# the sky is falling



## sagebrush (Sep 8, 2007)

some of you really crack me up, with the new scope regs. i thought that obama and his lib army were bad. but the people around here are much worse.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

sagebrush said:


> some of you really crack me up, with the new scope regs. i thought that obama and his lib army were bad. but the people around here are much worse.


Pretty strong statement. Hunterst concerned about the future of their state and hunts are worse than "Obama and his lib army." Pretty close minded thought


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Oh its going to make for some dramatic shifts for sure. ML elk odds are going to go through the roof as people switch (too bad, I was getting close to drawing ML Elk), and with the cap on ML deer tags thats going to probably be even worse. I expect it to settle down a bit in 2 or 3 years when people figure out the odds are worse than rifle deer and switch back. 

I doubt people are willing to wait longer to draw a ML tag than a rifle tag just to shoot at a deer they can see better. Plus, I dont think alot of the rifle deer crowd understand how hot it is still in sept and how nocturnal the deer are. Rifle deer its usually cool enough you can hunt all day and see stuff... but ML deer, you get maybe a good hour in the morning and one in the evening and that's pretty much it.

Sky falling? No... but it will have a fairly dramatic effect IMO. Just wait till the summer odds report comes out.


-DallanC


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

DallanC,

What is your definition of 'through the roof' on the LE elk hunts? I think we'll see a little bit of a shift the first couple years, but I don't anticipate it to be significant. 

I'm just not in the camp of people that think all the rifle hunters out there are going to run out and buy muzzleloaders now.


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## ridgetop (Sep 13, 2007)

I don't think there will be much of a shift in those wanting to switch over to muzzleloader hunting because of this change. 
Maybe a few but not that many.


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## utahgolf (Sep 8, 2007)

well now all of those scope and gun combo's will sell at cabelas and scheels.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> DallanC,
> 
> What is your definition of 'through the roof' on the LE elk hunts? I think we'll see a little bit of a shift the first couple years, but I don't anticipate it to be significant.


I was getting near the top of the LE elk pool for a unit we have family property on that has alot of bulls. I honestly think this will add on another 5 years to my wait. I also think Gen ML deer for my unit which has been nearly guarenteed draw will slip to every other year.

We'll all see for sure come summer when the draw odds come out.

-DallanC


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## ridgetop (Sep 13, 2007)

DallanC said:


> I was getting near the top of the LE elk pool for a unit we have family property on that has alot of bulls. I honestly think this will add on another 5 years to my wait. I also think Gen ML deer for my unit which has been nearly guarenteed draw will slip to every other year.
> 
> We'll all see for sure come summer when the draw odds come out.
> 
> -DallanC


Why don't you just openly announce which general unit your hunting deer in and then you will still be able to draw it because we all know how bad that unit sucks, with too many hunters and very few bucks.;-)


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

DallanC said:


> I was getting near the top of the LE elk pool for a unit we have family property on that has alot of bulls. I honestly think this will add on another 5 years to my wait.
> -DallanC


I don't see a lot of people switching because of this. That said, there are units with so few ML tags issued that even 5 people switching from rifle to ML could put higher end point holders back a couple years. This very well could effect the odds on the premium units for the first couple of years, but I don't see it becoming the new trend.

I have 18 points. I have been considering for a few years switching over to a ML hunt instead of a rifle. I am still considering that. This change didn't (and won't) really impact my decision on that one way or the other. I still have to decide if I want to hunt with a ML or stick with the season/weapon I have always wanted to hunt.


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

Where's the love man, where's the love....


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## KennyC (Apr 28, 2010)

I predict no change in the ML hunts. This isn't significant enough to warrant a large change. If a scope was what shifted everyone to specific hunts the there would not be any archery hunters. With the price of ML going up over the last several years I don't think everyone is going to rush out and buy one, plus they can be intimidating to those that have never shot one. I like the fact they have allowed the scopes but this just means better shot placement.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

KennyC said:


> I predict no change in the ML hunts. This isn't significant enough to warrant a large change. If a scope was what shifted everyone to specific hunts the there would not be any archery hunters. With the price of ML going up over the last several years I don't think everyone is going to rush out and buy one, plus they can be intimidating to those that have never shot one. I like the fact they have allowed the scopes but this just means better shot placement.


I know 5 hunters that will be putting in for the ML hunts this coming year, and the main reason that they are doing so is because of the magnification of the scopes. Also what is so intimidating for those that have never shot one? All you have to do now is drop a couple of pellets down the barrel and ram a saboted bullet down the barrel, then place a 209 primer into the priming hole. No mess, no measuring, and no more worries about moisture.


