# Utah big game drawing odds are now online



## Amy (Jan 22, 2009)

Utah's 2013 big game drawing odds are now online. (Scroll about halfway down the page to the "Big game statistics & drawing odds" header.)


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## Bears Butt (Sep 12, 2007)

Thanks Amy!


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## Hunter Tom (Sep 23, 2007)

Another difficult to use report. In this age of computers, the hunts should be name identified by other than numbers.


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## 400BULL (Nov 16, 2007)

Hunter Tom
If you open the report that is for the species that you are interested in, the report will have both the unit number and unit name. For example: If I wanted to know what the draw odds were for Moose I would open the http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2013/13_moose.pdf report. The http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2013/13_big_game_odds_report.pdf report is a general overview report that only lists the unit number.

400bull


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## El Matador (Dec 21, 2007)

Nice to finally see these! I agree with Tom 100%, even on the species-specific reports there is no indication of which hunt you're looking at. Archery, muzz, rifle? You have to either look up the hunt number elsewhere or figure it out some other way. Guess I shouldn't blame the messenger though :mrgreen:


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## yak4fish (Nov 16, 2007)

Just when I think I reached the golden challis of the bonus point pool the DWR cut tags and someone with more points than me switched to the tag I'm going for. I won't be in the bonus point pool next year and it could be as much as five years before I'm gauranted a tag.


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## El Matador (Dec 21, 2007)

Yeah it sucks to finally reach the Challis only to be denied. Quite a few people migrating between hunts the last few years I've noticed. 

I want to know who the 2 people are that have 12 preference points for general deer. 

Also noticed that some general deer hunts are now taking 5 pp to draw.

On some general hunts it shows people with 2 or 3 points not receiving a tag, whereas some 1-point holders are getting tags for the same hunt. Isn't this contrary to how the preference point system works? Or are these people turning tags back in, or what? Just found it a little confusing.

The hunt I've been chasing had been gaining applicants like mad but seems to have leveled off. Hopefully that puts me in the bonus pool next year!


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## Packout (Nov 20, 2007)

Thanks for the link, Amy. Your time and efforts are appreciated. 

FYI for everyone-- The General Season Deer Odds are once again a waste of the UDWR's time to compile and are relatively worthless to the public. They are not even close to correct. They don't figure youth tags and those odds. They include lifetime licensees, who don't even apply in the draw. They also don't show the people who drew permits with their 2nd choice and still kept their points. Not one person within the UDWR and no public applicants are able to read the odds report, which just creates confusion. Just like last year, it will be a PR mess for the UDWR.

Matador- if someone with 12 points applies with 3 people who have 0 points they still average 4 points. I think people are just by buying points for future use. I was in a meeting where State personnel were laughing at people with high amounts of general season deer points, but they don't understand the system they have created and how people are gaming it.


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## UtahMountainMan (Jul 20, 2010)

Packout nailed it. I was thinking some of the same things, how do we figure in youth tags? Lifetime licensees? Etc.

The draw odds are a little helpful but very confusing, come in an archaic format, and dont paint the whole picture.


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## swbuckmaster (Sep 14, 2007)

Booya packout nailed it. 

Come on dwr its time to step up to the plate.


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## El Matador (Dec 21, 2007)

Thanks for the clarification, Packout. I know they changed the rule about being able to keep those 12 points after surrendering your tag (and the people you applied with kept their tags anyway)...but someone could still do that trick once I suppose. Actually kind of clever. I will refrain from perusing the general season odds from now on.


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## Charina (Aug 16, 2011)

Thanks Amy for wading into the firing range and providing a heads up of the availability of the report! Your continued input here is much appreciated. 

Including more information about the specific hunt (eg archery, muzzy, general in addition to the hunt name) in the tables (esp since hunt numbers can shift from year to year) would be great.


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## xxxxxxBirdDogger (Mar 7, 2008)

Look at the Plateau, Thousand Lakes rifle hunt odds. Only one person with 1 PP drew the tag. 72 people with zero PP drew the tag. What kind of algorithm did that?


