# Expo draw odds



## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

Ouch.....has anyone looked at your odds of actually drawing a tag at the hunt expo.they are horrible, here are some examples 1 in 10,000 in some cases Good luck to anyone who put in.


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## katorade (Sep 23, 2007)

So your saying we have a chance!!


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

hazmat said:


> Ouch.....has anyone looked at your odds of actually drawing a tag at the hunt expo.they are horrible, here are some examples 1 in 10,000 in some cases Good luck to anyone who put in.


Yes, I've posted it in the past.

Oh yea... FULLY RANDOM DRAW

/point
/laugh
/golfclap

Tax on people who cant do math, like most lottery's

-DallanC


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

DallanC said:


> Tax on people who cant do math, like most lottery's
> 
> -DallanC


I assure you that every person that has ever won a lottery disagrees with you, just like all of us that have drawn an expo tag do as well.


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## olibooger (Feb 13, 2019)

After reading some of the other threads regarding the expo being a conservation sham, I completely left the expo and the draw alone. I have zero desire to support it. I also noticed the draw odds. Which were horrible in my opinion.


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## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

A cash cow if you add up all the applicants. It amazes me that many people still play with those horrible odds.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Someone has to win, right? Might as well be me! 

My stance on expo and conservation tags has been stated in the past. I oppose them in principle and wish they’d return them to the general draw. But as long as this is the game, I’ll play.


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## hunting777 (May 3, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> Someone has to win, right? Might as well be me!
> 
> My stance on expo and conservation tags has been stated in the past. I oppose them in principle and wish they'd return them to the general draw. But as long as this is the game, I'll play.


I look at it the same way. I think to my self, someone has to win. I can put in for a few tags with the money I saved by not going out to eat one day. Worth it to me.


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## DevilDog09 (Oct 4, 2016)

Anyone want to guess how many Mossback outfitters will somehow “randomly” draw tags?


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

DevilDog09 said:


> Anyone want to guess how many Mossback outfitters will somehow "randomly" draw tags?


It does seem that being a regular Mossback client tends to increase one's odds to draw an expo tag. Weird how that works.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

Vanilla said:


> It does seem that being a regular Mossback client tends to increase one's odds to draw an expo tag. Weird how that works.


It's not weird at all....it's just good karma. Has to be. No other possible explanation. Nothing to see here, move along.

I did some quick math and had one expo hunt come up with a 0.0018% chance while the same hunt in the LE draw had a 0.01% chance. Both odds suck and if you have my luck it doesn't matter what the numbers say...you ain't gonna draw it.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

But then how much money does the regular Mossback client spend on tickets at the Expo. 

I am sure that some of us could live quite comfortable on what they spend trying to get a tag.


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

I put in for 34 units at the Expo - do I have a snowball's chance in hades of drawing? Statistically no.

But it's fun to imagine and dream. I'd rather go down swinging than go down watching . . .


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

When it comes down to it someone has to draw the tags and I figure that it might as well be someone here on UWN so that we can hear about their adventure. 

Also remember that if you don't buy a ticket you can't win.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Critter said:


> Also remember that if you don't buy a ticket you can't win.


But you can take that money, invest it well and if you are lucky that investment pays off big and you go buy a tag outright with the winnings. $10 invested in bitcoin early on was worth close to $100,000,000 there at the peak.

Hard to do? Oh yea... worse odds than drawing a convention tag? I dunno.

Some guys here buy $500 worth of tickets. Invested, they only need a 10 fold stock increase to buy a Landowner LE tag in some areas. Heck if someone skipped buying 5 expo tags in 2008 and bought 15 shares of netflix stock instead, they'd be worth about $5k today.

-DallanC


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

DallanC said:


> But you can take that money, invest it well and if you are lucky that investment pays off big and you go buy a tag outright with the winnings. $10 invested in bitcoin early on was worth close to $100,000,000 there at the peak.
> 
> Hard to do? Oh yea... worse odds than drawing a convention tag? I dunno.
> 
> ...


Yep, and if I would of invested in Microsoft or Tandy Corporation way back when I wouldn't have to worry about what tags cost. I would just outbid everyone for the Governors tag.

But that is the way it goes.