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## BPturkeys (Sep 13, 2007)

Finally we can use our muzzy's for long range...500 to 1200 yards...hunting and shooting. I been checking out a new Vortex Viper PST 6-24x50 FFP for my muzzy. What you all think?


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## utahgolf (Sep 8, 2007)

nothing to be done now. Just adapt I guess. I do know even though the hunting is better during colder months. A lot of people like that warmer earlier time for camping reasons and enjoying the fall colors. I think there will be quite a few that needed that little extra incentive with an awesome scope to make the switch. There are a lot worse things in life to worry about. I'm more upset about the process than anything.


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## bossloader (Sep 11, 2007)

I spoke with a guy Saturday he said he can shoot 300 yards and hit a deer without a scope so he is buying a scope so he can hit at 500 yards I just turned and walked away shaking my head.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

The process was a joke.

I don't think some of you understand how much this can effect LE pools and max points req. Doesn't help rifle, and hurts ml.


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## Mr Muleskinner (Feb 14, 2012)

Random......if it doesn't help rifle and hurts ml what does it help? I am not in favor of it regardless but it would seem to me that without changing the tags available as a whole, if it decreases the draw odds in one spot wouldn't it have to increase it in another?


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## Dahlmer (Sep 12, 2007)

RandomElk16 said:


> The process was a joke.
> 
> I don't think some of you understand how much this can effect LE pools and max points req. Doesn't help rifle, and hurts ml.


 Should there have been more discussion? Probably.

To have a dramatic affect on LE pools the new applicants will have to come from somewhere. It won't be from the archery pool, which means that it will have improve rifle odds at least a little bit.

Looking at the odds for deer, I don't see much room for odds to worsen. Premium units require the same number of points to draw a rifle tag as an ML tag. Standard LE units have a difference of 1-2 points. If I'm 1 year away from drawing a rifle tag, I'm not going to switch over to ML for a scope.

It will be interesting to see what happens with elk units. Some do have a fairly sizable spread in points required between ML and early rifle hunts...people may switch; I guess we will soon find out. I can see a few guys switching from late hunts, which generally require about the same number of points, in order to be able to hunt the rut.


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## LostLouisianian (Oct 11, 2010)

sagebrush said:


> some of you really crack me up, with the new scope regs. i thought that obama and his lib army were bad. but the people around here are much worse.


I had no freakin idea Obama was a hunter much less a muzzle load hunter in Utah....huh crazy thing.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

RandomElk16 said:


> The process was a joke.
> 
> I don't think some of you understand how much this can effect LE pools and max points req. Doesn't help rifle, and hurts ml.


I won't defend the "process" (or lack thereof), but it is literally impossible for this to have a negative effect on the limited entry ML pool without helping the rifle. You can't apply for both here. If you're going to be switching TO one pool, you have to be coming FROM another. Dahlmer is spot on.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

People who never put in for LE rifle elk because the odds are so bad might now put in for LE ML elk cuz they think the odds wont be as bad. That's one way it would make one worse without helping the other.


-DallanC


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Mr Muleskinner said:


> Random......if it doesn't help rifle and hurts ml what does it help? I am not in favor of it regardless but it would seem to me that without changing the tags available as a whole, if it decreases the draw odds in one spot wouldn't it have to increase it in another?


I don't have time to go through Big game draw odds, but its simple. Rifle has larger groups, and require higher points to hit bonus pool. They have more bonus tags.

Looking at the Pauns for example, if just 7% of the 13 point rifle people moved over... just 7 people.. moved to ML next year. We leave the rest of the pools alone and pretend no one moves from group to group...

Before the switch... In 2018, 78% of the tags would go to ML holders with 14 points. People going into 2019 with 15 points: 18

After switch... 100% of tags go to people with 15 points. People going into 2019 with 15 points: 26

In 2020, all people with 16 points draw in 1st scenario, and a few with 15(1/3 of the bonus tags).

In second scenario, only 2/3 of 16 point holders draw. It is now a 17 point unit.

Like I said, I don't have time to research them all. This is an example of the chain if only 7 people move over. That's it, 7 of the 2923 rifle applicants. I am sure there are better examples. It accelerates the max point pool. Rifle doesn't change because these people were not going to be guarenteed to draw in the rifle example until like 2040 or something like that. They would draw in the ML example in 2016. The rifle has already accelerated to a point of large point pools that it will have 0 positive effect.

