# Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resident



## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

I see that for many LE elk hunts, a proportion of the resident tags (10%) is available for non-residents. Typically, this results in non-residents having lower odds of drawing any particular unit than residents do.

However, just the opposite is true in respect to draw odds for the youth any bull hunts.

[attachment=2:423by4fq]2012 Youth Elk Draw odds.jpg[/attachment:423by4fq]
[attachment=1:423by4fq]2011 Youth Elk Draw odds.jpg[/attachment:423by4fq]
[attachment=0:423by4fq]2010 Youth Elk Draw odds.jpg[/attachment:423by4fq]

Dang! I should input the application for my son as a non-resident and pay the higher fees! There are requirements to be a "resident", but are there restrictions on being a "nonresident"?

All kidding aside, does anyone know why there is such an imbalance in regards to these hunts? Other than the obvious lack of interest from nonresidents? It would seem to me that the number of non-resident tags available should be reduced to the point that residents have at least an _equal_ chance of drawing, if not done away with completely.

Thoughts?


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Because its the worst youth hunting oppertunity there is, 
and Non-res know it.......Utah general season-need I say more?

If your going to take a kid hunting elk, elk youth tags in Wyoming $289..
Plus you can do it every couple of years, AND IT's GOOD HUNTING!

Utah , non-res youth tags $388,+ linceness fee $400 +,,,,Plus once in a liftime...


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

You kidding me Goofy? Hunting with a rifle during the 3rd week of September in an any bull area..... I would love to be able to hunt archery that week.

http://wildlife.utah.gov/maps/public/de ... ary_id=262


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Muleskinner, no KIDDING, WORST YOUTH HUNT Ive EVER SEEN!

Last one, 2011 , 11 days on the S Slope/Kamas, never saw an elk, or herd a buggle!
HUNTED our azz's off....All the camps in that area, same thing--NEVER do it again!


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Non-res get their portion also, which I think is a good thing as I am a non-res in 49 states. I think it is an incredible opportunity for these kids to hunt elk. Problem occurs when people think simply having the permit means they will find elk. It can be a tough hunt, but I hope one of my sons draws it as a youth and we will see elk. We enjoy the general elk hunts in Utah and have a fair amount of success on them. People have different expectations......


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

I have considered WY as an option, but too late to apply for the elk drawing in January. I don't know that WY offers the chance to hunt in the rut like UT does. Still just beginning to figure out WY. AND, I have never scouted any areas there, and would be a complete noob myself trying to lead my son into a hunt. Had I planned ahead more, perhaps I would have hunted in WY myself the last couple years and gotten familiar with some areas. Alas, I had chosen locations closer to home, and more affordable.

Crappy hunts in some areas or not, I still do not understand why it should be continued in a manner that provides non-residents a greater chance of drawing a tag than residents. Even the playing field some. If there is not the same demand for them from outside of the state as within, then adjust the number of non-resident permits to something less than 10% of resident permits, and allocate those to residents.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

For a youth nonresident elk hunt you can't beat Colorado's tag prices. $103.75 for the draw and $103.75 for OTC tags for youth hunts.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

There ya go, SPOT ON Critter!

You can take your kids elk hunting as a non-res in Colorado for $103.75!!!!

VERSUS Utah for $400 plus dollars.......

IMHO, If your going to hunt Utah , For Kids, The general deer any weapon is GOOD!
Getting all 3 seasons is AWESOME..( combine this with a cow permit, 60 days of hunting! )
For elk , spike tags and cow permits FAR SURPASS the youth elk hunt.............


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## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



Charina said:


> Crappy hunts in some areas or not, I still do not understand why it should be continued in a manner that provides non-residents a greater chance of drawing a tag than residents. Even the playing field some. If there is not the same demand for them from outside of the state as within, then adjust the number of non-resident permits to something less than 10% of resident permits, and allocate those to residents.


Do the numbers bud, add back to the resident pool 27 of the 30 nonresident tags and you just took the odds from 6.3% up to 6.9%. Holy cow! that idea really improved the resident odds! :roll:

Be careful in wanting to fiddle with nonresident odds as this is a slippery slope and can bite you in the rear. Leave it be--it wouldn't help your kid draw a tag in any real sense and the nonresidents are given 10% across the board--remember that they pay a lot more than you do also. Or just buck up and put your kid in as a nonresident and pay the money--I doubt they would get too bent out of shape with someone doing that--its usually the other way around.


