplistic in that thinking?


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Anybody see this?
> 
> I'm glad Utah has the ability to open up testing more loosely now that we have more resources than demand. The data should help us better understand the spread and where we are actually at in Utah.
> 
> But that sample mentioned in the article is a scary example of how difficult it might be to manage the transition to the next phase and slowly "reopen".
> 
> https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/
> 
> 
> 
> And through all the testing we are still at a 5% positive rate. So what is the gain?
Click to expand...

Utah's positive rate is based upon the testing criteria which until recently were pretty stringent, is showing multiple symptoms. With the recent change I'm skeptical the 5% rate will hold.

The data would be helpful in targeting cases more effectively. My understanding is the next phase is only successful with aggressive contact tracing and self-quarantines. None of that works if we don't amplify testing rates noticeably. If we have a huge ratio of asymptomatic people walking around we are more likely to see multiple waves that could require broader measures from the government.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> But that sample mentioned in the article is a scary example of how difficult it might be to manage the transition to the next phase and slowly "reopen".
> 
> https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/
> 
> 
> 
> Are you just using this as illustrative of some the issues surrounding this virus? Or do you view this as new information? I kind of feel like this anecdote just goes to confirm what we've been told before the US even had its first confirmed case.
> 
> The more things "change" with this, it feels the more it was just as it appeared in the beginning. Am I too simplistic in that thinking?
Click to expand...

Definitely anecdotal but the asymptomatic rates seem higher than originally thought even in early March. Granted, the information out of China was either veiled or distorted.

I'm not aware of a situation in the US that has seen testing reveal a scenario like this homeless shelter does. Could be a one-off. But it's obviously caught the CDCs attention which means it at least has potential to change some of our framework on how this virus spreads.

But yes, incidents like this definitely expose some of the difficult logistics we'll face in combating spread in the months or years to come.

Only time will tell.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> But yes, incidents like this definitely expose some of the difficult logistics we'll face in combating spread in the months or years to come.
> 
> Only time will tell.


My guess if we waded through a hundred pages we'd find you making a comment like this more than once before. That is not a criticism of you at all, just showing I don't think it has changed much.

Isn't the entire social distancing for everyone that's been preached to us from day 1 all about the fact that we may be infected and not know it? I just don't see it as new information.

Odd that this many people in one spot were asymptomatic? Maybe. But still nothing new from what we've been told all along. More confirmation of theories than anything else, from my perspective.


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> Odd that this many people in one spot were asymptomatic? Maybe. But still nothing new from what we've been told all along. More confirmation of theories than anything else, from my perspective.


Or Occums Razor: The antibody tests are extremely inaccurate.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> Odd that this many people in one spot were asymptomatic? Maybe. But still nothing new from what we've been told all along. More confirmation of theories than anything else, from my perspective.
> 
> 
> 
> Or Occums Razor: The antibody tests are extremely inaccurate.
> 
> -DallanC
Click to expand...

These weren't antibody tests. They were the standard nasal swab PCR tests that looked for virus RNA strands.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> But yes, incidents like this definitely expose some of the difficult logistics we'll face in combating spread in the months or years to come.
> 
> Only time will tell.
> 
> 
> 
> My guess if we waded through a hundred pages we'd find you making a comment like this more than once before. That is not a criticism of you at all, just showing I don't think it has changed much.
> 
> Isn't the entire social distancing for everyone that's been preached to us from day 1 all about the fact that we may be infected and not know it? I just don't see it as new information.
> 
> Odd that this many people in one spot were asymptomatic? Maybe. But still nothing new from what we've been told all along. More confirmation of theories than anything else, from my perspective.
Click to expand...

The only new information would be the scale of asymptomatic carriers if this incident is emblematic of the disease at large. That's a big IF. But that change has profound implications of it's supported by further analysis. We haven't seen a report like this stateside from what I can tell, even if people hypothesized it was possible/probable.

I find information like this interesting and curious. I totally understand why others may not. Having a massive reservoir of asymptomatic carriers like this article reports on exposes how many questions remain unanswered. It's the fun part of science to me.


----------



## Jedidiah

Vanilla said:


> My guess if we waded through a hundred pages we'd find you making a comment like this more than once before. That is not a criticism of you at all, just showing I don't think it has changed much.
> 
> Isn't the entire social distancing for everyone that's been preached to us from day 1 all about the fact that we may be infected and not know it? I just don't see it as new information.
> 
> Odd that this many people in one spot were asymptomatic? Maybe. But still nothing new from what we've been told all along. More confirmation of theories than anything else, from my perspective.


It's because you're still thinking of this situation as something you'll be seeing the tail end of. This isn't ending, we have COVID-19 now. You'll have cold, flu and COVID-19 season now, it's forever. This is why we need to take China to task and keep them in line from now on.


----------



## ridgetop

It blows my mind to think how many people as of today, still think COVID-19 is over-rated and it is no worse than the common flu. They even state facts like more people die because of DUI's than COVID-19. 
I'm willing to bet if these restrictions we have in place right now wouldn't have gone into effect. We would be looking at well over 100,000 dead by now and probably more like 300,000+ by the end of May. I'm guessing we will still see 100,000+ dead by the middle of May, even with all these restrictions and that's only two months from when the death count was less than 100 nationwide.


----------



## backcountry

Watching that type of information comment spread is disheartening. I have a gut feeling it will amp up once we are on the (first?) sustained decrease in cases and deaths. Sadly it looks like we are still around the first peak nationally after 2500 deaths yesterday and 32,000 new cases. You would think 37000 confirmed deaths would be enough evidence but even that's being questioned.

Conspiracy theories and denial root in just about any crack or crevice.

The good news is most Americans seem to understand the scale of this disease according to polling. I haven't seen too many polls the last 15 years with such agreement actually. I find hope in that despite comments on the internet.


----------



## Vanilla

ridgetop said:


> It blows my mind to think how many people as of today, still think COVID-19 is over-rated and it is no worse than the common flu. They even state facts like more people die because of DUI's than COVID-19.


I haven't seen the DUI claim, that one is funny. New York in the last two months has had almost double the amount of people that died from covid-19 than from DUI crashes all year in the entire country.

Before you think I'm downplaying DUI, realize stopping impaired drivers is my passion. It is a VERY serious issue. And to think we lose about ~10,000 people per year across the country from this entirely preventable situation is heartbreaking.

How many deaths due to corona were/will be preventable?

Yes, the corona is serious. Yes, drastic measures were appropriate. Yes, eventually, we have to start building back to normal. (Whatever that means going forward)


----------



## Catherder

There is some really crazy conspiracy theory stuff making the rounds.

https://kutv.com/news/coronavirus/virus-fueled-conspiracy-theories-take-aim-at-hospitals

(I'm sure Oli will keep us updated)

The sad thing is some of it targets the very health care providers that are out there trying to help us. Good grief.:x


----------



## backcountry

And there isn't a reliable way to combat it.

Hadn't heard the "mole" children one. 

My parents thought for a while it was a virus designed to reduce the number of people on SSA benefits, ie boomers. No clue where they got that from but in their case it definitely sticks partly because of the need for "order" in times of chaos. 

I think I'm going to put on a headlamp and go explore some of these clandestine tunnels beneath our hospitals. I'm thinking Stranger Things may be a documentary after all. 😬🤪


----------



## backcountry

Numbers this week/weekend are discouraging. These would likely be the cases first appearing from the start of Easter Weekend (5+ average days to symptom onset, 1-3 days for tests). We aren't close to being away from the peak yet. Still somewhere around the apex or top of plateau, even if backside. 

IHME/Washington model seems to be looking more viable. I can't imagine the multiple protests in the state with people in close proximity without PPE will help the outcome.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Numbers this week/weekend are discouraging. These would likely be the cases first appearing from the start of Easter Weekend (5+ average days to symptom onset, 1-3 days for tests). We aren't close to being away from the peak yet. Still somewhere around the apex or top of plateau, even if backside.
> 
> IHME/Washington model seems to be looking more viable. I can't imagine the multiple protests in the state with people in close proximity without PPE will help the outcome.


Maybe, but there are some considerations.

We tested a lot more people this week. Remember, that negative results are slower to be reported than positives, and even without that reality, this weeks test numbers are a good bit higher than last weeks. The positive rate continues to be about the same at 5%. Many of this weeks numbers easily could be folks that should have been picked up last week but were declined for testing based on the previously stricter testing criteria.

Also, even with the higher testing, the cases counts this week are in the same range as the top 3 days the previous week. Remember that most of those low days also had low testing.

To me, it appears that we are at a sort of plateau right now and things are cautiously encouraging. Next week will be key, but I think it is still possible that thoughtful loosening of restrictions can be done around May 1 as the governor is hoping for. (Assuming a bunch of jackwagons don't mess things up with their protests.)


----------



## backcountry

The constantly changing parameters for testing could/will affect any conclusions. But that's been a reality since the beginning.

Will be interesting to see if the testing totals keep up with the numbers posted for the 16th. That would be real helpful in providing data moving forward.

I am not attached to changes on May 1st. That still seems like an arbitrary date. I was shocked by the mixed messaging Herbert presented on Friday (I think he's under some political pressures from the legislature this last week, likely a byproduct of the sausage making). I can't remember the exact words but he said something along the lines of being passed the peak; looking at data that seems to be a hard conclusion to support. At the beginning of the week it was looking like a downward trend but that's not the case yet for the 2 week trend. I think its very possible we could be at a plateau, even the backside of it, but its way to early to say we are passed the peak. This coming week will help expose the direction of the bigger trend. 

Was nice being optimistic for a few days but its definitely not the case for me now. And from what I'm seeing around here and reports from friends, S. Utah could see a spike. Not really possible to project accurately but people I see aren't wearing masks and many aren't taking social distancing seriously. I'm still seeing a ton of multi-household gatherings. Seeing that and this week's numbers is why I am discouraged. 

Hopefully this coming week will prove that perspective wrong.

(Point of clarity: I'm not subscribing to the IHME dates for "reopening" either, that seems fairly far along in the projected curve and seems an unbalanced approach, ie not enough emphasis on economy/lifestyles)


----------



## Critter

I wonder why so much emphasis is being placed on testing. It is fine and dandy to see if you have the virus but doesn't do a thing about you getting the virus tomorrow. 

The way people are acting you would think that you are immune to it once you are tested.

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## Dunkem

This is becoming confusing, we are told to stay home, which most do, things start to look better so people in Florida flock to the beaches? Salt Lake has a gathering of approx. 1000 people uptown, uhhhh are not people still being diagnosed daily? I just want to go have a quiet beer.


----------



## DallanC

We just got home from HomeDepot picking up a shower door we had on order. Place was stupidly busy, hard to find a parking spot. 

Service desk guy helping us said it was even busier this morning, as bad as Black Friday. He said people were shoving their way in, fights broke out in the parking lot, and one guy tried to run over an employee with his truck. Police and ambulances called out. Police were still there in the afternoon just now trying to keep people in line.

This was in American Fork, on a Sunday. Its getting crazy out there.


-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Critter said:


> I wonder why so much emphasis is being placed on testing. It is fine and dandy to see if you have the virus but doesn't do a thing about you getting the virus tomorrow.
> 
> The way people are acting you would think that you are immune to it once you are tested.
> 
> Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


By individuals, probably comfort of diagnosis. But yeah, it's just a snapshot of that moment if negative.

In general....it's key information for data driven decision making. It's difficult to move out of current phase without knowing general trends and hopefully a picture of transmission rate, even if imperfect. We can confidently start the process of "reopening" if we know tests start to fall below a certain threshold.

And then testing becomes key for continued containment. With it we can keep society at large open and do supported quarantines for those who test positive and those with contact, ie key to have an "army" of contact tracers.


----------



## middlefork

I agree "social distancing" is a wise move and people should try and comply.

The whole mask and glove thing by the general public is a giant waste of resources. Very few understand how contamination and decontamination works. As it stands now there are a bunch of uneducated people running around feeling all bullet proof. They worry me more than people without masks.


----------



## olibooger

Nevermind me but check this out.

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pe...KArdlxPS16Cr6tTssbPpNnmZK4xtiHYcTVIPiSHL4wqZc


----------



## backcountry

Futures dropping again? 

Someone lucky must have "Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation" on their bingo card. 

Boogie oogie folks...


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

olibooger said:


> Nevermind me but check this out.
> 
> https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pe...KArdlxPS16Cr6tTssbPpNnmZK4xtiHYcTVIPiSHL4wqZc


Sad that some people might believe this.


----------



## Jedidiah




----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Futures dropping again?
> 
> Someone lucky must have "Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation" on their bingo card.
> 
> Boogie oogie folks...


That would be me. Winner, winner, chicken dinner. Looks like my prize is a roll of toilet paper.

This next round will be tough though. I have mole children in the center square. :neutral:


----------



## Vanilla

There was a petition on Change.org for the government to construct a Death Star. I guess all other planets better be on the lookout! It's totally going to happen.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> There was a petition on Change.org for the government to construct a Death Star. I guess all other planets better be on the lookout! It's totally going to happen.


We all know that Emperor Palpatine runs "They".


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> We all know that Emperor Palpatine runs "They".


I actually didn't know that, but since you posted it on the Internet, it has to be true. And I know it now!

Friggin Paplatine. Ben Solo and Rey are going to save us from the Rona. Don't worry.


----------



## Vanilla

Here is my weekly update on the Washington projections for peak resource use, a day late. I'm sorry, I was practice social distancing yesterday.

*Projections on March 31st:*

Peak: estimated at April 27
ICU beds needed: 242
Ventilators: 194
Peak deaths per day: 16
Total deaths by Aug 4: 502

*Projections on April 6:*

Peak: estimated at April 25
ICU beds needed: 66
Ventilators: 56
Peak deaths per day: 7
Total deaths by Aug 4: 186

*Projections on April 13:*

Peak: estimated at April 27
ICU beds needed: 60
Ventilators: 50
Peak deaths per day: 5
Total deaths by Aug 4: 188

*Projections on April 21:*

Peak: estimated at April 24
ICU beds needed: 66
Ventilators: 57
Peak deaths per day: 7
Total deaths by Aug 4: 202

Works Cited: https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...f-america/utah


----------



## backcountry

What could go wrong with a legislature funding a drug with no known scientific efficacy being pushed by a private company who just happened to stockpile the key ingredients and then soliciting our government? Nothing to worry about here.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/21/utah-health-officials/


----------



## Vanilla

Here come the zombies!!!!


----------



## backcountry

I'd take my chances against zombies with heart defects. Might make it past Season 3 if that was the case.

I think I'd be leaving New York if they start claiming chloroquine cures cancer though. I don't want to end up like Will Smith.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Anti-malaria drugs have been around for decades. Been on them myself for about a month when I was in my early 20's.. The ones I took came in a two part pill series. If I remember correctly, I took the first set during the first two weeks of deployment,and the second set the following two weeks. I'll bet dollars to donuts they were some chloroquine derivative. I'm 45 now, and still alive and kicking.


So personally, I see no harm in using them if there's a chance it will take the edge off the chinese kung flu.


Now, if you want to see an upset on drugs, you should have seen the anthrax vaccinations that were mandated in the late 90's. Some people got out of the military over that one. So Anti malaria drugs are the least of concern.


I used to joke I was a human pin cushin. The amount of shots I received in the military would make your head spin. Everything from Japanese B influenza, to that golf ball sized lump of molasses hemoglobin shot in my right ass cheek that made me bleed for a freaking week. No joke. Yellow fever, typhoid, you name it.


Crying about malaria drugs is hilarious to me.


----------



## caddis8

Was that the gamagubulin shot? That thing was horrible.


----------



## backcountry

Not crying myself. The only post I've made about it is the state getting in bed with a hoarder when pharmacies have plenty as is. That seems like cronyism, plain and simple. There is currently zero reason for the state to buy his 100,000+ doses. 

I also think the POTUS politicized it in a dangerous way. The combination he is recommending actually has evidence of significant enough danger that NIH has made a formal statement against it's use as treatment. There is a reason presidents and politicians normally wait for scientific testing. 

Off label use of Rx isn't new. But it's normally done by experts and medical professionals who are actually scientific literate. A doctor, that understands the evidence and risks, consulting their patient is one thing. That's not what has gone down with chloroquine derivatives and combinations. The way many people are pushing it is borderline quackery and is worthy of condemnation. Especially when it involves profiteering off tax payer dollars.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

caddis8 said:


> Was that the gamagubulin shot? That thing was horrible.


I forget. Did it start with an H, or a G? All I remember is going to the "Flight surgeon" (as I was in the chairforce), bending over a gurney, dropping trousers, and an officer asking me what cheek I wanted it in. Afterwords, I didn't sit without lifting that cheek up, for a week. Hurt like an SOB going in, and afterwards. I also remember sitting next to a bunch of NCO's who just had the same shot, all of them lifting a butt cheek. Good times. LOL


----------



## caddis8

Lone_Hunter said:


> I forget. Did it start with an H, or a G? All I remember is going to the "Flight surgeon" (as I was in the chairforce), bending over a gurney, dropping trousers, and an officer asking me what cheek I wanted it in. Afterwords, I didn't sit without lifting that cheek up, for a week. Hurt like an SOB going in, and afterwards. I also remember sitting next to a bunch of NCO's who just had the same shot, all of them lifting a butt cheek. Good times. LOL


Yup, that's it. I think it is called bacillin. There's another one that was really painful if you were going overseas for crazy infections. I don't remember what that was, but it hurt.

I had one about 14 years ago for crazy migraines called demerol. Shot it in my butt and I said "Ouch that feels like peanut butter." Then it was lights out. Slept 20 of 24 hours on my anniversary. Happy anniversary honey.


----------



## backcountry

Demerol is a lovely drug. Went into the ER for a rebound headache from a spinal tap and never made it to 3 count. 

Glad to live in the era we do medicine wise. I don't need pain killers much for my migraines (anymore) but I use to get nummular headaches. Had them for about 2 weeks each night from 9 pm until I would pass out in the fetal position from pain around 4 am. Only one Rx narcotic helped. Haven't needed it in years but I never travel without it given how indelible the memory of that pain remains.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Not crying myself. The only post I've made about it is the state getting in bed with a hoarder when pharmacies have plenty as is.


I know people who work in and own pharmacies.

They were completely out of this drug the week Trump talked about it. They were actually out before his press conference, because other countries were pushing it and US doctors caught on.

Many haven't been restocked, because the supply chain was disrupted by governments. They also didn't stock massive amounts of it before which allowed it to go faster.

So I am going to disagree here. At least as a general statement. Maybe some pharmacies are stocked up, but I personally know a few that have been for a month now.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Not crying myself. The only post I've made about it is the state getting in bed with a hoarder when pharmacies have plenty as is.
> 
> 
> 
> I know people who work in and own pharmacies.
> 
> They were completely out of this drug the week Trump talked about it. They were actually out before his press conference, because other countries were pushing it and US doctors caught on.
> 
> Many haven't been restocked, because the supply chain was disrupted by governments. They also didn't stock massive amounts of it before which allowed it to go faster.
> 
> So I am going to disagree here. At least as a general statement. Maybe some pharmacies are stocked up, but I personally know a few that have been for a month now.
Click to expand...

Article states differently though I have no doubt some places don't keep it on hand. I don't like Vickers but he is a pharmacist and understands the supply.

If only a private pharmaceutical business in Utah had hundreds of thousands of doses the local pharmacies could buy directly from? Huh.

Sorry, not sorry. The state shouldn't be buying up a drug with no scientific evidence of effective treatment simply because politicians are pushing it and a private hoarder has a direct line to our legislature. There is good reason to believe this is textbook cronyism and profiteering.

Let people have access to off label drugs with a doctor's prescription. But don't use tax payers dollars to bankroll profiteers.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> But don't use tax payers dollars to bankroll profiteers.


I don't disagree with this at all, or the bulk of what you said.

I was only pointing out that doctors prescribed themselves, their friends, and family this in bulk when they heard about it... coupled with the fed government disrupting the supply chain and it not being a high stocked drug before has led to many being out.

That certainly doesn't mean the solution is to do what politicians always do - make a terrible deal with friends.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> But don't use tax payers dollars to bankroll profiteers.
> 
> 
> 
> I don't disagree with this at all, or the bulk of what you said.
> 
> I was only pointing out that doctors prescribed themselves, their friends, and family this in bulk when they heard about it... coupled with the fed government disrupting the supply chain and it not being a high stocked drug before has led to many being out.
> 
> That certainly doesn't mean the solution is to do what politicians always do - make a terrible deal with friends.
Click to expand...

Agreed. And I can imagine the feds starting to stockpile it last month affected supply. There has been a lot of unusual competition for supplies the last few weeks.

Hadn't heard doctors were writing scripts so freely to friends/family. Not sure what to think about that but it doesn't matter sense it's over and done with.

Will be interesting to see what the scientific studies discover. Would be great if an existing, cheap drug helped.


----------



## backcountry

Talking about studies....

Anybody see the clip floating around of the Las Vegas mayor stating she offered her city up as a "control group" (she said it multiple times so it's definitely not cherry picked). I get people are debating what the next step is but that's more than a few steps further. 

The crazy train is getting full. I've never understood how so many politicians have such a lack of self preservation that allows them to say such things.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Going back to the thread title....
Yup, I'm still worried, but I'm not sure which worries me more. The Chinese Kung Flu, or Economic Collapse? If I was to rate my concern on a 10 scale, it is somewhere around 8. If I was to break that down, I think it's either a 4 to 4 split, or a 5 to 3 split in favor of the economy.

Up until the oil crash, I was confident things would eventually go back to , or close to normal. With each passing day, my confidence in that is slowly diminishing. That said, we still have an income, and paying the bills like normal, and we have no trouble getting most of what we need at the store, but for how long is anyone's guess. With unemployment going up, it's only a matter of time before it hits us too.

Not to completely jump on the freak out train, but the other day I had myself a white russian, and a shot of Glenfiddich, and sat down and watched this video below on DVD. (I was bored and went digging through the "grown up" section in the move cabinet ) I find some entertainment value in past guesses as to what could happen in the future, and how close, or far off they are.

In the below DocuDrama, they got the timing all wrong, and how serious the pandemic is. Things have been going much more slowly then they depict, and the COVID-19 virus is far less lethal then they imagined. However, who knows what's going to happen if the economy collapses. Is it going to be utter chaos and a break down of rule of law, or The great Depression 2.0 ? I used to laugh at "Doomsday preppers", but I have to admit, I think this is the closest we've ever come to any hypothetical situation that anyone wearing a tin foil hat, has ever dreamed up.

Probably not good for ones mental health watching this. 





I've been pretty hunkered down since the early March, before the stay at home order was even given. I've been "ahead of the curve" on many things. The rush on costco and grocery stores? I did mine the week before everyone else. I texted my folks and told them to get their stuff "now while you can". I knew in my gut things were about to come flying off the shelves. I like to think i've a knack for predicting what people are about to do. I was ahead of the curve on the rush on the gunstores after sandy hook too. Got my wifes AR, the day after, cause I knew in my gut what was coming.

It's not hard to predict if you watch the news close enough. I can only monitor it for so much before I have to stick my head in the sand for a day or two for mental hygiene.

Hopefully things bounce back soon. I haven't been watching lately.


----------



## backcountry

Today's numbers coupled with the entire week expose we are not off the curve yet.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

I don't know about up north but down here the gyms reopened last week. We've gone for 2 walks this week and only about 10-20% of people are wearing masks. I think the behavior the last 2 weeks is going to bite us hard.

I think it would be foolish to stagger reopening on May 1 given the long term trend. One of the reasons I think setting an arbitrary date like that is problematic is I think if the state delays it now people will be pissed.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> I don't know about up north but down here the gyms reopened last week. We've gone for 2 walks this week and only about 10-20% of people are wearing masks. I think the behavior the last 2 weeks is going to bite us hard.


Gyms? Of all the things to reopen, a gym is one of the worst things possible. Great place to catch MRSA, let alone the kung flu. MRSA... been there, done that, had my veins burned with vancomycin and a new IV every day, for two freaking weeks. I know I didn't catch MRSA at a gym, but I do know it can be found in gyms. Which makes gyms in my mind, really bad mojo.

If walking around the neighborhood, I can see not wearing a mask. You can just walk across the street, no big deal. Going into a store though, is a w hole different thing. Unfortunately my truck battery died a couple days ago. Can't order one online. So now I have to go into a store. Not looking forward to it. I've avoided going into a store since early march, surgical masks and gloves... yeah i'll have them on. Hell, Ill close the garage door, strip off my clothes and go straight into the shower when i get home too.


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## Packout

They say there will be another wave in the Fall. Should we all just stay home until then? 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/ 
Some people are living thru the ever changing restrictions and recommendations. Other people are just trying to live.

88% of intubated patients in NY died. 98% age 65+ who were intubated died!!!!!! 
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86101

I know a local family caring for an elderly parent with health issues who refuse to take the parent out to enjoy the sunshine and a drive- because the parent might get Covid. They think they should keep them locked in the house so they can die there of non-covid related disease/age. I'd kick my kid square in the butt if I was the parent. I'm believing people are nuts on both far ends of their reactions!

.


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## DallanC

In the U.S. every year is 6 million people are killed in automobile accidents. More than 90 people die in car accidents everyday. 3 million people in the U.S. are injured every year in car accidents. Around 2 million drivers in car accidents experience permanent injuries every year. 

Drivers age 80 and older have the highest rates of driver deaths, therefore we should ban all cars.

-DallanC


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## CPAjeff

^^^^^ x 100,000,000,000,000,000,000

Alcohol kills about 88k every year - could you imagine the sheer uproar if the US stopped to battle alcohol deaths. The state of Utah has seen an uptick in alcohol sales due to COVID-19. 

Maybe we should just completely stop living.


----------



## DallanC

The CDC has been playing with the numbers themselves, leaving WIDE interpretation on defining "cause of death". On their own website:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf


> In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID-19 cannot
> be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances
> are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it
> is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as
> "probable" or "presumed." In these instances, certifiers should
> use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID-19
> infection was likely. However, please note that testing for
> COVID-19 should be conducted whenever possible.


So, without proof, Covid19 can be listed as cause of death. How many times is this guess right or wrong? Was it Covid19 or just the normal Influenza? Who knows... they aren't required to be accurate apparently.

In more important news, did anyone catch the University of Southern California's new study on antibodies from Covid 19?

This sums it up:



> https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/
> 
> Based on testing results from 863 adults, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has an antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for the statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has an antibody to the virus - which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have been infected. *That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 *reported to the county at the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.


*Sooo in other words the rate of dying to covid19 can be as much as 55 times LESS than previously estimated.*

Also, researchers have been studying people who died prior to the first known covid19 death rate, and testing corpses, have found at least two people who sadly passed away to Covid19 IN THE USA in the early part of February. Well before the initial published dates.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html

-DallanC


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## Lone_Hunter

My thing is my wife is in an at risk category. Asthma and COPD. Not a great combo. If I brought home the kung flu and got her sick, and she ended up in the hospital on a ventilator, I would never forgive myself. If she died, not only would I never forgive myself, but I'm not sure how I'd raise and support our 6 year old daughter on my own. 



If it were not for that, I wouldn't be giving this virus as much attention as I have been.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> My thing is my wife is in an at risk category. Asthma and COPD. Not a great combo. If I brought home the kung flu and got her sick, and she ended up in the hospital on a ventilator, I would never forgive myself. If she died, not only would I never forgive myself, but I'm not sure how I'd raise and support our 6 year old daughter on my own.
> 
> If it were not for that, I wouldn't be giving this virus as much attention as I have been.


Completely understandable, and its great you are taking necessary steps to prevent that. I hope the best for you all.

PS: They've recently found "at risk" patients should lay on their stomach vs back and it dramatically lowers the complication rate as the lungs are able to open easier.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> In the U.S. every year is 6 million people are killed in automobile accidents. More than 90 people die in car accidents everyday. 3 million people in the U.S. are injured every year in car accidents. Around 2 million drivers in car accidents experience permanent injuries every year.
> 
> Drivers age 80 and older have the highest rates of driver deaths, therefore we should ban all cars.
> 
> -DallanC


Where are you getting those statistics? They don't even add up amongst each other. Was that a copy and paste from a chain mail or meme?

We peaked in automobile deaths per year in the 70s because we took aggressive action as a nation. Some of which infringed on what people considered personal liberty, like seat belt enforcement.

Best information I can find is that around 35k people die a year in automobile accidents, not 6 million. If so, we have surpassed that in less than 6 weeks of Covid-19. That means roughly 100 in 1 million citizens die from accidents in the US a year; Covid-19 is currently claiming 144 in 1 million citizens in 1/6th the timeframe.

We are still experiencing more than 2000 Americans die per day from Covid-19. Yesterday was 2341 or roughly 25 times the amount of Americans that die on average in a day from automobile accidents.

Comparing this to non-infectious causes of death is not accurate. Especially when we are losing so many people a day even with serious attempts at mitigation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year


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## backcountry

DallanC said:


> The CDC has been playing with the numbers themselves, leaving WIDE interpretation on defining "cause of death". On their own website:
> 
> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
> 
> So, without proof, Covid19 can be listed as cause of death. How many times is this guess right or wrong? Was it Covid19 or just the normal Influenza? Who knows... they aren't required to be accurate apparently.
> 
> In more important news, did anyone catch the University of Southern California's new study on antibodies from Covid 19?
> 
> This sums it up:
> 
> *Sooo in other words the rate of dying to covid19 can be as much as 55 times LESS than previously estimated.*
> 
> Also, researchers have been studying people who died prior to the first known covid19 death rate, and testing corpses, have found at least two people who sadly passed away to Covid19 IN THE USA in the early part of February. Well before the initial published dates.
> 
> https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html
> 
> -DallanC


Those are the new parameters that started being implemented recently by a handful of states, under the guidance of the CDC. I think NY and others started including probable numbers last week.

Its not an unusual approach at all. Many types of deaths can be reported as presumed or probable, including annual influenza deaths. As such, the deaths are initially reported as probable until a test is conducted (and it needs to be conducted to be listed as such, if I'm reading reports correctly). Tests take days (or more) while fatalities are reported daily. Not to mention, cause of death almost always requires expert opinion not exact proof, as we don't normally invest that level of investigation into most deaths.

And no, Covid-19 is not likely 55 times less lethal than initial reports. I have seen estimated fatality rates decline since February but by magnitudes closer to 5-10, not 55 times. Last estimates I saw were CFRs between 0.5-1.0 (initial were 3-5%). Estimates in March were already declining to 1-2% depending on data and location. But remember, that is with much of the world taking unprecedented measures as CFR is completely affected by mitigation. If we had "let the chips fall" or let it burn through populations the CFR would be higher and drastically if it overwhelmed hospitals (see NY for borderline example and Italy for a better proximate).

CFR will still take a while to understand as right now only those deaths happening in hospitals are accurately reported. We will still have to research how many deaths at home could be linked to Covid-19 infections. And that won't be an easy chore as thousands of people skipped doctors appointments and hospital visits for other issues while we mitigated its spread. But the CDC and other organizations will ultimately run statistical estimates like they do for influenza each year (ie the figures often used inappropriately to compare confirmed/actual Covid-19 deaths).

Flattening the curve inherently changes the outcomes, that is the point. A month ago it was already mentioned that ultimately these measures would lead to us thinking we over-reacted. This isn't as bad as many feared in February but its also already worse than much of what people are comparing it to. And that is just with current information and we aren't even out of the first wave yet.


----------



## Jedidiah

I'm glad we live in a country with leaders that are at least smart enough to have contained this well enough that guys can throw around numbers like 55 times less lethal than previously thought due to their lack of personal contact with the problem.

You are currently living through the most historically significant event that most people alive today will experience. Even if this only does its bad work through this spring season this could be the most significant event since WWII. With some very good luck it won't be as bad as the Spanish flu. With some bad luck (and bad policies), they'll be covering it in textbooks 1000 years from now without even mentioning the Spanish Flu.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

2.7 million cases, 190k deaths, just so you're operating on what's considered to be facts here.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Completely understandable, and its great you are taking necessary steps to prevent that. I hope the best for you all.
> 
> PS: They've recently found "at risk" patients should lay on their stomach vs back and it dramatically lowers the complication rate as the lungs are able to open easier.
> 
> -DallanC


Thanks. Yeah I just saw mention of that in this video I just watched. This guy seems to be on the front lines. Apparently, according to him, if you end up on a ventilator, your chances are not good at all. Oh and apparently, we men are more apt to be stricken by disease because women have a stronger immune system in general. I guess it goes back to the chromosomes. Show that to your wife, next time she gives you crap about being a big baby when sick. Women seem to like to complain about their men when they are sick.


----------



## backcountry

CPAjeff said:


> ^^^^^ x 100,000,000,000,000,000,000
> 
> Alcohol kills about 88k every year - could you imagine the sheer uproar if the US stopped to battle alcohol deaths. The state of Utah has seen an uptick in alcohol sales due to COVID-19.
> 
> Maybe we should just completely stop living.


It's an interesting take given you said you'd take back your stance if Covid-19 turned into more than what you called a "scare", ie "more than 25,000 deaths in 2020". The US alone will have doubled that threshold within a few hours from now.

But I guess twice as bad as your original threshold still isn't bad enough, huh?

We already blew by the 2018-19 CDC estimated 34k deaths from seasonal influenza. And that count runs from October until April (4th, this year). Covid-19 has claimed just shy of 50k individuals since early February. And that takes into the account of the newly confirm deaths and some of the most serious mitigation measures employed since Polio.

PS...the 88k alcohol related deaths come from meta-analysis of various databases. Those also aren't confirmed causes. Confirmed cases appear to be closer to 30k a year when you combine hospital codes directly related to alcohol and DUI deaths (average about 10k year). And we spend billions and implement tons of policy to reduce that number each year.


----------



## middlefork

Maybe when the population quits expanding at a bigger rate than they are dying we will be making some progress.


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## CPAjeff

BC - you are correct, I did say I’d change my stance. I’ve upgrade COVID-19 from a “scare” to a “minor scare.”

What’s your address? I’ll send you some more tin foil.


----------



## backcountry

CPAjeff said:


> BC - you are correct, I did say I'd change my stance. I've upgrade COVID-19 from a "scare" to a "minor scare."
> 
> What's your address? I'll send you some more tin foil.


Cute retort but moving goalposts is a game of intellectual cowardice. And next time you might want to source your data before posting such bogus comparisons.

There is something fundamentally immoral and dishonest about the label "minor scare" regarding this pandemic. I hope you don't learn first or second hand how serious it truly is (two people in our extended community have died now, neither of them with underlying conditions and one a perfectly healthy child). But you seem to have conflated similar remarks as issues of popularity in the past, so I don't hold much hope for that carrying much meaning.

I'm sure the families of the 50,000 fellow Americans that have died in the last 6 weeks (bulk of them after mid-March) would love you to explain that one to them.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Today's numbers coupled with the entire week expose we are not off the curve yet.
> 
> https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/
> 
> I don't know about up north but down here the gyms reopened last week. We've gone for 2 walks this week and only about 10-20% of people are wearing masks. I think the behavior the last 2 weeks is going to bite us hard.
> 
> I think it would be foolish to stagger reopening on May 1 given the long term trend. One of the reasons I think setting an arbitrary date like that is problematic is I think if the state delays it now people will be pissed.


What numbers today and this week specifically are so troubling?

One thing I've noticed is you really need to wait 5 days to get the "real" numbers for today. Write down today's numbers, go back in a week and compare. I've been doing it, it's been interesting.

But again, what are the bad numbers you're seeing?


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## backcountry

Still high. 155 positive today. We haven't tapered off yet. It's been a steady level for ten days. If anything it's got a subtle climb as a trend line again but not something with much statistical confidence. 

And SW Utah saw 6 new cases today which is roughly an 8% increase from the day(s) before. Difficult to draw big conclusions from such few cases but it's not encouraging. Dixie added a second "blue tent" late last week; could just be an over abundance of caution (or use it or lose it funds) but I'm skeptical to believe SW Utah is over the curve yet.

I would think a steady decline for 10-14 days would be in order before instituting meaningful reopenings. At least that's what I thought I had been reading as a generic recommendation.


----------



## backcountry

IMHE's model, which seems to track us pretty well actually, has moved the peak date to May 1st. And if I remember the numbers you posted last time they have increased as well. Not drastic increases but still meaningful especially given we had initially decreased those totals and shortened the peak date. 

If we are projected to peak around May 1 how would that be a good date to begin "reopening"?


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Still high. 155 positive today. We haven't tapered off yet. It's been a steady level for ten days. If anything it's got a subtle climb as a trend line again but not something with much statistical confidence.
> 
> And SW Utah saw 6 new cases today which is roughly an 8% increase from the day(s) before. Difficult to draw big conclusions from such few cases but it's not encouraging. Dixie added a second "blue tent" late last week; could just be an over abundance of caution (or use it or lose it funds) but I'm skeptical to believe SW Utah is over the curve yet.
> 
> I would think a steady decline for 10-14 days would be in order before instituting meaningful reopenings. At least that's what I thought I had been reading as a generic recommendation.


I'm not saying that we are finished with anything here, but if we get 155 positives out of 3,000+ tests, that is not the same as 150 positives out of 2,000 tests. Testing has increased dramatically the last week. But our numbers have not shot up at the same rate. Rates are way more important than totals if you're looking for the accurate "curve." Go back and look at the positive test rates. They are down this week based upon what I looked at this morning.

And remember, the Washington numbers are peak resource allocation, not peak numbers in general. If the peak resource allocation is May 1, most of those people using the ICU beds and/or vents on May 1 are almost assuredly already infected as I type this. If not, I'm the next few days.

Final thought: I don't think the Governor has said things are opening on May 1. If he has, I missed that, which is entirely possible. His current order only extends to May 1, but that doesn't mean the world will reopen May 1. I realize it's a scary premise to think we are going to do some things again before this virus is eradicated, but that has to happen. It simply has to happen. We can't wait until July (or April next year) to start functioning again. I realize there are some saying just go back to normal and let the cards fall where they will. But that is not going to happen here. It will be tiered, measured, and based upon what has happened thus far in Utah on the state level, likely appropriate response. I think our leaders here have earned some benefit of the doubt on this one, personally. There are consequences no matter what decision is made. Erring on one side entirely without thought and consideration for the other (IE- continued shutdown for public safety vs total reopening without restriction) would be completely irresponsible for a leader to do. Utah has thus far been very successful in its response, even though there has been vocal criticism we didn't go far enough. You think about the dynamics here if travelers coming and going through a major hub in SLC, bringing back thousands of people from all around the globe, including from some hot zones, and we aren't seeing the spread others have seen. What we've done has worked so far about as well as we could have ever hoped. But there will come a time when Utah's world needs to start turning in some ways again, and that time will be soon. May 1? Maybe. It's not arbitrary in the sense that May 1 is the date the current order is set to expire. You could extend the current order, but that may not be needed. And is extending the current order one more week any less arbitrary?


----------



## backcountry

I think we agree on a lot. That said...

The May 1st extension was arbitrary to begin with and remains that way. He hasn't set an exact deadline but continues to reference May 1 instead of referencing back to benchmarks. 

I disagree on percent of testing being the key element. It's hard to compare data from 6 weeks ago to today because the testing standards have changed multiple times. But we do know that if the total number of people a day that test positive is stable or continues to increase than social distancing is a benefit. Those people served as a reservoir for the 5 + days (average) of being asymptomatic. When we see a downward trend in the total number of positives, sustained over a week or more, than we can start to consider the disease is decreasing in spread. Two weeks provides more confidence. Right now we aren't seeing frightening growth but we are also rather stationary along the top, according to data. 

I am all for a staged reopening. But it needs to be based on the data not arbitrary dates set in political documents. I understand the economic harm but if we reopen without a sustained downward trend in confirmed infections than we unduly increase the risk of another wave or spike. Which likely means another round of restrictions, voluntary or mandated for broad swaths of the state.

And yes, the IMHE model is about peak resource use and peak daily deaths. But the trend matters. It's extended and grown. That's not a good sign that the current measures should be loosened. I'm not calling for increased restrictions nor do I believe we should wait so far into the curve to "reopen" like IMHE cites (late June?). But I think reopening while we are still at the top of the curve/plateau is counterproductive. We might be at the back end of the curve but only more time and testing will reveal that.

Now....if we could mass test for antibodies than we could more confidently open up, as we'd actually have a more accurate picture of likely immunity. But we don't have that option yet so we are stuck with the imperfect analysis of confirmed Covid-19 infections from nasal swabs. 

Another variable is the new app released under beta. It's got Bluetooth and location tracking capabilities for 30 days from users. That could change the parameters of all of this and expedite contact tracing; if that is broadly adopted and can pinpoint potential contacts that is a game changer for social and business reopenings. But are most people using it with tracking settings wide open? If not then it reduces it's potential impact. I'm just not sure Utah is going to be the state that voluntarily adopts such digitally intrusive technology. But I could be wrong. 

PS... I'm willing to appreciate the efforts of the state but they need to show me more data that shows downward infection trends before I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt on opening up. To be fair, they've communicated well and tried to plan. So far we've faired very well with fatalities. And I'll applaud that effort if its maintained.


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## Lone_Hunter

I have no idea why, but I just decided to respond to this living vs alive thing as floated by packout.

From the oil thread



Packout said:


> Some people will do anything to stay alive, while others are willing to do anything to live. Two different types of mindsets.


from this thread



Packout said:


> Some people are living thru the ever changing restrictions and recommendations. Other people are just trying to live.


Are we talking about alive vs thrive? Or just peoples mental attitude while under stress?

I'm no psychiatrist, but it's been my experience that people respond to "things" differently. Two different guys can go through the same crap on deployment, but one might handle things differently then the other. Some might crack, while others, excrement rolls off their back like a duck in water. Everyone has their breaking points. For some, it's sooner then others, and for others still, being the duck in water is something they have to learn.

Personally, I find that during a ****storm, survive vs thrive, is irrelevant. It isn't a competition. You either make it, or you don't. When lives are involved, there are no second chances, no do overs. On that note, it may take a decade or longer to flush your headgear after the fact , and if you don't cope well at the time the crap is coming down, your going to rub people the wrong way.

Speaking just for myself, I have learned that I cope through crap, by focusing on the here and now. I don't worry about tomorrow, the maybe's and the someday's. All that matters is today. Tomorrow is another day. One day at a time. Don't bother me with tomorrows crap, I've no time for it right now. I've also learned what compartmentalization is, and that I personally am VERY good at it.

One thing that I have observed, and this is just my personal opinion, but people who complain trivial things, are people whos life is actually going really well. What are trivial things? The first thing that comes to my mind CONUS is whiney people complaining about gender identification on bathrooms. Give me a freaking break. Political stab? YUP, but seriously, if your biggest concern is about what bathroom a biologically confused person can use , then your life is doing REALLY WELL. Strip away the niceties, and people start to focus on their more immediate needs to stay alive. It's human nature. Things that once seem important will become frivolous. I can honestly say that at one point in my life, I genuinely forgot what day Christmas was, and I honestly could not even remember my own birthday.... because that crap just DID NOT MATTER anymore. I had more important things to deal with.

If being a survivor is worse then being alive.. whatever. I'll wear the survivor brand with pride. I've got a few T shirts tucked away. Adversity tempers the soul, and quiting is almost never an option.


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## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> I'm not saying that we are finished with anything here, but if we get 155 positives out of 3,000+ tests, that is not the same as 150 positives out of 2,000 tests. Testing has increased dramatically the last week. But our numbers have not shot up at the same rate. Rates are way more important than totals if you're looking for the accurate "curve." Go back and look at the positive test rates. They are down this week based upon what I looked at this morning.


Just a couple of "housekeeping" notes. We have been testing over *4000* on many of these days and our total positive rate has slipped to 4.5 %, per the state epidemiologist. The above is exactly right. A doubling of testing without a doubling of cases is a positive.

Next, it should be noted that we have seen some "clustering" as well. There were 96 from a homeless shelter and 20-30 in a county jail. While these people certainly "count" as both cases and as individual beings worth protecting, they also are somewhat special cases that notably inflate the numbers overall. For interpretative purposes for the general statistics, there are fewer folks getting covid from the lines at Costco or Home Depot than it may appear.

Lastly, as this proceeds, we will learn how to reopen things more safely and can intelligently get the economy geared up more. We have already seen this in our field. While I too am leery of a reopening "free-for-all" like we are seeing in some areas, I do believe that we will be able to open up more service safely, especially if we use common sense and science in the process.

I still believe our state deserves high marks in these areas.


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## backcountry

Definitely all for the staggered reopening. I think it was smart of the state to allow certain elective surgeries again since hospitals are currently coping just fine in Utah. 

If the early reports hold true, then we can also expect the virus to tamp down more during the summer given the newly studied role of heat and humidity. We had probable reason to guess that but now it seems to be confirmed by studies. That will be a huge asset for opening up more of society.

I definitely see the increased testing and low fatality rates as positives. My principle concern is the total number of cases is the biggest implication. The jail cluster was likely isolated well enough assuming staff were socially isolating on off hours. The homeless shelter doesn't help as they often disperse into the community during the day so that seems less likely to have been mitigated. That to me is actually a troubling cluster. 

When total infection numbers decline as a trend for a week or more I'll give more credence to broader openings, like gyms and restaurants. Percentages don't infect people hence focus on the total number of confirmed infections that acted as potential routes of transmission before being tested. I bring it up consistently as there are more than minor rumblings in my area. Several businesses have listed May 1st on their feeds. I think the state did a poor job at setting up people to be flexible with that timeframe. I don't think they emphasized data benchmarks enough to such citizens and business owners and I think it's going to come back to bite us. 

Time will tell.


----------



## Jedidiah

Why not just let the people who want to do away with all the restrictions self-declare? You have to tell your health insurance company and pledge not to go to a hospital if you get sick. I'll wear a mask so you can tell I don't want you near me. You can wear something to identify yourself too, maybe a tall pointed cone on your head.


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## Vanilla

I admit that epidemiology is not my expertise, and never will be, but I strongly disagree that the most important factor to determining the trend is total number of cases. 

That makes zero logical sense to me. If you want to know the trend, you have to look at the rates. Total cases is completely misleading under the circumstances because of how testing has progressed. Total cases is just a number, it's kind of meaningless. 

In my non-expert opinion.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> I admit that epidemiology is not my expertise, and never will be, but I strongly disagree that the most important factor to determining the trend is total number of cases.
> 
> That makes zero logical sense to me. If you want to know the trend, you have to look at the rates. Total cases is completely misleading under the circumstances because of how testing has progressed. Total cases is just a number, it's kind of meaningless.
> 
> In my non-expert opinion.


Anything but meaningless. To clarify, I'm not talking about running totals but daily totals of confirmed positives. It's not just a number. It's actual individuals in our state who were undetected carriers for 5+ days. They are the actual individuals that matter for spreading the disease. They are the vector and reservoir. Until that number decreases over time the virus is still surviving, ie we are at the top or plateau of the curve.

The percentage of positives (per total tests) is also critical and we are fairing well. That number is key for epidemiologist to model spread and fatality rates. The problem is there has been zero consistency in finding those numbers. Availability of testing was initially unstable and then testing protocol changed so we don't have clean, consistent analysis of those trends over time. They are doing their best but it's still an inherently flawed number.

Everything in these models and data sets have assumptions built in. As a citizen the total numbers of daily positives matters to me because that is a reflection of who was out in society potentially spreading the disease. That especially matters in my area as we've stayed low until a recent, noticeable spike. We simply don't know if that spike was from looser testing protocol (more tests available) or an actual increase in the diseases spread. There are legitimate educated guesses for both. Because of the initial mistakes and inherent limitations of testing during a pandemic the other numbers aren't as important for me as a citizen.

If you look back at my original post you recently responded to you'll notice it was pretty hedged. I am simply not optimistic or confident opening up our state in a week is prudent. If those numbers start to decrease over weekly trends than we have a different story. But right now the virus is still hanging on in a stable fashion.


----------



## 2full

So now Utah jumped up to 170 cases today. 
What do u guys think about that ?
People are relaxing already, and places are opening back up. It's already showing in the numbers.


----------



## backcountry

2Full,

Were did you find the 170 cases today (ie yesterdays)? I ask as my browser only updates the Utah site to 152 positives.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

*Never mind, that is a day over day difference from the original release from Thursday. Found it in an article.


----------



## Catherder

2full said:


> So now Utah jumped up to 170 cases today.
> What do u guys think about that ?
> People are relaxing already, and places are opening back up. It's already showing in the numbers.


Meh, Dr. Dunn said they did nearly 4100 tests yesterday too (in this reporting period). It is in line with the numbers for the entire week, accounting for statistical variation/range. Sure, we'd like to see better but we are still at the plateau we have been on for about a week.


----------



## 2full

They had the count on the KSL news website. 

I personally want to at least see the % of cases going quite a bit down before opening every thing back up. But I am more into the higher risk area (in my 60's and had chemo in January). And I Work in an "essential" business so I have to be around 2K+ customers a week. Which by the way........
I have had more ignorant, mean, rude, and arrogant customers in the last 4 weeks than the previous 9 years combined. People really seem to be on edge. 
I never dreamed my area of business would be a panic situation :shock:

So maybe I am a bit of a worry wart. :mrgreen:


----------



## backcountry

More evidence of potential cronyism happening in regards to chloroquine and state activity:

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/04/24/utah-adds/


----------



## middlefork

So I *had* to go to the hardware store today to get the sprinkler system going to keep the socially acceptable and city mandated lawn green.

I was impressed that everybody seemed to be maintaining the 6' distance. Sure there were a few people wearing their masks and glaring at those of us that were not but for the most part everybody was getting along.

I did find it was not socially acceptable to use cash. They would much rather have your identity stolen using a credit card.Like any of them can guarantee it won't be.


----------



## backcountry

You at least injected your daily disinfectant, correct? How else do you "cleanse"? 😁


----------



## backcountry

backcountry said:


> More evidence of potential cronyism happening in regards to chloroquine and state activity:
> 
> https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/04/24/utah-adds/


Sounds like Herbert ordered an end to the nonsense and an investigation into how it got so far. Good on him (and Harrison). Hopefully we can get the $800k back someone in the state already spent on what appears to be snake oil, in regards to Covid-19.

https://www.fox13now.com/news/coron...-review-of-utahs-hydroxychloroquine-stockpile


----------



## Jedidiah

Anybody else find it weird that the guys with all the conspiracy theories are the ones AGAINST the quarantine? Shouldn't the paranoid be worried the virus is some kind of mind control trick to get you to vote for the other guy? I figured you guys would be getting on the HAM radio to warn your Martian friends about it or something.


----------



## Jedidiah

So just yesterday 1959 deaths in the US, 6182 worldwide. In one day. And the response is to put the guy talking about it on ignore and go make threads complaining about how wildlife studies aren't going to happen. I'm glad I stuck with this site long enough to watch most the guys who I've made judgments on make choices that fit my concept of them though.


----------



## Packout

So I Didn't take Epidemiology, but it is just plain weird to me how some people brush over the facts of ratios and how they pertain to a curve. My college Stats professor would be disappointed.

A post made earlier about that percentages of deaths from covid 19 infection was very interesting. Some of you blew right past it- but it was the most important part of the equation as Covid death rates appear to be much lower than previously reported. 

New York City has a random sample which shows that 20% of the population may have been infected. 20% of New York City's population is close to 2 million people. There have been 11,500 deaths in NYC. That equates to a death rate of .005 Or in other words- if 200 people get infected then 1 dies. Here is the sticking point- many of the deaths are extreme risk patients- not the 40 year old with asthma (although still concerning) but 85 year old Alzheimer patients or 74 year old diabetics or 65 year old smoker with damaged lungs. That possible death rate is 1000% less than previously suspected. (FYI- as of today there are less than 3 million cases confirmed, yet NY's data shows there could have been 2 million in their city alone)

No one wants anyone to die. Death is part of the life cycle. The collateral damage taken on everyone is concerning to me. And no, I'm not storming the capital, but I'd advise anyone to take Backcountry's ever evolving posts with a grain of salt. 

.


----------



## backcountry

Packout said:


> So I Didn't take Epidemiology, but it is just plain weird to me how some people brush over the facts of ratios and how they pertain to a curve. My college Stats professor would be disappointed.
> 
> A post made earlier about that percentages of deaths from covid 19 infection was very interesting. Some of you blew right past it- but it was the most important part of the equation as Covid death rates appear to be much lower than previously reported.
> 
> New York City has a random sample which shows that 20% of the population may have been infected. 20% of New York City's population is close to 2 million people. There have been 11,500 deaths in NYC. That equates to a death rate of .005 Or in other words- if 200 people get infected then 1 dies. Here is the sticking point- many of the deaths are extreme risk patients- not the 40 year old with asthma (although still concerning) but 85 year old Alzheimer patients or 74 year old diabetics or 65 year old smoker with damaged lungs. That possible death rate is 1000% less than previously suspected. (FYI- as of today there are less than 3 million cases confirmed, yet NY's data shows there could have been 2 million in their city alone)
> 
> No one wants anyone to die. Death is part of the life cycle. The collateral damage taken on everyone is concerning to me. And no, I'm not storming the capital, but I'd advise anyone to take Backcountry's ever evolving posts with a grain of salt.
> 
> .


We don't know the exact CFR yet but none of the reliable science is aligning with your bogus view of 1000% less fatal. Estimates from colleges and institutes are changing but not to that degree. I believe Standford has the most conservative math right now, at a controversial 0.10%. Its getting immense criticism for it's assumptions. But that number is still 20 times larger than your BS spitball.

My stance hasn't evolved much since I admitted my confidence it wouldn't jump from China was misplaced. I'm anti-psuedoscience like you are pushing. I'm rather agnostic on what restrictions are best but willing to criticize failures (that pissed off one of the elks). I think it's a serious health risk that will be a defining moment for the world and generations. And I remain transparent about my personal choices and how how I'm uninspired by the conversation around "reopening".

I'm not brushing over any facts. Maybe you are conflating terms? The facts are: test confirmed positives and negatives; number of people hospitalized; number of confirmed fatalities; etc. Inferences are extrapolated from that data, but aren't fact. It's not a fact that 20% of the population is infected but it's a statistical inference. It's a helpful tool but not fact.

That's why I'm focused on daily totals of positives. Those are facts and real people roaming our state. The other statistics and percentages are helpful for trying to understand the pandemic locally but they are problematic enough (biases and inconsistencies from design) that as a citizen I'm unwilling to trust their conclusions enough this early in the event.

Packout, your responses are trash. They have been for a while. I'm not going to fake otherwise. Your stats professor would definitely be disappointed as so clearly biassing your statistical guesses is bad math and science.


----------



## brisket

Two California doctors make a great case for ending the lockdown:

Part 1:





Part 2:


----------



## backcountry

Here are some articles sampling the range of infection rates, the problems built into those studies, how difficult it is to model CFR in the middle of a pandemic, etc. You'll notice none of them support Packout's bogus claims. (If he took a science or statistic course I assume he's capable of understanding the blatant flaw in his equation.)

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...unt-coronavirus-infections-may-be-unreliable#

https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/04/24/study-challenges-reports-of-low-fatality-rate-for-covid-19/

https://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/...ld-higher-than-the-number-of-confirmed-cases/

The last one is a technical analysis of the Stanford study and calls into question the accuracy of their conclusion through statistical analysis of their methods. Pretty interesting as it finds the Standford data points closer to existing studies not bombshell infection rates.


----------



## Packout

backcountry said:


> We don't know the exact CFR yet but none of the reliable science is aligning with your bogus view of 1000% less fatal. Estimates from colleges and institutes are changing but not to that degree. I believe Standford has the most conservative math right now, at a controversial 0.10%. Its getting immense criticism for it's assumptions. But that number is still 20 times larger than your BS spitball.
> 
> The facts are: test confirmed positives and negatives; number of people hospitalized; number of confirmed fatalities; etc. Inferences are extrapolated from that data, but aren't fact. It's not a fact that 20% of the population is infected but it's a statistical inference. It's a helpful tool but not fact.
> Packout, your responses are trash. They have been for a while. I'm not going to fake otherwise. Your stats professor would definitely be disappointed as so clearly biassing your statistical guesses is bad math and science.


Come on Backcountry- feeling a little sensitive today, I see. All I said was take your posts with a grain of salt. Then you go on a personal attack. I never said to discount everything you were saying. I wouldn't mind if you asked others to take mine with a grain of salt. Sad state of affairs in our country.

And FYI- I said .005 -- which is actually .5% or 5 times MORE than the .1% you quoted from STANFORD. You see your error? You big enough to admit you are wrong? So I am actually closer to your "higher bogus" with my "bogus" number- which is higher than a number produced by STANFORD! (Who by the way have great statisticians, probably better than 2 guys posting on a hunting site.) Also, my Stats professor was very proud of me then and I imagine that hasn't changed.

I did use the word "may" in my talk about NY City's number. I never said it was a fact. The facts I talked about were in relation to actual numbers tested and actual positives and how those relate to make the "curve", which flattens as tests go up at a faster rate than positives.

It actually makes me feel ok to know you so vehemently disagree with me. 
I feel on solid ground posting about near 90% death rates for those intubated in NY or that the leading minds feel there will be another wave in the Fall or that the collateral damage just might be worse than the disease. Those all have actual data to back them up.

Anyway- lets see if you are man enough to admit your prior accusations were wrong......

.


----------



## backcountry

I've always been honest enough to admit my errors in this thread. Done it multiple times. Honesty isn't manly, it's a universal trait of value with anything science related.

You are correct, I transcribed that poorly and got the percentage wrong. A rather unfortunate error on my part.

Can you recognize the error in your approach? Your equation is fundamentally wrong from logic and biology. Care to admit your error? Being so far away from the conclusions of professional studies should give it away. 

The Standford facility may have great statisticians but they released a paper to the public without peer review and it shows. Their assumptions were significantly flawed but they released conclusions nonetheless. The math in the above link exposes it. Multiple other analyses have as well.

Only went as personal as you did, with the "statistics" jab. A bit ironic given my basic error but yours also has an underlying issue that affects your entire hypothesis. One not backed by science or data and I'm not sticking to my mistake. The "junk" comment isn't to your person and isn't personal. It's to the general gestalt of your posts, which are junk. I'll stick by that until your posts align with quality science not the psuedoscience so rampant on the internet.

And it's a bit of an ironic complaint if you are gonna go with the assumption I'm being sensitive. I'm definitely not. I've made it abundantly clear I don't react emotionally to such junk on the internet. I do however think criticising claims like "1000 times" less fatal is fair game for full frontal assaults when they are done so persistently. Despite my transcription being painfully wrong there is still a significant jump between the Stanford lower limit and yours. It's not a minor caveat that their flawed range is still much larger than yours. It's junk pseudoscience to make the claims you have.

PS... I've stated multiple times we could be at the top of the curve, even the backside, according to the equation you highlight. Even daily positives in Utah hints at that possiblity. That would align with the goal of flattening the curve. I'm just not convinced that is the place to loosen most guidelines, and most epidemiologist concur. It's the May 1 deadline floating around and still being around the top of the curve that has me pessimistic and skeptical of current approaches.


----------



## Packout

backcountry said:


> I've always been honest enough to admit my errors in this thread. Done it multiple times. Honesty isn't manly, it's a universal trait of value with anything science related.
> 
> You are correct, I transcribed that poorly and got the percentage wrong. A rather unfortunate error on my part.
> 
> Can you recognize the error in your approach? Your equation is fundamentally wrong from logic and biology. Care to admit your error? Being so far away from the conclusions of professional studies should give it away.
> 
> I do however think criticising claims like "1000 times" less fatal is fair game for full frontal assaults when they are done so persistently. Despite my transcription being painfully wrong there is still a significant jump between the Stanford lower limit and yours. It's not a minor caveat that their flawed range is still much larger than yours. It's junk pseudoscience to make the claims you have.


Thank You. Really, I appreciate you recognizing the error.

Your above quote of "1000 times" is also incorrect. I said 1000%, which is in fact 10 times. So please, don't mis-quote me. We were originally told that the death rate would be 5% or more. That is where they got the death estimates in the millions. So if the death rate is really .5% then 5% is 1000% or 10x more than the reality. I am using a number within the range of what is being seen. That number has been .1% to 2% from much of the data I have seen.

I just listened to Brisket's links for the first time. The Drs use the same statistical analysis as I have been considering. They seem close to "biology" and "professional studies". If you want to listen to a different mindset, I'd recommend giving it a listen. Even if you disagree, you will understand where some are coming from.


----------



## backcountry

Packout said:


> Your above quote of "1000 times" is also incorrect. I said 1000%, which is in fact 10 times. So please, don't mis-quote me. We were originally told that the death ratewould be 5% or more. That is where they got the death estimates in the millions. So if the death rate is really .5% then 5% is 1000% or 10x more than the reality. I am using a number within the range of what is being seen. That number has been .1% to 2% from much of the data I have seen.
> 
> I just listened to Brisket's links for the first time. The Drs use the same statistical analysis as I have been considering. They seem close to "biology" and "professional studies". If you want to listen to a different mindset, I'd recommend giving it a listen. Even if you disagree, you will understand where some are coming from.


You are correct that I misquoted. My sincere apologies for such a sloppy comment. But you'll see why it doesn't matter in a second and was likely a kinder interpretation.

So, lets correct the errors we are both making which might account for the miscommunication.

First, CFRs in Feb-March did not highlight a clean CFR of 5% or higher. Initial reports ranged from 3.5-5%. We've seen regionally higher fatalities but that doesn't necessarily bias the general numbers. Wuhan saw reports of 5.8% at certain points and Italy even higher. But no major organization of credibility reported those as the actual estimates for CFR.

Second, lets go back to your original claim: "That possible death rate is 1000% less than previously suspected". Lets take your problematic claim that "we were originally told that the death rate would be 5% or more" at face value. The decrease from 5% to .5% is a 90% change. The jump from 5% CFR to 0.1% (Stanford's problematic number) is a decrease, ie "less", of 98%.

Its simply not possible to have a "1000% less" CFR than the original 5% (.05). There aren't negative fatality rates unless this is a zombie disease after all and can reanimate the dead. Its why I switched it mentally to "times" but I still made the mistake of stating the improper framework of "less".

But are you going to show the same vulnerability and admit where your personal formulas have gone wrong and remain even less than Stanford? I mean beyond the "1000% less" claim. The very structure of your fatality rate reasoning is problematic, even more so than Stanford's. Are your going to be honest were your assumptions are hard to justify mathematically and biologically?


----------



## Lone_Hunter

If cases are still climbing, today I saw why. Had to go into one of my local autopart stores today, because you can't exactly order a truck battery online.

I TRIED curbside pickup... went through the whole rigamarole on the phone. As I was on the phone with the clerk, I watched people coming in and out of the store. Nobody wore ANY PPE at all, nor even a half ass attempt at it. Saw this one dude walk in and out with his daughter like nothing had ever happened. I only saw ONE guy, who made an attempt to not grab the same pull handle everyone else did with their bare hands by grabbing it with his sweater.

So as I'm watching all this, the clerk goes, "you have to come inside to sign". My thought was running every iteration of "WTF", but I reigned it in, because I didn't want to be "That guy". Ok fine, I'll go inside without complaint. Put on a mask, and some D3A leather gloves that i grabbed out of storage. Walk in with my old battery so I can get my core charge back.

Not one person, employee, nor customer was using gloves, mask, nor keeping 6 feet. NOT ONE, except me. Lady I was talking to, says, you need to come over here, so rather then walk near everyone, I walk clear to the back of the store, and around. 

I know I looked like the albatross in the room, but I honestly don't care. 

From the looks of things, either nobody EVER gave a ****, OR, they stopped caring. OR... I know.. everyone there was special. Rules, directives, nor bad luck apply to them.


I wish I was a special person. Must be nice.....


----------



## backcountry

Packout said:


> So I Didn't take Epidemiology, but it is just plain weird to me how some people brush over the facts of ratios and how they pertain to a curve. My college Stats professor would be disappointed.
> 
> A post made earlier about that percentages of deaths from covid 19 infection was very interesting. Some of you blew right past it- but it was the most important part of the equation as Covid death rates appear to be much lower than previously reported.
> 
> New York City has a random sample which shows that 20% of the population may have been infected. 20% of New York City's population is close to 2 million people. There have been 11,500 deaths in NYC. That equates to a death rate of .005 Or in other words- if 200 people get infected then 1 dies. Here is the sticking point- many of the deaths are extreme risk patients- not the 40 year old with asthma (although still concerning) but 85 year old Alzheimer patients or 74 year old diabetics or 65 year old smoker with damaged lungs. That possible death rate is 1000% less than previously suspected. (FYI- as of today there are less than 3 million cases confirmed, yet NY's data shows there could have been 2 million in their city alone)
> 
> No one wants anyone to die. Death is part of the life cycle. The collateral damage taken on everyone is concerning to me. And no, I'm not storming the capital, but I'd advise anyone to take Backcountry's ever evolving posts with a grain of salt.
> 
> .


So let's actually calculate the NYC data correctly. If we assume 20% of the NYC population, 8.55 million estimated for 2020, has been infected, according to your statement, than that equates to 1.71 million citizens. We have 11,817 confirmed deaths in the city from the disease. With that calculation the new estimated CFR would be 0.69%. That number is 38% greater than your quick calculation but still wrong (rounding up so much as you did in population leads to big problems in statistical analysis but favors your hypothesis). Even so that would mean such an estimated CFR would be between 80-86% smaller than initial CFR estimates from February and early March. Nonetheless, that is 6 times greater than the generic seasonal influenza death rate, even with severe limitations on movement and contact in the city that aren't implemented with flu.

If you understand biology, statistics and logic enough you should be able to figure out the problem to your approach. Its laid out in the paragraph above.


----------



## Packout

Edited-- Nevermind. It isn't worth the hassle. Good luck in your quest of whatever that is. 

.


----------



## middlefork

Lone, why do you of all people think others are going to take care of you?

Better build a better bubble around yourself. That home made cloth mask and leather gloves won't do anything to protect you.


----------



## backcountry

Packout said:


> Edited-- Nevermind. It isn't worth the hassle. Good luck in your quest of whatever that is.
> 
> .


That post doesn't exactly expose the intellectual integrity you challenged me to provide. I stood up and admitted my errors, publicly and unequivocally. Both times you referenced them.

As I stated before, an unwillingness to admit how you shade data and math with personal worldviews is a hallmark of psuedoscience. It's a junk worldview that deserves zero respect in public forums and I'll continue to criticize it. I have no doubt I'll make mistakes along the way but I won't stick by those mistakes if pointed out as errors or if provided a compelling argument why it's flawed. I tend to be very critical of posts that expect that to be a one way street.


----------



## Packout

Honestly Backcountry, if I had posted .0069 you would have still nit picked it. I rounded a couple numbers to get an easy to follow example. The point of it was not to give exactness, but show how the numbers keep evolving over time. And that evolution continues downward on fatality and upward on infected. So yes I did round (both ways actually- what you'd consider "for and against") and it isn't the final numbers of how all this will shake out anyway. We are way out from final data. 

I never did say it was less worrisome/deadly than the flu. I also compared the numbers to previous claims that we'd see 5% or more fatalities. Yet the numbers are showing far less. 

You just show too many belligerent tendencies to want to have a discussion with you. You glom on to one point to try to beat someone, while not looking at the whole. At least you admit that others' "worldview that deserves zero respect in public forums". 
I'll leave you to police the public for the "Greater Good".


----------



## backcountry

Packout said:


> Honestly Backcountry, if I had posted .0069 you would have still nit picked it. I rounded a couple numbers to get an easy to follow example. The point of it was not to give exactness, but show how the numbers keep evolving over time. And that evolution continues downward on fatality and upward on infected. So yes I did round (both ways actually) and it isn't the final numbers of how all this will shake out anyway. We are way out from final data.
> 
> I never did say it was less worrisome/deadly than the flu. I also compared the numbers to previous claims that we'd see 5% or more fatalities. Yet the numbers are showing far less.
> 
> You just show too many belligerent tendencies to want to have a discussion with you. You glom on to one point to try to beat someone, while not looking at the whole. At least you admit that others' "worldview that deserves zero respect in public forums".
> I'll leave you to police the public for the "Greater Good".


There you go cherry-picking again (it's the root problem in your NYC claims). I pinpointed an exact "worldview" that deserves zero respect, not a broad range of "other's". And I have no problem doubling down on that conclusion...."an unwillingness to admit how you shade data and math with personal worldviews is a hallmark of psuedoscience. It's a junk worldview that deserves zero respect in public forums and I'll continue to criticize it.".

I can definitely be antagonistic to certain claims, like "1000% less" fatal than originally stated. You doubled down on that fallacious claim while trying to correct my use of "times" (which was logically closer and kinder).

I also have no problem going after posts that are using science out of context to prove some point about the preference to open up in the middle of a pandemic. Since you are unwilling to follow up with honest assessment of your errors I'll point them out....you cherry-picked from NYC reports. Cuomo and every reliable source I've read on the subject make it clear not to jump to conclusions about the antibody study analysis because of its inherent limitations. One of those explicitly mentioned is doing statistical models of potential infections without recognizing such logic includes the likelihood of an undercount in fatalities; you are combining datasets with fundamentally different assumptions and limitations and it unshockingly favors your worldview. It's a junk approach and it's why every reliable source is telling people not to do exactly what you did.

On top of it you failed to talk about other limitations which include an unspecified false positive rate. Those tests can be extremely poor and many have a false positive rate of upwards of 7%. I assume given your statistical achievements you understand how that influences your conclusions even more, correct?

Just combine those two factors and you can see why going on the internet and repeating fatality rates could be "1000% less" multiple times might meet a fair amount of antagonism.

And going after someone for "belligerent tendencies" is a bit rich given your passive aggressive and aggressive comments directed at me. Especially after complaining I made it personal.

PS...Glad you know me so well to know I would have nitpicked an accurate calculation. It's an ironic statement given I've posted similar figures as the range of possible CFRs.


----------



## DallanC

Packout said:


> Honestly Backcountry, .


Just put him on ignore like most of us and let him howl in his own personal echo chamber lol.

As for us, we had to run alot of errands today, the amount of people out and about was astounding. It was like nothing had even happened. Finding a parking spot truly was frustrating, there's a reason I dont shop on black friday... and this felt like that. In fact the only thing I could really tell was closed was the outlet mall by Cabelas, they have a locked gate.

But Ace Hardware, Lowes, HomeDepot, Smiths, Macys, fast food spots, heck even the little girl dance studio near me had a full parking lots. Getting hair appointments made, have dental appointments next week.

Few people had masks, maybe 1 in 30 but most people give no F's. Felt great to be out and about. Bring on summer! Oh yea, and unlock the freaking sand dunes already!

-DallanC


----------



## BGD

OP - Hey all, it is about 6:00 pm. 

Backcountry - it is not 6:00. It is 5:57. 

OP - sorry I rounded. 

Backcountry - well if you rounded you should have rounded to 5:55 

OP - Sorry I chose to round to the nearest hour. 

Backcountry - it is totally wrong and inaccurate to round to the nearest hour instead of the nearest 5 minutes. Let me explain why. 1000 words later Backcountry is still explaining but everyone has stopped listening because we are all TIRED OF LISTENING! And, it isn’t changing anybody’s mind. 

I don’t really have a dog in the fight. I’m not a debater. I have agreed with Backcountry some of the time and others some other times. But, I have come to the point I just cannot listen to Backcountry any longer. Backcountry, If you are trying to get people to listen to your message, IMO, you are totally going about it the wrong way. Just my two cents.


----------



## backcountry

Per DallanC,

Ignore is always a good option. I'd wager a few have done so because of this thread. But at the end of the day if getting "ignored" for calling out the "cure is worse than the disease" talking point ends that way I'll be perfectly fine. Once the pandemic was clearly becoming bad and people starting posting such trash I intentionally decided that was a fight worth having.


----------



## backcountry

BGD,

I can respect that conclusion. I've spent a fair amount of time trying different strategies in scenarios like this and at the end of the day I've decided full frontal antagonism to some things is the best. I don't expect to change the minds of people settled on something as pernicious as "the cure is worse than the disease" but I'm also done letting those ideas go unchallenged on forums. 

I'm smart enough to know the only way to change most ideological minds is to appeal obliquely to their values and play the long game. That's not going to happen on this forum on this subject. The astroturf catalyst behind most of these concepts is too successful. 

So I've settled for staking my ground without remorse. If people compare being told to stay indoors to the Holocaust I'm going to call bull****. If posts have manufactured statistics to justify false comparisons (DallanC's post) I'm going to call bull****. If posts expose a priority of greed and cashing in from a global pandemic they call a "minor scare" than I'll highlight the greed and inhumanity behind their post. So it goes. I'm just done acting like stupid **** used to minimize this world event is a normal worth passively accepting.


----------



## backcountry

On that note.... another day in which more than 2000 fellow Americans died and 35000 were confirmed to be infected. But it's just a "minor scare" right?


----------



## Lone_Hunter

middlefork said:


> Lone, why do you of all people think others are going to take care of you?
> 
> Better build a better bubble around yourself. That home made cloth mask and leather gloves won't do anything to protect you.


Hah hah, funny. If your mocking me, i don't care. People in general suck. Always have. I expect two things from them. Jack, and schitt, and jack left town years ago. One more reason I'd rather be in Alaska, less people.

And I don't do the home made masks. We've had surgical masks since the start of this pandemic. Not an N95, but probably better then wrapping and old T shirt over my fugly mug.

On that note, I think it would have been hilarious to walk in with a full chem suit on in MOPP4 sucking rubber like darth vader. The stares and looks would be priceless. If I still had my C bag, i'd do it, and post the video on youtube, just for grins.

EDIT:

Oh yeah, almost forgot; this is good news, or bad news, depending on your view of sheep.
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4...ing-impacts-wool-market-lambs-foreign-imports



> At the same time, operational costs keep going up. Ranchers are paying migrant workers - if they can find them because of the pandemic - more than double what they did just a few years ago because of federal regulations. It's also been tough finding their food supplies, which include rice, beans and canned meat in strong demand because of hoarding.


I guess there is a chance we might not be seeing Joaquine from Peru this year.


----------



## backcountry

Seems like I keep aligning with people in unexpected ways. I don't expect much from people, like Lone. Ironically that often leaves me impressed as most Americans seem to step up despite the cliches. Same with most Utahns. I think most people realize this is the real deal and do what's selfless because they know it matters. And what matters, like wearing masks, really comes at little cost. (Losing job, other side effects, definitely cost) 

I'm shocked that anyone would assume Lone would expect people to "take care of him.". That's got to be one of the most absurd things I've read on this forum. I disagree with him on many think but I recognize he's sincere in his independence (or at least relatively self sustaining) and worldview. 

Given this is a hunting forum, and we try to understand wildlife, I'm a bit shocked that many people don't seem to recognize cooperation and group vigilance aren't as selfless as most seem to believe.


----------



## middlefork

Lone, Not mocking in the least. Go full blown cem suit if that is what it takes to make you feel better. But if you demand other people respect your concerns then prepare to be disappointed.

BC I think you will find most people are going to react to this situation the way they feel will benefit them and their family the most. There is going to be a very wide range of beliefs based on facts or hearsay.

The fact is that no matter what you or anybody else thinks there is not going to be an agreement as to what the "proper" course of action is.

Your stance is based on your personal situation and assumption of risk. Others may have different standards. Again do what you need to do to make yourself as safe and comfortable as you need to be. But don't rely on other people to all agree with your stance.

And be vigilant about sterilizing your shoes along with everything else. Apparently the virus can live up to 2 days on the sole of your shoes.

Carry on in the best possible way!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

middlefork said:


> Lone, Not mocking in the least. Go full blown cem suit if that is what it takes to make you feel better.


Uh huh. That was a joke. I'm sarcastic like that.



> But if you demand other people respect your concerns then prepare to be disappointed.
> !


 I don't demand anything from people. I judge people all the time, and I have no qualms in saying so; but I don't demand **** from anyone, let alone ask. Asking things from people, is one of the last things I'd ever do in this world. I don't even ask for help from my wife when I probably should. I just figure out how to do it on my own, and do it.

There is only ONE thing you can count on from people, and that is they will, in the end, always look out for their own self interests, whatever those are.

Just to make myself clear: :mrgreen:


----------



## backcountry

Saw the study about fomite transmission, including shoes. But I think it being a hospital environment matters. 

We haven't stepped foot in a store in more than a month so I'm not worried about shoes. We even spray down credit cards which even I think is a little too far but really can't hurt. 

I think most Americans do more than just think about what's needed for their households. I behave as if they don't but I've seen evidence that most of us are pretty altruistic. My local behavior is based on local habits which have been idiosyncratic. Most don't seem to think it's legit from my limited observation and those of people helping us. Few masks and a lot of overt mocking. Stores are being diligent it seems (Ladybug is awesome) but I'm not expecting any voluntary cooperation from the average person. Low expectations protect us and ultimately lead to less disappointment.

Until masks become the norm we can't go "out" confidently as a household. Sadly I don't see SW Utah being a model community for that type of solidarity no matter how many signs they put up. Which is sad as it's likely to impact everyone negatively, not just high risk households. I think our area is destined for some tough love come the autumn as pandemics don't respond well to the sort of focus we see here. 

Fingers crossed my guess is wrong.


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> There is only ONE thing you can count on from people, and that is they will, in the end, always look out for their own self interests, whatever those are.


Disagree vehemently. I see people sacrifice their own self interests for others all the time. All. The. Time! I see it virtually every day of my life. That is a really sad outlook on the world, and probably is more telling about your mindset than anyone else's.

While it may be true for some, it is not true in general. I think you need to change your own mindset so you can start seeing the good around you. That's my unsolicited and most likely unwanted advice for the day.


----------



## backcountry

Different note....Utah is starting to look fairly bimodal as I initially guestimated. An early "peak" around the 2nd-4th
and a secondary one forming now. Hard to form clean analysis as the data is constantly being edited but there is no way a data driven approach leads to a reopening with the subtle climb in numbers we are experiencing. We aren't over the peak and we haven't crushed the curve yet. Doing comparatively well? Yes, but not done.

IMHE'S standard of one new case per million as the threshold seems a bit unlikely, given Utah's unique politics, but I definitely think we are going to have to be very diligent with new cases. We have excess hospital threshold but our economy is very service driven which doesn't bode well for social distancing. I don't know what our exact balance will be but I'm not convinced the current numbers represent a good time to "reopen".

(Attached image is with a 6 day running average trend line. It's not a perfect representation but it's what I can create without better software. Started downloading daily 8+ days ago, ie doesn't include constantly changing edits from the state.)


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> While it may be true for some, it is not true in general..


I think you have that backwards. Exceptional people are exceptional because they are not the norm.


----------



## backcountry

Lone_Hunter said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> While it may be true for some, it is not true in general..
> 
> 
> 
> I think you have that backwards. Exceptional people are exceptional because they are not the norm.
Click to expand...

But I think the difference is Vanilla, and I, don't see these types of behavior as exceptional. I don't expect them from people as I find that leads to disappointment (because of a persistent minority). But I think most people are willing to sacrifice, at least a bit, in moments like this for whatever "common good" we need to rally around. But I also think most people realize such cooperation isn't purely selfless as fostering such altruism has many social dividends, some of which everyone benefits from.

Just look at the pandemic. It's really not that hard to ignore most states mandates and still be relatively selfish. But most people are not just doing the minimum but are instead abiding to the true spirit of the event. Utah is a great example right now.

But we all have different experiences that inform us differently.


----------



## Vanilla

My view of people and their willingness to put self interest aside and help others has nothing to do with the pandemic. The pandemic has helped provide an opportunity for that to become more visible, but take away the pandemic, pretend it never happened, everything is riding high, and most people are still going out of their way and inconveniencing themselves to bless the lives of others. 

Again, I see it virtually every day. And have for as long as I can remember.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Different note....Utah is starting to look fairly bimodal as I initially guestimated. An early "peak" around the 2nd-4th
> and a secondary one forming now.


I disagree with this conclusion. You must take into account that the original peak achieved their numbers with approximately half the tests being conducted compared to this week and the current state. Additionally, criteria were then in place to *not* test many folks that were only exhibiting mild symptoms. Doubtless, if current testing intensity was done then, the number would have been much higher. Today's numbers report the highest number of daily reported tests yet (5500) to get the 170 positives. The positive rate was only 4%. To me, we appear to be on a plateau as opposed to a secondary spike. And the positive rate is slowly creeping downward.

Other statistical oriented observers consider looking at the positive rate as a key indicator of declaring "peaks". I do know it is a significant factor in making Utah's policy decisions too.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Different note....Utah is starting to look fairly bimodal as I initially guestimated. An early "peak" around the 2nd-4th
> and a secondary one forming now.
> 
> 
> 
> I disagree with this conclusion. You must take into account that the original peak achieved their numbers with approximately half the tests being conducted compared to this week and the current state. Additionally, criteria were then in place to *not* test many folks that were only exhibiting mild symptoms. Doubtless, if current testing intensity was done then, the number would have been much higher. Today's numbers report the highest number of daily reported tests yet (5500) to get the 170 positives. I positive rate was only 4%. To me, we appear to be on a plateau as opposed to a secondary spike. And the positive rate is slowly creeping downward.
> 
> Other statistical oriented observers consider looking at the positive rate as a key indicator of declaring "peaks". I do know it is a significant factor in making Utah's policy decisions too.
> 
> https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/
Click to expand...

I agree it's only one of several factors. I disagree we can so clearly assume what you state about potential positives in Utah at the beginning. We simply don't know and likely never will know that level of information. We have an incomplete dataset in which the parameters have changed multiple times. We can make inferences about the actual disease peak but we'll never know. But we can model the actual new positives we have and it points to a secondary peak happening right now, even if minor. That may not align with the actual disease peak but we won't know that for months or years.

I understand why the state wants to use the daily percent positive. It does provide information that is key to modeling the big picture. And I understand the arguments for using it as one way to model peaks. But I simply don't trust that as the metric given all the inherent limitations and inconsistencies baked into it. I don't go outside and interact with ratios. I have to return to a world with actual people and the daily positives are actual people in our communities.

I say that from a very personal standpoint but one also laid out plainly in the "Utah Leads Together" plan on page 1 of the Urgent Phase (Background information section).

"Current estimates suggest that to reach 
a less than 1 to 1 transmission rate, Utah must have no more than 800-1000 new statewide infections on or before April 30, 2020, with the number of new cases declining from that point forward."

We are at April 26th and the new cases are inclining. They don't list percent infection rate but "new cases". We still have several days to that deadline but the trend of "new cases" is not exactly stable or declining.

There is more flexibility in the way they phrased the first sentence as it's not clear if they was a daily total positives (figures of modeled peak?), running total of currently infected (graph of estimates on website), etc. If daily new positives than we are well below that threshold, no argument there. If it's the number of "estimated active cases" from the website than we are still well above that threshold; given their imprecise wording I'm not convinced it was that metric either. To be honest I'm not sure they are sticking to the language and standards laid out there.

Whatever the case, daily new positives have been increasing each day for a week (as an averaged trend line). They do not use percent positive as the standard laid out in the public plan. Utah chose to produce a plan of staggered reopening and be transparent on metrics. As I've said for more than in a week it's time to talk directly to that plan and how we are comparing to those benchmarks. If they want to change the standards therein they need to justify it and explain why we are altering expectations so blatantly.

PS...I still say Utah has faired well but the next step is a tricky bugger. No matter the case, they have succeeded at many of the 6 goals laid out for the urgent phase.


----------



## backcountry

For some reason I couldn't transfer document.


----------



## middlefork

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...re-s-what-we-saw/ar-BB13dOWb?ocid=hplocalnews


----------



## backcountry

Packout said:


> I just listened to Brisket's links for the first time. The Drs use the same statistical analysis as I have been considering. They seem close to "biology" and "professional studies". If you want to listen to a different mindset, I'd recommend giving it a listen. Even if you disagree, you will understand where some are coming from.


Anybody watch this? I finally made it more than a few scans before puking. Made it roughly ten minutes and I can see why people are using it to justify their pre-existing worldview.

Minute 4:05
"6.5% of the population": that's not a scientifically supported claim. That mistake alone (called out by a reporter in a few minutes) disqualifies the entire press conference. His 6.5% claim is 100% contextual to how many tests were conducted not the population in general. These were not randomized and wouldn't pass any peer review muster for making such claims.

The same error was repeated multiple times with no self-awareness to their flaw. They are taking data out of context and "extrapolating" to entire populations without even minimally expected design standards.

Minute 6:12

96% recover with almost no significant sequelae:. Not a scientifically justified claim. And it's actually one which initial reporting contradicts. We are seeing plenty of anecdotes of cases with immediate sequelae, even in California. But it's way too early to make concrete claims because our systems aren't adequately testing for those yet. Sadly, we often don't know about sequelae with emerging diseases until years later. We don't know what long term damage, if any, is happening to the lungs, hearts, brains and kidneys of these survivors. But we do have plenty of anecdotes that are leading specialist to believe the virus may be neurotoxic and likely to impact critical body systems in the long term. But those are all intentionally hedged because we don't have the data yet to make scientific claims with any confidence, so nobody can say "no significant sequelae".

I stopped there as even the reporter on scene called the doctor out. These guys are stepping way out of their lanes. That may seem ironic coming from someone avocationally following along but it merits noting since they chose to call a press conference and failed to use proper language and limit claims to proper context. I have no reason to doubt these guys are great doctors and business owners but they are clearly not data scientist and willing to abide by basic expectations of scientific claims.

Within a few days the health department not so subtly distanced themselves from these two and outright denied several of the claims they make in the video. Something smells fishy about this entire scenario and if I were a betting man I'd say this isn't the last time we hear about this likely PR oriented presentation.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> I stopped there as even the reporter on scene called the doctor out. These guys are stepping way out of their lanes. *That may seem ironic coming from someone avocationally following along...*


Ha! Yep, it does. In fact, that was my exact thought before I read the bolded statement.

Maybe I should follow your lead and just stop here? This topic has gone from a healthy discussion to a constant barrage of lectures and brow-beating for anyone not in lock step with your ideas. The thread, and topic as a whole, has probably run it's course. Too bad too, it was very productive for a long time. I can say well done to most everyone. I didn't think it would make it this long without a lockdown. (No pun intended)


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I stopped there as even the reporter on scene called the doctor out. These guys are stepping way out of their lanes. *That may seem ironic coming from someone avocationally following along...*
> 
> 
> 
> Ha! Yep, it does. In fact, that was my exact thought before I read the bolded statement.
> 
> Maybe I should follow your lead and just stop here? This topic has gone from a healthy discussion to a constant barrage of lectures and brow-beating for anyone not in lock step with your ideas. The thread, and topic as a whole, has probably run it's course. Too bad too, it was very productive for a long time. I can say well done to most everyone. I didn't think it would make it this long without a lockdown. (No pun intended)
Click to expand...

No worries but a bit ironic as well since you seem to be browbeating me more than a bit as well. Like I said, we are pretty similar as it's one of your commonly used tools on the site.

Here is a link to some of the issues these two doctors want to gloss over:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients

PS...your posts doesn't exactly exhibit the self accountability you chastised me for earlier. Ironically, I'm the one whose fully owned my strategy. I'm not shy about the recent approach(or the Holocaust comparison one either) and I've owned it.


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> Maybe I should follow your lead and just stop here? This topic has gone from a healthy discussion to a constant barrage of lectures and brow-beating for anyone not in lock step with your ideas. The thread, and topic as a whole, has probably run it's course. Too bad too, it was very productive for a long time. I can say well done to most everyone. I didn't think it would make it this long without a lockdown. (No pun intended)


I think he is Karl's brother :mrgreen:

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

My favorite part is how many people set the ignore function but still remain fascinated. Talk about an odd fan club.

I've got at least two people following up about comments about me. Seems a little odd for people who claim I'm not worth any time.

*One seems to like to copy and paste self-contradictory statistics to claim the "cure is worse than the disease" and the other compares the US situation to Nazi Germany. I think I'm fine with "ignore".


----------



## backcountry

A lighter note from the world of purveyors of tinfoil: 2020 quarter's bat

https://tinyurl.com/yc5pg49m


----------



## Dunkem

Wow 150 pages, been interesting, insightful, little brow beating, you guys have been almost legal on this one. Thanks. oh ya -O\\__-


----------



## RandomElk16

I've been down too many rabbit holes with this lately. Crazy times we live in, that's for sure.

Pretty cool we dropped to 4.2% positive and broke 100,000 tests.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/27...-of-testing-levels-needed-for-safe-reopening/

This says Utah only needs to test 600 people a day to be prepared to open by May 1(that's obviously only one measure of "ready"). They really have done a great job with this. Not sure who we are supposed to applaud for that honestly.


----------



## backcountry

Last I saw (Utah site temporarily down) we now have two days of noticeable decline in new positives and our local health board said state is downgrading from Urgent Phase on Friday. 

Hopefully trend holds until then. Was also refreshing to see a decrease in national numbers yesterday. 

Going to be a wild ride. Tyson's full page advertisement about potential supply shortages is not good news. Goes to show it's not "only" about "fear". Meat processing plants that remained open have struggled to mitigate the risks well enough to prevent closure because of employee sickness and deaths. Each work site will be different but it's going to take serious changes when people start returning to newly reopened businesses.

Best of luck folks. The next phase is about to start and I think it's going to be bumpy.


----------



## Vanilla

I guess it depends on your perspective. I think what we’ve dealt with the last 7 weeks is more way more than bumpy already. I think things are looking to get better than they’ve been. All a matter of perspective, I guess. 

Well done, Utah. You gave people hope by putting together a plan, You executed it, and we’re seeing progress. Bravo!


----------



## backcountry

As an experience to everyday life and deviation from status quo? I agree, its definitely been bumpy. As an observation of rolled out response? I agree.

As an observation of the disease's path and spread? I think it was a relatively smooth process compared to what happens when you reopen "non-essential" businesses and slowly experiment with diminishing social distancing. I think its much its a much "bumpier" process compared to the initial "flatten the curve" response.

Sheltering in place is a relatively blunt tool. Now we are going to apply ones more precise which comes with different risk. Even with fairly successful contact tracing we are likely to see spikes in transmission from places like restaurants, gyms, etc. That's what I mean by bumpy. Lets hope the spikes aren't common or big.


----------



## Vanilla

As you’re well aware, you always have the choice to remain home. Nobody is going to force you to go to a gym if/when they open them. But there are people that will want to go, and I’m sure there are many business owners that view their businesses as essential for their livelihood. Look someone in bankruptcy that is losing everything in the eye and tell them with a straight face that all this has only been a “minor inconvenience.” 

Progress. From a plan. I remember someone talking about that a long time ago well before we had seen either. 

Now back to thinking about the tags I’m going to draw this fall!


----------



## Catherder

As was explained by the governor today, going from "red" to "orange" doesn't mean that things will go back to pre covid anytime soon. It still means that there is considerable risk, with vulnerable groups being still considered in "red" status. Social distancing recommendations are unchanged. The state introduced a plan to give everyone a mask and to have it worn when in public. 
It does mean that some businesses can resume with carefully laid out plans of operation. It also means I won't get hassled by Wasatch county when I'm working over the smallies at Jordanelle in 6 weeks or when I'm driving up Guardsman to access our property. 

Sure, there may be bumps in the road, but I consider it a good and necessary step forward.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> As you're well aware, you always have the choice to remain home. Nobody is going to force you to go to a gym if/when they open them. But there are people that will want to go, and I'm sure there are many business owners that view their businesses as essential for their livelihood. Look someone in bankruptcy that is losing everything in the eye and tell them with a straight face that all this has only been a "minor inconvenience."
> 
> Progress. From a plan. I remember someone talking about that a long time ago well before we had seen either.
> 
> Now back to thinking about the tags I'm going to draw this fall!


You know I never said shutting business was a minor inconvenience, if that's what you are trying to imply. Always expressed sympathy there.

Not even saying they shouldn't open anymore now that it's meeting the threshold I cited a few days ago (as laid out in state document I linked). Cases are dropping and hopefully they will for rest of week that is good for all.

It's that the "bumpiness" will come from loosening protocol. It's a safe bet. The virus isn't gone and more interaction will increase spread. It's almost inevitable, just a matter of how quickly the state tamps down spikes with contact tracing thoroughness and speed. It's built into the equation. Over the next month or two we are likely to see a bunch of small "bumps" as cases ebb and flow.

Hopefully we find the right balance of economic recovery with minimal disease cases. But my approach remains skeptical. Too many moving, uncertain pieces for me to be confident in maintaining low levels of containment. I'd be more than happy being proven wrong on that view.


----------



## RandomElk16

My hope with re-opening is that businesses are delicate and understanding. If someone has a high risk individual at home, then their job shouldn't rush them back. 

My work is remote and doesn't have plans to rush us back. We are already setup and running. There isn't a reason to create undo pressures. 

People who are high risk, or live with high risk, should remain sheltered and their employers should both understand, and respect this. 



I do think that these steps are necessary. I think the world is forever changed, we just need to start shaping this new society.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Hopefully we find the right balance of economic recovery with minimal disease cases. But my approach remains skeptical. Too many moving, uncertain pieces for me to be confident in maintaining low levels of containment. I'd be more than happy being proven wrong on that view.


It wouldn't be the first time, and we're all grateful for that. You've taken an understandable skeptic position pretty much all along. We want you to keep being wrong, that will be a good thing for everyone across the board.


----------



## Packout

Vanilla said:


> It wouldn't be the first time, and we're all grateful for that. You've taken an understandable skeptic position pretty much all along. We want you to keep being wrong, that will be a good thing for everyone across the board.


Maybe the best post I've read this week.

And I thought this tid-bit was worthy of notice. (Not sure if it has been posted because I don't read everyone's posts anymore)
https://www.thailandmedical.news/ne...ses-according-to-the-specific-mutated-strains

A reason why some are becoming sick for a second time?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...may-not-shield-against-new-infection-who-says

Which then calls into question the goal of "herd immunity" and to a lesser extent, continued isolation tactics. At some point people need to decide if they want to live in life or to live life. This thing is far from being finished so how to proceed from here?


----------



## backcountry

Why do you keep posting the false dichotomy of "to live in life or to live life"? Most people recognize we aren't narrowed down to such a problematic approach. Most people do both daily. They did it before the pandemic, during and will likely continue after. 

Even my high risk household continues to live life fully in a way that protects our family while enjoying what it has to offer. 

And I am glad to be wrong on occasion. Would be great if more people owned their errors more. Openly and honestly.

PS... confused by your statement on "herd immunity". To clarify, most scientist are skeptical it's a viable option with a novel virus like this without the aid of a vaccine. It seems like you are in agreement that herd immunity without a vaccine is improbable?


----------



## backcountry

These guys have been documenting the evolution and phyologeny of SARS-CoV-2 for a few months now.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global


----------



## backcountry

Packout said:


> I just listened to Brisket's links for the first time. The Drs use the same statistical analysis as I have been considering. They seem close to "biology" and "professional studies". If you want to listen to a different mindset, I'd recommend giving it a listen. Even if you disagree, you will understand where some are coming from.


Talking about wrong. I had guessed this wouldn't be the last we heard about this duo.

Multiple professional organizations called them out as harshly as I have here for their comments, and with similar junk.

https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-1...-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/



> These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public's health.


Not words you hear often from medical professionals, but times like this call for attacking junk science head on.

YouTube removed their videos for violation of community rules, ie appears to regard misinformation.

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coron...-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube

Their press conference sparked an array of unusually harsh but consistent criticism

https://www.kqed.org/news/11814749/...ovid-19-test-conclusions-spread-like-wildfire



> They've used methods that are ludicrous to get results that are completely implausible





> basically hyped a bunch of data and weren't transparent about their methods. And they really played on the fact that they're physicians. I think it's quite disingenuous of them." Pan said. "Then we have to push back on any media that promotes this information. They're really doing this as a way to fish for attention.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Talking about wrong. I had guessed this wouldn't be the last we heard about this duo.
> 
> Multiple professional organizations called them out as harshly as I have here for their comments, and with similar junk.
> 
> https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-1...-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/
> 
> Not words you hear often from medical professionals, but times like this call for attacking junk science head on.
> 
> YouTube removed their videos for violation of community rules, ie appears to regard misinformation.
> 
> https://www.turnto23.com/news/coron...-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube
> 
> Their press conference sparked an array of unusually harsh but consistent criticism
> 
> https://www.kqed.org/news/11814749/...ovid-19-test-conclusions-spread-like-wildfire


I mean.... Couldn't everything about this virus be removed then since the bulk of what has been said is to-date assumptions that change the next week?


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

I Heard Oxford U. is a few months ahead of the rest of the world on a vaccine with promising results on a test of a few monkeys that were exposed and never contracted the virus. keep your fingers crossed that maybe a Nobel prize is in the making.:neutral:


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Talking about wrong. I had guessed this wouldn't be the last we heard about this duo.
> 
> Multiple professional organizations called them out as harshly as I have here for their comments, and with similar junk.
> 
> https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-1...-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/
> 
> Not words you hear often from medical professionals, but times like this call for attacking junk science head on.
> 
> YouTube removed their videos for violation of community rules, ie appears to regard misinformation.
> 
> https://www.turnto23.com/news/coron...-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube
> 
> Their press conference sparked an array of unusually harsh but consistent criticism
> 
> https://www.kqed.org/news/11814749/...ovid-19-test-conclusions-spread-like-wildfire
> 
> 
> 
> I mean.... Couldn't everything about this virus be removed then since the bulk of what has been said is to-date assumptions that change the next week?
Click to expand...

I can't speak to YouTube's exact choices other than I admire their willingness to try.

Generically, there is a fundamental difference between using best practices and the scientific shenanigans these two tried to pull. Models are inherently limited and change based upon new information. The information these two presented never met basic standards to begin with; they took data out of context and tried to apply it to circumstances it was not designed for.

I think they deserve every bit of condemnation they are receiving.


----------



## backcountry

7MM RELOADED said:


> I Heard Oxford U. is a few months ahead of the rest of the world on a vaccine with promising results on a test of a few monkeys that were exposed and never contracted the virus. keep your fingers crossed that maybe a Nobel prize is in the making.


This one?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html

Hadn't seen that news yet. Thx for sharing.

Pretty wild to read about the process. Another reason to be hopeful and skeptical at the same time. Pretty cool if the lab's years if focusing on malaria translate into an expedited vaccine for Covid-19. But it also goes to show how uncertain and non-linear these things can be.

Anybody else have a family member who survived Polio? I'll never fully understand my mom's experience with the disease and in quarantine but I found this book extremely well written and a thoughtful history of the disease and it's impact on America. It won a Pulitzer in 2006. Times have changed but it's one of the better histories of how diseases impact people and the scientific race to help.

https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/david-m-oshinsky


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> I mean.... Couldn't everything about this virus be removed then since the bulk of what has been said is to-date assumptions that change the next week?


No no no, you've got it all wrong. It's only assumptions that I don't agree with that are problematic. So long as they square with my view, assumptions are fine!

I'm not even defending these docs that appear to be total quacks. I haven't watched their message, but have followed the outcry by their colleagues afterward. It appears they deserve to be criticized. It's more about the way too prevalent attitude in our society that "you are entitled to your own opinion and free speech, so far as you agree with me." It doesn't matter the topic. It appears people are only interested in the "open mindedness" that agrees with their view of the world. Everyone else is evil or ignorant or unethical or ....(insert whatever other lazy take you want here)... for their viewpoint.


----------



## CPAjeff

Vanilla said:


> It's more about the way too prevalent attitude in our society that "you are entitled to your own opinion and free speech, so far as you agree with me." It doesn't matter the topic. It appears people are only interested in the "open mindedness" that agrees with their view of the world. Everyone else is evil or ignorant or unethical or ....(insert whatever other lazy take you want here)... for their viewpoint.


B-I-N-G-O and Vanilla was his name-o.


----------



## brisket

Paul Simon said:


> A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.


...


----------



## Vanilla

It’s not even about disagreeing, even openly, with others. Good dialogue is how truthful information is found and shared. 

It’s the notion that all other views I find wrong or offensive need to be shut down. That is where the problem lies for me.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,.

In the context of this issue and thread I don't see much evidence of that (post 1501). I see plenty of passionate criticisms; several of us have used harsh language against ideas, just like your "lazy take" jab. But a lazy take is different than calling a person lazy. Or look to interactions directed against Oli. 

I don't see much malice towards people even with heated conversations here. I don't see much evidence here that anyone has stated our fellow Americans are "evil" or stupid or unethical. Ideas? Yes. But we are more than our ideas and how we imperfectly share them in public. 

And I've never fully understand the "free speech" arguments given the specific legal and historical context of that phrase. In the context of this event I assume we both know YouTube, this forum and user criticism is not a infringement or reduction in anyone's actual free speech given its historical and legal meanings.


----------



## Vanilla

There is no constitutional implication of free speech in a privately owned business, Internet forum, etc. That is one of the most misunderstood “right” which doesn’t actually exist. 

But that’s not what I’m talking about. I didn’t expect you to agree with me on this one. But you very much have tried to silence and shut down people sharing their views that don’t jive with yours. You did it more covertly than deleting their content, but you’ve still done it. And you’ve been unashamed of it. 

That’s why so many have chosen to ignore you. But carry on.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> There is no constitutional implication of free speech in a privately owned business, Internet forum, etc. That is one of the most misunderstood "right" which doesn't actually exist.
> 
> But that's not what I'm talking about. I didn't expect you to agree with me on this one. But you very much have tried to silence and shut down people sharing their views that don't jive with yours. You did it more covertly than deleting their content, but you've still done it. And you've been unashamed of it.
> 
> That's why so many have chosen to ignore you. But carry on.


Nope, not silence. Only person I've openly "silenced" is Olibooger and that was after he asked for a public vote.

There is no evidence I've silenced anyone. I've been more than transparent in passionately criticizing others and also very comfortable with supporting others use the ignore feature (a type of silencing myself ironically). But silence, nope.

You have zero standing with that claim with the actual content of my posts. And I think you know this. And as I've said, we share similarities in how we interact with content we disagree with. I would put our posts (individual and together) and their gestalt in the top 10-15 of such types of verbal combat on this forum. Higher when you consider the regularity of it.

But that is were our criticisms diverge. My criticism doesn't claim you want to silence others. I don't know your motives beyond what you share. I don't presume to know. That type of assumption does get to the personal attack side and it's why it's out of bounds by most "rules" of dialogue. But your posts often contain that sort of unknowable claim and it's one of the top reasons we've butted heads.

Attacking what people have actually said is fundamentally different than attacking your presumption of it. The logic and rationality of those two strategies are light-years apart.


----------



## Vanilla

No, one of the top reasons we’ve butted heads is I challenge your sensitive views on topics, and you can’t handle that. The evidence is in your responses. Everyone but you can see it. 

We’ve mostly agreed on this present topic in at least the substance. It’s why you haven’t flipped out on me like you have others. But even this minor challenge to your procedure (not substance) has you coming at me again, which I can handle. 

You absolutely try to brow beat people into not posting things you don’t agree with. You’ll hang up on the minutia and annoy people into submission until they just stop posting what you don’t like. We’ve seen it more than on the coronavirus topic too. You can deny it, but that doesn’t make my claim of it untrue. 

Now all we need is a “that post is in bad faith” and we’ll hit every square on the “backcountry butthurt” bingo card! Come on, just throw it out there for me!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> No, one of the top reasons we've butted heads is I challenge your sensitive views on topics, and you can't handle that. The evidence is in your responses. Everyone but you can see it.
> 
> We've mostly agreed on this present topic in at least the substance. It's why you haven't flipped out on me like you have others. But even this minor challenge to your procedure (not substance) has you coming at me again, which I can handle.
> 
> You absolutely try to brow beat people into not posting things you don't agree with. You'll hang up on the minutia and annoy people into submission until they just stop posting what you don't like. We've seen it more than on the coronavirus topic too. You can deny it, but that doesn't make my claim of it untrue.
> 
> Now all we need is a "that post is in bad faith" and we'll hit every square on the "backcountry butthurt" bingo card! Come on, just throw it out there for me!


There you go with the actual personal attacks. It's pretty reliable pattern in your own posts.

The failed logic in your "silence" claim is that my attacks on certain post actually amplify their signal. Those are two mutually exclusive outcomes. My strategy is often criticized, in general criticisms of debate, because of that fact. Every time I harshly criticize the video I linked Packout's response, ie amplifying not silencing.

It's bogus logic.

That is how you keep it to the actual content of what was said, not going personal. I'm not coming out against you, I'm criticising your comments. There is a difference.


----------



## backcountry

I always enjoy when people assume to know my sensitivities. It gives me a good laugh. 

Be honest, is your motive to attack what you assume to be my sensitivities? If so, how does that square with the content of your post that catalyzed this interaction?

I won't assume your motives. I won't assume much about you ever. I've made that consistently clear. If you don't want to answer those questions, more power to you.


----------



## brisket

Another 3.8 million U.S. workers filed jobless claims last week, bringing the total to over 30 million since the lockdown began. Coming soon to a city near you:


----------



## backcountry

brisket said:


> Another 3.8 million U.S. workers filed jobless claims last week, bringing the total to over 30 million since the lockdown began. Coming soon to a city near you:


Rather prescient and ironic movie of Brisket to clip right now: a script about a subset of media that exploits a person who is going through a mental health crisis to tap into and cash in on populist rage. Evidently the satire wasn't cautionary enough.

Walgreens in Cedar is temporary closed for an "emergency". No way of being sure but it's a fair guess it's Covid-19 related given I've never seen them close before. Could be an actual case with their employees, a symptomatic employee or from contact tracing with the recent case in Iron Co. Could be something else. Hopefully they'll let us know soon.

Our "essential" businesses are displaying clearly how complex our new reality will be for a while. Meat processors are intermittently shutting down to the point of federal intervention. Grocery stores are intermittently closing after known contact, proactively or when employees contract the disease (a fair number of workers have died).

Our economic crash isn't simply because of the government intervention no matter how the narrative wants to simplify it as such. As we open "non-essential" businesses and expand our range of contact it's a fair estimate that disease transmission will see an increase. Best case scenario is we tamp it down as businesses thoroughly clean, test employees and customers, and patrons demand high standards of social distancing. Given some of the anecdotes (MiddleForks link to a basic survey of mask use in grocery stores) there is reason to be skeptical that we'll see a "best case" outcome in the next month.

We'll see; watching with millions of other high risk households until mitigation gets us through the next stage.


----------



## olibooger

Gentlemen, the food supply is beginning to go. A years worth of food, or until next years crop is a good idea. 
The vaccines are around the corner. 
This is going to slam hard come the fall. Dont be fooled. The virus will return and I would put a lot of money more shutdowns will result. Problem is the government now owns the majority of bigger business. It cannot sustain another shutdown and bailout. 

I havent visited the site for a while and wont again for a while. Seriously, dont be fooled.


----------



## backcountry

olibooger said:


> Gentlemen, the food supply is beginning to go. A years worth of food, or until next years crop is a good idea.
> The vaccines are around the corner.
> This is going to slam hard come the fall. Dont be fooled. The virus will return and I would put a lot of money more shutdowns will result. Problem is the government now owns the majority of bigger business. It cannot sustain another shutdown and bailout.
> 
> I havent visited the site for a while and wont again for a while. Seriously, dont be fooled.


Didn't see the announcement that the federal government now owns most big businesses. That news to me &#128580;


----------



## backcountry

Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Wonder if it impacts the state percent positive rate in a statically meaningful manner; though hard to know without an audit of how/why these tests are such an outlier.

Sounds like Dr. Dunn was trying to get them to correct course on protocol.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/04/30/this-is-potential-public/


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Wonder if it impacts the state percent positive rate in a statically meaningful manner; though hard to know without an audit of how/why these tests are such an outlier.
> 
> Sounds like Dr. Dunn was trying to get them to correct course on protocol.
> 
> https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/04/30/this-is-potential-public/


Hmm.. It says they tested those without symptoms. Wasn't the goal that anyone can be tested? Also - how do they know the symptomatic part? Did the company divulge that even though they supposedly weren't suppose to administer those tests?

These aren't arguing, I am simply curious. "This is no time for amateurs to learn" is sometimes a concerning statement because that can also be a "This is no time to share our profits at all". Trying to figure out which parts of this are real concerns and which aren't.

Walgreens never closes lol. Knowing that company well, I would 100% assume it was an in-store positive.

It was interesting for Birx to say that every single death, caused directly by covid or not, is counted as a covid death if there is a positive result. It goes with my research attempts I alluded to in a recent post that other death types are falling in NY, while NY is arguing that there are deaths occurring from strokes and heart attacks that AREN'T counted but should be. They may have occurred prematurely do to Covid is the argument. They want to count "presumed positive" in some of those cases which is interesting.

Many articles show NY is 3k or so above their expected death during a set time frame (duration of virus roughly Mar-Late April). At that time they had about 10K covid deaths, so expected death outside of covid was magically down 7k? It's no doubt this virus spreads and can kill. We know that. I don't believe we will have a close enough margin of error to know the true impact. It could be off by tens of thousands of deaths either way, changing % rates by a large margin. Makes you wonder how accurate previous pandemic numbers are...

A lot of this just highlights messes in multiple gov systems that predate this virus.


----------



## Jedidiah

If there isn't a legal requirement to vaccinate against COVID-19 I really hope businesses bar anyone from entering if they can't prove they've been vaccinated. You anti-vax nutjobs can just go build your own society. Helpful tip btw, if your 6 year-old tries to act up about getting vaccinated, don't worry...he's just having a midlife crisis.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> If there isn't a legal requirement to vaccinate against COVID-19 I really hope businesses bar anyone from entering if they can't prove they've been vaccinated. You anti-vax nutjobs can just go build your own society. Helpful tip btw, if your 6 year-old tries to act up about getting vaccinated, don't worry...he's just having a midlife crisis.


Welcome to the convo, Mr. Gates.

I am against global vaccine ID. While I get vaccines and give them to my kids, I can't say I am for freedom while forcing others to inject themselves with stuff that comes from random labs in other countries. I take that risk, I don't expect anyone to be forced to.

I won't lie... I am nervous to inject anything that says Covid-19 on my body. I don't have a tinfoil hat but there is substantially more at play in the pandemic-business industry.


----------



## Critter

You need to go to Africa and hunt in a yellow fever zone. 

If you don't have the card that says that you have been vaccinated you don't get out of the airport.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Wonder if it impacts the state percent positive rate in a statically meaningful manner; though hard to know without an audit of how/why these tests are such an outlier.
> 
> Sounds like Dr. Dunn was trying to get them to correct course on protocol.
> 
> https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/04/30/this-is-potential-public/
> 
> 
> 
> Hmm.. It says they tested those without symptoms. Wasn't the goal that anyone can be tested? Also - how do they know the symptomatic part? Did the company divulge that even though they supposedly weren't suppose to administer those tests?
> 
> These aren't arguing, I am simply curious. "This is no time for amateurs to learn" is sometimes a concerning statement because that can also be a "This is no time to share our profits at all". Trying to figure out which parts of this are real concerns and which aren't.
> 
> Walgreens never closes lol. Knowing that company well, I would 100% assume it was an in-store positive.
Click to expand...

From what I gleaned from the article, it's an issue of not having every site consistently follow guidelines and how that affects data and analysis statewide.

I would assume every company performing there tests have a way of differentiating asymptomatic from symptomatic on paperwork and therefore in their data at large.

The biggest question from the article is why are their symptomatic tests still such an outlier? It seems worth investigating and auditing to better understand. Hard to draw meaningful conclusions without more research but it's a red flag.

Definitely unusual to see Walgreens closed. We missed picking up our meds on Monday. Rare chance of contracting disease with such limited contact but glad not to have any known contact still.

More reason for people to download app from state that helps expedite contact tracing.


----------



## brisket

RandomElk16 said:


> Welcome to the convo, Mr. Gates.
> 
> I am against global vaccine ID. While I get vaccines and give them to my kids, I can't say I am for freedom while forcing others to inject themselves with stuff that comes from random labs in other countries. I take that risk, I don't expect anyone to be forced to.
> 
> I won't lie... I am nervous to inject anything that says Covid-19 on my body. I don't have a tinfoil hat but there is substantially more at play in the pandemic-business industry.


I'm with you. I'm not anti-vaccine, but I am against forced vaccinations. The problem is out of every crisis we loose freedoms. 9-11 brought us the Patriot Act. The Covid crisis could bring forced vaccinations among other things. People are so jacked on fear that they'll be clamoring for it.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> It was interesting for Birx to say that every single death, caused directly by covid or not, is counted as a covid death if there is a positive result. It goes with my research attempts I alluded to in a recent post that other death types are falling in NY, while NY is arguing that there are deaths occurring from strokes and heart attacks that AREN'T counted but should be. They may have occurred prematurely do to Covid is the argument. They want to count "presumed positive" in some of those cases which is interesting.
> 
> Many articles show NY is 3k or so above their expected death during a set time frame (duration of virus roughly Mar-Late April). At that time they had about 10K covid deaths, so expected death outside of covid was magically down 7k? It's no doubt this virus spreads and can kill. We know that. I don't believe we will have a close enough margin of error to know the true impact. It could be off by tens of thousands of deaths either way, changing % rates by a large margin. Makes you wonder how accurate previous pandemic numbers are...
> 
> A lot of this just highlights messes in multiple gov systems that predate this virus.


My understanding is that is the standard process for recording infectious diseases. Even when we look at the big numbers for seasonal flu those are estimates that include fatalities "burdened" by influenza even with underlying health issues.

Fact is most fatalities rely upon a judgement call from the medical team on the scene. Comparatively few deaths are actually studied for "actual" causes. (Another reason to believe we are possibly undercounting is even without the chaos of a pandemic more than a quarter of fatalities are incorrectly documented for cause of death)

Same goes for figures in heart disease, cancer, etc. Many health problems burden the body in certain ways but people often die from complications, consider HIV/AIDS. But we still count those in the figures for the disease believed to ultimately contribute to the death.

There is a lot of chatter in the country revolving around this issue about how they are listing deaths. But it's nothing new, unusual or conspiratorial. And it's not shocking when a disease that "preys" on high risk individuals with underlying health problems to have a decrease in deaths from those health problems. It's a logical outcome. The deaths at home currently unreported because of lack of testing will be more complicated to account for and will rely upon analysis later on. But indications are once we subtract known Covid-19 deaths we have still seen a spike in fatalities compared to historic norms (CDC data recently released). So most scientist and experts believe we are noticeably undercounting Covid-19 fatalities; I have yet to read a reputable source that claims the opposite.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> My understanding is that is the standard process for recording infectious diseases. Even when we look at the big numbers for seasonal flu those are estimates that include fatalities "burdened" by influenza even with underlying health issues.
> 
> Fact is most fatalities rely upon a judgement call from the medical team on the scene. Comparatively few deaths are actually studied for "actual" causes. (Another reason to believe we are possibly undercounting is even without the chaos of a pandemic more than a quarter of fatalities are incorrectly documented for cause of death)
> 
> Same goes for figures in heart disease, cancer, etc. Many health problems burden the body in certain ways but people often die from complications, consider HIV/AIDS. But we still count those in the figures for the disease believed to ultimately contribute to the death.
> 
> There is a lot of chatter in the country revolving around this issue about how they are listing deaths. But it's nothing new, unusual or conspiratorial. And it's not shocking when a disease that "preys" on high risk individuals with underlying health problems to have a decrease in deaths from those health problems. It's a logical outcome. The deaths at home currently unreported because of lack of testing will be more complicated to account for and will rely upon analysis later on. But indications are once we subtract known Covid-19 deaths we have still seen a spike in fatalities compared to historic norms (CDC data recently released). So most scientist and experts believe we are noticeably undercounting Covid-19 fatalities; I have yet to read a reputable source that claims the opposite.


When we look at the flu though, and they talk contagious and mortality - look at the CDC numbers. Presumed positives is like 25x what actual was (not real number but its MASSIVELY different). So standard testing is strange. I don't think we did this with the swine flu. They chalked mine up to everything else under the sun first.

I don't need a reputable doctor to tell me we are overcounting/undercounting. (first off nothing they said a month ago is true today anyways, no one knows definitively anything). BUT... If every month for 2 straight years we average 50k deaths a month, and now we average 53k deaths a month but 10k of those are from covid..... the math doesn't add up. The whole world didn't stop dying from everything else at a drastic rate.

Maybe it is a "factor" but we don't actually count flu, cold, sinus infection, etc deaths when a heart attack happens in other cases. We certainly don't presume positives either.

I agree things are counted wrong. My father in law passed away and they wrote "heart attack" on death certificate. No autopsy and they don't know.. that's just what they put due to underlying health and him having symptoms of one. But today if the SAME thing happened and he had a cough, he would be a covid death.


----------



## RandomElk16

brisket said:


> I'm with you. I'm not anti-vaccine, but I am against forced vaccinations. The problem is out of every crisis we loose freedoms. 9-11 brought us the Patriot Act. The Covid crisis could bring forced vaccinations among other things. People are so jacked on fear that they'll be clamoring for it.


Nothing solves a problem like forced pharmaceuticals.

I don't know why I am nervous, that's such a trustworthy industry with low profit margins and max efforts to be above compliance and produce only healthy products- I shouldn't stress. :mrgreen:


----------



## middlefork

I can see where an increase of negative tests could definitely throw off the narrative. But I guess I misunderstood the parameters of testing. I thought once supplies were available then open it up to every hypochondriac that thinks they have a symptom and get it out of the way.

And I have to agree, dead people are dead people. The only thing that makes sense is how many more.

