# Elk hunting prediction from there 80's



## elkunited (Aug 16, 2019)

I'm reading an interesting book where the author sat down with some top skilled elk hunters based out of Montana. It was written in 1984. There was a part that I'm attaching to this post where he asked about the future of elk hunting. The hunter responded with some things I believe did come true. Check it out and would love to hear your thoughts.


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

Pretty spot on.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

The days of good hunting here in Utah are probably numbered. Urban sprawl is really taking off, and the rise in population means in the future we won't be able to draw or buy a tag as easily as we have in the past. Take deer for example. Instead of drawing a tag every other year, i'll bet it increases to drawing a tag every 2 or 3 years. General season elk tags will probably sell out in the first day or two.


I'm just guessing, though. I'm one of those, expect the worst and hope for the best types.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Just spent a week in the Bookcliffs.
Both deer and elk numbers are SHOCKINGLY LOW!

Locals claim the wild horses have destroyed winter habitat.
I believe it!
Plus spike and cow permits hurting.
We saw more wild horses yesterday coming out than we saw total wildlife numbers in a week.

The deer hunters are in for a surprise. Low deer numbers.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

I agree 100%. I made a similar comment a few years after 1984 about Pheasant hunting. All the farm land has almost been eliminated, and replaced with townhomes and subdivisions.


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## elkunited (Aug 16, 2019)

It seems we are just destroying more winter habitats by building more. That's putting a lot of pressure on these animals and not as many are surviving. I don't know if there's any way to stop other than ceasing to build.


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## stillhunterman (Feb 15, 2009)

Sad but true. Change is inevitable, and hunting is no exception and it's future doesn't look exactly bright. There is a full laundry list of negative issues facing not only our hunting heritage, but the animals we chase as well. Should the hunting community continue to maintain its current paradigm, it does indeed look bleak. Personally, being near the end of my hunting days, I'll continue to hope for the best as Lone Hunter remarked, and do what I can on an individual basis, but so much, much more will be needed...


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

While the urban sprawl issue is real, is anyone here prepared to argue that elk hunting was better in 1984 than it is today? 

Goof, lots of giant bucks coming off the Books this year. Can’t comment on overall numbers, but the deer hunters thus far have been happy. Haven’t heard much on elk.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Back in 84 the Books and Henry Mountains were 3 pt or better on the deer hunt and most of the bucks were nice ones that came off of it. The party that I hunted the Henry Mountains with wouldn't even consider a buck with a spread less than 30". 

Elk hunting was also great. All areas were open to any bull and if you did your homework you usually had no problem bringing home a branch antlered bull.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

The interview hits some key issues. Winter range in northern Utah is definitely being affected by Urban sprawl and our year round adventure culture doesn't help the wildlife either. 

Not only that but our road designs have really fragmented the seasonal habitat as well. 

There is a lot to dissect about the future prospects of elk/big game hunting out West but as others have said it's likely we'll need a paradigm shift in the next few decades. Utah could be noticeably worse given we don't have as much classic habitat as most of the Rocky Mt states and also have one of the few increases in hunter populations in the nation.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

backcountry said:


> The interview hits some key issues. Winter range in northern Utah is definitely being affected by Urban sprawl and *our year round adventure culture doesn't help the wildlife either.
> 
> Not only that but our road designs have really fragmented the seasonal habitat as well. *
> 
> There is a lot to dissect about the future prospects of elk/big game hunting out West but as others have said it's likely we'll need a paradigm shift in the next few decades. Utah could be noticeably worse given we don't have as much classic habitat as most of the Rocky Mt states and also have one of the few increases in hunter populations in the nation.


I think we have too many roads. Take the skyline drive road closure, that's a major artery; however if you know your way around well enough, it won't effect you much - there are roads going everywhere. It absolutely slays me that Herbert wanted to use last years wildfires as an excuse to plow more roads.

It's all the roads that make trailer camping possible. The vast majority of people out are in trailers, and those have a louder and larger footprint then tents. I'm guilty of it myself, running a generator at dusk to charge a battery before everyone hits the sack.