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



Airborne said:


> Do the numbers bud, add back to the resident pool 27 of the 30 nonresident tags and you just took the odds from 6.3% up to 6.9%. Holy cow! that idea really improved the resident odds! :roll:


Recheck your math. It is not necessarily about the idea of 'greatly improving one's odds'. It's about fairness in giving the _owners_ of the resource at least the same odds as non-owners are receiving. If I were worried simply about getting my "kid" opportunities at the particular hunt, I would be asking about increasing the quota.



Airborne said:


> Be careful in wanting to fiddle with nonresident odds as this is a slippery slope and can bite you in the rear. Leave it be--it wouldn't help your kid draw a tag in any real sense and the nonresidents are given 10% across the board--remember that they pay a lot more than you do also. Or just buck up and put your kid in as a nonresident and pay the money--I doubt they would get too bent out of shape with someone doing that--its usually the other way around.


"Across the board"? There are hunts that are 'resident only'. I would prefer to see this one as a resident only hunt, esp if the purpose is as I have heard stated to interest young potential stakeholders. Yes, they pay more, but they have no _right_ to the state-resident-owned-resource in the way state residents do. They _should_ pay more. And they should _not_ have greater odds of accessing the same resource that residents do. It's a principal thing, not a chance to change outcomes.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

The problem with the odds on the tables that you posted is that they do not tell you the number of points that it took for the nonresident to draw those tags. It is quite possible that it took 10 or more points for the nonresident to draw where residents are drawing with 5.


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## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Charina-->why should I recheck my math--it's correct. I am too lazy to write out the proofs but if you have half a brain you can figure it out, pretty simple. Honestly I don't care about this hunt, I have no dog in this fight and I have no selfish interest in it. What annoys me is people who complain about 'fairness'. Nonresidents get 10% of general tags and most LE tags, the tags that don't have 10% are LE hunts with less than 10 tags-->different than general hunts like this. If we are going to have a policy that nonresidents get 10% of the tags then they should get it regardless of the odds or what you think is 'fair'. Take the good with the bad, stop whining and cherry picking about fair--> is it fair nonresident youth pay less in other states than here? Did you vote for Obama? he is all about fair share


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## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



Critter said:


> The problem with the odds on the tables that you posted is that they do not tell you the number of points that it took for the nonresident to draw those tags. It is quite possible that it took 10 or more points for the nonresident to draw where residents are drawing with 5.


I don't think the youth elk hunt has points--its straight up luck of the draw, going in fresh each year. Pure lottery, pure democracy of ownership--now that is 'Fair'!


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

And I generally don't like unintelligent individuals having a say in policy making. Grow up kid.



Airborne said:


> Charina-->why should I recheck my math--it's correct. I am too lazy to write out the proofs but if you have half a brain you can figure it out, pretty simple. Honestly I don't care about this hunt, I have no dog in this fight and I have no selfish interest in it. What annoys me is people who complain about 'fairness'. Nonresidents get 10% of general tags and most LE tags, the tags that don't have 10% are LE hunts with less than 10 tags-->different than general hunts like this. If we are going to have a policy that nonresidents get 10% of the tags then they should get it regardless of the odds or what you think is 'fair'. Take the good with the bad, stop whining and cherry picking about fair--> is it fair nonresident youth pay less in other states than here? Did you vote for Obama? he is all about fair share


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## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



Charina said:


> And I generally don't like unintelligent individuals having a say in policy making. Grow up kid.


Seriously!! That's your best response?? come on--you can do better than that! I stick my emoticon tongue out at you sir!


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Much ado about nothing....

Gett'in all worked up about a hand full of tags that are not even as good as a
general deer permit!?!?........


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## dark_cloud (Oct 18, 2010)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



goofy elk said:


> Much ado about nothing....
> 
> Gett'in all worked up about a hand full of tags that are not even as good as a
> general deer permit!?!?........


I wish everybody would listen to what goofy has to say  
I would love for my son to draw this tag every year. There is plenty of bulls were I hunt in the open bull areas. The place that you hunted, I wouldnt give you a red nickle to drive through it again, let alone get out and hunt it.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Here's the deal, 
For a guy like _cloud or Packout, that hunt general season elk EVERY year, 
they do OK on these youth elk hunts........