And yes I know, simple facts for simple people. I am one.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> My understanding is that is the standard process for recording infectious diseases. Even when we look at the big numbers for seasonal flu those are estimates that include fatalities "burdened" by influenza even with underlying health issues.
> 
> Fact is most fatalities rely upon a judgement call from the medical team on the scene. Comparatively few deaths are actually studied for "actual" causes. (Another reason to believe we are possibly undercounting is even without the chaos of a pandemic more than a quarter of fatalities are incorrectly documented for cause of death)
> 
> Same goes for figures in heart disease, cancer, etc. Many health problems burden the body in certain ways but people often die from complications, consider HIV/AIDS. But we still count those in the figures for the disease believed to ultimately contribute to the death.
> 
> There is a lot of chatter in the country revolving around this issue about how they are listing deaths. But it's nothing new, unusual or conspiratorial. And it's not shocking when a disease that "preys" on high risk individuals with underlying health problems to have a decrease in deaths from those health problems. It's a logical outcome. The deaths at home currently unreported because of lack of testing will be more complicated to account for and will rely upon analysis later on. But indications are once we subtract known Covid-19 deaths we have still seen a spike in fatalities compared to historic norms (CDC data recently released). So most scientist and experts believe we are noticeably undercounting Covid-19 fatalities; I have yet to read a reputable source that claims the opposite.
> 
> 
> 
> When we look at the flu though, and they talk contagious and mortality - look at the CDC numbers. Presumed positives is like 25x what actual was (not real number but its MASSIVELY different). So standard testing is strange. I don't think we did this with the swine flu. They chalked mine up to everything else under the sun first.
> 
> I don't need a reputable doctor to tell me we are overcounting/undercounting. (first off nothing they said a month ago is true today anyways, no one knows definitively anything). BUT... If every month for 2 straight years we average 50k deaths a month, and now we average 53k deaths a month but 10k of those are from covid..... the math doesn't add up. The whole world didn't stop dying from everything else at a drastic rate.
> 
> Maybe it is a "factor" but we don't actually count flu, cold, sinus infection, etc deaths when a heart attack happens in other cases. We certainly don't presume positives either.
> 
> I agree things are counted wrong. My father in law passed away and they wrote "heart attack" on death certificate. No autopsy and they don't know.. that's just what they put due to underlying health and him having symptoms of one. But today if the SAME thing happened and he had a cough, he would be a covid death.
Click to expand...

We presume a lot without testing. But let's define that: the CDCs presumed positive is for patients showing symptoms of Covid-19 at a medical facility and is/has been tested without definitive results yet. Medical professionals don't wait for tests for many things as it can take days and time is of the essence in many viral infections.

And yes we do count seasonal influenza even with underlying and acute issues like heart attacks. Those are baked into the CDC fatality models released and edited every year. It's the "burden" portion of their model that leads to annual figures like 24-62k fatalities a year (estimate this year). If we combined every type of potential deaths statistic for each year they'd be well beyond actual deaths because they overlap in so many ways. On top of it influenza, and similar viruses, are not reportable fatality categories so we don't have exact figures, hence estimates (based upon many variables, including hospitalizations).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

I don't know where you are getting your general death statistics from but they are inaccurate and expose you would benefit from seeking out expert interpretation from reliable sources.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Plenty of articles have investigated and extrapolated from the above data in the last week. They all point to the exact opposite of what you are claiming.

First, if averaged over the entire year, we see roughly 8000 people die a day in the US. But those deaths are not distributed evenly over the year. We see peaks during the winter months and a noticeable regression to the middle of summer.

Second, the CDC link exposes that we are seeing an excess of deaths cleanly align with the global pandemic. As I hinted in an earlier post, when you deduct Covid-19 "confirmed" fatalities from those "excess" fatalities the last few months we still end up with a number greater than historical numbers would predict. Hence why experts and professionals are consistently stating we are undercounting Covid-19 cases.

Yes, models have been off. Yes, experts have been wrong. But that is the reality of educated projections. And being wrong is a big part of science (which is being weaponized by elements of society). Those realities don't undermine their credibility or their science if you understand how they derive those projections and the inherent limitations of them. Beyond the limitations of modeling (always contingent on data quantity and quality = constantly changing) scientists and experts have known plenty of facts with certainty for more than the last month. We've sequenced it's RNA, we've modeled it's structure (key for developing treatments and vaccines), we now have several treatment studies under our belts, etc.

I'm sorry if you have chosen not to trust the many experts and professionals dealing with this virus. Unfortunately the type of skepticism you are applying in your post actually ignores the empirical evidence they are readily providing. It's the reason your claims are running so contrary to actual science. Unfortunately the type of reasoning you have applied is all to prevelant in our society right now. I fear it's only going to get worse as we mitigate the disease and continue to avoid the maximum ranges of early models (that assumed no or unsuccessful mitigation).


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> I can see where an increase of negative tests could definitely throw off the narrative. But I guess I misunderstood the parameters of testing. I thought once supplies were available then open it up to every hypochondriac that thinks they have a symptom and get it out of the way.
> 
> And I have to agree, dead people are dead people. The only thing that makes sense is how many more.
> 
> And yes I know, simple facts for simple people. I am one.


The ultimate goal is to have broader testing. But statistical analysis requires consistency in the experimental design, hence the concern. But ultimately I'm less concerned with their testing asymptomatic people (since they seem to differentiate them in their data) and more concerned about how their symptomatic data remains an outlier still. Without an audit we can't know why but it's not a great sign they they ignored state protocol about who to test. Or that they have chosen such a different type of test.

I can understand your final statement. Despite Randomelk's statements, we have plenty of data showing the Covid-19 deaths are captured in the CDC analysis of "excess" deaths this season and that there are still extra, unaccounted for fatalities left over. Hence concerns about undercounting; last I saw was by roughly 10k but we are long way off from that being verified.


----------



## backcountry

backcountry said:


> We presume a lot without testing. But let's define that: the CDCs presumed positive is for patients showing symptoms of Covid-19 at a medical facility and is/has been tested without definitive results yet. Medical professionals don't wait for tests for many things as it can take days and time is of the essence in many viral infections.


I got the above definition wrong after going back to review the documents. I apologize for that error.

Here are the relevant documents for anyone wanting that level of detail:

https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.cste.org/resource/resmgr/2020ps/interim-20-id-01_covid-19.pdf

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/faq-surveillance.html

Here are the condensed criteria to meet "probable case" definitions (CDC Link):



> A probable case or death is defined by
> 
> Meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or
> 
> Meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or
> 
> Meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19.


Such standards have been around for a while, at least dating back to the 90s with measles. Here is a good article:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/ne...-ohio-what-probable-covid-19-case/5136196002/

It appears several states aren't documenting the different categories as well as the CDC and CSTE recommend.

Here is an article dealing with the very transparent process NY went through in adding presumptive cases to their roster:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

Ironically, given the reporting situation across the country, this exposes a major way in which we are likely under-reporting fatalities. If presumptive cases are a common epidemiological tool, as shown above they are, then we don't have a full picture when states don't report them.

Per anecdotes about why this hasn't been the case for individuals in the past: its likely those people didn't meet the presumptive criteria which often includes language about symptoms not being better explained by other diseases. For Covid-19, the full criteria laid out by CSTE for "clinical critera" include an "AND" which requires "no alternative more likely diagnosis." So not only do you have to have symptoms, it shouldn't be better explained by another diagnosis. So a simple cough before a person dies of a massive heartache wouldn't be accurately coded as Covid-19 related. Sadly that meme remains persistent.


----------



## Jedidiah

I'll admit I said what I said earlier to inflame the antivax dudes. I actually stayed out of this thread 100% until someone said something about "all kinds of strange things" in vaccines. 

Look, the people pushing the antivax agenda are insane. Vaccines are just dead and weakened viruses with some antibodies to give you a jumpstart on combating a disease. The chemicals are just there to preserve and enable the assimilation of the combined examples of virus cells and antibodies. There isn't any mind control going on, no one is trying to weaken you. It's literally just giving your immune system an example of what to do to fight a disease.

As far as mind control goes, no one cares. How do you think the government is going to profit from telling Joe Six-Pack what to do? One day the flu vaccine is going to make us all execute Order 66 or something? We're all exceptionally well taken care of compared to any average person from 150 years ago and then on into all the recorded millennia of human history. It's a pretty easy system to run, no one needs a vaccine to tell a dude what brand of cigarettes to buy or whatever people think it's going to do.


----------



## RedSon

I am worried. Because one of my friends is at the hospital right now. She has corona. Hope she will survive...


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

Sorry to hear about your friend I hope she's going to be alright. Maybe you shouldn't be on here listening to internet doctors.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I'm sorry if you have chosen not to trust the many experts and professionals dealing with this virus. Unfortunately the type of skepticism you are applying in your post actually ignores the empirical evidence they are readily providing. It's the reason your claims are running so contrary to actual science. Unfortunately the type of reasoning you have applied is all to prevelant in our society right now. I fear it's only going to get worse as we mitigate the disease and continue to avoid the maximum ranges of early models (that assumed no or unsuccessful mitigation).


Did you completely miss the part where I acknowledged deaths are up, said those aren't exact numbers, but also said deaths from other causes are down?

Your chart for NYC shows 7000 deaths, more than 6000 over count, the week ending April 11. Except I looked up that week specifically and the highest covid deaths in NYC that week were the 9th with 799 deaths. Every day was less than 800. 800x7= 5600.

At that point there were 8600 covid deaths. Chart you linked shows the week ending in the 4th for NYC 4700 over and on and on.....

So I guess my point that the data is all over the place, inconsistent, etc... wasn't wrong.

They aren't running contrary to science. Look up heart attack deaths in NY by week and come back here and tell me they haven't been down during the pandemic. Do the same with all death types.

As for experts... Dr Birx was in a conference saying not to touch your face, while touching her face and licking her fingers to turn pages. She also is the one who got up on a Monday saying she had a low fever the Saturday before. So yeah.... bit of a skeptic since they don't definitively know anything. They are trying to, but they don't.


----------



## RandomElk16

You can also pretend "flu" counts have been applied at this same level but they haven't. They are actively trying to find every single death that could have been anything related to covid. They don't do that with the flu. They don't go this far out of the way, and you know that. 


Here is my problem with the article you posted:

Three thousand more people died in New York City between March 11 and April 13 than would have been expected during the same time period in an ordinary year, Dr. Oxiris Barbot, the commissioner of the city Health Department.


Is that excluding the near 8K deaths from covid that they had already counted or not? I don't know how scientific counting excess deaths as covid are when you said it yourself that months can flux on deaths. They basically say anything over expected must be covid. 



The best thing is your links are showing that there is inconsistency in counts, and guessing and presuming in counts. Which was my entire point. That's not being a skeptic. They are worse at this than Florida counting votes.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sorry if you have chosen not to trust the many experts and professionals dealing with this virus. Unfortunately the type of skepticism you are applying in your post actually ignores the empirical evidence they are readily providing. It's the reason your claims are running so contrary to actual science. Unfortunately the type of reasoning you have applied is all to prevelant in our society right now. I fear it's only going to get worse as we mitigate the disease and continue to avoid the maximum ranges of early models (that assumed no or unsuccessful mitigation).
> 
> 
> 
> Did you completely miss the part where I acknowledged deaths are up, said those aren't exact numbers, but also said deaths from other causes are down?
> 
> Your chart for NYC shows 7000 deaths, more than 6000 over count, the week ending April 11. Except I looked up that week specifically and the highest covid deaths in NYC that week were the 9th with 799 deaths. Every day was less than 800. 800x7= 5600.
> 
> At that point there were 8600 covid deaths. Chart you linked shows the week ending in the 4th for NYC 4700 over and on and on.....
> 
> So I guess my point that the data is all over the place, inconsistent, etc... wasn't wrong.
> 
> They aren't running contrary to science. Look up heart attack deaths in NY by week and come back here and tell me they haven't been down during the pandemic. Do the same with all death types.
> 
> As for experts... Dr Birx was in a conference saying not to touch your face, while touching her face and licking her fingers to turn pages. She also is the one who got up on a Monday saying she had a low fever the Saturday before. So yeah.... bit of a skeptic since they don't definitively know anything. They are trying to, but they don't.
Click to expand...

Let's start with the low hanging fruit...

Her touching her face and your claim she said she had a low grade fever (I simply haven't fact checked it) have nothing to do with what they know scientifically. Going on the internet and saying "they don't definitively know anything" is patently false. I've highlighted a few ways already.

They also know data pretty well, about as well as you can expect for reporting in the middle of a pandemic.

As I said before, the type of skepticism you are applying isn't the type properly used with science. Skepticism as it relates to science is the emphasis of being informed by empirical data, which we have. Instead your posts expose a type of denialism, which ignores empirical fact.

If you were simply coming on the internet and saying "I'm worried about the discrepancies in the reporting from states" at least we could have a conversation about why that exists and evaluate that imperfection. Instead you claim "they don't definitively know anything" as supported by evidence of one of the experts touching their face? Skepticism in science is a process of seeking out empirical facts before accepting conclusions. Denialism uses a different approach to ignore the implications of said empirical facts.

We are seeing denialism run rampant now. Not most Americans but plenty of them.

Per actual numbers....please link the data you are using in a reply and I'll follow up to see how you are justifying your claims.

Until then, your stated this which isn't supported by data



> Many articles show NY is 3k or so above their expected death during a set time frame (duration of virus roughly Mar-Late April). At that time they had about 10K covid deaths, so expected death outside of covid was magically down 7k?


I've linked data that shows we are seeing the opposite, ie baseline deaths are being accounted for in addition to Covid-19 deaths.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> You can also pretend "flu" counts have been applied at this same level but they haven't. They are actively trying to find every single death that could have been anything related to covid. They don't do that with the flu. They don't go this far out of the way, and you know that.
> 
> Here is my problem with the article you posted:
> 
> Three thousand more people died in New York City between March 11 and April 13 than would have been expected during the same time period in an ordinary year, Dr. Oxiris Barbot, the commissioner of the city Health Department.
> 
> Is that excluding the near 8K deaths from covid that they had already counted or not? I don't know how scientific counting excess deaths as covid are when you said it yourself that months can flux on deaths. They basically say anything over expected must be covid.
> 
> The best thing is your links are showing that there is inconsistency in counts, and guessing and presuming in counts. Which was my entire point. That's not being a skeptic. They are worse at this than Florida counting votes.


Let's make it simple...You have no evidence for your claim about probable case listings.

On the other hand, I've actually linked agency and professional documentation of the standards for defining probable cases and they aren't what you claim.

If you would like to understand how seasonal influenza is accounted for you can start here. That's just a start, not the complete picture but it shows it's not what you think, especially since it's not a reportable type of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

You are correct, you are not showing skepticism as it applies to science. As I said in my previous post, your comments exhibit classic features of denialism.

I suggest you take the time to peruse reputable sources to discover the empirical realities of this pandemic. Yes, there are flaws but that is to be expected in the middle of a pandemic. Even in Utah we have seen day to day discrepancies that are part of the imperfect nature of epidemiological reporting, ie fitting data into artificial press release timeframes, backfilling, labs reporting test results at different rates, etc. But exploiting those reliable limitations rhetorically is not a form of healthy skepticism as it relates to science.

I make mistakes in these conversations, as evidenced in my previous reversal. I could have stood by my previous claim of the definition of "probable cases" but instead when I went back to QC my claim I found evidence I was wrong in my recollection and corrected it. In the face of empirical facts I changed my understanding and corrected my errors, that is how empiricism and skepticism are applied in science.

Here is a quick and dirty article, anything but exhaustive but illustrative of the issue at hand

https://futurism.com/science-denial-what-is-healthy-skepticism-in-science



> In short: Healthy skepticism demands evidence. Denialism rejects sound evidence when it is provided.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Let's make it simple...You have no evidence for your claim about probable case listings.
> 
> On the other hand, I've actually linked agency and professional documentation of the standards for defining probable cases and they aren't what you claim.
> 
> If you would like to understand how seasonal influenza is accounted for you can start here. That's just a start, not the complete picture but it shows it's not what you think, especially since it's not a reportable type of death.
> 
> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
> 
> You are correct, you are not showing skepticism as it applies to science. As I said in my previous post, your comments exhibit classic features of denialism.
> 
> I suggest you take the time to peruse reputable sources to discover the empirical realities of this pandemic. Yes, there are flaws but that is to be expected in the middle of a pandemic. Even in Utah we have seen day to day discrepancies that are part of the imperfect nature of epidemiological reporting, ie fitting data into artificial press release timeframes, backfilling, labs reporting test results at different rates, etc. But exploiting those reliable limitations rhetorically is not a form of healthy skepticism as it relates to science.
> 
> I make mistakes in these conversations, as evidenced in my previous reversal. I could have stood by my previous claim of the definition of "probable cases" but instead when I went back to QC my claim I found evidence I was wrong in my recollection and corrected it. In the face of empirical facts I changed my understanding and corrected my errors, that is how empiricism and skepticism are applied in science.
> 
> Here is a quick and dirty article, anything but exhaustive but illustrative of the issue at hand
> 
> https://futurism.com/science-denial-what-is-healthy-skepticism-in-science


It's not denialism. Its skepticism, which is fine.

You lean on believing what they say, while I lean on waiting for definitive proof. If the infection rate and mortality rates consistently change (its a pandemic as you said), then I don't take today's rates as gospel. When NY has a rate substantially different than ours, and when their "other" death rates are falling, I am skeptic. When you post an article in this thread about different testing agencies doing things different, and different test manufacturers having different results, I am skeptic.

You post stuff throughout this thread that is great. But it questions current affairs. Then the next week you post something that has a different hypothesis then the article the week before.

I feel like we are both actually agreeing.


We are in a pandemic, so things are evolving
Test manufacturers very in results
Test procedures very by company even within states - especially across nations
There are underlying diseases this seems to impact - they don't know to what effect
Rates change by the week
We don't know, and won't for a long time, the true impact

So when I say they don't definitively know - I mean the root DEFINITE which since those things above are either inconsistent or changing weekly, seems to fit.

Through this pandemic we have been told overly pessimistic and overly optimistic things throughout. From those "reputable sources". Those things have changed almost weekly for two straight months. How is something a "reputable source" when they disagree or change their view weekly?

So why should I be pessimistic, run with worse cases, and believe everything each time it comes out? Why should I trust their "scientific methods" when they aren't even uniform in a single state, let alone a nation? Your "method" for probable causes flat out said it's assuming all deaths above the norm rate are covid. That's pretty loose on being "scientific".

You keep wanting to think everyone is a bad guy. We both agree that things are likely different than what's reported. You just think it's worse, and I think the opposite.

But the fact we both agree things are not 100% accurate seems to confirm there are issues.


----------



## backcountry

Here is quality reporting on this very issue.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

You'll notice the links show deaths for NY during a 6 week period early in the outbreak there were 6 times historic norms/predictions for that time frame. Even for NY there remains an excess number of deaths after confirmed Covid-19 cases were deducted (NY was only reporting confirmed cases at that point).

The excess death figures are after deducting expected (projectioms from historic norms) fatalities from reportable causes, like heart attacks, etc.

Yes, this relies on modeling from historic data but it does every year. The practice here is common. But death statistics are capturing historic norms, Covid-19 fatalities and still having a remainder. There is no evidence they are sweeping other deaths under the rug or trying to force unrelated cases into the Covid-19 data. Quite the contrary, we have reason to believe we are undercounting both Covid-19 and other deaths that happened because the NY system was overwhelmed. The data has room for hypotheses for both to eventually be investigated.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Let's make it simple...You have no evidence for your claim about probable case listings.
> 
> On the other hand, I've actually linked agency and professional documentation of the standards for defining probable cases and they aren't what you claim.
> 
> If you would like to understand how seasonal influenza is accounted for you can start here. That's just a start, not the complete picture but it shows it's not what you think, especially since it's not a reportable type of death.
> 
> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
> 
> You are correct, you are not showing skepticism as it applies to science. As I said in my previous post, your comments exhibit classic features of denialism.
> 
> I suggest you take the time to peruse reputable sources to discover the empirical realities of this pandemic. Yes, there are flaws but that is to be expected in the middle of a pandemic. Even in Utah we have seen day to day discrepancies that are part of the imperfect nature of epidemiological reporting, ie fitting data into artificial press release timeframes, backfilling, labs reporting test results at different rates, etc. But exploiting those reliable limitations rhetorically is not a form of healthy skepticism as it relates to science.
> 
> I make mistakes in these conversations, as evidenced in my previous reversal. I could have stood by my previous claim of the definition of "probable cases" but instead when I went back to QC my claim I found evidence I was wrong in my recollection and corrected it. In the face of empirical facts I changed my understanding and corrected my errors, that is how empiricism and skepticism are applied in science.
> 
> Here is a quick and dirty article, anything but exhaustive but illustrative of the issue at hand
> 
> https://futurism.com/science-denial-what-is-healthy-skepticism-in-science
> 
> 
> 
> It's not denialism. Its skepticism, which is fine.
> 
> You lean on believing what they say, while I lean on waiting for definitive proof. If the infection rate and mortality rates consistently change (its a pandemic as you said), then I don't take today's rates as gospel. When NY has a rate substantially different than ours, and when their "other" death rates are falling, I am skeptic. When you post an article in this thread about different testing agencies doing things different, and different test manufacturers having different results, I am skeptic.
> 
> You post stuff throughout this thread that is great. But it questions current affairs. Then the next week you post something that has a different hypothesis then the article the week before.
> 
> I feel like we are both actually agreeing.
> 
> 
> We are in a pandemic, so things are evolving
> Test manufacturers very in results
> Test procedures very by company even within states - especially across nations
> There are underlying diseases this seems to impact - they don't know to what effect
> Rates change by the week
> We don't know, and won't for a long time, the true impact
> 
> So when I say they don't definitively know - I mean the root DEFINITE which since those things above are either inconsistent or changing weekly, seems to fit.
> 
> Through this pandemic we have been told overly pessimistic and overly optimistic things throughout. From those "reputable sources". Those things have changed almost weekly for two straight months. How is something a "reputable source" when they disagree or change their view weekly?
> 
> So why should I be pessimistic, run with worse cases, and believe everything each time it comes out? Why should I trust their "scientific methods" when they aren't even uniform in a single state, let alone a nation? Your "method" for probable causes flat out said it's assuming all deaths above the norm rate are covid. That's pretty loose on being "scientific".
> 
> You keep wanting to think everyone is a bad guy. We both agree that things are likely different than what's reported. You just think it's worse, and I think the opposite.
> 
> But the fact we both agree things are not 100% accurate seems to confirm there are issues.
Click to expand...

What you just wrote is denialism at it's core. It's clear as day.

I personally follow the experts and data with the belief the fatality count is undercounted. You are ignoring the empirical data. That is the difference between scientific skepticism and denialism.

I don't think anyone is a bad guy. I've made that clear. I think denialism is detrimental to society. But that is an issue of ideas and strategies not the people. There is a difference between criticizing ideas and assuming something about an individual sharing those ideas. It's a basic element of logical dialogue to differentiate that way (hence fallacies like ad hominems).

It is not my method of probable case counts. That is the empirical standard and I've supported it with documentation from both the CDC and primary agency dealing with this issue. Making it about me is a inaccurate deflection.

And the claim that the definitions have "flat out said it's assuming all deaths above the norm rate are covid" is factually incorrect. Sticking to that is untrue and misinformation. I've listed two sources and one criteria "flat out" requires ("AND") only listing it as the cause if no other disease matches the case. That is the exact opposite of what you are claiming.

*Yes, we both agree it's a pandemic that is evolving

*Yes, we both saw the article that shows some sites have data that are outliers. BUT, we diverge there. My concern and skepticism require I have actual empirical analysis (my call for audits in Utah case) before discounting the conclusions the state has drawn. They have empirical evidence. I do not. Therefore I can't discount the current established analyses. Your posts apply the opposite, ie denialism; you argument weights an unverified hunch over empirically supported analysis.

*Yes, rates can change by week and location. But I recognize that is inherent to the relevant statistics as it's built into the process. The various statistics on fatalities and infections are dynamic, not static. On the other hand, you use that known and baked in reality to rhetorically question the data. That is denialism, not skepticism. It appears your arguments are formed from a misunderstanding of scientific modeling and analysis of diseases like this.

*True, we both agree "we won't" know much for a long time. That's baked into the process. But we do know the actual definitions the agencies are using. We do have real data to look at analysis from. We know we have more than 60k+ fatalities in the US that meet the scientific/professional definitions of confirmed and probable cases (vast majority are confirmed). We know totals like confirmed and probable cases and confirmed hospitalizations. We don't know the actual total number of Covid-19 infections in the US and professionals are honest about that. Therefore we don't know actual infection rates, actual peak dates, or what the estimated fatality rate will be for historic comparisons. Those exact statistics aren't known and professionals have been honest about that. They model from data and do their best.

To the latter fact, here is a good link.

https://theweek.com/speedreads-amp/...t-flu-season-evidently-killed-15620-americans

We know Covid-19 can be claimed to have killed more than 60k Americans in a couple months (when using common, transparent professional standards). By comparison, we can only say roughly 15,600 (applying same standards as Covid-19) Americans have died from seasonal flu in the worst flu year out of the last six seasons.

I think many people are skeptical more because of the imperfect reporting and not the actual issues at hand. Just because the reporting about early models appeared overly confident doesn't mean those models were wrong. Just because Dr. Birx touched her face doesn't mean the experts don't have a pretty solid grasp of the disease given the stage of its spread we are in.

Weaponizing unknowns against actual empirical evidence, that isn't based upon that uncertainty, is a hallmark strategy of denialism.

*Most scientific analysis doesn't require what is likely an impossible standard of "100% accurate". That's why we have things like confidence intervals in statistical analysis, etc. That's another way we diverge.

PSS... definite and definitively are different. Definitively means "decisively and with authority; conclusively" which actually applied nicely to their knowledge. Findings from science are open to revision by design and are therefore rarely (if ever?) "definite" as in final. But revising scientific findings requires testing and analysis. It's not a shock that's happening with Covid-19, it's the actual process.


----------



## RandomElk16

Do you think we have a strong confidence interval?

Because all the articles you keep linking tell us we don't.....



It's not an unverified hunch that they are changing the way they count and using "over normal" for probably. YOU posted that information. So I deny the accuracy of current counts and tests, because you keep posting information explicitly disagreeing with their accuracy and recommending different approaches.


What exactly am I denying? You love the word, so what am I denying? I have asked questions.


----------



## RandomElk16

NY is over 8% mortality, almost 12% if you use their probable. The US is at 5.8%. Utah is at .9%. Global is at 7%.


Those numbers are all over the place. I'm not denying anything - but of course I am skeptical of data when the numbers in the US are below 1% up to 12%. New York is an outlier. So remove their data and what does the rest of the US look like? That's not my denying anything, backcountry. That's me asking questions and concluding we still really don't know anything except how to measure, and you yourself are posting articles saying we aren't even doing that consistent or accurately.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Do you think we have a strong confidence interval?
> 
> Because all the articles you keep linking tell us we don't.....
> 
> It's not an unverified hunch that they are changing the way they count and using "over normal" for probably. YOU posted that information. So I deny the accuracy of current counts and tests, because you keep posting information explicitly disagreeing with their accuracy and recommending different approaches.
> 
> What exactly am I denying? You love the word, so what am I denying? I have asked questions.


First, justify your claim that " using "over normal" for probably. YOU posted that information" as that's not supported at all by what I've posted. Show a link and support that claim, as that is part of the core to your argument. As it stands right now, as supported by documents and webpages I've linked, your claim is factually untrue.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> NY is over 8% mortality, almost 12% if you use their probable. The US is at 5.8%. Utah is at .9%. Global is at 7%.
> 
> Those numbers are all over the place. I'm not denying anything - but of course I am skeptical of data when the numbers in the US are below 1% up to 12%. New York is an outlier. So remove their data and what does the rest of the US look like? That's not my denying anything, backcountry. That's me asking questions and concluding we still really don't know anything except how to measure, and you yourself are posting articles saying we aren't even doing that consistent or accurately.


New York is not an outlier. We have multiple other locations with noticeably higher but localized fatality rates. We have Italy. Heck, when you dig into the data the fatality rates in elder Care facilities are astronomical. They are part of the expected ranges in a country with inconsistent health strategies.

But using variances in the disease's outcome and statistics to cast doubt on the data isn't logical. Those variances are expected because the fatality rate of a respiratory virus is conditional, not static. It's heavily affected by demographics and mitigation strategies. Your posts and arguments inherently ignore this well known fact. Those have been established realities for months.

You are also writing in a way that exposes a problematic and unsustainable approach scientifically. You recommend we remove the data (the empirical facts) because you are misinterpreting the statistics (the analysis). That's not how that works. The data is accurate to the definitions no matter how much you claim the opposite. Hence denialism. You are ignoring the empirical facts to prove a hunch. You are making claims not only unsupported by evidence but completely contrary to it.

I get you misapply the variances in the statistics (the analysis) in your arguments. I get you believe the models were wrong (they generally weren't). I get you don't believe "probable cases" are legit, they are as evidenced in the reputable resources I've linked. I get what you are saying. But the vast majority of your claims are founded on the elements of science denialism not scientific empiricism.

PS...my articles highlight it's likely an undercount given the methods. But that is baked into the methods so it's a fair hypothesis. But it's only a hypothesis. If you go back to my post with Utah testing link you'll notice I didn't use it to deny the validity of Utah analysis;. I did use it to raise questions but they remain that until there is a public audit (unlikely?). When I post stuff like that I intentionally use hedged language as those curiousities and questions do not meet the threshold required to revise the established empirical data and analysis of the state. I place my hunches as less certain than actual data and statistical analysis because of healthy skepticism. Trying to discount the data because of my hunch would be denialism.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> I get you believe the models were wrong (they generally weren't).


You sure? There were early models saying we would have over 1 million people die this year from COVID-19 in the United States.

I questioned those models openly on this very thread. They seem to be pretty wrong to me. But you're the expert, so let us know.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> You sure? There were early models saying we would have over 1 million people die this year from COVID-19 in the United States.
> 
> I questioned those models openly on this very thread. They seem to be pretty wrong to me. But you're the expert, so let us know.


Models are just approximations of reality. Its difficult to claim a model is "wrong" because they are very contextual, ie just a reflection of the data and assumptions built into them. The early ones with the frightening ranges were based on limited data (that we have since refined) and much less mitigation. That's why they aren't wrong, scientifically, ie the context of the conversation. They are just ways of presenting ideas and possibilities, not certainties. And those possibilities inherently change when data is revised or you change underlying assumptions: such as disease transmission methods, R0, mitigation techniques, etc. Its hard to judge a model off of information that wasn't known at the time.

Here is a link to the models the CDC tracks. They all use different assumptions:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html

Did we avoid the worst outcomes? Definitely. Were we certain to experience those ranges of infections and deaths even without mitigation? No, because we never have enough data this early on in a novel disease (ever?) to be that accurate. But data scientists, at least the dispassionate ones, didn't claim such outcomes were certain.

Were they reported by non-scientist without such context? Yes, definitely. And I think we are paying the consequences for our nation's poor science reporting as we speak.

I didn't see a single scientific model that said "we would have over 1 million people die" in the US. Few scientists use such language because it expresses a type of certainty modeling inherently lacks. Its why you hear significantly more hedged language, like "could" or "might". Ever hear Fauci say things like "almost certain"?

I saw a lot of modeling with upper and lower ranges that could happen. And thank goodness they didn't. I even think there were some "bad" models built around assumptions and datasets that were poorly constructed, hence my statement that they "generally" were not wrong. Just like the rest of science, you can do it wrong, and its always open to revision.

Never claimed to be an expert but enjoyed the petty jab. I still find it ironic how much your posts reflect the behavior you admonished just a few days ago.

*I was only quickly introduced to the "all models are wrong" approach in my education but its an interesting thought exercise. One of its possible conclusions, "Is the model illuminating and useful?", has informed my approach for a while. Ironically, as the line of questioning highlights, since models are approximations its a fair to conclude that it might not be possible to find a "correct" model either.


----------



## Catherder

A couple of random additions to the verbiage.

1. At this point, I'm not sure Back is arguing about models or definitions, but I figured I would put up this article that both discusses the utility and shortcomings of models and tracks several of the most commonly used ones.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

One quote I like that partially refutes the frequent internet critics and those that hold the models sacrosanct. "COVID-19 models aren't made to be unquestioned oracles. They're not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground."

2. A couple of pages ago, vaccinations were brought up. As I have repeatedly said on this thread, it is a matter of when, not if, medicine will develop one. We have developed other coronavirus vaccines for animals, we will get one for covid-19 too. Predictably, someone mentioned safety and another mentioned that many vaccines use dead or weakened/inactivated virus for the vaccine. While this is largely true, the most promising vaccines in the pipeline are working on including only what is called the "crown" protien, which covers the outermost layer of the virus and aids in getting into the host cell. What isn't included is the genetic material the virus uses to make copies of itself in the host cell and replicate. Therefore, these types of vaccines are much more safe. Think about is as presenting the immune system with a firearm with the action and the bullet removed as opposed to presenting the same weapon being fully loaded and ****ed, but with the safety on being presented.

That is assuming that the genetic code for general order 66 isn't put in with the crown protien by "They" and we will all turn into zombies upon Palpatines signal.


----------



## backcountry

Thx for the link. Catheder. I think you continue to be one of the most reliable and dispassionate voices on this thread.

Not to shockingly 538 presents the models better and more digestible than the CDC webpage I linked. 

To be honest, I think it's difficult to have a meaningful conversation about models and science without laying out definitions as well. I say that knowing full well I've botched definitions a few times in this thread.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> First, justify your claim that " using "over normal" for probably. YOU posted that information" as that's not supported at all by what I've posted. Show a link and support that claim, as that is part of the core to your argument. As it stands right now, as supported by documents and webpages I've linked, your claim is factually untrue.


The article YOU sent - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html States it many times. Here are two.

"*Epidemiologists who study such events said a complete account would include an analysis of the number of the excess deaths*.

Such an analysis can be "very hard to do" as an event is unfolding, said Sabrina McCormick, an associate professor of environmental and occupational health at George Washington University, who has studied excess deaths in heat waves. "This virus is moving so fast," she said.

But, she added, an *analysis of excess deaths is "the simplest and most straightforward way of measuring how many people have died from an extreme event*" and can offer a more accurate accounting of the actual impact than the daily death counts provided by officials."

This one you sent lays out criteria. If I am in an at risk group and had a cough, I can be marked as a probable death. If I traveled and have fever and sore throat, probable death. Contact with someone who had it and cough, probable death.

https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.cste.org/resource/resmgr/2020ps/interim-20-id-01_covid-19.pdf

No point in replying to your next post. I don't ignore empirical data, but even in the links you post they are going back and changing that data or arguing it's wrong. You post the Utah link but "only to raise question" and that's not denial. When I question it is. It's funny how that works.


----------



## RandomElk16

Catherder said:


> A couple of random additions to the verbiage.
> 
> 1. At this point, I'm not sure Back is arguing about models or definitions, but I figured I would put up this article that both discusses the utility and shortcomings of models and tracks several of the most commonly used ones.
> 
> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/
> 
> One quote I like that partially refutes the frequent internet critics and those that hold the models sacrosanct. "COVID-19 models aren't made to be unquestioned oracles. They're not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground."


I said him and I agree on this. The range of possibilities just about a month and a half ago had the US upwards of 3 million deaths. So being a little bit of a skeptic on things, and saying no one exactly knows, isn't that crazy of a take.

I'm not saying Oli Booger things. I am just not taking this information as permanent gospel. I don't err on the side of pessimist like him, that's all.


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> You sure? There were early models saying we would have over 1 million people die this year from COVID-19 in the United States.
> 
> I questioned those models openly on this very thread. They seem to be pretty wrong to me. But you're the expert, so let us know.


They went well over 1 million.

That's my point to him. Even the refined models had us substantially higher than where we are now.

I get how modeling works, but I think it's fair to say that these guys don't "know" since it changes every single week. Yeah yeah, empirical data. That still doesn't make me trust that you know what you are doing other than counting, and based on his own links they aren't even doing that right. There have still been articles arguing about mutation, ability to get it multiple times, animal transmissions, etc... From "experts".

When the WHO has tweeted false information (Human to human transmission not found), and so has the CDC.... It's fair to be a skeptic in my opinion.


----------



## shaner

If you think Covid-19 is bad, Covid-20 will scare the crap out of you!
(This is for Booger, who promised he was done with us and broke his word).


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> First, justify your claim that " using "over normal" for probably. YOU posted that information" as that's not supported at all by what I've posted. Show a link and support that claim, as that is part of the core to your argument. As it stands right now, as supported by documents and webpages I've linked, your claim is factually untrue.
> 
> 
> 
> The article YOU sent - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html States it many times. Here are two.
> 
> "*Epidemiologists who study such events said a complete account would include an analysis of the number of the excess deaths*.
> 
> Such an analysis can be "very hard to do" as an event is unfolding, said Sabrina McCormick, an associate professor of environmental and occupational health at George Washington University, who has studied excess deaths in heat waves. "This virus is moving so fast," she said.
> 
> But, she added, an *analysis of excess deaths is "the simplest and most straightforward way of measuring how many people have died from an extreme event*" and can offer a more accurate accounting of the actual impact than the daily death counts provided by officials."
> 
> This one you sent lays out criteria. If I am in an at risk group and had a cough, I can be marked as a probable death. If I traveled and have fever and sore throat, probable death. Contact with someone who had it and cough, probable death.
> 
> https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.cste.org/resource/resmgr/2020ps/interim-20-id-01_covid-19.pdf
> 
> No point in replying to your next post. I don't ignore empirical data, but even in the links you post they are going back and changing that data or arguing it's wrong. You post the Utah link but "only to raise question" and that's not denial. When I question it is. It's funny how that works.
Click to expand...




RandomElk16 said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> You sure? There were early models saying we would have over 1 million people die this year from COVID-19 in the United States.
> 
> I questioned those models openly on this very thread. They seem to be pretty wrong to me. But you're the expert, so let us know.
> 
> 
> 
> They went well over 1 million.
> 
> That's my point to him. Even the refined models had us substantially higher than where we are now.
> 
> I get how modeling works, but I think it's fair to say that these guys don't "know" since it changes every single week. Yeah yeah, empirical data. That still doesn't make me trust that you know what you are doing other than counting, and based on his own links they aren't even doing that right. There have still been articles arguing about mutation, ability to get it multiple times, animal transmissions, etc... From "experts".
> 
> When the WHO has tweeted false information (Human to human transmission not found), and so has the CDC.... It's fair to be a skeptic in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Actually my links and the quotes you used don't support your claim. It's clear your logic requires reading between the lines and not using what was actually said.

Yes. They are looking at excess deaths. But no, they are not counting all of those as probable cases. You still have no evidence for that claim. An "analysis of excess deaths" does not mean each of those will be considered Covid-19 cases. Experts and articles have consistently mentioned we don't know what those deaths were caused by and need to investigated/analyzed. Claiming otherwise is irrational.

You continue to ignore the clinical criteria for probable cases established under "AND" (which means must also be met) that "No alternative more likely diagnosis". You even ignore empirical facts in the evidence you used to support your false claim. Good gracious, you use every trick in the psuedoscience book, ie this time cherry-picking. This meme/conspiracy that launched a few weeks ago sure is as pernicious as it is persistent (it's truly hard to kill misinformation).

I mean your posts don't even exhibit basic understanding of science. You conflate analytical modeling with empirical facts. You use articles about researching mutations and different strains(RNA replication leads to a ton of errors, hence mutations, but we don't fully know what, if any, impact they have) as evidence to support your scientific denialism when it fact it shows the scientific process and community is working successfully. Your posts don't exhibit an understanding of why scientist don't jump to conclusions about things like immunity ("catch multiple times") or it's potential pathways and vectors ("animal transmission"). Your posts criticize how the maximum ranges of models in late February exceed current deaths, despite multiple people explaining it and providing links to experts (hello, the goal was to "flatten the curve").

To be very blunt, since you persist in your unsustainable argument, your posts lack basic elements of scientific literacy. One of my previous links has a qute that aplies well here: "



> Taken to the extreme, however, skepticism transforms into denial.
> 
> Science denial, says Dennis W.C. Liu from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, is the "systematic rejection of empirical evidence to avoid undesirable facts or conclusions."


You gloss over the fundamental difference in our approach when you make your claim about my questions being comparable to yours. Even if I have questions I fully recognize the validity of the empirical data and findings, you don't. It's that simple. You choose to value your hunch and skepticism over actual evidence. You "take skepticism to the extreme" and systematically reject evidence, ie fatality counts and the transparent definitions used to define them. That is the definition of scientific denialism. It doesn't get anymore obvious and simple.

It's disheartening how common this misapplied skepticism is. It's gotten so bad with this pandemic that even Nature ran an editorial with a subtitle that included the phrase "take up cudgels in the battle against bunk". You don't normally hear such blunt phrases from that respected journal.

But at least this pandemic had laid our nation's scientific illiteracy, psuedoscience and denialism bare for all to see. I don't have a clue how truly prevelant those issues are but it's common enough that we are seeing the most united and aggressive public assault against it in my (fallible) memory. I'll give the Bakersfield duo the credit for at least catalyzing something halfway decent from their junk press conference.

I guess alongside battling our "invisible enemy' we are also waging a war against junk science.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Models are just approximations of reality. Its difficult to claim a model is "wrong" because they are very contextual, ie just a reflection of the data and assumptions built into them.


So let me get this straight: I can create a model, put whatever junk I want into it and produce whatever result I want, and never be "wrong?" Just an approximation of reality?

I understand so much more clearly why you respond the way you do to people now. This has been most helpful.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Models are just approximations of reality. Its difficult to claim a model is "wrong" because they are very contextual, ie just a reflection of the data and assumptions built into them.
> 
> 
> 
> So let me get this straight: I can create a model, put whatever junk I want into it and produce whatever result I want, and never be "wrong?" Just an approximation of reality?
> 
> I understand so much more clearly why you respond the way you do to people now. This has been most helpful.
Click to expand...

Nope, that's a misrepresentation of my ideas. If only I had said the exact opposite in the very post you cherry-picked....

Wait ...



> I even think there were some "bad" models built around assumptions and datasets that were poorly constructed, hence my statement that they "generally" were not wrong. Just like the rest of science, you can do it wrong, and its always open to revision.


It's interesting that you chose to criticize my alleged interest in criticizing minutia. At least that level of criticism is actually what the other user wrote instead of the strawmen your posts normally battle.


----------



## Vanilla

If nobody posted on this thread except for backcountry, how long would it take for him to start arguing with himself on this topic? 

I bet Vegas would have the line at 3.5 days. I’d be tempted to take the under.

Dueces!


----------



## backcountry

Interesting strategy to deflect to personal attacks when I point out the logical fallacies in your posts. 

Feel free to admit the previous error you made if you'd like to still discuss the truth about models and their real limitations.


----------



## Catherder

shaner said:


> If you think Covid-19 is bad, Covid-20 will scare the crap out of you!
> (This is for Booger, who promised he was done with us and broke his word).


Oh, he'll be back. Posting here gives him respite from his work digging the bunker. I ,for one, kind of enjoy the "contributions" at this point (in a humorous sort of way).

One final comment on modeling and then I'll leave it to the rest of you to continue the debate. The comments are not directed at anyone in particular.

I will again start with the comment I posted earlier.

"COVID-19 models aren't made to be unquestioned oracles. They're not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the *range* of possibilities given the facts on the ground."

I would like to emphasize the word range. One may ask "how the heck can a model that includes or emphasizes a hypothetical worst case scenario be useful? It very likely will overestimate and lose credibility, right?" I will give you a (possibly) hypothetical example on its utility.

It is mid March and Governor Herbert is meeting with his newly formed covid task force and Dr. Dunn, the state epidemiologist. Rudy Gobert just tested positive and the NBA has shut down. In front of him is the newly printed University of Washington model showing an exponential growth projection for Utah and the dire stats that have been exhaustively debated here. Herbert asks Dr. Dunn about the grim figures. Dr. Dunn explains that they are based on exponential growth and that is exactly what *is* happening in Italy at this moment. There is some evidence that intervention 
can change that trajectory but we don't know for sure. I recommend assertive action now. Governor Herbert agrees and institutes aggressive initial action and social distancing is started, schools close, churches close, and so forth.

Now, we move ahead 3 weeks. Utah has not shown any evidence of exponential growth after the initial several cases. The U of W model just revised their numbers downward, based on encouraging stats. Governor Herbert is meeting with Dr. Dunn and his team again. He says "team, I am getting ripped by the national media about not putting in a statewide shelter in place law. Mayor Mendenhall keep sniping at me about it as well." Some liberal commentators think I am irresponsible and are betting the state is going to turn into the next New York City. However, as explained by Dr. Dunn, our numbers look pretty good. What do you think? Well, they probably reviewed that the model was revised downward, based on favorable stats that showed our initial efforts were effective and they decided to stay the course.

Subsequent events have shown that they made the right call. Again, having a model with a plausible range of possibilities allows for informed policy and decision making, even though it does *not* necessarily allow for exact prophecy. And yes, the model makers are not idiots if they include that full range of realistic possibilities.


----------



## RandomElk16

Pretty sad to see the viral videos of how people are being treated during this. I have seen some awful stuff from NYC. The physical contact/excessive arrests for social distance violations are wild. 

Chicago's mayor says "don't act like a criminal" referring to going outside or we will throw you in jail -- does so with a fresh salon cut that she then defends. So basically, don't do the things you are allowed to do because you AREN'T a criminal - or you are now a criminal. 

New York kicked Samaritan's Purse field hospital out of Central Park because they are a christian org that doesn't believe in certain things - but they were willing to treat any race, gender, s.o., etc... on the front lines of the epicenter. A councilman pushed this, because who needs extra people saving lives in the city that is above hospital capacity?



The long lasting social impacts of this will be interesting. Both how we operate as civilians, and peoples views on various gov organizations. It certainly accelerated the evolution of businesses (work from home, moves to more online, social distance/cleaning at physical locations). Healthcare has long been reluctant to go to more video conference due to the fact that will open up tons of competition and realistically should lower price. I had two doctor appointments in April and the total time I spent on them was 40 minutes. No drive, no lobby, no waiting in the room, etc... It should have been less of a copay and I suspect that I have more options in the future for a lower payment. 


What I would love to see changed is for it to change people in the voting booths, especially on local levels. People's perspectives SHOULD be forever changed, but many won't. We will see.


----------



## Jedidiah

backcountry said:


> Interesting strategy to deflect to personal attacks when I point out the logical fallacies in your posts.


Are you new here? lol



RandomElk16 said:


> New York kicked Samaritan's Purse field hospital out of Central Park because they are a christian org that doesn't believe in certain things...


"certain things" = requiring their staff to sign a pledge rejecting same sex marriage. If you believe in it just say it instead of a vague phrase like "certain things". The worst that can happen is that people take exception, which is kind of fun.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> Are you new here? lol
> 
> "certain things" = requiring their staff to sign a pledge rejecting same sex marriage. If you believe in it just say it instead of a vague phrase like "certain things". The worst that can happen is that people take exception, which is kind of fun.


I didn't say what I do or don't believe. Nor did I want to dig into the politics/religious beliefs on this thread.

I find it odd that the city with more deaths than most countries rejects help from any charitable organization willing to be face to face with sick folks, and help any of them.

Can't be on TV talking about not getting enough help when you are kicking people out. I'm sure the people who are sick and dying don't care who is helping try and save lives.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Jedidiah said:
> 
> 
> 
> Are you new here? lol
> 
> "certain things" = requiring their staff to sign a pledge rejecting same sex marriage. If you believe in it just say it instead of a vague phrase like "certain things". The worst that can happen is that people take exception, which is kind of fun.
> 
> 
> 
> I didn't say what I do or don't believe. Nor did I want to dig into the politics/religious beliefs on this thread.
> 
> I find it odd that the city with more deaths than most countries rejects help from any charitable organization willing to be face to face with sick folks, and help any of them.
> 
> Can't be on TV talking about not getting enough help when you are kicking people out. I'm sure the people who are sick and dying don't care who is helping try and save lives.
Click to expand...

New York City is no longer above capacity if I understand correctly and only asked Samiritan's Purse to leave given that fact. They didn't stop accepting new patients until today and won't fully close down until they are finished with the half dozen remaining. Even then the city is still accepting the help of its staff.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

It doesn't seem to actually have happened the way you are describing. New York took their help for roughly six weeks.

Your original comment about the hospital was inherently political and religious. You were criticizing the local response to Graham's overt religious/political stances. The details of that a fair once you put the argument on the table. (I'm not touching that one other than to highlight the apparent inaccuracies).


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> New York City is no longer above capacity if I understand correctly and only asked Samiritan's Purse to leave given that fact. They didn't stop accepting new patients until today and won't fully close down until they are finished with the half dozen remaining. Even then the city is still accepting the help of its staff.
> 
> https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
> 
> It doesn't seem to actually have happened the way you are describing. New York took their help for roughly six weeks.
> 
> Your original comment about the hospital was inherently political and religious. You were criticizing the local response to Graham's overt religious/political stances. The details of that a fair once you put the argument on the table. (I'm not touching that one other than to highlight the apparent inaccuracies).


And queue backcountry arguing for no other reason than to hear himself talk and attempt to make something deep that really isn't.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/corey...am-of-samaritans-purse-which-only-helped-nyc/

Glad to hear New York no longer needs help.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> New York City is no longer above capacity if I understand correctly and only asked Samiritan's Purse to leave given that fact. They didn't stop accepting new patients until today and won't fully close down until they are finished with the half dozen remaining. Even then the city is still accepting the help of its staff.
> 
> https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
> 
> It doesn't seem to actually have happened the way you are describing. New York took their help for roughly six weeks.
> 
> Your original comment about the hospital was inherently political and religious. You were criticizing the local response to Graham's overt religious/political stances. The details of that a fair once you put the argument on the table. (I'm not touching that one other than to highlight the apparent inaccuracies).
> 
> 
> 
> And queue backcountry arguing for no other reason than to hear himself talk and attempt to make something deep that really isn't.
> 
> https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/corey...am-of-samaritans-purse-which-only-helped-nyc/
> 
> Glad to hear New York no longer needs help.
Click to expand...

No one said New York doesn't need help; quite the contrary I said they were still accepting Samiritan's staffing as aid. Once again your post misrepresents the truth.

Is your strategy to also go personal when someone points out misinformation in your posts?

*New York Post is one of the most sensationalistic media organizations in the nation. Their political bias isn't subtle. Plus, it's difficult to call their offer selfless (as the article did) when they held a fundraising oriented sermon next to the medical tents. Linking the New York Post compared to linking actual data gives away a lot about your sourcing.

*PSS... your original post mentioned voting and railed against Chicago's mayor. Makes comments about politics a bit hypocritical.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> No one said New York doesn't need help; quite the contrary I said they were still accepting Samiritan's staffing as aid. Once again your post misrepresents the truth.
> 
> Is your strategy to also go personal when someone points out misinformation in your posts?
> 
> *New York Post is one of the most sensationalistic media organizations in the nation. Their political bias isn't subtle. Plus, it's difficult to call their offer selfless (as the article did) when they held a fundraising oriented sermon next to the medical tents. Linking the New York Post compared to linking actual data gives away a lot about your sourcing.
> 
> *PSS... your original post mentioned voting and railed against Chicago's mayor. Makes comments about politics a bit hypocritical.


Yet you continuously link the NYT as your sources... they aren't bias at all are they :mrgreen:

I don't even know what you are arguing about at this point. You just argue with everyone who doesn't 100% align with you. If you can tell me that the Mayor, city council, and other leaders didn't say what they said about them, great. If you can tell me the chicago mayor didn't say what she said and also go get a haircut, great. If you can tell me all the viral videos of people being body slammed in NY are fake, go for it.

Otherwise, you 100% can gain the willpower to scroll past one of my posts without having to hear yourself talk.

PS, even though NBC is also trash:

NBC New York's Melissa Russo tweeted "Source tells me a decision was made to sever ties after controversy over the group's religious views on the LGBTQ community caused concerns in NY. They treated 315 patients and were down to 8 by Friday."

I know you have all the ties and sources in the country though so I am sure there is 0 correlation. I haven't seen a single article saying the city was accepting Samaritans staffing. I would ask if you just assumed that but I honestly don't care.


----------



## Vanilla

This is the best thing I've seen on the corona front in weeks.


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> This is the best thing I've seen on the corona front in weeks.


A few artists have been releasing some amazing music during this.

Luke has done some awesome stuff the last few weeks. Check out "Used To Wish I Was"


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> I know you have all the ties and sources in the country though so I am sure there is 0 correlation. I haven't seen a single article saying the city was accepting Samaritans staffing. I would ask if you just assumed that but I honestly don't care.


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...fter-councilman-called-on-group-to-leave-city

A source from the right.

Appreciate the doubling down in personal attacks. It proves my hypothesis.

My goal has always been transparent. I point out blatant misinformation in posts used to "prove" flawed arguments.

Yes, I'll link a Pulitzer winning source any day over a rag like the New York Post. I mean your linked article stated "But that wasn't enough to cause some local politicians to put aside their own lefty prejudices and zeal for smoking out religious-conservative bogeymen". It's not just bias or sensationalism alone that make the New Post the darling of far right fear mongering; It's the entire gestalt of not even trying to abide by basic journalistic integrity.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...fter-councilman-called-on-group-to-leave-city
> 
> A source from the right.
> 
> Appreciate the doubling down in personal attacks. It proves my hypothesis.
> 
> My goal has always been transparent. I point out blatant misinformation in posts used to "prove" flawed arguments.
> 
> Yes, I'll link a Pulitzer winning source any day over a rag like the New York Post. I mean your linked article stated "But that wasn't enough to cause some local politicians to put aside their own lefty prejudices and zeal for smoking out religious-conservative bogeymen". It's not just bias or sensationalism alone that make the New Post the darling of far right fear mongering; It's the entire gestalt of not even trying to abide by basic journalistic integrity.


Your article you posted says exactly what I have been saying.... but ok.

Again - I don't care about the post. It laid out a timeline you can't dispute. Your article literally agrees. So does NBC and a bunch of others.

There isn't a flawed argument - you are wrong and will try and make it seem scientific or personal ignorance that others disagree with you. Yet, you are wrong. There is no blatant misinformation. The Mayor, councilmen, senator etc... all were very direct in their feelings about the group. Period.

You are choosing a journalism argument when there isn't one to be had - I think most of them are partisan quacks too. Starting with the New York Times that you always post (maybe starting with WAPO). But you can't dispute any of what I said. It's hilarious you just reach around looking for an argument :mrgreen:


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> It's hilarious you just reach around looking for an argument :mrgreen:


Such a vile personal attack!!!!


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Your article you posted says exactly what I have been saying.... but ok.


Actually, it exposes they are still accepting help from 40 staff which is not what you said at all.



> Again - I don't care about the post. It laid out a timeline you can't dispute. Your article literally agrees. So does NBC and a bunch of others.
> 
> There isn't a flawed argument - you are wrong and will try and make it seem scientific or personal ignorance that others disagree with you. Yet, you are wrong. There is no blatant misinformation. The Mayor, councilmen, senator etc... all were very direct in their feelings about the group. Period.


Once again untrue and not an honest reflection of your original post and argument. Here is a reminder of your own concluding sentence to the point you previously made about NYC:



> A councilman pushed this, because who needs extra people saving lives in the city that is above hospital capacity?


The Samiritan's are closing down, at the city's behest, after NYC was no longer above hospital capacity (see .gov link I previously provided). It's a different timeline and reality than you claimed. You then ended with another mistruth in response to that information:



> Glad to hear New York no longer needs help.


For which I provided a link proving the opposite, ie they are still taking Samiritan's help. (Washington Examiner article)



> You are choosing a journalism argument when there isn't one to be had - I think most of them are partisan quacks too. Starting with the New York Times that you always post (maybe starting with WAPO). But you can't dispute any of what I said. It's hilarious you just reach around looking for an argument


I've successfully laid out the misinformation in your claims multiple times, like above. I literally disputed what you state and use facts against your empty rhetoric.

I don't have to search for an argument when your posts are constantly false: NYC turning down their help when past capacity; NY is an outlier; etc.

Did you mean "partisan hacks"? It's actually a fair and factually true statement (journalisic argument) that NYTimes is a Pulitzer Prize winning organization. They just won another. It's the highest honor in the field. Comparing the NYTimes, which does have bias and I never claimed they didn't, to a literal tabloid like the New York Post is an argument untethered from a platform of media literacy.

I enjoy the free entertainment of you constantly going personal after I easily document the falsities in your posts.

*PS...go back and read my responses, you'll notice I never questioned the well known fact that some of the city's reps openly criticized Samiritan's practices and allowing them to operate.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Actually, it exposes they are still accepting help from 40 staff which is not what you said at all.
> 
> Once again untrue and not an honest reflection of your original post and argument. Here is a reminder of your own concluding sentence to the point you previously made about NYC:
> 
> The Samiritan's are closing down, at the city's behest, after NYC was no longer above hospital capacity (see .gov link I previously provided). It's a different timeline and reality than you claimed. You then ended with another mistruth in response to that information:
> 
> For which I provided a link proving the opposite, ie they are still taking Samiritan's help. (Washington Examiner article)
> 
> I've successfully laid out the misinformation in your claims multiple times, like above. I literally disputed what you state and use facts against your empty rhetoric.
> 
> I don't have to search for an argument when your posts are constantly false: NYC turning down their help when past capacity; NY is an outlier; etc.
> 
> Did you mean "partisan hacks"? It's actually a fair and factually true statement (journalisic argument) that NYTimes is a Pulitzer Prize winning organization. They just won another. It's the highest honor in the field. Comparing the NYTimes, which does have bias and I never claimed they didn't, to a literal tabloid like the New York Post is an argument untethered from a platform of media literacy.
> 
> I enjoy the free entertainment of you constantly going personal after I easily document the falsities in your posts.
> 
> *PS...go back and read my responses, you'll notice I never questioned the well known fact that some of the city's reps openly criticized Samiritan's practices and allowing them to operate.


Lol.. Lets attach a piece from NBC:









"Source tells me a *decision was made to sever ties after controversy over the group's religious views* on the LGBTQ community caused concerns in NY."

About the Author, who said this had to do with their views:

"Melissa Russo is NBC 4 New York's *award-winning* government affairs reporter. As an expert in local policy and politics with *unmatched sources*, Russo is often first to break major stories on her beat.

Russo is also a member of the NBC 4 New York I-Team, whose recent investigations have prompted major changes in government policy."

I mean, she has a poli-sci degree and has reported on politics in NY for 22 years. She also tweeted exactly what I said. But I am sure she isn't credible. I should listen to the guy who is roughly 2,351.4 miles away using google.

Also, the city isn't "accepting volunteers", Mount Sinai is continuing their criticized relationship and can do so as they please. Gov was able to control the park, not the hospital.

Let's look to the Senators thoughts on those volunteers:

State Senator Brad Hoylman told NBC New York approximately 40 Samaritan's Purse staffers will stay within the Mount Sinai system, redeployed to Beth Israel Hospital.

"I was told by Mount Sinai yesterday that Samaritan's Purse will be relocating from Central Park to a floor of Mount Sinai Beth Israel hospital on 17th Street in my senate district. *I expressed opposition* to the hospital's continued relationship with the homophobic Franklin Graham I have a question why they continue to support one another. I'm afraid the consequences of this poisonous relationship will linger."

Yep, sounds like he is excited to have their help.

This all proves you wrong but can't wait for you to ignore it. You haven't easily documented anything. You just stick on the NYPost article even though I don't care about them or disagree with your assessment. The key pieces in their are about the Mayor, 4 councilmen, and Senators statements. You can validate them on any site you want.

I only go "personal" saying you love to argue and hear yourself talk. Everything I put in this post alone proves my original post true, but you won't accept that

Pretty sure this is a mic drop on this subject - don't expect a reply but I know you will have one (despite saying you accept information and adapt - I'm not quoting you but concluding what you have inferred).


----------



## RandomElk16

Oh and the New York Times literally made a "White House Projection" their front page today... dig into the validity of that story. 

Defending the Times tells us all we need to know. If you don't think they have been partisan or made blunders over the last 3 years... Well that's your choice.


----------



## Jedidiah

Well I for one am glad to see someone better equipped than myself calling out the "well if you don't agree with me I'm going to call you a poopoohead with no basis for my arguments" strategy.

What do you guys think is going to happen in the fall? I haven't seen a lot of predictions on that, but it worries me more than anything that's going on right now due to the fact that the Spanish Flu really killed its millions in the fall of 1918. On one hand we won't have the massive crowding and outright stupid behavior that caused the flu to run rampant but on the other hand we have folks walking around with COVID-19 right now that won't show symptoms for a week or more, if ever.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> Well I for one am glad to see someone better equipped than myself calling out the "well if you don't agree with me I'm going to call you a poopoohead with no basis for my arguments" strategy.
> 
> What do you guys think is going to happen in the fall? I haven't seen a lot of predictions on that, but it worries me more than anything that's going on right now due to the fact that the Spanish Flu really killed its millions in the fall of 1918. On one hand we won't have the massive crowding and outright stupid behavior that caused the flu to run rampant but on the other hand we have folks walking around with COVID-19 right now that won't show symptoms for a week or more, if ever.


Who knows. Virus tend to take advantage of the close proximity of people in the winter. The flu has been found to travel easier in low temp/low humidity conditions. Couple influenza and weaker immune systems together and Covid may love it. I don't know what data we have for environment (temp/humid) reactions for Covid.

My hope would be that businesses that can keep people at home and distanced do so in the winter. My work is looking at doing this for the long haul - we were prepared and are finding the business advantages to it. I recently hired 10 more people and was able to look anywhere in the US.

I can just imagine a packed NY subway in the cold though. Homeless people have a high rate of at-risk (age/health factors) and fill subways and homeless shelters more in the cold too. They could see this all over again. I don't know if things will be "worse", but with those elements and a relaxed mentality they could be. I lean on the side of optimism with this but knowing humans and our short term memory, we could position ourselves poorly headed into winter.


----------



## DallanC

Jedidiah said:


> What do you guys think is going to happen in the fall? I haven't seen a lot of predictions on that, but it worries me more than anything that's going on right now due to the fact that the Spanish Flu really killed its millions in the fall of 1918.


The virus will come back no doubt, and be much worse. The 2nd wave of the Spanish Flu killed more than the first wave. Covid19 will be the same, it will be with us until a vaccine is hopefully created, or most people build up an immunity. Hopefully with the "curve flattened", hospitals can get some time to get more supplies lined up for the resurgence.

What will be worse however is the state of the populace: rising unemployment, bankruptcy's, foreclosures, homelessness, collapsing oil industry etc etc. They wont be prepared to endure this well. 29% of households had less than $1,000 in savings late last year.

What is really scary is diminishing food sources (happening now, the run on meat items has begun with stores limiting items). With processing plant closures, pigs are being killed and sent to landfills. Farmers are plowing produce into the ground vs harvesting. Dairy's are dumping milk and killing cows to reduce feed costs. We've lost the ability to quickly recover at this moment, as it takes time to raise new pigs, grow more dairy cows, raise produce etc etc.

Poaching will become huge this fall if meat remains scarce in stores.

As bad as it has been, its the prelude to whats coming. We get a brief respite over the next few months to prepare so get those gardens in and a flock of chickens raised up.

Best of luck to you all.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Actually, it exposes they are still accepting help from 40 staff which is not what you said at all.
> 
> Once again untrue and not an honest reflection of your original post and argument. Here is a reminder of your own concluding sentence to the point you previously made about NYC:
> 
> The Samiritan's are closing down, at the city's behest, after NYC was no longer above hospital capacity (see .gov link I previously provided). It's a different timeline and reality than you claimed. You then ended with another mistruth in response to that information:
> 
> For which I provided a link proving the opposite, ie they are still taking Samiritan's help. (Washington Examiner article)
> 
> I've successfully laid out the misinformation in your claims multiple times, like above. I literally disputed what you state and use facts against your empty rhetoric.
> 
> I don't have to search for an argument when your posts are constantly false: NYC turning down their help when past capacity; NY is an outlier; etc.
> 
> Did you mean "partisan hacks"? It's actually a fair and factually true statement (journalisic argument) that NYTimes is a Pulitzer Prize winning organization. They just won another. It's the highest honor in the field. Comparing the NYTimes, which does have bias and I never claimed they didn't, to a literal tabloid like the New York Post is an argument untethered from a platform of media literacy.
> 
> I enjoy the free entertainment of you constantly going personal after I easily document the falsities in your posts.
> 
> *PS...go back and read my responses, you'll notice I never questioned the well known fact that some of the city's reps openly criticized Samiritan's practices and allowing them to operate.
> 
> 
> 
> Lol.. Lets attach a piece from NBC:
> 
> View attachment 141431
> 
> 
> "Source tells me a *decision was made to sever ties after controversy over the group's religious views* on the LGBTQ community caused concerns in NY."
> 
> About the Author, who said this had to do with their views:
> 
> "Melissa Russo is NBC 4 New York's *award-winning* government affairs reporter. As an expert in local policy and politics with *unmatched sources*, Russo is often first to break major stories on her beat.
> 
> Russo is also a member of the NBC 4 New York I-Team, whose recent investigations have prompted major changes in government policy."
> 
> I mean, she has a poli-sci degree and has reported on politics in NY for 22 years. She also tweeted exactly what I said. But I am sure she isn't credible. I should listen to the guy who is roughly 2,351.4 miles away using google.
> 
> Also, the city isn't "accepting volunteers", Mount Sinai is continuing their criticized relationship and can do so as they please. Gov was able to control the park, not the hospital.
> 
> Let's look to the Senators thoughts on those volunteers:
> 
> State Senator Brad Hoylman told NBC New York approximately 40 Samaritan's Purse staffers will stay within the Mount Sinai system, redeployed to Beth Israel Hospital.
> 
> "I was told by Mount Sinai yesterday that Samaritan's Purse will be relocating from Central Park to a floor of Mount Sinai Beth Israel hospital on 17th Street in my senate district. *I expressed opposition* to the hospital's continued relationship with the homophobic Franklin Graham I have a question why they continue to support one another. I'm afraid the consequences of this poisonous relationship will linger."
> 
> Yep, sounds like he is excited to have their help.
> 
> This all proves you wrong but can't wait for you to ignore it. You haven't easily documented anything. You just stick on the NYPost article even though I don't care about them or disagree with your assessment. The key pieces in their are about the Mayor, 4 councilmen, and Senators statements. You can validate them on any site you want.
> 
> I only go "personal" saying you love to argue and hear yourself talk. Everything I put in this post alone proves my original post true, but you won't accept that
> 
> Pretty sure this is a mic drop on this subject - don't expect a reply but I know you will have one (despite saying you accept information and adapt - I'm not quoting you but concluding what you have inferred).
Click to expand...

You are going to mic drop off of a strawman? The only thing you proved was never questioned, ie that there were city reps who criticized the organization.

What was actually criticized in your post was the misinformation about timing and not accepting help. Samiritan's was there for more than 6 weeks and are still nursing the remaining patients. They city didn't dismiss them until after they were way past peak resource pressure. That is in direct opposition to your statement that



> because who needs extra people saving lives in the city that is above hospital capacity?


40 staff are still in the city helping despite your misrepresentation that



> Glad to hear New York no longer needs help.


You deflect from criticisms of those mistruths despite providing evidence multiple times. To reiterate, I never denied city politicians wanted to intervene. But they didn't succeed at getting Samiritan's to leave until way after the peak and it's staff remain in the city helping; all of those are the opposite of your statements and supported by evidence.

Your post has now contained multiple fallacies: moving the goalpost (trying to change the standard about Samiritan's continuee help) and strawman (the argument against a statement I never made). We can add those to your previous cherry picking or just outright attempt to ignore data/facts (science denialism). You source with tabloid rags. You insert overt politics despite claiming not wanting to discuss them.

And no, your personal attacks aren't limited in the way you claims. Here a few from you recently:

"It's hilarious you just reach around looking for an argument "

"Otherwise, you 100% can gain the willpower to scroll past one of my posts..."

Just a few. Going to the person instead of the arguments is inherently personal. You actually can't know my motivation beyond what I've been very forthright about (full frontal assault on misinformation, etc). It's a fallacy to go ad hominem and it's most often exposes ideas built on very weak foundations.

As well I thought it was ironic that you doubled down on another BS argument



> If you don't think they have been partisan or made blunders over the last 3 years... Well that's your choice


If only I had just said the opposite...



> Comparing the NYTimes, which does have bias and I never claimed they didn't


Yet another misrepresentation that litters your posts.


----------



## middlefork

I ran across this today and found it thought provoking.

"Perspective:

For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900. When you are 14, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday with 22 million people killed. Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until you are 20. Fifty million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 MILLION. When you're 29, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, global GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy. When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren’t even over the hill yet. When you're 41, the United States is fully pulled into WWII. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war and the Holocaust kills eleven million people, six million were Jews. At 50, the Korean War starts and five million perish. At 55 the Vietnam War begins, and it doesn’t end for 20 years. Four million people die in that conflict. Approaching your 62nd birthday you have the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, could well have ended. Great leaders prevented that from happening. As you turn 75, the Vietnam War finally ends. Think of everyone on the planet born in 1900. How do you survive all of that? A kid in 1985 didn’t think their 85 year old grandparent understood how hard school was. Yet those grandparents (and now great grandparents) survived through everything listed above.


Perspective is an amazing art. Let’s try and keep things in perspective. Let’s be smart, help each other out, and with a little time we will get through all of this as well.-- (author unknown)"


----------



## RandomElk16

Lol:

" You actually can't know my motivation beyond what I've been very forthright about "


This is the same guy who argued with me when I said I was being facetious on a post in March. You literally told me what my intentions were and that you didn't believe I was facetious. You argued it. But now you say I can't know your motivations? 

In your mind you were even right in that argument. 



You literally have done the very things your last post talked about. Its funny. 

You were wrong. You said they left because of the curve. An award winning political journalist of 22 years in New York said it was because of their beliefs, not because the curve. I think I will side with her on this one. Thanks.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Even then the city is still accepting the help of its staff.
> 
> It doesn't seem to actually have happened the way you are describing. New York took their help for roughly six weeks.


The "city" isn't "accepting the help". Think of your response if this was me arguing something you disagreed with. A senator bashing their ongoing relationship with this group isn't them accepting health. It's a hospital making it's own decisions, against many NYC political figures beliefs.

Also - you say in this it doesn't seem to happen the way I described. If we ignore for a minute the journalist proving you wrong there - It's still interesting you completely argued it was about the curve. If I did that, you would say it was flawed, lacking accuracy, missing information. You are denying their beliefs played any role in the decision. That goes against what you judge all of us for doing.

Could they afford to shut it down due to the curve? Sure. Did they want them out because of beliefs? Yes. But you won't admit that.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Lol:
> 
> " You actually can't know my motivation beyond what I've been very forthright about "
> 
> This is the same guy who argued with me when I said I was being facetious on a post in March. You literally told me what my intentions were and that you didn't believe I was facetious. You argued it. But now you say I can't know your motivations?
> 
> In your mind you were even right in that argument.
> 
> You literally have done the very things your last post talked about. Its funny.
> 
> You were wrong. You said they left because of the curve. An award winning political journalist of 22 years in New York said it was because of their beliefs, not because the curve. I think I will side with her on this one. Thanks.


Another misrepresentation? I never said they left "because of the curve". I did say



> New York City is no longer above capacity if I understand correctly and only asked Samiritan's Purse to leave given that fact


Very important grammatical difference between because and given in that argument. Because is an adverb that means "for the reason of" (ie root cause). I never made that argument. I did say "given" which is a preposition meaning "Considering; taking into account". Big difference there; my argument had remained about your incorrect timeline and that New York accepted help until they were no longer at risk of overrunning their hospital capacity.

Do you intentionally misrepresent people's ideas or is it carelessness? I sincerely can't know but either undermines your posts.

If you can show me with a link where I assumed your motivations I'll admit my error. I'm very consistent with that vulnerability. I undoubtedly make mistakes but I own them when pointed out.

But saying that "I don't believe" you were being facetious doesn't meet that threshold. I don't trust many people that regularly misrepresent information in their posts; that's my personal choice and a reflection of my values, not yours. And that's not remotely the same as as saying "you love to argue and hear yourself talk". There is a fundamental difference in language and logic between "I" statements about personal beliefs and "you" statements about assumed motivations.

If I crossed that line about your "facetious"ness than show me the link and quote and I'll sincerely apologize.

Are you willing to do the same about your errors and misrepresentations? It seems to me you have a few now. How about the ones I've pointed out multiple times or the fact that your quote about Mayor Lightfoot doesn't seem to be about "going outside" at all but about mass gatherings they've busted this week or that are planned for the near future?


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I sincerely do not believe you are being facetious
> 
> And it seems obvious to me you lack basic understanding of what certain biological terms mean.


Two things in one post that if were said to you, I believe you would take exception. That is an assumption and could be wrong.

My intent with my posts wasn't to misrepresent what you said. I simply didn't take the time to dig through pages and post a direct quote. The way I interpreted your argument was that they were leaving because the curve was calming and their help wasn't needed, and the city would gladly have their help elsewhere. It seemed to dismiss completely that their views were a factor and I was completely wrong with my point. I apologize if I misunderstood your intention.

My belief and point, based on NBC and multiple other articles, was that the city wanted them gone because of their beliefs and this was the soonest they were able to accomplish that. The city also didn't accept their volunteers, but actually still condemns Mount Sinai working with them. That is how I have understood the articles and the conclusion I have reached.

I don't actually care about this particular thing that much. It was a piece of a post of some random things I saw this week around Covid and a greater theme of curiosity of how the world will transition both in business, but also from a political standpoint, mainly SLG considerations. I do get frustrated that no matter what the post is, it feels like you come in high and mighty and argue no matter what was said. You do so by belittling the other person for not using the sources you like or being uneducated, in denial, and other terms. In this case, one snippit of my post was stuck to and argued in circles. There was no real means to an ends other than an attempt to say I misrepresented NYC or their intentions someway. It was just an odd thing to spend pages on. Then I send the first google article, because I am not going to do all the research and didn't feel I would need to defend a simple analysis this deep(and frankly didn't care about the subject matter that much - more cared that you wanted to argue), and it goes into my belief in journalistic integrity lol. It spiraled insane, which is why I say these personal things. Your intentions simply seem to be conflict based. Those are feelings, not for sure facts. That is my perception.

Last edit- As for your "consistent vulnerability" there are very few, if any, examples in 158 pages that is the case. Again, perception, but it doesn't seem you shift at all. Just argue and say your data and sources are superior while everyone else isn't.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> You can't have it both ways. So which is it:
> 
> 1) A "city" can "reject" help for a private hospital and therefore also "accept" it. My criticism stands.
> 
> OR
> 
> 2) A "city" can't "reject" help for a private hospital nor "accept" it. Your claim was inherently false by your own standards and any criticism is void given that fact.
> 
> Choose your own adventure but neither option bodes well for your statement in question.


3) A city can reject help that operates on city property (IE, Central Park).

That has to be approved(accepted) by the city and can be revoked (rejected) by the city.

In a private hospital, they can do neither.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I sincerely do not believe you are being facetious
> 
> And it seems obvious to me you lack basic understanding of what certain biological terms mean.
> 
> 
> 
> Two things in one post that if were said to you, I believe you would take exception. That is an assumption and could be wrong.
> 
> My intent with my posts wasn't to misrepresent what you said. I simply didn't take the time to dig through pages and post a direct quote. The way I interpreted your argument was that they were leaving because the curve was calming and their help wasn't needed, and the city would gladly have their help elsewhere. It seemed to dismiss completely that their views were a factor and I was completely wrong with my point. I apologize if I misunderstood your intention.
> 
> My belief and point, based on NBC and multiple other articles, was that the city wanted them gone because of their beliefs and this was the soonest they were able to accomplish that. The city also didn't accept their volunteers, but actually still condemns Mount Sinai working with them. That is how I have understood the articles and the conclusion I have reached.
> 
> I don't actually care about this particular thing that much. It was a piece of a post of some random things I saw this week around Covid and a greater theme of curiosity of how the world will transition both in business, but also from a political standpoint, mainly SLG considerations. I do get frustrated that no matter what the post is, it feels like you come in high and mighty and argue no matter what was said. You do so by belittling the other person for not using the sources you like or being uneducated, in denial, and other terms. In this case, one snippit of my post was stuck to and argued in circles. There was no real means to an ends other than an attempt to say I misrepresented NYC or their intentions someway. It was just an odd thing to spend pages on. Then I send the first google article, because I am not going to do all the research and didn't feel I would need to defend a simple analysis this deep(and frankly didn't care about the subject matter that much - more cared that you wanted to argue), and it goes into my belief in journalistic integrity lol. It spiraled insane, which is why I say these personal things. Your intentions simply seem to be conflict based. Those are feelings, not for sure facts. That is my perception.
> 
> Last edit- As for your "consistent vulnerability" there are very few, if any, examples in 158 pages that is the case. Again, perception, but it doesn't seem you shift at all. Just argue and say your data and sources are superior while everyone else isn't.
Click to expand...

First, you are the only other person on this thread I've seen expose "the vulnerability" I am discussing in your "last edit". The context of that matter, ie publicly admitting an error.

Thank you for the actual link to what you were referencing. That helps. The second part of it was harsh yet related explicitly, and justified in the following sentence, by the misconstruction of biological arguments. I can't remember the exact series of events nor am Interested in rehashing them but I get the sense we were similarly locking horns, as we are now.

Not to shockingly, I could be wordier but I'll leave it with the fact that I'll reflect on the rest of what you said. I've got projects on my plate this afternoon and need to move on myself.

*Last edit: I deleted my other comment while you were responding. Sorry. Given our timing it didn't seem necessary after the content of your previous post.


----------



## jimgrains51

Its getting worse around the world. Thankfully there are countries that show that the pandemic is controllable. I just wish things can go back to normal soon. So many thing that I planned on doing before the pandemic. I want to go back to metal detecting again. Its a really fun hobby. If anyone is planning on getting into the hobby after the pandemic, I recommend you click here for more information about metal detecting.


----------



## RandomElk16

jimgrains51 said:


> Its getting worse around the world. Thankfully there are countries that show that the pandemic is controllable. I just wish things can go back to normal soon. So many thing that I planned on doing before the pandemic. I want to go back to metal detecting again. Its a really fun hobby. If anyone is planning on getting into the hobby after the pandemic, I recommend you click here for more information about metal detecting.


Beat it Jim.


----------



## shaner

Why do you have to wait to go metal detecting?


----------



## Catherder

shaner said:


> Why do you have to wait to go metal detecting?


Maybe he could go over to Oli's with his metal detector and help him out by checking for underground metal pipes as Oli digs his bunker.


----------



## shaner

Oli....
He is way too busy eating his crow sandwich to be digging a bunker right now.


----------



## Kwalk3

shaner said:


> Oli....
> He is way too busy eating his crow sandwich to be digging a bunker right now.


Sounds delicious. Maybe I should ask him for the recipe. On second thought, I bet Goob has one posted here.


----------



## Jedidiah

https://utahwildlife.net/forum/26-recipes/166850-sparrow-surprise.html


----------



## Ray

I’m at the point where I’m just starting to live my life again. I wear a mask to be polite and keep my distance from the elderly as to not accidentally expose them but I’m honestly kinda over it.. 

I’m an account executive at a major healthcare company and deal with hospitals across the nation. Out of all of the clients I make contact with on a weekly basis (which is hundreds) only a couple have been hit hard. 

I know, I’m basing my decision off of anecdotal evidence but we all have to make our own decisions and do what’s right for ourselves. 

I’m not saying to go out to large gatherings or anything, all I’m saying is, I’m not sitting indoors anymore. 

“Give me liberty or give me death” - Patrick Henry


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

I was always taught to be patient when hunting if you want to win. I think we need to be the same with this virus and do everything we can to prevent more people from getting it and not just say "I'm done". Looking at the stats shows we are not. We just happen to live in a state that hasn't been hit too hard so lets please try to keep it that way.ainkiller: TOTP


----------



## DallanC

The whole point of the lock down was to lower the infection rate to allow hospitals to catch up on getting supplies, preparing for more patients etc etc. Luckily, for the most part this did happen, and will continue to happen over the summer. Hopefully, this preparation will be enough to face the inevitable "2nd wave" that will hit this fall.

The good thing, if there is a such a thing, is with increased testing its proving the virus is much more wide spread than thought. The death rate hasn't risen at the same rate as infections / recoveries. This means the overall death rate of the virus is sooooo much less than originally guestimated by the so called "experts". The people dying to Covid19 are by a VAST MAJORITY, are elderly people, most in end of life assisted living.

So if a person is high risk, they should continue to take care of themselves. But there is a tremendous number of people who are testing positive who had the virus and didnt even know it.

-DallanC


----------



## High Desert Elk

7MM RELOADED said:


> I was always taught to be patient when hunting if you want to win. I think we need to be the same with this virus and do everything we can to prevent more people from getting it and not just say "I'm done". Looking at the stats shows we are not. We just happen to live in a state that hasn't been hit too hard so lets please try to keep it that way.ainkiller: TOTP


The problem is, you can take these precautionary measures too far and for too long. If society isn't wise, a ridiculous face covering will be as common atire as a shirt or pair of shoes.


----------



## bowgy

Since this thread has 160 pages so far I thought some might be interested in my experience this past weekend.

My wife and I and my daughter and son in law from Provo drove over to Woodland Park Colorado Thursday and spent a few days there, also spent one day down in Golden at my niece's.

I had my face shield on so I could pull it over my face when needed but I was surprised to find that most of Colorado has a similar attitude as Southern Utah. Most don't wear any face coverings. It seems that the ski areas such as Vail, Copper Mountain, Breckenridge were more prone to wear face coverings but everywhere else it was about 1 in 8 to 10 wore face coverings. This was even in the Walmart at Woodland Park that we went to several times and it had a big sign at the entrance that face coverings were needed to enter.

One funny thing is in Parachute on the way home the guy between me and my son in law at a gas stating buying snacks had his face cover painters mask on the top of his head and the clerk, who just had his covering his mouth but not his nose, told him, "doesn't do you much good wearing it on your head" and my son in law replied to the clerk, " doesn't do much good not covering your nose does it", the clerk didn't like that much.

Most of the store clerks and food servers wore them but most of the customers did not.

We also went to Garden of the Gods by Colorado Springs and the same thing there, lot's of people and some even climbing and rappelling, very few wearing face shields but it was outdoors and people were spread out quite well.


----------



## High Desert Elk

So, for the ones in favor of face masks, what happens when you walk by someone who exhales and the majority of it lands on your clothes, you go home 20 min later - where you're safe - take off your mask and gloves, then touch your sleeve where the "stuff" landed after the non face shield guy breathed on you and you grab an apple and take a bite?

The quicker the exposure, the quicker herd immunity kicks in. That's science...


----------



## DallanC

High Desert Elk said:


> So, for the ones in favor of face masks, what happens when you walk by someone who exhales and the majority of it lands on your clothes, you go home 20 min later - where you're safe - take off your mask and gloves, then touch your sleeve where the "stuff" landed after the non face shield guy breathed on you and you grab an apple and take a bite?
> 
> The quicker the exposure, the quicker herd immunity kicks in. That's science...


I told my son to pretend the virus is "paint that never drys". It gets on your hand, whatever you touch gets the "paint". If someone touches that, they get the paint... etc etc. Was a good visualizer for him.

As for face masks: One problem is there is no "Standard" for home made face masks. Why do people assume the home made face mask you see someone wearing is actually working as a filter? Maybe they only had thin materials that dont actually filter anything. It gives a false sense of security, and I've noticed people wearing home made masks standign closer to people with masks... than people without masks. Ironic.

The government says N95 masks are whats needed to filter the virus (for the most part), and that wearing masks are to prevent a potentially sick person from spreading the virus to someone else. But... then they say, dont use N95s, save those for first responders. So people make masks that aren't N95 rated, but wear them expecting them to stop the virus? And way too many people are wearing N95s or other masks with the breathing valves... if wearing the mask is to prevent people from spreading it, the valve masks are worthless as a good sneeze or cough will go right out the valve.

Final note: I found it highly ironic at the store trying to get a mothers day card. People piling in shoulder to shoulder. Grabbing cards, reading them, putting them back. Others grabbing the previously touched cards, reading them and taking or putting them back. I made a commend to my son about the Corona-Cards and got some serious stink-eye from people around me who clearly hadnt thought about it. Kindof amusing.

-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

The vast majority of people have no idea what it takes to completely prevent exposure to this virus.

One only needs to look at the amount of health professional who are specifically trained to minimize the spread who have contracted the virus.

Face masks are nothing more than a visible sign of how much one has accepted the practice in order to shame others to believe the same way.

There is always risks in life. Do what you feel you need to do in order to minimize them.


----------



## DallanC

middlefork said:


> Face masks are nothing more than a visible sign of how much one has accepted the practice in order to shame others to believe the same way.


+1000

I know a person that literally calls our house about every other day to make sure we are wearing our masks, and freaks out if we are not. That person is developing a OCD mental issue over this ... and is now on hypertension medications and it seems to be getting worse.

I understand if a person feels at risk, and takes responsibility and action to protect themselves... but how do you get to the point you are cold-calling people up to berate them on the off chance they aren't wearing a mask?

*I DONT NEED TO WEAR A F'ing MASK IN MY OWN HOME*

-DallanC


----------



## KineKilla

middlefork said:


> Face masks are nothing more than a visible sign of how much one has accepted the practice in order to shame others to believe the same way.


Some stores "require" masks now so if I want to shop there, I wear one. I'm not sure if wearing the mask is a sign of weakness or paranoia or if not wearing the mask is just some people's way of refusing to conform and possibly admit their susceptibility to catching said illness.

I ask because I do not know...

If masks are useless against the contraction of a virus then why have surgeons, doctors, nurses, etc. always worn them during certain tasks? Or in other words...is the mask to protect the wearer or the people the wearer may infect?


----------



## RandomElk16

High Desert Elk said:


> So, for the ones in favor of face masks, what happens when you walk by someone who exhales and the majority of it lands on your clothes, you go home 20 min later - where you're safe - take off your mask and gloves, then touch your sleeve where the "stuff" landed after the non face shield guy breathed on you and you grab an apple and take a bite?
> 
> The quicker the exposure, the quicker herd immunity kicks in. That's science...


The thing is - Masks don't prevent you from getting it. They can help stop spreading it though.


----------



## High Desert Elk

What this has ultimately done is take away your ability to choose what is best for you under penalty of a citation or disciplinary action at work, in short, extortion.

It has created another way to shame somebody to comply with the mainstream belief.

My state has foolishly made it "mandatory for all essential business employees, no matter how large or small the business, to wear a face covering while conducting work related duties if you are in close proximity to someone else" beginning on Monday, May 11. The face covering can be as simple as a bandana or t-shirt material.

What is the difference between Friday at 4 pm and Monday morning at 8 am? Answer: nothing.


----------



## High Desert Elk

RandomElk16 said:


> The thing is - Masks don't prevent you from getting it. They can help stop spreading it though.


So can covering a cough or sneeze and washing your hands...


----------



## KineKilla

If wearing a mask can stop someone from spreading the disease then wearing one in public should be looked at as ME doing something to protect YOU. Pretty noble if that is truly the case. I don't want to catch it for sure, but I also do not want to be responsible for giving it to anyone else.

What I don't understand (amongst a million other things) is how a mask can stop cooties from getting out but not stop them from getting in. As I understand it, this virus is transmitted via droplets, not aerosolized. So, any item that can catch said droplets should in theory work. The mask material is not a one-way material is it?


----------



## High Desert Elk

So, in the name of nobility to not give it to anyone else, are you going to wear a mask and gloves every day for the rest of your life so you won't give the flu to someone 5 years from now? Because we do know the flu kills as well.

Just asking.

Reason I appear to be so resistive to the whole face covering arguement is does it really make sense, or, in a short amount a time, has society decided this helps it deal with a virus, mind you, that our species has been dealing with viruses for thousands of years? 

When you're born, you have zero immunity. It makes as much sense for everyone to wear a mask around an infant indefinitely to keep them safe.

However, conventional wisdom tells us it would wipe out humans because we cannot deal with anything...


----------



## Packout

Interesting video of a coughing simulation. I'd like to see what a cloth mask would do.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/05/04/cough-coronavirus-masks-kaye-pkg-vpx.cnn

I wear a mask when going to places that require it. I spent the night in the hospital with my son a month ago and they had me wear a little blue flimsy mask the whole time. 
I never took the recommendations as we are stopping the spread of the disease. I always thought we were supposed to be slowing the spread of the disease.


----------



## RandomElk16

KineKilla said:


> If wearing a mask can stop someone from spreading the disease then wearing one in public should be looked at as ME doing something to protect YOU. Pretty noble if that is truly the case. I don't want to catch it for sure, but I also do not want to be responsible for giving it to anyone else.
> 
> What I don't understand (amongst a million other things) is how a mask can stop cooties from getting out but not stop them from getting in. As I understand it, this virus is transmitted via droplets, not aerosolized. So, any item that can catch said droplets should in theory work. The mask material is not a one-way material is it?


The mask can stop droplets from getting in your nose and mouth.

Not your skin, ears, eyes, etc....

The droplets carrying the virus are often from a cough or sneeze, or just spit talking. Mask can catch those droplets leaving.

If I sneeze with no mask, and you have a mask but those droplets land in your eye or something... It doesn't matter.

So yeah, the mask can stop them coming in. But unless you are in a hazmat suit the rest of your body exists.

Sick but wearing a mask with no gloves, sweaty hands, touch something - someone else touches it.... Mask doesn't stop that either.


----------



## Vanilla

Packout said:


> I never took the recommendations as we are stopping the spread of the disease. I always thought we were supposed to be slowing the spread of the disease.


I think this is one thing that has turned the debate entirely the last few weeks, and has had the tendency to politicize this issue to some extent. There is a segment of our population that has bought into the idea that social distancing and shut downs are happening so we can eradicate The Corona. They preach this idea incessantly and shame anyone that is not willing to do whatever it takes to eradicate The Corona.

There is not a single credible health expert anywhere that has ever claimed these practices would eliminate the virus. However, we have a segment of the population that is claiming that is the goal and shaming anyone who won't get on board. That segment is growing in volume. This group is every bit as dangerous as the groups that are putting out misinformation about the virus on the other side of the debate.


----------



## RandomElk16

High Desert Elk said:


> So can covering a cough or sneeze and washing your hands...


Yeah, but that wasn't what we are talking about.

I am not saying I am pro mask, I am telling you the simple science behind the idea.

As for your comment about the flu and such - I hate when sick people refuse to use leave at work or go out and about. So yeah, if you have a cold or flu 5 years from now stay home, or wear a mask and gloves when you are out. Even if we only took precautions AFTER being symptomatic with the flu we could cut deaths down substantially. But people don't do that.

You are right, healthy people wearing masks 24/7 and immune systems, etc... doesn't seem like a long term solution. But I will say that in the future symptomatic people could be a hell of a lot smarter.


----------



## Vanilla

KineKilla said:


> If wearing a mask can stop someone from spreading the disease then wearing one in public should be looked at as ME doing something to protect YOU. Pretty noble if that is truly the case. I don't want to catch it for sure, but I also do not want to be responsible for giving it to anyone else.
> 
> What I don't understand (amongst a million other things) is how a mask can stop cooties from getting out but not stop them from getting in. As I understand it, this virus is transmitted via droplets, not aerosolized. So, any item that can catch said droplets should in theory work. The mask material is not a one-way material is it?


You have summarized my internal conflict on masks very well. There has been so much conflicting information out there, and even what is now finally settling as being widely accepted really doesn't do a great job of passing the logic test. I'll wear a mask to help others that are living in pure fear and anxiety right now feel a little better, but I don't believe that it is helping much at all without all the other recommendations that really do make a difference being in place. Unfortunately, I think the masks will make people feel the other stuff (hand washing, social distancing, etc) is not quite as necessary.

Quite the Catch 22. As with so much of this pandemic, there really aren't great answers on any side of it.


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## DallanC

Interesting. So a mask really just redirects the expulsion around a person vs directly in front of them. Sucks to be the next guy walking down the isle after the person 6ft in front of him coughed with or without a mask.


-DallanC


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## bowgy

Just a couple of thoughts

My sister sent me this: *Wearing a mask in public is an act of kindness and a sign of respect for the vulnerable. 
Like it or not!*

And,


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## High Desert Elk

Reducing the spread will not make it go away, that is true. The reality of it is to "reduce" the spread while we wait on a vaccine, if one ever gets developed. Corona Viruses are nothing new, aka, the common cold. So, what happens if a vaccine can't be found?

I fully expect this to become a societal norm going forward: mask up everytime there is a flare up of any kind whether it is epidemic or pandemic.

Learning to live with it instead of away from it is the first step in reducing fear.

I suppose it's because I've lost enough in the last 5 years to understand that it doesn't matter what you want, what happens is going to happen...


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## 2full

I like that Bowgy !!
We have had that conversation about country people and immune systems with customers in our store several times in the last few weeks.
:mrgreen:


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## bowgy

2full said:


> I like that Bowgy !!
> We have had that conversation about country people and immune systems with customers in our store several times in the last few weeks.
> :mrgreen:


Yep, from crawling around eating dirt to eating silage to cleaning with Tetrahydrachloride in the army without gloves or masks, to a lifetime of soldering with lead based solder it would be something like someone coughing on me to kill me.:shock:


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## Critter

I have read a report that almost reflects the above picture. 

It claimed that we as a society are loosing our natural immunities to a lot of the germs out there because of the "cleaner" activities that the kids are doing now. 

There is something to be said about rooting around out in the dirt as a lot of us did back when we were kids 

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


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## bowgy

Critter said:


> I have read a report that almost reflects the above picture.
> 
> It claimed that we as a society are loosing our natural immunities to a lot of the germs out there because of the "cleaner" activities that the kids are doing now.
> 
> There is something to be said about rooting around out in the dirt as a lot of us did back when we were kids
> 
> Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


I am sure it is true to some extent, I have come of a horse the hard way more than once spitting out dirt, manure and horse and cow hair.


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## backcountry

There is both logic and science to back up conclusions on why a material may prevent particles being expelled from entering the environment yet fail at filtering particles already in the environment from being inhaled.

First, we expell a fair number of droplets which are roughly 1-10 microns in size (some smaller). Sadly we do have evidence the virus could be transmitted through aerosols once in environments (including influence from HVAC) which can mean smaller particles, even below .3 micron. That physical size alone explains part of the difference, even while using cheap materials.

Plus, when we sneeze, breathe or cough into a mask the larger particles are more likely to be forced into the fabric/material. While breathing in, a generalization, much of its going to move through the area of least resistance, ie around a poorly fitted masks. Even then some of the smaller particles will be filtered by cheap materials, just fewer. Here is an experiment by an air filter company that used common techniques (but not peer reviewed):

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-diy-coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-covid/

It shows that fabric readily available around the house can filter particles 1.0 micron or larger (expelled droplets) at rates of 30% or more (many between 70-80% actually). On the other hand, those same fabrics drops by 50-90% efficacy against particles .3 microns or smaller (many inhaled aerosolized particles). Few of those numbers are what you'd want in a medical or lab setting but they provide some benefit for initially preventing particles making it into the environment (and even minor benefit to inhaling).

Some particles will even escape well fit professional masks (hence N95 not 100). And that's with textiles that are often electrostatically charged. Even without a PPE shortage most people probably wouldn't be willing to wear an N95 in most situations most of the time as they aren't very breathable (logical). Much of this also exposes why we have symptomatic people wear surgical masks at medical facilities while healthcare workers wear N95 gear.

I would say a 30-80% decrease in large particles entering the environment is a net benefit worthy of encouraging the use of homemade masks in public settings. It's fewer droplets in the air and on surfaces. That's not about fear or panic but about making shared common spaces like grocery stores, transportation, etc potentially safer for everyone until we get this under better control.

https://theconversation.com/coronav...res-the-science-of-infectious-aerosols-136663


----------



## DallanC

Critter said:


> I have read a report that almost reflects the above picture.
> 
> It claimed that we as a society are loosing our natural immunities to a lot of the germs out there because of the "cleaner" activities that the kids are doing now.
> 
> There is something to be said about rooting around out in the dirt as a lot of us did back when we were kids


Not only that, but medical advances have allowed survivability of infants that would have otherwise died not all that long ago. The "survival of the fittest" doesnt apply to humans. I'm sure the injection of weaker gene's wont benefit humanity as a whole in the long run.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

High Desert Elk said:


> The quicker the exposure, the quicker herd immunity kicks in. That's science...


It's actually not "science" which is why the scientific community is by and large (ie consensus) against the slow burn approach.

First, herd immunity, as commonly applied in medicine, is a strategy to reduce disease spread through populations. It's why most of the time the term is used in relation to getting a large portion of society inoculated when vaccines are available. This slow burn strategy requires the opposite, ie letting most people get infected.

On top of this, we don't know if exposure infers immunity and if so for how long. One can draw hypotheses from other coronaviruses but that isn't the most critical step of science. You actually have to test that which we are still in the process of doing. We have educated guesses about the immunity component but no direct scientific studies to support conclusions for such with this novel virus.

Given we don't know what the threshold is for herd immunity and how long immunity lasts, if obtained, the notion that "the quicker the exposure, the quicker the herd immunity" isn't exactly supported. What happens if we get immunity but it only lasts a few months? Even Sweden's approach has taken 6+ weeks at this point. What happens if/when it survives in the southern hemisphere and reinfects that nation in the autumn after it's population no longer has immunity?

Not only do we not know if/when herd immunity kicks in but we also don't know the range of sequelae that happens when you let this burn through populations. We are now seeing the unusual cases in NY children get attention. We know it's caused unusual neurological effects. Etc. This slow burn hypothesis means we just accept such outcomes in the name of expediency.

There is a reason scientist are saying it would take a "public health catastrophe" to reach herd immunity in an expedited manner (ie before 2021). And to be very clear, a public health catastrophe is antithetical to the goal of seeking herd immunity from a medical standpoint.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-ou...ty-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

When you use reputable, science based sources the statements are overwhelming consistent. If herd immunity is going to happen anytime soon (likely years), and that's a big if, it will most likely involve a massive campaign of inoculation and not just relying on natural immunity from disease exposure.


----------



## 2full

It was a tongue in cheek observation. A light moment in these stressful times.


----------



## High Desert Elk

backcountry said:


> It's actually not "science" which is why the scientific community is by and large (ie consensus) against the slow burn approach.
> 
> First, herd immunity, as commonly applied in medicine, is a strategy to reduce disease spread through populations. It's why most of the time the term is used in relation to getting a large portion of society inoculated when vaccines are available. This slow burn strategy requires the opposite, ie letting most people get infected.
> 
> On top of this, we don't know if exposure infers immunity and if so for how long. One can draw hypotheses from other coronaviruses but that isn't the most critical step of science. You actually have to test that which we are still in the process of doing. We have educated guesses about the immunity component but no direct scientific studies to support conclusions for such with this novel virus.
> 
> Given we don't know what the threshold is for herd immunity and how long immunity lasts, if obtained, the notion that "the quicker the exposure, the quicker the herd immunity" isn't exactly supported. What happens if we get immunity but it only lasts a few months? Even Sweden's approach has taken 6+ weeks at this point. What happens if/when it survives in the southern hemisphere and reinfects that nation in the autumn after it's population no longer has immunity?
> 
> Not only do we not know if/when herd immunity kicks in but we also don't know the range of sequelae that happens when you let this burn through populations. We are now seeing the unusual cases in NY children get attention. We know it's caused unusual neurological effects. Etc. This slow burn hypothesis means we just accept such outcomes in the name of expediency.
> 
> There is a reason scientist are saying it would take a "public health catastrophe" to reach herd immunity in an expedited manner (ie before 2021). And to be very clear, a public health catastrophe is antithetical to the goal of seeking herd immunity from a medical standpoint.
> 
> https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-ou...ty-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
> 
> When you use reputable, science based sources the statements are overwhelming consistent. If herd immunity is going to happen anytime soon (likely years), and that's a big if, it will most likely involve a massive campaign of inoculation and not just relying on natural immunity from disease exposure.


The inherent problem with your post is it relies on the concept of vaccination and the modern interpretation of fighting disease that goes against the narrative and the conventional wisdom of "when the kid down the street got chicken pox, your mom wanted him to become your new best friend".

What I am talking about will spread more rapidly through a population, it obviously has. You take the data today and extrapolate against the total population as a whole, the data set gets even bigger. Even if it takes "years" as you say through inoculation, there is still an exposure that will not stop and continue to build while the magic juice is being developed and mass produced that will naturally begin to take hold, the vaccine will shore it up, eventually.

So, it is rather foolish to sit back and wait each time for the magic juice to be developed every time a bug surfaces that we don't want to deal with. A lot of doctors, immunologists, and microbiologists agree. Just depends on which one you talk to.

An inoculation is the same thing as natural exposure just with a new narrative from academia to justify a paycheck...


----------



## Jedidiah

The flu killed about 34,000 Americans during the 2018-2019 flu season. COVID-19 has killed 81,000 Americans in three months with strict regulations. The Spanish Flu's deaths in the second wave in the fall multiplied to 5X the amount of the first wave in the spring. The masks are necessary because the asymptomatic period can be a week or more while people are contagious. Herd immunity doesn't apply because this particular virus is extremely deadly and successful in people with normally strong immune systems. The asympomatic period and the deaths among people with strong immune systems are disturbingly similar to the Spanish Flu. The last three pages of posts of anecdotal proofs against masks are ridiculous, you guys don't know any of the actual numbers, or facts, and you would be safer and better informed and dare I say happier if you did some research.


----------



## Jedidiah

High Desert Elk said:


> An inoculation is the same thing as natural exposure just with a new narrative from academia to justify a paycheck...


Holy crap man, no it's not. Did you sleep through high school biology? A vaccine gives your immune system an example of the bugs in a safe dose with very low chance of transmission. Getting sick with the virus gives it a chance to spread and more importantly, create new strains.


----------



## middlefork

This thing is not going away. Best to figure out how you are going to deal with it. You may slow the spread but you are not going to stop it. Too many people today are getting confused about the protocols.

If and that is a big if, everybody wears a mask every time they are outside of their house what would you expect the transmission level to drop to?

I personally believe the standards some people are trying to achieve are unachievable. Much like "clean air".


----------



## backcountry

High Desert Elk said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's actually not "science" which is why the scientific community is by and large (ie consensus) against the slow burn approach.
> 
> First, herd immunity, as commonly applied in medicine, is a strategy to reduce disease spread through populations. It's why most of the time the term is used in relation to getting a large portion of society inoculated when vaccines are available. This slow burn strategy requires the opposite, ie letting most people get infected.
> 
> On top of this, we don't know if exposure infers immunity and if so for how long. One can draw hypotheses from other coronaviruses but that isn't the most critical step of science. You actually have to test that which we are still in the process of doing. We have educated guesses about the immunity component but no direct scientific studies to support conclusions for such with this novel virus.
> 
> Given we don't know what the threshold is for herd immunity and how long immunity lasts, if obtained, the notion that "the quicker the exposure, the quicker the herd immunity" isn't exactly supported. What happens if we get immunity but it only lasts a few months? Even Sweden's approach has taken 6+ weeks at this point. What happens if/when it survives in the southern hemisphere and reinfects that nation in the autumn after it's population no longer has immunity?
> 
> Not only do we not know if/when herd immunity kicks in but we also don't know the range of sequelae that happens when you let this burn through populations. We are now seeing the unusual cases in NY children get attention. We know it's caused unusual neurological effects. Etc. This slow burn hypothesis means we just accept such outcomes in the name of expediency.
> 
> There is a reason scientist are saying it would take a "public health catastrophe" to reach herd immunity in an expedited manner (ie before 2021). And to be very clear, a public health catastrophe is antithetical to the goal of seeking herd immunity from a medical standpoint.
> 
> https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-ou...ty-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
> 
> When you use reputable, science based sources the statements are overwhelming consistent. If herd immunity is going to happen anytime soon (likely years), and that's a big if, it will most likely involve a massive campaign of inoculation and not just relying on natural immunity from disease exposure.
> 
> 
> 
> The inherent problem with your post is it relies on the concept of vaccination and the modern interpretation of fighting disease that goes against the narrative and the conventional wisdom of "when the kid down the street got chicken pox, your mom wanted him to become your new best friend".
> 
> What I am talking about will spread more rapidly through a population, it obviously has. You take the data today and extrapolate against the total population as a whole, the data set gets even bigger. Even if it takes "years" as you say through inoculation, there is still an exposure that will not stop and continue to build while the magic juice is being developed and mass produced that will naturally begin to take hold, the vaccine will shore it up, eventually.
> 
> So, it is rather foolish to sit back and wait each time for the magic juice to be developed every time a bug surfaces that we don't want to deal with. A lot of doctors, immunologists, and microbiologists agree. Just depends on which one you talk to.
> 
> An inoculation is the same thing as natural exposure just with a new narrative from academia to justify a paycheck...
Click to expand...

I appreciate you have abandoned your unsustainable claim about "science" and are just admitting you are relying on "conventional wisdom" in your logic. They aren't remotely the same.

I wouldn't say a lot of immunologist and microbiologist agree, nor is that self-evident in peer reviewed journals. I'm not touching the doctor claim as we've already seen the pseudoscience of a couple doctors in Bakersfield and how that got destroyed. The funny thing about scientific consensus is it doesn't require each and every and scientist to agree, as that's impossible. It does recognize what relevant experts and the literature says and in that case it flies in the face of your claims.

Are you an anti-vaxer? If so, just own it. The "magic juice" phrase and your inability to differentiate between "natural immunity", inoculation or even the true point of herd immunity don't exactly point to a scientific literacy on the subject matter, which is common in the anti-vaxer crowd. I assume we'll be seeing more of them and their go to "paycheck" type retorts.

"What you are describing" are massive assumptions not supported by data and investigation of this novel disease. They could turn out to be true but that's not exactly how science works. And no, if you "extrapolate against the total population as a whole" doesn't mean "the data set gets even bigger." The data set stays the same when you "extrapolate" and the process of analysis you are describing has been thoroughly debunked (thanks to the idiocy of the Bakersfield duo). I'm not a scientist but I do understand experimental design and what you are describing lacks any biological or statistical rigor.

(Now, when we test the data set does get bigger because that is empirical evidence. Sadly our data sets are inherently problematic because the protocol has been changed multiple times but that happens in the middle of pandemic of a novel virus. )

You may believe natural immunity may develop over time. It's a definite possibility. But even exposure to other coronaviruses that are seasonal mainstays in human populations only provide temporary immunity, some oy for months while some, like SARS seem to last 2-3 years with highest levels peaking around 4 months.

What that means is your idea is a wild guess right now built on a ton of unknowns. Maybe Covid-19 will provide survivors last immunity and we can be less strict in the future as there aren't huge populations for it to easily burn through. Or it could provide only temporary immunity, if any, and we keep fighting this thing every winter until a vaccine is developed (if ever). Maybe it's an grey area between the two like we've seen in other diseases.

But we simply don't know yet. We could find out soon but that timeline is highly uncertain. And those actively working on a vaccine are doing a lot less magical thinking then your posts exhibit.

*PS....the fact that you are actively comparing this to dealing with Chickenpox is a dead give away of the pseudoscientific foundations of your argument. This isn't close to the same and an epidemiological response comparable to chickenpox parties isn't recommended by any reputable source right now. That comparison is dangerous.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> The flu killed about 34,000 Americans during the 2018-2019 flu season. COVID-19 has killed 81,000 Americans in three months with strict regulations. The Spanish Flu's deaths in the second wave in the fall multiplied to 5X the amount of the first wave in the spring. The masks are necessary because the asymptomatic period can be a week or more while people are contagious. Herd immunity doesn't apply because this particular virus is extremely deadly and successful in people with normally strong immune systems. The asympomatic period and the deaths among people with strong immune systems are disturbingly similar to the Spanish Flu. The last three pages of posts of anecdotal proofs against masks are ridiculous, you guys don't know any of the actual numbers, or facts, and you would be safer and better informed and dare I say happier if you did some research.


61K the year before. That's not comparing the two as far as how deadly they are - you brought the flu up - I am only saying it can hit some high numbers in the US.

I'm not sure New York (25% of US deaths) encouraging people to go out and catch a show or leaving subways open was strict regulation. But that doesn't take away from the point you wanted to make about what we did after-the-fact.

As for the Spanish flu, it's hard to use an event from 1918 to model one in 2020. One where people were bunked in tent hospitals on cots with little to no PPE. Hell it's hard to even compare two viruses because they can act so different. Taking some precautions based on hindsight isn't bad at all. Lets just keep in context that there were a lot of other variables at play then, that's all.

It's fine to drive home a point, but I feel like your statements intentionally left out context. Where you should add context is when you talk about science and masks since you were telling others they have no clue.


----------



## Vanilla

DallanC said:


> +1000
> 
> I know a person that literally calls our house about every other day to make sure we are wearing our masks, and freaks out if we are not. That person is developing a OCD mental issue over this ... and is now on hypertension medications and it seems to be getting worse.
> 
> I understand if a person feels at risk, and takes responsibility and action to protect themselves... but how do you get to the point you are cold-calling people up to berate them on the off chance they aren't wearing a mask?
> 
> *I DONT NEED TO WEAR A F'ing MASK IN MY OWN HOME*
> 
> -DallanC


You gave backcountry your phone number????


----------



## Jedidiah

The argument about context is fair. I'm not so sure we're going to have any way to know how it's going to play out until this fall anyway. 

I am going to say though that we've got folks in here and elsewhere arguing for no masks anywhere, acting like they're annoyed other people are wearing masks. If they want to wear masks that's their business. Maybe they have a cough and they don't know what it is and they don't want to risk you.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> DallanC said:
> 
> 
> 
> +1000
> 
> I know a person that literally calls our house about every other day to make sure we are wearing our masks, and freaks out if we are not. That person is developing a OCD mental issue over this ... and is now on hypertension medications and it seems to be getting worse.
> 
> I understand if a person feels at risk, and takes responsibility and action to protect themselves... but how do you get to the point you are cold-calling people up to berate them on the off chance they aren't wearing a mask?
> 
> *I DONT NEED TO WEAR A F'ing MASK IN MY OWN HOME*
> 
> -DallanC
> 
> 
> 
> You gave backcountry your phone number????
Click to expand...

Gasp....another post by Vanilla that's a caricature of reality?


----------



## Jedidiah

backcountry said:


> Gasp....another post by Vanilla that's a caricature of reality?


Conversational dingleberry.


----------



## brisket

Vanilla said:


> DallanC said:
> 
> 
> 
> +1000
> 
> I know a person that literally calls our house about every other day to make sure we are wearing our masks, and freaks out if we are not. That person is developing a OCD mental issue over this ... and is now on hypertension medications and it seems to be getting worse.
> 
> I understand if a person feels at risk, and takes responsibility and action to protect themselves... but how do you get to the point you are cold-calling people up to berate them on the off chance they aren't wearing a mask?
> 
> *I DONT NEED TO WEAR A F'ing MASK IN MY OWN HOME*
> 
> -DallanC
> 
> 
> 
> You gave backcountry your phone number????
Click to expand...

ROFL!


----------



## olibooger

backcountry said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DallanC said:
> 
> 
> 
> +1000
> 
> I know a person that literally calls our house about every other day to make sure we are wearing our masks, and freaks out if we are not. That person is developing a OCD mental issue over this ... and is now on hypertension medications and it seems to be getting worse.
> 
> I understand if a person feels at risk, and takes responsibility and action to protect themselves... but how do you get to the point you are cold-calling people up to berate them on the off chance they aren't wearing a mask?
> 
> *I DONT NEED TO WEAR A F'ing MASK IN MY OWN HOME*
> 
> -DallanC
> 
> 
> 
> You gave backcountry your phone number????
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Gasp....another post by Vanilla that's a caricature of reality?
Click to expand...

They are hiring a small army of contact tracers that will be going door to door ensuring more than just a face mask. Plenty of people unemployed willing to do it too.


----------



## RandomElk16

olibooger said:


> They are hiring a small army of contact tracers that will be going door to door ensuring more than just a face mask. Plenty of people unemployed willing to do it too.


-^|^-:doh:


----------



## olibooger

A reflection of the people on this thread?
You guys are still in a disinformation bubble I see.

SmH

Until next month! 🖕


----------



## RandomElk16

olibooger said:


> A reflection of the people on this thread?
> You guys are still in a disinformation bubble I see.
> 
> SmH
> 
> Until next month! &#128405;


Won't be able to post next month. The invasion will have started and this website will be down.


----------



## bowgy

Okay..... finally a good explanation.


----------



## Catherder

A lot of Social media and internet warriors like to talk about "herd immunity". (Often with a loose understanding of what it truly means.) Here is a good article that sheds light on the subject.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/


----------



## backcountry

I can't believe I'm saying this....but Oli is closer to the truth than ever before. It's not saying much but the next stage does rely on that "army" of contact tracers. And for communities, states and nations to remain largely open means those in contact with known cases will either have to voluntarily quarantine or be compelled to do so. 

I'm guessing we are just seeing the start of conspiracy theories. Scary thought. These Health Orders have a long history but it runs up against well established strains of resistance. I'm hopeful most people will cooperate and we'll have monetary systems in place to aid the economic burdens of 7-20 days in isolation. Ultimately it will be cheaper for everyone if we support those with exposure but policy is never that rational. 

I remain skeptical but hopeful most people will do what is "necessary". It's hard some days like today when we see so few people around town wearing masks but it seems like people are learning. (Didn't see a single person wearing one going into Walgreens)


----------



## brisket

An additional 2.98 million filed for unemployment last week. Total since March: 36.5 million.


----------



## DallanC

brisket said:


> An additional 2.98 million filed for unemployment last week. Total since March: 36.5 million.


This is going to be so epically bad. ABC news is estimating 27 million loosing health insurance.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/27-mi...h-insurance-coverage-report/story?id=70658766

We'll see a spike in deaths and budget issues from hospitals down the road from people letting issues get acute before seeking care.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

State leaders are projecting a 2-4 year recovery period for Utah to bounce back economically from what has already happened in our state. And Utah is being recognized as one of the states in the best position to bounce back. Provo and SLC both make the top 10 list of metropolitan areas best equipped to recover quickly after this is all said and done. 

Think about that. If Utah is well-position and well-managed, and we are looking at 2-4 years, where does that leave those states that were in terrible shape already and not well-equipped to return to solid economic footing? 

Yes, things will be tough. And there are no quick fixes.


----------



## Vanilla

Vanilla said:


> I'd be willing to bet we don't lose 10,000 Americans to coronavirus in the next year.


Ha! I was a little off on this one, huh? Back from late February.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> Yes, things will be tough. And there are no quick fixes.


That is why it is important to both keep the pandemic in reasonable check *and* re-open the economy in a timely manner. (In other words, not get sucked into the extreme positions on either side of the discussion.)

Also, I think comparing contact tracers working for the health department to the types of troops Oli is talking about is a bit of a stretch. The health department doesn't provide jack boots and helmets.


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> Ha! I was a little off on this one, huh? Back from late February.


You really cant be blamed, that was during the time frame the WHO was saying there wasn't person to person transmission and for people to NOT wear face masks.

No matter what your thoughts are on virus vs response... no-one should disagree information on it has been a cluster**** this entire time. Mixed messages, releasing incomplete information early, completely inaccurate information. Add onto that the media hyping this to no end.

Anyone catch they are now finding corona transmission via eyes? Look for the media pumping panic and wanting people to start wearing goggles next.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

DallanC said:


> Anyone catch they are now finding corona transmission via eyes? Look for the media pumping panic and wanting people to start wearing goggles next.
> 
> -DallanC


I read somewhere if your right eye offends you that you should pluck it out and cast it away.

Problem solved!!!


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> I read somewhere if your right eye offends you that you should pluck it out and cast it away.
> 
> Problem solved!!!


I'm left handed, so I only need my left eye for shoot'n :mrgreen:

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, things will be tough. And there are no quick fixes.
> 
> 
> 
> That is why it is important to both keep the pandemic in reasonable check *and* re-open the economy in a timely manner. (In other words, not get sucked into the extreme positions on either side of the discussion.)
> 
> Also, I think comparing contact tracers working for the health department to the types of troops Oli is talking about is a bit of a stretch. The health department doesn't provide jack boots and helmets.
Click to expand...

Less jackboots and helmets and more headsets and tennis shoes.

I hope people treat them well as their job is critical to save lives and help stabilize the economy.

Cedar City is just starting to feel the pain now that the Summer Games and Shakespeare Festival cancelled. Our summer economy is fueled by those two events. Locals alone can't keep our service industry open so I'm guessing we'll see some semi permanent job last losses until next May when we more knowledge about the diseases full impact.

I doubt we've seen the full weight of voluntary closures in the tourist industry yet; plenty of businesses and employees unwilling to put themselves and customers at risk. Having talked to most of my family and friends, few of them are going back to old habits after their states are slowly releasing restrictions. The "open us back up" protestors always underestimated how sincerely the majority of citizens were invested in a slow and steady fight against this disease.


----------



## Gordon

> Yes, things will be tough. And there are no quick fixes.


I hope we as a society have the stomach for times ahead. My biggest covid disappointment has been what a bunch of soft whimps we have all become. It has become painfully obvious that discipline is lacking in the American DNA these days. Hope I am proved wrong but we seem way to quick to cut and run when the times get tough.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I hope people treat them well as their job is critical to save lives and help stabilize the economy.


That's what the Germans said.

Just kidding, relax.


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> That's what the Germans said.
> 
> Just kidding, relax.


Joking or not, they did say that. And many other things that are kind of shocking when you think about things we've observed in modern times.


----------



## backcountry

Oh please clarify.....

Godwin should get royalties.


----------



## Catherder

You guys are probably tired of the wonky stuff I put on here but here is a podcast that discusses covid conspiracy theories (and conspiracy theories in general) in some detail. I found it quite interesting. The presence of Oli and his crowd makes more sense now.

Don't worry, the guest tweaks the noses of both righties and lefties the same, so everyone can listen to it. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-can-covid-19-conspiracy-theories-be-stopped/


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> Joking or not, they did say that. And many other things that are kind of shocking when you think about things we've observed in modern times.


I only said kidding to save his breathe. :mrgreen:


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> Joking or not, they did say that. And many other things that are kind of shocking when you think about things we've observed in modern times.
> 
> 
> 
> I only said kidding to save his breathe.
Click to expand...

I would love to hear how contact tracers from health departments (ie context of my health and economy comment) are comparable to "Germany" (assuming world war era Nazism). I'm sure it would be very entertaining to see people stitch that disparate narrative together.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I would love to hear how contact tracers from health departments (ie context of my health and economy comment) are comparable to "Germany" (assuming world war era Nazism). I'm sure it would be very entertaining to see people stitch that disparate narrative together.


Oh now I get to do what you do, and ask why you are misleading what I said? I never said they were "comparable". You intentionally are misleading. (I'm only kidding, this is just what you usually do).

