# Manti or La Sal Elk



## Ray (May 10, 2018)

Starting to think about my application strategy for next year. I’ll have a 1 in 3 chance for drawing a La Sal tag and only a 1 in 9 chance on drawing a Manti tag, based of off 2018 draw results. My question is, which would you rather?

I’ll have a Manti dedicated tag next year as my draw odds are 1 in 1. Should I just wait for a Manti tag?


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

One in the hand is better than two in bush or some such thing. You never know what will happen in life before you could cash out on the manti. 

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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

That’s a valid point.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

The La Sal Mountains hunt can be amazing or very frustrating (or both)--and to be fair, the same goes for the Manti. Here are some of the variables that I think could skew the choice:

1) Which season?
2) Familiarity with one or both units
3) Distance to the unit from your house (odds are the Manti is way closer) 
4) Available time to scout and to hunt (be realistic)
5) How many points

The Manti is enormous, and has a much larger total population--which means the sheer number of good bulls is better on any given year. This is a double-edged sword though as you just cannot realistically hunt the entire unit in a season. 

The La Sals have a much smaller unit and a smaller % of the unit that is elk habitat--but there are some excellent genetics on that mountain. There's a higher % of inline 7x7s and monster 5pts than other units I am familiar with (and yes, there are great 6x6s too). There are also a lot fewer elk than the Manti unit--but maybe if you look at density of elk per square mile of elk habitat they are the same and possibly the La Sals have an edge over the Manti here. Factor in private land though and your options of public, elk country to hunt on the La Sals are a lot fewer. But that cuts both ways too. I will say this though, I would not personally burn points to draw a late season any weapon tag on the La Sals. That is an incredibly tough hunt to get lucky on plain and simple. 

Both will have their share of crowding, livestock and other issues. Both can have a tendency to be extremely hot and dry during the archery and first part of the early any weapon seasons which can make finding bulls outside of the dark timber during shooting times a challenge. 

Overall, I would also run the numbers out to see how many more years it would take to be a 1:1 (all things held constant) for each tag. My gut tells me that you could close the gap on the La Sal tag much faster than the Manti, assuming you calculated your odds properly


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

I say go big or go home and put in for the San Juan!! :mrgreen:

Mr. cake gives a good scenario that may well be worth pondering on for the next few weeks.

Myself, I'm shooting for Manti next year.


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

Well Johnny, you just talked me into holding out for the Manti 😂. It’s an archery tag I’m after, I’ll have 1 in 1 odds in the next 3-4 years


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

Ray said:


> Well Johnny, you just talked me into holding out for the Manti &#128514;. It's an archery tag I'm after, I'll have 1 in 1 odds in the next 3-4 years


How can you predict your odds that far out? There are thousands of people in your point level (assuming your at 4/5) not counting those above you. I like your optimistic outlook.

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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

You can go back pretty far on the Utah division of wildlife website and view what the draw odds have been over the years. Hasn’t changed at all in at least 5 years, I stopped looking after that.


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## weaversamuel76 (Feb 16, 2017)

Ok sorry that's not how I'm interrupting the report.
It went from 5 points to get in max point pool in 2014 to seven points to get in the max pool in 2019. A solid 2 point creep over a five year stretch.

2014 had 389 applicants for 90 tags or the Dwr calculation 1:3.9 odds
2019 had 719 applicants for 106 tags or See calculation of 1:6.8 odds

There are currently over 9000 resident applicants with 4 and 5 points. 7000 actually applied for a permit in 2019 and 2000 bought points.

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## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

I spent the last week on the La Sals. I saw a few muzzle load elk hunters but only one who harvested a bull. I am sure there were others.

The problem I see year after year, is that the elk run onto the private property CWMUs when pressured. Yeah there are still elk in the public areas, and you can pull them off with some calling in the rut, but the ones up on Redds are far more plentiful. 

That's been my observation now for the past 16 years we've hunted deer, elk, and bear there. 

Archery is a whole other challenge but that'll be true of many units.


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## johnnycake (Jul 19, 2011)

If everything remains the same as the 2019 draw it will take 4 years to clear all the resident applicants who had 3 points going into the 2019 draw. That also requires that every year 41 of the 53 random permits go to applicants that had 3 or more points going into the 2019 draw. 


The biggest problem with looking at the numbers like this are the pool jumpers. There will be a lot of the bonus point tags going to people that didn't apply for that tag in 2019, but decided to finally cash in or got tired of waiting for another better tag etc. 

If you had 3 points when you applied last winter then I wouldn't count on a Manti archery bonus point tag for at least 4 years and realistically 5-6


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## TPrawitt91 (Sep 1, 2015)

Pool jumpers like me might be a problem haha can’t blame the guy for being optimistic though


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

I get what you’re saying but I don’t think you’re giving a complete picture either. Sure, there was lots of people putting for permits and points last year, all with varying amounts of points and with completely different draw odds and all on different units. There was a total of 191 different elk hunts people applied for last year, I doubt everyone is going to stop putting in for what they’ve been putting in for to go on an archery hunt on the Manti. Year to year the growth has been steady, it didn’t just leap from the 389 figure to 719 in one year, it occurred gradually and predictably.

