# Do points really help you draw?



## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

We've had a number of threads asking about how points work in the draws and about point creep, etc. Have we had a discussion about whether more points actually helps a person draw a tag?

As I understand it: Fore every point you have, you get that many chances of drawing a "low" number, correct? Whatever a low number is or means.

So, running the numbers from last year's Central Manti Early Rifle LE Elk hunt and after deducting the hunters that drew...I kept the tag numbers identical and will assume that all of those same hunters (and no new ones) enter this years' draw this is what I have....

3,179 hunters did not draw and will enter this year's draw with one more point than last year. Those hunters compete for 63 non-bonus tags which equals 1:50.4 

Now, if each of them had one chance for every point they possessed of drawing a "low" number (1-63 I assume), there would be 16,420 combined chances at drawing one of the non-bonus 63 permits this year. which is 1:260.6 is this really 5x worse odds than if everyone got one chance at drawing one of the remaining regular tags?

So, does it really help to have all these points built up or does it just dilute the pool of applicants and worsen everyone's odds? Now, obviously it help to build points so that eventually you'll be at the top of the pile and get one of the 62 bonus permits but up until that time....? I'm picturing the draw like a typical raffle. As people get more and more raffle tickets and put them into the tumbler, everyone's odds of winning go down. Maybe I'm not fully understanding the behind the scenes method of drawing or something?


BTW: If nobody else ever applied for this tag and none of the hunters left the pool...it'd only take 25 years to get everyone a tag.


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## 7mm Reloaded (Aug 25, 2015)

Only the computer programmer knows the truth:crazy:.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

The thing you are leaving out of the 1:260.6 - If I have 15 points, my odds are 15:260.6

Or 1:17.4


Did I miss the part where you took that into consideration? This doesn't look right, but somewhere you have to account that the person with more points gets more of those entries, so their odds are not the same as a person with 1 point.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Go to derekp's blog. He has the answers.


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

I don't believe in statics you get the 5x times greater than you if you only have 1x points. You get an increase but because numbers are still random you don't get the full 5x. Points are a racket anyway you slice it. They are just there to keep up the hype and give a bit of hope to the avg joes in a system that limits oppertunity in order to make maximum profit for auction and landowner tags

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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

RandomElk16 said:


> The thing you are leaving out of the 1:260.6 - If I have 15 points, my odds are 15:260.6
> 
> Or 1:17.4
> 
> Did I miss the part where you took that into consideration? This doesn't look right, but somewhere you have to account that the person with more points gets more of those entries, so their odds are not the same as a person with 1 point.


+1

That's the general idea. If you have a low amount of points relative to the average, your odds of drawing are worse than they would be in a random draw. If you have a high amount of points relative to the average, your odds of drawing are greater than they would be in a random draw. So yes, they do help eventually.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

RandomElk16 said:


> The thing you are leaving out of the 1:260.6 - If I have 15 points, my odds are 15:260.6
> 
> Or 1:17.4
> 
> Did I miss the part where you took that into consideration? This doesn't look right, but somewhere you have to account that the person with more points gets more of those entries, so their odds are not the same as a person with 1 point.


My math may very well be wrong, hence the post and question.

1:260 is the calculation as if there were 16,420 applicants and the same amount of tags. So in effect maybe it should be 15:16,420?


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## BPturkeys (Sep 13, 2007)

If 25 people have the same number of points and that number is more than any other person and there are 25 tags, would all the tags go to them? Or do they just have more "beans" in the jar than any other people, giving them a better "chance" to draw?

I guess what I am asking is, is there ever a time(accumulate enough points) you can reach where "you will get a tag if you put in"...guaranteed ?


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

-DallanC


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

BPturkeys said:


> If 25 people have the same number of points and that number is more than any other person and there are 25 tags, would all the tags go to them? Or do they just have more "beans" in the jar than any other people, giving them a better "chance" to draw?
> 
> I guess what I am asking is, is there ever a time(accumulate enough points) you can reach where "you will get a tag if you put in"...guaranteed ?


In Utah's bonus point system I would say no. However if you have more points than anyone else and there are only 2 tags offered one for the top point holders and the other to the pool of the rest of the hunters then you should draw the tag.

A few years ago I had max points for the Book Cliff muzzle loader deer hunt along with 14 others I believe. I was one of the lucky ones that had to wait another year to draw my tag.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

How your bonus points actually work is a difficult thing to try and interpret… there are essentially two steps that need to occur before any tags are drawn.