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

Reminds me of this clip:


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## cdbright (Aug 24, 2016)

so drawings start in a few hours right:mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen:


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Oh I'm sure the old "roulette wheel" has been spun more than a few times in that guys dark basement. They can spin it as much as they want until it lands on RED 14.

No oversight on the drawing. Done by 1 single guy... in his basement, with an expired business license (as someone sleuthed up last year and posted).


-DallanC


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## RemingtonCountry (Feb 17, 2016)

Farrar, Mower, Albrecht, Hartley, Larson, Nordhoff... Is it too late to change my last name??

All jokes aside, at what point can I write my tag fees off as a donation? -O\\__-


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## 3arabians (Dec 9, 2014)

CPAjeff said:


> I put in for 34 units at the Expo - do I have a snowball's chance in hades of drawing? Statistically no.
> 
> But it's fun to imagine and dream. I'd rather go down swinging than go down watching . . .


40 for me Jeff. The dreaming is about to end for this year. Good luck!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk


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## Iron bear 2 (Feb 22, 2019)

I drew a tag at the expo last year. Manti late hunt. And I'm not a SFW member but I am counted as a UWC member. The odds may be 1 in 10,000 but considering you can put in for dozens of hunts it has to cut them down considerably. 

I guess I could invest make a fortune then put out a bounty and hire Mossback like Austed did for the spider bull. But I'll probably just keep putting in for the expo tags and hire High Top if I don't know the unit.


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## moabxjeeper (Dec 18, 2012)

Everyone has $5 to burn. The odds aren’t great but the odds are 0 if you don’t even try. Some of you need to get off your high horse and quit pretending that you’re smarter than the rest of us.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

I'm hoping to enter my 5 year probationary state in 2020 and I'm strongly contemplating changing my mentality, swallowing my pride, recalibrating my positioning, and opening my wallet to make a few $5 donations next year...
Not being able to potentially apply for an elk tag in the drawing has me considering compromising my stout moral foundation, biting my tongue and keeping my mouth shut to keep the virtue signaling from spewing out, and taking at least one foot from the stirrup of my high horse...



Oh the things I'll do in a crisis!!!


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## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

Me and my buddies started doing our own deal last year.Rather than spending 200-300$ or more on fuel, hotel, hats , admission and tag fees. We all started putting into a pot(10 of us) the lucky winner gets a guided, semi guided or land permission hunt paid for by the group out of the pot.

This year the winner chose a guided mule deer hunt in Idaho. Last year was a Colorado drop camp bull elk hunt. 
So my odds are one in ten plus I will most likely go along for the hunt with my friend.

The best part is I know my money goes exactly were it is supposed too and not in Don pay days pocket.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Hazmat, I love that! That is one heck of an idea. I’d love to hear more about this.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

The hardest part of that is finding 10 friends that are willing to go with that plan and not complain when they don't draw something or drop out of the group the year after they draw.


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## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

It's pretty easy actually with technology these days. A venmo account set up just for the purpose. And a live draw where everyone is there. It's fair it's fun and even better fair draw odds.
We dont have any issues with anyone dropping out as most of us help out on the hunt in some way or another anyway.


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## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> Hazmat, I love that! That is one heck of an idea. I'd love to hear more about this.


Vanilla if you want in let me know. Or you know a UWN pool would not be that hard to put together


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

hazmat said:


> Vanilla if you want in let me know. Or you know a UWN pool would not be that hard to put together


I'd be all for something like this!


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

hazmat said:


> Vanilla if you want in let me know. Or you know a UWN pool would not be that hard to put together


That's an awesome idea

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> Hazmat, I love that! That is one heck of an idea. I'd love to hear more about this.


Seriously! A bunch of us UWNers should pool together and do something similar to this. If enough people wanted to pony up a similar amount of money and all meet up to pool the money and do the draw you could get enough money for a REALLY good hunt with still somewhat reasonable draw odds. I wouldn't even be boned out if I was never the guy to draw. It would be cool to see somebody deserving go on a bada$$ hunt each year.

Edit: Oh, I just read the posts before me. Looks like people are way ahead of me on this one.


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## callofthewild (Sep 7, 2007)

i'm down with it!


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## bowhunt3r4l1f3 (Jan 12, 2011)

Sign me up too!


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

I am in! 