I’m sure it will creep up a little more by the time I draw a tag, but I can assure you it won’t be anything astronomical. Couple points, tops. Which still doesn’t put me all that far out.

Hell, my buddy drew a tag this year on the Manti with 2 points, anything can happen. Here’s the bull he shot, a 6xclub 😂. I love bulls with character and would have shot him in a heartbeat.


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## APD (Nov 16, 2008)

johnnycake said:


> The biggest problem with looking at the numbers like this are the pool jumpers. There will be a lot of the bonus point tags going to people that didn't apply for that tag in 2019, but decided to finally cash in our got tired of waiting for another better tag etc.
> 
> If you had 3 points when you applied last winter then I wouldn't count on a Manti archery bonus point tag for at least 4 years and realistically 5-6


like me. i have 9 points that i've been waiting to cash in on the central manti archery. could have drawn with 5 or 6 a few years back but haven't had time to do the proper boots on the ground. i'm thinking of burning the points on a cwmu for the kid in two years but not sure. i don't like the idea of easy gratification for newer hunters as i feel like they lose the love of the hunt.


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

You **** pool jumpers! You’re right though, it’ll realistically be 5-6 years but I’m going to remain hopeful that I draw it next year! If not, I’ll buy an ID tag.


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

So, if I've just been buying points trying to decide which unit to put in for without actually applying, does that make me a puddle jumper?


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

High Desert Elk said:


> So, if I've just been buying points trying to decide which unit to put in for without actually applying, does that make me a puddle jumper?


Yes, yes it does and don't put in for the Manti. Who am I kidding, I'll probably just start putting in for the Wasatch...

Does also make me a puddle jumper? &#129300;


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## brisket (Mar 3, 2015)

Ray said:


> Hell, my buddy drew a tag this year on the Manti with 2 points, anything can happen. Here's the bull he shot, a 6xclub &#128514;. I love bulls with character and would have shot him in a heartbeat.


That's an awesome spike! Could have shot him on a GS tag.


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

That’s what I said! He got into some monsters, but this bull presented a shot so he took it as he was limited on time.


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## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

Pool jumpers make the draw inconsistent from year to year. I see this every year on the unit I put in for.

It always amazes me to look at the draw odds when they are released seeing someone with 19-20 points pulling a tag on the unit. I love the unit I hunt, but I don't think there are any 20 point bulls there personally.

I also don't get the idea of applying for a unit you have never stepped foot on. Makes things so much more difficult! It's whoever's right to use their points how they want, but that's generally when you see posts on forums like this looking for help.


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## BPturkeys (Sep 13, 2007)

BigT said:


> I spent the last week on the La Sals. I saw a few muzzle load elk hunters but only one who harvested a bull. I am sure there were others.
> 
> The problem I see year after year, is that the elk run onto the private property CWMUs when pressured. Yeah there are still elk in the public areas, and you can pull them off with some calling in the rut, but the ones up on Redds are far more plentiful.
> 
> ...


Those of you that think the La Sals might be a good place to hunt...read this(what BigT said) over about 10 times...it's an extremely tough, small area. Sitla has pretty much destroyed the North End in their quest to make money, leaving a 75 year wait for the area to become huntable again. Nearly all Quakie forests have been clear cut and now they are starting to remove the Oak Brush as fast as they can. The only good huntable elk habitat remaining is on Private land along with virtually all the elk. 
Long before any muzzy or rifle hunt, the elk have moved onto the Redd or JB and seldom leave except under the cover of darkness.
This I know. We have hunted the LaSals every year since 1991 and even with my foot prints all over that mountain, I would really struggle to get an elk. With that said, my grandson informed me he bought a spike tag for down there this year...so I'll be down there leavin a few more prints Sun-Wed next week. Smile and wave if you see some grizzled old dude ridin around drinkin coffee and agrinnin, happy to be there one more time.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

BigT said:


> I also don't get the idea of applying for a unit you have never stepped foot on. Makes things so much more difficult! It's whoever's right to use their points how they want, but that's generally when you see posts on forums like this looking for help.


This is much more common when one is drawing in the random draw, I think. Why not take a shot in the dark with 3 points on a San Juan elk tag? But it also doesn't do a ton of good to be scouting the San Juan with only 3 points in your bag because it's going to be a LONG time until you are in the top point pool, if ever, even for archery. But you're not going to be in the top point pool for any unit, so why not take a chance? You could substitute San Juan with any number of units. I get it. Sometimes folks just get lucky when they were not planning to do so. It happened to me with my Pauns expo tag.