Combine all the trailer camps with generators running, with OHV's everywhere, and you've alot of pressure.

And it's all the roads, that make backpacking a moot point. Almost everything is within a 2 to 4 mile hike from a road.

So yeah, migration patterns and habitats are going to be fragmented to hell and back. I absolutely love Utah and our public lands, and It's changed my character so much that I do not think I could live anywhere without a backcountry/public lands now. However the more I've grown to know utah's public lands, the more i find myself disappointed with how tore up they really are.


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## Ray (May 10, 2018)

goofy elk said:


> Just spent a week in the Bookcliffs.
> Both deer and elk numbers are SHOCKINGLY LOW!
> 
> Locals claim the wild horses have destroyed winter habitat.
> ...


They need to start killing off the horses, they're WAY over the number of what the land can support.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Ray said:


> They need to start killing off the horses, they're WAY over the number of what the land can support.


But these are the whack-jobs pet horses. We couldn't do that.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

I had no clue there were so many different herds. Is this image accurate? If so, what a nightmare.


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## ns450f (Aug 28, 2018)

backcountry said:


> I had no clue there were so many different herds. Is this image accurate? If so, what a nightmare.


I would put money on there being more herds than that in the state. I see them every direction from St. Geoege. The az strip, all around gunlock and enterprise. As you head north and west from enterprise they get to be really abundant. 4 years ago hunting elk on the north end of the Indian peaks I saw a fowl trying to get milk from a dead mare. All the horses you see in that area look starved and sick.


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## elkunited (Aug 16, 2019)

Thanks for the conversation. Any predictions for 20 years from now?


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

The states population will have an additional 1 million people.
It will take 5 -6years to draw a deer tag instead of 2.
Elk herds will be hurting, and it will take 10-12 years to draw an archery elk tag instead of 5-7. A rifle elk tag will be tantamount to a once in a lifetime tag in how long you'll be drawing for it.
Getting a camp will be highly competitive, and you'll have to start relaying trailers with a buddy, 4 weeks before you intended to actually occupy a camp.
Wild horses will still be running free, wild horse lovers will be watching Hildalgo for the 100th time.
Sheep might be distant memory.
I'll be long gone and living in Alaska, but too freaking old to enjoy it.


Ain't I full of rainbows and sunshine?


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## Aznative (May 25, 2018)

Dang LoneHunter I just crawled in a corner and cried. But in all honesty your probably right.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

OH yeah, almost forgot, SITLA will have 10% of the state trust lands remaining in inventory, if any at all. The rest will be posted private property. -O,-


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## cdbright (Aug 24, 2016)

yea those old guys saw the writing on the wall , sad that they were right


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## elkunited (Aug 16, 2019)

Aznative said:


> Dang LoneHunter I just crawled in a corner and cried. But in all honesty your probably right.


Same here. Sigh. A move to Alaska would be fantastic, but the wife has said no several times. She's not that committed to the outdoors like me.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

In 20 years, you'll begin to see the effect of "Climate Change". Utah will be receiving less snow, and the storms we do get will be more violent. The reservoirs will be at 1/2 capacity, farm land will be gobbled up by homes. The state/feds will sell off land to "private investors"


We wont need to hunt, because the land will be private and only the man with the $$$ will be hunting. (farm raised animals)


I sure hope I'm wrong!!! Guess I'll have to take up Pickle Ball.


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## stillhunterman (Feb 15, 2009)

20 years huh? Hmmm...

By 2025 Utah will have another world record bull elk, his name will be Spidey Redux.

By 2030 CWD will have permeated the Utah deer and elk herds.

By 2035 CWD will have jumped the species barrier in Colorado, causing the first known human death.

By 2040 big game hunters will have fully transitioned to small game out of fear of CWD. Several more deaths will have happened causing the CDC to push for the elimination of hunting ungulates, followed by federal laws making it illegal. PETA, Defenders of Wildlife, Earth Guardians will have the largest public celebration ever conceived in Las Angeles, California... The then Socialist Democrat president, OAC, will push and get passed the elimination of all firearms in the US, because we don't need them anymore to hunt. Although it won't matter much cause the last Republican president fulfilled the Republican agenda of transferring all public lands to the states, and most states had already sold those lands to private individuals who eliminated all hunting on said lands...
8)


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Wow, this got bleak 😬

20 years for elk? 