When you said their job was "critical to save lives", I said that's what the Germans said. It pretty much is, no?

Doesn't mean they are comparable outside of that. Mainly trying to get you fired up.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Oh now I get to do what you do, and ask why you are misleading what I said? I never said they were "comparable". You intentionally are misleading. (I'm only kidding, this is just what you usually do).
> 
> When you said their job was "critical to save lives", I said that's what the Germans said. It pretty much is, no?
> 
> Doesn't mean they are comparable outside of that. Mainly trying to get you fired up.


I don't get fired up by simple trolls too easily anymore. I find the sort of crap you said entertaining and worth combating is all. You often misinterpret my motivation and the level of my emotional investment (hint, its pretty close to nil).

I didn't misrepresent what you said (no quotes or attribution). I posed a challenge: show me how the roles I highlighted for the health department contact tracers are comparable to your reference "germans", hence my reduction to the scare quote "germany". You pulled the Reductio ad Hitlerum out of your butt. So I'm curious how you link what I said "I hope people treat them well as their job is critical to save lives and help stabilize the economy" to your claim "that's what the Germans said." You are inherently comparing my statement about contact tracers to German slogans/statements/etc. And remember, context and scale matter when making direct references, and inherent logical comparisons, to Nazi Germany.

At least understand the logic of your own posts.

And no, I'm not convinced "its pretty much" what they said in spirit or content. You do though so, why not do the work to support your claim? (Here's my guess....you won't because you know its an absurd argument).

You didn't go full tinfoil like Oli but your post was only a few steps off. A majority of people know the most comparisons to Germany/Nazis/Hitler are blatantly absurd and wisely avoid them like the plaque. But in the last two months we've seen references to "papers please", "cattle cars" and now this.

*Godwins Law should be updated to recognize that its a repetitive cycle in certain threads.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I highly recommend 5 or 6 days freaking days tent camping and hunting in the mountains. You'll loosen right up, forget all about about this crap, and feel great if the big yellow clouds of pollen don't kill your sinuses. Five or six days of camping, cutting firewood, nightly camp fires, and daily hunting, the "World of Covid" will be a world away, and it will seem like a really long time. The world will feel normal to you again. I'm disappointed that nothing much has changed now that I'm back in the world of covid, but the time away from it was soooooo F'ing worth it.

Do it.... do it now. Don't wait for the labor day weekend circus.


----------



## Vanilla

I’m not saying contract tracers are like Nazi thugs, but to say that a major part of the Nazi propaganda didn’t include the need to keep people safe and to protect their economy is one of two things: 1- A complete lack of understanding of history; or 2- A lack of honesty on what you do understand, and just wanting to argue dumb things for the sake of arguing. 

Which is it backcountry? I don’t want to guess at what your intent is here. I’m just looking at what you posted, I’ll let you explain your intent. 

(This ought to get us three more pages alone!)


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> I'm not saying contract tracers are like Nazi thugs, but to say that a major part of the Nazi propaganda didn't include the need to keep people safe and to protect their economy is one of two things: 1- A complete lack of understanding of history; or 2- A lack of honesty on what you do understand, and just wanting to argue dumb things for the sake of arguing.
> 
> Which is it backcountry? I don't want to guess at what your intent is here. I'm just looking at what you posted, I'll let you explain your intent.
> 
> (This ought to get us three more pages alone!)


There you go with BS personal attacks again. It's almost like it's a default in your posts.

It's that making the two analagous (which is a logical outcome inserting the claim in this thread) is a joke like many of your contributions. Hence Godwin's Law reference. By bringing German propaganda up at all in an obtuse way is an argument to the absurd. As I've said in other posts, I actively combat such stupid contributions that lack historical context.

I actually have no problem exposing my intent. Can you say the same?


----------



## Vanilla

If anyone would know anything about arguing the absurd, it’s you. We’ll defer to the expert on this one!

Keep pretending the Nazis didn’t use health safety and the economy in their propaganda though. Easily verifiable facts are hard, I realize.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> If anyone would know anything about arguing the absurd, it's you. We'll defer to the expert on this one!
> 
> Keep pretending the Nazis didn't use health safety and the economy in their propaganda though. Easily verifiable facts are hard, I realize.


There you go again misrepresenting my statements. What I said was "And no, I'm not convinced "its pretty much" what they said in spirit or content", in reference to "as their job is critical to save lives and help stabilize the economy". Never said Nazi's didn't disguise malice behind claims about safety and especially the economy. Fully aware of their propaganda and the social ills they exploited. Sadly those who play the Nazi Card don't tend to reflect or respect those historical differences in their arguments. The mere insertion of the Nazi Card is the joke in this case, one that has a rhetorical "law" named after it because it's so common.

Care to do more than do more than passive aggressive personal attacks?


----------



## backcountry

I believe someone in this thread once said "just wanting to argue dumb things for the sake of arguing.". I think misrepresenting another's ideas to beat up strawman blatantly qualifies as "dumb things" said for the "sake of arguing".


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> I believe someone in this thread once said "just wanting to argue dumb things for the sake of arguing.". I think misrepresenting another's ideas to beat up strawman blatantly qualifies as "dumb things" said for the "sake of arguing".


And, once again, you're the expert! So we'll just defer to you.

Pretty sad you acknowledge these things occurred, but made the demand that someone else show where it happened. Disingenuous, much?

Yes, much indeed!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I believe someone in this thread once said "just wanting to argue dumb things for the sake of arguing.". I think misrepresenting another's ideas to beat up strawman blatantly qualifies as "dumb things" said for the "sake of arguing".
> 
> 
> 
> And, once again, you're the expert! So we'll just defer to you.
> 
> Pretty sad you acknowledge these things occurred, but made the demand that someone else show where it happened. Disingenuous, much?
> 
> Yes, much indeed!
Click to expand...

Anything but disingenuous. (A) You are ignoring the historical context and (b) challenging people to defend their Nazi Card is a great way to expose its absurdity.

The strategy to caricature what's actually said is pretty obtuse. Do people normally fall for it? I mean your comment conflates an ability to defend oneself and their actual statements with BS claims about being an "expert". It's desperate rhetoric which is pretty common in your comments on this site.


----------



## brisket

Vanilla said:


> Which is it backcountry? I don't want to guess at what your intent is here. I'm just looking at what you posted, I'll let you explain your intent.
> 
> (This ought to get us three more pages alone!)


Is he still talking?


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I don't get fired up by simple trolls too easily anymore. I find the sort of crap you said entertaining and worth combating is all. You often misinterpret my motivation and the level of my emotional investment (hint, its pretty close to nil).
> 
> I didn't misrepresent what you said (no quotes or attribution). I posed a challenge: show me how the roles I highlighted for the health department contact tracers are comparable to your reference "germans", hence my reduction to the scare quote "germany". You pulled the Reductio ad Hitlerum out of your butt. So I'm curious how you link what I said "I hope people treat them well as their job is critical to save lives and help stabilize the economy" to your claim "that's what the Germans said." You are inherently comparing my statement about contact tracers to German slogans/statements/etc. And remember, context and scale matter when making direct references, and inherent logical comparisons, to Nazi Germany.
> 
> At least understand the logic of your own posts.
> 
> And no, I'm not convinced "its pretty much" what they said in spirit or content. You do though so, why not do the work to support your claim? (Here's my guess....you won't because you know its an absurd argument).
> 
> You didn't go full tinfoil like Oli but your post was only a few steps off. A majority of people know the most comparisons to Germany/Nazis/Hitler are blatantly absurd and wisely avoid them like the plaque. But in the last two months we've seen references to "papers please", "cattle cars" and now this.
> 
> *Godwins Law should be updated to recognize that its a repetitive cycle in certain threads.


There it is. "I don't get fired up" then go on to berate me.

We get it, you are the smartest man alive. As well as pretty darn arrogant.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> There it is. "I don't get fired up" then go on to berate me.
> 
> We get it, you are the smartest man alive. As well as a jackwagon.


I appreciate the honest approach and not even trying to disguise the personal attacks.

I'm guessing you might actually understand comparing a health department fighting a disease to Nazi propaganda is ridiculous, hence dropping it.

I love that people conflate actually taking the time to defend ideas or logically dismantle absurd ones as assumption about being an "expert" or "smartest man alive".

It takes a lot more than calling me a jackwagon or assuming my emotions to get me "fired up". It's actually pretty easy to criticize ideas on the internet without getting emotionally involved. Petty name calling is just part for the course.

PS... I'll highlight again the difference between criticizing comments volunteered on the internet vs "berating" a person. They are different and the only ones going personal are you and Vanilla.


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> And, once again, you're the expert! So we'll just defer to you.
> 
> Pretty sad you acknowledge these things occurred, but made the demand that someone else show where it happened. Disingenuous, much?
> 
> Yes, much indeed!


Yeah it's not like Nazi propaganda included them pushing "Polish atrocities", to ramp up a safety (health) agenda against Poland and gain support for that invasion. He did the same for Jews. A simple google search of "Hitler's stab in the back myth". Shoot he even pushed racial tuberculosis for a while!

Hitler blamed the Jews for Germany's economic problems. That takes only a simple google search - See "Hitler blamed jews for Weimar Germany's economic problems." He attacked them as the embodiment of Capitalism. Again, google. That was one of the biggest propaganda pushes through the entire duration.

Backcountry can pretend all he wants that they didn't use health (safety) and economics to push their agenda. They 100% did.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I appreciate the honest approach and not even trying to disguise the personal attacks.
> 
> I'm guessing you might actually understand comparing a health department fighting a disease to Nazi propaganda is ridiculous, hence dropping it.
> 
> I love that people conflate actually taking the time to defend ideas or logically dismantle absurd ones as assumption about being an "expert" or "smartest man alive".
> 
> It takes a lot more than calling me a jackwagon or assuming my emotions to get me "fired up". It's actually pretty easy to criticize ideas on the internet without getting emotionally involved. Petty name calling is just part for the course.
> 
> PS... I'll highlight again the difference between criticizing comments volunteered on the internet vs "berating" a person. They are different and the only ones going personal are you and Vanilla.


I mainly replied to you in my last post to Vanilla.

There wasn't anything to defend. I thought it was common knowledge that the Germans used health and DEFINITELY pushed economy and anti-capitalism as the justification to their actions. You being a genius and all, I assumed you knew.

We aren't spending time defending it because 1. We aren't passionate about Germany, and 2. It's common grade-school knowledge.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I appreciate the honest approach and not even trying to disguise the personal attacks.
> 
> I'm guessing you might actually understand comparing a health department fighting a disease to Nazi propaganda is ridiculous, hence dropping it.
> 
> I love that people conflate actually taking the time to defend ideas or logically dismantle absurd ones as assumption about being an "expert" or "smartest man alive".
> 
> It takes a lot more than calling me a jackwagon or assuming my emotions to get me "fired up". It's actually pretty easy to criticize ideas on the internet without getting emotionally involved. Petty name calling is just part for the course.
> 
> PS... I'll highlight again the difference between criticizing comments volunteered on the internet vs "berating" a person. They are different and the only ones going personal are you and Vanilla.
> 
> 
> 
> I mainly replied to you in my last post to Vanilla.
> 
> There wasn't anything to defend. I thought it was common knowledge that the Germans used health and DEFINITELY pushed economy and anti-capitalism as the justification to their actions. You being a genius and all, I assumed you knew.
> 
> We aren't spending time defending it because 1. We aren't passionate about Germany, and 2. It's common grade-school knowledge.
Click to expand...

Oh it's common knowledge historically and also common knowledge that it's absurd to bring it into conversations that aren't remotely the same in scale or context, ie absurd.

Our situation isn't analagous and it's utter BS to bring it up about the pandemic. But people keep doing it.

*Fun that you dug even deeper with the "anti-capitalism" comment. It exposes why I challenge people to justify and defend their claims.


----------



## backcountry

I'll add genius to the list of passive aggressive insults. At some point it's just enjoyable seeing the names and claims people use when their ideas are criticized.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I'll add genius to the list of passive aggressive insults. At some point it's just enjoyable seeing the names and claims people use when their ideas are criticized.


It's not an insult at all. It's how you portray yourself, that's not a bad thing. You just do so by passively calling others idiots than backtracking that you didn't. That's a bad thing.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'll add genius to the list of passive aggressive insults. At some point it's just enjoyable seeing the names and claims people use when their ideas are criticized.
> 
> 
> 
> It's not an insult at all. It's how you portray yourself, that's not a bad thing. You just do so by passively calling others idiots than backtracking that you didn't. That's a bad thing.
Click to expand...

There is another mistruth. Where did I call someone an idiot, even passively? Seems like it should be easy to prove.

You may interpret my comments as such but I definitely don't "portray" myself as a "genius". Criticizing comments about "what germans said" and expecting people to not engage in personal attacks when challenged does a genius not make.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> *Fun that you dug even deeper with the "anti-capitalism" comment. It exposes why I challenge people to justify and defend their claims.


Exposes? It's what Hitler believed...

I didn't draw the parallel between that and our current state, is that what you are assuming the point of that was? What I was drawing is that they used the economy as a major part of their propaganda. Some countries they said were pushing Communism (which while is a gov system, impacts economy), but with the Jews they pushed against them because of Capitalism and used very derogatory terms for them related to money. Can you tell me which of these things you believe isn't accurate?

You are overthinking a simple comment but clearly don't want ANY correlation drawn. The reality is, many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently. People have a cautious view of the government, and a feeling that they are still entitled to rights. Including privacy. There is even talk of virus identification. You don't think that sounds like "checking papers"?

Is it likely to be something like what the Germans did? Of course not. We know it's extreme, and yes there are some people who fully believe it will be that way. Is it reasonable that some people are very nervous who were told they had to go home, lose their job or business, and do what the government tells them or be jailed? Now those officials are going door to door for further enforcement? Sure it is.

There does exist an area between completely trusting the government and shutting your life down (a spot you seem comfortable with) and the tin foil crew like Oli. That middle ground of concern, skepticism, distrust... It's not a ridiculous place to be in although whenever someone seems to be in that area you come across like it's insane.


----------



## Vanilla

Nobody compared anything to each other but you, backcountry. The original post, and all of mine have expressly states such. Keep grasping at straws so you can desperately argue the absurd just for the sake of doing so. 

Desperate. Ha! You take this forum WAAAAAY more seriously than I do, obviously. Your desperate attempts. Ha! You’re clowning now.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> Nobody compared anything to each other but you, backcountry. The original post, and all of mine have expressly states such. Keep grasping at straws so you can desperately argue the absurd just for the sake of doing so.
> 
> Desperate. Ha! You take this forum WAAAAAY more seriously than I do, obviously. Your desperate attempts. Ha! You're clowning now.


Oops, not the best timing.



RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> *Fun that you dug even deeper with the "anti-capitalism" comment. It exposes why I challenge people to justify and defend their claims.
> 
> 
> 
> Exposes? It's what Hitler believed...
> 
> I didn't draw the parallel between that and our current state, is that what you are assuming the point of that was? What I was drawing is that they used the economy as a major part of their propaganda. Some countries they said were pushing Communism (which while is a gov system, impacts economy), but with the Jews they pushed against them because of Capitalism and used very derogatory terms for them related to money. Can you tell me which of these things you believe isn't accurate?
> 
> You are overthinking a simple comment but clearly don't want ANY correlation drawn. The reality is, many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently. People have a cautious view of the government, and a feeling that they are still entitled to rights. Including privacy. There is even talk of virus identification. You don't think that sounds like "checking papers"?
> 
> Is it likely to be something like what the Germans did? Of course not. We know it's extreme, and yes there are some people who fully believe it will be that way. Is it reasonable that some people are very nervous who were told they had to go home, lose their job or business, and do what the government tells them or be jailed? Now those officials are going door to door for further enforcement? Sure it is.
> 
> There does exist an area between completely trusting the government and shutting your life down (a spot you seem comfortable with) and the tin foil crew like Oli. That middle ground of concern, skepticism, distrust... It's not a ridiculous place to be in although whenever someone seems to be in that area you come across like it's insane.
Click to expand...

Random literally just associated citizens with Covid-19 to Jews when he wrote " looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews)".

My quick little exercise wasn't desperate at all as he actually linked them together, ie an argument to the absurd.

PS... Vanilla, I didn't compare the two at all as my argument is inherently about contrasting them and calling out any similarities as ridiculous. They aren't the same in context or scale. Yet again you misrepresent my ideas.


----------



## bowgy

Wicked smart


----------



## backcountry

The reality is by inserting Nazism into the thread in response to my comment is making it analagous. It's the inherent logic of the voluntary choice. And all I had to do was challenge Random a bit and he dug the hole deeper. 

Like I said, there is a rhetorical "law" that has described the absurdity of this approach for decades. And y'all proved it's accuracy, ie we approached "1" a long time ago.


----------



## Jedidiah

RandomElk16 said:


> Exposes? It's what Hitler believed...
> 
> I didn't draw the parallel between that and our current state, is that what you are assuming the point of that was? What I was drawing is that they used the economy as a major part of their propaganda. Some countries they said were pushing Communism (which while is a gov system, impacts economy), but with the Jews they pushed against them because of Capitalism and used very derogatory terms for them related to money. Can you tell me which of these things you believe isn't accurate?
> 
> You are overthinking a simple comment but clearly don't want ANY correlation drawn. The reality is, many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently. People have a cautious view of the government, and a feeling that they are still entitled to rights. Including privacy. There is even talk of virus identification. You don't think that sounds like "checking papers"?
> 
> Is it likely to be something like what the Germans did? Of course not. We know it's extreme, and yes there are some people who fully believe it will be that way. Is it reasonable that some people are very nervous who were told they had to go home, lose their job or business, and do what the government tells them or be jailed? Now those officials are going door to door for further enforcement? Sure it is.
> 
> There does exist an area between completely trusting the government and shutting your life down (a spot you seem comfortable with) and the tin foil crew like Oli. That middle ground of concern, skepticism, distrust... It's not a ridiculous place to be in although whenever someone seems to be in that area you come across like it's insane.


HOOOOOLY deep-fried country southern crap batman, COVID infected folks are like the Jews now? I mean...what...what the...what? Are some of you guys having trouble getting your usual medication?

Wow...


----------



## DallanC

100% Covid19 cure reportedly found:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/he...akthrough/ar-BB147Tvt?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=U345DHP



> EXCLUSIVE - *A California-based biopharmaceutical company claims to have discovered an antibody that could shield the human body from the coronavirus and flush it out of a person's system within four days*, Fox News has exclusively learned.
> 
> Later Friday, Sorrento Therapeutics will announce their discovery of the STI-1499 antibody, which the San Diego company said can provide "100% inhibition" of COVID-19, adding that a treatment could be available months before a vaccine hits the market.
> 
> "*We want to emphasize there is a cure. There is a solution that works 100 percent,*" Dr. Henry Ji, founder and CEO of Sorrento Therapeutics, told Fox News. "If we have the neutralizing antibody in your body, you don't need the social distancing. You can open up a society without fear."


Now if they could find a cure for the damage done to the economy.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> The reality is by inserting Nazism into the thread in response to my comment is making it analagous. It's the inherent logic of the voluntary choice.


No, that is your opinion. The REALITY is that you made it that way. But because you never take responsibility for anything, and only blame others, I'm predicting you're incapable of seeing that.

You like apples?


----------



## Vanilla

bowgy said:


> Wicked smart


One of my favorite movie scenes of all time! And so apropos for this thread!!! Incredibly well placed, Bowgy.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> The reality is by inserting Nazism into the thread in response to my comment is making it analagous. It's the inherent logic of the voluntary choice.
> 
> 
> 
> No, that is your opinion. The REALITY is that you made it that way. But because you never take responsibility for anything, and only blame others, I'm predicting you're incapable of seeing that.
> 
> You like apples?
Click to expand...

Not opinion, logical construction/analysis. It's a literal example of Reductio ad Hitlerum.

His original reply is almost a replica of the cliche.

Not to mentioned he literally compared Covid-19 patients to Jews and now raised the bet with "checking papers."


----------



## Jedidiah

I'm sorry, the minute I saw Germans and Jews this thread turned into that scene in the mental hospital from Ace Ventura, I think this thing has run its course. You guys should let it go until some more major stuff happens.


----------



## Vanilla

It’s been weeks since you’ve approached anything dealing with this issue with any measure of logic. 

Notice how the discussion is fruitful, productive, and respectful until you jump back in? I’m guessing everyone else has. You used to approach this issue with strong views, but a level head. You jumped the shark weeks ago, however. 

But again, you’re incapable of seeing it. So, whatever. Tell me again how “desperate” I am on an Internet forum with a bunch of wanna be epidemiologists! Regurgitate something you read for us again using big words. Maybe you’ll get the girl. 

Bye Felicia.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Oops, not the best timing.
> 
> Random literally just associated citizens with Covid-19 to Jews when he wrote " looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews)".
> 
> My quick little exercise wasn't desperate at all as he actually linked them together, ie an argument to the absurd.
> 
> PS... Vanilla, I didn't compare the two at all as my argument is inherently about contrasting them and calling out any similarities as ridiculous. They aren't the same in context or scale. Yet again you misrepresent my ideas.


Simply trying to explain that some people are nervous.

An argument to the absurd? Read the rest of my comment.....

We also didn't compare contact tracers earlier. What I did do is copy your statement about them being for Health and Economic and said that's what the German's said. It is. I can also reiterate, that doesn't mean there is comparisons in outcome or intent.

I guess context only matters when it's your post.


----------



## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> HOOOOOLY deep-fried country southern crap batman, COVID infected folks are like the Jews now? I mean...what...what the...what? Are some of you guys having trouble getting your usual medication?
> 
> Wow...


And it only took challenging Random a few times after her flopped down the Nazi Card "That's what the Germans said."

He went all in and more.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> I'm sorry, the minute I saw Germans and Jews this thread turned into that scene in the mental hospital from Ace Ventura, I think this thing has run its course. You guys should let it go until some more major stuff happens.


I mean... it would only take you two seconds to read and know that we weren't saying this is the same as the holocaust.

Apparently that's a really hard thing to understand, despite me and Vanilla continuously saying it.


----------



## Vanilla

You keep bringing if up “papers.” I’ve let it slide all this time, but you want to know something funny?

One of my close friends works for a large US company and has to travel in between western states inspecting displays at retail stores, etc. Do you know what he was issued in March?

Papers. Papers he was (and still is) required by his employer to carry on him at all times while on shift stating he is “essential” under the law if confronted by enforcement officials. So you can mock that notion all you want. Our country literally issued papers to people in this pandemic. 

Go ahead, go wicked smart on us here again.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> And it only took challenging Random a few times after her flopped down the Nazi Card "That's what the Germans said."
> 
> He went all in and more.


All in and more? Lol... You challenged that they said that - I explained that they did. I also clearly said is it the same? No.

I only linked the door to door knocking to try and let you know how humans are feeling. That they are scared, nervous, and feel violated.

But in the sake of "being right", you can't really understand that or have a normal human discussion.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Oops, not the best timing.
> 
> Random literally just associated citizens with Covid-19 to Jews when he wrote " looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews)".
> 
> My quick little exercise wasn't desperate at all as he actually linked them together, ie an argument to the absurd.
> 
> PS... Vanilla, I didn't compare the two at all as my argument is inherently about contrasting them and calling out any similarities as ridiculous. They aren't the same in context or scale. Yet again you misrepresent my ideas.
> 
> 
> 
> Simply trying to explain that some people are nervous.
> 
> An argument to the absurd? Read the rest of my comment.....
> 
> We also didn't compare contact tracers earlier. What I did do is copy your statement about them being for Health and Economic and said that's what the German's said. It is. I can also reiterate, that doesn't mean there is comparisons in outcome or intent.
> 
> I guess context only matters when it's your post.
Click to expand...

Context does matter, so does logic.

Responding about Nazism to a comment about contact tracers (the context), ie their role in safety and hopefully keeping are economy open, is an argument to the absurd.

It's pretty basic logic. And Random exposed it with gusto.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> HOOOOOLY deep-fried country southern crap batman, COVID infected folks are like the Jews now? I mean...what...what the...what? Are some of you guys having trouble getting your usual medication?
> 
> Wow...


Only in the sense that people are knocking on their doors to violate their privacy.

But make something that isn't a crazy sentiment into one. Also imply that we have mental issues.

I really struggle to understand how you guys are taking this so far out of context. It started as a joke, backcountry then questioned what the germans pushed as propaganda, and somehow now it has come that you guys think we believe this is remotely close to the holocaust.

Comprehension is really a struggle for you two.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> And it only took challenging Random a few times after her flopped down the Nazi Card "That's what the Germans said."
> 
> He went all in and more.
> 
> 
> 
> All in and more? Lol... You challenged that they said that - I explained that they did. I also clearly said is it the same? No.
> 
> I only linked the door to door knocking to try and let you know how humans are feeling. That they are scared, nervous, and feel violated.
> 
> But in the sake of "being right", you can't really understand that or have a normal human discussion.
Click to expand...

You literally made an argument, voluntarily, that included the statement "many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently". You directly compared the Nazi treatment of Jews to contact tracers role in tracking Covid-19 patients. Directly and irrefutably.

Yes, you went "all in an more".

A rational, logical conversation that respects historical context doesn't bring Nazism into the current situation. They aren't the same. I dare say it's pretty human of me to call BS on people complaining about fellow citizens calling them up to interview them about possible disease contact to the horrendous experience of Jews during WWII.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> You literally made an argument, voluntarily, that included the statement "many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently". You directly compared the Nazi treatment of Jews to contact tracers role in tracking Covid-19 patients. Directly and irrefutably.
> 
> Yes, you went "all in an more".
> 
> A rational, logical conversation that respects historical context doesn't bring Nazism into the current situation. They aren't the same. I dare say it's pretty human of me to call BS on people complaining about fellow citizens calling them up to interview them about possible disease contact to the horrendous experience of Jews during WWII.


Please tell me where I compared gassing, killing, genocide that the Jews experienced?

Pretty sure I didn't. I did compare government officials going door to door for the sake of health and the economy though.

I also clearly said it wouldn't be the same outside of that.

Just so we are clear the comparisons I drew and me saying they wouldn't have the same result...



RandomElk16 said:


> Exposes? It's what Hitler believed...
> 
> I didn't draw the parallel between that and our current state, is that what you are assuming the point of that was? What I was drawing is that they used the economy as a major part of their propaganda. Some countries they said were pushing Communism (which while is a gov system, impacts economy), but with the Jews they pushed against them because of Capitalism and used very derogatory terms for them related to money. Can you tell me which of these things you believe isn't accurate?
> 
> You are overthinking a simple comment but clearly don't want ANY correlation drawn. *The reality is, many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person* (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently. People have a cautious view of the government, and a feeling that they are still entitled to rights. Including privacy. There is even talk of virus identification. You don't think that sounds like "checking papers"?
> 
> *Is it likely to be something like what the Germans did? Of course not. We know it's extreme*, and yes there are some people who fully believe it will be that way. Is it reasonable that some people are very nervous who were told they had to go home, lose their job or business, and do what the government tells them or be jailed? Now those officials are going door to door for further enforcement? Sure it is.
> 
> There does exist an area between completely trusting the government and shutting your life down (a spot you seem comfortable with) and the tin foil crew like Oli. That middle ground of concern, skepticism, distrust... It's not a ridiculous place to be in although whenever someone seems to be in that area you come across like it's insane.


----------



## Jedidiah

RandomElk16 said:


> The reality is, many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently.


Yes, if someone has the virus that has killed a quarter million people in two and a half months, THEY SHOULD BE TREATED DIFFERENTLY. They are not like an ethnic/religious group being sought out for imprisonment and murder. They are people carrying a disease that needs to be treated and isolated from their neighbors and at risk community members. Don't downplay your assertions and act like I have a reading comprehension problem. This is honestly some bing-bong batcrap crazy hoopla you guys have going on in here.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> Yes, if someone has the virus that has killed a quarter million people in two and a half months, THEY SHOULD BE TREATED DIFFERENTLY.


This capitalized statement literally proves what me and Vanilla were saying is happening.

Thanks for putting it simply.


----------



## RandomElk16

Can't wait for them to add to the constitution "Unless you are sick".


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> Jedidiah said:
> 
> 
> 
> HOOOOOLY deep-fried country southern crap batman, COVID infected folks are like the Jews now? I mean...what...what the...what? Are some of you guys having trouble getting your usual medication?
> 
> Wow...
> 
> 
> 
> Only in the sense that people are knocking on their doors to violate their privacy.
> 
> But make something that isn't a crazy sentiment into one. Also imply that we have mental issues.
> 
> I really struggle to understand how you guys are taking this so far out of context. It started as a joke, backcountry then questioned what the germans pushed as propaganda, and somehow now it has come that you guys think we believe this is remotely close to the holocaust.
> 
> Comprehension is really a struggle for you two.
Click to expand...

I glossed over his med remark and regret that. That's uncalled for and I'm sorry for not being more diligent.

Comprehension is an interesting critique. It's hard to see your first comment as a joke given how you just laid out a fairly detailed comparison. Nor did I question the history of Nazi propaganda but I questioned your reference to it because of its spirit and content, ie they aren't remotely comparable historically.

You've gone this route a few times. You made comments about martial law and gave examples to justify the sentiment only to say you were being facetious after I pointed out it's inaccuracy. Now you "joke" about Germans only to directly connect contact tracing to persecuting Jews (do I need to quote the statement again)?

You might benefit from reading up on the long history associated with Reductio ad Hitlerum if you are sincerely confused why people might call out the BS. It's not only a blatant fallacy but one that does an immense disservice to that unique moment in historical persecution.


----------



## Jedidiah

You guys are a hoot. I'm going to go have a beer with lunch and give this thread like a one week rest, it's turned into literally the dumbest thing I've ever seen on this site. Maybe it'll be aliens and cows next time I come take a look.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I glossed over his med remark and regret that. That's uncalled for and I'm sorry for not being more diligent.
> 
> Comprehension is an interesting critique. It's hard to see your first comment as a joke given how you just laid out a fairly detailed comparison. Nor did I question the history of Nazi propaganda but I questioned your reference to it because of its spirit and content, ie they aren't remotely comparable historically.
> 
> You've gone this route a few times. You made comments about martial law and gave examples to justify the sentiment only to say you were being facetious after I pointed out it's inaccuracy. Now you "joke" about Germans only to directly connect contact tracing to persecuting Jews (do I need to quote the statement again)?
> 
> You might benefit from reading up on the long history associated with Reductio ad Hitlerum if you are sincerely confused why people might call out the BS. It's not only a blatant fallacy but one that does an immense disservice to that unique moment in historical persecution.


I only went all in because you said the Germans didn't say that. So you challenged me from a historical standpoint. They did.

I then tried to bring it back and relate it to current human emotion - which is individual and fragile. It wasn't to prove anything tinfoil. You had alluded you had heard similar comments. I made sure to agree, after I said it's extreme, that some people really believe this.

I was really just trying to tie in, that despite your confidence and belief in these processes, people are scared. They feel vulnerable and violated. Maybe try to understand that instead of saying science or only looking at the major scale (holocaust) and look at the early part. The part Jed so eloquently put - people are going to be treated different. And they don't want to be.

No where in my statements was I doing a disservice to Jews. Also go ahead and now make it sound like I joke about the holocaust.What I was drawing is a conclusion that often times government over-reach begins with a sentiment of "for the greater good". My family is German and Polish, and came to America to escape those things. So yeah, pretty familiar.

I was being facetious about Martial Law. I figured you could comprehend that we weren't talking about textbook declaration. What we were talking about is businesses being shutdown by force. Business owners have been jailed for violating that. It wasn't a far-fetched statement and I felt it made the point, which was in response to you saying we have had a pathetic response. I took to that because that pathetic response has resulted in tens of millions being unemployed and business owners who put their blood, sweat, tears, and a lifetime into their business were FORCED to let that all go.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> You literally made an argument, voluntarily, that included the statement "many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently". You directly compared the Nazi treatment of Jews to contact tracers role in tracking Covid-19 patients. Directly and irrefutably.
> 
> Yes, you went "all in an more".
> 
> A rational, logical conversation that respects historical context doesn't bring Nazism into the current situation. They aren't the same. I dare say it's pretty human of me to call BS on people complaining about fellow citizens calling them up to interview them about possible disease contact to the horrendous experience of Jews during WWII.
> 
> 
> 
> Please tell me where I compared gassing, killing, genocide that the Jews experienced?
> 
> Pretty sure I didn't. I did compare government officials going door to door for the sake of health and the economy though.
> 
> I also clearly said it wouldn't be the same outside of that.
> 
> Just so we are clear the comparisons I drew and me saying they wouldn't have the same result...
> 
> 
> 
> RandomElk16 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Exposes? It's what Hitler believed...
> 
> I didn't draw the parallel between that and our current state, is that what you are assuming the point of that was? What I was drawing is that they used the economy as a major part of their propaganda. Some countries they said were pushing Communism (which while is a gov system, impacts economy), but with the Jews they pushed against them because of Capitalism and used very derogatory terms for them related to money. Can you tell me which of these things you believe isn't accurate?
> 
> You are overthinking a simple comment but clearly don't want ANY correlation drawn. *The reality is, many people are very afraid of someone going door to door, looking for one type of person* (covid infected/jews) and treating them and anyone that has contacted them differently. People have a cautious view of the government, and a feeling that they are still entitled to rights. Including privacy. There is even talk of virus identification. You don't think that sounds like "checking papers"?
> 
> *Is it likely to be something like what the Germans did? Of course not. We know it's extreme*, and yes there are some people who fully believe it will be that way. Is it reasonable that some people are very nervous who were told they had to go home, lose their job or business, and do what the government tells them or be jailed? Now those officials are going door to door for further enforcement? Sure it is.
> 
> There does exist an area between completely trusting the government and shutting your life down (a spot you seem comfortable with) and the tin foil crew like Oli. That middle ground of concern, skepticism, distrust... It's not a ridiculous place to be in although whenever someone seems to be in that area you come across like it's insane.
> 
> Click to expand...
Click to expand...

It's fun watching your arguments unfold.

I'll make it easy, "Please tell me where I compared gassing, killing, genocide that the Jews experienced? Pretty sure I didn't" is a perfect example of a strawman. I never made that argument and claiming otherwise is about as tenable as your claim about me calling people idiots.

I did highlight your exact quote. The unique persecution of Jews in the way you laid out IS NOT historically comparable to contact tracing possible Covid-19 patients.

You continue to fulfill the argument to the absurd.

The way not to avoid that is to not bring Nazism into the conversation in the first place. It's actually pretty easy. The argument about privacy and government does not rely on absurd comparisons to Nazism. In fact, it's weakened by such fallacious comparisons.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> You guys are a hoot. I'm going to go have a beer with lunch and give this thread like a one week rest, it's turned into literally the dumbest thing I've ever seen on this site. Maybe it'll be aliens and cows next time I come take a look.


Maybe the aliens will take the cows from us that we are having to kill because of the gaps in the meat supply chain?

Never know. Come back next week and we will see. -^|^-


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I glossed over his med remark and regret that. That's uncalled for and I'm sorry for not being more diligent.
> 
> Comprehension is an interesting critique. It's hard to see your first comment as a joke given how you just laid out a fairly detailed comparison. Nor did I question the history of Nazi propaganda but I questioned your reference to it because of its spirit and content, ie they aren't remotely comparable historically.
> 
> You've gone this route a few times. You made comments about martial law and gave examples to justify the sentiment only to say you were being facetious after I pointed out it's inaccuracy. Now you "joke" about Germans only to directly connect contact tracing to persecuting Jews (do I need to quote the statement again)?
> 
> You might benefit from reading up on the long history associated with Reductio ad Hitlerum if you are sincerely confused why people might call out the BS. It's not only a blatant fallacy but one that does an immense disservice to that unique moment in historical persecution.
> 
> 
> 
> I only went all in because you said the Germans didn't say that. So you challenged me from a historical standpoint. They did.
> 
> I then tried to bring it back and relate it to current human emotion - which is individual and fragile. It wasn't to prove anything tinfoil. You had alluded you had heard similar comments. I made sure to agree, after I said it's extreme, that some people really believe this.
> 
> I was really just trying to tie in, that despite your confidence and belief in these processes, people are scared. They feel vulnerable and violated. Maybe try to understand that instead of saying science or only looking at the major scale (holocaust) and look at the early part. The part Jed so eloquently put - people are going to be treated different. And they don't want to be.
> 
> No where in my statements was I doing a disservice to Jews. Also go ahead and now make it sound like I joke about the holocaust.What I was drawing is a conclusion that often times government over-reach begins with a sentiment of "for the greater good". My family is German and Polish, and came to America to escape those things. So yeah, pretty familiar.
> 
> I was being facetious about Martial Law. I figured you could comprehend that we weren't talking about textbook declaration. What we were talking about is businesses being shutdown by force. Business owners have been jailed for violating that. It wasn't a far-fetched statement and I felt it made the point, which was in response to you saying we have had a pathetic response. I took to that because that pathetic response has resulted in tens of millions being unemployed and business owners who put their blood, sweat, tears, and a lifetime into their business were FORCED to let that all go.
Click to expand...

Reread the thread, I never questioned the history, I questioned your assertions and that it related in "spirit and content". Ironically, long before you went all in I made it clear that their propaganda was not in question (nor relevant). I however clearly questioned your choice to compare these two moments, which is inherent in randomly inserting Germans into the conversations at all.

Nor did I ever mention the holocaust by name. I quoted your exact and direct comparison to their historical persecution. It's a BS tactic and a historical disservice.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> The unique persecution of Jews in the way you laid out IS NOT historically comparable to contact tracing possible Covid-19 patients.


I don't think any one group will ever go through what the Jewish people have.

That said, I think it's a disservice to them if we don't draw parallels in history to make sure no group of people has rights violated in the name of "health and economy".

Drawing parallels to a set of specific conditions isn't comparing magnitude or downplaying uniqueness. You should know that.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Reread the thread, I never questioned the history, I questioned your assertions and that it related in "spirit and content". Ironically, long before you went all in I made it clear that their propaganda was not in question (nor relevant). I however clearly questioned your choice to compare these two moments, which is inherent in randomly inserting Germans into the conversations at all.
> 
> Nor did I ever mention the holocaust by name. I quoted your exact and direct comparison to their historical persecution. It's a BS tactic and a historical disservice.





backcountry said:


> And no, I'm not convinced "its pretty much" *what they said* in spirit *or content*.


Is it not "what they said" in "content"?


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Reread the thread, I never questioned the history, I questioned your assertions and that it related in "spirit and content". Ironically, long before you went all in I made it clear that their propaganda was not in question (nor relevant). I however clearly questioned your choice to compare these two moments, which is inherent in randomly inserting Germans into the conversations at all.
> 
> Nor did I ever mention the holocaust by name. I quoted your exact and direct comparison to their historical persecution. It's a BS tactic and a historical disservice.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> And no, I'm not convinced "its pretty much" *what they said* in spirit *or content*.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Is it not "what they said" in "content"?
Click to expand...

This will be fun.

First, you ignored the element of "I'm not convinced" in relation to "it's pretty much" what they said. That was a direct response to your quoted assertion.

Was their content about behaving in a certain way to prevent the spread of a biological disease? Was their language aimed at compelling people "to stay safe" and "stay home" to protect themselves and their community from said disease (*)? Was the content legitimately aimed at stopping their hospitals from being over run and reducing disease related deaths?

Back to my first response.....Oh please share more. I can't wait to see what other collateral you throw in.

If not, you'll notice my quote was about your false assertion in your argument that "it's pretty much" what they said. I didn't deny their propaganda existed, I denied it was how you grossly generalized and tried to compare.

They aren't the same in content or spirit.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> The unique persecution of Jews in the way you laid out IS NOT historically comparable to contact tracing possible Covid-19 patients.
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think any one group will ever go through what the Jewish people have.
> 
> That said, I think it's a disservice to them if we don't draw parallels in history to make sure no group of people has rights violated in the name of "health and economy".
> 
> Drawing parallels to a set of specific conditions isn't comparing magnitude or downplaying uniqueness. You should know that.
Click to expand...

Yes, the all to common default to comparing any issue to "Germans" is inherently comparing apples to oranges in magnitude which is why it's a glaring fallacy. Like I said, this is basic logic. And I think if you highlight the unique differences you have a inkling on why it's a bogus interjection.

The systematic persecution of Jews (your direct comparison I've quoted multiple times) is not analagous to contact tracing for an actual biological disease.

Once again....there is a way, a myriad of them, to support personal beliefs about privacy and government intervention without resorting to absurd analogies. It's not a new criticism and it retains it's validity given how commonly people are jumping to such extreme comparisons.


----------



## Vanilla

Just to bring this full circle:

I have very little doubt Patagonia is behind coronavirus. I bet backcountry can’t prove otherwise!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> Just to bring this full circle:
> 
> I have very little doubt Patagonia is behind coronavirus. I bet backcountry can't prove otherwise!


Wearing my Patagonia Sunstretch shirt now. I find their textiles are second to none even if I think some of their marketing slogans are bunk. Can't recommend their sun shirts enough, at least on sale.

Thanks for rehashing that old, useless barb. Grateful for good outdoor gear.


----------



## middlefork

Vanilla said:


> Just to bring this full circle:
> 
> I have very little doubt Patagonia is behind coronavirus. I bet backcountry can't prove otherwise!


I have to think old Yvon must have out fished you a day or two :smile:


----------



## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> I have to think old Yvon must have out fished you a day or two :smile:


Nah. I just REALLY can't stand giant hypocrites. We could turn this into a 2,000 post thread quickly if you want me to get started on Patagonia and then watch backcountry cry about it.

Not sure I have the attention span, but I'm ready to give it the good old college try!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> middlefork said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have to think old Yvon must have out fished you a day or two
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nah. I just REALLY can't stand giant hypocrites. We could turn this into a 2,000 post thread quickly if you want me to get started on Patagonia and then watch backcountry cry about it.
> 
> Not sure I have the attention span, but I'm ready to give it the good old college try!
Click to expand...

You've tried to relitigate that years old thread a few times with little success.

Interesting comment about hypocrisy given your previous claim and petty insult that someone else was "just wanting to argue dumb things for the sake of arguing".

I do enjoy your adjectives and exaggerations. Butthurt, cry, expert....like I said, your posts default to caricatures and rarely the actual content of posts.


----------



## RandomElk16

While I am all for opening back up - I still feel like Utah is rushing. "Orange" allowed most of us to do everything we were comfortable doing. 

Now that it's yellow, here is changes I saw that would impact my day to day:

-Home depot was no longer really cleaning between customers. They instead would occasionally brush with a soaking wet rag
-Most gyms had capacity limits, equipment distancing, and one hour reservations. Now, no limits, no reservations, pools and group fitness opening back up, basketball leagues back up. 
-Gas station attendants seem to have abandoned the gloves. Not going to pretend I didn't like them grabbing the mouth-spout of your monster can with gloves as opposed to bare handed


These are minor, I know. I haven't gone back to the gym yet (made home gym investments during this) and I don't go out a lot. I just remember feeling a "wow" as I was out a little bit this weekend. I didn't read all the adjustments between orange and yellow. My employees are going to work at home until we are "green".

With that in mind, what changes did you see over the weekend? Have you seen a benefit? Potentially there are companies or jobs that came back with "yellow" that couldn't with "orange".


I think we could have rode Orange for the month of May just fine. Again, while I am pro-open I don't want two months of quarantine to be wasted. Really, some of the safety requirements they had should be permanent.


----------



## DallanC

RandomElk16 said:


> While I am all for opening back up - I still feel like Utah is rushing. "Orange" allowed most of us to do everything we were comfortable doing.
> 
> ----
> 
> I think we could have rode Orange for the month of May just fine. Again, while I am pro-open I don't want two months of quarantine to be wasted. Really, some of the safety requirements they had should be permanent.


No, there are huge breakthroughs on fighting covid19.

It got missed in the other arguing but I already posted Sorrento Therapeutics announced friday they have *100% covid 19* cure via antibodies: STI-1499. Their stock is going off into the stratosphere, Goldman bought 1,000,000 shares of Sorento just as the news broke. I luckily bought in quickly... if this keeps going like it is, i'll buy me a CWMU Bull tag someday 

Sorrento's discovery is being tested with Mount Sinai to make a single dose shot called Body Shield.

https://www.msn.com/en-US/health/me...body-shield/ar-BB13NgfG?ocid=FinanceShimLayer

-DallanC


----------



## RandomElk16

DallanC said:


> No, there are huge breakthroughs on fighting covid19.
> 
> It got missed in the other arguing but I already posted Sorrento Therapeutics announced friday they have *100% covid 19* cure via antibodies: STI-1499. Their stock is going off into the stratosphere, Goldman bought 1,000,000 shares of Sorento just as the news broke. I luckily bought in quickly... if this keeps going like it is, i'll buy me a CWMU Bull tag someday
> 
> Sorrento's discovery is being tested with Mount Sinai to make a single dose shot called Body Shield.
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-US/health/me...body-shield/ar-BB13NgfG?ocid=FinanceShimLayer
> 
> -DallanC


Won't FDA approval take a long time on something like this? Curious why this would be approved faster than a vaccine (which have long been developed by now, but have rigorous trials).


----------



## backcountry

I think there was data analysis to support red to orange, even if I disagreed with it. 

Orange to yellow? Seemed political without as much data driven justification. Our numbers have stayed near/around the plateau. And Washington Co should not have been allowed given their growth curve; the number of cases there in the last week is not a good sign, especially now with Zion open.

We only have one therapeutic approved so what's on the horizon as potential treatment has no bearing on current medical and policy choices. 

Our restaurants are hit and miss. I know multiple friends have said sanitation measures have decreased and multiple businesses are back to normal procedures, including distancing. Local health department has taken a hands off approach when called as it's all just unenforceable guidelines (no quotes as it's second hand conversations). 


Friends have been approached and mocked as "sheeple" for wearing masks in public spaces.

Luckily many businesses are maintaining curbside delivery for free so our household can start shopping. I hope that stays part of the "new normal" until we have a vaccine. 

Local hospital....top notch! We had an ER visit last week and they were doing great.

So yes, I think the state is rushing a bit under political pressure. But only time will tell. But my view is biased by living in a rural region whose commissioner posted Plandemic, so I'm a bit skeptical my area's politicians are even educated properly to begin with.


----------



## 2full

I personally think it was still too early to go to yellow in S Utah. The cases have not gone down yet. Would like to have seen some decrease first. 
I don't have any studies, links, or surveys for support of anything. Just my opinion and gut feeling. 
I have stayed out of this discussion because it got so heated.


----------



## aspiring_hunter

Guess I'll throw my 2 cents in here for fun. I'm a research analyst by trade so a lot of my work the last few weeks. Has been working through the economic repercussions of the virus. So here are a few of my thoughts. 

Reopening: Is a double edged sword, the US sorely needs the economy to return to normal. We have falling inflation which is incredibly dangerous. If we hit deflation, contrary to J. Powell's current comments, the US will probably see negative interest rates. I don't think I need to explain why negative interest rates are horrible. 
On the other side, we are trying to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system to avoid excessive virus deaths. Utah has done a very good job at this so far. It is possible that we will see a boom in cases, at which point we will probably see restrictions coming back into play. Moving towards full employment again seems like a good step given all the moving pieces.

Economics: we have a huge problem that many are probably not focused on interest rates are actually effectively rising right now because inflation has come tumbling down. The natural response is to hoard cash in times like this which in turn decreases inflation. This downward spiral of hoarding cash and falling prices levels (deflation) can really only be solved ( and barely at that) by negative interest rates. Negative rates and inflated asset prices is a problem Japan has been dealing with for 30 years and not been able to solve in a substantial way. (You will notice I didn't touch on the soaring national debt, this is a modest problem also, but probably less so at present that deflation fears)

My point being, while I understand it is intimidating to return to work with the virus still being spread; It really is an economic necessity to return the economy to normal ASAP.


----------



## DallanC

RandomElk16 said:


> Won't FDA approval take a long time on something like this? Curious why this would be approved faster than a vaccine (which have long been developed by now, but have rigorous trials).


Not really... thats one of the things the Government changed is removing alot of restrictions and liability in the mad-dash to come up with a "cure".

Once you say your research is for the "coronavirus" its kindof the wild west right now with experimenting and testing. Going to be interesting to see how this turns out.

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

RandomElk16 said:


> With that in mind, what changes did you see over the weekend? Have you seen a benefit? Potentially there are companies or jobs that came back with "yellow" that couldn't with "orange".


First, the observations. (Happy Valley)

1. I was off Saturday and drove past Home Depot. It was a freakin madhouse. The parking lot appeared to be completely full, all the way out to the street. I don't think any social distancing guidelines could be implemented there, even if willing by management, based on the crowd in the store. I was so glad I didn't have to go in there.

2. Next door, the mall looked to be a ghost town.

3. According to multiple people, Provo Boat Harbor was also a madhouse from morning to late. So were the trails along the river.

4. I took the family to Arctic Circle for shakes in the evening. It seemed business as usual there and in the surrounding businesses.

5. Our business has been open throughout, but it appears that going from orange to yellow hasn't changed the protocols we set up to operate through the pandemic. We have changed nothing at this time and continue to be very busy.

Now the opinion.

1. I think there is little question that going from orange to yellow was a nod to the political far right of the state, which is increasingly making opposition to any covid restrictions a "litmus test" for being part of that group. I don't think the science supported the change, but if we keep the testing and contact tracing going *and* most people don't lose their minds and go crazy with the loosened restrictions, we might not have disastrous results. Nevertheless, I might have preferred we stay in orange thru the end of the month.

2. There will be more "breakthroughs" announced in the coming weeks along the lines of what Dallan posted as well as vaccine breakthroughs. Some will pan out, some won't, but slowly we will be increasing our vaccine and therapeutic options. I'm not as pessimistic as some are about the long term. The shorter term could be a different story, but there are still a lot of unknowns.


----------



## CPAjeff

Spent the weekend at the family cabin near Alton, drove over to Panguitch Lake, Cedar Breaks NM, and then to Bryce Canyon. Although some places were still closed down, it appeared to be mostly back to business as usual. There were a handful of individuals wearing masks. 

It sure is gorgeous this time of year down there!


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I think there was data analysis to support red to orange, even if I disagreed with it.
> 
> Orange to yellow? Seemed political without as much data driven justification. Our numbers have stayed near/around the plateau. And Washington Co should not have been allowed given their growth curve; the number of cases there in the last week is not a good sign, especially now with Zion open.
> 
> We only have one therapeutic approved so what's on the horizon as potential treatment has no bearing on current medical and policy choices.
> 
> Our restaurants are hit and miss. I know multiple friends have said sanitation measures have decreased and multiple businesses are back to normal procedures, including distancing. Local health department has taken a hands off approach when called as it's all just unenforceable guidelines (no quotes as it's second hand conversations).
> 
> Friends have been approached and mocked as "sheeple" for wearing masks in public spaces.
> 
> Luckily many businesses are maintaining curbside delivery for free so our household can start shopping. I hope that stays part of the "new normal" until we have a vaccine.
> 
> Local hospital....top notch! We had an ER visit last week and they were doing great.
> 
> So yes, I think the state is rushing a bit under political pressure. But only time will tell. But my view is biased by living in a rural region whose commissioner posted Plandemic, so I'm a bit skeptical my area's politicians are even educated properly to begin with.


We don't often agree - but the first part about data is accurate. I figured we would give orange at least two full weeks, then a week or two for analysis. The change to Yellow didn't have data outside the same data they used to move to orange. Any uptick in cases will be delayed.

Agree on healthcare (hope all is ok). Went to WeeCare for my son Sunday - he had something happen on the mountain Saturday either a burn or bite. Their procedures are still great, except when they were going to let me use the "sick patient" bathroom since the well patient was occupied.

I don't get the mask thing. If I'm not wearing one, leave me alone. If you are wearing one, I will also leave you alone. You feel that's helping others and should be entitled to do so. I guess that's maybe a small town thing.

I did think the KSL article on food delivery was interesting, because I noticed the same thing. Menu prices are inflated, there is a delivery fee, and they hid fees in with taxes. Hopefully better delivery models come out of this.

I have absolutely loved the grocery delivery app we have been using and am not sure I will ever go to Costco or Sam's again. Certainly not during a weekend.


----------



## Brettski7

RandomElk16 said:


> While I am all for opening back up - I still feel like Utah is rushing. "Orange" allowed most of us to do everything we were comfortable doing.
> 
> Now that it's yellow, here is changes I saw that would impact my day to day:
> 
> -Home depot was no longer really cleaning between customers. They instead would occasionally brush with a soaking wet rag
> -Most gyms had capacity limits, equipment distancing, and one hour reservations. Now, no limits, no reservations, pools and group fitness opening back up, basketball leagues back up.
> -Gas station attendants seem to have abandoned the gloves. Not going to pretend I didn't like them grabbing the mouth-spout of your monster can with gloves as opposed to bare handed
> 
> These are minor, I know. I haven't gone back to the gym yet (made home gym investments during this) and I don't go out a lot. I just remember feeling a "wow" as I was out a little bit this weekend. I didn't read all the adjustments between orange and yellow. My employees are going to work at home until we are "green".
> 
> With that in mind, what changes did you see over the weekend? Have you seen a benefit? Potentially there are companies or jobs that came back with "yellow" that couldn't with "orange".
> 
> I think we could have rode Orange for the month of May just fine. Again, while I am pro-open I don't want two months of quarantine to be wasted. Really, some of the safety requirements they had should be permanent.


Utah made the right call.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## RandomElk16

Brettski7 said:


> Utah made the right call.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Thorough analysis. Exactly the conversation I was looking to spark. :mrgreen:


----------



## Brettski7

RandomElk16 said:


> Thorough analysis. Exactly the conversation I was looking to spark. :mrgreen:


No analysis needed. UT, to me, has pretty much seemed business as usual anyways, for the most part. We have very low numbers for COVID. Our hospitals are not burdened whatsoever and never really were. It's pretty self explanatory.

Edit: yes I guess that could be counted as analysis but I really don't cause I have a different view and experience on real analysis.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

17 new cases in SW Utah today, 16 in Washington Co. That is a horrible number given the growth it represents.

I sincerely hope we don't experience the growth being seen in rural areas across the US. Iron Co is fairing better than Washington Co but our older population and lower socioeconomic status doesn't bode well for medical outcomes.


----------



## Brettski7

backcountry said:


> 17 new cases in SW Utah today, 16 in Washington Co. That is a horrible number given the growth it represents.
> 
> I sincerely hope we don't experience the growth being seen in rural areas across the US. Iron Co is fairing better than Washington Co but our older population and lower socioeconomic status doesn't bode well for medical outcomes.


I'd have to ask my wife but depending on how Utah is now handling testing it could be expected to see increases in "new" cases.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> 17 new cases in SW Utah today, 16 in Washington Co. That is a horrible number given the growth it represents.


11% of the statewide total today. That is pretty high. Ouch.

Considering that Washington county was one of the strongest voices for "yellow", it could be ironic if that trend continues.


----------



## backcountry

Brettski,

According to Health Department it's the same as it's been for a while....ie at least one mild symptom. 

I know multiple people who've tried to be tested without a symptom and couldn't get an order.

So according to published standards and numbers this indicates an increase in transmission. There was an article about the recent growth there and they interviewed a lead at IMC who was concerned enough to recommend returning to stricter protocols. But he has no authority to do so.

Hopefully they are just cases running through family units interacting more and not "community spread". Haven't seen an article detailing it yet given its only been a few hours.


----------



## backcountry

For some levity


----------



## neverdrawn

backcountry said:


> For some levity


Browns winning the Super Bowl is the only one I don't believe could happen&#129315;


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> For some levity


Low-key forgot that Australia was burning to the ground. Don't even remember the news of it officially going out. That's the reality we are in.

Didn't even bother to dive into the Murder Hornets stuff lol.

Probably the nicest thing about quarantine is I can choose my level of exposure to trending news. I've allowed myself to forget, in long stints of time, that it's an election year too :mrgreen:


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, I listened to a political podcast for the first time in weeks and turned it off. No interest right now. But we were spoiled pre-Covid as we don't own a television or watch news. Occasionally stream a program but choose to stay away from most of televised news media.

I got a laugh out of the murder hornets stories. Hopefully that doesn't bite me in hindsight. This comic ties in even better now.


----------



## bowgy

Interesting take;-)


----------



## bowgy

backcountry said:


> For some levity


Police have been contacted in response to the murder hornets. They are using the SWAT team to set up a sting operation.

They will probably Raid the place.


----------



## RandomElk16

bowgy said:


> Police have been contacted in response to the murder hornets. They are using the SWAT team to set up a sting operation.
> 
> They will probably Raid the place.


Ayyyyyy :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen:


----------



## backcountry

bowgy said:


> Police have been contacted in response to the murder hornets. They are using the SWAT team to set up a sting operation.
> 
> They will probably Raid the place.


----------



## shaner

Gasoline at Maverik jumped from $1.85 to $2.15 today, just in time for my trip to Powell tomorrow.


----------



## bowgy

backcountry said:


>


Good, I thought that the puns would BEE too INVASIVE:shock:


----------



## RandomElk16

bowgy said:


> Good, I thought that the puns would BEE too INVASIVE:shock:


Your puns are an unbeelievable. Truly a sight to beehold.


----------



## backcountry

Washington Co had another 16 new cases. 3 in Iron Co. which is big for us but not easy to draw a conclusion from one day of spikes. 

Another fatality for our health department region as well. 

Overall the SW region is experiencing the opposite of what we want in Covid-19 trends.


----------



## bowgy

backcountry said:


> Washington Co had another 16 new cases. 3 in Iron Co. which is big for us but not easy to draw a conclusion from one day of spikes.
> 
> Another fatality for our health department region as well.
> 
> Overall the SW region is experiencing the opposite of what we want in Covid-19 trends.


I am sure with a lot of things opening back up that we will see it increase some more in the next week or so.


----------



## backcountry

That is one of the very real possibilities but one we hope to avoid. And these numbers would still be a reflection of the "Orange" level guidelines (5 days average onset of symptoms + roughly 2 days to test). Doesn't bode well for the change to yellow this past weekend.

Ideally, to stay at lower levels of restrictions, we are able to isolate carriers before they infect more than one person (keep R0 below 1 regionally). Right now the data shows something isn't likely working (one or more of these): individuals aren't following social distancing guidelines; aren't self-quarantining; contact tracing isn't keep up; etc. Hard to guess exactly what, as it I can't find county level data on the state site that exposes community spread vs known contact. 

From what I understand Washington Co. was experiencing about 2% daily growth in caseload before we downgraded at the beginning of the month. They've now jumped to 6-8%, or higher, for multiple days. That's still less than many places nationally but the trend hasn't been good for about 10 days now. I haven't been back through the state plan but I'm guessing sustained growth shouldn't bode well for likely measures needed in the near future (if it keeps up). What some are willing to tolerate locally may not align with suppressing spread and government intervention. 

So it goes.


----------



## DallanC

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Washington Co had another 16 new cases. 3 in Iron Co. which is big for us but not easy to draw a conclusion from one day of spikes.
> 
> Another fatality for our health department region as well.
> 
> Overall the SW region is experiencing the opposite of what we want in Covid-19 trends.


Considering the statewide count was only 134 today, that isn't good. (again)

Do you think the county commissioners will be as willing to go back to orange if the crummy statistics continue to roll in as they were to clamor for yellow designation?


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Washington Co had another 16 new cases. 3 in Iron Co. which is big for us but not easy to draw a conclusion from one day of spikes.
> 
> Another fatality for our health department region as well.
> 
> Overall the SW region is experiencing the opposite of what we want in Covid-19 trends.
> 
> 
> 
> Considering the statewide count was only 134 today, that isn't good. (again)
> 
> Do you think the county commissioners will be as willing to go back to orange if the crummy statistics continue to roll in as they were to clamor for yellow designation?
Click to expand...

Washington Co. seemed more reasonable than Iron Co. but who knows. Cozzens (Iron Co) has stopped posting daily figures to his social media which is a bit convenient. But like I said, he forwarded Plandemic and the Bakersfield duo on his page so I'm not optimistic about his scientific literacy. I don't see our commissioners in Iron Co. changing rhetorical course without it getting really bad.

Hopefully it's all an inconvenient blip and numbers decrease. There's always the chance it could still be primarily spreading through households or family units but I'm not optimistic about that currently given steady hospitalization rate and another fatality.

Fingers crossed I'm wrong. I'd love to have 4-8 weeks of closer to "normal" as a high risk household before having to proactively become more restrictive again in the early fall. We'll have to be cautious ahead of normal flu season and thousands of students potentially (big IF from current trends and University communication) returning to the area isn't exactly exciting health risk wise.


----------



## backcountry

Catheder,

Do you have any insight into what's going on with TestUtah positive rates? Sounds like their procedure is providing outliers in many states. I've read a few articles but it seems like there are so many variables that could be causing the differences including possible difference in populations and their disease exposures.

Thoughts? Any links you have found valuable?


----------



## bowgy

While I was getting ready for work this morning I was listening to KSUB but not paying a lot of attention but the guy from the Southwest Health Dept was on and one thing I did hear him say was that some of the increase was due to more testing but the thing that caught my attention more was one of the reasons for going to yellow was that even with the numbers of covid going up the percentage of those needing hospitalization was down.


----------



## Vanilla

bowgy said:


> . . . the thing that caught my attention more was one of the reasons for going to yellow was that even with the numbers of covid going up the percentage of those needing hospitalization was down.


This is a portion of the narrative that is being totally lost in today's politicized arena for this discussion. All the "social distancing" and "shared sacrifice" on staying safe, staying home everyone has talked about, even from the beginning, was never about virus eradication. It was all about keeping hospital and treatment resources from being overwhelmed while we worked towards figuring this virus out.

If they feel like they will not have treatment options overrun by loosening government protocols, then that seems like a reason to proceed on working back to "normal."

There is huge dissent to that because for so many people flattening the curve to save hospitals and treatment capabilities has turned into flattening the curve until we have a cure, but that was never the intent for the government restrictions. There is a whole lot of reality on this one that I don't think any of us are really prepared to acknowledge, even if we'd all said it out loud before. This thing has caused and is going to continue to cause a whole lot of bad in many different areas of our lives. That just sucks.


----------



## backcountry

For Utah, Plan 1.0 "was all about" transmission rates. SW Utah isn't experiencing good numbers there.


----------



## backcountry

bowgy said:


> While I was getting ready for work this morning I was listening to KSUB but not paying a lot of attention but the guy from the Southwest Health Dept was on and one thing I did hear him say was that some of the increase was due to more testing but the thing that caught my attention more was one of the reasons for going to yellow was that even with the numbers of covid going up the percentage of those needing hospitalization was down.


The irony is, by pure mathematical logic, as we get more positives the percentage of hospitalizations inherently drops for a while. It, and fatality rates, are generally lagging indicators. That becomes even more an issue if it's running through younger groups. Last I saw our regional number of hospitalizations was stable even with the fatalities this month (2 of our 4).

I am skeptical we would suddenly see a threefold to fourfold increase in cases with the same protocol (1 mild symptom) in place for 3+ weeks now (longer?) but time will tell. If it continues to increase his analysis is likely wrong. If it's stable or decreases than my skepticism is likely misplaced. But from my general understanding our testing capacity has been plentiful, if not exceeded need, since the third week of April so a sudden change doesn't seem easily ascribed to mostly an increase in testing.

IMC's regional director has a very different take than the health department I guess. Which is interesting as IMC has a financial incentive to want to loosen restrictions as they are hurting with a reduction in elective and basic appointments.


----------



## bowgy

PHASED RE-OPENING GUIDELINES

https://swuhealth.org/phased-guidelines/


----------



## backcountry

bowgy said:


> PHASED RE-OPENING GUIDELINES
> 
> https://swuhealth.org/phased-guidelines/


???


----------



## bowgy

backcountry said:


> ???


Just thought that people might be interested in the guidelines that Southwest Public Health is putting out for reopening in the Yellow designation. It shows for different things from Church, to social gatherings, to gyms, etc.


----------



## backcountry

bowgy said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> ???
> 
> 
> 
> Just thought that people might be interested in the guidelines that Southwest Public Health is putting out for reopening in the Yellow designation. It shows for different things from Church, to social gatherings, to gyms, etc.
Click to expand...

Thx for clarifying. It's a good resource.

And the numbers for our region were good today. Hopefully that's the start of a new trend.


----------



## bowgy

Not our first go around with restrictions.

http://suu.centuryamerica.org/1913-...AKQ5_AANKdakw2f1um2U2fMlbUPlmw8GM7aqzNozdMFLw


----------



## Packout

That is a great link, Bowgy. Similar first quarantine length for them as our first. Time will tell how the flare-ups go for us. Thanks for posting it.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Catheder,
> 
> Do you have any insight into what's going on with TestUtah positive rates? Sounds like their procedure is providing outliers in many states. I've read a few articles but it seems like there are so many variables that could be causing the differences including possible difference in populations and their disease exposures.
> 
> Thoughts? Any links you have found valuable?


Sorry I didn't get back to you until tonight. I haven't heard anything substantive further on the subject after the first couple of articles were released to the public. My initial thought was that the lower rates, at least initially, was due to them testing basically anyone on demand as opposed to the stricter protocols in place at that time elsewhere. As protocols have been relaxed everywhere in Utah now, the expectation would be that the divergence would narrow. I haven't read anything to indicate if that has happened. Sorry I don't have more on the matter.


----------



## backcountry

No apologies needed.

Will be interesting to see what, if anything, comes of it. Dr. Dunn seems to be a stand up professional and scientist so I have full faith it will be analyzed properly now that they agreed to do a cross testing run (brain farting actual term) with the state. 

I have to say the more I read about her the more I'm glad we have her in this position for the state. The recent STAT News article, and their GRAMA request, displayed her ability to navigate the difficult politics of this pretty well.


----------



## brisket

An additional 2.4 million people filed for unemployment last week, totaling 38.6 million since the lockdowns began. 38.6 million!


----------



## Vanilla

brisket said:


> An additional 2.4 million people filed for unemployment last week, totaling 38.6 million since the lockdowns began. 38.6 million!


That is pretty insane. If someone had come to me in November and said 6 months later this would be the case, I'd have had a good chuckle. There were many indicators in the economy that the current level was not sustainable. We've been told by economists for almost two years that they were projecting another recession of some kind. But this? Yeah, this is pretty extreme.

If there is a silver lining in this, Utah reports that a decent number of people are seeking unemployment benefits with "job attached." That means that it is not considered permanent, and these employers are hoping/planning to bring these people back to the work force. Let's hope that happens sooner rather than later!


----------



## backcountry

The economic fallout is grim and I'm guessing it isn't done growing yet. Even with just social distancing measures the hardest hit industries won't be bringing back most of their staff. Restaurants, movie theaters, sporting arenas, etc will all be operating with fewer people if we continue to need to maintain 6 feet. 

And that's if they reopen at all. Take sporting events. You can only sell tickets for seats 6 feet apart but how do you control for contact during entry/exit?
Even at an extreme reduction of 80% in seating that would still leave 4-7,000 people inside and likely running into each other for hours at an NBA game.

Hotels? Do they leave rooms vacant for 2-3 days for decontamination? That's a huge reduction in turnover and cleaning crews.

It's not shocking that big events continue to voluntarily cancel worldwide. Even before government intervention much of the economic fallout was voluntary and significant. Mostly in sectors still hit and affected. And then you add into it that many Americans agree with restrictions and many want more; which is likely already translating into opting out of economic activity like movie theaters, non-essential travel, dining in, etc as they reopen. 

Local University staff and faculty are being asked to plan on restructuring. Like Vanilla said, the ranges of potential cuts are serious. I'm being told they are likely cutting entire programs and seeking a budget reduction of 20%, and that's just the first round. That will hit every local sector, especially rentals and service. I would be shocked if we ultimately don't see half our locally owned restaurants go under in the next 12 months given the loss of summer events and the first likely student body reduction we've experienced in a decade. 

Etc. Etc. Etc. When all is said and done I'm guessing 30-50% of the economic fallout will be sustained because of the voluntary reduction in activity from businesses and consumers. It's probably going to stay ugly for probably another 12-18 months, if not longer.


----------



## backcountry

See it before they delete the video and limit their free speech:


----------



## backcountry

Back to cases in S. Utah. Another day of unpleasant numbers yesterday. Dr Dunn made the below comments on Wednesday, even though the cases were relatively low for that single day.



> The uptick can't be explained by increased testing, epidemiologist Angela Dunn said.
> 
> "We're asking the community to be a little more diligent in terms of social distancing recommendations and following health guidance," Dunn said. "There is a potential for a surge in southern Utah at this point."


https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/05/20/state-sounds-warning/


----------



## bowgy

The Verizon store in St George is strong in their efforts, all of them wearing masks and only one person in the store at a time, you have to wait outside until you are escorted in and they had me wear my mask.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

In regards to the large numbers of unemployment, It's my hope that a large portion of American Manufacturing jobs return home in the wake of this pandemic. After a certain point, say, beyond free trade, you can take Globalism and shove it. All it's done is make us dependent on a foreign country that has superpower ambitions, and erode the middle class. 

Anyone else remember how many items American made items were in the stores before 1994 or 1995? I do. From water pumps in old trailers, to tape measures, to laundry hampers, we made a lot of goods. All of that stuff is now made in China or Mexico. 

William Jefferson Clinton...I have no kind words.-O,-


----------



## backcountry

Repatriating more manufacturing could be immensely beneficial in many ways but do you think Americans are willing to end their addiction to cheap consumer products?

I fear it would be a hard sell especially as inflation (likely) and recession affect millions of household budgets.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> Repatriating more manufacturing could be immensely beneficial in many ways but do you think Americans are willing to end their addiction to cheap consumer products?
> 
> I fear it would be a hard sell especially as inflation (likely) and recession affect millions of household budgets.


Good question. I have no answer. It's a multifaceted problem, that extends to quality of merchandise and loss of trade skill. Our manufacturing and trade knowledge is one reason why we won WW2. If a war broke out today with China, would we be able to do it again? American products used to be synonymous with quality. I've a number of items I bought back in the early 90's that were made in USA, and are still working/functional today.

Today's American products? not so much. Loss of trade knowledge is something i'm familiar with, and is something people should pay more attention to. For example, Take any canned product off your pantry shelf. Canned vegetable, to a can of coke. You know there are machines that were made here that sealed the lid on that can? They spit out hundreds, or thousands of cans a minute. Ever in the past open a can of coke and notice a very slight film on the top? It's an edible, non toxic oil from the sealing process. My father used to make the machines that would do this work - from scratch. Parts and all that started from solid blocks of aluminum or steel. From working in parts to assembly, he did it all since the early 70's.

Globalism has since caught up with the company he worked for. It was bought out by a larger conglomerate. What was the first thing they did? They replaced all the master craftsman, machinists of 30 plus years of experience, and replaced them with multiple positions of low skill. I call it the "people as cogs" way of doing things.

Guess what? He ended up being the last of the mohicans. This conglomerate was, up until the point of his retirement, flying him accross the country every two weeks, because he was the only one who could fix things when they went wrong. A whole crew of low skilled labor, and what they couldn't fix in two weeks, my dad can fix in two hours. So bad is the situation, he told them without meaning to sound bold, "If i can't fix it, it can't be fixed." His exact words. Sad, but that is the reality of the situation. What's also really sad, is that this knowledge, is NOT being passed along. There are no journeyman or apprentices learning from him. He's officially retired now, and they are STILL trying to bringing him across the country to fix broken crap they just no longer have the skill to fix. He's the only one that can do it.

I see this as the tip of the iceberg in American Industry. We're going to have to get over cheap Chinese made goods, or in the long term, we are going down historical drain of failed nations. Fiat currency, and printing money like it's nothing isn't doing us any good either. Stimulus checks indeed. Since 1992, I think the dollar has lost well over half its value. Sooner or later, the dollar is going to be as worthless as a freaking peso, or are those worth more now? LOL

On a side note, didn't WW2 have something to do with bringing us out of the great depression?


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Repatriating more manufacturing could be immensely beneficial in many ways but do you think Americans are willing to end their addiction to cheap consumer products?
> 
> I fear it would be a hard sell especially as inflation (likely) and recession affect millions of household budgets.


My grandma has the same solid wood, American crafted dining room table her and my grandpa had my entire life.

Then people got addicted to Ikea and changing decor over and over... and the China craze blossomed and boomed.

Why buy something once when you can buy it over and over again, I guess.


----------



## backcountry

But we know American made isn't immune from planned obsolescence either. Might actually be trademarked in America. 

Nonetheless, we'd benefit from repatriating certain key sectors, or the majority of products from them. I'm just hesitant to believe Americans are willing to live with less to increase quality of life. We are a very consumption driven culture, often more so in quantity than quality. 

Hard to predict but we do know various manufacturers and groups were sounding bells about risk before this level of dependency happened. We saw it in the PPE sector for years.


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## backcountry

Closer to home and subject....

SW Utah numbers today roughly near recent trends but big spike in hospitalizations. Well below capacity but not a good sign.


----------



## Brettski7

Today was nuts out. Stores were packed. Traffic was freaking terrible. Sportsman’s opened up both doors and no counting people in. Costco no longer had a line to let people in but still have to wear a mask. Burger bar was packed but it never slowed down. That mountain man burger was pretty good to lol. Hell I think I’d rather stayed closed so I can get around easier lol 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Lone_Hunter

Brettski7 said:


> Today was nuts out. Stores were packed. Traffic was freaking terrible. Sportsman's opened up both doors and no counting people in. Costco no longer had a line to let people in but still have to wear a mask. Burger bar was packed but it never slowed down. That mountain man burger was pretty good to lol. Hell I think I'd rather stayed closed so I can get around easier lol
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Will be interesting to see what the numbers are next week, as to if there is a spike in cases or not. If low to non existent, that will hasten to alter my slowly changing perception of this pandemic.


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## backcountry

Grim milestone today. 100,000 Americans have died in roughly 4 months. Sad reality with a ton of households left to grieve the deaths.


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## Lone_Hunter

Tell you what I'm freaking tired of. Is how this Chinese Flu has become a partisan issue. (as an aside, I'm calling it that because I dislike language that disguises the truth). I'll admit, Im very partisan in my view of politics, but enough is enough. On the left, we have complete and total authoritarian lock down. I find it disgusting. On the right, we have a complete and total push in the opposite direction with wanton abandon, and I'm not ok with that either.

In between the two polar extremes, we have..... nothing. I find it representative of the lack of unity in this country. I'm sick of the politicization, and I'm tired of COVID-19.

I also don't know who to believe anymore. All news sources follow what I outlined above. Total left, or total right. Nothing in between. I'd sooner pull out my own teeth with rusty pliers before i watch CNN or MSNBC, but Fox news is pushing to near total right as well. At least last night they were saying tantamount to reopen with caution, however that's not what people are doing. Alternate news sources you always have to be careful of. 

About the only thing that really sounds good to me, is the number of tests being conducted vs the number of positive cases. It's about all one can go on as to how much to worry about it. Which, is not much. That said, high risk spouse, means not much changes for me.

To hell with it, we are going turkey hunting this weekend, and hopefully my wife will be able to nail her first gobbler before the season closes on Sunday. At least we have public lands and lots of it. The county lockdowns sucked balls. Not being able to get into the back country is like not being able to breath.


----------



## Jedidiah

From what I can tell, all of the drummed up criticism regarding handling the outbreak has come from the democrats. From criticizing Trump for closing the country to then criticizing him for not doing enough earlier, they seem to be using the disease as a way to win the election or gain more control. This latest stimulus package was literally a case of them wasting their time to make a deal that would never pass so they could say Trump blocked them....after another relief package had just been passed.

I knew the democratic party in this country had gotten completely rotten dirty but I'm surprised to see this kind of behavior today. Maybe we should defer the election another year so they can get back to doing some real work instead of trying to create fake outrage.


----------



## backcountry

Cable "news" is just partisan entertainment. I did listen to Hannity on the AM the other morning and at least he was trying to get people to wear masks to help protect fellow citizens and maintain openings. I was impressed that he was willing to take that stand given it runs against the current of much of his audience.

I only use "print" and online news media for reliability anymore. Even then I fact check it the best I can. I think there are plenty of sources still writing quality journalism even if a bit shaded by political perspective (often in what they choose to cover).

I'm moderately hopeful that at least Utah doesn't seem to be getting much worse under looser guidelines. We won't see the bulk of case counts from any Memorial Day spread for another 5+ days but I'm feeling somewhat relieved for the first time in a while. SW Utah is experiencing growth but it hasn't surged yet. If we can live at Yellow without surging caseloads then that seems like a prudent move.

It would be nice to see more people trying to adhere to voluntary guidelines. Seeing so few people without masks in public spaces or even trying to space or limit to limit group size doesn't give me hope that vulnerable households will be able to loosen up anytime soon. 

I wish more employers were taking it seriously down here. Hearing about some of the risk management, ie lack of it, leaves me concerned for employees and how we'll fair during a likely second wave this autumn. If they aren't preparing now how are they going to protect employees if/when a second wave overlaps with the flu season?


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## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> Maybe we should defer the election another year so they can get back to doing some real work instead of trying to create fake outrage.


Joking? &#128556;&#128563;


----------



## Jedidiah

Of course. Actually this would be the perfect time to create a good system for voting online or with cell phones.


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## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> Of course. Actually this would be the perfect time to create a good system for voting online or with cell phones.


Lol.

Hackers could jump into that in their sleep.


----------



## Jedidiah

People walk into voting booths with false credentials all the time, not to mention the buses full of old folks being told to vote the party line or "you'll lose your social security and medicare!" Just set it up with multifactor authentication like anything else. Also, trying to "hack" the election wouldn't be as easy as you think, trying to create that many unique votes with distinct network signatures is impossible. MFA, certificates and a clear log of the network path to the user involved...it would be more secure than that fiasco in Florida between Bush and Gore.


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## backcountry

States that care about their citizens safety and health will find a secure solution that doesn't require people to congregate indoors to vote in early November. We are capable of mitigating the risk of Covid-19 and to our voting systems as the United States.


----------



## middlefork

Lets get the election over with and the pandemic will magically go away. :lock1:


----------



## backcountry

Good state numbers today, even if potentially related to low testing over the holiday. Actually a good couple days in a row. 

Same for SW Utah. Fingers crossed it keeps up. Seeing 7+ days of downward trends like this would be great news.


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> Lets get the election over with and the pandemic will magically go away.


Trolling?


----------



## Thanar

Hello! After quarantine, a lot of people want to rush to other countries, because everyone is tired of their city, from which no one can get out because of quarantine.
Unfortunately for you, the queues for updating a visa after quarantine will be huge! But I can help you. You ought to contact tn visa renewal
I think these guys will be able to help you, even given the huge flow of people. I myself have been using their services for quite some time and they never let me down!


----------



## backcountry

Largest single day caseload gain for Utah (215) and SW Utah (25) since this started. And that is without any backfilling yet. Probably some holdover from fewer people testing on holiday weekend but that's not exactly a good sign either (ie in community untested longer).

I was trying to be hopeful but these numbers would likely only start to represent cars from last Tuesday to Wednesday (in general). I'm not hopeful for numbers we'll start to see Sunday onward as those will represent the true weight of spread during the holiday.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

https://www.fox13now.com/news/coron...-19-deaths-reported-in-utah-and-215-new-cases

https://www.ksl.com/article/46758144/utah-sees-215-new-cases-of-covid-19-2-new-deaths

Both sources cite 2.5% increase from Wednesday. Will be interesting what numberes there will be for the next week. I'm not surprised by an increase, though I'm wondering if I should be concerned about a < 3% increase. Truly I am undecided, I don't know enough. Now if we saw 10% or greater increase.. now that would be something to get puckered up about i guess.


----------



## Gordon

Us hillbillies in Cache county got a 10% increase in cases yesterday:shock: 
100 cases in Cache but not 1 in Rich. Also no cases in Franklin, Oneida, or Bear Lake county Idaho. Can't figure that out........


----------



## backcountry

Lone,

SW Utah experienced closer to 7.5% growth. Not good.

If I was a person (1) below 60, (2)who knew they didn't have underlying risk factors, (3) was effectively practicing guidelines and (4) worked in a business doing the same than my concern probably wouldn't be amplified in an area experiencing sub 3% growth. I'd probably be paying attention to stay ahead of potential government action but not much else.

High risk households or those whose employers aren't taking appropriate precautions? It seems that metric isn't helpful. It's not a great reflection of actual risk in the community. Percent growth is a key statistic for modeling but is problematic as a tool for individual households because it ignores the number of recoveries, which is a huge factor this far into a pandemic of a respiratory virus. It just uses a denominator, total cases, that doesn't reflect current dynamics at play.

I would think R0 or comparing daily cases to a 2-3 week running average would be better for my household. I haven't run the averages in a while so right now I'm guestimating. But the numbers I'm seeing don't give me hope that we are seeing positive progress at the moment. Today could be a one off blip. It could be heavily biased by how people choose to get tested around a holiday weekend. The cases could primarily be transmissions from out of state travelers. But I'm skeptical that a holiday weekend of increased travel and social interaction won't trend the current caseload upward to problematic levels. 

Too many variables to know but not a great single day to observe for our household. Especially given how many households like ours are being pressured to return to worksites which often have pretty lax standards. Sucks as we are trying to move forward as a household and be more optimistic, but as I stated before, the uncertainty and bumpiness of this phase is tough on decision making.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Largest single day caseload gain for Utah (215) and SW Utah (25) since this started. And that is without any backfilling yet. Probably some holdover from fewer people testing on holiday weekend but that's not exactly a good sign either (ie in community untested longer).
> 
> I was trying to be hopeful but these numbers would likely only start to represent cars from last Tuesday to Wednesday (in general). I'm not hopeful for numbers we'll start to see Sunday onward as those will represent the true weight of spread during the holiday.


Definitely a weekend/holiday effect with the statewide statistics, especially since the previous 4 days numbers were inordinately low. The county numbers are a bigger hit, especially when interpreted into population density.

Statewide, we are stuck on a plateau with smaller hotspots popping up here and there, causing local distress. It looks like it might be that way for a while.


----------



## RandomElk16

Jedidiah said:


> People walk into voting booths with false credentials all the time, not to mention the buses full of old folks being told to vote the party line or "you'll lose your social security and medicare!" Just set it up with multifactor authentication like anything else. Also, trying to "hack" the election wouldn't be as easy as you think, trying to create that many unique votes with distinct network signatures is impossible. MFA, certificates and a clear log of the network path to the user involved...it would be more secure than that fiasco in Florida between Bush and Gore.


It really wouldn't though. MFA would be if you were trying to hack in as an individual - it's the main database that would be hacked and MFA has nothing to do with that. You don't have to go in as an individual voter over and over... You go in and change the whole database.

There are two countries who can do things like that. At the very least plant a massive virus in there.

It would be like the first run of the Obamacare site. Only 1000 times worse.

This doesn't mean I think old fashioned voting is the answer or can't be screwed up, doesn't mean I don't think we need a change... Only recognizes two truths: 1. Hackers are really good and 2. Building tech isn't something the gov is good at.


----------



## Brettski7

RandomElk16 said:


> It really wouldn't though. MFA would be if you were trying to hack in as an individual - it's the main database that would be hacked and MFA has nothing to do with that. You don't have to go in as an individual voter over and over... You go in and change the whole database.
> 
> There are two countries who can do things like that. At the very least plant a massive virus in there.
> 
> It would be like the first run of the Obamacare site. Only 1000 times worse.
> 
> This doesn't mean I think old fashioned voting is the answer or can't be screwed up, doesn't mean I don't think we need a change... Only recognizes two truths: 1. Hackers are really good and 2. Building tech isn't something the gov is good at.


Oh there are more than two countries capable of this.

And your right those are who we would have to worry about along with hacktivist groups also. MFA would be a good start for individuals.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Catherder

Don't tell Oli, but look how many "likes" this thread has right now. :shock:


The end is near.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Largest single day caseload gain for Utah (215) and SW Utah (25) since this started. And that is without any backfilling yet. Probably some holdover from fewer people testing on holiday weekend but that's not exactly a good sign either (ie in community untested longer).
> 
> I was trying to be hopeful but these numbers would likely only start to represent cars from last Tuesday to Wednesday (in general). I'm not hopeful for numbers we'll start to see Sunday onward as those will represent the true weight of spread during the holiday.
> 
> 
> 
> Definitely a weekend/holiday effect with the statewide statistics, especially since the previous 4 days numbers were inordinately low. The county numbers are a bigger hit, especially when interpreted into population density.
> 
> Statewide, we are stuck on a plateau with smaller hotspots popping up here and there, causing local distress. It looks like it might be that way for a while.
Click to expand...

I hope it's a product of medical choices over the weekend. I was hoping we'd going down in cases over the summer but a low level (daily) plateau seems like it would be safe for many people and avoid overwhelming systems. I've seen local chatter about moving to green which seems a stretch to me but who knows.

They just released local breakdown for SW Utah. Iron County jumped almost 9%. Seems less related to weekend effects as we've trickled in around 1 a day (about same over weekend) for a while so 5 is a noticeable increase. Still not scary to have 50 cases in a county....as long as there isn't a continued daily increase.

I feel for my friends across the country whose regions had high daily counts and then opened way up. I have friends (still largely isolated) near the NC motorway that had crowds of 4k and few people were wearing masks That could be ugly.


----------



## RandomElk16

Sucks when you see the outbreaks like the Veterans home. That led to 58 cases - 41 vets and 17 healthcare workers. A number of those vets, if not all, are in higher risk categories. 

While for the most part numbers are steady, those type of isolated-enviro outbreaks scare me. The most vulnerable all in one spot. I hope they recover. We need to continue to concentrate efforts to protect nursing homes, medical centers, senior communities, etc.. if we want to get a handle on the bottom line most important metric: deaths. While it sucks for visitors and young healthcare workers - they need to isolate as good as possible because it only takes one to wipe out a large community of folks. 

It's sad, but if I had a family member in a facility it would be face-time calls only. No visiting. If I worked at a facility, same thing. No outside contact.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> Don't tell Oli, but look how many "likes" this thread has right now. :shock:
> 
> The end is near.


I took care of that. You're welcome.


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> I took care of that. You're welcome.


ROFL...

-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

I'm sure I'll be proved wrong but it seems to me that most of the current cases are for the most part limited to small pockets and are being contact traced. It does not seem any metric put in place in Utah is being stretched to an OMG status.

If non compliance with current directives is an issue it seems we have been operating for an extended time already.


----------



## backcountry

The ultimate goal of contact tracing is to lower the caseload and prevent spread. I think it's difficult to say that's happening at the statewide level. I think many citizens are probably comfortable with the plateau especially given its being maintained with fewer restrictions. I can understand seeing some moderate success with contact tracing in that case.

But contact tracing is not successful in several areas that are experiencing noticeable growth, ie the 8-10% ranges mentioned. The medical director for Dixie continues to sound the alarm there. Even hospitalizations are way up in the county. Given the many enclaves of retirement communities there those trends aren't a healthy sign.

Or take the dire situation at the Veterans facility:



> "We do not know how COVID-19 entered the facility," said Gary Harter, executive director of Utah's Department of Veterans and Military Affairs.


https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/5...ins-near-5-positive-testing-rate-for-covid-19

I think it's a fair standard to judge such methods by how well they prevent spread into such facilities. Successful contact tracing can, and should, reduce asymptomatic spreaders in a community because they should self quarantine after being "traced" until tests come back. That clearly didn't happen for the veterans facility. And we saw another 6 new long term care facilities dealing with infections the past week.

Not to mention the Navajo Nation situation has been "OMG" for a while. They were matching or exceeding NY numbers last I read (it's been a week).


----------



## RandomElk16

I wish these embedded better. I liked this vid though.


----------



## backcountry

And we are off to the races. 

Another big day. 328 for state and 26 for my health district. 

Those shouldn't just be holdovers from low testing last weekend. And should just be the start of transmission from the holiday weekend.


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> I wish these embedded better. I liked this vid though.


That might have been my favorite analysis of our current circumstances that I've seen!

Man, people just suck.


----------



## backcountry

Double checked numbers....it's possible the spike could be related to last weekend's deficit in testing if you average over 4 days. 

The confidence in my previous post could be misplaced. Another 3-5 days of data will be revealing.


----------



## Scott99

From skimming the thread it doesn’t seem to be a big issue here but my question is are the people pro quarantine also the same way with any sickness? Just The common cold can be spread for around three days before and three days after it causes symptoms in somebody. I definitely believe in protecting those that need it. But that should be for anything. As the little things can cause major issues in someone with an underlying disease. Not just the coronavirus. So do you quarantine yourself all year round when you find out you have had some kind of germ or virus? I believe it was last year and maybe more than I know that the flu shot that was given wasn’t as effective because the strain mutated very quickly? 

I am not trying to sound naive but I believe society is spotlighting the wrong issues with coronavirus. Personally I believe you can not trust the numbers period. Reason being is they are showing more and more people were infected with it but thought it was just the flu or cold. That means as the reported numbers go higher. So do the un reported. The other issue I have with it is a lot of people are under the assumption that if you get the coronavirus you are automatically going to get the respiratory issues with it. When it reality most of us have already had some form of coronavirus but nothing came of it besides maybe a cold. The thing I think people should look at is for the people that are getting severe issues from it. It seems to be causing some long term damage. And of course there is still so much unknown about it.

Do I think we should be worried? No, but I also don’t go around others when I am sick because I don’t want to be the one responsible for giving it to someone that it can have serious/fatal consequences. 

It’s like elk hunting. I’m a new guy that asked a question on this website last year that wasn’t a smart one of me to ask. I got some general information. But nothing that provided facts (coordinates, specific locations, etc) but since then I have been able to produce my own facts. And right now we are in the between general information and facts stage of the new coronavirus. We have a cause and affect. And the possibilities of what Can happen. But we do know the long term outcome, how fast can it mutate. I guess I’m saying we just don’t know all the details but some people are thinking we do 🙂 and from the looks of everything I don’t think we should worry


----------



## backcountry

We'll written article which exposes why we mitigate novel viruses, or diseases in general, so differently. Not only did "flattening the curve" approach help prevent hospitalizations from overwhelming our medical system but it buys much needed time to discover more of its impact on the body. Five months ago we didn't have as much information and couldn't develop hypotheses like this, that might ultimately save thousands of lives in potential future waves:



> What we're saying is that maybe the best antiviral therapy is not actually an antiviral therapy. The best therapy might actually be a drug that stabilizes the vascular endothelial. We're building a drastically different concept.


https://elemental.medium.com/corona...isease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2


----------



## backcountry

Looks like 37 new cases in SW Utah which is a 9.5% increase. Regional curve continues to look poor. 

265 positives attributed to yesterday plus increases to the previous days testing as well.


----------



## backcountry

15% growth for Iron Co today. Washington Co numbers dropped for the day, so that's good. 

State reporting 258 new cases statewide. We are driving the running average up as we are past filling in the deficit from low testing the previous weekend.

Test positive rate has creeped up by more than .5% compared to previous weeks. 
I believe hospitalizations, now at 98, are up as well but can't find good data to compare to past weeks. 

I would expect positives to be correlated with Memorial Day weekend gatherings for another couple days. Then we'll get to see how those transmissions affected our future trajectory. 

It's not a shock that models are now predicting 220 fatalities by early August. I believe that is up from 140-150 back before we loosened up guidelines. That's a 46-57% increase in projected fatalities in just a month. It's looking like we'll pass 140 by the end of June if current trends hold.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I believe hospitalizations, now at 98, are up as well but can't find good data to compare to past weeks.


If you go to the case counts page and click on the toolbar "hospitalizations and mortality", a page will pop up with a running total of hospitalizations in the top right. (FWIW, today's net result on hospitalizations was a decline of one, meaning there was one more discharge or fatality than admission.) As you can see, we have been remarkably stable in the state and are down about 10 from our peak. With this recent spike in positive cases, that is something worth watching in about a week.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I believe hospitalizations, now at 98, are up as well but can't find good data to compare to past weeks.
> 
> 
> 
> If you go to the case counts page and click on the toolbar "hospitalizations and mortality", a page will pop up with a running total of hospitalizations in the top right. (FWIW, today's net result on hospitalizations was a decline of one, meaning there was one more discharge or fatality than admission.) As you can see, we have been remarkably stable in the state and are down about 10 from our peak. With this recent spike in positive cases, that is something worth watching in about a week.
Click to expand...

Thx for the correction. To clarify, you are saying watch the hospitalization in a week, given they are a lagging indicator?


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Thx for the correction. To clarify, you are saying watch the hospitalization in a week, given they are a lagging indicator?


Yes


----------



## RandomElk16

Now during a pandemic that is leading to a recession, hundreds of millions of dollars will go to replacing what already existed instead of stabilizing the economic impact that's happened to the country.


What crazy times we live in.


----------



## backcountry

Riots couldn't come at a worse time but they inherently never happen at a good time.

We are definitely going to see some peaks from these events. No way everyone was wearing masks properly and spacing well enough. Not to mention jails seem like a perfect place to transmit the disease especially when you are coughing for hours after riot control measures.


----------



## backcountry

Statewide cases today around weeklong average but SW Utah, especially Iron Co, still showing an undesirable growth pattern. 

Mayor in St George trying to challenge locals to wear masks more. 

Hopefully the protests and riots up north don't increase transmission.


----------



## backcountry

Memorial Day Weekend definitely seems to have increased cases in state totals. 

Iron Co numbers continue to be disturbing (12% growth) and regional hospitalizations have climbed (almost 7%). There are now 18 people hospitalized down here which represents 39% of all regional hospitalizations since this started. 

Not looking forward to seeing an impact from close contact protests.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Having a relative working inside the medical system in Utah county is a nice way to have your ear to the ground. From my sister in law to my wife:

Is there an increase in covid patients in the hospital after memorial day? Yes.
Is COVID going away? No. It's here to stay.

That second part i find depressing. I was hoping the summer would really put that thing on a backburner or let it die off to some percentage that was too low to track or be bothered with.

Next flu season should be fun, especially when kids start going back to school. Since my wife has a combination of 3 pre-existing conditions, it's almost guaranteed she gets put on a ventilator if she catch's it. So I have to wonder what the odds are I'll be a widower next year. My heart aches at that thought. It's all very depressing.


----------



## backcountry

I think of your household often, Lone. I hope she and her employer continue to prevent transmission. I hope you are able to breathe a sigh of relief from us all getting past this thing sooner than later.

Besides my MIL I've learned to be more vigilant for myself as info has come out. My parents and I are all hypertensive without medication;not scary numbers but all of us are genetically predisposed and dealt with it starting in our mid-30s. I also lost much of my vision to are rare type of ischemia in my optic nerve and have unexplained scarring in my lungs (I went through a lot of testing in my 30s). I hadn't even thought of all those things when all of this started because we were so vigilant for my MIL. But now that all of the vascular elements have been documented I'm pretty vigilant for myself as well.

Continued luck, Lone. Your household isn't alone in this fight.


----------



## backcountry

Numbers today suck! We are spiking and not subtly. Memorial Day weekend sent us in the wrong direction. I had allowed myself a glimmer of hope a few weeks ago. It felt good but it was misplaced.

16% increase in Iron Co. 

Our household, and millions across the country, may never be able to experience any loosening before the autumn because of how the state, and nation, rushed through the stages. 

And to put it in perspective....if we don't tamp down the spread than we start the beginning of traditional influenza season with significantly more cases of Covid-19 than we experienced at the beginning of this. That is not good for any citizen or managing medical resources.

Please socially distance. Please wear masks. Please encourage businesses to up their game; not just consumer facing ones either but indoor meetings, etc (Dr Dunn is talking about this).

We don't find sustainable economic recovery if we keep getting workers and consumers sick.


----------



## backcountry

I will say Cedar City, in partnership with a local business called DecorWorx, is trying to reinforce guidelines. Proud of them.


----------



## Catherder

I sure as heck hope that Herbert doesn't cave to nonscientific pressure and go to green status this week. The science is crystal clear that would be a bad move. Dr. Dunn was unequivocal in her opinion on it yesterday. 

I think "yellow" can work but people have to remain on board. They haven't been lately in many areas.


----------



## middlefork




----------



## backcountry

Somehow that song is an earworm. I can't get it out of my head. 

That song and video couldn't be more timely.


----------



## brisket




----------



## Lone_Hunter

https://www.fox13now.com/news/coron...h-to-remain-at-yellow-risk-level-for-covid-19


----------



## backcountry

Glad they cooler heads prevailed and they took a data based decision making approach.

And today's numbers 😔🤮😲

440? 4.1% overall growth. 30% higher than previous high without the effect of backfilling.

I guess at least Iron Co had a mellower day.


----------



## backcountry

Great Op Ed from doctors in St George.

https://www.thespectrum.com/story/o...tors-wearing-masks-coronavirus-you-should-too


----------



## Vanilla

Today’s number was crazy. That is a huge uptick, on the heels of a steady increase. It should be expected to see some increase. 

I’m hypothesizing here, but I really think their messaging around the color system has been terrible. This might be the first real beef I have with how Utah has handled this. I think for the vast majority of people, when we went from red, to orange, to yellow they thought that it meant it was “more safe” out there. For anyone who has concern about contracting the corona, there has never been a less “safe” moment than right now. 

That is not the intent of the color system, but the messaging hasn’t been good on that.


----------



## DallanC

Very well stated.






-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Numbers are horrible today. And these don't likely represent the full weight of transmission from protests yet. 

Even when we subtract all of the cases from the Bear River District the numbers are unhealthy and an increase from weeks before. Hospitalizations remain steadily high which doesn't bode well for fatalities. IMHE's models for fatalities are extremely disheartening. 

Please communicate with your local representatives and businesses and ask them to remain vigilant. We are nowhere near ready for Green and if we keep on this trajectory there may be rational to increase our phase which nobody wants.


----------



## Vanilla

I thought 330 last week was bad, until yesterday's 440. And then, until today's almost 550. 

People can decide for themselves how worried they should be about contracting the corona. I'm not going to lecture anyone or tell anyone how to feel. But I'll reiterate, if you are concerned about contracting the virus, there has never been a worse time than right now. Don't think that the state's discussion on the color wheel is an indication of safety or probability of community spread. 

I want to make clear, I'm not suggesting to anyone how they should feel. I don't even care if we go to green status as a state. I just want people to truly understand what the purpose of that is and not be misled into thinking it is something it is not.


----------



## RandomElk16

I was perfectly happy with Orange. I still don't know why we feel the need, up by 20 in the 4th quarter, to half-*** it and throw the game away and that's what we did.

I was pro-open to the extent people could get livelihoods back. Orange provided that. We were paying attention and listening and the Herbert (and his bro Cox who shouldn't be voted in) decided that Dr. Dunn, who has done a great job, shouldn't be listened to anymore.

As Vanilla eluded - it was funny for the state to say "yellow" and people just jump all in. "Oh boss says we are good". Like them saying a word suddenly changed your personal circumstance.


----------



## Catherder

RandomElk16 said:


> As Vanilla eluded - it was funny for the state to say "yellow" and people just jump all in. "Oh boss says we are good". Like them saying a word suddenly changed your personal circumstance.


Yep, that is exactly what happened. As Nilla said earlier, it was a fail in the messaging. Too many people interpreted the progressively milder ratings as an "all clear" sign. It didn't help that a great many municipal leaders were begging/screaming/demanding the lower classifications. (They still are FWIW)

The ironic thing about the "yellow" rating is that if one reads what it is supposed to mean and the recommendations involved, it would still provide the protections recommended by Dr. Dunn and her public health colleagues and still allow most to get back to work.

However, folks just figured it meant we were at business as usual.


----------



## backcountry

I don't have strong opinions about our Governor (or Cox) but it's been obvious the legislature and many local representatives have applied pretty intense pressure for him to open up. It's not just my commissioner mouthing off at him. 

The messaging could have been better but at least in my area many people were never bought into the science behind the risk from the get go. SW Utah got lucky early on because travel hadn't seeded the virus here as heavily before the state acted. But the local approach is hurting us now. We have time to change course but I'm not seeing much evidence it will happen.

People have choice on how to navigate these situations but a viral pandemic throws us a unique curve ball when it comes to balancing individual and community needs. I recognize we couldn't stay on Red for long but I think we really did miss an opportunity to have local governments and community leaders foster greater buy in with the transition. Cedar tried but I think we needed to hear a more direct challenge and a message that highlighted community health is important for keeping our economy running. I'm nervous for the warehouse and office workers right now but an even bigger test is going to be the university having classroom lectures again and I'm not convinced we'll see strong enough mitigation.

So it goes. We called the hotline for the first time for "advice" today. We've done our best to avoid contact with people as a high risk household as we reintroduce low risk activity but sadly many people aren't great at socially distancing; even those who try fall back on old behaviors on accident. We just have to cross our fingers that O2 saturation numbers we are seeing aren't COVID-19 related. Granted without a uniquely targeted treatment I'm not sure it matters for us.

Best of luck to those trying to safely navigate this persistent little bugger.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I don't have strong opinions about our Governor (or Cox) but it's been obvious the legislature and many local representatives have applied pretty intense pressure for him to open up. It's not just my commissioner mouthing off at him.


If it is any consolation, it is now our butt head commissioners clamoring for "green".

https://kutv.com/news/local/utah-county-hopes-to-advance-to-green-virus-safety-level


----------



## backcountry

It seems like it's happening everywhere I know people.

It's odd to me that communities with universities aren't being more cautious. SUU drives a ton of our local economy. I would think our county and city would want to take a measured approach to move through the phases that balances obvious short term needs (economy and health) alongside medium to long-term ones. Especially Cedar, given Shakespeare, Summer Games and now several other summer events have voluntarily cancelled. If we can't keep students safely on campus it's going to devastate just about every sector here.

And that's just looking directly at economics. Health wise we are like many rural towns/cities.....older and slightly poorer. That doesn't bode well with the disease. 

I think every citizen wants to move through the stages but I personally want to do it once (at least until the uncertainty of seasonal influenza begins) and not backslide. The trend isn't looking good for that preference.


----------



## Vanilla

I don’t see any chance of sliding backward on the state scale no matter what the numbers do before the primary election happens. Gov Herbert has his hand-picked successor to protect. Being the head of the COIVD-19 commission can be a double edged sword. When things are going well you can get all the praise, but when they are not, there is going to be some blame. Fair or not, doesn’t really matter. That’s just how it goes. 

I have been on the record happy what Utah has done and I think we’ve led out for the entire country on this one. I still feel that way for the most part. My beef is just that when they switched up from the three-part “urgent, rehabilitation, return to normal” plan to the “red, orange, yellow, green” scale it sent the wrong message to the public. 

Combine what we’re already seeing now with Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints congregations in areas all around the state beginning to return to limited in-person meetings, and I suspect our numbers are going to be more on this level than the 130-160 per day we have become accustomed to. And I think all of this is due to poorly handled messaging and people misconstruing what is really happening on the color phases That is one that state leaders are just going to have to own.


----------



## middlefork

It will certainly be interesting to see what the reaction will be if the state determines a return to red is warranted.

I don't think you cant put that genie back in the bottle.


----------



## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> It will certainly be interesting to see what the reaction will be if the state determines a return to red is warranted.
> 
> I don't think you cant put that genie back in the bottle.


I think you're talking about a NYC level crisis would be required for them to ever go back beyond orange again. I suspect we see orange again in the fall/winter. I don't think we'll see red again. Right or wrong, I won't comment on that. I just don't see it happening. Red for less than a month is requiring the state to cut $1 billion from its annual budget.


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> I think you're talking about a NYC level crisis would be required for them to ever go back beyond orange again. I suspect we see orange again in the fall/winter. I don't think we'll see red again. Right or wrong, I won't comment on that. I just don't see it happening. Red for less than a month is requiring the state to cut $1 billion from its annual budget.


The only reason to ever go back to red is if the hospitals get overwhelmed. The entire lockdown was for them to get supplied enough to stay ahead of any future hospitalizations. With too many companies to count now making medical supplies (on the governments dime of course under the war powers act), we have face masks coming our of our ears along with other PPE, ventilators, oxygen concentrators etc etc. Hopefully there is plenty of equipment being produced now to handle increased cases.

The lockdown was never to eradicate the virus, that is here to stay... forever probably. Hopefully a vaccine will become available for those who suffer from underlying conditions and Covid19 truly is life threatening.

All of these stats, arent trustworthy to begin with... they dont even test symptomatic people.

I personally think only 1 statistic matters: The percentage of available ICU beds. Atm, we appear to have that well under max capacity.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

I would sincerely hope the state would go back to red if hospitals were beyond capacity but I'm even skeptical to believe that would be enough. 

I stand corrected on my concern about leaving red as I don't think we saw data that shows the change was deleterious to public health. And the benefits were immense.

But we jumped the gun on the move to yellow. It wasn't supported by the data and I think it's a key part of this current trajectory. And much of what we are seeing is that people actually didn't have much choice in returning to work even if places weren't mitigating the risk to protect employees. Even outside the meat packing facility outbreak it was being mentioned by health directors. That's not just a byproduct of state messaging but a sad reality of environments workers are experiencing. 

I am grateful our protests were more restrained by both civilians and police. I think our spike will be comparably smaller to those places with huge crowds and more turmoil. Social distancing wasn't happening, plenty of photographs of a portion not wearing masks and then you add into what tear gas does to the body and it's a perfect storm for the pandemic. I can't imagine how it will spread amongst those arrested (plenty still coughing and overall primed virus wise by chemical irritants) and placed in holding cells for longer than normal (some places for days) because of strained systems. It's likely to get ugly in those places.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

New record high for friday, we're now up to 543 positives in a single day! Whoo hoo!


----------



## DallanC

Well... this whole lock down reasoning has been bull$hit folks. The medical experts said: Stay away from people to stop the spread? Stay in doors to slow the spread? All crap-o-la.

Remember the media backlash on those protesting the lockdown and loss of freedom? Its all crap.

1 MILLION people demonstrating today, all in close proximity ... and the medical experts are ok with it... yet somehow still against lockdown protests? What kind of world do we live in?










THIS is what they are ok with???? W T F...










The video of this event is even larger... showing a crowd many times this single image.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1269379750465806338
Absolutely ridiculous. It makes me furious...it throws away the sacrifice people have made who did social distance and stay home. All for what...

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

It's all, 100%, pure politics. Personally, I'm still going to be cautious, and that is my personal choice because my spouse is in a risk category. However, I do so, without a blind eye to the politics involved. The hypocrisy of the left, knows no bounds, and I've been saying that for years. So I am not surprised by the hypocrisy displayed with this, but I am surprised they have become so blatant about it. They aren't even trying to spin a plausible story anymore.

edit: 

It guess I'll mention, that Mrs Lone thinks all those people are going to Darwin themselves, and the sucky part is they're going to drag all those around them down with their stupidity. 

As an aside, without any hard data, It is reasonable to assume that Friday's spike here in Utah, is a result of protests.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> It's all, 100%, pure politics. Personally, I'm still going to be cautious, and that is my personal choice because my spouse is in a risk category. However, I do so, without a blind eye to the politics involved. The hypocrisy of the left, knows no bounds, and I've been saying that for years. So I am not surprised by the hypocrisy displayed with this, but I am surprised they have become so blatant about it. They aren't even trying to spin a plausible story anymore.


+100

-DallanC


----------



## Clarq

I haven't followed this thread for about a month. Is it still taboo to assert that the "cure" is worse than the disease? 

I'd much rather have coronavirus for a week than live through the hell that has been the past few months.


----------



## backcountry

Lone_Hunter said:


> It's all, 100%, pure politics. Personally, I'm still going to be cautious, and that is my personal choice because my spouse is in a risk category. However, I do so, without a blind eye to the politics involved. The hypocrisy of the left, knows no bounds, and I've been saying that for years. So I am not surprised by the hypocrisy displayed with this, but I am surprised they have become so blatant about it. They aren't even trying to spin a plausible story anymore.
> 
> edit:
> 
> It guess I'll mention, that Mrs Lone thinks all those people are going to Darwin themselves, and the sucky part is they're going to drag all those around them down with their stupidity.
> 
> As an aside, without any hard data, It is reasonable to assume that Friday's spike here in Utah, is a result of protests.


Highly unlikely that the spike is largely related to protests, yet. First, we know the bulk is currently related to the meat packing plant. Still growth after that but the math consistently applied the last 4-6 weeks would point to the real impact of protests showing up today onward. The record breaking caseload was representative of Friday and the bulk of SLC protests, started last Saturday. That's only 6 days apart when the lower limit of effect on testing tends to be around 7 days: 5 days to present symptoms (on average) plus 2 days for test results.

Not to mention statistical growth had been disproportionately outside SLC region. Today's numbers onward will show if SLC sees a protest related spike and I think we all believe it's likely.

And Lone ... this is the third (plus) time you've voluntarily inserted partisan attacks on the "left". I don't see many other people doing that. At least one moderator has said that's the very line to avoid in these threads.


----------



## brisket

Clarq said:


> I haven't followed this thread for about a month. Is it still taboo to assert that the "cure" is worse than the disease?
> 
> I'd much rather have coronavirus for a week than live through the hell that has been the past few months.


Well stated. It's been the most stressful few months I've ever lived through.

The cure IS worse than the disease, but I'm sure backcountry will be on here shaming me shortly for saying so. In that sense it might still be taboo. At least the UWN ignore option is still working so I don't have to read it.


----------



## brisket

DallanC said:


> Well... this whole lock down reasoning has been bull$hit folks. The medical experts said: Stay away from people to stop the spread? Stay in doors to slow the spread? All crap-o-la.
> 
> Remember the media backlash on those protesting the lockdown and loss of freedom? Its all crap.
> 
> 1 MILLION people demonstrating today, all in close proximity ... and the medical experts are ok with it... yet somehow still against lockdown protests? What kind of world do we live in?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> THIS is what they are ok with???? W T F...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The video of this event is even larger... showing a crowd many times this single image.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1269379750465806338
> Absolutely ridiculous. It makes me furious...it throws away the sacrifice people have made who did social distance and stay home. All for what...
> 
> -DallanC


Infuriating!


----------



## Lone_Hunter

brisket said:


> It's been the most stressful few months I've ever lived through.


It's been stressful for myself as well, but as stressful times go, I've endured far worse, for much longer. Just find your outlet, and unplug when you can. Personally, as long as I can get into the mountains every other weekend, or as often as my family obligations will allow, I could put up with this for awhile, but that's just me as I've never been a people person anyway.

After turkey season, I'm taking a little break this month. However, on the 20th, we're doing another family campout. Probably heading to central manti. After that, i'll be hitting the manti all through July, and into august. Archery season is just around the corner. Getting my gear in order, doing my daily archery practice in my basement now.

Hopefully, i get that late season cow tag I put in for. COVID or no COVID, there's a lot i'm looking forward to.


----------



## backcountry

I hope history notes that even with preventative measures 110,000+ citizens have died while people flippantly claimed "the cure is worse than the disease". I hope history notes it's actually impossible to know the "cure is worse than the disease" when we know so little about this novel virus; we are still living with the uncertainty of what medium to long term effects happen after exposure or even if we develop meaningful immunity. 

There was a way to discuss all of the unfortunate effects of health guidelines but a minority of fellow citizens chose what was always the lazy political red meat of "the cure is worse than the disease" instead. It's not a shock that it was a rallying cry of infotainment taking heads on cable news and AM radio who are masters of disinformation. And from the same ones that claimed the virus was a hoax, no worse than the common cold or flu or repeated our President's completely unscientific claims about it disappearing.

Misinformation works as the meme that is "cure worse than the disease" shows.


----------



## Jedidiah

brisket said:


> Well stated. It's been the most stressful few months I've ever lived through.
> 
> The cure IS worse than the disease, but I'm sure backcountry will be on here shaming me shortly for saying so. In that sense it might still be taboo. At least the UWN ignore option is still working so I don't have to read it.


We are being allowed the luxury of posing that question. First, it's not a week but 2 weeks+ in many cases, but also if we all just gave up the measures that are slowing the spread of the disease you could easily find yourself being denied some emergency services. Your daughter breaks her arm and you go to the emergency room and wait four or more hours if you even get in today, for example.

The other thing is the world that the at-risk individuals would have to live in if the whole world was closed to them. There's a 90 year old lady that lives on my block, alone. If we're all sick for 2 weeks and unable to approach her for 2-4 weeks how does she get supplies? What happens if she needs emergency care from EMTs who are contagious?

Say you have a 3 bedroom house with kids and a wife and one of them is immune system compromised. You have a person in your house who will almost certainly need hospital care if they get sick but 50% of the people you come in contact with are contagious.

It's reasonable to question it because we're living in what is probably the best case scenario that gives us no frame of reference.


----------



## Clarq

backcountry said:


> Misinformation works as the meme that is "cure worse than the disease" shows.


Misinformation? Is it not possible that someone could have all the same information you have, but arrive at a different conclusion than you? Especially when that conclusion is an opinion?


----------



## backcountry

Clarq said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Misinformation works as the meme that is "cure worse than the disease" shows.
> 
> 
> 
> Misinformation? Is it not possible that someone could have all the same information you have, but arrive at a different conclusion than you? Especially when that conclusion is an opinion?
Click to expand...

For me? Not when it's a phrase/slogan pushed by cable news and radio talking heads that was part of a longer chain of misinformation. Especially when those using it in such a way rarely, if ever, actually accounted for the complexities of the disease in scientifically accurate way.

If you want to draw conclusions publicly about the cost/benefit analysis of health directives without that type of pushback than I would stay away from such inherently hyperpartisan phrases. Like I said, it's very possible to have that conversation but people are choosing a cheap, rather empty slogan instead.

*A good example would actually be a discrete conversation about what "cure" given our nation lacked a central response in that fashion and states applied noticeably different strategies. Hence my choice to call it empty.


----------



## backcountry

In this case I think the phrase "cure is worse than the disease" likely warrants the disinformation label given its political sources and boosters. Its a clear descendant of the lineage of rhetoric I previously listed.


----------



## Clarq

backcountry said:


> For me? Not when it's a phrase/slogan pushed by cable news and radio talking heads that was part of a longer chain of misinformation. Especially when those using it in such a way rarely, if ever, actually account for the complexities of the disease in scientifically accurate way.
> 
> If you want to draw conclusions publicly about the cost/benefit analysis of health directives without that type of pushback than I would stay away from such inherently hyperpartisan phrases. Like I said, it's very possible to have that conversation but people are choosing a cheap, rather empty slogan instead.
> 
> *A good example would actually be a discrete conversation about what "cure" given our nation lacked a central response in that fashion and states applied noticeably different strategies. Hence my choice to call it empty.


Ok, so it's the phrase you don't like. Fair enough.

The "cure" is what it is - the policies people put in place and the actions people took. At this point, I think I'm more concerned with the effects of the "cure" - the impact on the economy, mental health, domestic violence, etc. I'm not inclined to list numbers and stats at this point. I think they're pretty well-known. They were inevitable tradeoffs, and I didn't have a problem getting behind many of them. Especially when we moved to orange and started opening things up.

The straw that broke my back was seeing so many of these so-called health "experts" practically encouraging these mass gatherings/protests/riots. I can only reach two possible conclusions:

1. Due to the recent mass gatherings, we'll experience a large uptick in cases, possibly overwhelming the medical system (if so, this would be consistent with what the "experts" have been telling us the past few months).

2. Experts aren't worried, and expect that new cases will be manageable.

If #1, our health "experts" are willing to harm the public health of a nation for the sake of a political agenda.

If #2, why did our health "experts" advocate for such heavy restrictions in the first place? Were they pushing a political agenda all along?

I dunno... I'll admit I haven't been doing great lately. Hard not to get demoralized in such a crazy world. I'd probably do well to go to bed and stay off the internet for a few days.

Get/stay well, everyone.


----------



## backcountry

Clarq said:


> Ok, so it's the phrase you don't like. Fair enough.
> 
> The "cure" is what it is - the policies people put in place and the actions people took. At this point, I think I'm more concerned with the effects of the "cure" - the impact on the economy, mental health, domestic violence, etc. I'm not inclined to list numbers and stats at this point. I think they're pretty well-known. They were inevitable tradeoffs, and I didn't have a problem getting behind many of them. Especially when we moved to orange and started opening things up.
> 
> The straw that broke my back was seeing so many of these so-called health "experts" practically encouraging these mass gatherings/protests/riots. I can only reach two possible conclusions:
> 
> 1. Due to the recent mass gatherings, we'll experience a large uptick in cases, possibly overwhelming the medical system (if so, this would be consistent with what the "experts" have been telling us the past few months).
> 
> 2. Experts aren't worried, and expect that new cases will be manageable.
> 
> If #1, our health "experts" are willing to harm the public health of a nation for the sake of a political agenda.
> 
> If #2, why did our health "experts" advocate for such heavy restrictions in the first place? Were they pushing a political agenda all along?
> 
> I dunno... I'll admit I haven't been doing great lately. Hard not to get demoralized in such a crazy world. I'd probably do well to go to bed and stay off the internet for a few days.
> 
> Get/stay well, everyone.


Totally fine with criticizing methods. Solely about the slogan/phrase and it's history.

I personally think many in the medical industry made a critical error in making public statements in support of recent protests. I understand the socioeconomics of healthcare and the "why" but believe the tradeoffs are immense. They lost a ton of social capital that we needed to motivate people to unite to fight this virus. Not to mention it plays right into the distrust of experts and skilled professionals in the middle of a pandemic in which we need them more than ever.

I don't question the seriousness of how experts took the virus. I know first hand how serious specialist are taking and many have lost or see colleagues infected with dramatic results (often doctors in their prime years not high risk). And we have definitely entered a new stage in knowledge and strategy. I have no doubt in my mind we'll see an uptick or at least a persistent trend at recent highs. Fingers crossed it's not to an overwhelming level.

Sorry to hear you are demoralized. Many of us are. Definitely a tough time. I hope you stay safe and find a way through this. This pandemic had found a way to effect most of the world's population in one way or another and all of the side effects you listed are definitely legitimate.


----------



## brisket

Clarq said:


> If #2, why did our health "experts" advocate for such heavy restrictions in the first place? Were they pushing a political agenda all along?


If #2, Fauci needs to be brought before a tribunal, charged with crimes against humanity.


----------



## brisket

Clarq said:


> I dunno... I'll admit I haven't been doing great lately. Hard not to get demoralized in such a crazy world. I'd probably do well to go to bed and stay off the internet for a few days.
> 
> Get/stay well, everyone.


