# Draw odds fluctuations explained?



## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2013/13_elk.pdf

Ok, so if you look at Hunt # 3037 (Central/Manti early I assume), why is it that with 0 points you have a 1 in 483 chance of drawing, then with 1 point your odds increase substantially to 1 in 60, but again with 2 points they plummet back to the 1 in 305 range?

Even weirder to me is the # 3038 Hunt. You had a 1 in 13.7 chance with 0 points, but there is an N/A in the 1 point section then 1 in 16.8 with 2 points.

Why is it your chances of drawing a tag are actually better with 0 points than with 2 or 3, and why are your chances almost non-existent with 1 point in some cases? Why even bother putting out draw odds?

...Forgive my ignorance, for I know not what I ask...


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

I think you should look at this report as past draw RESULTS instead of future draw ODDS. Randomly, 1 out the 483 applicants with 0 points drew the early rifle tag, but that doesn't mean they give out 1 tag per 483 0-point applicants. It just means that that lucky person was randomly assigned a low enough number to draw a tag. Half the tags (69, this case) go to those with the most points. The other half goes to the lowest randomly assigned numbers. Each point gets you a number.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

That sounds like a fairly good explanation.

So, each point is just like having 1 additional lottery ticket in your pocket? That's good news for most but my luck sucks so even with a pocketful of tickets I'm likely to be waiting a VERY long time...;-)


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

That is not correct. Each point does not get you another "entry" into the draw. Half the tags on any unit go to the highest point applicants, whatever that is. The other half of the tags go randomly to everyone else that applies. Points only mean something to those with the highest point total in any given pool. Otherwise, they are meaningless.

For example, I have 10 bull elk points. The unit I applied for has 10 tags. Last year, half the tags went to guys with 15 or more points. Once those five tags were gone, my 10 points meant the exact same thing as guys with 0 points, guys with 12 points, and guys with 5 points, and everything else. I still get only one entry in the drawing, even if I have 10 points.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

If you have 10pts they draw 10 "numbers" for you and then take the lowest. They then use everyone's "lowest" number for the draw itself.

Also fluctuations can also be caused by people with alot of points jumping ship from one draw area to another.

-DallanC


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

What you're looking at when you look at this report is the DWRs interpretation of what actually happened in the drawing for 2013... it is not a prediction of chances of drawing.



KineKilla said:


> Ok, so if you look at Hunt # 3037 (Central/Manti early I assume), why is it that with 0 points you have a 1 in 483 chance of drawing, then with 1 point your odds increase substantially to 1 in 60, but again with 2 points they plummet back to the 1 in 305 range?


What ended up happening was 5 lucky guys with one point actually drew tags. So 5 of the 300 appplicants (or 1 in 60) with one point drew a tag. Only 1 applicant with 2 points drew. But remember, it's not a prediciton of drawing probablility.



KineKilla said:


> Even weirder to me is the # 3038 Hunt. You had a 1 in 13.7 chance with 0 points, but there is an N/A in the 1 point section then 1 in 16.8 with 2 points.


The report says NA simply because nobody with 1 point was lucky enough to draw that tag... it's not that their odds are worse than those with 0 points... just that none of them had their number drawn to win the tag.



KineKilla said:


> Why is it your chances of drawing a tag are actually better with 0 points than with 2 or 3, and why are your chances almost non-existent with 1 point in some cases? Why even bother putting out draw odds?


They aren't, a guy with 1 point has twice the chance to have his number drawn and win the tag compared to a guy with zero points... it just happens that guys with zero points were luckier last year (at least for the late Manti tag).



KineKilla said:


> So, each point is just like having 1 additional lottery ticket in your pocket? That's good news for most but my luck sucks so even with a pocketful of tickets I'm likely to be waiting a VERY long time...;-)


Good way to look at it with the lottery ticket comparison. The trick to "winning the lotttery" with low points is to go for units that have larger numbers of tags. As GaryFish describes, half the tags are reserved for the guys with the most points & the other half are drawn lottery style. More tags available in the lottery means more of a chance to have tags available when your number is pulled.



DallenC said:


> If you have 10pts they draw 10 "numbers" for you and then take the lowest.


You actually get 11 numbers... one for each point you have plus one more for the application itself.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

When everyone says they draw "numbers" for applicants, do you mean that on a unit that has say 70 tags all the numbers are between 1-70 (edit: obviously this can't be the case because there are way more than 70 applicants), or if there were a total of say 300 applicants, are the numbers all between 1-300?

Not sure what the numbers are for, and why the lowest numbers are better to have. Most games I play (except golf I suppose) the higher the number the better.


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

GaryFish said:


> That is not correct. Each point does not get you another "entry" into the draw. Half the tags on any unit go to the highest point applicants, whatever that is. The other half of the tags go randomly to everyone else that applies. Points only mean something to those with the highest point total in any given pool. Otherwise, they are meaningless.
> 
> For example, I have 10 bull elk points. The unit I applied for has 10 tags. Last year, half the tags went to guys with 15 or more points. Once those five tags were gone, my 10 points meant the exact same thing as guys with 0 points, guys with 12 points, and guys with 5 points, and everything else. I still get only one entry in the drawing, even if I have 10 points.


http://wildlife.utah.gov/rules-regulations/988-r657-62--drawing-application-procedures.html

From heading 8:
(5)(a) Each applicant receives a random drawing number for:
(i) each species applied for; and
(ii) each bonus point for that species.


