Expo Application Strategies - Utah Wildlife Network

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Old 02-11-2017, 01:23 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Expo Application Strategies

There are lots of reasons someone might want to apply for expo tags, and lots of reasons someone might not want to apply for expo tags. We've discussed them on this forum to the point of exhaustion (IMO), and I don't really want to get into them here. If you've decided that you do want to apply for expo tags, however, you may be curious to know that odds for these tags often do NOT follow the same trends in the regular draw.

In the regular draw, we tend to expect that archery tags will have better odds than muzzleloader tags, which will have better odds than rifle tags. For deer, we may expect management tags to have better odds than regular tags. For elk, we generally expect odds for late rifle tags to be better than early rifle tags.

When my dad and I were finalizing our expo tag apps, we set a budget beforehand and then worked to maximize the utility of that budget. Dad decided he would apply for one Book Cliffs elk hunt. When discussing which one, he decided he'd apply for late rifle because the odds would probably be better than for the early rifle season. I looked it up, and that turned out not to be the case. From there, I investigated how many other hunts don't follow what may be our expectations, and this is what I found (based on last year's odds, which, of course, change from year to year):

Notable exceptions:

The following are listed in order from best odds to worst odds:

Deer
- Paunsaugunt: Archery, rifle, management, muzzleloader
- Book Cliffs: Rifle (north), archery, muzzleloader, rifle (south)
- Vernon: Archery, rifle, muzzleloader

Elk
- Book Cliffs: Archery, early rifle, muzzleloader, late rifle
- Cache South: Early rifle, archery, muzzleloader, late rifle
- Manti: Archery, early rifle, late rifle, muzzleloader
- Nebo: Early rifle, archery
- Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lakes: Archery, early rifle, muzzleloader, late rifle
- Southwest Desert: Late rifle, early rifle, archery, muzzleloader
- Wasatch: Archery, muzzleloader, early rifle, late rifle, multi-season

And some general information, if you don't want to dig into the odds (once again listed from best odds to worse odds):

Mountain goat
: Uintas West, Willard Peak

Bison: Late cow, early cow, early bull

On the other OIAL, it's easy because you only get one choice.

Hopefully that's useful to some of you. I know it changed a few of the decisions I was considering.

Good luck, all. Let's see if we can produce a few success stories this year. My dad and I each have roughly 1 in 110 odds of getting our names drawn with the money we spent. I figure with enough similar individuals around, we ought to turn a few up.
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Old 02-11-2017, 03:46 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Um where did you get these numbers to base your odds off of
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Old 02-11-2017, 05:02 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazmat View Post
Um where did you get these numbers to base your odds off of
www.huntexpo.com/odds-at-drawing-an-expo-tag
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Old 02-11-2017, 07:29 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Yes, right there. Thanks, EFA.
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Old 02-11-2017, 08:30 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Very interesting, thanks for the info.
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Old 02-11-2017, 08:34 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Here's a win/win strategy. Ill meet you at the door, you give me your money, in a couple of days Ill tell you were unsuccessful.
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Old 02-13-2017, 08:23 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Wow, drawing odds are great for the non resident tags.
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Old 02-15-2017, 09:36 PM   #8 (permalink)
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I need every advantage I can get to draw... so I study odds myself, but you are a more kind person than me to share that insight with everyone! You deserve to draw! Good luck everyone!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarq View Post
There are lots of reasons someone might want to apply for expo tags, and lots of reasons someone might not want to apply for expo tags. We've discussed them on this forum to the point of exhaustion (IMO), and I don't really want to get into them here. If you've decided that you do want to apply for expo tags, however, you may be curious to know that odds for these tags often do NOT follow the same trends in the regular draw.

In the regular draw, we tend to expect that archery tags will have better odds than muzzleloader tags, which will have better odds than rifle tags. For deer, we may expect management tags to have better odds than regular tags. For elk, we generally expect odds for late rifle tags to be better than early rifle tags.

When my dad and I were finalizing our expo tag apps, we set a budget beforehand and then worked to maximize the utility of that budget. Dad decided he would apply for one Book Cliffs elk hunt. When discussing which one, he decided he'd apply for late rifle because the odds would probably be better than for the early rifle season. I looked it up, and that turned out not to be the case. From there, I investigated how many other hunts don't follow what may be our expectations, and this is what I found (based on last year's odds, which, of course, change from year to year):

Notable exceptions:

The following are listed in order from best odds to worst odds:

Deer
- Paunsaugunt: Archery, rifle, management, muzzleloader
- Book Cliffs: Rifle (north), archery, muzzleloader, rifle (south)
- Vernon: Archery, rifle, muzzleloader

Elk
- Book Cliffs: Archery, early rifle, muzzleloader, late rifle
- Cache South: Early rifle, archery, muzzleloader, late rifle
- Manti: Archery, early rifle, late rifle, muzzleloader
- Nebo: Early rifle, archery
- Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lakes: Archery, early rifle, muzzleloader, late rifle
- Southwest Desert: Late rifle, early rifle, archery, muzzleloader
- Wasatch: Archery, muzzleloader, early rifle, late rifle, multi-season

And some general information, if you don't want to dig into the odds (once again listed from best odds to worse odds):

Mountain goat
: Uintas West, Willard Peak

Bison: Late cow, early cow, early bull

On the other OIAL, it's easy because you only get one choice.

Hopefully that's useful to some of you. I know it changed a few of the decisions I was considering.

Good luck, all. Let's see if we can produce a few success stories this year. My dad and I each have roughly 1 in 110 odds of getting our names drawn with the money we spent. I figure with enough similar individuals around, we ought to turn a few up.
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Old 02-16-2017, 07:07 AM   #9 (permalink)
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My dad used to always joke around that he's only taking one bullet out hunting, because one bullet is all it takes. My strategy is similar to that. I do not do it on the computer beforehand. But I go, and use my Jedi chi to determine which hunt on that paper is mine. I apply for that hunt. $5 is all I'm doing. Wish me luck, even though I won't need it. I'll just use science.
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Old 02-16-2017, 07:25 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanilla View Post
My dad used to always joke around that he's only taking one bullet out hunting, because one bullet is all it takes. My strategy is similar to that. I do not do it on the computer beforehand. But I go, and use my Jedi chi to determine which hunt on that paper is mine. I apply for that hunt. $5 is all I'm doing. Wish me luck, even though I won't need it. I'll just use science.
Sounds fine, except for the fact that it requires waiting in a longer line.

It's funny, I schemed and I planned for quite awhile about what my application strategy would be. Thought I had it figured out... but when I was filling it out I made two impulsive changes. Book Cliffs deer instead of Henry Mountains, and Wasatch Multi-season instead of Cache North. Hopefully I've got some of that chi stuff working for me.

I have way too much fun with this stuff... heading up to validate today.
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