I'm sorry you're not well, Clarq. It's been challenging like nothing we've seen before. Hang in there. Let's us know if we can help in any way.


----------



## Vanilla

He’s not giving false information, backcountry. He qualified it with an “if.” There is a difference, especially for someone so keen on nuance and minutia. 

***Edit- I see you deleted your comment. Probably wise. 

My problem with the “experts” encouraging the protests and actively saying they are fine with the lack of social distancing is this: Then why not me? Why do I have to do it, but you’re okay they don’t?

The “misinformation” is not only coming from one side on this. Anyone see the retraction on the hydrochloroquine studies that were being held up as infallible “science?” 

Don’t wear a mask. Wear one. Except the WHO, they say you don’t need to unless you’re sick. Quite the roller coaster trying to figure out what is right and what isn’t. Misinformation, you say?


----------



## backcountry

Yep, missed "if" so I deleted it (no response at that point). My mistake. (To be fair though, I didn't call his statement false.)

Whoever said science is infallible? Not any scientist I know or class I took. It's actually developed checks because of human fallibility. 

The retraction is actually a built in part of the self-correcting aspect of science. It's a sign the system is working. When someone tried to replicate the study and were denied access to the dataset they chose to do the ethical thing. That's not misinformation at all. But to be clear, we now have several other studies consistent with it's findings and we've known for years that the side effects aren't minute.

The mask situation is complex and the messaging sucked. But the pushback right now seems to be discounting the good enough in favor of perfection.


----------



## backcountry

One of my more laughable skills I've mastered is bungling metaphors and phrases. I'm even more talented at mixed metaphors.

I was searching for the phrase "Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good".


----------



## johnnycake

Clarq said:


> I dunno... I'll admit I haven't been doing great lately. Hard not to get demoralized in such a crazy world. I'd probably do well to go to bed and stay off the internet for a few days.
> 
> Get/stay well, everyone.


I gotta say, get out in the mountains and chase some fish or fungus for a day or ten. It does wonders.


----------



## backcountry

Are you in the middle of a Hello Tushy session on the 2nd photo?

Congrats on time well spent. Fun seeing shots and living vicariously through them. I really need to pick up mushroom hunting one day.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Are you in the middle of a Hello Tushy session on the 2nd photo?
> 
> Congrats on time well spent. Fun seeing shots and living vicariously through them. I really need to pick up mushroom hunting one day.


I'm always tushin'. 24/7/365. It's the secret to true happiness.


----------



## Jedidiah

https://www.ksl.com/article/46762173/coronavirus-updates-stay-up-to-date-on-covid-19-news-here

Ohhh man, look at that upswing in positive cases and primary contact. Probably going to have some good examples of what could happen with no restrictions at all, courtesy of the protesters.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

I bet the upswing is from memorial day weekend heard it takes about 2 weeks for the cases to show their ugly selves , so..... watch it go up again in a week because of protesting


----------



## Kwalk3

johnnycake said:


> I gotta say, get out in the mountains and chase some fish or fungus for a day or ten. It does wonders.


Looks we've taken a similar approach recently.








Truly does wonders.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## DallanC

Looks tasty. We just got done smoking a bunch of trout, and salmon this weekend from last falls Alaska trip. Stuff is like candy

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

WHO now reporting asymptomatic people very rarely spread the corona. 

Good to know...

(Insert my head shaking here) 

The roller coaster of info is not breeding confidence.


----------



## neverdrawn

I can't verify this as pure unadulterated truth but story tells it I had a distant cousin who injured his thumb over the weekend. He went to the ER for stitches and when looking over his discharge papers it said he was treated for Covid. When he questioned the powers that be they told him not to worry about it, the hospital received money for each covid patient they treated. If this is indeed the case, the numbers are obviously skewed. Now I'm not saying I believe this, or not, but the person telling the story generally isn't imaginative enough to make up such a tale.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> WHO now reporting asymptomatic people very rarely spread the corona.
> 
> Good to know...
> 
> (Insert my head shaking here)
> 
> The roller coaster of info is not breeding confidence.


The messaging sucks right now. It's always tough to get inter-organizational communication to align but we are seeing an absolute train wreck at the moment.

I will also say that many scientists aren't very good at communicating to the public. I really wish science writing and communication was more emphasized when transmitting info to the public. And there is no better time to present data and findings in a sincerely hedged manner than in the middle of a global pandemic with a novel virus.

Per asymptomatic.... we'll see if the criticism about her meaning pre-symptomatic is true or if this is a situation in which different studies and data sets are showing truly different outcomes. I say that as I believe other studies have shown asymptomatic carriers accounting for a respectable portion of transmission. Such as this from a few days ago:

https://time.com/5848949/covid-19-asymptomatic-spread/

Science is a wiley beast.


----------



## Vanilla

Which is exactly why I don’t want to hear anyone criticizing anyone else for not listening “to science.” 

How many times has the science changed in the last 3 months? I get why, and it’s understandable. But there has been a whole lot of criticism of people in America for not listening to science. 

Let me know when they figure it out and then I’ll listen.


----------



## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> WHO now reporting asymptomatic people very rarely spread the corona.
> 
> Good to know...
> 
> (Insert my head shaking here)
> 
> The roller coaster of info is not breeding confidence.


I saw that article, but couldn't find the study her comments were based on before having to get back to real work.


----------



## Vanilla

I just heard her quote on the radio. 

And where is the boogeyman telling us about the stock market collapse? Seems like that was a quick bounce back. Good on all you that played it right and cleaned house!


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> Which is exactly why I don't want to hear anyone criticizing anyone else for not listening "to science."
> 
> How many times has the science changed in the last 3 months? I get why, and it's understandable. But there has been a whole lot of criticism of people in America for not listening to science.
> 
> Let me know when they figure it out and then I'll listen.


So who do you want to listen to in the middle of a viral pandemic? Who are the valid experts to help us navigate this?

If we waited to listen to them until it was "figured out" we can take some pretty confident educated guesses that fatalities would be much higher at the moment. And this might not be "figured out" for months, or longer.

Fatigue is understandable. We all are. But sadly this goes a whole lot deeper than "not listening to science" though.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> So who do you want to listen to in the middle of a viral pandemic? Who are the valid experts to help us navigate this?
> 
> If we waited to listen to them until it was "figured out" we can take some pretty confident educated guesses that fatalities would be much higher at the moment. And this might not be "figured out" for months, or longer.
> 
> Fatigue is understandable. We all are. But sadly this goes a whole lot deeper than "not listening to science" though.


You and I argued a lot on this thread but that was really my main point - They continuously changed the science. Yes I know models and predictions change, but they were literally all over the place beginning with it doesn't spread from human to human(WHO), masks don't work(WHO and Fauci), it doesn't spread to animals THEN they said it spreads to humans (WHO and Fauci), wear masks (WHO and Fauci), it spreads to animals.

They have bounced around on surface to person transmissions too. Basically everything has changed except old people and pre-existing conditions (which most the population has at least one once they reach middle age)

These haven't been because of a virus that changes, they have been because of premature/conflicting findings and there definitely has been political sway throughout (ie them saying they don't see risk in these protests? WTH?).

You are right though... what/who do we listen to? Ultimately the biggest mitigation of risk is what many of us have said this whole thread: The individual. Take the precautions that you feel best.

All that said - I apologize for our back and forth. I respect the route you have gone during this and at times let my skepticism go at you. Especially the times I felt belittled for not having science, which I didn't because I felt there wasn't reliable science only contradictory science. But ultimately you did what you felt best protected you and your loved ones.

This whole thing has shown me that somehow health has become extremely partisan. There are GREAT frontline healthcare workers trying to solve these things. But much like in wildlife, those frontline volunteers often role up to a Don Peay and that just ruins everything.


----------



## backcountry

Good news is fatalities are way down nationally. I know it's a lagging indicator but the lull is a relief. Knowing fewer families are losing loved ones is a much needed break. 

Fingers crossed we don't see the scary highs we saw just weeks ago.


----------



## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> I just heard her quote on the radio.
> 
> And where is the boogeyman telling us about the stock market collapse? Seems like that was a quick bounce back. Good on all you that played it right and cleaned house!


I went heavy on airlines in March. It's been an excellent couple of weeks and today was phenomenal.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Fatigue is understandable. We all are. But sadly this goes a whole lot deeper than "not listening to science" though.


But that's the thing, people are getting berated in society for not listening to science. Heck, it's even happened to some extent in this very thread, and others related to this topic on this forum. I hate the word "virtue signaling" because it's just become a political buzzword, but it seems apropos for the topic at hand. People being talked down to like they are ignorant idiots because, well...science. And then it changes. And the same group of people start on the next crusade for science against those ignorant "other people" that don't follow basic science. Until it changes.

Fatigue? Yep, I guess you could call it that. But it's not with the science itself. It's the self-righteous folks peddling it that don't know what they're talking about that I'm tired of hearing from.

I realize how science works. I know there is no playbook for a novel coronavirus like this. There is going to be a whole lot of trial and error. I just wish everyone pushing to let science dictate actually knew how this works.

Sorry. I needed to get that off my chest. Fatigued, I am.


----------



## Vanilla

johnnycake said:


> I went heavy on airlines in March. It's been an excellent couple of weeks and today was phenomenal.


A day late and a dollar short. Story of my life...


----------



## CPAjeff

johnnycake said:


> I went heavy on airlines in March. It's been an excellent couple of weeks and today was phenomenal.


Same here - airlines. I also went heavy on energy and entertainment. The recent past has been absolutely incredible!


----------



## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> A day late and a dollar short. Story of my life...


I wish I could tell you my secret, and while I like to pretend my looking at trends for 1 week, 1 month, 3/10/20 years and eyeballing what I think it "should" be, at the end of the day I'm just a lucky guesser


----------



## johnnycake

CPAjeff said:


> Same here - airlines. I also went heavy on energy and entertainment. The recent past has been absolutely incredible!


Alaska Airlines is up ~37% since Friday, and over 70% from March. But I swear I think it still has a lot of room to gain, so it'll probably crater in the morning


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> But that's the thing, people are getting berated in society for not listening to science. Heck, it's even happened to some extent in this very thread, and others related to this topic on this forum. I hate the word "virtue signaling" because it's just become a political buzzword, but it seems apropos for the topic at hand. People being talked down to like they are ignorant idiots because, well...science. And then it changes. And the same group of people start on the next crusade for science against those ignorant "other people" that don't follow basic science. Until it changes.
> 
> Fatigue? Yep, I guess you could call it that. But it's not with the science itself. It's the self-righteous folks peddling it that don't know what they're talking about that I'm tired of hearing from.
> 
> I realize how science works. I know there is no playbook for a novel coronavirus like this. There is going to be a whole lot of trial and error. I just wish everyone pushing to let science dictate actually knew how this works.
> 
> Sorry. I needed to get that off my chest. Fatigued, I am.


The crappy part to me isn't the science but 1) its messaging to the public and 2) how it gets sloppy in political application.

The last one is lost in the process most of the time. Science can provide information and recommendations but ultimately applying anything like we are seeing now involves values outside of the science. But few power players do a good job at bifurcating that truth. Those values and the inherent politics make the whole thing sloppy. Sadly our politics and culture was a poor environment before this started (it was already openly antagonistic to expertise) and the pandemic has made this worse.

I really liked what you said early on about scientist being advisors to elected officials, including our governor. But that advice often carries little weight, proportionally, after the sausage making starts (luckily that stalled for a while in Utah to our benefit). I think we have both seen that play out in our lives.

I wish the "media" and agencies did a much better job at tempering expectations of their findings. Fauci did a great job at that in my opinion. Dr Dunn has been a tremendous asset for the state (my money is she released by 2021 as she has been targeted by local politicians). But sadly we've seen poor science writing in the media for decades. I think Vox media is the only platform I have seen transparently talking about better ways to interview, discuss and frame scientific ideas in moments like this. And that took making some pretty public mistakes, but I think its fair to say they were one of those that made errors in good faith while many outlets were almost all political spin (across the wide and deep spectrum of American politics).

I know I have leaned hard into criticizing ideas shared on this forum regarding Covid-19. I've been pretty honest about why and when. We have a ton of psuedoscience polluting some of the hardest decisions facing our country and its creating a rather nasty clogosphere. And that doesn't account for the conspiracies given pretty wide credence. I've seen firsthand what happens when psuedoscience goes unchallenged on forums and websites and its not simply written off as a matter of opinion that deserves safe harbor. The negative feedback loop has a severe impact on society and policy.

I am highly unlikely to change course there without some significant evidence to support otherwise and I say that as someone who has accepted the very noticeable side effects of such a strategy. I've said it before publicly but you don't actually change the mind of the person being criticized with facts. Much of my professional education and years of avocational studies are all about the human dynamics of science and its application. We've seen a lot of strategies attempted to get past the doubt sown by "merchants of doubt" but few have a clear cut benefit on the internet. So at moments like this I've chosen to stake a very specific place (because of a specific time) and accept the losses with the benefits. The losses are not subtle but neither are the implications of being passive.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> All that said - I apologize for our back and forth. I respect the route you have gone during this and at times let my skepticism go at you. Especially the times I felt belittled for not having science, which I didn't because I felt there wasn't reliable science only contradictory science. But ultimately you did what you felt best protected you and your loved ones.
> 
> This whole thing has shown me that somehow health has become extremely partisan. There are GREAT frontline healthcare workers trying to solve these things. But much like in wildlife, those frontline volunteers often role up to a Don Peay and that just ruins everything.


No harm, no foul, Randomelk. I never saw or took any malice in your posts, that I remember (my brain remains mooshy). If its not obvious, I have pretty thick skin despite what I've been trained to see as personal attacks. They rarely bother me.

I often passionately disagree with people on such subjects but never view people less for them. I hope that is clear as I sincerely view ideas, especially those debated on the internet, as something different than the person. I figure most people are doing their best, myself included, as we stumble through these experiences. I operate assuming the vast majority of people are admirable, stand up citizens and I've only been disproved of that by a few individuals (none of them on this forum).

I hope you remain safe, healthy and gainfully employed in the weeks and months ahead. We all need those to keep weathering this storm.

*First time in several months I've stayed up late planning a big, potential trip. Crap its late.


----------



## johnnycake

Don't forget your anal spritzing.


----------



## Vanilla

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...n-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

I know this is old news, but this is another example of the "experts" shooting their own foot. Well, the public health risks of being black outweigh that of Covid! Really? Have 100,000 black people died by systemic racism the last three months?

Anyone paying attention on this forum knows how I feel about America's flaws in this realm, and I am working for change in my sphere as much as I can, but this is a joke. "Protests are not high risk, unless you're protesting something we've said." That is the message from the "experts" on this one.

But it's science!!! No, I'm afraid it has all become about politics.

Maddening.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Unfortunately, COVID-19 was politicized almost as soon as it touched our shores.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...n-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html
> 
> I know this is old news, but this is another example of the "experts" shooting their own foot. Well, the public health risks of being black outweigh that of Covid! Really? Have 100,000 black people died by systemic racism the last three months?
> 
> Anyone paying attention on this forum knows how I feel about America's flaws in this realm, and I am working for change in my sphere as much as I can, but this is a joke. "Protests are not high risk, unless you're protesting something we've said." That is the message from the "experts" on this one.
> 
> But it's science!!! No, I'm afraid it has all become about politics.
> 
> Maddening.


To be fair, the "why" is legit for the socioeconomics of health. It's backed by a ton of research that overwhelming shows disparate outcomes not only in healthcare but across the board in medical outcomes. We can't pinpoint a 100k deaths to one cause like you say but the analysis is very discomforting in thid realm.

That said, I think the medical professionals who signed those open letters undoubtedly took a political risk that undermines COVID-19 efforts. At best it fuels the culture wars of media spin doctors and at worst it could legitimately create a massive surge in cases. And you know how I feel about increasing spread.

Like I said, science doesn't make decisions it just informs them. Values and politics are always at play.


----------



## backcountry

A little levity.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> That said, I think the medical professionals who signed those open letters undoubtedly took a political risk that undermines COVID-19 efforts.


That is the entire crux of my point. They have lost the moral high ground they previously could stand on and claim they only care about public health.

There are ways to support change and progress without being this blatantly hypocritical.

I don't want to hear anything about social distancing from this group ever again. And if they advocate for shutting down the economy again to "protect" people, they should be shot (only with rubber bullets) on site. They have made their bed, now they are going to have to lie in it.


----------



## backcountry

😲

Many have definitely played with fire in this case and sadly I believe we'll all get burned because of it. They won't have sole responsibility but all of the factors now are cumulatively building on each other in potentially deadly ways. 

Sadly I think we are seeing what happens when a nation is bombarded with so many challenges that citizens can't fully accommodate fast enough. On our best days we all take short cuts in thinking and problem solving. They become more prevalent at moments like this. And difficulty exploits the cracks in those processes.

I will say this is a good example how we all have identifies that become politically activated in unexpected ways. It's why "identity politics" has always been a rather weak retort. We all fall back on our groups, experiences and values in ways different than fellow citizens. They inform us and the world around us. Unfortunately there are times in history when those tendencies truly harm the well meaning people doing them, and ironically undermine the values/ideas they espouse. 

I think we can look across our nation and world right now and honestly say it's happening to people equally without regard to political ideology. I hope we are able to learn from that as it's clear we need to gather ourselves and move forward with purpose, resolution and foresight. 

I won't pretend to know what that balance is but clearly what we have been doing isn't working.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> A little levity.


That might just be my new favorite post.

And I called it last night. Airlines are down ~7% today, but good thing most of my sell orders hit yesterday right before this mornings slide...time to buy back in and get ready for more! This inspiration is brought to you by Hello Tushy! Before you trade, make sure you've sprayed.


----------



## RandomElk16

Who would have thought biting the bullet and buying Amazon stock would have paid THAT fast of a return. Up $700 per in less than a year. Maybe Bezos was involved with Bill... Haven't seen that one. (Microsoft had their second highest day yesterday, but that's not where Bill's focus is)


----------



## johnnycake

RandomElk16 said:


> Who would have thought biting the bullet and buying Amazon stock would have paid THAT fast of a return. Up $700 per in less than a year. Maybe Bezos was involved with Bill... Haven't seen that one. (Microsoft had their second highest day yesterday, but that's not where Bill's focus is)


My biggest regret was not adjusting my Tesla buy order for $335, and stubbornly waiting for it to drop just a bit further (it got down to just over $350 in March). Me being greedy over an extra potential 4% caused me to miss the ship that has zoomed up to the $950 range.


----------



## backcountry

Fingers crossed we have another day of cases below those high numbers last week. It's tough to admit I've adjusted to figures well above 200 per day but better than Memorial Day spikes and those workplace outbreaks seems to be our current target.

Hopefully national numbers stay "lower" like they've been as well. If we keep losing 1k Americans a day we are in for a tough reality yet it'll mean we may have weathered a nation playing around memorial day and then a nation in unrest the weeks that followed without a huge surge. Fingers crossed we get through these next few weeks without that spike and stress on our hospital structure.


----------



## backcountry

My guestimates have been wrong several times with this pandemic but I'm sad to say the bumpy road prediction of loosening was dead on. The move to yellow has resulted a return to the "acceleration phase" and both Dr. Dunn and General Burton are sounding the alarms that citizens aren't mitigating spread well enough. You never want to hear a state health specialist talk about "preventable deaths" in the way they currently are.

All the while my county commissioner is still pushing plandemic like ideas and hosted a concert with a business leader who prefers the bogus "herd immunity" approach that isn't working out so well for places like Sweden (even architect of plan has started vocalizing questions about the strategy given fatality rates). Fingers crossed the people distanced well enough and wore masks if in contact with people outside their home groups, but photos don't seem to give much credence to the approach.

Stay safe folks. We are far from flattening the curve in Utah and need people to up their game if we hope to avoid a worse case scenario come influenza season.

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/6...ah-329-new-cases-new-deaths-reported-covid-19


----------



## Clarq

A member of my household tested positive for COVID-19 today. Self-isolation is going to be a blast. O|*

Good news is, his symptoms are mild and all is looking very promising. Wondering what it will do to me...


----------



## CPAjeff

Clarq said:


> A member of my household tested positive for COVID-19 today. Self-isolation is going to be a blast. O|*
> 
> Good news is, his symptoms are mild and all is looking very promising. Wondering what it will do to me...


Yikes man - scary deal for your family and yourself! Best wishes for a speedy recovery for the one who tested positive and best wishes for the rest who could potentially have the virus.


----------



## DallanC

Clarq said:


> Good news is, his symptoms are mild and all is looking very promising. Wondering what it will do to me...


Probably not much. As more statistics are gathered, the less of a threat this virus is turning out to be for the general populace.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Fingers crossed for y'all. 

Are they asking for 14 days of self-quarantine?


----------



## Vanilla

Talked with a guy this last weekend whose son tested positive coming home from a foreign country. The CDC came in and tested everyone else in the household two different times during the quarantine period. None of the rest of the family tested positive. Said they almost didn’t believe it that nobody else tested positive. But that was their experience.


----------



## backcountry

That's a relief to hear even if it fits within statistics we've known for a while. 

Household spread has me worried now that my wife has returned to her worksite. At some point you can only control spread so much but one hopes you can stop it before it gets within your home. 

Best of wishes to everyone. We are definitely in the middle of the riskiest timeframe so far for Utah. I hope your households are spared from anything but mild outcomes.


----------



## bowgy

A friend of mine who's daughter got it was the first person I knew personally that has it. She is college age and was home from college for the summer. They don't know where she contacted it. 

Their 2 week quarantine was up this week. No one else in the family got it. I think that there are 6 family members in the home at this time.

His 17 year old son was tested twice previously because two of his friends came down with it but he didn't.

This is in the Cedar City area.


----------



## DallanC

Some interesting research is showing blood type matters as to your overall risk. Type O have the fewest issues, Type A the most.

The good news is most of the world is Type O.

-DallanC


----------



## Clarq

backcountry said:


> Fingers crossed for y'all.
> 
> Are they asking for 14 days of self-quarantine?


Yes, 14 days.


----------



## backcountry

Tough numbers statewide yesterday.

And after a delay it's starting to hit long term care facilities in S. Utah. Dixie Regional is currently using about 75% of it's ICU capacity.

https://www.cedarcityutah.com/news/...ologist-gives-stark-warning-to-southern-utah/


----------



## Vanilla

The numbers being reported are certainly not encouraging. So much for it going dormant when the weather warms! 

I’m less hopeful for a vaccine today than I think I’ve ever been. There seem to be some encouraging treatments coming to light. I really think people need to wrap their brains around not so much how we survive and beat this one, but how do we live with it. 

I don’t think it’s going away any time soon. I’d be more surprised if we had a resolution to this at this time next year than I would be if we had these same numbers or higher at this time next year. So, how do we figure out how to live with this? That’s a bleak reality of that is the case, I know. I just am not optimistic about beating this one any time soon.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> The numbers being reported are certainly not encouraging. So much for it going dormant when the weather warms!
> 
> I'm less hopeful for a vaccine today than I think I've ever been. There seem to be some encouraging treatments coming to light. I really think people need to wrap their brains around not so much how we survive and beat this one, but how do we live with it.
> 
> I don't think it's going away any time soon. I'd be more surprised if we had a resolution to this at this time next year than I would be if we had these same numbers or higher at this time next year. So, how do we figure out how to live with this? That's a bleak reality of that is the case, I know. I just am not optimistic about beating this one any time soon.


Yeah, finding an acceptable balance in protecting the health of individuals and also maintaining our economy is going to be a challenge and right now it's hard to find optimism. I think we had all hoped we'd get a summertime break but our seasonal behaviors and activities just seem to provide enough opportunity for acceleration in growth.

Hard to know with vaccines. Well outside my pervue but at this point I'm embracing my defensive pessimism and I'll enjoy being shocked if/when a vaccine happens before next summer.

This disease is a bugger. It's not "bad enough" to scare the bejeebus out of us for long but definitely bad enough that it will continue to ruin too many lives, looking like 200k+ by end of year, to be acceptable. And as is now obvious, without some sort of voluntary buy-in from the majority of citizens it will continue to find a way to the most vulnerable.

I have an email from a regional Assisted Living Facility I'm still trying to figure out how to respond to. Like millions of Americans it would normally be a viable, much needed option but I don't see how we can utilize their resources knowing come the autumn we might not see our loved one for 6+ months as they are very likely to be in lockdown come influenza season. We as a nation haven't remotely created a healthy outcome for that niche part of society; many of which have plenty of quality life ahead of them (much more than my Mother In Law). And that's just one of the subset of communities this disease is rippling through in profound ways. I don't envy parents looking at finding care for kids this autumn or when students are home from Thanksgiving to mid-January; I don't envy wage earners stuck working in close contact in critical industries like meat/grocery, offices warehouses, etc; I don't envy healthcare workers looking at a year of severe pressure and dealing with patients dying at such higher rates as many are speaking of the trauma inflicted just the last 4 months.


----------



## Catherder

Yeah, it has been a discouraging week statistically. I don't see any changes in the overall situation and how our work conducts business anytime soon. Ugh.

One note on vaccinations. I remain optimistic we will see a successful vaccine by the end of the year. However, it may not be the game changer for non healthcare workers that many are hoping for. With priority systems of using the limited vaccine supply for health professionals first and then likely, the highest risk individuals, it will be a while before Joe six-pack can get vaccinated.

Here is a good podcast on the subject if one has the time. (23 min)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-will-be-first-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/


----------



## backcountry

Will listen later today. 

State and national numbers were frightening yesterday. 33k infections is going to challenge a few regional healthcare systems in a week or so. Sounds like it's already happening in several places in FL and AZ.


----------



## Vanilla

https://www.fox13now.com/news/coron...down-from-covid-19-state-epidemiologist-warns

Well, that's good news. Ahem...


----------



## Bax*

Vanilla said:


> https://www.fox13now.com/news/coron...down-from-covid-19-state-epidemiologist-warns
> 
> Well, that's good news. Ahem...


Wall Street (albeit they are always this way) is gun shy about this news and similar stories from around the country.

Listening to friends and neighbors, the mentality seems to be that they dont care and just want to get infected and be done. Others are arrogant and act like they are immune.

Unreal


----------



## Clarq

Update for anyone who is curious:

Our original household case has recovered from all symptoms. It never got bad. He reported he would rather experience COVID at that level than a bad cold. I was tested at the request of my employer, and it came back negative. The two others in our household haven't developed symptoms and have not been tested.

It sucks to be quarantining when we all feel fine, but we're grateful to be feeling fine instead of terribly sick.

Thanks to those who have offered help.


----------



## middlefork

Bax* said:


> .
> Listening to friends and neighbors, the mentality seems to be that they dont care and just want to get infected and be done. Others are arrogant and act like they are immune.
> 
> Unreal


Caution Exhaustion

IF having antibodies give immunity then perhaps contracting is preferable for those that feel they are low risk. Life goes on for those that survive.

For those of us that have less risk tolerance all we can do is try to make good decisions.

A second shutdown IMHO will not be as successful as the first if it happens. People are not going to tolerate that a second time.


----------



## Bax*

middlefork said:


> Caution Exhaustion
> 
> A second shutdown IMHO will not be as successful as the first if it happens. People are not going to tolerate that a second time.


"Caution exhaustion" is a good term to use for the behaviors I've observed.

I agree that a 2nd shutdown would be disastrous. I just think people need to be smarter with their behavior as they are inviting another shutdown.

I believe that contracting the virus is a matter of "when" not "if" but I also believe we as a society can behave more responsibly and less selfishly.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Personally, I don't think anyone takes it seriously anymore, and it's also hard to maintain distance from people. Kid next door coming up and pestering us as we're unloading from a camping trip. Or the fish and game officer who wasn't wearing a mask and checking everyone's licenses, including my wifes. 

Coming in contact with people, is a lot like unprotected sex. You expose yourself to that individual, and EVERYONE else they have been in contact with. It's like playing russian roulette, your eventually going to find that live round.

The thing I really dislike the most about people in general, is that everyone think's they're special. Whatever "it" is, "it" always happens to, or applies to someone else, never to themselves. 

I tell my wife all the time, "Everyone's special dontcha know..."


----------



## Vanilla

I think there is space for all types of opinions on this one, but folks in Utah better start paying attention to what is going on here. It comes down to this: you can chose to act, or you can chose to be acted upon. 

I’m not advocating for this shut down. Another complete shut down and there will be a lot of us in a while heap of trouble. We need people to just be a bit more responsible in their decision making. 

As I said a bit ago: We’ve got to find a way to successfully live with this virus, it isn’t going anywhere any time soon. So what does the world ahead of us look like? We largely get to choose.


----------



## backcountry

Caution exhaustion is a good phrase for the first half of this year. I think all of us are worn out in some fashion as this disease has affected most of us in one way or another. 

I sure hope Utahns voluntarily up their game because I don't think a move to Orange will go over well. Watching local social media accounts definitely shows me Iron Co has a subset of people who don't even take well to voluntary guidelines. And the amount of misinformation spinning in our little eddy of a town is staggering.

Sadly the virus doesn't "care". It just needs enough hosts to keep reproducing and spreading. And all that takes is people not going along with basic guidelines of yellow. 

*I wish they reported how many travelers were diagnosed in Utah and each county. I understand why they are reported in their home state but I think it would help a tourist town like we are to see how many non-residents are being diagnosed. Seems like there should be a way to account for that information outside county and stare totals.


----------



## DallanC

Initial reports of estimated fall/early winter mortgage foreclosures absolutely dwarf numbers from the 2008 financial crisis. The economy is about to enter a freefall that will make us wish it was only as bad as the great depression. 

Its stunningly scary... and noone really seems to be following, and certainly talking about it.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

DallanC said:


> Its stunningly scary... and noone really seems to be following, and certainly talking about it.
> 
> -DallanC


While I haven't seen the projections of us hoping we were in as good of shape as the Great Depression, I don't think it's accurate to say nobody is talking about it. This has been discussed widely and specifically in this very thread. Even my post just above references the dangers of what is to come economically if we can't figure out a way to successfully live with this virus.

Not to get all political, but I'm going to. You have a bumbling buffoon in D.C. talking about how great everything is going and how the real answer to our issue about increased cases and hospitals starting to fill up is to just test less people. You have our governor here in Utah who is playing similar politics right now acting like all is well trying to get his hand-picked successor a primary election victory this week. (Anyone going to be shocked if the governor's tone shifts drastically after July 1st when all the primary ballots are cast?) The governor has to balance a whole bunch of factors in making decisions. Public health is not the only factor, just like the economy is not the only factor. But helping your boy win an election is not one of the factors to consider, and I'm afraid that is all that has mattered for the last 6-8 weeks.

We could end up in real trouble if leaders don't start leading instead of playing politics. I don't think shutting down the economy is the right call again. But what happens if enough of our own keep talking about how they won't "be sheep" or refuse to believe "what the media tells them?" Like I said, we can choose to act, or we can choose to be acted upon. Something is going to happen on this either way.

I loved Utah's plan in the beginning. I think Utah were absolute leaders on this for the first couple months. I think we have fallen into the political shambles of the rest of our society on this topic as well, which means we are all screwed.

And while I'm touching controversial topics, let's stop pretending that the nationwide protests are not having an impact on this either. I don't care if people want to protest, that is their right. I'm on the record on this forum saying so, and I stick to that. But health professionals, government leaders, and the media that are ignoring this fact or simply glossing over it and moving on to other aspects are being disingenuous at best, and straight up hypocrites at worst. Protest if you want. Let's shout for meaningful change, but let's also call a spade a spade here.

Okay, that felt good to get off my chest. I'm out.


----------



## backcountry

The case spikes last week likely had some protest influence given they would have represented the tail end of that timeframe. We'll never know how much but it undoubtedly influenced transmission in some fashion. 

Agreed, Vanilla, that people have been talking about the economic impact of the pandemic. I've seen it in this thread since March. The health issue and economic reality are intertwined. Government policy definitely had an impact but we are seeing the reality of what happens when large swaths of our society voluntarily opt out of historic behavior. Travel and leisure are not as recession proof as was imagined pre-pandemic. I think we'll recover some with fewer government interventions but the voluntary choices of households and businesses are going to keep us historically bad recession levels. 

I had tried to stay away from the theories about state behavior but it's hard to not see validity to Vanilla's assessment. It's saddening to think politics could trump real governance at a moment like this but I would be lying if I said I was shocked. I'm still waiting for the ultimate political move in the next year when they try a Friday Night Massacre of professionals like Dr Dunn to appease regional resentments. I'm guessing they will scapegoat people once we are safely approaching containment of Covid-19.

I said it very early on that the only way the Utah model worked is if citizens chose to act with more restraint than government expected. We are weeks into Yellow and evidence isn't aligning with that goal. It's been very bumpy as I predicted. It's not too late but I think many of us are wise to prepare for a crossroads in the coming weeks that is unpleasant in either government policy and/or civilian pushback. 

To what One insinuated, Iron Co was always lagging on preventative behavior but increasingly people seem to be acting like it's all over. Friends wearing masks are publicly ridiculed as sheeple more often. Fewer places seem to be doing curbside anymore. I am learning to be more defensive in planning as people are walking right up to me without masks even in my local community. We have close friends that are in a similar boat as us but they are few and far between. Even loved ones are getting into cars with individuals they aren't "quaran-teaming" with for hours long drives to hikes, etc. 

I'm personally excited for our upcoming trip but its likely to be our only travel (non-medical) outside 1-2 hours from our house until summer 2021, given the direction of the curve. I'm guessing most non-emergency medical appointments will remain tele-health for the next year. And have been steadily stocking up for a very long winter. I'm trying to find hope outside our house but these last few weeks have been discouraging. 

Continued luck to all. I hope your jobs and households remain safe. And if you are unlucky enough to get the virus I hope it's as mild as can be.


----------



## backcountry

Fauci was optimistic today that we'd see a vaccine by end of year or beginning of 2021. That would be great. I assume they are seeing promise in the current trials.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> Not to get all political, but I'm going to.


I wish you wouldn't. Personally, I'm tired of politics, but skimming down, I feel obligated to say something.



> You have a bumbling buffoon in D.C.


You know, it could have been much worse.



> You have our governor here in Utah who is playing similar politics right now


I learned something the hard way when I was younger. The Good ole boy system is just a fact of life, and knows no political boundaries. It doesn't matter who's in charge, or if it's the civilian world or the military world, the good ole boy system will be there.



> And while I'm touching controversial topics, let's stop pretending that the nationwide protests are not having an impact on this either.


The hypocrisy is both astounding, and yet not entirely unexpected. On a national level,

"LOCKDOWN LOCKOWN! Stay home! COVID pandemic, social distancing! , shut down the business! Do as we say or we will shut you down and put you in jail! Oh, you want to gather in large crowds to protest social justice? Ok.. that's fine." :roll:

The timing of these riots has me wanting to don a tin foil conspiracy hat. Seriously, the timing and what is being allowed in the face of a global pandemic is uncanny.


----------



## RandomElk16

Lone_Hunter said:


> I learned something the hard way when I was younger. The Good ole boy system is just a fact of life, and knows no political boundaries. It doesn't matter who's in charge, or if it's the civilian world or the military world, the good ole boy system will be there.


Yep. Doesn't matter if it was Biden Trump or Hillary.. and doesn't matter who our governor was (take a look at D and R states).

People are really excited to vote for the "lesser of two evils", although that difference seems negligible anymore.


----------



## RandomElk16

In covid news- Pretty sure I am working from home forever. Work extended it again (which I agree with) but it's not looking like a lot of people will go back this year. Teetering on how bad of a recession we hit and I am hopeful we avoid 09 type numbers. 


Pretty crazy that over $2 Trillion did basically nothing - outside of encouraging low-medium wage workers to hang out on unemployment. Imagine what the US could do for the people if they knew how to budget and spend properly.


----------



## backcountry

Ugh, nasty day nationally. 36k positives. I'm cringing to think about the surge we'll see in hospitalizations and then fatalities given the delay. Fingers crossed most are mild or respond to treatment. But Arizona and Texas aren't good indicators for the new peak we could experience. 

Still grateful to be in rural Utah even with our recent increase.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

RandomElk16 said:


> In covid news- Pretty sure I am working from home forever. Work extended it again (which I agree with) but it's not looking like a lot of people will go back this year. Teetering on how bad of a recession we hit and I am hopeful we avoid 09 type numbers.
> 
> Pretty crazy that over $2 Trillion did basically nothing - outside of encouraging low-medium wage workers to hang out on unemployment. Imagine what the US could do for the people if they knew how to budget and spend properly.


You reminded me about school. I wonder how school is going to work out this year.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

heard they're sitting on 14 billion allotted for more testing and they say to do less.:shock:


----------



## backcountry

Could you imagine how work environments could benefit from access to that much funding for testing? 

Instead of waiting for symptoms businesses could random sample employees and possibly be days ahead of asymptomatic spread that shuts down facilities. That alone would help the economy and job security during this turbulent time. 

We are driving through Yellowstone on Monday and I was impressed that they are testing every employee once a week. All but an off-site contractor have come back negative three weeks in a row now. It doesn't take much imagination to realize the level of confidence that provides management and front line employees to not just maintain operations but actually try to ramp it up in a safe way.

As Vanilla said we really need leadership to get that point though if we want to learn to live with this disease in a manner that balances health and economic needs.


----------



## backcountry

5500 new cases alone in Florida. That state reliably makes anywhere else look appealing. Sounds like major shift downward in median age of infected being driven by 20-30 year olds. 

Our nation needs to buckle up. It's going to be a heartbreaking couple weeks.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Could you imagine how work environments could benefit from access to that much funding for testing?
> 
> Instead of waiting for symptoms businesses could random sample employees and possibly be days ahead of asymptomatic spread that shuts down facilities. That alone would help the economy and job security during this turbulent time.
> 
> We are driving through Yellowstone on Monday and I was impressed that they are testing every employee once a week. All but an off-site contractor have come back negative three weeks in a row now. It doesn't take much imagination to realize the level of confidence that provides management and front line employees to not just maintain operations but actually try to ramp it up in a safe way.
> 
> As Vanilla said we really need leadership to get that point though if we want to learn to live with this disease in a manner that balances health and economic needs.


People are worried about the NBA restart... They just held 7 rounds of Supercross at Rice Eccles. How? Temp checks every day and frequent testing. Same with UFC.

I don't think sports restarting poses a risk if processes like this are followed - and to your point I think the economy could do a lot better with similar processes. Those billions could probably do the trick.

Until science stops with partisan crap it will be tough to have that leadership. Then again people like Dr Dunn aren't political so our governor just ignores her.


----------



## RandomElk16

Lone_Hunter said:


> You reminded me about school. I wonder how school is going to work out this year.


I don't think they go back in the fall - let alone have the fall sports all the kids are getting amped up for (HS football practice is open now).


----------



## Gordon

> I don't think they go back in the fall - let alone have the fall sports all the kids are getting amped up for (HS football practice is open now).


Yeah my kid is half way through his 14 day quarantine thanks to a hs football team mate. 
(I don't think anyone has realized this kid who tested positive was at a 7 on 7 event at Wasatch High School 3 days before he tested positive. I'd guess over 500 kids were there that day from the Cache Valley to Juab:shock::shock


----------



## backcountry

The school situation is tough. It's an obvious area for spreading without stringent measures in place which are difficult to enforce in such crowded, high interaction environments. But canceling on-site classes is a huge problem because of childcare demands. Last I heard childcare facilities across the country were struggling to meet the demand safely. Without that aid many dual income households will be in a double bind and the implications for the economy are severe. 

Close contact sports with a ton of players is another school struggle. Best case scenario is most teams mitigate it successfully but a handful have to quarantine at critical times. How do you maintain integrity of the competition as multiple teams are unable to compete for weeks at a time?


----------



## backcountry

To clarify one thing...the science isn't partisan even if some of the scientist and medical professionals are. The medical experts that publicly supported protests shot themselves in the foot COVID-19 wise and unfortunately affected public perception of disease mitigation at a key moment. 

The impact might be the same but ultimately the science is neutral. I hope more people can recognize that as we need the data, analysis and peer-reviewed research to move forward. We are screwed if we fail to recognize the hard work of thousands of people working on the vaccine, treatment and general epidemiology of this disease is what really matters. I hope the actions of a few doctors (in the big scheme of things) or a few high profile experts aren't used to sink the work being done. We need these people, especially the Dunn's and Fauci's of the world, to help guide decision making. Obviously their focus isn't the only one but their expertise is more important than ever.


----------



## CPAjeff

backcountry said:


> To clarify one thing...the science isn't partisan even if some of the scientist and medical professionals are. The medical experts that publicly supported protests shot themselves in the foot COVID-19 wise and unfortunately affected public perception of disease mitigation at a key moment.
> 
> The impact might be the same but ultimately the science is neutral. I hope more people can recognize that as we need the data, analysis and peer-reviewed research to move forward. We are screwed if we fail to recognize the hard work of thousands of people working on the vaccine, treatment and general epidemiology of this disease is what really matters. I hope the actions of a few doctors (in the big scheme of things) or a few high profile experts aren't used to sink the work being done. We need these people, especially the Dunn's and Fauci's of the world, to help guide decision making. Obviously their focus isn't the only one but their expertise is more important than ever.


I have to admit, backcountry, this is one of the best posts of this thread. I wish more people would stick to the facts instead of feelings. Hopefully the Dunn's and Fauci's of the science/medical world get the proper respect they have earned and are continuing to earn during this pandemic.


----------



## Catherder

CPAjeff said:


> Hopefully the Dunn's and Fauci's of the science/medical world get the proper respect they have earned and are continuing to earn during this pandemic.


In spite of some loud complaining about the public health professionals from some partisans, overall evidence suggests that most people do trust the scientists at a high rate. (much higher than the partisan politicians)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-americans-havent-stopped-trusting-scientists/


----------



## PBH

now if only fisheries biologists could get the same respect...



(sorry. i couldn't help it)


----------



## CPAjeff

PBH said:


> now if only fisheries biologists could get the same respect...
> 
> (sorry. i couldn't help it)


Oh, I agree completely . . . If only *all *wildlife biologists could get _some_ respect.

Big Game Biologist: "I think we should reduce the buck deer tags on x unit by y percentage to help the population."

Unnamed Board Member(s): "Nah. My buddy Ricky Bobby said the herds have never looked stronger. We should increase buck deer tags on x unit by y percentage. Will someone second the motion?"

Other Unnamed Board Member(s): "I'll second that motion."

(Sorry. I couldn't help it either!)


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> To clarify one thing...the science isn't partisan even if some of the scientist and medical professionals are. The medical experts that publicly supported protests shot themselves in the foot COVID-19 wise and unfortunately affected public perception of disease mitigation at a key moment.
> 
> The impact might be the same but ultimately the science is neutral. I hope more people can recognize that as we need the data, analysis and peer-reviewed research to move forward. We are screwed if we fail to recognize the hard work of thousands of people working on the vaccine, treatment and general epidemiology of this disease is what really matters. I hope the actions of a few doctors (in the big scheme of things) or a few high profile experts aren't used to sink the work being done. We need these people, especially the Dunn's and Fauci's of the world, to help guide decision making. Obviously their focus isn't the only one but their expertise is more important than ever.


I should have said "science" with quotations to be sarcastic or scientists.

Yes- it is the SCIENTISTS that are partisan and they misrepresent the science.

I put Red around Fauci because he has flip flopped on a few things and seems to be partisan at times.

Dunn has sounded like nothing but a scientist that I have heard. I respect her!


----------



## DallanC

They say: *THIS IS SERIOUS! WEAR MASKS! PREVENT VIRUS SPREAD! * Unless you aren't white, then hey don't worry about it.

You just cant make this stuff up... copied from New York Post.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/23/oregon-county-issues-face-mask-order-exempting-non-white-people/









-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Nothing like a DallanC whatahoutism.

The directive is politically unusual, that is for sure. I understand the spirit of the exemption but it seems like a poor policy to implement. We've definitely seen anecdotes of people of color harassed for wearing masks in stores to make it a sincere concern but I think they've opened up the door to many justified criticisms. 

I think masks should be highly encouraged and support campaigns like Utah has implemented. Mandatory? Tough needle to thread and we are seeing evidence that areas aren't doing it well. I just don't see mandatory masks being taken well across the country and I fear it will fuel the culture wars and backfire against the goal. 

Give them out for free. Destigmatize their use. And educate businesses to encourage use because of how they help protect employees and customers which protects the bottom line. Drive it from the bottom up, not the top down.

But to be honest, I fear it's stuff like this that is just adding cardboard and grease to the dumpster fire that is 2020. Our country desperately needs a unifying, learned and compassionate voice to lead us out of this mess but I don't see that happening at the moment.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> But to be honest, I fear it's stuff like this that is just adding cardboard and grease to the dumpster fire that is 2020. Our country desperately needs a unifying, learned and compassionate voice to lead us out of this mess but I don't see that happening at the moment.


Pfft. No need to worry. Once we quit testing, our statistics will improve and all our problems will go away.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> But to be honest, I fear it's stuff like this that is just adding cardboard and grease to the dumpster fire that is 2020. Our country desperately needs a unifying, learned and compassionate voice to lead us out of this mess but I don't see that happening at the moment.
> 
> 
> 
> Pfft. No need to worry. Once we quit testing, our statistics will improve and all our problems will go away.
Click to expand...

Is there are word for funny but devastatingly sad and scary at the same time? I'm just waiting for him to recommend putting Brawndo on our fields, because it's got what plants crave.


----------



## PBH

backcountry said:


> Is there are word for funny but devastatingly sad and scary at the same time?


Grotesque.

Twisted.

Tragicomic.


----------



## backcountry

Well, I can honestly say I didn't expect an answer for that. 🤣

Knew the definitions for twisted and tragicomic but didn't think grotesque had an element of comedy to it. Learn something new everyday. Thx for edubicating me, PBH.


----------



## backcountry

Anybody use a Kinda Smart Thermometer? Had never heard of them before but sounds like it could be a potential tool in the tool box for helping see broad trends in symptoms before people make it to the hospital.

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/06/25/covid-19-kinsa-smart-thermometer


----------



## Catherder

It would have to be in Piute County. :roll:

https://kutv.com/news/local/piute-c...-to-hitler-after-mask-order-in-other-counties


----------



## TPrawitt91

Catherder said:


> It would have to be in Piute County. :roll:
> 
> https://kutv.com/news/local/piute-c...-to-hitler-after-mask-order-in-other-counties


What a goof!


----------



## Dunkem

Just got home from bendover, they are being very strick on facemasks, if you have a drink or a smoke you have to pull the mask down for a drink or a puff then put right back in place.


----------



## backcountry

Just traveled through four states in a week and it's interesting to observe different behaviors. The only unifying factor I could see was reliance on tourism equaled much greater observance of social distancing and mask wearing. 

In Teton NP we got laughed at for wearing masks at one location while most wore them at another. That was while pushing an obviously high risk individual in a wheelchair. Women wearing masks compared to men was easily still 2 to 1; tourists from Asia and Europe seem to be more consistent.

The National Park Service is clearly slacking off as none of the 8 grizzlies we saw were wearing masks or socially distancing, including a group of 4 in front of our RV. 

It's extremely hard to travel and not enter businesses but it's possible to keep it to a minimum. I feel for tourist towns but it could be another year before they see households like ours returning to traditional use.


----------



## Ray

I was just in Catalina for a week last week, took my dads new 51’ Maritimo, fished and hangout. people don’t give a sh!t out there, especially in Huntington. 

Caught a sh!it load of whitefish, kelp bass and sheepshead. Yellowfin are running hard, didn’t target them though, just fished from the mooring really. 

Sorry, turned this into a fishing report 😂


----------



## backcountry

Catheder,

Have you seen this twitter thread floating around?

https://twitters.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880

Its making the circuit on my liberal friends' pages and something seems off about it to me. I'll be honest that I never dove into the theory of statistics enough to deal with all of it paradoxes but the author's claims don't seem to match the reality to me. Do you have thoughts?

At a minimum it seems to me people keep wanting to change the narrative and framework to suit their worldview. I don't see the paradox nor the flaw in looking at national trends, ie what he calls "erroneous". I think we can look at national trends to understand federal and interstate efforts as well as state and county level data to understand the more granular picture. Right now it seems like my more liberal friends don't want to see the possibility that the infection rate and mortality rate are diverging nationally even if there are states with outbreaks where that isn't happening.

But maybe I am missing something. I just struggle with my liberal friends on this one as it seems we are now discarding the national framework when it doesn't support their perspective. I'm not overly optimistic that the trend will last but at a minimum it seems the lag between infection rates and fatalities is increasing which seems like a positive outcome, even if temporary. I don't draw much meaning other than the lag but it would be awesome if our summer spike doesn't equate to a monstrous death toll like the author seems to be predicting (not consistent with the models I see).

What am I missing?


----------



## Catherder

Sorry, my work computer security isn't letting me look at the link. Could you paraphrase it for me? 

I tend to avoid social media as much as possible, but my wifes inbox is filled daily with all manner of crazy stuff. Since her family is from the "435", it is mostly far out stuff from the right, but I know liberals are not immune to believing and promulgating conspiracy theories and fringe ideas too.


----------



## backcountry

A gentleman named Miles Beckett is claiming its a "false conclusion" to claim that deaths are decreasing while cases are increasing because of a statistical issue called "Simpson's Paradox" (I'm not going to try to summarize that one as I'll botch it). Basically he's claiming we are improperly pooling data and end up with "erroneous" results.

He "supports" his claim loosely by highlighting data from AZ and TX but it appears more likely to support a situation of an "average hiding heterogeneity". He goes onto to claim we'll see hundreds of thousands of deaths in the next 8 weeks as we experience "dozens of NYCs".

It doesn't seem like a conspiracy theory so much as a misapplication of the paradox. But its gone viral fast which always raises red flags for me, as I tend to look at social media posts with similar skepticism. Not to mention his predictions for now until Oct (he later amended his forecast to three months) are off the charts for even generally pessimistic models like IHME.

You might be able to bypass the wall on Twitter by using the threader app link. Its an interesting situation to consider even if its just a form of confirmation bias on his part. I very well could be wrong in my skepticism and criticism since this level of statistical theory is new to me:

https://threader.app/thread/1278750652160634880

PS....I think his #5 is accurate and better explained by an "average hiding heterogenity", as stated above. I just don't think looking at national data is erroneous or problematic as he claims.


----------



## Catherder

Ok, the second link worked, although I was only able to infer what was on most of his "list of nine".

I just worked a 12 hour day and my mind is kind of mushy right now, but I have read this line of thought recently and believe the overall argument has merit.

Here is another article on the subject I just read tonight, trying to wind down.

Well, it won't let me put in this link. But go on *Vox* and read the coronavirus article posted today. 

Basically, the gist of a lot of this is that, as has been discussed here before, hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators and the areas where the exponential growth is occurring hasn't been into their growth phase long enough to start seeing the deaths in high numbers and the areas where previous high deaths were happening are better now, artificially depressing the numbers. If the theory holds, things will start climbing in a week or two. It does appear that hospitalizations have increased in the hotspots like Texas and Arizona in such a way that his hypothesis is not yet disproven. Time will tell.

One interesting thing about Utah's stats is that our numbers went to crap a bit over 2 weeks ago, but out hospitalizations have been surprisingly stable. (knock on wood)

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/


----------



## backcountry

Oh yeah, I have no doubt AZ and TX are about to see fatalities grow. I think the best case scenario is the lag time between infection and fatality has grown a bit (less pressure on hospitals in these new outbreaks, some treatment, average age infected, etc). But even the best case still means that many infections will eventually affect high risk populations, just a matter of time given how porous such communities are with our behavior. I give it at most 2 weeks before average age of infection starts to creep back up.

It will be interesting to see if we ever experience another NYC like outbreak, fatality wise. I hope we've learned some lessons, like don't send infected older citizens back to their long term care facilities mid-infection. If we can supress spread in those facilities we could reduce fatalities by 25% or greater. That's not a shabby goal. 

Still don't see how it's a Simpson's Paradox but I get the spirit of most of his posts, ie we shouldn't be complacent with current national trends given what's happening in discrete locals. I think recognizing how this is a disease affecting hundreds, if not thousands, of communities unevenly across the US is a prudent framework for moving forward.

Per Utah... can't say i Iove our infection trends but something less severe is happening here. Not sure exactly what but I'll find a little hope in the stats you talk about while they last and rejoice next spring if they are sustained.


----------



## backcountry

Just finished Vox article. I knew it was bad in AZ and TX but had no clue they were diverting patients in such drastic ways already. Frightening.

All a little too close to home as my sister and BIL are about to fly to AZ for a job interview and have my high risk parents babysit. 

Wild, difficult times.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> At a minimum it seems to me people keep wanting to change the narrative and framework to suit their worldview.
> 
> ...discarding the national framework when it doesn't support their perspective.


These two sentences are WAY too true with WAY too many things now days.

Happens from your neighbor, all the way up to congress and the president.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> At a minimum it seems to me people keep wanting to change the narrative and framework to suit their worldview.
> 
> ...discarding the national framework when it doesn't support their perspective.
> 
> 
> 
> These two sentences are WAY too true with WAY too many things now days.
> 
> Happens from your neighbor, all the way up to congress and the president.
Click to expand...

Few of us are immune but the stakes are so high right now.

I'm seeing it play out on so many levels at the moment. And it's fueling a culture war that I don't see an end to.

I'm probably losing some cred with friends as I pointed out that we had no problem allowing NYC numbers to drive the national trend and dialogue even though it didn't accurately represent what was actually happening in most locals. But when the national fatality rate looks somewhat positive for a short term we immediately shift to a more granular perspective?

The reality is we can use both sets of numbers (granular vs coarse) if we fully recognize and admit the limits of both. I'm sincerely happy to know fatalities aren't rising dramatically at the national scale as long as I admit the key word is "yet" as other lights are blinking. Too much uncertainty baked into this to believe the trend is sustainable or is even the most accurate portrayal of the weeks to come. Nonetheless, dropping below 500 deaths a day (7 day rolling average) is a positive, even if short lived.

So much to digest. So many competing politics at play.


----------



## backcountry

Ugh, the fatality rate is already rising. 2 days now way above that 500/day ebb.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> Ugh, the fatality rate is already rising. 2 days now way above that 500/day ebb.


I thought mortality rate has been falling? What did I miss?


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I dunno, yesterday we set a new record for number of kung flu cases in a day.

It's probably the beer talking right now, but if attitudes are contagious, mine might be fatal right now. Feeling a little bit more the "black pilled" at the moment. Mainly because between the slow uptick of COVID, riots, general civil unrest, and all the BS surrounding defunding of police, and I'm wondering if we are on a slow downward spiral into Armageddon. Yeah I know, that word sounds melodramatic.

Gonna relink this, if anything it's entertaining to watch.





The impression I have is that is the train we are on, only it is MUCH MUCH slower then what is depected in that drama-mentary. If that is even a word. oh... docudrama.. that was it. Anyway, the roman empire didn't fall in a day, or even a month, or even a year. I'll wager it was a slow downard spiral, and most alive at the time didn't think it was falling. Incrementalism is always easier to accept. Good reason to believe that whatever the outcome of novembers election, the other side will contest it, and a violent reaction is not out of the question. Combine that with an ever increasing uptick of kung flu, toss in flu season on top of that, civil unrest, and we'll have a perfect storm.

Ain't I a Debbie downer when I'm lit like a xmas tree? Think I'll go pop another beer, and fry a few more brain cells.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Ugh, the fatality rate is already rising. 2 days now way above that 500/day ebb.
> 
> 
> 
> I thought mortality rate has been falling? What did I miss?
Click to expand...

I could have been more precise...daily fatalities is what I was sad about. We had been hitting lows of around 300 for a while. Now pushing back up towards a thousand.

It was predicted, as Catheder highlighted, but I had allowed myself hope that it would lag a little longer. Knowing relatively fewer Americans were dying was a relief, even if short-lived and a bit naive.

Sorry for causing additional confusion. I don't know what current fatality rates are estimated at but I think that is part of the debate given hospitalizations and fatalities lag so much.

It's starting to look like enough Americans have decided we should just Selma and Louise this thing.


----------



## backcountry

Lone,

You are definitely making me feel like an optimist recently. 

I'm still not very concerned about civil unrest. Most follow up reporting I am seeing is showing agencies arresting individuals for arson and rioting who seem to be acting without coordination with any organizations like BLM. That to me is good news.

I still think most Americans are good people trying to figure this all out. No doubt we are battered and worse for the wear from COVID-19 but we'll get through it. It may be another year though. And if our leaders keep failing us than we'll just have to rely on our neighbors more than ever. 

So it goes. I'm also hopeful because so many talented scientists are working on vaccines and treatments. Would be a huge boost if the trials continue to be successful and we can get vaccines to healthcare workers by Dec/Jan and then to high risk individuals and facilities (veterans hospitals; long term care facilities; etc). 

I will say this.....it's been eye opening how much we rely upon low paid "essential" laborers. I knew it but it's hard to ignore now. And many of our essential systems, wether healthcare or grocery, have a disproportionate number of women filling those roles. Even more so when we get education back up and rolling. I'd say the curbside grocery services we use are staffed 10 to 1 by young women. It's given me food for thought (drumroll).


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> It's starting to look like enough Americans have decided we should just Selma and Louise this thing.


I know you're part of a high risk household. My mother who is pushing 70 now and has MS and certainly my 97 year old grandmother are both high risk. I have many family and close friends fit the bill as well, so the stark reality of death here is not lost on me, and I'm not in the crowd that says "We're all going to die anyway, let nature take its course."

I'm posting this not to be confrontational or argumentative, but hoping for real discussion here. As far as I can tell, best case scenario is we have a marginally effective vaccine by the end of the year. I think that is the absolute best we can hope for. What is the world/country supposed to do for the next 6 months? Let's look at higher education and collegiate athletics, as one example. Stanford announced today it is discontinuing 11 varsity sports after this year. The Ivy League announced it will not hold any fall sports. Well, it's just one season, part of the shared sacrifice we've been hearing about for months now. Except for if there is no college football this year, not only will I be one grumpy dude, the face of collegiate athletics will change forever. The damage will be irreparable. I heard the other day that approximately 80% of all collegiate athletics budgets across the country come from football related revenue. Take that away, even if for only one year, and colleges everywhere will be cutting most of their sports programs for good. Baseball, wrestling...good luck. That may not seem like a big deal to some, but now start thinking about all the people this impacts over generations. How many will be unable to attend college because of no scholarship? How does this trickle down stream? This is a huge deal, and is going to be impacted by decisions in the next few weeks that will be carried out over the next 6 months. And it is only ONE very small piece of the puzzle, yet we're talking about huge implications for millions of people over many generations. So again, what are we supposed to do for the next 6 months under this best case scenario? And even if the vaccine arrived by the end of the year, nobody in my household has any chance of getting it any time soon. And this is BEST case scenario.

Call me a downer, but I don't think the best case scenario is what will happen. I don't think we'll have a marginally effective vaccine by year's end. So let's say the marginally effective vaccine comes in spring of 2022 instead of early 2021. Now what is the country/world supposed to do for the next 18 months? What if a marginally effective vaccine NEVER comes? (How effective have we been with coronaviruses up to this point?) At a rate of 600 positive tests per day, it will take Utah ~16 years to go through the entire population. (If my math is correct) And by that time, what's the point?

Again, this isn't meant to be confrontational. I legitimately want to know what the expectations are here. This thing has done nothing that was expected and we keep changing week to week. Remember when sunlight and heat were going to make it go dormant and give us a reprieve to prepare for the fall/winter? I just don't see light at the end of the tunnel, and while I'm still doing my best to be a good citizen and we're limiting our activities as much as possible, I can see why some would want to Thelma and Louise this thing. What are our reasonable alternatives? And what are the true costs of those alternatives?

I'll hang up now and listen...


----------



## backcountry

All good questions. And fair to say I have no clue on the big picture solutions. I agree on a lot of what you say. There aren't many black and white answers left to hold onto.

Sadly I think we are in desperate need of moving back to square one. We are being reminded, fiercely, that none of us are able to get through this alone. We need some unity while also respecting the more Jacksonian element of independence and innovation. It seems contradictory but this seems like a moment in time where we need both and to harness their synergy. 

We can't expect every household to be hermetically sealed off but we also are all so interdependent, economically and physically during a viral pandemic. It's an inescapable reality at this point. It's playing out in real time.

We've succeeded at moments like this before but I'm not sure we've ever had so many culture wars tearing us apart at the same time. Luckily I know there are plenty of people smarter than me with vision and perseverance. I just hope they become the signal in all of this noise.

I enjoyed the optimistic numbers while they lasted. I knew they weren't sustainable but like I said earlier, fewer fellow Americans dying each day was sweet relief. I'm bracing for the full impact of this surge and sincerely hoping our fellow citizens do what's needed to prevent another NYC like catastrophe, nonetheless "dozens" like was forecasted (a little too confidently and flippantly IMHO) in the link I provided.

PS....every set of choices is bound to reverberate through multiple generations. I don't see a path forward where lots of people aren't left hurting. Sadly forces are at play that make it seem like health and economy are mutually exclusive instead of truly symbiotic. But even if we improve our response for the positive, thousands more households will suffer the early deaths of loved ones and/or economic strife. I just think both of those will be worse if we don't change course, and soon.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

Lone_Hunter said:


> I dunno, yesterday we set a new record for number of kung flu cases in a day.
> 
> It's probably the beer talking right now, but if attitudes are contagious, mine might be fatal right now. Feeling a little bit more the "black pilled" at the moment. Mainly because between the slow uptick of COVID, riots, general civil unrest, and all the BS surrounding defunding of police, and I'm wondering if we are on a slow downward spiral into Armageddon. Yeah I know, that word sounds melodramatic.
> 
> Gonna relink this, if anything it's entertaining to watch.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The impression I have is that is the train we are on, only it is MUCH MUCH slower then what is depected in that drama-mentary. If that is even a word. oh... docudrama.. that was it. Anyway, the roman empire didn't fall in a day, or even a month, or even a year. I'll wager it was a slow downard spiral, and most alive at the time didn't think it was falling. Incrementalism is always easier to accept. Good reason to believe that whatever the outcome of novembers election, the other side will contest it, and a violent reaction is not out of the question. Combine that with an ever increasing uptick of kung flu, toss in flu season on top of that, civil unrest, and we'll have a perfect storm.
> 
> Ain't I a Debbie downer when I'm lit like a xmas tree? Think I'll go pop another beer, and fry a few more brain cells.


 Well ain't you just a ray of sunshine.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

7MM RELOADED said:


> Well ain't you just a ray of sunshine.


Don't drink and post. Don't drink and shop online either. Don't drink and drive goes without saying.

I think this video is relevant to the Kung Flu. I loved the punch line. :mrgreen:


----------



## backcountry

At least a drink before I shop means I end up with higher quality waders than I deserve. 😁😆 I also ended up winning a drunken eBay bid on a trailer once that saved me thousands in rent but I was single and mobile during those halcyon days. 

I'll be honest, I don't watch anything when linked by that name. I think it's fair to say our actions own this virus. This is squarely 'Mericas virus now, at least how it's unfolding on our shores. I wouldn't be shocked if the halo on the virus is made up red, white and blue embellishments from a Cricket machine purchased at a local JoAnn's. It is using our cell's machinery to copy itself after all (granted we could get really dorky and highlight our DNA includes fair amount of genetic material from retroviruses but that has nothing to do with this).


----------



## CPAjeff

Perfect example of potential COVID precautions that don't make any sense . . .

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-game-day-protocols-for-2020-include-postgame-restrictions

So it's fine to go full contact for a game, but swapping jerseys at the end of the game is dangerous??


----------



## Lone_Hunter

https://www.fox13now.com/news/coron...overings-across-utah-but-schools-will-have-to


----------



## backcountry

CPAjeff said:


> Perfect example of potential COVID precautions that don't make any sense . . .
> 
> https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-game-day-protocols-for-2020-include-postgame-restrictions
> 
> So it's fine to go full contact for a game, but swapping jerseys at the end of the game is dangerous??


It makes sense. Which one is essential to the sport and hence can't be limited? Pretty basic risk management and seems like pretty easy low hanging fruit to knock out early in negotiations. Those jerseys are field worn and probably carry some nasty funk but we'll ultimately never truly know if it helps or not.

I could ultimately care less about the NFL but if I was a sport's city I'd be working close with professional sports like the MLB to ensure the season was a success given how much it truly benefits local businesses. I know the NFL drives a lot of taxes for it home city's and states but I'd be really focused on monies actually going into local business (for more home games) at the moment especially with a season that ends before influenza season.


----------



## middlefork

I'll say for me anyway that that sports no matter if college or pro has no appeal. I could care less if any team goes bankrupt. Along with almost all made for TV entertainment.

Yes it will suck for for those associated with it but it is what it is.

Now in the grand theme it is just another domino in the grand game of life. There are millions of dominoes in play and nobody is going to figure out how they are all going to fall.

Most if not all on here have no personal perspective of what people have lived through in the last hundred years. This is not the only challenge we have faced. I'm pretty sure we will get through it.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Well this was.... interesting.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinese-virologist-coronavirus-cover-up-flee-hong-kong-whistleblower

Watch the video. Our government should allow this woman all the resources she needs to continue her work.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> I know you're part of a high risk household. My mother who is pushing 70 now and has MS and certainly my 97 year old grandmother are both high risk. I have many family and close friends fit the bill as well, so the stark reality of death here is not lost on me, and I'm not in the crowd that says "We're all going to die anyway, let nature take its course."
> 
> I'm posting this not to be confrontational or argumentative, but hoping for real discussion here. As far as I can tell, best case scenario is we have a marginally effective vaccine by the end of the year. I think that is the absolute best we can hope for. What is the world/country supposed to do for the next 6 months? Let's look at higher education and collegiate athletics, as one example. Stanford announced today it is discontinuing 11 varsity sports after this year. The Ivy League announced it will not hold any fall sports. Well, it's just one season, part of the shared sacrifice we've been hearing about for months now. Except for if there is no college football this year, not only will I be one grumpy dude, the face of collegiate athletics will change forever. The damage will be irreparable. I heard the other day that approximately 80% of all collegiate athletics budgets across the country come from football related revenue. Take that away, even if for only one year, and colleges everywhere will be cutting most of their sports programs for good. Baseball, wrestling...good luck. That may not seem like a big deal to some, but now start thinking about all the people this impacts over generations. How many will be unable to attend college because of no scholarship? How does this trickle down stream? This is a huge deal, and is going to be impacted by decisions in the next few weeks that will be carried out over the next 6 months. And it is only ONE very small piece of the puzzle, yet we're talking about huge implications for millions of people over many generations. So again, what are we supposed to do for the next 6 months under this best case scenario? And even if the vaccine arrived by the end of the year, nobody in my household has any chance of getting it any time soon. And this is BEST case scenario.
> 
> Call me a downer, but I don't think the best case scenario is what will happen. I don't think we'll have a marginally effective vaccine by year's end. So let's say the marginally effective vaccine comes in spring of 2022 instead of early 2021. Now what is the country/world supposed to do for the next 18 months? What if a marginally effective vaccine NEVER comes? (How effective have we been with coronaviruses up to this point?) At a rate of 600 positive tests per day, it will take Utah ~16 years to go through the entire population. (If my math is correct) And by that time, what's the point?


I have meant to respond to this for a couple of days but have been working too much to get to it. I sure as heck don't have all the answers either but wanted to make a few points.

1. (How effective have we been with coronaviruses up to this point?) 

Science has created several successful animal coronavirus vaccines and had partially developed a SARS vaccine before the threat went away and funding dried up. Precedence favors us developing something that will help.

2. You guys may weary of these "538" links but here is another with Dr. Fauci.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-made-it-more-difficult-to-suppress-covid-19/

This interview is getting some national news run and is far ranging, but toward the end he talks about vaccine development. To me it sounds optimistic. One thing the developers are doing is pre-manufacturing the doses while they vacccine is going through 3rd stage trials. What that will allow is once a vaccine passes the trials and is shown safe and effective, then a goodly amount of doses can be*immediately* released for use. That will save a lot of time in increasing protection in the population. It also looks like there will be multiple vaccines that will pass approval. That will help too.

Now, social media harda** will scoff that some of these vaccines may not be 100% effective. Of course that is the goal but what if they are only 75% effective? That's still good enough. Do you think Herbert and Dr. Dunn would rather work with 75% less disease and all the parameters they measure compared to now? Heck yes. What about Arizona or Texas? No question. Even 50% less disease could make a world of difference in an outbreak and that is a fairly low bar for the vaccine to clear.

3. Remember that the goal has always been to flatten the curve, not eradicate it. That does mean that the disease will be around a while and we are stuck with these inconveniences like a mask and some level of social distancing, at least until a vaccine is available. I don't get how it became political, but it has and we now live with the consequences.

4. 2 questions both irritate the crap out of me but also give me hope that the US can do better.

A) Why is the US the ongoing epicenter of covid while the industrialized nations of Europe and Asia as well as Canada have low case loads and are able to open their economies without the mess we have now? Why do international health experts look at the US and shake their heads in disbelief and pity?

B) Why are we *still* having medical supply problems 4 months in to this?

I will let the reader answer them on their own......


----------



## backcountry

I will say I didn't have threatening to defund schools or young teachers l know looking into wills being on my 2020 Bingo card.

On one hand anyone with assets or life insurance payouts should probably have a good will in place but its a symptom that people are sincerely concerned. This is the first big threat many people have ever faced in their lives and it's changing their paradigm. 

Seems to me we are edging closer to a general strike if we keep forcing citizens back to work without meaningful strategies in place at every level of governance. We can't expect everyone to happily return or stay at work if we know it easily spreads in confined places with close contact. 

I post the teacher aspect as the list of friends and acquaintances that are in education talking about it publicly is growing this week. We are 5-8 weeks from that inflection point and I'm not sure teachers in general are happy with the current sacrificial attitude. 

That said we all know how critical quality education is beyond just the curriculum. I think we are being forced to to come to terms with the role schools play economically, ie subsidized childcare for dual income households (or single parents, etc). 

How do we get our economy stable if we don't account for this reality and honestly mitigate the risk of COVID-19 to the functioning of our schools and therefore society at large?

It's clear 70k, and growing, cases daily isn't setting us up for success there or elsewhere.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder, if we get 50% effective vaccine by January I’ll be extremely grateful. I know we won’t have a 100% effective vaccine, 50 will be appreciated and 75% that quickly would be an all-time awesome feat for this world. 

Man I hope you’re right! That would just be incredible.


----------



## RandomElk16

CPAjeff said:


> Perfect example of potential COVID precautions that don't make any sense . . .
> 
> https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-game-day-protocols-for-2020-include-postgame-restrictions
> 
> So it's fine to go full contact for a game, but swapping jerseys at the end of the game is dangerous??


Right.. if you get covid on field it will happen during the 3 hours BEFORE the swap lol.


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> Catherder, if we get 50% effective vaccine by January I'll be extremely grateful. I know we won't have a 100% effective vaccine, 50 will be appreciated and 75% that quickly would be an all-time awesome feat for this world.
> 
> Man I hope you're right! That would just be incredible.


Talked about vaccines this weekend:

Say France gets a vaccine that is 90% effective. Then the US develops one that is 65% effective. It's pretty crazy that the US would still probably use their own.

South Korea made great tests... the US still is spitting out false positives and TONS of false negatives left and right.


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> Talked about vaccines this weekend:
> 
> Say France gets a vaccine that is 90% effective. Then the US develops one that is 65% effective. It's pretty crazy that the US would still probably use their own.
> 
> South Korea made great tests... the US still is spitting out false positives and TONS of false negatives left and right.


#AmericaFirst #MAGA


----------



## Packout

I'm still trying to figure out France's testing results- hundreds for days, then low-mid thousands then 50k over 4 days, then back down to low-mid thousands and quickly down into the now hundreds. Is their secret sauce not testing or is it the bread? And some might think I was joking, but more and more it looks like diet plays in a major way to how the virus does its damage.


----------



## DallanC

RandomElk16 said:


> Talked about vaccines this weekend:
> 
> Say France gets a vaccine that is 90% effective. Then the US develops one that is 65% effective. It's pretty crazy that the US would still probably use their own.
> 
> South Korea made great tests... the US still is spitting out false positives and TONS of false negatives left and right.


Did we ever get it as high as 65%? I read it was much less. People are creating policy based off of inconsistant data. Why aren't all sick people tested? I said in the past, a few houses down from me a family got sick from a cruise, one child eventually got so bad it was taken to a hospital where it tested positive. The rest of the family wasnt even tested. So statistically, that family was 5x under reported.

The latest findings are those forehead temperature readings businesses are doing are only 50% effective. So they aren't at all reliable either, yet people seem to place full faith in it.

Where are standards and guidelines regarding masks? You cant know if the person standing next to you in a mask used quality materials, proper layers, proper fitment etc etc. I see groups of people with masks standing very close to each other I guess trusting the masks will keep them safe? They should be wearing a mask AND maintaining proper distances. This was a good point brought up in the early pages of this thread, people getting a false sense of security just because they or others around them have a mask.

I think alot of the spread is due to people falsely thinking they safe around someone wiht a mask, safe when other peoples temperatures are read etc etc... that and these nutty mass gathering protests.

-DallanC


----------



## RandomElk16

DallanC said:


> Did we ever get it as high as 65%? I read it was much less. People are creating policy based off of inconsistant data. Why aren't all sick people tested? I said in the past, a few houses down from me a family got sick from a cruise, one child eventually got so bad it was taken to a hospital where it tested positive. The rest of the family wasnt even tested. So statistically, that family was 5x under reported.


I was speaking hypothetically about a vaccine.

That even if another country develops a better one - we will use ours. Same with the tests.


----------



## backcountry

Masks can definitely provide a false sense of security but even then it's better than standing next to someone without a mask without social distancing, which has clearly been going on. 

Fact is people have essential shopping and we'll bump into other's social distancing bubbles occasionally. Masks are an imperfect, but simple to do, attempt to mitigate some of that risk. There will never be quantifiable way to measure individual benefit in the field though.

I haven't seen info on false viral testing in a while. Where are people drawing numbers from?

Had a scheduled visit to hospital today Looks like protocol has stabilized and our new normal will probably be in effect for at least another 9 months. I've always been impressed with IHCs and the UofUs preparedness. They are doing what they exactly should: temperature checks, limiting visitors, mandatory masks, attempts at creating physical distance and hand sanitation. All easy to adopt and highly effective.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> CPAjeff said:
> 
> 
> 
> Perfect example of potential COVID precautions that don't make any sense . . .
> 
> https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-game-day-protocols-for-2020-include-postgame-restrictions
> 
> So it's fine to go full contact for a game, but swapping jerseys at the end of the game is dangerous??
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Right.. if you get covid on field it will happen during the 3 hours BEFORE the swap lol.
Click to expand...

Still don't understand the response to this policy. Besides the risk to players (it's real) there is everyone else they will be forced into relatively close contact with in staffing. On an average day it's a pretty gross tradition sanitation wise but it's pretty crazy to put up a stink over it (players) during a pandemic. If they want a career and paycheck they'll learn to live without it.

Just send each other new jerseys or wash the things than mail them afterwards.

Someone mentioned not caring about sports before....I'm completely uninterested in professional sports, and even most college sports. But it's a huge part of our economy and culture, as Vanilla hinted at. I listen to AM radio while driving alone and tuned into some sports radio yesterday. The implications are pretty serious to seniors in high school and college. Many rely upon those seasons for professional trajectory. Not to mention all the scholarships and funds those programs bring into the schools and community.

I heard some interesting criticisms and logistical solutions. Will be very interesting to see where they land.


----------



## Vanilla

I'm not a baseball fan. At all. But let's just look at the impact there on individuals. 

In 2019 the MLB draft had 40 (plus some) rounds and there were 1217 kids drafted to play professional baseball. 

In 2020 the same draft, due to the corona, held 5 rounds (plus some) and there were a total of 160 kids drafted to play professional baseball. 

I know many of those drafted in the 40+ rounds elect to not even go pro, and many more flame out somewhere in the minors, but this is a significant impact on people. And it's just baseball. Again, one tiny piece of a giant puzzle, but it's still significant. 

They better figure out a way to play football this fall or colleges are screwed.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> Still don't understand the response to this policy. Besides the risk to players (it's real) there is everyone else they will be forced into relatively close contact with in staffing. On an average day it's a pretty gross tradition sanitation wise but it's pretty crazy to put up a stink over it (players) during a pandemic. If they want a career and paycheck they'll learn to live without it.
> 
> Just send each other new jerseys or wash the things than mail them afterwards.
> 
> Someone mentioned not caring about sports before....I'm completely uninterested in professional sports, and even most college sports. But it's a huge part of our economy and culture, as Vanilla hinted at. I listen to AM radio while driving alone and tuned into some sports radio yesterday. The implications are pretty serious to seniors in high school and college. Many rely upon those seasons for professional trajectory. Not to mention all the scholarships and funds those programs bring into the schools and community.
> 
> I heard some interesting criticisms and logistical solutions. Will be very interesting to see where they land.


I think it's more the humor in things. If its THAT dangerous then they shouldn't be doing the 3 hours of activity before. Its like wearing a mask for only 1% of your grocery trip, amusement park trip, etc...

There isn't some big debate here about that policy - it's more the humor that the extra 2 seconds of contact should be avoided but the previous 3 hours of activity is fine.

I have realized more than ever the value of sports. In a world where we only talk about corona and politics... I'm over it.


----------



## backcountry

Totally get how it comes off. Just bemused players think it's a problem, ie original tweet. If my livelihood was dependent on a short season I would be doing everything to make it a success. Definitely not whining about manky jersey exchanges that has nothing to do with play or my income. I'd say a better comparison is its more like being asked to give up window shopping but recognizing grocery shopping is essential and therefore worth the risk.

At the end of the day I'd be fine to see the NFL fold myself but I'll be honest that I never forgave them or Denver for the stadium deal they made. Citizens shouldn't have to pay for stadiums when owners and the NFL make so much moolah. But it's also the fact that NFL games just don't pack the same economic punch for local businesses; city, yes; a handful of franchises yes, but it doesn't have the economic windfall of MLB, etc for the average business. If we have to lose one professional sport I say down with the NFL. 

On a side note...I think it's symbolic and representative of how many businesses are coping. I'm shocked how many in person meetings my wife's company is still having. Almost a dozen people, 90% without masks, in an enclosed space for hours; talk about low hanging fruit. And talking to others it's common. But I live in an area in which any concerted effort to mitigate a disease that has killed 130k+ citizens in a little over 4 months is considered overblown. I know that's not the case everywhere.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> I'd say a better comparison is its more like being asked to give up window shopping


It is so strange to me to see people hostile that Lagoon didn't have a mask policy. Not a mask debate.. but more so the fact that people are super concerned about their health and this virus but HAVE to go to a filthy, completely non-essential place.

My favorite thing is people continuing to freak out at others while doing completely voluntary things.

Unfortunately there are people like your wife's work that are holding in person meetings and doubling down by not requiring masks. That's where you can be upset about masks or necessity. Totally reasonable to address that one.

Lagoon maskers are privileged when looking at the two (since that is the new derogatory term).

TOTP on 200 - PBH sure missed that one.


----------



## backcountry

Definitely inconsistent. Don't understand Lagoon opening up or being mask optional during our spike. 

I think Cedar dodged a bullet when Shakespeare and Summer Games cancelled. I can't imagine that many people, often older, patronizing our town during a pandemic. Don't envy tourist towns that are largely open.

My wife had tried at work but she was really the only voicing concern. Sadly they've had a positive test with an employee now and we are hoping they see how proactive policy helps sustain a business.


----------



## PBH

****! I've been checking this thread every couple minutes, trying to make sure that I get that magical TOTP #200 post -- I've even posted 3 different replies, then deleted because they didn't make it to the top...

...I walked away for 2 minutes, and Random hit's the money-maker!

That's it. I quit.





Now I'm back.


Our company, here in Cedar, hasn't held in-person meetings since March. It's kind of weird to hold my department meeting virtually, when 3 of the 4 of us sit in the same area. We get some crazy echos going on with our mics picking up the other person's voice from across the room. Oh well, we are doing what we can.


----------



## backcountry

Jealous your company is taking it seriously from get go.

My wife has figured out how to make social distancing (lumping all concepts together) work for her but no company policy yet. 

Heard some similar concerns about NFL yesterday as I've had with her work: who do you quarantine if someone tests positive after being asymptomatic? For a team that could mean everyone. For a small business many employees interact, at least at hers, over the course of a work week. They have policy but that could quickly become insufficient with a business that needs 24/7 staffing. It's tough but it's all the more reason I'm shocked they aren't being more diligent from the get go. 

Enough of that. My count on site is still below 2k. Do we win something for 2000th post at TOTP? Sportsman's permit transferred to winner like a bad White Elephant gift exchange?


----------



## PBH

We have a Safety department, and an HR department that have done a good job in developing and implementing a Pandemic Response Plan which includes (among many other things) a plant access health screening. This screening includes daily temperature checks prior to entering the facility, and four questions concerning travel, contact with people diagnosed with Covid19, contact with people who have traveled outside the US, and if you've had any symptoms within 14 days.

We also have our janitorial staff that follows cleaning procedures, particularly for "high touch" surfaces.

Social distancing protocols have been put into place (face masks where 6+ feet distance cannot be maintained, virtual meetings, break rooms maximum of 2 people, etc.). 

Just like any other regulatory requirement of us doing business, we've taken precautions with this as well. I guess that's just part of being in a critical infrastructure business.


----------



## Catherder

PBH said:


> We have a Safety department, and an HR department that have done a good job in developing and implementing a Pandemic Response Plan which includes (among many other things) a plant access health screening. This screening includes daily temperature checks prior to entering the facility, and four questions concerning travel, contact with people diagnosed with Covid19, contact with people who have traveled outside the US, and if you've had any symptoms within 14 days.
> 
> We also have our janitorial staff that follows cleaning procedures, particularly for "high touch" surfaces.
> 
> Social distancing protocols have been put into place (face masks where 6+ feet distance cannot be maintained, virtual meetings, break rooms maximum of 2 people, etc.).
> 
> Just like any other regulatory requirement of us doing business, we've taken precautions with this as well. I guess that's just part of being in a critical infrastructure business.


The fun part is when you are a small business owner and you are stuck developing a business covid protocol *yourself*. Talk about a couple of sleepless nights back in March. We did have some resources to refer to. Knock on wood, we have been OK so far. Some of the clients struggle with it at times, but most are at least understanding.


----------



## middlefork

Man a few days without service and I thought we had it beat.:sad:


----------



## bowgy

Turn the sound down, I don't like the music


----------



## RandomElk16

California barely opens up some small businesses (after their spike is happening), then shuts them down.

It's almost like the big businesses that get to be open the entire time play a larger role in this. Even studies of gyms show really low case instances (though I prefer a schedule your workout/100sqft of room per member structure).


I feel like a number of small businesses have had great plans. It's almost like their entire livelihood depends on it. Big business knows they get to keep on going.


----------



## Kwalk3

RandomElk16 said:


> California barely opens up some small businesses (after their spike is happening), then shuts them down.
> 
> It's almost like the big businesses that get to be open the entire time play a larger role in this. Even studies of gyms show really low case instances (though I prefer a schedule your workout/100sqft of room per member structure).


I still think for me, personally, it will be a while before I make it back to the gym. Have substituted more hikes with sandbags, and trail running, but I do miss lifting.

Really just wanted post #2000 though.


----------



## backcountry

If I report Kwalk3's post, since it obviously breaks community guidelines, will post #2000 shift to this one?

😬😝

What did he win?


----------



## RandomElk16

Kwalk3 said:


> I still think for me, personally, it will be a while before I make it back to the gym. Have substituted more hikes with sandbags, and trail running, but I do miss lifting.
> 
> Really just wanted post #2000 though.


The gym is one of the biggest parts of my life - it's therapy. But I haven't been since March.

I was excited for Orange phase. You had to schedule your workout, a lot of the unnecessary features and classes were closed, they distanced the equipment, and they gave each member 100sqft area all while daily sprays of the equipment and increased cleaning supplies. I figured I would give orange a full 2-3 weeks to see the impact. Apparently Utah was less patient than myself and within that time felt that they had data (didn't) to go yellow and with that the gym was fully opened.

While the data suggests a low risk, and I don't worry about myself, I have high risk people in my house and so I have made the home gym improvements needed to get me by.

BUT - I am going crazy and do miss it.


----------



## Kwalk3

RandomElk16 said:


> The gym is one of the biggest parts of my life - it's therapy. But I haven't been since March.
> 
> I was excited for Orange phase. You had to schedule your workout, a lot of the unnecessary features and classes were closed, they distanced the equipment, and they gave each member 100sqft area all while daily sprays of the equipment and increased cleaning supplies. I figured I would give orange a full 2-3 weeks to see the impact. Apparently Utah was less patient than myself and within that time felt that they had data (didn't) to go yellow and with that the gym was fully opened.
> 
> While the data suggests a low risk, and I don't worry about myself, I have high risk people in my house and so I have made the home gym improvements needed to get me by.
> 
> BUT - I am going crazy and do miss it.


Totally understand that. I think people laugh at me a bit when I tell them hiking/slow-running in the mountains is legitimately therapy for me. Can't imagine my mental state if those were to be taken away from me.


----------



## Kwalk3

backcountry said:


> If I report Kwalk3's post, since it obviously breaks community guidelines, will post #2000 shift to this one?
> 
> &#128556;&#128541;
> 
> What did he win?


Look at the bright side, I left TOTP for you. I could have been greedy and taken them both.....


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I just wanted to say, it is impossible to avoid exposing yourself while driving down any mountain road these days.. Exposing yourself being defined as being within 6 feet of someone without a mask on.

We've all done it, driving down a mountain road, glassing into some canyon, road is narrow, you move to one side or the other, and truck mirrors are clearing each other by inches. 

There's always that one guy, who wants to stop and talk. Always. Wearing a mask while in my own truck, on the mountain, is not something I'd consider.... right up until that one guy has to talk. He couldn't just keep going. no no.. "hey, you seen anything" :roll:

So, now my wife has relegated me wearing a mask around the house, sleeping on spare bed in the basement, and eating my meals in the office for the next two weeks. I'm spending more time in the office, since it's wear I eat now, i can take that **** mask off. Rest of the house is mask city. I'm thinking about bringing a cot in here as then I can at least watch movies on the computer in relative comfort.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> So, now my wife has relegated me wearing a mask around the house, sleeping on spare bed in the basement, and eating my meals in the office for the next two weeks. I'm spending more time in the office, since it's wear I eat now, i can take that **** mask off. Rest of the house is mask city. I'm thinking about bringing a cot in here as then I can at least watch movies on the computer in relative comfort.


Me and my wife already had "the talk". If it comes down to it and anyone needs to self isolate, the camp trailer is the isolation spot. It has everything from AC / TV, hot showers... better than a motel room. Even enough room to setup a desk and do "work from home" stuff.

I fully expect this to blow out of control this fall / winter. We're stocking up on cheap supplies while they are A) cheap, and B) more importantly available. Kindof hitting the next tier of supplies beyond the basics. We bought a oximeter to measure oxygen levels (didnt realize how cool those multipurpose things are), even picked up a oxygen concentrator for a semi-worst case scenario.

Several co-workers are actively doing the same thing. We share ideas or items to stock up on. I figure we have about 3 months before SHTF. $1000 gets you an amazing amount of supplies atm.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Me and my wife already had "the talk". If it comes down to it and anyone needs to self isolate, the camp trailer is the isolation spot. It has everything from AC / TV, hot showers... better than a motel room. Even enough room to setup a desk and do "work from home" stuff.
> 
> I fully expect this to blow out of control this fall / winter. We're stocking up on cheap supplies while they are A) cheap, and B) more importantly available. Kindof hitting the next tier of supplies beyond the basics. We bought a oximeter to measure oxygen levels (didnt realize how cool those multipurpose things are), even picked up a oxygen concentrator for a semi-worst case scenario.
> 
> Several co-workers are actively doing the same thing. We share ideas or items to stock up on. I figure we have about 3 months before SHTF. $1000 gets you an amazing amount of supplies atm.
> 
> -DallanC


Yeah our 5th wheel, is an idea my wife floated. I'm not entirely sold on it, as ours is OLD, meaning the AC is R12, and it barely runs. Right now, you might just die in that trailer with it being in the highs in the 100s. Come flu season, when the temps drop, I see it as more of an option.

Currently, I honestly don't think I have anything currently, as 90% odds I don't, but you never know so I'll have to endure this routine for the next week and a half. The infection plan I've had in place, is to seal up the master bedroom like your doing asbesto's abatement, with an "airlock" of sorts to leave food for whoever is sick. Master bedroom has everything someone would need to recover. Where as our old 5th wheel,.... eh. not quite as much. I've a roll of visqueen down in the basement just for this purpose. Since there is no return air duct in any of the bedrooms, I just have to make sure there is no air being drawn from underneath the door. Will have crack/open the masterbedroom window to depressurize the room.

But yeah, I'm expecting a coming storm as well. Towards the end of this month we should be getting a home food freeze dryer from harvest right. That's where our stimulus check went. My wife really wanted it, and I figure home made mountain house for hunts would be pretty cool. Once we get that thing up and running, we'll be adding more to our longterm food stores. Going to have to brave a costco run next weekend. I expect we'll be setting a new record for ourselves in how much we spend in one day.

I don't think we've seen anything yet. Given the upward trend on infection rates (you think it would go DOWN right now like any other flu), and throw in flu season on top of that, we're all going to be in for a rough ride.


----------



## backcountry

To those stocking up on medical equipment like oxygen concentrators I'd recommend caution without proper expertise. The little bit I've learned dealing with non-invasive ventilation for my MIL has me very skeptical about what most of us, including myself, understand about such complex systems. Dealing with a pulmonologist and respiratory therapist has opened my eyes to how quickly things like misapplied or mishandled supplemental oxygen can turn deadly. It seems obvious now but playing with oxygen with a body that isn't self-regulating properly anymore can lead to CO2 buildup faster than you realize.

Just a though on avocationally diving into medical equipment. Buyer beware.

I had to talk a family member down from purchasing $1500 in N95 ventilators than claim to "annihilate" viruses as well. Some serious quackery, price gouging, and cut and run operations on the loose at the moment.

Its been interesting to watch what has returned to stock and what hasn't. Still no chlorox wipes wherever I look but we still have 1.5 tubes of the 2 we bought in March. TP and paper towels seem to be fine again. But hand soap refills (not small one with pumps) are struggling if you want something other than Softsoap. Hand Sanitizer is fine if you don't mind your hands smelling like vodka or tequila.

My household is trying to stay ahead on food and essentials but its tough to keep staples you actually use much more than 3 months ahead without an intricate inventory system and lots of space. We are behind compared to many Utah families but I know multiple people in my extended family were shocked that we have buckets of rice, bean/lentils, and a deep freeze. Several had no clue you could buy TP in 30 packs. No matter the case I'm struggling to stay much more than 2-3 months ahead on food without stockpiling stuff that is either wicked expensive (freeze dried) or stuff we'll never eat (we don't eat canned goods very often) and will more than likely expire.

But to be honest I don't believe sustained food insecurity will be the deal breaker in our situation.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> Currently, I honestly don't think I have anything currently, as 90% odds I don't, but you never know so I'll have to endure this routine for the next week and a half. The infection plan I've had in place, is to seal up the master bedroom like your doing asbesto's abatement, with an "airlock" of sorts to leave food for whoever is sick. Master bedroom has everything someone would need to recover. Where as our old 5th wheel,.... eh. not quite as much. I've a roll of visqueen down in the basement just for this purpose. Since there is no return air duct in any of the bedrooms, I just have to make sure there is no air being drawn from underneath the door. Will have crack/open the masterbedroom window to depressurize the room.


Certainly not ideal, but its a good plan until you come up with something better. visqueen is dang handy stuff, I keep alot of it around and am constantly cutting it up for different uses and buying more.

If we do hit a worst case winter infection / lockdown scenario, I'm already planning to make double layer visqueen / pvc arch green house over our garden area. You could get crops started late feb or early march. There is a youtube video of a guy in alaska with double layer green houses and raises crops well into the snow months.



> But yeah, I'm expecting a coming storm as well. Towards the end of this month we should be getting a home food freeze dryer from harvest right. That's where our stimulus check went. My wife really wanted it, and I figure home made mountain house for hunts would be pretty cool. Once we get that thing up and running, we'll be adding more to our longterm food stores.


Do let me know how that works out for you. I'm very interested. Post here or PM me.



> Going to have to brave a costco run next weekend. I expect we'll be setting a new record for ourselves in how much we spend in one day.


Yep, nows the time to stock up guilt free... lots of stuff back in stock and people with the false sense of security thinking the runs are behind us. Feels like when 22LR came back instock after that first run on ammo after Sandyhook, I bought a case as prices fell... then another case when overproduction really crashed the prices. LOL



> I don't think we've seen anything yet. Given the upward trend on infection rates (you think it would go DOWN right now like any other flu), and throw in flu season on top of that, we're all going to be in for a rough ride.


I think:

A) much like spanish flu the following winter from the initial infections will be orders of magnitude over what we've seen thus far.

B) the economy is going to be virtually destroyed. Read a report this morning from Bank of America that without further stimulus most small businesses will be out of cash and bankrupt by August. In fact, in all the time I've watched KSL for deals, I've never seen entire businesses being listed for sale... and there were 2 today I saw listed (large businesses, not home brew stuff). Wierd

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Lone, this might be a dumb question, but instead of just guessing and being miserable for the next 10-14 days in your living accommodations, why not just go get tested? 

List that you have a cough on the online form and they’ll test you tomorrow.


----------



## middlefork

Vanilla said:


> Lone, this might be a dumb question, but instead of just guessing and being miserable for the next 10-14 days in your living accommodations, why not just go get tested?
> 
> List that you have a cough on the online form and they'll test you tomorrow.


And if he tests negative tommorrow but positive 5 days later what has he accomplished? Spread that asympatic virus to all around.

And I'm sorry but a random encounter on a mountain road without a mask has how much risk versus everyday encounters with or without a mask?

But then again everybody has their own fear factor. If the infection rate is 20% positive every encounter with another person is a 1 in 5 chance of running into a positive.

People carry on about the draw odds for hunts all day long. Maybe run the math on the virus.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Cause I honestly think I'm fine. It's my wife whom I've come to realize is far more fearful then I thought. I can't blame her though, I'm not the one with asthma and COPD. As she told me, she's terrified, wants to cry, but can't. She was pretty angry at me when I got home and told her. One could argue, "why tell her"? I tell her everything. I'm not keeping anything from her. Looking at the statistics published by our state, if I'm reading it correctly, 10% of tests done come back positive. There's several ways you could look at that.
- 1 out of every 10 is catching the kung flu (sounds like bad odds, honestly)
- 9 out of 10 people are not contracting it (sounds like a good way to say it)
-90% odds one random encounter isn't going to result in an infection. (anotehr good way to say it)


The thing is, my wife is medically trained. She's far too knowledgeable. Protocols to her are absolutes. I wish I could have seen how much elk went to waste when she proccessed the elk I packed out last year. She told me alot, will start spouting off all kinds of nasty bacteria and diseases that exist in the soil or what not. 

*sigh* So I think I'm fine, I'm just doing this because I kinda have to. Then again, who knows, if I start running a fever in a few days, then... i guess i'll have a real crappy time of things for a few weeks and hope I'll regain enough strength for the bow hunt.


----------



## backcountry

The good news is the odds are better than you are describing. Test positivity rates are just from number tested that day. Odds of getting it from a rando who comes up to you while outside are pretty much impossible to calculate but I'd wager you are even less than 1%. It's possible you got it but not probable.

Our high risk household has probably had a half dozen of those encounters since March. We can't stop people from forgetting or, bluntly, not caring one bit I do my best with protocols but I've had to come to terms with instances like that. We can't isolate that way in our house, physically or social needs wise.

Fingers crossed for ya mate. Hopefully in the long run it's just a minor scare.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

It really is impossible to eliminate exposure no matter how careful you are. We've had 3 staff members who were exposed. One through her bishop, another from a wedding (that was dumb), and another, I dunno how. All despite stringent protocol. You can't regulate peoples private lives, nor the decisions they make. All you can do, is encourage them to not be "that guy" who shuts the place down and puts everyone out of work. Although, I think there is some covid proviso that allows people to keep getting their pay despite all that. I forget the name, but it's almost encouraging stupidity.


----------



## middlefork

Like I said everybody has their own fear factor.

Medically trained is a double edge sword. The worst hypocondriacts I have know were "medically trained". :smile:

I have had my share of medical training although as a first responder for almost 40 years. You do what needs to be done to minimize the risk. Oh and keep the wife happy!

Having just reached a milestone in age and coming off some serious health issues a little more than a year ago I'm certainly in the "high risk" catagory. All I can say is I hope for the best and try to prepare for the worst.


----------



## backcountry

Knowledge can definitely be emotionally dangerous. I've seen that play out poorly with friends. 

I can't think of many moments in life with this type of uncertainty. We've adjusted to more risk but it's walking a tight rope some days. We are about to transition to out of pocket in-home care until we switch to hospice sometime in the next couple months. We hope to find a trained nurse who has a "similar" situation and needs supplemental income but that's a tall order; but ideally we'll find someone to "quaran-team" with that has similar risk management. But if we can't find that we'll have to seriously consider really opening our bubble up differently as the level of care taking we are already experiencing the last week is the type that easily leads to resentment and other unhealthy emotions even with people you deeply care for and love.

Then I realize the millions of people in similar or worse situations. It's pretty easy to blow past black and white boundaries when you are dealing with severe health problems during a pandemic. Good chance I may never see a friend ever again as his cancer came back after a year out from pretty serious esophageal cancer; treatment odds are good in his case but they said the same thing a year ago. We talk regularly but I know he's freaked out by dealing with this during a pandemic, and he's not easily frightened. 

So many households navigating such conflicting health and safety needs. You try to educate yourself, behave appropriately and then the rest is out of our control. So is life.

Live and love fully when you are healthy is the lesson being taught to me (again) this year. That and murder hornets are a real thing.


----------



## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> And if he tests negative tommorrow but positive 5 days later what has he accomplished?


Lone mentioned he was having to do something for the next 10 days because of a potential exposure. A negative test would show that exposure didn't infect him. That's what it accomplishes.

I agree his chances are low based upon what happened. But a negative test let's him get back to normal in a day or two instead of 10-14 days. That would mean something to me.

What happens in 5 days is completely irrelevant to the concern he described or to my response. But by your statements here, nobody should get tested. Why? What does it accomplish?


----------



## middlefork

Testing verifys positive or negative at the TIME of testing. You can test positive anytime after possible exposure. Hence the requirement for symptoms before testing.

You do understand that symptom are required for testing as indicated by your response. And even with those requirements there is only what a 7% postive factor?

If it takes testing positive for someone to try and do the right thing to limit the spread to others it is already too late. If you want to do the reset every time you have contact with someone outside your bubble it will definately be a long hard road.


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## backcountry

I think he's talking about false negative rates during early testing, though middlefork can clarify himself.

Tests done too early have false negative rates more than three times higher than those who wait until they are symptomatic according to meta-analysis by John Hopkins.

https://www.clinicaloncology.com/CO...Found-If-COVID-19-Testing-Done-Too-Soon/58781

We don't hear about this as much but it's a huge factor in how individuals and companies should proceed with testing. The implications of someone potentially exposed (pretty miniscule for Lone but still possible) getting a false positive and returning confidently to interaction with high risk individuals or coworkers would be unfortunate.

It's a variable this country really needs to work on before influenza season hits us.


----------



## Vanilla

Middlefork, context matters in conversations. You’re missing it here BIG TIME! 

I don’t think anyone should go get tested so they can be reckless in their behavior forevermore. I never said anything about what you’re talking about here. Lone posted something I was replying to directly. You can go back and figure out why based upon the context.


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## DallanC

IDK what to believe with testing anymore. People can have it but test negative? Its a matter of testing for the virus or testing for the antibody. Sounds like people are getting the wrong tests... or the tests need to look for BOTH Covid AND the antibody.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/us/texas-nurse-hospitalized-coronavirus-trnd/index.html



> Antibody tests can help identify recent past infections, not current ones, though *even when antibodies are present, the tests can be wrong up to half the time*, the US Centers for Disease Control noted in May.


-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

False negatives exist for many (but not all) diagnostic tests. But we've known for months that the rapid COVID-19 tests (especially Abbott's) can have unusually high false negative rates, ranging from 20% and up. (50% claim was an error on my part; finding half of the positives as other tests doesn't equal 50% false positive).

https://khn.org/news/abbott-rapid-test-problems-grow-fda-standards-on-covid-tests-under-fire/

It's a predictable aspect of medicine but seems to exacerbated during a novel virus. Emergency measures to approve tests like Abbot's undoubtedly provide benefits but we are also seeing they come with clear costs.

From a modern diagnostic criteria standpoint it would be highly unusual to use both viral PCR and antibody tests for someone that was currently symptomatic. I'd think the best practice would be to use one of the higher accuracy tests (upwards of 99% success) and have the individual quarantine until results return.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

middlefork said:


> Testing verifys positive or negative at the TIME of testing.
> 
> ...
> 
> You do understand that symptom are required for testing...


What he said. ^

I have no symptoms. Why plug up the testing center with my happy ass when I have no physical evidence to cause reason to be checked?

I can suck it for the next week or so. It's annoying, but it's not a big deal.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

Did you hear i bet the virus will get soooo much better now because now the CDC was ordered to give all the numbers to the WH now first and they are not up for public review so I expect to hear that we are cured before this Nov.:shock:


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> What he said. ^
> 
> I have no symptoms. Why plug up the testing center with my happy ass when I have no physical evidence to cause reason to be checked?
> 
> I can suck it for the next week or so. It's annoying, but it's not a big deal.


Fair enough. Was only a suggestion to solve an issue you complained about. If you're happy, I'm happy.


----------



## RandomElk16

backcountry said:


> False negatives exist for many (but not all) diagnostic tests. But we've known for months that the rapid COVID-19 tests (especially Abbott's) can have unusually high false negative rates, ranging from 20% and up. (50% claim was an error on my part; finding half of the positives as other tests doesn't equal 50% false positive).
> 
> https://khn.org/news/abbott-rapid-test-problems-grow-fda-standards-on-covid-tests-under-fire/
> 
> It's a predictable aspect of medicine but seems to exacerbated during a novel virus. Emergency measures to approve tests like Abbot's undoubtedly provide benefits but we are also seeing they come with clear costs.
> 
> From a modern diagnostic criteria standpoint it would be highly unusual to use both viral PCR and antibody tests for someone that was currently symptomatic. I'd think the best practice would be to use one of the higher accuracy tests (upwards of 99% success) and have the individual quarantine until results return.


Huntsman had symptoms and got a false negative. It really seems unusually high with this.

The antibody tests can come back positive if you had a cold (I have only loosely read those articles, but enough to create doubt).

It's what I said earlier: Other countries (S Korea) already had great tests but we HAD to use our own (93498247 versions that all are different).


----------



## backcountry

7MM RELOADED said:


> Did you hear i bet the virus will get soooo much better now because now the CDC was ordered to give all the numbers to the WH now first and they are not up for public review so I expect to hear that we are cured before this Nov.


I wish more analysis was being done about this. It's being reported but the implications of an executive so transparently taking data collection out of the hands of science based organization (whose messaging he dislikes) and instead putting it into a political organization under greater control of the WH are severe.

This is some Victor Orban level maneuvering. And it doesn't bode well for the health and well-being of our fellow citizens or nation. But to be honest I don't think our POTUS has ever cared about either of those as narcissist only care about themselves. If something doesn't change in the weeks to come than we are going to watch 50 individual states struggle instead of having a centralized response that helps unite our nation's full/true capacity.


----------



## backcountry

RandomElk16 said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> False negatives exist for many (but not all) diagnostic tests. But we've known for months that the rapid COVID-19 tests (especially Abbott's) can have unusually high false negative rates, ranging from 20% and up. (50% claim was an error on my part; finding half of the positives as other tests doesn't equal 50% false positive).
> 
> https://khn.org/news/abbott-rapid-test-problems-grow-fda-standards-on-covid-tests-under-fire/
> 
> It's a predictable aspect of medicine but seems to exacerbated during a novel virus. Emergency measures to approve tests like Abbot's undoubtedly provide benefits but we are also seeing they come with clear costs.
> 
> From a modern diagnostic criteria standpoint it would be highly unusual to use both viral PCR and antibody tests for someone that was currently symptomatic. I'd think the best practice would be to use one of the higher accuracy tests (upwards of 99% success) and have the individual quarantine until results return.
> 
> 
> 
> Huntsman had symptoms and got a false negative. It really seems unusually high with this.
> 
> The antibody tests can come back positive if you had a cold (I have only loosely read those articles, but enough to create doubt).
> 
> It's what I said earlier: Other countries (S Korea) already had great tests but we HAD to use our own (93498247 versions that all are different).
Click to expand...

Antibody tests are always tough but especially so early in the process. They'll slowly refine those markers and get better results.

I try to ignore most non-science journalism about immunity but it does give a vague picture of what's happening. I don't trust the confidence of the reporting but we are seeing even more talk about short-lived immunity from the infection. I'm hopeful folks will at least have a year or more from natural exposure but the experts are still studying it.

That said, I'm more hopeful on a vaccine than ever. The next steps in protocol are critical and uncertain but to have made it this far, this fast is a great sign. So many talented people putting everything they have into finding tools to help our nation and the world right now.

Per going it alone....I need to study up on other nations responses again. To be honest I had to step back from it as it was depressing early on. I still don't know how we've allowed our nation to remain on this trajectory (comparative testing outcomes, supply chain, etc) when other nations are managing it so much better. I remain hopeful because of our people but it's not easy some days.


----------



## DallanC

3M and MIT joining forces to create quicker, more reliable antigen tests.

https://www.startribune.com/3m-mit-team-up-to-develop-quicker-cheaper-covid-19-test/571757982/

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

7MM RELOADED said:


> Did you hear i bet the virus will get soooo much better now because now the CDC was ordered to give all the numbers to the WH now first and they are not up for public review so I expect to hear that we are cured before this Nov.:shock:


I guess if you can't stop testing, that would be the next "best" thing for Trump to do.....

Well, thankfully (not really), due to the lack of a centralized national plan and effort in combatting covid, each state is reporting its daily numbers publicly and it will be easy for the media to tally up daily stats, even if the administration is putting out a sanitized version.

Of course, now this also probably means we will have Fox News covid stats and MSM covid stats that will only be accepted by the respective partisans. :roll:


----------



## CPAjeff

Catherder said:


> I guess if you can't stop testing, that would be the next "best" thing for Trump to do.....
> 
> Well, thankfully (not really), due to the lack of a centralized national plan and effort in combatting covid, each state is reporting its daily numbers publicly and it will be easy for the media to tally up daily stats, even if the administration is putting out a sanitized version.
> 
> Of course, now this also probably means we will have Fox News covid stats and MSM covid stats that will only be accepted by the respective partisans. :roll:


^^^ This, plus another round of stimulus checks - - - it's all about buying votes for both parties.


----------



## backcountry

Or helping people desperately in need of financial relief? Would be great to see monies specifically targeted to help those who lost insurance the last few months (not a small number) as we know COVID-19 isn't kind to those who have underlying health problems. It's better for everyone if we keep a population healthy during a pandemic.

Per tallies...it will be interesting to see how it affects our lives. I thought it was just going to be hospitalization numbers affected by change but even those have serious implications for pooling resources to slow the spread. Time will tell.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

For critter and Vanilla. Didn't want to further derail the other thread.

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2020/05/22/why-euthanize-600000-pigs/

If Covid takes down the meat packing plants, your dang skippy there's going to be a meat shortage. (edit: think about the upcoming flu season)

Here's the kick in the jimmy, the farmers/ranchers can't just sell the livestock to the general public. All livestock has to be inspected by a USFDA veterinarian before it enters the human food chain. If no inspection has taken place, they can't sell it. The food drug administration veterinarian is........ at the meat processing plant.

It seems stupid, you'd think it be an easy work around.. but not so much amazingly enough. Hence you have 600,000 pigs that never made it to a local market.


----------



## 2full

You can get a beef or a hog to buy in most places. 
The real issue is getting it butchered, cut, and processing done unless you can do it yourself. 
I know a couple of the local processors down here and they both say the are booked up 6+ months out. 
One customer was telling me yesterday he had driven a hog up to Spanish Fork to be processed that morning. He had made the appointment 3 or 4 months ago. That shop is booked up months ahead as well. He goes to Spanish Fork because that shop is the best one in his opinion. And his family raises and processes a lot of pigs.


----------



## Dunkem

Lone_Hunter said:


> For critter and Vanilla. Didn't want to further derail the other thread.
> 
> https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2020/05/22/why-euthanize-600000-pigs/
> 
> If Covid takes down the meat packing plants, your dang skippy there's going to be a meat shortage. (edit: think about the upcoming flu season)
> 
> Here's the kick in the jimmy, the farmers/ranchers can't just sell the livestock to the general public. All livestock has to be inspected by a USFDA veterinarian before it enters the human food chain. If no inspection has taken place, they can't sell it. The food drug administration veterinarian is........ at the meat processing plant.
> 
> It seems stupid, you'd think it be an easy work around.. but not so much amazingly enough. Hence you have 600,000 pigs that never made it to a local market.


Not a meat shortage, but a shortage of meat processers. Meat prices are already high. I also believe that you can get a mobile butcher (mobile slaughter truck) that comes to the place, slaughters the animal, then delivers it to whom you want to process it, it has to be tagged not for sale, farm kill or something like that.No inspection needed. Anyway used to be like that, maybe it has changed.


----------



## middlefork

Dunkem said:


> Not a meat shortage, but a shortage of meat processers. Meat prices are already high. I also believe that you can get a mobile butcher (mobile slaughter truck) that comes to the place, slaughters the animal, then delivers it to whom you want to process it, it has to be tagged not for sale, farm kill or something like that.No inspection needed. Anyway used to be like that, maybe it has changed.


This

Just like processing a deer or elk. They wouldn't process any wild game if it had to be inspected.


----------



## Vanilla

Don’t ever let facts get in the way of a good conspiracy folks.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

It doesn't matter if what I said is true or not. What matters is how many people think the same thing. I'm guessing, ALOT since DWR's website won't even load. I buy my tag at 8 AM every year, and it's never like this. Aside from that, everyones looking to escape covid world.


----------



## backcountry

Or the fact that they pushed all sales online for a system that has always been a little wonky? Its bogged down multiple times since I've been hunting and it's been discussed here on these opening days.

The meat processing situation will likely be a bottleneck again if we spike again during influenza season but "we'll" be fine as a nation (meaning most of us, not all). Worst case is Americans experiences how much meat most of the world eats for 6-12 months.


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> It doesn't matter if what I said is true or not.


Lone, go look in the mirror and repeat that out loud. Keep saying it until the gravity of that statement sinks in. Goodness! Just think about that for a second. It doesn't matter if what I said is true or not. That is the mantra of our current president, so why am I surprised if others are taking it as a motto as well? Heaven help us all.

And this isn't the first time the DWR site has crashed due to overzealous activity. It's happened multiple years before when permits become available.


----------



## Kwalk3

I buy meat very infrequently. Not personally concerned about meat shortages as I have plenty of fish and game meat for myself in the freezer, but I recognize it could be a serious inconvenience for a lot of folks.


----------



## backcountry

There is definitely increased demand for tags. I got in and I'm in the upper 38000 range. I assume that doesn't include those who already successfully purchased their's. That said my place is gaining faster than most people could be checking out so I'm guessing many are quitting.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> Lone, go look in the mirror and repeat that out loud. Keep saying it until the gravity of that statement sinks in. Goodness! Just think about that for a second. It doesn't matter if what I said is true or not. That is the mantra of our current president, so why am I surprised if others are taking it as a motto as well? Heaven help us all.
> 
> And this isn't the first time the DWR site has crashed due to overzealous activity. It's happened multiple years before when permits become available.


What I said wasn't meant as a political statement. Just an assesment, or best guess on what's going on. Truly, it doesn't matter if what I said is true or not, what matters is what people believe and are acting on.

So now I guess I will make a couple of political statements. I can recall the umpteenth million sexual harrasement training in the Air Force.. which can be summarized was _"It doesn't matter what you meant, what matters is how it was interpreted"._ You can extrapolate that, and apply that mentality to our current day if you like......

Meat shortage or no, present or future, it doesn't matter; I'm pretty sure the tags will be selling out faster then they typically would regardless. So.... _"What difference does it make at this point anyway?!"_

Touche_?
_


----------



## backcountry

I'm guessing Lone is correct and I'd wager elk tags sell out today, likely in a few hours at this rate. 

That said, the lemonade is that the site is at least well designed when you get into the queur. Best yet in my opinion. 

Fingers crossed, I've jumped 3500+ spots in 8 minutes.

Edit: The spirit of what Lone said about scarcity is likely true. When people are use to relative abundance being the norm than anything less can trigger pretty serious issues. For a few decades we've gotten use to eating meat whenever we want and that's just historically unusual. Not to mention there have always been people living in malnutrition who will get hit even harder with any level of scarcity. Most people will be fine but it's probably fair to guess people will react if/when it happens.


----------



## PBH

hmmmmm....

*This site can't be reached*
*wildlife.utah.gov* took too long to respond.

I guess I'll just have to wait to try to buy an archery tag. I hope they don't sell out first. If they go through an unlimited number of tags this quickly, then we're all in trouble!!

Good luck to everyone else.

*Update*
the page opened.

You are 97827th in line!

lol. I'll get out of here so that you guys that need to can maybe get in....


----------



## backcountry

PBH said:


> hmmmmm....
> 
> *This site can't be reached*
> *wildlife.utah.gov* took too long to respond.


took me 4 tries. It's over 50k waiting now according to other thread. if it's like I've experienced that will dwindle fast but it sounds like a bottle neck below 10k.


----------



## Kwalk3

Sounds like they were letting people into the queue well before 8:00. Seems pretty lame, if true.


----------



## RandomElk16

Kwalk3 said:


> Sounds like they were letting people into the queue well before 8:00. Seems pretty lame, if true.


They did the same for deer tags last year I believe. It is pretty lame, yes.


----------



## Kwalk3

RandomElk16 said:


> They did the same for deer tags last year I believe. It is pretty lame, yes.


I mean, they either go on sale at 8:00 or not right? Shouldn't be some arbitrary unkown time beforehand.

At least give the information when people will be allowed into the queue.


----------



## backcountry

It's definitely a basic element of fairness to set the rule and follow through on that standard. 

I do wonder how many people got in early just had computer clocks that aren't synced to the same time as server for DWR.


----------



## backcountry

7:45 isn't a syncing error. That's rage inducing (at DWR not hunters).


----------



## backcountry

Back to topic...

Have to say we are even further out now and total fatalities continue to stay lower than total infections would historically predict. I'm still finding hope there. Total daily infections for the US is still bonkers but so it goes.

Utah's numbers are currently stabilizing after a steady trend upwards for weeks. Hospitalizations are staying high but still well below threshold. 

Fingers crossed and breathing a sigh of relief...even if short lived.


----------



## backcountry

Everytime I post something optimistic in this thread I immediately get kicked in the nuts. You'd think I'd learn.

Wife's business had an employee's results come back positive tonight and now another person is exhibiting more severe COVID-19 symptoms (just got tested). This sucks.


----------



## BGD

Backcountry - sounds like you might need to learn to hit enter and then quickly step to the side. I hope your household is able to dodge the bullet, so-to-speak. Regardless, the stress and emotional toll that comes with such circumstances are no picnic. It hasn’t hit quite that close to home for us yet but we are all very weary of the COVID related roller coaster ride.


----------



## goosefreak

Oh hell, I can’t believe I’m even commenting on this ridiculous thread. 

I haven’t done a single thing to prevent myself from getting Covid. Not one. I don’t social distance, I have never worn a mask nor will I ever, I wash my hands as I normally would before coronavirus and I am constantly out and about in public and for the life of me I cannot seem to get the virus !!

NOW, both my in-laws and the kids they still have at Home have all gotten the virus, even my wife’s grandmother who is in her mid-70s have contracted the virus as well as my wife’s uncle who is high risk, overweight, diabetic with a heart problem. Contracted the virus 

Every single one of those people have been social distancing, wearing masks, and washing hands like a typical hypochondriac yet, they all got the virus. I haven’t done anything yet here I am virus free! Or maybe I acquired antibodies back in November? 

Everyone of my in-laws are just fine and dandy, hell they were even out in the yard gardening while they had the virus! 

I’m so grateful they didn’t succumb to that .05% death rate.

Oh, and my neighbor got sick with cold like symptoms and called the doctor and describes symptoms over the phone and the doctor said it sounds like COVID-19 and if she would like they can document it as a positive results even though she didn’t go in to the doctors and they were just talking over the phone! Now imagine how easy that would be to inflate numbers if it was so easy to document a positive result without even going to the doctors office! 

One of my uncles who is LEO down in AZ Told me a couple days ago that the Arizona hotspot hype is made up and they are counting previous positive tests as part of their daily inflation, he even told me that they’re beginning to find people who are being paid to report false numbers, stuff you don’t see in the news type of stuff.

The quickest way to get through this pandemic is to stop talking about it,


----------



## backcountry

Ah, another conspiracy theory. Fun.

My favorite part is the lesson is ignoring it makes it go away NOT "my neighbor" should report the doctor for fraud. That's the quickest way to figure out how accurate these "my neighbor" said claims are.

And an important edit, the current fatality rate data isn't equal to .05% as that would equate to .0005. That's not remotely close to accurate especially since roughly 140k fellow Americans have died.


----------



## goosefreak

backcountry said:


> Ah, another conspiracy theory. Fun.
> 
> My favorite part is the lesson is ignoring it makes it go away NOT "my neighbor" should report the doctor for fraud. That's the quickest way to figure out how accurate these "my neighbor" said claims are.
> 
> And an important edit, the current fatality rate data isn't equal to .05% as that would equate to .0005. That's not remotely close to accurate especially since roughly 140k fellow Americans have died.


That's worldwide you idiot, and my neighbor is the primary president. I'm pretty sure she's not pulling my leg moron. The only conspiracy theorist here is you reading through all your rubbish over the last few weeks..