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## silentstalker (Feb 19, 2008)

Yes, with 70 tags, numbers 1-70 draw a tag. Everyone else is unsuccessful. Thats why you take your lowest number into the drawing.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> You actually get 11 numbers... one for each point you have plus one more for the application itself.


Yes, that's true. Thanks for clarifying.

-DallanC


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Thanks for clarifying. I stand corrected.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

I have found that it is best not to even try to figure out Utah's draw system. All it will do is get you flustered. 

Just live with it and don't worry about it since you can't change it


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

I'm going to burst some bubbles here. My dad has worked as a volunteer at the fish and game for going on 4 years weekly. In that time he became privy to some dis concerning info from DWR guys to remain unmentioned. If you look in the Big Game field guide you'll find it does not give any info outside max point holders for each unit. And if you pull up the big book of draw results you'll find outside max point holders, no consistency with people drawing tags based on the more points they have. I mean it's across the board. Why, because unless you have max points that are say 18 for the unit you are applying for, and you have 16, the guy that had zero had just as good as chance as you at drawing. There is no name in the bucket for as many times as points, that's what they want you to believe. Think about it if it worked that way there should be some consistency with higher point holders drawing tags. But the DWR has it figured out, you'll keep dumping your money in, like I do to reach max. You have to or missing years could cost your points last time I checked. If no lower or zero point holders drew out, the DWR realizes that could hurt people putting in, in the first place, so they give everyone save max point holders the same shot. This way they make sure they get their money. The best way to increase your odds is a to put in as a group, unless your max than go it alone, or draw an expo tag like I did this year. I put my time in since my late teens on Boulder Elk, in 2012 I finally reached max, and it's the trophy of a lifetime. Unfortunately my dad won't likely live long enough for me to see him draw the bull tag of his dreams. I welcome anyone to research this, I have.


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## torowy (Jun 19, 2008)

The dwr doesn't even do the draw, a company in Nevada does. So, I'm not sure what info your dad was privy to. I would like to hear more about this research you have done. PM me if you want.


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

No need to do the PM, I'll tell you right now, last year he brought this huge book home that have specific info on draw results for every area and tag and how many of each point criteria drew, I then simply logged the totals across the board for 50 random areas and tags for the last 3 years. Other than max point holders, there was no consistency at all with higher point holders, infact in many circumstances the bottom half prevailed over the top. If that isn't research than tell me what is. Anyone can go to their local DWR office and check out this specific draw info book. I am thinking of doing an even more in depth study and putting something together like a spreadsheet for a rack meeting.


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

I also would like to see the research you've done. PM me if you wouldn't mind. It does make me want to start pulling up some spreadsheets to look at it more closely.


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

Further more after my research mind you this was 3 years ago, I emailed the Division about my findings, they told me they couldn't explain my findings. And left it at that.


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## Raptorman (Aug 18, 2009)

No need to look at any book, just look at this site and you can see the same thing. 
http://www.biggamedrawodds.com/big.game.draw.odds.utah.html


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## Roadlesshunter (Mar 2, 2012)

Chew on this for a minute 5pointbull

SAN JUAN ARCHERY DEER 
Points---Applicants--Bonus-----Random-----------Total points------------Chance someone will----------Random Permit drawn
-----------------------Permit----- Permit------------In Group---------------Draw This group---------------

13 ------------2----------2----------0 
12 ------------9----------2----------0 ----------------- 91 ----------------------------- 6% 
11 -----------14----------0----------0 ---------------- 168 ---------------------------- 11% 
10 ------------6----------0----------0 ------------------66 ------------------------------ 4% 
9 ------------11----------0----------0 ------------------110 ---------------------------- 7% 
8 ------------11----------0----------0 ------------------99 ----------------------------- 6% 
7 ------------20----------0----------2 -----------------160 -----------------------------10% -------------------------------2
6 ------------27----------0----------0 ----------------- 189 -----------------------------12% 
5 ------------33----------0----------1 ------------------ 198 ---------------------------12% -------------------------------1
4 ------------25----------0----------1 ------------------ 125 --------------------------- 8% --------------------------------1
3 ------------45----------0----------1 ------------------- 180 --------------------------11% --------------------------------1
2 ------------35----------0----------0 --- ----------------105 ----------------------------7% 
1 ------------35----------0----------0 -------------------- 70 -----------------------------4% 
0 ------------29----------0----------0 --- -----------------29 ----------------------------2% 
Total--------302------------------------------------------ 1590---------------------------- 100% 
Total Applicants Total Points all Groups

San Juan Archery Deer.
If you look at the people that drew in the random Permits 2 had 7 points, 1 had 5 points, one had 4 points, and one had 3 points. All with 13 points drew and 2 with 12 drew bonus tags. that leaves 7 with 12 point in random. So (12+1)* 7 = 91 the rest of the groups are total applicants * points +1. I will do another unit with more tags. These number tell me they do use points on the random draw. The blue groups drew the red didn't.


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

Roadlesshunter said:


> Chew on this for a minute 5pointbull
> 
> SAN JUAN ARCHERY DEER
> Points Applicants Bonus Random
> ...


Could you put that in a Google Doc so we can see what you're seeing?


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

Put a random excel sheet together of 50 hunts and I'll buy into your thing, Raptorman that only shows Max Points to draw unless I missed something, the same with Hunterstrailhead.com, you can as far as I know get specific results from the big book.