I know, no big deal. But, this was one small example on one unit with 7 people switching. It can benefit high point holders, which is great. But for guys who loved ML for what it was and understood the lower opportunity, it hurts them. They didn't wait as long, but there was a reason for the shorter line.


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## GaryFish (Sep 7, 2007)

I think we just hunt points any more, instead of hunting big game. Since I moved to Idaho, I wish I could donate my 12 bull elk points to a cop, veteran, or school teacher or something. Of course, 12 points just means that they might draw something in another 12 years. Heavy sigh. 

I guess I'll just buy my OTC deer and elk, any weapon, any season Idaho tags and be happy I'm not in the point game any more.


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## Dahlmer (Sep 12, 2007)

RandomElk16 said:


> I don't have time to go through Big game draw odds, but its simple. Rifle has larger groups, and require higher points to hit bonus pool. They have more bonus tags.
> 
> Looking at the Pauns for example, if just 7% of the 13 point rifle people moved over... just 7 people.. moved to ML next year. We leave the rest of the pools alone and pretend no one moves from group to group...
> 
> ...


I can't follow your math Random. But before we even get into the math, I have to ask why would guys on the Pauns suddenly switch from rifle to ML? In 2016, it will require 15 points to get into the bonus pool for both the any weapon and ML hunts. I have to assume anyone that prefers to hunt with a muzzleloader is already applying for that hunt.

There were 21 ML applicants and 71 AW applicants with 13 points last year. There were 11 ML and 33 AW bonus tags last year. Assuming everything stays static moving forward, moving 7 of the 13 point applicants from last year's AW pool to the ML pool would have the following impact.

*2016*

28 AW applicants remain from last years 14 point pool...they will all draw and leave 5 tags for the 71 applicants in the 13 point pool which equals 7.04% odds.

If we subtract 7 applicants from the AW hunt there are now only 64 applicants for the 5 remaining tags resulting in 7.81% odds.

2 ML applicants remain from last years 14 point pool.. they will both draw and leave 9 tags for the 21 applicants in the 13 point pool which equals 91.67% odds.

If we add 7 applicants from the AW hunt there are now 28 applicants for the remaining 9 tags resulting in 57.89% odds.

For 2016 this results in slightly better odds for AW applicants and slightly worse odds for ML applicants.

*2017*

66 AW applicants for 33 tags vs 59 AW applicants for 33 tags = 50% odds vs 55.93%.

12 ML applicants for 11 tags vs 19 ML applicants for 11 tags = 91.67% odds vs 57.89%.

*2018*

33 AW applicants for 33 tags vs 24 AW applicants for 33 tags = 100% odds in both cases and we have moved through a bonus pool.

0 applicant removed from the next bonus pool (80 applicants) vs removing 7 applicants from the next bonus pool.

1 ML applicant for 11 tags vs 8 ML applicants for 11 tags = 100% odds in both cases and we have moved through a bonus pool.

Removed 10 applicants from the next bonus pool (22 applicants) vs moving 3 applicants being removed from the next bonus pool.

*2019*

80 AW applicants (12 point pool) for 33 tags vs 73 applicants for 33 tags = 41.25% odds vs 45.21%.

12 ML applicants (12 point pool) for 11 tags vs 19 ML applicants for 11 tags = 91.67% odds vs 57.89%.

2020

47 AW applicants for 33 tags vs 40 AW applicants for 33 tags = 70.21% odds vs 82.50%.

1 ML applicant for 11 tags vs 8 ML applicants for 11 tags = 100% odds and we have moved through another bonus point pool in both cases.

10 applicants removed from the next bonus pool (22 applicants) vs 3 applicants being removed from the next bonus pool.

Each case results in slightly better odds for any weapon hunters and slightly worse odds for ML hunters. It would require hunters to move consistently year after year after year for the impact to be lasting and significant. But again...Why would they? Particularly as eventually it would be easier to draw an any weapon tag. It just doesn't make sense.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

I did it based on the 2014 numbers since 2015 aren't on big game draw odds. 

I didn't move 7 from the highest pool, that would make no sense. I moved 7 from the 12 point AW pool in 2014, that had 98 applicants. Which at the rate of 33 tags aren't guaranteed for some time.. but in ML they would be guaranteed. This would push everyone in the ML pool because they would take 7 tags and allow the point pools to all advance an extra stage, but not benefit the rifle because they were 1. From a lower pool 2. In a large pool.

I didn't break mine down like you because I didn't have time for that. By the time these 7 were noticed being out of their really large pool, they would effect odds maybe a percent or two on a given year and would not slow the bonus pool advancement.... but would change odds a large percent in ML.