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

BirdDogger said:


> Look at the Plateau, Thousand Lakes rifle hunt odds. Only one person with 1 PP drew the tag. 72 people with zero PP drew the tag. What kind of algorithm did that?


I will be willing to bet that those 72 people that had zero points were dedicated and or lifetime license holders.


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## Swaner (Sep 10, 2007)

BirdDogger said:


> Look at the Plateau, Thousand Lakes rifle hunt odds. Only one person with 1 PP drew the tag. 72 people with zero PP drew the tag. What kind of algorithm did that?


I had 3 PP as did my brother, neither of us drew that hunt. 
I guess the odds weren't in our favor again this year.

Looking at the number of unsuccesful's with 3 points this year, I'm guessing I may not get the tag again next year either.


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## grizzly (Jun 3, 2012)

DWR knows full-well how the system works. They publish the "dummy odds" because it would ruin their product if they showed actual odds. The DWR sheet for 2012 shows the person that drew Antelope Island did it with 1 in 108 odds, actual number was 1 in 1,200.

Which would you publish when you have a product you are trying to sell?

(For the record, the DWR page shows the Antelope Island tag this year was drawn with odds of 1 in 18.)


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Swaner said:


> I had 3 PP as did my brother, neither of us drew that hunt.
> I guess the odds weren't in our favor again this year.
> 
> Looking at the number of unsuccesful's with 3 points this year, I'm guessing I may not get the tag again next year either.


Unless you are a dedicated hunter or have a Lifetime License I would forget about this unit. Also the quality in the unit isn't what you would expect and that is one of the reasons that it came off of the LE hunts to a general season one.


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## 400BULL (Nov 16, 2007)

Critter said:


> I will be willing to bet that those 72 people that had zero points were dedicated and or lifetime license holders.


 My bet would be the 72 that drew with 0 PP were youth.

I jumped the gun I would think that a portion of the 72 were youth tags. Remember that 20% (18 tags) of the 89 were held for youth hunters.


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## El Matador (Dec 21, 2007)

grizzly said:


> DWR knows full-well how the system works. They publish the "dummy odds" because it would ruin their product if they showed actual odds. The DWR sheet for 2012 shows the person that drew Antelope Island did it with 1 in 108 odds, actual number was 1 in 1,200.
> 
> Which would you publish when you have a product you are trying to sell?
> 
> (For the record, the DWR page shows the Antelope Island tag this year was drawn with odds of 1 in 18.)


They list the data as a "success ratio", which is pretty far from actual odds. The total success ratio for that hunt (for all applicants) was 1 in 1565. To calculate the real odds of drawing you have to figure up the total chances that existed to draw that 1 tag (# of people with 0 points x 1, plus # of people with 1 point x 2, etc.). Then take your # chances and divide by the total chances. Hunter's Trailhead is a great site that shows these odds, as well as previous year's odds and the way each hunt is trending...but it became a pay site last year. I've been using neverstophunting.com. It's great but only shows the current year.


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## Swaner (Sep 10, 2007)

Critter said:


> Unless you are a dedicated hunter or have a Lifetime License I would forget about this unit. Also the quality in the unit isn't what you would expect and that is one of the reasons that it came off of the LE hunts to a general season one.


I wouldn't necessarily say that. My Dad drew it this year with 3 points. But I think he is going to turn it in so he can hunt with my brother and I.

I agree...the quality is waaayyy down on that unit :O•-:


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## hossblur (Jun 15, 2011)

Someone with 0, freaking 0 points drew the North Slope Moose. Who is the person, I have a cane pole I am dying to try out!!! Zero Points, come on, I don't know if I can get a rifle rack for a Jazzy, clocks a ticking!!!


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

hossblur said:


> Someone with 0, freaking 0 points drew the North Slope Moose. Who is the person, I have a cane pole I am dying to try out!!! Zero Points, come on, I don't know if I can get a rifle rack for a Jazzy, clocks a ticking!!!


That is one fun thing about Utah's draw system. At times I think that a person would be better off with zero points on the draw than in the middle somewhere. A couple of years ago there were a couple of people with max points that didn't draw tags but ones with less than max did.

