# Don't tell anyone



## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

It looks like we get to apply for swan permits in July this year:

http://wildlife.utah.gov/2016-crane-grouse-swan.html

Don't tell anyone. If this stays off of the forums and out of the public eye, everyone will miss the deadline and our draw odds will go up.


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

You can have mine! I don't put in for the draw anymore. However, I do like to help others get theirs.;-)


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## dkhntrdstn (Sep 7, 2007)

well there it went. now every one knows great. o well i hope we draw four tags this year.


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## Dunkem (May 8, 2012)

Do you have to do the swan certificate every year?


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## dkhntrdstn (Sep 7, 2007)

Dunkem said:


> Do you have to do the swan certificate every year?


no one time thing


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## Dunkem (May 8, 2012)

dkhntrdstn said:


> no one time thing


 Thanks, thats what I thought.


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

Fowlmouth said:


> You can have mine! I don't put in for the draw anymore. However, I do like to help others get theirs.;-)


With the way the draw odds are looking these days, I'd say we could use a few more good folks like you. :mrgreen:

My dad should draw with 2 points. I have 1, and I just need to decide if I want to try to draw as well, or save my hunt for next year.


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## JuniorPre 360 (Feb 22, 2012)

Clarq said:


> With the way the draw odds are looking these days, I'd say we could use a few more good folks like you. :mrgreen:
> 
> My dad should draw with 2 points. I have 1, and I just need to decide if I want to try to draw as well, or save my hunt for next year.


You'll most likely need 3 points based off of last year's results unless you're lucky. I remember in the good old days it was $5 and you always drew a tag. Either way, I wouldn't put in. Everyone knows there aren't swan in Utah. 
http://wildlife.utah.gov/waterfowl/pdf/2015_swan_odds.pdf


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## dkhntrdstn (Sep 7, 2007)

Dunkem said:


> Thanks, thats what I thought.


your welcome


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## curlycoyote (Sep 11, 2015)

JuniorPre 360 said:


> You'll most likely need 3 points based off of last year's results unless you're lucky. I remember in the good old days it was $5 and you always drew a tag. Either way, I wouldn't put in. Everyone knows there aren't swan in Utah.
> http://wildlife.utah.gov/waterfowl/pdf/2015_swan_odds.pdf


How did you come up with it will take 3 points. The odds on the link only show how many put in and how many got a tag. I can't find any breakdown by points that folks have. Did you find that somewhere. I hope your wrong and 2 points will be enough for me and the grandson. 
I also remember the good old days when there was not any points but don't recall always drawing a tag. If I remember right they also gave out 2500 tags each year.

If there is a breakdown by points would you please tell me where to find it. Thanks for the help.


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## tallbuck (Apr 30, 2009)

curlycoyote said:


> How did you come up with it will take 3 points. The odds on the link only show how many put in and how many got a tag. I can't find any breakdown by points that folks have. Did you find that somewhere. I hope your wrong and 2 points will be enough for me and the grandson.
> I also remember the good old days when there was not any points but don't recall always drawing a tag. If I remember right they also gave out 2500 tags each year.
> 
> If there is a breakdown by points would you please tell me where to find it. Thanks for the help.


http://wildlife.utah.gov/waterfowl/pdf/2015_swan_odds.pdf

Here are the odds from last year, if you notice the Resident odd's were 1 in 2.9 people. He just rounded up to 3 to make it easy in reading (I am assuming).

Here is the data for all years, just scroll down to "Swans".

http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting-in...point-results-for-past-hunt-applications.html

Also, alot of Antis apply for this tag and that screws up the odds too!

only 2000 tags, not 2500!


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## curlycoyote (Sep 11, 2015)

I think then what you are saying is the numbers just keep building and more and more points are needed. I wish they would show how many are given for each point category like they do for big game.

And I was not saying there are 2500 tags now, my bad, I meant I remember when they did give 2500 but that could be wrong also. :sad:


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## tallbuck (Apr 30, 2009)

curlycoyote said:


> I think then what you are saying is the numbers just keep building and more and more points are needed. I wish they would show how many are given for each point category like they do for big game.
> 
> And I was not saying there are 2500 tags now, my bad, I meant I remember when they did give 2500 but that could be wrong also. :sad:


I would agree, it sure sucks! More water fowlers in the marsh over the past 5 years sure doesn't help odds either.

I remember a time when i drew my swan tags 4 years in a row. Now i have two points. Looking at the odds I dont think the stars will align this year either.


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

The good old days of paper applications and $5 fee. Yes, you actually had to use a pen to fill out the form (some people could even write in cursive back then) put a stamp on it and drop it in the mail.


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## Clarq (Jul 21, 2011)

tallbuck said:


> I remember a time when i drew my swan tags 4 years in a row. Now i have two points. Looking at the odds I dont think the stars will align this year either.


I wouldn't give up just yet if I were you.

Think about it this way. What if we all started over with no points? Let's assume the same 6000 people apply every year.

Year 1:

6000 people with 0 points

Year 2:

4000 people with 1 point
2000 people with 0 points

Year 3:

2000 people with 2 points
2000 people with 1 point
2000 people with 0 points

Year 4:

2000 people with 2 points
2000 people with 1 point
2000 people with 0 points

In this (contrived) scenario, it would never take more than 2 points to draw. I assume the swan draw has probably reached a fairly similar equilibrium, with overall odds getting slightly worse each year. It's true that we will always have a few applicants with 3+ points, and there are also youth tags, so there may be some that don't draw with two points.

Though it may not guarantee you a tag, I have to think that two points will give you a very good chance of drawing this year. The possibility of drawing with one point may not be out of the question either, but the odds of that happening can't be good. I may as well try.


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## JuniorPre 360 (Feb 22, 2012)

I'm putting in this year with 3 points. If I don't draw, I'll have 4.



Fowlmouth said:


> The good old days of paper applications and $5 fee. Yes, you actually had to use a pen to fill out the form (some people could even write in cursive back then) put a stamp on it and drop it in the mail.


Did you ever have the chance to shoot one on Public Shooting Grounds before it was closed to swan hunting?


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## Fowlmouth (Oct 4, 2008)

JuniorPre 360 said:


> I'm putting in this year with 3 points. If I don't draw, I'll have 4.
> 
> Did you ever have the chance to shoot one on Public Shooting Grounds before it was closed to swan hunting?


Nope. I have shot them at BRBR, Ogden Bay and Farmington Bay.


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