I picked some random unit and spent a few seconds. But it isn't hard to see a couple people from each pool moving over to ML. Some would even be in the top ML pool like the example above, but have no effect on the pools for AW. Why switch? Earlier tag with a modern inline ML with any magnification scope - nuff said. Save the 5K some would spend on a guide and buy a custom ML with all the ballistics mapped out for you. Don't even have to reload to have a custom load lol.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

And you are wrong about the guarantee:

With 2014 numbers, in 2016 ML there would be 14 people with 14 points. 11 tags.

In 2016 AW there would be 48 people with 15 points. 33 tags. 

In ML you are guaranteed with 15. In AW you are not.


Like I said, this hurts ML but in no way can benefit AW by more than a couple percents at BEST for 1 year because nothing will slow the mas point pool growth. Only thing that will help rifle, given the size of the pools is more tags. The effect of less people over the next 2-3 years will be NIL.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

I think the November general season ML elk hunt just got more popular.....


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## Dahlmer (Sep 12, 2007)

Why would you base your projections off of 2 your old data? 2015 odds do not agree with your hypothesis at all. It required 15 points to guarantee both AW and ML tags in 2015. If we assume that trend continues (which I understand is dangerous) they will both require the same number of points through 2019 regardless of whether 7 applicants move from AW to ML or not.

Both the Henries AW and ML hunts last year required 19 points to guarantee a tag in 2015 as well. I'm not going to do the math on that one, but the point is the most recent data indicate that your premise is false.

I'm guessing the difference between 2014 and 2015 is the multi season tags that were offered in 2015 for the first time. It seems likely that a number of high point rifle hunters moved over to that hunt.

It could have more of an impact in LE units like the Book Cliffs and Vernon where there can be a point or 2 difference between AW and ML tags. Only time will tell, but I'm not sure that very many guys are going switch unless there is a significant decrease in time required to draw a tag.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Dahlmer said:


> Why would you base your projections off of 2 your old data? 2015 odds do not agree with your hypothesis at all. It required 15 points to guarantee both AW and ML tags in 2015. If we assume that trend continues (which I understand is dangerous) they will both require the same number of points through 2019 regardless of whether 7 applicants move from AW to ML or not.
> 
> Both the Henries AW and ML hunts last year required 19 points to guarantee a tag in 2015 as well. I'm not going to do the math on that one, but the point is the most recent data indicate that your premise is false.
> 
> ...


Edit: new numbers see below

You guys underestimate what a multi powered scope will do. Heck some guys said they can't see through a 1x, this will effect them right? And other guys want opportunity, and this will help them. Most units require a couple more points for rifle, and it will get worse.

You mention the henries, look at the pool sizes. Look at the 17 and 16 point pools. That tag will never have a max pool after a couple years so bad example lol. The tags can't keep up.

Edit: why are the bonus points skipping pools in both odds? People surrender tags?

Looking at 15 data. In 2018 1 person in ML will have 16 points, 22 with 15. That pool of 22 will have 10 draw in 2018, 11 in 2019, and the last one in 2020 with 17 points.

In 2018, 33 AW will put in with 17. 80 will have 16. That pool of 80 will have 0 draw in 2018, 33 in 2019, 33 in 2020, and the final 14 in 2021 with 19 points.

A couple people switching from AW with 15 points in 2018 changes everything. Even more so in the years after these pools. This can all happen faster with any switches next year. The trends are not the same. The max pool for rifle will increase at a faster rate than ml, even with more tags.


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## sagebrush (Sep 8, 2007)

it seems that what ever the dwr/wb/rc does none of you will ever be happy. pissing  and moaning  is all this leads to.  
if you're so worried about shooting an elk, buy an archery tag or a general season tag.

i guess you just need to figure out how to play the system instead of crying all the time.


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## 7mm Reloaded (Aug 25, 2015)

:lalala:


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

sagebrush said:


> it seems that what ever the dwr/wb/rc does none of you will ever be happy. pissing  and moaning  is all this leads to.
> if you're so worried about shooting an elk, buy an archery tag or a general season tag.
> 
> i guess you just need to figure out how to play the system instead of crying all the time.


What a silly comment. Did you watch the WB? We aren't even talking about the RAC or dwr first of all... 3/5 RAC voted against this we are talking about the WB. The way they handled the matter. It's perfectly fine to discuss how your "elected officials" handle things. In fact, it is important to. If you ignore it for to long you have no voice.