And pool jumpers are absolutely KILLING me on the antlerless draws. I just want to hunt. I've picked what was the prior year a 1 point cow elk unit three years in a row. I now how 3 elk points. I guess everyone has been doing what I'm doing?


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

That’s happened with my wife now two years in a row on cow elk tags. This year she drew her 2nd choice but I returned the tag.


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## High Desert Elk (Aug 21, 2012)

Vanilla said:


> This is much more common when one is drawing in the random draw, I think. Why not take a shot in the dark with 3 points on a San Juan elk tag? But it also doesn't do a ton of good to be scouting the San Juan with only 3 points in your bag because it's going to be a LONG time until you are in the top point pool, if ever, even for archery. But you're not going to be in the top point pool for any unit, so why not take a chance? You could substitute San Juan with any number of units. I get it. Sometimes folks just get lucky when they were not planning to do so. It happened to me with my Pauns expo tag.
> 
> And pool jumpers are absolutely KILLING me on the antlerless draws. I just want to hunt. I've picked what was the prior year a 1 point cow elk unit three years in a row. I now how 3 elk points. I guess everyone has been doing what I'm doing?


San Juan is over rated, I think everyone should steer clear and apply elsewhere, in fact, beginning in 2020 would be a good time to start. I had been hunting it OTC general archery and antlerless in an attempt to learn it and [not] honestly ;-), nothing to see there...


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## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

BPturkeys said:


> Nearly all Quakie forests have been clear cut and now they are starting to remove the Oak Brush as fast as they can. The only good huntable elk habitat remaining is on Private land along with virtually all the elk.
> Long before any muzzy or rifle hunt, the elk have moved onto the Redd or JB and seldom leave except under the cover of darkness.


Very good insight...They were clearing out oak brush while I was down there a week ago. I couldn't believe how much they'd cleared in the past year. I've been putting in for this unit for years, but after this year, I've been rethinking my options because of the issues you mentioned.


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## cedar (Jul 29, 2013)

Anybody know why they clearing out oak brush there?:shock: i know P/J removing improve the habitat for wildlife but not sure about oak brush.


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

Yeah, that oak brush bit is news to me


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## TPrawitt91 (Sep 1, 2015)

Vanilla said:


> This is much more common when one is drawing in the random draw, I think. Why not take a shot in the dark with 3 points on a San Juan elk tag? But it also doesn't do a ton of good to be scouting the San Juan with only 3 points in your bag because it's going to be a LONG time until you are in the top point pool, if ever, even for archery. But you're not going to be in the top point pool for any unit, so why not take a chance? You could substitute San Juan with any number of units. I get it. Sometimes folks just get lucky when they were not planning to do so. It happened to me with my Pauns expo tag.
> 
> And pool jumpers are absolutely KILLING me on the antlerless draws. I just want to hunt. I've picked what was the prior year a 1 point cow elk unit three years in a row. I now how 3 elk points. I guess everyone has been doing what I'm doing?


I had the same heartburn this year on cow elk. Now I'm up to 3 cow elk points. Most cow elk points I have ever collected.


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## Papa Moses (Sep 27, 2018)

I drew this year with 4. Don’t get your hopes up for next year 😉 on the bright side I’ve got 7 points for turkey...


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

Plan for the worst hope for the best I say. 

What on earth are you doing with 7 turkey points?!


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## Papa Moses (Sep 27, 2018)

Stockpiling i guess. I just always buy the GS tag and buy a LE point so no need to draw- just saving for a rainy day I guess... if only I could transfer them to my OIL moose tag 😂 now the cow elk idk how I didn’t draw sooner


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## APD (Nov 16, 2008)

Ray said:


> Plan for the worst hope for the best I say.
> 
> What on earth are you doing with 7 turkey points?!


saving up for the free Tofurky they give you when you reach 10 points.:mrgreen:


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

Papa Moses said:


> Stockpiling i guess. I just always buy the GS tag and buy a LE point so no need to draw- just saving for a rainy day I guess... if only I could transfer them to my OIL moose tag &#128514; now the cow elk idk how I didn't draw sooner


What unit did you put in for for cow elk?


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

APD said:


> Ray said:
> 
> 
> > Plan for the worst hope for the best I say.
> ...


&#128514;&#128076;


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## Papa Moses (Sep 27, 2018)

Cwmu


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## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

cedar said:


> Anybody know why they clearing out oak brush there?:shock: i know P/J removing improve the habitat for wildlife but not sure about oak brush.


I'm not sure exactly. But they've cleared out quite a lot. At least on the northeast side of the mountains they've done quite a lot. If I had to guess, it is to improve the grazing for the cattle.. But that's just a guess. It seemed like there were more cattle there this year than in past. Seems like that keeps ticking up. But it could be that I just happened to run into them more. Not sure.


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