# When will it stop??



## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Drove by a gas station yesterday and saw the price of diesel fuel went from $5.09 to $5.19 a gallon. When will these inflated fuel prices stop??? Just the cost of fuel has increased my monthly spending budget an additional $150. Something has to give!


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

The price of crude has been down for a few weeks now. We aren’t seeing a difference at the pump as a result. I’ve got my theories, but they don’t involve blaming my “political enemy” so I’m not sure anyone wants to hear them.


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## BigT (Mar 11, 2011)

I have been thinking the same thing. How is fuel higher than when the oil was at it's peak a few weeks ago? They say that it takes 2-3 weeks for the prices to be impacted at the pump... Which by my estimation should be headed down at this point rather than up.. Funny thing is, when the oil prices change going upward, it's not 2-3 weeks before the price is increased, it's 2-3 minutes.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

It seems if anything happens, like a conflict, (such as the Ukraine invasion) "chicken Little" appears and the world economy gets all jacked up and panic begins. The USA may not be involved with the conflict militarily, but it sure is impacting the country as if we were involved.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

BigT said:


> I have been thinking the same thing. How is fuel higher than when the oil was at it's peak a few weeks ago? They say that it takes 2-3 weeks for the prices to be impacted at the pump... Which by my estimation should be headed down at this point rather than up.. Funny thing is, when the oil prices change going upward, it's not 2-3 weeks before the price is increased, it's 2-3 minutes.


Bingo! Much more at play here than what many wanted us to believe and be outraged about.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

I wonder if anyone has noticed the price increase and decreases with the fluctuation of the barrel of oil over the last bunch of times that things have gone up and down.

The last dozen times that I have watched it no matter who is in office the price of gas and diesel will go up as the price of a barrel of oil goes up and then even if the price of a barrel of oil goes down quite a bit the price of gas and diesel will trickle down. Perhaps not as fast as it went up but slowly. 

I have no reason why the prices will spike upwards so fast. The oil that they are refining has already been purchased at the lower price per barrel. But once it hits the top and the price of a barrel starts down the oil that they are refining was paid for at the higher price so it will take a while before those lower prices that the refinery pay start to show up at the pump. 

Then there is the old American greed factor for anyway that you look at it. But there is a lot to be factored into it that us commoners never see.

My problem is draining the nation oil reserve for a temporary fix and not doing anything about looking at replacing the oil in the reserve.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Critter said:


> I have no reason why the prices will spike upwards so fast.


Because they can. It's really that simple.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Fuel is certainly a concern... and I expect it to get worse. There are shortages now in other countries and riots.

Bigger concern is still the semi-conductor shortage. Anyone notice the news a few days ago that both GMC and Ford shut down their truck productions? The single most profitable vehicle type for them, and they had to stop production. Its a temporary shortage, but still the fact they had to shut down is worrying.

Just wait till the Fed raises interest rates at the next meeting. We have an entire generation that expects < 3% interest as a way of life. They're in for a shock if we get back to early 1980s 18% inflation.

Computers are skyrocketing in price, as are components like video cards and hard drives (SSDs). I just had a laptop repaired that I had written off... because suddenly its worth 2x what it was worth and now worth repairing.

I was on Noslers site looking for Accubond information, they've raised their costs to over $60 a box for 7mm for both Partitions & Accubonds. Idk what the stores will mark them up to... but, you still cannot buy any. Not even from Nosler.

I thought we were in rough shape a year ago... but it seems different now, and not in a good way.

-DallanC


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Dallan, you mention Nosler not having anything in stock for sale to the retailers or consumer, Microchips for the vehicles, SSD boards and other computer components. This is what I am believing.... There is no way on this great Earth that companies are not producing products to sell, or, have the means of producing the items. I think these business are holding back the production, creating a false economic crisis so they can create the demand for a product, then hiking the cost of said items at an inflated increase just to make there wallets thicker. 

It's not just the oil/fuel price that is outrageous, but the cost of all groceries. Fuel surcharge hits the retailer from the trucking companies that are then passed on to us, the consumer. I can go without fuel for the truck and boat by staying home and/or limiting my number of outings. But, one has to eat and 90% of the public doesn't have the acreage to grow food or have cows, pigs, etc. to be self sustainable. I'd go out on a limb and say that the majority of the public wouldn't know how to even go about being self sufficient with growing there own food. 

I remember back in 1978 when the interest rate was at 21% for a mortgage. But then again a home only cost an average of $20,000 and the minimum wage was $2.80 an hour or close to that.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

taxidermist said:


> Dallan, you mention Nosler not having anything in stock for sale to the retailers or consumer, Microchips for the vehicles, SSD boards and other computer components. This is what I am believing.... There is no way on this great Earth that companies are not producing products to sell, or, have the means of producing the items. I think these business are holding back the production, creating a false economic crisis so they can create the demand for a product, then hiking the cost of said items at an inflated increase just to make there wallets thicker.


I dont think they are holding back. They could be making a GREAT profit right now, but are not. There's a real shortage on materials.