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

I don't know why everyone's so pissed at me, I do a little science project 3 years ago and people want to treat my like Isaac Newton and throw me in prison and throw away the key;-)


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

5pointbull said:


> I don't know why everyone's so pissed at me, I do a little science project 3 years ago and people want to treat my like Isaac Newton and throw me in prison and throw away the key;-)


Not sure who you're referring too, but I'm not pissed. Just curious/interested/intrigued.


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## Roadlesshunter (Mar 2, 2012)

I am not mad, I have looked into this and it seems to me they use points in the random draw. I have done lots of sheets like the one above.

Henry Riffle up next just give me a minute to calculate. This is something to think about in the mean time. 

In a random draw with 1 tag

10 guys with 20 point each would have 210 points
1000 guys with 1 point each would have 2000 points

Chance that 1 of the 10 guys draws with 20 points = 210/2210 = 9.5 %
Chance that 1 of the 1000 guys draws with 1 points = 2000/2210 = 90.5 %

The chances are greater for the low numbers guys as a hole because they have more people in the draw and more total points.

Individual odds guys with 20 points 21/2210= 0.95%
Individual odds guys with 1 points 2/2210= 0.0905%

20 points has almost 1 percent chance 
1 point guy has 0.1 percent chance.


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## Dahlmer (Sep 12, 2007)

I'm curious. Did you do the experiment over a 5 or 10 year period, or was it limited to only 1 or 2 years. The randomness of the draw would not fall into line with expected results because of the limited number of tags, but over the course of a longer time period you should see a pattern begin to develop that would correlate with the expected results.


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## Roadlesshunter (Mar 2, 2012)

Henry Mountain Rifle 
Points---------------Applicants-----------------Bonus-------------Random----------------------------------Random Group -----------------Chance 1 will draw in this group ------------People that drew 
-------------------------------------Permit--------Permit-------------------------points in draw

18----------------------1------------------------1----------------------0----------------------------------- All Drew with 18 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------and 11 with 17 points
17----------------------26----------------------11--------------------0-------------------------------------------- 270---------------------- 0.66% 
16----------------------51----------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 867---------------------- 2.12% 
15----------------------57----------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 912 ----------------------2.23% 
14----------------------114---------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 1710---------------------- 4.18% 
13----------------------186---------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 2604---------------------- 6.37% 
12----------------------264---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------3432---------------------- 8.40% 
11----------------------286---------------------0----------------------4-------------------------------------------- 3432---------------------- 8.40%-------------------------------- 4 
10----------------------314---------------------0----------------------3 --------------------------------------------3454---------------------- 8.45% --------------------------------3 
9------------------------352---------------------0----------------------1 --------------------------------------------3520---------------------- 8.61% --------------------------------1 
8------------------------349---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------3141---------------------- 7.69% 
7------------------------372---------------------0----------------------1 --------------------------------------------2976---------------------- 7.28% --------------------------------1 
6------------------------400---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------2800---------------------- 6.85%
5------------------------441---------------------0----------------------1-------------------------------------------- 2646---------------------- 6.47% 
4------------------------521---------------------0----------------------1 --------------------------------------------2605---------------------- 6.37% --------------------------------1 
3------------------------590---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------2360---------------------- 5.77% --------------------------------1 
2------------------------662---------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 1986---------------------- 4.86% 
1------------------------700---------------------0----------------------1 --------------------------------------------1400-----------------------3.43% --------------------------------1 
0------------------------753---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------753------------------------ 1.84% 
*TOTALS------------* *6439* --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *40868* ----------------------*100.00%* 

As you can see the higher numbers are hit more often. But with the randomness it still can hit a lower some times. In this case the guy with 1 point and in the 3.43 got luckier than normal.


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

No it was over a three year period but only 50 hunts, It was simple really, every point category got a mark for every drawn hunter and then I simply added them up. I wish I still had the exact numbers, but something crazy I remember stood out. 0 and 3 point holders torched the field in an abnormal amount of tags.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

There is no secret book. As linked, every hunt is posted and you can see how many points every single person had when they drew. The direct links to PDF's on the DWR Big Game page only have 2012 and 2013, but the data going back for years is publicly available for anyone that wants it. 

You shouldn't confuse someone disagreeing with you for someone being mad at you. I disagree with your assessment of the draw 100%. However, I'm not the least bit angry at you. I have no reason to be. 

One thing you are right about, though, is the chance that those with few points have a chance to draw keeps us all putting in for the draw.


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## Roadlesshunter (Mar 2, 2012)

I remember a few years back they came out an said that they forgot to use the points in the random draw. Not sure what year, but it has happened before.


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## swbuckmaster (Sep 14, 2007)

5pointbull
Your odds of drawing as a group are not better than drawing as a single. They combine your points and divide by two. 

So if one guy has 12 and one guy has 6 you get 9 chances at a low number.

If there are 10 tags and your not in the top pool you better have drawn the top 4 lowest numbers because if your low number is five you don't get the tag because you have two in your group and there is only five tags and four already drew. Your group gets passed up. Same thing if your in a group putting in the top bonus pool. 

You in fact have less chances at a tag going in as a group.


Your odds always go up applying separate.