First you are given a randomly generated number for each bonus point you have plus one for the current application. So an applicant with 15 points would actually receive 16 random numbers. This is where your bonus points “theoretically” improve your chances… you have more numbers and therefore a higher chance of receiving a “low” number. 

Second, the applicant only retains their lowest number, all other numbers are discarded and the applicants are placed in order based upon their lowest retained number. So although you receive 16 numbers you technically only enter the drawing with one number… the lowest number that you received in the random number generation. You enter the actual drawing with only one number, just like everybody else.

The odds calculation sites (mine included) actually calculate your odds based off the number of random numbers you receive and that having more random numbers gives you a higher probability of receiving a low random number compared to somebody with few bonus points.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

BPturkeys said:


> I guess what I am asking is, is there ever a time(accumulate enough points) you can reach where "you will get a tag if you put in"...guaranteed ?


There are currently 4 resident applicants that can say they are guaranteed, but only if they apply for a unit that offers a minimum of two tags for the hunt...
- there is one person with 24 LE deer bonus points entering the 2018 application cycle, there are no applicants with more than 24 bonus points.
- there is one person with 25 rocky mountain bighorn sheep points
- 1 applicant with 25 bull moose points
- 1 applicant with 19 buck pronghorn points

There are 4 non-residents what can say they are guaranteed with the same caveat, that they apply to a unit that offers more than one tag:
- 1 applicant with 25 bull elk points
- 1 applicant with 21 rocky mountain bighorn points
- 1 applicant with 25 bison points
- 1 applicant with 24 moose points

If these applicants apply for any hunt this year that offers bonus tags they have the closest thing to a "guarantee" that is possible.


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

Still a better point system than most, at least you have a false sense of hope with points.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

KineKilla said:


> My math may very well be wrong, hence the post and question.
> 
> 1:260 is the calculation as if there were 16,420 applicants and the same amount of tags. So in effect maybe it should be 15:16,420?


That's not it. Basically. You are assuming the 16,420 applications are different people trying for 63 different tags. Really the 16,420 applications are made up of less people. When someone has 15 entries, it won't covert directly to 1:17, but they will have better odds than the guy with one entry.


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

This is an interesting discussion and the most correct answer is only the computer programmer knows the true story. But for fun---

I looked at the Manti Early elk for the 2017 draw came up with 3,241 applicants after the draw. So going into 2018 there would be 20,639 "chances" among those 3,241 applicants. Not assigning new 0 point applicants or bonus tags and using the 63 tags from 2017.

So there are 20,639 possible chances and only 63 of those can be successful. A person with 16 points has 17 chances out of the 20,639. 
20,639 / 17 = 1,214 
Then there are 63 successful outcomes, so 1,214 / 63 = 1 in 19.3 chance 
Or a percentage chance of 5.2%

A person with 1 point has 2 chances. 20639 / 2 = 10,320
10,320 / 63 = 1 in 163.8 Or a percentage chance of .6%.

If we did not have points then 3,241 / 63 = 1 in 51 odds Or a 2% chance for everyone.

So points do increase your chances of drawing, but not by as much as we sometimes hope they would. And I didn't check my math perfectly, but it should be close.

Does every point/application have the same chance of getting a number between 1 and 63? That is the biggest question......

...


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Packout said:


> This is an interesting discussion and the most correct answer is only the computer programmer knows the true story. But for fun---
> 
> I looked at the Manti Early elk for the 2017 draw came up with 3,241 applicants after the draw. So going into 2018 there would be 20,639 "chances" among those 3,241 applicants. Not assigning new 0 point applicants or bonus tags and using the 63 tags from 2017.
> 
> ...


Thank goodness we found a math nerd with some time on his hands! ;-)


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## Steve G (Nov 29, 2016)

Try drawing without points.


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

It has happened. Twice in a row in fact.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

Every year people draw seemingly impossible tags with 0 points.

I believe I understand what derekp1999 is saying and attempting to illustrate...just not real sure I see it the same way. In his example there ends up being 1 actual random number for each applicant (their lowest number). They all just get multiple chances to draw the lowest number possible...that part kind of confuses me.

If everyone is drawing multiple times to try to get a number between 1-63 (I’m assuming the numbers you want are the tags available?) then are we still not making thousands of attempts to draw those select few?