I remember we had discussions not that many years back on potential bullet shortages when the last big lead mine in the US closed down. Fast forward, now there's a shortage on bullets. A coincidence? Look at the price of Copper... its sky high. Enough that people are now buying COPPER bullion to invest in! Not gold, not silver... Copper!! Oh good grief



Buy Copper Bullion Bars & Rounds - Best Prices | JM Bullion™



There's a war going on... how many bullets does Nosler make for various military contracts? Maybe they make more money doing that than hunting bullets. IDK.



> It's not just the oil/fuel price that is outrageous, but the cost of all groceries. Fuel surcharge hits the retailer from the trucking companies that are then passed on to us, the consumer. I can go without fuel for the truck and boat by staying home and/or limiting my number of outings. But, one has to eat and 90% of the public doesn't have the acreage to grow food or have cows, pigs, etc. to be self sustainable. I'd go out on a limb and say that the majority of the public wouldn't know how to even go about being self sufficient with growing there own food.


Check out what's happening with regard to US Chicken and Turkey production. Worst Avian flu since 2015 raging right now, and they are killing birds by the millions to try and stop it. Eggs in stores are up 40% since January. This was on todays morning news.

We're already rearing our replacement flock for our own chickens (they are 2.5 years old, time to rotate). We'll butcher the existing hens in the next couple of weeks to move the new ones out to the coop.

Anywho, expect poultry prices to keep rising rapidly, that includes eggs. Expect all prices to keep climbing.

-DallanC


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

I still have a couple months before my Black Star birds begin to drop eggs.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

When is it going to stop?

Not anytime soon. From the sound of things as of late, fuel is going to be just one problem of many in the coming months. Personally, I'm on information burnout. Every... Effing... Day... nothing, and I mean NOTHING but bad news. One, after another, after another. I'm at the point where I need to bury my head in the sand for a week or so.

Anywho, the likelihood is high, that things are going to get a lot worse before they get any better. If the country survives the next few years, I wouldn't expect to see anything resembling an improvement until a half a year or a year after the 2024 elections, assuming they haven't been "Fortified" again.

On a side note, that 8.1 liter gasser of mine. I think I know why it was made to begin with, cause MoGas is still cheaper then diesal, even though its a freaking gas hog. Not good though, interstate commerce and the entire logisitcal JIT system, lives on diesel.


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

In the meantime, oil producers are reporting record profits. Go figure.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Fowlmouth said:


> In the meantime, oil producers are reporting record profits. Go figure.


And why would that be???


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

Futures are a pretty big deal. Companies trying to hedge their operating costs for fuel and raw materials.
Companies can't find people to work. Contrary to popular belief the world doesn't run by everybody working from home.
A lot of glitches in the supply chain up and down the board.
Public policy and public perception creates it's own problems.
Very few people can be self sufficient any more. There are too many people.

This is almost as good as fixing the deer herd.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

taxidermist said:


> And why would that be???


Development costs were paid for years ago... and they haven't had to raise all workers salary's yet to follow inflation. Once you start adjusting salary's to make up for inflation, everything again gets even more expensive. The past decade or so we've had deflation and everyone is addicted to it. Cheap everything... now we're on the flip side.

Hope everyone got out of or nearly out of major debts. Get a garden planned out. You can raise potatoes and tomatoes on a deck in a 5 gal bucket if need be. We're going to try 'taters again this year using potato bags. Last years try in just the garden didn't go all that well.

-DallanC


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

DallanC said:


> Hope everyone got out of or nearly out of major debts. Get a garden planned out. You can raise potatoes and tomatoes on a deck in a 5 gal bucket if need be.* We're going to try 'taters again this year using potato bags. Last years try in just the garden didn't go all that well.*
> 
> -DallanC


Ditto on potatos. We did well on Tomatoes, zucinni, cucumbers, bell peppers, green beans, carrots last year. Currently have starts going under a growlight in the basement. Have already planted onions, carrots, peas, lettuce. Most frost hardy. Planting day is mothers day. We've 5 chickens, and for my small family its more then plenty. 4 to 5 eggs a day stacks up fast. Their about a year old now, we got them last spring at cal ranch. Should get another couple years out of them hopefully.

I feel for all those families buying into all those townhomes with zero yard.

Id suggest building a small metal (and well ventilated) shed for flammable storage, and store some MoGas with some stabalizer in it. You'll never store enough, but if the pumps ever go down for whatever reason (cyber attack for instance), having enough gas for a tank or two is a good idea. Just don't store that crap in your garage. Nobody wants to be the next poor slob making the local news with a housefire.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

I was very pessimistic last month but I'm less so now. Gasoline is down nationally the last 10 days or so, though nowhere approaching pre-invasion costs. A lot of volatility in the market but it tends to end in stable place each day.

My guess is we'll see a slow creep until Memorial Day and then roughly stable again. I'm guessing it won't get anywhere near the costs of my original fears. 

My biggest concern is our household's raise didn't keep up with real inflation. Real wages are down nationally. We'll weather the next year but we'll feel the heating fuel cost next winter and continue to reduce travel despite getting a new car with 50% better gas mileage. 

We are in for a turbulent ride for a while but it's not looking dooms dayish. My guess is most households will cut back on commodity purchases for a few years. There will be disruptions across sectors but people will adapt. 

