# What to do with 18 elk points?



## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

What would you do with 18 elk points on a Monroe permit? Is it worth trying to draw an early rifle or would the muzzleloader hunt be worthwhile? The muzzleloader hunt is drawable, the early rifle is really getting some point creep.


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## Iron Bear (Nov 19, 2008)

The muzzy would be a fantastic hunt.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

With the ML Scope change expect alot of rifle people with more points to jump ship. I'll bet 18pts isnt near enough now for ML seasons.


-DallanC


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

Looking at the dates, I would go with rifle.

Rifle: Sept 17-25

Muzzleloader: Sept 26 - Oct 7

The Monroe Unit lowered the age class to 6.5 this year, so there may be some additional permits given away this year. 

I doubt a lot of people will jump ship to the ML, because of the dates. 
If the dates were like last year, I would bet that more people would jump ship.

Full Disclosure: I put in for Monroe NR Early Rifle this year, in hopes they give out 3 NR tags rather than the traditional 1.


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

DallanC said:


> With the ML Scope change expect alot of rifle people with more points to jump ship. I'll bet 18pts isnt near enough now for ML seasons.
> 
> -DallanC


I don't have a clue how many people will switch from rifle to muzzleloader, but it seems unlikely that you will draw a bonus muzzleloader tag for the 2016 season. If all of last year's applicants come back, there will be 1 with 19 points and 5 with 18 points (not including you) competing for a couple of bonus tags. One person jumping in ahead would really change things if two bonus tags are offered like last year.

It's difficult to say how much sooner you'll get your tag applying for muzzleloader vs. rifle in the long term. It will be interesting to see how much impact the ML Scope change has when the draw stats come out later this year.


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## #1DEER 1-I (Sep 10, 2007)

This isn't for me it's for someone I know, I am in no where near the position to draw so I didn't really know what to tell them. It seemed like last year during the muzzy hunt the Bulls were actually bugling more but it looks like the dates will be different this year and the rifle is definetly the better hunt. I do remember they changed the age objective so I'm expecting more tags this year to be released as well. The early rifle had over 1700 people put in for 4 permits last year, I thought that was pretty amazing. I was just looking at how the point creep is getting and didn't know whether it would be worth them sticking with the early rifle in hopes than more tags are allocated and people jump ship to muzzleloader or if muzzleloader would be the hunt worth trying. Last year I would have said yes, this ear without knowing the amount of tags or how the muzzy scope will affect things I don't really know what to tell them.


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## 2full (Apr 8, 2010)

Last years the bulls were bugling clear thru the first week of October. I shot my bull on the open rifle on the 5th, and he was talking a bunch. And, heard others after that. So they could still be quite active for this years muzzle date.


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## goofy elk (Dec 16, 2007)

At the current rate of applicants and permits,
18 points wont touch an early rifle bonus tag on Monroe for another decade....


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## silentstalker (Feb 19, 2008)

goofy elk said:


> At the current rate of applicants and permits,
> 18 points wont touch an early rifle bonus tag on Monroe for another decade....


Even longer than that... If he has 18 points now, there are 77 applicants with more points than him and 49 equal with him at 18 points. Thats 20 years under those numbers before his pool of 49 hunters gets a shot at a bonus tag.

He would have a 1 in 6 chance at a muzzy bonus tag. For me its a no brainer until we see what effects the scope change will have on the odds. His best odds will still be with the muzzy.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Early rifle is a long ways out, unless he can get lucky. Like was stated, 77 applicants with more points than this person. 4 bonus tags given per year. 

Muzzy is a possibility, but not guarantee. Based strictly on last year's numbers (which are likely to change this year), there will be 1 person with more points and 5 with same points...for 2 bonus tags.


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## Muley73 (Nov 20, 2010)

It will be interesting to see if the tag numbers go up or not. When the WB voted on that age objective John Bair stated , just because the age class was dropping to match the Dutton and Fishlake it did not mean more tags would be given for the Monroe. Time will tell.


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## Springville Shooter (Oct 15, 2010)

18 points is a lot. Me thinks I'd go kill a monster bull on another unit......unless I had some special reason to hold out for the Monroe. -------SS


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## Hoopermat (Dec 17, 2010)

Give them to those who don't have very many points. 


Socialism


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## MWScott72 (May 23, 2011)

Does your friend want to hunt before he's up for retirement? Look at the success rates. Early rifle averages about 94% over the past 3 years. Muzzy is at 84%. That would make up my mind right there. The bulls will be bugling into the second week of Oct, and with the later dates, there is a better chance for cooler weather which lights a fire under the elk. Early rifle can be a warm hunt. It's great no doubt with a rifle still, but the rut isn't as intense at times.

I'd go muzzy!!


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## shanescottoutfitting (Feb 10, 2016)

*Monroe*

For 2016, 18 points you will not go wrong with the following IMO:
Boulder Muzzleloader
Fillmore Pahvant Late
Beaver Late
Southwest Desert Muzzleloader

It looks like you should have a good chance at the Monroe muzzleloader in the next 3 years along with the Beaver Muzzleloader and the Fillmore Pahvant Muzzleloader.

I wish I had your dilemma. Good luck! SS


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## Springville Shooter (Oct 15, 2010)

shanescottoutfitting said:


> For 2016, 18 points you will not go wrong with the following IMO:
> Boulder Muzzleloader
> Fillmore Pahvant Late
> Beaver Late
> ...


Welcome to the forum. Its about time we had another SS around here.----SS


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## shanescottoutfitting (Feb 10, 2016)

SS
Boom, there you go Springville Shooter.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

Good dilemma to have!

