# Mt Dutton 2016 Draw Odds



## wixxman (Jul 23, 2008)

Need a little help. I have been on the Utah Fish & Game site and found results for the 2015 Mt Dutton archery hunt. It show how many tags (non-resident) that were available and how may people applied. Looking for info on how many points it took the 12 lucky ones to draw and the 25 that did not (me included) how many points they have. I think our group is a shoe in with 2 points this year, but you never know. Anyone know of a site that has better information than fish and game site?
Thanks


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

How many are in your group? If there are 4 in your group and only 3 permits you won't get it.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Also what are you hunting, deer or elk?

I am presuming elk.


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## snw_brdr10 (May 20, 2014)

If you are talking about elk, there were 3 non-resident tags. 70 people applied for them. Here is the rundown of every applicant and the amount of points they had. Go to page 169, hunt 3012.

http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2015/15_big_game_odds_report.pdf

Statistically speaking, with 2 points, you have a 1.7% chance of drawing it in 2016.


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

A fellow forum member compiled the best draw odds summary I've found. I plug his site every chance I get.

http://utahbiggameodds.blogspot.com/


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## for fun (Sep 13, 2007)

If its general deer here ya go to page 12.
http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2015/15_general_deer.pdf


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Looks to me to be general archery deer: 12 tags available... 37 applicants (therefore 25 unsuccessful as mentioned in the original post)

There was one applicant with 2 points and was awarded a tag.
There were 19 applicants with 1 point, 11 were awarded a tag and 6 were unsuccessful.
There were 17 applicants with 0 points, all were unsuccessful.

If you have 2 points, you are correct that you and your group should be "a shoe in"... keep in mind the application process is fluid and things change year to year. Applying as a group can complicate things as well, if you have a group of 4 you need to hope that there are at least 4 tags still available when your number comes up. I recommend individual applications but if going in as a group is what everybody wants you always run the risk of running out of tags before it's your turn.
We should have a much clearer picture in May when the number of tags will be finalized by the Wildlife Board, but as of right now I don't think it would hurt to start making plans. Have fun and enjoy your hunt.



nocturnalenemy said:


> A fellow forum member compiled the best draw odds summary I've found. I plug his site every chance I get.
> http://utahbiggameodds.blogspot.com/


Nocturnal, you are too kind.


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## wixxman (Jul 23, 2008)

Thanks for all the replies!!!
There are 3 of us with 2 points. We are planning hunting deer and will probably put in for the late season rifle cow hunts if we draw deer tags. The quirk in Utah's regulations is we can use the cow tag during the archer deer season. Have done this in the past. We are leaning towards putting in as a group as we are from California. 
Wixxman


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

If you're hunting archery, no need to apply for late season cow tags unless you want to come back for rifle season. You can just buy an archery elk tag OTC and guarantee the tag.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

nocturnalenemy said:


> A fellow forum member compiled the best draw odds summary I've found. I plug his site every chance I get.
> 
> http://utahbiggameodds.blogspot.com/


I like the site but why do we need to sign up for a Google account to get the spread sheet?


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## nelsonccc (Jul 8, 2014)

http://utahbiggameodds.blogspot.com/ is a great site but it seems that last year there was some talk about another website what helped a hunter figure out his odds and strategies. I think it was http://www.hunterstrailhead.com/ but I'm not sure.

It seems like I need help figuring out the odds. I thought I was a shoe in for GS deer in utah last year and didn't get anything. Same thing for cow elk in nevada. Not sure what I'm doing wrong so looking for a website that will help me understand the odds.

Here's my situation, if I go to Utahbiggameodds and enter my info I get the attached picture. It appears I have a 100% chance of pulling a GS deer tag for one of my three preferred units, Pine, Panguitch, or Plateau. However if you look at the draw results for 2015 it looks like I'm with the other 82 applicants from last year who now have two points plus the 17 people who had two points last year who now have three points. So if I understand correctly 50% of the 56 (28tags) tags go to the top point holders and the rest go to all of us. So 17 of the 28 get a tag for sure. Then the remaining of the first group of 50% tags go the 2 point group. So 11 of the 82 are guaranteed a tag. RIGHT? The the left over 28 tags from the 2nd 50% get drawn out for all remaining.

So it would appear I don't really have a 100% chance at a GS deer tag. I absolutely want to hunt GS deer this year so I have to make sure I pick a unit that I KNOW I will get a tag in.

Hopefully someone smarter than me can verify or explain what I'm doing wrong.