Another question is who gets to use their multiple chances first and is there a cap to the numbers? If 10,000 chances to draw 1-63 go before me then my actual odds of having one of those numbers left is pretty slim unless the number range is unlimited of course.


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

If a random number is assigned to an app/point, then once the number "1" is assigned, the draw is over regardless if someone has 15 points or none.


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

High Desert Elk said:


> If a random number is assigned to an app/point, then once the number "1" is assigned, the draw is over regardless if someone has 15 points or none.


Not with multiple tags then number 2 and number 3 and so on are still in play until there are no tags left

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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

weaversamuel76 said:


> Not with multiple tags then number 2 and number 3 and so on are still in play until there are no tags left
> 
> Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk


Yes, correct(ion). I was basing the statement on a scenario similar to SJ Bull when only two NR permits are available.


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## MWScott72 (May 23, 2011)

derekp1999 said:


> There are currently 4 resident applicants that can say they are guaranteed, but only if they apply for a unit that offers a minimum of two tags for the hunt...
> - there is one person with 24 LE deer bonus points entering the 2018 application cycle, there are no applicants with more than 24 bonus points.
> - there is one person with 25 rocky mountain bighorn sheep points
> - 1 applicant with 25 bull moose points
> - 1 applicant with 19 buck pronghorn points


Someone that has 19 points for antelope in UT obviously has more money than sense. That, or he knows something the rest of us don't!!


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

19 divided by 2 = 9 points in the draw and the pair could hunt almost any unit. 

..


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

MWScott72 said:


> Someone that has 19 points for antelope in UT obviously has more money than sense. That, or he knows something the rest of us don't!!


He's drawing other LEs and using points like this from "grandma" to average down and draw another LE the following year.

His 0 LE points + grandma's 19 points = 9 points going into the LE Pronghorn draw in his first year.

Say he had grandparents on both sides he was doing this for. Say each grandmother was put in for LE Pronghorn, the grandfathers putting in for LE Deer... all the while he goes off chasing LE Elk. He draws the elk finally, then the next year puts in for LE Deer, averaged with 1 grandfather = 10ish points. If he had more people he could draw much more often. Lets say he has been putting in his wife for LE Elk along with the grandparent for just points.

He could draw LE elk on his own, LE deer the next year using grandfather1's points, the next year draw LE Pronghorn using grandmother1's points. Take one year to put in for something else, then follow it up with LE Deer using grandfather2's points and another LE pronghorn the next year using grandmother2's points. Then he averages with his wife and draws LE elk again.

He could draw 6 LE tags in 7 years doing this.

Its very smart and ALOT of guys do it. TWO neighbors next to me have wifes with max and max-1 LE elk points currently.

-DallanC


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

DallanC said:


> He's drawing other LEs and using points like this from "grandma" to average down and draw another LE the following year.
> 
> His 0 LE points + grandma's 19 points = 9 points going into the LE Pronghorn draw in his first year.
> 
> ...


Now lets say you do this in a group app, but then the wife/grandma/etc turns her tag back in. Wouldn't you get to keep your tag, and she'd get her points back...?
I've never messed much with group apps so I genuinely don't know if there is something in place to prevent this.


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

johnnycake said:


> Now lets say you do this in a group app, but then the wife/grandma/etc turns her tag back in. Wouldn't you get to keep your tag, and she'd get her points back...?
> I've never messed much with group apps so I genuinely don't know if there is something in place to prevent this.


No it was originally that way but thankful it's now everyone turns in or no one can

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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

johnnycake said:


> Now lets say you do this in a group app, but then the wife/grandma/etc turns her tag back in. Wouldn't you get to keep your tag, and she'd get her points back...?
> I've never messed much with group apps so I genuinely don't know if there is something in place to prevent this.


You used to be able to do that... until one guy start selling a group app spot with his wife who had max points for bookcliff tags. She had so many points it was a guaranteed draw whoever she grouped with. Then they would turn her tag in and do it again the next year. Now all parties in the group app have to turn in their tags to get the points back.

Still worth the cost though to pull as many LE tags as possible, especially considering a big LE bull tag is $15-25k at auction. Only live once, and you cant take $$$ with you when you die. Might as well game the system.

Add in the mentor system cluster.... to this and it makes it even more lopsided against a normal hunter.

-DallanC


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## APD (Nov 16, 2008)

wow, this thread is slightly depressing.


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

I guess it's amazing I've ever drawn anything. 
I'm too stupid to come with that kind of tricks. 
I've always said.....if people can find a way to cheat or steal.....they will. 
Change the rules, and they will find the new loophole. 