Like many have already mentioned the early rifle tag is still a long ways out (19 to 32 years) based off 2015 data. The muzzleloader is only a couple years away (1 to 3 years) but who knows how the new scope ruling will affect that. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see some of those guys with 19 or 20 points jump over to the muzzleloader tag now... although the later season dates could temper that a bit. And we'll just have to wait and see if they add any tags at all to go with lowering the age objective... my money says they do not even if by the letter of law they should.

Unless your (friend's) heart is set on the Monroe I'd add the Book Cliffs early rifle, Boulder muzzleloader, La Sal multi-season, and Fishlake/1000 Lakes multi-season. These should all draw this year with 18 points (I hedge my get on the Boulder muzzleloader just because of the new scope thing though... I think the muzzleloader draws are going to be a mess this year).


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

I wonder if the draw odds in some units are bad, because tag services apply people to all the same unit.


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## silentstalker (Feb 19, 2008)

MuscleWhitefish said:


> I wonder if the draw odds in some units are bad, because tag services apply people to all the same unit.


I think its this in addition to magazines like Eastman's MRS, plus location to general populace, and "hot spotting". Monroe/spider bull type thinking.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

MuscleWhitefish said:


> I wonder if the draw odds in some units are bad, because tag services apply people to all the same unit.





silentstalker said:


> I think its this in addition to magazines like Eastman's MRS, plus location to general populace, and "hot spotting". Monroe/spider bull type thinking. .


Interesting thoughts... I think the application services and hunting magazines definitely influence where hunters apply, specifically non-residents. 
It's interesting to look at the number of applicants and see which units actually had more non-residents apply than residents!

Beaver, East (archery) - 103 resident apps, 152 non-resident apps
Book Cliffs, Little Creek Roadless (archery) - 81 resident apps, 95 non-resident apps
Fillmore, Pahvant (archery) - 159 resident apps, 160 non-resident apps
San Juan (archery) - 224 resident apps, 440 non-resident apps
Beaver, East (muzzleloader) - 125 resident apps, 138 non-resident apps
San Juan (muzzleloader) - 216 resident apps, 279 non-resident apps

Ironically, each of these units show up in the magazines and application guides year after year as "the best places to hunt trophy elk" in Utah... there's definitely some influence there.

I mean good grief, the San Juan archery had almost double the number of non-resident applicants than resident applicants! That could also be a product of the odds being so terrible for the non-resident that some applicants may think that since they will likely never draw anyway that they're going to go big or stay home... so they throw their application at what most publications deem the Holy Grail of units.


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## willfish4food (Jul 14, 2009)

derekp1999 said:


> That could also be a product of the odds being so terrible for the non-resident that some applicants may think that since they will likely never draw anyway that they're going to go big or stay home... so they throw their application at what most publications deem the Holy Grail of units.


Go big or go home is the boat I'm in. I don't really have $800 extra to spend on a hunt, but if I pulled a Monroe or San Juan tag I would scrape the money together. So instead of just applying for a point I'll probably either apply for the San Juan Early or the Monroe early. With the points I have, the odds of drawing one of those based on last year are 1:2276 and 1:367, respectively.

If I had more money at my disposal, I'd apply for a unit with better draw odds, and hopefully actually draw. But, until then it's all or nothing.

Then again, if I actually drew, I'd feel kind of like a jerk, since some people actually want to hunt that specific unit for big bulls, and I really don't care where I hunt; I just want to hunt elk. 380 or 180, my first elk will be a trophy to me.


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## dkhntrdstn (Sep 7, 2007)

DallanC said:


> With the ML Scope change expect alot of rifle people with more points to jump ship. I'll bet 18pts isnt near enough now for ML seasons.
> 
> -DallanC


didnt they change that rule a year ago ? They only changed that for GE hunts now.


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## derekp1999 (Nov 17, 2011)

dkhntrdstn said:


> didnt they change that rule a year ago ? They only changed that for GE hunts now.


They previously allowed a magnifying scope on a muzzleloader if you hunted during the any weapon hunt.

Now a magnifying scope can be used on a muzzleloader during the muzzleloader specific season.


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## rutting (Jul 11, 2008)

I had 18 points last year and didn't draw the Monroe Muzzleloader. I think with the hunt dates. More people will apply for the rifle. So I now have 19 points and cant decide what to do


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## MuscleWhitefish (Jan 13, 2015)

rutting said:


> I had 18 points last year and didn't draw the Monroe Muzzleloader. I think with the hunt dates. More people will apply for the rifle. So I now have 19 points and cant decide what to do


Best Early rifle dates, which you can use your muzzleloader during the better hunt dates. With the last 3 years with harvest percentage and ages of bulls harvested. Monroe only exceeded an average age class of 7 last year. It is a high success hunt with easy access.

Book Cliffs Bitter Creek (Max 18 this year)

Last 3 years.

82% with 7.1 age

89% with 7.3 age

92% with 7.9 age

Book Cliffs Roadless (Max 18 this year)

Last 3 years.

90% with 7.1 age

96% with 7.3 age

96% with 7.9 age

Filmore Pahvant (max 22 this year)

Last 3 years.

82% with 6.9 age

89% with 7.3 age

92% with 7.6 age

Plateau Boulder Kaiparowits (Max 19 this year)

Last 3 years.

93% with 7.4 age

87% with 7.6 age

80% with 7.9 age

San Juan (max 22 this year)

Last 3 years.

84% with 7.3 age

87% with 7.3 age

100% with 8.3 age

Southwest Desert (max 19 this year)

Last 3 years.

88% with 7.3 age

96% with 7.6 age

85% with 7.6 age


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