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## nocturnalenemy (Jun 26, 2011)

nelsonccc said:


> So if I understand correctly 50% of the 56 (28tags) tags go to the top point holders and the rest go to all of us. So 17 of the 28 get a tag for sure. Then the remaining of the first group of 50% tags go the 2 point group. So 11 of the 82 are guaranteed a tag. RIGHT? The the left over 28 tags from the 2nd 50% get drawn out for all remaining.


GS deer tags do not use the 50% bonus/50% random rule. These are preference points. All tags go to those with the most points.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Nelson, as nocturnal pointed out the general season deer drawing is a preference point drawing not a bonus point drawing. In a preference point draw 100% of the tags go to the applicants with the highest points.

It looks like there's a glitch in the spreadsheet that is currently linked to the website. Here's a screenshot from my master file. It shows Panguitch Lake at 83% with 2 points.

I'll create a new link to my current master spreadsheet as soon as I can get to a computer that doesn't block Google Docs.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Critter said:


> I like the site but why do we need to sign up for a Google account to get the spread sheet?


The file is hosted on Google Docs... I don't know if you are required to sign in because of it's size or what. The current setting that I have for security through the blog is that anyone with the link can access it.

Critter (or anyone else), if don't have a Google account and would prefer not to have/create one if you want to PM me your email I'll send it to you.


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

derekp1999 -

Today was the first time that I checked out the spreadsheet - man, it looks awesome and is very easy to understand. Thanks for putting it all together!


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

CPAjeff said:


> derekp1999 -
> 
> Today was the first time that I checked out the spreadsheet - man, it looks awesome and is very easy to understand. Thanks for putting it all together!


Don't be overly complimentary, the current spreadsheet linked up there has some issues. I'll fix it tonight when I get home and link up one that is fixed (it looks like the non-resident general deer calculation is off).


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## nelsonccc (Jul 8, 2014)

derekp1999 said:


> Don't be overly complimentary, the current spreadsheet linked up there has some issues. I'll fix it tonight when I get home and link up one that is fixed (it looks like the non-resident general deer calculation is off).


The one I have is probably old. I downloaded it quite a while ago when we were talking about some of the issues on the anterless spreadsheet a few months ago.


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## nelsonccc (Jul 8, 2014)

nocturnalenemy said:


> GS deer tags do not use the 50% bonus/50% random rule. These are preference points. All tags go to those with the most points.


Exactly this. Don't know how I missed this or didn't know it. So do I have preference and bonus points for GS deer? Or are my 2 points really preference points? Never really understood the difference. I've applied for Panguitch as my first choice every year so does that mean I have preference points for GS deer?

Nevermind, I was being lazy and just looked it up here.

http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting-in-utah/hunting-permits/684-how-bonus-and-preference-points-work

So I have 2 preference points. The questions would be how does the draw work? If I put in for Panguitch and don't draw am I then considered in the 2 point pool for my 2nd choice, lets say pine valley? Or do I fall behind everyone who had pine valley as their first choice?

This from the DWR page is confusing or I'm stupid....

'*How preference points work in the general-season drawing*: Starting with the highest point level, the drawing looks at the hunter's first choice. If a permit is available for the hunt, the permit is awarded. (In the case of a group application, permits are awarded if there are enough permits for the people in the group.) If permits are not available, the application is skipped and the first choice of the next person is considered. After all first choices have been considered at that preference point level, the drawing will start looking at the second choices within that point level. This process continues in the same way for third, fourth and fifth choices. When the drawing is done for the highest point level, the process repeats for each point level down. Learn more about preference points.'


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

nelsonccc said:


> So I have 2 preference points. The questions would be how does the draw work? If I put in for Panguitch and don't draw am I then considered in the 2 point pool for my 2nd choice, lets say pine valley? Or do I fall behind everyone who had pine valley as their first choice?


Applicants are sorted into preference point pools without consideration for which hunt unit was selected on the application. Once all applicants are arranged into preference point pools applicants are issued random numbers that determine their drawing order within that preference point pool. All applicants within the highest preference point pool are considered and permits awarded before moving to the next preference point pool. So for example, all applicants with 4 preference points will have their applications evaluated and satisfied before moving on to the 3 preference point pool. If you do not draw your first choice on your application you will be awarded a preference point for the drawing the following year.

So if you failed to draw your first choice (Panguitch), by virtue of your 2 preference points the second choice (Pine Valley) on your application would be considered before an applicant who listed Pine Valley as their 1st choice but only has one preference point.