I have stood all amazed at witnessing the fear that has Terrorize your life. Like do you even talk about hunting and fishing anymore?


----------



## backcountry

uh huh.

More than "pretty sure" I've started a fishing thread and commented multiple times in both hunting and fishing threads. Given your abstract construction of basic math does that count as "anymore"?


----------



## goosefreak

backcountry said:


> uh huh.
> 
> More than "pretty sure" I've started a fishing thread and commented multiple times in both hunting and fishing threads. Given your abstract construction of basic math does that count as "anymore"?


What's it like to be as scared as you are? I've never been


----------



## goosefreak

http://dlvr.it/RbsJdd

Here's one of your hotspots!


----------



## backcountry

BGD said:


> Backcountry - sounds like you might need to learn to hit enter and then quickly step to the side. I hope your household is able to dodge the bullet, so-to-speak. Regardless, the stress and emotional toll that comes with such circumstances are no picnic. It hasn't hit quite that close to home for us yet but we are all very weary of the COVID related roller coaster ride.


Fingers crossed for your household, BGD. Hopefully it doesn't get any closer until we either have a vaccine, it becomes less virulent or at a minimum we understand it's long term impacts and how long natural immunity lasts. The fatigue us real.

Our household is in some unique binds that I don't expect others to take into account. I can't reveal them all but it's a bunch of compounding issues. At a minimum trying to balance social and lifestyle needs of my MIL with protecting her from a disease that would undoubtedly kill her is tiring and imprecise. But you do what you can and hope for the best.

Best of luck and hope you are enjoying the summer days in some fashion.


----------



## backcountry

goosefreak said:


> What's it like to be as scared as you are? I've never been


uh huh.


----------



## goosefreak

http://dlvr.it/RbrzkZ


----------



## goosefreak

http://dlvr.it/RbjgZm


----------



## backcountry

goosefreak said:


> http://dlvr.it/RbsJdd
> 
> Here's one of your hotspots!


Given your posts struggle at math here is the actual Texas epicurve in visual form. Yep, states update data and they dropped a total of "probable" cases but it was outnumbered by a recent backlog dump of confirmed cases by 30%.

Evidently 150+ fellow Americans dying a day in one state isn't enough to warrant medical concern anymore. Good to know.


----------



## backcountry

How's it going Goosefreak? Given the tone and tenor of your posts I'd like to point out you are getting close to that line you claimed you previously regretted in which you started insulting me with pretty nasty language. Thought I'd point that out for your own sense of integrity.


----------



## goosefreak

http://dlvr.it/RbYddl

Labeling you a moron and an idiot is hardly nasty language my friend.

Maybe for a frail old woman like yourself but not in my world


----------



## backcountry

Best of luck holding that line Goosefreak. You weren't able to restrain yourself from escalating to that actual nasty language you used last time. It was your regret after all.

Its looking like you are much younger than I even imagined. The "frail old ladies" I know are pretty cool people I admire actually. If you want to insult me you might want to try some middle aged jokes. Maybe recycle some midlife crisis material? Plenty of inspiration can be found on the interwebs. But as of now you aren't anywhere close to touching my ego or sense of self worth. Best of luck landing a meaningful insult on someone whose been using the internet for decades.


----------



## goosefreak

Don’t you find it ironic that scientist were bio chemical suits to protect themselves from viruses yet they tell you to wear a mask to protect you from the same thing !!

Ha! LOL


----------



## goosefreak

Bulletproof!


----------



## backcountry

How much science do you understand? Do you nderstand the difference in professionals going into a high risk lab and actually handling high concentrations of deadly viruses or into hotspots with known infections vs citizens having to live day to day without knowing who has a virus? If you did, you'd understand the absurdity of your comparison. 

Your second link doesn't help your case.

Just bought a few masks with filters that have third party testing for pretty dang good prevention myself. Not wearing a mask yourself?


----------



## goosefreak

No, I don’t wear a mask! I travel outside of SL county to buy my goods. I refuse to eat at restaurant that require me to wear one as I walk in.


----------



## goosefreak

The numbers put out by the CDC and other health officials have been so up and down and flip floppy, who the hell knows what’s true or false anymore. Who knows what’s accurate any more...people need to snap out of it and get on with life already!

What we are doing is literally try to change the past! Can’t do it! Get over it! Covid is here! It’s been confirmed that it’s not as deadly as they thought, Democrats are trying everything they can to destroy the administration, republican aren’t gonna budge, neither will dems, Trumps your Pres and he’s gonna get reelected, yadda yadda, the world keeps spinning. Start living life!!! It’s been great for me!


----------



## backcountry

Your choice but sorry to hear it. Mask wearing, social distancing, and hand washing are the simplest ways to keep our economy running and keep people healthy. But at the end of the day you get to decide to shop elsewhere and more power to you. Best of luck.


----------



## backcountry

Bingo!

Mind control was on my card. Been a while since I got a square.


----------



## goosefreak

backcountry said:


> Mind control was on my card. Been a while since I got a square.


 It's evident that it's worked on you, I mean have you been proofreading all your comments or somebody else writing them for you?


----------



## backcountry

Your attacks are oddly timed, Goosefreak. If you had been reading my posts you'll notice:

1) I'm optimistic and hopeful about the fatality rate and infection rate diverging more than the March/April trends and figures.

2) I actually criticized the hyperbolic prediction of dozens of "NYs" about to happen and what I considered an unhealthy response by liberal pundits not to rejoice at least a bit in fewer Americans dying daily despite case numbers.

3) I actually did a week long RV trip and have been fishing locally and just bought an elk tag. 

Your attacks are just odd in that context.

PS....we aren't "literally" trying to change the past. Those of us with the scientific literacy to understand the disease are trying to impact future case numbers to prevent undue death and suffering in the weeks and months to come. The past is the past. And we are trying to focus on health and economy at the same time as they aren't mutually exclusive; they are interdependent.


----------



## goosefreak

backcountry said:


> Your attacks are oddly timed, Goosefreak. If you had been reading my posts you'll notice:
> 
> 1) I'm optimistic and hopeful about the fatality rate and infection rate diverging more than the March/April trends and figures.
> 
> 2) I actually criticized the hyperbolic prediction of dozens of "NYs" about to happen and what ai considered an unhealthy response by liberal pundits not to rejoice at least a bit in fewer Americans dying daily despite case numbers.
> 
> 3) I actually did a week long RV trip and have been fishing locally and just bought an elk tag.
> 
> Your attacks are just odd in that context.


I admit, I don't read even a fraction of what you post but, I did notice a time or two that you started coming to your senses


----------



## backcountry

Good to know, Goosefreak. Good to know.

I'll sleep better tonight knowing I crossed that off the list of concerns that have been terrorizing me.


----------



## Catherder

Yep, another podcast link. ;-)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-does-a-pandemic-start-to-erode-civil-liberties/

This one talks about the legality of mask and public health law (sorry, anti maskers), an update on aerosolized particles causing disease, and some good news on a vaccine trial.


----------



## backcountry

Thx, heading up to fish and needed some thing new to listen to. (I always seem to need 2-3 different podcast apps sadly. )

Anybody been buying appliances? Seems like we are seeing some of the shortages people predicted. I do buy such things very often but the items I had researched where all out of stock. And several stores were 100% out of all items in the category we were buying. Maybe just a byproduct of tariff wars or standard seasonal rush? Definitely was use to buying what we wanted, when we wanted for years whatever the case may be.


----------



## backcountry

Interesting visualization of case loads per state through time. Gives a good perspective on our rollercoaster ride as a state.

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/?fbclid=IwAR19XzzCaYXZ7LCwtn2TtB798URJpqxj02dUhQGPqkmEEF0nyGktYMw9l8c


----------



## Lone_Hunter

backcountry said:


> Interesting visualization of case loads per state through time. Gives a good perspective on our rollercoaster ride as a state.
> 
> https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/?fbclid=IwAR19XzzCaYXZ7LCwtn2TtB798URJpqxj02dUhQGPqkmEEF0nyGktYMw9l8c


Amazing how fast we start bumping up the chart, 3 to 4 days after May 24th. Gee, I wonder If memorial day had anything to do with that :roll:

On a related note..... was there some Rodeo a few days ago? Saw a picture of that yesterday. You'd swear it was taken last year, but no it was recent.. no distancing, no masks. Not a single one. People packed in the bleachers like sardines. Guaranteed there was at least a few carriers in the packed stands. Veritable breeding ground for covid. Expect a spike soon due to a metric assload of stupid idiots.

And it highlights one reason i hate people. Everyone is special, and don't think it will ever happen to them. Rules, regulations, caution, what have you, apply to other people, never to themselves. I've actually come to enjoy seeing people get their bubbles burst. Terrible, and bitter person? Sure I'll own that. Wish I lived in Alaska, more country, less idiots running around.


----------



## backcountry

I definitely don't hate people nor find pleasure when some of these "anti" people unshockingly experience severe or fatal outcomes of COVID-19. I actually still find sympathy for fellow citizens suffering even if they acted foolishly. 

Our nation has a strong history of individualism which has benefits. But like anything, when taken too far to the extremes can be harmful. We've created a polarization that makes us believe (gross generalization) that ideological purity is paramount even at moment like this. We are seeing on so many levels what happens when we weaponize just about every facet of politics.

Wether we like it or not we are interdependent as citizens. We can go it alone on many things but not during a pandemic. As was just evidenced here I will choose to respect individuals using their privileges and liberties but it has severe implications for society. And it has dire implications for my household as well. I just have close to zero control over that outcome so I've largely come to peace with it.


----------



## DallanC

Lone_Hunter said:


> Amazing how fast we start bumping up the chart, 3 to 4 days after May 24th. Gee, I wonder If memorial day had anything to do with that :roll:


Or the protests.



> And it highlights one reason i hate people. Everyone is special, and don't think it will ever happen to them. Rules, regulations, caution, what have you, apply to other people, never to themselves. I've actually come to enjoy seeing people get their bubbles burst. Terrible, and bitter person? Sure I'll own that. Wish I lived in Alaska, more country, less idiots running around.


On our Alaska trip this past fall, we were nearly T-boned while stopped at a traffic light. Truck coming from my left towards us had two very drunk guys traveling towards us at a high rate of speed. LUCKLY (and amazingly), they actually went off the road just before the intersection and tipped the truck over. It literally came to a stop less than 40 yards from us where the two roads come meet at the edge of the light pole.

Had the driver not curved off the road when he did, he would have curved into us and hit us, with a better than average chance of killing me probably, and maybe my son sitting passenger behind me (we were in tiny rental car, and they were in a full size truck going 40-45mph).

The two guys climbed out, then one climbed back in for his 32oz drink container, then they took off running as best they could into the woods. I downplayed it to the family as funny... but I knew we dodged a literal bullet.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Very few things bother me worse than impaired drivers. Very few things.


----------



## backcountry

I've cut out friendships because of it. I'd be lying if I didn't admit I've driven impaired after my community rationalized it for years. Even if that is past tense I'm still embarrassed and ashamed of it. But I watched multiple friends continue to do so after getting caught or having close calls. Some people have wake up calls while others justify and reinforce. I learned a long time ago that surrounding myself with people who don't learn isn't a trait I want to learn from. We are who we surround ourselves with.

There is a culture of "I'm exempt because I'm uniquely qualified" in just about every facet of life. Some are clearly more dangerous than others. We are all trying to navigate this but watching people rebel against the very simple and functional measures that protect human life and our economy is definitely disheartening. 

To Alaska...that place has its own type of scary. I love it but it's not a panacea for individualism. I've spent about 4 months of my life there and I'll go back but only in small doses (is weeks or maybe months). I'm at a point in life that I just don't buy into much of a grass is greener mantra.

PS....Dallan's protest claim ignores key dates. We started spiking weeks before the protests would have influenced infection rates even if I think that influence has been downplayed.


----------



## backcountry

Lone,

Here is a well resourced article about how Utah handled the epidemic so far. Those spike in cases align well with some of the questionable decisions the state and political commission made.

Once again Dr Dunn comes out looking like a consummate healthcare professional. Seems like at every step she advocates properly according to her job and with our health in mind. And does so in the face of immense political pressure to capitulate.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...side-to-control-reopening-then-cases-exploded


----------



## holly77

all be fine, want to believe in it I had depression when quarantine has started. I stayed at home every day, was afraid to walk into shops and talk with people. My mom who was carried about me ordered antidepressants on this website https://worldpharm365.com/product/etizolam-etilaam-etizest-2mg-buy-with-bitcoin/. She really liked this website, because it is easy and comfy, with a bunch of interesting and useful info. These guys provide quality client - support and loyalty points. They really helped me in my situation and I am really thankful for it. So if you have time, you can check out this site for more info!


----------



## backcountry

Anybody else relieved to see numbers remaining well below our recent peak? Plus it looks like we are likely seeing the positive impact of mask mandates playing out in these reduced case loads.

National infections still suck but we have yet to see the a spike in fatalities like we saw in the spring. I don't know if anyone can confidently say why that trend is different but I'm fine with less is better. It's obvious national fatality rates will still climb and we have no clue how high but this lag is much longer and at a minimum bought us more time.

Stay safe out there folks and hope we see infections decrease and individual mitigation continue to rise so we can all work and interact more confidently.


----------



## backcountry

It looks like the caseload from the last two days is the lowest series in a row since June 21st. Looking like we experienced a peak (not necessarily "the peak") after July 4th festivities and are now seeing a noticeable decreasing trend line. 

My old self in early May would have never believed I would be relieved to see "only" 431 positive cases but here I am breathing a sigh of relief. Its especially good news since Iron County hasn't experienced meaningful growth in cases in weeks. 

Its looking more like we can likely manage this thing during the summer if we all do the basics of wearing a mask, washing our hands, and trying to socially distance.


----------



## johnnycake

Well, the 'rona has struck the Cakes household. Mrs. Cake got a bit sniffly Sunday so she went and got a test, and the positive came back this morning. So I'm sitting in the truck with the cupcakes waiting to get our brains stabbed to confirm what we already suspect. 

Thankfully the symptoms in our family have all been very mild and hopefully they stay that way. 

I'm just pissed because now I have to cancel my fun blast and cast blacktail, halibut, and ptarmigan trip I was going to do in 2 weeks.


----------



## Brettski7

johnnycake said:


> Well, the 'rona has struck the Cakes household. Mrs. Cake got a bit sniffly Sunday so she went and got a test, and the positive came back this morning. So I'm sitting in the truck with the cupcakes waiting to get our brains stabbed to confirm what we already suspect.
> 
> Thankfully the symptoms in our family have all been very mild and hopefully they stay that way.
> 
> I'm just pissed because now I have to cancel my fun blast and cast blacktail, halibut, and ptarmigan trip I was going to do in 2 weeks.


Still possible you may not have to cancel. No telling how long she (and possibly the rest of you) has had it so it's possible you could test negative before then. Or maybe you'll test negative and just leave everyone else home lol.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

Fingers crossed for you Johnnycake. Hopefully it stays mild.

Canceling out of an abundance of caution or are they recommending longer than 2 weeks of self-quarantine? I ask as when my wife's co-workers got it the doctors had much milder protocols than published elsewhere.


----------



## RandomElk16

johnnycake said:


> Well, the 'rona has struck the Cakes household. Mrs. Cake got a bit sniffly Sunday so she went and got a test, and the positive came back this morning. So I'm sitting in the truck with the cupcakes waiting to get our brains stabbed to confirm what we already suspect.
> 
> Thankfully the symptoms in our family have all been very mild and hopefully they stay that way.
> 
> I'm just pissed because now I have to cancel my fun blast and cast blacktail, halibut, and ptarmigan trip I was going to do in 2 weeks.


Hope the Cakes family is all ok. I will be thinking of you guys!

Good news is after your recovery you should have antibodies for somewhere between a day and your life depending on the scientist you talk to that day. So you have a window to not worry.


----------



## CPAjeff

johnnycake said:


> Well, the 'rona has struck the Cakes household. Mrs. Cake got a bit sniffly Sunday so she went and got a test, and the positive came back this morning. So I'm sitting in the truck with the cupcakes waiting to get our brains stabbed to confirm what we already suspect.
> 
> Thankfully the symptoms in our family have all been very mild and hopefully they stay that way.
> 
> I'm just pissed because now I have to cancel my fun blast and cast blacktail, halibut, and ptarmigan trip I was going to do in 2 weeks.


Yikes man, that sucks - I hope all the symptoms in your family stay mild. I had the pleasure of getting my brain stabbed last week - it's an experience I could live without!


----------



## 2full

Sorry to hear that Johnny.....
I hope all turns out well. 
I not sure how I could handle quarantine......
Good Luck.


----------



## johnnycake

Brettski7 said:


> Still possible you may not have to cancel. No telling how long she (and possibly the rest of you) has had it so it's possible you could test negative before then. Or maybe you'll test negative and just leave everyone else home lol.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Given that the current protocol is to be symptom free for at least 10 days and have 2 negative test results taken at least 24hrs apart, and my buddy was supposed to fly in for that trip on 8/13 that's just cutting it way too close to have him keep his tickets and roll the dice. We'll go another time.

I'm sure we're gonna be just fine, but it's gonna be a real head trip for the next bit.


----------



## Packout

I imagine 3Arabians thinks a deep, interior nasal swab is about half payment for the antics johnny has pulled on him.

Hope you all recover well. My biggest fear with the disease isn't dying- I just don't want to lose my sense of smell or taste.


----------



## johnnycake

Packout said:


> I imagine 3Arabians thinks a deep, interior nasal swab is about half payment for the antics johnny has pulled on him.
> 
> Hope you all recover well. My biggest fear with the disease isn't dying- I just don't want to lose my sense of smell or taste.


Well jokes on him! I love getting deeply probed by strangers!


----------



## Catherder

Sorry to hear about the corona. Best wishes to you and the cakes for a quick recovery. 

How do you think your wife was exposed to the virus?


----------



## johnnycake

Catherder said:


> Sorry to hear about the corona. Best wishes to you and the cakes for a quick recovery.
> 
> How do you think your wife was exposed to the virus?


My money is on one of our tenants who works at a seafood processing facility that reported a big outbreak last week. We of course didn't find out about it until it was in the paper, super considerate of that tenant...


----------



## 3arabians

Packout said:


> I imagine 3Arabians thinks a deep, interior nasal swab is about half payment for the antics johnny has pulled on him.
> 
> Hope you all recover well. My biggest fear with the disease isn't dying- I just don't want to lose my sense of smell or taste.


Haha! He needs about 10 pokes in the brain for me to feel like I received full payment from this prankster. One is better than nothing I guess.

All joking aside, best wishes to you and your family Johnny. Get through it and get back to living the Alaskan dream and tormenting us lowly Utahns with your adventures as quickly as possible my friend.


----------



## backcountry

This sounds like a story I may, or may not, want to hear.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> This sounds like a story I may, or may not, want to hear.


johnnycake is a big jerk. The end.


----------



## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> johnnycake is a big jerk. The end.


----------



## middlefork

backcountry said:


> This sounds like a story I may, or may not, want to hear.


One of the all time best pranks on the UWN!


----------



## Airborne

I am glad I'm not the only one on here with the ole Rona'. Wonder why I have been posting a bunch here lately-->well, that's what ya do when you're trapped in your basement on quarantine! I lost my sense of taste on 7/11, had a sinus cold and headache for a few days-nothing bad and no fever or aches. I decided to get checked and to keep away from others. Test came back 5 days later--positive! I would recommend to anyone out there getting tested to go through your primary care physician and not the Test Utah website. My wife got tested through her Dr/instacare and she got her results back in a day compared to my 5 days. She was negative along with the kids.

Anywho--my sense of taste is back, my symptoms were very mild and I have not had any other symptoms for more than a week so I figure this Friday I will be able to rejoin the living. For the record I followed the CDC guidelines-> wore my mask in public, washed hands all the time, and really didn't go anywhere or do much and I still got it! I am thankful it wasn't bad at all and I never got what I would consider 'sick'. It helps I'm in ok shape and not too old (my age starts with a '4' so I'm getting there. Good luck out there folks--crazy times we live in


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Airborne said:


> For the record I followed the CDC guidelines-> wore my mask in public, washed hands all the time, and really didn't go anywhere or do much and I still got it!


As my wife likes to say, "the noose is getting tighter". The problem i think, is that no matter how careful you are, it's the poor decisions by those around you (namely coworkers) that will get you sick.

We've been extremely careful. This may sound crazy to some people here:
- *All *purchases online, except for a car battery, only because I had no choice, and I went when they first opened in the morning, on a weekday.
- When i get gas, i'll go at O'dark 30, to the gas station out on the edge of town, just to avoid people. I haven't seen anyone at the pump in months.
- I'll walk across the street to avoid so much as a kid, when walking the dog or the daughter.
- haven't been to a sunday family dinner since ... march? April? whenever it was when this started.
- when i go scouting, i'll bushwack, just to avoid the trails and trailhead where people congregate. If I am on a trail, i'll move 10 feet off the trail if i see someone coming.
- I've given up road camping. Full on backpacking now, and i'll set up my camp far away from any road or trail.
- we've given up trailer camping in part because the mountains full, but also to avoid the RV dump and having to refill propane.
- I'll keep my window up when passing trucks in the mountains now. Gives me an excuse to keep going and not be rude by not talking.
- (Edit) Recently figured out how to align my own broadheads and cut my own arrows rather then go to Jakes Archery and expose myself.

I'm sure I can add to this list of extreme "avoid people at all costs" mentality i've been on. Granted I come by it naturally. If people go one direction, I always go the other. Anyway, all of this means little when your or your wifes coworkers make poor decisions. They do something stupid, (I can think of 3 examples off the top of my head) they catch the kung flu, bring it to work, and now you get it.

In the chairforce , at least in my day, we had a saying: "It's hard to soar like an eagle when your surrounded by turkey's."


----------



## RandomElk16

Lone_Hunter said:


> - (Edit) Recently figured out how to align my own broadheads and cut my own arrows rather then go to Jakes Archery and expose myself.


You have been isolated so long, you didn't even know Jake's isn't in business anymore.

That's a testament to your commitment lol. Love it.


----------



## backcountry

That's definitely commitment. 

We've opened up our circle some but largely in a socially distanced way. I can count on one hand how many stores we've been in during the last 4 months, but most of those have been in July. We do curbside or have friends who are lower risk households help. Sadly we have been online shopping more than normal.

We are doing backyard dinners with friends but we stay 6-8 feet apart, use disposable utensils/plates, and disinfect surfaces afterwards. Sounds like fomites really aren't a major form of transmission but it provides comfort to my wife.

We wear masks anytime we could get closer than 6 feet from people. We bought a Utah brand that has a comfortable design and filters that have an ASTM rating that's pretty good; on top of it they are affordable. 

Even our RV trip was amazingly isolated. We entered 2 businesses and one was Cruise America which is basically a warehouse on the inside and our liasion there was masked up and great (corporate rep had evidently never had someone call to give a shout-out to such an employee). We never stayed in the crowded NP campgrounds and the FS accessible one was perfectly distanced. It did open us up to some risk but it was worth it as it was literally the last vacation of my MIL's life; she can barely walk 3 feet now and is getting closer to wheelchair/bed bound everyday. She got to see grizzlies for the first time in her life, sit by a picture window and watch pelicans float by on a section of the Snake we had to ourselves, and just enjoy life outside our house/yard. 

We have several friends who are struggling with the pandemic and we are debating quaran-teaming with them starting this autumn. We are bringing in Home Care soon as ALS/FTD has entered a phase we can't manage on our own. We just have to accept a higher level of risk because of balancing our own safety (high probability of hurting my back from a dozen lifts a day) plus all the other daily needs of an immobile family member. We are hoping to support our friends and be more social this winter as 6-9 months of isolation would be pretty tough. It's going to take a lot of honest communication and accountability but we have some great friends. 

Best of luck to others. I think we are all going to have to be challenged this coming autumn/winter and have to get creative.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

RandomElk16 said:


> You have been isolated so long, you didn't even know Jake's isn't in business anymore.
> 
> That's a testament to your commitment lol. Love it.


 Seriously? I had no idea. (Edit: I think your yanking my chain, their website and facebook page are still up.)
edit 2: And their phone is still connected, got the usual press a number recording for the pro shop.

As to commitment, hey I don't half ass anything I set my mind to. I'm either all in, or I don't do it at all. -()/-
edit3: I can't remember when the last time we ate out was. When I get the craving for a burger and fries, or a pizza, we make my own.


----------



## johnnycake

It's official, I can't even fail a test when I want to. We're all aboard the 'Ronacoaster in the Cakes' household now. At least so far we've got only very mild symptoms, feels somewhere between really bad seasonal allergies and a mild cold. 

I wonder how much we could charge to rent ourselves out for 'Rona parties that those morons seems to like holding...(just kidding, we aren't even letting the kids play in the yard)


----------



## Vanilla

Send plasma. 

I'm setting up a PO Box though. I don't need you knowing my address!


----------



## johnnycake

I figure once we come out the other side we should be able to charge a premium for our plasma. Gotta pay for all my hunting and fishing pursuits somehow


----------



## backcountry

That sucks Johnnycake. I hope it stays mild with no side effects. 

Definitely money to be made in donating plasma if y'all have a for profit blood bank by y'all. Might as well take some of that cash from these companies that will likely make bank off of convalescent treatments.

The family that donates together, hunts together.


----------



## backcountry

Different note and intentional double entendre....did anyone have "demon sperm" on their 2020 Bingo Card? If so, probably time to check in with your doctor but you can claim your prize at the door on the way out. No need to show us the bingo card, we'll just trust you. 

I'm not sure who is writing the script for this year's season of Life on Planet Earth but I think it's fair to say it's the weirdest yet. I hope it's a guest writer and director because I think we need a break sometime in 2021.


----------



## RandomElk16

Lone_Hunter said:


> edit 2: And their phone is still connected, got the usual press a number recording for the pro shop.


Press the pro shop number then come back


----------



## backcountry

Anybody see this? What is the point of contact tracing at schools if they aren't going to isolate until symptoms manifest? How does that align well with our knowledge about asymptomatic spread?

Glad I don't have a school age child as this seems like a bit of an over adjustment.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/education/2020/07/30/utah-students-can-still


----------



## DallanC

johnnycake said:


> It's official, I can't even fail a test when I want to. We're all aboard the 'Ronacoaster in the Cakes' household now. At least so far we've got only very mild symptoms, feels somewhere between really bad seasonal allergies and a mild cold.
> 
> I wonder how much we could charge to rent ourselves out for 'Rona parties that those morons seems to like holding...(just kidding, we aren't even letting the kids play in the yard)


Hey if I'm going to catch 'rona, I want the strain that only manifests as a mild cold or allergies 

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

johnnycake said:


> It's official, I can't even fail a test when I want to. We're all aboard the 'Ronacoaster in the Cakes' household now. *At least so far we've got only very mild symptoms, feels somewhere between really bad seasonal allergies and a mild cold. *
> 
> I wonder how much we could charge to rent ourselves out for 'Rona parties that those morons seems to like holding...(just kidding, we aren't even letting the kids play in the yard)


Well I hope it stays mild, and you don't lose your sense of taste like I've heard people will.

Good luck to you and yours.

You might find this funny, though he cusses a bit (ok, a lot), so careful around the kids.


----------



## johnnycake

DallanC said:


> Hey if I'm going to catch 'rona, I want the strain that only manifests as a mild cold or allergies
> 
> -DallanC


You play your cards right and I might be able to send you a CareRona package 

Mrs. Cake lost her sense of taste and smell a few days ago, but so far I haven't really. Whenever I get sick with anything my sense of smell goes funny; there's a specific "sick smell" I get where I can still smell things normally but there's this overtone of sickly/sweet weirdness to it. Yep, holds true for the 'rona too.

I might have to steal his use of 'koof' though.


----------



## backcountry

Did everyone recover okay, Johnnycake?

On a bright note....Utah has experienced a month of declining caseloads. That is such a relief. Every indicator but test positive rate appears to have decreased since mid-July.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Well, this isn't a good sign.
https://www.fox13now.com/news/local...first-week-of-school-due-to-covid-19-exposure


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Did everyone recover okay, Johnnycake?
> 
> On a bright note....Utah has experienced a month of declining caseloads. That is such a relief. Every indicator but test positive rate appears to have decreased since mid-July.


Thankfully yes. For a week though it was really ugly for my wife and I. We got our health clearances from the state on 8/9, and I was climbing mountains (albeit slower than normal) and killing ptarmigan on 8/14.


----------



## backcountry

johnnycake said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Did everyone recover okay, Johnnycake?
> 
> On a bright note....Utah has experienced a month of declining caseloads. That is such a relief. Every indicator but test positive rate appears to have decreased since mid-July.
> 
> 
> 
> Thankfully yes. For a week though it was really ugly for my wife and I. We got our health clearances from the state on 8/9, and I was climbing mountains (albeit slower than normal) and killing ptarmigan on 8/14.
Click to expand...

Glad y'all are better but sorry to hear it got ugly. Hope y'all keep healing.

I just looked up Alaska's upland season and I may have to come camp on your property after all. That's amazing how many months you can hunt grouse and ptarmigan.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Glad y'all are better but sorry to hear it got ugly. Hope y'all keep healing.
> 
> I just looked up Alaska's upland season and I may have to come camp on your property after all. That's amazing how many months you can hunt grouse and ptarmigan.


The upland hunting here is mind blowing. To be able to go hunt somewhere that the daily bag limit for grouse is +15 birds---and then be able to actually limit out on a morning hunt--still surreal to me. To say nothing of the ptarmigan.

I have a few places that in a single day with minimal driving to transition between spots you can shoot three species of ptarmigan, three species of grouse, and snowshoe hares (plus ducks geese cranes and snipe in September).


----------



## Airborne

johnnycake said:


> The upland hunting here is mind blowing. To be able to go hunt somewhere that the daily bag limit for grouse is +15 birds---and then be able to actually limit out on a morning hunt--still surreal to me. To say nothing of the ptarmigan.
> 
> I have a few places that in a single day with minimal driving to transition between spots you can shoot three species of ptarmigan, three species of grouse, and snowshoe hares (plus ducks geese cranes and snipe in September).


I hate you soooo much! :grin::grin:

I am truly making the trip north next year to bag willow and rock! I'm gonna lean on ya for that Johnny!

Side note I am fully recovered from the Rona' and have my sense of taste and all is well with the world so far. On the plus side I started donating plasma and am raking in a cool $100 per visit so that's a nice side effect of having the Rona! With the plasma treatments talked about in the news I may be flexing on these guys to up my payment! I got the Golden Blood!


----------



## backcountry

Our household finally gets to breathe a sigh of relief. Balancing quality of life and safety in the time of Covid-19 isn't an easy task for high risk households. But we can look back knowing we navigated it as well as can be hoped. Having a love one die peacefully and pain free while holding their child's hand is a gift. We will forever be grateful knowing that fact and that we managed to avoid her dying alone in a hospital. 

My sincere thoughts go out to those households still working hard to protect their loved ones. You aren't alone and you have solidarity with millions of us who are still trying to protect ourselves and community at large. The road ahead is likely going to be difficult but I can honestly say there is real solace in knowing you did your best.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Our household finally gets to breathe a sigh of relief. Balancing quality of life and safety in the time of Covid-19 isn't an easy task for high risk households. But we can look back knowing we navigated it as well as can be hoped. Having a love one die peacefully and pain free while holding their child's hand is a gift. We will forever be grateful knowing that fact and that we managed to avoid her dying alone in a hospital.
> 
> My sincere thoughts go out to those households still working hard to protect their loved ones. You aren't alone and you have solidarity with millions of us who are still trying to protect ourselves and community at large. The road ahead is likely going to be difficult but I can honestly say there is real solace in knowing you did your best.


Sorry to hear about her passing, although it sounds like things went as you hoped for. Loss of loved ones will always bring out unexpected emotions. My condolences.

Although this was recently hashed over on that rapidly spiraling "at it again" thread, this link talks about vaccine safety and efficacy in a helpful manner. Maybe it will be of interest to others.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-know-when-you-can-trust-a-covid-19-vaccine/


----------



## BGD

My most sincere condolences Backcountry. Watching someone suffer through ALS is tough. It is not a kind disease. I hope amongst the difficulties their were some special moments as well.


----------



## Jedidiah

The passing of those who did their best on earth is hardest for those those who are left to the struggle. Johnny and backcountry despite the arguments we respect you both.


----------



## middlefork

There is never a "good" time.

Condolences.


----------



## alaska

Lone_Hunter said:


> Well, this isn't a good sign.
> https://www.fox13now.com/news/local...first-week-of-school-due-to-covid-19-exposure


Not a good sign at all


----------



## olibooger




----------



## backcountry

Thanks for all the kindness, folks. Grateful we kept her safe and happy. 

I hope folks are staying safe and healthy. This new spike is pretty epic. My wife and I went from the frying pan to the fryer when it came to high risk; we are going to have a Coronial this winter, our first child, and the science about pregnant women and Covid-19 isn't pleasant. We are trying to enjoy physically distanced outdoor time with friends as long as possible before the winter makes it uncomfortable.

Looking forward to late spring like never before. This winter is going to be tough on so many of us but we'll get through it.


----------



## Ray

backcountry said:


> Thanks for all the kindness, folks. Grateful we kept her safe and happy.
> 
> I hope folks are staying safe and healthy. This new spike is pretty epic. My wife and I went from the frying pan to the fryer when it came to high risk; we are going to have a Coronial this winter, our first child, and the science about pregnant women and Covid-19 isn't pleasant. We are trying to enjoy physically distanced outdoor time with friends as long as possible before the winter makes it uncomfortable.
> 
> Looking forward to late spring like never before. This winter is going to be tough on so many of us but we'll get through it.


Congratulations on the expected grandchild. Do you have any literature or have a good source you can point me to on the issues with covid and pregnancy? I myself just found out my wife is expecting and want to make sure she and the baby are safe.


----------



## backcountry

Actually just our first child (not grandchild) we waited because of a myriad of reasons. 

I'll ask my wife for the reports she found but from what I've seen in data and analysis pregnant women are more likely to be hospitalized, need ICU treatment and specifically need mechanical ventilation more. Luckily there isn't evidence of higher mortality. A lot of that makes sense as women's lungs are physically compromised in the final trimester because of how the pregnancy compresses organs. I'm guessing it's less to do with the specifics of Covid-19 and more to do with the way respiratory viruses affect pregnant women in general. 

We didn't have the easiest journey to pregnancy so we will be continuing down the high risk protocol road. Not to mention we are both older and "geriatric" (woman 35+)pregnancies are higher risk in general. We aren't taking any chances.

Congratulations to y'all as well! Best of luck and wishing y'all a safe and happy pregnancy.


----------



## Ray

backcountry said:


> Actually just our first child (not grandchild) we waited because of a myriad of reasons.
> 
> I'll ask my wife for the reports she found but from what I've seen in data and analysis pregnant women are more likely to be hospitalized, need ICU treatment and specifically need mechanical ventilation more. Luckily there isn't evidence of higher mortality. A lot of that makes sense as women's lungs are physically compromised in the final trimester because of how the pregnancy compresses organs. I'm guessing it's less to do with the specifics of Covid-19 and more to do with the way respiratory viruses affect pregnant women in general.
> 
> We didn't have the easiest journey to pregnancy so we will be continuing down the high risk protocol road. Not to mention we are both older and "geriatric" (woman 35+)pregnancies are higher risk in general. We aren't taking any chances.
> 
> Congratulations to y'all as well! Best of luck and wishing y'all a safe and happy pregnancy.


Sorry, read that wrong, I thought you were saying your first child is having a kid, not that you're having your first child. Ain't nothing wrong with waiting man, my 4th kid will be here when I'm 34 which I think is still very young. That said, I ain't doing 5! Scheduling a vasectomy for right after the delivery.

Congratulations on your first kid man!


----------



## middlefork

Congrats to both of you.

My first great grand daughter is due within the next 2 weeks. I have to admit I've been a little worried about it.


----------



## Ray

middlefork said:


> Congrats to both of you.
> 
> My first great grand daughter is due within the next 2 weeks. I have to admit I've been a little worried about it.


That's amazing, congratulations, good sir.

I'm sure the baby and your granddaughter will be fine, I have a one year old, hasn't had any issues and neither has my wife.

From what I've read, pregnant women are low risk, for the most part. The main concern from what a I've gathered is how covid might effect the baby long term, if the mother were to contract it while pregnant, they really just don't know. With your great granddaughter only having a couple weeks left, I'd say she's pretty well home safe.


----------



## backcountry

Thanks, Middlefork, and congratulations to you as well. That's an exciting milestone.

I'm guessing your great granddaughter and grand daughter should be just fine if the due date is in 2 weeks. Many of our concerns are with premature birth, associated with geriatric pregnancies and Covid-19, but that won't be an issue this close to your grand daughters estimated due date.

Not to mention, she'll be giving birth before the overlap of regular flu season and Covid-19 and most hospitals are currently doing fine. I'm remaining hopeful that our local hospital will continue to let fathers be part of the visit this winter. And our healthcare giver has already had the virus so I'm hopeful she'll maintain immunity through our due date.

Here is the basic CDC link, it's been updated through the summer, that I've pulled from.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6925a1.htm

Similar guidance and initial interpretations from Mayo and Science magazine:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/why-pregnant-women-face-special-risks-covid-19

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases.../in-depth/pregnancy-and-covid-19/art-20482639

Data isn't great but it's also not horrible. My wife had a pdf report from this summer but she hasn't forwarded it yet. I'll post it if she gets around to sharing the file. I'm not too worried but we are planning to be pretty isolated from December onward. We are already talking with my parents about how they can visit this spring while protecting themselves and us. But we'll find a way for them to spend time with their grandkid.


----------



## backcountry

Johnnycake,

Did you get your sense of smell and taste back?

I know someone who experienced a week of mild flu like symptoms but their taste and smell hasn't returned 6 weeks later.

Inquiring minds.


----------



## caddis8

backcountry said:


> Johnnycake,
> 
> Did you get your sense of smell and taste back?
> 
> I know someone who experienced a week of mild flu like symptoms but their taste and smell hasn't returned 6 weeks later.
> 
> Inquiring minds.


Taste and Smell are the worst things to lose. I had COVID last week. I felt the sniffles the week before. It was windy so I figured it was allergies. Never had a fever. A week ago Monday, I woke up and my wife said the dog pillow stinks of barf from the heat stroke incident. I couldn't smell it. I thought "That's odd." So I went and ate a coconut/chocolate covered almond- strong taste. Numb mouth. Crap. Tested and was positive.

Taste is coming back, but smell is not back yet. That's both good and bad. Good in that I can't smell myself. Bad, I can't smell food well. I have be 2" away and smell hard for a hint of smell.

My kids thought it was great so we recorded me drinking/eating the nastiest concoctions. They thought it was awesome.


----------



## Critter

I would hate to loose my sense of smell. I had sinus surgery 10 years ago and the first thing that the doctor usually ask is if I can still smell things. For some reason I am one of the few that can still smell after that type of surgery. I have a niece who had a brain tumor and by the time they were done with her she lost here sense of smell. 

I guess it is like any of our other senses, you never know how much you appreciate it until you no longer have it. 

In some instances as you mentioned it might be a blessing but I would rather have those real bad smells like skunks, dead stuff, and other things just so that I can smell the fantastic things like bread baking, a turkey in the oven, and a lot of other things.

Hope everything comes back for you.


----------



## DallanC

Congrats to caddis8 for joining the X-Men with his new mutation and super powers 

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> Congrats to caddis8 for joining the X-Men with his new mutation and super powers
> 
> -DallanC


Maybe, instead of zombies, like Oli was suggesting, we will all become X-men? That doesn't sound quite as bad. 

Is Bill Gates the real Professor Xavier?


----------



## backcountry

Bunch of X-Men running around without a sense of smell. Though it would probably be more like the plot of The Boys than X-Men.

It's either Gates or Fauci. Spawn of evil I tell you.


Companies still paying premium for plasma from those who had Covid-19?


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Johnnycake,
> 
> Did you get your sense of smell and taste back?
> 
> I know someone who experienced a week of mild flu like symptoms but their taste and smell hasn't returned 6 weeks later.
> 
> Inquiring minds.


I never lost my sense of taste or smell, but my wife did. Hers came back after a couple weeks, but now she realizes that Pepsi tastes disgusting, (like I've been trying to convince her of for years).

Our energy levels are still pretty low, but other than that things are pretty good


----------



## backcountry

Thx for clarifying. Glad it came back for her but sorry to hear about fatigue. "Post-viral" responses can be a real drag.

And besides being an official X-Men your wife now understands the basics of flavor 😁. 

Different note....Hello Tushy gets really cold around mid-November in this old house. If you see reports about the first ever case of a frost bit sphincter then you'll know I made it to internet famous.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Thx for clarifying. Glad it came back for her but sorry to hear about fatigue. "Post-viral" responses can be a real drag.
> 
> And besides being an official X-Men your wife now understands the basics of flavor &#128513;.
> 
> Different note....Hello Tushy gets really cold around mid-November in this old house. If you see reports about the first ever case of a frost bit sphincter then you'll know I made it to internet famous.


Your fault for being cheap and not going for the Tushy Spa!


----------



## caddis8

DallanC said:


> Congrats to caddis8 for joining the X-Men with his new mutation and super powers
> 
> -DallanC


Thanks I think. If I could upload videos easily from my phone to here, I would post them. I'd happily text them to someone. My X-Men superpower was handling nasty tastes because I couldn't taste it.

The smell thing is really unfortunate actually. I can't smell hardly anything. I had to get really close to some elk stew for me to smell it. I'm really nervous for Thanksgiving because 1/4 of the fun is smelling it, and my mom's apple pie.

For those who poo-poo the Rona. It's worse than a bad cold. I don't think I realize how crappy I felt until I started to feel better. It didn't knock me flat like some, but it wasn't fun. I unknowingly exposed my 72 year old dad, his 72 year old buddy who came out with me, and my two nephews, who tested positive. They live with my brother who doesn't have good health, and I was really nervous.

I wasn't loosey goosey with protocol, but I wasn't super vigilant either. I was pretty scared there for a minute that I could have given it to my dad. It gave my poor wife and daughter the runs for 6 days. I went to church feeling fine and exposed people there (I wore a mask in all but one meeting, but we were pretty socially distanced in that meeting between 3 of us). I felt really bad.

Bottom line, take it pretty serious. You don't want someone to get it who goes south.


----------



## caddis8

johnnycake said:


> Your fault for being cheap and not going for the Tushy Spa!


I'm going to my parents this week who came home from Germany cause of the Rona. They have no bidet. I'm already not looking forward to it. Once a luxury is now a necessity. I'm seriously thinking about getting one for them.


----------



## backcountry

johnnycake said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> Thx for clarifying. Glad it came back for her but sorry to hear about fatigue. "Post-viral" responses can be a real drag.
> 
> And besides being an official X-Men your wife now understands the basics of flavor &#128513;.
> 
> Different note....Hello Tushy gets really cold around mid-November in this old house. If you see reports about the first ever case of a frost bit sphincter then you'll know I made it to internet famous.
> 
> 
> 
> Your fault for being cheap and not going for the Tushy Spa!
Click to expand...

We bought the spa but we don't have the money to hire a plumber to adapt our weird, old faucet setup to the warm water line. Plus, we aren't bringing workers into our house given my wife's pregnancy.

My bum is better but not it's best yet. But who needs coffee with that temperature blast during the morning constitutional.


----------



## backcountry

caddis8 said:


> DallanC said:
> 
> 
> 
> Congrats to caddis8 for joining the X-Men with his new mutation and super powers
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -DallanC
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks I think. If I could upload videos easily from my phone to here, I would post them. I'd happily text them to someone. My X-Men superpower was handling nasty tastes because I couldn't taste it.
> 
> The smell thing is really unfortunate actually. I can't smell hardly anything. I had to get really close to some elk stew for me to smell it. I'm really nervous for Thanksgiving because 1/4 of the fun is smelling it, and my mom's apple pie.
> 
> For those who poo-poo the Rona. It's worse than a bad cold. I don't think I realize how crappy I felt until I started to feel better. It didn't knock me flat like some, but it wasn't fun. I unknowingly exposed my 72 year old dad, his 72 year old buddy who came out with me, and my two nephews, who tested positive. They live with my brother who doesn't have good health, and I was really nervous.
> 
> I wasn't loosey goosey with protocol, but I wasn't super vigilant either. I was pretty scared there for a minute that I could have given it to my dad. It gave my poor wife and daughter the runs for 6 days. I went to church feeling fine and exposed people there (I wore a mask in all but one meeting, but we were pretty socially distanced in that meeting between 3 of us). I felt really bad.
> 
> Bottom line, take it pretty serious. You don't want someone to get it who goes south.
Click to expand...

Thanks for that honesty. It's caught a ton of we'll meaning people off guard.

We've been high risk the entire time (CDC's most recent report updated news about pregnancy to include noticeably higher fatality rates compared to non-pregnant women of same age) but found ourselves letting our guard down for a bit. Not sloppy but a few subtle returns to old habits. We had our first seasonal funk the last few weeks and waiting 48 hours to get the results was nerve racking. I was scared at the possibility we'd accidentally risked our little eggplants safety

We had really hoped to quaran-team with another couple but the "math" on it all just didn't make sense. It's been a long year of relative physical isolation but it will be worth it knowing we did our best to protect ourselves and the ones we love.

Fingers crossed we can deploy the vaccines to healthcare workers in the near future than the highest risk citizens. I'm hopeful my parents can visit their new granddaughter this spring with a vaccine to protect them and our soon to be child. Long way off from whatever normal we recreate but it seems like we are seeing a horizon line.


----------



## Critter

One problem with connecting Hello Tushy to the hot water line is that after sitting in the pipes for a while the hot water is just as cold as the cold water in the pipes. 

Have you ever just turned on the hot water at a sink and had instant hot water after lets say overnight? There are some instances where you will have it quicker than usual but not often.


----------



## brisket

caddis8 said:


> They have no bidet. I'm already not looking forward to it. Once a luxury is now a necessity.


Truer words have never been spoken.


----------



## Vanilla

Critter said:


> One problem with connecting Hello Tushy to the hot water line is that after sitting in the pipes for a while the hot water is just as cold as the cold water in the pipes.
> 
> Have you ever just turned on the hot water at a sink and had instant hot water after lets say overnight? There are some instances where you will have it quicker than usual but not often.


You can run the water through the Tushy before using the bidet function. There are work arounds for this, Critter.

And the cold spritz is actually quite nice, I must say!


----------



## Tuckerness

I belive that most of us have to take care of this, as we don’t know when and where we can meet it. You can see that for now different treatments are not saving people from it.


----------



## DallanC

Sooo pop a couple aspirin and you reduce most of the major the covid dangers by 43 to 47 percent, including DEATH.

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu...-Death-in-Hospitalized-COVID-19-Patients.html


> The researchers found aspirin use was associated with a 44 percent reduction in the risk of being put on a mechanical ventilator, a 43 percent decrease in the risk of ICU admission and - most importantly - a 47 percent decrease in the risk of dying in the hospital compared to those who were not taking aspirin. The patients in the aspirin group did not experience a significant increase in adverse events such as major bleeding while hospitalized.


Simple aspirin... 47% lower risk of death in a hospital. You'd think the media would be mentioning this.

-DallanC


----------



## wyogoob

DallanC said:


> Sooo pop a couple aspirin and you reduce most of the major the covid dangers by 43 to 47 percent, including DEATH.
> 
> https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu...-Death-in-Hospitalized-COVID-19-Patients.html
> 
> Simple aspirin... 47% lower risk of death in a hospital. You'd think the media would be mentioning this.
> 
> -DallanC


Great news! I've been taking low-dose aspirin since like 1951....uh top of the page.
.


----------



## backcountry

It was covered by Reuters, Medium, Forbes and Gozmodo at a minimum.

By the press releases own language the study design requires a follow-up, confirmatory study. It wasn't a classic randomized, double-blind study which is the gold standard for such medicine. It's what the current vaccines went through.

If it works that would be a huge breakthrough. Affordable therapies and preventions are needed at the global level. Currently that is a big if, especially with a drug with a mixed history when used prophylactically.


----------



## middlefork

Well I guess that because I'm on blood thinners I can just run rampant :smile:

As for ventilators and ICU's, been there, done that. It is highly over rated.


----------



## backcountry

Middlefork,

Did you end up in ICU for Covid-19? Or are you talking about another experience?

Either way, sorry mate that sucks.


----------



## middlefork

backcountry said:


> Middlefork,
> 
> Did you end up in ICU for Covid-19? Or are you talking about another experience?
> 
> Either way, sorry mate that sucks.


No, not Covid related. Blood clot in my large intestine resulting in loosing about 6". Two tours in the ICU on ventilators after some complications. 3 months total in the hospital.

A lot of the effects they are reporting for people with Covid are presented in almost all cases of a prolonged visit to the ICU.


----------



## backcountry

I hope anyone on the forum that qualifies for the vaccine is able to get it this first round. There are millions of homes that this will help physically and mentally.

Our house isn't likely to get it for a while since my wife is pregnant. I'm guessing late spring or summer.

Extremely grateful and amazed by the hard work and skill that went into developing this vaccine in record time. It's a momentous day. I think Catherder mentioned the existing foundation of coronavirus vaccine work before this hit and it's just reinforces how lucky we are to live in this era.

Stay safe folks and best of lucks in the weeks and months to come.


----------



## Vanilla

I'm not going to lie, when I read the headline of the first batch of vaccines arriving in Utah, I got a little choked up. 

This has been a tough year. It has impacted everyone in one way or another, for sure. For us, all the things that really matter are fine. I stayed employed, my family has for the most part stayed safe and healthy, and my immediate family has been able to spend more time together, which has been a big blessing. That said, I realized in early November that this stupid thing has taken a much bigger toll on me personally than I had understood or maybe was willing to admit. I've lost passion for some things that have always been very important to me and am a much less patient person. I guess the silver lining is that I can pretty easily identify where the problems came from, they just aren't easily fixed at the moment, with some I know I can't even control at all, so I've been trying to figure out how to break out of the funk. 

The vaccine gives light at the end of a long, dark tunnel. I know we are a ways off from it being distributed on a wide scale, and I know even with the vaccine it won't be perfect, but light and hope are blessings. I'll take it!


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I think Catherder mentioned the existing foundation of coronavirus vaccine work before this hit and it's just reinforces how lucky we are to live in this era.


Of all the things I've opined, pontificated, belched, or "let" on the interweb over the years, I'm most grateful that I was correct about this one. We truly do live in a unique time. Now, to get enough participation to approach herd immunity.

I think the pandemic has changed us all, or perhaps more likely, revealed parts of us we didn't know about. That can be a blessing and/or a curse. Hopefully, we all can maintain hope and grow from the experience. Stay safe and well, everyone.


----------



## DallanC

These new vaccines are mRNA based, not based off old "dead" virus's like the other flu vaccines. They work in a very different way.

There are HEAPS of miss-information out there, as well as valid information on some pretty nasty side effects. Its difficult to know which is which when the CDC can only say there isn't enough data to truly make a accurate determination.

The whole idea of being so terrified of getting a foreign entity introduced into your body (Covid19) that you are purposefully going to introduce a different foreign entity into your body sounds... odd. But if individuals are confident in it and wish to get vaccinated, thats great.

Someone "may" get covid, few "may" have severe reactions, fewer still "may" be hospitalized and a small fraction of that "may" die from it. Lots of "mays".

If you want some guidelines, go look at the research done with vaccinations on H1N1, SARS etc. Those have been out for enough time that their side effects have been more accurately documented. The "2006 Dubbo" study is an interesting place to start.

I have no plans to get vaccinated in the next year. If I haven't had Covid19 by end of next year, or heck even into 2022 I may consider it... but by that point covid19 may be fairly rare as "herd immunity" is probable.

PS: My dad just got over covid19, 82 years old... no worse than a cold. The worst thing he told me was the "boredom", being stuck home, lol.

-DallanC


----------



## bowgy

I am kind of with DallanC on this.

I think I will give it a year to see if any babies come out looking like monkeys or aliens from outer space.

They say it usually takes many years to get a new vaccines and this was rushed through pretty fast. I hope it works well but I am not interested in getting it.


----------



## DallanC

I'm mostly concerned with the possible side effect of chronic fatigue syndrome specifically. This has shown up in the past with some of these mRNA vaccines.

Here's the rub: There's a bunch of different vaccines with different mRNA make-ups. I wish the media would differentiate between them when talking about the various vaccines in use around the world. Pfizer's might be 100% safe but Moderna's might have issues... or vice versa. How is Russias vaccine? Or China's? 

The AstraZenica vaccine was halted because it caused Transverse Myelitis, inflamation of the spinal cord.

So the question becomes WHICH vaccine does one take that has the least amount of unintended issues. Maybe they will all be 100% safe... its just very early in the process to know long term effectiveness and side effects.

-DallanC


----------



## Ray

DallanC said:


> I'm mostly concerned with the possible side effect of chronic fatigue syndrome specifically. This has shown up in the past with some of these mRNA vaccines.
> 
> Here's the rub: There's a bunch of different vaccines with different mRNA make-ups. I wish the media would differentiate between them when talking about the various vaccines in use around the world. Pfizer's might be 100% safe but Moderna's might have issues... or vice versa. How is Russias vaccine? Or China's?
> 
> The AstraZenica vaccine was halted because it caused Transverse Myelitis, inflamation of the spinal cord.
> 
> So the question becomes WHICH vaccine does one take that has the least amount of unintended issues. Maybe they will all be 100% safe... its just very early in the process to know long term effectiveness and side effects.
> 
> -DallanC


This^^ I'll wait a year before getting it


----------



## Catherder

A couple points.

There are valid questions about this and any vaccine. However, it should be noted that the "process" was still carried out consistent with any other vaccine. Yes, it was prioritized due to the magnitude of the problem, but I'm comfortable that "the process" did what it was supposed to in spite of edicts from politicians and other pressures.

Next, *every* vaccine we have has some side effects reported. The covid ones *will* be no different. The media will report this and undoubtedly be in a froth about such awful things like sore arms and transient fatigue. Could there be worse side effects? Certainly. Time will tell. It goes back to a risk/benefit analysis. The phase 3 trials show a reasonable amount of risk and a 90% success rate. The cost of the ongoing pandemic is beyond huge.

So, for me, I am presenting an arm for the shot(s) as soon as I am allowed. I do work in a higher risk occupation and if I or my colleague get sick, the entire business shuts down. I won't condemn others who may feel differently or have other life situations affecting their decision however.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> backcountry said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think Catherder mentioned the existing foundation of coronavirus vaccine work before this hit and it's just reinforces how lucky we are to live in this era.
> 
> 
> 
> Of all the things I've opined, pontificated, belched, or "let" on the interweb over the years, I'm most grateful that I was correct about this one. We truly do live in a unique time. Now, to get enough participation to approach herd immunity.
> 
> I think the pandemic has changed us all, or perhaps more likely, revealed parts of us we didn't know about. That can be a blessing and/or a curse. Hopefully, we all can maintain hope and grow from the experience. Stay safe and well, everyone.
Click to expand...

You provided some much needed insight. Thanks for those posts.

I've got a lot of growing to do and made some mistakes. My wife and I are closer and stronger than ever which I'll be forever grateful about. That said I'd appreciate a boring year or three.

I'm hopeful enough people will take the vaccines to get to or above herd immunity. I think they will once people recognize how much more the economy will grow when most of us do. Our household has remained employed but it's been tense and remains so. Job insecurity is exhausting.

Hopefully people start to learn that this could have a 6-12 month rotation/seasonality if we don't quash it with a vaccine. The logistics and tolls are just so immense without it being widely adopted.

Another good bit of news today that could be an immense asset for business and all of us:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...virus-test-that-doesnt-require-a-prescription

Our household has been in a community with two outbreaks and possibly a third now. It sucks being "higher risk" and having to wait so long for tests. Especially when she's the only consistently practicing masking and social distancing. Last time we tried testing we had an appointment and they still booted us out of line for overcrowding.

And in a couple months we basically start over, at her business, as the assumed immunity timeframe will be expiring.

Grateful for all the good news and help from professionals.


----------



## DallanC

Wow... some people are getting Bells Palsy from both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccine's. Apparently thats ok because it usually goes away within 3 months. :-?



> "Ninety percent, if not more, of patients who have Bell's palsy experience a mild, transient weakness of the side of the face which is completely resolved within three months, the majority within a month and a half," he said. "It's a relatively benign condition."


-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Just to be clear, that quote on the 90% that have symptoms go away within 3 months is not about side effects from the vaccine, but for ALL people who suffer from an episode of Bell's palsy, regardless of the cause. 

Pfizer had 4 instances of Bell's palsy and they had over 43,000 people in the trial. Moderna had 3 instances out of 30,000 people in the trial. 

So, yes...there have been some very rare instances of Bell's palsy, it appears. Definitely something to be aware of, and there should be full disclosure on the risks involved. But no need to sensationalize while we do it. 

The best part for me is that there will literally be millions of people vaccinated before I ever get the option to have a needle stuck in my arm. I sincerely thank all those that go before me for being the guinea pigs.


----------



## backcountry

Some clarification on language.

It's hard to know if the vaccine "caused" the palsy. The ratio amongst the test participants was lower than it's average prevalance in society. As well, the 4 people all developed it at noticeably different times.

An article with the quote above also stated



> Twenty-five to 35 patients per 100,000 population get Bell's palsy in the U.S. every year, the National Organization for Rare Disorders reported. About 40,000 Americans a year are diagnosed with it.
> 
> Geraci notes that is more frequent than what was recorded in the COVID-19 vaccine trial.
> 
> "Four persons out of almost 40,000 is even less than what we would expect to see when we take 40,000 people from the street and watch them for three months" independent of a vaccine, he said.
> 
> He also emphasized that there were not enough cases to determine whether they were caused by the vaccine or happened coincidently.


If it is a side effect of the vaccine that sucks. But another point of clarity, it ranged it duration from 3 to 21 days in the affected patients in the study. The quote mentioned earlier is a generic one for palsy as it has been observed outside the study.



> The whole idea of being so terrified of getting a foreign entity introduced into your body (Covid19) that you are purposefully going to introduce a different foreign entity into your body sounds... odd.


Not odd, we do it all the time: most kids in the US have been doing it for years (DTap, Hib, MMR, etc); we've been using the flu vaccine for ages; I'll be getting a Tdap booster a few weeks before my child is born; HPV for teenagers as it helps prevent viral infection and cancer; etc; etc.

I'm a firm advocate of bodily autonomy and respect whatever people do. I just hope folks dig through the literature in detail. I'm probably going to have to read up more as there is some talk about working with your doctor to decide if getting it when pregnant is worth it despite a lack of such women in the study cohort. I had assumed it would be advised against so I haven't spent much time looking into how pregnancy can interact with and affect vaccination.

Fingers crossed.


----------



## Vanilla

I realize people are suspicious of anything like this. But vaccines work. There is a reason people of my generation don’t suffer from polio. And the most salacious “study” against vaccines in general was shown to be a fraud already. I know people still quote that study, even though the lead on it has admitted he lied. 

I remember when my first child was born and sitting in the hospital talking to our pediatrician that was making a round at the hospital and stopped in to visit us. He asked how we wanted to proceed with vaccinations. My response: “However you tell us to. We’re paying you to tell us these things!” He just laughed, and seemed somewhat relieved to be talking to someone that was willing to listen. 

Talk to your doctor if you have worries. Some may advise you to pass. But we NEED a safe, effective vaccine. The world needs it. I sure hope these fit the bill.


----------



## Brettski7

Ray said:


> This^^ I'll wait a year before getting it


I'll be getting it when I'm forced to, which will happen at some point.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Vanilla

A friend of mine shared this article today. He's a doc, not the kind I'd go to about vaccines or coronaviruses, but if I tore my ACL, he'd be my guy! Breaks down the trial in a way even a dumbo like me could understand.

https://rebelem.com/covid-19-update-the-covid-19-pfizer-vaccine/


----------



## bowguyonly

Here come the zombies. 
The vaccine is going to create them. 
Olibooger, lmao. Riots. Tanks in streets. What a dummy. Almost a year ago Oli said that crazy stuff. No way that is happening today. 😶

Vanilla = 😋🌮


----------



## backcountry

Did anybody have poison underpants on their bingo card?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55395683

So many potential puns. Deadly boxers? Do your worst.


----------



## Catherder

I just had to replace my cell phone and the new one has 5G. Since that is apparently how Bill Gates controls the injected, I guess it is zombie time once I get vaccinated. -O,- 

Do we know the Ballistic coefficient of zombie killing bullets?


----------



## bowguyonly

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=us+military+at+truck+stop&iar=videos&ia=videos

Maybe what the wacko was saying is coming true?


----------



## brisket

bowguyonly said:


> Olibooger, lmao. Riots.


Do the riots that occurred in most of the major cities in the US last summer not count? Or the capitol storming last week? I'm unsure why you are 'lmao' right now.


----------



## backcountry

Most of those haven't specifically been because of Covid-19, though it definitely influenced them. Most of the Covid-19 related protests remained "mostly peaceful" even if involving a fair amount of open carry. 

I think we all know Olibooger was predicting something completely different.

More somber reality....by the 1 year mark of the start of this thread, and a little before reported arrival of virus stateside, we'll have lost more than 400k fellow Americans to it. That's a grim statistic. We are living through one of the most devastating public health crises in American history. I think that's worth a pause and reflection on.

My wife's side just lost their first family member. He was other wise healthy senior with no underlying conditions that was living a great life. They are devastated. The toll is real.

Stay safe folks. I'm excited that my parents get to sign up for their first shot after midnight.


----------



## Catherder

So, Oli, what are these pictures supposed to demonstrate? Probably helping with security for the inauguration or at a state capitol? The pandemic and 2020 have definitely proven that inhaling internet conspiracy theories is harmful, so I suppose you have had a (self fulfilling) point in a roundabout way. 

Back, I'm sorry to hear this. I think the pandemic has touched almost all of us. My mom also should be able to be vaccinated starting tomorrow and I just received word that maybe I can too very soon due to occupation. Better days are ahead.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

I'm getting the shot today. Not worried about it but if my next post reads like this>-jalhgc[3qpb8r 2ughp r8uvv vpopw'wwvj[nsfmp2938r ncwoe4958wc/345^&%[email protected] out.


----------



## 2full

-jalhgc[3qpb8r 2ughp r8uvv vpopw'wwvj[nsfmp2938r ncwoe4958wc/345^&%[email protected] out.[/QUOTE]

How did you get my password ???
:shock:


----------



## Catherder

7MM RELOADED said:


> I'm getting the shot today. Not worried about it but if my next post reads like this>-jalhgc[3qpb8r 2ughp r8uvv vpopw'wwvj[nsfmp2938r ncwoe4958wc/345^&%[email protected] out.


As I understand it, you should be fine unless you also use a 5G phone. That's how "they" turn on zombie mode.

I've never been so mad to get a new phone as I was last month when my old one croaked on me.


----------



## backcountry

Brainz


----------



## wyoming2utah

A perspective that hit home for me..The US has now more Covid-19 deaths than battle caused deaths of US soldiers in WWII and Vietnam combined.

Received my first vaccine dose yesterday....


----------



## bowgy

wyoming2utah said:


> A perspective that hit home for me..The US has now more Covid-19 deaths than battle caused deaths of US soldiers in WWII and Vietnam combined.
> 
> Received my first vaccine dose yesterday....


One difference is in those wars it was man fighting man and not an unseen force.

The similarities are a lot of government screw ups.


----------



## backcountry

The death toll is extremely disheartening. We'll live with that accountability as a nation for generations.

I am listening to the Social Distance Podcast from the Atlantic and they have a very digestible episode about the new variants and implications for us (and a bit about why social measure are still needed during this phase of a vaccination campaign).

https://tinyurl.com/yxd7qbxb


----------



## DallanC

Probably wasn't the best idea to order sick covid19 positive patients to nursing homes containing our most fragile population.

But hey, on a positive note the guy who did it got an award "in recognition of his leadership"


-DallanC


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

I slept like a baby last night. I need a shot every night of that stuff and I hope you can read this.


----------



## Catherder

7MM RELOADED said:


> I slept like a baby last night. I need a shot every night of that stuff and I hope you can read this.


I'm scheduled for next Friday, barring an apocalypse of one type or another.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> I'm scheduled for next Friday, barring an apocalypse of one type or another.


From the sound of things, the amount of vaccines the current administration claimed to have is not exactly what they have. Hopefully Utah doesn't run out before you get your shot (pun intended) to get the vaccine. It doesn't appear we are going to get anywhere near what was expected.


----------



## backcountry

I'm reading that as well. Fingers crossed we don't hit a major bottleneck for folks to get their second dose.

20k seniors signed up for the vaccine in my parents country in the first 24 hours. Hopefully them signing up at 830 am that day helps their place in that first come first serve queue.


----------



## Catherder

Utah County has been taking that into account. They opened up slots on Wednesday for next week and they were gone within 5 minutes. Fortunately, I logged in at 2 minutes and barely got an appointment. They then put out a statement explaining that more slots will be opened up as confirmed vaccine becomes available.


----------



## middlefork

I tried to get an appointment on Davis County. It's just about as much fun as trying to get a general season any bull tag. Gets to the appointment date/time screen and keeps working and working but not giving any options.

Is it going to be like the ammo hoarders and you need to know exactly when they release more appointments?


----------



## Brettski7

Well of it makes anyone feel better y’all will have one less spot wait behind. I’m holding out as long as I can but will eventually have to get it at some point or another from my job. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Critter

You have to figure that with as long as the government both federal, state, and local has had to figure out this vaccine thing that it would work just as smooth as a babies bottom but I guess that when you get government involved it is never going to do that. 

Here in Colorado the same things are happening as they are in Utah. Slow disbursement of the vaccine and not enough to really go around on a first come first served basis. Where I live the appointments for the 70+ crowd filled up in the first 5 minutes that it was available. 

I'm just under that cut off but last night I put in a request for it when my group comes around in a few weeks, I hope. 

I am also wondering just what will happen if Biden does as he says and dumps the whole supply that the government is holding into the states. I had heard that a lot of that supply was being held so that those who got a shot could get their second shot when it was needed. I haven't heard what happens if you don't get that second shot in the time frame of when you are suppose to.


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## middlefork

My wife got hers today under the school system program. Which I applaud. I guess nobody knows how many 70 and over there are. I realized that there would not be enough doses for everyone and I'm fine with that but updates and information are a little slow.

I've been poked prodded and injected with so many things in my life another couple of ones won't hurt me.

There are certainly some out there that would benefit before me.


----------



## backcountry

The Trump Administration made the same commitment this week but it's been reported it doesn't really matter as the second dose "reserve" was already mostly tapped by the end of December. If the administrations and reporting are accurate the supply chain is fine for commitments for second doses even if the roll out for the initial one is lagging.

I know Iron Co. had a major website issue so scheduling was non-existent for a bit this week. Sounds like many health districts have had similar problems. I'm guessing most of them where not originally designed for this amount of traffic.

The next few months will be interesting. My wife technically has access but being pregnant throws a kink in the choice. ACoG hasn't released a statement on it for pregnant women other than they shouldn't be denied access. Turns out a few "inadvertent" pregnancies were in the volunteer pool even though it wasn't part of the study design. Early reporting is there were no known or unusual side effects in that cohort but I can't find any verification of that claim. On top of the uncertainty, neither of us are psyched on the technicality that gives her access as it's not in the spirit of the goal and it's tough to justify when higher risk people are still waiting. The potential benefit of some passive immunity for our baby girl isn't to be underestimated though.


----------



## DallanC

My dad got it yesterday... I believe through the VA. That may be an option for military folk.


-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

I’m a long ways from getting a vaccine myself. I’ve known that all along and I’m okay with it. I think Utah’s priority has been fine, the execution of it has sucked. We’ve thrown vaccines away because they couldn’t get it in someone arm
Soon enough. That is 100% unacceptable. 

Again, I’m fine with the priority list, but if you know tomorrow you are throwing out 175 vaccines because the prioritized groups didn’t take them, put it out on Twitter and let anyone come get it that wants it. Isn’t it better that a very healthy 35 year old IT guy/gal that works from home gets it than if it goes in the garbage? 

(My number above was arbitrary, I have no idea how many we’ve thrown out, only that it’s happened. 1 dose in the garbage because it couldn’t get in an arm quickly enough is too many.) 

The crappy and ineffective distribution of the vaccine is my single biggest frustration right now. And I’ve got a lot of frustrations right now! Thousands of people in our country are dying every day while they sort this mess out that should have been sorted months ago.


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> I'm a long ways from getting a vaccine myself. I've known that all along and I'm okay with it. I think Utah's priority has been fine, the execution of it has sucked. We've thrown vaccines away because they couldn't get it in someone arm
> Soon enough. That is 100% unacceptable.


Agreed. And it was the policy implemented by the same guy who put sick people in nursing homes. They imposed such strict fines to hospitals that DIDNT follow the priority list, that hospitals had to throw out unused vials if they couldnt find people on the priority list.

I wonder if that guy will get another award. Probably not... just reelection.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Not just that guy, Dallan. We’ve thrown doses away right here in Utah as well. 

But yes, that guy is a total joke. Seems to be going around, these days.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> The crappy and ineffective distribution of the vaccine is my single biggest frustration right now. And I've got a lot of frustrations right now! Thousands of people in our country are dying every day while they sort this mess out that should have been sorted months ago.


Yeah, the distribution situation is quite frustrating. With the lack of a national distribution and implementation plan, each state, each county, each school district, and each health entity (IHC and University Health staff got vaccinated before Mountainstar and others) are on their own. Some will do a decent job in getting things to work and others, not so much. With so many different people calling shots, I am mildly surprised there haven't been more problems.

I hope things will get better bureaucratically, but what I suspect will make things overall better will be more vaccine brands coming online and simply providing more product. That still will be a couple months away.

As for a lot of frustrations...................., we need to get you fishing.


----------



## Al Hansen

I hit the lottery. Yippee. 3 minutes later my wife couldn't get in. Davis County.


----------



## backcountry

Fishing helps ��

The frustration is fair and at some point I hope there is a thorough investigation. Not one to point fingers but one to improve systems for the next time; without global changes this will likely happen again given how interconnected we are and the rate/way in which coronaviruses are emerging. I had hoped that we had the skill to execute the distribution and injections better this time but obviously it's been less than ideal. 

Fingers crossed we get through this current surge in fatalities and the vaccine can get into high risk individuals arms and start to save more lives.

I'm still blown away at how quick the vaccines were developed.


----------



## Critter

From what I understand a lot of vaccines and drugs are developed fairly fast. It is the regulatory process that takes years before they hit the market.

That is why you can go to countries like Canada and purchase drugs that are not available here in the US.


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## backcountry

I believe Catherder is better equipped to verify or correct the reporting than I, but this is claimed to be the fastest human vaccine development in history. Before now the record was 4 years with Measles in the 1960s. This is a major breakthrough and can be credited to the immense groundwork scientist have done with mRna and coronaviruses over the years. Without that effort and skill we would be dealing with an even bigger burden of hospitalizations and fatalities in months and years to come. I'm just in awe and so grateful.

https://connect.uclahealth.org/2020/12/10/the-fastest-vaccine-in-history/


----------



## Vanilla

I fished today. It was absolutely fantastic! Everything but the catching part. Didn’t touch a fish all day.


----------



## Packout

Well I didn't fish today so life isn't as rosy as Vanilla.

I too am grateful for the vaccine. They have been working on Coronavirus vaccines for years so the foundation work was done and allowed for the quick development of a Covid-19 vaccine. I just wish they'd stop politicizing it. 

I'm also hopeful the vaccine will allow us to return to some type of normalcy this summer- although I won't hold my breath for that.....

My son received the vaccine and my father, too. Both seemed to come thru it well after 36-48 hours.


----------



## Catherder

I'm not sure about "fastest" but it was done fairly quickly. I remember reading that they developed the mumps vaccine fairly quickly as well back at the beginning of the pandemic. I believe that 2 factors come into play though. 

1. Researchers were able to build upon previous work done on both SARS and MERS as well as animal coronavirus vaccine work. That cut the work time quite a bit.

2. The urgency of the current pandemic freed up resources, esp financially, that sped up development. Many less publicized drugs and vaccines could have completed their testing phase more quickly if the $$$ was there to do it quicker. Required testing costs money and the gubmint doesn't usually give pharma that money to test new products.


Addendum; I too went fishing for a couple hours today. It wasn't fast but I did touch a few fish.


----------



## johnnycake

I fished today and it was glorious. Got to give my new Otter Vortex Resort a spin today. Oooeee! I am loving all that space with the family. 

Might have to play with it again tomorrow. After I get tired chasing ptarmigan in the morning might just have to relax with some resort time


----------



## johnnycake

Oof, should have just stuck to the hard deck. +4 miles on snowshoes, with about every other step dropping knee deep SUCKS. Poor Ava had to swim in powder all morning. Only to get one bird then watch the rest of the flock fly into a no shooting zone. Ugh. I'll be putting birds back on the back burner until a better crust layer develops.


----------



## backcountry

Sounds like my parents are experiencing what others are across the country. The county allowed people to pre-register if they were 65 and older but they just notified most that they won't likely get the vaccine anytime soon. Just not enough doses being delivered. On top of it the people they actually scheduled will be kicked to the back of the queue because of the limitations of the software that won't align them to shift the sequence once a person has been scheduled for the shot. I sincerely hope these mistakes don't backfire and affect enthusiasm as we all truly benefit when we reach a vaccine induced herd immunity.

Luckily my parents haven't been bumped but looking unlikely they can get it before out child is born.


----------



## backcountry

Don't know about Utah but smaller counties in SC are offering appointments to those in bigger ones that are backlogged. Makes s ton of sense with the Pfizer vaccine given its storage needs and shelf life. Grateful as parents get their first dose tomorrow.

Don't know about everyone else but it's getting closer to home. Another cousin's family is dealing with a severe case. His mother-in-law is hospitalized. Hopefully our better understanding and treatments are helping reduce fatalities as these new variants spread across the US. I have a feeling family reunions in the next couple years will be rife with these experiences.

Stay safe folks. That light at the end of the tunnel can't come soon enough.


----------



## middlefork

It seems as far as Utah is concerned the supply of vaccine is being out paced by the the speed of the administration of said vaccine. At least that is the story right now.

I hope that those that are able to get vaccinated can at least start getting some peace of mind.


----------



## Catherder

Utah County has added several vaccine availability blocks all this week for eligible people. I take that as an encouraging sign. 

Zombie day for me is tomorrow for the first dose.


----------



## middlefork

Catherder said:


> .
> 
> Zombie day for me is tomorrow for the first dose.


The wife got hers last week. So far I haven't noticed a significant change. I hope it stays that way.


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> Utah County has added several vaccine availability blocks all this week for eligible people. I take that as an encouraging sign.
> 
> Zombie day for me is tomorrow for the first dose.


We'll know the side effects are serious if you start rage posting.


----------



## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> The wife got hers last week. So far I haven't noticed a significant change. I hope it stays that way.


Does she have 5G? Just wait until she hits a 5G network. That's when the madness will start!


----------



## backcountry

I know you think that's funny Vanilla but we haven't heard from Catherder in hours and I'm starting to think he's also been activated. We lose too many good people to 5G zombism each day to make it a laughing matter.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I know you think that's funny Vanilla but we haven't heard from Catherder in hours and I'm starting to think he's also been activated. We lose too many good people to 5G zombism each day to make it a laughing matter.


Ok, I'm here, feel fine and am now half through a regular work day. Minimal pain at injection site, less than a flu shot. I do have a strange craving for some of Goobs brain recipes though.

I also figured out the meaning behind Oli's pictures of troops. The National guard (or ROTC) was helping the Health Department with getting people through the system. (It went very quickly and professionally IMO) Maybe "They" sent them to help out.


----------



## middlefork

Well I finally got an appointment, for the end of next month. Whoopie!


----------



## Catherder

Day 2, no ill effects, and back at work again today. As far as vaccines go, pretty smooth, compared to other vax like flu shots and tetanus. 

Apparently, the booster dose will be a little rougher, but not bad overall.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> Day 2, no ill effects, and back at work again today. As far as vaccines go, pretty smooth, compared to other vax like flu shots and tetanus.
> 
> Apparently, the booster dose will be a little rougher, but not bad overall.


Famous last words. I heard there is AIDS in the coronavirus vaccine!

(Legit, someone called my mother in law and told her they were not getting the vaccine because they put AIDS in it.)


----------



## backcountry

That's a new one. I feel for the older generations as I don't think anything compares to this era of misinformation. Nothing prepares trusting people for the level of scrutiny you need to wade through it.


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> That's a new one. I feel for the older generations as I don't think anything compares to this era of misinformation. Nothing prepares trusting people for the level of scrutiny you need to wade through it.


Seriously! She is the nicest, most sweet woman you'd ever meet. Just salt of the earth, sincere, and believes in and loves people. She is also 71 years old. So when she gets a call like this her first thought is to trust, not doubt, but it didn't seem right and called us. My response?

"No, I do not believe the leaders of the world have collaborated and conspired to infect their populations with the AIDS virus with this vaccine."

It's the same reason that make the elderly vulnerable to financial scams as well. And it makes me want to hunt down these absolute morons spreading these rumors and curb stomp them.


----------



## Brettski7

Catherder said:


> Day 2, no ill effects, and back at work again today. As far as vaccines go, pretty smooth, compared to other vax like flu shots and tetanus.
> 
> Apparently, the booster dose will be a little rougher, but not bad overall.


The hospital my wife works at actually suggest people take off a few days after the second shot because of how much it sucks.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Al Hansen

Just got my 1st one. Second scheduled.


----------



## Catherder

Brettski7 said:


> The hospital my wife works at actually suggest people take off a few days after the second shot because of how much it sucks.


A friend that has completed the process said her hospital recommended getting the booster on a day off. No crazy symptoms, but one doesn't have full energy and will be a bit "off".


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> That's a new one. I feel for the older generations as I don't think anything compares to this era of misinformation. Nothing prepares trusting people for the level of scrutiny you need to wade through it.


This is so true. I would even say that all generations are faced with significant challenges in dealing with internet and social media misinformation and conspiracy theories. Just this past year has shown that misinformation has complicated and hindered public health, the major issues of the day, and put American democracy itself in peril.


----------



## brisket

Mrs. brisket got the first shot yesterday and I’m happy to report she is still alive today.


----------



## Catherder

Some "light" reading on the subject.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-covid-19-vaccine-are-everywhere-on-facebook/


----------



## backcountry

Good read. It's definitely a struggle for everyone and FB's model makes it so much worse. 

My sister is pretty bought into the autism concept and facts about that data being falsified doesn't budge her. So it goes.

My poor friend hasn't been able to do family get togethers with a couple of her siblings for several years. Their child had a noticeably weakened immune system and was having pretty serious respiratory infections even with vaccinated parents. Even explaining that to their siblings didn't help. Appealing to shared values and thoroughly explaining the science didn't work. So tough but I'd ultimately protect my child as well until the doctors gave the greenlight.

I'm able to respect individual choices, especially after dating a Christian Scientist years ago, but struggle with the the scientific misinformation. I haven't found a great way to move that needle forward. Luckily the few people that will get to meet our daughter this spring are completely fine getting their Tdap before interactions with her. The Covid-19 vaccine will mostly benefit them but I'd just assume not risk any unexpected, and currently unknown, long term consequences for us as well.

Fingers crossed we can get closer to herd immunity by summer or autumn and diffuse the effects of the misinformation. None of us want another full year of this pandemic.


----------



## Catherder

A quick update. My wife and co workers assure me that I'm not a zombie, so good there, but there was some noticeable fatigue on days 4 and 5. Nothing too bad, but the work afternoon was a little more tiring and I just bummed around the house yesterday on my day off instead of going fishing or other more strenuous activities.


----------



## middlefork

No problem with 5G? Not sure I can handle my wife getting anymore crazy. :smile:


----------



## Catherder

middlefork said:


> No problem with 5G? Not sure I can handle my wife getting anymore crazy. :smile:


Nope, been on the phone a fair bit this week, and no odd behavior.

Still mildly craving Goobs brain recipes though.


----------



## backcountry

I'm starting to question getting it if it decreases the drive to go fishing. The cure can't be worse than the disease 😁


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I'm starting to question getting it if it decreases the drive to go fishing. The cure can't be worse than the disease &#128513;


Oh, I think that's not a concern. Yesterday's weather was also pretty crappy. If conditions were more favorable, I bet I would have "dug down deep" to find the strength to go.


----------



## backcountry

Ugh, can't wait for this to be over. Looks like my extended family is about to lose another member. I normally hate being so pessimistic but once you start seeing the cascade of organ failure with Covid-19 after 7+ days in the ICU it becomes hard not to brace for the worst. Pneumonia is both lungs, and now her kidneys and liver are starting to fail. 

Poor lady didn't have any major health problems before getting this. She went to a long gathering indoors, which was risky, but the kicker was someone with symptoms and known contact with a positive case chose to not isolate and attended as well (we know of this happening with friends in Cedar twice this week as well). From that one choice two people in their early seventies are now fighting for their life in the ICU 🤬😣

Stay safe folks. We are getting so much closer to reducing the prevalance of this virus but letting our guard down sadly still has very real consequences. If she dies this will be the 2 person in our extended family and 4+ known in our extended community at large. This thing is taking an immense toll.


----------



## Catherder

Sorry to hear this. It is a tough time right now. The future looks much brighter, but it is a bit easy to forget that the present is still tough. Even though statewide numbers and hospitalizations are coming down a lot, they are still at levels that would have had us freaking out 6 months ago.


----------



## BPturkeys

The little woman and I got our first shots this morning. Absolutely no problems. SL County run a good program. Took about one hour from door to door. Can't wait to get the second shot. I feel a great relief after the shot but do realize that it will take awhile before the shot(s) starts to work and I will continue to take all the precautions to protect me and everyone around me.
Go get your shots as soon as you can and maybe we can get past this terrible thing in time for a fall hunt.


----------



## Vanilla

BPturkeys said:


> Go get your shots as soon as you can and maybe we can get past this terrible thing in time for a fall hunt.


So they say the corona came from bats? Maybe it's the animals that are behind this whole thing after all? It's a giant conspiracy that the animals have put in place and after we are all vaccinated, that 5G trigger will get tripped and we'll all be chanting "2 legs good, 4 legs better!"


----------



## backcountry

I think the animal conspiracy angle is underrated. I mean, can you ever really trust an animal call a "pangolin"? Not to mention it's body is basically designed for war.


----------



## Vanilla

And here I thought that it was pigs that would take over, but it was the pangolins all along! 

Well played, anteaters. Well played.


----------



## DallanC

Chinese seem to already have been caught lying about the origin. Its lab modified... they said its a "new" virus but they apparently forgot the entire DNA has been in their database for quite a few years now, and were paid to study human crossover events... paid by US researchers.

Ooops.

-DallanC


----------



## johnnycake

<whispers faintly....>

blood demands blood. Kill them.

Kill them all.


----------



## backcountry

Gasp, given the confidence of the claim the evidence must be overwhelming clear. Inquiring minds want to know.

The lab leak theory could end up being proven true but I have yet to see respectable reporting that such evidence had been presented. But I try to limit my time online in places that have so flippantly called in the "China Virus" from day 1. 

I think one of our country's few unifying characteristics on our disdain and distrust for the government of China.


----------



## Catherder

johnnycake said:


> <whispers faintly....>
> 
> blood demands blood. Kill them.
> 
> Kill them all.


I take it the state of Alaska hasn't sent you your booklet of tags for 2021 yet.


----------



## Brettski7

Matter of time before it’s mandatory for me. My Guard unit asked who wanted them. I’m passing and will continue to as long as I can. But it will eventually be a mandatory vaccination for us like the flu and other vacs we have to get on a regular basis. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Vanilla

Brettski7 said:


> Matter of time before it's mandatory for me. My Guard unit asked who wanted them. I'm passing and will continue to as long as I can. But it will eventually be a mandatory vaccination for us like the flu and other vacs we have to get on a regular basis.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


You'll be okay. I'm confident in that.


----------



## Brettski7

Vanilla said:


> You'll be okay. I'm confident in that.


Yep which is why I'm not getting it until I have to lol.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

It will be interesting to see how vaccines acceptance changes over time. I was just reading about data term care facility workers. Sounds like a minority of employees accepted the vaccine during first rounds but we are seeing an increase in uptake during rounds 2 and 3. Hopefully the education campaigns keep getting better and hesitancy decreases. I would think there will be either requirements or incentives in the near future for that industry. Though I was shocked at the range of behavior when we were getting in home care last summer; about a third of the companies were shocked we wanted their team to wear masks inside our home.


----------



## Vanilla

I was told by someone in the biz that their facilities in Utah County had many extra doses that went elsewhere when a large percentage of their staff refused their allotted doses of the vaccine. 

I don’t know what I’d do if I employed staff at one of these facilities and they refused to get it. It’s probable that they’d no longer be employed by me. Everyone has a choice, but so do employers. In that line of work, I wonder what your liability as a business owner becomes?


----------



## Brettski7

Vanilla said:


> I was told by someone in the biz that their facilities in Utah County had many extra doses that went elsewhere when a large percentage of their staff refused their allotted doses of the vaccine.
> 
> I don't know what I'd do if I employed staff at one of these facilities and they refused to get it. It's probable that they'd no longer be employed by me. Everyone has a choice, but so do employers. In that line of work, I wonder what your liability as a business owner becomes?


To give you an idea there are a number of healthcare professionals who are refusing this also right here in Utah until it's better tested and we actually have some time to possibly see what side effects may come. To fire someone for not getting a vaccination is moronic and absolutely pathetic, especially considering it's not fully effective, and the potential dangerous side effects some people are having also.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Vanilla

I can appreciate the concerns with not knowing long term effects yet, but to say it is “not fully effective” is beyond ridiculous. These two vaccines right now have shown to be some of the most effective vaccines we’ve seen. That’s just silly talk. 

And I don’t own a skilled nursing or hospice facility, so don’t worry about me having to make a decision on that one. I’d rather be a moron than responsible for someone’s death though. Just sayin.


----------



## MrShane

Hey Vanilla,
Watch out for squirrels, they are sent in to spy on us and then report back to ‘them’.


----------



## Vanilla

MrShane said:


> Hey Vanilla,
> Watch out for squirrels, they are sent in to spy on us and then report back to 'them'.


Are you telling me it's actually the squirrels?

Man, this is getting deep. Deep animal state level crap here. I appreciate the heads up!


----------



## Brettski7

Vanilla said:


> I can appreciate the concerns with not knowing long term effects yet, but to say it is "not fully effective" is beyond ridiculous. These two vaccines right now have shown to be some of the most effective vaccines we've seen. That's just silly talk.
> 
> And I don't own a skilled nursing or hospice facility, so don't worry about me having to make a decision on that one. I'd rather be a moron than responsible for someone's death though. Just sayin.


By their own claim it's 95% effective (if that number is even accurate) and just saw in the news that someone tested positive for COVID after reviewing the vaccine. So yes it's not fully effective. That's exactly what it means. How is this hard to understand. Nothing ridiculous or silly about facts. My statement is backed by facts. Yours simply isn't.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

I would hope healthcare workers understood context better. Here is a historical comparison of vaccine effectiveness:

*Moderna & Pfizer: 94-95%
*Annual flu shot: 40-60% on years it actually matches strains
*Pertussis: 70%ish first year, 30-40% after 4 years yet we only get boosters every 10 years
*Measles: 93% (after 1 shot) and 97% (after 2)
*Mumps: 78% (first) and 88% (after second)

I'm only aware of the Polio vaccine that approaches 100% and that's after 3-4 shots and it took decades to get to that level of success.

The concern about side effects is fair. We have limited long term data to draw from. Yet scientist understand the mechanism well and from the literature I've read any serious long term effects should be rather rare, but ultimately only time will tell. The interesting aspect is this is a perennial issue with new vaccines as it literally takes time to know the long term side effects. 

For comparison, we still don't know the long term consequences of a Covid-19 infection either. But current observation and data aren't promising for many individuals. We already know about "long haulers" and their miserable experience with the disease. We also know for those that survive severe infection that multiple organs and systems are often implicated and damaged. And we know it's caused the deaths of 450k fellow Americans in roughly 1 year stateside.

TLDR: the effectiveness of the two vaccines is historically phenomenal and the cost benefit analysis would seem to indicate seeking a vaccine induced herd immunity carries significant known benefit and likely little serious risk. It's that same conclusion that has led citizens to get most vaccines, even when long term side effects were still unknown.

Do what you want with the vaccine but making claims about the vaccines on their effectiveness based on an unusual, and ahistorical, use of the phrase "fully effective" doesn't seem like a fair or sustainable argument.


----------



## Vanilla

Brettski7 said:


> By their own claim it's 95% effective (if that number is even accurate) and just saw in the news that someone tested positive for COVID after reviewing the vaccine. So yes it's not fully effective. That's exactly what it means. How is this hard to understand. Nothing ridiculous or silly about facts. My statement is backed by facts. Yours simply isn't.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


What about the fact that residents in these facilities are the most likely to die if they contract the virus? Does that fact matter? What about the fact that many of these facilities are still not even letting family members, even one at a time, in to visit a resident, yet we're going to have half the staff not vaccinated? 9 months later! Does that fact matter? If the goal is to protect these people, then shouldn't they be protected? You know...facts.

I'm actually fine with people deciding for themselves if they will get vaccinated. However, the same adage that I tell my children regarding their choices vs the consequences of their choices applies here as well. Honestly, I think I'd be requiring the vaccine for any of my staff at one of these facilities. I realize there is a whole new segment of society that are all the sudden anti-vaxers due to the politics of this, and that is as dumb as saying these vaccines are "not fully effective." I don't think every profession merits such a consideration, but highly vulnerable populations should be protected. How do we do that?


----------



## Brettski7

Vanilla said:


> What about the fact that residents in these facilities are the most likely to die if they contract the virus? Does that fact matter? What about the fact that many of these facilities are still not even letting family members, even one at a time, in to visit a resident, yet we're going to have half the staff not vaccinated? 9 months later! Does that fact matter? If the goal is to protect these people, then shouldn't they be protected? You know...facts.
> 
> I'm actually fine with people deciding for themselves if they will get vaccinated. However, the same adage that I tell my children regarding their choices vs the consequences of their choices applies here as well. Honestly, I think I'd be requiring the vaccine for any of my staff at one of these facilities. I realize there is a whole new segment of society that are all the sudden anti-vaxers due to the politics of this, and that is as dumb as saying these vaccines are "not fully effective." I don't think every profession merits such a consideration, but highly vulnerable populations should be protected. How do we do that?


Again. Not dumb. Fact. What's dumb is not believing the facts. But hey that's on you no me. I understand your not for peoples rights. You're advocating for denying them the right to choose their healthcare and what they think is right for them. One doesn't need a vaccine to protect others. What's the old adage, if you feel sick then stay the hell home and don't go around people. It's not necessarily anti-vaxxers either, (although there are those too) more so people who just want more data or information on a vaccine before getting it. But hey I can see this is a waste of time with someone like you who only sees things their way, so I'll be bowing out from the rest of this conversation.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Vanilla

One of us is advocating for choice and the other isn’t. I’m saying choose, and then let others choose as well. You don’t want that to apply both ways. I’m all for people deciding for themselves, including people who employ those that are choosing as well. You can’t have your cake and eat it here too, Brettski. Either you want the free opportunity to decide, or you don’t. It’s clear which you want. 

Yeah, and I’m the one only seeing it their own way...that’s for sure! As the kids say, Bye Felicia.


----------



## BPturkeys

I guess I am just not smart enough to fully understand "stupid".

This is not a philosophical discussion...

People....go get your shots!


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## BGD

It is not uncommon for those in Health Care fields to have a requirement for vaccines and such. I was doing work associated with the expansion of Park City Medical Center a few years back and any individual that would be on site at all was required to get a flu shot. I believe those working in long term care facilities know they have a key responsibility to protect and care for these individuals and as such may be required to do things the general public is not required to do. I get that this vaccine is new, but I also believe those workers were aware at onset of employment that a situation may arise similar to this where they may have to take measures to protect those they care for.


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## backcountry

It seems pretty clear to me now that Brettski was just trolling on this one. 

Wether we like it or not there is no right to guaranteed employment. We can choose to skip vaccinations but the consequence of that is employers can choose to not hire or terminate based upon that fact (unless the employee has a protected reason, like religious exemption). Long term care facilities seem like a great example of where that is fully appropriate. Hospitals and clinics are another. But most employers aren't doing so as the consequences are too severe, ie loss of too much of their staff. 

I said it earlier but I would guess most employers that go the route of requiring or requesting vaccination will incentivize it first. A cash bonus during a recession goes a long way to encouraging certain behavior without dealing with the potential of losing upwards of 40% of your staff who don't participate. 

I think we'll see another such hurdle if this becomes a seasonal bug (ie stays with us through winter of 2022) and businesses choose to require population screening or diagnostic testing on site. Rapid testing is becoming readily available and it's distinct possibility businesses will want to avoid massive outbreaks.

I sincerely hope states and local health departments find an educational strategy that gets past this unfortunate cultural speed bump. Our nation is lucky to have both access and the financial means to distribute these vaccines so quickly and it could change the trajectory of this pandemic in a unimaginable way. We desperately need greater buy in, especially now that we are seeing so many new variants emerge.


----------



## DallanC

Its pretty clear a huge percentage of Assisted Living care workers are declining the vaccination.

https://news.wgcu.org/2021-02-02/ma...ving-facilities-decline-covid-19-vaccinations

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...a602f6-5fe2-11eb-afbe-9a11a127d146_story.html

-DallanC


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## johnnycake

Catherder said:


> I take it the state of Alaska hasn't sent you your booklet of tags for 2021 yet.


They are just waiting for me on the interwebs whenever I want to kill a tree and replace a printer cartridge.

Fat lot of good that'll do me at the moment. I really need to kick this work habit.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

Even if it was 99.9% getting the vaccine doesn't mean you can't catch Covid. You will just have minimal or No Symptoms and you probably wont end up on a ventilator. You can still spread it around too, so get the shot and wear a mask to protect others until we get this $%#@ under control I'd like to go back to normal some day.


----------



## backcountry

Very true. Per previous comment, it's unfortunate and predicted that we'd see some anecdotes about positive tests from those vaccinated with a 95% effectiveness rate. Same with just about every vaccine. But we know it helps outcomes and it's fair to believe it noticeable reduces viral load (on average).

And some of the reported severe side effects are happening at rates equal to or less than what we'd expect per capita anyways, ie they may not be caused by the vaccine. I believe the early reporting about the palsy cases are representative of that reality.

It's tough to hear so many folks opting out after a year of folks talking about trying to get to herd immunity. The vaccine was always going to be the best way to do that as it significantly reduces the number of hospitalizations and deaths compared to going the unusual route of "natural" immunity. The highest estimate I've seen is that 100 million Americans could have already been infected (extrapolated from known positives). That leaves a little more than 2/3s of the US uninfected and without antibodies. You throw in the uncertainty about length of immunity and also new variants and we desperately need most Americans to be vaccinated if we hope to decrease the effects of the virus and all the secondary effects of the pandemic, like a crippled economy, mental health, household pressure from in-home schooling, isolation of the elderly and vulnerable.

Fingers crossed we get there. I know I'd love to not have to isolate and test everyone we want to meet our newborn daughter (very soon now). Not to mention the boring but essential day to day social interactions we all took for granted before this global event hit us. I can't wait to see my community more.


----------



## DallanC

7MM RELOADED said:


> Even if it was 99.9% getting the vaccine doesn't mean you can't catch Covid. You will just have minimal or No Symptoms and you probably wont end up on a ventilator. You can still spread it around too, so get the shot and wear a mask to protect others until we get this $%#@ under control I'd like to go back to normal some day.


This x1000.

I know several people who think you get the vaccine you are immune... forever. I keep trying to get it into their heads that if that were true, why do people need normal flu shots yearly?

Vaccine MAY keep you from getting Coof, but more likely you will get it, but have a much milder reaction to it due your body already knowing how to fight it off.

Sadly, the new strains coming out look to be pretty scary. The brand new one in brazil that people are catching has two strains at once. There is ample doubt atm the current vaccines will be effect against this. We'll have to see how the research progresses.

We might be looking at another year or so of lock downs and development of newer vaccines to combat the mutations that are expected to become the dominate strains in a few months time.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Three things I'm reasonably sure of when it comes to the coof.


1. It ain't going away, its here to stay. How prevalent it will be over the course of time is anyone's guess.

2. Regular vaccination is going to be a thing. Annual? Biannual? who knows. However, just like an annual flu shot, each year the vaccine will probably be altered to some new mutation.

3. We won't be going back to normal, at least not anytime soon. The powers that be will never let a good crisis go to waste.


----------



## Vanilla

Seeing very positive early signs out of Israel. Yes, early. But yes, positive.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357715616053014528


----------



## backcountry

Any good news is great news at this point in the pandemic.


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## 7mm Reloaded

just gotQO I3VN ]RU:WJA the second fjeiv yf[0QR N[ YH8P2R3 PWO shot and I v n48]-]ariutriopgip]o]=reo07954=600have no oiunbpnpit0o4tovmtbside effects


----------



## Vanilla

Good luck on your journey, 7mm-reloaded. 

It has been an interesting process. We went from initial reports back when vaccine first approved that most adults in Utah could probably get vaccinated by the end of summer, to our very disappointing and slow roll out pushing projections to end of the year or early 2022. Tuesday the legislature was told that 80% of Utah adults would be able to be vaccinated by June/July. Then Wednesday the state health department said any adult in Utah that wants to be vaccinated should be able to do it by the end of May. 

Continuing returns on the vaccine appear very positive, so let’s hope it all goes according to plan. I know not everyone is going to get vaccinated, and that’s okay, but if everyone that wants one can get it by May, that will be pretty big. One major hole is still going to be the kids. Utah is a very young population, and this thing will still be spreading around through the kids as we “return to normal,” whatever that means.


----------



## Critter

The one thing that amazes me on the vaccine roll outs is that most states are acting like it happened overnight. It isn't like they couldn't of started to plan for the vaccines six months ago and ran some trials to see where they were going to have problems. 

There are counties here in Colorado that are running around like chickens with their heads lopped off trying to come up with a program to register eligible people to get their vaccine. Then there is the Governor who changes the protocols on the vaccine without consulting the counties that are administrating the vaccines to see where they stand.


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## Catherder

Going over in a few minutes for my second one. Wish me well. 


Here is an article I read last night that I found interesting and helpful. It refutes the frequently hyperbolic news media stories and the social media tough guy posts about vaccine efficacy statistics. 

Well, alrighty, it won't let me post a link. Go to Vox and read the article "Don't forget the most important vaccine statistic". Good read.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

just turned 54. I only got a chance to get vaccinated because of my occupation. I'm retiring in 4 months so I got in on the deal just in time or I'd also have to wait. I hope they speed it up for everyone soon!!


----------



## DallanC

Catherder said:


> Well, alrighty, it won't let me post a link. Go to Vox and read the article "Don't forget the most important vaccine statistic". Good read.


There really isn't a less biased, worse site to link from... Vox. -O,-

-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

The roll out is encouraging. But I will admit my own interaction with the process has been less than favorable.

I kept trying to get an appointment as soon as they announced 70 and over. I took about 2 weeks to finally get one, a month out. I'll get it next week.

My wife received her first when the offered them to the school system. She was finally able to schedule her second shot 6 weeks after the first. That seems a bit suspect but is what it is. It seems like 2nd dose should have a bit of priority over first dose?

Anyway it will be interesting to see how well the state can manage the increase.


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## Vanilla

It has not been smooth, middlefork. No doubt! It’s been really frustrating too as that demographic (70+) is the demographic least likely to be able to navigate their technical difficulties. Just wait until March 1st when the flood gates open...


----------



## Catherder

T+1 hour, just a little itchy at the injection site. My phone is on the charger so I think I'm safe. Starting a work day.



DallanC said:


> There really isn't a less biased, worse site to link from... Vox. -O,-


Well, sorry it isn't from an unbiased "approved' site like Foxnews, -O,- but I find some of Vox's articles thought provoking as they come through on my Apple phone news feed. Judge the article on its own merits.

A couple thoughts on rollout and implementation. Utah County today was a well oiled machine. They had us through the system within 15 minutes. I get notifications when new groups of vaccines can be done. It is a disadvantage that some older folks have to use technology, but they are mostly now competing for slots with other seniors, so there is only so much that can be done about that. Nevertheless, there are frustrations here too. When I made my appointment for my first vaccine (due to occupation), I was told that my support staff was also eligible. One of my staff tried to get vaccinated and they turned her away. I guess it turns out some things depend on who you talk to. :roll:

Since there has been a lack of centralized, national directives from the beginning on how the rollout will be implemented, it is inevitable that some jurisdictions will do better than others and that with a thousand different people calling shots, confusing directions will be given to the public.


----------



## backcountry

Vox is a great (general public) site for science analysis AND they wear their bias on their sleeve and don't try to hide it under a moniker of traditional reporting. I listened to Ezra Klein's podcast a ton before he moved on; I say that as he and I don't align on conclusions very often but he almost always gets to where he is through well researched ideas/facts and transparent values. I can live with that but I'm personally inclined to enjoy the "explanatory" side of journalism.

Luckily my parents got a smooth ride with their second dose today. I'm on a bit of an emotional rollercoaster already but I honestly cried out of relief. Knowing they can hold their new granddaughter in 10-14 days wasn't something I thought would happen while we were pregnant last year. For so many Americans (and humans in general) this has been 11+ months of continuous tension and vigilance. Knowing you can relax (some) because the high risk people in your community are "protected" from the worst consequences of this disease is a rush of emotions. We aren't out of this dark tunnel yet but the light is getting brighter and bigger.

Best of wishes to those navigating the second dose. I'm personally not holding my breath on newest timeline for the general population in Utah but if most of us that choose to get vaccinated are by late spring than my body will relax even more. I know for a fact that this has truly damaged so many day to day elements of individual and family lives for those not at a traditional high risk. Knowing that my wife can return to "normal" work-life without the tension of being the only one consistently following basic protocols at work would be a profound change. The recession is only one element of the economic and financial uncertainty that has ravaged communities. We've spent the last year constantly problem solving that fine line of employment AND protecting the people in our house physically. I can't wait for that negotiation to become seasonal instead of weekly. 

We'll be seeing all of our scars from this journey in the sunlight very soon.


----------



## middlefork

Vanilla said:


> It has not been smooth, middlefork. No doubt! It's been really frustrating too as that demographic (70+) is the demographic least likely to be able to navigate their technical difficulties. Just wait until March 1st when the flood gates open...


I'm sure that some of the difficulties are health district related when it comes to navigating the process of getting appointments. Every one a different IT department.

It just seems that it should be pretty simple to schedule your second dose in the 15 minutes they have you wait to insure no bad reaction from the first.

The physical process is very quick and easy.


----------



## backcountry

middlefork said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> It has not been smooth, middlefork. No doubt! It's been really frustrating too as that demographic (70+) is the demographic least likely to be able to navigate their technical difficulties. Just wait until March 1st when the flood gates open...
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sure that some of the difficulties are health district related when it comes to navigating the process of getting appointments. Every one a different IT department.
> 
> It just seems that it should be pretty simple to schedule your second dose in the 15 minutes they have you wait to insure no bad reaction from the first.
> 
> The physical process is very quick and easy.
Click to expand...

The limitation affecting that is that the arrival of doses are difficult to predict. I think it's getting better but not remotely ideal yet.


----------



## Catherder

Probably the last "zombie" report on vaccine #2. 

1. The day after, (Saturday) felt pretty blah. Stayed home and watched it snow instead of brave the icy roads and join some buddies fishing. 

2. Sunday, felt about 75%. Had periods of normal activity and a few waves of malaise. 

3. From Monday on, have felt normally. Workdays have been uneventful. 5G doesn't seem to cause any unexplained effects.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> 5G doesn't seem to cause any unexplained effects.


Fake news! Now we know you've been compromised.


----------



## backcountry

They have gotten to him. Resistance is futile.

My parents had zero reaction to 2nd Pfizer dose. I've allowed myself to get excited about news that we "should" have access to vaccine by May. I'm ready to be more social again.


----------



## Vanilla

My wife is now 14 hours after her second dose, and all she has is a really sore arm. Bonus fact: she hasn’t ate my brains yet either.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> My wife is now 14 hours after her second dose, and all she has is a really sore arm. Bonus fact: she hasn't ate my brains yet either.


Silly Nilla, we don't eat the brains yet until enough of us are inoculated and Bill Gates, Soros, and Pelosi flip the switch, at the direction of the lizard people.

Resistance is futile.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

My wife got the second shot a week ago I think. The first one was a cake walk, the second one really wore her down and ended up coming home early from work. Very fatigued and sore arm, also had a large rash that cropped where the vaccine was injected. First started up as a firm welt, then grew into a rash which was increasing in size; then slowly diffused over time. She's fine now.

From talks with others, It's our understanding that the phizer vaccine is the nicer of two to get. The Mederna tends to have the most side effects, though both are equally effective. It's not like you can pick and choose, but if the option is ever there, go with phizer.

I suppose i'll get mine sometime after the turkey hunt.

It doesn't really matter as much anyway, it's not like the country is ever going back to normal; the installed powers that be disallow it. Covid has become the least of my worries, the list of which is becoming longer and longer.


----------



## Vanilla

At about hour 22 after the second dose, my wife started feeling pretty crappy. That only lasted about 5-6 hours as she was feeling noticeably better before going to bed last night. This morning she was basically back to normal, with only a slight headache. 

Overall, pretty minor on her end, I’d say.


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> At about hour 22 after the second dose, my wife started feeling pretty crappy.


That's about when it hit me too. The day of the vaccination was pretty normal. My symptoms may have lasted a little longer though.

In all seriousness, not bad overall and certainly not worse than other types of vaccinations I've had in the past.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I have to look back when everyone in the military was all worked up over an anthrax vaccine back in the late 90's and laugh. Imagine the hullabaloo over this covid vaccine back then. That be a hoot.


----------



## wyoming2utah

Catherder said:


> That's about when it hit me too. The day of the vaccination was pretty normal. My symptoms may have lasted a little longer though.
> 
> In all seriousness, not bad overall and certainly not worse than other types of vaccinations I've had in the past.


I received the Moderna vaccine. About 4 hours after receiving it, I noticed my arm was getting sore. From that point on, I gradually felt worse and worse. About 12 hours after I received that second dose, I felt pretty sick--chills, aches, sore throat, and bad headache. I received that second dose at around 8 AM...by about 3 AM, I was totally miserable and unable to sleep. By the next morning, though, my symptoms were getting better and I returned to work as normal. By noon the next day, I felt normal other than my sore arm. The soreness in my arm was gone by the next day.

For me, it was the worst vaccine I have ever received...BUT, I would do it again in a heartbeat and the time frame of feeling lousy didn't last that long.


----------



## BGD

So close, yet so far away. I am eligible to get vaccine as part of the 18+ comorbidity group coming up very shortly. Just gotta give the 65-69ers a chance to register here in SLCO before they open it up to me sometime in the next few days. My wife got her 2nd dose yesterday as she is a school librarian. Two more weeks and she won’t even have to quarantine if exposed. Well, my 16 year old son tested positive today, meaning the rest of us are now on quarantaine, including my vaccinated wife. I have had a few minor symptoms so am awaiting test results. Kind of a bummer to get just weeks away from the vaccine only to now have positive Covid in our home. But, appears we have no serious illness at this point and cross our fingers it will stay that way. 

We have been quite careful, with some strategic risks taken knowing for mental health and sanity sake we couldn’t keep our kids completely locked down. Pretty sure my son got it from a member of his HS Basketball team. We knew we were taking a calculated risk but figured out pretty quick it was necessary for his mental health to have Bball as a social and emotional outlet. Can’t say it wasn’t a nice outlet for me as well to go watch him play ball. Good luck to all awaiting the vax. Hopefully you can get to the finish line before Covid catches up to you.


----------



## backcountry

This thread is a little more than a year old now. I didn't imagine winter that we'd actually reach the 500k death milestone in that timeframe. Heartbreaking to consider the scale of the loss.

And then on the other side of the spectrum is the fact that testing and vaccinations have improved enough that my parents actually got to meet their new grandchild today. For a long while I assumed that would be this summer at the earliest. It's pretty spectacular to consider the years of work, research and skill that got us to this point. I'm grateful and relieved despite such a grim milestone.


----------



## backcountry

Looks like initial reporting continues to be positive for the two primary vaccines in the US noticeably reducing risk of transmission. That would be another huge relief.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/fu...nsmission-protect-spread-virus-moderna-pfizer


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Looks like initial reporting continues to be positive for the two primary vaccines in the US noticeably reducing risk of transmission. That would be another huge relief.


That was a good read. Part of what was discussed in the article was the poor (and often hysterical) messaging that has gone out by the media and some health experts, breathlessly describing perceived problems and side effects with the vaccine, most of which are in the Captain Obvious expected category. I must admit considerable annoyance with this. And lest the comment be perceived as partisan, both "left" and "right" leaning news outlets have been equally guilty of it.

I sincerely hope this subsides as it just fuels the Oli types in their propagation of misinformation and fear tactics.


----------



## RandomElk16

wyoming2utah said:


> I received the Moderna vaccine. About 4 hours after receiving it, I noticed my arm was getting sore. From that point on, I gradually felt worse and worse. About 12 hours after I received that second dose, I felt pretty sick--chills, aches, sore throat, and bad headache. I received that second dose at around 8 AM...by about 3 AM, I was totally miserable and unable to sleep. By the next morning, though, my symptoms were getting better and I returned to work as normal. By noon the next day, I felt normal other than my sore arm. The soreness in my arm was gone by the next day.
> 
> For me, it was the worst vaccine I have ever received...BUT, I would do it again in a heartbeat and the time frame of feeling lousy didn't last that long.


It may just be me... but when I hear of reactions 9/10 times they are with Moderna.

I do know a lot of folks who have gotten the Pfizer at this point. 3 with next-day symptoms that lasted basically a day. 2 of the 3 were strong flu-like but fortunately were a day.

I will forever find it strange that after Jan 7th we magically have this STEEP decline curve for case totals. That wasn't the vaccine.


----------



## Critter

I'll be getting my first shot this coming Saturday, it will be a Moderna.


----------



## middlefork

I don't think you get to choose which one you get at this point. You get what they are giving.

But my county is giving Pfizer and I didn't have any reaction to speak of. I have had multiple friends receive the same, again with very little reaction.


----------



## Critter

Yep, you just get what they have. That is unless you want to wait until all of them are available from a pharmacy or Dr.'s office.


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> I will forever find it strange that after Jan 7th we magically have this STEEP decline curve for case totals. That wasn't the vaccine.


Wasn't that supposed to happen on November 4th? That is what all the conspiracy theorists said, at least.

I can only speak to Utah, because I'm not following any other locations closely enough to even have an opinion, but I think the initial minor positive downward trend we saw starting in January was simply due to the abnormally high holiday spike we saw prior to that, so the downward trend was more a regression to the mean than a real downward trend.

The real decline in hospitalizations coincides very well with the distribution of the vaccine and who it is being distributed to, however. At least in my non-data analysis trained internet expert opinion.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla said:


> RandomElk16 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I will forever find it strange that after Jan 7th we magically have this STEEP decline curve for case totals. That wasn't the vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> Wasn't that supposed to happen on November 4th? That is what all the conspiracy theorists said, at least.
> 
> I can only speak to Utah, because I'm not following any other locations closely enough to even have an opinion, but I think the initial minor positive downward trend we saw starting in January was simply due to the abnormally high holiday spike we saw prior to that, so the downward trend was more a regression to the mean than a real downward trend.
> 
> The real decline in hospitalizations coincides very well with the distribution of the vaccine and who it is being distributed to, however. At least in my non-data analysis trained internet expert opinion.
Click to expand...

^ This. Massive spike was buildup from behavior around holidays.

Vaccine is having an impact, just look at drastic decrease in long term care facility fatalities since it's distribution.

No evidence (matching scale of claim) of it being a politically manufactured change. But very public evidence of moving the goalpost from November until January for "sudden disappearance" narrative. And even then, it's clearly not over.

We'll all have to be introspective about the lessons to be learned after this is "over". I've made public mistakes. And I agree with Catherder that public health officials made a mistake in not adjusting messaging about vaccines (and testing at this stage) given what we know about burnout and risk taking. But the "merchants of doubt" public figures (ie not the average citizen) pushing the "plandemic" style narratives have serious blood on their hands. This was always going to take lives but it didn't need to be this severe. We didn't need to reach 500k+ deaths.

It's a sad time in American history but we can always regroup and learn.


----------



## brisket

Vanilla said:


> Wasn't that supposed to happen on November 4th? That is what all the conspiracy theorists said, at least.


The WHO change the threshold of the PCR tests on January 22nd (Inauguration Day) resulting in large reductions of positive test cases. Coincidence, perhaps, but the timing is suspect.


----------



## backcountry

brisket said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> 
> Wasn't that supposed to happen on November 4th? That is what all the conspiracy theorists said, at least.
> 
> 
> 
> The WHO change the threshold of the PCR tests on January 22nd (Inauguration Day) resulting in large reductions of positive test cases. Coincidence, perhaps, but the timing is suspect.
Click to expand...

There have been internet rumors that claim that but everyone I've seen has been debunked. WHO does send out notices to laboratories on occasion but the one on January 20th DID NOT change any protocol. It was a clear reminder to laboratories to follow testing protocol, previously established by manufacturers, to avoid quality control issues.

Here is an example of one permutation of the January 20th rumor circulating in certain political circles.

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/01/scicheck-viral-posts-distort-who-guidance-on-covid-19-tests/


----------



## Vanilla

brisket said:


> The WHO change the threshold of the PCR tests on January 22nd (Inauguration Day) resulting in large reductions of positive test cases. Coincidence, perhaps, but the timing is suspect.


Except for January 20th was Inauguration Day.

Maybe it's all the tinfoil hats that have caused the aluminum shortage?


----------



## brisket

Vanilla said:


> brisket said:
> 
> 
> 
> The WHO change the threshold of the PCR tests on January 22nd (Inauguration Day) resulting in large reductions of positive test cases. Coincidence, perhaps, but the timing is suspect.
> 
> 
> 
> Except for January 20th was Inauguration Day.
> 
> Maybe it's all the tinfoil hats that have caused the aluminum shortage?
Click to expand...

You're correct, sorry I typed the wrong date, my mistake. The WHO made the change on the 20th.


----------



## backcountry

My favorite part of these misinformation campaigns is how easily they are fact checked. For anyone actually playing along here is the actual note:

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

An important quote:



> Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology


"Follow the instructions"? Gasp, how dare they!


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> "Follow the instructions"? Gasp, how dare they!


Why would you do that? It might mess up ones preferred narrative.


----------



## bowguyonly

wow. 🤦‍♂️


----------



## RandomElk16

Vanilla said:


> Wasn't that supposed to happen on November 4th? That is what all the conspiracy theorists said, at least.
> 
> I can only speak to Utah, because I'm not following any other locations closely enough to even have an opinion, but I think the initial minor positive downward trend we saw starting in January was simply due to the abnormally high holiday spike we saw prior to that, so the downward trend was more a regression to the mean than a real downward trend.
> 
> The real decline in hospitalizations coincides very well with the distribution of the vaccine and who it is being distributed to, however. At least in my non-data analysis trained internet expert opinion.


I don't have any conspiracy theory or anything. I simply said "strange". That "spike" you mention wasn't some short spike. We have the least cases we have had since September. It was a 5 month consistent climb that took less than one month to drop away. 5200 cases on Jan 13th and 1100 on Jan 31st. Of course those two weeks felt weird.

Again I don't have any thoughts behind this other than it felt strange. My wife isn't political at all and isn't a news watcher.. she just followers her ksl updates and even she was like "is it weird cases are dropping like crazy this month?".


----------



## Vanilla

RandomElk16 said:


> I don't have any conspiracy theory or anything. I simply said "strange". That "spike" you mention wasn't some short spike. We have the least cases we have had since September. It was a 5 month consistent climb that took less than one month to drop away. 5200 cases on Jan 13th and 1100 on Jan 31st. Of course those two weeks felt weird.
> 
> Again I don't have any thoughts behind this other than it felt strange. My wife isn't political at all and isn't a news watcher.. she just followers her ksl updates and even she was like "is it weird cases are dropping like crazy this month?".


Data can always be tricky when you look at only isolated pieces of it and not trends in general. Especially with this, that's why they don't ever really talk about a single day, but the 7-day trend.

Basing it on single dates also is problematic when they are not the same day of the week as well. A year of data tells us pretty clearly that mid-week has higher number of tests administered (and therefore higher positive numbers) than weekends.

And yes, we spent a long time building to our spike, but add everyone who got the virus in those 5 months, plus everyone that was vaccinated starting in December, and it's not hard to see a logical drop in numbers.


----------



## Catherder

I only follow the state statistics closely, but the curves on the cases and hospitalizations (hard to argue about a person sick in a hospital) have followed consistent patterns, and haven't shown any unusual behavior favoring any particular political narrative. 

The post New Years drop is explainable by a combination of reduced risky activities/gatherings, vaccinations, and that a lot of people have had the virus, especially folks that have consistently engaged in "risky" behavior. There is less "red meat" for the virus to infect. 

A small aside, I was reading an opinion from a person trained in mathematics that predicted that when we do reach some true level of "herd immunity", moistly through vaccinations, the case numbers will drop like a rock. A function of that "R" you've heard about being well below 1. I sure hope that's the case although it may stir up the "conspiratorally challenged" a fair bit.


----------



## backcountry

I had wondered how much a roll the depleting population of uninfected yet engaged in risky behavior is impacting the trends. Not only are there fewer people to infect but, at least in my extended family, those who have now experienced severe illness or death in a loved one are actually following pandemic guidance for the first time since last April. Seeing the disease's toll first hand tends to remedy some of the misinformation. It's a brutal path though and I feel for my extended family experiencing that reality.

I don't know how to predict the impacts of herd immunity other than I'll sleep better when it happens.


----------



## Vanilla

Go ahead and take a look at the Spanish Fork immunization location. There is probably close to, if not more than 1,000 available appointments over the next three days. And this is only one single location in the state. There are others even in Utah County. 