But for guy that does not spent much time in these general elk units, 
IT's EXTREAMLY tough...and most guys putting their kids in for this hunt,
Don't know that 

It takes years, and horses doesn't hurt, to figure these any bull units out :!:

I'll omit, I have a 'bad attitude' toward the youth general bull hunt...
I'd hunted on elk LE every year since 1996, guiding hunts....
Never did any general season elk hunts, I found out 1st hand how tough it is.


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## dkhntrdstn (Sep 7, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



goofy elk said:


> Here's the deal,
> For a guy like _cloud or Packout, that hunt general season elk EVERY year,
> they do OK on these youth elk hunts........
> 
> ...


elk hunting is not easy no matter what. in less it a lat season with snow. then it not easy ether.


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Pout? Really Goofy, you can do better than that.

So here is the deal -as I see it- on the Youth Anybull hunt. I'll use data from the UDWR:

2011 Any Bull Success Rates- 
General Rifle- 13%
Muzzleloader- 8%
Buck/Bull Combo- 10%
Youth Any Bull- 32%

2010 Anybull Success Rates-
General Rifle- 15%
Muzzleloader- 16%
Buck/Bull Combo- 12%
Youth Any Bull- 32%

The Youth Hunt has a success rate more than twice that of the General Season. 
(These are kids hunting with these tags-- Common sense is the success rate would be much higher if experience adults had the permits. I know my 12 or 14 year old take a little more time to make/take the shot.) 
The Youth get to hunt with only 300 other hunters statewide on these units, very little pressure.
The Youth get to hunt elk during the rut, at one of the prettiest times of year.
The Youth Hunt has an equal or higher success rate than 12 of the 26 LTD Entry Archery hunts-- where many people wait 10+ years for the hunt.

Goofy took his boy on this hunt in 2011 for 11 days. He couldn't find an elk. Goofy is an elk guide. Yet, the other kids had a success rate of 32% and I would think that many more had chances, but were unsuccessful due to their lack of experience in putting a bullet in a bull.

In 2010 and 2011 the Youth Any Bull Hunt had a higher success rate than the General Season Deer. Hard to compare elk to deer as we all see a doe on a deer hunt, but elk are never always present everywhere. The end result though is there are more kids who take a bull elk home on the Youth hunt than there are kids who take a buck deer home on the GS hunt (per hunter).


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

If that were the only tag we drew this year I would be stoked. My son that would draw the tag (will be 17 this year) hunts the archery general season with me. He would be doing backflips to go up and hunt a week later than we normally do. I would hunt archery and he would be there with me for that and then we would hunt the youth hunt. It would be a dream season.


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## dark_cloud (Oct 18, 2010)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



goofy elk said:


> Here's the deal,
> For a guy like _cloud or Packout, that hunt general season elk EVERY year,
> they do OK on these youth elk hunts........
> 
> ...


There is nothing wrong with the bad attitude. When you hunt the places you normaly hunt (LE units), you find elk. It only takes a half day and you can find the elk. On the open bull areas, it can take days. Where you spent the youth hunt, I can find the elk during the summer, but have never seen elk during a hunt up there. It took me 2 years to figure out I was wasting my time. I am still trying to get the bad taste out of my mouth _(O)_ and that was 10 years ago. Where I hunt now, it is still a hard hunt, but I can usually find the elk in a day or 2. I would love to see the open bull units have more elk on them, they dont need 350 bulls, but more elk would be nice.

I know goofy gave it a good try, I have seen him in areas most people wouldnt even try, he just picked a bad area. Let him have the bad attitude, I still do. I just chose to find another area.


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



goofy elk said:


> Here's the deal,
> For a guy like _cloud or Packout, that hunt general season elk EVERY year,
> they do OK on these youth elk hunts........
> 
> ...


Well, inbetween the "years" it takes for average joe to get on LE, the general is what we are left to chase. I don't know specifically where you hunted on Kamas, but I would LOVE to have the chance to take my son along Hwy150 in the third week of September. I do happen to know where to find elk in the part of the unit I am familiar with. Too bad you didn't let me know you were going out there. Then again, to get to them is a royal pain in the lungs - not something everyone is willing to put up with.


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## tallbuck (Apr 30, 2009)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



Critter said:


> For a youth nonresident elk hunt you can't beat Colorado's tag prices. $103.75 for the draw and $103.75 for OTC tags for youth hunts.


+1 NO DOUBT

Sad that one day when my son is old enough to hunt I wont be hunting youth hunts in my own state... Will be hunting Wyoming and Idaho.