Northern herds will fluctuate some in that timeframe. Climate change could benefit their winter range but their summer range will start to decrease in quality in all but the highest elevations.

Southern herds will struggle. We'll see wilder fluctuations in snow pack. Dry years will mean almost no snow up to 9k and basically meaningless totals in places like Cedar Mt and the Boulders. This will hit herds hard as habitat starts to dry out by the end of spring. Big snow years will be less common but will push record levels (250%+) and noticeably diminish herd sizes. We'll see severe winter kill as isolated but massive snow events hit critical winter range. All this leads to severe fluctuations in herd sizes year to year.

All herds will spend increasing amount of time on private lands, especially anything with agriculture. This will continue to exacerbate tensions. 

CWD is the wild card but we'll probably see it start to effect the weakest herds as it moves in from SW Colorado or from elk wintering in Wyoming. I think all western states will see CWD in elk increase from the current low average (10-14%???) to double or triple that. Prions just seem elegant enough to exploit weak herds stressed by climate change.

Within 6-8 years OTC elk tags sellout within a couple days at most. Within 12-15 years they will have managed whatever tags those are as a lottery. Reliable herds will become a once in a lifetime tag within 20-25 years.

We'll see a drop in hunter numbers in Utah within 10 years. Funding becomes a serious issue within 15-20 years.

A little less bleak but not much better 😲


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

well bring on the 2nd coming or apocalypse then, based on these above prediction


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Well, it looks like in 20 years I will have 42 elk points and still waiting to hunt the final remaining CWD infested elk left in Utah, and will be doing it in my bathing suit because long shirts and pants will be too warm for the current weather. 

Hopefully there is a branch antlered bull still in that last herd waiting for me when I get to the gate that says "No Trespassing" and I'll be able to find him after handing over my $7500 trespass fee to hunt the 640 acre section of private property that used to be federal land that I have arranged to hunt that year.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Holy Cow!! I think I'm getting depressed reading comments of bleakness along with my own comments. I hope all of us are wrong, and things get better. 


Maybe we (hunter, recreators, etc.) should purchase the land in the foothills and keep it from being developed. That way there's a glimmer of hope for the species we dearly love to pursue.


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## elkunited (Aug 16, 2019)

taxidermist said:


> Holy Cow!! I think I'm getting depressed reading comments of bleakness along with my own comments. I hope all of us are wrong, and things get better.
> 
> Maybe we (hunter, recreators, etc.) should purchase the land in the foothills and keep it from being developed. That way there's a glimmer of hope for the species we dearly love to pursue.


That's sorta my thoughts too. Man, sometimes I wish I was rich beyond rich and could buy all this land and designate it as public forever.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

I’d buy it all and keep you guys out. I’d come on here and post pictures of all MY animals though. I’m a team player like that.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

If it wasn't for the massive increase in population we are having, and even more we are due to have - my outlook would be a bit more positive. However, with increasing state population, I see everything going downhill, not just the hunting.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

Lone_Hunter said:


> If it wasn't for the massive increase in population we are having, and even more we are due to have - my outlook would be a bit more positive. However, with increasing state population, I see everything going downhill, not just the hunting.


 The increase in population is predominantly internal. Has been for a long time before the 80's.
Remember the old saying " when you point the finger at someone there are three pointing back."
Don't want more pressure on hunts? Quit talking about them. Don't encourage others to take up the sport.
Of course when less people are hunting there will be less people concerned about your privlage to hunt.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

middlefork said:


> Don't want more pressure on hunts? Quit talking about them. Don't encourage others to take up the sport.
> Of course when less people are hunting there will be less people concerned about your privlage to hunt.


That has occurred to me. There are many things in life that are a double edged sword. This last weekend I've decided that certain GPS maps, I shall no longer name, because while they help me immensely .. i'm starting to see more people in areas where I used see only 1 other hunter or none at at, in ways that are very.... I guess I'll say are exacting in knowledge. As if some other guys were looking at the exact same map I was, choosing the exact same routes.