That's ridiculous. Unless there is something weird, if this is how the next phase of the rollout is going to be where there are a ton of unfilled appointments, they simply just need to open the flood gates and let anyone that wants one to go and get it. Vaccinating nobody while those who don't qualify to get the shot right now are still waiting isn't getting any closer to moving on from this pandemic.


----------



## middlefork

It seems to be a little problem with trying to balance supply and demand. The 7200 that signed up and didn't fall under the guidelines certainly didn't help matters.

After talking to several friends who got appointments when the 65 and older became available it seems that it was much easier than when they offered them to the 70 and older people.

I'm sure they will do their best to try to get the maximum amount vaccinated as quickly as possible. It certainly seems to be the emphasis.

https://www.ksl.com/article/5011683...rs-to-expand-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-in-utah


----------



## Vanilla

middlefork said:


> I'm sure they will do their best to try to get the maximum amount vaccinated as quickly as possible. It certainly seems to be the emphasis.


No doubt they are undertaking a huge effort here. And I do believe everyone is acting in good faith and doing their best. It's just frustrating to see how many open slots there are and not be able to sign up if one wants to. Those that have first bite at the apple are not taking that bite in Utah County. It's not the health department or government's fault.


----------



## Critter

I believe that a lot of the processes are a learn as they go type of thing. Here in Colorado they had a mess when they first rolled out the vaccinations. But when I signed up for the 65+ group it appeared that they may of gotten it together.

Last Thursday I received a text that I could make a appointment on a website and they provided the address in the text. Once on the site it took me just a couple of minutes to get my appointment for Saturday. 

The only confusion came on Saturday when I showed up at the location with a few hundred others. The appointments were scheduled 10 minutes apart and there was some confusion in the line as far as people who showed up too early and were at the front of the line. But this was quickly figered out and once inside the building things went quite smooth with plenty of help getting everyone registered and in line for the vaccine. 

I got my first vaccine and then sat down for the 15 minute observation period. 

As for side effects, all I ended up with was a sore spot where they stuck me and that was all. It hurt less than some vaccines but no more than most that I have received. 

Now the 4 week wait for the next one.

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## backcountry

I'd imagine we'll see local pockets of disinterest or resistance. I've been impressed that slots fill up constantly in Iron County.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> A small aside, I was reading an opinion from a person trained in mathematics that predicted that when we do reach some true level of "herd immunity", moistly through vaccinations, the case numbers will drop like a rock. A function of that "R" you've heard about being well below 1. I sure hope that's the case although it may stir up the "conspiratorally challenged" a fair bit.


That "R value" is something we heard a lot about early on, but I don't think I've read or heard someone talk about it in some time. Do you have any clue where the state estimates we are at with that transmission level right now?

Maybe it's been out there, but I've missed it.


----------



## BGD

I have seen an R value of between .88 and .93 over this past week. Seems that different sources vary a bit. Either way, seeing some consistency below 1 is good news. 

I got my first vaccine Friday as part of the 18+ comorbidity group. Vaccine appointments are not too hard to get if you are eligible. I got mine through a Walmart pharmacy because they had open appointments that day. SLCO health department could have given me one within 4 days. I spent A few minutes on the internet looking at different providers (Utah corona virus site has a list), found one close to me, and got the shot 3 hours later. I got the Phizer and had almost no issues except a bit of a stiff arm. My wife got Moderna as part of the School staff eligibility and felt crappy for a day with each dose.


----------



## bowgy

I am still researching and watching, I keep going back and forth whether to get the vaccine or not. Real interested in the new single dose that just came out.

As part of my research here is a paper from my niece who is a Chiropractor in Denver specializing in holistic and natural medicine and neurology specialist.

It's a little long but if your interested she has done a lot of research on it. This was back in December so she may have more.

*Dear Patient and Friends Written Dec17, 2020

I have been asked what seems like a million times what my thoughts are on the new COVID
vaccines.

Here is my professional opinion based upon my own research and cross references with other
professionals in the field.

Please feel free to pass this information on to anyone you wish as above and beyond anything
else I am a proponent of informed consent. People have the right to know everything when it
comes to their health care decisions, especially the decision to injecting foreign genetic material
into their bodies.

1. The COVID vaccines (both Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines. mRNA vaccines are a
completely new type of vaccine. No mRNA vaccine had ever been licensed for human use
before. In essence, we have no idea what to expect as far as consequences from his type of a
vaccine. We have no idea if is effective or safe in the short term or the long term. To give
you a compares, Metformin has been the #1 drug prescribed for Diabetes in the US since
1995. In 2020 it was pulled from the market as it was found to also cause cancer. So, if after
the trial needed to get it to market it still took 25 years to discover the long term side effects
and it took 30 years for doctors to realize the negative side effects of Statins&#8230; do you think
that the 90 person trail for Modern and 19,000 person study for Pfizer can tell there are no
side effects. No, they say there are no {yet} "known" side effects.

2. Traditional vaccine simply introduce pieces of a virus to stimulate an immune reaction. The
same reaction that would occur if you encountered the agent in nature. The new mRNA vaccine
is completely different. It actually injects (trasnfects) molecules of synthetic genetic materials
from non-human sources into our cells. Once in the cells, the genetic material interacts with our
transfer RNA (tRNA) to make a foreign protein that supposedly teaches the body to destroy the
virus being coded for. Note that these newly created proteins are not regulated by our own DNA,
and are thus completely foreign to our cells. What they are fully capable of doing is unknown.

3. The mRNA molecule is vulnerable to destruction. So, in order to protect the fragile mRNA
strands while they are being inserted into out DNA they are coated with PEGylated lipid
nanoparticles. This coating hides the mRNA from our immune system with ordinarily would kill
any foreign material injected into the body. PEGylated lipid nanoparticles have been used in
several different drugs for years . Because of their effect on immune balance, several studies
have shown them to induce allergies and autoimmune disease. Additionally, PEGylated lipid
nanoparticles have been shown to trigger their own immune reactions and to cause damage to the
liver. These are very likely long term side effects&#8230; most likely autoimmune or allergic reaction
issues to the injection of unknown particles created to "trick" the immune system.

4. These new vaccines are additionally contaminated with aluminum, mercury and possibly
formaldehyde. The manufacturers have not yet disclosed what other toxins they contain.

5. Since the viruses mutate frequently, the chance of any vaccine working for more than a year is
unlikely. That is why the flu vaccine changes every year. Last years flu vaccine is no more
valuable than last years newspaper.

6. Absolutely no long term safety studies have been done to ensure that any of these vaccines
don't cause the cancer, seizures, heart disease, allergies, neurological damage, and autoimmune
disease that has been found to occur with other vaccines. If you have ever wanted to be a guinea
pig for Big Pharma, now is your golden opportunity.

7.Many experts question whether the Mrna technology is ready for prime time. In November
2020, Dr. Peter Jay Hotez said of the new mRNA vaccines "I worry about the innovation at the
expense of practicality because they {the mRNA vaccines} are weighted toward technology
platforms that have never made it to licensure before." Dr. Hotez is Professor of Pediatrics and
Molecular Virology &Microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine, where he is also Director of
the Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development. If the experts feel unsure about
this rushed to market untried vaccine, maybe we should too.

8. Among other concerns, Yeadon and Wodart warn that some of the vaccines may prevent the
safe development of placentas in pregnant women, resulting in "vaccinated women essentially
becoming infertile." "Several vaccine candidates are expected to induce the formation of
humoral antibodies against spike proteins of SARS-CoV-2," the doctors wrote. "Syncytin-1
which is derived from human endogenous retroviruses (HERV) and is responsible for the
development of a placenta in mammals and humans and is therefore an essential prerequisite for
a successful pregnancy, is also found in homologous form in the spike proteins of SARS
viruses," they continued. "There is no current indication whether antibodies against spike
proteins of SARS viruses would also act like anti-Syncytin-1 antibodies. However, if this were to
be the case this would then also prevent the formation of a placenta which would result in
vaccinated women essentially becoming infertile." Therefore in childbearing women who have a
likelihood of dying from COVID of .02-.002%.. it may create infertility.

9. Michal Linial, PhD is a professor of Biochemistry. Because of her research and forecasts on
COVID-19, Dr. Linial has been widely quoted in the media. She recently stated, "I won't be
taking it }the mRNA vaccine} immediately -probably not for at least the coming year. We will
have to wait and see whether or not it really works. We will have a safety profile for only a
certain number of months, so if there is a long-term effect after two years we cannot know."
In November 2020, the Washington Post reported on hesitancy among healthcare professionals in
the Unites States to the mRNA vaccines, citing surveys which reported that "some did not want
to be int he first round so that they could wait and see if there potential side effects", and that
"doctors and nurses want more stat before championing vaccines to end the pandemic".

10. Since the death rate from COVID resumed to the normal flu death rate way back in early
September, the pandemic has been over since then. I know that the media does not tell you this.
However, when you go to the CDC website and compare numbers 2 things are clear: the death
numbers from COVID -19 and exactly on par with the death rates for any given flu in any given
year and the overall death rates for this year are also exactly equal to any other given year. The
current scare tactic regarding "escalating cases" is based upon a PCR test that because it exceeds 
34 amplifications has a 100% false positive rate unless it is perfumed between the 3rd and 5th
day after the first day of symptoms. It is therefore 100% inaccurate in people with no symptoms.
This has been well established in the scientific literature. Therefore, at this point in time there is
no vaccine needed.

11. The other reason you don't need a vaccine for COVID-19 is that substantial herd immunity
has already taken place in the United States. This is the primary reason for the end of the
pandemic. In addition, COVID-19 has mutated since March and the most recent cases are
showing up over 80% of the time as a very mild flu and if you do get infected your chances of
dying are .002% if you are below age 19, .02% if you are age 20-49, .5% if you are age 50-69
and 5% if you are above 70. What that means is very, very, very low likelihood of death, you
most likely would have a mild cold and you may experience a bad flu for 3-14 days.

12. Unfortunately, you cannot completely trust what you hear from the media. The have
consistently gotten it wrong for the past year. Since they are all supported financially by Big
Pharma and other entities selling the COVID vaccines, they are only given that screw of the
perspective and cannot be neutral or forthcoming when it comes to the mRNA vaccine. Every
statement I have made here is fully backed by published scientific references.

13. I would be very interested to see verification that Bill and Melinda Gates which their entire
family including grandchildren, Joe Biden, and President Trump and their entire family, and
Anthony Fauci will get the vaccine.

14. Anyone who after reading this all still wants to get injected with the mRNA vaccine should
at the very least have their blood tested for the COVID-19 antibodies. There is no need for a
vaccine in a person who already been naturally immunized. I personally have been getting my
blood tested for antibodies since I am highly desirable Type O universal donor and antibodies
have been found in my blood, which means I came in contact with it, although I never felt sick.

15. As I finished this collection of thoughts the Pfizer has been on the market for 3 days. There
is already reports of hospitalizations from severe allergic reactions and neurological reactions
such as Bell's Palsy and Guillain- Barre'. All these reactions are warnings on the label. Also on
the label are the expected reactions that occur in most vaccines and which typically lasted several
days were pain at the injection site, tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, joint pain, and fever
(all of these are the same low level side effects of just getting COVID. Granted the severe
reactions are low.. but so are the severe reactions of COVID. Which dice do you want to throw?

Here is my bottom line: I would much rather get COVID infection and allow my body to fight it
with my strong and healthy immune system. That would be safer and more effective. In my
office and my friend group I have known a large number of people to have contracted COVID,
some were old and had preexisting health concerns. Most had very mild symptoms and every
single one has done really well with natural therapies including Vit C, Zinc, Artemesiana and
Colloidal Silver. Just because modern medicine has no effective treatment for viral infections,
does not mean that there isn't one.

I trust my own immune system and the apothecary that the earth has already provided more than
I trust the untested brand new science of big Pharma and their ulterior motives.*


----------



## Vanilla

Very unsurprising that a person that specializes in holistic and natural medicines would object to any vaccine, let alone this one. Not surprising in the least. 

I completely understand anyone giving pause to this vaccine based upon long term effects. That is the one are we simply don’t know anything about. There is no way we could know that less than one year into the vaccine even existing. I don’t judge anyone who has those concerns. 

That said, there are objectively false things and a lot of conjecture in that letter. It’s unfortunate that those we are supposed to be able to trust as experts can’t just stick to the objective data and give medical advice but have to resort to conjecture and in some cases, incorrect “facts” on the topic.


----------



## Critter

Everyone needs to do what they think is best. I would of preferred to of gotten the single shot from JJ instead of the double stick from Moderna, but that would quite likely put off the vaccine until next summer or even fall depending on just when the vaccine hit my local area.

Even talking to my neighbor how is a anti-vaxer about it and he will refuse to get any of the vaccines. He refuses to get a flue vaccine every year and usually comes down with it every year, he walks around so doped up on over the counter medications that he has no idea of just how bad he feels. 

Back on the vaccines, the other night Fox News had a show on about them and they did a survey on just who is getting the vaccines as far as political party was concerned. Those with a D behind their name were in the 90%+ group, the R's were around the mid 50% and if you had I you were in a 60% group.


----------



## backcountry

Agreed on the distinction between personal discomfort with inherent lack of long term data AND unfounded conjecture on said long term effects. At some point it becomes fear mongering, like the infertility statements.

And I am highly suspect of any organization that recommends colloidal silver over vaccines. That substance has a well documented history of pseudo-science and outright dishonest marketing/claims.

https://quackwatch.org/related/phonyads/silverad/


----------



## Vanilla

Critter said:


> Back on the vaccines, the other night Fox News had a show on about them and they did a survey on just who is getting the vaccines as far as political party was concerned. Those with a D behind their name were in the 90%+ group, the R's were around the mid 50% and if you had I you were in a 60% group.


It's funny this issue became politicized. It's not shocking, because everting tends to be that way these days. But honestly, I don't know how it did. Love, like, hate or be completely indifferent to Donald Trump, the way his administration cut red tape so this vaccine could actually hit the market as soon as it did should be recognized as the crown jewel of his time in office. He should be getting his portion of credit for the efforts made there. It's unfortunate he decided to get the vaccine in silence, because I think he could have done a lot to dissuade the discrepancies in the numbers above. He did mention last week that everyone should go get their shot. Maybe that will help? Who knows anymore. Things have become so polarized I don't know which way is up or down anymore.

As for me- I asked my doctor if I should get it. He said yes. I'll trust the medical advice I was given. Like critter said, everyone has to decide for him/herself. I just hope the decisions are being made based upon actually real information. There still is some unknown here. For sure.


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> *It's funny this issue became politicized. *It's not shocking, because everting tends to be that way these days. But honestly, I don't know how it did. Love, like, hate or be completely indifferent to Donald Trump, the way his administration cut red tape so this vaccine could actually hit the market as soon as it did should be recognized as the crown jewel of his time in office. He should be getting his portion of credit for the efforts made there. *It's unfortunate he decided to get the vaccine in silence, because I think he could have done a lot to dissuade the discrepancies in the numbers above.* He did mention last week that everyone should go get their shot. Maybe that will help? Who knows anymore. Things have become so polarized I don't know which way is up or down anymore.
> .


Interesting. I think if he HAD done it in public it would have been viewed as politicizing it.

Damned if you do, Damned if you dont seems to be the norm these days.

As for the vaccine... I feel in no rush what-so-ever to get it now. I probably will get it eventually. But all the people jumping on it and getting it early will help generate those long term testing numbers for side effects. Hopefully, it is completely and utterly safe, time will decide.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Trump should definitely get credit for his early expediting of the vaccine process. It's one of the elements of unilateralism that can be needed and powerful. Unfortunately he was his own worst enemy in messaging as he contradicted himself on the regular. I think he could have done wonders to fight resistance and misinformation within communities across the country. 

Agree with Vanilla that the best source is simply to talk with your doctor. They know your medical history and vulnerability to the disease better than any political community. But I'd recommend an medical doctor over say a chiropractor any day. There is a reason they have different colleges and accreditation.


----------



## Vanilla

DallanC said:


> Interesting. I think if he HAD done it in public it would have been viewed as politicizing it.
> 
> Damned if you do, Damned if you dont seems to be the norm these days.


I don't think he had to do it in public, like on National TV. But maybe instead of tweeting only about election fraud, he could have mixed somewhere in there, "Hey, me and Melania got our vaccines today. Everyone should prepare to do the same."

I'm guessing that mid-50s number critter posted above jumps to mid-70s on that alone, with no drop off on any of the others. No doubt the contradictory messaging the last year from the White House has caused that number to be low. And all the while he could have been celebrating it.

Oh well. Can't cry over spilt milk. Anyone in the state of Utah that wants it will be able to get fully vaccinated by June it appears. I just hope enough do it so that it makes all the efforts worth it. I'm really looking forward to not wearing a mask and also attending large gatherings again. I haven't been with my whole family gathered at once since mid-September. There are neighbors I haven't seen in-person in a year now. I miss that a lot.


----------



## bowgy

I try reading and looking at everything I can to try and make an educated decision. I don't believe everything I read and I try to cross reference things.

I am healthy and in the low percentage area except for age from all that I have read so far.

I had chicken pox when I was young so I am looking into the shingles vaccine. 

As for the flu, I have only had a shot 2 different times, both those years I got a bad flu, not from the shot but just getting sick for a week, I have only gotten sick from the flu one or two other times so I don't get a flu shot.

As far as magic potions such as colloidal silver, magic water and other huge doses of supplements I don't do that either. I like to try and get my nutrients by eating a large variety of fruits, vegetables, legumes and meats. I just have to work on the amounts


----------



## backcountry

Makes sense Bowguy. I have the same issue with food percentages 😁

I know my parent's GP recommended waiting between different vaccinations. And some of our friends have had unpleasant, but minor, reactions to the shingles vaccine so I totally get prioritizing time and sequence. I've had several friends in their 30s and 40s get shingles and it sounds absolutely miserable and painful. 

Best of luck. It's tough wading through so much information. We make the decisions with the information we have and then hope for the best.


----------



## bowgy

I guess my hardest thoughts on this is in the past year my 40 year old nephew died of colon cancer, one of my best friends and hunting and fishing buddies for the past 50 years died of diabetes, one of my sons friends a couple of months ago put a gun in his mouth and ended his life, and several others I know have died from various things, but fortunately no one I know close to me has died from covid. I have heard of a few but no one that I know. 

Even my oldest sister who is in her 70's just got over covid, she said it wasn't pleasant but she tries to stay healthy.

So things like this also makes me apprehensive of taking the vaccine.

And I guess this crusty old cowboy mind thinks when it's my time to die it's my time to die. I could walk out of the clinic after getting my shot and get ran over by a truck.

Oh well, I never did claim to be the shiniest apple in the basket. Maybe I will procrastinate the decision long enough that I will get the stupid virus.


----------



## DallanC

bowgy said:


> As for the flu, I have only had a shot 2 different times, both those years I got a bad flu, not from the shot but just getting sick for a week, I have only gotten sick from the flu one or two other times so I don't get a flu shot.


I got the flu one year after getting the flu shot long long ago. My parents get the shot yearly and one of them usually get the flu each year.

I haven't had the flu shot in 20 years and my wife hasn't had it in about the same time frame. Neither of us has had the flu since we stopped getting the shot. Anecdotal evidence of course, but we see and experience it first hand. If I ever get the flu two years in a row I might start getting flu shots... but after two decades without getting it, seems to be pretty rare for our household.

-DallanC


----------



## DallanC

GOOD BY COVID BEARD! You served me well... but good lord it gets annoying after a while. 9" growth over 12 months. So many things you dont think of with a long beard, like you cant shoulder a shotgun without the gun yanking half your face off. sleeping, beard hair getting up your nose or in your eyes. Hah!

I just cut it off. First time shaving in 12 months... rofls... house feels colder for some reason.


-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

DallanC said:


> GOOD BY COVID BEARD! You served me well... but good lord it gets annoying after a while. 9" growth over 12 months. So many things you dont think of with a long beard, like you cant shoulder a shotgun without the gun yanking half your face off. sleeping, beard hair getting up your nose or in your eyes. Hah!
> 
> I just cut it off. First time shaving in 12 months... rofls... house feels colder for some reason.
> 
> -DallanC


I have had a beard all except 2 days since September 1975. I shaved it off one time so my kids could see what I looked like without it. The wife threatened me with divorce if I didn't immediately start a new one.

I have found one secret though, you can trim it!


----------



## Catherder

Had some password issues at work and couldn't join in with a pithy comment or two. Will throw in my 2 cents on a variety of the topics here.


1. I haven't heard any official "R" numbers from Dr. Dunn or other epidemiologists. I think they can estimate it based on case curves, but a highly accurate one would require more detailed contact tracing than the budget of the health department and the privacy concerns of the public would allow. It also is a dynamically changing number. 

2. Conventional medicine does not have all the answers, so I won't vigorously bash "alternative medicine", but there were a number of concerns I saw in glancing at the posted letter. I will mention a couple although this is far from a complete list. 

A) "These new vaccines are additionally contaminated with aluminum, mercury and possibly
formaldehyde." 

Aluminum is what is called an adjuvant. It is used in a variety of vaccines to stimulate an immune response. I have my doubts about mercury even being present. Adjuvants are nothing new and have enough research behind them to know a bit about their effects both good and undesirable. 

B) "Absolutely no long term safety studies have been done"

How is this possible with a vaccine for a new pathogen like covid? The only way to satisfy this demand would be to vaccinate a few people while the disease burned through the population at large. The pandemic would be over but, hey, we would know about the long term effects. In reading the end of the letter, the writer seems to favor letting the disease run its course through the population regardless of the incipient toll it takes.

C) For every skeptic about mrna vaccines, there are several others that favor the approach. It is the same in almost every endeavor in science and medicine. I will let the results speak for themselves and they are favorable. If one is uncomfortable with that type of vaccine, there are now alternatives. 

3 This "argyria", caused by ingesting colloidal silver, may be how Oli gets his zombies, if it turns you bluish grey as described. 

4. As for the politicization of the vaccine and the pandemic, I've found it as disheartening as heck. The Trump administration does deserve kudos for operation warp speed, but his actions before, during and after warp speed, (hoax, plandemic, over Nov. 5th) in politicizing and downplaying the overall pandemic are directly responsible IMO for the right's prior and current behavior regarding vaccination and health guidelines. Also, IMO, the electoral repercussions are why he is no longer in office. 

It was not long ago that the "anti-vaxxer" conspiracy theorists resided most prominently in left wing circles. Not anymore. (OK, no more politics)

5. I got the first shingles shot shortly before covid hit. That vaccine kicked my butt far worse than the rona vaccines did. I still need to get the booster. 

6. +1 on asking a trusted physician what is best for a given person. It is definitely better than believing what some yahoo on UWN or Facebook says. All the same, I sincerely hope that enough of us get the vaccine that we can finally get the pandemic reduced sufficiently to return to some semblance of normal. Safety and efficacy have both exceeded my expectations and I have been a big proponent from the beginning, as noted in this interminable thread.


----------



## bowguyonly

bowgy said:


> I am still researching and watching, I keep going back and forth whether to get the vaccine or not. Real interested in the new single dose that just came out.
> 
> As part of my research here is a paper from my niece who is a Chiropractor in Denver specializing in holistic and natural medicine and neurology specialist.
> 
> It's a little long but if your interested she has done a lot of research on it. This was back in December so she may have more.
> 
> *Dear Patient and Friends Written Dec17, 2020
> 
> I have been asked what seems like a million times what my thoughts are on the new COVID
> vaccines.
> 
> Here is my professional opinion based upon my own research and cross references with other
> professionals in the field.
> 
> Please feel free to pass this information on to anyone you wish as above and beyond anything
> else I am a proponent of informed consent. People have the right to know everything when it
> comes to their health care decisions, especially the decision to injecting foreign genetic material
> into their bodies.
> 
> 1. The COVID vaccines (both Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines. mRNA vaccines are a
> completely new type of vaccine. No mRNA vaccine had ever been licensed for human use
> before. In essence, we have no idea what to expect as far as consequences from his type of a
> vaccine. We have no idea if is effective or safe in the short term or the long term. To give
> you a compares, Metformin has been the #1 drug prescribed for Diabetes in the US since
> 1995. In 2020 it was pulled from the market as it was found to also cause cancer. So, if after
> the trial needed to get it to market it still took 25 years to discover the long term side effects
> and it took 30 years for doctors to realize the negative side effects of Statins&#8230; do you think
> that the 90 person trail for Modern and 19,000 person study for Pfizer can tell there are no
> side effects. No, they say there are no {yet} "known" side effects.
> 
> 2. Traditional vaccine simply introduce pieces of a virus to stimulate an immune reaction. The
> same reaction that would occur if you encountered the agent in nature. The new mRNA vaccine
> is completely different. It actually injects (trasnfects) molecules of synthetic genetic materials
> from non-human sources into our cells. Once in the cells, the genetic material interacts with our
> transfer RNA (tRNA) to make a foreign protein that supposedly teaches the body to destroy the
> virus being coded for. Note that these newly created proteins are not regulated by our own DNA,
> and are thus completely foreign to our cells. What they are fully capable of doing is unknown.
> 
> 3. The mRNA molecule is vulnerable to destruction. So, in order to protect the fragile mRNA
> strands while they are being inserted into out DNA they are coated with PEGylated lipid
> nanoparticles. This coating hides the mRNA from our immune system with ordinarily would kill
> any foreign material injected into the body. PEGylated lipid nanoparticles have been used in
> several different drugs for years . Because of their effect on immune balance, several studies
> have shown them to induce allergies and autoimmune disease. Additionally, PEGylated lipid
> nanoparticles have been shown to trigger their own immune reactions and to cause damage to the
> liver. These are very likely long term side effects&#8230; most likely autoimmune or allergic reaction
> issues to the injection of unknown particles created to "trick" the immune system.
> 
> 4. These new vaccines are additionally contaminated with aluminum, mercury and possibly
> formaldehyde. The manufacturers have not yet disclosed what other toxins they contain.
> 
> 5. Since the viruses mutate frequently, the chance of any vaccine working for more than a year is
> unlikely. That is why the flu vaccine changes every year. Last years flu vaccine is no more
> valuable than last years newspaper.
> 
> 6. Absolutely no long term safety studies have been done to ensure that any of these vaccines
> don't cause the cancer, seizures, heart disease, allergies, neurological damage, and autoimmune
> disease that has been found to occur with other vaccines. If you have ever wanted to be a guinea
> pig for Big Pharma, now is your golden opportunity.
> 
> 7.Many experts question whether the Mrna technology is ready for prime time. In November
> 2020, Dr. Peter Jay Hotez said of the new mRNA vaccines "I worry about the innovation at the
> expense of practicality because they {the mRNA vaccines} are weighted toward technology
> platforms that have never made it to licensure before." Dr. Hotez is Professor of Pediatrics and
> Molecular Virology &Microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine, where he is also Director of
> the Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development. If the experts feel unsure about
> this rushed to market untried vaccine, maybe we should too.
> 
> 8. Among other concerns, Yeadon and Wodart warn that some of the vaccines may prevent the
> safe development of placentas in pregnant women, resulting in "vaccinated women essentially
> becoming infertile." "Several vaccine candidates are expected to induce the formation of
> humoral antibodies against spike proteins of SARS-CoV-2," the doctors wrote. "Syncytin-1
> which is derived from human endogenous retroviruses (HERV) and is responsible for the
> development of a placenta in mammals and humans and is therefore an essential prerequisite for
> a successful pregnancy, is also found in homologous form in the spike proteins of SARS
> viruses," they continued. "There is no current indication whether antibodies against spike
> proteins of SARS viruses would also act like anti-Syncytin-1 antibodies. However, if this were to
> be the case this would then also prevent the formation of a placenta which would result in
> vaccinated women essentially becoming infertile." Therefore in childbearing women who have a
> likelihood of dying from COVID of .02-.002%.. it may create infertility.
> 
> 9. Michal Linial, PhD is a professor of Biochemistry. Because of her research and forecasts on
> COVID-19, Dr. Linial has been widely quoted in the media. She recently stated, "I won't be
> taking it }the mRNA vaccine} immediately -probably not for at least the coming year. We will
> have to wait and see whether or not it really works. We will have a safety profile for only a
> certain number of months, so if there is a long-term effect after two years we cannot know."
> In November 2020, the Washington Post reported on hesitancy among healthcare professionals in
> the Unites States to the mRNA vaccines, citing surveys which reported that "some did not want
> to be int he first round so that they could wait and see if there potential side effects", and that
> "doctors and nurses want more stat before championing vaccines to end the pandemic".
> 
> 10. Since the death rate from COVID resumed to the normal flu death rate way back in early
> September, the pandemic has been over since then. I know that the media does not tell you this.
> However, when you go to the CDC website and compare numbers 2 things are clear: the death
> numbers from COVID -19 and exactly on par with the death rates for any given flu in any given
> year and the overall death rates for this year are also exactly equal to any other given year. The
> current scare tactic regarding "escalating cases" is based upon a PCR test that because it exceeds
> 34 amplifications has a 100% false positive rate unless it is perfumed between the 3rd and 5th
> day after the first day of symptoms. It is therefore 100% inaccurate in people with no symptoms.
> This has been well established in the scientific literature. Therefore, at this point in time there is
> no vaccine needed.
> 
> 11. The other reason you don't need a vaccine for COVID-19 is that substantial herd immunity
> has already taken place in the United States. This is the primary reason for the end of the
> pandemic. In addition, COVID-19 has mutated since March and the most recent cases are
> showing up over 80% of the time as a very mild flu and if you do get infected your chances of
> dying are .002% if you are below age 19, .02% if you are age 20-49, .5% if you are age 50-69
> and 5% if you are above 70. What that means is very, very, very low likelihood of death, you
> most likely would have a mild cold and you may experience a bad flu for 3-14 days.
> 
> 12. Unfortunately, you cannot completely trust what you hear from the media. The have
> consistently gotten it wrong for the past year. Since they are all supported financially by Big
> Pharma and other entities selling the COVID vaccines, they are only given that screw of the
> perspective and cannot be neutral or forthcoming when it comes to the mRNA vaccine. Every
> statement I have made here is fully backed by published scientific references.
> 
> 13. I would be very interested to see verification that Bill and Melinda Gates which their entire
> family including grandchildren, Joe Biden, and President Trump and their entire family, and
> Anthony Fauci will get the vaccine.
> 
> 14. Anyone who after reading this all still wants to get injected with the mRNA vaccine should
> at the very least have their blood tested for the COVID-19 antibodies. There is no need for a
> vaccine in a person who already been naturally immunized. I personally have been getting my
> blood tested for antibodies since I am highly desirable Type O universal donor and antibodies
> have been found in my blood, which means I came in contact with it, although I never felt sick.
> 
> 15. As I finished this collection of thoughts the Pfizer has been on the market for 3 days. There
> is already reports of hospitalizations from severe allergic reactions and neurological reactions
> such as Bell's Palsy and Guillain- Barre'. All these reactions are warnings on the label. Also on
> the label are the expected reactions that occur in most vaccines and which typically lasted several
> days were pain at the injection site, tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, joint pain, and fever
> (all of these are the same low level side effects of just getting COVID. Granted the severe
> reactions are low.. but so are the severe reactions of COVID. Which dice do you want to throw?
> 
> Here is my bottom line: I would much rather get COVID infection and allow my body to fight it
> with my strong and healthy immune system. That would be safer and more effective. In my
> office and my friend group I have known a large number of people to have contracted COVID,
> some were old and had preexisting health concerns. Most had very mild symptoms and every
> single one has done really well with natural therapies including Vit C, Zinc, Artemesiana and
> Colloidal Silver. Just because modern medicine has no effective treatment for viral infections,
> does not mean that there isn't one.
> 
> I trust my own immune system and the apothecary that the earth has already provided more than
> I trust the untested brand new science of big Pharma and their ulterior motives.*


This is why 40x more old people are dieing from the vaccine than covid itself. 
People are volunteering to be the animal test subjects having no clue what it will do to them. Why would 75% of the military refuse it AND the laws state the military cannot be forced a vaccine without test trials? Because it is illegal to use the military as lab rats.
Now people have taken it and will refuse, no matter the evidence, to admit it to be harmful. It's like a gambler who lost their house and keeps gambling refusing to admit its foolish to take out the 401k. Or someone who invests in a scam and keeps on investing. Nobody wants to admit they've been had.

Why would several other countries ban the vaccines? Why are people convulsing, having bad rashes and headaches afterwards and the UK said people under 15 and over 65 should not take it? 
Hopefully they dont develop the cytokine storms like the nut job conspiracy people say.


----------



## Kwalk3

bowguyonly said:


> This is why 40x more old people are dieing from the vaccine than covid itself.
> People are volunteering to be the animal test subjects having no clue what it will do to them. Why would 75% of the military refuse it AND the laws state the military cannot be forced a vaccine without test trials? Because it is illegal to use the military as lab rats.
> Now people have taken it and will refuse, no matter the evidence, to admit it to be harmful. It's like a gambler who lost their house and keeps gambling refusing to admit its foolish to take out the 401k. Or someone who invests in a scam and keeps on investing. Nobody wants to admit they've been had.
> 
> Why would several other countries ban the vaccines? Why are people convulsing, having bad rashes and headaches afterwards and the UK said people under 15 and over 65 should not take it?
> Hopefully they dont develop the cytokine storms like the nut job conspiracy people say.


Was kinda hoping this was tongue-in-cheek? But apparently not....

I don't understand the conspiracy theories about the vaccine. It is literally our way out of this mess. Go read Catherder's post. Look at the numbers in our state and nationwide and realize that while we aren't out of the woods yet, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Hospitalizations and deaths are starting to trend the right way.

I'm low on the priority list as a 35yo healthy make that doesn't work in any kind of essential industry, but as soon as I'm able to, I'll be getting my vaccine too.

Looking forward to it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## DallanC

Kwalk3 said:


> I don't understand the conspiracy theories about the vaccine. It is literally our way out of this mess.


mRNA based vaccines are brand new with respect to human usage. It very well may be the golden bullet to stop covid and other related virus's. They work entirely different from prior vaccine types (replicate "dead" virus dna, body learns to fight it), by blocking how / where virus's attach to cells.

Whats at issue, is we have no long term statistics on what these will do to the human body, what other things possibly may be affected long term. There's a reason these vaccine producers had to get "special permission" to release the vaccine "for emergency use", it was not allowed before beside limited testing. We've gone from 0 mph to 100mph in the blink of an eye.

Look it comes down to this: Covid19 statistically has a relatively low mortality rate for people in moderate health and with no underlying conditions. Compare this with a unproven vaccine methodology that has no information about how a body will be affected.

I personally with the facts available, dont see the need to get the vaccine right now. If any individual feels the need to get it however, I'm in full support of you doing what you feel is right. The more people who do get immunized, the less the rest have to worry about it (ie: herd immunity).

As time goes on, the great "Covid19 mRNA" test on humans is going to generate a tremendous amount of data, as it appears the vast majority of people will get it. I just hope nothing bad develops down the road for folks that did get vaccinated.

-DallanC


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## bowguyonly

I'm with Dallan. I see no need for it. When the death rate from covid itself is less than 1%, why would I? 
The other thing is, if the PCR test was more accurate being ran on less cycles, I'd believe the numbers they put out. But since it isnt, and the UK hasn't had one flu case this year, our death rate didnt change from 2019 to 2020, I'm not seeing the added threat great enough to accept the vaccine. 
This being America, everyone has their own choice. 
Then again, Dr. Seuss is being cancelled. Who knows anymore.


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## DallanC

Here's alot of good detailed information from UPenn university. I'll post the summary, if anyone is interested they can root around in it.

http://www.uphs.upenn.edu/cep/COVID/mRNA vaccine review final.pdf


> EVIDENCE SUMMARY
> 
> 
> There are no specific guidelines for use of messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines or contraindications to mRNA vaccines.
> No large trials of any mRNA vaccine have been completed yet.
> The only evidence on safety of mRNA vaccines comes from small phase I and phase II trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, with follow-up typically less than two months.
> Systemic adverse events such as fatigue, muscle aches, headache, and chills are common.
> Severe systemic adverse events were reported by 5 to 10 percent of trial subjects.
> Localized adverse events such as pain at the injection side are common.
> Both systemic and local adverse events usually are resolved within one or two days.
> The rate and severity of adverse events appears to be higher for the second dose of vaccine than for the first.
> Higher vaccine doses appear to increase the rate and severity of adverse events.
> Larger trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are in progress, with results expected in mid-2021.
> There is not sufficient evidence to support any conclusions on the comparative safety of different mRNA vaccines.
> Direct evidence on the comparative safety of mRNA vaccines and other vaccines is lacking.


-DallanC


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## middlefork

I love number 10!
Larger trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are in progress, with results expected in mid-2021.


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## backcountry

Something is definitely wrong with the UPenn document as the Moderna vaccine had finished Phase 3 trials and had been approved by December 18th. The linked document was released on December 24. I can't put my finger on it as it's not the normal crap Dallas copies and pastes (like completely fake car crash statistics) but it's suspect nonetheless.

Per bowguyonly...the garbage about death rates would be laughable if it wasn't so common. That's been debunked so many times it's ridiculous. Anyone who posts it either doesn't fact check themselves or doesn't know how to compare charts (hint: look at the dates). Preliminary data released last month shows at least an extra 330k+ deaths in 2020 compared to 2019 and the highest fatality rate per capita since the 40s. And that's with data from the final quarter being incomplete.

https://usafacts.org/articles/preli...deaths-in-2020-than-2019-coronavirus-age-flu/

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/typical-year-covid-deaths/

Wether or not individuals posting such claims know this is misinformation is less important than realizing there is a concerted effort across the internet to spread it. I'm all for individuals making their own decisions but the tsunami of false information makes that process much harder. The fact that the lies about 2020 death rates persists for this long should concern us all. We've lost more than 500k Americans to this disease and too many of our fellow citizens refuse to accept that fact.


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## Kwalk3

backcountry said:


> Something is definitely wrong with the UPenn document as the Moderna vaccine had finished Phase 3 trials and had been approved by December 18th. The linked document was released on December 24. I can't put my finger on it as it's not the normal crap Dallas copies and pastes (like completely fake car crash statistics) but it's suspect nonetheless.
> 
> Per bowguyonly...the garbage about death rates would be laughable if it wasn't so common. That's been debunked so many times it's ridiculous. Anyone who posts it either doesn't fact check themselves or doesn't know how to compare charts (hint: look at the dates). Preliminary data released last month shows at least an extra 330k+ deaths in 2020 compared to 2019 and the highest fatality rate per capita since the 40s. And that's with data from the final quarter being incomplete.
> 
> https://usafacts.org/articles/preli...deaths-in-2020-than-2019-coronavirus-age-flu/
> 
> https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/typical-year-covid-deaths/
> 
> Wether or not individuals posting such claims know this is misinformation is less important than realizing there is a concerted effort across the internet to spread it. I'm all for individuals making their own decisions but the tsunami of false information makes that process much harder. The fact that the lies about 2020 death rates persists for this long should concern us all. We've lost more than 500k Americans to this disease and too many of our fellow citizens refuse to accept that fact.


That's kinda what i was getting at. I'm ultimately ok with someone as an individual who is cautious of "new" vaccines, but the concerted effort to paint the vaccine and it's efficacy as suspect is going to do nothing but prolong the pain.

Science is pretty cool, and while there is no way to see long term effects of a new vaccine, I am incredibly grateful that we have potentially 3 effective options that should be available to all of us relatively soon.


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## bowguyonly

https://forbiddenknowledgetv.net/dr...id-vaccines-will-start-working-in-3-6-months/

Plenty of honest, cancelled doctors out there. Take your pick. Here is one of them. Most know the truth but dont want to lose their license for speaking out.

And here are her credentials.

https://www.drtenpenny.com/cv


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## backcountry

Forbidden Knowledge TV?

Yes, I am going to take scientific information from the former producer of "Yo, MTV Raps" as a valid source. -O,-

And Dr Tenpenny? Nothing like a doctor with such failed scientific literacy that she pushes the false narrative that vaccines cause autism. But at some point its not failed literacy so much as willful ignorance. 

I did enjoy the laugh about cancel culture. Thank you for that. Occasionally trolls do provide some entertainment value. Once in a while its just fun to see what dredges of the internet people are making money off of.

Thanks for the laugh. I needed that. Though I should probably reset my computer to default factory settings after visiting that website.


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## backcountry

Oh my, her rabbit hole goes dark and deep. She actually blames Sandy Hook on Adam Lanza's exposure to vaccines and flouride! Wowza.


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## Kwalk3

backcountry said:


> Oh my, her rabbit hole goes dark and deep. She actually blames Sandy Hook on Adam Lanza's exposure to vaccines and flouride! Wowza.


I couldn't even justify the posting of her "credentials" with a response initially. Glad you gave it proper treatment.

Stuff like this doctor is espousing is going to do nothing but prolong the time that we have to deal with this virus.

I understand people who on an individual level are apprehensive about the risks of the vaccine. It is ok to state that we don't know anything about the long term effects of the vaccine. That said, we can't then turn around and talk about the sub 1% fatality rate of COVID and ignore the long term effects there. We don't know how people that have had COVID will potentially be affected in the future.

I am 100% not ok with the spread of blatant misinformation that so many people latch on to like what bowguyonly is throwing out there.

Let's look for solutions, not problems, people. If you're nervous about the vaccine, or don't feel it's a priority, that's fine, but lets not dredge up anyone with a Dr. in front of their name who tells us what we want to hear.


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## backcountry

Agree. Being legitimately concerned about the lack of long term analysis of not only these vaccines but the new "tech" of mRna vaccines in general is a personal choice I can understand. I can't ultimately argue with an individual's right to choose what they put in their own body.

But the level of misinformation out there fueling the confusion is disheartening. Hopefully at the end of the day enough people know the difference between thoughtful analysis and the Dr Tenpenny's of the world. Even the oddities in the UPenn link don't discredit the reasoned approach to new vaccine platforms its trying to present. 

A different but relevant conclusion....our country needs to prioritize science writing as a critical field in the near future. 2020 will provide plenty of constructive criticism on what works and what doesn't in presenting complicated and inherently changing information about science to the lay public. Hopefully we can learn from that lesson and do better in the future as the potential for another pandemic is always on the radar.


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## bowguyonly

If we are to take a look at cultural revolutions, they take control of information in many ways. Like cancel culture, paid for "fact checkers", media and higher education centers. The fact is, we are in the middle of a culture revolution. I'm actually writing a paper on it for a politics class right now. The information on the vaccine, death rate and infected rates fall right in line with this revolution. They control the information making people speaking truth seem bad and bad, good. They are also using the natural human tendency to deny the truth to maintain where they stand out of self pride. 

If someone takes a hard stand for an idea but they find out that idea is incredibly, horribly wrong, they have a hard time admitting they're wrong or dont admit it at all. Oftentimes they continue in the idea to not admit that it is wrong. 

Similarly, someone who is provided bucket loads of credible evidence on a forum but they have built up themselves so far into an idea they will laugh off the credible evidence no matter what is provided. Unfortunately, there are a lot of people with a lot of money paying off the internet and news stations to help them continue in the lies. 

It's interesting to have conversations like this with professors. When the light turns on, they go silent until the next class. They come back with parallel thought processes as the weekly main stream "program" has fed them. Provide why what they are saying is incorrect and provide more credible information, get them thinking about the bigger picture and the cycle continues. They are intelligent enough to know the truth but wont admit it. If they did, that would mean everything they have been taught is a lie. 
Nobody wants to admit the truth. Doesnt mean it isnt there. 

The reactions here oftentimes are like talking to a further than left, liberal. They generally resort to making fun or laughing at the idea of truth. Whatever it takes to maintain living in the lie. 

People often ask, where did you get your information? Then they laugh and deny it to be credible. It is almost cult like how on que people respond in that way. All the same.


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## bowguyonly

https://medicalkidnap.com/2020/10/1...s-suing-and-calling-for-end-to-covid-tyranny/

You seemed to enjoy a good laugh the first go around. I thought maybe you'd like another.


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## bowguyonly

https://healthfeedback.org/claimrev...irus-and-the-reliability-of-diagnostic-tests/

This is the opposition propaganda. 
Talks about the PCR test working. 
https://off-guardian.org/2020/12/18/who-finally-admits-pcr-tests-create-false-positives/
And here is the WHO saying they're faulty. If they're faulty, then that would mean the death and infection numbers are wrong. Which would mean there isnt as great of a need for a vaccine, yet. 
People knew the tests were faulty when the test came out because it was faulty during the HIV Aids pandemic way back and it's the same test. But the media wouldnt cover it, so nobody would believe the test to be wrong and the numbers inaccurate. But they needed to create the fear to convince people world wide we needed a vaccine and it had to be under emergency circumstances to cut the red tape. It's strange how the vaccines had patents on them before the actual pandemic. 
Two masks are better than one and three are better than two. Even if Fauci said the masks killed more people in 1918 than the spanish flu.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...ia-caused-most-deaths-1918-influenza-pandemic

Masks have come a long ways since then. Especially while wearing two or three of them. They wouldnt lie to us.

Anyways. I didnt mean to get into a peeing match. Be safe and stay free!


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## backcountry

The irony of your previous posts (not the last one, had this in queue before that) is the entertainment. Our household happens to be discussing the book "The Death of Expertise". It's a tough one as I have to be vulnerable to the criticisms it makes and that I've made publicly this year. But your superficial "woo-ish" criticism of professors at large is a perfect example of its hypothesis.

You have yet to provide actual compelling evidence. The fact that some doctors disagree with the politics of the pandemic isn't shocking and is actually to be expected. They are just fellow citizens who have the right to have personal ideologies. Where it gets bogus is when they fabricate (and likely profit) off of blatant falsehoods, like Dr Tenpenny. If you can't understand the fundamental difference between personally preferring unmedicated healthcare options and claiming vaccines cause autism and school massacres than I don't know what to say.

I wish you luck as you are going to need it by choosing to go this ascientific route of digging yourself deeper and deeper into misinformation.


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## bowguyonly

Are you suggesting the tens of thousands of doctors are misguided as you infer Dr. Tenpenny? 
As mentioned, regardless the information provided, it will be cast down. Not everyone puts off the truth. Generally the more humble type of people begin to connect the dots, ask questions and look for answers. 
Maybe you would want to look at both sides with a more open mind? Consider to not put off your goodness onto others. Not everyone, especially billionaires are out to help us. As much as it may seem like they are. 
Best of luck.


----------



## Catherder

bowguyonly said:


> This is why 40x more old people are dieing from the vaccine than covid itself.


Oh, Oli....smh.

500,000 covid fatalities X 40=20,000,000 dead from the vaccine? Or about 8-9% of the US population. Sure, bud.

A couple more comments.

1. It should be pointed out that if one is for any reason uneasy about taking a mRNA vaccine, the J&J vaccine is made by an "old school" technique of using dsDNA in an adenovirus 26 vector, used in other vaccinations. Get that one if you otherwise want to be vaccinated!

2. Other than likely being dated, I really didn't see anything unusual, new, or problematic on Dallins link. As is known, phase 3 trails have been completed for a while. I thought though that it may be helpful to share a little context to bullet points 4,5,and 9.

In the early phase Moderna trails, (IDK if Pfizer was the same) subjects were given vaccines at 3 different concentrations of antigen. The people that got the "high" dose amount were found to get fairly sick at a higher rate. (the 5-10% quoted by Penn) However, the "medium" amount was found to be as protective as the high dose, without the high rate of side effects. Thus, they were able to find the correct dose to use in the final product. Which is the point of doing the trials.

3. As I said before, it is impossible to obtain long term safety data on any new product, especially for use against a new pathogen. One has to weigh benefits of the product and available safety evidence vs the risks. This is nothing new however, although some folks may refuse all new medical innovations and prefer to go back to leeches and therapeutic bleedings.

What is becoming very clear however is the long term effects suffered by some people that get sick from covid (so called long haulers). Many of these folks got sick at the beginning of the pandemic and are still suffering from effects of it, even though they are listed as "recovered" on official statistics.


----------



## CPAjeff

I got the first dose bank in early February and the second dose yesterday. I had no side effects from the first shot and mild body ache from the second dose. Wondering when I should expect to turn into a Zombie...


----------



## Kwalk3

CPAjeff said:


> I got the first dose bank in early February and the second dose yesterday. I had no side effects from the first shot and mild body ache from the second dose. Wondering when I should expect to turn into a Zombie...


I've heard it doesn't happen for at least 48 hours. We will be watching you.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Critter

CPAjeff said:


> I got the first dose bank in early February and the second dose yesterday. I had no side effects from the first shot and mild body ache from the second dose. Wondering when I should expect to turn into a Zombie...


I heard that you are already there after the first dose, the second just insures it.

I got my first one a week ago and all I have noticed is that I now set off car alarms when I walk past them.


----------



## backcountry

Is Bow actually Oli? Did I miss that? 

Thanks for that little bit of math, Catherder. I'm disappointed the MSM isn't covering that massive loss of life from the vaccine 😳😁

And the more I think about Tenpenny and the anonymous tens of thousands of doctors the more I come to realize the vaccine is likely designed to depopulate the planet. It's actually quite a reasonable conclusion.

I do think the "left" has "some splaining to do" given it harbored the anti-vaxxer ancestors that eventually spawned this cultural hellscape. Some of the anti-vaxxers I knew are suddenly pro vaccine once the pandemic hit and consequences of their ideology were tested. I'm happy to see the change of heart but it's tough to ignore the clown car parade led by the likes of Jenny McCarthy and Robert F Kennedy handing off the honors to the newest cohort of quacks. 

Some days the zombie apocalypse sounds like it would be a relief. I mean, how hard can it be to stay away from 5G, fluoride and professors who don't immediately change their mind because of the sophistry of an undergraduate?


----------



## bowguyonly

The Oli thing went over my head. I just try to get people thinking along both sides of the line. Sometimes people can put the dots together, sometimes not. Sometimes people do, but decide to go back to where its comfortable. I understand why people do that. Nobody likes admitting things around them arent what they thought. I'm not suggesting I go to class and am somehow more intelligent than an educated professor. I do get them thinking beyond what the world allows them to think. I have very little faith the education system is teaching the truth about a lot of things. They produce the people who want to cancel Dr. Seuss! That is just wrong! Heh

I hope it's as safe as any other vaccine. Hopefully it's even safer. It definitely wont do the zombie thing. Not in 48 hours it wont for sure. Hehe


----------



## Ray

I will say, my niece just got the J&J shot a couple days ago (she’s only 17 but has epilepsy so they put her on the list) and it really jacked her up, was crying today because of how severe her reaction is.

I also deal with Surgeons everyday (I’m not a healthcare worker, I’m in sales) and hear horror stories about some reactions.

I had covid, as did my wife and one of my sons, it really wasn’t that bad, I was still working (remotely) and was still working out (in my home gym) I honestly have had worse colds and allergies, my wife and son also weren’t really all that sick either. My father in-law had covid as well, he’s 68 and has heart disease, didn’t slow him down one bit, still can’t taste much but that’s about the extent. Several others in my family had it, one with cancer and none were greatly impacted.

I’m not saying people shouldn’t get the vaccine, I think there are lots of people who absolutely need to, especially those at high risk or in the medical field but I don’t think I will. I’ve had the **** thing and hardly noticed it. 

I do know that not everyone that gets covid is as lucky as myself or my family, it killed my friends stepdad a few months ago and he was as healthy as an ox. 

All I’m saying is, for me, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.


----------



## Ray

Catherder said:


> bowguyonly said:
> 
> 
> 
> This is why 40x more old people are dieing from the vaccine than covid itself.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, Oli....smh.
> 
> 500,000 covid fatalities X 40=20,000,000 dead from the vaccine? Or about 8-9% of the US population. Sure, bud.
> .
Click to expand...

Your math is wrong on this, he's specifically referring to old people, not all of the 500k deaths were old people.

Not saying his numbers are right either, I highly doubt it's anywhere near 40x but still.


----------



## Vanilla

J&J has not been approved for anyone under 18 yet.


----------



## backcountry

Per the ridiculousness of Bowguyonly's posts, this popped up in my feed today.

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

Actual false positives seem to be extremely rare, in the range of 30-50 out of every 1 million from the sources I've seen that require tracking. It seems another example of poor media reporting as some of the issue is likely what the article called "subclinical" cases. Those are important issues that should inform policy as the isolation protocol could feasibly too strict for individuals with such low viral loads but that's completely different than "false positive".

Sometimes thinking out of the box like Oli-#2 is doing is just unsubstantiated and clearly false. The sort of sophistry that is "I skimmed an article that discusses false negatives and ct values" = "therefore death statistics are wrong" is the sort of problematic logic/conclusion even a high school diploma should eliminate. But even if we can rely on the generic false negative rate mentioned above to better analyze death statistics (it's definitely not that simple) that out of the 500k+ deaths we've experienced as a nation we could predict toughly 15-25 of those to be incorrectly attributed to Covid-19. I'll personally take that error rate any day. That said, given people in the ICU environment also have severe symptoms and therefore higher viral loads I'm guessing even that 15-25 number is an overestimate.

But you know, I should find some conspiracy sites that make me reconsider established science with empirical data to back it up solely because of a wackaloon's fear of depopulation by the illuminaughty.


----------



## backcountry

Per comparison between Covid-19 and vaccine deaths:

As of Feb 13th 373,000+ deaths had occurred in the 65+ an older demographic from Covid-19. That's out of 460k+ total at the time.

The total number of deaths reported after the Covid-19 vaccine were 1381 after a total of 74 million doses (not individuals fully inoculated). Research from CDC shows no known correlation between vaccine and those deaths. 

373k in older population > 1381 total deaths after vaccine 

At least 270 times more older generation citizens have died from Covid-19 than all those who happened to die after getting vaccinated.

Oli#2's claims on this subject are patently false. His posts are full of total BS.


----------



## Ray

Vanilla said:


> J&J has not been approved for anyone under 18 yet.


Then my niece is 18. I can tell you for 100% certainty that it's the j&j.


----------



## Catherder

Ray said:


> Your math is wrong on this, he's specifically referring to old people, not all of the 500k deaths were old people.
> 
> Not saying his numbers are right either, I highly doubt it's anywhere near 40x but still.


Mmmkay, actually the math is correct, but we are arguing about variables. Backcountry provided us the accurate number, 373000 deceased seniors, so what do we get now?

373000 X 40= 14,920,000 deceased from the vaccine would be the claim.

That happens to be 4.5X more than the population of the state of Utah. It is not any more believable. Neither is half, a tenth, or a hundredth of the number. We could go lower, but still.

My elderly neighbor across the street from me has covid right now. Her daughter-in-law told us yesterday that she may or may not make it. They are trying to be optimistic.

Changing direction slightly, I watched this podcast on my lunch break today. It discusses what some experts feel is the endgame of the pandemic. Believe it or not, it is pretty positive in tenor.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/turning-the-covid-19-pandemic-into-the-covid-19-endemic/


----------



## backcountry

There was also good news about antibodies in breast milk. It's early evidence and will need more time to pan out but that's hopeful news for parents.

One element that we'll probably start to hear more about is the "free-rider problem" in vaccination campaigns. It's been hinted at here already. It's been studied before but still in the hypothetical stage. But there is a good chance that many people we need to get vaccinated to help reach "herd immunity" may opt out. These individuals accept the benefits of vaccination campaigns (reduced transmission and prevalance of pathogen) without enduring the "cost" of participation. I dare say just about every aspect of social life has the issue but rarely are the consequences so obvious and stark.


----------



## Ray

Catherder said:


> Ray said:
> 
> 
> 
> Your math is wrong on this, he's specifically referring to old people, not all of the 500k deaths were old people.
> 
> Not saying his numbers are right either, I highly doubt it's anywhere near 40x but still.
> 
> 
> 
> Mmmkay, actually the math is correct, but we are arguing about variables. Backcountry provided us the accurate number, 373000 deceased seniors, so what do we get now?
> 
> 373000 X 40= 14,920,000 deceased from the vaccine would be the claim.
> 
> That happens to be 4.5X more than the population of the state of Utah. It is not any more believable. Neither is half, a tenth, or a hundredth of the number. We could go lower, but still.
> 
> My elderly neighbor across the street from me has covid right now. Her daughter-in-law told us yesterday that she may or may not make it. They are trying to be optimistic.
> 
> Changing direction slightly, I watched this podcast on my lunch break today. It discusses what some experts feel is the endgame of the pandemic. Believe it or not, it is pretty positive in tenor.
> 
> https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/turning-the-covid-19-pandemic-into-the-covid-19-endemic/
Click to expand...

Sorry, misspoke, your math is right but you were using incorrect figures, accuracy is important, especially when you're calling someone out for using incorrect numbers.

As I stated before, the 40x number is obviously wrong, I'm not defending that even in the slightest. just want some consistency.

That's terrible to hear about your neighbor, if there's anything the family needs, keep us posted on the forum, I would like to help in whatever manner I possibly can.

What's the name of the podcast?


----------



## Ray

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the literature says about immunity after infection?


----------



## backcountry

Still early but some research is being published which looks hopeful.

Science had a paper that found lasting immunity. It was a small sample size but is promising. I think they saw evidence to believe 6-8 months is a likely range at this point, though it could become longer as more time has passed from initial infections for the study group.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/lasting-immunity-found-after-recovery-covid-19

Just saw this one which summarizes more research but I haven't read it thoroughly. Sounds like we have reason to believe even mild infections foster similar length and quality of immune responses.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-long-does-immunity-last-after-covid-19-what-we-know

Fingers crossed those figures continue to prove promising and extend in length. It'd be great to see immunity last more than a season and further reduce the pool of people vulnerable to the disease and it's transmission.


----------



## Vanilla

The longer we go along here on this, the more we learn. Well, I hope we learn, at least.


----------



## DallanC

This is a neat development, a pill showing promise against Covid19 like Tamiflu. It blocks the virus's ability to reproduce.

If it passes muster in a wider test, Covid may become a mere minor annoyance in the future.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...l-of-pandemic-dr-marc-siegel-says/vi-BB1ekWM8

-DallanC


----------



## bowguyonly

It's going to be rough waking some people up. That's okay. When the time comes, try to understand what is happening. I'm positive itll be undeniable here soon. What is worrisome is what extent people go to when they realize they've been living in a world of deceit for the majority of their lives. 
Best wishes gentlemen.


----------



## MrShane

Oli, man up and don’t forget the promise you made.......


----------



## backcountry

Have to say I'm excited. Wife gets first shot today and my father in law managed to get a last minute appointment for today as well. That means everyone in our new(born) bubble will have shots but me.

I'm guessing another month for me unless they add substantially to medical conditions.


----------



## backcountry

Just released. Only skimmed it but seems thoughtful and balanced.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html


----------



## Vanilla

I got first dibs on eating bowguyonly and oli's brains first when we all turn into zombies from the vaccine.


----------



## Critter

Vanilla said:


> I got first dibs on eating bowguyonly and oli's brains first when we all turn into zombies from the vaccine.


I don't think that you would get very much.


----------



## Vanilla

Oh, I'm sure the brain mass is equal to any others. How we choose to use that mass, however, can be very different. 

Non-used brain mass is the best kind of brain mass to eat, from what my friends that were vaccinated early in the process are telling me now.


----------



## Critter

I just think that it is neat that I can set off car alarms by just walking past them after getting that first shot.


----------



## Catherder

Critter said:


> I just think that it is neat that I can set off car alarms by just walking past them after getting that first shot.


Wait till you get the second one. You will never look at Goobs recipes the same, your cellular data usage goes way down, and you can get 3 bars on a phone at Strawberry!


----------



## TravisBiggie

To be honest, I was in a panic at the beginning of the pandemic, because i saw how the whole world was fallen, but now I've made peace with the thought and have already settled in, I'm not panicking anymore.


----------



## Catherder

TravisBiggie said:


> To be honest, I was in a panic at the beginning of the pandemic, because i saw how the whole world was fallen, but now I've made peace with the thought and have already settled in, I'm not panicking anymore.


Do bots have any brain matter available to eat?


----------



## Charoung

I wouldn't like to fly in an airplane with such a pilot, he doesn't inspire confidence. In fact, this virus is much worse than the flu. A huge number of people die from COVID-19 every day. When there was a situation with the flu epidemic, people didn't stay at home for months and flights weren't canceled, so you don't always need to believe what the government says. Personally, I try to protect myself from COVID-19 as much as possible. Recently, I found an article about vinegar gummies. These vinegar gummies help strengthen the immune system and are suitable for everyone. One of these days, I'll order a few jars of these gummies.


----------



## 2full

???
Someone did wayyy to much acid in their younger days.

Edit.....
I realized later he was referring to the OP picture that started this thread. 
I would also be worried if I boarded a plane and the pilot was dressed like that.


----------



## bowgy

2full said:


> ???
> Someone did wayyy to much acid in their younger days.


Now that's funny right there..... I don't care who you are


----------



## DallanC

Co-worker just went and got the vaccine over lunch. They weren't paying attention and gave him a double dose (they thought the first shot was empty after injecting him and gave him a second shot. How do you miss that as a nurse???). Only AFTER the second shot did they verify the first shot wasn't empty. How clumsy.

-DallanC


----------



## bowgy

Did you say I got a double dose?? 
Funny..... I didn't feel a thing.


----------



## Critter

DallanC said:


> Co-worker just went and got the vaccine over lunch. They weren't paying attention and gave him a double dose (they thought the first shot was empty after injecting him and gave him a second shot. How do you miss that as a nurse???). Only AFTER the second shot did they verify the first shot wasn't empty. How clumsy.
> 
> -DallanC


Does that mean that he doesn't have to go get the second one now in 4 weeks?


----------



## CPAjeff

Welp, it's been a week since my second dose. Still waiting for something incredible to happen . . .


----------



## backcountry

I'm afraid I won't get any of the cool side effects and will be stuck with the Olestra type parting gifts (pun intended) by the time my shot comes around. I'd at least like some B Movie Zombie skills.


----------



## JerryH

I got my first vaccination yesterday in Farmington. That operation up there is run so smooth. Everything went well & no side effects. 

Pulling out of the arena I slumped over in the car & acted like I was blacking out. My wife was not amused lol


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I'm afraid I won't get any of the cool side effects and will be stuck with the Olestra type parting gifts (pun intended) by the time my shot comes around. I'd at least like some B Movie Zombie skills.


Meh, you aren't missing much. Brain is kind of bland and mushy and the extra cellular service just means you can be bothered more easily by people calling you.

On a more serious note, here is an article that discusses the challenges journalists have in writing about the differences in the different vaccines without freaking people out. I thought it had some useful information.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...son-johnson-vaccine-is-as-good-as-the-others/


----------



## DallanC

Critter said:


> Does that mean that he doesn't have to go get the second one now in 4 weeks?


LOL IDK... he was cracking some jokes about passing out in meetings today. But he was rather serious about being concerned they re-used a needle on him previously used by someone else.

-DallanC


----------



## bowgy

I was looking for some papers the other day and ran into my old military vaccination records. There are some things I have no idea what I was vaccinated for. :shock:

When I get some time I will have to google what they are.

I remember getting them several times, talk about efficiency, we just stood in a long line with our blouses off and T shirt sleeve rolled up on our shoulders, the doctor or nurse stood there with an air gun, no needles, the guys took one step, bam, took another step, bam, just one GI after another. You didn't want to flinch or it would tear your arm, you could tell the ones that flinched by the blood running down their arms.


----------



## Vanilla

I spent a couple years in Zimbabwe and Zambia as a young man. I had to get quite a few pokes in the arm for that one. I don't remember what they all were at this point. I wonder if my mom still has my vaccination records for that? Sometime I'm going to have to go comb through her stuff and see what I can find.


----------



## Critter

Vanilla said:


> I spent a couple years in Zimbabwe and Zambia as a young man. I had to get quite a few pokes in the arm for that one. I don't remember what they all were at this point. I wonder if my mom still has my vaccination records for that? Sometime I'm going to have to go comb through her stuff and see what I can find.


Mom's save everything when it comes to their kids.

When mine passed away a number of years ago we found mine and my sisters shot records that she had complied, and this was 30 years after I had gotten my last shot as we traveled around the US. I remember that if we were in a location where they were giving shots or boosters that she would sign me up for that poke in the arm.


----------



## Vanilla

Critter, turns out they do, until they give it back to you! I sent my mom a text asking if she thought she had it still, and she told me she gave me all that years ago. A quick look in a filing cabinet, and what do you know? 


Looks like I got 7 pokes as part of that process. Some were multi-shot vaccines though.


----------



## Critter

My mom never gave me stuff like that but then I was wanderer for a long time before I got married. My younger sister got all of her stuff but since I was never in one spot much more than a short time my mom held onto it. She then suffered a stroke just before I got married so I never got all of my childhood keepsakes until she passed away a couple of years later. 

But after talking about this I went and dragged out my vaccine records. It looks like I got a slew of them before we went into Mexico where my dad was working clear back in 1961.


----------



## johnnycake

Alaska opened the floodgates to anybody over 16 this week. I got my first dose (Pfizer) yesterday. I had a "mild" case of COVID last year, and frankly that sucked for 4.5 months before the brain fog attacks stopped and my energy recovered. 

But I'm not gonna sugar coat it, my reaction to the vaccine the past 25 hrs has not been pleasant. Not dangerous, but feels pretty rough. Worse fever than I ever had while sick, more and worse body aches and chills. 

But hey, I still have my energy and no brain fog so I'll take this every time. And this has been way nicer than my reaction to my yellow fever vaccine in 2008. That was the sickest I've ever felt in my life and lasted 3 days. 

I'm sure there's a lot to learn and that will be learned over time from this. In my family extended family we seem to all be having stronger reactions to the vaccine (Pfizer, moderna, and J&J) than most folks. I'm not exactly looking forward to round 2, but I'd much rather do that than risk getting COVID again. 4.5 months of losing access to my brain regularly was terrifying.


----------



## middlefork

Interesting!

I wonder if there is a relationship between people being more reactive to the virus and being more susceptible to reaction from the vaccine?

Anyway second dose tomorrow. Hardly felt the first, I guess we will see.

And yes I don't have my old vaccination card from the army but I do remember there were a whole bunch listed. And they all seemed to happen in a really short time.


----------



## middlefork

DallanC said:


> Co-worker just went and got the vaccine over lunch. They weren't paying attention and gave him a double dose (they thought the first shot was empty after injecting him and gave him a second shot. How do you miss that as a nurse???). Only AFTER the second shot did they verify the first shot wasn't empty. How clumsy.
> 
> -DallanC


Not saying it could not happen but I paid close attention today and what from I observed they had plenty of protocols in place to make sure of what they were doing (Davis County).

Good news is apparently it is only 7 days after your second dose that you are good to go according to the lady that was talking to me..


----------



## johnnycake

And in other news (I'll leave it to the reader to determine whether good or bad), I've decided to live and survive post vaccine dose 1. It was a right tough and nasty 37 hours, but I figured what the heck, I'll stick around. At least the scenery from my neighborhood is nice and the cupcakes make for great company.

I have to admit, post vaccine round 1 I have this insatiable urge to kill baby deer. Then again, that was there pre vaccine round 1.


----------



## Catherder

johnnycake said:


> I have to admit, post vaccine round 1 I have this insatiable urge to kill baby deer. Then again, that was there pre vaccine round 1.


This may be true, but the real test is what part of your kill you go to eat first.

If you are ignoring the tenderloins and backstraps and going for something more cranially, you will know.


----------



## 2full

johnnycake said:


> And in other news (I'll leave it to the reader to determine whether good or bad), I've decided to live and survive post vaccine dose 1. It was a right tough and nasty 37 hours, but I figured what the heck, I'll stick around. At least the scenery from my neighborhood is nice and the cupcakes make for great company.
> 
> I have to admit, post vaccine round 1 I have this insatiable urge to kill baby deer. Then again, that was there pre vaccine round 1.


From the looks of the green glow in those pic's , I have to assume that your Martian brothers were coming to save you from the pandemic ? ?
:grin:


----------



## backcountry

Are we getting more origin story for Thanos before he destroys half of all life in the galaxy?


----------



## johnnycake

Wait, you guys are eating what you kill?!


----------



## MrShane

Is that question directed to Mockingjay, or the rest of us?


----------



## bowgy

johnnycake said:


> I have to admit, post vaccine round 1 I have this insatiable urge to kill baby deer. Then again, that was there pre vaccine round 1.


So what you are saying is that you are back to normal?


----------



## Critter

bowgy said:


> So what you are saying is that you are back to normal?


JC back to normal?

Impossible...


----------



## 2full

I'm really torn on getting the vaccine shot with all the medical crap I've had to go thru the last year+.
I have another procedure tomorrow with the urologist. I'll talk to him about it then. 
With the retail job I had I know I got exposed many times. Pretty sure I had it last August. 

But, I do get confused quite often. :mrgreen:


----------



## Vanilla

2full said:


> I'm really torn on getting the vaccine shot with all the medical crap I've had to go thru the last year+.
> I have another procedure tomorrow with the urologist. I'll talk to him about it then.


I think that is the key. People who are worried should talk to their own doctors that know and understand their individual situation, and get advice from them. What I say on the topic is really irrelevant to you and your circumstances.

From what I hear, most medical professionals are recommending their patients get it. Yours may suggest otherwise for you.


----------



## Catherder

MrShane said:


> Is that question directed to Mockingjay, or the rest of us?


Do zombies use the "gutless method"?


----------



## 2full

So I ended up getting the Johnson + Johnson shot yesterday. When i talked to the Doc, he was good with me getting the shot with what I have going on. 
Both the Doc and the nurse had had theirs. 

So far I feel pretty normal.....which is a relative term for me. 
No Zombie instincts yet, just a sore arm from the shot. 

It's was much less painful than the procedure that the Doc did on Tuesday. 
He did what they call a Blitz Biopsy on my prostate. They take 30 bites from the prostate. The was NOT cool to say the least. Feel better today but Tuesday was rough. Yesterday wasn't as bad, but was still pretty sore. Waiting for the results to come back. 

Do your yearly tests everyone. It probably caught my prostate cancer early enough, and would not have known about the bladder cancer until it would have been too late.


----------



## Vanilla

Hope you recover quickly, 2Full! 

And the J&J vaccine is different technology. It isn't the zombie vaccine. It's the one that has AIDs in it.


----------



## bowgy

Good luck 2full, we are pulling for you.


----------



## DallanC

Yea good luck 2full.

I just started doing some of "those tests", got checked and walked out with $1100 a month in prescriptions. LOL... no F'ing way I'm paying that. Insurance Co wont cover them... told them to find something else, period. Insurance came back with one alternate, $0.75 a month (I kid you not... from $525 to under $1), the other alternate is $75 (down from $575). Really feels like Doctors are getting a kickback to push certain meds over others.

PS: Getting old sucks.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

I had a really serious ear infection several years ago. The drops prescribed were going to cost me about $150 out of pocket. The pharmacy called me and told me if the doctor would prescribe them as eye drops, it would only cost me $40 out of pocket.

The EXACT same medication and same amount of the medication. The doc simply had to call it eye drops instead of ear drops to save me over $100. Yes, the system is seriously screwed up! Insurance companies and health care providers (not necessarily the docs, but their bosses) are taking us to task in a big way. “This is the price contracted with your insurance company.” I’ve heard that a time or two.


----------



## CPAjeff

Good luck 2full!

My wife got her first shot on Tuesday and complained about body aches from late Tuesday night through last night. Wondering if I should be prepared to find a zombie in my house when I get home from work today . . .


----------



## Critter

Just don't complain about dinner when it is brains.

On the drug front, wait until the insurance company changes the schedule on a drug that you have been taking for a dozen years to where they don't cover it anymore 

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## 2full

The shot hasn't bothered me at all I feel just fine. But one of the other guys that got one yesterday at the same place has been sicker than a dog. 
And yes, the Doc's do get kickbacks. My wife worked for one for 10 years before she went to the police department. 
The drug salesman took us to several swank dinners as rewards for "drug sales". Esp the pain pill guys. 
The Doc later did some jail time........


----------



## backcountry

First shot scheduled! I can't wait to enter friend's houses again. Everyone in our closest circle will be vaccinated by the end of April. 

Can't wait to enter the next phase of this long experience.


----------



## Vanilla

I recently “recovered” from covid. I tested positive after being exposed and developing a very minor cough. Due to rules from the schools, if I isolated from family they would only have to quarantine and stay away from school for 10 days. So I remained in the master bedroom, the rest of the family had the rest of the house. I never had a fever. I never was tired. I never had anything other than a minor cough and a little bit of stuffiness. I did lose my taste, but only for 3 days. I’m very thankful I didn’t have worse symptoms, but it was frustrating not even being able to hug my wife and kids or talk face to face with them for 10 days when I felt fine. But we made it through and as of a few days ago we are among the land of the living again.

I did a little hiking last night and this morning, and I can tell you that even though my felt symptoms were very mild to non-existent, there is a difference in my lungs. It was a very different feeling on some pretty mild trails. I had to visit Corona Arch to commemorate coronavirus.


----------



## CPAjeff

Vanilla - glad to hear you are among the living again! We hit the 'Rona Arch a little bit ago . . . cool place.


----------



## Catherder

Nilla, sorry to hear you got it, but glad to hear about the recovery. It's crazy how it seems to hit each person differently. I guess that puts a hold on you going zombie mode via vaccination. 

Sounds like you are well on your way and hope to see you out on the water and afield soon.


----------



## 2full

Hope you get feeling normal again. 
We don't need anymore Zombies 😂


----------



## Critter

I got my second shot on Saturday, Sunday I felt tired but not so bad that I couldn't do what I wanted to do. 

That was until I sat down in my recliner and woke up a hour later. But that chair has that effect on me whenever I sit down in it.


----------



## Vanilla

Critter said:


> I got my second shot on Saturday, Sunday I felt tired but not so bad that I couldn't do what I wanted to do.
> 
> That was until I sat down in my recliner and woke up a hour later. But that chair has that effect on me whenever I sit down in it.


They say that the older a person is, the less side effects they are seeing from the vaccine. Just sayin...


----------



## backcountry

Glad you had minor symptoms. I hope your lung function jumps back to normal soon. 

Got my first shot today and I have to say it was a bit emotional. This has been a long ride but to be honest I didn't imagine we'd have a vaccine this soon. Our household will be fully vaccinated by the end of April and our daughter should be getting antibodies if the early data remains accurate. 

It's such a relief to know in a little more than a month we can enter friend's homes again, break bread with those we care about and enjoy a summer of interacting with our community. Looking back is still tough knowing how many people were/are impacted. This virus tooks it's toll.


----------



## Animediniol

Vanilla said:


> They say that the older a person is, the less side effects they are seeing from the vaccine. Just sayin...


Hopefully, as we have numerous senior citizen members in the family.


----------



## DallanC

My son was working last night when a female co-worker who had gotten a vaccine earlier in the day passed out and hit her head on a chair as she fell. She was 18 years old. He said it really freaked out the workers as she was in a mild seizure.

Its a good thing these types of reactions are pretty rare.

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

It appears that there are more reactions the the JJ vaccine than the others. They shut down a site in Denver the other day that was giving the JJ vaccines and I read this morning that someplace back east shut down after giving it. 

Some that had reactions ended up in the hospital but most were released the same day and sent home. So there was nothing serious that was reported. But anytime a person passes out you need to take it seriously and find out the root cause of what happened.


----------



## DallanC

Yea when he told me last night about it, I asked what vaccine it was. I'd read earlier about the JJ vaccine issues. He didnt know but would ask when he sees her again.

Moderna and Pfizer vaccines seem to be the best ones atm with least side effects and resistance to the coof.

-DallanC


----------



## Critter

When I got my second shot of Moderna I felt fine but a little bit tired the day after. I also had some chills for 2 nights but nothing that the second blanket didn't cure. I at first thought that I was cold from shutting down my heating system in the house.


----------



## Vanilla

Dallan, that's scary. I'd be interested to hear if they can link it to the vaccine. I know these stories are out there, even the lady in Utah that died after getting the vaccine. However, the medical examiner's report stated that she did not die from the vaccine or effects caused by the vaccine. Just terrible timing for those already worried about bad effects, but it looks like her death was not associated with the vaccine at all. Correlation does not always equal causation, as we know. I wonder if this young lady at your son's work had underlying issues that are not related to the vaccine at all? Of course, it's possible it is related too. I just don't want to jump to any conclusions either way.

The preliminary findings of what we are discovering with long term impacts of covid are not pretty either. Mental health issues, increased risk of stroke, heart disease, etc. It seems like we are in quite the catch 22 on this whole deal if the vaccine is producing poor side effects (other than just feeling a bit sick for a day...that is really nothing in the scheme of things). Even those that were not very sick at all, and even asymptomatic are seeing longer term damage, which sucks big time.

I know from my experience, I barely felt sick at all. In fact, there was not a single day in my 10 day quarantine after my positive test that I would have even stayed home from work prior to 2020, and I'm not even a hard core "go to work no matter what" guy. Even before the pandemic, when I was sick, I stayed home. That's why I get sick hours to be able to use them, but I did not feel sick at all. I had a very mild cough, usually only in the mornings, but nothing else the entire time. No fever, no aches, no fatigue...etc. I will say, however, that a month later, there is absolutely a difference in my lungs and chest when I exercise. I'm hoping that goes away over time, but there is something different there than before I tested positive, for sure.

We won't really know the long term impacts of this stupid virus for years. Hopefully the impact will not be escalated over time. It's already taken a large toll on so many and on society as a whole.


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> Moderna and Pfizer vaccines seem to be the best ones atm with least side effects and resistance to the coof.
> -DallanC


That seems to be the case, although the J&J vaccine overall hasn't had side effects sufficient to seriously limit its use, although there have been supply issues with J&J. The problem with that is that due to its less demanding handling requirements, J&J is supposed to be the main vaccine for remote/rural areas that aren't near the facilities required for storing the mRNA vaccines. 

The Astra/Zeneca vaccine however, has been having some "issues". 








What The Heck Is Going On With AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 Vaccine?


The AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine has been hailed as the world’s vaccine — it’s inexpensive to produce and doesn’t need super-cold storage like the mRNA vaccine…




fivethirtyeight.com


----------



## CPAjeff

My wife received her second dose earlier this week and has suffered from severe headaches and body aches. Man, she has been a pain in the butt to be around this week! 

There’s a pretty good chance she’ll morph into a Zombie in the next two or three days.


----------



## backcountry

My wife got second dose of Moderna on Monday and was lucky enough to only have very mild side effects. I get mine in 2 weeks. 

I'm glad the CDC finally released guidance on surfaces. It was long overdue but will hopefully help folks like my mom relax their approach a bit. 

It's nice to be opening our bubble up a bit now that we are lower risk and getting vaccinated. We still mask up and socially distance but we got to introduce our daughter to some extended family in SLC area today and meet a friend recently diagnosed with a pretty severe form of cancer. Its just nice to have more confidence in information about the disease and the tools to mitigate it. We'll likely mask up for public spaces for another winter but letting our guard down feels great.

I'm already trying to think of how I'll explain the mural in town with masked individuals to my daughter when she becomes old enough to be curious about such things.


----------



## gander311

My wife, 19 year old daughter, and myself were all lucky enough to get the J&J vaccine a couple weeks ago. We all had a pretty rough 24 hours after, especially my daughter. She got the worst with a migraine, fever, and even threw up. My wife and I both got chills and body aches, but it was tolerable.
Having said that, we’d all get the vaccine again in a heartbeat. We’re looking forward to being one step closer to a “new normal” life. We plan on wearing masks in public for the next while to play it safe for those around us,
But there is definitely a light at the end of the tunnel for once.


----------



## DallanC

Ok this is somewhat scary...





__





New study: Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doesn’t offer as much protection against South African variant






www.msn.com







> They found the South African variant was *eight times more likely* to show up in a patient who had received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine than those who were unvaccinated, Reuters reported.


So it appears its way better to be unvaccinated vs the South African varient than having the Pfizer vaccine. Luckily the SA varient isnt the dominant strain here, and hopefully it stays that way. 

Moderna seems to be the best choice thus far in the vaccine race.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

The conclusion above isn't necessarily supported by the study which explicitly states "our study design was not intended to deduce vaccine effectiveness against either variant, since we observe VOCs conditioned on infection, and do not measure absolute infection rates in the vaccinated or control population". In short, the research wasn't designed to study what was speculated above. The study design has scientific caveats that truly matter in that regard. 









Evidence for increased breakthrough rates of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinated individuals


The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been raging for over a year, creating global detrimental impact. The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine has demonstrated high protection levels, yet apprehension exists that several variants of concerns (VOCs) can surmount the immune defenses generated by the vaccines...




www.medrxiv.org





Hopefully the CDC and FDA are just operating out of an abundance of caution with the J&J vaccine and it
doesn't end up causing such unfortunate side effects. But the system, like VAERS, seems to be working and triggering safeguards for our citizens.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Hopefully the CDC and FDA are just operating out of an abundance of caution with the J&J vaccine and it
> doesn't end up causing such unfortunate side effects. But the system, like VAERS, seems to be working and triggering safeguards for our citizens.


Yeah, I was disappointed to see this this morning. Agreed that the system is working properly in spite of what the conspiracy theory crowd would believe. From what I've read, it may be an issue most seen in middle aged women that are on hormonal birth control or therapy, which by itself can cause thrombocytopenia and clotting issues. I kind of suspect we will see upcoming guidance that women of certain ages and medication usage be counseled to get one of the mRNA vaccines and J&J returning to use for other demographics. 

As for the Pfizer vax against the South African variant, I haven't found any supplemental reading about it. Pfizer seems to work against the nasty Brazilian strain. It is worth reminding when reading any media report about what is being reported. Many times, when "less success" is reported, it does not necessarily mean that the vaccine does not protect against severe disease. Case in point is the J&J vaccine, which reports 70-75% effectiveness, while Pfizer/Moderna report 90%+. That percentage is against clinical disease, not severe disease. All 3 have a high percentage against severe disease. Something to keep in mind as we read vaccine efficacy media stories concerning various variants.


----------



## Catherder

A podcast discussing the J&J situation. 









The Johnson & Johnson Pause Shows The System Is Working


On Tuesday, the FDA announced that they were recommending a pause on administering doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. On the latest episode of our coro…




fivethirtyeight.com


----------



## DallanC

Catherder said:


> As for the Pfizer vax against the South African variant, I haven't found any supplemental reading about it. Pfizer seems to work against the nasty Brazilian strain. It is worth reminding when reading any media report about what is being reported. Many times, when "less success" is reported, it does not necessarily mean that the vaccine does not protect against severe disease. Case in point is the J&J vaccine, which reports 70-75% effectiveness, while Pfizer/Moderna report 90%+. That percentage is against clinical disease, not severe disease. All 3 have a high percentage against severe disease. Something to keep in mind as we read vaccine efficacy media stories concerning various variants.


Totally agree. I just found it interesting. As more people are vaccinated, and time goes by where the results can be studied, it forms a better picture of how effect these treatments are, and potential side effects. Again, I'm not anti-vax, and while I haven't gotten vaccinated yet for covid, I keep an eye on reports and studies that are trying to consume data and make projections based on it. 

Its still really new technology (mRNA) used en-mass, so there will be loads of data come in soon as we hit the 6th month mark and beyond of vaccinations.

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

For those few still playing along:

(Edit: the below is incorrect as pointed out in the thread)

The Pfizer vaccine in question uses a viral vector platform, not mRNA. Viral vector vaccines have been decades in use though I'm less certain about the adenovirus they are using in this case. Obviously even old technology with new variables can cause unexpected side effects though.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> For those few still playing along:
> 
> The Pfizer vaccine in question uses a viral vector platform, not mRNA. Viral vector vaccines have been decades in use though I'm less certain about the adenovirus they are using in this case. Obviously even old technology with new variables can cause unexpected side effects though.


Incorrect. Pfizer is an mRNA vaccine as is Moderna. AstraZeneca and J&J are viral vector vaccines. 

Information about the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine









Understanding mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines


Learn how mRNA vaccines trigger an immune response against COVID-19.




www.cdc.gov


----------



## Packout

The Israel data implicates Phizer because that is the vaccine used in their country. Moderna is currently investing in the development of a booster to combat the S African variant, as is Pfizer. I don't think there is currently a leader between those two- but it surely seems that JJ and AZ are lagging behind. Then we have the China vaccine being pushed throughout many countries, especially in South America, which has little data available and the data they do have shows a lack of sufficient effectiveness. 

The Buffalo Bills say they will sell full stadiums this Fall, but one must present proof of vaccination. I think it will only be a matter of time before many other venues require vaccinations to enter....


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> Incorrect. Pfizer is an mRNA vaccine as is Moderna. AstraZeneca and J&J are viral vector vaccines.
> 
> Information about the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Understanding mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines
> 
> 
> Learn how mRNA vaccines trigger an immune response against COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


Thanks for the correction. I even listened to two podcasts about it this morning and still managed to conflate the two issues. Baby brain is real and I need a week of sleep.

I know I'm ignored, but sorry Dallan for mixing up the issues and improperly fact checking the post. It was ironic and sloppy on my part.


----------



## Catherder

Budweiser giving away free beer to those who get the COVID-19 vaccine


CINCINNATI (WKRC) – The latest company to incentivize getting a COVID-19 vaccine wants to buy you a round! Budweiser, an Anheuser-Busch beer brand, will give a free beer to anyone who has been vaccinatedand enters to win a contest. The popular beer company is even putting out a commercial...




kutv.com





I suppose this is one way to convince folks to get vaccinated.


----------



## Animediniol

Catherder said:


> Budweiser giving away free beer to those who get the COVID-19 vaccine
> 
> 
> CINCINNATI (WKRC) – The latest company to incentivize getting a COVID-19 vaccine wants to buy you a round! Budweiser, an Anheuser-Busch beer brand, will give a free beer to anyone who has been vaccinatedand enters to win a contest. The popular beer company is even putting out a commercial...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kutv.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I suppose this is one way to convince folks to get vaccinated.


They are really desperate to vaccinate the entire population by doing these things. The first company to offer was Krispy Kreme doughnuts and now Budweiser.


----------



## Catherder

Animediniol said:


> They are really desperate to vaccinate the entire population by doing these things. The first company to offer was Krispy Kreme doughnuts and now Budweiser.


I don't know. Looks like the US is doing fairly well with getting people vaccinated. 









Tracking Coronavirus Vaccinations Around the World


More than 5.12 billion people worldwide have received a Covid-19 vaccine, equal to about 66.7 percent of the world population.



www.nytimes.com





Maybe Budweiser and Krispy Kreme could come and help out your country.


----------



## wyogoob

Ted Nugent contracts Covid19





__





Ted Nugent contracts Covid-19 after saying 'it's not a real pandemic'






www.msn.com


----------



## JerryH

Holy Wango Tango!


Funny how everything is a hoax until you contract it.


----------



## Catherder

Hopefully, 'rona doesn't have him in a stranglehold.


----------



## backcountry

April 21st, 2021:. The first, and last time, ever I was disappointed in myself for not knowing a Ted Nugent song.


----------



## wyogoob

At first he thought he had Cat Scratch Fever because he knew that Covid19 was a hoax dreamed up by the whacko, Commie, Fascist, Tree-huggin', baby-killin, devil-worshipping, take all yer guns away, radical Liberals.


----------



## bowguyonly

Anyone else following the news coming out about Fauci and China? The Chinese are willing to prepare for nuclear war because the Biden administration wants to look into the Wuhan lab. 
My question is. Why would 100s of scientists say Covid is a manufactured, engineered virus and China be willing to go to war over it? Lots has come out since Oliboogers madness and a lot of it is coming full circle hate to say 🤦‍♂️


----------



## DallanC

Brett and Heather Weinstein's Dark Horse podcasts just did a deep dive into this. They aren't saying its for sure a engineered virus of course, just showing the science they know of thus far... which more and more points to human engineered.

-DallanC


----------



## High Desert Elk

Stopped watching or even paying attention to mainstream media news awhile ago, so have no idea...


----------



## Catherder

Looking back on the pandemic, a lot of the different phases were greatly affected by the widespread belief of conspiracy theories. That, ahem, definitely showed up here in this thread too. I guess I've had some fascination why. I read this article today that I found quite interesting. It is not excessively partisan, so it can be approved consumption for righties and lefties.  

Why People Fall For Conspiracy Theories


----------



## bowguyonly

chinese defector terrabyte at DuckDuckGo


DuckDuckGo. Privacy, Simplified.




duckduckgo.com





Bioweapon

Wake up

Not a conspiracy. The news lies. Its all been compromised and has been for a long time. 






These aren't people that are going to come out being honest with you. They will use your own goodness against you. Can we honestly tell ourselves our country is as it always has been and covid, Jan6, the economy all of it is just normal? Something doesn't feel off in your gut? 

My gut feels terrible. Then again I ate a bunch of pizza last night. 🙃


----------



## Lone_Hunter

The trouble with conspiracy theories, is two fold:

Some have actual come true in recent years (recent being a relative term). So what was once impossible has become remotely plausible, and what was once remotely plausible has become possible.
Lack of believable news sources to confirm or deny.

This second point is huge. It isn't much of an exaggeration to say that your world view, is in no small part, based on which news sources you watch. On that statement, it's worth pointing out, that ALL news sources live in the left or right hemispheres. Some overtly, others subvertly. The second of which I think the more insidious of the two. They pretend to be unbiased, when they are not, thereby influencing people without their realizing it. Manufacturing consensus. You really have to pay attention to what they report, how they word it, where they locate the report, and the buzzwords they use. If your aware of commonly used buzzwords on either side, you can pick out the biases pretty quickly. 

My end point being that you can have a single event being reported by both the left and right hemispheres (assuming it is being reported by both, this isn't always the case, which is also telling), and the people watching either source will walk away with a completely different interpretations of the same event. In sum, people are living in different and isolated worlds.

Side note: Yuri Bezmenov was right. He called it out awhile ago. If you haven't seen the interview, you should. Some of what he says relates directly to what I just said about the news. 

Back to covid, what is telling is how some of what was outright banned from Youtube, Facebook, and Google, is now being backpeddled. Like Covid coming from a Lab.

If you examine the evidence, the answer is pretty freaking obvious it did. It's no conspiracy, its common sense. A real conspiracy is why the obvious was repressed, and the answer to that lay in personal, political and corporate relations to china... 

Yup, gotta love rabbit holes.


----------



## DallanC

Whats scary is testing is showing that the vaccine isn't staying put in the dense muscle of the arm, and traveling around the body. In a woman, within 48 hours there is a spike in the lipid nanoparticles used in the vaccine gathering in woman's Ovary's. Its hopeful that those particles don't cause any issues but more study is needed.






-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Conspiracies can come true.....when actual evidence that matches the scale of the claim is presented and/or discovered. Those sources don't tend to rely on "red pill" antics.

I love how so many men are fear mongering about the vaccine with claims about women's reproductive systems. That's a trick as old as time.


----------



## backcountry

A signal in the noise:









PolitiFact - No sign that the COVID-19 vaccines’ spike protein is toxic or ‘cytotoxic’


The headline on a YouTube video and a person who speaks in it make a troubling claim about the way the COVID-19 vaccines




www.politifact.com


----------



## backcountry

Looks like my health district represents about a third of the cases. We have an abysmally low vaccination rate. Not shocking given the conspiracy theorists like Eric Moutsos live down here 😬😥🤷‍♂️. 









Driven by delta variant, COVID-19 surges again in Utah


Hospital leaders in Utah called again for people to get vaccinated amid another surge in new COVID-19 cases from the faster-spreading delta variant.



www.thespectrum.com


----------



## Vanilla

Any suffering is heartbreaking. Preventable suffering is downright tragic. But, people have made up their minds. We’ll all reap the rewards from it.


----------



## Catherder

I have a cousin who is hospitalized in Wyoming right now with Covid. He is in his forties. He most likely will make it, but he has a tough road ahead. The rest of his family got it too, but suffered more mild symptoms. His sister told me "no one in Wyoming believes in Covid, so they didn't get vaccinated". Their family believes now. 

At this point, there is not much more that can be said. In spite of a news media ready to breathlessly report any adverse effects, the vaccines are working to keep folks out of the hospital and out of work or activity for extended periods. The shots also have not caused mass casualty events. They have provided us the tools to return to normal life. Most folks, myself included, are ready to return to normal. For reasons I don't fully understand, the highest resistance to vaccinations are from conservatives. Well, a tenet of the conservatism that I cut my political teeth on is individual responsibility. If some folks prefer to believe conspiracy theories, and uncle Deverl on Facebook for their medical advice, that is just the way it will be I suppose. I guess they now get to reap the consequences. My struggle is to feel the collective compassion for the stricken.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Catherder said:


> For reasons I don't fully understand, the highest resistance to vaccinations are from conservatives. Well, a tenet of the conservatism that I cut my political teeth on is individual responsibility.


Not all conservatives are anti-vaxers. My perspective is twofold:
a.) I've been used as a human pincushion so many times in my life, to me it's just one more vaccine to add to my shot record, which spans two pages. It can go right along with Japanese B influenza, yellow fever, typhoid, etc etc. Been on malaria pills too. They come in two sets. You take the first course, then the second. Probably some hydroxychloroquine derivatives. That was a few decades ago, and I haven't keeled over and died yet.

b.) Vaccination should be a personal choice. Do I think people should get vaccinated? Yeah, I guess I do. Do I think people should be FORCED to get vaccinated? Absolutely not. It's kinda like motorcycle helmets. I think not wearing one is stupid, but I support your right to choose not to wear it if thats your thing. Feel the wind through your hair.. i get it. Still stupid, but I get it.

Now I can't resist but one Touche observation: That being how Liberals were anti-vax when the vaccines came out under the Trump administration, but now that the big scary orange man is no longer in the white house sending mean tweets... suddenly the very same vaccines are now not only ok, but encouraged.

Whhheeiiirdddd.


----------



## Vanilla

I think your motorcycle helmet analogy misses the mark. In fact, I think it’s a terrible analogy.

I believe in personal choice and freedoms as well. It downright ticks me off when your personal choices and exercise of freedoms begin to impact me and effect my life. A rider deciding if he wears a helmet doesn’t impact my life directly. A bunch of neighbors refusing to get vaccinated, whether for this or any other general vaccine that prevents community spread of bad diseases, can very well impact me and my family both directly and indirectly.

I don’t let people drink and drive because of the impacts it can have on innocent people. There is a reason for that. And I actually agree vaccines shouldn’t be forced. But if people aren’t vaccinated and can put others at risk, their ability to make decisions about how they interact with others should be limited.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Vanilla said:


> I think your motorcycle helmet analogy misses the mark. In fact, I think it’s a terrible analogy.
> 
> I believe in personal choice and freedoms as well. It downright ticks me off when your personal choices and exercise of freedoms begin to impact me and effect my life. A rider deciding if he wears a helmet doesn’t impact my life directly. A bunch of neighbors refusing to get vaccinated, whether for this or any other general vaccine that prevents community spread of bad diseases, can very well impact me and my family both directly and indirectly.
> 
> I don’t let people drink and drive because of the impacts it can have on innocent people. There is a reason for that. And I actually agree vaccines shouldn’t be forced. But if people aren’t vaccinated and can put others at risk, their ability to make decisions about how they interact with others should be limited.


Actually, the helmet analogy is "spot on". If you get the vaccine and you come in contact with the bug, you cannot give it to anyone else. You are protecting you, not your neighbor. Protecting your neighbor is a secondary benefit. Wearing a helmet is protecting you, not your friends or family. Protecting them from your tragic loss due to a head injury is a secondary benefit for them. 

If you choose not to get the vaccine, you are also choosing to not wear your helmet either. The only one who really gets hurt the most is you...


----------



## middlefork

Weird, I got vaccinated so I didn't have to worry about the other guy.


----------



## Vanilla

HDE- wrong.

Not sure what else to say.


----------



## DallanC

Correct, if you are vaccinated not only can you still get covid19, you can still pass it on to others. The hope is that vaccinated people are more resistant to it, and if they still get it, it is a milder case than without.

Covid is here to stay... forever probably. It will be added to the yearly flu shots people get.

-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> And I actually agree vaccines shouldn’t be forced. But if people aren’t vaccinated and can put others at risk, their ability to make decisions about how they interact with others should be limited.


Ya know.. i remember a class I took a long time ago... interpersonal communication. Yeah, there was a class on that. I can't say I remember everything, but one of the things I remembered, is the word... BUT. When you say something, and then toss out the word but, what you effectively are doing is canceling everything preceding the word but.

So... you do think vaccinations should be forced.

Aside from that, Dallan C is correct. Vaccinations won't keep you from getting the coof. It will keep you out of the hospital as it introduces a means to which your immune system can better respond. Additionally, there has been several recorded instances of someone who had the coof, catching it again.

And I do agree, it is here to stay. Like the flu, it will re emerge every freaking winter from here on out. If that is indeed the case, i'll get my annual coof shot along with my annual flu shot, which coincidentally, doesn't always keep you from catching the flu. Its only effective for certain strains, kinda like the current coof shots. People can get their shot, or not, it makes no difference to me. Personal choice.

In any event, this is the world we live in now, and it's only going to get worse.


----------



## middlefork

Lone_Hunter said:


> Ya know.. i remember a class I took a long time ago... interpersonal communication. Yeah, there was a class on that. I can't say I remember everything, but one of the things I remembered, is the word... BUT. When you say something, and then toss out the word but, what you effectively are doing is canceling everything preceding the word but.
> 
> So... you do think vaccinations should be forced.
> 
> Aside from that, Dallan C is correct. Vaccinations won't keep you from getting the coof. It will keep you out of the hospital as it introduces a means to which your immune system can better respond. Additionally, there has been several recorded instances of someone who had the coof, catching it again.
> 
> And I do agree, it is here to stay. Like the flu, it will re emerge every freaking winter from here on out. If that is indeed the case, i'll get my annual coof shot along with my annual flu shot, which coincidentally, doesn't always keep you from catching the flu. Its only effective for certain strains, kinda like the current coof shots. People can get their shot, or not, it makes no difference to me. Personal choice.
> 
> In any event, this is the world we live in now, and it's only going to get worse.


So yes I agree. But I still got it so I didn't have to worry about the other guy. Which I believe is the point of getting vaccinated.


----------



## backcountry

I'm worried for the underage waiting for the vaccine approval. Viruses clearly mutate and newer variants are showing some unfortunate trends. These reservoirs of unvaccinated citizens threaten us all. 

I'm against forced vaccinations. I'm also against door to door canvassing as it's poorly considered for our current political climate. 

But comparing the reflexivity against trump to anti-vaxxers is junk. The political left made a huge mistake in how they messaged concerns about potential politicking of the vaccine but that's not remotely the same as the nuttery we see on the right about the vaccine at the moment. I mean people are still claiming it's just a cold virus despite 600k fellow Americans dead.

I chose a really bad time to indulge in classic conservative logic. 🤷‍♂️


----------



## backcountry

High Desert Elk said:


> Actually, the helmet analogy is "spot on". If you get the vaccine and you come in contact with the bug, you cannot give it to anyone else. You are protecting you, not your neighbor. Protecting your neighbor is a secondary benefit. Wearing a helmet is protecting you, not your friends or family. Protecting them from your tragic loss due to a head injury is a secondary benefit for them.
> 
> If you choose not to get the vaccine, you are also choosing to not wear your helmet either. The only one who really gets hurt the most is you...


Untrue and reflects how poorly understood true herd immunity is in the lay public.


----------



## High Desert Elk

backcountry and Vanilla, you're both wrong with your "rebuttals"

Vanilla, you get vaccinated to protect yourself, you don't do it for everyone else. The secondary benefit is "herd immunity" when everyone else does it for themselves as well. You're wrong, don't know what else to say. Simply put, you read way more into my post than what was there.

backcountry, I won't even waste my time. I at least have respect for Vanilla...


----------



## backcountry

I'm not after personal respect nor will I dish out petty attacks. 

Herd immunity (grossly defined) is THE PRIMARY GOAL of publicly funded vaccine campaigns. Plain and simple. I got mine equally for myself and to protect my community by reducing the reservoir of vulnerable citizens. If anything I got it more to protect my daughter and parents then myself.

The helmet analogy is pure junk. A helmet provides no physical barrier to anyone else. A vaccine 100% provides physical benefit to others. After 18 months of this bug being around this should be known as it's well established fact. 

For the cynical, the federal government didn't dump billions of dollars into biochemistry and vaccines to protect individuals. They fund these campaigns because having enough individuals vaccinated protects society at large. And enough vaccinated people means those who are vulnerable to severe outcomes have fewer people around them who spread the disease. That equates to reduced fatalities. This is public health 101 and is taught in introductory biology and ecology courses across the country in most colleges. I can't tell you how many times I've seen the zombie game rehearsed in these courses. 

But this exposes the chasm between those who solely think of individual liberty and those who recognize individual liberty can never be isolated from communal impacts. After 600k dead Americans we should have learned this by now.


----------



## Catherder

Two final follow-up comments/takes and I will call it good for now. 

1. While it is absolutely true that prior to the pandemic, anti vax sentiment was prominent on the left, it is incorrect to say that things flip-flopped once Biden assumed office. Due largely to initial administration (and right wing) dismissal of the severity of the pandemic and to hostility from the far right to health measures instituted by both "D" and "R" governorships, conservatives have leaned more unenthusiastic about vaccination even when Trump was in office. Which is weird to me because warp speed was probably Trumps biggest achievement. Case in point is this very thread, where rants about vaccine zombies, Bill Gates, and "They" were spouted well before the election. Obviously, things have remained poor for vax acceptance with this crowd with a "D" in office. I think some folks would rather die than admit they were wrong. 

2. My "take" ,FWIW, on the helmet analogy is that it isn't equivalent, yet. We still have a sizable population, especially here in Utah, that *can't * get the shot. (children under 12) And because children come with families, there is a ripple effect of consequences as the virus spreads to those vulnerable. Once all are eligible for the vaccine and had a chance to receive it, then the analogy may be closer.


----------



## backcountry

I'll never understand how the relative success of Operation Warpspeed wasn't the primary platform literally in the middle of a global pandemic. Can we imagine how many less people would have died between October and February had that been the focus in the early autumn? I lost a lot of respect for some on the political left for their games around the topic yet they at least came around to a different course when challenged. 

600k+ people didn't need to die. And we could have this thing largely in the bag by now. Unfortunately, what started the topic's most recent flare up, my area is sitting around 30% vaccination. And that can be directly tied to misinformation campaigns like "scandemic" and indirectly tied to the failure by key leadership to encourage and prepare certain demographics for vaccination early last autumn. 

Utah was lucky to have thoughtful leadership at the state level then. My county exposed the failure of ours.


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> Ya know.. i remember a class I took a long time ago... interpersonal communication. Yeah, there was a class on that. I can't say I remember everything, but one of the things I remembered, is the word... BUT. When you say something, and then toss out the word but, what you effectively are doing is canceling everything preceding the word but.


That’s a fun little catch phrase and talking point. I’ve heard that before, and I don’t doubt the class mentioned it, *BUT* it’s not true. I’ll let whomever wants to look up the definition of the word “but,” and they can see that the fun talking point doesn’t actually pan out.




Lone_Hunter said:


> So... you do think vaccinations should be forced.


Nope, I don’t. I’m very much against that, *BUT* just like my parents always taught me- I’m free to make my own choices, *but* I don’t get to decide the consequences of those choices. I swear it used to be a very progressive deal to not believe in accountability, and now the right is espousing it with vigor! Very confusing, if I’m being honest.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

And here we go... expect "vaccine hesitancy" to start skyrocketing. This bit of info is going viral. Politifact went into damage control mode on it yesterday. I think so far it's coming from the fringes, but it will make its way mainstream soon enough.








BREAKING DISCOVERY! The ACTUAL CONTENTS Inside Pfizer Vials EXPOSED!


Scientists have examined the Pfizer 'vaccine', and what they found was HORRIFIC...It's Poison! www.StewPeters.tv | www.DrJaneRuby.com




rumble.com




Accurate or true or not I don't know. It really boils down to researching the history of Graphene Oxide as used in medicine. New or not? Saw some articles dated way before covid.

Anywho, more gas for the dumpster fire.



Vanilla said:


> I swear it used to be a very progressive deal to not believe in accountability, and now the right is espousing it with vigor! Very confusing, if I’m being honest.


It's not espousing a non belief in accountability. It just occurred to me where this anti-vax sentiment from the right is originating from. The belief that the pandemic was either planned and done on purpose, or blown out of proportion. Think about it, for weeks we were all told it could be the next black death. Millions will die. etc etc. All news outlets were stoking fear, doom, and gloom for ratings. Looking at the death percentages.... not really the black death was it?. What is the actual death rate as a percentage? I don't care enough to look it up, but I recall it being roughly on par, or less then, seasonal flu. Additionally, recent revelations that Covid came from a lab which is a reversal of previous positions by MSM and big tech, only reinforces those beliefs.

Now... lay all that down as a foundation, and throw vaccines on top of that, now strongarm people into getting it, and of course people are going to throw a fit, or not want to get it.

I know a lot of people who view this as the politics of fear, and they aren't buying it. They view it as being manipulated by fear into doing something, they view it as being a sheep. (Personal note: My parents are boomers and are on the anti-vax train. Both I and my wife are Gen Xers and got vaccinated, ALL of us are conservative, made for some interesting campfire discussion, lemme tell ya)

Scroll back up to that rant I did about the media. There is absolutely no reliable news sources anymore. Not CNN, Not MSN, Not fox news, NONE of them. There is no objective news media in this country anymore. Period. It's a matter of picking what tickles your ear.

And that's about as objective as your going to get from me before my morning pot of coffee. What you got last night, was after several beers. I find my alcohol consumption has been increasing watching the news.

EDIT:
This may exemplify my point on right wing perpsective on covid and vaccines. It will ruffle some feathers here, but if you really want to know what some people on the right are thinking, here you go. I think it fallout from politicizing something that shouldn't have been poltiicized.


----------



## backcountry

We'll repeat for the people in the back: Covod-19 is not really comparable to the flu.

US case fatality rate 17ish months into pandemic: 1.8%

Average flu season CFR in US: 0.1 to 0.2% ish









Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center


How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.




coronavirus.jhu.edu










Past Seasons Estimated Influenza Disease Burden | CDC


These page includes information about the estimated burden of influenza from past seasons, including tables of the estimated influenza disease burden (and 95% credible interval [Cr I]) by age group.




www.cdc.gov





On a bad year, like 2017-18, we are estimated to lose upwards of 100,000 fellow Americans from death to influenza. That is from an estimated 45 million infections nationwide. That equates to a 0.2% CFR from estimates.

So far we've lost more than 600k Americans to Covid-19 from a known 33.7 million cases. The full disease burden is yet to be known or truly estimated as it, like influenza, will takes years of analysis to study. Covid-19 is from a novel virus whose long term health impacts currently remain unknown. It could literally take decades before we know the full range of sequala. We can hope after a few years that we'll be able to manage Covid-19 like influenza but it's currently unknown how many variants we'll be fighting and how long it will take to stabilize those seasonal fluctuations. It's even possible (given current trends it remains improbable) we could eradicate it from broad human circulation if enough people worldwide become vaccinated but we simply don't know, yet.

The flu comparison has been a red herring designed to try rhetorically minimize the true risk of COVID-19. Not necessarily by commenters here but by those pushing misinformation across the internet and other mediums. They remain largely incomparable more than a year into this pandemic. Sadly the misinformation can be directly and indirectly attributed to behavior and choices that have led to undo disease burden. Too many Americans have fallen for these gimmicks and that's led to a massive loss of life.

Once again... we didn't need to lose this many Americans and we can still reduce the future loss of life through vaccination and education. That can happen by stopping the spread of misinformation and bogus internet claims. It's not too late.


----------



## Vanilla

Wow. Just….wow.


----------



## backcountry

Well that video was a waste of time other than it exposes some folks are further down the rabbit hole than I expected.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

You know, It just hit me, I don't think some of you fully appreciate how divided the country is, and this division is running DEEP. Perspective on covid and vaccines is but one example of this division.
Here's another example as of yesterday:





utah blm american flag is racist at DuckDuckGo


DuckDuckGo. Privacy, Simplified.




duckduckgo.com





Covid is still on my list of things to worry about, but until the next flu season hits, it's on the bottom of my list. SInce i'm such a racist *******, I hung my flag yesterday in response.

As a country, and as a people, we are in for some hard times ahead of us. It isn't going to get any better anytime soon.


----------



## BPturkeys

I am fully vaccinated...so

Why won't some people get vaccinated ...don't know and don't care
Will the epidemic rage on amongst the unvaccinated ...don't know and don't care
Will there be lots of unnecessary suffering and deaths amongst the unvaccinated ...don't know and don't care
Will the world ever get Covid under control or will we always have the two worlds of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated ...don't know and don't care

Simply put, Covid, vaccinations, personal responsibility, personal freedom, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, ... Don't know and no longer care!


----------



## backcountry

Our country is definitely divided. I don't know a single person who isn't aware of that fact. It sucks and extremist on both sides seem hellbent on escalating that fact.

But more misinformation and horrible media sources only makes that worse.

People are clearly burnt out yet we are still in the middle of a pandemic. My sense of patriotism and my values require me to not stop caring if I want to keep my integrity. My conservative values tell me the way to reduce government influence is to step up and increase my responsibility to my community. That's a principle reason I got vaccinated, not a secondary one. Iron Co is small but we lost 37 people which is sad for our size. One person on my street died so its literally close to home. He had a few good years ahead of him but now his wife is a widow. We lost two in our extended family. And more explicitly, my daughter's passive immunity has an expiration date and vaccines won't be available for such youngins for a while. The actions of my community will directly impact my household and it's discouraging how little accountability they have in this regard. 😥


----------



## DallanC

The point I was making about the lipids and other parts of the vaccine moving around in the body and gathering in different spots, was raised by Robert Malone himself, after seeing results of data being gathered by researchers. 

He's the guy that basically invented the field of mRNA therapeutics. 

When the inventor of a technology raises a red flag, I don't understand the pushback from the left, and major media to discredit him. I was going to post some of his extremely interesting interviews discussing issues with this, but as fast as they get posted, Youtube pulls them down.

The hope is these particles are benign and wont cause any issues, but longer term study is needed. What is known for certain now, is the vaccine doesn't remain in the dense muscle as originally planned, and is detectable in other parts of the body after a short time.

People should be able to access all facts, and make informed decisions on their own. /shrug

-DallanC


----------



## Brettski7

DallanC said:


> Correct, if you are vaccinated not only can you still get covid19, you can still pass it on to others. The hope is that vaccinated people are more resistant to it, and if they still get it, it is a milder case than without.
> 
> Covid is here to stay... forever probably. It will be added to the yearly flu shots people get.
> 
> -DallanC


Nailed it. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## backcountry

For those who care about facts....Robert Malone was in a video that removed from Robert Weistein's YouTube page because Ivermectin was pushed medically which broke their policy. It wasn't censored because Dr Malone was asking hard questions. As a former scientist he should be cautious playing with unfounded remedies especially given the irony of his complaints.

The allegations about the dangers of mRNA vaccines are largely untested in regards to the actual claims. Everyone should recognize the vaccines were approved under emergency use authorizations but those go through trials as well. In fact the trial studies continue to analyze current medical responses. Dr Malone knows the processes and has the opportunity to actually test his hypotheses. The world is diligently waiting. Until then it's hard to trust his victim culture claims and focus on non-scientific avenues of "information" dispersal.


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## DallanC

Color me shocked... the Robert Malone video is back up. Maybe youtube is starting to get alot of heat trying to hide research being done and published.






-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Lone_Hunter said:


> You know, It just hit me, I don't think some of you fully appreciate how divided the country is, and this division is running DEEP. Perspective on covid and vaccines is but one example of this division.


“Division” is no excuse for crap. Just because we are divided doesn’t change facts. The vaccine could end the pandemic, and the American flag is not a hate symbol. Simply saying “we’re divided” doesn’t change either of those facts. 

Embracing the alternative to either example cited above certainly makes one a whacko though. At least to me.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Vanilla said:


> “Division” is no excuse for crap.


Crap is par for the course in a dividied country. 


> Just because we are divided doesn’t change facts.


Acutally, it does. It shouldn't but it does. Facts to one side, is bullcrap to the other. Lies are repeated until they become truth.



> The vaccine could end the pandemic,


You sound desperate. At no point did I argue against vaccines in and of itself. Only that they shouldn't be forced. Forcibly injecting a foreign chemical into someones body is absolute BS, regardless of reason. Talk about violation of basic human rights. Your own body. As an aside, i'd argue theres a more dangerous pandemic in this country right now, it's a virus of the mind, and it just keeps spreading. You'd think common sense would have stopped it by now, but... nope.



> and the American flag is not a hate symbol.


Not according to the democratic party. Have you read the **** posting their talking heads have been doing over the 4th? Yeahhhh..... LIke I said.. mind virus. Out of a complete lack of literary creativity, and alcohol impairment, I'll call it "Wokevid-21"



> Simply saying “we’re divided” doesn’t change either of those facts.


When one side no longer believes anything the other says.... it does. Two catch phrases that pretty much sums up both sides:
"Facts don't care about your feelings."
and
"Feelings don't care about your facts".



> Embracing the alternative to either example cited above certainly makes one a whacko though. At least to me.


In one of the most commonly used words of my generation....

Whatever. No seriously. No idea what your even talking about, and i don't care enough to scroll up to find out.

I'm going to go pop open another long neck now, pay rent on the last 4 beers, and fire up the grill. Later days.


----------



## Vanilla

Wow. Just wow.


----------



## backcountry

Lone's comments regularly play on the edge of some problematic logic. Observing we are divided is fine yet his subjective reasons expose some rather pernicious ideas about assumed groupings of our fellow Americans. I'm obviously willing to challenge individual ideas and statements but these gross stereotypes of our fellow citizens are having a brutal impact during this pandemic.

I hope more people recognize the reason we have public health departments and vaccine campaigns is equally about individual health as it is "public health". Using the vaccines to create a bulwark against this disease is our best way out of this pandemic even if we see seasonal variants floating around the globe for years. One of the big reasons we have good and bad flu seasons is vaccines helping us limit the reservoir size for the disease. We can do the same with COVID-19.


----------



## bowgy




----------



## Lone_Hunter

In this age of misinformation from ALL media sources. (Cause seriously, I think both sides have it wrong), my 2 cents worth of assessment:

On Vaccines

Probably keeps you out of the hospital until it looses efficacy in half a year. Otherwise, its a placebo. Your still going to catch the coof regardless.
Probably not as dangerous as pundits would argue, but long term effects won't be known for a decade or so. ( Looking at you Anthrax shot that was being forced in the military starting in 97. )
I'll take it, because I'm in mid life, and it doesn't matter. But I'm not having my daughter take it.

On infection numbers:
- Equal to, or greater then last year.

On lifetime of this pandemic:
- It's here to stay. Like the seasonal flu. Numbers may vary, but it's a fact of life now from 2020 onward.

On politicization (because everything is these days)

Will continue to be used as a political tool.
politicians: Let no crisis go to waste, milk it for all its worth as long as possible.
Media: more divisive dirty laundry for ratings (Don Henley Reference)





On outlook of 2021:
My household ducked it last year, this year I think we are going to experience it first hand.

No remote learning for kid. (mentally unhealthy, kids need to play)
placebo vaccine
prevalence equal to or greater then

This is the reality going forward as I see it. YMMV
Sucking it up, and driving on.


----------



## backcountry

Can't say I understand the placebo vaccine claims given the actual data about preventing infection and major disease are still immensely strong for the mRNA ones.

Agree on some of the other claims, especially the idea that we are going to live with this bug and variants for quite a while. Seems like the "contagion of bad ideas" has won out in the race to vaccinate enough Americans to slow this disease down. The amount of disinformation and misinformation has just been too successful. 

Curious what others are doing with the new mask guidance. Our household had prepared to return to some restrictions this autumn but two months earlier is tough. We are increasing masking again and cancelling gatherings this autumn. 

Our household had a fun 6 weeks before clamping back down. Hopefully our country reorients itself and starts being more community oriented but I'm not holding my breathe. This pandemic had revealed a lot about our national character and one disappointment is the number of people who aren't willing to be minimally inconvenienced to significantly benefit the quality of life of others. I love Cedar but 31% full vaccination rate is abysmal and we are likely to pay the price this winter.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Can't say I understand the placebo vaccine claims given the actual data about preventing infection and major disease are still immensely strong for the mRNA ones.


It may just be a claim based on definitions, thus not worth arguing, but based on the "official' definition, the vax is far from a placebo. In Utah, 90% of positives coming from 42% of the population (unvaccinated), along with 95% of hospitalizations, and almost all of the deaths, render the placebo claim bogus. The case rate in poorly vaccinated areas of the state and nation also render arguments about efficacy ridiculous. 

I fully expect annual boosters will be indicated for the next few years minimum, and felt that way from the outset. The prospect of a booster in 5-6 months doesn't move the needle for me. Besides, my 5g reception has dropped a bar or two since vaccination and I miss that.

As for what me and my family are doing with the mask guidance, we are more lax for sure. I wear a mask at work, which is a large part of my day, but I have only sporadically masked up at the store or when visiting others socially. When with immediate family, we are typically not masked and I can't say I have gone out of our way to socially distance. All of us in our house are fully vaccinated. 

One final addendum, my cousin who was hospitalized with rona has been home but still fatigues easily and sleeps long hours during the day. His ability to work is still curtailed. he wishes he got the shot.


----------



## DallanC

Gotta love the irony of the "left" shouting about Lockdown v2.0, renewed wearing masks and enforced social distancing. But Hey, Obama's huge 60th birthday party bash is fine... with its roughly 600 guests and 200 staff. 

Nothing to see here folks... Do as they say, not as they do.

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> Gotta love the irony of the "left" shouting about Lockdown v2.0, renewed wearing masks and enforced social distancing. But Hey, Obama's huge 60th birthday party bash is fine... with its roughly 600 guests and 200 staff.
> 
> Nothing to see here folks... Do as they say, not as they do.
> 
> -DallanC



No worse than the "right" acting like changes in recommendations are categorically unreasonable even though the Delta variant is a much different and worse beast than what we have dealt with before. 

Neither side has a monopoly on self serving or hypocritical positions.


----------



## backcountry

I know people on both sides of the spectrum being hypocritical and both sides have an anti-vax strain. I've largely filtered out the noise of media politics and its bickering the last few months and tried to refocus on other things. 