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

I didn't say secret book, there is a big book that all DWR offices have that have this info, infact if someone wants to make a wager I will gladly meet them at the norther office and show them, if it has been posted on line I don't know about it I did my little experiment 3 years ago. But I know they have to keep a printed version. Loved being called a liar!


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

5pointbull said:


> Put a random excel sheet together of 50 hunts and I'll buy into your thing, Raptorman that only shows Max Points to draw unless I missed something, the same with Hunterstrailhead.com, you can as far as I know get specific results from the big book.


Here ya go, This site shows it best:

http://www.neverstophunting.com/DrawOdds2013/elk.php


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## Roadlesshunter (Mar 2, 2012)

That's why my family stopped putting in as a group long ago. We put in separate and when one draws we all go on the trip.


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

Will someone please show me a site with specific draw counts per point stats, because I'll I'm seeing is max point stats still? That's what the big book showed, I have to say I did not take into account each applicant just how many drew for each category, it does make sense that if there are 200 zero point holders and 10 20 point holders that the two would equal tags drawn. But all I did was a simple run through the book. But I won't stand being called a liar, give me some credit for trying to better it, the system should be detailed in the hunting guide books each season. I want to see someone who has the time do a detailed spread sheet on the matter. Even I drew a bear tag last year with low points.


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

goofy elk said:


> Here ya go, This site shows it best:
> 
> http://www.neverstophunting.com/DrawOdds2013/elk.php


5 point this is it for elk last year. It is not just for max points.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

That site shows all LE and OIAL hunts for last year.....

Progressive point percent chance of drawing, Zero thru max .... pretty strait up.


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

Yes, but it shows a percentage, i think people should see a percentage, and specific #s if 10 people drew a tag with 4 points and zero drew a tag with 5. Than in reality for that specific year you had a better percentage, the percentage for the given year should reflect that #. Just saying.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

5pointbull said:


> Yes, but it shows a percentage, i think people should see a percentage, and specific #s if 10 people drew a tag with 4 points and zero drew a tag with 5. Than in reality for that specific year you had a better percentage, the percentage for the given year should reflect that #. Just saying.


I don't think that ten guys with 4 points and no guys with five points drawing a tag is a result of the 4 point guys having a better percent chance drawing. That just happens to be the way the lottery worked out in that particular year.
If I had four points and was in the same point group as the ten that drew tags was my percent chance of drawing increased simply by being in the same point pool as them... I would say no.


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

If you flip a coin three times and it comes up tails three times in a row the fourth flip still has a 50-50 chance of coming up tails. 

No different than 4 guys with 5 points each having a 5% chance of drawing a tag. If three guys draw that tag the fifth person still has a 5% of drawing the tag. The odds are still 20:1 for that given year. The next year the odds could go up or down depending upon how many people put in for that tag.

Last year a person had better odds drawing the Beaver East Premium Elk tag with 15 points than they had drawing the Beaver East Any Weapon tag


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

The fact is maybe my little research is semi crude, but it was research none the less. And showing detailed draw info as to who drew cannot hurt. The fact that the bonus point system is not explained from the DWR at least in detail (please post a link if there is one) is alarming, and leads one to wonder what is worth hiding on it. I have not lied one bit about what I've said. There is a book, there is sources in official positions gave info, I did conduct a simple research project, and I did email the division. I even had my boss who's in the state legislature look into it, I will not say what transpired from his phone calls, as I enjoy my job. I wish I could do a detailed study, but time doesn't permit it right now. I just thought I would share awareness of what I find because if it does have merit I think it should be addressed. There are many things that are alarming with this state and it's wildlife. Like the power of non state wildlife Mafia entities influencing the DWR, the influence of cattleman, sheep ranchers on wildlife populations. But that's for another day after I can effectively remove myself from this forums hate list with its members;-)


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

FWIW, I've done some research on this issue (among others) and here's what I found. Per the designated dated proclamations, the bonus point system started in 1993 and the draws at that time were being done by the division. but in 1996 the draws were contracted out to Systems Consultants of Fallon NV (446 W Williams). In 1998 the 50%/50% rule started and in 2001, the draws were contracted out to Utah Wildlife Administrative Services (185 N Maine St, Fallon), which is a subsidiary of Systems Consultants that only does the Utah draws. So, at least since 1996, the division has not done the draws so any information gleaned from DWR employees since then has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Also, FWIW, last year I GRAMA'ed a copy of the current contract DWR has with Utah Wildlife Administrative Services and it states on page 6 of the Big Game/Dedicated Hunter Statement of Work (following the 50% top bonus point draw):

"For the main drawing, applications are separated for residents and nonresidents. Individual applications that are not in a group will be treated as belonging to a group of "one". Applicant groups who participated in the first pass will receive a new second set of random draw numbers, one random draw number for the application, and a number for each bonus point. The lowest random draw number from this assignment is retained and replaces their previously assigned draw number."

It goes on to describe the draw sequence, but that is a different issue than this thread.

I know we hear a lot of different things, but I, for one, like to go to the source!

Edited: The big book? If it's the one I'm thinking about, it's the annual "Bucks, Bulls and Once-In-A-Lifetime Bonus Point Results and Drawing Success" spiral bound book that anyone can buy from any division office for $28.00. (I have 3 of them.)

Edited again: No bonus points (or preference points) are lost because of inactivity. You keep your points for life whether or not you ever apply again. (It least that's the current law.)