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## provider (Jan 17, 2011)

The comments here are very disconcerting. The posted comment was about new subdivisions crowding out elk and season hunting dates would decrease (opportunities decrease.) In Utah there are more subdivisions, but there are way more elk and opportunities - the predicted elk outcome isn't even close. Hunting dates have not decreased. You can buy a bull tag over the counter with plenty of time. Meat hunter have never had it better with the cow tags. I worked in Salt Lake between 2001 & 2008. I killed 4 or cows within 20 minutes of down town during that time. The biggest hinder on the elk population in Utah is the Cattlemen's association - period!!! We'd have elk everywhere if they allowed it. All of this talk about roads, urban sprawl, crowds bla bla bla - have you noticed the elk herd has grown since 1984???? Your input / output logic is way off. Makes me want to read 1984.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

provider said:


> Makes me want to read 1984.


Ha!

When it comes to Utah wildlife (and hunter) management, it seems like Animal Farm is more appropriate for the times.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Yes
The cattlemen have raised so much cain they are the reason for the massive LEAD POISONING of our elk heards state wide.
It SUCKS!


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

If sheep fall under "cattle", then count me in on the list of haters.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Lone_Hunter said:


> If sheep fall under "cattle", then count me in on the list of haters.


Yup
Part of the association.


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

goofy elk said:


> Yes
> The cattlemen have raised so much cain they are the reason for the massive LEAD POISONING of our elk heards state wide.
> It SUCKS!


Goofy...Can you elaborate on the lead poisoning? Are you saying that cattlemen are deliberately poisoning elk using lead?


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

No. He's saying they are giving too many tags out and hunters are poisoning elk with lead. And that the association is pushing for all those tags to protect the cattle/sheep. 

Did I get that right, goof?


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> No. He's saying they are giving too many tags out and hunters are poisoning elk with lead. And that the association is pushing for all those tags to protect the cattle/sheep.
> 
> Did I get that right, goof?


That's what I was hoping for!

and a BOTP!!!!


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

Vanilla said:


> No. He's saying they are giving too many tags out and hunters are poisoning elk with lead. *And that the association is pushing for all those tags to protect the cattle/sheep. *
> 
> Did I get that right, goof?


Now there's an interesting line thought. If it wasn't illegal, I'd have mutton in my freezer. I really don't have anything good to say about mountain maggots. When I come across a dead one, I smile.


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Lone_Hunter said:


> Now there's an interesting line thought. If it wasn't illegal, I'd have mutton in my freezer. I really don't have anything good to say about mountain maggots. When I come across a dead one, I smile.


I've always wondered if their really is money in mountain maggots or is it one of those things where they make money on the tax breaks and/or subsidies.

Bottom line... get them off the mountain if it's pointless.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Ha, that's funny 

And no, 
The association has pushed to hold elk herd numbers down to objectives 

Units like the Wasatch where WAY over objective for many years..

The association forced more antlerless, including control permits.

They were shot, "lead poisoning"


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

MadHunter said:


> I've always wondered if their really is money in mountain maggots or is it one of those things where they make money on the tax breaks and/or subsidies.
> 
> Bottom line... get them off the mountain if it's pointless.


From what I'm told, there isn't much money to be made. They do their own veterinarian work because they can't afford to hire any. They're always on the knifes edge of not making much profit or just breaking even. They also import Peruvians every year to herd their sheep, (i'm assuming on work visa's) because their good at what they do, and probably work for peanuts.


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## Brookie (Oct 26, 2008)

When you can get around a dollar per lb for lambs they make money. They sell them in October. There are a lot of hundred dollar bills running around.


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## wyoming2utah (Sep 12, 2007)

goofy elk said:


> Ha, that's funny
> 
> And no,
> The association has pushed to hold elk herd numbers down to objectives
> ...


Heaven forbid people are allowed to hunt elk....


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

Lone_Hunter said:


> Vanilla said:
> 
> 
> > No. He's saying they are giving too many tags out and hunters are poisoning elk with lead. *And that the association is pushing for all those tags to protect the cattle/sheep. *
> ...