That's unless things go completely sideways in Ukraine.


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## CAExpat (Oct 27, 2013)

Ukraine is an excuse, this is the result of continuously pumping trillions of dollars into the economy out of thin air, and forcing the country (and world) to a standstill over a nasty virus. Virus gonna virus, let it do its thing. Once again, government has proven to be completely incapable of "fixing" the problems they created. But, I'm sure everyone enjoyed the "free" money last summer, time to pay the piper.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

CAExpat said:


> But, I'm sure everyone enjoyed the "free" money last summer, time to pay the piper.


Personally I saw the stimulus checks along with the child care checks as swapping the "writing on the wall", with a neon sign. We took the majority of that "free" money and bought things to make us more self sufficient, or into backup plans in case everything went sideways. (My neighbor I think bought a huge swing/playground set that takes up half his yard.. very stupid) I mean really, those $250 child care checks, per child, nation wide in addition to stimulus checks?! That should have been a klaxon going off in peoples heads.

edit: (side note: we already did our taxes, we don't owe a dime of it back in any "official" capacity with the IRS. All that money will be paid for in other ways. I knew that as we were getting the ****, but what were we to do? Send it back? Regardless if we did the right thing, the majority of people wouldn't, so the only logical conclusion was to try and make it work for us in the long term )


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## CAExpat (Oct 27, 2013)

Lone_Hunter said:


> but what were we to do? Send it back? Regardless if we did the right thing, the majority of people wouldn't, so the only logical conclusion was to try and make it work for us in the long term )


Absolutely not, and I should have clarified; you, myself, and many others did the right thing and prepared for the storm we're in now. I too had neighbors buying the most ridiculous crap. When this all kicked off, we liquidated probably 95% of our "stuff" in exchange for provisions and things of which we could potentially barter (I obviously kept all my fly rods, because, I might need all of them to procure fish). Seriously though we're well restocked and ready to ride it out. Just gotta get the chickens going, I have full freezers but I don't eat anything out of the garden except the herbs


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## CAExpat (Oct 27, 2013)

Also just to clarify, the root cause of this was not the bribe sent out to constituents, it was ALL the other money that you and I have no idea where it's going. We sold our economic souls for a few hundred bucks, and the stupid, stupid idiot average dope has talked about an incident at an award show for the last 3 weeks.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Tatters in a bucket/bag have never worked out for me. Tried it two years in a row and it just didn't work for me. Tatters aren't that much to purchase and I can grow other items that would take the space of a tetter garden.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

taxidermist said:


> Tatters in a bucket/bag have never worked out for me. Tried it two years in a row and it just didn't work for me. Tatters aren't that much to purchase and I can grow other items that would take the space of a tetter garden.


Like what? I've tried all kinds of things. I'm looking for a crop type that produces a huge amount in a tiny space. Zucchini is one plant that does this, the amount of harvest from a single plant is ridiculous. Carrots haven't done well, they are stubby things. Tomatoes we get more than we need. Looking for something else to try. Corn is so-so. We've done it, but had alot blown over during summer storms. Thought about trying beans but IDK their yield is worth it.

Looking for "Bang for the buck" type crop types. We'll do Zucchini, Tomatoes, peppers, maybe try some more carrots in the corner, tater bags along the back fence... and iDK what else.

-DallanC


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

I think that any seed that you place into the ground is a crap shoot on what it is going to yield. 

My brother in law was a farmer from way back down in Vineyard before the freeway took away his dads farm and home. Every year at his home in Orem he would plant potato's, parsnips, carrots, tomatoes, summer squash, banana squash, and a few other things. About the only thing that he would grantee were his tomatoes and squashes. His carrots and parsnips were a guessing game. One year they were OK and the next they were short and big. He even imported nice black loamy soil from his uncles farm down in the lake bottoms with no luck of really growing things. Most of his potato's were not that big but they were good.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Toyota just announced they are cutting production by 1,000,000 vehicles. Things are seemingly collapsing in the auto industry. Ford, GM truck production lines halted. Toyota dropping another million vehicles.

-DallanC


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## CAExpat (Oct 27, 2013)

DallanC said:


> Looking for "Bang for the buck" type crop types. We'll do Zucchini, Tomatoes, peppers, maybe try some more carrots in the corner, tater bags along the back fence... and iDK what else.


Cucumbers and okra come to mind. You can always do greens too; mustard, collard, chard (swiss and rainbow) have thrived for us in N. Utah.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Isn't this the start of year 3 for the world economy and society crumbling and none of it has manifested?

Horrible things have happened, like the Ukraine invasion and a million Americans dying early from a virus, but our economy has proven to be resilient nonetheless. American workers are transitioning to new jobs at high rates & working as hard as ever.

The reality is America and Americans are capable of weathering a lot, as we've now shown. I believe we are exiting a period of unusual plenty and entering a more historically common period of economic uncertainty. It was bound to happen. I'm disappointed my daughter won't likely have it as financially stable but they'll figure out the balance. We always do.