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

5point, nobody is pissed at you and nobody is calling you a liar. You are asking for links on how many drew with each amount of points, here you go...straight off DWR website:

Elk 2013: https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2013/13_elk.pdf
Elk 2012: https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/12_elk.pdf

I'm not going to paste every link, but all your LE and OIL hunts are there and it isn't only the max point info. It is every point total, for every hunt.

Again, you're not a liar. I just disagree with your statement.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

5pointbull said:


> The fact is maybe my little research is semi crude, but it was research none the less. And showing detailed draw info as to who drew cannot hurt. The fact that the bonus point system is not explained from the DWR at least in detail (please post a link if there is one)


 http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting-in-utah/hunting-permits/684-how-bonus-and-preference-points-work


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Here is a link to check out on the bonus point system...Interesting what the first link is!

http://bit.ly/1f77EwC


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Here's a couple of charts relating only to the limited entry elk drawing:

The first is the total number of applicants compared to the total number of "random numbers" (RNs) generated for all applicants within that point group. What do we learn/notice... based simply off the quantity of RNs generated per each group the lion share of regular tags would go to pont groups 6 thru 12 (I arbitratily selected those because they had a total number of RNs greater than 20k). Point groups 1 & 16 are roughly equivalent. As are 2 & 15, 3 & 14... match them up just like you would your March Madness bracket! Basically, a guy (any guy) in the 1 point pool has the same chance at receiving a low RN as a guy (any guy) in the 16 point pool.

The second chart is the number of bonus tags drawn compared to the number of regular tags (or lottery tags) drawn. This one is interesting to me. It does show that comparatively speaking a larger number of regular tags are won by guys in the point groups 2 thru 5 (again arbitrairly selected those groups as the number of tags won was greater than 100). This could largely be simply due to the volume of applicants within those point groups. But you can clearly see the pendulum swing as the number of bonus tags awarded increases towards the higher point groups, with 14 points far and away resulting in the highest number of bonus tags being awarded. An interesting additional look would be to see what similar charts like this would look like for each weapon type instead of viewing the entire species as a whole, but I think you can see a couple spikes in the bonus tag allocations that directly equate to the weapon choice. Notice the spike in bonus tags at 6... direct correlation to archery, spike at 11 perhaps a direct correlation to muzzlelaoder, and spike at 14 perhaps correlating to rifle hunts??? Who knows... I'm purely speculating here.

The third chart is the total number of applicants compared to the total number of tags drawn. Notice the scale, I changed it to logarithmic scale, which changes the y-axis to each reference line being a factor of 10 instead of a set equal interval. You'll notice that as the number of applicants per point pool steadily declines the number of tags won within that pool remains visually equal, in my mind proving the randomness of the drawing


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## torowy (Jun 19, 2008)

Nice work


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

Very good work on the graphs! I would be interested to see each hunt broken out this way. I bet it would look generally the same.

Can you explain this thought in more detail?



derekp1999 said:


> Basically, a guy (any guy) in the 1 point pool has the same chance at receiving a low RN as a guy (any guy) in the 16 point pool.


I see that the 1 and 16 point pools generate roughly the same number of RNs, but the 16 point pool guys have 16 more numbers than the 1 point guys right? Isn't that 78/646 = 12% for 16 pointers, versus 102/5405 = 1.9% for the 1 pointers?

I know you've got a point in there, I'm just having trouble grasping it right now.

Edit: I see now that bonus tags were included in the last graph so that kind of invalidates my line of thinking.

What does the last graph look like when you show only regular tags?


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

derekp1999 is my hero! Your skills on the excel and graphs and putting it out there to be easy to understand is stellar. You should do a training so I can learn how to pull this crap off. 

Seriously...impressive stuff!


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

nocturnalenemy said:


> Can you explain this thought in more detail?
> 
> I see that the 1 and 16 point pools generate roughly the same number of RNs, but the 16 point pool guys have 16 more numbers than the 1 point guys right? Isn't that 78/646 = 12% for 16 pointers, versus 102/5405 = 1.9% for the 1 pointers?
> 
> I know you've got a point in there, I'm just having trouble grasping it right now.


The thinking is a bit convoluted, but here it goes...
The one point pool contains 5,405 applicants (I should put a disclaimer there that this number also includes those who applied only for the bonus point). For those 5405 applicatns 10,810 random numbers are issued.
The 16 point pool contains 524 applicants who were issued 10,982 random numbers.
You are correct in your rationale that the guy with 16 points has an increased chance... but his increased chance is at recieving a lower number, not a tag... at least not yet.
Once random numbers are drawn, the lowest random number for each applicant is retained and that is the number that determines drawing order.
So now who has the advantage??? The 524 16 point guys entering the drawing with their lowest 524 random numbers, or the 5405 1 point guys with their lowest 5405 random numbers???
Although the 16 point guys do have the advantage in terms of the number of randowm numbers each applicant is issued, once all numbers are thrown out other than the lowest, the sheer number of applicants in the lower point pools sways the odds back.
This logic applies only to a point group as a whole & not to an individual within the point group. An individual with 16 points has the advantage over the individual with 1 point.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

nocturnalenemy said:


> What does the last graph look like when you show only regular tags?


Here's for both regular tags and bonus tags only compared to the total number of applicants.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

derekp1999 said:


> Here's for both regular tags and bonus tags only compared to the total number of applicants.