Guess I'll start putting in the wife and daughters.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Yes,
Points HELP you draw. 
When used correctly, it's unbelievable. 
I will (should) draw my 11th LE big game permit this year. Only counting big game.

Ive drawn 9 other LE for bear, lion, and turkey. ..20 total since points began. 

Oh ya, moose too.


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## MooseMeat (Dec 27, 2017)

goofy elk said:


> Yes,
> Points HELP you draw.
> When used correctly, it's unbelievable.
> I will (should) draw my 11th LE big game permit this year. Only counting big game.
> ...


Drawing tags and drawing tags worth having are 2 completely different things...


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Oh ,
I've had "tags " worth having! 
Paunsy deer twice.
Thousand lakes deer when it was LE.
Elk on a Manti, Anthro, and the Bookcliffs. 

This year will be the 3rd antelope tag in 9 years.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

goofy elk said:


> Yes,
> Points HELP you draw.
> When used correctly, it's unbelievable.
> I will (should) draw my 11th LE big game permit this year. Only counting big game.
> ...


Please elaborate. How does a person draw 3 LE Elk tags in 20 years with a 5yr. waiting period between each one? That's a combined 15 years of waiting where you cannot build points so only 5 points needed between all three tags?

Other than exceptional luck drawing with 1-2 points each time I don't see the math adding up.

A total of 20 LE tags in how many years? In a system that only allows for 1 LE point for only 1 big game species per year and none during waiting periods?


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

KineKilla said:


> Please elaborate. How does a person draw 3 LE Elk tags in 20 years with a 5yr. waiting period between each one? That's a combined 15 years of waiting where you cannot build points so only 5 points needed between all three tags?
> 
> Other than exceptional luck drawing with 1-2 points each time I don't see the math adding up.


There is only a 5 year wait on Elk, antelope and deer are a 2 year wait. There is no wait if you buy a tag at auction either.

-DallanC


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Heck , I even forgot one.
I bought an Avitaquin elk permit 2 years before the point system. It's actually 4 LE elk permits.

The Bookcliffs elk permit was the year they started points. They waived all waiting periods for everyone that year so everyone started out even.


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

I have to assume that having some exceptionally good luck also played a significant role in your drawing success.....?

The way things are these days, it takes almost 20 years to draw one LE Elk tag let alone any of the other tags.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

KineKilla said:


> I have to assume that having some exceptionally good luck also played a significant role in your drawing success.....?
> 
> The way things are these days, it takes almost 20 years to draw one LE Elk tag let alone any of the other tags.


Apparently you are thinking only rifle seasons. Goofy puts in for archery which has MUCH better odds than rifle seasons. Some take only a few points to draw.

*Edit:* I just briefly looked, EB3003 Limited Entry Archery Bull Elk - Cache, Meadowville - Archery took 0 points to draw a LE bull elk tag last year.* 7 hunters had 0 points, all drew. So you just gotta be smart about what you are applying for, but the chance to draw often is still there.

-DallanC


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

DallanC said:


> *Edit:* I just briefly looked, EB3003 Limited Entry Archery Bull Elk - Cache, Meadowville - Archery took 0 points to draw a LE bull elk tag last year.* 7 hunters had 0 points, all drew. So you just gotta be smart about what you are applying for, but the chance to draw often is still there.
> 
> -DallanC


90% private and the 10% public is landlocked.

Private landowner dream LE area. Elk every 5 years and sell trespass the years between.


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## 3arabians (Dec 9, 2014)

RandomElk16 said:


> 90% private and the 10% public is landlocked.
> 
> Private landowner dream LE area. Elk every 5 years and sell trespass the years between.


Ha! Yup! Been waiting for my winning lotto ticket for 20 years now so I can buy up some Cache Meadowville property and live the dream. Big ole stinky bulls on the unit too.

My wait continues.................


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## KineKilla (Jan 28, 2011)

DallanC said:


> Apparently you are thinking only rifle seasons. Goofy puts in for archery which has MUCH better odds than rifle seasons. Some take only a few points to draw.
> 
> *Edit:* I just briefly looked, EB3003 Limited Entry Archery Bull Elk - Cache, Meadowville - Archery took 0 points to draw a LE bull elk tag last year.* 7 hunters had 0 points, all drew. So you just gotta be smart about what you are applying for, but the chance to draw often is still there.
> 
> -DallanC


I was just thinking about what was stated. Manti, Anthro and Bookcliffs Elk.