A lot of us have researched or have friends/acquaintances who are outfitters too and could likely find some deals for some different things!


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## jebuwh (May 19, 2017)

Utah Wildlife Sheep Hunt Pool? Yes please. Count me in as well.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> I'm hoping to enter my 5 year probationary state in 2020 and I'm strongly contemplating changing my mentality, swallowing my pride, recalibrating my positioning, and opening my wallet to make a few $5 donations next year...
> Not being able to potentially apply for an elk tag in the drawing has me considering compromising my stout moral foundation, biting my tongue and keeping my mouth shut to keep & virtue signaling from spewing out, and taking at least one foot from the stirrup of my high horse...
> 
> Oh the things I'll do in a crisis!!!


I'll probably be on the ban list starting in 2020 as well. I'm just gonna start researching good elk units outside of Utah and start putting in for those. Stay strong! Don't enable the swindlers! Or at least consider the proposed UWN drawing if enough of us get together and actually go through with it.


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## Iron bear 2 (Feb 22, 2019)

Is it legal to run a lottery in Utah? Unless these hunts were donated then the funds raised were then used for charity. I'm pretty sure this is called fringe gambling and is frowned upon by the state. However if you guys don't care about the law having a public conversation about it would probably make the dumbest criminal reel. 

I'll stick with the expo for now.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

colorcountrygunner said:


> I'll probably be on the ban list starting in 2020 as well. I'm just gonna start researching good elk units outside of Utah and start putting in for those. Stay strong! Don't enable the swindlers! Or at least consider the proposed UWN drawing if enough of us get together and actually go through with it.


I'll be passing on any UWN pool.

I've got exciting and viable options available with friends in NM and ID but the non-resident fees are cost prohibitive to be able to make it happen every year... I might could make a NM or ID hunt happen every third or every other year...


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## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

Iron bear 2 said:


> Is it legal to run a lottery in Utah? Unless these hunts were donated then the funds raised were then used for charity. I'm pretty sure this is called fringe gambling and is frowned upon by the state. However if you guys don't care about the law having a public conversation about it would probably make the dumbest criminal reel.
> 
> I'll stick with the expo for now.


Iron Bear pretty sure its the same as a fundraiser for youth football or baseball. 
The tags are legally PURCHASED through an outfitter. No different than paying for a friends hunt for that outfitter service.


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## Iron bear 2 (Feb 22, 2019)

Just trying to help you guys out from getting in some trouble. I'm guessing Don Peay is better friends with the AG than you guys. 

Hazmat, I'm fairly confident you and your 10 buddies can fly under the radar on this but if it turned into anything public or bigger. I'm afraid you would be treading on thin ice. I guess you could take a trip to Nevada and do this above the table but then again you may need to aquire a gaming lic to proceed. 

Besides I'm not sure why you would want to dilute the 1:10 odds you have now with more participants. 

Carry on. 