Tallbuck


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

I think the course this thread took is in part telling of the fact there is an issue with how the youth any-bull hunt is working. It is a sad commentary, in a state that has decent elk populations, that the posts would suggest taking youth to other states as a non-resident to hunt elk rather than hunt in their own state. Is it not?

A closer look at the stats is interesting (at least to me).

From the 2012 Big Game Odds Report:

- There are 123 elk hunts that one could apply for
- Of these 123, there were 22 hunts for which the quota was zero for non-residents - they were resident only hunts.
- In addition, for two units there were no non-resident applicants

For the remaining 99 hunts for which non-residents applied for hunts:

- For 22 hunts, nonresidents had greater draw odds than residents.
- For 1 hunt, the odds were equal as the hunt was undersubscribed for both residents and non-residents.
- For the reamaining 76 (more than 3/4ths) of the hunts, the non-resident odds were less than the resident odds - usually by a wide margin.

In regards to the early youth elk hunt, rather than the "typical" 10% of tags allocated to non-residents, there was *11%* allocated to non-residents. That doesn't account for the greater odds of a non-resident drawing as compared to a resident, but it doesn't seem appropriate given the imbalance. Particularly when the early youth elk hunt is the most imbalanced favoring non-resident odds.

Below are the top 11 hunts where a non-resident's odds are greater than a residents. These 11 hunts represent all 2012 LE elk hunts where the non-resident had at least twice the odds of drawing as compared to a resident.[attachment=2:2t0vy19c]Elk LE comparision.jpg[/attachment:2t0vy19c]

Crappy hunt or not, something doesn't feel right about the above. The youth early elk hunt is the only elk hunt where the non-resident tag quota is greater than 10% of the resident tag quota, and for which the non-resident has a greater odd of drawing the tag. Below are the six 2012 elk hunts in which (excluding rounding) the quota of non-resident tags is greater than 10% of the resident tag quota.[attachment=1:2t0vy19c]Elk LE comparision - over 10.jpg[/attachment:2t0vy19c]

And, just because I have the data handy and can provide it for comparison purposes, here are the 2012 elk hunts where the non-resident had lowest odds of drawing as compared to residents.[attachment=0:2t0vy19c]Elk LE comparision - low odds.jpg[/attachment:2t0vy19c]


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## dark_cloud (Oct 18, 2010)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



Charina said:


> It is a sad commentary, in a state that has decent elk populations, that the posts would suggest taking youth to other states as a non-resident to hunt elk rather than hunt in their own state. Is it not?


The problem is the tag fee. If I was a non-resident, I wouldnt even give Utah a second look at the youth tag. Why would I want to pay more to hunt Utah? Other states have cheaper tags for the youth, plus the parent can buy a tag and hunt right along side them. The other thing you have to remember, most of the elk in open bull areas are not right next to the road. Its a pysically demanding hunt. When I hunt the wasatch I can almost road hunt elk, when I hunt the uintas, I am in the back country 2-5 miles. It makes it hard for some of the youth to go in that far.

As far as residents going out of state instead of hunting their own state, it goes back to being able to get a tag for themselves. I would love to have a tag at the same time as my son. Dont think I am selfish, its not about me, but a hunt with 2 bulls and pictures to go with, would be unreal. Also, the herd numbers are not that great in the open bull areas. Hunting to me is not about the kill, its about the memories spent with family and friends, but when you spend a ton of time on the mountain, and see nothing, it makes you a little upset. I can spend a week on the mountain looking for a big buck,  only to find a ton of does, fawns, and little bucks, and be just fine. But put me on the mountain for 2 hard days of hunting and never see a deer or elk, and I have a very bitter taste in my mouth (LIKE GOOFY) As long as I am seeing wildlife I am good, its even better if its a critter your after. Some of the open bull areas have little to no big game for miles. The high unitas is prime example. Where I hunt elk, there is no deer and very little moose, I have gone days looking for elk and have seen NOTHING AT ALL. It makes for a long boring trip for the youth (and myself)
So what I am trying to say is.......I am more then willing to pay higher tag fees to hunt out of state for........

1 To hunt areas with more game then our open bull units

2 Have a tag at the same time as my son

3 See new country

4 Give my son more opportunity

But dont think I didnt put my son in for the youth hunt, I did. And will continue to do so until he cant anymore. I feel I know an area well enough to get him a good bull when he does draw


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*



dark_cloud said:


> The problem is the tag fee. If I was a non-resident, I wouldnt even give Utah a second look at the youth tag.