Until then my household may be recreating less but is managing. Just fewer day drives to Panguitch. Makes me value the days I get up there (and closer) even more.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Yeah, there are certainly issues that we are dealing with and will continue to have to deal with. Inflation is real. Rising costs impacting how we live our lives is real. The chance of going into a recession is certainly not zero. Inflation is usually corrected by a recession eventually, unfortunately. (Let's hope not, or at least hope it is not equivalent to the inflation itself if the recession does come.) The auto industry is getting hit pretty hard in new production, and that is driving up the cost of used cars like crazy! Looks like the winners here will be mechanics because all of us that drive older cars will be looking to fix and maintain older cars rather than go buy new cars like we may have been prone to do before this insane price hike.

I love the gardening ideas. I don't have a ton of room but we always try to do zucchini and tomatoes, and maybe something else. The "something else" has never really worked for us, but we'll figure something out this year. 

Being prepared is ALWAYS a good idea. Getting out of debt is ALWAYS a good thing. Remember, the time to build the ark is before it starts raining...

That said, some of ya'll need to take a valium and settle down.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> Looks like the winners here will be mechanics because all of us that drive older cars will be looking to fix and maintain older cars rather than go buy new cars like we may have been prone to do before this insane price hike.


If there aren't enough parts to make new vehicles you think there will be alot of parts to fix old ones? Look at the Catalytic Converters situation... if you had one stolen on your vehicle the back order is over 10 months right now. Now people in some areas are having holes drilled in fuel tanks to steal gas... there's a shortage of fuel tanks now.

One auto body repair channel I follow recently said you cant make any money repairing a Copart wrecked car, dealers are buying them just for the parts.

A major ford dealer was just caught taking their brand new trucks arriving to their lot, and reselling in the auction for massive markups. Rental places are paying way too much over msrp for dealers to now sell to public (they are restricted from selling over msrp to the public... so to get around that, they just auction off the new vehicles to the non-public).

-DallanC


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Dealers are restricted from selling over MSRP? That must only be Ford if so as every hybrid and PHEV I looked at for two weeks was $3k or more above MSRP. Most dealerships are advertising such prices openly on their websites. It's why we ended purchasing a new Subaru as almost all the gas money savings of a hybrid was lost with such a markup.

Their definitely are supply chain issues. There is also high demand. Sadly China has done multiple lock downs this year that has affected just about everything production and shipping related.

Life goes on. We fix old computers instead of buying new. We nurse old cars along or buy new models that are available for production. Most people aren't having their catalytic converters or their gas tanks drilled. Those behaviors sick but really aren't the norm. 

The US is producing a ton of fossil fuels. We are still energy independent. Prices suck for consumers but our energy sector is cranking and could likely benefit from more and more countries cutting Russia's fuels off. 

And we do well with tomatoes, cucumbers, kale and tomatillos here. Problem is knowing how much to grow because of the drought and taking on our share of the burden to reduce water usage.


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

Vanilla said:


> Yeah, there are certainly issues that we are dealing with and will continue to have to deal with. Inflation is real. Rising costs impacting how we live our lives is real. The chance of going into a recession is certainly not zero. Inflation is usually corrected by a recession eventually, unfortunately. (Let's hope not, or at least hope it is not equivalent to the inflation itself if the recession does come.) The auto industry is getting hit pretty hard in new production, and that is driving up the cost of used cars like crazy! Looks like the winners here will be mechanics because all of us that drive older cars will be looking to fix and maintain older cars rather than go buy new cars like we may have been prone to do before this insane price hike.
> 
> I love the gardening ideas. I don't have a ton of room but we always try to do zucchini and tomatoes, and maybe something else. The "something else" has never really worked for us, but we'll figure something out this year.
> 
> ...



No kidding. The deer herd is in shambles, the elk have an unsustainable bull:cow ratio on many units, point creep and LL holders will take away my fishing license, and the technology committee will reduce our outdoor activities to hunting and fishing with a loincloth and spear. Not to mention the world is going to heck and we all will starve in our nonfunctional vehicles we can't get running or replace. 

I used to come on UWN to get a break from the news and the worlds stresses. Now I turn on the news to get a break from UWN.  

Plus this thread (and my wife) is a reminder to get off my duff and start working on the garden.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

Can y'all plant this early up there? I've always waited until Memorial Day but I think that may be too conservative anymore. We are going to till and prep our beds next week though.

*Glad I got out of big game hunting before the loin clothe mandate. So it everyone else. There will already be too many dad bods roaming around as is.


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## Catherder (Aug 2, 2008)

backcountry said:


> Can y'all plant this early up there? I've always waited until Memorial Day but I think that may be too conservative anymore. We are going to till and prep our beds next week though.



Peas could probably go in now. MY FIL has had his in for about 10 days (in Delta). For the rest, I do usually wait till about Mothers day, depending on the forecast. 

I usually prep my garden plot around now however.


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## Daisy (Jan 4, 2010)

I have leeks, shallots, garlic, carrots, lettuce, spinach, beets and radishes in the ground now (Salt Lake County). Though I did cover the last couple of nights. My tomato's (4 varieties) and peppers (Habanada and Buda's) are all at least 6" now, from which I started from seed in early Feb. They will go in the ground with walls of water within the next two weeks. I don't have a lot of ground planted, maybe 200 sq ft, but I also utilize pots almost exclusively for the peppers and herbs. 