Our household is only masking because of my daughter. Vaccines aren't going to be approved for that age for a while. The math is in her favor as far as mild cases go but, without knowing the long term side effects, we are back to playing it real safe. I'm biased as the educated guess (diagnosis by exclusion) is that my vision loss was related to a common childhood virus reactivating in an aggressive manner in my thirties. Given that reality I'm pretty hesitant with novel viruses as I would hate to sign my daughter up for reduced lung capacity or neurological side effects 20-30 years down the road.

I really do wish we could have rallied as a country. We would still have struggles but we could have been proud knowing we did most everything in our means to protect the vulnerable by vaccinating the vast majority of us. Its somewhat selfish as we are no longer a vulnerable household, per say, but do have someone unable to be vaccinated. Herd immunity in its historical sense was a theory designed to help protect households like ours. But that signal got lost in the noise.

Ironically we largely cancelled plans because they coincided with RSV seasons where we were heading and it sounds like projections are bad for this year. We have no interest in potentially exposing our daughter to both a potent covid variant as well as RSV which can be deadly enough on its own. 

Interesting time to be alive. Good reminder how little control we have outside our households. Best to be kind and work within our local community to foster a thoughtful and compassionate civic virtue.


----------



## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> Neither side has a monopoly on self serving or hypocritical positions.


^^ This!

I have to question the sanity of anyone hitching their wagon to “a side” right now. Everyone that does is getting absolutely played right now. Pretty sad to watch. Oh well. Nothing I can do about it, so I try to not spend too much time thinking about it.

I get to head to Florida in 9 days. The epicenter of the delta variant in the world. It’s going to be fun!


----------



## Frank M

I had COVID over a year ago and was concerned about my current antibodies. Thus, a couple weeks ago I scheduled the antibody test for today.

Delta variant has been reported at my SLC workplace. Last night I started not feeling well. (Placebo effect?) Today when I went in for antibody test I added the antigen and PCR test to see if I currently have COVID.

2 of three lab tests say I have no antibodies and no COVID. Third test results will take 2 weeks. Color me skeptic on the lab results because my body says differently and I will quarantine anyway.

My cardio exercises will continue and I will keep shooting the bow everyday. August 21 is too close not to.


----------



## Vanilla

Hope you get feeling better Frank! And I hope you don’t have any lingering effects.

I’m 5 months after my covid bout and my lungs still don’t work properly. I get super winded even walking up two flights of stairs at work. I’ve got well over 200 miles walking/hiking now since April, and I can’t breath any time I hit even a moderate incline. I think I am finally starting to see some minor improvement as there is not nearly as much wheezing sound while inhaling. But that is only a slight improvement. The kicker is I wasn’t even sick at all when I had it. Very frustrating. Weird virus, for sure.

We’ve got an extended family member that has in the hospital (ICU) for many weeks now and is staring down a procedure tomorrow that is supposedly very risky, he may not make it through it. Young, active, healthy guy with no underlying conditions. There has been some news about him and his family locally and even nationally. They were against getting the vaccine prior to their whole family getting covid and now their dad and husband fighting for his life. Now they wish they could go back 6 months and have a do-over, that’s for sure. Great people (seriously, awesome family) that got misguided by bad information. Sad deal.

Stay safe out there everyone.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Catherder said:


> It may just be a claim based on definitions, thus not worth arguing, but based on the "official' definition, the vax is far from a placebo.
> ...
> 
> I fully expect annual boosters will be indicated for the next few years minimum, and felt that way from the outset. The prospect of a booster in 5-6 months doesn't move the needle for me.
> ..


I was being sarcastic. I'm packed to the gills with gallows humor.
My understanding is:


It will NOT keep you from catching the coof.
It will lesson the effects when you do, and thus keep you out of the hospital.
Its effectiveness on variants varies between the three, but generally speaking, not as effective as original variation.
The time period that it is effective is unknown, but preliminary studies coming out indicate 6 to 8 months.

So the only real tangible benefit, seems to be reducing the effects of the virus for a short period of time. Which I'm sure will vary from person to person. As to stopping the spread, It won't, (hence placebo) as this dude found out:

( //// Language warning \\\\\)





Personally, I got the J&J back in April. I expect it's effectiveness will taper off by October or December. Which leads to boosters... seriously.. I haven no desire to mix one vaccine with another. Given the long term effects are unknown, odds are it can't be good it with one of the other two. So If I can't get another J&J as a booster, I ain't getting it. I'd feel too much like a lab rat otherwise. No thanks.


----------



## Frank M

Vanilla said:


> Hope you get feeling better Frank! And I hope you don’t have any lingering effects.


Thank you for the kind words. I hope your wind comes back soon.


----------



## Frank M

Catherder said:


> I fully expect annual boosters will be indicated for the next few years minimum, and felt that way from the outset.


Agree. A guy has to be thinking of the long game, IMO.

Merck, the original patent holder on Ivermectin is working on a new “tweaked” pill so they can patent again.

My long game is Ivermectin (because long term effects are well documented) and then switch to the new pill once it comes out.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

After 4 beers, an evening of watching the news, and some reflection, I have to point two things out as it pertains to covid and the left/democrats.

1. If they are going to start forcing vaccinations, then they have forfeited the abortion debate. What ever happened to _"My body, my choice"?_ Granted that can be flipped on its head against the pro life side of that debate, but still. Where's the consistency? Saving lives? They lost that argument when they decided late term abortions were ok, cause at that point, your definately killing babies. Not trying to turn this into an abortion debate (I honestly have no firm opinion on it), only pointing out the inconsistency in "saving lives" and "pro choice" as it pertains to vaccinations.

2. If public health is a real concern, then why are they pumping thousands upon thousands of illegal aliens throughout the country via bus and plane, many whom are testing postive for covid? Force vaccination, masks, lockdowns, etc etc, on Americans, but Illegals are A Ok to go whereever they want? Again, where's the consistency? (Of course we know the answer, its all about the census and a new voting block)

The truth is they give a rats ass about the American people. It's ALL about wealth, power, and control.


----------



## Vanilla

After a root beer float and some olympics I have some response thoughts.

Government forced covid vaccinations are kind of the boogie man. I keep hearing people talk about if “they” are going to do it, but I’ve never heard “them” say they even wanted to. What are we so worried about?

On top of that, there has always been situations that require vaccination records. I’m over 40 and I had to show my vaccination record for school every year of my life. To serve a mission for my church where I did I had to get poked 7 different times. It was not optional 20 years ago if I wanted to serve where I was called.

Let’s not reinvent history just because our politics make us think one way. None of this is new. We’ve all lived through these types of conversations long before there was ever a global pandemic. I can’t for the life of me figure out why all of this around vaccinations (IE- everything!) was okay for decades upon decades and all the sudden became a problem when we got into a killer global pandemic. Such is the craziness of the human race, I guess. We people are friggin nuts!


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> I can’t for the life of me figure out why all of this around vaccinations (IE- everything!) was okay for decades upon decades and all the sudden became a problem when we got into a killer global pandemic. Such is the craziness of the human race, I guess. We people are friggin nuts!


Because this is a brand new technology with absolutely ZERO long term evidence showing what side effects may present over time? Its so new, its still not even FDA approved. 

The old vaccine technology, using dead virus, has been used and tested for an extremely long time and evidence shows its very safe and successful in fighting an actual virus. That is the type of vaccine you were given in school.

Hopefully, mRNA is proven safe over the long term... thus far it seems to point in that direction, but only many years of peer reviewed studies will prove that.

-DallanC


----------



## 3arabians

Lone_Hunter said:


> After 4 beers, an evening of watching the news, and some reflection, I have to point two things out as it pertains to covid and the left/democrats.
> 
> 1. If they are going to start forcing vaccinations, then they have forfeited the abortion debate. What ever happened to _"My body, my choice"?_ Granted that can be flipped on its head against the pro life side of that debate, but still. Where's the consistency? Saving lives? They lost that argument when they decided late term abortions were ok, cause at that point, your definately killing babies. Not trying to turn this into an abortion debate (I honestly have no firm opinion on it), only pointing out the inconsistency in "saving lives" and "pro choice" as it pertains to vaccinations.
> 
> 2. If public health is a real concern, then why are they pumping thousands upon thousands of illegal aliens throughout the country via bus and plane, many whom are testing postive for covid? Force vaccination, masks, lockdowns, etc etc, on Americans, but Illegals are A Ok to go whereever they want? Again, where's the consistency? (Of course we know the answer, its all about the census and a new voting block)
> 
> The truth is they give a rats ass about the American people. It's ALL about wealth, power, and control.


Well said











Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Vanilla

DallanC said:


> Because this is a brand new technology with absolutely ZERO long term evidence showing what side effects may present over time?


Except for that isn’t true. mRNA is not brand new technology. Here is one article that took me less than 10 seconds to find discussing that very thing. 









How Do We Know the COVID-19 Vaccine Won’t Have Long-Term Side Effects?


One of the reasons some people haven’t signed up to receive the COVID-19 vaccine is that they’re worried there might be unknown side effects that will show up months or years later. Although it’s true there are still a lot of things we’re learning about the vaccines — like how effective they are...




www.muhealth.org


----------



## Brettski7

Lone_Hunter said:


> After 4 beers, an evening of watching the news, and some reflection, I have to point two things out as it pertains to covid and the left/democrats.
> 
> 1. If they are going to start forcing vaccinations, then they have forfeited the abortion debate. What ever happened to _"My body, my choice"?_ Granted that can be flipped on its head against the pro life side of that debate, but still. Where's the consistency? Saving lives? They lost that argument when they decided late term abortions were ok, cause at that point, your definately killing babies. Not trying to turn this into an abortion debate (I honestly have no firm opinion on it), only pointing out the inconsistency in "saving lives" and "pro choice" as it pertains to vaccinations.
> 
> 2. If public health is a real concern, then why are they pumping thousands upon thousands of illegal aliens throughout the country via bus and plane, many whom are testing postive for covid? Force vaccination, masks, lockdowns, etc etc, on Americans, but Illegals are A Ok to go whereever they want? Again, where's the consistency? (Of course we know the answer, its all about the census and a new voting block)
> 
> The truth is they give a rats ass about the American people. It's ALL about wealth, power, and control.


Couldn’t have said it better and you got it right. Doesn’t keep from getting or transmitting, only reduces effects. This is a known and irrefutable fact. Wife has reported more positive cases from those vaccinated recently at work than those unvaxxed. I’ve lived life pretty normal this whole time minus the wearing masks only where and when required. And yes they have absolutely started talking about making the vaccine mandatory. Anyone saying otherwise hasn’t been paying attention. It will soon be mandatory for myself if current talks and plans are approved. Which I’m fine with, because in the chance anything happens, I’ll be covered for the rest of my life as will my family. Many others can’t say the same. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Vanilla

Who is “they” and where are “they” saying this? Can you provide me one article where it says the government is going to mandate all citizens get vaccinated? If that’s true, it shouldn’t be hard to provide a link, for someone that is paying attention.


----------



## dubob

I just noticed - this thread has 2,529 posts over 127 pages. That has to be a record for UWN.


----------



## Vanilla

dubob said:


> I just noticed - this thread has 2,529 posts over 127 pages. That has to be a record for UWN.


Nope. Not even close!


----------



## middlefork

dubob said:


> I just noticed - this thread has 2,529 posts over 127 pages. That has to be a record for UWN.











Well... When is it gonna start??


Just got hit for 300 from AZ.... does anyone know about how long it takes for results to come out after hits? My past experience there is did not draw a thing. I'm losing it not knowing which hunt it is




www.utahwildlife.net


----------



## backcountry

Correct me if I'm wrong but vaccines aren't designed to stop you from getting the virus but instead are designed to stop the spread of the disease. It's hard to judge a product based upon a claim that was never proposed.

That said, the vaccine is exceedingly successful at preventing disease. Few vaccines have managed to do what Moderna and Pfizer have with only two jabs. Yes, breakthrough cases happen but that is predictable and expected. And the vast majority are mild. Are we seeing severe cases even amongst younger people? Yes, sadly that's just probability rearing it's head as vaccinated individuals went back to "normal". 

Per mandates....the government is not requiring vaccination for civilians outside employees. Agencies and private businesses are starting to for employees but that is very different than a broad nation wide mandate which I can't imagine the federal government would do. Employment is a voluntary agreement between parties and for the most part vaccination requirements are likely legal and justified as long as they allow for common exceptions like medical exemptions or justified religious doctrine. Reality is most agencies and businesses are still practicing the carrot and stick method in which people can opt out of the best tool of vaccination but must test regularly. 

I wish I could say the misinformation and disinformation campaigns about the vaccine were new but I can't. What's new though is all of us living through a global pandemic that had killed 600k plus of our fellow citizens. Our economy is proving to be resilient but we'll never get those lives back. But what we can do is do our damnedest to reduce further lives lost.  That's the type of civic virtue our country could be proud of.


----------



## dubob

middlefork said:


> Well... When is it gonna start??
> 
> 
> Just got hit for 300 from AZ.... does anyone know about how long it takes for results to come out after hits? My past experience there is did not draw a thing. I'm losing it not knowing which hunt it is
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.utahwildlife.net


I stand corrected. 😄


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> Except for that isn’t true. mRNA is not brand new technology. Here is one article that took me less than 10 seconds to find discussing that very thing.


Compared to the other well known and studied method of creating vaccines, from dead virus's, yes it is. This is the FIRST time its ever been widely used on humans, and is only allowed under EMERGENCY classifications. It still does not meet full FDA approval. 

A little caution is justified, its not "friggen nuts". Especially when the father of mRNA technology is still to this day, stating this is new tech, and there is NO long term data its safe in humans. For over a year now he's been showing the Japanese Study showing particles of the vaccine quickly moving around the body and building up in specific parts. 

He never said its dangerous... he has always maintained its ridiculous to state it is "safe", when there is absolutely no long term data available to show that.

A lot of this vaccine talk might all be moot. Everyone is fixated on Delta... but its Lambda that people should be fretting over. Resistant to the vaccine and spinning wildly out of control, in some country's accounts for +80 of new infections.

-DallanC


----------



## Vanilla

Dallan, even if I disagree with how you've labeled it, I get what you're saying. And to be fair, I have never once said people can't be concerned about the long term effects of the vaccine. My statement (IE-everything) regarding the discussion around vaccines right now goes well beyond long term impacts. Even the rhetoric about vaccination records, as one example I very specifically talked about and showed that we have ALWAYS had that in our society. Why is it all the sudden an issue? Kind of reminds me about vote by mail. Us Utah County residents (you and I) have been doing that exclusively for years already. It only became an issue last year. Why? Interesting...don't you think? It's not a mystery why, but goes into the category of people are friggin nuts! Yes, we definitely are.

And no, I don't expect there to be long term impacts because this "new" technology has been used for decades and is not new. Not at this scale, but no "new" technology ever gets this scale. This is truly unprecedented. But like mentioned in the article, vaccination issues in the past have manifested in weeks, not years. I trust that will remain the case.


----------



## DallanC

Hey, I didn't realize I'm a Democrat. Amazing the change in tone from President Biden and the Vice President. Its ok to question the vaccine I guess, when it fits your agenda.

I bookmarked the spot in this to start on.





-DallanC


----------



## Lone_Hunter

DallanC said:


> Because this is a brand new technology with absolutely ZERO long term evidence showing what side effects may present over time? Its so new, its still not even FDA approved.
> 
> The old vaccine technology, using dead virus, has been used and tested for an extremely long time and evidence shows its very safe and successful in fighting an actual virus. That is the type of vaccine you were given in school.
> 
> Hopefully, mRNA is proven safe over the long term... thus far it seems to point in that direction, but only many years of peer reviewed studies will prove that.
> 
> -DallanC


This.

The covid vaccines are completely new and different animals. I was hoping to get (and did get) the J&J one because it behaves _more like _a traditional vaccine.

Getting shots is nothing new to me. This is the first half of my military shot record:










You know what else was a new vaccine that had unknown long term side effects?





Anthrax Vaccine Immunization Program - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





I remember when the anthrax vaccine program was started. What a stink it made. Truthfully I was scared to get it myself. I dodged it because I was separating anyway, so i was no longer on mobility status, had one foot out the door, and nobody cared to force the issue on a guy who was checking out anyway. 

There is still a stink about that vaccine amongst veteran circles. Turns out it appears to cause long term health issues, and the government, in traditional fashion is basically, "yeah, sorry about that, buh bye now".


----------



## backcountry

For those who want the real scoop on Robert Malone, who Dallan referenced, here is a link to why you should likely treat his vaccine hesitancy and claims with immense skepticism:





__





Dr. Robert Malone invented mRNA vaccines.


It is Dr. Katalin Karikó and her collaborator Dr. Drew Weissman who are more commonly credited with laying the groundwork for mRNA vaccines.



www.logically.ai





Sounds like he's a legitimate researcher but not a critical player in the Covid-19 vaccines nor does his self-referenced patents show that he inventef mRNA vaccines or critical components.

His videos have also been fact checked multiple times about things like cytotoxicity, etc. Red flags all over the place.


----------



## Catherder

As if you need another reason to get vaccinated. 









Over half the deer tested in Michigan have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2


A survey of wild deer finds a lot of antibodies that target the virus.




arstechnica.com







Looks like rona will find you even when you go deer hunting.


----------



## Brettski7

Vanilla said:


> Who is “they” and where are “they” saying this? Can you provide me one article where it says the government is going to mandate all citizens get vaccinated? If that’s true, it shouldn’t be hard to provide a link, for someone that is paying attention.


You didn’t state “all citizens” in the post I was referencing. You just said they weren’t, which they are. There are discussions about making it mandatory for government workers already. That is in fact the government mandating people get the vaccine. Just because they are government workers doesn’t mean they aren’t citizens. I am sure state governments will follow suit if there aren’t already ones already doing like say Cali. That is again, GOVERNMENT mandating citizens getting vaccinated. And yes I’m actually paying attention, I’m glad you recognized that. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Vanilla

Brettski7 said:


> You didn’t state “all citizens” in the post I was referencing. You just said they weren’t, which they are. There are discussions about making it mandatory for government workers already. That is in fact the government mandating people get the vaccine. Just because they are government workers doesn’t mean they aren’t citizens. I am sure state governments will follow suit if there aren’t already ones already doing like say Cali. That is again, GOVERNMENT mandating citizens getting vaccinated. And yes I’m actually paying attention, I’m glad you recognized that.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


“You’re sure” states are going to follow suit, but you can’t link a single article with anyone saying that?

Isn’t that, in fact, the EXACT thing I said? If someone is paying attention you’d have seen it, you said. I’ve been paying attention, I haven’t seen it. I’m willing to let you show me, though. Not conjecture or assumptions, but actual talk about mandating wide spread vaccination. Employers have always had the ability to put restrictions and conditions on employment. Don’t bring employment into this. It’s not what I’m talking about and you know it.

Show me what I’m missing. I’m willing to learn. If “they” are, show me.


----------



## backcountry

That's a great example of how these claims spread and get silly. We all know the fear mongering is about mass vaccine mandates for the general public but when pushed for examples it's things like hospitals and the VA. 

The chances of a federal mandate for all citizens approaches zero. Not only is it likely unconstitutional but no one currently in the federal government desires to use their thin line of political capital on such on such an egregious idea. 

And employment requirements are a completely different issue. Yes they are citizens but they have entered a voluntary relationship which can be contracted with certain prerequisites.


----------



## bowguyonly

I tried to upload the excel file from vaers.hhs.gov ( vaccine adverse event reporting system ) but it won't let me. They estimate they only get 10% (probably off on that) of doctors actually reporting. Even without that number, they show nearly a half million adverse reactions.
Previous vaccines would have less than 100 and pull the vaccine.

Just wanted to point this out.


----------



## backcountry

Ah, another misinformed post from Bowguyonly.

The VAERs system is the data dump for any adverse reactions after vaccination. Its not peer reviewed for correlation. Its raw data for anything a doctor observes or notes that COULD possibly related to an inoculation. Eventually, normally pretty fast for serious events, the relevant organizations use that data to analyze it to see if trials missed any adverse side effects. After such analysis THEN you can compare to other statistics about other vaccines as that would be an apple to apple comparison. And for historical comparison, its a system that's only been in place since 1990.

I'm guessing Bowguyonly's post is indicative of a fundamental ignorance of this fact as I doubt he's a creator and purveyor of intention disinformation. The VAERs reporting system is exposing a flaw as it wasn't designed in a way for the lay public to draw medical conclusions about the safety of a vaccine even if it was designed to be transparent. Unfortunately his post exposes how folks are misusing the resource to spread doubt, misinformation and disinformation. That is a HUGE problem we have to address as a nation.

I never thought I'd ever say this phrase....but BowGuyOnly's use of the Nuremberg Code is laughable at best. Nothing about these vaccines and their trials violates the code. Trials experiments were conducted by experienced professionals, the participants were consenting volunteers and they passed stringent ethical boards. On top of it, as Catherder has stated multiple times, the underlying vaccine infrastructure is only new in human use as they have been researched on animals for years. That high level of work and interest is why these particular vaccines were able to be developed so fast. These particular vaccines also passed animal trials in 2020. The Nueremberg post is utter garbage (just like previous comparisons to Germany and Nazis were). Some ideas don't deserve any respect as they inherently disrespect the provenance and history of the comparison.

Bowguyonly's post is a prime example of how the internet is clogged with absolute crap on this subject and needs a good plunging.


----------



## backcountry

Deleted: accidental post


----------



## bowguyonly

A government website setup in the 90s after congress passed a law saying the vaccine companies cannot be held accountable for vaccine damage isn't to be regarded as information for doctors to input adverse vaccine related incidents in which was setup and intended for that use? What planet are you living on my friend?

Nuremberg Code. Are you saying what they're doing in Sydney, Israel, Pakistan New York....doesn't fall under Nuremberg Code? They aren't forcing experimental vaccines to have the app pass in order to go certain places and the vaccine has been tested and proven safe, not experimental, people aren't forming blood clots, the protein prions building up in their vital organs, the strokes, heart attacks, all of that even in very young children is not happening and does not fall under Nuremberg violations?

Do you have a list of what is in each vaccine?

You don't have much ground to stand on when you don't even know the other side. Have you seen the videos of young people who've taken the shot and now have epilepsy saying they want to hurt themselves but shake too much? Have you seen the young girl that took the shot and had her hands and feet cut off shortly after from clotting? There are hundreds if not thousands of these stories of healthy people becoming incredibly sick or dieing. Have you seen people who have become magnetized? Have you heard or read about America's Frontline doctors? Ya know, the ones who were censored off the internet for telling the truth the way your trying to do it to me regarding truth as bunk?

My friend, there is more to this than what you're seeing. Look at the other side.

Don't ever place your own decency onto someone else.

Refwrence the study in which the animal trials were done for me. Please. I'll reference mine as soon as you do. Mine show mice and ferrets having blood clots and dieing. Not all. Some developed cytokine issues and died as soon as they were exposed to the virus they were supposed to be protected from.


----------



## bowguyonly

The study you referenced. It's from 2020? What are the long term side effects?


----------



## backcountry

My understanding is the liability waiver for vaccines didn't happen until the PREP Act of 1995. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Let's start with a few basic facts.

1) Sadly the Nuremberg Code isn't officially codified here or elsewhere. That said most nations and scientific organizations have as stringent, or more so, ethical guidelines for research and human experimentation.

2) The Nuremberg Code came about, ie its provenance and history, because of some of the most heinous human experimentation in our time if not time in general. Any reference to breaking such code should keep that in mind, especially since its a homeless and rather antiquated standard not utilized by most of the world.

3) As stated, most of organizations have a stringent IRB protocol that is overseen by a board of relevant professionals (sometimes with a civilian in a public oversight capacity for transparency). These boards normally create and oversee any of the organization's human experiments. Not to mention the FDA in the USA has a direct role in exacting protocol for vaccine development, trials and approval that goes above and beyond the Nuremberg Code (hence the antiquated remark). The vaccines went through multiple layers of ethical review of their trial protocols.

With those facts in mind we know that your random insertion of the Nuremberg meme is ridiculous from the start. Nothing about the process in the United States' development and emergency approval of the vaccine breaks the Nuremberg Code. Even employment mandates still allow for either religious exemptions, opting out for testing or quitting. Hence it doesn't violate the consent of the public at all. Once again, employment is a voluntary relationship (especially in Utah) and current vaccine mandates for employees don't violate any civil liberties as you have no guaranteed right to employment aside from not being discriminated against based upon a protected class.

You are the best example for criticisms about VAERS feeding misinformation. I'm all for transparency but the system has its weaknesses and misinterpretation by the lay public is one of its doozies.

Since you seem to educate yourself on memes, enjoy this one:


----------



## backcountry

We might need to bring back the bingo cards. I know I had magnetized and America's Frontline Doctors on one at some point. I don't think the first editions had cytokine on them. The misinformation is getting more sophisticated it seems.









The Unfiltered Truth Behind Human Magnetism, Vaccines, And COVID-19


Metal really does sometimes stick to some people's skin. Here's the science of why.




tinyurl.com


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> We might need to bring back the bingo cards. I know I had magnetized and America's Frontline Doctors on one at some point. I don't think the first editions had cytokine on them. The misinformation is getting more sophisticated it seems.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Unfiltered Truth Behind Human Magnetism, Vaccines, And COVID-19
> 
> 
> Metal really does sometimes stick to some people's skin. Here's the science of why.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tinyurl.com



You can't use science to argue with the conspiracy theory crowd.  They won't accept a word of it. The next thing you are going to tell us is that I don't get my extra 2 bars of 5g reception on my phone after vaccination. 🤷‍♀️

As for supposed crazy stuff happening to young people after vaccination, I'm sure that, based on the zeal with which the news media does report vax side effects, we would hear all about any widespread problems. Funny how the issues become more rare as you move away from social media. 

Here is one bad outcome from a credible source affecting younger folks with saddening regularity. 

*Deaths: (August 4th Utah Covid report)*

_We will report 2,479 total deaths, which is eight new deaths reported today._


Female, between 25-44, Cache County resident, not hospitalized at time of death
Male, between 25-44, Utah County resident, hospitalized at time of death
Male, between 15-24, Weber County resident, hospitalized at time of death
Male, between 25-44, Weber County resident, hospitalized at time of death


----------



## Lone_Hunter

There really aren't any credible sources anymore. That's the thing. Even statistics can be argued one way or another. News media bias has been something I've been cognizant of, even back when I considered myself something of a centrist. Nowadays, the bias is more polar opposite, and anything pretending to be in the center, really isn't.

Examples being:
CNN - Hard left
KSL - Progressive, middle left, while attempting to maintain an image of objectivity.
FoxNews - Hard right, controlled opposition

KSL currently, is how CNN used to be. I used to read CNN quite a bit some years ago, so I'm fairly confident in that assessment. Academically, English and creative writing were my best subjects. Many years ago, I actually used to write stories - for fun. In college, writing for me was a breeze. Last one in, first one out, and got A's without even trying. Also, I have a family member who's made a career out of the news. Used to work for the NY times, currently works for the LA times, and that's all I'm going to say about that. My point being, you can't bull**** a bull****ter. Wordsmithing. Choice of words matter. How you construct the sentence matters. Story titles matter. Where the story runs, matters. All subtle details and nuances that effect the way you think or perceive something, or get you to read it. We think in language, control the presentation, context, flow of information, and you can manipulate thought. That's no conspiracy, its human nature.

Backing up a bit, looking up the definition of credible:








Definition of CREDIBLE


offering reasonable grounds for being believed; of sufficient capability to be militarily effective… See the full definition




www.merriam-webster.com




_offering reasonable grounds for being believed _Synonym_: Believeable_

Wordnik defines it as:








credible — definition, examples, related words and more at Wordnik


All the words




www.wordnik.com




Capable of being believed; believable or plausible: _synonym_: * plausible*. 

Yeah, I know, all semantics. Here's the thing: 
Any media outlet puts out something, and the first thing to look at is their sources.
If you look, often you'll see that the sources they use are ideologically like minded. If sources in and of themselves are not impartial, it taints the entire article. In this age of hyper polarization and cancel culture, bias, both real or perceived, will be found in any cited source.

Furthermore, If a media outlet consistently puts out news slanted one way. (CNN / FOX) and constantly writes opinion hit pieces, that taints the entire outlet.

Taking KSL as an example, ALL of their articles are either generated inhouse, or from sources like AP and CNN. I'm not sure, but I think KSL is actually owned by a larger company that also owns said outlets. In any event, you will NEVER see KSL cite an article from a known conservative outlet like fox - ever. That gives KSL a leftist tinge, aside from their careful curation of their comment section.

Do you see the point I'm trying to make here? Finding objective and unbiased truth, about anything in this day and age, actually takes work. You have to look at both left and right sources, compare, contrast, and compile an accurate report yourself. Frankly, I'm exhausted. I used to check both, but no longer. I haven't in some time, because I just don't care anymore.

As an aside, this is somewhat relevant as it pertains to news, I've linked it 5 minutes and 11 seconds in for the applicable quote: (to about 5:50)


----------



## bowguyonly

My story on the Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate at BYU Hawaii. Please share t... | TikTok


279.4K Likes, 16.9K Comments. TikTok video from liv.sandor (@liv.sandor): "My story on the Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate at BYU Hawaii. Please share this with others. This is not okay. #foryou #covid19 #guillainbarresurvivor #vax". original sound - liv.sandor.




www.tiktok.com





Rejected from BYU Hawaii for no vaccine. 
Nuremberg violations or not? Borderline for sure. 









Mother Gives Desperate Call For Help After Daughter Injured By COVID Vaccine


Twelve year-old Maddie was enrolled in the Pfizer vaccine clinical trial. She’s now in a wheelchair, has an NG tube, and is suffering from severe memory loss, along with many other issues.




freeworldnews.tv






[URLThis poor girl. So many stories like this out there. I feel terrible for her.
unfurl="true"]https://fredbrownbill.wordpress.com...ploding-in-heaviest-vaccinated-countries-why/[/URL]

Very strange even the vaccinated have to wear masks again in our country. This administration is trying for it at least. Thank God for states rights. 









A Final Warning to Humanity from Former Pfizer Chief Scientist Michael Yeadon


Source (and mirror/download links): https://planetlockdownfilm.com/full-interviews/ FLCCC's COVID Prevention & Treatment Protocols: https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/ Ivermectin for COVID-19, summary of the current research: https…




www.bitchute.com





Dr. Yeadon...not sure how much closer to the horses mouth someone can get. Watch the entire video. He lays all of it out. From the medical side to the world government aspect to censorship. I've known people who work for our local news. They are told what they can and cannot report on regarding covid. Why is that? They are lying to us. People with a lot of power, control and money are coming after everyone. It sounds insane but the more insane it sounds the more people will reject it. How does someone get away with a lie? Make it so big nobody will believe it. 

All of us are on the same side. If someone decided to get vaccinated, that is your choice. If someone decides not to, that's their choice. I just hope everyone fully understands the bigger picture of what is going on with Covid. 

There is a ton of information backed by tons of reliable professionals out there. Most people only hear and see what the powers that be want them to hear and see. Especially now big tech is censoring the internet more and more. The CDC thinks even it has power to stop the other side from speaking. 

We are all together here. If we aren't, how else are we going to produce solutions to the bigger issue? People all over the world are up in arms from what is being literally forced upon them in some cases.


----------



## bowguyonly

All of these relate to the covid and this thread. History is repeating itself in a big way.

There are evil, ultra rich, super powerful people in this world who do not deserve our goodness to be placed upon them what so ever. People thought Adolf was a good guy at one time providing health care, child care, jobs, motorcycles all sorts of stuff(I've watched interviews of people talking about this time in history). Then what happened?
Our government is printing free money and handing it out like candy for what? In the name of covid to stay home? Hardly anybody works compared to two years ago. What comes next in the playbook of history?

Anywho. Best of luck this hunting season.


----------



## backcountry

bowguyonly said:


> Hardly anybody works compared to two years ago.


Another absurd claim as the difference in employment is roughy 3% from the peak of 2020. It would appear the statistics once again don't bear out your claims.

At this point it's comical.


----------



## backcountry

Michael Yeadon, a case study in a fallen professional? How many times can a person seemly guess so poorly and still be believed by anyone? 









The ex-Pfizer scientist who became an anti-vax hero.


The ex-Pfizer scientist who became an anti-vax hero.




www.reuters.com


----------



## bowguyonly

backcountry said:


> Michael Yeadon, a case study in a fallen professional? How many times can a person seemly guess so poorly and still be believed by anyone?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The ex-Pfizer scientist who became an anti-vax hero.
> 
> 
> The ex-Pfizer scientist who became an anti-vax hero.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com








reuters propaganda at DuckDuckGo


DuckDuckGo. Privacy, Simplified.




duckduckgo.com





You quoted reuters? Like I said, powerful people are controlling and censoring the internet.
You may as well quote CNN. By the way, Google keeps truth off their search engine and propaganda running. You will only hear and see what they want you to hear and see unless you actually step outside of their matrix they've placed everyone in.

Did you even watch the video? He explicitly points out how the news tries to discredit and blacklist anyone telling the truth, including actual doctors like America's Frontline doctors. Heads of major medical universities have come out saying what he is saying too. The talking heads on TV and big tech all. ALL say the same garbage to keep people like you complacent. Most doctors are afraid to lose their jobs, so they stay quiet about what oddities they are seeing in their profession. Yeadon has been with big pharma for decades. And you believe reuters or Wikipedia? Both are in lock step with the same narrative. I found another interview with Dr Jane Ruby and a lady who prepared paperwork for the lawyers of big pharma companies to present to their board members. It's disgusting what they know and are hiding about the vaccine. Yeadon was a chief medical officer for big pharma and you go with reuters? That alone proves censorship and annihilation of free speech. 

You're still only seeing your side. Step out of the echo chamber. Listen to what he is saying. Start putting the pieces together. It is getting more difficult to deny the truth and all sorts of people are starting to realize something isn't right.

Are so many countries protesting like crazy for no reason? Is it just here in Utah that all is well? I have a hard time believing that. If you've been paying attention, the supply chain is breaking down and people who weren't starving around the world are now starving to death. Only a matter of time before our untouchable country sees similar. And it's all because to covid. It can't go on forever like this.

It's okay to have been deceived. Continuing in the deception is what is devastating.

Have a nice day my friend backcountry. =)


----------



## backcountry

I can't remember a time I ever said this, sincerely, but...we aren't anything resembling friends. There is a reason I reserve unfriendly posts for misinformation and it's to delineate between what I recognize as acceptable disagreement and what is "intolerable". I won't call for censorship or moderation yet I think calling out such behavior at least makes it clear what's outside normal and rational dialoug. 

It comes across as harsh but sometimes, given the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories (vaccines = human magnetization, etc) and the deep trenches lobbing those claims, a little ridicule is the only medicine. Personally I've learned facts don't change that type of individuals mind but laying out the facts can still influence bystanders. Could be wrong, so it goes. It wouldn't be the first time but the stakes are so high right now and this particular strain of garbage information seems particularly virulent. Last I checked we are close to November 2020 levels of infections/transmission (luckily not fatality yet) which doesn't bode well for our nation if this misinformation continues.


----------



## Catherder

Catherder said:


> You can't use science to argue with the conspiracy theory crowd. They won't accept a word of it.


See what I mean? 

Nevertheless, a commendable effort, BC.


----------



## backcountry

Yeah, Catherder, you likely have more wisdom in simply not engaging. I'll own it's one of my soft spots 😬🤣. 

I think this one ran it's course a long while ago. So I'll stop trying to take away your two extra bars of 5G. It might be jealousy as I only got the "flu-like symptoms" parting gift.


----------



## bowguyonly

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423322271503028228
Nothing to see here.

Ignorance at its finest at play. These aren't even real people backcountry. The propaganda machine will blame the unvaxed but if you look to real people without an agenda, the truth is there. Israel has one of if not the highest vaccination rates in the world. They also require freedom bracelets to live in society. That doesn't sound familiar at all. This fall it'll be the vaccinated in hospitals. Hopefully this administration doesn't try to lock us down like they are saying. We should hurry to get the experimental boosters they want people to take. Canada plans for three shots a year through 2024. Almost like they already know it'll keep on going and going and going and going and going and going. ... and going, then make sure it does.

Oh and the CDC says they have the right to our private property now. Magic powers from covid for the CDC. Definitely normal.

This all surface level stuff. You don't want to believe this, you'd definitely not believe where they plan to take all of it.

Every day more and more surfaces. Most people don't want to know but when they're finished I can imagine most people wished they had payed attention.


----------



## bowguyonly

Magnet Sticks to Vaccine Injection Sites in Street Experiment


The Liberty Broadcast tests the viral vaccine magnet trend on 6th Street and gets some very interesting results.




freeworldnews.tv





People aren't magnetized?

You want to censor or report me?










Wow. History...it's pretty crazy. You're a part of history my good good friend. They've effectively controlled the way you think to place you into which camp of history? Not American that's that's sure. Sounds like the left crying because they don't like Dr. Sues so they cancel it. You're a part of cancel culture? Yuck

I'm only trying to help and you're saying such rude things. It's unfortunate to see a fellow citizen go down the path you are going down.


backcountry said:


> I can't remember a time I ever said this, sincerely, but...we aren't anything resembling friends. There is a reason I reserve unfriendly posts for misinformation and it's to delineate between what I recognize as acceptable disagreement and what is "intolerable". I won't call for censorship or moderation yet I think calling out such behavior at least makes it clear what's outside normal and rational dialoug.
> 
> It comes across as harsh but sometimes, given the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories (vaccines = human magnetization, etc) and the deep trenches lobbing those claims, a little ridicule is the only medicine. Personally I've learned facts don't change that type of individuals mind but laying out the facts can still influence bystanders. Could be wrong, so it goes. It wouldn't be the first time but the stakes are so high right now and this particular strain of garbage information seems particularly virulent. Last I checked we are close to November 2020 levels of infections/transmission (luckily not fatality yet) which doesn't bode well for our nation if this misinformation continues.


I want to make sure anyone reading any of this understands that I am not trying to convince you one way or the other right now. I'd hope that you are more informed about making your own decisions.
It's like having two people tell you two stories but you only hear one side and go with that side without giving the other a chance to speak. Why do that? Why would anyone do that?
It's actually worse than that. It's like putting a muzzle on the other person to ensure they can't say anything labeling them as "misinformation spreaders" or "conspiracy theorists" What have we become?


----------



## bowguyonly

It's like Churchill said. Someone says something you don't like, or the main stream talking heads tell you to not like, you come out and start bashing with propaganda. It's really gross. Most people have at the least a conversation. You just flat out reject fr the beginning without a second thought.


----------



## bowguyonly

https://banned.video/watch?id=610b15ec4b401c2c26621b15



Is this doctor a nut job too? Are they all crazy people for being professionals speaking out? It's gotta take a lot of denial to remain under that rock.

A lot of times this site comes up because a lot of information gets censored off the internet. 1st amendment slashed due to covid. Very strange. Very scientific to not ask questions?









URGENT - DR. JANE RUBY - PFIZER JAB [TOXIC] CONTENTS EXPOSED - STEW PETERS SHOW / JULY 5, 2021


Credit: Stew Peters BREAKING DISCOVERY! The ACTUAL CONTENTS Inside Pfizer Vials EXPOSED! For anyone that has any doubt.. here is the Patent 👇 https://patents.google.com/patent/KR20210028065A/en?q=vaccine+graphene+coronavirus&oq=vaccine+graphene+c…




www.bitchute.com


----------



## backcountry

Reading literacy matters:



> I won't call for censorship or moderation


That would seem to indicate the opposite of your question, "You want to censor or report me?". But, you are "just asking questions", right?

Forbes already covered your other nutjob. It's like wack-a-mole.

ww.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/07/10/graphene-oxide-in-pfizer-covid-19-vaccines-here-are-the-latest-unsupported-claims

I would recommend you take a entry level college science class, like biology, in which they train you on the modern scientific method. I'll give you a hint, you don't "just ask questions" based upon nutjobs (yes, plenty of PhDs or MDs are) misrepresenting non-peer reviewed "research" which currently can't even be verified. Scientific skepticism is based upon empirical evidence that can not only be verified but replicated. I guarantee you magneticism doesn't cut the mustard (nor any of your other links). What you are engaging in is a form of pseudoscience that inverts the basic scientific standard. 

I've fully admitted I will respond in what can understandably be considered a rude way to such garbage. These campaigns, run by what I heard recently called "chuckling chodes of disinformation" (ie the public figures not users here), are part of the social fabric that is unnecessarily leading to more deaths. Such abject failure of civic virtue doesn't get respectful replies. The posts deserve summary dismissal. Wether it's claims about zombie vaccines or magneticism, I will mock it with intention.

I'm sorry if you've truly fallen for this quackery. It's ruined more than one life. More than one person has been shown on their deathbed with Covid sincerely begging for a vaccine because they thought it was all a scam. I sincerely hope you never experience such a drastic medical experience because of the misinformation you consume. I won't even use insults against you personally but I will assault your posts filled with misinformation with a unique type of righteousness I reserve for such moments.


----------



## backcountry

Doesn't look great for SW Utah. Looks like we continue to have a big Delta surge as three of our five counties in the health district are back to a high rate of spread. I doubt we'll see our hospitals over-run (our infrastructure did well in 2020 when fatalities were tracking higher) but having this many people with covid means more complications in the long run. Looks like this round is hitting 25-55 year olds harder in our areas as well. 

Stay safe out there folks.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Bowguy, bud, I think we're on the same side politically speaking, but your not going to convince anyone on the left with the posts you've made. The more you post, the more rabid you make yourself look, the more you discredit yourself. Even taking a more reasonable, articulate, and somewhat neutral approach won't change minds. They have to do it for themselves. Subject matter that brings in politics (which is basically everything in this day and age), is bringing in core beliefs for questioning - and that's when you'll see heels dig in. We all do it. Honestly, you'd have better luck trying to hit an elk at 200 yards with a 10 mph crosswind. 

edit:
Personally, I'll only argue something up to a certain level (which isn't far), and then let it go. Because at some point, it's just an internet pissing contest to see who gets the last word in, in order to achieve a "win". Its pointless.


----------



## bowguyonly

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)


CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.




www.cdc.gov





CDC website. Plans and consideration for removal of family members and setting up zones. Potential issues for long term separation...read it. Countries with majority vaxed are still getting covid like crazy. Vax, no Vax. It just keeps going. =(


----------



## bowguyonly

Youtube will probably take it down eventually. Try to. Snopes and other liars will dis discredit this guy I'm sure.


----------



## Vanilla

bowguyonly said:


> Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
> 
> 
> CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CDC website. Plans and consideration for removal of family members and setting up zones. Potential issues for long term separation...read it. Countries with majority vaxed are still getting covid like crazy. Vax, no Vax. It just keeps going. =(


Did you notice that this document is from July 2020?

And did you read how it actually talks about the challenges and downsides to the shielding approach rather than advocating for it?

The misinformation train is cruising down the tracks and won’t be stopped, but at least read what you post.


----------



## bowguyonly

Ecclesiastes 1:9-11 (KJV) The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.
There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after.

There is no new thing under the sun


----------



## bowguyonly

Vanilla said:


> Did you notice that this document is from July 2020?
> 
> And did you read how it actually talks about the challenges and downsides to the shielding approach rather than advocating for it?
> 
> The misinformation train is cruising down the tracks and won’t be stopped, but at least read what you post.


Thank you for pointing that out as I did in the previous post Vanilla!
We could pull up documents from 50 years ago that talk about operation lock step too which is odd because our government and others talk about being "lock step" with each other. Probably just a coincidence. The document you're referring to that I have provided was from last year and if you ACTUALLY read it. Not sift through for your discredidation title to live at the "desk of lies" as Pfiezer Chief medical Officer puts it, you'll see how they very explicitly talk about setting up zones within communities and removing people from families and how to do it humanely. Of course I noticed what you've said. They never said they wouldn't do it. They pointed to more ways for solutions to achieve it. The point is is that they've been planning it since last year (and before) 

The only reason I come to this thread is to provide the things some people consider facts. The things the masses haven't been washed into.

as Hitler said and I posted before.










Seems to be working.

I appreciate your response my friend.


----------



## Catherder

Just for the record, not that it will be accepted by some on here. 





__





Joseph Goebbels On the “Big Lie”


Encyclopedia of Jewish and Israeli history, politics and culture, with biographies, statistics, articles and documents on topics from anti-Semitism to Zionism.




www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org





Neither Hitler nor Goebbels directly said it. 

I have also heard the same phrase attributed to a much more recent politician,............................., oh, never mind.


----------



## bowguyonly

....more truth incoming.

You might not want to hear this.

But sometimes the truth hurts

My question is. How can a lot of people fall under the lies of so many of the exact same talking heads who make millions to say the same thing in lock step with each other over regular every day citizens? Every day American veterans and patriots coming forward but so many side with the bought and paid for people? I hope everyone realizes Anthony Fauci is thee highest paid person in our government. (From what I know. Maybe excluding bribes and payoffs but including them I doubt it)

This is six medic doctors talking about covid and the vaccine induced variant. Remember. The lockdowns destroy economies around the world and create even more of a pandemic. Also, the doctor who invented the PCR test said it was a test in which could be used to test for anything at all if one wanted to. Which means they could test all positive or all negative whenever they want.

Got the vaccine? Negative test
Don't have the vaccine? Positive test.
This is the PCR test creator saying this before he mysteriously "died" after saying it.

Anyways. Please consider the other side of the mockingbird media.









Catherder said:


> Just for the record, not that it will be accepted by some on here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Joseph Goebbels On the “Big Lie”
> 
> 
> Encyclopedia of Jewish and Israeli history, politics and culture, with biographies, statistics, articles and documents on topics from anti-Semitism to Zionism.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Neither Hitler nor Goebbels directly said it.
> 
> I have also heard the same phrase attributed to a much more recent politician,............................., oh, never mind.


Hey thanks for sharing that! I appreciate you providing more insight into something that isn't clear.


----------



## bowguyonly

I was thinking about what Catherder said while washing dishes just now. (Yes I wash dishes by hand)
I'm not sure if dates but I'd guess the early 1900s they did electroshock therapy on people, similar to the preconditioning movie manchurian Candidate in which I'm sure we have now at some level. In the movie they programmed the service members after a traumatic event to believe one story but they had dreams of another. 
So here we are. A fearful event. A traumatic event. Everyone is afraid of the bad covid virus and they have every TV, radio station and many blackmailed politicians saying be afraid and do as your told. So they tell us out of fear and we do as we are told regardless of the good for ourselves or our neighbor. We are afraid. And we will do anything to allow them, to allow us our freedom and some resemblance or normality. 
We've been programmed at this point. Believe it or not, the people we have trusted who keep telling us the fear keep us in the belief we can defeat the virus and its gene therapy variants if we decide our neighbor is bad, the unvax are bad, covid was real, the money they're handing out is for the good of our economy, the vaccine passports (show me your papers) are good. 

It's all programming to make us belive what they're saying. I don't believe on bit of it. I will say also I dont believe destroying our government will solve it either. I think we are on a path to revelation either way. I am saying to see the other side. 

How can the vaccine(s) be beneficial yet everyone who has them gets covid more than anyone else? How is that possible? They say it protects you "more from covid but not the variant and still need a booster" 
What? More shots? So the booster can protect me a little but when lambda variant comes I'll need another booster and then another and another and another? 

Come on. This isn't reality. There is a much larger agenda behind it. 

Here, read this. It's about unrestricted warfare and the Chinese. 









A New Generation of Unrestricted Warfare


In 1999, two Chinese colonels wrote a book called Unrestricted Warfare, about warfare in the age of globalization. Their main argument: Warfare in the



warontherocks.com





How long have we as Americans yearned for cheaper, better, faster? Long time. Walk into a store and find me more 'other than chinese' made products. 
Connect the dots. 
Have a good weekend my friends. I call you guys friends because I will not give up on my fellow Utahns. 

Remember, God is GOOD, ALL the time!


----------



## Vanilla

Anyone else find the irony in these posts talking about how everyone else is just living in fear?

Because the irony is not lost on me one bit.


----------



## bowguyonly

Vanilla said:


> Anyone else find the irony in these posts talking about how everyone else is just living in fear?
> 
> Because the irony is not lost on me one bit.


My friend, if people aren't afraid, why are they injecting themselves with experimental vaccines? Genuinely curious.

I hope nobody is afraid. We shouldn't be. We should be well informed.


----------



## Vanilla

I have received various vaccines my entire life. Vaccines don’t scare me. I’m not afraid of the covid vaccine, like you are apparently. 

I agree, there is no reason to be afraid. That’s why I’m not.


----------



## backcountry

I got the well-tested vaccine because the cost benefit analysis clearly favored vaccination. I'm not afraid of the virus so much as I have zero desire to become infected with a novel virus whose full range of effects won't be known for decades. We know from history of viruses that they often reactivate for some folks, even mild cases, and cause secondary health problems years to decades down the road (think about shingles as an example). The opposite can be deduced from vaccines as history has shown major side effects are known by now and rarely develop past this point. 

Being afraid of a well-tested vaccine but not the virus is an inversion of scientific logic and findings. It's a personal choice to do so, one I'll support the liberty to do so, buy one that is unfortunate and ironic at best. We now have 1.8 billion humans fully vaccinated and the data is clear on its risk and benefits in favor of inoculation. 

But that would be talking science in the face of pseudoscience.


----------



## Vanilla

Yeah, I’m definitely not afraid of a vaccine that “have proven to be both safe and effective.” (-RMN) 

Not afraid in the least.


----------



## bowgy

Well if the prophet of God says so.








The Church Urges More Action to Limit the Spread of COVID-19


In a new letter, the First Presidency urges Latter-day Saints to wear face masks when needed and get vaccinated against COVID-19.




newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org


----------



## Catherder

bowgy said:


> Well if the prophet of God says so.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Church Urges More Action to Limit the Spread of COVID-19
> 
> 
> In a new letter, the First Presidency urges Latter-day Saints to wear face masks when needed and get vaccinated against COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org



He is an MD however. He is just giving the company line like almost all the other doctors.  (sarcasm font)

Still not enough to change the mind of the conspiracy theory crowd, even the LDS ones.


----------



## Packout

This article is interesting.








What we now know about how to fight the delta variant of COVID | Column


An expert explains why vaccines — and masks — are so important, and why delta is different and more dangerous.




www.tampabay.com


----------



## bowguyonly

If you had a career you went to school for years and years to have, earned awards and prospered in for years just to have your boss say to you, do as we say or you'll lose your job and your license. You'll never have a job in your career field ever again and the lifestyle you live will crumble to what you consider poor and helpless. Your kids will beg for food.

Would you do as your boss said or flip your entire life on its head?

It is what is happening to these doctors. Shut up, or get out. Now we see the younger woke doctors getting into the field. Think they care? No. I work with people whose wives are RNs. Guess what they say? Majority of people in hospitals are vaccinated. What does that mean? Delta variant is a sham of the vaccinated.

The vaccines grow protein prions that harm your vital organs. It gives you blood clots. That's why people who know about them call them clot shots. It's why people get dizzy, fatigued, chest pain, headaches, brain fog.

The delta "variant" is from the vaccinated passing it to everyone else.

San Diego board of supervisors just had a hearing and a lot of people mentioned Israel being highly vaccinated but the worst covid. Odd. People also mentioned Nuremberg Code as well.






Hear the chamber erupt with applause? Many more spoke, and many times, more people applauded.

The convenient thing to do is follow the rest of the sheep. The right thing to do is take a stand for truth and freedom. Sheep or freedom?

I guess the silent majority becoming less silent is as crazy as I am. Or we live in a bubble in Utah and most of you have no clue about the world around you.
Either way, happy huntin Saturday!

(Make fun of the guy in the video if you want. He has more courage than the rest of the sheep. The other people who spoke appear more liberal than he does. Isn't a left or right issue. It's a freedom issue.)

Try to find the entire meeting. Try. It's tough to find. Almost like they're censoring the internet. But that's probably just a conspiracy theory. 🤔 🤣 Trump gets censored but the Taliban doesn't. 🤣🤣 Censorship...it's a conspiracy....they wouldn't censor the truth about covid like they do Trump and many others would they? Gotta be a conspiracy. 🤣🤣🤣🤣


----------



## bowguyonly

Redacted


----------



## Vanilla

Didn’t Trump say to get vaccinated and that it was safe? Is he part of the sheep and conspiracy too?


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> Didn’t Trump say to get vaccinated and that it was safe? Is he part of the sheep and conspiracy too?


Yes, and pre-election candidates Biden and Harris repeatedly cast doubt on taking it. My how times have changed

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

I think Olibow's hero looks and sounds a lot like a (pre-haircut) James Hetfield wanna be.


----------



## backcountry

That sure is a lot of laughing emojis in his last post. Sadly his posts are less entertaining and more predictable now. "Olibow" is losing his edge.

But I am beginning to think magnetized, 5G emitting vaccine-induced zombies may be real.


----------



## backcountry

An interesting read on how the aerosol vs droplet debate played out behind the scene. Goes to show how simple errors repeated over time become dogma even in medical fields. Less conspiracy, more human fallibility. 









The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill


All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences.




www.wired.com


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> An interesting read on how the aerosol vs droplet debate played out behind the scene. Goes to show how simple errors repeated over time become dogma even in medical fields. Less conspiracy, more human fallibility.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill
> 
> 
> All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wired.com



Good read. 

Of course human fallibility is not acceptable to the conspiracy and harda#@ skeptic crowds. Any error on one particular means that medical science is wrong in everything they say. (as if these folks could establish such perfection in their own lives). In the meantime, they can put out any unadulterated BS they want on social media with no challenge and have it lapped up as truth by like minded souls. Crazy times we live in.


----------



## backcountry

Does it count as a zombie vaccine if it brought a 90s band back to life (only to cancel)?









Counting Crows cancels show due to Utah's COVID-19 protocols


A Counting Crows concert that was scheduled for Aug. 26 at Salt Lake City's Red Butte Garden has been canceled, according to venue officials.




ksltv.com


----------



## Vanilla

I wonder how many people will go get vaccinated now that Pfizer is fully approved and not just emergency use?


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> I wonder how many people will go get vaccinated now that Pfizer is fully approved and not just emergency use?



I think it will help at the margins, with some fence sitters, but won't move the hardcore "Olibow" types. They even booed the Trumpster this weekend at a rally when he told them to get vaccinated. When one is going for the Darwin award, one must be "all in", I suppose. 

What it also will do is make it easier for some entities like employers and the military to issue mandates to their people.


----------



## Gordon

Vanilla said:


> I wonder how many people will go get vaccinated now that Pfizer is fully approved and not just emergency use?


I believe the fine print in the covid end game bill banned mandatory vaccines that were emergency use authorizations. 
Now that pfizer is fully approved universities and others state agencies can mandate it??


----------



## Vanilla

Gordon said:


> I believe the fine print in the covid end game bill banned mandatory vaccines that were emergency use authorizations.
> Now that pfizer is fully approved universities and others state agencies can mandate it??


I’ve never read that law, so I’m not sure how this impacts that, to be honest.

I’ve just heard a non-trivial percentage of unvaccinated people I know say “It hasn’t even officially been approved yet!” (Or something to that extent.) I’m guessing you’d see it more than once in this very thread if you read through the last 10-15 pages alone. So just wondering if those that have cited that are going to change their tune? Or will there just be a different excuse now for anyone who simply doesn’t want to get vaccinated?

I’ve gotten to the point where I don’t even care if someone wants to get vaxed or not, I just want people to make the decision on REAL information. I know, I’m a hopeless romantic.


----------



## Catherder

Gordon is correct that there is some language in certain regulations and/or law stipulating that mandates require full authorization before that can happen. The military is one example but there are others, IIRC. Don't have time to dig up chapter and verse on it though. 



Vanilla said:


> I just want people to make the decision on REAL information. I know, I’m a hopeless romantic.


The cynic in me says that train flew past the station a long time ago.


----------



## backcountry

I would have guessed minimal a week ago but there was a big spike in new vaccinations last week so maybe the fence sitters just needed some fresh justification (delta last week, authorization this week). Time will tell.


----------



## bowgy

backcountry said:


> I would have guessed minimal a week ago but there was a big spike in new vaccinations last week so maybe the fence sitters just needed some fresh justification (delta last week, authorization this week). Time will tell.


Is that nation wide or just Utah? If Utah it could be the Prophets recommendation, or the the whole nation listened to the Prophet.


----------



## bowguyonly

Vanilla said:


> Didn’t Trump say to get vaccinated and that it was safe? Is he part of the sheep and conspiracy too?


Yes he is. And I wouldn't trust anyone with billions of dollars to sway the masses because we the people can see through the garbage they're telling us. I do not trust Trump at all. 

I told you guys a while ago to stand before it is too late and the window is narrowing. 

Yall talk on this forum with crap you can "intellectually" come up with when your God given inner instinct is already telling you red alert. 

The pharisees debated and came up with a genius plan as well to their own destruction.

Door to door, forced jabs, forced boosters and Vax ID is coming. It is imminent unless other people take a stand for us in our bubble. 

I've been scammed before. I hate being scammed. Their is no way anyone can ever come up with a solution to being scammed until they admit they've been scammed. 

This is our own health they are scamming us with. It's a different kind of war. The kind of war I cited from the Chinese generals book. They will Vax our military, they'll get sick and become weak, then they'll have another phase for us.

Israel, Canada and Australia are the test nations. Big tech is the big silencer for truth. 

C'mon you guys.


----------



## bowguyonly

2 weeks to flatten the curve, a week of lockdown, 70% Vax, 90% Vax, Vax task forces, now forced Vax. Then no Vax no job. Then no Vax no groceries. 

Seriously. The goal posts will keep moving. It'll never return to normal. Wake up.


----------



## backcountry

Mainstream media is definitely evil if they are burying stories about denying people food solely based upon vaccination status! **** you billionaires!


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> Mainstream media is definitely evil if they are burying stories about denying people food solely based upon vaccination status! **** you billionaires!



Quick! To the bunker, before the Gates/Soros space laser zaps our food!


----------



## backcountry

Pretty interesting article:









The Messiest Phase of the Pandemic Yet


Coronavirus data have always been incomplete—but the situation in America is particularly murky now.




www.theatlantic.com


----------



## bowguyonly

Pretty blunt. We should find a way to make fun of him so we feel better. His shoes are silly and he is bald. He writes books. Books. Can you believe that? He has a PhD. and writes books! LoL. This guy...


----------



## backcountry

I like books. I also like fact checking and his first statement about Dr Malone is patently false. It only gets worse from there. Do better bowbooger.


----------



## bowgy

Wow, if Dr Brooks is right there will be a great reduction in the world population next year. 

Maybe I can get ammo again,....... wait.... I won't need it....... guess I better make sure my will is up to date and get up to Alaska one more time in the next 5 months.


----------



## Catherder

bowgy said:


> Maybe I can get ammo again,....... wait.... I won't need it....... guess I better make sure my will is up to date and get up to Alaska one more time in the next 5 months.


Think Mr. Tushy would let us hang out for a week up there at his place? 

Problem is we don't have any AK tags and by the time we get there the peak fishing will be subsiding. I guess there are always cred boosting ptarmigan. 

Or better yet, we all need to last at least 1 or 2 more years.


----------



## backcountry

Rumor is the good Dr is actually a PhD in Education who may have stretched his claims with "researching" meaning reading not scientific research.

I'll have to think about updating my resume with that approach.


----------



## Vanilla

I'm going to die "in the next 6 months to 3-5 years" after getting the jabs? 

Millions have already died from the jabs? 

Why didn't anyone tell me this back in March!?!?!?


----------



## backcountry

It's never too late to take your horse dewormer, Vanilla!


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> It's never too late to take your horse dewormer, Vanilla!


Ugh, please don't. That stuff is flying off the shelves faster than ammo.


----------



## backcountry

That's such a sad statement of our current culture and predicament 🤮😥


----------



## bowguyonly

Japan halts use of 1.63 mil. Moderna vaccine doses over contamination


Japan's health ministry says that foreign materials were found in some unused doses of Moderna Inc.'s COVID-19 vaccine and the use of around 1.63 million doses manufactured on the same production line has been suspended as a precaution.




english.kyodonews.net





Now the Japanese health ministry is part of the conspiracy theory. Small black material they say to recall 1.6 million doses. I bet they say it's graphene oxide like the other wierdo doctors spreading information about people being magnetized through the polyethylene glycol into our t cells.


----------



## backcountry

You mean the contaminated lots even Reuters is covering? Sucks that the subcontractor allowed that to happen. Hardly a conspiracy until you claim the alleged graphene oxide in a single dose of Moderna could lead to "magnetization". That's the bat****e crazy part.


----------



## Vanilla

I wonder what super power I’m going to possess for my last within 6 months to 3-5 years of my life?

Whatever it is, it’s bound to be a wild ride!!!


----------



## backcountry

Less funny but timely and important: be safe out there, below out life as normal veneer is a public health crisis almost as bad as last December/January:









The U.S. reaches a daily average of 100,000 Covid hospitalizations for the first time since the winter peak.


Hospitalizations nationwide have increased by nearly 500 percent in the past two months, particularly across Southern states, where I.C.U. beds are filling up.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## Catherder

More evidence that there is just about nothing that is going to convince the "Olibow" crowd to get vaccinated. 

Vaccine Hesitancy Is Still Strong In Many COVID-19-Battered States

I suspect not even Trump, Biden, Scalise, President Nelson, the nations doctors and nurses, deaths of friends, and overflowing ICUs can reach this crowd.

Crazy and sad.


----------



## KineKilla

Look back on the many gov't sponsored experiments on people using lsd and other drugs and you can see some of where the distrust stems from.

How about the army giving small pox infected blankets to native peoples.






Unethical human experimentation in the United States - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org





I don't personally subscribe to the conspiracy theories but it cannot be disputed that at times, trusted government authorities have done these things to their citizens.

Sent from my SM-N976U using Tapatalk


----------



## Catherder

KineKilla said:


> Look back on the many gov't sponsored experiments on people using lsd and other drugs and you can see some of where the distrust stems from.
> 
> How about the army giving small pox infected blankets to native peoples.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Unethical human experimentation in the United States - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I don't personally subscribe to the conspiracy theories but it cannot be disputed that at times, trusted government authorities have done these things to their citizens.
> 
> Sent from my SM-N976U using Tapatalk



Ok, I will bite.

Yes, some of these things happened with the government. Some may not be roughly equivalent, as your example with the blankets was frequently done in perceived wartime situations with hostile native tribes. (not that it completely exonerates the action) However, look at who is on the distrusted list. Now, besides the gubmint, you have the medical profession, scientists/science, and the clergy/church as being distrusted. These used to be some of the most trusted groups of people to all Americans and institutions like churches were an important part of the social fabric, even for those that weren't devout. Now, these groups are "They" for many folks, and some bulls*&t on social media becomes the trusted source of "truth". 

Like I said, scary and sad, and I see no easy way things will change.


----------



## KineKilla

You make solid points for sure.

If you're like me though, you have a mainly cynical point of view towards most large organizations and people in power.

I believe just about anyone can be bought and that power corrupts.

I'm still planning to get vaccinated, just need to wait until hunting season is over. Gotta have priorities!

Sent from my SM-N976U using Tapatalk


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## Catherder

More light reading on vaccine hesitancy and politics. 









Republicans Aren’t New To The Anti-Vaxx Movement


At first glance, Melissa seems to meet all the criteria of the “crunchy granola” type. She tracks ingredients on all the products she buys and uses apps to iden…




fivethirtyeight.com


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## bowguyonly

The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential. This means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, *without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, over-reaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion;* and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved, as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision. This latter element requires that, before the acceptance of an affirmative decision by the experimental subject, there should be made known to him the nature, duration, and purpose of the experiment;
the method and means by which it is to be conducted; all inconveniences and hazards reasonably to be expected; and the effects upon his health or person, which may possibly come from his participation in the experiment.

Many employers around the country have given their employees an ultimatum. Get vaccinated or don't come to work. Today when they said to be fully vaccinated by December 8th or don't come to work, I certainly didnt feel coerced to take the shot. 
Perfectly normal.


----------



## middlefork

bowguyonly said:


> *The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential. This means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, over-reaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion; and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved, as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision. This latter element requires that, before the acceptance of an affirmative decision by the experimental subject, there should be made known to him the nature, duration, and purpose of the experiment;
> the method and means by which it is to be conducted; all inconveniences and hazards reasonably to be expected; and the effects upon his health or person, which may possibly come from his participation in the experiment.*
> 
> Many employers around the country have given their employees an ultimatum. Get vaccinated or don't come to work. Today when they said to be fully vaccinated by December 8th or don't come to work, I certainly didnt feel coerced to take the shot.
> Perfectly normal.


Should this statement have quote marks or did you really come up with it?

As for employers.... suck it butter cup. You have the right to refuse.


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## Vanilla

My employer does not have a vaccine mandate, but every single day I have other mandates. It’s called working for someone else! If you want to live mandate free from your employer, I might suggest not having an employer by working for someone else.

That is what we call the real world. Capitalism at its core. If you don’t like it, I hear there are insane amounts of employers out there willing to pay good wages for positions they are unable to fill. Capitalism is a great thing!


----------



## Critter

bowguyonly said:


> Many employers around the country have given their employees an ultimatum. Get vaccinated or don't come to work. Today when they said to be fully vaccinated by December 8th or don't come to work, I certainly didnt feel coerced to take the shot.
> Perfectly normal.


Mandates by employers have been with us as long as people have worked for others. I had to wear steel toe boots, hard hat, and other safety gear not to mention a lot of other requirements for my work. If I didn't want to wear it then I was free to go find employment elsewhere


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## Vanilla

Novel idea, huh Critter? Everyone wants the right to choose, but doesn’t want to give others the same courtesy.

It’s the golden rule: he with the gold makes the rules. Again, if you don’t like your employer’s mandates, and don’t like employer mandates in general, then figure out a way to work for yourself, then make the rules.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

You guys remember when the undertaker threw Mick Foley off the steel cage on to that table at ringside? How did he even survive that?


----------



## DREW_22

Being required to wear steel toed boots and hard hats means your employer was looking out for YOU. You didn't have to wear PERSONAL protective equipment to keep Johnny on 2nd shift from getting hurt. Requiring healthy people to get an ineffective flu shot in order work and take care of a family is completely wrong. In the last 18 months, the amount of freedoms people have rolled over and allowed to be taken away is nothing short of comical and/or horrific.


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## DREW_22

It's ok tho. It's just 2 weeks to "flatten the curve".


----------



## Vanilla

Freedom: as is widely quoted in the Princess Bride- “I don’t think that word means what you think it does.”

Freedom is deciding if you don’t like your employer’s rules, you go to a different employer. Freedom is NOT you get to tell your employer what their rules are so you can not have your sensitive feelings hurt.

It’s comical and horrific how much of conservative bedrock principles “conservatives” have disregarded the 18 months. (Or 4 years…)


----------



## DREW_22

Vanilla said:


> Freedom: as is widely quoted in the Princess Bride- “I don’t think that word means what you think it does.”
> 
> Freedom is deciding if you don’t like your employer’s rules, you go to a different employer. Freedom is NOT you get to tell your employer what their rules are so you can not have your sensitive feelings hurt.
> 
> It’s comical and horrific how much of conservative bedrock principles “conservatives” have disregarded the 18 months. (Or 4 years…)


I would never consider myself a conservative. I consider myself a HUMAN BEING. My body my choice right? You have the same rights (freedoms in this country at one point) to believe, think, feel, and do whatever you want. I know I can't tell my employer their rules. The Gov just made up the rules/mandates for them or be punished accordingly. Sounds like an unvaxxed tax... People who are healthy, have already had the flu, or dont want the vax. Should be allowed to work and participate in society right along with those who are already artificially "protected" for 4-6 months from a virus with a 99% survival rate.


----------



## Vanilla

I don’t even care if people want to get vaxed or not at this point. It’s the snowflake whining about it by people who used to be better than that which I’m totally sick of. I guess when you hitch your wagon to the biggest snowflake whiner of them all it has consequences.

Oh well, keep exercising those “freedoms” to be free from everyone else’s freedoms. Our country has never been very good at freedom for everyone. It seems we’ve only ever wanted freedom for ourselves, everyone else be *darned.


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## colorcountrygunner

You guys remember when the conservatives were so cawksure that covid would mysteriously disappear once Uncle Sniffy took office? I remember. That was kinda silly in hindsight.


----------



## Vanilla

colorcountrygunner said:


> You guys remember when the **Trumpers* were so cawksure that covid would mysteriously disappear once Uncle Sniffy took office? I remember. That was kinda silly in hindsight.


Fixed it for ya.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Vanilla said:


> Fixed it for ya.


That's a fair edit. I consider myself to be a conservative, just one that looks at things with a little more nuance than many of them seem to.


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## caddis8

The religion of politics and the politics of religion. The whole thing is crazy. My friend in Cedar that I talk to regularly was told by his wife that she would leave him if he got vaccinated. You can't make this up. 

A few points- 
1- For those who say requiring steel toe boots and hard hats is only looking out for the employee isn't completely factually accurate. Employers can give rules and mandates. Right to work. Having a vaccination requirement is not at all against the constitution or any employment law that I can find. (Some attorney would know more than me, but I'm fairly up to speed with employment law). Imagine how much labor, time, and money employers have lost from COVID. I know of a few roofing crews locally that got covid and the whole crew was out 2 weeks. That's money not coming in, missed jobs, a lot of times wages paid anyway, and insurance. It is in my best interest as a business manager and the employees to be vaccinated if you work outside the home. We don't require a vaccine because our company is a virtual company. Always have been. 

2- This has clearly become political. The R's were developing the vaccine and the D's said they wouldn't trust it. Change in election and now the R's say they won't take it because the D's think it's a good idea. They fight back and forth to gain power and political points. 

3- For those who are religious. If I remember correctly, a worldwide fast was held across multiple religions for relief from COVID. Multiple vaccines came along in record time. The majority church in Utah (to which I belong) asked people to vaccinate and wear masks again if can't social distance. But the R's were in charge and were against the D's and those in "power." Answer to prayers? I'd like to think there was at least some help from the Almighty. I've prayed a whole bunch about hunting, my kids, my wife, fishing, my parents, to find my keys, wallet, whatever I've lost). There have been a lot of coincidences or answered prayers in my life. So why not this as a potential answer. It allows my parents to come see me in another state. I look at the religious side as an ask with a small a. "Little a" ask. We haven't gotten to asks with a big A. "Big A" asks are like relocating, and much bigger sacrifice than getting a shot that will probably do more good than harm. 

There's talk of freedoms lost, and all sorts of stuff. Well, there's nothing in the bill of rights or consitution that I know of that talks about masks, shots, or medicine. So we have to work through it. 

I think there are some legal challenges for a government mandated vaccination and its constitutionality. Again, government mandated. That will be litigated. That's whole a lot different than an employer making rules for employees to follow. Concealed carry, for example. Some places of business, schools, churches, etc. have asked for no concealed carry. Not unconstitutional. Their property, their rules. 

My body, my choice. That's a slippery slope and I think it's slightly ironic that R's say that but vehemently deny the D's use of that exact phrase for a different topic. 

I go back to the politics of religion and the religion of politics. Dangerous game there. I digress.


----------



## Vanilla

caddis8 said:


> I think there are some legal challenges for a government mandated vaccination and its constitutionality. Again, government mandated. That will be litigated.


I will add a word: *FEDERAL* government mandated. We already have Supreme Court case law saying states can impose vaccination mandates under the police powers they posses under the 10th Amendment. And those mandates do not violate due process under the constitution.

The real question is not can government mandate a vaccine, but can a president mandate a vaccine? I have my opinion on that, but it doesn’t have to do with the outdoors. 😜 

I like what you’ve said there, caddis. Well said.


----------



## caddis8

Vanilla said:


> I will add a word: *FEDERAL* government mandated. We already have Supreme Court case law saying states can impose vaccination mandates under the police powers they posses under the 10th Amendment. And those mandates do not violate due process under the constitution.
> 
> The real question is not can government mandate a vaccine, but can a president mandate a vaccine? I have my opinion on that, but it doesn’t have to do with the outdoors. 😜


Very good clarifications. I agree with those much better than the way I articulated it.


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## bowguyonly

It's an emergency use authorized SHOT. it isn't even a vaccine. Natural immunity works 1000x better according to Israeli studies.

Not to mention their cannot be a UEA if there are other approved drugs for the virus. And there are.

Caddis. The bible talks quite a bit about face coverings and our bodies.
Try telling a Muslim they must remove their burka for employment. Then tell a Bible believing Christian to wear one. It's discrimination.

Whatever you believe should happen with forced jabs, there are a TON of people standing standing their rights leaving their jobs. The ships off the east and west coast are already behind. More and more people will leave their jobs and the economy will get worse while biden prints more money. Where does the majority of the money gone cause? Amazon? Wal Mart? ... funnels to the top. Because of "Covid".

Study up on what happens when governments federalize health care like the national guard filling in for doctors. Or when travel becomes federalized as we watch more and more airline employees walk away. History tells us it isn't good.


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## backcountry

Looks like someone misunderstands the "Criteria for EUA Authorization" as outlined under Section 564 of the "Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act)".

Here's a good link with citations:






Section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act Fact Sheet | State Public Health | ASTHO







www.astho.org





And here are the criteria:



> *Criteria for EUA Authorization—*The FDA will issue an EUA if the FDA commissioner finds all of the following:
> 
> 
> The CBRN agent specified in the declaration of emergency can cause a serious or life-threatening disease or condition.
> Based on the scientific evidence available, it is reasonable to believe that the product may be effective in diagnosing, treating, or preventing the disease or condition specified in the declaration of emergency or caused by another medical product to diagnose, treat, or prevent a disease or condition caused by the specified agent.
> The known and potential benefits outweigh the known and potential risks of the product when used to diagnose, prevent, or treat the serious or life-threatening disease or condition that is the subject of the declaration.
> *There is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the product for diagnosing, preventing, or treating the disease or condition.1,5,6 *


It makes no legal or logical sense for an EUA to be contingent upon availability of treatment given the goal of a vaccine, ie the referenced "product for... preventing...the disease". That is why the criteria as written in law includes an "or". Expecting citizens to just accept the only option is to become infected and therefore waiting for a fully approved treatment is horrendous and medically unethical. Which is why the law isn't written in the way you misrepresented, bow. 

I'm guessing I'm wasting my time with you but I'm not great at letting mistruths and misrepresentations of such important laws stand unchallenged. The EUAs for the remaining vaccines are legal and just. And we've had a fully approved Covid-19 vaccine for 2 months now so the anti-"EUA" rhetoric and propaganda is null.

Pretty simple choicce..find another job if you don't like the private business's mandate. Good news is Utah has something like 1.5 jobs available for every unemployed applicant. It's an employee's market, be bold. 



*Ultimately the Biden mandate for private businesses is likely to fail given the history of such OSHA temporary standards. Something like 75% plus of these things never pass the criteria or muster and are quickly shot down.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Still not worried, because, it doesn't help...


----------



## Lone_Hunter

If i was to rate my personal level of concern with the coof on a 5 scale, 5 being "Mah is butt puckered!", and 1 being " I'm not overly concerned", i think i'm somewhere around a 2, maybe up to 3. Frankly, at this point, it's probably endemic like seasonal flu, cant be living in constant fear about it, and frankly there's bigger pots boiling over on the metaphorical stove anyway.


----------



## DREW_22

Mmmm I love Koolaid 😎 especially if it is forced down my throat.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Still not worried.


----------



## johnnycake

Cool story brah


----------



## Ray

Still ain’t scared


----------



## Vanilla

It’s one thing to not be afraid of the virus itself, but this virus and they way it has not only harmed individuals, but the world economies, way of life, turning us on each other constantly…man, this virus has kicked our collective @$$es now for two straight years.

If that doesn’t have you worried then I suggest you get a sanity check. The down stream impacts still worry me much more than the illness does, and we’ve (as a society, collectively) completely failed just about every test. Yes, that worries me.


----------



## johnnycake

I've got zero shame in saying that it's still got me worried. Losing significant lung capacity will do that to a guy.


----------



## Ray

I suppose my experience was different than everyone else’s, plus, it had zero impact on me financially. Couple that with the fact symptoms from the virus seem to be less dramatic than when the virus initially hit, especially with this new strain.
Not saying people aren’t dying still but the vast majority of those that do are either overweight, have comorbidities or extreme vitamin deficiencies.

The virus itself doesn’t scare me at all, what does is the overreach from the federal government.


----------



## Vanilla

johnnycake said:


> I've got zero shame in saying that it's still got me worried. Losing significant lung capacity will do that to a guy.


I feel you there!


----------



## Critter

johnnycake said:


> I've got zero shame in saying that it's still got me worried. Losing significant lung capacity will do that to a guy.


And that is why I got the vaccine.

I can't stand to loose any more lung capacity to it. That is if I survived it 

Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk


----------



## 2full

I got the vaccine back in March. With all the crap I have going on I could not risk getting Covid, I even got the booster shot last month. 
I had another surgery 3 weeks ago, and have radiation and chemical treatments coming up in the next 3 months. It's going to get western for me. 
I'm not sure how Covid would hit me. 
Do not want to find out.


----------



## Ray

2full said:


> I got the vaccine back in March. With all the crap I have going on I could not risk getting Covid, I even got the booster shot last month.
> I had another surgery 3 weeks ago, and have radiation and chemical treatments coming up in the next 3 months. It's going to get western for me.
> I'm not sure how Covid would hit me.
> Do not want to find out.


I’m sorry to hear about your situation, 2full, if you or your family need anything, don’t hesitate to reach out. Even though we have our disagreements on here, it’s a pretty solid community


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## 2full

Yes it is a very solid community, good people for sure. The disagreements are what make it interesting. 😎
Thanks for the offer. I have a very good support system. Lots of family, and some good friends. And an added bonus of 3 daughters in health care. They all take most excellent care of me. 
Will get thru it, I'm too stinking onery and stubborn not to.


----------



## DreadedBowHunter

I knew covid was fake when I saw the cruise liner story on the news January 2020. I told people at work that it will be used to control
Humanity and they all looked at me with a fluoridated blank stare. I know more than government thought I would know. Most people won’t research because they have been programmed not to. Once you research what is going on you’d feel like an idiot for going along with the blatant fraud of the whole charade. Asymptotic? Banning dissenting opinions? Government has this Holocaust in the bag if people Keep Going along with it. Lot ending with a 1 is saline, lot number ending in 2 is a gamble of your health, lot number ending in 3 is a kill shot being completely cloaked by the government controlled news media. I can go on forever I’m just trying to warn those that actually care about Reality vs Candycoated Propaganda of the secret society based fraud. Can’t say I didn’t tell you so. 🤷🏼‍♂️


----------



## Vanilla

Tell us more about lot 3. How long until one dies?


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Covid isn't fake, the trouble is there is no realistic perspective on it anymore. If you listen to left wing news sources, you'd swear it's the apocoplypse, and the bubonic plague combined. If you listen to right wing news sources (which I do), you'd swear it's much ado about nothing or a plandemic, or control conditioning for big gov. I think the true perspective, is somewhere in between. The trouble is, everyone, both sides of America, are using covid as a political football or cudgel.

Welcome to demoralization.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Vanilla said:


> It’s one thing to not be afraid of the virus itself, but this virus and they way it has not only harmed individuals, but the world economies, way of life, turning us on each other constantly…man, this virus has kicked our collective @$$es now for two straight years.
> 
> If that doesn’t have you worried then I suggest you get a sanity check. The down stream impacts still worry me much more than the illness does, and we’ve (as a society, collectively) completely failed just about every test. Yes, that worries me.


All the fall-out that has happened (way of life, economy, turning one against the other) has been a fabrication from lies and fear.

NONE of that had to happen. NONE. I live in a state that is still being governed by a long and worn out extended abuse of an emergency health order. I'm over it. I'm sick of it. I'm fed up with it.

Sorry if I'm so callous, I don't need a sanity check...


----------



## APD

DreadedBowHunter said:


> I knew covid was fake when I saw the cruise liner story on the news January 2020. I told people at work that it will be used to control
> Humanity and they all looked at me with a fluoridated blank stare. I know more than government thought I would know. Most people won’t research because they have been programmed not to. Once you research what is going on you’d feel like an idiot for going along with the blatant fraud of the whole charade. Asymptotic? Banning dissenting opinions? Government has this Holocaust in the bag if people Keep Going along with it. Lot ending with a 1 is saline, lot number ending in 2 is a gamble of your health, lot number ending in 3 is a kill shot being completely cloaked by the government controlled news media. I can go on forever I’m just trying to warn those that actually care about Reality vs Candycoated Propaganda of the secret society based fraud. Can’t say I didn’t tell you so. 🤷🏼‍♂️


you forgot about the 5g and JFK jr


----------



## caddis8

johnnycake said:


> I've got zero shame in saying that it's still got me worried. Losing significant lung capacity will do that to a guy.


1 year later and still dealing with decreased lung capacity. Can't smell very well still (has upside) but can't smell burning brakes, burning food well, hot vacuum belt, car smells, farts, BO, poop, or other stuff like that. 

A cold knocks me flat. I was one of the first to be offered a vaccine when it was offered here and I absolutely took it. Looking at a booster soon. 

As everything, it got politicized unfortunately. I think it made the effects worse. Trump (like him or hate him) did a pretty good job enabling the private industry to develop a vaccine (semantics in the argument if it is actually a vaccine or not), and prepared plans for the roll out. Democrats vehemently argued against the vaccine as evil until they won. Then they were touting the vaccine and the Republicans were now doubting the vaccine. Did it change? No. So why the argument? To score points. Even Trump was saying get vaccinated and conservatives were booing him. 

It has caused significant supply chain issues, workforce issues, inflationary pressure, and other things. The long term effects from the virus are TBD. That makes me a little nervous. The conspiracy theorist in me has a lot of questions. But I won't ask them here.


----------



## backcountry

Looking at the Omnicron data I've become pretty hopeful. Not certain by any means, but hopeful. This thing is definitely endemic now and it seems like a matter of when I get it, not if. I'll still take later than sooner.

We lost a third person on our street to Covid in November. Pretty sad really, actually an older couple who died a week apart. Didn't know them well but they had local family and grandkids which is just depressing to consider. 

I'm grateful my comorbidities are easily controlled by common prescriptions. My wife and I statistically should be fine if it happens but like others I'm not excited to see if there are side effects. It's much harder to accept it for my infant daughter. Statistically fine doesn't stop one from wondering about long term consequences or secondary disease decades later like I experienced in my 30s. And I still worry about my parents given age and family issues with cardiovascular problems.

It has been pleasant being vaccinated and boosted and expanding our circle more every month. I knew I missed my community after the long 14 months that was Mar 2020- early May 2021 but it hits home more once you start doing dinners with them regularly again. 

May my daughter and her generation never experience something like this ever again in their lives!


----------



## backcountry

And I'm still grateful to live in an era in which scientists had enough baseline research done that throwing a few extra billion at the vaccine expedited development and distribution the way it did. So lucky and so grateful.


----------



## bowgy

Thanks President Trump for _Operation Warp Speed_


----------



## Vanilla

bowgy said:


> Thanks President Trump for _Operation Warp Speed_


This is true! He does deserve credit, regardless of how one feels about him. 

Just think if beginning in March 2020 he was championing the world saving vaccine "he" provided the world instead of talking constantly about election fraud in an election that was still 6+ months away? He still might be president today...for better or worse. (Not to mention how that could have helped alleviate some of the wild conspiracies out there, but I digress.) How he and his cronies decided to go all in on election fraud months ahead of time instead of what they actually did well the previous 3+ years should go down as one of the worst strategic mistakes in modern election history. That strategy alone pretty much gave us President Biden...for better or for worse. 

I'm hopeful this omicron variant is the "beginning of the end" for this virus. I know it will never end, just like many other viruses that just continue to mutate and reinvent themselves over decades. By the "end" I mean the end of needing to worry about it putting large numbers of people in the hospital or the ground. I'm hopeful this variant takes us that direction. Fingers crossed...I'm pretty tired of even thinking about this crap, let alone hearing people continue to argue about it.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Covid finally hit my household as my wife tested positive for it. She is experiencing very mild symptoms and the in-laws are pissed that she won't take their ivermectin. 😒


----------



## High Desert Elk

My sister tested + for it the other day, my brother thinks he has it but hasn't tested and I don't blame him. What good would that do to confirm he either has a "normal" cold or the 'rona? Virus, either way, is going to run its course...

I'm still not worried about it because it doesn't help.


----------



## CPAjeff

My fully vaccinated wife caught the RONA last week. 🤷🏻‍♂️

The rest of our family has been vaccinated and no one else in our household has shown any symptoms or tested positive.


----------



## 2full

I tested + for it this Monday. I had been fighting a nasty cough and stuffed up head for over a week. 
So I went to the Doc to make sure I didn't have pnemonia. That has been going around Cedar. 
I am fully vaxed and boosted (with all the other health crap I have going on, I didn't want to take any chances) so I didn't think I had the Corona. My lungs were clear, but I had a lot of wheezing......he told me my asthma I had as a kid is back. Not what I wanted to hear. So now I have an inhaler. 
This has been the worst head and chest cold I have had for a long time, if not ever. Has been miserable. 
The wife started with it about 3 days after I did, and hers symptoms have already improved. 
Have been hunkered down all week.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

When it comes to being in close contact with infected people I have been in the belly of the beast a whole heck of a lot over these past 2 years. Not vaccinated and only wear a mask when I'm forced to. Can't catch it for the life of me. I get tested weekly at work too.


----------



## High Desert Elk

colorcountrygunner said:


> When it comes to being in close contact with infected people I have been in the belly of the beast a whole heck of a lot over these past 2 years. Not vaccinated and only wear a mask when I'm forced to. Can't catch it for the life of me. I get tested weekly at work too.


My daughter was notified on Monday someone in her chemistry class sitting in close proximity tested positive. University policy is to isolate for 5 days regardless if you're still a shot "virgin" or you've had 6 doses and 3 boosters.

No symptoms we are aware of.


----------



## hondodawg

I finally had it over Christmas and New Years. The worst prolonged cold/flu for me. I’m actually shocked I caught it this late in the game. I’ve been traveling/flying every week since this first started in every major airport in the US. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## High Desert Elk

hondodawg said:


> I finally had it over Christmas and New Years. The worst prolonged cold/flu for me. I’m actually shocked I caught it this late in the game. I’ve been traveling/flying every week since this first started in every major airport in the US.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It's because it's easier to "catch" it now.


----------



## backcountry

Hope you get better 2Full and the asthma is transient.

It's burning through Cedar right now. Seeing breakthroughs with vaccines and prior infection. Person we know who is the worst off had a prior infection. 

Sounds like we are still 1-2 weeks away from projected peak in Utah. We are isolating more aggressively starting next week but really only means not going to neighbors house for dinner 1-2 times and my daughter not seeing her grandfather for a few weeks as he didn't want to bubble up. Besides Walgreens only a handful of people are masking. Given broader estimates project upwards of 50% of the US might eventually be infected with Omicron I can't blame folks. And data seems to indicate smell and taste aren't as affected so there's hope it's affecting fewer systems. I still assume not get it.

Stay healthy and safe folks.


----------



## Ray

My entire family got it 2 weeks ago, everyone in my immediate family and my extended, on both sides, one of which has heart disease. Covid is nothing more than a cold.

that’s not to take away from those that lost people or have had the opposite experience, it’s simply my experience.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

colorcountrygunner said:


> When it comes to being in close contact with infected people I have been in the belly of the beast a whole heck of a lot over these past 2 years. Not vaccinated and only wear a mask when I'm forced to. Can't catch it for the life of me. I get tested weekly at work too.


I spoke too soon. I guess sharing a house and a bed with a covid positive person finally gave me enough of a viral load to come down with it. Last night was rough with me starting to feel run down with chills and body aches. Barely slept at all last night.


----------



## Vanilla

Ray said:


> that’s not to take away from those that lost people or have had the opposite experience, it’s simply my experience.


We should be hoping this becomes virtually everyone's experience, and then we can get on with our lives and quit talking or thinking about this. Unfortunately, the current *630+ people in the hospital and dozens and dozens of folks that have died the last few weeks alone from this have not been able to have your experience.

I long for the day when basically everyone gets to have your experience and we can truly just call this another version of the common cold. That will be a good day. I'm pretty tired of even thinking about this.


*Utah numbers only.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Vanilla said:


> We should be hoping this becomes virtually everyone's experience, and then we can get on with our lives and quit talking or thinking about this. Unfortunately, the current *630+ people in the hospital and dozens and dozens of folks that have died the last few weeks alone from this have not been able to have your experience.
> 
> I long for the day when basically everyone gets to have your experience and we can truly just call this another version of the common cold. That will be a good day. I'm pretty tired of even thinking about this.
> 
> 
> *Utah numbers only.


As morbid as it sounds, only until the number of daily's becomes acceptable because this virus will not be eradicated. A vast number of us are and have been ready to get on with our lives. As fast as the newest variant spreads, there is no way to stay how things have been.

I wonder how many deaths are attributed to the original (alpha) strain from 2 years ago against the newest variants. The alpha, beta, charlie, delta, echo....strains are still around.


----------



## Ray

I’m over it, I’m going back to the way I lived pre-covid. Taking the family to Disneyland all next week, then when I get home, I’ll go back to doing Brazilian jiu jitsu 5 days a week and hitting the gym 5 days a week. Hell, I might even start licking doorknobs. 

living in fear is no way to live, I refuse to teach my children to be fearful.


----------



## Vanilla

Ray said:


> I’m over it, I’m going back to the way I lived pre-covid. Taking the family to Disneyland all next week, then when I get home, I’ll go back to doing Brazilian jiu jitsu 5 days a week and hitting the gym 5 days a week. Hell, I might even start licking doorknobs.
> 
> living in fear is no way to live, I refuse to teach my children to be fearful.


Acknowledging that a virus is putting people in the hospital and killing folks isn’t living in fear, it’s reality. Some might say it’s not burying your head in the sand or being stupid. 

I don’t see anything wrong with what you’re planning to do. Lots of people have safely been doing those things for a long time. I don’t think you’re wearing any badge of toughness announcing how “not fearful” you are by going back to this now.


----------



## Ray

Vanilla said:


> Acknowledging that a virus is putting people in the hospital and killing folks isn’t living in fear, it’s reality. Some might say it’s not burying your head in the sand or being stupid.


I never said acknowledging the virus has killed people is living in fear, so either learn some reading comprehension or stop putting words in my mouth. I literally acknowledged the fact that people have suffered from the virus 2 posts ago, go back and read it, if you must.

I’m not “going back” to anything, I’ve been training in BJJ and hitting the gym ever since this stupid virus started. If anything, I’m a more efficient fighter and in better shape than I was before this entire thing started.

lastly, this isn’t some public display of toughness, the title of this thread is “who is worried”, so whenever I post on it, I keep it geared towards that. I’ve been very consistent with my message on this thread.


----------



## Vanilla

Ray said:


> I’m over it, *I’m going back to the way I lived pre-covid.* Taking the family to Disneyland all next week, then when I get home, *I’ll go back to *doing Brazilian jiu jitsu 5 days a week and hitting the gym 5 days a week. Hell, I might even start licking doorknobs.





Ray said:


> *I’m not “going back” to anything*, I’ve been training in BJJ and hitting the gym ever since this stupid virus started.





Ray said:


> so either learn some reading comprehension or stop putting words in my mouth


Sure Ray. I'm putting words in your mouth and don't read good. You got me! You got me good.


----------



## Jedidiah

LOL. You watch Vanilla for long enough and you begin to realize he's only here to pick a side in someone else's argument and be a jackass for the sake of arguing. (Not the "sake of argument", the sake of arguing...as in just to expel gas from his face.)


----------



## DallanC

The worst thing about the virus / pandemic is how tribal and political the entire thing has become.

-DallanC


----------



## colorcountrygunner

DallanC said:


> The worst thing about the virus / pandemic is how tribal and political the entire thing has become.
> 
> -DallanC


Tribalism and politics is all Americans know anymore.


----------



## Ray

Jedidiah said:


> LOL. You watch Vanilla for long enough and you begin to realize he's only here to pick a side in someone else's argument and be a jackass for the sake of arguing. (Not the "sake of argument", the sake of arguing...as in just to expel gas from his face.)


yeah, he’s a bit of a miserable person. 

vanilla, I said get back to because I had coviid and haven’t been able to go for 3 weeks. I’ll be back from my trip the 23rd, first day I’ll be back on the mat training since having covid will be the 24th, open mat is 7pm-8pm, ask for Ray.
Unified BJJ
10382 s jordan gateway, south jordan 84095


----------



## High Desert Elk

DallanC said:


> The worst thing about the virus / pandemic is how tribal and political the entire thing has become.
> 
> -DallanC


This virus and pandemic began with the stench of politics.

It hit in an election year...


----------



## Jedidiah

DallanC said:


> The worst thing about the virus / pandemic is how tribal and political the entire thing has become.
> 
> -DallanC


The worst thing about the virus/pandemic just showed up, actually.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Jedidiah said:


> The worst thing about the virus/pandemic just showed up, actually.


Looks like only one dose is the key in Alberta...


----------



## bowguyonly

Salt Lake City Tribune editorial calls for National Guard to keep unvaccinated people in their homes


The Salt Lake City Tribune editorial board called for the government to deploy the National Guard to prevent unvaccinated citizens from leaving their house.




www.foxnews.com






This is wrong.

I told all of you it will get here and now it is. The plan is coming into fruition.

This is wrong. 100% un American. Support it and I consider you just the same as a traitor. Disgusting.


----------



## bowguyonly

They are going to rename and redefine what terrorist is and come for all of us. The bubble in Utah WILL pop and they WILL come for everyone. It isn't a matter of if but a matter of when.
They already have renamed it. They renamed it to patriots. People who love our freedom. You have no clue what we have. 

The vaccines are crap. It's population control. You are hunters for God sake. You can sense something is wrong. Don't wait until it is too late.

What do the Vax and unvax have in common? You will NEVER be fully vaccinated. 100% guaranteed.


----------



## Jedidiah

High Desert Elk said:


> Looks like only one dose is the key in Alberta...


Not by very much. These are rates, by the way. There is a considerably higher RATE of infection if you are two or three dose vaccinated. Same in Ontario, UK, and Israel.


----------



## Vanilla

Ray said:


> open mat is 7pm-8pm, ask for Ray.
> Unified BJJ
> 10382 s jordan gateway, south jordan 84095


Did you just challenge me to a fight on an Internet forum because I pointed out how you were wrong with your own words? Ha! That takes the cake. You need a break Ray. 

Oli, the Salt Lake Tribune will NEVER be the voice of reason in Utah. Never. Don’t worry about their little temper tantrum. Nobody around here would stand for it.


----------



## High Desert Elk

bowguyonly said:


> Salt Lake City Tribune editorial calls for National Guard to keep unvaccinated people in their homes
> 
> 
> The Salt Lake City Tribune editorial board called for the government to deploy the National Guard to prevent unvaccinated citizens from leaving their house.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is wrong.
> 
> I told all of you it will get here and now it is. The plan is coming into fruition.
> 
> This is wrong. 100% un American. Support it and I consider you just the same as a traitor. Disgusting.


Editorials are opinions, not legislation...



bowguyonly said:


> They are going to rename and redefine what terrorist is and come for all of us. The bubble in Utah WILL pop and they WILL come for everyone. It isn't a matter of if but a matter of when.
> They already have renamed it. They renamed it to patriots. People who love our freedom. You have no clue what we have.
> 
> The vaccines are crap. It's population control. You are hunters for God sake. You can sense something is wrong. Don't wait until it is too late.
> 
> What do the Vax and unvax have in common? You will NEVER be fully vaccinated. 100% guaranteed.


Ummmm....


----------



## bowguyonly

Don't be a fool. It's in local news which means they have their eyes on this state and it is coming. 

You guys need to organize on a local level. Or just laugh your ass off at me until they come knocking at your door. 

Do none of you know history or what?


----------



## High Desert Elk

Jedidiah said:


> Not by very much. These are rates, by the way. There is a considerably higher RATE of infection if you are two or three dose vaccinated. Same in Ontario, UK, and Israel.
> View attachment 150909


But nevertheless, one dose is better than none and certainly better than many...


----------



## High Desert Elk

bowguyonly said:


> Don't be a fool. It's in local news which means they have their eyes on this state and it is coming.
> 
> You guys need to organize on a local level. Or just laugh your ass off at me until they come knocking at your door.
> 
> Do none of you know history or what?


🤨


----------



## Ray

Vanilla said:


> Did you just challenge me to a fight on an Internet forum because I pointed out how you were wrong with your own words? Ha! That takes the cake. You need a break Ray.
> 
> Oli, the Salt Lake Tribune will NEVER be the voice of reason in Utah. Never. Don’t worry about their little temper tantrum. Nobody around here would stand for it.


Nope, simply invited you to an open mat. I’d love to have you there 😘

it might help you get over your fears, you won’t think about covid making it to where you can’t breathe when someone takes your back and puts you in a rear naked choke. I would be doing you a favor, really.


----------



## Jedidiah

High Desert Elk said:


> But nevertheless, one dose is better than none and certainly better than many...


For some, not so much for others. This next month or so should be mildly interesting. Of course the next wave in the spring will be the real eye opener, whatever happens.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Jedidiah said:


> For some, not so much for others. This next month or so should be mildly interesting. Of course the next wave in the spring will be the real eye opener, whatever happens.
> 
> View attachment 150910


Pandemic will be declared over in the spring. Nothing more to gain...


----------



## Jedidiah

Ray said:


> Nope, simply invited you to an open mat. I’d love to have you there 😘
> 
> it might help you get over your fears, you won’t think about covid making it to where you can’t breathe when someone takes your back and puts you in a rear naked choke. I would be doing you a favor, really.


I would Venmo you $100 if you put Vanilla in a "rear naked choke".


----------



## Ray

Jedidiah said:


> I would Venmo you $100 if you put Vanilla in a "rear naked choke".


Hahahah I’d pay for the opportunity to!


----------



## High Desert Elk

Jedidiah said:


> I would Venmo you $100 if you put Vanilla in a "rear naked choke".


Almost sounds like the name of a prison movie or something.


----------



## Bax*

Huh…. I sure wish I could mentally erase Jedediah’s comment 😂


----------



## Vanilla

Bax* said:


> Huh…. I sure wish I could mentally erase Jedediah’s comment 😂


Didn’t see it. He’s the one loser I’ve actually ignored on this forum. 



Ray said:


> Hahahah I’d pay for the opportunity to!


The opportunity to do what? Are you still not trying to act tough publicly?


----------



## Lone_Hunter

So much misinformation these days it's hard to know WTF is going on anymore, with anything. As the Kung Flu goes, here's what I'm fairly certain of:

- Vaccination will only reduce symptoms, or keep you out of the hospital, it WILL NOT prevent you from catching it.

- Wearing a mask is most effective if your already sick. All the crap you cough or sneeze up will be contained. If its already aerosolized in the air, and your healthy, a mask doesn't do much. Hint: Someone farts so bad it could peel paint, and your wearing a mask, can you still smell it? Odds are, yes, you can smell it.

- The counter argument to the above, is you don't know when your sick and transmitted the virus half the time.

- Omicron is more tranmissable then Delta, but seems to be more mild. Apparently, it's more bennfiical to a virus to not kill it's host.

-It's a safe bet that it's Omicron that is spreading like wildfire as of the last week or so. See numbers:




__





Case Counts | coronavirus







coronavirus.utah.gov





-I guess, the older your kids are, the faster it spreads. See Nebo school district report:




__





Nebo Counts by School - Google Drive







docs.google.com





- In the naming conventions (greek), Xi comes before Omicron, but Xi was skipped because the WHO didn't want to piss off China.. you know, the country this **** came from.

- Fauci definitely had a hand in the research. Ironic how the guy who's supposed to guide the US through this virus, also had a hand in it. Sooo Ironic.

- I think this time, nobody's dodging the Coof. Only a matter of time before everyone has it at least once. Thankfully seems to be more mild. Maybe we'll finally achieve some level of herd immunity until the virus mutates again... kinda like the seasonal flu.

-Covid isn't going away, kinda like the flu, it's here to stay.


As an aside,
Editorial = opinion.
An editorial, from any source with Salt Lake in front of it, means it's a liberal opnion, or to put it more bluntly, a communist authoritarian opinion.


----------



## Jedidiah

Vanilla said:


> Didn’t see it. He’s the one loser I’ve actually ignored on this forum.


And I consider that to be my second greatest victory on this forum. Hope you're vaccinated buddy, don't forget to get boosted.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Lone_Hunter said:


> - Fauci definitely had a hand in the research. Ironic how the guy who's supposed to guide the US through this virus, also had a hand in it. Sooo Ironic.


I would think more convenient than ironic.


----------



## Jedidiah

Lone_Hunter said:


> So much misinformation these days it's hard to know WTF is going on anymore, with anything. As the Kung Flu goes, here's what I'm fairly certain of:
> 
> - Vaccination will only reduce symptoms, or keep you out of the hospital, it WILL NOT prevent you from catching it. *This is changing according to the last three weeks of data, it's actually insane how the facts have managed to stay out of mainstream media.*
> 
> - Omicron is more tranmissable then Delta, but seems to be more mild. Apparently, it's more bennfiical to a virus to not kill it's host. *More contagious among vaccinated specifically.*
> 
> -I guess, the older your kids are, the faster it spreads. See Nebo school district report: *Also people are going over to grandma's house and killing her without even knowing it.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nebo Counts by School - Google Drive
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> docs.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> - In the naming conventions (greek), Xi comes before Omicron, but Xi was skipped because the WHO didn't want to piss off China.. you know, the country this **** came from. *Made in China, conceived and paid for by us.*
> 
> - Fauci definitely had a hand in the research. Ironic how the guy who's supposed to guide the US through this virus, also had a hand in it. Sooo Ironic. *See above.*
> 
> -Covid isn't going away, kinda like the flu, it's here to stay. *The flu came from China too, kind of a strange coincidence huh?*
> 
> 
> Lets go Brandon. *#LGBFJB*


----------



## Ray

Vanilla said:


> Didn’t see it. He’s the one loser I’ve actually ignored on this forum.
> 
> 
> 
> The opportunity to do what? Are you still not trying to act tough publicly?


The opportunity to strangle you.

Not sure how saying Covid wasn’t bad, even in the slightest, is acting tough..?
I gave you a time and location to workout our differences, it‘s not an act at all, it’s literally an invitation to an open mat.
It will even be when I’m at my weakest, I will have already lifted for the day, done my cardio and I will have done drills from 6-7, right before the open mat. If I wanted to act tough, I would have you meet me when I’m at my strongest, not when I’m wiped


----------



## 3arabians

UWN meets UFC! Wow this place lit up all the sudden. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Jedidiah

3arabians said:


> UWN meets UFC! Wow this place lit up all the sudden.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


yw


----------



## Ray

3arabians said:


> UWN meets UFC! Wow this place lit up all the sudden.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Lol not UFC at all, just a 6 minute match, submission only. They will have vanilla sign a waiver, so if he gets injured he can’t try to sue.


----------



## johnnycake

Y'all need murder Jesus. 

Ray, I can explain to you why your post saying "it's just a cold...not to take away from others..." is absurdly myopic, but I can't understand it for you. That's your job. But based on the whole chain of discussion here, that dog is unemployable.


----------



## Ray

johnnycake said:


> Y'all need murder Jesus.
> 
> Ray, I can explain to you why your post saying "it's just a cold...not to take away from others..." is absurdly myopic, but I can't understand it for you. That's your job. But based on the whole chain of discussion here, that dog is unemployable.


I was merely conveying what my experience was, it was a cold. I can give a firsthand account and still try to be empathetic towards others suffering, that had a different experience.

What exactly do you take issue with here? The fact that I made it through covid unscathed, while you lost lung capacity, or the empathy I was trying to convey? Neither would surprise me, honestly.


----------



## backcountry

Scientist discovered that the influenza virus originated in China? All three strains that consistently affect humans? That's news to me.

And speaking of information here is the infection and severe outcome metrics for Utah. Unvaccinated are consistently higher in all categories, not a shock: 1.8x higher for testing positive, 5.1x higher for hospitalization, 6.8x higher for death (data from last 28 days, Omicron arrived in Utah 44 days ago).










I can't find a comparison nation wide but most states here are experiencing something similar to Utah, ie much higher rates of infection for unvaccinated.










Given Omicron is estimated to represent 98% of total cases this would indicate the vaccines still provide better benefit than none. Once again, that's just logical given the diverse way in which immunity is developed even if antibodies wane.

We won't really know full comparisons until after the Omicron surge is over but it seems unsupported by data that the vaccinated experience higher rates of infection that the unvaccinated. 

That SLTribune OpEd was junk. It's a bad idea and will never happen. Most of America has moved on in some fashion. I think it's just a matter of evaluating hospital capacity before messaging starts to make it clear we are moving into an epidemic/endemic paradigm. And then public health officials just have to be honest that we'll be living with a certain level of infection, hospitalization and death that's deemed the acceptable tradeoff to whatever normal we choose to return to. It could be several more years of figure higher than we are use to for something like influenza but we now have vaccines, therapeutics, treatments and vastly more knowledge than we did 2 years ago. 

Pretty amazing to think about where we all were almost 2 years ago when the first images started appearing out of China. Fingers crossed my little girl doesn't understand our experience when she enters school 3-4 years from now.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Had this never been used as a political weapon to influence the outcome of an election, we:

1) would be more open minded on how best to handle the situation and understand what the needs of others truly are.

2) be more willing to be united to overcome this hardship none of us asked for (does not mean living life afraid of what you cannot control).

3) likely have fewer deaths in the tally sheet.

4) be officially done with this mess.


----------



## Catherder

This thread got pretty weird today.  

I had been thinking of posting on here for a few days. I guess in reading some of the comments about "moving on" or "not scared", I basically feel like I have done that too. However, it may have been different than others. I was vaccinated early, and boostered this fall. Frankly, I haven't "worried" about rona that much until recently, worked my tail off at my job (both good and bad there), saw our daughter get married, and basically did the things in life I likely would have if rona wasn't around. My kids did great in school last year wearing an "oppressive" mask and are doing well this year without. I consider myself and my family blessed in that regard, as I know others have not been as fortunate. I basically did what was in my control to reduce risk and went on with life.

So what happened recently? In November, my wife was diagnosed with breast cancer. That is a much bigger life changer than some mask mandate. Besides the aspect of treating the cancer, she now is more at risk for rona too. So some adjustments are needed. We both got boostered upon her diagnosis. She is going through chemo right now. This week, she and my daughter had respiratory signs (coughing, congestion) . She and I went in for testing and are (still ) awaiting results. (I am asymptomatic) However, she is better today, so it looks like she won't get too sick if it proved to be omicron calling. It did cause her to have a chemo treatment delayed. We are hopeful for her long term recovery and are thankful for the help others have given us the last month or so.

As for the virus itself, it seems clear that almost all experts now agree that we are heading into "endemicity" where we will have sporadic flare-ups but it won't be so disruptive. Yes, that probably means annual or periodic boosters which will get the antivaxxers frothing, but at this point, that's the way it is apparently. Of course, the transition into endemicity will be (and is) used by political partisans to advance their angle. I have no doubt that the bickering will persist. This is sad. I also predict that if we can get through the next 2-3 weeks, things will get a lot better generally. It already is where omicron hit earliest.

Anyway, enough rambling, be kind to each other and lets get back to fishin' and huntin' instead of the stuff on the last few pages.  


Addendum. One quick comment on the Alberta stats. While interesting, it is an outlier in most respects from statistics presented in almost every other jurisdiction. As a wise statistician will tell you, It's worth following but it doesn't "disprove" what everyone else is reporting. However, even in that report, unvaccinated people represented 18% of the cases and 30% of the hospitalizations, so it *still* shows vax is doing it's main job, which is keeping one out of the ICU. Peace, out.


----------



## Ray

I’m sorry to hear about your wife, Cath. Let me know if you guys need anything, I just had covid, so I wouldn’t be a risk, can grab ya stuff, if you need


----------



## backcountry

Best of health to your wife, Catherder. I hope your results come back negative and she is able to schedule her treatment at the earliest possible time. Take care of yourself and each other.


----------



## backcountry

*deleted


----------



## Jedidiah

Yeah but it's not an outlier, it's just that not every country reports their cases/hospitalizations/ICU on a daily or even weekly basis. Only 78% of Albertans are fully vaccinated and 19% are unvaccinated, that means the vaccine has officially just started being a liability in regard to infection. While the fact that it's that high now is a huge deal, the speed at which it changed (about 2 weeks to flip completely) is even scarier. Below is a screenshot of Ontario area hospitals ICU rates flipping over to 50% vaccinated in ICU. In the few days before Christmas, vaccinated in ICU was less than 10%. Below that is a screenshot of overall cases/hospitalizations/deaths in the UK where you can see the infection rate for vaccinated is double the unvaccinated rate, that table is rates for a four week period and doesn't fully reflect the massive increase in hospitalizations among vaccinated that has happened in the last three weeks.

Even if the vaccine kept you symptom free for life and that never changed, what does that mean when you're more likely to infect others? What if you're more infectious to everyone else as long as you live?


----------



## Jedidiah

backcountry said:


> Scientist discovered that the influenza virus originated in China? All three strains that consistently affect humans? That's news to me.


The flu comes from Asia, mainly China. Almost every H1N1, H3N2, H3N3, H4242N2344234 whatever virus that's been talked about in the news in the last 20 years has come from China or Southeast Asia.








Flu comes fresh from Asia each year, study finds


Flu viruses evolve freshly somewhere in east or southeast Asia every year, spreading around the world over the next nine months before dying out, researchers reported on Wednesday.




www.reuters.com


----------



## Jedidiah

Links for anyone who's interested in morbid hypotheses like I am:






Datasets - Ontario Data Catalogue







covid-19.ontario.ca







https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#vaccine-outcomes








COVID-19 vaccine monthly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 48, 2021 to 2022)


Data on the real-world effectiveness and impact of the COVID-19 vaccines.




www.gov.uk







https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/8a51c65b-f95a-4fb8-bd97-65f47109f41f


----------



## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> The flu comes from Asia, mainly China. Almost every H1N1, H3N2, H3N3, H4242N2344234 whatever virus that's been talked about in the news in the last 20 years has come from China or Southeast Asia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Flu comes fresh from Asia each year, study finds
> 
> 
> Flu viruses evolve freshly somewhere in east or southeast Asia every year, spreading around the world over the next nine months before dying out, researchers reported on Wednesday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


That actually doesn't support your claim unless you assume, ie not backed by the science in your link, that "E-SE Asia" just means China.


And many countries provide the data you claim doesn't exist. Here's Canada at large:










You are using outliers to prove some odd point. And even when you look at your data, outcomes aren't as you claim. The table you provided from the UK actually shows vaccine efficacy perfectly for reducing hospitalization and death as it's multiple times lower across all age brackets for the vaccinated. And that's just with two doses, which means waning immunity for most.

And if that data is 4 weeks old it captures the impact of Omicron perfectly.

And a temporary increase in cases doesn't mean vaccinated individuals are more infectious. Many factors could be at play, especially since many of the countries use vaccination status to determine access to crowded venues. 

You appear to be using outliers to prove a conspiracy theory about vaccines increasing transmissibility that's very common on the internet. You are cherry picking countries that are outliers to justify your claims all the while the data doesn't, and likely can't, prove your point.


----------



## High Desert Elk

A lot of illness originated from China, including the Black Death of 1348.


----------



## backcountry

So?


----------



## Jedidiah

lol outliers...three first world countries with top notch medical systems report vaccinated case rates steeply increasing in the last 3 weeks and those are outliers, and "here's cumulative data literally up to the point where everything changed and that's proof you're wrong". Things are about to get very weird for you.


----------



## backcountry

If only we had a highly transmissible VOC that had already been reported to have noticeable vaccine escape to explain "vaccinated case rates steeply increasing in the last 3 weeks"?

And it's hard to know what that data is without more context, like location. And you switched the metrics so it's pure case numbers. Given what we know about Omicron it makes complete sense we'd see that increase in pure numbers amongst the vaccinated if the majority are vaccinated like the UK. 

The weekly report from the UK explicitly states, 



> We present data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths by vaccination status. These
> raw data should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness as the data does not take
> into account inherent biases present such as differences in risk, behaviour and testing in the
> vaccinated and unvaccinated populations


And your fake quote doesn't actually reflect reality. You should spend more time understanding why cherry picking data, especially from statistical outliers, is considered bad science or pseudoscience.


----------



## Catherder

Ray said:


> I’m sorry to hear about your wife, Cath. Let me know if you guys need anything, I just had covid, so I wouldn’t be a risk, can grab ya stuff, if you need



Thank you, Ray. That is a very kind offer. We are doing pretty well at present. 


One final comment on the Alberta stuff. (I promise) 
.Without even thinking hard, I could come up with 2 plausible reasons why the raw stats could look how they do without interpretation. First, children are usually put into the unvaccinated cohort. As is known, children usually (but not always) have milder disease than adults to rona. Utah does this in their statistics. When the ditzy news anchor reports that 62.9% of Utahns are fully vaccinated, that number does include children who may be ineligible in the unvaccinated fraction. Obviously, if so, then it makes sense that the rona cases per 100,000 would be as they are. Second, possible reason could be that the unvaccinated cohort had a higher rate of recent infection with Delta variant and thus has some protection against omicron. I don't have the time or energy to suss that out, but a critical analysis would have to look at that. The only way to truly say that vaccination was making it more likely to get sick would be to compare cohorts by age and gender. (Compare 40-50 yr old vaccinated vs unvaccinated men etc.) The posted stats don't have that. On the more recently posted hospitalization stats, it showed slightly more vaccinated vs unvaccinated in the raw numbers. However, I think I saw that 78% of Albertans were vaccinated. So that vaccinated hospitalized number is drawing from a markedly larger pool of people. On a per case basis, these posted statistics that are supposed to be so bad *still* show that vaccines are your best bet to stay out of the hospital. 

So what does the Alberta health authority tell their citizens about vaccination?

Facts the only cure for vaccine misinformation | Alberta Health Services 

I guess they are in on the conspiracy too.


----------



## Jedidiah

Ok, here's the same graph by rates, it's not hard to click the button. These graphs are from the Ontario site, not Alberta. If the unvaccinated have a higher case rate because they have less restrictions, why didn't they have a higher case rate from August to December?









Here's the rates for 0-11 that I managed to screencap before they rolled the data back to October 24th, which is pretty suspicious honestly.










Back to Alberta data though, about 28% of them are boosted and the percentage of three-dose folks in the hospital is 18.25 and rising. How's a booster not keeping people out of the hospital when it clearly was this time last month? And so quick? And about three months into Omicron?

Edit: Catherder, that release is from months ago.


----------



## backcountry

It will be interesting to see what the next couple 7-14 day follow ups for these countries present. There are possible hypotheses that could explain the data but having a Fuller set could help. 

Sadly most of the conspiracy theories are originating from online ecosystems. The one he's pushing has been common for roughly three weeks and no amount of vetting the information seems to help. It's a classic example of Hutchinson's synopsis they are the "exhaust fumes of democracy" after a saturation point in information is available to the public.


----------



## backcountry

Even by your data the boosted individuals experience a 10% proportional decrease in infection. I ran similar analysis last night for most of the groups and proportionally the infection rate was lower.

It should be easy for an individual looking at the data to develop hypotheses about those trends consistent with epidemiological knowledge. The easiest hypothesis is boosters were rolled out first to the highest risk individuals which will always be disproportionately effected. That's especially true since Omicron hit right at two (to three) major holidays.

Claiming vaccination increases transmissibility is one of the least probable outcomes given what we know about disease and inoculation. As such it takes a lot more than cherry picking data from the few places seeing these spikes in vaccinated individuals to support that claim (you didn't just hypothesize but claimed Omicron was worse for the vaccinated). We have data from millions of cases across the US and we aren't seeing evidence to support that hypothesis.

You are playing with pseudo-science and misinformation.

*I don't believe you've linked the site "to click the button". It would be needed to analyze the data. But most places make it clear its not a reflection of vaccine effectiveness given the number of uncontrolled variables.


----------



## Jedidiah

This is the site with the Ontario-area hospitals where you can find the case rates:





__





Datasets - Ontario Data Catalogue







covid-19.ontario.ca





This is the Alberta site for vaccine outcomes:



https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#vaccine-outcomes



Edit: You might really enjoy looking at the numbers over time and you're in luck, you can download a CSV for a variety of historical data on their sites:





__





COVID-19 Vaccine Data in Ontario - Ontario Data Catalogue


As of June 16, all COVID-19 datasets will be updated weekly on Thursdays by 2pm. Please note that Cases by Vaccination Status data will no longer be published as of June 30, 2022. Please note that...




data.ontario.ca







https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#data-export


----------



## backcountry

Thx for the Ontario link, I think I missed it the first time. I've been using the Alberta one already.

I also don't have the time immediately to tease out all the definitions and run accurate comparisons.

Ultimately neither of those data sets are designed to display vaccine effectiveness and not remotely proper to justify claims about vaccines increasing transmissibility/contagiousness of Omicron. You have to respect data biases and limitations when making scientific claims and hypotheses. You are well outside their acceptable and proper use in your rhetoric.


----------



## Jedidiah

I don't think I used the word 'transmissibility'. I'm not saying the chances of transmission are increased per vaccinated individual, but that the virus is functionally being transmitted more due to the fact that they seem to be getting infected at least as much as unvaccinated and then going around infected like they weren't. When the rate of infection flips and ICU cases go from 15% to 50% in a month, clearly there is at least some kind of issue. At the very least it should give people some pause in requiring vaccinations, and get some people thinking about restricting vaccinated again.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

I'm on days 3 of his crap and I feel waaaay better than I did. The 2 days prior. Just did some 7 yard archery practice in the basement and that little bit of activity seems like it did me a world of good.


----------



## bowgy

Vanilla said:


> Didn’t see it. He’s the one loser I’ve actually ignored on this forum.
> 
> 
> 
> The opportunity to do what? Are you still not trying to act tough publicly?


Be careful Vanilla, you never know what you might be getting into.


----------



## Ray

bowgy said:


> Be careful Vanilla, you never know what you might be getting into.


that is a good one! Only 2 differences really.
1. I’m far from out of shape
2. BJJ is a real fighting technique.