It isn't crying to discuss important issues. It is ignorant not to, and then double down by acting a certain way towards those that are concerned. No one is forced to participate in our talk. "Playing the system" is a strange thing to resort to, why don't we fix the system instead?


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

Ignore my comment sage.. I remembered you are the OP so I don't expect much from you.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

Random, I appreciate your passion on the subject but most of the posts on this thread are how the guys that traditionaly put in for the MZ tags are going to get screwed out of "their" tags by a rifle hunter.
Is the WB broken? Most on this forum would agree it is. The question would be how are you going to change the process?
Unless you are running for Governor I don't think you or any of us is going influence the WB. I know I don't have the money it takes to bribe them.
They were going to revisit the preference point loophole. Did they do that? No. Earlier this year everybodies comment was until its changed play the system. You have to be a fool not to. Well now there is another new rule so that people can now see if the can find another way to game the system. Get used to it.
Funny thing is I was putting in for a LE muzzy elk tag for years until I realized I would be too old to do it justice by the time I could guarantee to draw. I drew an Archery tag with 2 more points than was needed in the unit I applied for. Sorry I screwed someone who only applied for archery. Such is the game. You cannot predict with any accuracy how many people are going to switch units or weapons on any given year. Only complain that they might.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

middlefork said:


> Random, I appreciate your passion on the subject but most of the posts on this thread are how the guys that traditionaly put in for the MZ tags are going to get screwed out of "their" tags by a rifle hunter.
> Is the WB broken? Most on this forum would agree it is. The question would be how are you going to change the process?
> Unless you are running for Governor I don't think you or any of us is going influence the WB. I know I don't have the money it takes to bribe them.
> They were going to revisit the preference point loophole. Did they do that? No. Earlier this year everybodies comment was until its changed play the system. You have to be a fool not to. Well now there is another new rule so that people can now see if the can find another way to game the system. Get used to it.
> Funny thing is I was putting in for a LE muzzy elk tag for years until I realized I would be too old to do it justice by the time I could guarantee to draw. I drew an Archery tag with 2 more points than was needed in the unit I applied for. Sorry I screwed someone who only applied for archery. Such is the game. You cannot predict with any accuracy how many people are going to switch units or weapons on any given year. Only complain that they might.


The only way to make a change is to be loud. If you look at our societal changes, 2 events that are almost exactly the same can get completely different attention and outcomes based on how society, especially locally, responds.

More people need to go to the RAC meetings and the WB and use the 10 seconds they give you to comment. More people need to write letters. Will it work? Maybe not. If you look at the spike hunt being removed on the Monroe though, it did. There was no real data on the matter either. Our state is giving out MASSIVE amounts of elk tags, presumably with the goal to kill more elk. Maybe 1-eye, and others, have had success simply from being so vocal.

If you read all the threads on this issue, I am not against it because of the switch of point holders. If someone wants to draw a tag they deserve to with a bunch of points. They have waited 15+ years. However, the switch is more desirable because they took away one of the last features keeping the hunt "primitive" and they did so against the recommendation of "the people" (the RAC's). This does hurt the traditional muzzleload hunter because there will be a new crowd of high tech ML affecting the draw. And by law that is their right. But lets be real, its basically an early AW hunt now. The big concern is the did it with no discussion and no data as to why. They just figured, what the heck. Makes you think there was some other motive behind it.

They didn't fix the preference point because not enough people are making a point to. 1 person showed up to the wildlife board, addressed an issue with his cwmu and the tag distribution, and now they are reviewing all the cwmu distributions. Why? Because ONE person showed up to speak.

It won't end the world, but I felt the need to respond to those who blindly justify it by giving them real data on why some have the position against it.


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## sagebrush (Sep 8, 2007)

RandomElk16 said:


> If you read all the threads on this issue, I am not against it because of the switch of point holders. If someone wants to draw a tag they deserve to with a bunch of points. They have waited 15+ years. However, the switch is more desirable because they took away one of the last features keeping the hunt "primitive" and they did so against the recommendation of "the people" (the RAC's). This does hurt the traditional muzzleload hunter because there will be a new crowd of high tech ML affecting the draw. And by law that is their right. But lets be real, its basically an early AW hunt now. The big concern is the did it with no discussion and no data as to why. They just figured, what the heck. Makes you think there was some other motive behind it.
> 
> They didn't fix the preference point because not enough people are making a point to. 1 person showed up to the wildlife board, addressed an issue with his cwmu and the tag distribution, and now they are reviewing all the cwmu distributions. Why? Because ONE person showed up to speak.
> 
> It won't end the world, but I felt the need to respond to those who blindly justify it by giving them real data on why some have the position against it.