Plant now, it's time.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

My dad used to start tomato plants the first of April. He would move the plants around inside the house as the sun moved around to where they had sunlight just about all day long. There was one year that he almost had tomato's on the plants when he finally took them outside to the garden.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

I've been watching morning temps... its still <32F most mornings. Its getting closer but still too early to plant. I do need to till the garden again and air it up. When it goes fallow for winter, we throw the chicken droppings on there when cleaning out the coup. That lets it start breaking down over winter and soaking in, then give it a good tilling and the ground is ready to go, all natural.

-DallanC


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## runallday (Sep 17, 2018)

Fowlmouth said:


> In the meantime, oil producers are reporting record profits. Go figure.
> [/QUOTE
> 
> taking advantage of market sentiment and the result is pretty blatant price gouging to honor their commitments to their share holders and in the process the consumer flips the bill it’s capitalism as it’s finest.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

DallanC said:


> Looking for "Bang for the buck" type crop types.


I try to grow items that I can place in straw in cold storage. I've had great success with squash's, like Banana, Spaghetti, Butternut. They take up room and need to be "hilled" but they produce a great crop. Grow them along a fence and they will climb the fence. Make a strong fence! some of the banana can grow to 3' long and close to 15 pounds. Cabbage is a good crop. I've planted them in the August and throw straw over the plant followed with a concrete blanket. I have picked cabbage in December before.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Some new model truck orders are now 72 weeks out for delivery. Order today, you might get one a year from Christmas.



-DallanC


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

taxidermist said:


> Cabbage is a good crop. I've planted them in the August and throw straw over the plant followed with a concrete blanket. I have picked cabbage in December before.


There's a thought. I'm not usually a fan of cabbage, but my wife found a really simple recipe and that the family likes. Lettuce hasn't done well for us, too many bugs and I'm not a fan of using pesticides on my food. We've tried ladybugs and preying mantus's to control them with poor results. Cabbage would be a bit more hearty.

My wife grows alot of green onions and peppers, those usually all grow great. And you can dehydrate them and keep them longer for cooking. They hold up frozen pretty good too.

As for cold weather growing. There are quite a few people in Alaska with youtube channels and some clever greenhouse techniques using plastic and pvc pipe to double wall insulate the grow area. They get some pretty impressive temps inside well into December while still growing things.

-DallanC


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

DallanC said:


> Some new model truck orders are now 72 weeks out for delivery. Order today, you might get one a year from Christmas.
> 
> 
> 
> -DallanC


That’s not typical, however. There are places you can walk on a lot and drive a new truck away today. You just might not get all the options and colors you want. Special specific orders are going to be an issue for a bit. Count the cost vs the wait on how much you need that specific option, I guess?


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

DallanC said:


> Some new model truck orders are now 72 weeks out for delivery. Order today, you might get one a year from Christmas.
> 
> 
> 
> -DallanC


wouldn’t that make it a used truck? 2022 and get it in 2023 or 2024. I have wondered about all the brand new Ford trucks from 2020 sitting in a lot waiting for chips. Hell, they’re 2 years old now. By the time they get parts they will be several years old. Maybe that’s why Ford shut down production on the F 150, maybe they know people will want a reduced price for a new truck that is 2 or 3 years old.


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## backcountry (May 19, 2016)

I doubt we'll see many reduced prices for a while. Demand just continues to exceed supply. We put in an order for a new car because models with 100k miles and 7 years old were coming in at 10k less than brand new with the features we actually wanted. And 1-2 year old models were costing more than new in places, I assume for the convenience of being on the lot. Online shops like Carvana barely get photos up before the car is prepaid. It's a crazy market.

Most places I called across the country are tacking on a premium for new well over the MSRP, commonly $3k over but often even more. And that's on top of the kits they add at the dealer that cost a ton for the consumer but are cheap for them. 

As long as the shipping container barge doesn't catch on fire and sink we'll have our 2022 by mid summer. Next time we'll definitely be getting a PHEV but just wasn't in the cards this go round.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> That’s not typical, however. There are places you can walk on a lot and drive a new truck away today. You just might not get all the options and colors you want. Special specific orders are going to be an issue for a bit. Count the cost vs the wait on how much you need that specific option, I guess?


Boy IDK about that. I've been watching for a truck for 6 months now. I've talked to multiple dealers and they say they its really rare to have a non-"pre-sold" truck hit the lot since early last year. Even on KSL dealers are listing new trucks being built as soon as they get the VIN #, and they get sold almost immediately. Maybe there is a rare cancellation at the last moment and they put a truck on a lot, but this is not the norm.

Late last year GMC and Ford both said they expect the market to remain this way through 2023. Same model year used trucks with 20-50k miles are selling within 7k of MSRP of a new one.

Maybe dealers of some MFG types are able to have some new vehicles on lots... but certainly not GM or Ford.

Look at this inventory... just about every thing "for sale" is still "in transit". Which means the VIN was created, and its being built or just built, but not at the dealer lot yet. They are selling this fast.