----------



## bowgy

Ray said:


> that is a good one! Only 2 differences really.
> 1. I’m far from out of shape *That is great, I'm only in shape for KerrChung.*
> 2. BJJ is a real fighting technique. *So is Kumite, *


----------



## backcountry

There are some very unusual aspects of this thread that could have made folks bank if we had setup up a betting pool at it's inception.


----------



## bowgy

backcountry said:


> There are some very unusual aspects of this thread that could have made folks bank if we had setup up a betting pool at it's inception.
> 
> View attachment 150928


Ha ha, that is what I thought after being away from the internet for a few days and read through this thread, just had to make a comment.


----------



## Vanilla

Ray, we should meet. I’ll buy lunch. PM me and we’ll get something worked out in the next few weeks.


----------



## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> I don't think I used the word 'transmissibility'. I'm not saying the chances of transmission are increased per vaccinated individual, but that the virus is functionally being transmitted more due to the fact that they seem to be getting infected at least as much as unvaccinated and then going around infected like they weren't. When the rate of infection flips and ICU cases go from 15% to 50% in a month, clearly there is at least some kind of issue. At the very least it should give people some pause in requiring vaccinations, and get some people thinking about restricting vaccinated again.


The explanation above is getting much closer to likely hypotheticals for places like Alberta. But that's a bit different than what you said below in the bolded text:










There is just no publicly evidence it's "more contagious among vaccinated". It's looking like we'll be past the peak in most of the US & Europe by the end of the month; a couple weeks after that we'll hopefully have reports analyzing vaccine effectiveness during this surge. 

We should always be willing to adapt policy to changes in data. I personally wish we'd invested more in individual antibody testing for those with previous infection. But it would have to be done in a fashion that tested for a minimal threshold to participate similarly as the vaccinated. My memory from late 2020 was that capacity wasn't available to the public. (Catherder??).

Problem is vaccines are the only dose dependent measure we really currently have available. Infection induced immunity is really all over the map because of all the factors at play, from initial viral load to the pre-existing condition of the individual immune system. Some people that were unvaccinated and infected have no meaningful immunity because of the minimal viral load they were exposed to. Counting those with such naive immunity in with the vaccinated creates a very leaky boundary.

Incorporating individuals with prior infection is a logistical nightmare with current tools, at least that I'm aware of. I wish we were there but we're not from evidence I've seen. 

But the good news is the vaccines are still reducing severe outcomes compared to naive immune responses. And that's even with those with only two doses and all the waning antibodies that implies. Even the Alberta data is clear about that reality. And that's going to be a key factor in letting our healthcare workers recover enough to reinforce our hospital systems for whatever the next surge brings.


----------



## Ray

Point fighting is basically useless. It’s already very well established that BJJ is far superior, there are countless dojo storm videos by the Gracie’s and many others, as well as fights through UFC, Pride and ONE that all definitively show it


----------



## bowgy

Ray said:


> Point fighting is basically useless. It’s already very well established that BJJ is far superior, there are countless dojo storm videos by the Gracie’s and many others, as well as fights through UFC, Pride and ONE that all definitively show it


Too old to change, I will just stick with KerrChung


----------



## Ray

Vanilla said:


> Ray, we should meet. I’ll buy lunch. PM me and we’ll get something worked out in the next few weeks.


I would be down for that but you wouldn’t have to pay.
sorry if I came across as an ass, my fight or flight is slightly broken and always opts for the former and never the latter. I’m a work in progress.


----------



## Ray

bowgy said:


> Too old to change, I will just stick with KerrChung


I like your style! I shouldn’t say it’s useless, GSP is one of the greatest of all time and he was a black belt in karate and BJJ.It clearly helps people with striking, especially kicks.

I was actually listening to gsp talk about karate and he was saying the biggest problem with it these days is that it’s watered down and finding a real karate gym is super difficult. Same is happening with BJJ, honestly, In some gyms, they’re essentially paying for belt promotions, rather than earning them through skill


----------



## CPAjeff

Catherder - sorry to hear about your wife. Prayers sent.


----------



## backcountry

Yet another layer to the onion. Might be interesting to compare US v Canada. Several elements could help explain the epidemiological curve differences and why some provinces are outliers. Seems like it's better to have hypotheses than answers at this point in Omicron.


----------



## Jedidiah

At 800,000 cases per day (I know yours is daily cases per million) you basically have to expect our rate of vaccinated infections are close to the numbers recorded in Canada. The only way they didn't go at least close to equal the unvaccinated infection rate is if unvaccinated infection rates increased to some unreal number, and we know that isn't likely to be the case.


----------



## bowgy

Ray said:


> I like your style! I shouldn’t say it’s useless, GSP is one of the greatest of all time and he was a black belt in karate and BJJ.It clearly helps people with striking, especially kicks.
> 
> I was actually listening to gsp talk about karate and he was saying the biggest problem with it these days is that it’s watered down and finding a real karate gym is super difficult. Same is happening with BJJ, honestly, In some gyms, they’re essentially paying for belt promotions, rather than earning them through skill


I have to apologize, my attempt at being humorous failed. I know very little about the martial arts and fighting except for high school wrestling, a little from the military and some Aikido hand held moves that a Japanese friend taught me.

KerrChung is from an old joke, some guys were discussing what the best martial arts fighting technique was and they were each saying that theirs was the best when they realized one old guy hadn't said anything and they asked him what he thought was the best. He said that his KerrChung could defeat them all. They said what the H is KerrChung? He said, the sound that the action on my .45 makes when I rack the slide. He draws his 45 and racks the slide "KERRCHUNG"


----------



## High Desert Elk

I'd wager that people who are not vaccinated are less likely to run out and get tested when they develop a sniffle or slight cough. Vaccinated on the other hand...


----------



## Vanilla

High Desert Elk said:


> I'd wager that people who are not vaccinated are less likely to run out and get tested when they develop a sniffle or slight cough. Vaccinated on the other hand...


This is spot on. Especially considering that you can’t really get tested when you want to now and have to schedule it out a day or two later, or have to wait in a 2-3 (or more) hour line to do it. I don’t blame people for being hesitant to jump through those hoops. Omicrovid is going to burn it’s way through, no doubt!


----------



## Jedidiah

On the other hand there are likely vaccinated people out there who are asymptomatic but still at least somewhat contagious and just go about their daily lives...or go to concerts and other events with thousands of people at them.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Jedidiah said:


> On the other hand there are likely vaccinated people out there who are asymptomatic but still at least somewhat contagious and just go about their daily lives...or go to concerts and other events with thousands of people at them.


Unvaccinated don't live in a bubble either...


----------



## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> On the other hand there are likely vaccinated people out there who are asymptomatic but still at least somewhat contagious and just go about their daily lives...or go to concerts and other events with thousands of people at them.


To be fair, that's similarly true for unvaccinated given most of the US has zero requirements for social participation. Most unvaccinated people I know are actually engaging in more open behavior than vaccinated people I know, but that's highly biased anecdote.

Per case load....last I saw Utah was experiencing 50% unvaccinated and 40% 2dose/unboosted. That as a proportion still shows even the waning immunity of 2 doses helps. 

My best guess is our national trends based upon vaccine status & infection follow Canada at large better than Alberta. 

NY estimates calculated through the 9th still put effectiveness between 75-80% and unvaccinated case rates roughly 7x higher than those of the vaccinated. That data still has time to be edited as information trickles in but it does show vaccines still being a big factor in infection rates and outcomes.






COVID-19 Breakthrough Data


Cases and hospitalizations by vaccination status




coronavirus.health.ny.gov





With test positivity rates as high as they are this is burning through our country with a ton of asymptomatic individuals. But I haven't seen data that shows we are like Alberta.


----------



## bowgy

High Desert Elk said:


> I'd wager that people who are not vaccinated are less likely to run out and get tested when they develop a sniffle or slight cough. Vaccinated on the other hand...


Get your free tests.








COVID.gov/tests - Free at-home COVID-19 tests


Every home in the U.S. is eligible to order a 3rd round of free at-home tests. Order yours today.




www.covidtests.gov


----------



## backcountry

And rapid antigen tests bought from this date onward are covered by insurance, either directly at preferred locations or through reimbursement. They have to be FDA approved.


----------



## Bax*

Vanilla said:


> Ray, we should meet. I’ll buy lunch. PM me and we’ll get something worked out in the next few weeks.


It’s fine don’t invite me


----------



## 3arabians

Bax* said:


> It’s fine don’t invite me


Try offering to put him in a rear naked choke hold or perhaps an arm bar. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Bax*

3arabians said:


> Try offering to put him in a rear naked choke hold or perhaps an arm bar.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## johnnycake

3arabians said:


> Try offering to put him in a rear naked choke hold or perhaps an arm bar.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Throw in some of CCG's twinks and you might have something there


----------



## DallanC

The free home covid test kits are now available from the USPS:





__





COVID Home Tests | USPS


COVID Home Tests | USPS




special.usps.com





-DallanC


----------



## .45

Vanilla said:


> This is spot on. Especially considering that you can’t really get tested when you want to now and have to schedule it out a day or two later, or have to wait in a 2-3 (or more) hour line to do it. I don’t blame people for being hesitant to jump through those hoops. Omicrovid is going to burn it’s way through, no doubt!


This is not necessarily true Mr. Buddy Boy. I stopped at a local pharmacy just this afternoon, got tested, got the results in 15 minutes, cost me 60 bucks. No appointment. So it is possible you see?

No wonder Ray wants to kick your butt..😀


----------



## Bax*

.45 said:


> This is not necessarily true Mr. Buddy Boy. I stopped at a local pharmacy just this afternoon, got tested, got the results in 15 minutes, cost me 60 bucks. No appointment. So it is possible you see?
> 
> No wonder Ray wants to kick your butt..😀


We had to get my oldest kid tested today. Paid $15 at the pediatrician and it came back negative. So they ran a flu test. She has the flu. So I guess we are quarantining anyways because we dont want to pass the flu to people.


----------



## Vanilla

.45 said:


> This is not necessarily true Mr. Buddy Boy. I stopped at a local pharmacy just this afternoon, got tested, got the results in 15 minutes, cost me 60 bucks. No appointment.


Congrats!


----------



## High Desert Elk

Bax* said:


>


I'm sorry, just opened this thread again and this is just plain funny

😂😂😂


----------



## .45

Vanilla said:


> Congrats!


Thank you. Someday I'll tell you the story of my buff tag I drew last year and how Covid 19 snuck into our life's.


----------



## Catherder

FWIW, if your healthcare provider is IHC/Select Health, your primary care doctor likely has a kiosk set up where you can get a saliva PCR test at no cost. You register online, grab a kit from the display, fill out the form, provide enough saliva and leave. No waiting to take it. The results on the other hand, will take a while to get back, but that's the case in the lines too. 



.45 said:


> Thank you. Someday I'll tell you the story of my buff tag I drew last year and how Covid 19 snuck into our life's.


That sounds like a very sad tale, but worth hearing.


----------



## backcountry

This Omicron VOC is no joke. Roughly half my extended family got it in the last 3.5 weeks. About 60% unvaccinated and school seems to be primary vector for family that was vaccinated.

Will be interesting to see how long it burns through the nation. A source at the local hospital said their modeling was estimating peak around the 24-25th here.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> This Omicron VOC is no joke. Roughly half my extended family got it in the last 3.5 weeks. About 60% unvaccinated and school seems to be primary vector for family that was vaccinated.
> 
> Will be interesting to see how long it burns through the nation. A source at the local hospital said their modeling was estimating peak around the 24-25th here.


Sounds about right. Maybe with the legislatures help, we can reach peak a little sooner.   

School is almost certainly the avenue how my wife and daughter got it. Stupid car pool.


----------



## brisket

This thing ends when we stop complying. Turn off the TV. Stop reading corporate/mainstream media. Burn your masks. Start living your life.


----------



## Vanilla

brisket said:


> Start living your life.


This is the type of comment that bothers me, and probably why I was annoyed by Ray's "living in fear" comment above. It's something that I think fuels the division just as much as the vax and mask shamers on the other side of the isle. And it really bugs me when all sides do it, if I'm being honest. Just because someone takes this virus and pandemic seriously does not mean they are missing out on living their life. I'm someone that has taken measures to try and reduce spread of the virus and reduce chances of infecting myself and family members. I have no clue how effective that's been as I got covid (knowingly let my guard down a year ago...) and who knows what the real results of any of my efforts are? But I've also done the following:

Traveled all around the country for work, including to Florida for an in-person conference with ~1,000 people when Florida was the Delta variant capitol of the world. I've gone on vacations with my family. I attend religious services every week. I go to work. I go on my hunts. I had season tickets for Utah football this year and attended every game except one when I was on my deer hunt. We even attended the conference championship game as a family at an indoor stadium in Las Vegas. We're taking a plane trip next week to more enjoyable climates. I attended high school athletic events when they were very restricted on numbers when I was allowed to do so. I've participated in weekly youth activities and summer camps.

Most of this time I didn't do anything differently than I normally would, and when I felt like things with the virus were more concerning based upon numbers, it usually meant I put a mask on, and then went and did what I was going to do anyway. Yes, there have been a couple larger family gatherings over the last two years that got postponed, but that isn't life changing all that much and everyone was on board to not risk it as there are people involved that were higher risk for various reasons.

I just am tired of being told I live in fear or that I'm not living my life if I choose to wear a mask because people I trust say it will help. I'm tired of being told I'm not living my life because I am cognizant of what is going on around me and it concerns me. I'm sure people who hate masks and don't believe in them or a vaccine are tired of the mask/vax shamers (I am too, to be frank), but no more tired than I am of that group talking down to me just from the other side of the isle. I think both contingents of shamers on each side of the isle need to shut their pie holes.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> I think both contingents of shamers on each side of the isle need to shut their pie holes.


ROFLS...

-DallanC


----------



## backcountry

Agreed.

I don't expect anyone to mask or vaccinate even if I believe both are tools that have benefits.

But at the same time I'm still shocked that basically not wanting to get a novel disease is controversial. I get the flu shot every year for the same reason and I'll be honest that it's been very pleasant not to have a respiratory virus the last 2 years. I've had the real flu: a drop down knock you out experience for 5+ days that was excruciating. I'd assume never relive those days. I'd assume not get Covid for many reasons including it would inevitably run through my household given it's nearly impossible for us to isolate from each other.

I'm also not for mandates and believe we would benefit soon from a transition in messaging about managing the next two years in a downgraded status. 

But I also recognize this isn't over when we continue to experience 1700+ deaths a day and the highest spread of disease in a 100 years. I've seen what that has done to work environments. Our nation is dependent on healthy workers that can reliably show up every day. That's true from schooling to corporations. And the death toll is sobering.

I say live your life according to what risk you are willing to accept. We now have vaccines, tests (mostly) and treatments. But we can coexist respectfully as people who are fully open to pre-pandemic to behavior all the way to those who are still very locked down (elderly, immunocompromised, etc), and everything I'm between. And we need that respect to move forward because we have some serious work to do.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Vanilla said:


> This is the type of comment that bothers me, and probably why I was annoyed by Ray's "living in fear" comment above. It's something that I think fuels the division just as much as the vax and mask shamers on the other side of the isle. And it really bugs me when all sides do it, if I'm being honest. Just because someone takes this virus and pandemic seriously does not mean they are missing out on living their life. I'm someone that has taken measures to try and reduce spread of the virus and reduce chances of infecting myself and family members. I have no clue how effective that's been as I got covid (knowingly let my guard down a year ago...) and who knows what the real results of any of my efforts are? But I've also done the following:
> 
> Traveled all around the country for work, including to Florida for an in-person conference with ~1,000 people when Florida was the Delta variant capitol of the world. I've gone on vacations with my family. I attend religious services every week. I go to work. I go on my hunts. I had season tickets for Utah football this year and attended every game except one when I was on my deer hunt. We even attended the conference championship game as a family at an indoor stadium in Las Vegas. We're taking a plane trip next week to more enjoyable climates. I attended high school athletic events when they were very restricted on numbers when I was allowed to do so. I've participated in weekly youth activities and summer camps.
> 
> Most of this time I didn't do anything differently than I normally would, and when I felt like things with the virus were more concerning based upon numbers, it usually meant I put a mask on, and then went and did what I was going to do anyway. Yes, there have been a couple larger family gatherings over the last two years that got postponed, but that isn't life changing all that much and everyone was on board to not risk it as there are people involved that were higher risk for various reasons.
> 
> I just am tired of being told I live in fear or that I'm not living my life if I choose to wear a mask because people I trust say it will help. I'm tired of being told I'm not living my life because I am cognizant of what is going on around me and it concerns me. I'm sure people who hate masks and don't believe in them or a vaccine are tired of the mask/vax shamers (I am too, to be frank), but no more tired than I am of that group talking down to me just from the other side of the isle. I think both contingents of shamers on each side of the isle need to shut their pie holes.
> 
> Back to your regularly scheduled programming...


Being aware and cognizant and outright fear are two different things. If anyone wants to see outright fear, take a trip down to 'The Land of Entrapment', particularly Albuquerque and Santa Fe. State leadership has personified the virus as something that lurks in the shadows just waiting to jump on you unexpectedly.


----------



## Bax*

Well, I just finished up my second treatment of Zyklon-B pills and DDT enemas. I just need to stand next to the microwave for 17 more hours before my acid skin peel can take full effect and then I wont have to worry about COVID anymore. And I definitely wont worry about the mental image of Vanilla in a naked choke hold


----------



## High Desert Elk

Bax* said:


> And I definitely wont worry about the mental image of Vanilla in a naked choke hold


Man, I can't unread that.


----------



## Bax*

High Desert Elk said:


> Man, I can't unread that.


Me neither. Im on the phone with my therapist


----------



## DallanC

Bax* said:


> Me neither. Im on the phone with my therapist


Goob took your call?

-DallanC


----------



## Bax*

DallanC said:


> Goob took your call?
> 
> -DallanC


after my aforementioned covid regimen, I realized I was taking guidance from my dog. Been a long day trying to stay clear from the gamboo


----------



## backcountry

Does insurance cover the "Women n Guns" modality of therapy? I don't think I could afford Goob's going rate except for the "Walk n Talk" discount while cleaning up the Mirror Lake Highway.


----------



## backcountry

Looks like Omicron may literally be less crappy in Denver than Utah right now:









In Sewage, Clues to Omicron’s Surge


Tracking the virus in wastewater is helping some cities and hospitals respond to the most recent wave of the coronavirus, but a more coordinated national effort is needed, experts say.




nyti.ms


----------



## KineKilla

I think I've contracted the VID...

If not then it is simply the worst head cold/sinus affliction I have ever experienced in my 42 years. Unfortunately testing takes a few days or more to get results so I get to do my best to stay jome and be productive.

Sent from my SM-N976U using Tapatalk


----------



## Ray

😂 you guys need to Google what a rear naked choke is. It’s not nearly as perverse as you’re making it seem. 

As for the not living bit or living in fear, don’t take it personally or as an attack, Vanilla, not everything is about you. You might not be living in fear but there are lots of people that are and those are the ones people are referring to.

I agree extremism on either side is super annoying


----------



## backcountry

I ain't putting that into my search history.


----------



## backcountry




----------



## 7mm Reloaded

My Wife’s 34 year old , non vaccinated nephew caught it 2 months ago went in the hospital for 9 days and passed away. Maybe that was the Delta who knows?


----------



## caddis8

High Desert Elk said:


> Being aware and cognizant and outright fear are two different things. If anyone wants to see outright fear, take a trip down to 'The Land of Entrapment', particularly Albuquerque and Santa Fe. State leadership has personified the virus as something that lurks in the shadows just waiting to jump on you unexpectedly.


I would consider, however, that the demographics are pretty different. No one could argue with the numbers and effects that COVID had on Native American populations. The Navajo were hit particularly hard, as you know. The land of Entrapment does have it's shortcomings to be sure. But the population is significantly different and the cultural differences are pretty stark as well. Not to say they were right or wrong, you'd know the messaging better than I would.


----------



## bowgy

backcountry said:


> I ain't putting that into my search history.


That was my first thought also.


----------



## High Desert Elk

caddis8 said:


> I would consider, however, that the demographics are pretty different. No one could argue with the numbers and effects that COVID had on Native American populations. The Navajo were hit particularly hard, as you know. The land of Entrapment does have it's shortcomings to be sure. But the population is significantly different and the cultural differences are pretty stark as well. Not to say they were right or wrong, you'd know the messaging better than I would.


McKinley and San Juan counties are a long way from Bernalillo and Santa Fe counties. The hand-wringers are from the metro areas (Bernalillo and Santa Fe). The larger impact hitting the Navajo right now are suicides, actually, from the fallout of this mess: depression and substance abuse are the contributing factors. There are times when there are 3 funerals/burials per day related to this. I have several good and close acquaintances that are Navajo and think the world of them. 

This virus (and the handling of it) has had a major impact on thousands of people that has nothing to do with the cardiopulmonary system.

But the media won't tell you that....


----------



## caddis8

High Desert Elk said:


> This virus (and the handling of it) has had a major impact on thousands of people that has nothing to do with the cardiopulmonary system.
> 
> But the media won't tell you that....


I wouldn't disagree with you on that. It has had a lot of effects and many to be discovered. I've got some dear Navajo friends as well. It's been tough on them- especially because they are naturally less inclined for socialization. The grandfather has been in the hospital with COVID. Grandma (Matriarch) has been doing everything possible to help them family. They're from Arizona and told me how many of their extended family they lost. Pretty sad deal, and the after effects of depression/substance abuse are also equally terrible.


----------



## brisket

Vanilla said:


> This is the type of comment that bothers me, and probably why I was annoyed by Ray's "living in fear" comment above. It's something that I think fuels the division just as much as the vax and mask shamers on the other side of the isle. And it really bugs me when all sides do it, if I'm being honest. Just because someone takes this virus and pandemic seriously does not mean they are missing out on living their life. I'm someone that has taken measures to try and reduce spread of the virus and reduce chances of infecting myself and family members. I have no clue how effective that's been as I got covid (knowingly let my guard down a year ago...) and who knows what the real results of any of my efforts are? But I've also done the following:
> 
> Traveled all around the country for work, including to Florida for an in-person conference with ~1,000 people when Florida was the Delta variant capitol of the world. I've gone on vacations with my family. I attend religious services every week. I go to work. I go on my hunts. I had season tickets for Utah football this year and attended every game except one when I was on my deer hunt. We even attended the conference championship game as a family at an indoor stadium in Las Vegas. We're taking a plane trip next week to more enjoyable climates. I attended high school athletic events when they were very restricted on numbers when I was allowed to do so. I've participated in weekly youth activities and summer camps.
> 
> Most of this time I didn't do anything differently than I normally would, and when I felt like things with the virus were more concerning based upon numbers, it usually meant I put a mask on, and then went and did what I was going to do anyway. Yes, there have been a couple larger family gatherings over the last two years that got postponed, but that isn't life changing all that much and everyone was on board to not risk it as there are people involved that were higher risk for various reasons.
> 
> I just am tired of being told I live in fear or that I'm not living my life if I choose to wear a mask because people I trust say it will help. I'm tired of being told I'm not living my life because I am cognizant of what is going on around me and it concerns me. I'm sure people who hate masks and don't believe in them or a vaccine are tired of the mask/vax shamers (I am too, to be frank), but no more tired than I am of that group talking down to me just from the other side of the isle. I think both contingents of shamers on each side of the isle need to shut their pie holes.
> 
> Back to your regularly scheduled programming...





Vanilla said:


> This is the type of comment that bothers me, and probably why I was annoyed by Ray's "living in fear" comment above. It's something that I think fuels the division just as much as the vax and mask shamers on the other side of the isle. And it really bugs me when all sides do it, if I'm being honest. Just because someone takes this virus and pandemic seriously does not mean they are missing out on living their life. I'm someone that has taken measures to try and reduce spread of the virus and reduce chances of infecting myself and family members. I have no clue how effective that's been as I got covid (knowingly let my guard down a year ago...) and who knows what the real results of any of my efforts are? But I've also done the following:
> 
> Traveled all around the country for work, including to Florida for an in-person conference with ~1,000 people when Florida was the Delta variant capitol of the world. I've gone on vacations with my family. I attend religious services every week. I go to work. I go on my hunts. I had season tickets for Utah football this year and attended every game except one when I was on my deer hunt. We even attended the conference championship game as a family at an indoor stadium in Las Vegas. We're taking a plane trip next week to more enjoyable climates. I attended high school athletic events when they were very restricted on numbers when I was allowed to do so. I've participated in weekly youth activities and summer camps.
> 
> Most of this time I didn't do anything differently than I normally would, and when I felt like things with the virus were more concerning based upon numbers, it usually meant I put a mask on, and then went and did what I was going to do anyway. Yes, there have been a couple larger family gatherings over the last two years that got postponed, but that isn't life changing all that much and everyone was on board to not risk it as there are people involved that were higher risk for various reasons.
> 
> I just am tired of being told I live in fear or that I'm not living my life if I choose to wear a mask because people I trust say it will help. I'm tired of being told I'm not living my life because I am cognizant of what is going on around me and it concerns me. I'm sure people who hate masks and don't believe in them or a vaccine are tired of the mask/vax shamers (I am too, to be frank), but no more tired than I am of that group talking down to me just from the other side of the isle. I think both contingents of shamers on each side of the isle need to shut their pie holes.
> 
> Back to your regularly scheduled programming...


I'm sorry my comment bothered you, it was not meant as divisive, but rather as a solution. A solution for all. D's, R's, jabbed, unjabbed. Everyone. The biggest problem with covid is not covid itself, but rather the government/media/big tech response to covid (i.e. censorship and suppression of early treatment protocols, censorship of anyone defying the mainstream approved covid narrative, lockdowns, vaccine mandates, masks mandates, etc.). If nothing changes, they will continue to propagandize and freak us out with the next scary variant, then the one after that, and the one after that. This will drag on as long as we let it drag on.

I see a couple ways out of this:

Mass non-compliance, Ghandi-style.
The politicians are in the hot seat and change course. The looming mid-term elections might just do the trick.
Number 2 is happening more and more as the approved narrative is being walked back. Suddenly the CDC says cloth masks don't work (which we've known since the beginning). The overturning of the vaccine mandate for businesses of over 100 employees. The doctors behind the early treatment protocols are having their voices heard. Just this week, Boris Johnson was feeling political pressure and ended all restrictions, you no longer have to show your papers to eat at a restaurant. The Canadian truckers rally is also extremely encouraging. There have been ever increasing good signs for this over the last couple of weeks. The approved covid narrative is cracking, and eventually the truth will out.


----------



## RandomElk16

7mm Reloaded said:


> My Wife’s 34 year old , non vaccinated nephew caught it 2 months ago went in the hospital for 9 days and passed away. Maybe that was the Delta who knows?


Sorry for your loss.

My sweet neighbor passed away this week after a ~25ish day stay in the ICU. She was 46. Don't know vax status, nor would it be appropriate for me to ask. 


Regardless, this thing sucks. No matter which "side" (what a stupid concept) people are on... it sucks.


----------



## High Desert Elk

SARS-2 Origins?

So, according to the abstract, this "bug" has been with us for quit some time. Why now?

With a worlds population (in 2020) of 7+ billion people, 1.4 billion in China alone, why has it taken this long for this virus to finally surface in the human population when it doesn't naturally circulate in the first place according to its ancestral lineage?


----------



## backcountry

They offer several explanations in the Discussion section for why it might not have been observed before.

*I should first caveat that I don't know if this Nature study has stood up under almost 2 more years of data and analysis.



> This long divergence period suggests there are unsampled virus lineages circulating in horseshoe bats that have zoonotic potential due to the ancestral position of the human-adapted contact residues in the SARS-CoV-2 RBD. *Without better sampling, however, it is impossible to estimate whether or how many of these additional lineages exist.*





> With horseshoe bats currently the most plausible origin of SARS-CoV-2, it is important to consider that sarbecoviruses circulate in a variety of horseshoe bat species with widely overlapping species ranges. Nevertheless, the viral population is largely spatially structured according to provinces in the south and southeast on one lineage, and provinces in the centre, east and northeast on another (Fig. 3). *This boundary appears to be rarely crossed.*


Even estimating the ancestry/phylogeny of it is extremely difficult:



> The difficulty in inferring reliable evolutionary histories for coronaviruses is that their high recombination rate violates the assumption of standard phylogenetic approaches because different parts of the genome have different histories.


One very obvious conclusion is we lack either the motivation or means to thoroughly surveil enough to effectively prevent these spill over events ( = potential pandemic). Given international tensions the last 12+ years I'm not sure we can expect the type of collaboration they recommend below:



> The existing diversity and dynamic process of recombination amongst lineages in the bat reservoir demonstrate how difficult it will be to identify viruses with potential to cause major human outbreaks before they emerge. *This underscores the need for a global network of real-time human disease surveillance systems*, such as that which identified the unusual cluster of pneumonia in Wuhan in December 2019, with the capacity to rapidly deploy genomic tools and functional studies for pathogen identification and characterization.


----------



## Vanilla

Omicron has changed the entire dynamic of this deal. Here’s to hoping we are in the “moving on” phase of this pandemic.

It’s January 31st, isn’t it time for an expo thread? 🤣


----------



## DallanC

Vanilla said:


> Omicron has changed the entire dynamic of this deal.


It really has... in other countries. They are over it... dropping all mandates and going full open everything. Its odd we're still in lock down mentality.

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> It really has... in other countries. They are over it... dropping all mandates and going full open everything. Its odd we're still in lock down mentality.
> 
> -DallanC



Yep, places like Britain where they have had their Omicron wave and are now doing better. Give us a few weeks and we will be similar, numbers wise. Just hope you don't need an ICU right now. 

That said, I'm not really seeing a whole lot of "lockdown" here in Utah right now. The legislature has put the kabosh on any attempted mandates last month and now they are probably largely moot.  .


----------



## backcountry

Definitely looks like we are on the downside of the peak in Utah. Hopefully the numbers continue trending downwards.

I will say I am grateful we have rapid testing now, even if they are imperfect. It ran through my wife's workplace and it made a huge difference for her to be able to test so easily.


----------



## High Desert Elk

DallanC said:


> It really has... in other countries. They are over it... dropping all mandates and going full open everything. Its odd we're still in lock down mentality.
> 
> -DallanC


I find it odd at how many people look for constant "guidance" from public servants that don't know more than anyone else.


----------



## Gordon

> Its odd we're still in lock down mentality


What's this lock down you speak of??
There were a few months I couldn't see a movie at my local theater and my favorite restaurant was to-go only, but since then??
I can see a movie or eat in a restaurant. I have flown across the country more than once. I have attended concerts, NCAA sporting events, and professional sporting events.
I have fished in 3 states and hunted in 2. I had a kid graduate from high school and a kid graduate from college and I attended both events in person. 
My family has had weddings, funerals, child births. Life goes on.
Serious question-not looking to fight or argue-what have you wanted to do the last 2 years that you couldn't do? Not picking on you Dallan that question is for everyone.


----------



## DallanC

Gordon said:


> What's this lock down you speak of??


Sorry, I wasn't clear... I meant more as a country than specifically Utah. NY and other liberal places have "soft lockdowns" back in place. And people on the left still calling for more.



> Serious question-not looking to fight or argue-what have you wanted to do the last 2 years that you couldn't do? Not picking on you Dallan that question is for everyone.


Well I wanted to go get away from everyone in the sand dunes, but they closed that down. I wanted to go sit in a boat away from everyone else at Deer Creek but they had that county lockdown where people from outside the county were given tickets if you visited, even though it was a State Park.

Sure these were in the beginning of Covid, but still... it was annoying and IMO, the start of the politicalizing of the issue here in Utah. Also we had various dining restrictions, theatre restrictions etc etc.

-DallanC


----------



## High Desert Elk

DallanC said:


> Sorry, I wasn't clear... I meant more as a country than specifically Utah. NY and other liberal places have "soft lockdowns" back in place. And people on the left still calling for more.
> -DallanC


This. It's been two years now and a fellow "Four Corners state" still has the mask requirement in place. The signs are still up, but nobody is enforcing them. If people want to wear, they do and if they don't, they don't.

Schools are still up and down, side to side, forward and backward on in person vs remote. Some schools push back, while others will send a kid home for sneezing or clearing their throat.

Indeed, it is in the states governed by blue politics...


----------



## Vanilla

DallanC said:


> It really has... in other countries. They are over it... dropping all mandates and going full open everything. Its odd we're still in lock down mentality.
> 
> -DallanC


When you say “we,” who are you referring to? I know we’ve had places in the United States that have been more strict than what I’ve experienced, but outside of the very beginning when nobody really knew what to do, when has Utah had a “lock down mentality?”

*edit- should have read on. I’m really not concerned about other states as I’m not a constituent and don’t have a vote on what happens there. I can vote by not going there if I don’t like it. I’ve chosen that with stupid California. I’ll be okay if I never go there again. 

And backcountry, I’m not sure about anything with the numbers. I don’t trust them at all. I’m guessing very few sick people are getting tested at sites that count the numbers anymore. Heck, the Governor even told them not to go get tested. The numbers are meaningless anymore, at least when it comes to straight case counts. There are numbers that matter a lot. Still way too many people dying. That number still matters. At least to me it does.


----------



## ridgetop

Vanilla said:


> When you say “we,” who are you referring to? I know we’ve had places in the United States that have been more strict than what I’ve experienced, but outside of the very beginning when nobody really knew what to do, when has Utah had a “lock down mentality?”
> 
> And backcountry, I’m not sure about anything with the numbers. I don’t trust them at all. I’m guessing very few sick people are getting tested at sites that count the numbers anymore. Heck, the Governor even told them not to go get tested. The numbers are meaningless anymore, at least when it comes to straight case counts. There are numbers that matter a lot. Still way too many people dying. That number still matters. At least to me it does.


The county health department personally called me wife today and told her that our son has tested positive and was wondering how he's feeling. They also told my wife that we should start wearing masks for the rest of the week and to keep him out of school until Friday. If she or I start feeling sick, don't bother getting tested. Just assume we have it and stay away from people. They definitely are starting to relax on the quarantine status.


----------



## Ray

my kids school told them to take 5 days off when they tested positive, that was the extent of it


----------



## Catherder

Vanilla said:


> And backcountry, I’m not sure about anything with the numbers. I don’t trust them at all. I’m guessing very few sick people are getting tested at sites that count the numbers anymore. Heck, the Governor even told them not to go get tested. The numbers are meaningless anymore, at least when it comes to straight case counts. There are numbers that matter a lot. Still way too many people dying. That number still matters. At least to me it does.


While the numbers themselves are certainly not perfect representations of actual case counts, they do accurately represent trends. And the current Utah graph is pretty encouraging that we are coming down in numbers in a pattern seen almost everywhere else on earth with omicron. Hospitalizations are much more accurate numerically and they too are plateauing now, hopefully to start falling. Hospitalization #'s will lag and not be as neat of a curve though as some sick people will linger for days to weeks before recovering or passing away. 

And yes, I agree with you guys that California is stupid. Pro vax, pro medicine me thinks Cali is stupid. That says something.  🤷‍♂️


----------



## High Desert Elk

Vanilla said:


> I’m really not concerned about other states as I’m not a constituent and don’t have a vote on what happens there.


That's a pretty narrow-minded viewpoint. Don't affect me, so I don't care?

Romney has a direct impact on my life because he sits on the US Senate and not the state legislature. You should care about heinrich and lujan because they do in fact have a direct impact on your life as they both sit on the US Senate as well and not the NM state legislature.

I'm not a constituent to UT, but I care about what public policies are put into place because I frequent there. I get to, because I'm an American citizen. 

That is what *United *States of America means...


----------



## Jedidiah

Not sure who you would lock down now anyway, it's clear that even the vaxxmaxed are now spreading the virus at least as much as unvaccinated if not more. Are you going to tell good boy Johnny Jab that his compliance was useless and he can't go to coffee shops and Alanis concerts anymore? The numbers below are the reality of the situation and all you have to do to confirm it is look at the total case numbers in the world today. The percentage of boosted in the hospital is double what it was at the first of the month and already over-represented and continues to increase daily. In the vaccine-eligible population the vaccinated are 85% of the cases.


----------



## backcountry

Vanilla,

The testing is definitely an imperfect representation given they told us not to unless severe. I agree with Catherder about it's representation of the trend though. We see to be on the downside of the curve for number of infections. Sadly it's still too many (as high as last year's winter peak) and the hospitals will still be operationally full for a while. We are still intentionally isolating for another little bit for that reason.

Jedidiah,

Intentionally using an outlier like Alberta to represent the general trends of Omicron based on vaccination status is cherry picking and fallacious. Yes, they have something unfortunate going on there that I have yet to see explained. But we know it's not representative of the general trends. We know vaccination reduces overall risk of infection (often by 50% or more) and severe outcomes. We know what selection bias looks like (ex: more vaxxed people spread the disease) and how it can distort reality.
*___*

Sadly we've surpassed 900k deaths and the last I heard we still have to figure out a ton of excess deaths. They won't all be Covid by any means, given how people have avoided regular checkups, critical medical appointments have been cancelled, etc. But we can reasonably deduce from evidence that the number is higher than we m know for Covid.

Yet, we are lucky to have vaccines and treatments that seem to have still proven effective for this last VOC. Moderna was officially approved yesterday and unexpected talk had emerged that companies will be applying for EUA status for those under 5. Hopefully we can keep improving our odds & hopefully the virus will continue to mutate in a way that causes less severe outcomes.

My horizon line is having to explain to my daughter the mural in town with masks on people because we are so far past this thing that she doesn't understand the context.


----------



## Jedidiah

Right and in the UK where every vaccine-eligible age group has been showing at least a double case rate among vaccinated and the vaccinated have been above 80% of the cases for 5 months now? They just changed their data to consider only 3-dosers as vaccinated and they're still at almost double the case rate. Let's see, that's the equivalent of a study group of almost 15 million people...what's the appropriate number of subjects for you to be convinced they aren't "outliers"? 100 million?


----------



## backcountry

Care to back up your claim about changing definitions? Plus the data that shows the 5 month trend you described.

They have not changed the definition of fully vaccinated policy wise (yet?).









Approved COVID-19 vaccines and countries and territories with approved proof of vaccination


Approved vaccines and list of countries and territories with approved COVID-19 proof of vaccination for travel to England.




www.gov.uk




.


----------



## Jedidiah

Keep in mind that we're only talking 18+ here because they didn't approve the vaccines for 17 and under until November-ish. Look at the last screenshot, that's about when the UK had their case rate flip. Just in 70 to 79 year olds, only 794 cases in unvaccinated and THIRTY THOUSAND among vaccinated.


----------



## Jedidiah

Congrats to Moderna on their FDA approval, good job finally getting one. Moderna started in 2010 based on technology that had been shelved for 20 years due to confirmed long term effects on animal subjects. Their first 7 years of data went unreported and is still mostly obscured. In 2020 they were given 443 million dollars to make a vaccine and 8 months later EUA was granted and a year after that billions of people are walking around with it in their veins. So you've got a technology in you from a company that hasn't been around even as long as the average approval time for a vaccine, with 7 of their 10 years of data still secret, and that vaccine being literally the only product they sell and every other vaccine they've made still in the approval process or already denied. No big deal probably...until you look up the history of Thalidomide.


----------



## backcountry

Thank you. Now, given your commitment to your approach and general hypothesis the last month:

Can you look at the data and draw any logical, biologically justified conclusions regarding what we know medically about: vaccination rates there, how people behave, how the vaccine still reduces severe outcomes in those age groups, etc?

Can you explain to me based upon the VE data the UK Health Security Agency has provided why they changed the dataset in their table to those with a third dose?

Can you highlight the limitations of the data as presented by the UK Health Security Agency?

Can you define outlier as a statistical principle?

If so, can you then situate the two regions you've cherry picked, commonly done for their unique outcomes, within the broader context of vaccine related outcomes? 

Will you be transparent about whom you are getting this general commentary from?


----------



## Jedidiah

I'm not going to get into definitions and critique of commentary from stupid radio show hosts, I don't listen to it anyway. Literally have never heard any of it. Look at those ridiculous numbers, that's all you need.

I'm just excited for what this means for my ability to draw a really nice elk tag in a couple years here.


----------



## backcountry

Just to be clear, you think the numbers from the UK and Alberta reports are "all you need" to know about the relationship between vaccine status and Covid related outcomes (infection to death)?


----------



## backcountry

And for anyone interested in the history of mRNA, as well as the other relevant biotech components, vaccine history from a reliable source that doesn't require decoder rings and tinfoil hats:









The tangled history of mRNA vaccines


Hundreds of scientists had worked on mRNA vaccines for decades before the coronavirus pandemic brought a breakthrough.




www.nature.com


----------



## Jedidiah

What I said about Moderna isn't a conspiracy theory. You can see the timelines on the Wikipedia page for them:









Moderna - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Here's one article talking about the several years of criticism they received for hiding their data from 2010 to 2017 (there's plenty more if you use a real search engine like DuckDuckGo or Yandex instead of Google's propaganda machine):









Will Moderna be the Next Theranos?


December 12, 2021- by Steven E. Greer, MD Elizabeth Holmes, the former CEO of defunct medical device company Theranos, is on trial now for perpetrating massive investor fraud schemes. She fooled the world because she checked off the right PC boxes. The media loved her. She was the face of “Girl...




greerjournal.substack.com





Sorry, I said 443 when it was 483 million dollars. Also, it looks like average vaccine development time is 5 to 10 years. So you were injecting yourself about 7 years too early instead of 14, sorry about that. Take a look at the overall Thalidomide timelines, and the timelines of the killed-virus formaldehyde vaccines and what they did to the children they were used on.

Here's an idea, can you find me Utah or any other state's case and hospitalization data for the last month and a half? Find data in the same timeframe from somewhere with a similar rate of vaccine uptake to Canada, the UK, and Israel that directly contradicts their data.


----------



## backcountry

Want to go ahead and state your conclusion openly instead of letting it dangle out there for most of us to logically deduce? 

Beyond that I could care less about your posting random tidbits of information out of full context. 

The entire timeline and empty hypothesis about the mRNA history cracks me up given the fact, which you've stated, it had a massive influx of investment, built on decades of transformative discoveries (especially nanotech the last 8 years) and wait for it...an EUA process designed to expedite the concept to distribution pipeline during an actual pandemic. Shock, the long advocated conservative goal of reducing red tape worked!

So please, just state your contrarian hypotheses plainly. Then support it with the appropriate scientific data in a meaningful way. This coy beating around the bush is silly.


----------



## backcountry

I'm still guessing you don't understand the definition of an outlier given the "contradict their data" statement. 

Their is a download data hyperlink on the primary splash page of the Utah surveillance page. Their IBIS database can also be queried for analysis. Do the work yourself if you want to see the contrast. But your post does beg the question, why don't you trust the general conclusions the state of Utah releases M-Th?


----------



## High Desert Elk

The Effectiveness of "Lockdowns"

The short of it is "_*While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."*_

You can read the entire literature review if you want, but reading the Abstract and Concluding Observations (pgs. 40-43) is sufficient.


----------



## Jedidiah

I wouldn't say I have a strong conclusion, just that the data looks completely bonkers. I don't see that download data link, I'd be interested to see if they have the cases and hospitalizations split out by vaccination status, can you show me where the download link is exactly?

The numbers of cases in the US alone show that the vaccine effectiveness is clearly less than expected. You see a spike that is 3X as big as any spike in the past in a world where half the planet is vaccinated and your conclusion is what, that the unvaccinated just suddenly got more vulnerable? It would have to have to be something like a 10X vulnerability increase in order to true up with what's happening.


----------



## backcountry

Can you think of a biologically or epidemiological explanation for the recent spike in caseloads, even amongst the vaccinated?


----------



## Jedidiah

"***Rates since February 1, 2021 are a cumulative incidence rate per million person-days and are calculated as the “sum of people observed with COVID-19 outcome each day” divided by the “sum of people vaccinated or unvaccinated each day” times 1,000,000. "

All of the rate data is based on data for all time, and if you look at the data from countries that show each week for the last month and a half you can see their numbers flipped at the end of December. Also if you want to disprove the hypothesis that the vaccine is useless to prevent infection (and probably hospitalization now) after about 9 months, you have to be able to sort out the people who have only been fully vaccinated for the last few months: children under 18. The data from Canada, UK and Israel isn't an outlier (which by the way feels insane to have to argue, three super populated first world countries are outliers? In what world?) they just have more timely and granular data.

I'm not going to pin myself to one of your preconceived notions of a "conspiracy theory" that you have an argument all prepared for just waiting for anyone that questions the vaccine. I don't even listen to that crap, I have no concept of what those idiots are talking about.


----------



## backcountry

The conspiracy theory jab was at the cuckoo way in which you built your narrative history about Moderna. Its interesting that you won't admit where you get your approach from as it directly aligns with the arguments people like Berenson or the likes are using; there is amazing symmetry in the anecdotes you (and millions of others) use. And its interesting that when it comes to putting a biologically or epidemiologically justified hypothesis, for the trends your describe, into writing you refuse to do so.

I don't hold any certainty about what you actually believe but your structure of argument exposes an unscientific brand of skepticism. You constantly ignore the limitations stated by the agencies, "_comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection"_ to vaguely hint at that the vaccines are "useless to prevent infection". You seem to believe your conclusion is convincing compared to the VE data the UK actually provides (page 4-15) when its not.

And you really need to look up the definition of an outlier as it relates to statistical data. The definition isn't limited by the factors you describe.

You are the one trying to state the hypothesis that the "vaccine is useless to prevent infection". The burden of proof is on you and its an immense burden given the consensus says the opposite. I don't have to disprove anything given I'm aligned with the expert consensus.

Everyday Utah updates news agencies on a 28 day running tally regarding vaccinated vs unvaccinated. The current 28 day figures are actually an improvement over the statistics from the last 12 month totals.









Utah adds over 2.8k new COVID cases, 20 deaths in latest report


SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) – The Utah Department of Health is reporting 2,845 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, February 1, and 20 new deaths since yesterday. Here is a breakdown of the new cases: Ca…




www.abc4.com





I'm sure having to provide a lot of data and information for an individual so certain "the vaccines are useless to prevent infection".


----------



## Jedidiah

lol....the same report that says the case numbers shouldn't be used to judge vaccine effectiveness literally has a graph showing that 2-dose vaccine effectiveness for symptomatic disease caused by Omicron drops to less than 0% after 25 weeks and only 25-40% after 14 weeks with a booster. LESS than 0%, think about that for a minute. Granted that's just AZ, but Moderna and Pfizer are only like 10-15% at best after 6 months. Where do you think it is now? What do you think the explanation was for these graphs having to have a negative effectiveness range on them?

No reason to worry I'm sure, probably just something in the water in the UK causing these results.


----------



## backcountry

Once again, your are being skeptical in an unscientific manner. Its getting tedious. You are basically performing something similar to the "just asking questions" fallacy. You don't have the evidence or ability to back up your claim so you just point to anecdotes that have the appearance of supporting your unscientific conclusion.


----------



## Jedidiah

Hmm, yes, I see the point. An entire European country's cumulative vaccine surveillance data plainly and straightforwardly stating that two-dose vaccine effectiveness against Omicron infection is 15% at best and possibly worse than 0% is....anecdotal. 2 million+ recent cases surveilled...anecdotal. Ever think maybe the reason you think there's less vaccinated cases reported in Utah is that they're telling people not to get tested? That we've had a month long shortage of tests? Go get tested some time, some places have a mile long line of cars. 10 to 1 of the people I know that have or had COVID last month were vaccinated, and half of those never got tested. I'm not saying it will definitely happen, but if all those folks you know that got COVID in January get it again in a few months, that's when you're gonna know there's really a problem.

Regardless of whatever might happen it's pretty clear you'll never get out ahead of COVID with the shots we have, so trying to force vaccines is definitely pointless and possibly incredibly dangerous. It's time to pause for a minute.


----------



## backcountry

No, you've shifted the focus. You were talking about three nations over a portion of Omicron. That's called cherry picking as you are seeking data to support your claim. And they are outliers in their outcomes.

And I didn't deny the waning immunity of the vaccines. That's established, though much of the narrative relies on antibody counts and we are seeing in the reporting across the world how the vaccines are still providing protection against hospitalization and deaths. That's a reflection of how complex an immune system can be with a vaccine, ie consistent dose to train the body.

Can you see the flaw in your logic regarding testing biases in Utah data?

Can you explain with real biological and epidemiological evidence how effectiveness would be "possibly worse than 0%"?


----------



## Jedidiah

I don't have to explain it, doctors in the UK have said it was. You have to trust the science, dude.


----------



## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> I don't have to explain it, doctors in the UK have said it was. You have to trust the science, dude.


The doctors in the UK stated the VE is "possibly worse than zero"? Can you show me that quote?


----------



## Jedidiah

Nah man, you're right. I'm sure that downward curve at 25 weeks just leveled right out. Sorry, make sure you schedule that fourth dose. Don't forget to tell your friends the same.


----------



## backcountry

So you are admitting you can't provide evidence to your claim by shifting the conversation again. Okie Dokie.

Is it because they actually said "_After 2 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant starts at 45 to 50% then drops to almost no effect from 20 weeks after the second dose_"? Did I miss the statement about negative effectiveness there?

Just to summarize your "contributions" so far:


You intentionally use data out of context and draw conclusions when those reports warn against exactly that
You make explicit allegations without any supporting evidence 
You post sources who write things like _"So, from its inception, Moderna has always been a shady quasi-military company funded by Bill Gates and other arch villains straight out of comic books." (_Anybody still playing along that's one shot for a mention of scary Bill Gates.)
You cherry pick nations that had 2-4 weeks of data you believe aligns with their hypothesis
When asked to state ideas and medical justifications in your own words you shift the conversation
You don't really hold any real conclusions but regularly use fallacious strategies like "just asking questions" to frame the conversation in a manner that just happens to implicate the vaccines don't perform like the consensus says
You don't hold conspiracy theories but you weave a narrative about Moderna that just looks like one and ends with an unscientific phrase like "billions of people are walking around with it in their veins" (hint: vaccines don't stay in the body long and all the mRNA ones are an intramuscular shot)
You ignore data and change the subject when it doesn't fit your narrative, like the fact Utah does a 28 day running average analysis with vaccine status
You don't listen to any of the cuckoo "experts" but you just randomly use the exact same anecdotes
You make allegations about expert statements that fully contradict their actual comments
Am I missing anything? I'd hate to leave out anything important that you may have contributed.


----------



## backcountry

I'll admit, I fully underestimated the entertainment value of the Greer Journal link. That "article" and some of the hyperlinks are better than a night out at the movies. I can't wait to see how the lawsuit filed at the ICC goes. #FireFauci #NurembergCode #TheGreatReset

Edit: Oh, the hits keep coming. I googled (those corporate fascists) "Dr Steven Greer".

From his wiki page:



> ... in 1998 retired as a physician in favor of his ufology activities ...
> 
> ... Greer claims that a covert, transnational, mostly corporate group that has no oversight from any governments, and which possesses anti-gravity technology and craft, has had a plan since the 1950s to hoax an alien attack ...


From his Youtube Channel



> Dr. Steven Greer is one of the world’s foremost authorities on the subject of extraterrestrial intelligence and initiating peaceful contact with interstellar civilizations.


----------



## Vanilla

High Desert Elk said:


> That's a pretty narrow-minded viewpoint. Don't affect me, so I don't care?
> 
> Romney has a direct impact on my life because he sits on the US Senate and not the state legislature. You should care about heinrich and lujan because they do in fact have a direct impact on your life as they both sit on the US Senate as well and not the NM state legislature.
> 
> I'm not a constituent to UT, but I care about what public policies are put into place because I frequent there. I get to, because I'm an American citizen.
> 
> That is what *United *States of America means...


You call it narrow-minded. I call it minding my own business. I’ll make you a deal: When Mitt Romney proposes rules to restrict what you do regarding covid in New Mexico, I will be the first to step up and contact him to get your back. That’s a promise I will keep for you.

I don’t live in NYC and don’t plan on visiting any time soon. Those people voted folks in that are making their lives hell on this, and they can approve of the measures or hold them accountable. I can’t. (And shouldn’t) Imposing my will on those people is no better than California imposing its will on us here in Utah. And I for dang sure don’t like that…at all. So you can call me narrow-minded, I’ll call myself consistent.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Vanilla said:


> You call it narrow-minded. I call it minding my own business. I’ll make you a deal: When Mitt Romney proposes rules to restrict what you do regarding covid in New Mexico, I will be the first to step up and contact him to get your back. That’s a promise I will keep for you.
> 
> I don’t live in NYC and don’t plan on visiting any time soon. Those people voted folks in that are making their lives hell on this, and they can approve of the measures or hold them accountable. I can’t. (And shouldn’t) Imposing my will on those people is no better than California imposing its will on us here in Utah. And I for dang sure don’t like that…at all. So you can call me narrow-minded, I’ll call myself consistent.


Vanilla, you know better than that. US Senators and Reps make policy for everyone, not the state they're from. You are clearly confusing the role of the state legislature with that of the role of the US legislature.

Going through life with blinders on "minding [your] own business" is what has gotten this country into trouble in the first place...


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Just a random thought, related to covid, but not to the current discourse.

Has anyone given thought as to the overall effects of covid beyond personal health, and thought about "What's next?" or "Where do we go to from here?"

To the best of my knowledge Covid has:

Furthered the political divide within the US.
Caused, or exacerbated, social upheaval.
Caused economic disruption and exposed supply chain weaknesses.
Has led to bad economic policy at the federal level, the repercussions of which are only just beginning.
In part, played a role in a mass migration of people within CONUS.

I'm sure i can think of more things covid has done thus far, and sadly, it's not quite done yet.

Looking forward, i have to wonder what's next? I don't think things will ever be the same again. 

At a local level, things have remained normal, up to a point. However, the effects of deep political division, inflation, and the effects of mass moments of people leaving the west coast will be felt for some time.

On a national level? Most defiantly won't be the same ever again. Covid was the first domino. The next couple years are going to be..... interesting.


----------



## DallanC

There's more and more evidence of mental issues from the kids that were sheltered at home with online learning. We wont know the extent of this for some time.









COVID Is Driving a Children’s Mental Health Emergency


Deaths of parents and other terrible experiences have hurt hundreds of thousands, so new initiatives are trying to help families in pain




www.scientificamerican.com





-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

Here is a non partisan discussion about what parameters we should use to consider action on future waves of rona. I found it balanced and, yes, hopeful.









The COVID-19 Metrics Policymakers Should Be Watching After Omicron


The COVID-19 pandemic has brought up tons of data questions — what information should we be collecting, what can it tell us (and what does it fail to tell us) …




fivethirtyeight.com





As for personal changes related to the pandemic, like I said before, it hasn't altered my personal routine much and I and my family have largely lived our life as we would have, but there have been effects. It has had an effect on my political opinions and support. It also has forced me to become more patient with those I like but don't agree with.  (a work in progress) Nationally, I don't know if we will have a full idea of the cumulative effects for years. A study of previous effects of pandemics through history definitely indicate a ripple effect for decades.

One final comment on the "Alberta statistics". Alanis IS pretty popular up there although I think she is from Ontario. Review of them does show that the authorities put children, most of which are ineligible for vaccinations in the unvaccinated group. The vaccinated percentage there is 78%. In reviewing the posted numbers, it looks like about half of the 22% are children. If each of the patient pools were equal in population, then the raw numbers would be alarming, but they are not! The vaccinated pool is way higher so we would expect to see a higher absolute number since we know breakthrough cases do happen with omicron in particular. The fact the numbers aren't waaay higher actually supports vaccination. What is most important though is bad outcomes like hospitalization. What it shows there is that 30% of the hospitalized patients are unvaccinated. Since very few children get hospitalized, and about half of the 22% unvaccinated are children, that means that 11% of the population is causing 30% of the hospitalizations. I don't think the Canadians are going to change their guidance on vaccinations anytime soon. 

As for the British "wave", the UK is also well vaccinated and it is NOT the realm of Facebook and conspiracy theory that Omicron causes more breakthrough infections, so this really isn't news. however, the UK weathered it fairly well and is now "opening things up" or lifting restrictions, which I view as perfectly appropriate.


----------



## Vanilla

High Desert Elk said:


> Vanilla, you know better than that. US Senators and Reps make policy for everyone, not the state they're from. You are clearly confusing the role of the state legislature with that of the role of the US legislature.
> 
> Going through life with blinders on "minding [your] own business" is what has gotten this country into trouble in the first place...


With all due respect, I don’t think I’m the one confusing these things. Whatever crazy restrictions you have in your state are not due to the feds. What California, Oregon or NYC has done is due to their local politicians, just like yours. Not the feds you keep bringing up for some unknown reason. Quit bringing up something that is so completely irrelevant to what I’m saying.

You’re doing your best to conflate this issue to pick a bone with me, but to be quite frank, it simply won’t work. To borrow Johnnycake’s famous line: I can explain it to you, but I can’t understand it for you.


----------



## backcountry

DallanC said:


> There's more and more evidence of mental issues from the kids that were sheltered at home with online learning. We wont know the extent of this for some time.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID Is Driving a Children’s Mental Health Emergency
> 
> 
> Deaths of parents and other terrible experiences have hurt hundreds of thousands, so new initiatives are trying to help families in pain
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.scientificamerican.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -DallanC


More people should read that and I hope we can better resource our nation for mental health care for youth.

I will say, their is a part of the issue that is often ignored: the 140,000 children who prematurely lost a parent or caretaker to Covid. That's a unique type of trauma that is extremely durable. I think it's important to expose the full range of pandemic impacts from school closures, economic hardship, increased exposure to domestic abuse and premature death.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Lone_Hunter said:


> Just a random thought, related to covid, but not to the current discourse.
> 
> Has anyone given thought as to the overall effects of covid beyond personal health, and thought about "What's next?" or "Where do we go to from here?"
> 
> To the best of my knowledge Covid has:
> 
> Furthered the political divide within the US.
> Caused, or exacerbated, social upheaval.
> Caused economic disruption and exposed supply chain weaknesses.
> Has led to bad economic policy at the federal level, the repercussions of which are only just beginning.
> In part, played a role in a mass migration of people within CONUS.
> 
> I'm sure i can think of more things covid has done thus far, and sadly, it's not quite done yet.
> 
> Looking forward, i have to wonder what's next? I don't think things will ever be the same again.
> 
> At a local level, things have remained normal, up to a point. However, the effects of deep political division, inflation, and the effects of mass moments of people leaving the west coast will be felt for some time.
> 
> On a national level? Most defiantly won't be the same ever again. Covid was the first domino. The next couple years are going to be..... interesting.


I think what this has done is bring to light long forgotten knowledge of what took place 103 years ago on what worked and what didn't work. I hope enough people have caught on and will put more of a challenge to any politician trying to use a world-wide illness as a political weapon against an opponent during an election year.

Unfortunately, nothing ever gets to go back to being the same. Wish it could for several reasons. I also think there is a little more disdain toward political shenanigan's that elected servants tend to engage in. This upcoming midterm election may very well portray that.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded




----------



## Jedidiah

The conclusions on effectiveness against infection are plainly stated in multiple iterations of the UK report (official data running for months.)
Almost a dozen screenshots from actual reports in Alberta, Ontario, UK, and Israel.
One badly chosen article and the facts of my Moderna statement remain. How about Nature? You can't complain about Nature, it's one of the most accepted sources of scientific and medical data in the country. There's another article from Stat which passes the credibility test on MediaBiasFactCheck.com and also the Wikipedia data. Here are illustrations of the facts about Moderna's background from Wikipedia, Nature and Statnews:

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moderna:
Founding of Moderna:









Article from Nature in 2016 regarding their lack of data transparency:





Research not fit to print - Nature Biotechnology


Some biotech companies now eschew traditional publication in peer-reviewed journals. Does it matter?




www.nature.com














Statements on Moderna and mRNA tech from Stat in 2016:








Ego, ambition, and turmoil: Inside one of biotech's most secretive startups


Moderna's caustic work environment has driven away top talent. There are signs the secretive startup has hit roadblocks with its most ambitious projects.




www.statnews.com














"In their veins" refers to the whole vaccine, not just the mRNA. The lipid nanoparticle delivery system was considered to be a main problem for years because of the cumulative risks of multiple doses over a span of time.

And:










Supposedly Moderna fixed the lipid nanoparticle problem just in 2019 but if you're not concerned with their track record so far you're probably good with injecting yourself with whatever they make in any kind of time frame. Which brings us around to the statement that they have only one commercial product and only one FDA approval ever, from Wikipedia:











The unadjusted vaccinated infection rates in the UK went above unvaccinated in some age groups in October. They have been firmly double since November in the age groups that have been eligible for the vaccines since the first part of 2021. The case rates flipped six weeks ago, not "2-4". In Israel in particular the case rates for both 2nd and 3rd dose vaccinated are *astoundingly terrible*:









Recoveries:












Idea: Vaccination does nothing to prevent infection. Data: every goddamned table I've posted and the reports they're in.
Conclusion: anyone vaccinated more than 6 months ago has no or very little protection from infection. Israel data shows the 3rd dose vaccinated are possibly even MORE susceptible.
See articles and facts on Moderna above.
Much of Utah's data is cumulative and doesn't sort out vaccination outcomes by age group. It is useless to the idea of vaccines preventing infection after 6+ months. Canada, UK and Israel are better data sources because a larger portion of the population is vaccinated and they report on more variables.
It's not random, and it's not anecdotal, it's literally comprehensive official government reports from first world countries with top notch medical systems.
Name some contradictions. Do you not see the dot in this graph and is it not below the 0 line?










And that's for people at about 6 months of 2-dose coverage. What do you think it's at for the majority of people who are approaching 10 months now? Think it might match levels in the Israel graphs?


----------



## Jedidiah

High Desert Elk said:


> I think what this has done is bring to light long forgotten knowledge of what took place 103 years ago on what worked and what didn't work. I hope enough people have caught on and will put more of a challenge to any politician trying to use a world-wide illness as a political weapon against an opponent during an election year.
> 
> Unfortunately, nothing ever gets to go back to being the same. Wish it could for several reasons. I also think there is a little more disdain toward political shenanigan's that elected servants tend to engage in. This upcoming midterm election may very well portray that.


As of a couple days ago the guy we're calling president is officially disliked more than Trump. He's also killed more people with COVID.


----------



## High Desert Elk

Vanilla said:


> With all due respect, I don’t think I’m the one confusing these things. Whatever crazy restrictions you have in your state are not due to the feds. What California, Oregon or NYC has done is due to their local politicians, just like yours. Not the feds you keep bringing up for some unknown reason. Quit bringing up something that is so completely irrelevant to what I’m saying.
> 
> You’re doing your best to conflate this issue to pick a bone with me, but to be quite frank, it simply won’t work. To borrow Johnnycake’s famous line: I can explain it to you, but I can’t understand it for you.


You stated you don't care what happens in other states. I said what other states do can have a direct impact on others. And yes, idiotic restrictions in my state have a direct link to the feds. Some restrictions in your state have a direct link to the feds as well.

If you don't think the 4 liberals from my state won't vote to impose national legislation on your state relative to a covid response, I don't know what to tell you. 

I'm not conflating anything and I'm not the one who picked the bone, 'nilla...


----------



## backcountry

Jedidiah said:


> The conclusions on effectiveness against infection are plainly stated in multiple iterations of the UK report (official data running for months.)
> 
> 
> Almost a dozen screenshots from actual reports in Alberta, Ontario, UK, and Israel.


Take a science and statistics class and get back to me about the importance of data set limitations. And you are being obtuse and intellectually dishonest by trying to use their non VE data (like the tabulated data from the cherry picked countries) in the context they explicitly warn against. 

You are ignoring their actual statements in relation to your statement about UK VE data. Have you ever looked up why scientist don't report claims about "negative VE" the way you so flippantly do? It might help if you developed some scientific literacy on the subject before you go posting such allegations without any expertise to do so.



Jedidiah said:


> One badly chosen article and the facts of my Moderna statement remain. How about Nature? You can't complain about Nature, it's one of the most accepted sources of scientific and medical data in the country. There's another article from Stat which passes the credibility test on MediaBiasFactCheck.com and also the Wikipedia data. Here are illustrations of the facts about Moderna's background from Wikipedia, Nature and Statnews


Not badly chosen, its emblematic of how you source ideas and data. Its a form of motivated reasoning and its plain as day.

Where did I broadly deny elements of Moderna's history? Nowhere, as I justly ridiculed your outlandish conspiracy theory framings from that information. You literally cited a guy saying an ICC case is moving forward against Bill Gates and the like. I can't make this stuff up. Remember Nuremberg!




Jedidiah said:


> View attachment 151078


They are nowhere in line with your conspiratorial framing of their shielding of proprietary information. Scientist were rightfully skeptical _without seeing information_, as that's the framework of science. You do the opposite, you take existing information with a consensus amongst scientist and frame in unsupported ways. Its a mendacious and fallacious strategy.



Jedidiah said:


> View attachment 151079


So a 6 year old article describing the struggles of vaccines before than is an indictment on Moderna's nanotech particles? Am I getting your inference right? You do know we have ways to test that hypothesis? It may involve tens of thousands of people and has been published in NEJM. The results are publicly available despite rumors.



Jedidiah said:


> "In their veins" refers to the whole vaccine, not just the mRNA. The lipid nanoparticle delivery system was considered to be a main problem for years because of the cumulative risks of multiple doses over a span of time.
> 
> Supposedly Moderna fixed the lipid nanoparticle problem just in 2019 but if you're not concerned with their track record so far you're probably good with injecting yourself with whatever they make in any kind of time frame.


In your own words can you describe to me how the body clears out lipid nanoparticles (LNP), approximate residence time in the body and how that remotely justifies your fear mongering about "in their veins"? Can you show me peer reviewed articles that investigate the LNPs used in Moderna that support your fear mongering?



Jedidiah said:


> Idea: Vaccination does nothing to prevent infection. Data: every goddamned table I've posted and the reports they're in.
> Conclusion: anyone vaccinated more than 6 months ago has no or very little protection from infection. Israel data shows the 3rd dose vaccinated are possibly even MORE susceptible.


Refer back to my first point in this post. You continuously engage in pseudoscience, its impressive how persistent it is. The countries use real VE studies for a reason and the UK updates them on a regular basis. Your lack of imagination and scientific observation on how the data sets you use aren't suited for your analysis and conclusions is telling.



Jedidiah said:


> Much of Utah's data is cumulative and doesn't sort out vaccination outcomes by age group. It is useless to the idea of vaccines preventing infection after 6+ months. Canada, UK and Israel are better data sources because a larger portion of the population is vaccinated and they report on more variables.


You once ignore again the 28 day rolling average information that Utah provides to news agencies. You now shift the entire framing to 6+ months while even then you ignore the reality that we are still running inoculation campaigns for first time people. And the waning immunity of vaccination is well established, it just not used in your outlandish styling. Its not "useless" to look at the 28 day rolling average data, its just inconvenient to your unsubstantiated allegations.




Jedidiah said:


> Name some contradictions. Do you not see the dot in this graph and is it not below the 0 line?
> 
> View attachment 151084
> 
> And that's for people at about 6 months of 2-dose coverage. What do you think it's at for the majority of people who are approaching 10 months now? Think it might match levels in the Israel graphs?


I provided their exact quote, at the beginning of my last listed postm and they don't conclude what you do nor does it support your claim. Maybe they'll say the 2 dose regime after 6+ months in their next update (bi-monthly?) but I'm skeptical of that until the actual evidence is there.

I'm getting pretty close to just submitting to the accuracy of "Brandolini's Law" at this point. The only reasons I don't is because this BS rampantly pollutes the internet and the "illusory truth effect" is a real thing.



> *The amount of energy needed to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude larger than to produce it*


----------



## ridgetop

This is kind of like watching a never ending tennis match!


----------



## CPAjeff

ridgetop said:


> This is kind of like watching a never ending tennis match!


I couldn't agree more!!


Please remember to keep politics and political jabs out of the context (i.e. the person we call the president, the former jackwagon) . . . you get the idea.


----------



## 2full

Was thinking it's time for me to ignore this thread ?


----------



## MrShane

I think a couple of people need to go fishing or something and get away from a keyboard.


----------



## High Desert Elk

ridgetop said:


> This is kind of like watching a never ending tennis match!


Most threads are at some point...


----------



## bowgy

ridgetop said:


> This is kind of like watching a never ending tennis match!


Nahh, tennis is more interesting, it's more like watching pong on an old computer.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

ridgetop said:


> This is kind of like watching a never ending tennis match!


That's what arguing on the internet is. It doesn't stop until someone thinks they get the last word in, or Godwin's law is invoked.


----------



## 2full

bowgy said:


> Nahh, tennis is more interesting, it's more like watching pong on an old computer.


We had the Pong game when I was in high school. 
Wish I had kept it....worth a few bucks now.


----------



## Bax*

I own seven sleeping bags, 9 or 10 camp stoves, a handful of tents, and a spork.


----------



## CPAjeff

Bax* said:


> I own seven sleeping bags, 9 or 10 camp stoves, a handful of tents, and a spork.


A spork?!?! Man, I hate those things! Watching this thread reminds me of the following clip from The Office:


----------



## backcountry

Now y'all going to come in here and troll about sporks?


----------



## Jedidiah

I use a titanium spork almost exclusively when camping or eating fish cooked at the stream.









Buy Spork Titanium - Official Store


Unsurpassed durability for these iconic items. The legendary Spork and Straw Titanium are built for the toughest of challenges. Made for adventure. Made in Sweden.




lightmyfire.com


----------



## bowguyonly

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1488952215301951488
Not a zombie. Just one example.


----------



## Jedidiah

bowguyonly said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1488952215301951488
> Not a zombie. Just one example.


But why stop at one? Why not 130,000? Not even saying I believe in most of this but that's a loooooot of individual, normal people commenting on this post.




__ https://www.facebook.com/80221381134/posts/10158207967261135


----------



## Bax*

backcountry said:


> Now y'all going to come in here and troll about sporks?


you can’t knock the spork! We all know it’s like Cousin Lou and it ain’t quite right. But we love it and smile every time we eat with it from that little styrofoam container of mershed perterters from KFC.

I mean, it doesn’t really solve for anything but we like to think it does.


----------



## bowgy

Bax* said:


> you can’t knock the spork! We all know it’s like Cousin Lou and it ain’t quite right. But we love it and smile every time we eat with it from that little styrofoam container of* mershed perterters* from KFC.
> 
> I mean, it doesn’t really solve for anything but we like to think it does.


I always wondered what that stuff was called


----------



## DallanC

Gah... i've been craving KFC extra crispy for a couple days ... tried hard to get the wife to pick some up yesterday while she was out and about... Now I'm REALLY HUNGRY.

-DallanC


----------



## Bax*

DallanC said:


> Gah... i've been craving KFC extra crispy for a couple days ... tried hard to get the wife to pick some up yesterday while she was out and about... Now I'm REALLY HUNGRY.
> 
> -DallanC


So the next question is: Popeyes or KFC?

I was always a KFC loyalist and to this day love me a batch of fresh hotwings dipped in massive amounts of KFC hot sauce (not a buffalo sauce per se, kind of their own flavor of hot sauce). But Popeyes seems to have fresher chicken and I love their "spicy" option for chicken. Not to mention their red beans and rice side dish is pretty good, and I like their "cajun sparkle" stuff to sprinkle on top of my chicken (pretty sure it is pure MSG but thats a topic for another day).


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

DallanC said:


> Gah... i've been craving KFC extra crispy for a couple days ... tried hard to get the wife to pick some up yesterday while she was out and about... Now I'm REALLY HUNGRY.
> 
> -DallanC


KFC used to have Kentucky nuggets they were so good


----------



## DallanC

Bax* said:


> So the next question is: Popeyes or KFC?


I've tried Popeyes a couple times, its ok but not great. I'm not impressed enough to go out of my way to eat there.

A new chain I really like is Slim Chickens, they have really fresh and good chicken fingers.

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

Bax* said:


> So the next question is: Popeyes or KFC?


I like them both, but I've always loved me some Popeyes. 

The problem lately is the nearest Popeyes hasn't been as good as it used to be. They took some of the things I like off the menu and the chicken has been kind of dry and unpalatable the last couple of visits. Dispappointing.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

What do think about Chik-fil-A. Only been a couple times but the chicken sandwich seemed real fresh


----------



## Bax*

DallanC said:


> I've tried Popeyes a couple times, its ok but not great. I'm not impressed enough to go out of my way to eat there.
> 
> A new chain I really like is Slim Chickens, they have really fresh and good chicken fingers.
> 
> -DallanC


I havent heard of them. I'll have to check them out. SuperChix is pretty good though

Side note: my brother in law always orders chicken tenders when we go out to eat. We tease him relentlessly about getting his "chicken tendies"


----------



## Bax*

7mm Reloaded said:


> What do think about Chik-fil-A. Only been a couple times but the chicken sandwich seemed real fresh


My youngest LOVES Chick-fil-A. Thats all she wants to eat if we ask about going out to eat.

Funny how it used to be McDonalds for most kids... but it seems like chicken is king nowadays


----------



## ridgetop

I hate Popeyes. Way over priced for what you get. I've been to 3 different ones and it's been three strikes your out. I won't be going to any more.


----------



## backcountry

Chicken is definitely king which I think is causing some of the quality control issues. They have been struggling to source from their normal suppliers since the Great Chicken Sandwich Wars started in 2019(lots of insurgents entering the battle still). 

I prefer Popeyes better, and their Spicy Chicken sandwich still reigns king.

To me KFC is the middleway on everything. It's the La Quinta Inn of chicken. 

Chick-fil-A is it's own thing. It's the In-N-Out Burger of the South. Their MSG infused brine, along with their secret component, is phenomenal.

More importantly...Zaxby's sucks.


----------



## callofthewild2

but how are you all going to taste or smell this said chicken with this pandemic going around? just kidding please bring on more food talk on this thread. 30 love to whoever?


----------



## Catherder

Has anyone had Raising Canes? I have had a couple folks recommend them but haven't had a chance to try.


----------



## RandomElk16

Catherder said:


> Has anyone had Raising Canes? I have had a couple folks recommend them but haven't had a chance to try.


I loved it in Vegas. Been a few years. Always seemed like higher quality than it's KFC/Pop peers. 

I don't like Popeyes or KFC. Such low grade super grease chicken. I also have too much info into the working conditions at some locations lol. 

I like Chick Fil A. It's not gourmet by any means, but the consistency and quality is pretty obvious I think. In drive thru, I always go with nuggets. However - Nothing like a Friday Night football game where they sell the chicken sandwhiches at concessions. Yum.


----------



## Vanilla

A chicken and chicken sandwich discussion? No we are talking!!!! You've found a topic I am truly and expert with. 



Catherder said:


> Has anyone had Raising Canes? I have had a couple folks recommend them but haven't had a chance to try.


I always hate new chain restaurants that come in with a ton of hype, because they never meet the hype. So I will say this: Temper your expectations. These are chicken fingers we are talking about here, I think there is a ceiling on chicken fingers. That said, they are very good chicken fingers! They are pretty darn close to reaching that ceiling, in my (expert) opinion. My whole family likes Raising Canes, it's good, but it's just chicken fingers. So temper the expectation, realize you're going for chicken fingers, and then go and enjoy them. Their sauce is really good!


----------



## backcountry

Anybody had Hattie B's? I didn't know much about it by really liked it the one time I tried it. Granted I "may" have been innebriated walking the Vegas Strip during the off season. 

Whenever I go to the south it seems to be the small little local drive thrus that have the best chicken.


----------



## bowgy

I'm sitting here eating Zaxby's 4 finger plate as I am reading this.


----------



## backcountry




----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


>



Did you get food poisoning there? Definitely some strong emotions about Zaxbys. 

If so, I get it. I will probably never forgive the Beaver Arby's for 5 days of gastrointestinal misery while at a CE event in Vegas.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

For some reason almost everywhere in Vegas taste good maybe its the alcohol?😉


----------



## backcountry

Catherder said:


> Did you get food poisoning there? Definitely some strong emotions about Zaxbys.
> 
> If so, I get it. I will probably never forgive the Beaver Arby's for 5 days of gastrointestinal misery while at a CE event in Vegas.


No, just ho hum tendies and horrible service. And I wouldn't say a call for Bowgy to have his head shaven and marched through the streets with a chorus of "shame" implies strong emotions. 

I save strong emotions for the old restaurant in Gerlach, AK that poisoned me with their gyro in such a fashion that laid me up for 4 days. I may have written a famous book, under a nom de plume, called The Inferno, about the "justice" such food should afford the chef. Have you heard of it?


----------



## backcountry

7mm Reloaded said:


> For some reason almost everywhere in Vegas taste good maybe its the alcohol?😉


I really wish Vegas didn't have so many quality restaurants as the place largely lost its appeal to me a while ago. But amazing food and Red Rock draw us down there every few years.


----------



## Bax*

backcountry said:


> More importantly...Zaxby's sucks.


Right?! We ate there for the first time a few weeks back.... no interest in going back


----------



## Bax*

I once caught a fat ol rainbow on a piece of old KFC chicken that I found on the shoreline at East Canyon. I figured that Id try and catch some crawdads to pass the time and threw it on a hook and wrapped it up with a gob of fishing line someone left in the rocks (it looked like a tangly mess when I threw it into the water) and soon enough I saw my Tom Sawyer stick pole start sliding into the water so I grabbed it and realized I had a fish on the line.

Probably the craziest way I have ever caught a fish aside from using a clothes pin and beef jerky as a kid to catch blue gill from a dock.


----------



## bowgy

Bax* said:


> Right?! We ate there for the first time a few weeks back.... no interest in going back


That is too bad, I really have only had the chicken fingers but I like the marinade they use and the meat is always tender and juicy, I like their sauce on the fries but I always get a side of ranch for the chicken. I have it quite often for lunch, at least once a month. I guess we all have different tastes. 

The one I will never go back to is Culvers, been there 3 times, food was never great and the service sucked.


----------



## DallanC

bowgy said:


> The one I will never go back to is Culvers, been there 3 times, food was never great and the service sucked.


QFT! That place sucks. Ok shakes though. Cubbys is about the same.

-DallanC


----------



## ridgetop

I really liked Kenny Rogers roasters when they were around. Bummer they went out of business.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

Wrong memes thread but…..


----------



## backcountry

I hope we all recognize different opinions over chicken are fine but no one would be crazy enough to say something like, I don't know, "Texas "barbeque" is better than Carolina Barbeque". The party would quickly go from high spirits to Hatfields & McCoys levels of carnage real fast. As long as we all recognize pulled pork is the oldest and best tradition of American BBQ I think this will stay peaceful.

Carry on about poultry 😝


----------



## 3arabians

backcountry said:


> I hope we all recognize different opinions over chicken are fine but no one would be crazy enough to say something like, I don't know, "Texas "barbeque" is better than Carolina Barbeque". The party would quickly go from high spirits to Hatfields & McCoys levels of carnage real fast. As long as we all recognize pulled pork is the oldest and best tradition of American BBQ I think this will stay peaceful.
> 
> Carry on about poultry


Yaaa NO! Brisket over pulled pork all day! 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## johnnycake

I heard that bird flu has been detected in the US again. Only down in the L48 so far, but just to be safe Ava and I went out and removed some miscreants before they started killing people.









And while I'm not a big fan of chicken fingers, I will CRUSH about a dozen of them from Raising Canes


----------



## Vanilla

backcountry said:


> I hope we all recognize different opinions over chicken are fine but no one would be crazy enough to say something like, I don't know, "Texas "barbeque" is better than Carolina Barbeque". The party would quickly go from high spirits to Hatfields & McCoys levels of carnage real fast. As long as we all recognize pulled pork is the oldest and best tradition of American BBQ I think this will stay peaceful.
> 
> Carry on about poultry 😝


Everything about this is nonsense. Total fake news!


----------



## Bax*

backcountry said:


> I hope we all recognize different opinions over chicken are fine but no one would be crazy enough to say something like, I don't know, "Texas "barbeque" is better than Carolina Barbeque". The party would quickly go from high spirits to Hatfields & McCoys levels of carnage real fast. As long as we all recognize pulled pork is the oldest and best tradition of American BBQ I think this will stay peaceful.
> 
> Carry on about poultry 😝


Ever been to Sean’s Smokehouse in Saratoga?

Thats an old favorite after shooting on the desert or riding at 5 Mile Pass


----------



## CPAjeff

backcountry said:


> I hope we all recognize different opinions over chicken are fine but no one would be crazy enough to say something like, I don't know, "Texas "barbeque" is better than Carolina Barbeque". The party would quickly go from high spirits to Hatfields & McCoys levels of carnage real fast. As long as we all recognize pulled pork is the oldest and best tradition of American BBQ I think this will stay peaceful.
> 
> Carry on about poultry 😝


I pretty sure EVERYTHING is better in Texas. Even ol’ George has a good song about Texas:






I wasn’t a huge BBQ fan before moving to Texas. After living there for a little while, I was hooked!

Hayfields and MCcoys round one!


----------



## johnnycake

Love me some good BBQ and I don't turn my nose up at any of the styles. But I'll take a churrasco gaucho, argentinian asado, or South African braai over American BBQ


----------



## backcountry

Mr Rainbow Bear of the Clan Urinalcake,

I never said American BBQ was best just that everyone knows Carolina Pulled Pork is empirically recognized the best of American BBQ. It's clearly the consensus as the last comments highlight and it would be beyond the pale to even discuss beef in the presence of the mighty pork king.

South of the border and different continents change the equation. Granted I've never tried SA BBQ, can't say that's ever been available where I live. I am found of what I've tasted of various Mexican BBQ. Still waiting to go to a backyard Jalisco style barbacoa ... the pandemic got in the way.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Mr Rainbow Bear of the Clan Urinalcake,
> 
> I never said American BBQ was best just that everyone knows Carolina Pulled Pork is empirically recognized the best of American BBQ. It's clearly the consensus as the last comments highlight and *it would be beyond the pale* to even discuss beef in the presence of the mighty pork king.


Ah now it makes sense. You're hating on brisket and dino ribs because you're racist.


----------



## Bax*

I didn’t care for Wallaby’s BBQ


----------



## Vanilla

South African braai…decent. Churrasco, better. But nothing, and I mean nothing, beats a perfectly smoked brisket. It’s finicky and not always easy to get there like pulled pork. Pork butt is fantastic, but it’s easy. Perfectly done brisket is unbeatable for me in the BBQ world.


----------



## backcountry

johnnycake said:


> Ah now it makes sense. You're hating on brisket and dino ribs because you're racist.


I hear the dino ribs are dry aged to perfection


----------



## johnnycake

Vanilla said:


> South African braai…decent. Churrasco, better. But nothing, and I mean nothing, beats a perfectly smoked brisket. It’s finicky and not always easy to get there like pulled pork. Pork butt is fantastic, but it’s easy. Perfectly done brisket is unbeatable for me in the BBQ world.


Churrasco at a Brazilian steakhouse is ok, but it isn't churrasco gaucho. 

This is so much more. And brisket is very much featured, slow cooked on a rack or sword over eucalyptus coals. Mmmmmm


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Bax* said:


> I didn’t care for Wallaby’s BBQ


Now there's a name I haven't heard in awhile. I had to think about it for a minute. Are they even still around?


----------



## CPAjeff

Traditional Brazilian churrasco is truly something magical.

Argentina’s asado isn’t too far behind:










And the desserts aren’t too shabby either.


----------



## DallanC

This food derail has become wide ranging. I'm sad no-one has mentioned R&R BBQ at this point. 

For Mexican food, there is no better than Red Iguana.

-DallanC


----------



## Catherder

DallanC said:


> This food derail has become wide ranging. I'm sad no-one has mentioned R&R BBQ at this point.
> 
> For Mexican food, there is no better than Red Iguana.
> 
> -DallanC


Heard good things about both of those places, but don't get up to SLC as much as I used to to try.

On the Mexican food topic, when I lived in Vegas, I used to enjoy a chain called El Pollo Loco. I was tickled to see they opened one in Orem. It didn't disappoint.


----------



## backcountry

Do you run a side business, Catherder?


----------



## DallanC

Catherder said:


> On the Mexican food topic, when I lived in Vegas, I used to enjoy a chain called El Pollo Loco. I was tickled to see they opened one in Orem. It didn't disappoint.


Pollo Loco is ok.

I'm lucky theres a good selection here. We have a El Pollo Loco, Popeyes, Arbys, Panda, Texas Roadhouse, La Fountain, Buffalo Wild wings, Taco Bell, Rumbi's, Chili's and Slim Chickens all within like 1 block.

If you go about 5 blocks east, add to that 5 Guys, The Habit, Mod Pizza, Chick-fi-let, Cubbys, Costa Vida, Chipotle, Firehouse Subs and a bunch of small sandwich shops and whatnot, even a Black Bear Diner (bleh).

Out of all of those, we usually choose Slim Chickens for lunch, La Fountain or Texas Roadhouse for dinner.

-DallanC


----------



## colorcountrygunner

What kinda super bowl goodies is everyone getting ready for the weekend? I just picked up a brisket to throw on the traeger!!!


----------



## Vanilla

colorcountrygunner said:


> What kinda super bowl goodies is everyone getting ready for the weekend? I just picked up a brisket to throw on the traeger!!!


Texas Twinkies are going down this year. I've got some leftover brisket I had from my last one I chopped and froze just for this occasion.


----------



## 2full

Already have the little sausages bought for the crock pot. The wife has a great recipe. I'll smoke some chicken thighs as well. She will do a 7 layer bean dip.
Daughters will do their own little specialties along with that.
There is always wayyyy too much food.
I have a brisket in the freezer that needs to be done. Might do that as well.
I get to spend the day Tuesday at the Huntsman Center, and we are going to Montana for the rest of the week after that. Go see grandkids. The older one has senior basketball night. Hard to believe she is a senior already.

Have to have everything ready to go before we head out.


----------



## DallanC

Its usually just 2 or 3 of us... so a bowl of chips & salsa, plate of some summer sausage and some misc crackers, maybe some cheese. No real meal, just forage when hungry for 3 hours.

-DallanC


----------



## johnnycake

colorcountrygunner said:


> What kinda super bowl goodies is everyone getting ready for the weekend? I just picked up a brisket to throw on the traeger!!!


What makes a bowl so super? Might go smack some more ptarmy bastages before they can give folks the flu, then make a big pot of ptarmigan and spot prawn etoufee. A nice bowl of that sounds super to me


----------



## 3arabians

2full said:


> Already have the little sausages bought for the crock pot. The wife has a great recipe. I'll smoke some chicken thighs as well. She will do a 7 layer bean dip.
> Daughters will do their own little specialties along with that.
> There is always wayyyy too much food.
> I have a brisket in the freezer that needs to be done. Might do that as well.
> I get to spend the day Tuesday at the Huntsman Center, and we are going to Montana for the rest of the week after that. Go see grandkids. The older one has senior basketball night. Hard to believe she is a senior already.
> 
> Have to have everything ready to go before we head out.


This is perfect! But as this thread takes a turn toward poultry, bbq, and all things culinary, I must call you out on one thing. They ARE little smokies and NOT little sausages. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Bax*

Lone_Hunter said:


> Now there's a name I haven't heard in awhile. I had to think about it for a minute. Are they even still around?


I remember going to one in Utah County with a client once. But I saw one out at the District in South Jordan a couple weeks ago.


----------



## Bax*

@DallanC I think you must live near me. Have you been here? Del Barrio Cafe - Give em Something to Taco About – Family Owned

Their birria tacos are 👌🏻


----------



## DallanC

Bax* said:


> @DallanC I think you must live near me. Have you been here? Del Barrio Cafe - Give em Something to Taco About – Family Owned
> 
> Their birria tacos are 👌🏻


Nope... but I work in Murry... at least if we ever go back in the office. I'm now conditioned for no commute and working at home.

But, I'll have to hit up Del Barrio next time I'm up that way, their menu looks great.

-DallanC


----------



## middlefork

It's good to see you "southerners" have finally got it figured out. Enjoy! Oh and you too johnnycake.

I only wish I could partake. Unfortunately nature prevails. Good luck 2full!


----------



## 2full

3arabians said:


> This is perfect! But as this thread takes a turn toward poultry, bbq, and all things culinary, I must call you out on one thing. They ARE little smokies and NOT little sausages.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Yes they are !!


----------



## backcountry

johnnycake said:


> What makes a bowl so super? Might go smack some more ptarmy bastages before they can give folks the flu, then make a big pot of ptarmigan and spot prawn etoufee. A nice bowl of that sounds super to me


Okay, that sounds amazing.

Have you ever used Alton Brown's oven roux recipe for Gumbo? It makes quick, easy work and creates the perfect base for Cajun recipes.


----------



## johnnycake

backcountry said:


> Okay, that sounds amazing.
> 
> Have you ever used Alton Brown's oven roux recipe for Gumbo? It makes quick, easy work and creates the perfect base for Cajun recipes.


I haven't. The old creole fella that taught me Cajun cooking had a system where he cooks the roux with the trinity in a specific order and while it's a bit labor intensive it's results are hard to argue with. Even if he'd whup me with a spoon if he saw me putting mushrooms in... But I like it that way.


----------



## backcountry

I can't imagine putting mushrooms in any canjun food but I'm all for experimenting. I've got a running list of "fusion recipes for a food cart if we ever have $10-20k to throw at a crazy idea.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Somone mention Cajon? 

Something I miss, but your not going to see it anywhere else outside Lousiana and the Mississippi gulf coast.... a real effin Crawfish boil. Was stationed in that area for a year and a half once. Shop party's were always a crawfish boil. I remember bits of corn on the cob, potatos, and a metric ton of purged crawfish going into a massive pot. Done right, those spices will burn your lips, and if you didn't eat those crawfish right, the local boys in the shop would give you a rash of ****. Ya gotta suck the heads! It's acutally where most of the flavor is. Crack em in half, suck the head while squeezing it, and then eat the tail. Do it right, and you don't have to peel it.

When I left the area, I searched for years to find a decent crawfish boil. You won't find one outside the gulf coast. You just won't. Another thing I miss, is Po Boy sandwhiches. Loaded up with some kind of seafood. Oyster Po Boy's where bomber! Won't find those outside the gulf coast either.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Lone_Hunter said:


> Somone mention Cajon?
> 
> Something I miss, but your not going to see it anywhere else outside Lousiana and the Mississippi gulf coast.... a real effin Crawfish boil. Was stationed in that area for a year and a half once. Shop party's were always a crawfish boil. I remember bits of corn on the cob, potatos, and a metric ton of purged crawfish going into a massive pot. Done right, those spices will burn your lips, and if you didn't eat those crawfish right, the local boys in the shop would give you a rash of ****. Ya gotta suck the heads! It's acutally where most of the flavor is. Crack em in half, suck the head while squeezing it, and then eat the tail. Do it right, and you don't have to peel it.
> 
> When I left the area, I searched for years to find a decent crawfish boil. You won't find one outside the gulf coast. You just won't. Another thing I miss, is Po Boy sandwhiches. Loaded up with some kind of seafood. Oyster Po Boy's where bomber! Won't find those outside the gulf coast either.


I would like to enjoy that experience sometime. I sure didn't find it at the hook n reel over in West Valley. 🤢🤮


----------



## TheOtherJeff

Lone_Hunter said:


> That's what arguing on the internet is. It doesn't stop until someone thinks they get the last word in, or Godwin's law is invoked.


That said, the protagonists here should all get a commendation for going nearly 3,000 posts without Godwin's law being invoked. That's got to be some kind of record.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

johnnycake said:


> Churrasco at a Brazilian steakhouse is ok, but it isn't churrasco gaucho.
> 
> This is so much more. And brisket is very much featured, slow cooked on a rack or sword over eucalyptus coals. Mmmmmm
> View attachment 151111


That looks delicious. Unless you are on an island populated by the Maori. Though my primal urge to be spit roasted might keep me around.


----------



## TheOtherJeff

Bax* said:


> So the next question is: Popeyes or KFC?


To bring a couple of posts together here, Popeye's used to have a halfway decent chicken finger Po Boy. Nothing that would be respected on the Gulf Coast, mind you, but it was a better option that a basic chicken sandwich.


----------



## TheOtherJeff

Catherder said:


> I will probably never forgive the Beaver Arby's for 5 days of gastrointestinal misery while at a CE event in Vegas.


You should have eaten Wendy's Beaver instead.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

I'm so going to hell when I die.


----------



## Bax*

Lone_Hunter said:


> I'm so going to hell when I die.


Well, let’s meet up and have a BBQ. I’m sure there are flying demon bats with flames for wings that we could hunt.


----------



## Catherder

TheOtherJeff said:


> That said, the protagonists here should all get a commendation for going nearly 3,000 posts without Godwin's law being invoked. That's got to be some kind of record.


Not sure we are worthy of that commendation. The anti vax fellers have made multiple references to "Nuremburg codes" and I'm sure they dropped a Mengele reference or two. Godwins law proves to be true. 

Now for heavens (or hells) sake, lets get back to the food talk. It's much more enjoyable and I'm stuck at work and its almost lunch time. 🍴


----------



## backcountry

TheOtherJeff said:


> To bring a couple of posts together here, Popeye's used to have a halfway decent chicken finger Po Boy. Nothing that would be respected on the Gulf Coast, mind you, but it was a better option that a basic chicken sandwich.


I truly don't understand how the Po Boy hasn't universally caught on around the country. It's pure comfort food.

I've only been the Jazz Fest once but it was back when you could get a beer and Crawfish Po Boy for under $10. Sit with those in one of the peripheral tents = great time.


----------



## Catherder

backcountry said:


> I truly don't understand how the Po Boy hasn't universally caught on around the country. It's pure comfort food.


I think the problem with the "Po Boy" is as a non Southerner, I'm not totally sure what it is. You order one from 5 different Southern style or Cajun restaurants and you seem to get 5 different things. Some are good, some so-so and some taste like chit. 🤷‍♀️ 
Maybe its just me though.


----------



## backcountry

There definitely can be poor execution. You have to have the right bread and filling combo. Too greasy and/or wrong bread = disaster. (Similar to how burger joints can overfill and not have a bun that holds up to their soggy monstrosities)

There really is an art to such short order cook menu items.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Brisket getting ready to go low and slow for awhile. 🍤 tacos tonight.


----------



## Lone_Hunter

Catherder said:


> I think the problem with the "Po Boy" is as a non Southerner, I'm not totally sure what it is. You order one from 5 different Southern style or Cajun restaurants and you seem to get 5 different things. Some are good, some so-so and some taste like chit. 🤷‍♀️
> Maybe its just me though.


I'm not a southerner. Spend a year there, and you'll learn all sorts of things. It's basically a submarine sandwhich, with stuff on it you typically won't see elsewhere. LIke deepfried oysters or shrimp. It's the unique fixiing's that make it a poboy.

On the otherside of the world, in "The land of the morning Calm", there' Beef Boulgogi. The real stuff, is spicy, and freaking aweeeessssommme. Avoid however, Gaegogi. That's dog. Seriously.

Side note: I've traveled the length and bredth of the ROK. Never saw a beef cow.

edit:
Another side note, while I was there, their alchol wasn't regulated. Meaning the alcohol content per bottle of booze would vary. Some would knock you flat on your ass, others, not so much. Korea is best known for Soju. The stuff they drink domestically, smells like rice wine and formaldehyde. The **** they export smells like rice wine and hydrogen peroxide. Getting hammered on the domestic stuff was known as "The Soju experience". I've known a guy walk off the roof of a building. "I'm goign downstairs now guys, see ya", and off he went. Another guy decided he wanted to play chicken with a bus... as a pedestrian. Anyone drunk on Soju has a big freaking S on their chest.. they think their superman, but their not. I got hammered on it once REAL good. I don't remember much expect puking 100 yards down an alley, the whole way. Guys in my unit had to haul me back to the barracks. Apparently I was picking fights with Marines or some ****. Only night I ever got hammered and couldnt' remember what happened, and i was hung over for two days.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Haha so last night I started a brisket thinking I was getting it ready for the super bowl today. My brother corrected me and let me know the super bowl isn't until next weekend. Whoops! Practice run I guess. Shows how much attention I pay to sports ball. You guys think Lebarn James will score any goals?


----------



## middlefork

colorcountrygunner said:


> Haha so last night I started a brisket thinking I was getting it ready for the super bowl today. My brother corrected me and let me know the super bowl isn't until next weekend. Whoops! Practice run I guess. Shows how much attention I pay to sports ball. You guys think Lebarn James will score any goals?


Just turn it into a long tail gate party.


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## Vanilla

Adding in the 17th regular season game this year pushed it back a week. I’m a football junkie and it wasn’t until a couple weeks ago that I connected the dots that it was not the first Sunday in February like usual.


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## DallanC

Pro-bowl is today.

-DallanC


----------



## Bax*

colorcountrygunner said:


> Haha so last night I started a brisket thinking I was getting it ready for the super bowl today. My brother corrected me and let me know the super bowl isn't until next weekend. Whoops! Practice run I guess. Shows how much attention I pay to sports ball. You guys think Lebarn James will score any goals?


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## TheOtherJeff

DallanC said:


> Pro-bowl is today.
> 
> -DallanC


What's that?


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## colorcountrygunner

TheOtherJeff said:


> What's that?


I think it's when johnnycake makes a big ol bowl of ptarmigan something or other frenchy sounding.


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## TheOtherJeff

colorcountrygunner said:


> I think it's when johnnycake makes a big ol bowl of ptarmigan something or other frenchy sounding.


Oh good. I was afraid that might be what happens when Backcountry eats beans and goes ice fishing.


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## backcountry

Well that thread backfired, no pun intended


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## Bax*

backcountry said:


> Well that thread backfired, no pun intended


I think it’s going swimmingly! No more debate on covid. And we are talking about stuff we generally care about: food and sports.


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## backcountry

Oh, I meant the Panguitch one that has led people to believe I eat a whole pot of beans and rice, ie OtherJeff's unfounded allegations 😁


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## johnnycake

colorcountrygunner said:


> Haha so last night I started a brisket thinking I was getting it ready for the super bowl today. My brother corrected me and let me know the super bowl isn't until next weekend. Whoops! Practice run I guess. Shows how much attention I pay to sports ball. You guys think Lebarn James will score any goals?


I trusted you. And because of that Ava and I went out and murdered 5 more innocent petarmitagains today. 

Oh well, I guess we'll have to do it again next week


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## colorcountrygunner

johnnycake said:


> I trusted you. And because of that Ava and I went out and murdered 5 more innocent petarmitagains today.
> 
> Oh well, I guess we'll have to do it again next week


Thank you for your service. I hope you and Ava will be able to keep us all safe from the bird flu. God speed!


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## johnnycake

colorcountrygunner said:


> Thank you for your service. I hope you and Ava will be able to keep us all safe from the bird flu. God speed!


It's an uphill battle and a tough job, but somebody's gotta do it.

For the children.


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## Catherder

Tried Raising Canes tonight with my son. Pretty good! Nice and tender fingers and we went away quite full. The sauce didn't blow me away like it does some, but wasn't bad. 

My son wants to go back and I won't argue about that.


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## KineKilla

Catherder said:


> View attachment 151178
> 
> 
> 
> Tried Raising Canes tonight with my son. Pretty good! Nice and tender fingers and we went away quite full. The sauce didn't blow me away like it does some, but wasn't bad.
> 
> My son wants to go back and I won't argue about that.


Been curious but get turned off every time I see the line.

Maybe one day I'll have the patience to wait it out.

Sent from my SM-N976U using Tapatalk


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## colorcountrygunner

Sooooo...are we done with this now? Seems like the talk of covid has died way down and they hardly mention it in the news now. I guess the Russia/Ukraine story is taking center stage now. Walmart has lifted their face mask requirement for their employees. Our Lord and Savior Jesus Fauci has even said we are out of full blown pandemic mode now. Is there light at the end of the tunnel?


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## Lone_Hunter

colorcountrygunner said:


> Sooooo...are we done with this now? Seems like the talk of covid has died way down and they hardly mention it in the news now. I guess the Russia/Ukraine story is taking center stage now. Walmart has lifted their face mask requirement for their employees. Our Lord and Savior Jesus Fauci has even said we are out of full blown pandemic mode now. Is there light at the end of the tunnel?


Next flu season will tell. I expect Ukraine and Taiwan to be center stage. Taiwan is next, it's a good bet. I strongly suspect/wonder if the installed powers that be, will land us into another war. If it's with a near peer, or peer advisory, the coof will be the least of our worries.


----------



## 7mm Reloaded

I think it will come back again next winter hopefully not as strong. We need to all put our political beliefs aside and join together as Americans because we will all need each other if 2 nations with nukes ever take a shot at each other. 🇺🇸


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## Catherder

colorcountrygunner said:


> Sooooo...are we done with this now? Seems like the talk of covid has died way down and they hardly mention it in the news now. I guess the Russia/Ukraine story is taking center stage now. Walmart has lifted their face mask requirement for their employees. Our Lord and Savior Jesus Fauci has even said we are out of full blown pandemic mode now. Is there light at the end of the tunnel?


The local numbers do look really promising right now. I guess all us vaccinated folks didn't drop dead or become sickened as was being suggested by some on here.   

I'm sure we will see more variants appear and sporadic outbreaks occur. I'm also sure that annual booster vaccinations will be the norm, as it is with influenza. That said, I think it is realistic that we will not see the situation with hospitalizations and deaths as bad as what we experienced with Delta and Omicron, at least for a while. Too many of us have had exposure, either through infection, vax, or both.


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## Vanilla

Catherder said:


> The local numbers do look really promising right now. I guess all us vaccinated folks didn't drop dead or become sickened as was being suggested by some on here.
> 
> I'm sure we will see more variants appear and sporadic outbreaks occur. I'm also sure that annual booster vaccinations will be the norm, as it is with influenza. That said, I think it is realistic that we will not see the situation with hospitalizations and deaths as bad as what we experienced with Delta and Omicron, at least for a while. Too many of us have had exposure, either through infection, vax, or both.


☝☝ This. It's never going to go away, and we are beyond the point where governments should try to pretend like they will get rid of it. Omicron, while creating some havoc on its own, seems to have given us what we really needed on the larger societal level for "herd immunity," whatever that means, that other previous variants could not. It's sad to say that out loud, as some were lost in that process and that is not lost on me. But omicron hopefully gave us that push to where we can move on. Like I said, we are beyond the time to stop focusing so much attention on this. I very much agree with Governor Cox last week when he said if we want to move on, then let's move on. ALL of us. All sides of this need to quit hyper-politicizing it by pushing mandates or mandates against mandates, and just move on. Let's truly be done if we're going to be done. All of us.

I'm personally ready for that. I've been that way for a while now. I'm up in Oregon right now and this was the sign at the venue I’m at. It will be really nice when these are gone everywhere.


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## colorcountrygunner

Catherder said:


> I guess all us vaccinated folks didn't drop dead or become sickened as was being suggested by some on here.


That kind of idiocy went both ways to be fair. About a year ago, Reddit was full of soy boys autistically screeching that the red states were going to have death rates of bubonic plague levels because they were full of "anti-science" dumb redne.cks who were too stubborn to get the vax. I think this is more of what they were hoping was going to happen than what they actually thought was going to happen. All the soy boy MDs also predicted Trump wasn't going to survive his case of covid due to him being old and fat. I think they were pretty disappointed when he shook it off like it was a common cold.


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## colorcountrygunner

TOTP^^^


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## Lone_Hunter

Catherder said:


> I guess all us vaccinated folks didn't drop dead or become sickened as was being suggested by some on here.


Honestly, it's too early to tell. Most probably don't remember it now, but back in.... 97 or there abouts, the military had started mandatory anthrax vaccinations. I was on my way out of the active reserves, outprocessing as it was. To maintain mobility status, I had to have the shot (amongst many others). I didn't get it, and honestly, I wasn't sure I wanted it. Now the big blow up over mandatory coof shots, isn't anything new, as the anthrax shots illustrates. It was the same old story, get the shot, or get discharged on a medical or failture to conform, or some crap like that. (In my case with anthrax, i was out the door with my second honorable discharge anyway)

However....... as it turned out the anthrax vaccination was bad for you in the long term, and had some side effects. To my knowledge the services stopped that vaccination around 2005 or something like that. You talk to some people in veteran circles, and they'll remember it "fondly".

So the current crop of covid shots? We'll see. Give it a few years. Personally, I got the J&J, and a phizer booster. I'm 48, my life is half over anyway. Phuck it. We did NOT however, vaccinate our 8 year old. The long term prospects are much riskier then the short term infection. Give that age group is the least at risk and recovers much quicker then us middle aged fogies, the unknown longterm risk wasn't worth the reward.


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## Catherder

Lone_Hunter said:


> So the current crop of covid shots? We'll see. Give it a few years.


Anything is possible, but this I do know. A lot of unvaccinated folks won't get a chance to wait and see because they are no longer with us. A lot of "long covid" victims are living lives of "wait and see" every day, wondering if they will ever improve. In spite of constant frothing by anti-vaxxers and hysterical reporting by the news media about anyone that has a severe reaction to the shot, vaccinations have not produced a mass casualty event. 

Lets hope that the current trends continue and this covid thread can die. I'm sure we can all agree with that.


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## callofthewild2

with this being said. where is the best place for lunch in the spanish fork?


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## colorcountrygunner

callofthewild2 said:


> with this being said. where is the best place for lunch in the spanish fork?


New super chix place ain't bad!


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## Vanilla

Super Chix is good and allows you to jump into the chicken sandwich comparison craze. Barry’s is a pretty darn good burger and fries.

There is a crap ton of stuff in the new developments over there.


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## Daisy

Milk.....It does a body good:

Uzbek scientists spy herd immunity potential in milk of vaccinated cows


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## Catherder

callofthewild2 said:


> with this being said. where is the best place for lunch in the spanish fork?


It's on the border of Spanish and Springville, but I like a place called T-bone. It's a Chinese food restaurant that has a decent "American" menu selection for those that want something else, but their Chinese food is quite good!


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## colorcountrygunner

if you guys like that sticky table, flies buzzing around, this place might not pass health code inspection kinda feel go to lil acorn!


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## johnnycake

colorcountrygunner said:


> if you guys like that sticky table, flies buzzing around, this place might not pass health code inspection kinda feel go to lil acorn!


Little Acorn was a family staple heading down to Huntington for decades. But the food quality just tanked around 2010. Major disappointment


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## colorcountrygunner

johnnycake said:


> Little Acorn was a family staple heading down to Huntington for decades. But the food quality just tanked around 2010. Major disappointment


The place really could use a makeover. With the glut of traffic always going up highway 6 it seems like someone could put some work into the place and turn it into a cash cow. I gave it multiple chances, because it used to always draw me in when I was heading back into town, but it disappointed each and every time.😥


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## Critter

That is one place that I have never stopped. I drove that canyon two times a day 6 days a week for 2 years and just flew by it every time.


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## middlefork

Spanish Fork and Springville a gourmet attraction. Whoda thought?


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## backcountry

I stopped judging food by location after eating the best meal of my life in the same strip mall as a live sex club and accosted by 3 homeless people. Not a pun.


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## Lone_Hunter

callofthewild2 said:


> with this being said. where is the best place for lunch in the spanish fork?


Define "Best"?
My vote is for Little Acorn. Nothing beats a greasy spoon when your coming down from the mountains. I drove through the place so often last year, the guy at the drive in window recognized me a couple weeks ago even though the last time I pulled through was October.

Aside from that, if your looking for asian food, there's the Lucky 5 on main street. (Also a 2 jacks pizza on mian), China Wok near the Big 5, and the recenly open Panda express accross the street from Petco. They always screw up your order though.

Best burger is probably 5 Guys, in that strip mall type of thing down the street from costco, where the kneaders and Costa vida is located.

Mexican your looking at costa vida or cafe reo.

Nope, I totally don't live in Spainish Fork. 

I miss it when I had to drive to orem to get anything. Place is a crowded FusterCluck now.


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## callofthewild2

dang thanks guys. i agree with all of those. i just wanted to change the topic again. looks like it kind of worked. got a good laugh there.


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## Lone_Hunter

_sigh_








There are 25+ US-funded biolabs in Ukraine


There are 25+ US-funded biolabs in Ukraine, which if breached, would release & spread deadly pathogens to US/world. We must take action now to prevent disaster. US/Russia/Ukraine/NATO/UN/EU must imple




rumble.com


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## backcountry




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## colorcountrygunner

What are everybody's thoughts at this stage? I recently found myself in one of those corners of reddit filled with college brainwash...er...educated Marxists and they act like the covid problem is as widespread and dangerous now as it has ever been and everybody who isn't still living in a mask and getting a booster every other day is a selfish idiot who is trying to kill everybody. They seem to think we should all still be locked down or working from home still and corporations are treating us like human sacrifices to keep the profits rolling in. I don't know how some of these people even function lol.

My double vaxxed and boosted dad just came down with it last week. My wife and I who are raw dogging it through life with no anti-covid secret sauce flowing through our veins were around him and didn't catch chit. Maybe already having had covid is better immunity than the vax? My employer STILL requires biweekly covid tests, so I would know if I caught it from my dad even if I was asymptomatic. Here in another week I will be traveling through some pretty blue country on my way over to Estes Park and on down to Denver and I'm curious to see how many more people I will see still rocking a face diaper. I still see a few in Utah County, but only a very few.


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## Vanilla

The president says the pandemic is over. That’s how I’m operating. 









Biden: 'The pandemic is over'


President Joe Biden said he believes the Covid-19 pandemic is "over" in an appearance on CBS' "60 Minutes," but acknowledged the US still has a "problem" with the virus that has killed more than 1 million Americans.




amp.cnn.com





I never used to get a flu shot until I got influenza A back in 2012. It was the most miserable 48 hours of my life. I get a flu shot every year now. I will continue to get flu shots each year. My doc recommends it, and I don’t want to feel the way I did a decade ago. Vaccinations have never scared me, they still don’t. I’m still alive and the 5G on my new phone hasn’t turned me into a zombie. Yearly covid-related boosters, if recommended by my doctor, don’t bother me. If my doc doesn't recommend getting it, I won’t.

I see masks out and about every once in a while. Doesn’t bother me. Do what you want to do. I think we are well beyond the government trying to tell us what we have to do here, hence, the pandemic being over.


----------



## Catherder

colorcountrygunner said:


> What are everybody's thoughts at this stage? I recently found myself in one of those corners of reddit filled with college brainwash...er...educated Marxists and they act like the covid problem is as widespread and dangerous now as it has ever been and everybody who isn't still living in a mask and getting a booster every other day is a selfish idiot who is trying to kill everybody. They seem to think we should all still be locked down or working from home still and corporations are treating us like human sacrifices to keep the profits rolling in. I don't know how some of these people even function lol.
> 
> My double vaxxed and boosted dad just came down with it last week. My wife and I who are raw dogging it through life with no anti-covid secret sauce flowing through our veins were around him and didn't catch chit. Maybe already having had covid is better immunity than the vax? My employer STILL requires biweekly covid tests, so I would know if I caught it from my dad even if I was asymptomatic. Here in another week I will be traveling through some pretty blue country on my way over to Estes Park and on down to Denver and I'm curious to see how many more people I will see still rocking a face diaper. I still see a few in Utah County, but only a very few.




I am too lazy to go through my posts on this thread, but it seems now to be what I thought it might about a year ago. Rona is still around, annual vaccination is a good idea, especially for those with risk factors, but it isn't much of a disruption anymore. In my circle, even the cautious and/or liberal folks have toned things down and settled in to some semblance of "normal". There will always be nutjobs on the left similar to what we demonstrably see on the right. life goes on. 

2 more thoughts. 

1. Remember, that some of those folks wearing masks may have a very good reason to do so, and it may not just be regarding Rona. As my wife has progressed through cancer therapy, she has worn a mask quite a bit. Now we are past the worst of it, she doesn't anymore when going out. But when she was, it wasn't that she was some Rona zealot. 

2. My wife and I will get the new booster shortly. For her, it is obvious why. And for me, since I don't want to bring anything extra home. Other than the shot though, I don't give Rona much of a second thought anymore. I can't say that it was a huge disruption though for me and the family while the pandemic was raging.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Catherder said:


> I am too lazy to go through my posts on this thread, but it seems now to be what I thought it might about a year ago. Rona is still around, annual vaccination is a good idea, especially for those with risk factors, but it isn't much of a disruption anymore. In my circle, even the cautious and/or liberal folks have toned things down and settled in to some semblance of "normal". There will always be nutjobs on the left similar to what we demonstrably see on the right. life goes on.
> 
> 2 more thoughts.
> 
> 1. Remember, that some of those folks wearing masks may have a very good reason to do so, and it may not just be regarding Rona. As my wife has progressed through cancer therapy, she has worn a mask quite a bit. Now we are past the worst of it, she doesn't anymore when going out. But when she was, it wasn't that she was some Rona zealot.
> 
> 2. My wife and I will get the new booster shortly. For her, it is obvious why. And for me, since I don't want to bring anything extra home. Other than the shot though, I don't give Rona much of a second thought anymore. I can't say that it was a huge disruption though for me and the family while the pandemic was raging.


I gotcha. Sorry if I came off a little bit flippant to situations such as yours and your wife's. I just get a little wound up when I see all these armchair epidemiologists acting like people are pieces of trash for continuing on with life and not spending the rest of eternity with a muzzle on their faces. I understand there are a lot of immunocompromised people who don't want to take any risks still wearing masks. I think for some people, however, it has become part of their identity and leaving the house without a mask would be like leaving the house in a MAGA hat. How will their peers know that they are part of the good team without the constant virtue signaling?


----------



## Catherder

colorcountrygunner said:


> I gotcha. Sorry if I came off a little bit flippant to situations such as yours and your wife's.


You didn't. It's all good. 

One more thought though. In my acquaintances, I do know a fair number of medical folks. Political affiliation is across the spectrum. The huge majority of them do recommend the vaccination, but themselves are going on with their lives. I think that is a good model to follow. With respect to the "armchair epidemiologists", I suspect many of that crowd have as much credibility as Olibooger's bunch. I wouldn't let it get me riled up. Unless one is looking for a dose of cathartic partisan outrage, then it works great.


----------



## Ray

My mindset throughout this entire thing is do what makes you feel comfortable but don’t begrudge those that aren’t doing exactly what you’re doing


----------



## Critter

I think that the major problem with Covid is a long time behind us. However it will be with us for a very long time like most viruses. 

I know of half a dozen people who have contacted it in the last 6 or so months. Their cases were quite mild and were handled with the pill that this available now and home rest, much like the flu. They all came out of it quite quickly and are back to normal 

As for mask, if you want to wear them then do so. If you don't then don't. The only time that I have put a mask on is when walking into a business or Dr's office where they are still requiring a mask to be worn. There are not so many businesses but Dr offices seam to be hit and miss. My general practitioners office is a you decided what you want to do Most of their employees are wearing mask but it isn't required of the patients. I have a appointment with my asthma Dr next month and he is one that required everyone to be masked 5 months ago so I'll see if he still requires it or not. 

I just pack a couple of mask in my vehicle just encase I need to wear one for where I am going. 

Last June when I went to South Africa with a group of hunters there were a number in our group who just about didn't get into the country. They had the required documentation to get in as far as a vaccine or test but they didn't have a mask with them, and at the airport in Johannesburg where we entered the country everyone was required to be masked. I just by chance had a dozen or so extra mask with me that I just started to pass out to the ones who didn't have one. That could of put a quick end to their hunts since there was no place to purchase or get a mask as we walked up to the customs agents for entrance into the country.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Catherder said:


> Unless one is looking for a dose of cathartic partisan outrage, then it works great.


Are you expecting me to live my life without unnecessary outrage? That's a bridge too far, pal!


----------



## colorcountrygunner

Wow, Critter, sounds like you really saved the day! That is crazy.


----------



## Critter

colorcountrygunner said:


> Wow, Critter, sounds like you really saved the day! That is crazy.


For some reason they had no idea that a different country would have different regulations and that it could ruin your stay there if you didn't adhere to their regulations. 

I don't think that it would of been as bad as I described since those of us who had mask could of went in search of some inside the airport proper, but at 4am not that much was open. You just never know.


----------



## Vanilla

One thing I hope we all learn from this experience is that if you are sick (covid, cold, flu…I don’t care what) you stay home. That was always a bur in my saddle when people are sick as a dog heading into the office, church, school, etc. If you’re sick, stay home. I hope we’ve learned that.

Not holding my breath.


----------



## brisket

colorcountrygunner said:


> My wife and I who are raw dogging it through life with no anti-covid secret sauce flowing through our veins


To my fellow pure blood, congratulations! Seriously. You survived the largest psychological fear campaign ever hoisted upon humanity.


----------



## colorcountrygunner

brisket said:


> To my fellow pure blood, congratulations! Seriously. You survived the largest psychological fear campaign ever hoisted upon humanity.


💪


----------



## Lone_Hunter

My personal thoughts are mixed. 

Life is pretty much normal aside from all the overcrowding. Wife and I are back to doing a weekly date, going out to lunch or dinner. I can't remember when I last wore a face diaper. 

However, In the back of my mind, i'm waiting to see what crops up this flu season. Probably a new varient. May spread like wildfire, maybe not, but it will probably also be a milder variant then the last, which may just equate to another flu. I'm still checking the state website on the latest numbers and trends once in awhile, but it's not something I look at on a regular basis. But it bears mentioning, I do alot of this kind of thing, as there's a lot of crap going down in the world these days, and I feel like I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop.

As vaccination goes, I'm thinking I'll pass on any more. Wife made me get the J&J, and got boosted once with Phizer in the summer of last year before winter, but I think that's as far down the road on the vaccination bus as I'm going to go. I keep hearing about 25 year olds droping from heart attacks or increased incidences of blood clots through the grapevine. I figure at this point, I haven't burned out my immune system yet,. Also knowing the governments history with vaccines such as the anthrax shot they forced the military to do back in the late 90's - which they've since abandoned as it turned out to not be a good thing....... I think i'll pass on anymore and take my chances, especially if the strains are becoming milder.

Haven't caught it yet. (knock on wood) I avoided people even before the coof. I already didn't like being around a lot of people before, I get clausterphobic. So all the coof did was make me into more of a hermit then I already was.


----------



## DREW_22

Guidance for Mrna COVID-19 Vaccine | Florida Department of Health


----------

