# BYU Loss - This time in a conference room



## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

So the Big 12 voted and decided not to expand, and they won't until 2025. From the sound of things, the TV networks put the forks in the expansion. Turns out, there is a clause in the TV contracts that if the Big 12 expands, then FOX and ESPN have to ante up another $25M/year for each team that they add. So if they added two teams, then FOX and ESPN would have to kick half a billion dollars to the conference. Sounds great at first, but the current schools would have to kick that to the expansion schools, so there wouldn't be any net gain to any member schools. Plus, it pisses off FOX and ESPN for having to give up half a billion dollars to add two teams that certainly aren't going to bring an increase in television value to approach that number. So the only smart thing from the money perspective is to not upset the apple cart. And the casualties from it are BYU, Houston, Southern Florida, and Cincinnati. 

So at this point, this leaves BYU as the odd man out of any conference. Lots of options out there.

- Stay independent as a wannabe - play half a dozen good teams each year, and half a dozen dogs. But control their own message, won't compete for a national championship, but will have an entertaining product.

- Drop down to the MWC again. MWC gained national respect when TCU, Utah, and BYU were all ranked. But now the best school is Boise State. Schedule would be 8-9 dogs, and 3-4 decent B5 games/year. Would have a better shot at a New Years Day bowl, but still no chance at a national championship.

- Drop sports all together. This LGBT thing isn't going away any time soon. And I fear that the NCAA will assert that if BYU continues to discriminate, then they can't play. And at that point, BYU will have to change their policy regarding LGBT, or drop sports. 

- Join some other B5 conference. Not gonna happen. If Pac 12 expands, it will be with Texas and OU. SEC is out. Big 10 would be second most probable, but they are a stretch going as far west as Nebraska. Not a fit. And the ACC - well, BYU isn't on the Atlantic Coast. So Big 12 is really the only B5 option for BYU. And that won't happen. Unless you grasp to some kind of unrealistic dream of something in 2025 when the TV contracts get renegotiated. 

My own thought is that they stay put with independence in football, and West Church Conference in other sports. I'd rather see six good football opponents/year, than 3. And I am also realistic enough to see that B5 conference or not, BYU really doesn't have a shot at a national championship any more than Washington State, Iowa State, or Vanderbilt. And if the powers that be just admit that, then be content putting out an entertaining team, and accept it for what it is. 

Thoughts?


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

From what I have read many experts predict 4 super conferences in a few years. I think staying independent is probably their best shot at getting in when that happens. If I was BYU I would schedule Notre Dame in every sport I can every year, that will give some much needed national exposure for when that happens...and it's two independents.

By the way, next year BYU opens up against LSU in football on opening weekend in Houston...see you there!!!!


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

Notre Dame is an interesting deal. They are now more ACC than anything else. They have a contract to play 6 ACC teams every year in Football, and then all of their other sports are now part of the ACC. So really, they are much closer to being in a conference than most people realize. And as it stands, BYU is on TV as much as Notre Dame at this point. The big difference is ND is there saturday afternoons, on broadcast TV, and BYU is getting late night games on ESPN. 4 Super conferences may be a thing. But 4 conferences of 16 teams each - where would BYU land? Not the Pac 12, that could add 4 schools. BYU isn't a research school, and they are a religious school - both are held against them by the Pac 12. SEC is already at 14 teams, and would add regional schools. Big 10 is already at 14 teams, and would pick up regional schools that may melt away from Big 12 - Iowa State, and Notre Dame if they can get them. ACC is also at 14 schools and would be more apt to take Notre Dame if they could, but more likely Cincinnati or Memphis or Central or Southern Florida. In any 4 super conference scenario, BYU is left out. Again. I really think the most realistic options are independence or drop sports all together.


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## Karl (Aug 14, 2016)

Lately BYU and U of U have both been playing really great.

They are both exciting to watch now.

Never thought I would ever be saying that about either one.

Thanks for the great analysis and insights into the "conference room" issues.

I am a Navy fan FWIW but I do enjoy when the local teams here beat the crap out of California universities.

And Mich State was a shocker of bliss.


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## bekins24 (Sep 22, 2015)

I think you're right on with your analysis Gary. BYU has already dropped sports from Idaho and Hawaii, I think that the potential 'benefit' from keeping the sports and gaining national exposure from those is minimal if they stay independent. I thought it was pretty funny to read from a couple BYU fans the salty comments about the Big 12 after they chose to expand. One guy even went so far to say that BYU didn't really want to join their conference anyway. hahaha some people.....