%CITY% - %VEHICLE_SEARCH_PAGE_KEYWORDS_CAP_FIRST_LETTER% Vehicles for Sale


Test-drive a %VEHICLE_SEARCH_PAGE_KEYWORDS% vehicle at our %CITY% dealership! Drop by %DEALER_NAME% now!



www.slvbuickgmc.com





-DallanC


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## CAExpat (Oct 27, 2013)

backcountry said:


> *Glad I got out of big game hunting before the loin clothe mandate.


Please don't give the industry any ideas, I can already envision the "influencers" generating endless nauseating content about "running" the new Sitka Ogilvie Codpiece in Optifade...


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

DallanC said:


> Boy IDK about that. I've been watching for a truck for 6 months now. I've talked to multiple dealers and they say they its really rare to have a non-"pre-sold" truck hit the lot since early last year. Even on KSL dealers are listing new trucks being built as soon as they get the VIN #, and they get sold almost immediately. Maybe there is a rare cancellation at the last moment and they put a truck on a lot, but this is not the norm.
> 
> Late last year GMC and Ford both said they expect the market to remain this way through 2023. Same model year used trucks with 20-50k miles are selling within 7k of MSRP of a new one.
> 
> ...


I heard a rumor the other day, that some dealerships were inflating the price over the MSRP as much as 10K. because of the demand. I was also told that the manufacture (Ford I think) threatened to pull the dealerships inventory if they were found inflating the price. Don't know if that was true, or, just someone's "wishful thinking".


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

taxidermist said:


> I heard a rumor the other day, that some dealerships were inflating the price over the MSRP as much as 10K. because of the demand. I was also told that the manufacture (Ford I think) threatened to pull the dealerships inventory if they were found inflating the price. Don't know if that was true, or, just someone's "wishful thinking".


So yes, absolutely some are selling way over MSRP. But depending on the manufacturer, its against their dealer contracts.

Both Ford and GM already sent out letters telling dealers to cease and desist the over MSRP thing or they will lose their contracts and be dropped as a dealer.









Ford and GM Warn Dealers to Stop Charging So Much for New Cars


Auto makers are trying to curb the practice of adding fees to the suggested retail price, saying the tactic could cost dealerships future vehicle inventory.




www.wsj.com





Dealers are however, making major $$$ with their "dealer adds" like window etching, bumper / hood protective wrap etc etc. So keep a close watch on their pricing.

PS: Add Hyundai, KIA and Genesis to the "letters to dealers" list






-DallanC


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Dealers all across the land were charging above MSRP. I know someone looking for a sprinter van that couldn’t find one anywhere from Colorado west, at ANY dealership, that wasn’t $20k over MSRP. 

I didn’t realize they had contracts in place to prevent that. A whole crap ton of dealers are going to be in the hot seat if that’s case.


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## middlefork (Nov 2, 2008)

And here I thought MSRP was an inflated price to begin with. Who'd of thought.


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

We picked up a new SUV a couple weeks ago after being on the waitlist for nearly four months - boy am I glad we got on the waitlist then and not now!

I felt that the dealership we went with, Murdock Hyundai, was very straight forward and easy to work with. No price gouging, no above MSRP, none of the bs that other dealerships have a reputation for trying to pull. 

In a couple years, I'll be in the market for a new truck... by the look of things, I may need to get on the list now!


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

CPAjeff said:


> In a couple years, I'll be in the market for a new truck... by the look of things, I may need to get on the list now!


With prices of new trucks you better start selling blood for what it looks like they are going to cost.

I've just been wondering how much it's going to cost to keep my 26 year old truck on the road


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

Critter said:


> With prices of new trucks you better start selling blood for what it looks like they are going to cost.
> 
> I've just been wondering how much it's going to cost to keep my 26 year old truck on the road


I figured I'd sale on kidney and that should help offset the price of a new truck!!


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

CPAjeff said:


> I figured I'd sale on kidney and that should help offset the price of a new truck!!


I'm old enough that I should be able to get along with just one, I may have to see what they are going for 

Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Kidneys are not in line with inflation. You’ll be lucky to buy the tires!


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## CPAjeff (Dec 20, 2014)

Vanilla said:


> Kidneys are not in line with inflation. You’ll be lucky to buy the tires!


What is this world coming to?!?!?! A guy can't even sale his extra kidney for some good coin anymore . . . 😲


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Vanilla said:


> Kidneys are not in line with inflation. You’ll be lucky to buy the tires!


That's the trouble, I need to buy tires too

Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Critter said:


> I've just been wondering how much it's going to cost to keep my 26 year old truck on the road


I actually explored the cost of buying a older truck with a Duramax engine & trans from a wreck, putting those into a nice 1Ton Chevy Silverado Square-body. As the truck is such an old model, you could gut all the modern egr and other emissions crap from the motor. You could replace all the drivetrain bearings, brakes, all steering components and have a nice tight chassis for under 1k with money left over.

Problem is though, lots of other people are doing that, or buying wrecks to part them out as there are shortages. Wrecks are stupidly expensive if it says DIESEL on the title under the FUEL section.

-DallanC


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

I guess I lucked out purchasing my Cummins Diesel in 2019. I picked up the last "leftover" long bed 4 door 2018 they had on the lot. Drove off the lot paying $36,850.00. Guess we will be saying...."Boy those were the days". And it's only been three years ago. 