Go figure.


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## solocam (Jul 26, 2013)

This is why I only buy a general archery elk tag in Utah and hunt better spots in New Mexico. I've been drawn in the lottery there 4 out of 5 years. Sure its a little extra money, but who has time to sit and wait 10-15 years here?


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## martymcfly73 (Sep 17, 2007)

Critter said:


> That is one fun thing about Utah's draw system. At times I think that a person would be better off with zero points on the draw than in the middle somewhere. A couple of years ago there were a couple of people with max points that didn't draw tags but ones with less than max did.
> 
> Go figure.


I noticed this for he moose tag I applied for. The amount of points I'll have next year give me worse odds than if I had 3-4 points. Go figure.


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## grizzly (Jun 3, 2012)

El Matador said:


> They list the data as a "success ratio", which is pretty far from actual odds. The total success ratio for that hunt (for all applicants) was 1 in 1565. To calculate the real odds of drawing you have to figure up the total chances that existed to draw that 1 tag (# of people with 0 points x 1, plus # of people with 1 point x 2, etc.). Then take your # chances and divide by the total chances. Hunter's Trailhead is a great site that shows these odds, as well as previous year's odds and the way each hunt is trending...but it became a pay site last year. I've been using neverstophunting.com. It's great but only shows the current year.


I know how the system works. (HunterTrailhead is where I got the actual odds that I posted above.) My point is that if DWR wanted us to know the true odds, they could calculate them and post them. They choose not to do so because it is in their best-interest that many of us are naive to what we really face each year.

Most hunters I talk to are under the false impression that they have 8 elk points and will be drawing the San Juan in the next year or two. They have no idea that there around 1000 people ahead of them applying for that same rifle tag every year.

I believe DWR wants it this way, naive people are easy to manipulate and it keeps applications (revenue) up as everybody thinks that next year is their year.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

Well there is one positive thing in those reports! Finally some justice! my brother who has always drawn EVERYTHING!!!(two LE deer tags with 0 points each time---rolls out of bed and has his tag filled by some tame fill-in-the-blank without trying). Finally things caught up to him! He was the only person in his point pool that didn't get a bison tag.....justice! No seriously, it would have been cool for him to get that tag but there is always next year!


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

As Packout explained, the regular deer draw odds ARE uninterpretable due to the youth hunters, lifetime licensees, and DHers. However, the stats for the OIL and LE actually are straightforward. The only silly thing the DWR does is put "success ratio" on each bonus point number line. This only is important if you are eligible for a bonus tag on that hunt. Otherwise, ignore it. Unless in bonus point territory, your odds to draw are basically the total number of applicants (minus the # of bonus tag winners) divided by the number of regular tags. (with a boost if you have more bonus points) It isn't too hard. 

That said, with computers, it would be easy to provide true odds to each applicant points category (even factoring in bonus points) after each draw and it wouldn't require hiring a math genius to do it. That is really what they should put in their current silly "success ratio" line.


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## stillhunterman (Feb 15, 2009)

Catherder said:


> As Packout explained, the regular deer draw odds ARE uninterpretable due to the youth hunters, lifetime licensees, and DHers. However, the stats for the OIL and LE actually are straightforward. The only silly thing the DWR does is put "success ratio" on each bonus point number line. This only is important if you are eligible for a bonus tag on that hunt. Otherwise, ignore it. Unless in bonus point territory, your odds to draw are basically the total number of applicants (minus the # of bonus tag winners) divided by the number of regular tags. (with a boost if you have more bonus points) It isn't too hard.
> 
> *That said, with computers, it would be easy to provide true odds to each applicant points category (even factoring in bonus points) after each draw and it wouldn't require hiring a math genius to do it. That is really what they should put in their current silly "success ratio" line*.


Yep.


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## hossblur (Jun 15, 2011)

Why are you complaining. This year hunters can expect to see more bucks on there units. We are expecting about a 30% success rate for deer in most of the units. Isn't this the year to year print out about success rates from the DWR. I read it every year in the Standard Examiner, why is a 30% success rate so hard to understand?


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