There was a typo on the Bonus Tags chart... I had 11 tags for the 13 point group & it should be 111. Here's the corrected.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Just for kicks and giggles... here's the same series of charts for limited entry deer.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

Boy, did this thread take a turn !!!

Great job with the graphs, visual aids help to explain complicated theories. It really does appear that for several reasons (# of applicants in any given point pool, and # of tags being given on any given year among others...) your odds to draw do fluctuate pretty heavily, regardless of points up until you hit "max" points.

It is this "possibility" and the desire to hit "max" that keeps all of us buying points. I do not understand why people that did not put in for the hunt and instead just bought a bonus point are factored in to the calculation under the 0 point group though.

I also do not fully understand the difference between Bonus Tags and Regular Tags...I mean, aren't all of the tags for a specific hunt factored in to the drawing? Why do we call them Bonus? A tag is a tag...


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

KineKilla said:


> I do not understand why people that did not put in for the hunt and instead just bought a bonus point are factored in to the calculation under the 0 point group though.
> 
> I also do not fully understand the difference between Bonus Tags and Regular Tags...I mean, aren't all of the tags for a specific hunt factored in to the drawing? Why do we call them Bonus? A tag is a tag...


That's just how I punched it in to Excel... I included the folks that just bought a bonus point in all the point groups (not just the 0 point group) as a more complete picture of the total point group size. It still does not include all those with points but did not apply this year, so I acknowkedge that it is both incomplete and flawed in that regard. There's a separate report out that details it... I just didn't download it.

The difference between regular and bonus tags is this... if a unit offers 70 total tags for a hunt then 50% of them are reserved for those with the highest number of points, so 35 tags would be awarded to those with the most points of the applicants for that particular unit. The remaining 50%, or 35 tags, are then be awarded through the random number drawing/lottery system where all remaining applicants get their shot at winning a tag.

My apologies for the hijack, KineKilla.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

Ok, so the "Bonus Tags" are what? The 50% set aside for top point holders? They are all tags to me, wonder why they name them differently?

No apologies necessary for the hijack...this is exactly what I was after. An explanation as to why it appears that the middle or bottom of the group draw as many or more tags than the others...the reason appears to be just that. Strength in numbers. More people applying in those point groups = more tags being drawn in those point groups.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Yes, the bonus tags are those reserved for those with the highest points. The regular tags are those that are obtained by those with lower points through the lottery.
Going back to your original post regarding the early Manti, attached is the drawing report from 2013. This is exactly what the DWR calls them... bonus and regular tags & there is a separate column for each outlining how each tag was awarded. Other people, including myself, may call the bonus tags "guaranteed tags" or something similar and may call the regular tags "lottery tags" or something similar.

Also be careful with the phrase "max points pool." Some may use the term referring to the system as a whole, which would mean the absolute max number of points one could have... which at this point in time is 21 points. Others may use the term referring to the number of points that would result in a bonus tag for a specific unit. For example, the Manti that is attached, a guy may say that with points greater than, say 14, he would expect to be in the "max point pool" for that unit.


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## elkfromabove (Apr 20, 2008)

KineKilla said:


> Ok, so the "Bonus Tags" are what? The 50% set aside for top point holders? They are all tags to me, wonder why they name them differently?


 They name them differently because they are in a separate draw than the regular tags. They are drawn before the regular draw.


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## fishspook (Sep 21, 2007)

Okay. It has taken some work (I hope I don't get fired), but I have some statistical evaluation of the claims that I've read here.
The first is that after the bonus permits are issued to the applicants with the highest point totals, the other permits are drawn at random, and the number of points that an applicant has makes no difference. Part of this theory includes the notion that the DWR is fixing the draw this way to generate more money; hence, I'll call it the "conspiracy theory".
The other claim, I'll call the "Statutory Rules Theory". It suggests that even after the bonus permits are issued to the applicants with the highest point totals, having more points increases the likelihood that a regular permit will be drawn.
Now, I hope to not be banned from the hunting community by including linear regression analysis to these questions, but here we go. Truth is, I'm in my 30's and I've never taken a big game animal. I'm new to hunting, but I'm captivated by it.
So here is a scatter plot testing the "Conspiracy Theory" and a scatter plot testing the "Statutory Rules Theory". 
The data here is comprised only of the 2013 LE Archery Elk Hunts. This type of statistical analysis never gives certainty, but it demonstrates a very compelling arguement that last year for the LE Archery Elk hunts, it is much more likely that the Statutory Rules Theory was used than the Conspiracy Theory. Simply put, even after the 50% of tags that go to the applicants with the most points, each additional point increases your probability of drawing a tag.


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## fishspook (Sep 21, 2007)

I'm having a hard time getting the charts up. Let's try this:


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## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

Careful There Fishspook!
Using math, reason, and logic will get you in trouble around these parts. Conspiracy theories are a lot more fun. Powerful money men in back room dealings are the reason I can't draw an elk tag--swear to gawd it is! You disagree with that 'Mister' and you better put up your dukes!--callin me a LIAR is fightin words!


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

Looks pretty cut and dry. 
What's your R-squared correlation on each?


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## fishspook (Sep 21, 2007)

Airborne said:


> Careful There Fishspook!
> Using math, reason, and logic will get you in trouble around these parts. Conspiracy theories are a lot more fun. Powerful money men in back room dealings are the reason I can't draw an elk tag--swear to gawd it is! You disagree with that 'Mister' and you better put up your dukes!--callin me a LIAR is fightin words!