I would have thought diesel fueled vehicles would been dropping in price with the fuel pushing close to $5.25 a gallon.


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## Critter (Mar 20, 2010)

Diesel trucks have been the new grocery getter vehicles for a long time now and I don't think it is going to slow down any. I have seen way too many diesel trucks with dual wheels with a sleeper box on the back where they will never haul a 5th wheel trailer and if you look at the trailer hitch it has never been used. 

Plus diesel trucks are the cool vehicle to have for the 16-30 year old group. I am on a diesel truck forum and most of the first questions that are asked are "how do I make it smoke"

Even the higher fuel prices don't keep these people from buying them. But I do know that when I take mine out I'll usually have at least one person come up to me and offer to purchase it even without a for sale sign in the window. This last February down in Arizona I had two offers.


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

Rollin smoke is lame. Just sayin.


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

taxidermist said:


> I would have thought diesel fueled vehicles would been dropping in price with the fuel pushing close to $5.25 a gallon.


That and the upcoming interest rate hikes. I talked to a dealer Saturday, and asked that question. He said there's no drop in orders. If someone can afford a $100,000 truck, they don't care about fuel costs.

-DallanC


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

DallanC said:


> If someone can afford a $100,000 truck, they don't care about fuel costs.


I had this exact thing typed out and decided to just stick to rollin smoke is lame. 😂


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Vanilla said:


> I had this exact thing typed out and decided to just stick to rollin smoke is lame. 😂


100% lame.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Critter said:


> Diesel trucks have been the new grocery getter vehicles for a long time now and I don't think it is going to slow down any. I have seen way too many diesel trucks with dual wheels with a sleeper box on the back where they will never haul a 5th wheel trailer and if you look at the trailer hitch it has never been used.
> 
> Plus diesel trucks are the cool vehicle to have for the 16-30 year old group. I am on a diesel truck forum and most of the first questions that are asked are "how do I make it smoke"
> 
> Even the higher fuel prices don't keep these people from buying them. But I do know that when I take mine out I'll usually have at least one person come up to me and offer to purchase it even without a for sale sign in the window. This last February down in Arizona I had two offers.


I've had one chevy, one ford diesel truck over the years, I am now on my 5th Cummins truck (I just like them over the other two manufactures) and had two gasser fords before buying my 2018. Honestly, I don't know how I did it without a diesel truck. The gassers just couldn't get the job done pulling anything over 6K it seemed. My current Ram, doesn't even know its pulling anything less than 10K. And it gets 18mpg pulling my 22' boat and 21 on the freeway without a load.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Vanilla said:


> I had this exact thing typed out and decided to just stick to rollin smoke is lame. 😂


If you have the cash to pay 100K for a truck, you don't have a retirement plan worth $20. That is if your not making over 300K annually. And if you did make that kind of money, why would you spend it on a truck that will fall apart someday?


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## DallanC (Jan 13, 2009)

Ford has 53,000 vehicles sitting unfinished due to lack of parts. They have 200,000 outstanding orders they are backlogged on. Ford also just lost $3.1 billion in the first quarter.










GM Might be in worse shape, they just announced a "Stop Sale" on trucks with the new L5P duramax engines. They call it a "hydro lock" issue... which any engine mechanic will tell you that means bad head gaskets (coolant leaking into cylinder). What's worse, is its such a prevalent problem, GM is going to "buy back" already sold trucks from customers. That is incredible, shows how serious this issue is... and how extensive repairs can be.

Back orders on GM duramax trucks are already up to a year out, now they are going to force people who just got new trucks to "re-queue" to buy a new one? Or try to compete with the insanely over priced used truck market? A year or two old GMC duramax truck with $40-50k miles is priced within $2-3k of a new one, just due to lack of availability for new ones.

SMH...

-DallanC


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## 3arabians (Dec 9, 2014)

DallanC said:


> Ford has 53,000 vehicles sitting unfinished due to lack of parts. They have 200,000 outstanding orders they are backlogged on. Ford also just lost $3.1 billion in the first quarter.
> 
> View attachment 151874
> 
> ...


 here’s an article on the GM duramax buybacks for those interested. 






GM To Buy Back Silverado HD, Sierra HD Over Engine Issue


GM Authority has learned that GM intends to buy back certain Chevy Silverado HD and GMC Sierra HD trucks back from customers due to engine quality issues.




gmauthority.com





This seems like a worst case scenario for the truck market given all the shortages. 

I’ve never felt so good about owning my paid off 2006 F350 6.OH NO! diesel. I’m really glad I spent all that money to fully bulletproof it 6 years ago. Looks like I’m gonna need it for years to come! 


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

After reading all that, I'm not sure if I love, or hate that 2001 8.1 L gasser of mine. I must not like it, it sits most of the time.

In any event, I'd just like to take a moment and summarize 2022 in three words:
Brace for impact.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

Buckle up boys, very good chance it's gonna get very bumpy soon enough.