Last I checked (and you are right, I'm a rifle hunter) it was still taking 5 years or so to draw those units...even with Archery equipment. If you took 5 years to draw, 5 years to wait to get another point, etc. You'd hunt elk every 10-11 years. That means these tags were being drawn with less than max points each time.

He's already stated that one was the year points came into existence so that it really didn't take any points at all. even with archery equipment, if it takes 5 years to draw a tag then 5 years to wait...wouldn't that mean 2 tags every 20 years? I like those numbers better than I like the rifle draw lengths but man....that's still a long *** time to wait to hunt a bull elk.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

3arabians said:


> Ha! Yup! Been waiting for my winning lotto ticket for 20 years now so I can buy up some Cache Meadowville property and live the dream. Big ole stinky bulls on the unit too.
> 
> My wait continues.................


Ya better hurry to Idaho, Wyoming, or Colorado. The Mega Millions ticket is worth 377 million tonight.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

3arabians said:


> Ha! Yup! Been waiting for my winning lotto ticket for 20 years now so I can buy up some Cache Meadowville property and live the dream. Big ole stinky bulls on the unit too.
> 
> My wait continues.................


I dunno...the UT GS any bull seems to be treating you pretty good lately. Cheaper tag and no waiting periods either! Now imagine what you can pull off if you hunt all 3 seasons!


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## 3arabians (Dec 9, 2014)

johnnycake said:


> I dunno...the UT GS any bull seems to be treating you pretty good lately. Cheaper tag and no waiting periods either! Now imagine what you can pull off if you hunt all 3 seasons!


Shush man! People are gunna start following my truck around. 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk


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## mrkrik (Jan 26, 2016)

It's all relative to what you're putting in for. For the random draws with the really low odds tags, it helps, but your chance is still so low, it's a miracle if you pull it whether you have 0 points or 20 points. As an example, my wife pulled the only NR early rifle Monroe elk tag last fall. A person with 0 points had a 0.027% chance. That's right, a 1/3668 chance. My wife had a 0.35% chance with 12 points. About a 1/285 shot. The highest point total that applied at 21 points had a 0.6% chance. About a 1/167 shot. More points help, but in this case, 21 points doesn't get you anywhere close to a guarantee.


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Here are a couple of thoughts.....

1.- Flush out the points holders and go to a purely random draw with waiting periods.
2.- Do away with the $10 app fee and front up the highest tag cost like other states.

Did I just paint a target on myself?


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

3arabians said:


> Shush man! People are gunna start following my truck around.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk


Isn't it a powerstroke?

If I am right, this forum is far too revealing haha


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Hello OnStar? My good friend *3arabians* went hunting and we haven't heard from him in a while. He is overdue and we are very concerned about his safety and are trying to find his location. Can you please give us the gps coordinates of his truck so we can go look for elk... I mean him?? You can? Ok thank you very much! :mrgreen:

-DallanC


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## 3arabians (Dec 9, 2014)

RandomElk16 said:


> Isn't it a powerstroke?
> 
> If I am right, this forum is far too revealing haha


Sold that POS and bought a Cummins!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk


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## RG the OG (Oct 31, 2016)

MadHunter said:


> Here are a couple of thoughts.....
> 
> 1.- Flush out the points holders and go to a purely random draw with waiting periods.
> 2.- Do away with the $10 app fee and front up the highest tag cost like other states.
> ...


Colorado actually just went away with this system, it will definitely bring their draw odds down but why would they care. More applications more money.


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## maverick9465 (Nov 21, 2016)

I have another points question. Are your points per species or are they all lumped together? For example, if I have 5 bighorn sheep points and 5 bull elk points, do I have 10 points for other drawings? Or just 5 per species?


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

maverick9465 said:


> I have another points question. Are your points per species or are they all lumped together? For example, if I have 5 bighorn sheep points and 5 bull elk points, do I have 10 points for other drawings? Or just 5 per species?


They are per species.


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## MWScott72 (May 23, 2011)

Colorado actually just went away with this system, it will definitely bring their draw odds down but why would they care. More applications more money.[/QUOTE]

Wait, CO changed their system? I thought they were a true preference point system where hight points pull the tag. Has this changed?


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Colorado is still a preference point system. The only thing that changed is the post pay so no more putting the money up front.


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