 Good stuff Airborne! But remember, there is a big difference between calling you a liar, and saying that the data makes a very strong arguement that what you are saying is not true. It's call passive aggression.


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

I disagree......You called him a liar.


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## fishspook (Sep 21, 2007)

nocturnalenemy said:


> Looks pretty cut and dry.
> What's your R-squared correlation on each?


Let's see, I think the R-squareds are: Conspiracy Theory= .4979 and Statutory Rules= .8288

I'm no expert on that piece, other than to say that I think the closer to 1, means the data is more predictive. Is that correct, nocurnalenemy?


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## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

That is correct fishspook--closer to 1 implies predictability.

You call me a LIAR one more time and it's fisticuffs at the flagpole at 3PM! Prepare to be whooped or some such thingy :grin:


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

fishspook said:


> Let's see, I think the R-squareds are: Conspiracy Theory= .4979 and Statutory Rules= .8288
> 
> I'm no expert on that piece, other than to say that I think the closer to 1, means the data is more predictive. Is that correct, nocurnalenemy?


Correct. It quantifies how well the data fits the resulting line equation. Do you mind sharing your spreadsheet?


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## torowy (Jun 19, 2008)

.82 is pretty good, you convinced me. I can trust the government.... oh wait.


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## fishspook (Sep 21, 2007)

nocturnalenemy said:


> Correct. It quantifies how well the data fits the resulting line equation. Do you mind sharing your spreadsheet?


Sure. PM me your email address and I'll send it to you. Hopefully you can help me find the flaw. I would think that with that much data, the slope of my trendline would be closer to 1. I'm struggling to figure out how to apply the the concept of the lowest ticket. Right now it is using more of an "incrementally increasing ping pong ball in the barrel" approach (very technical statisitics term).


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

Seems to me that both derekp and fishspook are right ... Derekp emphasizes that there are a lot of people in the pool with few points (or equivalently few RNs) whereas fishspook emphasizes the fact that due to more RNs, people with lots of points draw lower numbers. 

The relevant question -- maybe -- is by how much your odds increase per point increase across different units. 

Very illustrative, thank you, derekp and fishspook.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

SLCHunter said:


> The relevant question -- maybe -- is by how much your odds increase per point increase across different units.


Overall, from 2013's drawing results there were 40,424 applicants for 2,552 total tags (1,225 were allocated as bonus tags & 1327 were allocated as regular tags). From the total sum of random numbers issued compared to the number of tags, each point could be said to be worth an increase of ~0.995%.
If you consider a specific unit... say the Central Mountains, Manti unit from the OP... your points have different values based upon the weapon selection:
for an archery tag every point you have is worth ~3.78% 
early rifle ~0.43%
late rifle ~1.74%
muzzleloader ~1.21% 
In the attached picture you can see how those percentages and how your chances increase as your points increase. Your chances increase at a much faster rate for the archery hunt compared to the early rifle... but your chances do improve with each point you have.

Lesser, more undesireable units have a very high "point value," for example the Cache, North archery unit each point is worth ~21.62%. The top tier units have a very low "point value," like the early rifle Monroe unit at ~0.04% per point.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

derekp1999 said:


> Overall, from 2013's drawing results there were 40,424 applicants for 2,552 total tags (1,225 were allocated as bonus tags & 1327 were allocated as regular tags). From the total sum of random numbers issued compared to the number of tags, each point could be said to be worth an increase of ~0.995%.
> If you consider a specific unit... say the Central Mountains, Manti unit from the OP... your points have different values based upon the weapon selection:
> for an archery tag every point you have is worth ~3.78%
> early rifle ~0.43%
> ...


This gets my vote for Post of the Year! (Granted it is only March...)


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## 5pointbull (Mar 4, 2014)

Just realized something as to why many low point applicants are drawing tags. I've heard 20% of tags go to youth applicants. If that is the case, than there will be a lot of 0-3 point holders draw tags. Does anyone know of this is true?


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## swbuckmaster (Sep 14, 2007)

The youth don't get LE tags easier than anyone else. What you heard is incorrect.

Youth only get tags in the general deer drawing.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

swbuckmaster said:


> The youth don't get LE tags easier than anyone else. What you heard is incorrect.
> 
> Youth only get tags in the general deer drawing.


I've heard youth also get some antlerless tag allocations.
I haven't heard anything or seen any numbers that would lead me to believe they get any preference for the LE tags & they are further "punished" by not being able to apply for LE/OIAL until 14 years old anyway.


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## Chukarute (Jan 10, 2014)

derekp1999 said:


> That's just how I punched it in to Excel... I included the folks that just bought a bonus point in all the point groups (not just the 0 point group) as a more complete picture of the total point group size. It still does not include all those with points but did not apply this year, so I acknowkedge that it is both incomplete and flawed in that regard. There's a separate report out that details it... I just didn't download it.
> 
> *The difference between regular and bonus tags is this... if a unit offers 70 total tags for a hunt then 50% of them are reserved for those with the highest number of points, so 35 tags would be awarded to those with the most points of the applicants for that particular unit. The remaining 50%, or 35 tags, are then be awarded through the random number drawing/lottery system where all remaining applicants get their shot at winning a tag.
> *
> My apologies for the hijack, KineKilla.