Agreed. Completely agree I wouldn't apply either if I was from out of state. Knowing a particular area in general hunts from scouting and hunting, I would like to take my son out there during the rut. But as a non-res paying higher fees, and not having the chance to "know" how difficult the hunt can be coming in blind . . . no.

BUT, that doesn't adress that there is an allocation problem disfavoring residents that the DWR could address. I intend to call, but thought to ask here before in case I was missing something about why more than 10% are allocated, and the disparity between odds is so great.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

The DWR sets aside a basic 10% of tag allocations for Non-res....

What ever the draw odd are, resident or non resident, is not relivant....

Look in the case of antlerless elk tags, many Non-res permit numbers go 
under subcribed..And then are returned to the resident pool.....

Heck, Look at all the under subcribed permits in Wyoming every year..

I dont see your point, how cares if the non-res permits are easyer to draw?
I'm pretty sure they put that number of permit avalible to non-res by law...


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## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Charina,

ok--not trying to be a smart bum or anything but your math is wrong (I have heard that before--from you actually?, I digress). When determining percentages you need to take the number of nonresident tags over the TOTAL NUMBER of tags.

30/300=10%, I think you are calculating the nonresident tags like this 30/270 which is where you are getting 11% which is incorrect. I only glanced at a couple of your numbers so I would assume your percentages are incorrect across the board if you were consistent in your incorrectness.

Math is tough, I understand. I do appreciate your enthusiasm is pointing out injustice, perceived or otherwise. Why don't you rework your numbers and take your idea of limiting nonresident tags if their odds are better than residents to the RAC. Be prepared for disappointment my friend. And for the record I have come up with a lot of dumb ideas that looking back on were silly-->traditional archery only seasons, opposing the premium LE tags cause I figured those rifle guys would wound animals with their bows... stuff like that. All dumb and all out of my brain! you are in good company my friend


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

I intentionally defined the data - "as a percentage of resident tags". I didn't say as a percent of total tags. What you are refering to is as a percentage of _total_ tags, which yes, would be different in some cases. But that is why I labeled the column heading.

Many seem to think that across the board non-res tags are 10% (of total or res, either one). Actually, percentages range from 0% (resident only elk hunts) to 13% (same whether calculating as percentag of resident tags, or as % of total tags).

There is a lot more variation than I initially anticipated, and apparently more than others realized as well.



Airborne said:


> Charina,
> 
> ok--not trying to be a smart bum or anything but your math is wrong (I have heard that before--from you actually?, I digress). When determining percentages you need to take the number of nonresident tags over the TOTAL NUMBER of tags.
> 
> ...


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## Airborne (May 29, 2009)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Charina

This is frustrating--be consistent man!
look at your first graph--if you are going to say % of resident (which is a nonsensical calculation by the way that is not based on how anyone calculates anything) then be consistent!

most of your calculated percentages don't equate:

example:
youth late elk: 2/18 does not equal 10% (even rounded), but 2/20 does, but you said % of resident--ALL OF THEM ARE WRONG except early youth--Seriously, bud, did you take math in school?

none of these equal 10%

1/7
2/17
5/42
3/23
1/5
3/25
1/5

quote of the day: Christ almighty, it's like I'm sittin' here playing cards with my brother's kids or somethin'


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## SteepNDeep (Sep 11, 2007)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Like Goofy said - odds are only evidence of demand.


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## Bigdog425 (May 28, 2011)

*Re: Youth Elk Hunt Draw Odds - NONresident better than resid*

Lots of opinions. Little facts. My non-resident son was drawn the first year we applied. Odds for non-resident youth was about 1 in 4. Hunt was great. Saw elk every day. Shot a 270 6x6 which is now mounted in the game room. Did it come easy..no. We did lots of homework on line and on the phone. We ultimately picked an area with promise and hired a guide who had proven credentials for taking youths on this hunt and had access to both public and private land...at a reasonable cost. Courtney Richins at C&H Outiftters.

Why are the odds so much better for non-resident youth on this GREAT hunt? Simple. Most non-residents would have to hunt more than weekends to justify the travel. How many parents are willing to use precious vacation, take their kid out of school and pay for the travel and potentially hire a guide so that their kid can hunt while they only get to watch? Answer: not many. This dad did and had a once in a lifetime hunt with his son that neither of us will forget.


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