I'm sure you've seen threads discussing certain "loop holes" and proposals to "fix" the general deer preference point drawing... 
One of the proposals that has been floated out there is to change the drawing to consider all 1st choices on applications first before moving on to second choices. Honestly, there are a lot of good ideas out there, but for right now the system is ripe for the taking.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

nelsonccc said:


> Exactly this. Don't know how I missed this or didn't know it. So do I have preference and bonus points for GS deer? Or are my 2 points really preference points? Never really understood the difference. I've applied for Panguitch as my first choice every year so does that mean I have preference points for GS deer?


Bonus points (50:50 split between the highest point holders and lottery) are used in:
- the limited entry deer, elk, and pronghorn drawings
- the Once-in-a-lifetime bison, desert bighorn, rocky mountain bighorn, moose, and mountain goat drawings
- the antlerless moose drawing (if/when tags are issued again)

Preference points (100% tags go to the highest point holders) are used in:
- the general deer drawing
- the antlerless deer, elk, and pronghorn drawings
There is one fundamental difference between the antlerless preference point drawing and the general season deer preference point drawing... and that is with the antlerless preference point if you draw an antlerless tag regardless of which choice your points are consumed and reset to zero. In the general deer you only consume your points if you draw your first choice, so you could draw your 2nd thru 5th choice tag and accrue a point for next year. Again, this is one of those "loop holes" and there have many ideas floated around to make the general deer preference point drawing more like the antlerless preference point drawing in the aspect of if you draw a tag regardless of which "choice" it was the applicant would consume their points. If I could only choose one "loop hole" to close to start with this would be the one that I would choose... but that's just my opinion.


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## 3arabians (Dec 9, 2014)

I will fall asleep tonight a wiser man. Thanks Derek. Thats kinda the way I understood it but you have a knack for putting things in writing and making it very clear.


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## nelsonccc (Jul 8, 2014)

derekp1999 said:


> So if you failed to draw your first choice (Panguitch), by virtue of your 2 preference points the second choice (Pine Valley) on your application would be considered before an applicant who listed Pine Valley as their 1st choice but only has one preference point.


Thanks so much. Is there any way to calculate those odds? For example, if I have a 83% chance at Panguitch and don't draw and I'm in the 2 point pool for Pine valley it would appear I have 100% chance of drawing that Pine tag. Since there were 2 applicants in 2015 who didn't draw in the 1 point pool who would now be in the 2 point pool. So you would think I could still go for Panguitch and be assured of getting the Pine tag?

Am I thinking about this right?


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

nelsonccc said:


> Thanks so much. Is there any way to calculate those odds? For example, if I have a 83% chance at Panguitch and don't draw and I'm in the 2 point pool for Pine valley it would appear I have 100% chance of drawing that Pine tag. Since there were 2 applicants in 2015 who didn't draw in the 1 point pool who would now be in the 2 point pool. So you would think I could still go for Panguitch and be assured of getting the Pine tag?
> 
> Am I thinking about this right?


I'd say you're right... but of course with the fluid nature of applications and guys switching/changing their minds year to year that even though we try to extrapolate data from previous years nothing is "assured."


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## nelsonccc (Jul 8, 2014)

derekp1999 said:


> I'd say you're right... but of course with the fluid nature of applications and guys switching/changing their minds year to year that even though we try to extrapolate data from previous years nothing is "assured."


Yep, I just compared the 2014 & 2015 pine valley non-resident data and that is what stood out to me. There was a much broader change in applicant numbers than I was expecting. There were 69 applicants in the 0 pool in 2014 who didn't draw so you'd think that there would be 69 in the 1 point pool in 2015 but there was only 56.

Of greater concern is that is that pretty much everyone with 1 or more points in 2014 drew, yet there were 13 applicants in 2015 who must have changed units who drew with 2 or more points since they weren't there the year before.

Still think I'm safe for 2016. With 67 tags and me in the 2 point pool there would have to be a great deal of people doing like me with Pine as second choice or transferring to the unit with more than 2 points.

I get such a kick out of learning this stuff and analyzing the numbers and odds. Fun stuff and thanks to everyone's replies!


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

derekp1999 said:


> It looks like there's a glitch in the spreadsheet that is currently linked to the website...
> I'll create a new link to my current master spreadsheet as soon as I can get to a computer that doesn't block Google Docs.


I fixed the link... the spreadsheet linked now is my latest 2016 iteration.


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## wixxman (Jul 23, 2008)

Looking at the posts (really appreciate all the feed back) We put in for the rifle cow tag because of the price for a non-resident spike bull is $393 and the cow tag is $222 that's a $170 savings I can use at Ruby's to appease the CFO (wife) about being gone 2 plus weeks and the money I spend in your fair state


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