sorry the majority of the people i believe was 57 percent wanted the change. also if you so desire to use a cap and ball muzzle loader go ahead no one is stopping you from doing so.

just because you feel that its not right to use a scope with more magnification than a 1x (by the way is a joke) of a scope. are you going to complain when they let everyone start using cross bows in the archery hunts? which is probably coming real soon. and use scopes on their sights as well.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

sagebrush said:


> sorry the majority of the people i believe was 57 percent wanted the change. also if you so desire to use a cap and ball muzzle loader go ahead no one is stopping you from doing so.
> 
> just because you feel that its not right to use a scope with more magnification than a 1x (by the way is a joke) of a scope. are you going to complain when they let everyone start using cross bows in the archery hunts? which is probably coming real soon. and use scopes on their sights as well.


The majority of what? A couple people that got the survey via email? Or the elected RACs? 66% of RACs said NO. Learn your facts.

I can't make sound decisions based on a small surveymonkey I send out. And if that is the basis for 1 decision, they need to be uniform and use that for every decision. Can't pick and choose which results you want to honor.

If you would read, it isn't just me and it isn't just about magnification. For the 20th time, it is the process. Rather than coming on here to point fingers and call names, spend some time and watch the WB meeting. You could learn something.

And yeah, crossbows with built in range finders and scopes would be a joke.


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## sagebrush (Sep 8, 2007)

your whole rant is about magnification. if the regs would not have been changed then you wouldn't be here complaining.


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## RandomElk16 (Sep 17, 2013)

sagebrush said:


> your whole rant is about magnification. if the regs would not have been changed then you wouldn't be here complaining.


Discussing. You are complaining that others are discussing. There is a difference.

My "rant" has been a number of examples regarding effects. But my initial basis on the other threads, the one you called us worse than obama libs for, I said it is the process that was disturbing. My latest posts have been responding to people saying it will have 0 effect on the draws, which simply isn't true. That hasn't been my basis for being upset. It was a response. Re-sponse.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

I'm certain that the impact will be felt most on the LE elk. More so than the LE deer for sure. 

In 2015 it took an average of 12.2 points for a rifle LE deer tag and 11.2 points for a LE muzzleloader deer tag. The gap between the two is just not that big (in my opinion), I wouldn't image there's a whole lot of jumping between the two simply because of how close they already are. Side note... it took an average of 10.7 bonus points for a LE archery deer tag so it seems to me like guys who want to hunt with one weapon or the other are already applying for their preferred weapon and won't really be incentivized to switch by saving much time.

The LE elk pool on the other hand could be where crap hits the fan! Last year it took an average of 15.2 points for an early rifle tag, 11.2 points for a muzzleloader tag, 11.1 points for a late rifle tag, and 6.0 points for an archery tag. I can see numbers of guys jumping from both the early and late rifle tags into the muzzleloader pool. The early rifle guys will do it to be able to draw the tag a few years earlier, and the late rifle guys will do it so that they can hunt in better weather and the rut. I'm not saying that I think it will be a mass exodus from the two rifle pools into the muzzleloader pool... but I do think that the number of guys on the top end of the bonus point spectrum that would be open to switching is enough to be significant.

Just like with other changes it will take a couple of years to reestablish the trends and they will change it again.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> The LE elk pool on the other hand could be where crap hits the fan! Last year it took an average of 15.2 points for an early rifle tag, 11.2 points for a muzzleloader tag, 11.1 points for a late rifle tag, and 6.0 points for an archery tag. I can see numbers of guys jumping from both the early and late rifle tags into the muzzleloader pool. The early rifle guys will do it to be able to draw the tag a few years earlier, and the late rifle guys will do it so that they can hunt in better weather and the rut. I'm not saying that I think it will be a mass exodus from the two rifle pools into the muzzleloader pool... but I do think that the number of guys on the top end of the bonus point spectrum that would be open to switching is enough to be significant.


Especially when ML bullets loose so much energy so fast at range. Tipping a deer over at 300 is a hell of alot easier than doing the same thing to a bull elk at 300.



> Just like with other changes it will take a couple of years to reestablish the trends and they will change it again.


Yes, especially in regard to ML regs. We have some pretty wild rule changes go into effect only to be kicked to the curb the following year. I really wouldn't recommend dropping alot of $$$ on a ML scope that you only get to use for a year ;-)

-DallanC


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