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say conservation/management decisions shouldn't be based on the welfare of domestic livestock. Let me guess, the wildlife board has a cattleman or two on it?


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## MadHunter (Nov 17, 2009)

Lone_Hunter said:


> I'm gonna go out on a limb and say conservation/management decisions shouldn't be based on the welfare of domestic livestock. Let me guess, the wildlife board has a cattleman or two on it?


But of course!


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Lone_Hunter said:


> I'm gonna go out on a limb and say conservation/management decisions shouldn't be based on the welfare of domestic livestock. Let me guess, the wildlife board has a cattleman or two on it?


Wildlife management can't escape the human dynamics of conservation. And it doesn't require cattleman to even be on the board; it's just requires such organizations to have political power in general. That can come from leveraging money or member numbers loud enough.

Given how much Utah values its rural communities and it's ranching heritage I'm not sure how a political battle against cattle and sheep will pan out for hunters. I know where I live shepherding still carries a lot of weight. I get tired of running into sheep on the hill and being harassed by their dogs but I just assume it's never going to change.


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## elkunited (Aug 16, 2019)

I've also ran into several sheep and even some that had clearly been attacked by some predator. Heritage is important, but sometimes it is harmful.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

backcountry said:


> Wildlife management can't escape the human dynamics of conservation. And it doesn't require cattleman to even be on the board; it's just requires such organizations to have political power in general. That can come from leveraging money or member numbers loud enough.
> 
> Given how much Utah values its rural communities and it's ranching heritage I'm not sure how a political battle against cattle and sheep will pan out for hunters. I know where I live shepherding still carries a lot of weight. I get tired of running into sheep on the hill and being harassed by their dogs but I just assume it's never going to change.


I'm not naive, but I am sarcastic. I know how the "good ole boy" network works.

Give it a few years, how many I can't say, but according to the Veterinarian in my family, those sheep ranchers are so tight where cash is concerned, they might not be able to survive for much longer. They cut corners where, and everywhere they can.

The reason why we see them on public lands for all of spring, summer, and into fall is because as feeding those maggots is concerned, it is far cheaper paying AUM, then in a stockyard situation. So they keep those maggots out as long as possible. If they actually had to buy feed for very long, they'd go under.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Lone_Hunter said:


> I'm not naive, but I am sarcastic. I know how the "good ole boy" network works.
> 
> Give it a few years, how many I can't say, but according to the Veterinarian in my family, those sheep ranchers are so tight where cash is concerned, they might not be able to survive for much longer. They cut corners where, and everywhere they can.
> 
> The reason why we see them on public lands for all of spring, summer, and into fall is because as feeding those maggots is concerned, it is far cheaper paying AUM, then in a stockyard situation. So they keep those maggots out as long as possible. If they actually had to buy feed for very long, they'd go under.


Referencing a lot more than "good ole boys network" with the human dynamics comment. How would we even begin to account for the fact that elk heavily migrate to private, agricultural/rangelands if we started a political battle over grazings impact on wildlife/hunting? It's taken years/decades of interacting with "good ole boys" to setup CWMUs to preserve habitat and opportunity, setting up state funds to offset depredation, etc.

We've only gotten this far through incentivizing and good faith negotiations. Hard to maintain any of that if we start challenging the well-established practice of grazing on public lands. There is a lot of critical winter habitat we could lose if we started a fight with these stakeholders.

Hence my criticism of the notion that "conservation/management decisions shouldn't be based on the welfare of domestic livestock.". I get the ideal but in reality modern wildlife management doesn't progress without taking that into account.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

I won't pretend to know all the backroom dealings that goes on with the politics involved. I just know it ain't right; but that's the world we live in. I hate the fact that politics is involved in EVERYTHING these days. There's no escaping it. So much so, that in the end, if the powers that be have their way, their won't be much public land left to talk about; and we'll all be calling ahead to the local ranger station for permission slips to enter what's left of the national forest, because only so many people will be allowed in at one time. (Yeah, that IS a thing in some places)


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