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

A few thoughts on this. (I'm a Ute fan FWIW)


1. Sincere condolences to all of those schools (including my other alma mater, Colorado St.) that were jacked around by the Big 12's dog and pony show. While what transpired yesterday was not surprising, these schools justifiably feel used right now. 

2. The Big 12 may have signed it own death warrant with this move. They will be the prime target for poaching members when the next round of expansion takes place. Based on the buffoonery that has occurred with how the conference has been run over the past decade, that fate is probably deserved. 

3. It is a hard call for what the cougs should do next. Staying Indy may allow a slightly better schedule (not always) but it will inevitably be front loaded and road heavy. Getting quality home dates will be sometimes problematic. I would imagine cougarfans have had fun this year with the good schedule and lots of exciting games, but how much interest will remain in 3 weeks, when the faithful are trekking to SUU, Umess, and a bad Utah st. to close the season and your bowl destination is already known. 

Going back to the MWC or elsewhere will result in fewer P5 games most of the time, but there will be sustained interest through the entire season and a goal of a conference championship to shoot for. There also will be meaningful home games at the end of the season. A lot can be said for that. Plus, if the Big 12 implodes, as many predict, it could leave a decent new conference that will emerge from the wreckage, combined with the best of the MWC and elsewhere that they may join.

4. The LGBT and honor code thing is not going away and there is evidence that the NCAA is becoming more activist in forcing a liberal agenda. If push comes to shove, the LDS church may have to make a decision about playing NCAA sports or not changing the honor code. I would trust the leaders would pick the honor code over jocks. I envision at least even odds that BYU will cease major college athletics within 10 years. 

That said, I have read a couple of thoughtful pieces that suggest ways the language of the honor code could be changed so as to make it more palatable for decision makers and not take away from what the honor code tries to espouse.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

I think the Big 12 wasn't in the driver's seat on this thing though. I think that when they started talking expansion, the networks freaked out. Because of the contract, they would have had to come up with $250 million for each team added. That is some serious jack. And none of the teams would provide anything approaching that in revenues. It really is all about the money and nothing else. Adding any more teams doesn't give ESPN any new content, since they already have contracts with the AAC, MWC, and BYU. So giving that money to the Big 12 to broadcast BYU games gets the same content they are getting now, and 4X the price. There is all kinds of talk about getting into the CFP, but that isn't where the big money is. Sure, that is big money for the NCAA and the corporate entity that is the CFP, but only four teams go. And ESPN doesn't really care which four, because people will watch regardless. But the big money is in the season long contracts with the conferences. The current Big 12 schools had nothing to really gain by expanding, and their partner networks would lose money if the Big 12 expanded, so there is no reason to expand. 

As a True Blue Cougar alum, the Big 12 was our only hope of being in a Big 5 conference. This closes the door on that. At least until 2025. I think staying independent is still better than the MWC. They are playing half the MWC anyway, so really, what is to gain? They are getting contracts to the same bowl games as the MWC, but they are also getting at least half their schedule as pretty good games. Sure, the home schedule isn't that great, but it isn't any better than it would be in the MWC. But for a nationwide fan base, it is great fun to have games in Phoenix, Lincoln, Los Angeles, East Lansing, Washington, D.C., Houston, or wherever else. Local fans will grumble about watching UMass and SUU, but they grumble anyway and long for the days when Jim McMahon was chewing tobacco on the field and Norm Chow was running the draw trap on every first down. Thing is, they grumbled then about the very same things they long for now. So let the local fans grumble. Nothing will change that. 

As for now, we are watching the best running back to come through BYU. Williams is explosive, powerful, and fun to watch. Enjoy it while we can. Enjoy the now CougarFans. Because in 15 years, there will be apartments where stadium sits, and a plaque on a rock by a Cougar statue telling the story of what once was.


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

GaryFish said:


> I think the Big 12 wasn't in the driver's seat on this thing though. I think that when they started talking expansion, the networks freaked out.


Maybe, maybe not. I have heard that the expansion talk was a power play by the big 12 to extract better terms from the networks. It is likely that only the networks and the big 12 folks know for sure, and I doubt they are going to tell us much.


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## Karl (Aug 14, 2016)

As the Hershey Bar Road gets more and more crowded, running a university is going to get more and more complicated for a church.

As the Roman Church eventually secularized most if not all Her own universities, I think the Salt Lake Church is likely to have to consider doing the same.

In the meantime, go Navy! Beat Army!


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