JPMorgan Sees Gas Prices Hitting $6.20 By August | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com












Gas prices will surpass $6 nationwide by August, JPMorgan says


JPMorgan analysts warned in a research note Tuesday that prices could surge another 37% by August, reaching a national average of $6.20 per gallon.




www.foxbusiness.com





Since diesel is the lifeblood of our economy, i'm sure the domino effect is obvious. This might be the year my 8 year old learns there's no such thing as santa and fairies, though my wife might have something to say about that.


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## bowgy (Oct 10, 2007)

Like my friend said years ago on one of the fuel price hikes, yep it's expensive but I can buy all I want, when I was stationed in Germany in the 70's we had ration cards that we could only buy so much per month.

The thing I hate now is sometimes I have to run the card through 4 times to fill up the truck because it shuts off at $100


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## hondodawg (Mar 13, 2013)

On the aviation side it’s expensive. Each airport varies in price. But one leg we took 3597 gallons @ $4.60 gallon. 


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## Vanilla (Dec 11, 2009)

hondodawg said:


> On the aviation side it’s expensive. Each airport varies in price. But one leg we took 3597 gallons @ $4.60 gallon.


Because I have no frame of reference, I’m curious how long of a flight this equates to? What type of flight time are we talking about for ~3600 gallons?


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## hondodawg (Mar 13, 2013)

Vanilla said:


> Because I have no frame of reference, I’m curious how long of a flight this equates to? What type of flight time are we talking about for ~3600 gallons?


Sure. This was a 4hr flight from Hartford ($4.60)to Denver($5.36) We left with 36,000lbs of fuel. Because the fuel was cheaper in Hartford the company elected to tanker an extra 7,500lbs to save money on the next flight out of Denver. A lot of bean counters have matrixes to compute savings and fuel burns. 


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

Im forming the opinion that it isn't going to stop, EVER, and it's by design. Remember that green new deal? I think their backdooring it in. They'll destroy the economy in the process, but the idealogues that are Bidens handlers are going to do it. Defense production authorization on solar panels..... kind of a clue where their priorities are, and it's not in making gasoline cheaper. Once the trucking industry crumbles from the shear weight of it all, that's when things are going to get mighty interesting.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Trucking companies wont "crumble" at all. The fuel surcharge is passed on to the consumer. I'm glad I don't own my Kenworths any longer! Fueling every other day at todays price would be $1400 each time I'd roll in for fuel. Where it once would cost me $325 to take on 240 gallons. That alone, will keep inflation climbing. 

I'd hope that in the upcoming elections, voters have had enough, and oust the incumbent senators and law makers. Time to do a deep cleaning in the senate.


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

Lone_Hunter said:


> After reading all that, I'm not sure if I love, or hate that 2001 8.1 L gasser of mine. I must not like it, it sits most of the time.
> 
> In any event, I'd just like to take a moment and summarize 2022 in three words:
> Brace for impact.


I can't say I miss my Ford Superduty with the V-10. I'm happy I sold it in 2020. I only put 5,000 miles on it from 2012-2020.


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## Lone_Hunter (Oct 25, 2017)

taxidermist said:


> Trucking companies wont "crumble" at all. The fuel surcharge is passed on to the consumer. I'm glad I don't own my Kenworths any longer! Fueling every other day at todays price would be $1400 each time I'd roll in for fuel. Where it once would cost me $325 to take on 240 gallons. That alone, will keep inflation climbing.
> 
> I'd hope that in the upcoming elections, voters have had enough, and oust the incumbent senators and law makers. Time to do a deep cleaning in the senate.


Ive been hearing that alot of owner/operators have been eating the cost increase, but are running out of money before the actual increase is effectively passed off to the consumer, and they see the return on those increases. Not sure how that works honestly. Also that a lot of owner/operators have thrown in the towel and quit. In an industry already short on drivers, this can't be good.


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## taxidermist (Sep 11, 2007)

Lone_Hunter said:


> Ive been hearing that alot of owner/operators have been eating the cost increase, but are running out of money before the actual increase is effectively passed off to the consumer, and they see the return on those increases. Not sure how that works honestly. Also that a lot of owner/operators have thrown in the towel and quit. In an industry already short on drivers, this can't be good.


A new OTR tractor is going for $210,000 now. At 6-8 mpg average, it doesn't take long to eat into the profit. When I purchased my first LTW 900 KW in 2001, my payment for the tractor alone was $2,100.00 a month. After freight insurance at 1M, truck insurance, IFTA for 48 states and fuel I was paying out close to $3K a week. I'd run my butt off and gross 8-10K a week. When your out 8-10 weeks before coming home for a three day break, it gets old in a hurry. I had an escrow account that was set up for the truck that money was placed into to offset the cost of maintenance for the truck. 

I'm still waiting for the Owner Ops to get together and start blocking fuel islands and loading docs. 

I've seen a few Owner Op's that have signed on with a BIG trucking company in order to offset the cost of fuel. You don't make as much, but the company is the one eating the fuel cost. If I were still driving, no way in hell would I sign a contract with a distributor at a set freight cost. It would be the freight, plus fuel surcharge. When your running from coast to coast, fuel prices can vary by $2 in some states. California being the highest price. 

The last time I fueled my last KW before selling it, I paid $1.23 a gallon in Laramie WY. It's been a while for sure.


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