 [emphasis added] Pardon my ignorance if already posted, but what is the threshold value for "those with the highest point?" Meaning, for any given unit, at what level within the point hierarchy would my application be pooled for the 50% reserved for bonus tags? From random inspection it seems like the top 3 to 5 highest bonus point categories are designated for bonus tags. Is there a defined standard in the policy? Great thread, by the way.


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## Dahlmer (Sep 12, 2007)

Chukarute said:


> [emphasis added] Pardon my ignorance if already posted, but what is the threshold value for "those with the highest point?" Meaning, for any given unit, at what level within the point hierarchy would my application be pooled for the 50% reserved for bonus tags? From random inspection it seems like the top 3 to 5 highest bonus point categories are designated for bonus tags. Is there a defined standard in the policy? Great thread, by the way.


50% of the tags issued for any given unit are designated bonus tags and reserved for those who hold maximum points for the particular unit/weapon being applied for.

If there were 100 tags for a given hunt then 50 would be reserved for a drawing held exclusively for those with maximum points.

If the appplicants looked like this:

Points Applicants
15...... 2
14 ......45
13 ......55
12 ......60
10 ......70
11 ......80
....

Then the bonus points would draw as follows:

1. Both applicants with 15 points would draw a bonus tag.
2. All applicants with 14 points would draw a bonus tag.
3. All applicants with 13 points would be placed into a drawing for the final three bonus tags.
4. The 52 applicants with 13 points that did not draw a bonus tag would then be entered into the regular permit drawing for the remaining 50 tags with all other applicants for that particular hunt.

For hard to draw units like the Henries, there may not be enough bonus tags to guarantee a tag for those who hold maximum points.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Chukarute said:


> [emphasis added] Pardon my ignorance if already posted, but what is the threshold value for "those with the highest point?" Meaning, for any given unit, at what level within the point hierarchy would my application be pooled for the 50% reserved for bonus tags? From random inspection it seems like the top 3 to 5 highest bonus point categories are designated for bonus tags. Is there a defined standard in the policy?


+1, Dahlmer

There is no set bonus point number, it depends entirely on the rest of the applicants for that particular unit. It changes year to year based upon the applicant pool. For some units the bonus tags are allocated across the top several bonus point pools, but in other units there are not enough tags to satisfy those in just the top group. 
This is where the DWR reports are valuable, you can research which bonus point groups got bonus tags last year (and previous years) and can attempt to predict where the bonus tags will be taken this year.

Quick, generic example to demonstrate the fluidity of the system:

Unit A drew bonus tags in 2012 at 14 points... but there were some monster creatures that were taken off that unit. More guys with a high number of points decide to put in for this unit in 2013 and it shifted the "bonus pool" up to 17 points.

On the other hand, Unit B drew bonus tags in 2012 at 11 points but post season reports hinted that quality has really headed for the toilet. So high point guys decided to switch units looking for higher quality animals. The exodus of high point applicants results in bonus tags being allocated to guys with 7 points.
It's an absolutely fluid system that depends on how each individual applies and it changes every year. We sit here and plug numbers into spreadsheets trying to find any trend that we think will help us... but we don't know anything until the results are posted.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

I got looking into the "value of a point" a little bit more... I guess you could say that curiosity is getting the best of me so I went back several years to see just how the value of a point has diminished as one would assume it would with the point creep being an ever present evil nowadays. I have DWR reports dating back to 2007 excluding 2010 & 2011 (not sure where they ran off to... maybe they're off shed hunting together). By "value of a point" I mean by how much it increases your chances by providing an additional random number in the drawing. There's no fancy statistics here, I just summed the the total number of random numbers issued to all applicants, did 1/total random numbers, and multiplied that by the number of regular tags available each year.

For limited entry elk the value of a bonus point overall was/is:
2007... 0.89%
2008... 0.99%
2009... 1.05%
2012... 1.05%
2013... 0.99%
Surprising to me that over the course of the last several years the value of an elk point has remained relatively stable... pretty good investment in today's economy!

For limited entry deer the value of a bonus point overall was/is:
2007... 1.24%
2008... 1.18%
2009... 1.19%
2012... 0.87%
2013... 0.71%
Pretty steep decline in value (43%) since 2007... much like my 401(k).

And since I'm in the moose pool, the value of a moose bonus point was/is:
2007... 0.211%
2008... 0.226%
2009... 0.188%
2012... 0.090%
2013... 0.071%
WOW!!! A 73% decline for each moose point over this time period! If this were an actual investmentl... get out as fast you can!


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## Chukarute (Jan 10, 2014)

Makes perfect sense- I see now the fundamental error in my premise to my question. Thanks to both of you for the great explanation.

...I knew I should have researched it more before posting ;-).


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

research is all fine and dandy but sometimes a simple question is all that it takes. There are a lot of guys on this site that spend the better part of their days researching this stuff.


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## SLCHunter (Dec 19, 2013)

derekp1999 said:


> From the total sum of random numbers issued compared to the number of tags, each point could be said to be worth an increase of ~0.995%.


Great stuff!! 
I suppose that these results line up with most people's intuition: Collect points until it can matter for the quality units ... and your odds increase, albeit slowly.


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## swbuckmaster (Sep 14, 2007)

No one has said why last names starting with W's don't draw low numbers and then dont draw tags. This is where the system is rigged!
I have a full 13 years of archery deer points to prove it lol.


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