76-10-1101. Definitions. 
As used in this part:
(1)	
(a)	"Fringe gambling" means any gambling, lottery, or video gaming device which is:
(i)	given, conducted, or offered for use or sale by a business in exchange for anything of value; or
(ii)	given away incident to the purchase of other goods or services.
(b)	"Fringe gambling" does not mean a promotional activity that is clearly ancillary to the primary activity of a business.
(c)	Determination of whether a promotional activity is clearly ancillary under Subsection (1)(b) is by consideration of the totality of the circumstances, which may include one or more of these factors:
(i)	the manner in which the business is marketed, advertised, or promoted;
(ii)	whether and the degree to which the business provides instructions regarding the use or operation of the promotional activity, as compared to the use or operation of the goods or services sold by the business;
(iii)	the availability and terms of any free play option to engage in the promotional activity;
(iv)	whether any contest, sweepstakes, or other promotional entries provided to customers who purchase goods or services from the business provide any advantage in winning a prize over any advantage provided to participants in the promotional activity who do not purchase goods or services from the business;
(v)	whether the goods or services promoted for purchase by the business are on terms that are commercially reasonable; and
(vi)	whether any prize won by participation in the promotion may be parlayed into one or more additional opportunities to win an additional prize.
(2)	
(a)	"Gambling" means risking anything of value for a return or risking anything of value upon the outcome of a contest, game, gaming scheme, or gaming device when the return or outcome:
(i)	is based upon an element of chance; and
(ii)	is in accord with an agreement or understanding that someone will receive something of value in the event of a certain outcome.
(b)	"Gambling" includes a lottery and fringe gambling.
(c)	"Gambling" does not include:
(i)	a lawful business transaction; or
(ii)	playing an amusement device that confers only an immediate and unrecorded right of replay not exchangeable for value.
(3)	"Gambling bet" means money, checks, credit, or any other representation of value.
(4)	"Gambling device or record" means anything specifically designed for use in gambling or used primarily for gambling.
(5)	"Gambling proceeds" means anything of value used in gambling.
(6)	"Internet gambling" or "online gambling" means gambling or gaming by use of:
(a)	the Internet; or
(b)	any mobile electronic device that allows access to data and information.
(7)	"Lottery" means any scheme for the disposal or distribution of property by chance among persons who have paid or promised to pay any valuable consideration for the chance of obtaining property, or portion of it, or for any share or any interest in property, upon any agreement, understanding, or expectation that it is to be distributed or disposed of by lot or chance, whether called a lottery, raffle, or gift enterprise, or by whatever name it is known.
(8)	"Video gaming device" means any device that possesses all of the following characteristics:
(a)	a video display and computer mechanism for playing a game;
(b)	the length of play of any single game is not substantially affected by the skill, knowledge, or dexterity of the player;
(c)	a meter, tracking, or recording mechanism that records or tracks any money, tokens, games, or credits accumulated or remaining;
(d)	a play option that permits a player to spend or risk varying amounts of money, tokens, or credits during a single game, in which the spending or risking of a greater amount of money, tokens, or credits:
(i)	does not significantly extend the length of play time of any single game; and
(ii)	provides for a chance of greater return of credits, games, or money; and
(e)	an operating mechanism that requires inserting money, tokens, or other valuable consideration in order to function.


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## colorcountrygunner (Oct 6, 2009)

Iron bear 2 said:


> Just trying to help you guys out from getting in some trouble. I'm guessing Don Peay is better friends with the AG than you guys.
> 
> Hazmat, I'm fairly confident you and your 10 buddies can fly under the radar on this but if it turned into anything public or bigger. I'm afraid you would be treading on thin ice. I guess you could take a trip to Nevada and do this above the table but then again you may need to aquire a gaming lic to proceed.
> 
> ...


Haha I was just going to say that maybe this isn't something that should be discussed so publicly. If somebody important saw that a bunch of commoners in a supposedly free country were forming their own mini lotto and not allowing an avenue for the people that matter to muscle their way in and extort public resources and realize financial gain then they couldn't possibly allow that to happen!


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

With the tournament right around the corner, I wonder if the AG’s office is going to get slammed with policing all the office bracket pools, not to mention the Fantasy Football pools, World Cup pools, etc. 

I understand what you are outlining, Iron Bear, and advertising it on a public forum is not a great idea - so ... who’s in? Send me a PM. 

See - that is much less conspicuous.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Well then - better arrest everyone who advertises Superbowl Squares on their facebook page.


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

This is why Utah should allow gambling. We already do it. Keep the money here instead of other states


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## hazmat (Apr 23, 2009)

CPAjeff said:


> With the tournament right around the corner, I wonder if the AG's office is going to get slammed with policing all the office bracket pools, not to mention the Fantasy Football pools, World Cup pools, etc.
> 
> I understand what you are outlining, Iron Bear, and advertising it on a public forum is not a great idea - so ... who's in? Send me a PM.
> 
> See - that is much less conspicuous.


I am in


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

colorcountrygunner said:


> Seriously! A bunch of us UWNers should pool together and do something similar to this. If enough people wanted to pony up a similar amount of money and all meet up to pool the money and do the draw you could get enough money for a REALLY good hunt with still somewhat reasonable draw odds. I wouldn't even be boned out if I was never the guy to draw. It would be cool to see somebody deserving go on a bada$$ hunt each year.
> 
> Edit: Oh, I just read the posts before me. Looks like people are way ahead of me on this one.


I'm in for something like this.

Can't resist: WILL IT BE RANDOM DRAW OR WILL WE BUILD UP PANSY POINTS?


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